Characterization of Treatment Resistance and Viral Kinetics in the Setting of Single-Active Versus Dual-Active Monoclonal Antibodies Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

BACKGROUND

Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) represent a crucial antiviral strategy for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, but it is unclear whether combination mAbs offer a benefit over single-active mAb treatment. Amubarvimab and romlusevimab significantly reduced the risk of hospitalizations or death in the ACTIV-2/A5401 trial. Certain SARS-CoV-2 variants are intrinsically resistant against romlusevimab, leading to only single-active mAb therapy with amubarvimab in these variants. We evaluated virologic outcomes in individuals treated with single- versus dual-active mAbs.

METHODS

Participants were nonhospitalized adults at higher risk of clinical progression randomized to amubarvimab plus romlusevimab or placebo. Quantitative SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels and targeted S-gene next-generation sequencing was performed on anterior nasal samples. We compared viral load kinetics and resistance emergence between individuals treated with effective single- versus dual-active mAbs depending on the infecting variant.

RESULTS

Study participants receiving single- or dual-active mAbs had similar demographics, baseline nasal viral load, symptom score, and symptom duration. Compared with single-active mAb treatment, treatment with dual-active mAbs led to faster viral load decline at study days 3 (P < .001) and 7 (P < .01). Treatment-emergent resistance mutations were more likely to be detected after amubarvimab plus romlusevimab treatment than with placebo (2.6% vs 0%; P < .001) and were more frequently detected in the setting of single-active compared with dual-active mAb treatment (7.3% vs 1.1%; P < .01). Single-active and dual-active mAb treatment resulted in similar decrease in rates of hospitalizations or death.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with single-active mAb therapy, dual-active mAbs led to similar clinical outcomes but significantly faster viral load decline and a lower risk of emergent resistance.

Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus Kinetics in Serum, Saliva, and Urine, Iran, 2018

Little is known about using noninvasive samples for diagnosing Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF). We investigated detection of CCHF virus in serum, saliva, and urine samples. Our results indicate that serum is the best sample type for CCHF diagnosis; saliva can be used for noninvasive sampling.

Expanding the adenovirus toolbox: reporter viruses for studying the dynamics of human adenovirus replication

To streamline standard virological assays, we developed a suite of nine fluorescent or bioluminescent replication competent human species C5 adenovirus reporter viruses that mimic their parental wild-type counterpart. These reporter viruses provide a rapid and quantitative readout of various aspects of viral infection and replication based on EGFP, mCherry, or NanoLuc measurement. Moreover, they permit real-time non-invasive measures of viral load, replication dynamics, and infection kinetics over the entire course of infection, allowing measurements that were not previously possible. This suite of replication competent reporter viruses increases the ease, speed, and adaptability of standard assays and has the potential to accelerate multiple areas of human adenovirus research.IMPORTANCEIn this work, we developed a versatile toolbox of nine HAdV-C5 reporter viruses and validated their functions in cell culture. These reporter viruses provide a rapid and quantitative readout of various aspects of viral infection and replication based on EGFP, mCherry, or NanoLuc measurement. The utility of these reporter viruses could also be extended for use in 3D cell culture, organoids, live cell imaging, or animal models, and provides a conceptual framework for the development of new reporter viruses representing other clinically relevant HAdV species.

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for V937 oncolytic virus in mice

Introduction: Oncolytic viruses (OVs) represent a novel therapeutic strategy in oncology due to their capability to selectively infect and replicate in cancer cells, triggering a direct and/or immune-induced tumor lysis. However, the mechanisms governing OV pharmacokinetics are still poorly understood. This work aims to develop a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model of the novel OV, V937, in non-tumor-bearing mice to get a quantitative understanding of its elimination and tissue uptake processes. Materials and methods: Model development was performed using data obtained from 60 mice. Viral levels were quantified from eight tissues after a single intravenous V937 dose. An external dataset was used for model validation. This test set included multiple-dose experiments with different routes of administration. V937 distribution in each organ was described using a physiological structure based on mouse-specific organ blood flows and volumes. Analyses were performed using the non-linear mixed-effects approach with NONMEM 7.4. Results: Viral levels showed a drop from 108 to 105 copies/µg RNA at day 1 in blood, reflected in a high estimate of total clearance (18.2 mL/h). A well-stirred model provided an adequate description for all organs except the muscle and heart, where a saturable uptake process improved data description. The highest numbers of viral copies were observed in the brain, lymph node, kidney, liver, lung, and spleen on the first day after injection. On the other hand, the maximum amount of viral copies in the heart, muscle, and pancreas occurred 3 days after administration. Conclusion: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first physiologically based pharmacokinetic model developed to characterize OV biodistribution, representing a relevant source of quantitative knowledge regarding the in vivo behavior of OVs. This model can be further expanded by adding a tumor compartment, where OVs could replicate.

