Associations of Smokeless Tobacco Use With Cardiovascular Disease Risk: Insights From the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study

INTRODUCTION

Cigarette smoking is strongly associated with the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, evidence is limited as to whether smokeless tobacco (ST) use is associated with CVD.

AIMS AND METHODS

Using data from 4347 adults in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (2013-2014), we compared geometric mean concentrations of CVD-related harm biomarkers and biomarkers of exposure among exclusive ST users and exclusive cigarette smokers-in relation to recent nicotine exposure-and never tobacco users, adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, income, body mass index, and CVD. Biomarker levels among exclusive ST users who were former established cigarette smokers were compared with exclusive cigarette smokers.

RESULTS

Compared with cigarette smokers, ST users had significantly higher concentrations of total nicotine equivalents (TNE) but lower concentrations of inflammatory (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, intercellular adhesion molecule, fibrinogen) and oxidative stress (8-isoprostane) biomarkers (all p < .05). Biomarker levels among ST users were similar to never smokers. ST users who were former cigarette smokers had lower levels of inflammatory and oxidative stress biomarkers and biomarkers of exposure (cadmium, lead, 1-hydroxypyrene, acrylonitrile, and acrolein), compared with cigarettes smokers (p < .05), despite having higher TNE levels (p < .05). Among cigarette smokers, but not among ST users, inflammatory biomarkers and TNE were highly correlated.

CONCLUSIONS

ST use is not associated with increases in biomarkers of CVD-related harm and exposure, compared with never smokers, despite exposure to nicotine at levels higher than those observed among cigarette smokers. These findings support the concept that increases in CVD risk among cigarette smokers is caused primarily by constituents of tobacco smoke other than nicotine.

IMPLICATIONS

Despite having higher levels of nicotine and compared with exclusive cigarette smokers, exclusive ST users (including those who were former cigarette smokers) had significantly lower concentrations of inflammatory and oxidative stress biomarkers, comparable to levels observed among never tobacco users. These findings suggest that increases in CVD risk among cigarette smokers is caused primarily by tobacco constituents other than nicotine and that switching to ST is likely associated with lower CVD risk.

Excess Mortality With Alzheimer Disease and Related Dementias as an Underlying or Contributing Cause During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the US

Importance

Adults with Alzheimer disease and related dementias (ADRD) are particularly vulnerable to the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Deaths associated with ADRD increased substantially in pandemic year 1. It is unclear whether mortality associated with ADRD declined when better prevention strategies, testing, and vaccines became widely available in year 2.

Objective

To compare pandemic-era excess deaths associated with ADRD between year 1 and year 2 overall and by age, sex, race and ethnicity, and place of death.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This time series analysis used all death certificates of US decedents 65 years and older with ADRD as an underlying or contributing cause of death from January 2014 through February 2022.

Exposure

COVID-19 pandemic era.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Pandemic-era excess deaths associated with ADRD were defined as the difference between deaths with ADRD as an underlying or contributing cause observed from March 2020 to February 2021 (year 1) and March 2021 to February 2022 (year 2) compared with expected deaths during this period. Expected deaths were estimated using data from January 2014 to February 2020 fitted with autoregressive integrated moving average models.

Results

Overall, 2 334 101 death certificates were analyzed. A total of 94 688 (95% prediction interval [PI], 84 192-104 890) pandemic-era excess deaths with ADRD were estimated in year 1 and 21 586 (95% PI, 10 631-32 450) in year 2. Declines in ADRD-related deaths in year 2 were substantial for every age, sex, and racial and ethnic group evaluated. Pandemic-era ADRD-related excess deaths declined among nursing home/long-term care residents (from 34 259 [95% PI, 25 819-42 677] in year 1 to -22 050 [95% PI, -30 765 to -13 273] in year 2), but excess deaths at home remained high (from 34 487 [95% PI, 32 815-36 142] in year 1 to 28 804 [95% PI, 27 067-30 571] in year 2).

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found that large increases in mortality with ADRD as an underlying or contributing cause of death occurred in COVID-19 pandemic year 1 but were largely mitigated in pandemic year 2. The most pronounced declines were observed for deaths in nursing home/long-term care settings. Conversely, excess deaths at home and in medical facilities remained high in year 2.

