Development and validation of a risk prediction model and prediction tools for post-thrombotic syndrome in patients with lower limb deep vein thrombosis

PURPOSE

Our research aims to compare the predictive performance of decision tree algorithms (DT) and logistic regression analysis (LR) in constructing models, and develop a Post-Thrombotic Syndrome (PTS) risk stratification tool.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected and analyzed relevant case information of 618 patients diagnosed with DVT from January 2012 to December 2021 in three different tertiary hospitals in Jiangxi Province as the modeling group. Additionally, we used the case information of 212 patients diagnosed with DVT from January 2022 to January 2023 in two tertiary hospitals in Hubei Province and Guangdong Province as the validation group. We extracted electronic medical record information including general patient data, medical history, laboratory test indicators, and treatment data for analysis. We established DT and LR models and compared their predictive performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and confusion matrices. Internal and external validations were conducted. Additionally, we utilized LR to generate nomogram charts, calibration curves, and decision curves analysis (DCA) to assess its predictive accuracy.

RESULTS

Both DT and LR models indicate that Year, Residence, Cancer, Varicose Vein Operation History, DM, and Chronic VTE are risk factors for PTS occurrence. In internal validation, DT outperforms LR (0.962 vs 0.925, z = 3.379, P < 0.001). However, in external validation, there is no significant difference in the area under the ROC curve between the two models (0.963 vs 0.949, z = 0.412, P = 0.680). The validation results of calibration curves and DCA demonstrate that LR exhibits good predictive accuracy and clinical effectiveness. A web-based calculator software of nomogram (https://sunxiaoxuan.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/) was utilized to visualize the logistic regression model.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of decision tree and logistic regression models, along with the web-based calculator software of nomogram, can assist healthcare professionals in accurately assessing the risk of PTS occurrence in individual patients with lower limb DVT.

Cracking the silent gallstone code: Wait or operate?

The widespread availability of abdominal ultrasound has revealed the common occurrence of asymptomatic gallstones. While the treatment for symptomatic gallstones is clear, the benefits of minimally invasive laparoscopic cholecystectomy have sparked debate about the best approach to managing silent gallstones. The potential for asymptomatic gallstones to become symptomatic or lead to complications complicates the decision-making process regarding surgical intervention, as it's uncertain when or which patients might develop complications. Consequently, risk stratification appears to play a critical role in guiding decisions about silent gallstones. However, there is no definitive evidence to direct management, and a consensus-based on high-quality evidence is yet to be established.

S2I2N0-3 score predicts short- and long-term mortality and morbidity in HFrEF: a post-hoc analysis of the GUIDE-IT trial

AIMS

This study investigated the S2I2N0-3 score, a simple tool comprising stroke history, insulin-treated diabetes, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, for forecasting mortality and morbidity in heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Analysing 890 GUIDE-IT HFrEF trial participants, we stratified them by baseline S2I2N0-3 risk score into three risk groups. We examined the score's association with five adverse outcomes over short (90 days) and extended periods (median follow-up of 15 months) using Cox and competing risk models. Our analysis revealed significant positive associations between the S2I2N0-3 strata and adverse outcomes. When analysed as a continuous variable, each point increment of the S2I2N0-3 score was associated with a higher risk of short- and long-term cardiovascular death [short term: hazard ratio (HR) 1.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.98; long term: HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.02-1.38], all-cause death (HR 1.52, 95% CI 1.12-2.07; HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.03-1.36), HF hospitalization (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.20-1.62; HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.06-1.31), any hospitalization (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.06-1.34; HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.00-1.19), and the composite outcome of cardiovascular death and HF hospitalization (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.21-1.60; HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.06-1.30). The S2I2N0-3 demonstrated reliable prognostic value, with C-indices ranging from 0.619 to 0.753 across outcomes and time points. When compared with the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) score using Z-statistics, net reclassification index, and integrated discrimination improvement, the S2I2N0-3 showed comparable predictive power for all outcomes during both short- and long-term follow-ups.

CONCLUSIONS

The S2I2N0-3 risk score had modest predictive values for both short- and long-term clinical outcomes in HFrEF patients, offering equivalent performance to the established MAGGIC score.

Adherence to heart failure treatment in patients with peripartum cardiomyopathy

AIMS

Peripartum cardiomyopathy (PPCM) is characterized by left ventricular (LV) dysfunction developing towards the end of pregnancy or in the first months postpartum. Although about 60% of women with PPCM (the majority of which are prescribed evidence based heart failure [HF] medications) show LV recovery within 6 to 12 months, others remain with persistently impaired LV function. Poor adherence to medical therapy represents a major cause of avoidable hospitalizations, disability, and death in other cardiovascular conditions. In this study, we aimed to determine drug adherence to HF therapy among women with PPCM and to identify possible associations between drug adherence and LV recovery, functional status and psychological well-being.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In this single-centre, prospective, observational study, we included 36 consecutive women with PPCM. Adherence to HF treatment was assessed by (i) verifying the collection of pharmacy refills and (ii) using liquid chromatography high-resolution mass spectrometry (LC-HRMS). Participants were thereby classified as 'adherent' (i.e. all prescribed HF drugs were detectable by LC-HRMS), 'partially adherent' (i.e. at least one prescribed drug detectable) or 'non-adherent' (i.e. none of the prescribed drugs detectable). Health state index scores were assessed by EQ-5D-5L and HADS-A/D (for anxiety/depression). Patients' median age was 32.4 years (IQR 27.6-36.1). At the adherence visit (which occurred at a median of 16 months [IQR 5-45] after PPCM diagnosis), prescription included beta-blockers (77.8%), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin II receptor blockers (75%), mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (47.2%) and loop diuretics (95.2%). Less than two thirds of patients (63.9%) collected all their pharmacy refills in the 6 months prior to adherence visit. According to LC-HRMS, 23.5% participants were classified as adherent, 53.0% as partially adherent, and 23.5% as non-adherent. Adherence was associated with significantly lower LVEDD at follow-up (47 mm [IQR 46-52), vs. 56 mm [IQR 49-64] with partial adherence, and 62 mm [IQR 55-64] with non-adherence, P = 0.022), and higher LVEF at follow-up (60% [IQR 41-65]), vs. partially adherence (46% [IQR 34-50]) and non-adherence (41.0% [IQR 29-47], P = 014). Adherent patients had a lower overall EQ- 5D score (5.5 [IQR 5-7.5], vs. 6 [IQR 5-7] in partially adherent, and 10 [IQR 8-15] in non-adherent patients, P = 0.032) suggestive of a better self-rated health status.

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence to HF therapy was associated with favourable LV reverse remodelling in PPCM and better self-rated health status. Our study highlights the importance of drug adherence for functional recovery. Drug adherence should be an important component of patient communication and specific interventions in PPCM.

Risk scores for prediction of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation after acute ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Detection of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) is crucial for secondary prevention in patients with recent strokes of unknown etiology. This systematic review and meta-analysis assess the predictive power of available risk scores for detecting new PAF after acute ischemic stroke (AIS).

Methods

PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched until September 2023 to identify relevant studies. A bivariate random effects meta-analysis model pooled data on sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) for each score. The QUADAS-2 tool was used for the quality assessment.

Results

Eventually, 21 studies with 18 original risk scores were identified. Age, left atrial enlargement, and NIHSS score were the most common predictive factors, respectively. Seven risk scores were meta-analyzed, with iPAB showing the highest pooled sensitivity and AUC (sensitivity: 89.4%, specificity: 74.2%, AUC: 0.83), and HAVOC having the highest pooled specificity (sensitivity: 46.3%, specificity: 82.0%, AUC: 0.82). Altogether, seven risk scores displayed good discriminatory power (AUC ≥0.80) with four of them (HAVOC, iPAB, Fujii, and MVP scores) being externally validated.

Conclusion

Available risk scores demonstrate moderate to good predictive accuracy and can help identify patients who would benefit from extended cardiac monitoring after AIS. External validation is essential before widespread clinical adoption.

The impact of an increased Fibrosis-4 index and the severity of hepatic steatosis on mortality in individuals living with diabetes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Data on the effects of liver fibrosis and hepatic steatosis on outcomes in individuals living with diabetes are limited. Therefore, we investigated the predictive value of the fibrosis and the severity of hepatic steatosis for all-cause mortality in individuals living with diabetes.

METHODS

A total of 1903 patients with diabetes from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) dataset were enrolled. Presumed hepatic fibrosis was evaluated with Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4). The mortality risk and corresponding hazard ratio (HR) were analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 19.4 years, all-cause deaths occurred in 69.6%. FIB-4 ≥ 1.3 was an independent predictor of mortality in individuals living with diabetes (HR 1.219, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.067-1.392, p = 0.004). Overall, FIB-4 ≥ 1.3 without moderate-severe steatosis increased the mortality risk (HR 1.365; 95%CI 1.147-1.623, p < 0.001). The similar results were found in individuals living with diabetes with metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) (HR 1.499; 95%CI 1.065-2.110, p = 0.020), metabolic syndrome (MetS) (HR 1.397; 95%CI 1.086-1.796, p = 0.009) or abdominal obesity (HR 1.370; 95%CI 1.077-1.742, p = 0.010).

CONCLUSIONS

Liver fibrosis, as estimated by FIB-4, may serve as a more reliable prognostic indicator for individuals living with diabetes than hepatic steatosis. Individuals living with diabetes with FIB-4 ≥ 1.3 without moderate-severe steatosis had a significantly increased all-cause mortality risk. These findings highlight the importance of identifying and monitoring those individuals, as they may benefit from further evaluation and risk stratification.

Heart/breathing rate ratio (HBR) as a predictor of mortality in critically ill patients

Objectives

The early prediction of death is a challenge for medical staff. We evaluated the ability of the heart/breathing rate ratio (HBR) to predict mortality.

