Dietary metabolic signatures and cardiometabolic risk

AIMS

Observational studies of diet in cardiometabolic-cardiovascular disease (CM-CVD) focus on self-reported consumption of food or dietary pattern, with limited information on individual metabolic responses to dietary intake linked to CM-CVD. Here, machine learning approaches were used to identify individual metabolic patterns related to diet and relation to long-term CM-CVD in early adulthood.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In 2259 White and Black adults (age 32.1 ± 3.6 years, 45% women, 44% Black) in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study, multivariate models were employed to identify metabolite signatures of food group and composite dietary intake across 17 food groups, 2 nutrient groups, and healthy eating index-2015 (HEI2015) diet quality score. A broad array of metabolites associated with diet were uncovered, reflecting food-related components/catabolites (e.g. fish and long-chain unsaturated triacylglycerols), interactions with host features (microbiome), or pathways broadly implicated in CM-CVD (e.g. ceramide/sphingomyelin lipid metabolism). To integrate diet with metabolism, penalized machine learning models were used to define a metabolite signature linked to a putative CM-CVD-adverse diet (e.g. high in red/processed meat, refined grains), which was subsequently associated with long-term diabetes and CVD risk numerically more strongly than HEI2015 in CARDIA [e.g. diabetes: standardized hazard ratio (HR): 1.62, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32-1.97, P < 0.0001; CVD: HR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.12-2.14, P = 0.008], with associations replicated for diabetes (P < 0.0001) in the Framingham Heart Study.

CONCLUSION

Metabolic signatures of diet are associated with long-term CM-CVD independent of lifestyle and traditional risk factors. Metabolomics improves precision to identify adverse consequences and pathways of diet-related CM-CVD.

Cardiac Structure and Function Phenogroups and Risk of Incident Heart Failure (from the Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

Indices of cardiac structure and function, such as left ventricular (LV) mass and ejection fraction, have been associated with risk of incident heart failure (HF), but the clinical relevance of data-driven grouping of a comprehensive set of cardiac parameters is unclear. In Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants, latent class analysis was applied in the sample stratified by gender to define phenogroups on the basis of cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging parameters of right ventricular and LV structure and function at baseline. Cox proportional hazard models in gender-stratified analyses were used to assess the association between phenogroup membership and risk of HF subtypes adjusting for potential confounders. In the 4,204 participants (mean age 61 ± 10 years, 53% women), the mean follow-up time was 14 ± 4 years for men and 15 ± 4 years for women. For both genders, 4 distinct phenogroups were identified: (1) ideal cardiac mechanics; (2) higher output/hypertrophied LV; (3) impaired ejection fraction/dilated LV; and (4) higher output/hyperdynamic (LV). Men in phenogroups 4 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.60 to 5.31, p = 0.0005), 3 (HR 3.52, 95% CI 1.90 to 6.53, p <0.0001), and 2 (HR 3.49, 95% CI 1.94 to 6.28, p <0.0001) had higher rates of incident HF than did men in phenogroup 1, in fully adjusted models. No significant associations were found between phenogroup membership and incident HF in women. In conclusion, phenogroup membership based on cardiac structure and function in men was significantly associated with incident HF. Integration of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging variables may help identify differential risk for HF in men.

Antenatal Programming of Hypertension: Paradigms, Paradoxes, and How We Move Forward

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Synthesize the clinical, epidemiological, and preclinical evidence for antenatal programming of hypertension and critically appraise paradigms and paradoxes to improve translation.

RECENT FINDINGS

Clinical and epidemiological studies persistently demonstrate that antenatal factors contribute to programmed hypertension under the developmental origins of health and disease framework, including lower birth weight, preterm birth, and fetal growth restriction. Preclinical mechanisms include preeclampsia, maternal diabetes, maternal undernutrition, and antenatal corticosteroid exposure. However, clinical and epidemiological studies to date have largely failed to adequately identify, discuss, and mitigate many sources and types of bias in part due to heterogeneous study designs and incomplete adherence to scientific rigor. These limitations have led to incomplete and biased paradigms as well as persistent paradoxes that have significantly limited translation into clinical and population health interventions. Improved understanding of these paradigms and paradoxes will allow us to substantially move the field forward.