Maximum and Time-Dependent Body Mass Index and Breast Cancer Incidence Among Postmenopausal Women in the Black Women's Health Study

While excess weight is an established risk factor for postmenopausal breast cancer, consideration of maximum body mass index (maxBMI; BMI is calculated as weight (kg)/height (m)2) or BMI at a point in time relevant for breast carcinogenesis may offer new insights. We prospectively evaluated maxBMI and time-dependent BMI in relation to breast cancer incidence among 31,028 postmenopausal women in the Black Women's Health Study. During 1995-2015, a total of 1,384 diagnoses occurred, including 787 estrogen-receptor (ER)-positive (ER+) cases and 310 ER-negative (ER-) cases. BMI was assessed at baseline and 2, 4, 6, and 8 years before diagnosis. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Compared with women with BMI <25, those with BMI ≥35 had increased risk of ER+ breast cancer but not ER- breast cancer. For BMI assessed 2 years before diagnosis, the HRs for ER+ breast cancer associated with maxBMI ≥35 and time-dependent BMI ≥35 were 1.42 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10, 1.84) and 1.63 (95% CI: 1.25, 2.13), respectively. The corresponding HR for time-dependent BMI assessed 6 years before diagnosis was 1.95 (95% CI: 1.45, 2.62). These findings suggest strong associations of BMI with risk of ER+ breast cancer in postmenopausal women, regardless of timing of BMI assessment.

COVID-19 and All-Cause Mortality by Race, Ethnicity, and Age Across Five Periods of the Pandemic in the United States

Racial/ethnic and age disparities in COVID-19 and all-cause mortality during 2020 are well documented, but less is known about their evolution over time. We examine changes in age-specific mortality across five pandemic periods in the United States from March 2020 to December 2022 among four racial/ethnic groups (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic Asian) for ages 35+. We fit Gompertz models to all-cause and COVID-19 death rates by 5-year age groups and construct age-specific racial/ethnic mortality ratios across an Initial peak (Mar-Aug 2020), Winter peak (Nov 2020-Feb 2021), Delta peak (Aug-Oct 2021), Omicron peak (Nov 2021-Feb 2022), and Endemic period (Mar-Dec 2022). We then compare to all-cause patterns observed in 2019. The steep age gradients in COVID-19 mortality in the Initial and Winter peak shifted during the Delta peak, with substantial increases in mortality at working ages, before gradually returning to an older age pattern in the subsequent periods. We find a disproportionate COVID-19 mortality burden on racial and ethnic minority populations early in the pandemic, which led to an increase in all-cause mortality disparities and a temporary elimination of the Hispanic mortality advantage at certain age groups. Mortality disparities narrowed over time, with racial/ethnic all-cause inequalities during the Endemic period generally returning to pre-pandemic levels. Black and Hispanic populations, however, faced a younger age gradient in all-cause mortality in the Endemic period relative to 2019, with younger Hispanic and Black adults in a slightly disadvantageous position and older Black adults in a slightly advantageous position, relative to before the pandemic.

Comprehensive review of the national surveys that assess E-cigarette use domains among youth and adults in the United States

Surveillance of e-cigarette use among different population groups is important for the timely implementation and evaluation of tobacco regulatory policies. In this review, we identified 13 nationally representative, repeatedly conducted epidemiologic surveys that assess e-cigarette use among U.S. youth and/or adults and have been instrumental in e-cigarette surveillance. These surveys included National Youth Tobacco Survey, Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, Monitoring the Future Survey, International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project (ITC) Youth Tobacco and Vaping Survey, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, National Health Interview Survey, Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey, Health Information National Trends Survey, Tobacco Products and Risk Perception Surveys, ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, National Survey on Drug Use and Health, and Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health. These surveys vary in scope and detail, with their unique strengths and the regulatory questions that can be answered using each survey data. We also highlighted the gaps in these surveys and made recommendations for improvement.