Methods

This was a single-center retrospective observational study of adult patients who had fever with or without respiratory symptoms, who survived at least 2 h after visiting the hospital, and whose lactate levels and vital signs were tested. We evaluated the distribution of mortality at different HBR levels and compared HBR with lactate.

Results

A total of 18,872 fever clinic visits were screened, and 183 patients whose lactate levels were tested were recruited. Patients who had HBR values lower than 4·5 or higher than 5·5 had greater mortality than patients who had HBR values between 4·5 and 5·5 (21·3 % vs. 3·4 %, p = 0·003; 28·9 % vs. 3·4 %, p < 0·001, respectively). In patients whose HBR was <5, the AUROC for HBR for mortality was 0·762 (95 % CI: 0.643-0·880), and that for lactate was 0·701 (95 % CI: 0·564-0·837). In patients whose HBR was ≥5, the AUROC for HBR for mortality was 0·721 (95 % CI: 0·584-0·857), and that for lactate was 0·742 (95 % CI: 0·607-0·848).

Conclusions

HBR is helpful for stratifying mortality risk among critically ill patients in acute care clinics for infectious diseases.

Development and validation of a new prognostic model for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure in intensive care unit

BACKGROUND

Cirrhotic patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in the intensive care unit (ICU) have a poor but variable prognoses. Accurate prognosis evaluation can guide the rational management of patients with ACLF. However, existing prognostic scores for ACLF in the ICU environment lack sufficient accuracy.

AIM

To develop a new prognostic model for patients with ACLF in ICU.

METHODS

Data from 938 ACLF patients in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) database were used to develop a new prognostic model (MIMIC ACLF) for ACLF. Discrimination, calibration and clinical utility of MIMIC ACLF were assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA), respectively. MIMIC ACLF was then externally validated in a multiple-center cohort, the Electronic Intensive Care Collaborative Research Database and a single-center cohort from the Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University in China.

RESULTS

The MIMIC ACLF score was determined using nine variables: ln (age) × 2.2 + ln (white blood cell count) × 0.22 - ln (mean arterial pressure) × 2.7 + respiratory failure × 0.6 + renal failure × 0.51 + cerebral failure × 0.31 + ln (total bilirubin) × 0.44 + ln (internationalized normal ratio) × 0.59 + ln (serum potassium) × 0.59. In MIMIC cohort, the AUROC (0.81/0.79) for MIMIC ACLF for 28/90-day ACLF mortality were significantly greater than those of Chronic Liver Failure Consortium ACLF (0.76/0.74), Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD; 0.73/0.71) and MELD-Na (0.72/0.70) (all P < 0.001). The consistency between actual and predicted 28/90-day survival rates of patients according to MIMIC ACLF score was excellent and superior to that of existing scores. The net benefit of MIMIC ACLF was greater than that achieved using existing scores within the 50% threshold probability. The superior predictive accuracy and clinical utility of MIMIC ACLF were validated in the external cohorts.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated a new prognostic model with satisfactory accuracy for cirrhotic patients with ACLF hospitalized in the ICU. The model-based risk stratification and online calculator might facilitate the rational management of patients with ACLF.

Usefulness of risk assessment tools in predicting hemodynamic outcome after balloon pulmonary angioplasty: a comparative analysis

OBJECTIVES

Several parameters of widely used risk assessment tools for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) have been linked to hemodynamic outcomes of balloon pulmonary angioplasty (BPA). Therefore, we aimed to determine whether these risk assessment tools could be used to predict hemodynamic outcomes following BPA.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, we included 139 patients with chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension who had undergone BPA. We compared the accuracies of seven well-validated risk assessment tools for predicting hemodynamic outcomes following BPA. A favorable hemodynamic outcome was defined as a mean pulmonary arterial pressure <30 mmHg at follow-up.

RESULTS

The baseline risk profiles varied significantly among the risk assessment tools. The US Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management risk scales and the French risk assessment tools rated most patients as high-risk, while the Comparative, Prospective Registry of Newly Initiated Therapies for Pulmonary Hypertension (COMPERA) series and laboratory examination-based risk scales categorized most patients as having intermediate-risk. COMPERA 2.0 (4-strata) exhibited the highest predictive power among all risk stratifications. Noninvasive risk stratification (COMPERA 2.0 [3-strata]) showed a comparable predictive ability to that of invasive risk stratification (COMPERA 1.0) (area under the curve 0.649 vs. 0.648). Moreover, incorporating diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide and tricuspid regurgitation velocity into COMPERA 2.0 (4-strata) further enhanced its predictive power (net reclassification index 0.153, 95% confidence interval 0.009-0.298, p = 0.038). Additionally, this refined COMPERA version had a high calibration accuracy (slope 0.96).

CONCLUSION

Although the risk strata distribution varied among different risk assessment tools, the proportion of patients achieving favorable hemodynamics decreased with the escalation of risk stratification in most models. The well-validated risk assessment tools for PAH could also predict hemodynamic outcomes following BPA, and the refined COMPERA 2.0 model exhibited the highest predictive ability among these. Applying risk assessment tools before BPA can facilitate early identification of patients in need of closer monitoring and more intensive interventions, contributing to a better prognosis after BPA.

Refining Risk Stratification of High-risk and Locoregional Prostate Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of Randomized Trials

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Radiotherapy (RT) and long-term androgen deprivation therapy (ltADT; 18-36 mo) is a standard of care in the treatment of high-risk localized/locoregional prostate cancer (HRLPC). We evaluated the outcomes in patients treated with RT + ltADT to identify which patients have poorer prognosis with standard therapy.

METHODS

Individual patient data from patients with HRLPC (as defined by any of the following three risk factors [RFs] in the context of cN0 disease-Gleason score ≥8, cT3-4, and prostate-specific antigen [PSA] >20 ng/ml, or cN1 disease) treated with RT and ltADT in randomized controlled trials collated by the Intermediate Clinical Endpoints in Cancer of the Prostate group. The outcome measures of interest were metastasis-free survival (MFS), overall survival (OS), time to metastasis, and prostate cancer-specific mortality. Multivariable Cox and Fine-Gray regression estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for the three RFs and cN1 disease.

KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS

A total of 3604 patients from ten trials were evaluated, with a median PSA value of 24 ng/ml. Gleason score ≥8 (MFS HR = 1.45; OS HR = 1.42), cN1 disease (MFS HR = 1.86; OS HR = 1.77), cT3-4 disease (MFS HR = 1.28; OS HR = 1.22), and PSA >20 ng/ml (MFS HR = 1.30; OS HR = 1.21) were associated with poorer outcomes. Adjusted 5-yr MFS rates were 83% and 78%, and 10-yr MFS rates were 63% and 53% for patients with one and two to three RFs, respectively; corresponding 10-yr adjusted OS rates were 67% and 60%, respectively. In cN1 patients, adjusted 5- and 10-yr MFS rates were 67% and 36%, respectively, and 10-yr OS was 47%.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

HRLPC patients with two to three RFs (and cN0) or cN1 disease had the poorest outcomes on RT and ltADT. This will help in counseling patients treated in routine practice and in guiding adjuvant trials in HRLPC.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Radiotherapy and long-term hormone therapy are standard treatments for high-risk and locoregional prostate cancer. In this report, we defined prognostic groups within high-risk/locoregional prostate cancer and showed that outcomes to standard therapy are poorest in those with two or more "high-risk" factors or evidence of lymph node involvement. Such patients may therefore be the best candidates for intensification of treatment.

The acceptability and clinical impact of using polygenic scores for risk-estimation of common cancers in primary care: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Polygenic scores (PGS) have been developed for cancer risk-estimation and show potential as tools to prompt earlier referral for high-risk individuals and aid risk-stratification within cancer screening programmes. This review explores the potential for using PGS to identify individuals at risk of the most common cancers seen in primary care.

METHODS

Two electronic databases were searched up until November 2023 to identify quantitative, qualitative, and mixed methods studies that reported on the acceptability and clinical impact of using PGS to identify individuals at highest risk of breast, prostate, colorectal and lung cancer in primary care. The Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT) was used to assess the quality of included studies and a narrative synthesis was used to analyse data.

RESULTS

A total of 190 papers were identified, 18 of which were eligible for inclusion. A cancer risk-assessment tool incorporating PGS was acceptable to the general practice population and their healthcare providers but major challenges to implementation were identified, including lack of evidence for PGS in non-European ancestry and a need for healthcare provider education in genomic medicine. A PGS cancer risk-assessment had relatively limited impact on psychosocial outcomes and health behaviours. However, for prostate cancer, potential applications for its use in primary care were shown.

CONCLUSIONS

Cancer risk assessment incorporating PGS in primary care is acceptable to patients and healthcare providers but there is a paucity of research exploring clinical impact. Few studies were identified, and more research is required before clinical implementation of PGS can be recommended.

Optimal hemodynamic parameters for risk stratification in acute pulmonary embolism patients

Hemodynamic assessment of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) remains a fundamental component of early risk stratification that in turn, influences subsequent monitoring and therapeutic strategies. The current body of literature and international evidence-based clinical practice guidelines focus mainly on the use of systolic blood pressure (SBP). The accuracy of this single hemodynamic parameter, however, and its optimal values for the identification of hemodynamic instability have been recently questioned by clinicians. For example, abnormal SBP or shock index may be a late indicator of adverse outcomes, signaling a patient in whom the cascade of hemodynamic compromise is already well underway. The aim of the present article is to review the current evidence supporting the use of SBP and analyze the potential integration of other parameters to assess the hemodynamic stability, impending clinical deterioration, and guide the reperfusion treatment in patients with PE, as well as to suggest potential strategies to further investigate this issue.

