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Henry KE, Giannini HM. Early Warning Systems for Critical Illness Outside the Intensive Care Unit. Crit Care Clin 2024; 40:561-581. [PMID: 38796228 DOI: 10.1016/j.ccc.2024.03.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/28/2024]
Abstract
Early warning systems (EWSs) are designed and deployed to create a rapid assessment and response for patients with clinical deterioration outside the intensive care unit (ICU). These models incorporate patient-level data such as vital signs and laboratory values to detect or prevent adverse clinical events, such as vital signs and laboratories to allow detection and prevention of adverse clinical events such as cardiac arrest, intensive care transfer, or sepsis. The applicability, development, clinical utility, and general perception of EWS in clinical practice vary widely. Here, we review the field as it has grown from early vital sign-based scoring systems to contemporary multidimensional algorithms and predictive technologies for clinical decompensation outside the ICU.
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Chua WL, Rusli KDB, Aitken LM. Early warning scores for sepsis identification and prediction of in-hospital mortality in adults with sepsis: A systematic review and meta-analysis. J Clin Nurs 2024; 33:2005-2018. [PMID: 38379353 DOI: 10.1111/jocn.17061] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2023] [Revised: 01/04/2024] [Accepted: 01/23/2024] [Indexed: 02/22/2024]
Abstract
AIM The early warning scores (EWS), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria have been proposed as sepsis screening tools. This review aims to summarise and compare the performance of EWS with the qSOFA and SIRS criteria for predicting sepsis diagnosis and in-hospital mortality in patients with sepsis. DESIGN A systematic review with meta-analysis. REVIEW METHODS Seven databases were searched from January 1, 2016 until March 10, 2022. Study quality was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 tool. Sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and diagnostic odd ratios were pooled by using the bivariate random effects model. Overall performance was summarised by using the hierarchical summary receiver-operating characteristics curve. This paper adhered to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses of Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies (PRISMA-DTA) guidelines. RESULTS Ten studies involving 52,474 subjects were included in the review. For predicting sepsis diagnosis, the pooled sensitivity of EWS (65%, 95% CI: 55, 75) was similar to SIRS ≥2 (70%, 95% CI: 49, 85) and higher than qSOFA ≥2 (37%, 95% CI: 20, 59). The pooled specificity of EWS (77%, 95% CI: 64, 86) was higher than SIRS ≥2 (62%, 95% CI: 41, 80) but lower than qSOFA ≥2 (94%, 95% CI: 86, 98). Results were similar for the secondary outcome of in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS Although no one scoring system had both high sensitivity and specificity, the EWS had at least equivalent values in most measures of diagnostic accuracy compared with SIRS or qSOFA. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROFESSION Healthcare systems in which EWS is already in place should consider whether there is any clinical benefit in adopting qSOFA or SIRS. NO PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION This systematic review did not directly involve patient or public contribution to the manuscript.
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Payne VL, Sattar U, Wright M, Hill E, Butler JM, Macpherson B, Jeppesen A, Del Fiol G, Madaras-Kelly K. Clinician perspectives on how situational context and augmented intelligence design features impact perceived usefulness of sepsis prediction scores embedded within a simulated electronic health record. J Am Med Inform Assoc 2024; 31:1331-1340. [PMID: 38661564 PMCID: PMC11105126 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocae089] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2024] [Revised: 03/04/2024] [Accepted: 04/05/2024] [Indexed: 04/26/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Obtain clinicians' perspectives on early warning scores (EWS) use within context of clinical cases. MATERIAL AND METHODS We developed cases mimicking sepsis situations. De-identified data, synthesized physician notes, and EWS representing deterioration risk were displayed in a simulated EHR for analysis. Twelve clinicians participated in semi-structured interviews to ascertain perspectives across four domains: (1) Familiarity with and understanding of artificial intelligence (AI), prediction models and risk scores; (2) Clinical reasoning processes; (3) Impression and response to EWS; and (4) Interface design. Transcripts were coded and analyzed using content and thematic analysis. RESULTS Analysis revealed clinicians have experience but limited AI and prediction/risk modeling understanding. Case assessments were primarily based on clinical data. EWS went unmentioned during initial case analysis; although when prompted to comment on it, they discussed it in subsequent cases. Clinicians were unsure how to interpret or apply the EWS, and desired evidence on its derivation and validation. Design recommendations centered around EWS display in multi-patient lists for triage, and EWS trends within the patient record. Themes included a "Trust but Verify" approach to AI and early warning information, dichotomy that EWS is helpful for triage yet has disproportional signal-to-high noise ratio, and action driven by clinical judgment, not the EWS. CONCLUSIONS Clinicians were unsure of how to apply EWS, acted on clinical data, desired score composition and validation information, and felt EWS was most useful when embedded in multi-patient views. Systems providing interactive visualization may facilitate EWS transparency and increase confidence in AI-generated information.
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Mitchell EJ, Aluvaala J, Bradshaw L, Daniels JP, Emadau C, Muthumbi B, Nabwera H, Ojee E, Opira J, Pallotti P, Qureshi Z, Sigei M, Su Y, Swinden R, Were F, Ojha S. A mixed-methods study to investigate feasibility and acceptability of an early warning score for preterm infants in neonatal units in Kenya: results of the NEWS-K study : Neonatal early warning scores in Kenya. BMC Pediatr 2024; 24:326. [PMID: 38734617 PMCID: PMC11088162 DOI: 10.1186/s12887-024-04778-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2023] [Accepted: 04/19/2024] [Indexed: 05/13/2024] Open
Abstract
Preterm birth (< 37 weeks gestation) complications are the leading cause of neonatal mortality. Early-warning scores (EWS) are charts where vital signs (e.g., temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate) are recorded, triggering action. To evaluate whether a neonatal EWS improves clinical outcomes in low-middle income countries, a randomised trial is needed. Determining whether the use of a neonatal EWS is feasible and acceptable in newborn units, is a prerequisite to conducting a trial. We implemented a neonatal EWS in three newborn units in Kenya. Staff were asked to record infants' vital signs on the EWS during the study, triggering additional interventions as per existing local guidelines. No other aspects of care were altered. Feasibility criteria were pre-specified. We also interviewed health professionals (n = 28) and parents/family members (n = 42) to hear their opinions of the EWS. Data were collected on 465 preterm and/or low birthweight (< 2.5 kg) infants. In addition to qualitative study participants, 45 health professionals in participating hospitals also completed an online survey to share their views on the EWS. 94% of infants had the EWS completed at least once during their newborn unit admission. EWS completion was highest on the day of admission (93%). Completion rates were similar across shifts. 15% of vital signs triggered escalation to a more senior member of staff. Health professionals reported liking the EWS, though recognised the biggest barrier to implementation was poor staffing. Newborn unit infant to staff ratios varied between 10 and 53 staff per 1 infant, depending upon time of shift and staff type. A randomised trial of neonatal EWS in Kenya is possible and acceptable, though adaptations are required to the form before implementation.
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Gallo RJ, Shieh L, Smith M, Marafino BJ, Geldsetzer P, Asch SM, Shum K, Lin S, Westphal J, Hong G, Li RC. Effectiveness of an Artificial Intelligence-Enabled Intervention for Detecting Clinical Deterioration. JAMA Intern Med 2024; 184:557-562. [PMID: 38526472 PMCID: PMC10964159 DOI: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2024.0084] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2023] [Accepted: 01/04/2024] [Indexed: 03/26/2024]
Abstract
Importance Inpatient clinical deterioration is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality but may be easily missed by clinicians. Early warning scores have been developed to alert clinicians to patients at high risk of clinical deterioration, but there is limited evidence for their effectiveness. Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of an artificial intelligence deterioration model-enabled intervention to reduce the risk of escalations in care among hospitalized patients using a study design that facilitates stronger causal inference. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study used a regression discontinuity design that controlled for confounding and was based on Epic Deterioration Index (EDI; Epic Systems Corporation) prediction model scores. Compared with other observational research, the regression discontinuity design facilitates causal analysis. Hospitalized adults were included from 4 general internal medicine units in 1 academic hospital from January 17, 2021, through November 16, 2022. Exposure An artificial intelligence deterioration model-enabled intervention, consisting of alerts based on an EDI score threshold with an associated collaborative workflow among nurses and physicians. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was escalations in care, including rapid response team activation, transfer to the intensive care unit, or cardiopulmonary arrest during hospitalization. Results During the study, 9938 patients were admitted to 1 of the 4 units, with 963 patients (median [IQR] age, 76.1 [64.2-86.2] years; 498 males [52.3%]) included within the primary regression discontinuity analysis. The median (IQR) Elixhauser Comorbidity Index score in the primary analysis cohort was 10 (0-24). The intervention was associated with a -10.4-percentage point (95% CI, -20.1 to -0.8 percentage points; P = .03) absolute risk reduction in the primary outcome for patients at the EDI score threshold. There was no evidence of a discontinuity in measured confounders at the EDI score threshold. Conclusions and Relevance Using a regression discontinuity design, this cohort study found that the implementation of an artificial intelligence deterioration model-enabled intervention was associated with a significantly decreased risk of escalations in care among inpatients. These results provide evidence for the effectiveness of this intervention and support its further expansion and testing in other care settings.
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Ke JJ, Hong GL. [Research progress in emergency assessment of acute poisoning]. ZHONGHUA LAO DONG WEI SHENG ZHI YE BING ZA ZHI = ZHONGHUA LAODONG WEISHENG ZHIYEBING ZAZHI = CHINESE JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL HYGIENE AND OCCUPATIONAL DISEASES 2024; 42:312-315. [PMID: 38678000 DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn121094-20230329-00107] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/29/2024]
Abstract
Acute poisoning represents a prevalent critical illness jeopardizing patient survival. Early, precise assessment of the condition and subsequent appropriate therapeutic intervention are pivotal in enhancing treatment success rates. Currently, a standardized approach to evaluating the severity of acute poisoning is lacking. Various scoring systems, including Poisoning Severity Score (PSS) , Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) , and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) , offer valuable insights into acute poisoning assessment. Nevertheless, the distinct attributes of each scoring system constrain their broad clinical utility. Confronted with the intricate clinical demands of acute poisoning, the adoption of staged and dynamic assessment strategies is imperative to ascertain the condition of acute poisoning patients with greater accuracy.