Tobacco Use Prevalence and Transitions From 2013 to 2018 Among Adults With a History of Cardiovascular Disease

Background Although tobacco product use and transitions have been characterized in the general population, few studies have focused on individuals with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a population-based sample. Methods and Results We examined tobacco use prevalence and longitudinal patterns of tobacco product transitions in adults (≥18 years) of the nationally representative PATH (Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health) study, from 2013 to 2014 (Wave 1) through 2016 to 2018 (Wave 4). Prevalent CVD was classified through self-report of having had a heart attack, heart failure, stroke, or other heart condition. Factors associated with tobacco product use and transitions were investigated using survey logistic regression. We examined 2615 participants with self-reported CVD at Wave 1. Overall, 28.9% reported current tobacco use, equating to ≈6.2 million adults in the United States with prevalent CVD and current tobacco use. Among adults with CVD who are current tobacco users, the most commonly used product was cigarettes (82.8%), followed by any type of cigar (23.7%), and e-cigarette use (23.3%). E-cigarette use without concurrent cigarette use among participants with prevalent CVD was uncommon (1.1%). Factors associated with tobacco use were younger age, male sex, had lower education level, and lack of knowledge about the association between smoking and CVD. Men with prevalent CVD were less likely to use e-cigarettes compared with women (odds ratio [OR], 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5-0.9). Among cigarette users with CVD, transition rates between Waves 1 and 4 demonstrated <5% decrease in cigarette, with a 0.5% increase in e-cigarette use. Only ≈10% were in formal tobacco cessation programs. Conclusions Despite known harmful cardiovascular effects, over one fourth of adults with prevalent CVD use tobacco products and few quit smoking over the 4 waves of the PATH data set.

"Pandemic of the unvaccinated"? At midlife, white people are less vaccinated but still at less risk of Covid-19 mortality in Minnesota

Introduction

Recent research underscores the exceptionally young age distribution of Covid-19 deaths in the United States compared with international peers. This brief characterizes how high levels of Covid mortality at midlife ages (45-64) are deeply intertwined with continuing racial inequity in Covid-19 mortality.

Methods

Mortality data from Minnesota in 2020-2022 were analyzed in June 2022. Death certificate data and published vaccination rates in Minnesota allow vaccination and mortality rates to be observed with greater age and temporal precision than national data.

Results

Black, Hispanic, and Asian adults under age 65 were all more highly vaccinated than white populations of the same ages during most of Minnesota's substantial and sustained Delta surge and all of the subsequent Omicron surge. However, white mortality rates were lower than those of all other groups. These disparities were extreme; at midlife ages (ages 45-64), during the Omicron period, more highly-vaccinated populations had COVID-19 mortality that was 164% (Asian-American), 115% (Hispanic), or 208% (Black) of white Covid-19 mortality at these ages. In Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) populations as a whole, Covid-19 mortality at ages 55-64 was greater than white mortality at 10 years older.

Conclusions

This discrepancy between vaccination and mortality patterning by race/ethnicity suggests that, if the current period is a "pandemic of the unvaccinated," it also remains a "pandemic of the disadvantaged" in ways that can decouple from vaccination rates. This result implies an urgent need to center health equity in the development of Covid-19 policy measures.

Gaps in the type 2 diabetes care cascade: a national perspective using South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) database

BACKGROUND

Research out of South Africa estimates the total unmet need for care for those with type 2 diabetes mellitus (diabetes) at 80%. We evaluated the care cascade using South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) database and assessed if HIV infection impacts progression through its stages.

METHODS

The cohort includes patients from government facilities with their first glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) or plasma glucose (fasting (FPG); random (RPG)) measured between January 2012 to March 2015 in the NHLS. Lab-diagnosed diabetes was defined as HbA1c ≥ 6.5%, FPG ≥ 7.0mmol/l, or RPG ≥ 11.1mmol/l. Cascade stages post diagnosis were retention-in-care and glycaemic control (defined as an HbA1c < 7.0% or FPG < 8.0mmol/l or RPG < 10.0mmol/l) over 24-months. We estimated gaps at each stage nationally and by people living with HIV (PLWH) and without (PLWOH).

RESULTS

Of the 373,889 patients tested for diabetes, 43.2% had an HbA1c or blood glucose measure indicating a diabetes diagnosis. Amongst those with lab-diagnosed diabetes, 30.9% were retained-in-care (based on diabetes labs) and 8.7% reached glycaemic control by 24-months. Prevalence of lab-diagnosed diabetes in PLWH was 28.6% versus 47.3% in PLWOH. Among those with lab-diagnosed diabetes, 34.3% of PLWH were retained-in-care versus 30.3% PLWOH. Among people retained-in-care, 33.8% of PLWH reached glycaemic control over 24-months versus 28.6% of PLWOH.

