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Den Boon S, Marston BJ, Nyenswah TG, Jambai A, Barry M, Keita S, Durski K, Senesie SS, Perkins D, Shah A, Green HH, Hamblion EL, Lamunu M, Gasasira A, Mahmoud NO, Djingarey MH, Morgan O, Crozier I, Dye C. Ebola Virus Infection Associated with Transmission from Survivors. Emerg Infect Dis 2019; 25:249-255. [PMID: 30500321 PMCID: PMC6346469 DOI: 10.3201/eid2502.181011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Ebola virus (EBOV) can persist in immunologically protected body sites in survivors of Ebola virus disease, creating the potential to initiate new chains of transmission. From the outbreak in West Africa during 2014-2016, we identified 13 possible events of viral persistence-derived transmission of EBOV (VPDTe) and applied predefined criteria to classify transmission events based on the strength of evidence for VPDTe and source and route of transmission. For 8 events, a recipient case was identified; possible source cases were identified for 5 of these 8. For 5 events, a recipient case or chain of transmission could not be confidently determined. Five events met our criteria for sexual transmission (male-to-female). One VPDTe event led to at least 4 generations of cases; transmission was limited after the other events. VPDTe has increased the importance of Ebola survivor services and sustained surveillance and response capacity in regions with previously widespread transmission.
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Barry A, Ahuka-Mundeke S, Ali Ahmed Y, Allarangar Y, Anoko J, Archer BN, Aruna Abedi A, Bagaria J, Belizaire MRD, Bhatia S, Bokenge T, Bruni E, Cori A, Dabire E, Diallo AM, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dorji TC, Escobar Corado Waeber AR, Fall IS, Ferguson NM, FitzJohn RG, Folefack Tengomo GL, Formenty PBH, Forna A, Fortin A, Garske T, Gaythorpe KAM, Gurry C, Hamblion E, Harouna Djingarey M, Haskew C, Hugonnet SAL, Imai N, Impouma B, Kabongo G, Kalenga OI, Kibangou E, Lee TMH, Lukoya CO, Ly O, Makiala-Mandanda S, Mamba A, Mbala-Kingebeni P, Mboussou FFR, Mlanda T, Mondonge Makuma V, Morgan O, Mujinga Mulumba A, Mukadi Kakoni P, Mukadi-Bamuleka D, Muyembe JJ, Bathé NT, Ndumbi Ngamala P, Ngom R, Ngoy G, Nouvellet P, Nsio J, Ousman KB, Peron E, Polonsky JA, Ryan MJ, Touré A, Towner R, Tshapenda G, Van De Weerdt R, Van Kerkhove M, Wendland A, Yao NKM, Yoti Z, Yuma E, Kalambayi Kabamba G, Lukwesa Mwati JDD, Mbuy G, Lubula L, Mutombo A, Mavila O, Lay Y, Kitenge E. Outbreak of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, April-May, 2018: an epidemiological study. Lancet 2018; 392:213-221. [PMID: 30047375 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31387-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2018] [Revised: 06/12/2018] [Accepted: 06/13/2018] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND On May 8, 2018, the Government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo reported an outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Équateur Province in the northwest of the country. The remoteness of most affected communities and the involvement of an urban centre connected to the capital city and neighbouring countries makes this outbreak the most complex and high risk ever experienced by the Democratic Republic of the Congo. We provide early epidemiological information arising from the ongoing investigation of this outbreak. METHODS We classified cases as suspected, probable, or confirmed using national case definitions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ministère de la Santé Publique. We investigated all cases to obtain demographic characteristics, determine possible exposures, describe signs and symptoms, and identify contacts to be followed up for 21 days. We also estimated the reproduction number and projected number of cases for the 4-week period from May 25, to June 21, 2018. FINDINGS As of May 30, 2018, 50 cases (37 confirmed, 13 probable) of Zaire ebolavirus were reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 21 (42%) were reported in Bikoro, 25 (50%) in Iboko, and four (8%) in Wangata health zones. Wangata is part of Mbandaka, the urban capital of Équateur Province, which is connected to major national and international transport routes. By May 30, 2018, 25 deaths from Ebola virus disease had been reported, with a case fatality ratio of 56% (95% CI 39-72) after adjustment for censoring. This case fatality ratio is consistent with estimates for the 2014-16 west African Ebola virus disease epidemic (p=0·427). The median age of people with confirmed or probable infection was 40 years (range 8-80) and 30 (60%) were male. The most commonly reported signs and symptoms in people with confirmed or probable Ebola virus disease were fever (40 [95%] of 42 cases), intense general fatigue (37 [90%] of 41 cases), and loss of appetite (37 [90%] of 41 cases). Gastrointestinal symptoms were frequently reported, and 14 (33%) of 43 people reported haemorrhagic signs. Time from illness onset and hospitalisation to sample testing decreased over time. By May 30, 2018, 1458 contacts had been identified, of which 746 (51%) remained under active follow-up. The estimated reproduction number was 1·03 (95% credible interval 0·83-1·37) and the cumulative case incidence for the outbreak by June 21, 2018, is projected to be 78 confirmed cases (37-281), assuming heterogeneous transmissibility. INTERPRETATION The ongoing Ebola virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has similar epidemiological features to previous Ebola virus disease outbreaks. Early detection, rapid patient isolation, contact tracing, and the ongoing vaccination programme should sufficiently control the outbreak. The forecast of the number of cases does not exceed the current capacity to respond if the epidemiological situation does not change. The information presented, although preliminary, has been essential in guiding the ongoing investigation and response to this outbreak. FUNDING None.