Variant-Specific Viral Kinetics in Acute COVID-19

Understanding variant-specific differences in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral kinetics may explain differences in transmission efficiency and provide insights on pathogenesis and prevention. We evaluated SARS-CoV-2 kinetics from nasal swabs across multiple variants (Alpha, Delta, Epsilon, Gamma) in placebo recipients of the ACTIV-2/A5401 trial. Delta variant infection led to the highest maximum viral load and shortest time from symptom onset to viral load peak. There were no significant differences in time to viral clearance across the variants. Viral decline was biphasic with first- and second-phase decays having half-lives of 11 hours and 2.5 days, respectively, with differences among variants, especially in the second phase. These results suggest that while variant-specific differences in viral kinetics exist, post-peak viral load all variants appeared to be efficiently cleared by the host. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04518410.

Genetic and Functional Characterization of Congenital HCMV Clinical Strains in Ex Vivo First Trimester Placental Model

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) is the leading cause of congenital viral infection, leading to a variety of symptoms in the unborn child that range from asymptomatic to death in utero. Our objective was to better understand the mechanisms of placental infection by HCMV clinical strains, particularly during the first trimester of pregnancy. We thus characterized and compared the replication kinetics of various HCMV clinical strains and laboratory strains by measuring viral loads in an ex vivo model of first trimester villi and decidua, and used NGS and PCA analysis to analyze the genes involved in cell tropism and virulence factors. We observed that first trimester villi and decidua are similarly permissive to laboratory and symptomatic strains, and that asymptomatic strains poorly replicate in decidua tissue. PCA analysis allowed us to segregate our clinical strains based on their clinical characteristics, suggesting a link between gene mutations and symptoms. All these results bring forth elements that can help better understand the mechanisms that induce the appearance of symptoms or in the congenitally infected newborn.

Proposal of Model for Evaluation of Viral Kinetics of African/Asian/Brazilian-Zika virus Strains (Step Growth Curve) in Trophoblastic Cell Lines

The Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic brought new discoveries regarding arboviruses, especially flaviviruses, as ZIKV was described as sexually and vertically transmitted. The latter shows severe consequences for the embryo/fetus, such as congenital microcephaly and deficiency of the neural system, currently known as Congenital ZIKV Syndrome (CZS). To better understand ZIKV dynamics in trophoblastic cells present in the first trimester of pregnancy (BeWo, HTR-8, and control cell HuH-7), an experiment of viral kinetics was performed for African MR766 low passage and Asian-Brazilian IEC ZIKV lineages. The results were described independently and demonstrated that the three placental cells lines are permissive and susceptible to ZIKV. We noticed cytopathic effects that are typical in in vitro viral infection in BeWo and HTR-8. Regarding kinetics, MR766lp showed peaks of viral loads in 24 and 48 hpi for all cell types tested, as well as marked cells death after peak production. On the other hand, the HTR-8 lineage inoculated with ZIKV-IEC exhibited increased viral production in 144 hpi, with a peak between 24 and 96 hpi. Furthermore, IEC had peak variations of viral production for BeWo in 144 hpi. Considering such in vitro results, the hypothesis that maternal fetal transmission is probably a way of virus transmission between the mother and the embryo/fetus is maintained.

Pre-existing, treatment-specific resistance-associated substitutions in hepatitis C virus genotype 1 and 3 and viral RNA titers during treatment with direct-acting antivirals