Effectiveness of a Prostacyclin IP Receptor Agonist in Patients With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension in the Real-world Andalusian Setting: The RAMPHA Study

PURPOSE

The pillar for therapeutic decisions in the evolution of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is the patients' prognostic stratification.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in a Spanish real-world setting to assess the clinical improvement of PAH patients treated with selexipag measured as changes in the risk profile. Secondary objectives were to describe their baseline characteristics, initial risk status, and variables used to assess patient survival and adverse events.

FINDINGS

Total 42 patients (mean age 52.36 [SD: 15.09] years) were included. All had received initial endothelin receptor antagonist treatment and 95.2% dual therapy with phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitor or riociguat. At 6 to 12 months from baseline, patients risk stratification tripled the percentage of patients with low risk, and a trend towards improved risk stratification (P = 0.122). World Health Organization functional class changed, with more patients in milder classes (P = 0.003), and symptom progression slowed down (P < 0.0001). At 3-years, survival was 85.7% and the estimated median survival time was 2.73 years (SD: 1.351; 95% CI: 2.51-2.95).

IMPLICATIONS

Selexipag did not achieve a significant improvement in risk profile, although it did show an excellent survival rate, effectively improved functional class, and delayed symptom progression in real life. Selexipag was well tolerated and showed a favorable safety profile, supporting a clinical benefit for PAH patients.

Space research to explore novel biochemical insights on Earth

Travel to space has overcome unprecedent technological challenges and this has resulted in transfer of these technological results on Earth to better our lives. Health technology, medical devices, and research advancements in human biology are the first beneficiaries of this transfer. The real breakthrough came with the International Space Station, which endorsed multidisciplinary international scientific collaborations and boosted the research on pathophysiological adaptation of astronauts to life on space. These studies evidenced that life in space appeared to have exposed the astronauts to an accelerated aging-related pathophysiological dysregulation across multiple systems. In this review we emphasize the interaction between several biomarkers and their alteration in concentrations/expression/function by space stress factors. These altered interactions, suggest that different biochemical and hormonal factors, and cell signals, contribute to a complex network of pathophysiological mechanisms, orchestrating the homeostatic dysregulation of various organs/metabolic pathways. The main effects of space travel on altering cell organelles biology, ultrastructure, and cross-talk, have been observed in cell aging as well as in the disruption of metabolic pathways, which are also the causal factor of rare inherited metabolic disorders, one of the major pediatric health issue. The pathophysiologic breakthrough from space research could allow the development of precision health both on Earth and Space by promoting the validation of improved biomarker-based risk scores and the exploration of new pathophysiologic hypotheses and therapeutic targets. Nonstandard abbreviations: International Space Station (ISS), Artificial Intelligence (AI), European Space Agency (ESA), National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA), Low Earth Orbit (LEO), high sensitive troponin (hs-cTn), high sensitive troponin I (hs-cTn I), high sensitive troponin T, Brain Natriuretic Peptide (BNP), N terminal Brain Natriuretic Peptide (NT-BNP), cardiovascular disease (CVD), parathyroid hormone (PTH), urinary hydroxyproline (uHP), urinary C- and N-terminal telopeptides (uCTX and uNTX), pyridinoline (PYD), deoxypyridinoline (DPD), half-time (HF), serum Bone Alkaline Phosphatase (sBSAP), serum Alkaline Phosphatase (sAP), Carboxy-terminal Propeptide of Type 1 Procollagen (P1CP), serum Osteocalcin (sOC)), advanced glycation end products (AGEs), glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), Insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1), Growth Hormone (GH), amino acid (AA), β-hydroxy-β methyl butyrate (HMB), maple syrup urine disease (MSUD), non-communicable diseases (NCDs).

Unlocking the complete blood count as a risk stratification tool for breast cancer using machine learning: a large scale retrospective study

Optimizing early breast cancer (BC) detection requires effective risk assessment tools. This retrospective study from Brazil showcases the efficacy of machine learning in discerning complex patterns within routine blood tests, presenting a globally accessible and cost-effective approach for risk evaluation. We analyzed complete blood count (CBC) tests from 396,848 women aged 40-70, who underwent breast imaging or biopsies within six months after their CBC test. Of these, 2861 (0.72%) were identified as cases: 1882 with BC confirmed by anatomopathological tests, and 979 with highly suspicious imaging (BI-RADS 5). The remaining 393,987 participants (99.28%), with BI-RADS 1 or 2 results, were classified as controls. The database was divided into modeling (including training and validation) and testing sets based on diagnostic certainty. The testing set comprised cases confirmed by anatomopathology and controls cancer-free for 4.5-6.5 years post-CBC. Our ridge regression model, incorporating neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, red blood cells, and age, achieved an AUC of 0.64 (95% CI 0.64-0.65). We also demonstrate that these results are slightly better than those from a boosting machine learning model, LightGBM, plus having the benefit of being fully interpretable. Using the probabilistic output from this model, we divided the study population into four risk groups: high, moderate, average, and low risk, which obtained relative ratios of BC of 1.99, 1.32, 1.02, and 0.42, respectively. The aim of this stratification was to streamline prioritization, potentially improving the early detection of breast cancer, particularly in resource-limited environments. As a risk stratification tool, this model offers the potential for personalized breast cancer screening by prioritizing women based on their individual risk, thereby indicating a shift from a broad population strategy.

Deep Learning Features and Metabolic Tumor Volume Based on PET/CT to Construct Risk Stratification in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

To build a risk stratification by incorporating PET/CT-based deep learning features and whole-body metabolic tumor volume (MTVwb), which was to make predictions about overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) for those with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) as a complement to the TNM staging.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study enrolled 590 patients with NSCLC (413 for training and 177 for testing). Features were extracted by employing a convolutional neural network. The combined risk stratification (CRS) was constructed by the selected features and MTVwb, which were contrasted and integrated with TNM staging. In the testing set, those were verified.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis revealed that CRS was an independent predictor of OS and PFS. C-indexes of the CRS demonstrated statistically significant increases in comparison to TNM staging, excepting predicting OS in the testing set (for OS, C-index=0.71 vs. 0.691 in the training set and 0.73 vs. 0.736 in the testing set; for PFS, C-index=0.702 vs. 0.686 in the training set and 0.732 vs. 0.71 in the testing set). The nomogram that combined CRS with TNM staging demonstrated the most superior model performance in the training and testing sets (C-index=0.741 and 0.771).

CONCLUSION

The addition of CRS improves TNM staging's predictive power and shows potential as a useful tool to support physicians in making treatment decisions.

A nomogram based on nutritional and inflammatory parameters to predict DMFS and identify beneficiaries of adjuvant chemotherapy in IVA-stage nasopharyngeal carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to develop a nomogram integrating inflammation (NLR), Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI), and EBV DNA (tumor burden) to achieve personalized treatment and prediction for stage IVA NPC. Furthermore, it endeavors to pinpoint specific subgroups that may derive significant benefits from S-1 adjuvant chemotherapy.

METHODS

A total of 834 patients diagnosed with stage IVA NPC were enrolled in this study and randomly allocated into training and validation cohorts. Multivariate Cox analyses were conducted to identify independent prognostic factors for constructing the nomogram. The predictive and clinical utility of the nomogram was assessed through measures including the AUC, calibration curve, DCA, and C-indexes. IPTW was employed to balance baseline characteristics across the population. Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank tests were utilized to evaluate the prognostic value.

RESULTS

In our study, we examined the clinical features of 557 individuals from the training cohort and 277 from the validation cohort. The median follow-up period was 50.1 and 49.7 months, respectively. For the overall cohort, the median follow-up duration was 53.8 months. The training and validation sets showed 3-year OS rates of 87.7% and 82.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, the 3-year DMFS rates were 95.9% and 84.3%, respectively. We created a nomogram that combined PNI, NRI, and EBV DNA, resulting in high prediction accuracy. Risk stratification demonstrated substantial variations in DMFS and OS between the high and low risk groups. Patients in the high-risk group benefited significantly from the IC + CCRT + S-1 treatment. In contrast, IC + CCRT demonstrated non-inferior 3-year DMFS and OS compared to IC + CCRT + S-1 in the low-risk population, indicating the possibility of reducing treatment intensity.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, our nomogram integrating NLR, PNI, and EBV DNA offers precise prognostication for stage IVA NPC. S-1 adjuvant chemotherapy provides notable benefits for high-risk patients, while treatment intensity reduction may be feasible for low-risk individuals.

Assessing the Clinical Utility of Published Prostate Cancer Polygenic Risk Scores in a Large Biobank Data Set

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been developed to identify men with the highest risk of prostate cancer. Our aim was to compare the performance of 16 PRSs in identifying men at risk of developing prostate cancer and then to evaluate the performance of the top-performing PRSs in differentiating individuals at risk of aggressive prostate cancer.

METHODS

For this case-control study we downloaded 16 published PRSs from the Polygenic Score Catalog on May 28, 2021 and applied them to Michigan Genomics Initiative (MGI) patients. Cases were matched to the Michigan Urological Surgery Improvement Collaborative (MUSIC) registry to obtain granular clinical and pathological data. MGI prospectively enrolls patients undergoing surgery at the University of Michigan, and MUSIC is a multi-institutional registry that prospectively tracks demographic, treatment, and clinical variables. The predictive performance of each PRS was evaluated using the area under the covariate-adjusted receiver operating characteristic curve (aAUC), and the association between PRS and disease aggressiveness according to prostate biopsy data was measured using logistic regression.

KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS

We included 18 050 patients in the analysis, of whom 15 310 were control subjects and 2740 were prostate cancer cases. The median age was 66.1 yr (interquartile range 59.9-71.6) for cases and 56.6 yr (interquartile range 42.6-66.7) for control subjects. The PRS performance in predicting the risk of developing prostate cancer according to aAUC ranged from 0.51 (95% confidence interval 0.51-0.53) to 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.68). By contrast, there was no association between PRS and disease aggressiveness.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

Prostate cancer PRSs have modest real-world performance in identifying patients at higher risk of developing prostate cancer; however, they are limited in distinguishing patients with indolent versus aggressive disease.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Risk scores using data for multiple genes (called polygenic risk scores) can identify men at higher risk of developing prostate cancer. However, these scores need to be refined to be able to identify men with the highest risk for clinically significant prostate cancer.