Within-person decline in pregnancy smoking is observable prior to pregnancy awareness: Evidence across two independent observational cohorts

Decreased consumption of nicotine and other drugs during pregnancy appears to be a cross-species phenomenon from which mechanism(s) capable of interrupting addictive processes could be elucidated. Whether pregnancy influences smoking behaviour independent of women's knowledge of the pregnancy, however, has not been considered. Using repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA), we estimated within-person change in mean cigarettes/day smoked across the estimated date of conception but prior to individually reported dates of pregnancy recognition using longitudinal smoking data from two independent observational cohorts, the Growing Up Healthy (GUH, n = 271) and Midwest Infant Development Studies (MIDS, n = 145). Participants smoked an average of half a pack/day in the month immediately before conception (M (SD) = 12(8.1) and 9.5(6.7) cigarettes/day in GUH and MIDS, respectively). We observed within-person declines in smoking after conception, both before (MGUH  = -0.9; 95% CI -1.6, -0.2; p = 0.01; MMIDS  = -1.1; 95% CI -1.9, -0.3; p = 0.01) and after (MGUH  = -4.8; 95% CI -5.5, -4.1; p < 0.001; MMIDS  = -3.3; 95% CI -4.4, -2.5; p < 0.001) women were aware of having conceived, even when women who had quit and women who were planning to conceive were excluded from analyses. Pregnancy may interrupt smoking-related processes via mechanisms not previously considered. Plausible candidates and directions for future research are discussed.

Risk Factors for Incident Coronary Artery Calcium in Younger (Age 32 to 45 Years) Versus Intermediate (46 to 64 Years) Versus Older (65 to 84 Years) Persons

The prognostic value of traditional atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk factors may decrease with age. We sought to determine whether the association between traditional ASCVD risk factors and incident coronary artery calcium (CAC) differs for younger versus older persons. We included 5,108 participants with baseline CAC = 0. Repeat CAC scoring occurred over 3 to 11 years of follow-up. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression assessed the association between traditional risk factors and incident CAC in young (32 to 45 years), middle-aged (46 to 64 years), and older adults (65 to 84 years). A total of 61% of the participants were women and 37% were Black. The proportion with incident CAC ranged from 22% among young adults, 34% for middle-aged adults, and 45% for older adults. In young adults, traditional risk factors were significantly associated with incident CAC except for diastolic blood pressure and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, whereas only total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ≥3.5 (p = 0.04) was significantly associated with incident CAC in older persons. Non-HDL cholesterol (p = 0.02) was more strongly associated with incident CAC in young (hazard ratio [HR] 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09 to 1.31) and middle aged (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.23) compared to older adults (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.23). When added to demographics, traditional risk factors provided a greater C-statistic improvement for incident CAC prediction in young (0.752, +0.070, p <0.001) versus middle-aged (0.645, +0.054, p <0.001) and older adults (0.597,+0.025, p = 0.08). In conclusion, traditional risk factors more strongly predict incident CAC in young compared to older adults, underlining the importance of primordial prevention through middle age while identifying the challenges of ASCVD risk assessment in older persons.

Status of Cardiovascular Health in US Adults and Children Using the American Heart Association's New "Life's Essential 8" Metrics: Prevalence Estimates From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 2013 Through 2018

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association recently published an updated algorithm for quantifying cardiovascular health (CVH)-the Life's Essential 8 score. We quantified US levels of CVH using the new score.

METHODS

We included individuals ages 2 through 79 years (not pregnant or institutionalized) who were free of cardiovascular disease from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys in 2013 through 2018. For all participants, we calculated the overall CVH score (range, 0 [lowest] to 100 [highest]), as well as the score for each component of diet, physical activity, nicotine exposure, sleep duration, body mass index, blood lipids, blood glucose, and blood pressure, using published American Heart Association definitions. Sample weights and design were incorporated in calculating prevalence estimates and standard errors using standard survey procedures. CVH scores were assessed across strata of age, sex, race and ethnicity, family income, and depression.

RESULTS

There were 23 409 participants, representing 201 728 000 adults and 74 435 000 children. The overall mean CVH score was 64.7 (95% CI, 63.9-65.6) among adults using all 8 metrics and 65.5 (95% CI, 64.4-66.6) for the 3 metrics available (diet, physical activity, and body mass index) among children and adolescents ages 2 through 19 years. For adults, there were significant differences in mean overall CVH scores by sex (women, 67.0; men, 62.5), age (range of mean values, 62.2-68.7), and racial and ethnic group (range, 59.7-68.5). Mean scores were lowest for diet, physical activity, and body mass index metrics. There were large differences in mean scores across demographic groups for diet (range, 23.8-47.7), nicotine exposure (range, 63.1-85.0), blood glucose (range, 65.7-88.1), and blood pressure (range, 49.5-84.0). In children, diet scores were low (mean 40.6) and were progressively lower in higher age groups (from 61.1 at ages 2 through 5 to 28.5 at ages 12 through 19); large differences were also noted in mean physical activity (range, 63.1-88.3) and body mass index (range, 74.4-89.4) scores by sociodemographic group.