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Tang R, Murtagh C, Warrington G, Cable T, Morgan O, O'Boyle A, Burgess D, Morgans R, Drust B. Directional Change Mediates the Physiological Response to High-Intensity Shuttle Running in Professional Soccer Players. Sports (Basel) 2018; 6:E39. [PMID: 29910343 PMCID: PMC6026794 DOI: 10.3390/sports6020039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2018] [Revised: 04/17/2018] [Accepted: 04/20/2018] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence that different frequencies of deceleration and acceleration actions had on the physiological demands in professional soccer players. Thirteen players were monitored via microelectromechanical devices during shuttle running protocols which involved one, three, or seven 180 degree directional changes. Heart rate exertion (HRE) (1.1 ± 0.7) and rating of perceived exertion (RPE) (5 ± 1) were significantly higher for the protocol which included seven directional changes when compared to the protocols which included one (HRE 0.5 ± 0.3, ES = 1.1, RPE 3 ± 0, ES = 2.7) or three (HRE 0.5 ± 0.2, ES = 1.1, RPE 3 ± 1, ES = 1.9) directional changes (p < 0.05). The gravitational force (g-force) as measured through accelerometry (ACC) also showed a similar trend when comparing the seven (8628.2 ± 1630.4 g) to the one (5888.6 ± 1159.1 g, ES = 1.9) or three (6526.9 ± 1257.6 g, ES = 1.4) directional change protocols (p < 0.05). The results of this study suggest that increasing the frequency of decelerations and accelerations at a high intensity running (HIR) speed alters the movement demands and elevates the physiological responses in professional players. This data has implications for the monitoring of physical performance and implementation of training drills.
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Nuriddin A, Jalloh MF, Meyer E, Bunnell R, Bio FA, Jalloh MB, Sengeh P, Hageman KM, Carroll DD, Conteh L, Morgan O. Trust, fear, stigma and disruptions: community perceptions and experiences during periods of low but ongoing transmission of Ebola virus disease in Sierra Leone, 2015. BMJ Glob Health 2018; 3:e000410. [PMID: 29629189 PMCID: PMC5884263 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2017-000410] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2017] [Revised: 10/04/2017] [Accepted: 10/05/2017] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
Social mobilisation and risk communication were essential to the 2014–2015 West African Ebola response. By March 2015, >8500 Ebola cases and 3370 Ebola deaths were confirmed in Sierra Leone. Response efforts were focused on ‘getting to zero and staying at zero’. A critical component of this plan was to deepen and sustain community engagement. Several national quantitative studies conducted during this time revealed Ebola knowledge, personal prevention practices and traditional burial procedures improved as the outbreak waned, but healthcare system challenges were also noted. Few qualitative studies have examined these combined factors, along with survivor stigma during periods of ongoing transmission. To obtain an in-depth understanding of people’s perceptions, attitudes and behaviours associated with Ebola transmission risks, 27 focus groups were conducted between April and May 2015 with adult Sierra Leonean community members on: trust in the healthcare system, interactions with Ebola survivors, impact of Ebola on lives and livelihood, and barriers and facilitators to ending the outbreak. Participants perceived that as healthcare practices and facilities improved, so did community trust. Resource management remained a noted concern. Perceptions of survivors ranged from sympathy and empathy to fear and stigmatisation. Barriers included persistent denial of ongoing Ebola transmission, secret burials and movement across porous borders. Facilitators included personal protective actions, consistent messaging and the inclusion of women and survivors in the response. Understanding community experiences during the devastating Ebola epidemic provides practical lessons for engaging similar communities in risk communication and social mobilisation during future outbreaks and public health emergencies.