Preoperative Risk Stratification for Gastric Cancer: The Establishment of Dual-Energy CT-Based Radiomics Using Prospective Datasets at Two Centers

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the performance of dual-energy CT (DECT)-based radiomics models for identifying high-risk histopathologic phenotypes-serosal invasion (pT4a), lymph node metastasis (LNM), lymphovascular invasion (LVI) and perineural invasion (PNI) in gastric cancer.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This prospective bi-center study recruited histologically confirmed gastric adenocarcinoma patients who underwent triple-phase enhanced DECT before gastrectomy between January 2021 and July 2023. Radiomics features were extracted from polychromatic/monochromatic (40 keV, 100 keV)/iodine images at arterial/venous/delay phase, respectively. Predictive features were selected in the training dataset using logistic regression classifier, and trained models were applied to the external validation dataset. Performances of clinical models, conventional contrast enhanced CT (CECT) models and DECT models were evaluated using areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs).

RESULTS

In total, 503 patients were recruited: 396 at training dataset (60.1 ± 10.8 years, 110 females, 286 males) and 107 at validation dataset (61.4 ± 9.5 years, 29 females, 78 males). DECT models dichotomizing pT4a, LNM, LVI, and PNI achieved AUCs of 0.891, 0.817, 0.834, and 0.889, respectively, in the validation dataset, similar with the CECT models. In the training dataset, compared to the CECT model, the DECT model provided increased performance for identifying pT4a, LNM, LVI (all P＜0.05), and similar performance for stratifying PNI (P = 0.104). The DECT models was associated with patient disease-free survival (all P＜0.05).

CONCLUSION

DECT radiomics can stratify patients preoperatively according to high-risk histopathologic phenotypes for gastric cancer and are associated with patient disease-free survival in the training dataset.

Angulation and curvature of aortic landing zone affect implantation depth in transcatheter aortic valve implantation

In transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI), final device position may be affected by device interaction with the whole aortic landing zone (LZ) extending to ascending aorta. We investigated the impact of aortic LZ curvature and angulation on TAVI implantation depth, comparing short-frame balloon-expanding (BE) and long-frame self-expanding (SE) devices. Patients (n = 202) treated with BE or SE devices were matched based on one-to-one propensity score. Primary endpoint was the mismatch between the intended (HPre) and the final (HPost) implantation depth. LZ curvature and angulation were calculated based on the aortic centerline trajectory available from pre-TAVI computed tomography. Total LZ curvature ( k L Z , t o t ) and LZ angulation distal to aortic annulus ( α L Z , D i s t a l ) were greater in the SE compared to the BE group (P < 0.001 for both). In the BE group, HPost was significantly higher than HPre at both cusps (P < 0.001). In the SE group, HPost was significantly deeper than HPre only at the left coronary cusp (P = 0.013). At multivariate analysis, α L Z , D i s t a l was the only independent predictor (OR = 1.11, P = 0.002) of deeper final implantation depth with a cut-off value of 17.8°. Aortic LZ curvature and angulation significantly affected final TAVI implantation depth, especially in high stent-frame SE devices reporting, upon complete release, deeper implantation depth with respect to the intended one.

Performance of the European Society of Cardiology 0/1-hour algorithm with high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T at 90 days among patients with known coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND

The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) 0/1-h high sensitivity troponin T (hs-cTnT) algorithm does not differentiate risk based on known coronary artery disease (CAD: prior myocardial infarction [MI], coronary revascularization, or ≥ 70% coronary stenosis). We recently evaluated its performance among patients with known CAD at 30-days, but little is known about its longer-term risk prediction. The objective of this study is to determine and compare the performance of the algorithm at 90-days among patients with and without known CAD.

METHODS

We performed a pre-planned subgroup analysis of the STOP-CP cohort, which prospectively enrolled ED patients ≥21 years old with symptoms suggestive of ACS without ST-elevation on initial ECG across 8 US sites (1/25/2017-9/6/2018). Participants with 0- and 1-h hs-cTnT measures (Roche, Basel, Switzerland) were stratified into rule-out, observe, and rule-in groups using the ESC 0/1-h algorithm. Algorithm performance was tested among patients with or without known CAD, as determined by the treating provider. The primary outcome was cardiac death or MI at 90-days. Fisher's exact tests were used to compare 90-day event and rule-out rates between patients with and without known CAD. Negative predictive values (NPVs) for 90-day cardiac death or MI with exact 95% confidence intervals were calculated and compared using Fisher's exact test.

RESULTS

The STOP-CP study accrued 1430 patients, of which 31.4% (449/1430) had known CAD. Cardiac death or MI at 90 days was more common in patients with known CAD than in those without [21.2% (95/449) vs. 10.0% (98/981); p < 0.001]. Using the ESC 0/1-h algorithm, 39.6% (178/449) of patients with known CAD and 66.1% (648/981) of patients without known CAD were ruled-out (p < 0.001). Among rule-out patients, 90-day cardiac death or MI occurred in 3.4% (6/178) of patients with known CAD and 1.2% (8/648) without known CAD (p = 0.09). NPV for 90-day cardiac death or MI was 96.6% (95%CI 92.8-98.8) among patients with known CAD and 98.8% (95%CI 97.6-99.5) in patients without known CAD (p = 0.09).

CONCLUSION

Patients with known CAD who were ruled-out using the ESC 0/1-h hs-cTnT algorithm had a high rate of missed 90-day cardiac events, suggesting that the ESC 0/1-h hs-cTnT algorithm may not be safe for use among patients with known CAD.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T to Optimize Chest Pain Risk Stratification (STOP-CP; ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02984436; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02984436).

Circulating metabolomic markers linking diabetic kidney disease and incident cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes: analyses from the Hong Kong Diabetes Biobank

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to describe the metabolome in diabetic kidney disease (DKD) and its association with incident CVD in type 2 diabetes, and identify prognostic biomarkers.

METHODS

From a prospective cohort of individuals with type 2 diabetes, baseline sera (N=1991) were quantified for 170 metabolites using NMR spectroscopy with median 5.2 years of follow-up. Associations of chronic kidney disease (CKD, eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) or severely increased albuminuria with each metabolite were examined using linear regression, adjusted for confounders and multiplicity. Associations between DKD (CKD or severely increased albuminuria)-related metabolites and incident CVD were examined using Cox regressions. Metabolomic biomarkers were identified and assessed for CVD prediction and replicated in two independent cohorts.

RESULTS

At false discovery rate (FDR)<0.05, 156 metabolites were associated with DKD (151 for CKD and 128 for severely increased albuminuria), including apolipoprotein B-containing lipoproteins, HDL, fatty acids, phenylalanine, tyrosine, albumin and glycoprotein acetyls. Over 5.2 years of follow-up, 75 metabolites were associated with incident CVD at FDR<0.05. A model comprising age, sex and three metabolites (albumin, triglycerides in large HDL and phospholipids in small LDL) performed comparably to conventional risk factors (C statistic 0.765 vs 0.762, p=0.893) and adding the three metabolites further improved CVD prediction (C statistic from 0.762 to 0.797, p=0.014) and improved discrimination and reclassification. The 3-metabolite score was validated in independent Chinese and Dutch cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Altered metabolomic signatures in DKD are associated with incident CVD and improve CVD risk stratification.

Improving sudden cardiac death risk stratification in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy using established clinical variables and genetic information

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The cardiac societies of Europe and the United States have established different risk models for preventing sudden cardiac death (SCD) in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). The aim of this study is to validate current SCD risk prediction methods in a German HCM cohort and to improve them by the addition of genotype information.

METHODS

HCM patients without prior SCD or equivalent arrhythmic events ≥ 18 years of age were enrolled in an expert cardiomyopathy center in Germany. The primary endpoint was defined as SCD/-equivalent within 5 years of baseline evaluation. 5-year SCD-risk estimates and recommendations for ICD implantations, as defined by the ESC and AHA/ACC guidelines, were analyzed. Multivariate cox proportional hazards analyses were integrated with genetic findings as additive SCD risk.

RESULTS

283 patients were included and followed for in median 5.77 years (2.92; 8.85). A disease-causing variant was found in 138 (49%) patients. 14 (5%) patients reached the SCD endpoint (5-year incidence 4.9%). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis shows significantly lower overall SCD event-free survival for patients with an identified disease-causing variant (p < 0.05). The ESC HCM Risk-SCD model showed an area-under-the-curve (AUC) of 0.74 (95% CI 0.68-0.79; p < 0.0001) with a sensitivity of 0.29 (95% CI 0.08-0.58) and specificity of 0.83 (95% CI 0.78-0.88) for a risk estimate ≥ 6%/5-years. By comparison, the AHA/ACC HCM SCD risk stratification model showed an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.65-0.76; p = 0.003) with a sensitivity of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.66-0.998) and specificity of 0.28 (95% CI 0.23-0.34) at the respective cut-off. The modified SCD Risk Score with genetic information yielded an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI 0.71-0.81; p < 0.0001) with a sensitivity of 0.86 (95% CI 0.57-0.98) and specificity of 0.69 (95% CI 0.63-0.74). The number-needed-to-treat (NNT) to prevent 1 SCD event by prophylactic ICD-implantation is 13 for the ESC model, 28 for AHA/ACC and 9 for the modified Genotype-model.

CONCLUSION

This study confirms the performance of current risk models in clinical decision making. The integration of genetic findings into current SCD risk stratification methods seem feasible and can add in decision making, especially in borderline risk-groups. A subgroup of patients with high SCD risk remains unidentified by current risk scores.