CONCLUSIONS

The new Life's Essential 8 score helps identify large group and individual differences in CVH. Overall CVH in the US population remains well below optimal levels and there are both broad and targeted opportunities to monitor, preserve, and improve CVH across the life course in individuals and the population.

PDAY risk score predicts cardiovascular events in young adults: the CARDIA study

AIMS

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk prediction equations apply to older adults. For this study, the Pathobiologic Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth (PDAY) risk score, based on post-mortem measurements of atherosclerosis in 15-34-year olds dying accidentally, was used to predict ASCVD events, specifically myocardial infarction and revascularization, in middle age, from risk measured at ≤40 years of age.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study (CARDIA) collected longitudinal cardiovascular risk data, coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores, and ASCVD data beginning at age 18 and 30 years with 30-year follow-up. Predictive accuracy for ASCVD of the PDAY risk score, calculated at baseline (mean age 24) and at all six CARDIA examinations up until year 15, was examined. We also examined whether the presence of CAC improved model discrimination. The cohort for this study comprised 5004 Black and White men and women, at baseline and 3558 with data at year 15. Each standard deviation increase in PDAY score, at each examination, was significantly associated with future ASCVD. Hazard ratios (per standard deviation) increased from 1.74 to 2.04 from year 0 to year 15. C-statistics ranged from 0.771 to 0.794. Coronary artery calcium measurement at age 33-45 years improved risk prediction only if the score was 0. Cumulative risk exposure over the first 15 years of the CARDIA study also had high-predictive value (c-statistic 0.798, 95% confidence interval 0.762-0.835).

CONCLUSION

The PDAY risk score may be used in young adults, prior to age 40 years to predict ASCVD events.

Life's Essential 8: Updating and Enhancing the American Heart Association's Construct of Cardiovascular Health: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association

In 2010, the American Heart Association defined a novel construct of cardiovascular health to promote a paradigm shift from a focus solely on disease treatment to one inclusive of positive health promotion and preservation across the life course in populations and individuals. Extensive subsequent evidence has provided insights into strengths and limitations of the original approach to defining and quantifying cardiovascular health. In response, the American Heart Association convened a writing group to recommend enhancements and updates. The definition and quantification of each of the original metrics (Life's Simple 7) were evaluated for responsiveness to interindividual variation and intraindividual change. New metrics were considered, and the age spectrum was expanded to include the entire life course. The foundational contexts of social determinants of health and psychological health were addressed as crucial factors in optimizing and preserving cardiovascular health. This presidential advisory introduces an enhanced approach to assessing cardiovascular health: Life's Essential 8. The components of Life's Essential 8 include diet (updated), physical activity, nicotine exposure (updated), sleep health (new), body mass index, blood lipids (updated), blood glucose (updated), and blood pressure. Each metric has a new scoring algorithm ranging from 0 to 100 points, allowing generation of a new composite cardiovascular health score (the unweighted average of all components) that also varies from 0 to 100 points. Methods for implementing cardiovascular health assessment and longitudinal monitoring are discussed, as are potential data sources and tools to promote widespread adoption in policy, public health, clinical, institutional, and community settings.

Associations of Clinical and Social Risk Factors With Racial Differences in Premature Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND

Racial differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD) are likely related to differences in clinical and social factors. The relative contributions of these factors to Black-White differences in premature CVD have not been investigated.

METHODS

In Black and White adults aged 18 to 30 years at baseline in the CARDIA study (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults), the associations of clinical, lifestyle, depression, socioeconomic, and neighborhood factors across young adulthood with racial differences in incident premature CVD were evaluated in sex-stratified, multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models using multiply imputed data assuming missing at random. Percent reduction in the β estimate (log-hazard ratio [HR]) for race quantified the contribution of each factor group to racial differences in incident CVD.