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Jalloh MF, Li W, Bunnell RE, Ethier KA, O'Leary A, Hageman KM, Sengeh P, Jalloh MB, Morgan O, Hersey S, Marston BJ, Dafae F, Redd JT. Impact of Ebola experiences and risk perceptions on mental health in Sierra Leone, July 2015. BMJ Glob Health 2018; 3:e000471. [PMID: 29607096 PMCID: PMC5873549 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2017-000471] [Citation(s) in RCA: 230] [Impact Index Per Article: 38.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2017] [Revised: 10/17/2017] [Accepted: 11/08/2017] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The mental health impact of the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic has been described among survivors, family members and healthcare workers, but little is known about its impact on the general population of affected countries. We assessed symptoms of anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the general population in Sierra Leone after over a year of outbreak response. Methods We administered a cross-sectional survey in July 2015 to a national sample of 3564 consenting participants selected through multistaged cluster sampling. Symptoms of anxiety and depression were measured by Patient Health Questionnaire-4. PTSD symptoms were measured by six items from the Impact of Events Scale-revised. Relationships among Ebola experience, perceived Ebola threat and mental health symptoms were examined through binary logistic regression. Results Prevalence of any anxiety-depression symptom was 48% (95% CI 46.8% to 50.0%), and of any PTSD symptom 76% (95% CI 75.0% to 77.8%). In addition, 6% (95% CI 5.4% to 7.0%) met the clinical cut-off for anxiety-depression, 27% (95% CI 25.8% to 28.8%) met levels of clinical concern for PTSD and 16% (95% CI 14.7% to 17.1%) met levels of probable PTSD diagnosis. Factors associated with higher reporting of any symptoms in bivariate analysis included region of residence, experiences with Ebola and perceived Ebola threat. Knowing someone quarantined for Ebola was independently associated with anxiety-depression (adjusted OR (AOR) 2.3, 95% CI 1.7 to 2.9) and PTSD (AOR 2.095% CI 1.5 to 2.8) symptoms. Perceiving Ebola as a threat was independently associated with anxiety-depression (AOR 1.69 95% CI 1.44 to 1.98) and PTSD (AOR 1.86 95% CI 1.56 to 2.21) symptoms. Conclusion Symptoms of PTSD and anxiety-depression were common after one year of Ebola response; psychosocial support may be needed for people with Ebola-related experiences. Preventing, detecting, and responding to mental health conditions should be an important component of global health security efforts.
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Ratnayake R, Crowe SJ, Jasperse J, Privette G, Stone E, Miller L, Hertz D, Fu C, Maenner MJ, Jambai A, Morgan O. Assessment of Community Event-Based Surveillance for Ebola Virus Disease, Sierra Leone, 2015. Emerg Infect Dis 2018; 22:1431-7. [PMID: 27434608 PMCID: PMC4982166 DOI: 10.3201/eid2208.160205] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Case detection improved, but many false alerts were generated, suggesting a need for additional staff training. In 2015, community event–based surveillance (CEBS) was implemented in Sierra Leone to assist with the detection of Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases. We assessed the sensitivity of CEBS for finding EVD cases during a 7-month period, and in a 6-week subanalysis, we assessed the timeliness of reporting cases with no known epidemiologic links at time of detection. Of the 12,126 CEBS reports, 287 (2%) met the suspected case definition, and 16 were confirmed positive. CEBS detected 30% (16/53) of the EVD cases identified during the study period. During the subanalysis, CEBS staff identified 4 of 6 cases with no epidemiologic links. These CEBS-detected cases were identified more rapidly than those detected by the national surveillance system; however, too few cases were detected to determine system timeliness. Although CEBS detected EVD cases, it largely generated false alerts. Future versions of community-based surveillance could improve case detection through increased staff training and community engagement.
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Jalloh MF, Bunnell R, Robinson S, Jalloh MB, Barry AM, Corker J, Sengeh P, VanSteelandt A, Li W, Dafae F, Diallo AA, Martel LD, Hersey S, Marston B, Morgan O, Redd JT. Assessments of Ebola knowledge, attitudes and practices in Forécariah, Guinea and Kambia, Sierra Leone, July-August 2015. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2017; 372:rstb.2016.0304. [PMID: 28396475 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0304] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/09/2017] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
The border region of Forécariah (Guinea) and Kambia (Sierra Leone) was of immense interest to the West Africa Ebola response. Cross-sectional household surveys with multi-stage cluster sampling procedure were used to collect random samples from Kambia (n = 635) in July 2015 and Forécariah (n = 502) in August 2015 to assess public knowledge, attitudes and practices related to Ebola. Knowledge of the disease was high in both places, and handwashing with soap and water was the most widespread prevention practice. Acceptance of safe alternatives to traditional burials was significantly lower in Forécariah compared with Kambia. In both locations, there was a minority who held discriminatory attitudes towards survivors. Radio was the predominant source of information in both locations, but those from Kambia were more likely to have received Ebola information from community sources (mosques/churches, community meetings or health workers) compared with those in Forécariah. These findings contextualize the utility of Ebola health messaging during the epidemic and suggest the importance of continued partnership with community leaders, including religious leaders, as a prominent part of future public health protection.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'.