The introduction of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infected patients has greatly increased treatment success rates. However, viral response kinetics to DAA treatment may depend on pre-existing resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) in HCV. The aim of this study was to describe how pre-existing RASs affect DAA treatment-induced reduction in HCV RNA titers in HCV genotypes 1- and 3-infected individuals. Patients with HCV genotype 1 infection (N = 31) treated with either sofosbuvir/ledipasvir/ribavirin or paritaprevir/ombitasvir/ritonavir/dasabuvir/ribavirin and HCV genotype 3-infected patients (N = 16) treated with either sofosbuvir/daclatasvir/ribavirin or sofosbuvir/ribavirin were analyzed. HCV RNA levels were determined at baseline and frequently during treatment, and RAS profiles were obtained by deep sequencing at baseline. In total, 33/47 (70.2%) of the patients had baseline RASs. However, treatment-specific RASs were detected at baseline only in 12.9% and 18.8% of HCV genotypes 1- and 3-infected patients, respectively. In genotype 1-infected individuals, reduction in HCV RNA titer during the first week of treatment was not affected by evidence of either treatment-specific RASs or cirrhosis or treatment regimen. In genotype 3-infected individuals receiving sofosbuvir/daclatasvir/ribavirin, the presence of daclatasvir-specific NS5A RASs at baseline correlated with a reduced decline of HCV RNA in the first treatment week. For both genotypes 1- and 3-infected individuals, cirrhosis but not treatment-specific RAS were associated with the time of clearance of HCV RNA. It is, however, important to note that this study involves DAA regimens that were used only during the original introduction of interferon-free DAA-based treatments.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Load Kinetics and Clinical Course of Acute Bronchiolitis in Hospitalized Infants: Interim Results and Review of the Literature

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) bronchiolitis is the leading cause of hospitalization in infants. The role of RSV load in disease severity is still debated. We present the interim results of a prospective monocentric study enrolling previously healthy infants hospitalized for RSV bronchiolitis, collecting nasopharyngeal aspirates every 48 h from admission to discharge, and evaluating RSV load dynamics in relation to clinical outcome measures of bronchiolitis severity, including: need, type and duration of oxygen therapy, length of hospitalization, and the bronchiolitis clinical score calculated at admission. The results showed that the highest viral replication occurs within the first 48 hours after admission, with a significant decrease at subsequent time points (p < 0.0001). Moreover, higher RSV-RNA values were associated with the need for oxygen therapy (p = 0.03), particularly high-flow nasal cannula type (p = 0.04), and longer duration of respiratory support (p = 0.04). Finally, higher RSV load values were correlated with lower white blood cells, especially lymphocyte counts and C-reactive protein levels (p = 0.03, p = 0.04, and p = 0.01, respectively), as well as with patients of a younger age (p = 0.02). These data suggest that RSV may actively contribute to the clinical severity of bronchiolitis, together with other potential non-viral factors.

Clinical presentation, viral kinetics, and management of human monkeypox cases from New Delhi, India 2022

We describe the clinical and demographic characteristics, virological follow-up, and management of five confirmed monkeypox cases from New Delhi, India without any international travel history. The viral load kinetics and viral clearance were estimated in oropharyngeal swabs (OPS), nasopharyngeal swabs (NPS), EDTA blood, serum, urine, and various lesion specimens on every fourth day of follow-up ranging from 5 to 24 post onset day (POD) of illness. All five cases presented with mild to moderate-grade intermittent fever, myalgia, and lesions on the genitals, groins, lower limb, trunk, and upper limb. Four cases had non-tender firm lymphadenopathy. No secondary complications or sexually transmitted infections were recorded in these cases except for the presence of viral hepatitis B infection marker hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg) in one case. All the cases were mild and had a good recovery. A higher viral load was detected in lesion fluid (POD 9), followed by lesion roof (POD 9), urine (POD 5), lesion base (POD 5), and OPS/NPS (POD 5). The monkeypox virus (MPXV) DNA was detected in clinical samples from 5th to 24th POD. These monkeypox cases without international travel history suggest the underdiagnosed monkeypox infection in the community. This emphasizes the need for active surveillance of MPXV in the high-risk population such as men having sex with men and female sex workers.

Quantifying the impact of immune history and variant on SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and infection rebound: A retrospective cohort study

Background

The combined impact of immunity and SARS-CoV-2 variants on viral kinetics during infections has been unclear.

Methods

We characterized 1,280 infections from the National Basketball Association occupational health cohort identified between June 2020 and January 2022 using serial RT-qPCR testing. Logistic regression and semi-mechanistic viral RNA kinetics models were used to quantify the effect of age, variant, symptom status, infection history, vaccination status and antibody titer to the founder SARS-CoV-2 strain on the duration of potential infectiousness and overall viral kinetics. The frequency of viral rebounds was quantified under multiple cycle threshold (Ct) value-based definitions.