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Woolfe Loftus N, Navales V, Bowden T. Using the NEWS2 and ABCDE assessment to identify early signs of clinical deterioration. Nurs Stand 2024; 39:40-45. [PMID: 38523526 DOI: 10.7748/ns.2024.e12188] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/06/2023] [Indexed: 03/26/2024]
Abstract
Nurses may encounter deteriorating patients in their clinical practice, so they require an understanding of the early physiological signs of deterioration and a structured approach to patient assessment. This enables appropriate management and a timely response to the most life-threatening issues identified, such as a compromised airway. This article describes how nurses can use early warning scores and a structured patient assessment, using the ABCDE (airway, breathing, circulation, disability, exposure) framework, to identify early signs of deterioration and facilitate the timely escalation of patient care where necessary.
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Commotio S, Leister N, Menzel C, Ulrichs C, Wetsch WA, Emmel M, Trieschmann U. Evaluation of a modified paediatric early warning score for children with congenital heart disease. Cardiol Young 2024; 34:637-642. [PMID: 37694525 DOI: 10.1017/s1047951123003189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Paediatric early warning score systems are used for early detection of clinical deterioration of patients in paediatric wards. Several paediatric early warning scores have been developed, but most of them are not suitable for children with cyanotic CHD who are adapted to lower arterial oxygen saturation. AIM The present study compared the original paediatric early warning system of the Royal College of Physicians of Ireland with a modification for children with cyanotic CHD. DESIGN Retrospective single-centre study in a paediatric cardiology intermediate care unit at a German university hospital. RESULTS The distribution of recorded values showed a significant shift towards higher score values in patients with cyanotic CHD (p < 0.001) using the original score, but not with the modification. An analysis of sensitivity and specificity for the factor "requirement of action" showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic for non-cyanotic patients of 0.908 (95% CI 0.862-0.954). For patients with cyanotic CHD, using the original score, the area under the receiver operating characteristic was reduced to 0.731 (95% CI 0.637-0.824, p = 0.001) compared to 0.862 (95% CI 0.809-0.915, p = 0.207), when the modified score was used. Using the critical threshold of scores ≥ 4 in patients with cyanotic CHD, sensitivity and specificity for the modified score was higher than for the original (sensitivity 78.8 versus 72.7%, specificity 78.2 versus 58.4%). CONCLUSION The modified score is a uniform scoring system for identifying clinical deterioration, which can be used in children with and without cyanotic CHD.
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Doğan NÖ, Özturan İU, Pekdemir M, Yaka E, Yılmaz S. Prognostic value of early warning scores in patients presenting to the emergency department with exacerbation of COPD. Med Klin Intensivmed Notfmed 2024; 119:129-135. [PMID: 37401954 DOI: 10.1007/s00063-023-01036-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/02/2023] [Revised: 05/24/2023] [Accepted: 06/03/2023] [Indexed: 07/05/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is a condition that frequently presents to the emergency department (ED) and its prognosis is not very well understood. Risk tools that can be used rapidly in the ED are needed to predict the prognosis of these patients. METHODS This study comprised a retrospective cohort of AECOPD patients presenting to a single center between 2015 and 2022. The prognostic accuracy of several clinical early warning scoring systems, Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), NEWS‑2, Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) and the quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), were compared. The outcome variable was determined as one-month mortality. RESULTS Of the 598 patients, 63 (10.5%) had died within 1 month after presenting to the ED. Patients who died had more often congestive heart failure, altered mental status, and admission to intensive care, and they were older. Although the MEWS, NEWS, NEWS‑2, and qSOFA scores of those who died were higher than those who survived, there was no difference between the SIRS scores of these two groups. The score with the highest positive likelihood ratio for mortality estimation was qSOFA (8.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.7-19.6). The negative likelihood ratios of the scores were similar, the NEWS score had a negative likelihood ratio of 0.4 (95% CI 0.2-0.8) with the highest negative predictive value of 96.0%. CONCLUSION In AECOPD patients, most of the early warning scores that are frequently used in the ED were found to have a moderate ability to exclude mortality and a low ability to predict mortality.
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Bamkole O, Huysentruyt K, Watson J, De Mulder N, Katsagoni CN, Chaloutsi D, Kontostavlou M, Pancheva R, Vladimirova I, Gerasimidis K. Clinical performance of the infant nutrition early warning score in routine practice across four international clinical settings in Europe: A study by the ESPGHAN special interest group in clinical malnutrition. J Pediatr Gastroenterol Nutr 2024; 78:704-710. [PMID: 38314914 DOI: 10.1002/jpn3.12123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2023] [Revised: 12/19/2023] [Accepted: 01/02/2024] [Indexed: 02/07/2024]
Abstract
There is a scarcity of nutritional screening tools for use in infants (<1 year). The infant Nutrition Early Warning Score (iNEWS) has been developed to identify infants who need further dietetic review. We introduced the iNEWS into clinical practice and evaluated its performance in Scotland, Belgium, Athens and Bulgaria. Of the 352 infants screened, 72 (20%) were placed in the high iNEWS category, and of these, 70 (97%) were reviewed by a hospital dietitian. iNEWS produced a true positive rate of 80% which increased to 96% after accounting for anticipated misclassified cases due to prematurity. In Belgium, false positive screens had a shorter length of stay (p = 0.014). Otherwise, misclassification was not related to a specific iNEWS component. This study corroborates previous research, underscoring the validity of iNEWS as a dietetic referral tool and demonstrating that it can be integrated into "real-world" clinical practice across international settings with diverse healthcare resources.
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Le Lagadec MD, Flenady T, Cleary M. Finally, a new Early Warning Score supporting critical thinking. J Adv Nurs 2024; 80:1241-1242. [PMID: 38018021 DOI: 10.1111/jan.16001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2023] [Accepted: 11/19/2023] [Indexed: 11/30/2023]
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Goodacre S, Sutton L, Ennis K, Thomas B, Hawksworth O, Iftikhar K, Croft SJ, Fuller G, Waterhouse S, Hind D, Stevenson M, Bradburn MJ, Smyth M, Perkins GD, Millins M, Rosser A, Dickson J, Wilson M. Prehospital early warning scores for adults with suspected sepsis: the PHEWS observational cohort and decision-analytic modelling study. Health Technol Assess 2024; 28:1-93. [PMID: 38551135 PMCID: PMC11017155 DOI: 10.3310/ndty2403] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Guidelines for sepsis recommend treating those at highest risk within 1 hour. The emergency care system can only achieve this if sepsis is recognised and prioritised. Ambulance services can use prehospital early warning scores alongside paramedic diagnostic impression to prioritise patients for treatment or early assessment in the emergency department. Objectives To determine the accuracy, impact and cost-effectiveness of using early warning scores alongside paramedic diagnostic impression to identify sepsis requiring urgent treatment. Design Retrospective diagnostic cohort study and decision-analytic modelling of operational consequences and cost-effectiveness. Setting Two ambulance services and four acute hospitals in England. Participants Adults transported to hospital by emergency ambulance, excluding episodes with injury, mental health problems, cardiac arrest, direct transfer to specialist services, or no vital signs recorded. Interventions Twenty-one early warning scores used alongside paramedic diagnostic impression, categorised as sepsis, infection, non-specific presentation, or other specific presentation. Main outcome measures Proportion of cases prioritised at the four hospitals; diagnostic accuracy for the sepsis-3 definition of sepsis and receiving urgent treatment (primary reference standard); daily number of cases with and without sepsis prioritised at a large and a small hospital; the minimum treatment effect associated with prioritisation at which each strategy would be cost-effective, compared to no prioritisation, assuming willingness to pay £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Results Data from 95,022 episodes involving 71,204 patients across four hospitals showed that most early warning scores operating at their pre-specified thresholds would prioritise more than 10% of cases when applied to non-specific attendances or all attendances. Data from 12,870 episodes at one hospital identified 348 (2.7%) with the primary reference standard. The National Early Warning Score, version 2 (NEWS2), had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve when applied only to patients with a paramedic diagnostic impression of sepsis or infection (0.756, 95% confidence interval 0.729 to 0.783) or sepsis alone (0.655, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 0.68). None of the strategies provided high sensitivity (> 0.8) with acceptable positive predictive value (> 0.15). NEWS2 provided combinations of sensitivity and specificity that were similar or superior to all other early warning scores. Applying NEWS2 to paramedic diagnostic impression of sepsis or infection with thresholds of > 4, > 6 and > 8 respectively provided sensitivities and positive predictive values (95% confidence interval) of 0.522 (0.469 to 0.574) and 0.216 (0.189 to 0.245), 0.447 (0.395 to 0.499) and 0.274 (0.239 to 0.313), and 0.314 (0.268 to 0.365) and 0.333 (confidence interval 0.284 to 0.386). The mortality relative risk reduction from prioritisation at which each strategy would be cost-effective exceeded 0.975 for all strategies analysed. Limitations We estimated accuracy using a sample of older patients at one hospital. Reliable evidence was not available to estimate the effectiveness of prioritisation in the decision-analytic modelling. Conclusions No strategy is ideal but using NEWS2, in patients with a paramedic diagnostic impression of infection or sepsis could identify one-third to half of sepsis cases without prioritising unmanageable numbers. No other score provided clearly superior accuracy to NEWS2. Research is needed to develop better definition, diagnosis and treatments for sepsis. Study registration This study is registered as Research Registry (reference: researchregistry5268). Funding This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 17/136/10) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 16. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.