RESULTS

Among 2785 Black and 2327 White participants followed for a median 33.9 years (25th-75th percentile, 33.7-34.0), Black (versus White) adults had a higher risk of incident premature CVD (Black women: HR, 2.44 [95% CI, 1.71-3.49], Black men: HR, 1.59 [1.20-2.10] adjusted for age and center). Racial differences were not statistically significant after full adjustment (Black women: HR, 0.91 [0.55-1.52], Black men: HR 1.02 [0.70-1.49]). In women, the largest magnitude percent reduction in the β estimate for race occurred with adjustment for clinical (87%), neighborhood (32%), and socioeconomic (23%) factors. In men, the largest magnitude percent reduction in the β estimate for race occurred with an adjustment for clinical (64%), socioeconomic (50%), and lifestyle (34%) factors.

CONCLUSIONS

In CARDIA, the significantly higher risk for premature CVD in Black versus White adults was statistically explained by adjustment for antecedent multilevel factors. The largest contributions to racial differences were from clinical and neighborhood factors in women, and clinical and socioeconomic factors in men.

A novel chronic in vivo oral cadmium exposure-washout mouse model for studying cadmium toxicity and complex diabetogenic effects

Type II diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is characterized by insulin resistance, β-cell dysfunction and hyperglycemia. In addition to well known risk factors such as lifestyle and genetic risk score, accumulation of environmental toxicants in organs relevant to glucose metabolism is increasingly recognized as additional risk factors for T2DM. Here, we describe the development of an in vivo oral cadmium (Cd) exposure model. It was shown that oral Cd exposure in drinking water followed by washout and high fat diet (HFD) in C57BL/6N mice results in islet Cd bioaccumulation comparable to that found in native human islets while mitigating the anorexic effects of Cd to achieve the same weight gain required to induce insulin resistance as in Cd naïve control mice. Inter individual variation in plasma glucose and insulin levels as well as islet Cd bioaccumulation was observed in both female and male mice. Regression analysis showed an inverse correlation between islet Cd level and plasma insulin following a glucose challenge in males but not in females. This finding highlights the need to account for inter individual target tissue Cd concentrations when interpreting results from in vivo Cd exposure models. No effect of Cd on insulin secretion was observed in islets ex vivo, highlighting differences between in vivo and ex vivo cadmium exposure models. In summary, our oral in vivo Cd exposure-washout with HFD model resulted in islet Cd bioaccumulation that is relevant in the context of environmental cadmium exposure in humans. Here, we showed that islet Cd bioaccumulation is associated with complex cadmium-mediated changes in glucose clearance and β-cell function. The model described here will serve as a useful tool to further examine the relationship between Cd exposure, islet Cd bioaccumulation, dysglycemia and their underlying mechanisms.

Relative contributions of six lifestyle- and health-related exposures to epigenetic aging: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study

Background

DNA methylation-based GrimAge acceleration (GrimAA) is associated with a wide range of age-related health outcomes including cardiovascular disease. Since DNA methylation is modifiable by external and behavioral exposures, it is important to identify which of these exposures may have the strongest contributions to differences in GrimAA, to help guide potential intervention strategies. Here, we assessed the relative contributions of lifestyle- and health-related components, as well as their collective association, to GrimAA.

Results

We included 744 participants (391 men and 353 women) from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study with blood DNA methylation information at CARDIA Exam Year (Y) 20 (2005–2006, mean age 45.9 years). Six cumulative exposures by Y20 were included in the analysis: total packs of cigarettes, total alcohol consumption, education years, healthy diet score, sleep hours, and physical activity. We used quantile-based g-computation (QGC) and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) methods to assess the relative contribution of each exposure to a single overall association with GrimAA. We also assessed the collective association of the six components combined with GrimAA. Smoking showed the greatest positive contribution to GrimAA, accounting for 83.5% of overall positive associations of the six exposures with GrimAA (QGC weight = 0.835). The posterior inclusion probability (PIP) of smoking also achieved the highest score of 1.0 from BKMR analysis. Healthy diet and education years showed inverse contributions to GrimAA. We observed a U-shaped pattern in the contribution of alcohol consumption to GrimAA. While smoking was the greatest contributor across sex and race subgroups, the relative contributions of other components varied by subgroups.

Conclusions

Smoking, alcohol consumption, and education showed the highest contributions to GrimAA in our study. Higher amounts of smoking and alcohol consumption were likely to contribute to greater GrimAA, whereas achieved education was likely to contribute to lower GrimAA. Identifying pertinent lifestyle- and health-related exposures in a context of collective components can provide direction for intervention strategies and suggests which components should be the primary focus for promoting younger GrimAA.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13148-022-01304-9.