Results

Among individuals detected partway through their infection, 51.0% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 48.3-53.6%) remained potentially infectious (Ct <30) 5 days post detection, with small differences across variants and vaccination status. Only seven viral rebounds (0.7%; N=999) were observed, with rebound defined as 3+days with Ct <30 following an initial clearance of 3+days with Ct ≥30. High antibody titers against the founder SARS-CoV-2 strain predicted lower peak viral loads and shorter durations of infection. Among Omicron BA.1 infections, boosted individuals had lower pre-booster antibody titers and longer clearance times than non-boosted individuals.

Conclusions

SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics are partly determined by immunity and variant but dominated by individual-level variation. Since booster vaccination protects against infection, longer clearance times for BA.1-infected, boosted individuals may reflect a less effective immune response, more common in older individuals, that increases infection risk and reduces viral RNA clearance rate. The shifting landscape of viral kinetics underscores the need for continued monitoring to optimize isolation policies and to contextualize the health impacts of therapeutics and vaccines.

Funding

Supported in part by CDC contract #200-2016-91779, a sponsored research agreement to Yale University from the National Basketball Association contract #21-003529, and the National Basketball Players Association.

Point-of-care detection of SARS-CoV-2 antigen among symptomatic vs. asymptomatic persons: Testing for COVID-19 vs. infectivity

Background

Management of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) requires rapid and simple methods to detect COVID-19 patients and identify potential infectors. This study aimed to evaluate the utility of a point-of-care (PoC) rapid antigen diagnostic test (Ag-RDT) in these settings.

Patients and methods

Individuals who consecutively presented for SARS-CoV-2 testing at a tertiary care center in Buenos Aires, Argentina, underwent PoC Ag-RDT testing and real-time RT-PCR (qRT-PCR) on the same day during June 2021.

Results

Of 584 included subjects, 108 (18.5%) were symptomatic for COVID-19 while the remaining presented for miscellaneous reasons unrelated to possible or confirmed contact with a SARS-CoV-2-infected individual. A positive Ag-RDT result was obtained in 26 (24.1%) symptomatic and 7 (1.5%) asymptomatic persons (p < 0.001), which was concordant with qRT-PCR in 105/108 [97.2%, Cohen's kappa coefficient (κ) = 0.927] symptomatic and 467/476 (98.1% κ = 0.563) asymptomatic participants, with a positive percentage agreement (PPA; 95% confidence interval) of 89.7% (71.5-97.3%) and 42.9% (18.8-70.4%), respectively. None of the 11 false-negative diagnoses showed a C_t-value ≤20. Considering only failures with a C_t-value below 31 as hypothetical infectivity threshold of 10⁵ SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies/mL, concordance was observed in 98.1% (κ = 0.746) in the asymptomatic population, accounting for a PPA of 66.7% (30.9-91%).

Conclusions

PoC Ag-RDT accurately detected active SARS-CoV-2 infection and showed acceptable diagnostic performance in asymptomatic persons potentially spreading infectious virus. Ag-RDT may therefore be useful to slow down or stop transmission by enabling adequate decisions on isolation at a public health level.

No effect of remdesivir or betamethasone on upper respiratory tract SARS-CoV-2 RNA kinetics in hospitalised COVID-19 patients: a retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

The viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 has been considered clinically important. While remdesivir and corticosteroids are recommended for COVID-19 patients requiring oxygen support, there is a limited number of published reports on viral kinetics in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 treated with remdesivir or corticosteroids.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study by collecting longitudinal samples from the nasopharynx/throat of 123 hospitalised patients (median age 55 years, 74% male) with COVID-19, to evaluate the effects of remdesivir and corticosteroid treatment on viral RNA levels. The subjects were divided into four groups: those receiving remdesivir (n = 25), betamethasone (n = 41), both (n = 15), or neither (n = 42). Time to viral RNA clearance was analysed using Kaplan-Meier plots, categorical data were analysed using Fisher's exact test, and Kruskal-Wallis for continuous data. Viral RNA decline rate was analysed using a mixed effect model.

RESULTS

We found no significant difference in SARS-CoV-2 RNA decline rate or time to SARS-CoV-2 RNA clearance between the groups. Moreover, clinical status at baseline was not correlated with time to viral clearance.

CONCLUSIONS

Since SARS-CoV-2 RNA kinetics was not affected by treatment, repeated sampling from the upper respiratory tract cannot be used to evaluate treatment response.