Prognostic impact of variant histology in bladder cancer: Would early and aggressive treatment shift the paradigm?

INTRODUCTION

Bladder cancer (BC) is an increasingly frequent malignancy worldwide. Several variant histologies (VH) have been described in BC with a distinct clinical behavior.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to assess the prognostic impact of VH in BC, comparing its outcomes to pure urothelial carcinoma PUC in both non-muscle invasive (NMIBC) and muscle-invasive (MIBC) settings.

METHODS

We included patients with primary BC, comparing those with VH with those with PUC, with an age and sex-matched proportion of 1:3, considering stage at diagnosis, recurrence-free, progression-free, and overall survival (OS). A total of 616 patients were included in the study, (460 UC and 151 VH).

RESULTS

After first TURBT, MIBC was present in 99 (64.1%) of patients with VH, and 95 (20.6%) with UC (p<0.001). Concerning NMIBC, we observed higher rates of progression to MIBC amid patients with VH (p=0.009). Nodal involvement (p=0.020) and metastatic disease (p<0.001) were significantly higher within the VH group. A higher OS was observed among patients with NMIBC of PUC (p<0.001). There were no statistically significant differences of metastasis-free survival and OS between VH and UC groups within the MIBC setting.

CONCLUSION

We confirmed that VH presents a more aggressive clinical course compared to PUC. An earlier radical treatment within the NMIBC setting could increase the oncological outcomes of the VH patients.

Validation of a new risk stratification system-based management for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia: analysis of a multicentre prospective study

PURPOSE

Distinguishing between complicated and uncomplicated Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia (SAB) is therapeutically essential. However, this distinction has limitations in reflecting the heterogeneity of SAB and encouraging targeted diagnostics. Recently, a new risk stratification system for SAB metastatic infection, involving stepwise approaches to diagnosis and treatment, has been suggested. We assessed its applicability in methicillin-resistant SAB (MRSAB) patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively analysed data of a 3-year multicentre, prospective cohort of hospitalised patients with MRSAB. We classified the patients into three risk groups: low, indeterminate, and high, based on the new system and compared between-group management and outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 380 patients with MRSAB, 6.3% were classified as low-, 7.6% as indeterminate-, and 86.1% as high-risk for metastatic infection. No metastatic infection occurred in the low-, 6.9% in the indeterminate-, and 19.6% in the high-risk groups (P < 0.001). After an in-depth diagnostic work-up, patients were finally diagnosed as 'without metastatic infection (6.3%)', 'with metastatic infection (17.4%)', and 'uncertain for metastatic infection (76.3%)'. 30-day mortality increased as the severity of diagnosis shifted from 'without metastatic infection' to 'uncertain for metastatic infection' and 'with metastatic infection' (P = 0.09). In multivariable analysis, independent factors associated with metastatic complications were suspicion of endocarditis in transthoracic echocardiography, clinical signs of metastatic infection, Pitt bacteraemia score ≥ 4, and persistent bacteraemia.

CONCLUSIONS

The new risk stratification system shows promise in predicting metastatic complications and guiding work-up and management of MRSAB. However, reducing the number of cases labelled as 'high-risk' and 'uncertain for metastatic infection' remains an area for improvement.

Predictive value of heart rate variability and electrochemical skin conductance measurements for cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy persistence in type 2 diabetes and prediabetes: A 3-year follow-up study

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to explore risk stratification approaches for cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy (CAN) in individuals with prediabetes and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) over a three-year follow-up period.

METHODS

Participants underwent evaluations of autonomic function encompassing cardiovascular autonomic reflex tests (CARTs), baroreflex sensitivity (BRS), heart rate variability (HRV) in time domains (standard deviation of all normal RR intervals (SDNN)) and frequency domains (high frequency/low frequency ratio), and electrochemical skin conductance (ESC). The diagnosis of CAN relied on abnormal CART results. Subjects were categorized into 4 groups, based on their assessment of cardiac autonomic function at 3-year follow-up, relative to the presence or absence of CAN at baseline assessment: Persistent absence of CAN; Resolution of CAN; Progression to CAN; and Persistent CAN.

RESULTS

Participants with T2DM/prediabetes (n = 91/7) were categorized as: Persistent absence of CAN (n = 25), Resolution of CAN (n = 10), Progression to CAN (n = 18), and Persistent CAN (n = 45) groups. The Persistent absence of CAN group showed significant associations with SDNN. The Resolution of CAN group exhibited notable associations with mean HbA1C (follow-up), while the Progression to CAN group displayed a significant link with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate. The Persistent CAN group demonstrated significant associations with SDNN and Sudoscan CAN risk score. Screening recommendations involve biennial to annual assessments based on risk levels, aiding in CAN detection and subsequent comprehensive and time-intensive autonomic function tests for confirmation. The study's findings offer improved risk categorization approaches for detecting CAN, which has relevance for shaping public health strategies.

Imaging Modalities for Assessing the Vascular Component of Diabetic Retinal Disease: Review and Consensus for an Updated Staging System

Purpose

To review the evidence for imaging modalities in assessing the vascular component of diabetic retinal disease (DRD), to inform updates to the DRD staging system.

Design

Standardized narrative review of the literature by an international expert workgroup, as part of the DRD Staging System Update Effort, a project of the Mary Tyler Moore Vision Initiative. Overall, there were 6 workgroups: Vascular Retina, Neural Retina, Systemic Health, Basic and Cellular Mechanisms, Visual Function, and Quality of Life.

Participants

The Vascular Retina workgroup, including 16 participants from 4 countries.

Methods

Literature review was conducted using standardized evidence grids for 5 modalities: standard color fundus photography (CFP), widefield color photography (WFCP), standard fluorescein angiography (FA), widefield FA (WFFA), and OCT angiography (OCTA). Summary levels of evidence were determined on a validated scale from I (highest) to V (lowest). Five virtual workshops were held for discussion and consensus.

Main Outcome Measures

Level of evidence for each modality.

Results

Levels of evidence for standard CFP, WFCP, standard FA, WFFA, and OCTA were I, II, I, I, and II respectively. Traditional vascular lesions on standard CFP should continue to be included in an updated staging system, but more studies are required before they can be used in posttreatment eyes. Widefield color photographs can be used for severity grading within the area covered by standard CFPs, although these gradings may not be directly interchangeable with each other. Evaluation of the peripheral retina on WFCP can be considered, but the method of grading needs to be clarified and validated. Standard FA and WFFA provide independent prognostic value, but the need for dye administration should be considered. OCT angiography has significant potential for inclusion in the DRD staging system, but various barriers need to be addressed first.

Conclusions

This study provides evidence-based recommendations on the utility of various imaging modalities for assessment of the vascular component of DRD, which can inform future updates to the DRD staging system. Although new imaging modalities offer a wealth of information, there are still major gaps and unmet research needs that need to be addressed before this potential can be realized.

Financial Disclosures

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Artificial intelligence for ventricular arrhythmia capability using ambulatory electrocardiograms

Aims

European and American clinical guidelines for implantable cardioverter defibrillators are insufficiently accurate for ventricular arrhythmia (VA) risk stratification, leading to significant morbidity and mortality. Artificial intelligence offers a novel risk stratification lens through which VA capability can be determined from the electrocardiogram (ECG) in normal cardiac rhythm. The aim of this study was to develop and test a deep neural network for VA risk stratification using routinely collected ambulatory ECGs.

Methods and results

A multicentre case-control study was undertaken to assess VA-ResNet-50, our open source ResNet-50-based deep neural network. VA-ResNet-50 was designed to read pyramid samples of three-lead 24 h ambulatory ECGs to decide whether a heart is capable of VA based on the ECG alone. Consecutive adults with VA from East Midlands, UK, who had ambulatory ECGs as part of their NHS care between 2014 and 2022 were recruited and compared with all comer ambulatory electrograms without VA. Of 270 patients, 159 heterogeneous patients had a composite VA outcome. The mean time difference between the ECG and VA was 1.6 years (⅓ ambulatory ECG before VA). The deep neural network was able to classify ECGs for VA capability with an accuracy of 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.87), F1 score of 0.79 (0.67-0.90), area under the receiver operator curve of 0.8 (0.67-0.91), and relative risk of 2.87 (1.41-5.81).

Conclusion

Ambulatory ECGs confer risk signals for VA risk stratification when analysed using VA-ResNet-50. Pyramid sampling from the ambulatory ECGs is hypothesized to capture autonomic activity. We encourage groups to build on this open-source model.

Question

Can artificial intelligence (AI) be used to predict whether a person is at risk of a lethal heart rhythm, based solely on an electrocardiogram (an electrical heart tracing)?

Findings

In a study of 270 adults (of which 159 had lethal arrhythmias), the AI was correct in 4 out of every 5 cases. If the AI said a person was at risk, the risk of lethal event was three times higher than normal adults.

Meaning

In this study, the AI performed better than current medical guidelines. The AI was able to accurately determine the risk of lethal arrhythmia from standard heart tracings for 80% of cases over a year away-a conceptual shift in what an AI model can see and predict. This method shows promise in better allocating implantable shock box pacemakers (implantable cardioverter defibrillators) that save lives.

Value of a multidisciplinary geriatric oncology committee on patient care in a community-based, academic cancer center

INTRODUCTION

The heterogeneity in health and functional ability among older patients makes the management of cancer a unique challenge. The Geriatric Oncology Program at the University of Maryland Baltimore Washington Medical Center (BWMC) was created to optimize cancer management for older patients. This study aimed to assess the benefits of the implementation of such a program at a community-based academic cancer center.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We analyzed patients aged ≥80 years presenting to the Geriatric Oncology Program between 2017 and 2022. A multidisciplinary team of specialists collectively reviewed each patient using geriatric-specific domains and stratified each patient into one of three management groups- Group 1: those deemed fit to receive standard oncologic care (SOC); Group 2: those recommended to receive optimization services prior to reassessment for SOC; and Group 3: those deemed to be best suited for supportive care and/or hospice care.