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Castro Villamor MA, Alonso-Sanz M, López-Izquierdo R, Delgado Benito JF, Del Pozo Vegas C, López Torres S, Soriano JB, Martín-Conty JL, Sanz-García A, Martín-Rodríguez F. Comparison of eight prehospital early warning scores in life-threatening acute respiratory distress: a prospective, observational, multicentre, ambulance-based, external validation study. Lancet Digit Health 2024; 6:e166-e175. [PMID: 38395538 DOI: 10.1016/s2589-7500(23)00243-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2023] [Revised: 09/26/2023] [Accepted: 11/22/2023] [Indexed: 02/25/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND A myriad of early warning scores (EWSs) exist, yet there is a need to identify the most clinically valid score to be used in prehospital respiratory assessments to estimate short-term and midterm mortality, intensive-care unit admission, and airway management in life-threatening acute respiratory distress. METHODS This is a prospective, observational, multicentre, ambulance-based, external validation study performed in 44 ambulance services and four hospitals across three Spanish provinces (ie, Salamanca, Segovia, and Valladolid). We identified adults (ie, those aged 18 years and older) discharged to the emergency department with suspected acute respiratory distress. The primary outcome was 2-day all-cause in-hospital mortality, for all the patients or according to prehospital respiratory conditions, including dyspnoea, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), COVID-19, other infections, and other conditions (asthma exacerbation, haemoptysis, and bronchoaspirations). 30-day mortality, intensive-care unit admission, and invasive and non-invasive mechanical ventilation were secondary outcomes. Eight EWSs, namely, the National Early Warning Score 2, the Modified Rapid Emergency Medicine Score, the Rapid Acute Physiology Score, the Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score, the CURB-65 Severity Score for Community-Acquired Pneumonia, the BAP-65 Score for Acute Exacerbation of COPD, the Quick COVID-19 Severity Index, and the Modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (mSOFA), were explored to determine their predictive validity through calibration, clinical net benefit as determined through decision curve analysis, and discrimination analysis (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic [AUROC], compared with Delong's test). FINDINGS Between Jan 1, 2020, and Nov 31, 2022, 902 patients were enrolled. The global 2-day mortality rate was 87 (10%); in proportion to various respiratory conditions, the rates were 35 (40%) for dyspnoea, nine (10%) for COPD, 13 (15%) for COVID-19, 28 (32%) for other infections, and two (2%) for others conditions. mSOFA showed the best calibration, a higher net benefit, and the best discrimination (AUROC 0·911, 95% CI 0·86-0·95) for predicting 2-day mortality, and its discrimination was statistically significantly more accurate (p<0·0001) compared with the other scores. The performance of mSOFA for predicting 2-day mortality was higher than the other scores when considering the prehospital respiratory conditions, and was also higher for the secondary outcomes, except for non-invasive mechanical ventilation. INTERPRETATION Our results showed that mSOFA outperformed other EWSs. The inclusion of mSOFA in prehospital decision making will entail a quick identification of patients in acute respiratory distress at high risk of deterioration, allowing prioritisation of resources and patient care. FUNDING Gerencia Regional de Salud, Public Health System of Castilla y León (GRS Spain). TRANSLATION For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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Küçükceran K, Ayrancı MK, Koçak S, Girişgin AS, Dündar ZD, Ataman S, Bayındır E, Karaçadır O, Tatar İ, Doğru M. An Evaluation of the National Early Warning Score 2 and the Laboratory Data Decision Tree Early Warning Score in Predicting Mortality in Geriatric Patients. J Emerg Med 2024; 66:e284-e292. [PMID: 38278676 DOI: 10.1016/j.jemermed.2023.10.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2023] [Revised: 09/02/2023] [Accepted: 10/01/2023] [Indexed: 01/28/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Due to the high rate of geriatric patient visits, scoring systems are needed to predict increasing mortality rates. OBJECTIVE In this study, we aimed to investigate the in-hospital mortality prediction power of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and the Laboratory Data Decision Tree Early Warning Score (LDT-EWS), which consists of frequently performed laboratory parameters. METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 651 geriatric patients who visited the emergency department (ED), were not discharged on the same day from ED, and were hospitalized. The patients were categorized according to their in-hospital mortality status. The NEWS2 and LDT-EWS values of these patients were calculated and compared on the basis of deceased and living patients. RESULTS Median (interquartile range [IQR]) NEWS2 and LDT-EWS values of the 127 patients who died were found to be statistically significantly higher than those of the patients who survived (NEWS2: 5 [3-8] vs. 3 [1-5]; p < 0.001; LDT-EWS: 8 [7-10] vs. 6 [5-8]; p < 0.001). In the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the NEWS2, LDT-EWS, and NEWS2+LDT-EWS-formed by the sum of the two scoring systems-resulted in 0.717, 0.705, and 0.775 area under curve values, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The NEWS2 and LDT-EWS were found to be valuable for predicting in-hospital mortality in geriatric patients. The power of the NEWS2 to predict in-hospital mortality increased when used with the LDT-EWS.
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Stevens J, de Groot J, Luijmes M, Bouwens J, Rippen H, Hoogervorst-Schilp J, Fuijkschot J. Study protocol of a national multicentre prospective evaluation study assessing the validity and impact of the Dutch Paediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) in the Netherlands. BMJ Paediatr Open 2024; 8:e002214. [PMID: 38325899 PMCID: PMC10860074 DOI: 10.1136/bmjpo-2023-002214] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2023] [Accepted: 12/21/2023] [Indexed: 02/09/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Early recognition of clinical deterioration and timely intervention are important to improve morbidity and mortality in paediatric care. The Paediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) is a scoring system aiming to identify hospitalised children at risk for deterioration. Currently, there is a large heterogeneity of PEWS systems in the Netherlands, with a considerable number remaining unvalidated or self-designed. Therefore, a consensus-based Dutch PEWS has been developed in a national study using the Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials initiative. The Dutch PEWS is a uniform system that integrates a core set of vital parameters together with pre-existing risk factors and uses risk stratification to proactively follow-up on patients at risk (so-called 'watcher patients'). This study aims to validate the Dutch PEWS and to determine its impact on improving patient safety in various hospital settings. METHODS AND ANALYSIS This national study will be a large multicentre evaluation study, in which the Dutch PEWS will be implemented and evaluated in 12 hospitals in the Netherlands. In this study, a mixed methods methodology will be used and evaluated on predefined outcome measures. To examine the validity of the Dutch PEWS, statistical analyses will be undertaken on quantitative data retrieved from electronic health records. Surveys among physicians and nurses; semistructured interviews with healthcare providers and parents; and daily evaluation forms are being conducted to determine the impact of the Dutch PEWS. The study is being conducted from December 2020 to June 2024.
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Akarca M, Ozturk TC, Patan T, Dogan FS, Akoglu EU. Comparison of Early Warning Scores in Determining the Prognosis of COVID-19 Patients. J Coll Physicians Surg Pak 2024; 34:166-171. [PMID: 38342866 DOI: 10.29271/jcpsp.2024.02.166] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2023] [Accepted: 01/18/2024] [Indexed: 02/13/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To compare the effectiveness of early warning score systems in predicting 30-day poor outcomes in Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) patients admitted to the emergency department. STUDY DESIGN Descriptive study. Place and and Duration of the Study: Fatih Sultan Mehmet Education and Research Hospital, Istanbul, Turkiye, from March 2020 to March 2021. METHODOLOGY The patients who presented to the emergency department, diagnosed with COVID-19 and tested positive for polymerase chain reaction were analysed. The study included the calculation of the rapid emergency medicine score, risk stratification in the emergency department in acutely ill older patients score, 4C mortality score, and modified early warning score for the patients. These scores were then compared in terms of their ability to predict adverse outcomes, defined as intensive care admission and/or mortality. RESULTS During the study period, 10,281 COVID-19 patients were admitted to the emergency department. Out of them, 1,826 patients were included in the study. There were 159 (8.7%) cases with poor outcomes. The risk stratification in the emergency department in acutely ill older patients Score was the most successful in poor prognosis. CONCLUSION Based on the findings of this study, the risk stratification in the emergency department in acutely ill older patients score demonstrated greater efficacy compared to other early warning scores in identifying patients diagnosed with COVID-19 who had an early indication of a poor prognosis. KEY WORDS Early warning score, 4C mortality score, REMS, Rise-up score, MEWS, Emergency department, COVID-19.
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Lam RPK, Hung KKC, Lui CT, Kwok WS, Lam WWT, Lau EHY, Sridhar S, Ng PYT, Cheng CH, Tsang TC, Tsui MSH, Graham CA, Rainer TH. Early sepsis care with the National Early Warning Score 2-guided Sepsis Hour-1 Bundle in the emergency department: hybrid type 1 effectiveness-implementation pilot stepped wedge randomised controlled trial (NEWS-1 TRIPS) protocol. BMJ Open 2024; 14:e080676. [PMID: 38307529 PMCID: PMC10836386 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-080676] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2023] [Accepted: 01/24/2024] [Indexed: 02/04/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Early sepsis treatment in the emergency department (ED) is crucial to improve patient survival. Despite international promulgation, the uptake of the Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) Hour-1 Bundle (lactate measurement, blood culture, broad-spectrum antibiotics, 30 mL/kg crystalloid for hypotension/lactate ≥4 mmol/L and vasopressors for hypotension during/after fluid resuscitation within 1 hour of sepsis recognition) is low across healthcare settings. Delays in sepsis recognition and a lack of high-quality evidence hinder its implementation. We propose a novel sepsis care model (National Early Warning Score, NEWS-1 care), in which the SSC Hour-1 Bundle is triggered objectively by a high NEWS-2 (≥5). This study aims to determine the feasibility of a full-scale type 1 hybrid effectiveness-implementation trial on the NEWS-1 care in multiple EDs. METHODS AND ANALYSIS We will conduct a pilot type 1 hybrid trial and prospectively recruit 200 patients from 4 public EDs in Hong Kong cluster randomised in a stepped wedge design over 10 months. All study sites will start with an initial period of standard care and switch in random order at 2-month intervals to the NEWS-1 care unidirectionally. The implementation evaluation will employ mixed methods guided by the Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation and Maintenance framework, which includes qualitative and quantitative data from focus group interviews, staff survey and clinical record reviews. We will analyse the 14 feasibility outcomes as progression criteria to a full-scale trial, including trial acceptability to patients and staff, patient and staff recruitment rates, accuracy of sepsis screening, protocol adherence, accessibility to follow-up data, safety and preliminary clinical impacts of the NEWS1 care, using descriptive statistics. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION The institutional review boards of all study sites approved this study. This study will establish the feasibility of a full-scale hybrid trial. We will disseminate the findings through peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations and educational activities. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT05731349.
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Gonem S, Lemberger J, Baguneid A, Briggs S, McKeever TM, Shaw D. Real-world implementation of the National Early Warning Score-2 in an acute respiratory unit. BMJ Open Respir Res 2024; 11:e002095. [PMID: 38296608 PMCID: PMC10831462 DOI: 10.1136/bmjresp-2023-002095] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2023] [Accepted: 01/09/2024] [Indexed: 02/03/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The National Early Warning Score-2 (NEWS-2) is used to detect deteriorating patients in hospital settings. We aimed to understand how NEWS-2 functions in the real-life setting of an acute respiratory unit. METHODS Clinical observations data were extracted for adult patients (age ≥18 years), admitted under the care of respiratory medicine services from July to December 2019, who had at least one recorded task relating to clinical deterioration. The timing and nature of urgent out-of-hours medical reviews (escalations) were extracted through manual review of the case notes. RESULTS The data set comprised 765 admission episodes (48.9% women) with a mean (SD) age of 69.3 (14.8). 8971 out of 35 991 out-of-hours observation sets (24.9%) had a NEWS-2 ≥5, and 586 of these (6.5%) led to an escalation. Out of 687 escalations, 101 (14.7%) were associated with observation sets with NEWS-2<5. Rising oxygen requirement and extreme values of individual observations were associated with an increased risk of escalation. 57.6% of escalations resulted in a change in treatment. Inpatient mortality was higher in patients who were escalated at least once, compared with those who were not escalated. CONCLUSIONS Most observation sets with NEWS-2 scores ≥5 did not lead to a medical escalation in an acute respiratory setting out-of-hours, but more than half of escalations resulted in a change in treatment. Rising oxygen requirement is a key indicator of respiratory patient acuity which appears to influence the decision to request urgent out-of-hours medical reviews.