Association of Vascular Risk Scores and Cognitive Performance in a Diverse Cohort: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Vascular risk scores are associated with incident dementia. Information regarding their association with cognitive performance and decline in racially/ethnically diverse cohorts is lacking.

METHOD

In 4 392 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants (aged 60.1 ± 9.4 years; 53% women; 41% White, 11% Chinese American, 26% African American, 21% Hispanic), we compared associations of Exam 1 (2000-2002) Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia (CAIDE), Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP), and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease pooled cohort equation (ASCVD-PCE) risk scores with Exam 5 (2010-2012) Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument (CASI), Digit Symbol Coding (DSC), and Digit Span (DS) cognitive test performance using multivariable linear regression, and examined racial/ethnic interactions. In 1 838 participants with repeat CASI data at Exam 6 (2016-2018), we related risk scores to odds of a 1-SD decline in CASI performance using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

SD increments in each risk score were associated with worse cognitive performance. CAIDE had stronger associations with CASI performance than the FSRP and ASCVD-PCE, but associations of ASCVD-PCE with the DSC and DS were similar to CAIDE (difference in β [95% CI] = -0.57 [-1.48, 0.34] and -0.21 [-0.43, 0.01], respectively). Race/ethnicity modified associations. For example, associations between CAIDE and CASI were greater in African Americans and Hispanics than in Whites (difference in β = 0.69 [0.02, 1.36] and 1.67 [0.95, 2.39], respectively). Risk scores were comparably associated with decline in CASI performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Antecedent vascular risk scores are associated with cognitive performance and decline in the 4 most common U.S. racial/ethnic groups, but associations differ among risk scores and by race/ethnicity.

Temporal Trends in Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes in Birthing Individuals Aged 15 to 44 Years in the United States, 2007 to 2019

Background

Adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs) (hypertensive disorders of pregnancy [HDP], preterm delivery [PTD], or low birth weight [LBW]) are associated adverse maternal and offspring cardiovascular outcomes. Therefore, we sought to describe nationwide temporal trends in the burden of each APO (HDP, PTD, LBW) from 2007 to 2019 to inform strategies to optimize maternal and offspring health outcomes.

Methods and Results

We performed a serial cross‐sectional analysis of APO subtypes (HDP, PTD, LBW) from 2007 to 2019. We included maternal data from all live births that occurred in the United States using the National Center for Health Statistics Natality Files. We quantified age‐standardized and age‐specific rates of APOs per 1000 live births and their respective mean annual percentage change. All analyses were stratified by self‐report of maternal race and ethnicity. Among 51 685 525 live births included, 15% were to non‐Hispanic Black individuals, 24% Hispanic individuals, and 6% Asian individuals. Between 2007 and 2019, age standardized HDP rates approximately doubled, from 38.4 (38.2–38.6) to 77.8 (77.5–78.1) per 1000 live births. A significant inflection point was observed in 2014, with an acceleration in the rate of increase of HDP from 2007 to 2014 (+4.1% per year [3.6–4.7]) to 2014 to 2019 (+9.1% per year [8.1–10.1]). Rates of PTD and LBW increased significantly when co‐occurring in the same pregnancy with HDP. Absolute rates of APOs were higher in non‐Hispanic Black individuals and in older age groups. However, similar relative increases were seen across all age,racial and ethnic groups.

Conclusions

In aggregate, APOs now complicate nearly 1 in 5 live births. Incidence of HDP has increased significantly between 2007 and 2019 and contributed to the reversal of favorable trends in PTD and LBW. Similar patterns were observed in all age groups, suggesting that increasing maternal age at pregnancy does not account for these trends. Black–White disparities persisted throughout the study period.

Age, Sex, Race/Ethnicity, and Income Patterns in Ideal Cardiovascular Health Among Adolescents and Adults in the U.S

INTRODUCTION

Ideal cardiovascular health is present in <50% of children and <1% of adults, yet its prevalence from adolescence through adulthood has not been fully evaluated. This study characterizes the association of age with ideal cardiovascular health and compares these associations across sex, race/ethnicity, and SES subgroups.