RESULTS

The study cohort consisted of 233 patients, of which 76 (32.6%) received SOC, 43 (18.5%) were optimized, and 114 (49.0%) received supportive care or hospice referral. Among the optimized patients, 69.8% were deemed fit for SOC upon re-evaluation following their respective optimization services. The Canadian Study of Health and Aging-Clinical Frailty Scale (CSHA-CFS) score was implemented in 2019 (n = 90). Patients receiving supportive/hospice care only had an average score of 5.8, while the averages for those in the optimization and SOC groups were 4.6 and 4.1, respectively (p ≤0.001). Patients receiving SOC had the longest average survival of 2.71 years compared to the optimization (2.30 years) and supportive care groups (0.93 years) (p ≤0.001). For all patients that underwent surgical interventions post-operatively, 23 patients (85%) were discharged home and four (15%) were discharged to a rehabilitation facility.

DISCUSSION

The present study demonstrates the profound impact that the complexities in health status and frailty among older individuals can have during cancer management. The Geriatric Oncology Program at BWMC maximized treatment outcomes for older adults through the provision of SOC therapies and optimization services, while also minimizing unnecessary interventions on an individual patient-centric level.

A Primer for Primary Care Physicians Managing Neurogenic Bladder Patients

Primary care plays an important role in caring for neurogenic bladder patients. Clinicians should assess neurogenic bladder patients for common urologic symptoms/signs and refer to urology if refractory or safety issues are identified.

Long-term prognostic implications of CT angiography-derived fractional flow reserve: Results from the DISCOVER-FLOW study

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES

The long-term prognostic implications of CT angiography-derived fractional flow reserve (FFRCT) remains unclear. We aimed to explore the long-term outcomes of FFRCT in the first-in-human study of it.

MATERIALS & METHODS

A total of 156 vessels from 102 patients with stable coronary artery disease, who underwent coronary CT angiography (CCTA) and invasive FFR measurement, were followed. The primary endpoint was target vessel failure (TVF), including cardiovascular death, target vessel myocardial infarction, and target vessel revascularization. Outcome analysis with FFRCT was performed on a per-vessel basis using a marginal Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

During median 9.9 years of follow-up, TVF occurred in 20 (12.8%) vessels. FFRCT ​≤0.80 discriminated TVF (hazard ratio [HR] 2.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06, 6.45). Among 94 vessels with deferral of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), TVF risk was inversely correlated with FFRCT ​(HR 0.62 per 0.1 increase, 95% CI 0.44, 0.86), with the cumulative incidence of TVF being 2.6%, 15.2%, and 28.6% for vessels with FFRCT ​>0.90, 0.81-0.90, and ≤0.80, respectively (p-for-trend 0.005). Predictive value for clinical outcomes of FFRCT was similar to that of invasive FFR (c-index 0.79 vs 0.71, P ​= ​0.28). The estimated TVF risk was higher in the deferral of PCI group than the PCI group for vessels with FFRCT ≤0.81.

CONCLUSION

FFRCT showed improved long-term risk stratification and displayed a risk continuum similar to invasive FFR.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT01189331.

Intermediate-Risk and High-Risk Pulmonary Embolism: Recognition and Management: Cardiology Clinics: Cardiac Emergencies

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is the third most common cause of cardiovascular death. Every specialty of medical practitioner will encounter PE in their patients, and should be prepared to employ contemporary strategies for diagnosis and initial risk-stratification. Treatment of PE is based on risk-stratification, with anticoagulation for all patients, and advanced modalities including systemic thrombolysis, catheter-directed therapies, and mechanical circulatory supports utilized in a manner paralleling PE severity and clinical context.

Clinical impact of remote heart failure management using the multiparameter ICD HeartLogic alert

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

The multiparametric implantable cardioverter-defibrillator HeartLogic index has proven to be a sensitive and timely predictor of impending heart failure (HF) decompensation. We evaluated the impact of a standardized follow-up protocol implemented by nursing staff and based on remote management of alerts.

METHODS

The algorithm was activated in HF patients at 19 Spanish centers. Transmitted data were analyzed remotely, and patients were contacted by telephone if alerts were issued. Clinical actions were implemented remotely or through outpatient visits. The primary endpoint consisted of HF hospitalizations or death. Secondary endpoints were HF outpatient visits. We compared the 12-month periods before and after the adoption of the protocol.

RESULTS

We analyzed 392 patients (aged 69±10 years, 76% male, 50% ischemic cardiomyopathy) with implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (20%) or cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillators (80%). The primary endpoint occurred 151 times in 86 (22%) patients during the 12 months before the adoption of the protocol, and 69 times in 45 (11%) patients (P<.001) during the 12 months after its adoption. The mean number of hospitalizations per patient was 0.39±0.89 pre- and 0.18±0.57 postadoption (P<.001). There were 185 outpatient visits for HF in 96 (24%) patients before adoption and 64 in 48 (12%) patients after adoption (P<.001). The mean number of visits per patient was 0.47±1.11 pre- and 0.16±0.51 postadoption (P<.001).

CONCLUSIONS

A standardized follow-up protocol based on remote management of HeartLogic alerts enabled effective remote management of HF patients. After its adoption, we observed a significant reduction in HF hospitalizations and outpatient visits.

Variants in structural cardiac genes in patients with cancer therapy-related cardiac dysfunction after anthracycline chemotherapy: a case control study

BACKGROUND

Variants in cardiomyopathy genes have been identified in patients with cancer therapy-related cardiac dysfunction (CTRCD), suggesting a genetic predisposition for the development of CTRCD. The diagnostic yield of genetic testing in a CTRCD population compared to a cardiomyopathy patient cohort is not yet known and information on which genes should be assessed in this population is lacking.

METHODS

We retrospectively included 46 cancer patients with a history of anthracycline induced CTRCD (defined as a decrease in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) to < 50% and a ≥ 10% reduction from baseline by echocardiography). Genetic testing was performed for 59 established cardiomyopathy genes. Only variants of uncertain significance and (likely) pathogenic variants were included. Diagnostic yield of genetic testing was compared with a matched cohort of patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM, n = 46) and a matched cohort of patients without cardiac disease (n = 111).

RESULTS

Average LVEF at time of CTRCD diagnosis was 30.1 ± 11.0%. Patients were 52.9 ± 14.6 years old at time of diagnosis and 30 (65.2%) were female. Most patients were treated for breast cancer or lymphoma, with a median doxorubicin equivalent dose of 300 mg/m2 [112.5-540.0]. A genetic variant, either pathogenic, likely pathogenic or of uncertain significance, was identified in 29/46 (63.0%) of patients with CTRCD, which is similar to the DCM cohort (34/46, 73.9%, p = 0.262), but significantly higher than in the negative control cohort (47/111, 39.6%, p = 0.018). Variants in TTN were the most prevalent in the CTRCD cohort (43% of all variants). All (likely) pathogenic variants identified in the CTRCD cohort were truncating variants in TTN. There were no significant differences in severity of CTRCD and in recovery rate in variant-harbouring individuals versus non-variant harbouring individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

In this case-control study, cancer patients with anthracycline-induced CTRCD have an increased burden of genetic variants in cardiomyopathy genes, similar to a DCM cohort. If validated in larger prospective studies, integration of genetic data in risk prediction models for CTRCD may guide cancer treatment. Moreover, genetic results have important clinical impact, both for the patient in the setting of precision medicine, as for the family members that will receive genetic counselling.

The Evolution of Risk Assessment in Spine Surgery: A Narrative Review

BACKGROUND

Risk assessment is critically important in elective and high-risk interventions, particularly spine surgery. This narrative review describes the evolution of risk assessment from the earliest instruments focused on general surgical risk stratification, to more accurate and spine-specific risk calculators that quantified risk, to the current era of big data.

METHODS

The PubMed and SCOPUS databases were queried on October 11, 2023 using search terms to identify risk assessment tools (RATs) in spine surgery. A total of 108 manuscripts were included after screening with full-text review using the following inclusion criteria: 1) study population of adult spine surgical patients, 2) studies describing validation and subsequent performance of preoperative RATs, and 3) studies published in English.

RESULTS

Early RATs provided stratified patients into broad categories and allowed for improved communication between physicians. Subsequent risk calculators attempted to quantify risk by estimating general outcomes such as mortality, but then evolved to estimate spine-specific surgical complications. The integration of novel concepts such as invasiveness, frailty, genetic biomarkers, and sarcopenia led to the development of more sophisticated predictive models that estimate the risk of spine-specific complications and long-term outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

RATs have undergone a transformative shift from generalized risk stratification to quantitative predictive models. The next generation of tools will likely involve integration of radiographic and genetic biomarkers, machine learning, and artificial intelligence to improve the accuracy of these models and better inform patients, surgeons, and payers.

Effects of the stress hyperglycemia ratio on long-term mortality in patients with triple-vessel disease and acute coronary syndrome

AIMS

Risk assessment for triple-vessel disease (TVD) remain challenging. Stress hyperglycemia represents the regulation of glucose metabolism in response to stress, and stress hyperglycemia ratio (SHR) is recently found to reflect true acute hyperglycemic status. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of SHR and its role in risk stratification in TVD patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS).