Mutation in the Disordered Linker Region of Capsid Disrupts Viral Kinetics of a Neuropathogenic SIV in Rhesus Macaques

TRIM5α polymorphism in rhesus macaques (RM) limits the genetic pool of animals in which we can perform simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) studies without first screening animals for permissive TRIM5α genotypes. We have previously shown that polymorphisms in the TRIM5α B30.2/SPRY domain impact the level of SIVsmm viremia in RM and that amino acid substitutions (P37S/R98S) in the capsid N-terminal domain (CA-NTD) enables the virus to overcome restriction in RMs with the restrictive homozygous TRIM5αTFP/TFP genotype. Since this genotype also negatively impacted the development of central nervous system (CNS) lesions in animals infected with the parental source of CL757, we sought to generate a TRIM5αTFP/TFP-resistant clone, SIV-804E-CL757-P37S/R98S (CL757-SS), using a similar strategy. Unexpectedly, viral replication of CL757-SS was impaired in RMs with either the permissive TRIM5αTFP/Q or the restrictive TRIM5αTFP/TFP genotype. Analysis of the virus which emerged in the latter animals led to the discovery of a preexisting mutation relative to other SIVs. This P146T substitution in a conserved disordered linker region in the C-terminal domain of capsid (CA-CTD) has been shown to inhibit proper formation of HIV-1 capsid particles. Restoration of this residue to proline in the context of the TRIM5α-SS escape mutations not only restored viral replication, but also enhanced the infectivity of our previously reported neurotropic clone, even in RMs with permissive TRIM5α genotypes. IMPORTANCE SIV infection of rhesus macaques has become a valuable model for the development of AIDS vaccines and antiretroviral therapies. Polymorphisms in the rhesus macaque TRIM5α gene can affect SIV replication, making it necessary to genetically screen macaques for TRIM5α alleles that are permissive for SIV replication. This limits the pool of animals that can be used in a study, thereby making the acquisition of animals needed to fulfill study parameters difficult. We have constructed a viral clone that induces neuroAIDS in rhesus macaques regardless of their TRIM5α genotype, while also highlighting the important role the disordered linker domain plays in viral infectivity.

Epstein-Barr Virus Reactivation After Paediatric Haematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation: Risk Factors and Sensitivity Analysis of Mathematical Model

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) establishes a lifelong latent infection in healthy humans, kept under immune control by cytotoxic T cells (CTLs). Following paediatric haematopoetic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), a loss of immune surveillance leads to opportunistic outgrowth of EBV-infected cells, resulting in EBV reactivation, which can ultimately progress to post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorder (PTLD). The aims of this study were to identify risk factors for EBV reactivation in children in the first 100 days post-HSCT and to assess the suitability of a previously reported mathematical model to mechanistically model EBV reactivation kinetics in this cohort. Retrospective electronic data were collected from 56 children who underwent HSCT at Great Ormond Street Hospital (GOSH) between 2005 and 2016. Using EBV viral load (VL) measurements from weekly quantitative PCR (qPCR) monitoring post-HSCT, a multivariable Cox proportional hazards (Cox-PH) model was developed to assess time to first EBV reactivation event in the first 100 days post-HSCT. Sensitivity analysis of a previously reported mathematical model was performed to identify key parameters affecting EBV VL. Cox-PH modelling revealed EBV seropositivity of the HSCT recipient and administration of anti-thymocyte globulin (ATG) pre-HSCT to be significantly associated with an increased risk of EBV reactivation in the first 100 days post-HSCT (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 2.32, P = 0.02; AHR = 2.55, P = 0.04). Five parameters were found to affect EBV VL in sensitivity analysis of the previously reported mathematical model. In conclusion, we have assessed the effect of multiple covariates on EBV reactivation in the first 100 days post-HSCT in children and have identified key parameters in a previously reported mechanistic mathematical model that affect EBV VL. Future work will aim to fit this model to patient EBV VLs, develop the model to account for interindividual variability and model the effect of clinically relevant covariates such as rituximab therapy and ATG on EBV VL.