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Sanz-García A, López-Izquierdo R, Martín-Rodríguez F. Editorial: Biomarkers and early warning scores: the time for high-precision emergency medicine. Front Public Health 2024; 11:1349881. [PMID: 38259794 PMCID: PMC10800566 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1349881] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2023] [Accepted: 12/19/2023] [Indexed: 01/24/2024] Open
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Tang Q, Xie X, Li D. Enhancing Nursing Care for Children with Acute Gastroenteritis: Integrating Pediatric Early Warning Scores with the Situation-Background-Assessment-Recommendation System. Altern Ther Health Med 2024; 30:386-390. [PMID: 37793338] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/06/2023]
Abstract
Background Acute gastroenteritis is a frequently encountered diarrheal illness in children, often self-limiting but occasionally linked to substantial mortality and morbidity, demanding effective approaches for assessment and intervention. While the utilization of the Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) and the Situation-Background-Assessment-Recommendation system (SBAR) in pediatric patient management is recognized as effective, research in this area remains limited. Objective Our study aimed to investigate the potential impact of PEWS and SBAR systems on the outcomes of pediatric patients with acute gastroenteritis. Methods We conducted a randomized controlled trial at our hospital, enrolling 124 children aged 3 to 12 years diagnosed with acute gastroenteritis. These participants were randomly assigned to either a control group (62 cases) or an intervention group (62 cases). Different outcomes were assessed, including the frequency and duration of diarrhea and vomiting, the Modified Vesikari Scale (MVS), the Clinical Dehydration Scale (CDS), and follow-up physician visits. We utilized a two-group independent sample t test to compare outcomes between the two groups. Results Our study resulted in statistically significant findings favoring the intervention group regarding the frequency and duration of diarrhea and vomiting, the MVS, the CDS, and the need for repeat healthcare visits. Conclusions The integration of PEWS with SBAR appears to offer improved outcomes for children afflicted with acute gastroenteritis.
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Foote HP, Shaikh Z, Witt D, Shen T, Ratliff W, Shi H, Gao M, Nichols M, Sendak M, Balu S, Osborne K, Kumar KR, Jackson K, McCrary AW, Li JS. Development and Temporal Validation of a Machine Learning Model to Predict Clinical Deterioration. Hosp Pediatr 2024; 14:11-20. [PMID: 38053467 DOI: 10.1542/hpeds.2023-007308] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/07/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Early warning scores detecting clinical deterioration in pediatric inpatients have wide-ranging performance and use a limited number of clinical features. This study developed a machine learning model leveraging multiple static and dynamic clinical features from the electronic health record to predict the composite outcome of unplanned transfer to the ICU within 24 hours and inpatient mortality within 48 hours in hospitalized children. METHODS Using a retrospective development cohort of 17 630 encounters across 10 388 patients, 2 machine learning models (light gradient boosting machine [LGBM] and random forest) were trained on 542 features and compared with our institutional Pediatric Early Warning Score (I-PEWS). RESULTS The LGBM model significantly outperformed I-PEWS based on receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the composite outcome of ICU transfer or mortality for both internal validation and temporal validation cohorts (AUROC 0.785 95% confidence interval [0.780-0.791] vs 0.708 [0.701-0.715] for temporal validation) as well as lead-time before deterioration events (median 11 hours vs 3 hours; P = .004). However, LGBM performance as evaluated by precision recall curve was lesser in the temporal validation cohort with associated decreased positive predictive value (6% vs 29%) and increased number needed to evaluate (17 vs 3) compared with I-PEWS. CONCLUSIONS Our electronic health record based machine learning model demonstrated improved AUROC and lead-time in predicting clinical deterioration in pediatric inpatients 24 to 48 hours in advance compared with I-PEWS. Further work is needed to optimize model positive predictive value to allow for integration into clinical practice.
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Lee S, Kim SJ, Han KS, Song J, Lee SW. Comparison of the new-Poisoning Mortality Score and the Modified Early Warning Score for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with acute poisoning. Clin Toxicol (Phila) 2024; 62:1-9. [PMID: 38421362 DOI: 10.1080/15563650.2024.2310743] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2023] [Accepted: 01/22/2024] [Indexed: 03/02/2024]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The evaluation of acute poisoning is challenging due to varied toxic substances and clinical presentations. The new-Poisoning Mortality Score was recently developed to assess patients with acute poisoning and showed good performance in predicting in-hospital mortality. The objective of this study is to externally validate the performance of the new-Poisoning Mortality Score and to compare it with the Modified Early Warning Score. METHODS This retrospective analysis used data from the 2019-2020 Injury Surveillance Cohort, established by the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention, to perform external validation of the new-Poisoning Mortality Score. The statistical performances of the new-Poisoning Mortality and Modified Early Warning Scores were assessed and compared in terms of discrimination and calibration. Discrimination analysis involved metrics such as sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. For calibration analysis, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was utilized and calibration curves for each score were generated to elucidate the relationship between observed and predicted mortalities. RESULTS This study analysed 16,570 patients with acute poisoning. Significant differences were observed between survivors and those who died in-hospital, including age, sex, and vital signs. The new-Poisoning Mortality Score showed better performance over the Modified Early Warning Score in predicting in-hospital mortality, in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.947 versus 0.800), sensitivity (0.863 versus 0.667), specificity (0.912 versus 0.817), and accuracy (0.911 versus 0.814). When evaluated through calibration curves, the new-Poisoning Mortality Score showed better concordance between predicted and observed mortalities. In subgroup analyses, the score system consistently showed strong performance, excelling particularly in substances with high mortality indices and remaining superior in all substances as a group. CONCLUSIONS Our study has helped to validate the new-Poisoning Mortality Score as an effective tool for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with acute poisoning in the emergency department. The score system demonstrated superior performance over the Modified Early Warning Score in various metrics. Our findings suggest that the new-Poisoning Mortality Score can contribute to the enhancement of clinical decision-making and patient management.
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Yang L, Song LX, Zhang YM, Liu HM. Application of national early warning score in assessing postoperative illness severity in elderly patients with gastrointestinal illnesses. Technol Health Care 2024; 32:1393-1402. [PMID: 37661901 DOI: 10.3233/thc-230369] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Population aging is a social problem that is being faced in most countries. OBJECTIVE To apply the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for an early warning on the vital signs and consciousness of elderly patients who are hospitalized in the gastrointestinal surgical department and to provide a reference for early detection of changes in illness severity in elderly patients by studying the correlation between NEWS value and changes in illness severity. METHODS We enrolled 528 elderly patients who were hospitalized in the gastrointestinal surgical department of a tertiary grade A hospital in Guizhou Province between June 2020 and May 2021, to analyze how NEWS max value correlates with illness severity and obtain the optimal NEWS cutoff value for both potentially critically ill and critically ill elderly patients using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS There were statistically significant differences in NEWS values between elderly patients with various illness severities (P< 0.05). NEWS values correlated positively with illness severity (r= 0.605, P< 0.001). Based on the ROC curve, early warning trigger values for NEWS to identify potentially critically ill, critically ill and terminally ill elderly patients were 6, 7 and 8, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) for potentially critically ill, critically ill and terminally ill elderly patients was 0.907, 0.921 and 0.939, respectively. NEWS performed better in detecting patient illness severity than Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) in AUC, sensitivity, specificity, and Youden's index, with statistically significant differences (P< 0.05). CONCLUSION An early warning on the vital signs and consciousness of hospitalized elderly patients using NEWS can facilitate advanced detection of changes in illness severity of elderly patients by medical staff and enable timely treatment, thus significantly lowering the risks of illness deterioration.
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Gysling S, Shanmuganathan S, Szafranek A, Stewart ID, Caruana EJ. Validation of NEWS2, SIRS, and qSOFA in Postoperative Cardiac Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study. J Surg Res 2024; 293:364-372. [PMID: 37806223 DOI: 10.1016/j.jss.2023.08.044] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2022] [Revised: 07/31/2023] [Accepted: 08/26/2023] [Indexed: 10/10/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The 'quick Sepsis Related Organ Failure Assessment' (qSOFA), 'Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome' (SIRS), and 'National Early Warning Score' 2 (NEWS2) scores are yet to be comparatively validated in ward-based cardiac surgical patients despite widespread routine use in clinical practice. We sought to assess the predictive validity of NEWS, SIRS, and qSOFA in identifying postoperative, ward-level cardiac surgical patients at risk of poor short-term mortality. METHODS All adult patients who underwent cardiac surgery at a single tertiary center between November 2014 and October 2017 were identified. Data for bedside observations, hematological results, and microbiology requests were obtained from electronic health records. Survival data were acquired from a national registry. The primary outcome was the discriminatory ability, measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), of each score for in-hospital mortality. RESULTS One thousand five hundred forty three (male n = 1101, 71%) patients were included. Overall in-hospital mortality was 2.4%. There was no significant difference in discriminatory ability of NEWS (AUROC 0.5060), SIRS (AUROC 0.4874), and qSOFA (AUROC 0.5139) for in-hospital mortality (P = 0.881). Sensitivity for this outcome was ubiquitously low (13.51-40.54%). CONCLUSIONS Current illness-severity scores show a low discriminatory ability for in-hospital mortality in ward-based cardiac surgical patients. Caution should be used in the application of these prognostic screening tools for early detection of poor outcomes in this population.
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Rickey L, Zhang A, Dean N. Use of Evidence-Based Vital Signs in Pediatric Early Warning Score to Predict Clinical Deterioration on Acute Care Units. Clin Pediatr (Phila) 2024; 63:126-134. [PMID: 37036078 DOI: 10.1177/00099228231166264] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/11/2023]
Abstract
The pediatric early warning score (PEWS) is a tool used to predict clinical deterioration. Referenced vital sign parameters are based on expert opinion but heart rate and respiratory rate percentiles in hospitalized children have been published. This retrospective case-control study of unplanned intensive care unit (ICU) transfers compares evidence-based vital signs (EBVS) effect on PEWS sensitivity and specificity, determines the impact of age categories on PEWS deterioration prediction, and evaluates whether EBVS PEWS is associated with need for invasive ICU supports. EBVS PEWS improved sensitivity (43%-71% vs 30%-63%) for unplanned transfers with slightly decreased specificity (88%-98% vs 93%-99%). Logistic regression analysis and odds ratios (ORs) demonstrated EBVS PEWS was associated with increased risk for ICU-specific supports (OR = 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.0-1.34, P = .0498). Evidence-based vital signs can improve PEWS sensitivity to identify unplanned ICU transfers and identify patients requiring ICU-specific interventions.