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Deen GF, Broutet N, Xu W, Knust B, Sesay FR, McDonald SLR, Ervin E, Marrinan JE, Gaillard P, Habib N, Liu H, Liu W, Thorson AE, Yamba F, Massaquoi TA, James F, Ariyarajah A, Ross C, Bernstein K, Coursier A, Klena J, Carino M, Wurie AH, Zhang Y, Dumbuya MS, Abad N, Idriss B, Wi T, Bennett SD, Davies T, Ebrahim FK, Meites E, Naidoo D, Smith SJ, Ongpin P, Malik T, Banerjee A, Erickson BR, Liu Y, Liu Y, Xu K, Brault A, Durski KN, Winter J, Sealy T, Nichol ST, Lamunu M, Bangura J, Landoulsi S, Jambai A, Morgan O, Wu G, Liang M, Su Q, Lan Y, Hao Y, Formenty P, Ströher U, Sahr F. Ebola RNA Persistence in Semen of Ebola Virus Disease Survivors - Final Report. N Engl J Med 2017; 377:1428-1437. [PMID: 26465681 PMCID: PMC5798881 DOI: 10.1056/nejmoa1511410] [Citation(s) in RCA: 275] [Impact Index Per Article: 39.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Ebola virus has been detected in the semen of men after their recovery from Ebola virus disease (EVD). We report the presence of Ebola virus RNA in semen in a cohort of survivors of EVD in Sierra Leone. METHODS We enrolled a convenience sample of 220 adult male survivors of EVD in Sierra Leone, at various times after discharge from an Ebola treatment unit (ETU), in two phases (100 participants were in phase 1, and 120 in phase 2). Semen specimens obtained at baseline were tested by means of a quantitative reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assay with the use of the target sequences of NP and VP40 (in phase 1) or NP and GP (in phase 2). This study did not evaluate directly the risk of sexual transmission of EVD. RESULTS Of 210 participants who provided an initial semen specimen for analysis, 57 (27%) had positive results on quantitative RT-PCR. Ebola virus RNA was detected in the semen of all 7 men with a specimen obtained within 3 months after ETU discharge, in 26 of 42 (62%) with a specimen obtained at 4 to 6 months, in 15 of 60 (25%) with a specimen obtained at 7 to 9 months, in 4 of 26 (15%) with a specimen obtained at 10 to 12 months, in 4 of 38 (11%) with a specimen obtained at 13 to 15 months, in 1 of 25 (4%) with a specimen obtained at 16 to 18 months, and in no men with a specimen obtained at 19 months or later. Among the 46 participants with a positive result in phase 1, the median baseline cycle-threshold values (higher values indicate lower RNA values) for the NP and VP40 targets were lower within 3 months after ETU discharge (32.4 and 31.3, respectively; in 7 men) than at 4 to 6 months (34.3 and 33.1; in 25), at 7 to 9 months (37.4 and 36.6; in 13), and at 10 to 12 months (37.7 and 36.9; in 1). In phase 2, a total of 11 participants had positive results for NP and GP targets (samples obtained at 4.1 to 15.7 months after ETU discharge); cycle-threshold values ranged from 32.7 to 38.0 for NP and from 31.1 to 37.7 for GP. CONCLUSIONS These data showed the long-term presence of Ebola virus RNA in semen and declining persistence with increasing time after ETU discharge. (Funded by the World Health Organization and others.).
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Johnston LG, Bonilla L, Caballero T, Rodriguez M, Dolores Y, de la Rosa MA, Malla A, Burnett J, Terrero V, Martinez S, Morgan O. Associations of HIV Testing, Sexual Risk and Access to Prevention Among Female Sex Workers in the Dominican Republic. AIDS Behav 2017; 21:2362-2371. [PMID: 27896553 DOI: 10.1007/s10461-016-1616-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
The Caribbean region has one of the highest proportions of HIV in the general female population attributable to sex work. In 2008 (n = 1256) and 2012 (n = 1525) in the Dominican Republic, HIV biological and behavioral surveys were conducted among female sex workers (FSW) in four provinces using respondent driven sampling. Participants were ≥15 years who engaged in intercourse in exchange for money in the past 6 months and living/working in the study province. There were no statistically significant changes in HIV and other infections prevalence from 2008 to 2012, despite ongoing risky sexual practices. HIV testing and receiving results was low in all provinces. FSW in 2012 were more likely to receive HIV testing and results if they participated in HIV related information and education and had regular checkups at health centers. Further investigation is needed to understand barriers to HIV testing and access to prevention services.