METHODS

A total of 3812 TVD patients with ACS with available baseline SHR measurement were enrolled from two independent centers. The endpoint was cardiovascular mortality. Cox regression was used to evaluate the association between SHR and cardiovascular mortality. The SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) II (SSII) was used as the reference model in the model improvement analysis.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 5.1 years, 219 (5.8%) TVD patients with ACS suffered cardiovascular mortality. TVD patients with ACS with high SHR had an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality after robust adjustment for confounding (high vs. median SHR: adjusted hazard ratio 1.809, 95% confidence interval 1.160-2.822, P = 0.009), which was fitted as a J-shaped pattern. The prognostic value of the SHR was found exclusively among patients with diabetes instead of those without diabetes. Moreover, addition of SHR improved the reclassification abilities of the SSII model for predicting cardiovascular mortality in TVD patients with ACS.

CONCLUSIONS

The high level of SHR is associated with the long-term risk of cardiovascular mortality in TVD patients with ACS, and is confirmed to have incremental prediction value beyond standard SSII. Assessment of SHR may help to improve the risk stratification strategy in TVD patients who are under acute stress.

Risk factors for complications in resident-performed cataract surgery: A systematic review

We assessed risk factors for complications associated with resident-performed cataract surgery. Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, we searched 4databases in September, 2023. We included peer-reviewed, full-text, English-language articles assessing risk factors for complications in resident performed cataract surgery. We excluded studies describing cataract surgeries performed by fellows, combined surgeries, and studies with insufficient information. Our initial search yielded 6244 articles; 15 articles were included after title/abstract and full-text review. Patient-related risk factors included older age, hypertension, prior vitrectomy, zonular pathology, pseudoexfoliation, poor preoperative visual acuity, small pupils, and selected types of cataracts. Surgeon-related risk factors included resident postgraduate year and surgeon right-handedness. Other risk factors included absence of supervision, long phacoemulsification time, and phacoemulsification with high power and torsion. The quality of the studies was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation; most studies graded as moderate, primarily due to risk of bias. When assigning cases to residents, graduate medical educators should consider general and resident-specific risk factors to facilitate teaching and preserve patient safety.

N6-methyladenosine-associated genetic variants in NECTIN2 and HPCAL1 are risk factors for abdominal aortic aneurysm

Although N6-methyladenosine (m6A) modification has been implicated in the pathogenesis of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), the relationship between m6A-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (m6A-SNPs) and AAA remains unknown. This study used integrative multi-omics analysis and clinical validation approaches to systematically identify potential m6A-SNPs connected with AAA risk. We found that rs6859 and rs10198139 could modulate the expression of local genes, NECTIN2 and HPCAL1, respectively, which exhibited upregulation in AAA tissues, and their risk variants were significantly correlated with an increased susceptibility to AAA. Incorporating rs6859 and rs10198139 improved the efficiency of AAA risk prediction compared to the model considering only conventional risk factors. Additionally, these two SNPs were predicted to be located within the regulatory sequences, and rs6859 showed a substantial impact on m6A modification levels. Our findings suggest that m6A-SNPs rs6859 and rs10198139 confer an elevated risk of AAA, possibly by promoting local gene expression through an m6A-mediated manner.

Gaps in evidence in the management of patients with intermediate-risk pulmonary arterial hypertension: Considerations following the ESC/ERS 2022 guidelines

A comprehensive evaluation of risk, using multiple indices, is necessary to provide reliable prognostic information and guide therapy in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The current ESC/ERS guidelines suggest using a three-strata model for incident (newly diagnosed) patients and a four-strata model for prevalent patients with PAH. The four-strata model serves as a fundamental risk-stratification tool and relies on a minimal dataset of indicators that must be considered during follow-up. Nevertheless, there are still areas of vagueness and ambiguity when classifying and managing patients in the intermediate-risk category. For these patients, considerations should include right heart imaging, hemodynamics, as well as individual factors such as age, sex, genetic profile, disease type, comorbidities, and kidney function. The aim of this report is to present case studies, with a specific focus on patients ultimately classified as intermediate risk. We aim to emphasize the challenges and complexities encountered in the realms of diagnosis, classification, and treatment for these particular patients.

Omics-based biomarkers as useful tools in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease clinical practice: How far are we?

Unmet needs exist in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) risk stratification. Our ability to identify patients with MASLD with advanced fibrosis and at higher risk for adverse outcomes is still limited. Incorporating novel biomarkers could represent a meaningful improvement to current risk predictors. With this aim, omics technologies have revolutionized the process of MASLD biomarker discovery over the past decades. While the research in this field is thriving, much of the publication has been haphazard, often using single-omics data and specimen sets of convenience, with many identified candidate biomarkers but lacking clinical validation and utility. If we incorporate these biomarkers to direct patients' management, it should be considered that the roadmap for translating a newly discovered omics-based signature to an actual, analytically valid test useful in MASLD clinical practice is rigorous and, therefore, not easily accomplished. This article presents an overview of this area's current state, the conceivable opportunities and challenges of omics-based laboratory diagnostics, and a roadmap for improving MASLD biomarker research.

Signs or symptoms of suspected preeclampsia - A retrospective national database study of prevalence, costs, and outcomes

BACKGROUND

Most patients with signs or symptoms (s/s) of suspected preeclampsia are not diagnosed with preeclampsia. We sought to determine and compare the prevalence of s/s, pregnancy outcomes, and costs between patients with and without diagnosed preeclampsia.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study analyzed a large insurance research database. Pregnancies with s/s of preeclampsia versus a confirmed preeclampsia diagnosis were identified using International Classification of Diseases codes. S/s include hypertension, proteinuria, headache, visual symptoms, edema, abdominal pain, and nausea/vomiting. Pregnancies were classed as 1) s/s of preeclampsia without a confirmed preeclampsia diagnosis (suspicion only), 2) s/s with a confirmed diagnosis (preeclampsia with suspicion), 3) diagnosed preeclampsia without s/s recorded (preeclampsia only), and 4) no s/s, nor preeclampsia diagnosis (control).

RESULTS

Of 1,324,424 pregnancies, 29.2 % had ≥1 documented s/s of suspected preeclampsia, and 14.2 % received a preeclampsia diagnosis. Hypertension and headache were the most common s/s, leading 20.2 % and 9.2 % pregnancies developed to preeclampsia diagnosis, respectively. Preeclampsia, with or without suspicion, had the highest rates of hypertension-related severe maternal morbidity (HR [95 % CI]: 3.0 [2.7, 3.2] and 3.6 [3.3, 4.0], respectively) versus controls. A similar trend was seen in neonatal outcomes such as preterm delivery and low birth weight. Cases in which preeclampsia was suspected but not confirmed had the highest average total maternal care costs ($6096 [95 % CI: 602, 6170] over control).

CONCLUSION

There is a high prevalence but poor selectivity of traditional s/s of preeclampsia, highlighting a clinical need for improved screening method and cost-effectiveness disease management.

Lipoprotein Insulin Resistance Score and Mortality Risk Stratification in Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Higher total serum cholesterol is associated with lower mortality in heart failure. Evaluating associations between lipoprotein subfractions and mortality among people with heart failure may provide insights into this observation.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled a community cohort of people with heart failure from 2003 to 2012 and assessed vital status through 2021. Plasma collected at enrollment was used to measure lipoprotein subfractions via nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. A composite score of 6 lipoprotein subfractions was generated using the lipoprotein insulin resistance index (LP-IR) algorithm. Using covariate-adjusted proportional hazards regression models, we evaluated associations between LP-IR score and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Among 1382 patients with heart failure (median follow-up 13.9 years), a one-standard-deviation (SD) increment in LP-IR score was associated with lower mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97-0.99). Among LP-IR parameters, mean high-density lipoprotein (HDL) particle size was significantly associated with lower mortality (HR per 1-SD decrement in mean HDL particle size = 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.89), suggesting that the inverse association between LP-IR score and mortality may be driven by smaller mean HDL particle size.

CONCLUSIONS

LP-IR score was inversely associated with mortality among patients with heart failure and may be driven by smaller HDL particle size.

Transcriptomic Heterogeneity of Expansile Cribriform and Other Gleason Pattern 4 Prostate Cancer Subtypes

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancers featuring an expansile cribriform (EC) pattern are associated with worse clinical outcomes following radical prostatectomy (RP). However, studies of the genomic characteristics of Gleason pattern 4 subtypes are limited.

OBJECTIVE

To explore transcriptomic characteristics and heterogeneity within Gleason pattern 4 subtypes (fused/poorly formed, glomeruloid, small cribriform, EC/intraductal carcinoma [IDC]) and the association with biochemical recurrence (BCR)-free survival.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a retrospective cohort study including 165 men with grade group 2-4 prostate cancer who underwent RP at a single academic institution (2016-2020) and Decipher testing of the RP specimen. Patients with Gleason pattern 5 were excluded. IDC and EC patterns were grouped. Median follow-up was 2.5 yr after RP for patients without BCR.

OUTCOMES MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Prompted by heterogeneity within pattern 4 subtypes identified via exploratory analyses, we investigated transcriptomic consensus clusters using partitioning around medoids and hallmark gene set scores. The primary clinical outcome was BCR, defined as two consecutive prostate-specific antigen measurements >0.2 ng/ml at least 8 wk after RP, or any additional treatment. Multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models were used to determine factors associated with BCR-free survival.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

In this cohort, 99/165 patients (60%) had EC and 67 experienced BCR. Exploratory analyses and clustering demonstrated transcriptomic heterogeneity within each Gleason pattern 4 subtype. In the multivariable model controlled for pattern 4 subtype, margin status, Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Post-Surgical score, and Decipher score, a newly identified steroid hormone-driven cluster (hazard ratio 2.35 95% confidence interval 1.01-5.47) was associated with worse BCR-free survival. The study is limited by intermediate follow-up, no validation cohort, and lack of accounting for intratumoral and intraprostatic heterogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

Transcriptomic heterogeneity was present within and across each Gleason pattern 4 subtype, demonstrating there is additional biologic diversity not captured by histologic subtypes. This heterogeneity can be used to develop novel signatures and to classify transcriptomic subtypes, which may help in refining risk stratification following RP to further guide decision-making on adjuvant and salvage treatments.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We studied prostatectomy specimens and found that tumors with similar microscopic appearance can have genetic differences that may help to predict outcomes after prostatectomy for prostate cancer. Our results demonstrate that further gene expression analysis of prostate cancer subtypes may improve risk stratification after prostatectomy. Future studies are needed to develop novel gene expression signatures and validate these findings in independent sets of patients.