CONCLUSIONS

In our analysis of South Africa's NHLS database, we observed that 70% of patients diagnosed with diabetes did not maintain in consistent diabetes care, with fewer than 10% reaching glycemic control within 24 months. We noted a disparity in diabetes prevalence between PLWH and PLWOH, potentially linked to different screening methods. These differences underscore the intricacies in care but also emphasize how HIV care practices could guide better management of chronic diseases like diabetes. Our results underscore the imperative for specialized strategies to bolster diabetes care in South Africa.

County-level estimates of excess mortality associated with COVID-19 in the United States

The COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. has been largely monitored using death certificates containing reference to COVID-19. However, prior analyses reveal that a significant percentage of excess deaths associated with the pandemic were not directly assigned to COVID-19. In this study, we estimated a generalized linear model of expected mortality based on historical trends in deaths by county of residence between 2011 and 2019. We used the results of the model to generate estimates of excess mortality and excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 in 2020 for 1470 county sets in the U.S. representing 3138 counties. Across the country, we estimated that 438,386 excess deaths occurred in 2020, among which 87.5% were assigned to COVID-19. Some regions (Mideast, Great Lakes, New England, and Far West) reported the most excess deaths in large central metros, whereas other regions (Southwest, Southeast, Plains, and Rocky Mountains) reported the highest excess mortality in nonmetro areas. The proportion assigned to COVID-19 was lowest in large central metro areas (79.3%). Regionally, the proportion of excess deaths assigned to COVID-19 was lowest in the Southeast (81.6%), Southwest (82.6%), Far West (83.7%), and Rocky Mountains (86.7%). Across the regions, the number of excess deaths exceeded the number of directly assigned COVID-19 deaths in most counties. The exception to this pattern occurred in New England, which reported more directly assigned COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths in metro and nonmetro areas. Many county sets had substantial numbers of excess deaths that were not accounted for in direct COVID-19 death counts. Estimates of excess mortality at the local level can inform the allocation of resources to areas most impacted by the pandemic and contribute to positive behavior feedback loops, such as increases in mask-wearing and vaccine uptake.

Differences Between Reported COVID-19 Deaths and Estimated Excess Deaths in Counties Across the United States, March 2020 to February 2022

Accurate and timely tracking of COVID-19 deaths is essential to a well-functioning public health surveillance system. The extent to which official COVID-19 death tallies have captured the true toll of the pandemic in the United States is unknown. In the current study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate monthly excess mortality in each county over the first two years of the pandemic and compare these estimates to the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 on death certificates. Overall, we estimated that 268,176 excess deaths were not reported as Covid-19 deaths during the first two years of the Covid-19 pandemic, which represented 23.7% of all excess deaths that occurred. Differences between excess deaths and reported COVID-19 deaths were substantial in both the first and second year of the pandemic. Excess deaths were less likely to be reported as COVID-19 deaths in the Mountain division, in the South, and in nonmetro counties. The number of excess deaths exceeded COVID-19 deaths in all Census divisions except for the New England and Middle Atlantic divisions where there were more COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths in large metro areas and medium or small metro areas. Increases in excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 followed similar patterns over time to increases in reported COVID-19 deaths and typically preceded or occurred concurrently with increases in reported COVID-19 deaths. Estimates from this study can be used to inform targeting of resources to areas in which the true toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has been underestimated.

Association of Weight at Different Ages and All-Cause Mortality Among Older Adults in the US

Objective: Assess the association of BMI and BMI change with mortality. Methods: Using data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS) on participants born mainly in 1939 (n=4922), we investigated the associations between various measures of BMI across the life course (age 54 BMI; age 65 BMI; age 72 BMI; lifetime maximum BMI; BMI change between ages 54 and 65; BMI change between ages 65 and 72) and mortality. We also assessed whether these associations are mediated by late life health. Results: BMI at age 54 was more strongly associated with late life mortality than BMI at older ages. The association between BMI change and mortality varied based on the timing of weight change. Health at age 72, particularly self-rated health, diabetes, and physical functioning, mediated the observed associations. Conclusion: Knowing older people's weight at midlife and how their weight has changed may be more important in assessing late life mortality risk than their current weight.