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Karafillakis E, Jalloh MF, Nuriddin A, Larson HJ, Whitworth J, Lees S, Hageman KM, Sengeh P, Jalloh MB, Bunnell R, Carroll DD, Morgan O. 'Once there is life, there is hope' Ebola survivors' experiences, behaviours and attitudes in Sierra Leone, 2015. BMJ Glob Health 2016; 1:e000108. [PMID: 28588963 PMCID: PMC5321361 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2016-000108] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2016] [Revised: 09/23/2016] [Accepted: 09/26/2016] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Background In Sierra Leone, over 4000 individuals survived Ebola since the outbreak began in 2014. Because Ebola survivorship was largely unprecedented prior to this outbreak, little is known about survivor experiences during and post illness. Methods To assess survivors' experiences and attitudes related to Ebola, 28 in-depth interviews and short quantitative surveys with survivors from all four geographic regions of Sierra Leone were conducted in May 2015. Results Survivor experiences, emotions and attitudes changed over time as they moved from disease onset to treatment, discharge and life post-discharge. Survivors mentioned experiencing acute fear and depression when they fell ill. Only half reported positive experiences in holding centres but nearly all were positive about their treatment centre experiences. Survivor euphoria on discharge was followed by concerns about their financial situation and future. While all reported supportive attitudes from family members, about a third described discrimination and stigma from their communities. Over a third became unemployed, especially those previously engaged in petty trade. Survivor knowledge about sexual transmission risk reflected counselling messages. Many expressed altruistic motivations for abstinence or condom use. In addition, survivors were strongly motivated to help end Ebola and to improve the healthcare system. Key recommendations from survivors included improved counselling in holding centres and long-term government support for survivors, including opportunities for participation in Ebola response efforts. Conclusions Survivors face myriad economic, social and health challenges. Addressing survivor concerns, including the discrimination they face, could facilitate their reintegration into communities and their contributions to future Ebola responses.
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Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Aylward B, Bawo L, Bilivogui P, Blake IM, Brennan RJ, Cawthorne A, Cleary E, Clement P, Conteh R, Cori A, Dafae F, Dahl B, Dangou JM, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Fallah M, Ferguson NM, Fiebig L, Fraser C, Garske T, Gonzalez L, Hamblion E, Hamid N, Hersey S, Hinsley W, Jambei A, Jombart T, Kargbo D, Keita S, Kinzer M, George FK, Godefroy B, Gutierrez G, Kannangarage N, Mills HL, Moller T, Meijers S, Mohamed Y, Morgan O, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Nyenswah T, Perea W, Perkins D, Riley S, Rodier G, Rondy M, Sagrado M, Savulescu C, Schafer IJ, Schumacher D, Seyler T, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Wesseh CS, Yoti Z. Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa: A Retrospective Observational Study. PLoS Med 2016; 13:e1002170. [PMID: 27846234 PMCID: PMC5112802 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002170] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/24/2015] [Accepted: 10/07/2016] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The ongoing West African Ebola epidemic began in December 2013 in Guinea, probably from a single zoonotic introduction. As a result of ineffective initial control efforts, an Ebola outbreak of unprecedented scale emerged. As of 4 May 2015, it had resulted in more than 19,000 probable and confirmed Ebola cases, mainly in Guinea (3,529), Liberia (5,343), and Sierra Leone (10,746). Here, we present analyses of data collected during the outbreak identifying drivers of transmission and highlighting areas where control could be improved. METHODS AND FINDINGS Over 19,000 confirmed and probable Ebola cases were reported in West Africa by 4 May 2015. Individuals with confirmed or probable Ebola ("cases") were asked if they had exposure to other potential Ebola cases ("potential source contacts") in a funeral or non-funeral context prior to becoming ill. We performed retrospective analyses of a case line-list, collated from national databases of case investigation forms that have been reported to WHO. These analyses were initially performed to assist WHO's response during the epidemic, and have been updated for publication. We analysed data from 3,529 cases in Guinea, 5,343 in Liberia, and 10,746 in Sierra Leone; exposures were reported by 33% of cases. The proportion of cases reporting a funeral exposure decreased over time. We found a positive correlation (r = 0.35, p < 0.001) between this proportion in a given district for a given month and the within-district transmission intensity, quantified by the estimated reproduction number (R). We also found a negative correlation (r = -0.37, p < 0.001) between R and the district proportion of hospitalised cases admitted within ≤4 days of symptom onset. These two proportions were not correlated, suggesting that reduced funeral attendance and faster hospitalisation independently influenced local transmission intensity. We were able to identify 14% of potential source contacts as cases in the case line-list. Linking cases to the contacts who potentially infected them provided information on the transmission network. This revealed a high degree of heterogeneity in inferred transmissions, with only 20% of cases accounting for at least 73% of new infections, a phenomenon often called super-spreading. Multivariable regression models allowed us to identify predictors of being named as a potential source contact. These were similar for funeral and non-funeral contacts: severe symptoms, death, non-hospitalisation, older age, and travelling prior to symptom onset. Non-funeral exposures were strongly peaked around the death of the contact. There was evidence that hospitalisation reduced but did not eliminate onward exposures. We found that Ebola treatment units were better than other health care facilities at preventing exposure from hospitalised and deceased individuals. The principal limitation of our analysis is limited data quality, with cases not being entered into the database, cases not reporting exposures, or data being entered incorrectly (especially dates, and possible misclassifications). CONCLUSIONS Achieving elimination of Ebola is challenging, partly because of super-spreading. Safe funeral practices and fast hospitalisation contributed to the containment of this Ebola epidemic. Continued real-time data capture, reporting, and analysis are vital to track transmission patterns, inform resource deployment, and thus hasten and maintain elimination of the virus from the human population.