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Clarke J, Gallifant J, Grant D, Desai N, Glover G. Predictive value of the National Early Warning Score 2 for hospitalised patients with viral respiratory illness is improved by the addition of inspired oxygen fraction as a weighted variable. BMJ Open Respir Res 2023; 10:e001657. [PMID: 38114240 DOI: 10.1136/bmjresp-2023-001657] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2023] [Accepted: 11/30/2023] [Indexed: 12/21/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) is validated for predicting acute deterioration, however, the binary grading of inspired oxygen fraction (FiO2) may limit performance. We evaluated the incorporation of FiO2 as a weighted categorical variable on NEWS2 prediction of patient deterioration. SETTING Two hospitals at a single medical centre, Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust. DESIGN Retrospective cohort of all ward admissions, with a viral respiratory infection (SARS-CoV-2/influenza). PARTICIPANTS 3704 adult ward admissions were analysed between 01 January 2017 and 31 December 2021. METHODS The NEWS-FiO2 score transformed FiO2 into a weighted categorical variable, from 0 to 3 points, substituting the original 0/2 points. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiac arrest, unplanned critical care admission or death within 24 hours of the observation. Sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV), number needed to evaluate (NNE) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) were calculated. Failure analysis for the time from trigger to outcome was compared by log-rank test. RESULTS The mean age was 60.4±19.4 years, 52.6% were men, with a median Charlson Comorbidity of 0 (IQR 3). The primary outcome occurred in 493 (13.3%) patients, and the weighted FiO2 score was strongly associated with the outcome (p=<0.001). In patients receiving supplemental oxygen, 78.5% of scores were reclassified correctly and the AUROC was 0.81 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.81) for NEWS-FiO2 versus 0.77 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.77) for NEWS2. This improvement persisted in the whole cohort with a significantly higher failure rate for NEWS-FiO2 (p=<0.001). At the 5-point threshold, the PPV increased by 22.0% (NNE 6.7) for only a 3.9% decrease in sensitivity. CONCLUSION Transforming FiO2 into a weighted categorical variable improved NEWS2 prediction for patient deterioration, significantly improving the PPV. Prospective external validation is required before institutional implementation.
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Price C, Prytherch D, Kostakis I, Briggs J. Evaluating the performance of the National Early Warning Score in different diagnostic groups. Resuscitation 2023; 193:110032. [PMID: 37931891 DOI: 10.1016/j.resuscitation.2023.110032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2023] [Revised: 09/27/2023] [Accepted: 10/24/2023] [Indexed: 11/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is used in hospitals across the UK to detect deterioration of patients within care pathways. It is used for most patients, but there are relatively few studies validating its performance in groups of patients with specific conditions. METHODS The performance of NEWS was evaluated against 36 other Early Warning Scores, in 123 patient groups, through use of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve technique, to compare the abilities of each Early Warning Score to discriminate an outcome within 24hrs of vital sign recording. Outcomes evaluated were death, ICU admission, or a combined outcome of either death or ICU admission within 24 hours of an observation set. RESULTS The National Early Warning Score 2 performs either best or joint best within 120 of the 123 patient groups evaluated and is only outperformed in prediction of unanticipated ICU admission. When outperformed by other Early Warning Scores in the remaining 3 patient groups, the performance difference was marginal. CONCLUSIONS Consistently high performance indicates that NEWS is a suitable early warning score to use for all diagnostic groups considered by this analysis, and patients are not disadvantaged through use of NEWS in comparison to any of the other evaluated Early Warning Scores.
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Guzelce MC, Colak N, Ucar G, Orhan E. Prognostic value of the NEWS + Lactate score in patients with decompensated heart failure in the emergency department. ESC Heart Fail 2023; 10:3604-3611. [PMID: 37771311 PMCID: PMC10682865 DOI: 10.1002/ehf2.14537] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2023] [Revised: 08/04/2023] [Accepted: 09/08/2023] [Indexed: 09/30/2023] Open
Abstract
AIMS The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is a scoring system that predicts increased mortality and morbidity in critical diseases. The National Early Warning Score + Lactate (NEWS + L) score was created by adding lactate values to this scoring system. In our study, we aimed to determine the value of the NEWS + L score in predicting clinical deterioration in patients presenting with acute decompensated heart failure (chronic heart failure). METHODS AND RESULTS In this observational, cross-sectional study, patients with decompensated heart failure who were admitted to the emergency department between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020 were included. Patients were divided into two groups: those with and without poor prognostic outcomes. The main outcomes were in-hospital mortality, discharge after treatment in the emergency department, admission to the ward, and admission to the intensive care unit. We analysed a total of 141 applications from 130 patients. The mean age was 72.6 ± 11.8 years, and 50.8% were female. Poor prognostic outcomes were observed in 92 (65%) patients. There was no difference between the patients with and without poor prognostic outcomes in terms of mean age, gender, and comorbidities, except for atrial fibrillation. There was a statistically significant difference between the patients without and with poor prognosis outcomes in terms of NEWS {3 [interquartile range (IQR): 0-5] and 6 [IQR: 3-8]} and NEWS + L scores [4.7 (IQR: 2.3-7.2) and 8.0 (IQR: 5.2-10.4)] (P < 0.001). The area under the curve values for predicting poor prognosis were calculated as 0.719 for NEWS, 0.734 for NEWS + L, and 0.601 for lactate values. The rate of poor prognostic outcomes was higher (79%) in patients with moderate and high NEWS scores. Patients with Q1 NEWS + L scores had a lower rate of poor prognostic outcomes, while patients with Q2, Q3, and Q4 scores of NEWS + L had a higher rate of poor prognostic outcomes. CONCLUSIONS The NEWS score and the addition of the lactate value to this score, the NEWS + L score, were higher in patients with poor prognostic outcomes who presented with decompensated heart failure in our emergency department. NEWS + L slightly outperformed the NEWS score in predicting prognosis. The NEWS + L score shows promise as a prognostic indicator for patients with decompensated heart failure presenting to the emergency department.
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van Mourik N, Oomen JJ, van Vught LA, Biemond BJ, van den Bergh WM, Blijlevens NMA, Vlaar APJ, Müller MCA. The predictive value of the modified early warning score for admission to the intensive care unit in patients with a hematologic malignancy - A multicenter observational study. Intensive Crit Care Nurs 2023; 79:103486. [PMID: 37441816 DOI: 10.1016/j.iccn.2023.103486] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2023] [Revised: 06/26/2023] [Accepted: 07/02/2023] [Indexed: 07/15/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The modified early warning score (MEWS) is used to detect clinical deterioration of hospitalized patients. We aimed to investigate the predictive value of MEWS and derived quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) scores for intensive care unit admission in patients with a hematologic malignancy admitted to the ward. DESIGN Retrospective, observational study in two Dutch university hospitals. SETTING Data from adult patients with a hematologic malignancy, admitted to the ward over a 2-year period, were extracted from electronic patient files. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Intensive care admission. RESULTS We included 395 patients with 736 hospital admissions; 2% (n = 15) of admissions resulted in admission to the intensive care unit. A higher MEWS (OR 1.5; 95 %CI 1.3-1.80) and qSOFA (OR 4.4; 95 %CI 2.1-9.3) were associated with admission. Using restricted cubic splines, a rise in the probability of admission for a MEWS ≥ 6 was observed. The AUC of MEWS for predicting admission was 0.830, the AUC of qSOFA was 0.752. MEWS was indicative for intensive care unit admission two days before admission. CONCLUSIONS MEWS was a sensitive predictor of ICU admission in patients with a hematologic malignancy, superior to qSOFA. Future studies should confirm cut-off values and identify potential additional characteristics, to further enhance identification of critically ill hemato-oncology patients. IMPLICATIONS FOR CLINICAL PRACTICE The Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) can be used as a tool for healthcare providers to monitor clinical deterioration and predict the need for intensive care unit admission in patients with a hematologic malignancy. Yet, consistent application and potential reevaluation of current thresholds is crucial. This will enable bedside nurses to more effectively identify patients needing adjunctive care, facilitating timely interventions and improved outcome.
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Solanki A, Batra P, Bhaskar V, Harit D. Comparison of Emergency Severity Index Version 4 and Modified Pediatric Early Warning Score as Triage Models in the Pediatric Emergency of a Tertiary Care Public Sector Hospital. Indian Pediatr 2023; 60:917-921. [PMID: 37950465] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To identify the sensitivity of emergency severity index (ESI) version 4 and modified pediatric early warning score (PEWS) in identifying high urgency patients. METHODS This cross-sectional study was conducted between November, 2019 and October, 2021 in the pediatric emergency department of tertiary hospital in Delhi. 250 patients aged 0-12 years coming to pediatric emergency on pre-decided days for health-related complaints were enrolled. These were assessed with both triage systems within 30 minutes of their arrival by a single researcher. 'High urgency' patients were defined as the ones who either required admission in pediatric ICU or died or had critical value of vital parameters as per institution protocol. RESULTS ESI version 4 had a sensitivity of 95.5%, specificity of 80.3%, with AUC of 0.879 (95%CI 0.834-0.925) in identifying high urgency patients at levels 1 and 2. Modified PEWS had comparatively lower sensitivity of 79.1%, specificity of 97.8%, with AUC of 0.885 (95%CI 0.825-0.994) in identifying high urgency patients at score of ≥3. The ESI version 4 was found to be a better predictor of admission than the modified PEWS, with a sensitivity of 98.2%. Both the scores were able to identify patients at risk of mortality with a sensitivity of 100%. CONCLUSION ESI version 4 is a better triage tool than modified PEWS in pediatric population in a tertiary care public hospital setting in this region.