METHODS

This study, conducted in 2020, analyzed adolescents and adults aged 12-79 years from the cross-sectional National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2005-2016 (N=38,706). Polynomial models were used to model the association of age with ideal cardiovascular health, defined using the American Heart Association's Life's Simple 7 criteria (scales 0-14, with higher values indicating better cardiovascular health).

RESULTS

Mean cardiovascular health was lower with increasing age, starting in early adolescence and dropping to a nadir by age 60 years before stabilizing. At age 20 years, only 45% of adults had ideal cardiovascular health (≥5 ideal cardiovascular health metrics), and >50% of adults had poor cardiovascular health (≤2 ideal cardiovascular health metrics) at age 53 years. Women had higher mean cardiovascular health than men in early life but lower mean cardiovascular health from age 60 years onward. Mean cardiovascular health scores were highest for non-Hispanic White and higher-income adults and lowest for non-Hispanic Black and low-income adults across all ages. Mean cardiovascular health scores fell from intermediate to poor levels approximately 30 years earlier for non-Hispanic Black than for non-Hispanic White adults and approximately 35 years earlier for low-income adults than in higher-income adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiovascular health scores are lower with increasing age from early adolescence through adulthood. Race/ethnicity and income disparities in cardiovascular health are observed at young ages and are more profound at older ages.

Circulating metabolite profile in young adulthood identifies long-term diabetes susceptibility: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this work was to define metabolic correlates and pathways of diabetes pathogenesis in young adults during a subclinical latent phase of diabetes development.

METHODS

We studied 2083 young adults of Black and White ethnicity in the prospective observational cohort Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study (mean ± SD age 32.1 ± 3.6 years; 43.9% women; 42.7% Black; mean ± SD BMI 25.6 ± 4.9 kg/m2) and 1797 Framingham Heart Study (FHS) participants (mean ± SD age 54.7 ± 9.7 years; 52.1% women; mean ± SD BMI 27.4 ± 4.8 kg/m2), examining the association of comprehensive metabolite profiles with endophenotypes of diabetes susceptibility (adipose and muscle tissue phenotypes and systemic inflammation). Statistical learning techniques and Cox regression were used to identify metabolite signatures of incident diabetes over a median of nearly two decades of follow-up across both cohorts.

RESULTS

We identified known and novel metabolites associated with endophenotypes that delineate the complex pathophysiological architecture of diabetes, spanning mechanisms of muscle insulin resistance, inflammatory lipid signalling and beta cell metabolism (e.g. bioactive lipids, amino acids and microbe- and diet-derived metabolites). Integrating endophenotypes of diabetes susceptibility with the metabolome generated two multi-parametric metabolite scores, one of which (a proinflammatory adiposity score) was associated with incident diabetes across the life course in participants from both the CARDIA study (young adults; HR in a fully adjusted model 2.10 [95% CI 1.72, 2.55], p<0.0001) and FHS (middle-aged and older adults; HR 1.33 [95% CI 1.14, 1.56], p=0.0004). A metabolite score based on the outcome of diabetes was strongly related to diabetes in CARDIA study participants (fully adjusted HR 3.41 [95% CI 2.85, 4.07], p<0.0001) but not in the older FHS population (HR 1.15 [95% CI 0.99, 1.33], p=0.07).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Selected metabolic abnormalities in young adulthood identify individuals with heightened diabetes risk independent of race, sex and traditional diabetes risk factors. These signatures replicate across the life course.

Retinal Microvascular Caliber and Incident Depressive Symptoms: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Cerebral microvascular dysfunction may contribute to depression via disruption of brain structures involved in mood regulation, but evidence is limited. The retina allows for visualization of a microvascular bed that shares similarities with the cerebral microvasculature. We investigated the associations between baseline retinal arteriolar and venular calibers (central retinal arteriolar equivalent (CRAE) and central retinal venular equivalent (CRVE), respectively) and incident depressive symptoms in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). We used longitudinal data on 4,366 participants (mean age = 63.2 years; 48.5% women, 28.4% Black) without baseline depressive symptoms. Depressive symptoms, defined as Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale score ≥16 and/or use of antidepressant medication, were determined between 2002 and 2004 (baseline; MESA visit 2) and at 3 follow-up examinations conducted every 1.5–2 years thereafter. Fundus photography was performed at baseline. After a mean follow-up period of 6.1 years, 21.9% (n = 958) had incident depressive symptoms. After adjustment for sociodemographic, lifestyle, and cardiovascular factors, a 1–standard-deviation larger baseline CRVE was associated with a higher risk of depressive symptoms (hazard ratio = 1.10, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 1.17), and a 1–standard-deviation larger baseline CRAE was not statistically significantly associated with incident depressive symptoms (hazard ratio = 1.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.97, 1.11). In this study, larger baseline CRVE, but not CRAE, was associated with a higher incidence of depressive symptoms.