Geographic and Temporal Patterns in Covid-19 Mortality by Race and Ethnicity in the United States from March 2020 to February 2022

Prior research has established that American Indian, Alaska Native, Black, Hispanic, and Pacific Islander populations in the United States have experienced substantially higher mortality rates from Covid-19 compared to non-Hispanic white residents during the first year of the pandemic. What remains less clear is how mortality rates have changed for each of these racial/ethnic groups during 2021, given the increasing prevalence of vaccination. In particular, it is unknown how these changes in mortality have varied geographically. In this study, we used provisional data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) to produce age-standardized estimates of Covid-19 mortality by race/ethnicity in the United States from March 2020 to February 2022 in each metro-nonmetro category, Census region, and Census division. We calculated changes in mortality rates between the first and second years of the pandemic and examined mortality changes by month. We found that when Covid-19 first affected a geographic area, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic populations experienced extremely high levels of Covid-19 mortality and racial/ethnic inequity that were not repeated at any other time during the pandemic. Between the first and second year of the pandemic, racial/ethnic inequities in Covid-19 mortality decreased-but were not eliminated-for Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic AIAN residents. These inequities decreased due to reductions in mortality for these populations alongside increases in non-Hispanic white mortality. Though racial/ethnic inequities in Covid-19 mortality decreased, substantial inequities still existed in most geographic areas during the pandemic's second year: Non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic AIAN, and Hispanic residents reported higher Covid-19 death rates in rural areas than in urban areas, indicating that these communities are facing serious public health challenges. At the same time, the non-Hispanic white mortality rate worsened in rural areas during the second year of the pandemic, suggesting there may be unique factors driving mortality in this population. Finally, vaccination rates were associated with reductions in Covid-19 mortality for Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic white residents, and increased vaccination may have contributed to the decreases in racial/ethnic inequities in Covid-19 mortality observed during the second year of the pandemic. Despite reductions in mortality, Covid-19 mortality remained elevated in nonmetro areas and increased for some racial/ethnic groups, highlighting the need for increased vaccination delivery and equitable public health measures especially in rural communities. Taken together, these findings highlight the continued need to prioritize health equity in the pandemic response and to modify the structures and policies through which systemic racism operates and has generated racial health inequities.

Motivations for E-cigarette use and associations with vaping frequency and smoking abstinence among adults who smoke cigarettes in the United States

INTRODUCTION

In observational studies, vaping daily is positively associated with cigarette smoking abstinence, while non-daily vaping is associated with less smoking abstinence (versus no e-cigarette use). It remains unknown whether cigarette smokers who vape daily have different motivations for using e-cigarettes than those who vape non-daily.

METHODS

Using latent class analysis and 10 self-reported reasons for vaping, we identified sub-groups of participants based on vaping motivations among 1544 adult (≥18 y) dual users of e-cigarettes and cigarettes at wave 4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (2016-2018). We examined the association of motivation sub-groups with vaping frequency at wave 4, and subsequent cigarette smoking abstinence at wave 5 (2018-2019). Additional analyses examined the association of vaping frequency with smoking abstinence before and after adjustment for motivation sub-groups.

RESULTS

Four distinct sub-groups of e-cigarette users emerged, including 54 % of participants who were "Vaping Enthusiasts", 20 % who vaped for "Convenience and Social Acceptability", 10 % classified as "Experimenters", and 16 % who vaped for "Quitting Smoking and Harm Reduction." The Convenience and Social Acceptability sub-group were less likely than "Vaping Enthusiasts" (AOR=0.29, 95 %CI[0.20-0.42]) and "Quitting Smoking and Harm Reduction" (AOR=0.41, 95 %CI[0.24-0.71]) classes to vape daily (versus non-daily). Sub-groups were not associated with smoking abstinence after one year. Adjustment for motivation sub-groups did not attenuate a positive association of daily vaping with smoking abstinence.