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Goodacre S, Sutton L, Thomas B, Hawksworth O, Iftikhar K, Croft S, Fuller G, Waterhouse S, Hind D, Bradburn M, Smyth MA, Perkins GD, Millins M, Rosser A, Dickson JM, Wilson MJ. Prehospital early warning scores for adults with suspected sepsis: retrospective diagnostic cohort study. Emerg Med J 2023; 40:768-776. [PMID: 37673643 PMCID: PMC10646863 DOI: 10.1136/emermed-2023-213315] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2023] [Accepted: 08/18/2023] [Indexed: 09/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Ambulance services need to identify and prioritise patients with sepsis for early hospital assessment. We aimed to determine the accuracy of early warning scores alongside paramedic diagnostic impression to identify sepsis that required urgent treatment. METHODS We undertook a retrospective diagnostic cohort study involving adult emergency medical cases transported to Sheffield Teaching Hospitals ED by Yorkshire Ambulance Service in 2019. We used routine ambulance service data to calculate 21 early warning scores and categorise paramedic diagnostic impressions as sepsis, infection, non-specific presentation or other presentation. We linked cases to hospital records and identified those meeting the sepsis-3 definition who received urgent hospital treatment for sepsis (reference standard). Analysis determined the accuracy of strategies that combined early warning scores at varying thresholds for positivity with paramedic diagnostic impression. RESULTS We linked 12 870/24 955 (51.6%) cases and identified 348/12 870 (2.7%) with a positive reference standard. None of the strategies provided sensitivity greater than 0.80 with positive predictive value greater than 0.15. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the National Early Warning Score, version 2 (NEWS2) applied to patients with a diagnostic impression of sepsis or infection was 0.756 (95% CI 0.729, 0.783). No other early warning score provided clearly superior accuracy to NEWS2. Paramedic impression of sepsis or infection had sensitivity of 0.572 (0.519, 0.623) and positive predictive value of 0.156 (0.137, 0.176). NEWS2 thresholds of >4, >6 and >8 applied to patients with a diagnostic impression of sepsis or infection, respectively, provided sensitivities and positive predictive values of 0.522 (0.469, 0.574) and 0.216 (0.189, 0.245), 0.447 (0.395, 0.499) and 0.274 (0.239, 0.313), and 0.314 (0.268, 0.365) and 0.333 (0.284, 0.386). CONCLUSION No strategy is ideal but using NEWS2 alongside paramedic diagnostic impression of infection or sepsis could identify one-third to half of sepsis cases without prioritising unmanageable numbers. No other score provided clearly superior accuracy to NEWS2. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER researchregistry5268, https://www.researchregistry.com/browse-the-registry%23home/registrationdetails/5de7bbd97ca5b50015041c33/.
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Psirides A, Mohan C. Comparison of the Aotearoa New Zealand Early Warning Score and National Early Warning Score to predict adverse inpatient events in a vital sign dataset. Anaesthesia 2023; 78:1422. [PMID: 37401898 DOI: 10.1111/anae.16093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/20/2023] [Indexed: 07/05/2023]
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Mackay JH. Early warning scores to assess risk before emergency laparotomy. Anaesthesia 2023; 78:1302. [PMID: 37314730 DOI: 10.1111/anae.16062] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/18/2023] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
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Gupta C, Suri J, Bachani S, Bharti R, Pandey D, Mittal P. Carle's obstetric early warning score as a screening tool for critical care admission. Indian J Med Res 2023; 158:339-346. [PMID: 37988032 DOI: 10.4103/ijmr.ijmr_2478_21] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/22/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND OBJECTIVES Early warning systems (EWS) involve serial observations (track) with criteria (trigger) to timely identify patients at risk of complications. Carle designed a statistically based clinically modified obstetric early warning score (Carle's OEWS). This study evaluated Carle's OEWS and its individual components for predicting admission to the obstetric critical care unit (OCCU). Maternal near-miss and maternal mortality were the secondary outcomes. METHODS A prospective observational study was conducted among 1250 pregnant women with a period of gestation ≥28 week admitted in the labour wards of a tertiary centre over 18 months. The physiological parameters of OEWS were recorded and aggregate score was calculated at admission and at regular intervals thereafter, till discharge or OCCU admission. RESULTS The area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of OEWS was 0.975 for predicting OCCU admission, 0.971 for near-miss, and 0.996 for predicting maternal mortality and was significant for all outcomes. All individual parameters, except diastolic blood pressure, had a significant relative risk for predicting OCCU requirement. INTERPRETATION CONCLUSIONS Carle's OEWS is a useful screening tool for predicting obstetric OCCU admission and can be routinely used in labour wards to ensure timely intervention.
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Su X, Zhang H, Yuan W, Yi M, Fu C, Jiang J, Gao H. [Comparison of four early warning scores in predicting the prognosis of critically ill patients in secondary hospitals]. ZHONGHUA WEI ZHONG BING JI JIU YI XUE 2023; 35:1093-1098. [PMID: 37873716 DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn121430-20230614-00441] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To explore the predictive value of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) and modified early warning score (MEWS) in evaluating the prognosis of patients in intensive care unit (ICU) of secondary hospitals, and to provide guidance for clinical application. METHODS The clinical data of adult critical patients admitted to the ICU of Wanzhou District First People's Hospital from October 2022 to April 2023 were retrospectively analyzed. According to the clinical outcome of ICU, the patients were divided into improvement group and death group. The general information, blood routine, heart, liver and kidney function indicators, coagulation indicators, blood gas analysis, APACHE II score, SOFA score, qSOFA score, MEWS score at the time of admission to the ICU, the number of cases of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and continuous blood purification (CBP) were compared between the two groups. Univariate analysis was performed, and multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the related factors of death. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was used to analyze the predictive value of the four scores in ICU patients. RESULTS A total of 126 patients were included, of which 45 patients died in the ICU and 81 patients improved and transferred out. Univariate analysis of death-related critically ill patients showed that procalcitonin (PCT), serum creatinine (SCr), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), albumin (ALB), prothrombin time (PT), activated partial prothrombin time (APTT), D-dimer, pH value, HCO3-, blood lactic acid (Lac), number of patients treated with IMV and CBP, APACHE II score, SOFA score, qSOFA score and MEWS score were significantly different between the two groups (all P < 0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that the APACHE II score [odds ratio (OR) = 1.115, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.025-1.213, P = 0.011], SOFA score (OR = 1.204, 95%CI was 1.037-1.398, P = 0.015), MEWS score (OR = 1.464, 95%CI was 1.102-1.946, P = 0.009), and APTT (OR = 1.081, 95%CI was 1.015-1.152, P = 0.016) were independent risk factors affecting the mortality of critically ill patients in the ICU. ROC curve analysis showed that APACHE II, SOFA, qSOFA, and MEWS scores could predict the prognosis of critically ill ICU patients, among which SOFA score had the strongest predictive effect, and the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.808. There was a statistically significant difference in the time required for the four scores (F = 117.333, P < 0.001), among which the MEWS scoring required the shortest time [(1.03±0.39) minutes], and the APACHE II scoring required the longest time [(2.81±1.04) minutes]. CONCLUSIONS APACHE II, SOFA, qSOFA, and MEWS scores can be used to assess the severity of critically ill patients and predict in-hospital mortality. The SOFA score is superior to other scores in predicting severity. The MEWS is preferred because its assessment time is shortest. Early warning score can help secondary hospitals to detect potentially critical patients early and provide help for clinical rapid urgent emergency decision-making.
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Rodríguez C, Muriel A, Carrasco L, González S, Briceño W, Durán D, Retegui A, Yusen RD, Bikdeli B, Jiménez D. National Early Warning Score-2 for Identification of Patients with Intermediate-High-Risk Pulmonary Embolism. Semin Thromb Hemost 2023; 49:716-724. [PMID: 37327883 DOI: 10.1055/s-0043-1769938] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Consensus statements have proposed the use of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to identify stable patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) and an intermediate-high risk of adverse outcomes. We aimed to externally validate NEWS2 and compare it to another predictive score (Bova). Using NEWS2 (cutoff ≥5 and ≥7) and the Bova score (cutoff >4), we classified patients as intermediate-high risk (vs. non-intermediate-high risk), and we compared the test characteristics of these risk classification tools for a complicated course within 30 days after PE diagnosis. We also assessed the validity of NEWS2 for predicting a complicated course by adding the results of echocardiography and troponin testing to the model. Of the 848 enrolled patients, the NEWS2 score ≥5 classified 471 (55.5%) and the Bova score classified 37 (4.4%) as intermediate-high risk. NEWS2 had a significantly lower specificity for a 30-day complicated course than Bova (45.4 vs. 96.3%, respectively; p < 0.001). Using the higher score threshold (≥7), the NEWS2 classified 99 (11.7%) as intermediate-high risk, and the specificity was 88.9% (difference with Bova, 7.4%; p < 0.001). The proportion of patients with intermediate-high risk PE was 2.4% for the combination of a positive troponin testing and echocardiographic right ventricle dysfunction and a positive NEWS2 (score ≥7), while the specificity was 97.8% (difference with Bova, 1.5%; p = 0.07). Bova outperforms NEWS2 for predicting a complicated course among stable patients with PE. Addition of troponin testing and echocardiography improved the specificity of NEWS2, although it was not superior to Bova. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV NUMBER: : NCT02238639.
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Darbyshire AR, Kostakis I, Briggs J. Early warning scores to assess risk before emergency laparotomy: a reply. Anaesthesia 2023; 78:1303. [PMID: 37387194 DOI: 10.1111/anae.16083] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/13/2023] [Indexed: 07/01/2023]
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Anam AM, Shareef A, Shumy F, Gerardus King MR. Preventing unrecognized deterioration & improving outcomes of critically ill patients using the National Early Warning Score 2 in a high dependency unit in Bangladesh: A quality improvement project. Trop Doct 2023; 53:419-427. [PMID: 37309167 DOI: 10.1177/00494755231178124] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
This Quality Improvement Project (QIP) aimed to assess the acceptability and utility of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) in a Bangladeshi level-2 care setting. All nurses and physicians were trained on NEWS2 scores and a proper response before starting the QIP. Utilization of NEWS2 and patient outcome were documented and analyzed. Acceptability was acknowledged by increase in utilization, and utility by reduction in unrecognized deterioration of patients. The modified NEWS2 was well adopted and utilized by the nursing staff. There was a statistically significant reduction in unrecognized deterioration leading to cardiac arrest and the need for transfer to the Intensive Care Unit after implementation of NEWS2. With adequate training, motivation and appropriate modification, NEWS2 can become a well-accepted, widely adopted and realistic bedside monitoring tool in resource-limited settings like Bangladesh.