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McNamara LA, Schafer IJ, Nolen LD, Gorina Y, Redd JT, Lo T, Ervin E, Henao O, Dahl BA, Morgan O, Hersey S, Knust B. Ebola Surveillance - Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. MMWR Suppl 2016; 65:35-43. [PMID: 27389614 DOI: 10.15585/mmwr.su6503a6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Developing a surveillance system during a public health emergency is always challenging but is especially so in countries with limited public health infrastructure. Surveillance for Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in the West African countries heavily affected by Ebola (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone) faced numerous impediments, including insufficient numbers of trained staff, community reticence to report cases and contacts, limited information technology resources, limited telephone and Internet service, and overwhelming numbers of infected persons. Through the work of CDC and numerous partners, including the countries' ministries of health, the World Health Organization, and other government and nongovernment organizations, functional Ebola surveillance was established and maintained in these countries. CDC staff were heavily involved in implementing case-based surveillance systems, sustaining case surveillance and contact tracing, and interpreting surveillance data. In addition to helping the ministries of health and other partners understand and manage the epidemic, CDC's activities strengthened epidemiologic and data management capacity to improve routine surveillance in the countries affected, even after the Ebola epidemic ended, and enhanced local capacity to respond quickly to future public health emergencies. However, the many obstacles overcome during development of these Ebola surveillance systems highlight the need to have strong public health, surveillance, and information technology infrastructure in place before a public health emergency occurs. Intense, long-term focus on strengthening public health surveillance systems in developing countries, as described in the Global Health Security Agenda, is needed.The activities summarized in this report would not have been possible without collaboration with many U.S and international partners (http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/partners.html).
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Li W, Jalloh MF, Bunnell R, Aki-Sawyerr Y, Conteh L, Sengeh P, Redd JT, Hersey S, Morgan O, Jalloh MB, O'Leary A, Burdette E, Hageman K. Public Confidence in the Health Care System 1 Year After the Start of the Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak - Sierra Leone, July 2015. MMWR-MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY WEEKLY REPORT 2016; 65:538-42. [PMID: 27254016 DOI: 10.15585/mmwr.mm6521a3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
Ensuring confidence in the health care system has been a challenge to Ebola virus disease (Ebola) response and recovery efforts in Sierra Leone (1). A national multistage cluster-sampled household survey to assess knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) related to Sierra Leone's health care system was conducted in July 2015. Among 3,564 respondents, 93% were confident that a health care facility could treat suspected Ebola cases, and approximately 90% had confidence in the health system's ability to provide non-Ebola services, including immunizations, antenatal care, and maternity care. Respondents in districts with ongoing Ebola transmission ("active districts") and respondents with higher educational levels reported more confidence in the health care system than did respondents in nonactive districts and respondents with less education. Active districts were the focus of the Ebola response; these districts implemented intensified social mobilization and communication efforts, and established district response centers, Ebola-specific health care facilities, and ambulances. Greater infrastructure and response capacity might have resulted in higher confidence in the health care system in these areas. Respondents ranked Ebola and malaria as the country's most important health issues. Health system recovery efforts in Sierra Leone can build on existing public confidence in the health system.
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Hersey S, Martel LD, Jambai A, Keita S, Yoti Z, Meyer E, Seeman S, Bennett S, Ratto J, Morgan O, Akyeampong MA, Sainvil S, Worrell MC, Fitter D, Arnold KE. Ebola Virus Disease--Sierra Leone and Guinea, August 2015. MMWR-MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY WEEKLY REPORT 2015; 64:981-4. [PMID: 26355422 DOI: 10.15585/mmwr.mm6435a6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
The Ebola virus disease (Ebola) outbreak in West Africa began in late 2013 in Guinea (1) and spread unchecked during early 2014. By mid-2014, it had become the first Ebola epidemic ever documented. Transmission was occurring in multiple districts of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, and for the first time, in capital cities (2). On August 8, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (3). Ministries of Health, with assistance from multinational collaborators, have reduced Ebola transmission, and the number of cases is now declining. While Liberia has not reported a case since July 12, 2015, transmission has continued in Guinea and Sierra Leone, although the numbers of cases reported are at the lowest point in a year. In August 2015, Guinea and Sierra Leone reported 10 and four confirmed cases, respectively, compared with a peak of 526 (Guinea) and 1,997 (Sierra Leone) in November 2014. This report details the current situation in Guinea and Sierra Leone, outlines strategies to interrupt transmission, and highlights the need to maintain public health response capacity and vigilance for new cases at this critical time to end the outbreak.