In vivo kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its relationship with a person's infectiousness

The within-host viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and how they relate to a person's infectiousness are not well understood. This limits our ability to quantify the impact of interventions on viral transmission. Here, we develop viral dynamic models of SARS-CoV-2 infection and fit them to data to estimate key within-host parameters such as the infected cell half-life and the within-host reproductive number. We then develop a model linking viral load (VL) to infectiousness and show a person's infectiousness increases sublinearly with VL and that the logarithm of the VL in the upper respiratory tract is a better surrogate of infectiousness than the VL itself. Using data on VL and the predicted infectiousness, we further incorporated data on antigen and RT-PCR tests and compared their usefulness in detecting infection and preventing transmission. We found that RT-PCR tests perform better than antigen tests assuming equal testing frequency; however, more frequent antigen testing may perform equally well with RT-PCR tests at a lower cost but with many more false-negative tests. Overall, our models provide a quantitative framework for inferring the impact of therapeutics and vaccines that lower VL on the infectiousness of individuals and for evaluating rapid testing strategies.

Modeling hepatitis C virus kinetics during liver transplantation reveals the role of the liver in virus clearance

While the liver, specifically hepatocytes, are widely accepted as the main source of hepatitis C virus (HCV) production, the role of the liver/hepatocytes in clearance of circulating HCV remains unknown. Frequent HCV kinetic data were recorded and mathematically modeled from five liver transplant patients throughout the anhepatic (absence of liver) phase and for 4 hr post-reperfusion. During the anhepatic phase, HCV remained at pre-anhepatic levels (n = 3) or declined (n = 2) with t_1/2~1 hr. Immediately post-reperfusion, virus declined in a biphasic manner in four patients consisting of a rapid decline (t_1/2 = 5 min) followed by a slower decline (t_1/2 = 67 min). Consistent with the majority of patients in the anhepatic phase, when we monitored HCV clearance at 37°C from culture medium in the absence/presence of chronically infected hepatoma cells that were inhibited from secreting HCV, the HCV t_1/2 in cell culture was longer in the absence of chronically HCV-infected cells. The results suggest that the liver plays a major role in the clearance of circulating HCV and that hepatocytes may be involved.

A hybrid PDE-ABM model for viral dynamics with application to SARS-CoV-2 and influenza

We propose a hybrid partial differential equation-agent-based (PDE-ABM) model to describe the spatio-temporal viral dynamics in a cell population. The virus concentration is considered as a continuous variable and virus movement is modelled by diffusion, while changes in the states of cells (i.e. healthy, infected, dead) are represented by a stochastic ABM. The two subsystems are intertwined: the probability of an agent getting infected in the ABM depends on the local viral concentration, and the source term of viral production in the PDE is determined by the cells that are infected. We develop a computational tool that allows us to study the hybrid system and the generated spatial patterns in detail. We systematically compare the outputs with a classical ODE system of viral dynamics, and find that the ODE model is a good approximation only if the diffusion coefficient is large. We demonstrate that the model is able to predict SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics, and replicate the output of in vitro experiments. Applying the model to influenza as well, we can gain insight into why the outcomes of these two infections are different.

Viral Kinetics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019

To determine the relationship between viral kinetics and severity of disease in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, we investigated the viral kinetics and compared the viral loads of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2), stratified by symptoms and severity. We determined the viral kinetics of 100 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 at Chosun University Hospital between February 2020 and May 2021 and analyzed the differences between asymptomatic, symptomatic, and nonsurvivor patients and between patients who died and those who survived. Clinical samples, comprising respiratory specimens (sputum samples and nasopharynx and oropharynx swab samples), were obtained at different time points of hospitalization, at 1, 3 to 5, 7, 10, 14, and 30 days. SARS-CoV-2 was detected using real-time reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR). All three groups, asymptomatic, symptomatic, and deceased patients, had higher numbers of viral copies at symptom onset, and the asymptomatic group had lower numbers of viral copies than the symptomatic or nonsurvivor group. Viral RNA release was detected until 30 days after symptom onset. The virus cleared up earlier in asymptomatic patients than in symptomatic and nonsurvivor patients, and it cleared up earlier in mildly affected patients than in severely affected patients. The cycle threshold values tended to be significantly lower in the group receiving steroids than in the nonsteroid group, even in the low-risk group with a pneumonia severity index of less than 90. The viral loads in patients with COVID-19 were significantly different according to disease severity and steroid use. IMPORTANCE In our study, we analyzed the viral kinetics of COVID-19 patients. Our study reveals differences in viral shedding according to the severity of disease in COVID-19 patients. Viral shedding had a longer duration in severely affected patients, and the cyclic threshold values were lower in the group receiving steroids. This study is expected to be helpful in analyzing the trend of the disease course according to steroid use and severity of SARS-CoV-2 disease.