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Zayas CE, Whorton JM, Sexton KW, Mabry CD, Dowland SC, Brochhausen M. Development and validation of the early warning system scores ontology. J Biomed Semantics 2023; 14:14. [PMID: 37730667 PMCID: PMC10510162 DOI: 10.1186/s13326-023-00296-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2023] [Accepted: 09/09/2023] [Indexed: 09/22/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Clinical early warning scoring systems, have improved patient outcomes in a range of specializations and global contexts. These systems are used to predict patient deterioration. A multitude of patient-level physiological decompensation data has been made available through the widespread integration of early warning scoring systems within EHRs across national and international health care organizations. These data can be used to promote secondary research. The diversity of early warning scoring systems and various EHR systems is one barrier to secondary analysis of early warning score data. Given that early warning score parameters are varied, this makes it difficult to query across providers and EHR systems. Moreover, mapping and merging the parameters is challenging. We develop and validate the Early Warning System Scores Ontology (EWSSO), representing three commonly used early warning scores: the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), the six-item modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), and the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) to overcome these problems. METHODS We apply the Software Development Lifecycle Framework-conceived by Winston Boyce in 1970-to model the activities involved in organizing, producing, and evaluating the EWSSO. We also follow OBO Foundry Principles and the principles of best practice for domain ontology design, terms, definitions, and classifications to meet BFO requirements for ontology building. RESULTS We developed twenty-nine new classes, reused four classes and four object properties to create the EWSSO. When we queried the data our ontology-based process could differentiate between necessary and unnecessary features for score calculation 100% of the time. Further, our process applied the proper temperature conversions for the early warning score calculator 100% of the time. CONCLUSIONS Using synthetic datasets, we demonstrate the EWSSO can be used to generate and query health system data on vital signs and provide input to calculate the NEWS, six-item MEWS, and qSOFA. Future work includes extending the EWSSO by introducing additional early warning scores for adult and pediatric patient populations and creating patient profiles that contain clinical, demographic, and outcomes data regarding the patient.
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Neiman AE, Campanharo CRV, Lopes MCBT, Piacezzi LHV, Batista REA. COVID-19: Association of risk classification with the Modified Early Warning Score and hospital outcomes. Rev Lat Am Enfermagem 2023; 31:e3977. [PMID: 37729245 PMCID: PMC10508216 DOI: 10.1590/1518-8345.6666.3977] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2023] [Accepted: 06/06/2023] [Indexed: 09/22/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE to evaluate the association of the risk classification categories with the Modified Early Warning Score and the outcomes of COVID-19 patients in the emergency service. METHOD a crosssectional study carried out with 372 patients hospitalized with a COVID-19 diagnosis and treated at the Risk Classification Welcoming area from the Emergency Room. In this study, the patients' Modified Early Warning Score was categorized into without and with clinical deterioration, from 0 to 4 and from 5 to 9, respectively. Clinical deterioration was considered to be acute respiratory failure, shock and cardiopulmonary arrest. RESULTS the mean Modified Early Warning Score was 3.34. In relation to the patients' clinical deterioration, it was observed that, in 43%, the time for deterioration was less than 24 hours and that 65.9% occurred in the Emergency Room. The most frequent deterioration was acute respiratory failure (69.9%) and the outcome was hospital discharge (70.3%). CONCLUSION COVID-19 patients who had a Modified Early Warning Scores > 4 were associated with the urgent, very urgent and emergency risk classification categories, had more clinical deterioration, such as respiratory failure and shock, and evolved more to death, which shows that the Risk Classification Protocol correctly prioritized patients at risk of life.
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Barbosa IDS, Jaques AE, Radovanovic CAT, Andrade LD, Dermatte LPG, Souza CMD, Tonon MM. Development of a mobile application for emergency shift handovers using the National Early Warning Score. Rev Gaucha Enferm 2023; 44:e20220130. [PMID: 37729267 DOI: 10.1590/1983-1447.2023.20220130.en] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2022] [Accepted: 03/08/2023] [Indexed: 09/22/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To develop and validate a prototype of a mobile application shift handover between nurses in the emergency room using a severity scale. METHOD This is a technological tool carried out at the Universidade Estadual de Maringá using design thinking, divided into four phases: discovering, defining, developing, and delivering. To structure the information, a checklist was used based on the Situation Background Assessment Recommendation, and to categorize patients in terms of severity, the National Early Warning Score was used. The validation of the sample was carried out by 10 nurses, specialized in the field of urgency and emergency, using the System Usability Scale questionnaire to assess usability. The content validity coefficient was used for analysis. RESULTS The application scored 75.75 in usability and had a content validity coefficient of 0.8. CONCLUSION The prototype obtained an excellent evaluation of usability and agreement between evaluators. Future studies are needed for implementation in practice, evaluating the practicality, applicability, efficiency and time savings in shift information transfer.
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Kuo YT, Hsiao CT, Wu PH, Wu KH, Chang CP. Comparison of National Early Warning Score with shock index in patients with necrotizing fasciitis. Medicine (Baltimore) 2023; 102:e34651. [PMID: 37682200 PMCID: PMC10489463 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000034651] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2023] [Accepted: 07/18/2023] [Indexed: 09/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Shock index (SI) and national early warning score (NEWS) are more frequently used as assessment tools in acute illnesses, patient disposition and early identification of critical condition. Both they are consisted of common vital signs and parameters including heart rate, systolic blood pressure, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation and level of conscious, which made it easy to evaluate in medical facilities. Its ability to predict mortality in patients with necrotizing fasciitis (NF) in the emergency department remains unclear. This study was conducted to compare the predictive capability of the risk scores among NF patients. A retrospective cohort study of hospitalized patients with NF was conducted in 2 tertiary teaching hospitals in Taiwan between January 2013 and March 2015. We investigated the association of NEWS and SI with mortality in NF patients. Of the 395 NF patients, 32 (8.1%) died in the hospital. For mortality, the area under the receiver curve value of NEWS (0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.76-0.86) was significantly higher than SI (0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.73-0.79, P = .016). The sensitivities of NEWS of 3, 4, and 5 for mortality were 98.1%, 95.6%, and 92.3%. On the contrast, the sensitivities of SI of 0.5, 0.6, and 0.7 for mortality were 87.8%, 84.7%, and 81.5%. NEWS had advantage in better discriminative performance of mortality in NF patients. The NEWS may be used to identify relative low risk patients among NF patients.
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Covino M, Sandroni C, Della Polla D, De Matteis G, Piccioni A, De Vita A, Russo A, Salini S, Carbone L, Petrucci M, Pennisi M, Gasbarrini A, Franceschi F. Predicting ICU admission and death in the Emergency Department: A comparison of six early warning scores. Resuscitation 2023; 190:109876. [PMID: 37331563 DOI: 10.1016/j.resuscitation.2023.109876] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2023] [Revised: 05/30/2023] [Accepted: 06/09/2023] [Indexed: 06/20/2023]
Abstract
AIM To compare the ability of the most used Early Warning Scores (EWS) to identify adult patients at risk of poor outcomes in the emergency department (ED). METHODS Single-center, retrospective observational study. We evaluated the digital records of consecutive ED admissions in patients ≥ 18 years from 2010 to 2019 and calculated NEWS, NEWS2, MEWS, RAPS, REMS, and SEWS based on parameters measured on ED arrival. We assessed the discrimination and calibration performance of each EWS in predicting death/ICU admission within 24 hours using ROC analysis and visual calibration. We also measured the relative weight of clinical and physiological derangements that identified patients missed by EWS risk stratification using neural network analysis. RESULTS Among 225,369 patients assessed in the ED during the study period, 1941 (0.9%) were admitted to ICU or died within 24 hours. NEWS was the most accurate predictor (area under the receiver operating characteristic [AUROC] curve 0.904 [95% CI 0.805-0.913]), followed by NEWS2 (AUROC 0.901). NEWS was also well calibrated. In patients judged at low risk (NEWS < 2), 359 events occurred (18.5% of the total). Neural network analysis revealed that age, systolic BP, and temperature had the highest relative weight for these NEWS-unpredicted events. CONCLUSIONS NEWS is the most accurate EWS for predicting the risk of death/ICU admission within 24 h from ED arrival. The score also had a fair calibration with few events occurring in patients classified at low risk. Neural network analysis suggests the need for further improvements by focusing on the prompt diagnosis of sepsis and the development of practical tools for the measurement of the respiratory rate.
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Klén R, Huespe IA, Gregalio FA, Lalueza Blanco AL, Pedrera Jimenez M, Garcia Barrio N, Valdez PR, Mirofsky MA, Boietti B, Gómez-Huelgas R, Casas-Rojo JM, Antón-Santos JM, Pollan JA, Gómez-Varela D. Development and validation of COEWS (COVID-19 Early Warning Score) for hospitalized COVID-19 with laboratory features: A multicontinental retrospective study. eLife 2023; 12:e85618. [PMID: 37615346 PMCID: PMC10479961 DOI: 10.7554/elife.85618] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2023] [Accepted: 08/23/2023] [Indexed: 08/25/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants with significant immune-evasiveness, the relaxation of measures for reducing the number of infections, the waning of immune protection (particularly in high-risk population groups), and the low uptake of new vaccine boosters, forecast new waves of hospitalizations and admission to intensive care units. There is an urgent need for easily implementable and clinically effective Early Warning Scores (EWSs) that can predict the risk of complications within the next 24-48 hr. Although EWSs have been used in the evaluation of COVID-19 patients, there are several clinical limitations to their use. Moreover, no models have been tested on geographically distinct populations or population groups with varying levels of immune protection. Methods We developed and validated COVID-19 Early Warning Score (COEWS), an EWS that is automatically calculated solely from laboratory parameters that are widely available and affordable. We benchmarked COEWS against the widely used NEWS2. We also evaluated the predictive performance of vaccinated and unvaccinated patients. Results The variables of the COEWS predictive model were selected based on their predictive coefficients and on the wide availability of these laboratory variables. The final model included complete blood count, blood glucose, and oxygen saturation features. To make COEWS more actionable in real clinical situations, we transformed the predictive coefficients of the COEWS model into individual scores for each selected feature. The global score serves as an easy-to-calculate measure indicating the risk of a patient developing the combined outcome of mechanical ventilation or death within the next 48 hr.The discrimination in the external validation cohort was 0.743 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.703-0.784) for the COEWS score performed with coefficients and 0.700 (95% CI: 0.654-0.745) for the COEWS performed with scores. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was similar in vaccinated and unvaccinated patients. Additionally, we observed that the AUROC of the NEWS2 was 0.677 (95% CI: 0.601-0.752) in vaccinated patients and 0.648 (95% CI: 0.608-0.689) in unvaccinated patients. Conclusions The COEWS score predicts death or MV within the next 48 hr based on routine and widely available laboratory measurements. The extensive external validation, its high performance, its ease of use, and its positive benchmark in comparison with the widely used NEWS2 position COEWS as a new reference tool for assisting clinical decisions and improving patient care in the upcoming pandemic waves. Funding University of Vienna.