Risk Prediction Models for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: The CRIC Study

BACKGROUND

Individuals with CKD may be at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, there are no ASCVD risk prediction models developed in CKD populations to inform clinical care and prevention.

METHODS

We developed and validated 10-year ASCVD risk prediction models in patients with CKD that included participants without self-reported cardiovascular disease from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study. ASCVD was defined as the first occurrence of adjudicated fatal and nonfatal stroke or myocardial infarction. Our models used clinically available variables and novel biomarkers. Model performance was evaluated based on discrimination, calibration, and net reclassification improvement.

RESULTS

Of 2604 participants (mean age 55.8 years; 52.0% male) included in the analyses, 252 had incident ASCVD within 10 years of baseline. Compared with the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equations (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]=0.730), a model with coefficients estimated within the CRIC sample had higher discrimination (P=0.03), achieving an AUC of 0.736 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.649 to 0.826). The CRIC model developed using clinically available variables had an AUC of 0.760 (95% CI, 0.678 to 0.851). The CRIC biomarker-enriched model had an AUC of 0.771 (95% CI, 0.674 to 0.853), which was significantly higher than the clinical model (P=0.001). Both the clinical and biomarker-enriched models were well-calibrated and improved reclassification of nonevents compared with the pooled cohort equations (6.6%; 95% CI, 3.7% to 9.6% and 10.0%; 95% CI, 6.8% to 13.3%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The 10-year ASCVD risk prediction models developed in patients with CKD, including novel kidney and cardiac biomarkers, performed better than equations developed for the general population using only traditional risk factors.

Association of Body Mass Index in Midlife With Morbidity Burden in Older Adulthood and Longevity

IMPORTANCE

Abundant evidence links obesity with adverse health consequences. However, controversies persist regarding whether overweight status compared with normal body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) is associated with longer survival and whether this occurs at the expense of greater long-term morbidity and health care expenditures.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association of BMI in midlife with morbidity burden, longevity, and health care expenditures in adults 65 years and older.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Prospective cohort study at the Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry, with baseline in-person examination between November 1967 and January 1973 linked with Medicare follow-up between January 1985 and December 2015. Participants included 29 621 adults who were at least age 65 years in follow-up and enrolled in Medicare. Data were analyzed from January 2020 to December 2021.

EXPOSURES

Standard BMI categories.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

(1) Morbidity burden at 65 years and older assessed with the Gagne combined comorbidity score (ranging from -2 to 26, with higher score associated with higher mortality), which is a well-validated index based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes for use in administrative data sets; (2) longevity (age at death); and (3) health care costs based on Medicare linkage in older adulthood (aged ≥65 years).

RESULTS

Among 29 621 participants, mean (SD) age was 40 (12) years, 57.1% were men, and 9.1% were Black; 46.0% had normal BMI, 39.6% were overweight, and 11.9% had classes I and II obesity at baseline. Higher cumulative morbidity burden in older adulthood was observed among those who were overweight (7.22 morbidity-years) and those with classes I and II obesity (9.80) compared with those with a normal BMI (6.10) in midlife (P < .001). Mean age at death was similar between those who were overweight (82.1 years [95% CI, 81.9-82.2 years]) and those who had normal BMI (82.3 years [95% CI, 82.1-82.5 years]) but shorter in those who with classes I and II obesity (80.8 years [95% CI, 80.5-81.1 years]). The proportion (SE) of life-years lived in older adulthood with Gagne score of at least 1 was 0.38% (0.00%) in those with a normal BMI, 0.41% (0.00%) in those with overweight, and 0.43% (0.01%) in those with classes I and II obesity. Cumulative median per-person health care costs in older adulthood were significantly higher among overweight participants ($12 390 [95% CI, $10 427 to $14 354]) and those with classes I and II obesity ($23 396 [95% CI, $18 474 to $28 319]) participants compared with those with a normal BMI (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study, overweight in midlife, compared with normal BMI, was associated with higher cumulative burden of morbidity and greater proportion of life lived with morbidity in the context of similar longevity. These findings translated to higher total health care expenditures in older adulthood for those who were overweight in midlife.