Viral Load Kinetics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Hospitalized Individuals With Coronavirus Disease 2019

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) kinetics remain understudied, including the impact of remdesivir. In hospitalized individuals, peak sputum viral load occurred in week 2 of symptoms, whereas viremia peaked within 1 week of symptom-onset, suggesting early systemic seeding of SARS-CoV-2. Remdesivir treatment was associated with faster viral decay.

Mechanistic Modeling of a Novel Oncolytic Virus, V937, to Describe Viral Kinetic and Dynamic Processes Following Intratumoral and Intravenous Administration

V937 is an investigational novel oncolytic non-genetically modified Kuykendall strain of Coxsackievirus A21 which is in clinical development for the treatment of advanced solid tumor malignancies. V937 infects and lyses tumor cells expressing the intercellular adhesion molecule I (ICAM-I) receptor. We integrated in vitro and in vivo data from six different preclinical studies to build a mechanistic model that allowed a quantitative analysis of the biological processes of V937 viral kinetics and dynamics, viral distribution to tumor, and anti-tumor response elicited by V937 in human xenograft models in immunodeficient mice following intratumoral and intravenous administration. Estimates of viral infection and replication which were calculated from in vitro experiments were successfully used to describe the tumor response in vivo under various experimental conditions. Despite the predicted high clearance rate of V937 in systemic circulation (t_1/2 = 4.3 min), high viral replication was observed in immunodeficient mice which resulted in tumor shrinkage with both intratumoral and intravenous administration. The described framework represents a step towards the quantitative characterization of viral distribution, replication, and oncolytic effect of a novel oncolytic virus following intratumoral and intravenous administrations in the absence of an immune response. This model may further be expanded to integrate the role of the immune system on viral and tumor dynamics to support the clinical development of oncolytic viruses.

In vivo kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its relationship with a person's infectiousness

The within-host viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and how they relate to a person's infectiousness are not well understood. This limits our ability to quantify the impact of interventions on viral transmission. Here, we develop data-driven viral dynamic models of SARS-CoV-2 infection and estimate key within-host parameters such as the infected cell half-life and the within-host reproductive number. We then develop a model linking VL to infectiousness, showing that a person's infectiousness increases sub-linearly with VL. We show that the logarithm of the VL in the upper respiratory tract (URT) is a better surrogate of infectiousness than the VL itself. Using data on VL and the predicted infectiousness, we further incorporated data on antigen and reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests and compared their usefulness in detecting infection and preventing transmission. We found that RT-PCR tests perform better than antigen tests assuming equal testing frequency; however, more frequent antigen testing may perform equally well with RT-PCR tests at a lower cost, but with many more false-negative tests. Overall, our models provide a quantitative framework for inferring the impact of therapeutics and vaccines that lower VL on the infectiousness of individuals and for evaluating rapid testing strategies.

SIGNIFICANCE

Quantifying the kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and individual infectiousness is key to quantitatively understanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission and evaluating intervention strategies. Here we developed data-driven within-host models of SARS-CoV-2 infection and by fitting them to clinical data we estimated key within-host viral dynamic parameters. We also developed a mechanistic model for viral transmission and show that the logarithm of the viral load in the upper respiratory tract serves an appropriate surrogate for a person's infectiousness. Using data on how viral load changes during infection, we further evaluated the effectiveness of PCR and antigen-based testing strategies for averting transmission and identifying infected individuals.

Understanding Hepatitis B Virus Dynamics and the Antiviral Effect of Interferon Alpha Treatment in Humanized Chimeric Mice