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Lindskou TA, Ward LM, Søvsø MB, Mogensen ML, Christensen EF. Prehospital Early Warning Scores to Predict Mortality in Patients Using Ambulances. JAMA Netw Open 2023; 6:e2328128. [PMID: 37556138 PMCID: PMC10413164 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.28128] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2023] [Accepted: 06/29/2023] [Indexed: 08/10/2023] Open
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Early warning scores (EWSs) are designed for in-hospital use but are widely used in the prehospital field, especially in select groups of patients potentially at high risk. To be useful for paramedics in daily prehospital clinical practice, evaluations are needed of the predictive value of EWSs based on first measured vital signs on scene in large cohorts covering unselected patients using ambulance services. OBJECTIVE To validate EWSs' ability to predict mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) stay in an unselected cohort of adult patients who used ambulances. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This prognostic study conducted a validation based on a cohort of adult patients (aged ≥18 years) who used ambulances in the North Denmark Region from July 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. EWSs (National Early Warning Score 2 [NEWS2], modified NEWS score without temperature [mNEWS], Quick Sepsis Related Organ Failure Assessment [qSOFA], Rapid Emergency Triage and Treatment System [RETTS], and Danish Emergency Process Triage [DEPT]) were calculated using first vital signs measured by ambulance personnel. Data were analyzed from September 2022 through May 2023. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was 30-day-mortality. Secondary outcomes were 1-day-mortality and ICU admission. Discrimination was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and area under the precision recall curve (AUPRC). RESULTS There were 107 569 unique patients (52 650 females [48.9%]; median [IQR] age, 65 [45-77] years) from the entire cohort of 219 323 patients who used ambulance services, among whom 119 992 patients (54.7%) had called the Danish national emergency number. NEWS2, mNEWS, RETTS, and DEPT performed similarly concerning 30-day mortality (AUROC range, 0.67 [95% CI, 0.66-0.68] for DEPT to 0.68 [95% CI, 0.68-0.69] for mNEWS), while qSOFA had lower performance (AUROC, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.59-0.60]; P vs other scores < .001). All EWSs had low AUPRCs, ranging from 0.09 (95% CI, 0.09-0.09) for qSOFA to 0.14 (95% CI, 0.13-0.14) for mNEWS.. Concerning 1-day mortality and ICU admission NEWS2, mNEWS, RETTS, and DEPT performed similarly, with AUROCs ranging from 0.72 (95% CI, 0.71-0.73) for RETTS to 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74-0.76) for DEPT in 1-day mortality and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.65-0.67) for RETTS to 0.68 (95% CI, 0.67-0.69) for mNEWS in ICU admission, and all EWSs had low AUPRCs. These ranged from 0.02 (95% CI, 0.02-0.03) for qSOFA to 0.04 (95% CI, 0.04-0.04) for DEPT in 1-day mortality and 0.03 (95% CI, 0.03-0.03) for qSOFA to 0.05 (95% CI, 0.04-0.05) for DEPT in ICU admission. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This study found that EWSs in daily clinical use in emergency medical settings performed moderately in the prehospital field among unselected patients who used ambulances when assessed based on initial measurements of vital signs. These findings suggest the need of appropriate triage and early identification of patients at low and high risk with new and better EWSs also suitable for prehospital use.
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Castagno E, Balbo M, Procacci A, Parisi A, Paglia F, Bergese I, Versace A, Bondone C. [ Early warning scores of clinical deterioration in pediatric patients: a literature review]. ASSISTENZA INFERMIERISTICA E RICERCA : AIR 2023; 42:137-151. [PMID: 37721339 DOI: 10.1702/4095.40918] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/19/2023]
Abstract
. Early warning scores for clinical deterioration in pediatric patients: a literature review. INTRODUCTION An early recognition of clinical worsening (the manifestation of signs and symptoms resulting in physiological instability) in pediatric inpatients may prevent the evolution towards cardiorespiratory arrest. In recent decades, several tools known as PEWS (Pediatric Early Warning Scores), have been developed, aiming to reduce in-hospital morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE To describe efficacy, sensitivity and specificity of the available tools for early detection of clinical worsening in children, based on literature review. METHODS Systematic review through the consultation of PubMed and Google Scholar, cross-combining Mesh terms and free text words. RESULTS Out of 266 analysed papers, 34 were included in this review: 23 retrospective observational studies, 8 reviews, 1 reliability study, and 2 pilot studies. Overall, 23 main PEWS with sufficient evidence of efficacy were described (11 track and trigger and 12 aggregate). Ranges of sensibility and specificity were available only for 18 PEWS. It is not possible to recognize a gold standard, however, some PEWS are better in terms of validity and efficacy in different clinical settings. Internationally, the BPEWS (Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score) is the most commonly adopted tool, able to identify clinical worsening of in-hospital children almost 11 hours before cardiac arrest. CONCLUSIONS Although with limited evidence, validated PEWS have shown good ability to prevent the risk of clinical worsening by reducing adverse events. Further studies and greater standardization according to the clinical context are still needed.
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Murali M, Inada-Kim M. Early warning scores: the case for aggregate vs. single extreme parameter activation to detect patient deterioration. Anaesthesia 2023; 78:803-806. [PMID: 37195103 DOI: 10.1111/anae.16048] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/02/2023] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
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Qiu X, Lei YP, Zhou RX. SIRS, SOFA, qSOFA, and NEWS in the diagnosis of sepsis and prediction of adverse outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Expert Rev Anti Infect Ther 2023; 21:891-900. [PMID: 37450490 DOI: 10.1080/14787210.2023.2237192] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2023] [Revised: 06/20/2023] [Accepted: 06/27/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND We compared Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), and National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for sepsis diagnosis and adverse outcomes prediction. METHODS Clinical studies that used SIRS, SOFA, qSOFA, and NEWS for sepsis diagnosis and prognosis assessment were included. Data were extracted, and meta-analysis was performed for outcome measures, including sepsis diagnosis, in-hospital mortality, 7/10/14-day mortality, 28/30-day mortality, and ICU admission. RESULTS Fifty-seven included studies showed good overall quality. Regarding sepsis prediction, SIRS demonstrated high sensitivity (0.85) but low specificity (0.41), qSOFA showed low sensitivity (0.42) but high specificity (0.98), and NEWS exhibited high sensitivity (0.71) and specificity (0.85). For predicting in-hospital mortality, SOFA demonstrated the highest sensitivity (0.89) and specificity (0.69). In terms of predicting 7/10/14-day mortality, SIRS exhibited high sensitivity (0.87), while qSOFA had high specificity (0.75). For predicting 28/30-day mortality, SOFA showed high sensitivity (0.97) but low specificity (0.14), whereas qSOFA displayed low sensitivity (0.41) but high specificity (0.88). CONCLUSIONS NEWS independently demonstrates good diagnostic capability for sepsis, especially in high-income countries. SOFA emerges as the optimal choice for predicting in-hospital mortality and can be employed as a screening tool for 28/30-day mortality in low-income countries.
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Candel BGJ, Nissen SK, Nickel CH, Raven W, Thijssen W, Gaakeer MI, Lassen AT, Brabrand M, Steyerberg EW, de Jonge E, de Groot B. Development and External Validation of the International Early Warning Score for Improved Age- and Sex-Adjusted In-Hospital Mortality Prediction in the Emergency Department. Crit Care Med 2023; 51:881-891. [PMID: 36951452 PMCID: PMC10262984 DOI: 10.1097/ccm.0000000000005842] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/24/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Early Warning Scores (EWSs) have a great potential to assist clinical decision-making in the emergency department (ED). However, many EWS contain methodological weaknesses in development and validation and have poor predictive performance in older patients. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate an International Early Warning Score (IEWS) based on a recalibrated National Early warning Score (NEWS) model including age and sex and evaluate its performance independently at arrival to the ED in three age categories (18-65, 66-80, > 80 yr). DESIGN International multicenter cohort study. SETTING Data was used from three Dutch EDs. External validation was performed in two EDs in Denmark. PATIENTS All consecutive ED patients greater than or equal to 18 years in the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database (NEED) with at least two registered vital signs were included, resulting in 95,553 patients. For external validation, 14,809 patients were included from a Danish Multicenter Cohort (DMC). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS Model performance to predict in-hospital mortality was evaluated by discrimination, calibration curves and summary statistics, reclassification, and clinical usefulness by decision curve analysis. In-hospital mortality rate was 2.4% ( n = 2,314) in the NEED and 2.5% ( n = 365) in the DMC. Overall, the IEWS performed significantly better than NEWS with an area under the receiving operating characteristic of 0.89 (95% CIs, 0.89-0.90) versus 0.82 (0.82-0.83) in the NEED and 0.87 (0.85-0.88) versus 0.82 (0.80-0.84) at external validation. Calibration for NEWS predictions underestimated risk in older patients and overestimated risk in the youngest, while calibration improved for IEWS with a substantial reclassification of patients from low to high risk and a standardized net benefit of 5-15% in the relevant risk range for all age categories. CONCLUSIONS The IEWS substantially improves in-hospital mortality prediction for all ED patients greater than or equal to18 years.
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Marincowitz C, Sbaffi L, Hasan M, Hodkinson P, McAlpine D, Fuller G, Goodacre S, Bath PA, Omer Y, Wallis LA. External validation of triage tools for adults with suspected COVID-19 in a middle-income setting: an observational cohort study. Emerg Med J 2023; 40:509-517. [PMID: 37217302 PMCID: PMC10359554 DOI: 10.1136/emermed-2022-212827] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2022] [Accepted: 05/04/2023] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tools proposed to triage ED acuity in suspected COVID-19 were derived and validated in higher income settings during early waves of the pandemic. We estimated the accuracy of seven risk-stratification tools recommended to predict severe illness in the Western Cape, South Africa. METHODS An observational cohort study using routinely collected data from EDs across the Western Cape, from 27 August 2020 to 11 March 2022, was conducted to assess the performance of the PRIEST (Pandemic Respiratory Infection Emergency System Triage) tool, NEWS2 (National Early Warning Score, version 2), TEWS (Triage Early Warning Score), the WHO algorithm, CRB-65, Quick COVID-19 Severity Index and PMEWS (Pandemic Medical Early Warning Score) in suspected COVID-19. The primary outcome was intubation or non-invasive ventilation, death or intensive care unit admission at 30 days. RESULTS Of the 446 084 patients, 15 397 (3.45%, 95% CI 34% to 35.1%) experienced the primary outcome. Clinical decision-making for inpatient admission achieved a sensitivity of 0.77 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.78), specificity of 0.88 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.88) and the negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.99 (95% CI 0.99 to 0.99). NEWS2, PMEWS and PRIEST scores achieved good estimated discrimination (C-statistic 0.79 to 0.82) and identified patients at risk of adverse outcomes at recommended cut-offs with moderate sensitivity (>0.8) and specificity ranging from 0.41 to 0.64. Use of the tools at recommended thresholds would have more than doubled admissions, with only a 0.01% reduction in false negative triage. CONCLUSION No risk score outperformed existing clinical decision-making in determining the need for inpatient admission based on prediction of the primary outcome in this setting. Use of the PRIEST score at a threshold of one point higher than the previously recommended best approximated existing clinical accuracy.
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