CONCLUSIONS

Cigarette smokers who vaped for convenience and social acceptability were less frequent e-cigarette users than those with other vaping motivations. Vaping motivations were not associated with subsequent smoking abstinence.

Excess all-cause mortality across counties in the United States, March 2020 to December 2021

Official Covid-19 death counts have underestimated the mortality impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States. Excess mortality, which compares observed deaths to deaths expected in the absence of the pandemic, is a useful measure for assessing the total effect of the pandemic on mortality levels. In the present study, we produce county-level estimates of excess mortality for 3,127 counties between March 2020 and December 2021. We fit two hierarchical linear models to county-level death rates from January 2015 to December 2019 and predict expected deaths for each month during the pandemic. We compare observed deaths to these estimates to obtain excess deaths for each county-month. An estimated 936,911 excess deaths occurred during 2020 and 2021, of which 171,168 (18.3%) were not assigned to Covid-19 on death certificates as an underlying cause of death. Urban counties in the Far West, Great Lakes, Mideast, and New England experienced a substantial mortality disadvantage in 2020, whereas rural counties in these regions had higher mortality in 2021. In the Southeast, Southwest, Rocky Mountain, and Plains regions, there was a rural mortality disadvantage in 2020, which was exacerbated in 2021. The proportion of excess deaths assigned to Covid-19 was lower in 2020 (76.3%) than in 2021 (87.0%), suggesting that a larger fraction of excess deaths was assigned to Covid-19 later in the pandemic. However, in rural areas and in the Southeast and Southwest a large share of excess deaths was still not assigned to Covid-19 during 2021.

SIGNIFICANCE

Deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic have been primarily monitored through death certificates containing reference to Covid-19. This approach has missed more than 170,000 deaths related to the pandemic between 2020 and 2021. While the ascertainment of Covid-19 deaths improved during 2021, the full effects of the pandemic still remained obscured in some regions. County-level estimates of excess mortality are useful for studying geographic inequities in the mortality burden associated with the pandemic and identifying specific regions where the full mortality burden was significantly underreported (i.e. Southeast). They can also be used to inform resource allocation decisions at the federal and state levels and encourage uptake of preventive measures in communities with low vaccine uptake.

Excess natural-cause mortality in US counties and its association with reported COVID-19 deaths

In the United States, estimates of excess deaths attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic have consistently surpassed reported COVID-19 death counts. Excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes may represent unrecognized COVID-19 deaths, deaths caused by pandemic health care interruptions, and/or deaths from the pandemic's socioeconomic impacts. The geographic and temporal distribution of these deaths may help to evaluate which explanation is most plausible. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to produce monthly estimates of excess natural-cause mortality for US counties over the first 30 mo of the pandemic. From March 2020 through August 2022, 1,194,610 excess natural-cause deaths occurred nationally [90% PI (Posterior Interval): 1,046,000 to 1,340,204]. A total of 162,886 of these excess natural-cause deaths (90% PI: 14,276 to 308,480) were not reported to COVID-19. Overall, 15.8 excess deaths were reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes for every 100 reported COVID-19 deaths. This number was greater in nonmetropolitan counties (36.0 deaths), the West (Rocky Mountain states: 31.6 deaths; Pacific states: 25.5 deaths), and the South (East South Central states: 26.0 deaths; South Atlantic states: 25.0 deaths; West South Central states: 24.2 deaths). In contrast, reported COVID-19 death counts surpassed estimates of excess natural-cause deaths in metropolitan counties in the New England and Middle Atlantic states. Increases in reported COVID-19 deaths correlated temporally with increases in excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes in the same and/or prior month. This suggests that many excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes during the first 30 mo of the pandemic in the United States were unrecognized COVID-19 deaths.

Psychosocial stressors and current e-cigarette use in the youth risk behavior survey

BACKGROUND

This study explores the association between psychosocial stressors and current e-cigarette use among adolescents in the United States.

METHODS

We used data from 12,767 participants in the 2019 National Youth Risk Behavioral Survey to examine the association between psychosocial stressors (bullying, sexual assault, safety-related absence from school, depressive symptoms, suicidal ideation, physical altercation, and weapon threats) and past-30-day e-cigarette use using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models. We examined the association for each stressor and then as a burden score (0-7). To compare the strength of the association between stressors and current e-cigarette use to current combustible cigarette use, we additionally examined the association between each stressor and current combustible cigarette use.