OHCCPredictor: an online risk stratification model for predicting survival duration of older patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Although the elderly constitute more than a third of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, they have not been adequately represented in treatment and prognosis studies. Thus, there is not enough evidence to guide the treatment of such patients. The objective of this study is to identify the prognostic factors of older patients with HCC and to construct a new prognostic model for predicting their overall survival (OS).

METHODS

2,721 HCC patients aged ≥ 65 were extracted from the public database-Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and randomly divided into a training set and an internal validation set with a ratio of 7:3. 101 patients diagnosed from 2008 to 2017 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine were identified as the external validation set. Univariate cox regression analyses and multivariate cox regression analyses were adopted to identify these independent prognostic factors. A predictive nomogram-based risk stratification model was proposed and evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, and a decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

These attributes including age, sex, marital status, T stage, N stage, surgery, chemotherapy, tumor size, alpha-fetoprotein level, fibrosis score, bone metastasis, lung metastasis, and grade were the independent prognostic factors for older patients with HCC while predicting survival duration. We found that the nomogram provided a good assessment of OS at 1, 3, and 5 years in older patients with HCC (1-year OS: (training set: AUC = 0.823 (95%CI 0.803-0.845); internal validation set: AUC = 0.847 (95%CI 0.818-0.876); external validation set: AUC = 0.732 (95%CI 0.521-0.943)); 3-year OS: (training set: AUC = 0.813 (95%CI 0.790-0.837); internal validation set: AUC = 0.844 (95%CI 0.812-0.876); external validation set: AUC = 0.780 (95%CI 0.674-0.887)); 5-year OS: (training set: AUC = 0.839 (95%CI 0.806-0.872); internal validation set: AUC = 0.800 (95%CI 0.751-0.849); external validation set: AUC = 0.821 (95%CI 0.727-0.914)). The calibration curves showed that the nomogram was with strong calibration. The DCA indicated that the nomogram can be used as an effective tool in clinical practice. The risk stratification of all subgroups was statistically significant (p < 0.05). In the stratification analysis of surgery, larger resection (LR) achieved a better survival curve than local destruction (LD), but a worse one than segmental resection (SR) and liver transplantation (LT) (p < 0.0001). With the consideration of the friendship to clinicians, we further developed an online interface (OHCCPredictor) for such a predictive function ( https://juntaotan.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp_hcc/ ). With such an easily obtained online tool, clinicians will be provided helpful assistance in formulating personalized therapy to assess the prognosis of older patients with HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Age, sex, marital status, T stage, N stage, surgery, chemotherapy, tumor size, AFP level, fibrosis score, bone metastasis, lung metastasis, and grade were independent prognostic factors for elderly patients with HCC. The constructed nomogram model based on the above factors could accurately predict the prognosis of such patients. Besides, the developed online web interface of the predictive model provide easily obtained access for clinicians.

Identification of an Ultra-High-Risk Subgroup of Neuroblastoma Patients within the High-Risk Cohort Using a Computed Tomography-Based Radiomics Approach

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

To identify ultra-high-risk (UHR) neuroblastoma patients who experienced disease-related mortality within 18 months of diagnosis within the high-risk cohort using computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics analysis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 105 high-risk neuroblastoma patients, divided into a training set (n = 74) and a test set (n = 31). Radiomics features were extracted and selected from arterial phase CT images, and an optimal radiomics signature was established using the support vector machine algorithm. Evaluation metrics, including area under the curve (AUC) and 95% confidence interval (CI), were calculated. Furthermore, the fit and clinical benefit of the signature, along with its correlation with overall survival (OS), were analyzed.

RESULTS

The optimal radiomics signature comprised 11 features. In the training set, AUC and accuracy were 0.911 (95% CI: 0.840-0.982) and 0.892, respectively. In the test set, AUC and accuracy were 0.828 (95% CI: 0.669-0.987) and 0.839, respectively. There was no significant difference between predicted probability and actual probability, and the signature demonstrated net benefit. The concordance index of this signature for predicting OS was 0.743 (95% CI: 0.672-0.814) in the training set and 0.688 (95% CI: 0.566-0.810) in the test set. Moreover, the signature achieved AUC values of 0.832, 0.863, and 0.721 for 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year OS in the training set, and 0.870, 0.836, and 0.638 in the test set for the respective time periods.

CONCLUSION

The utilization of CT-based radiomics signature to identify an UHR subgroup of neuroblastoma patients within the high-risk cohort can help aid in predicting early disease progression.

Effects of Androgen Deprivation Therapy on Prostate Cancer Outcomes According to Competing Event Risk: Secondary Analysis of a Phase 3 Randomised Trial

BACKGROUND

Previous studies indicate that the benefit of short-term androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) with radiotherapy (RT) for prostate cancer depends on competing risks.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether a quantitative method to stratify patients by risk for competing events (omega score) could identify subgroups that selectively benefit from ADT.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

An ancillary analysis of NRG/RTOG 9408 phase 3 trial (NCT00002597) involving 1945 prostate cancer patients was conducted.

INTERVENTION

Short-term ADT.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

We applied generalised competing event regression models incorporating age, performance status, comorbidity, T category, Gleason score (GS), and prostate-specific antigen (PSA), to stratify patients according to relative hazards for primary cancer-related events (distant metastasis or prostate cancer death) versus competing noncancer mortality. We tested interactions between ADT and subgroups defined by standard risk criteria versus relative risk (RR) using the omega score.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

T2b, higher GS, and higher PSA were associated with an increased RR for cancer-related versus competing mortality events (a higher omega score); increased age and comorbidity were associated with a decreased omega score. Of 996 patients with low-risk/favourable intermediate-risk (FIR) disease, 286 (28.7%) had a high omega score (≥0.314). Of 768 patients with unfavourable intermediate-risk disease, 175 (22.8%) had a low omega score. The overall discordance in risk classification was 26.1%. Both standard criteria and omega score identified significant interactions for the effect of ADT on cancer-related events and late mortality in low- versus high-risk subgroups. Within the low-risk/FIR subgroup, a higher omega score identified patients in whom ADT significantly reduced cancer events and improved event-free survival. Limitations are the need for external/prospective validation and lower RT doses than contemporary standards.

CONCLUSIONS

Stratification based on competing event risk is useful for identifying prostate cancer patients who selectively benefit from ADT.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We analysed the effectiveness of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) for localised prostate cancer among patients, defined by the relative risk (RR) for cancer versus noncancer events. Among patients with traditional low-risk/favourable intermediate-risk disease, those with a higher RR benefitted from short-term ADT.

Immunophenotypic profile defines cytogenetic stability and unveils distinct prognoses in patients with newly-diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM)

Prognostic significance of multiple immune antigens in multiple myeloma has been well established. However, a level of uncertainty remains regarding the intrinsic relationship between immunophenotypes and cytogenetic stability and precise risk stratification. To address these unresolved issues, we conducted a study involving 1389 patients enrolled in the National Longitudinal Cohort of Hematological Diseases in China (NCT04645199). Our results revealed that the correlation between antigen expression and cytogenetics is more prominent than cytopenia or organ dysfunction. Most immune antigens, apart from CD38, CD138, and CD81, exhibit significant associations with the incidence of at least one cytogenetic abnormality. In turn, we identified CD138-low/CD27-neg as specific adverse immunophenotypic profile, which remaining independent impact on progression-free survival (HR, 1.49; P = 0.007) and overall survival (HR, 1.77; P < 0.001) even in the context of cytogenetics. Importantly, CD138-low/CD27-neg profile was also associated with inferior survival after first relapse (P < 0.001). Moreover, the antigen expression profiles were not strictly similar when comparing diagnosis and relapse; in particular, the CD138-low/CD27-neg pattern was notably increased after disease progression (19.1 to 29.1%; P = 0.005). Overall, our study demonstrates that diverse immune profiles are strongly associated with cytogenetic stability, and a specific immunophenotype (CD138-low/CD27-neg) could effectively predict prognoses across different disease stages.

Cardiac risk stratification and adverse outcomes in surgically managed patients with isolated traumatic spine injuries

INTRODUCTION

As the incidence of traumatic spine injuries has been steadily increasing, especially in the elderly, the ability to categorize patients based on their underlying risk for the adverse outcomes could be of great value in clinical decision making. This study aimed to investigate the association between the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) and adverse outcomes in patients who have undergone surgery for traumatic spine injuries.

METHODS

All adult patients (18 years or older) in the 2013-2019 TQIP database with isolated spine injuries resulting from blunt force trauma, who underwent spinal surgery, were eligible for inclusion in the study. The association between the RCRI and in-hospital mortality, cardiopulmonary complications, and failure-to-rescue (FTR) was determined using Poisson regression models with robust standard errors to adjust for potential confounding.

RESULTS

A total of 39,391 patients were included for further analysis. In the regression model, an RCRI ≥ 3 was associated with a threefold risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 3.19 (2.30-4.43), p < 0.001] and cardiopulmonary complications [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 3.27 (2.46-4.34), p < 0.001], as well as a fourfold risk of FTR [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 4.27 (2.59-7.02), p < 0.001], compared to RCRI 0. The risk of all adverse outcomes increased stepwise along with each RCRI score.

CONCLUSION

The RCRI may be a useful tool for identifying patients with traumatic spine injuries who are at an increased risk of in-hospital mortality, cardiopulmonary complications, and failure-to-rescue after surgery.