Whereas the mode of action of lamivudine (LAM) against hepatitis B virus (HBV) is well established, the inhibition mechanism(s) of interferon alpha (IFN-α) is less completely defined. To advance our understanding, we mathematically modeled HBV kinetics during 14-day pegylated IFN-α-2a (pegIFN), LAM, or pegIFN-plus-LAM (pegIFN+LAM) treatment of 39 chronically HBV-infected humanized uPA/SCID chimeric mice. Serum HBV DNA and intracellular HBV DNA were measured frequently. We developed a multicompartmental mathematical model and simultaneously fit it to the serum and intracellular HBV DNA data. Unexpectedly, even in the absence of an adaptive immune response, a biphasic decline in serum HBV DNA and intracellular HBV DNA was observed in response to all treatments. Kinetic analysis and modeling indicate that the first phase represents inhibition of intracellular HBV DNA synthesis and secretion, which was similar under all treatments with an overall mean efficacy of 98%. In contrast, there were distinct differences in HBV decline during the second phase, which was accounted for in the model by a time-dependent inhibition of intracellular HBV DNA synthesis, with the steepest decline observed during pegIFN+LAM treatment (1.28/day) and the slowest (0.1/day) during pegIFN monotherapy. Reminiscent of observations in patients treated with pegIFN and/or LAM, a biphasic HBV decline was observed in treated humanized mice in the absence of an adaptive immune response. Interestingly, combination treatment did not increase the initial inhibition of HBV production but rather enhanced second-phase decline, providing insight into the dynamics of HBV treatment response and the mode of action of IFN-α against HBV. IMPORTANCE Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a global health care problem, as we lack sufficient curative treatment options. Elucidating the dynamics of HBV infection and treatment response at the molecular level could facilitate the development of novel, more effective HBV antivirals. Currently, the only well-established small animal HBV infection model available is the chimeric uPA/SCID mice with humanized livers; however, the HBV inhibition kinetics under pegylated IFN-α-2a (pegIFN) in this model system have not been determined in sufficient detail. In this study, viral kinetics in 39 humanized mice treated with pegIFN and/or lamivudine were monitored and analyzed using a mathematical modeling approach. We found that the main mode of action of IFN-α is blocking HBV DNA synthesis and that the majority of synthesized HBV DNA is secreted. Our study provides novel insights into HBV DNA dynamics within infected human hepatocytes.

Clinical Implications of Serum Hepatitis B Virus Pregenomic RNA Kinetics in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients Receiving Antiviral Treatment and Those Achieving HBsAg Loss

Serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) pregenomic RNA (pgRNA) is correlated with covalently closed circular DNA. We aimed to investigate the utility of serum HBV pgRNA in chronic hepatitis B patients receiving nucleos(t)ide analogue treatment and those achieving HBsAg loss. One hundred and eighty-five patients were enrolled for studying long-term HBV pgRNA kinetics during treatment. Twenty patients achieving HBsAg loss after treatment were enrolled for examining HBV pgRNA kinetics around HBsAg loss. HBV pgRNA significantly decreased in the high baseline HBV pgRNA (≥6 log copies/mL) group but significantly increased in the low baseline HBV pgRNA (<4 log copies/mL) group after 3-month entecavir treatment. Among the 20 patients achieving HBsAg loss, 13 (65%) patients had serum HBV pgRNA higher than the limit of detection (LOD, 1466 copies/mL) when they achieved HBsAg loss. Finally, all 20 patients had HBV pgRNA going below the LOD within 3 years after achieving HBsAg loss. In conclusion, baseline serum HBV pgRNA alone is insufficient for predicting the trajectory of HBV pgRNA. Most patients still had HBV pgRNA higher than the LOD when they achieved HBsAg loss. Further studies on HBV pgRNA kinetics around HBsAg loss would provide an enhanced basis for further applications of HBV pgRNA.

Epidemiology, clinical spectrum, viral kinetics and impact of COVID-19 in the Asia-Pacific region

COVID-19 has hit the world by surprise, causing substantial mortality and morbidity since 2020. This narrative review aims to provide an overview of the epidemiology, induced impact, viral kinetics and clinical spectrum of COVID-19 in the Asia-Pacific Region, focusing on regions previously exposed to outbreaks of coronavirus. COVID-19 progressed differently by regions, with some (such as China and Taiwan) featured by one to two epidemic waves and some (such as Hong Kong and South Korea) featured by multiple waves. There has been no consensus on the estimates of important epidemiological time intervals or proportions, such that using them for making inferences should be done with caution. Viral loads of patients with COVID-19 peak in the first week of illness around days 2 to 4 and hence there is very high transmission potential causing community outbreaks. Various strategies such as government-guided and suppress-and-lift strategies, trigger-based/suppression approaches and alert systems have been employed to guide the adoption and easing of control measures. Asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission is a hallmark of COVID-19. Identification and isolation of symptomatic patients alone is not effective in controlling the ongoing outbreaks. However, early, prompt and coordinated enactment predisposed regions to successful disease containment. Mass COVID-19 vaccinations are likely to be the light at the end of the tunnel. There is a need to review what we have learnt in this pandemic and examine how to transfer and improve existing knowledge for ongoing and future epidemics.