RESULTS

Approximately 32.7% reported current e-cigarette use. The weighted prevalence of current e-cigarette use was higher among individuals who experienced stressors than those who did not. For example, bullying (43.9% vs. 29.0%). Similar prevalence patterns were seen among other stressors. Individuals who experienced stressors had significantly higher adjusted odds of current e-cigarette use than those who did not (OR [Odds Ratio] range: 1.47-1.75). Similarly, individuals with higher burden scores had a higher prevalence (zero [20.5%], one [32.8%], two [41.4%], three [49.6%], four to seven [60.9%]) and higher odds of current e-cigarette use (OR range: 1.43-2.73) than those with a score of zero. The strength of the association between the stressors and e-cigarette use was similar to that between the stressors and combustible cigarette use.

CONCLUSION

The study demonstrates a significant association between psychosocial stressors and adolescent e-cigarette use, highlighting the potential importance of interventions, such as targeted school-based programs that address stressors and promote stress management, as possible means of reducing adolescent e-cigarette use. Future research directions include exploring underlying mechanisms linking stressors to e-cigarette use and evaluating the effectiveness of interventions addressing stressors in reducing adolescent e-cigarette use.

Mortality Trends Among Early Adults in the United States, 1999-2023

This cross-sectional study examines trends in mortality rates among adults aged 25 to 44 years across the pre–COVID-19 pandemic, pandemic, and postpandemic periods.

Health Warnings on Instagram Advertisements for Synthetic Nicotine E-Cigarettes and Engagement

Importance

Synthetic nicotine is increasingly used in e-cigarette liquids along with flavors to appeal to youths. Regulatory loopholes have allowed tobacco manufacturers to use social media to target youths.

Objective

To analyze the extent to which synthetic nicotine e-cigarette brands have implemented US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) health warning requirements and to evaluate the association between health warnings and user engagement on Instagram.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this cross-sectional study, posts from 25 brands were analyzed across a 14-month period (August 2021 to October 2022). A content analysis was paired with Warning Label Multi-Layer Image Identification, a computer vision algorithm designed to detect the presence of health warnings and whether the detected health warning complied with FDA guidelines by (1) appearing on the upper portion of the advertisement and (2) occupying at least 20% of the advertisement's area. Data analysis was performed from March to June 2024.

Exposure

Synthetic nicotine e-cigarette advertisement on Instagram.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The outcome variables were user engagement (number of likes and comments). Negative binomial regression analyses were used to evaluate the association between the presence and characteristics of health warnings and user engagement.

Results

Of a total of 2071 posts, only 263 (13%) complied with both FDA health warning requirements. Among 924 posts with health warnings, 732 (79%) displayed warnings in the upper image portion, and 270 (29%) had a warning covering at least 20% of the pixel area. Posts with warnings received fewer comments than posts without warnings (mean [SD], 1.8 [2.5] vs 5.4 [11.7] comments; adjusted incident rate ratio [aIRR], 0.70; 95% CI, 0.57-0.86; P < .001). For posts containing warnings, a larger percentage of the warning label's pixel area was associated with fewer comments (aIRR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.93-0.99; P = .003). Flavored posts with health warnings placed in the upper image portion received more likes than posts with warnings in the lower portion (mean [SD], 34.6 [35.2] vs 19.9 [19.2] likes; aIRR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.07-2.06; P = .02).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cross-sectional study of synthetic nicotine brand Instagram accounts, 87% of sampled posts did not adhere to FDA health warning requirements in tobacco promotions. Enforcement of FDA compliant health warnings on social media may reduce youth engagement with tobacco marketing.

Trends in Obesity Care Among US Adults, 2010-2021

BACKGROUND

Obesity is a major contributor to mortality in the United States. Clinical guidelines emphasize the need for multimodal treatment, but novel treatments may be changing care-seeking behavior.

OBJECTIVE

To characterize obesity treatment access patterns and factors associated with obesity care from 2010 to 2021 in the United States.