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Morgan O. Fundamentals of color: shade matching and communication in esthetic dentistry, 2nd edition. Br Dent J 2012. [DOI: 10.1038/sj.bdj.2012.392] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Jiménez ML, Apostolou A, Suarez AJP, Meyer L, Hiciano S, Newton A, Morgan O, Then C, Pimentel R. Multinational cholera outbreak after wedding in the Dominican Republic. Emerg Infect Dis 2012; 17:2172-4. [PMID: 22204039 PMCID: PMC3310595 DOI: 10.3201/eid1711.111263] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
We conducted a case–control study of a cholera outbreak after a wedding in the Dominican Republic, January 22, 2011. Ill persons were more likely to report having consumed shrimp on ice (odds ratio 8.50) and ice cubes in beverages (odds ratio 3.62). Travelers to cholera-affected areas should avoid consuming uncooked seafood and untreated water.
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Tokars JI, Lewis P, DeStefano F, Wise M, Viray M, Morgan O, Gargiullo P, Vellozzi C. The risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome associated with influenza A (H1N1) 2009 monovalent vaccine and 2009-2010 seasonal influenza vaccines: results from self-controlled analyses. Pharmacoepidemiol Drug Saf 2012; 21:546-52. [PMID: 22407672 DOI: 10.1002/pds.3220] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2011] [Revised: 11/08/2011] [Accepted: 12/23/2011] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Emerging Infections Program implemented active, population-based surveillance for Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) following H1N1 vaccines in 10 states/metropolitan areas. We report additional analyses of these data using self-controlled methods, which avoid potential confounding from person-level factors and co-morbidities. METHODS Surveillance officers identified GBS cases with symptom onset during October 2009-April 2010 and ascertained receipt of H1N1 vaccines. We calculated self-controlled relative risks by comparing the number of cases with onset during a risk interval 1-42 days after vaccination with cases with onset during fixed (days 43-84) or variable (days 43-end of study period) control intervals. We calculated attributable risks by applying statistically significant relative risks to an independent estimate of GBS incidence. RESULTS Fifty-nine GBS cases received H1N1 vaccine with or without seasonal vaccine. The relative risk was 2.1 (95%CI 1.2, 3.5) by the variable-window and 3.0 (95%CI 1.4, 6.4) by the fixed-window analyses. The corresponding attributable risks per million doses administered were 1.5 (95%CI 0.3, 3.4) and 2.8 (95%CI 0.6, 7.4). CONCLUSIONS These attributable risks are similar to those of some previous formulations of seasonal influenza vaccine (about one to two cases per million doses administered), suggesting a low risk of GBS following the H1N1 vaccine that is not clearly higher than that of seasonal influenza vaccines.
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Mendoza C, Meites E, Briere E, Gernay J, Morgan O, Monegro NR. Preparing Health Care Workers for a Cholera Epidemic, Dominican Republic, 2010. Emerg Infect Dis 2011; 17:2177-8. [PMID: 22204042 PMCID: PMC3310570 DOI: 10.3201/eid1711.110703] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
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Morgan O. HTLV-1 associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis: how far have we come? W INDIAN MED J 2011; 60:505-512. [PMID: 22519224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
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Morgan O. Color atlas of dental implant surgery, 3rd edition. Br Dent J 2011. [DOI: 10.1038/sj.bdj.2011.137] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Morgan O. Finance for dentists: the essential handbook. Br Dent J 2010. [DOI: 10.1038/sj.bdj.2010.763] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Morgan O, Kuhne M, Nair P, Verlander NQ, Preece R, McDougal M, Zambon M, Reacher M. Personal protective equipment and risk for avian influenza (H7N3). Emerg Infect Dis 2009; 15:59-62. [PMID: 19116052 PMCID: PMC2662632 DOI: 10.3201/eid1501.070660] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
An outbreak of avian influenza (H7N3) among poultry resulted in laboratory-confirmed disease in 1 of 103 exposed persons. Incomplete use of personal protective equipment (PPE) was associated with conjunctivitis and influenza-like symptoms. Rigorous use of PPE by persons managing avian influenza outbreaks may reduce exposure to potentially hazardous infected poultry materials.