RESEARCH DESIGN

This multiyear cross-sectional study was conducted using Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data, covering respondents from 2010 to 2021.

SUBJECTS

We defined individuals with a BMI ≥30 or those with any health care event linked to a diagnosis of obesity as being clinically eligible for obesity treatment.

MEASURES

The primary outcome was the proportion of individuals assumed eligible for obesity treatment who accessed obesity treatment or were prescribed medication to treat obesity in each calendar year from 2010 to 2021.

RESULTS

The population of individuals eligible for obesity treatment was 82,729. In total, 1311 (1.6%) reported receiving treatment for obesity. The proportion of participants receiving a prescription for obesity increased from 0.3% (0.2%, 0.6%) in 2010 to 1.8% (1.3%, 2.5%) in 2021. Multivariable logistic regression found that female individuals, older individuals, and those with higher levels of education had higher odds of accessing obesity medication or any obesity treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Utilization of pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical obesity treatment has increased from 2010 to 2021 but remains low. The likelihood of receiving treatment was lower for groups with lower socioeconomic status. As more effective obesity therapies become available, efforts should be made to ensure equitable access.

Vaping transitions and incident depressive symptoms among young adults: a marginal structural model analysis

The extent to which vaping influences depression is unclear but could be estimated through application of novel epidemiologic methods. Among a prospective cohort of young adults from California who screened negative for depression, we estimated repeated-measures marginal structural models to examine the association of 4 vaping transitions from time T to T + 1 (persistent use, discontinuation, initiation, persistent nonuse) with risk of clinically significant depressive symptoms at T + 1, simultaneously across three ~ 1.5-year time intervals between 2017 and 2021. Stabilized inverse probability of treatment and censoring weights adjusted for time-dependent confounders and selection bias. Among n = 3496 observations (1806 participants, mean pooled baseline age = 19.5), 8.1% reported persistent vaping from T to T + 1, 6.2% reported discontinuation (ie, use at T and no use at T + 1), 6.5% initiated e-cigarettes (ie, no use at T and use at T + 1), and 79.2% reported persistent nonuse at both time points. Compared to persistent vaping at 2 waves, persistent nonuse (relative risk [RR] = 0.76; 95% CI, 0.62-0.93) and discontinuation (RR = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.52-0.96) were associated with lower risk of depression. Associations were robust to sensitivity analyses, including restricting to tobacco-naive participants and varying temporal assumptions to reduce potential for reverse causation. Young adults who consistently avoid or discontinue vaping may be protected from depressive symptom occurrence.

Identifying Patterns of Tobacco Use and Associated Cardiovascular Disease Risk Through Machine Learning Analysis of Urine Biomarkers

BACKGROUND

Tobacco use remains a leading cause of disability-adjusted life years lost in the United States. Cardiovascular harm varies by tobacco product type and usage patterns, yet reliable methods for assessing exposure and harm across different products, especially novel tobacco products, are limited.

OBJECTIVES

The authors aimed to identify distinct biomarker exposure patterns associated with different tobacco products using cluster analysis and validate this approach through longitudinal analysis of cardiovascular disease risk.

METHODS

Using the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health data set, we performed cluster analysis and geometric mean modeling of tobacco-related biomarkers, followed by a longitudinal retrospective cohort study with Cox proportional hazard modeling used to examine associations between clusters and a primary composite outcome of heart failure, myocardial infarction, or stroke.

RESULTS

Examining 6,463 individuals, we identified 5 clusters: never users (cluster 1), predominant e-cigarette users (cluster 4), cigarette/dual users (cluster 2), and mixed tobacco users (clusters 3 and 5). All clusters showed elevated biomarkers of oxidative stress and inflammation compared to cluster 1, with clusters 2 and 3 showing the highest levels. Multivariable analysis revealed significantly higher cardiovascular disease risk in cluster 2 vs cluster 1 (HR: 2.24; 95% CI: 1.17-4.30), while other clusters showed elevated but nonsignificant risks.

CONCLUSIONS

Our categorization of exposure through cluster analysis provides a potential tool for evaluating the use of emerging tobacco products and establishing a connection between novel exposures and cardiovascular risk. This approach may contribute to the validation of a valuable tool for assessing the risk associated with the use of different tobacco products.