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Morgan O, Verlander NQ, Kennedy F, Moore M, Birch S, Kearney J, Lewthwaite P, Lewis R, O'Brian S, Osman J, Reacher M. Exposures and reported symptoms associated with occupational deployment to the Buncefield fuel depot fire, England 2005. Occup Environ Med 2008; 65:404-11. [DOI: 10.1136/oem.2007.035303] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
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Christie CDC, Steel-Duncan J, Palmer P, Pierre R, Harvey K, Johnson N, Samuels LA, Dunkley-Thompson J, Singh-Minott I, Anderson M, Billings C, Evans-Gilbert T, Rodriquez B, McDonald C, Moore J, Taylor F, Smikle MF, Williams E, Whorms S, Davis D, Mullings A, Morgan O, McDonald D, Alexander G, Onyonyor A, Hylton-Kong T, Weller P, Harris M, Woodham A, Haughton D, Carrington D, Figueroa JP. Paediatric and perinatal HIV/AIDS in Jamaica an international leadership initiative, 2002-2007. W INDIAN MED J 2008; 57:204-215. [PMID: 19583118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Paediatric and Perinatal HIV/AIDS remain significant health challenges in the Caribbean where the HIV seroprevalence is second only to Sub-Saharan Africa. METHOD We describe a collaborative approach to the prevention, treatment and care ofHIVin pregnant women, infants and children in Jamaica. A team of academic and government healthcare personnel collaborated to address the paediatric and perinatal HIV epidemic in Greater Kingston as a model for Jamaica (population 2.6 million, HIV seroprevalence 1.5%). A five-point plan was utilized and included leadership and training, preventing mother-to-child transmission (pMTCT), treatment and care of women, infants and children, outcomes-based research and local, regional and international outreach. RESULTS A core group of paediatric/perinatal HIV professionals were trained, including paediatricians, obstetricians, public health practitioners, nurses, microbiologists, data managers, information technology personnel and students to serve Greater Kingston (birth cohort 20,000). During September 2002 to August 2007, over 69 793 pregnant women presented for antenatal care. During these five years, significant improvements occurred in uptake of voluntary counselling (40% to 91%) and HIV-testing (53% to 102%). Eight hundred and eighty-three women tested HIV-positive with seroprevalence rates of 1-2% each year The use of modified short course zidovudine or nevirapine in the first three years significantly reduced mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV from 29% to 6% (RR 0.27; 95%0 CI--0.10, 0.68). During 2005 to 2007 using maternal highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) with zidovudine and lamivudine with either nevirapine, nelfinavir or lopinavir/ritonavir and infant zidovudine and nevirapine, MTCT was further reduced to an estimated 1.6% in Greater Kingston and 4.75% islandwide. In five years, we evaluated 1570 children in four-weekly paediatric infectious diseases clinics in Kingston, St Andrew and St Catherine and in six rural outreach sites throughout Jamaica; 24% (377) had HIV/AIDS and 76% (1193) were HIV-exposed. Among the infected children, 79% (299 of 377) initiated HAART resulting in reduced HIV-attributable childhood morbidity and mortality islandwide. An outcomes-based research programme was successfully implemented. CONCLUSION Working collaboratively, our mission of pMTCT of HIV and improving the quality of life for families living and affected by HIV/AIDS in Jamaica is being achieved.
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Johnson N, Palmer P, Samuels LA, Morgan O, Onyonyor A, Anderson M, Moore J, Billings C, Harvey KM, Mullings A, McDonald D, Alexander G, Smikle MF, Williams EW, Davis D, Christie CDC. Evolving care of HIV-infected pregnant women in Jamaica--from nevirapine to HAART. W INDIAN MED J 2008; 57:216-222. [PMID: 19583119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Ministry of Health, Jamaica, is scaling-up programmes to improve the health of HIV-positive pregnant women according to the modified WHO recommended preventative mother to child transmission (pMTCT) regimens of therapy based upon the mother's clinical and immunological status. Highly-active antiretroviral drugs (HAART) can result in successful pMTCT to < 1%. We report the clinical and immunological characteristics of HIV/AIDS in an era of evolving treatment and care of HIV-infected pregnant Jamaican women. SUBJECTS AND METHOD Clinical records were reviewed of patients registered in antenatal clinics in Greater Kingston and St. Catherine, Jamaica (annual birth cohort--20,000) between September 2002 and August 2006. Disease status was determined using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) classification system for adult HIV/AIDS. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were documented and analyzed. RESULTS During the four-year period, 571 HIV-infected women were enrolled; 62% from Victoria Jubilee Hospital, 25% from Spanish Town Hospital and 13% from the University Hospital of the West Indies. Mean age was 27-29 (range 15-41) years, median parity was 2 (range 0-9) and 68-70% were unemployed. Ninety-five per cent had live births. CDC categories of illnesses were A--mild disease in 82% (n=473), B--moderate disease in 4.4% (n=24) and C--severe disease in 1.4% (n=8) while 12% (n=66) had insufficient data. During the first three years, CD4+ cell counts were evaluated in only 2.5% (10 of 406) of patients with median of 344 cells/microL, compared to CD4 evaluation in 50% (83 of 165 women) in the last year with median of573 cells/uL. Antiretroviral (ARV) medications primarily for pMTCT were given to 89% (n=506) ofwomen. Of these, uptake of HAART increased during years 1-3 from 2-3% to 62% in year four Within two years post-partum, 24 women died, 92% (n=22)from the direct complications of HIV/AIDS. CONCLUSION A comprehensive system of care of HIV in the peripartum period has been developed in Jamaica. Detailed medical evaluation during pregnancy is performed with modern guidelines and increasing laboratory availability of CD4+ cell counts and viral loads. We believe declining HIV infection rates in Jamaican infants and healthier mothers are a direct consequence of increased testing in pregnancy with early diagnosis and initiation of HAART-based pMTCT regimens in pregnant women.
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