Association between county-level risk groups and COVID-19 outcomes in the United States: a socioecological study

BACKGROUND

Geographic heterogeneity in COVID-19 outcomes in the United States is well-documented and has been linked with factors at the county level, including sociodemographic and health factors. Whether an integrated measure of place-based risk can classify counties at high risk for COVID-19 outcomes is not known.

METHODS

We conducted an ecological nationwide analysis of 2,701 US counties from 1/21/20 to 2/17/21. County-level characteristics across multiple domains, including demographic, socioeconomic, healthcare access, physical environment, and health factor prevalence were harmonized and linked from a variety of sources. We performed latent class analysis to identify distinct groups of counties based on multiple sociodemographic, health, and environmental domains and examined the association with COVID-19 cases and deaths per 100,000 population.

RESULTS

Analysis of 25.9 million COVID-19 cases and 481,238 COVID-19 deaths revealed large between-county differences with widespread geographic dispersion, with the gap in cumulative cases and death rates between counties in the 90th and 10th percentile of 6,581 and 291 per 100,000, respectively. Counties from rural areas tended to cluster together compared with urban areas and were further stratified by social determinants of health factors that reflected high and low social vulnerability. Highest rates of cumulative COVID-19 cases (9,557 [2,520]) and deaths (210 [97]) per 100,000 occurred in the cluster comprised of rural disadvantaged counties.

CONCLUSIONS

County-level COVID-19 cases and deaths had substantial disparities with heterogeneous geographic spread across the US. The approach to county-level risk characterization used in this study has the potential to provide novel insights into communicable disease patterns and disparities at the local level.

Race/Ethnicity, Spirometry Reference Equations and Prediction of Incident Clinical Events: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Lung Study

RATIONALE

Normal values for forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) are currently calculated using cross-sectional reference equations that include terms for race/ethnicity, an approach that may reinforce disparities and is of unclear clinical benefit.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether race/ethnic-based spirometry reference equations improve the prediction of incident chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD) events and mortality compared to race/ethnic-neutral equations.

METHODS

The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Lung Study, a population-based, prospective cohort study of White, Black, Hispanic, and Asian adults, performed standardized spirometry in 2004-06. Predicted values for spirometry were calculated using race/ethnic-based equations following guidelines and, alternatively, race/ethnic-neutral equations without terms for race/ethnicity. Participants were followed for events through 2019.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The mean age of 3,344 participants was 65 years and self-reported race/ethnicity was 36% White, 25% Black, 23% Hispanic, and 17% Asian. There were 181 incident CLRD-related events and 547 deaths over a median of 11.6 years. There was no evidence that percent-predicted FEV1 or FVC calculated by race/ethnic-based equations improved the prediction of CLRD-related events compared to that calculated by race/ethnic-neutral equations (difference in C-statistics -0.005, 95% CI -0.013, 0.003, and -0.008, 95% CI -0.016, -0.0006, respectively). Findings were similar for mortality (difference in C-statistics -0.002, 95% CI -0.008, 0.003, and -0.004, 95% CI -0.009, 0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

There was no evidence that race/ethnic-based spirometry reference equations improved the prediction of clinical events compared to race/ethnic-neutral equations. The inclusion of race/ethnicity in spirometry reference equations should be reconsidered.

Association between diet quality and incident cardiovascular disease stratified by body mass index

Objective

Diet quality is a significant contributor to cardiovascular disease (CVD) development given its substantial influence on important downstream CVD mediators such as weight. However, it is unclear if there are additional pathways between diet quality and incident CVD independent of weight. We sought to determine if higher diet quality was associated with lower CVD risk stratified by BMI categories.

Methods

Prospective cohort data from the Lifetime Risk Pooling Project (LRPP) was analyzed. Diet data from 6 US cohorts were harmonized. The alternative Healthy Eating Index-2010 (aHEI-2010) score was calculated for each participant. Within each cohort, participants were divided into aHEI-2010 quintiles. The primary outcome of interest was composite incident CVD event including coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, and CVD death. Cox regression analysis was performed separately for three BMI strata: 18.5–24.9, 25–29.9, and ≥ 30 kg/m².

Results

A total of 30,219 participants were included. During a median follow-up of 16.2 years, there were a total of 7,021 CVD events. An inverse association between aHEI-2010 score and incident CVD was identified among participants who were normal weight (comparing highest quintile with lowest quintile: adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] 0.57 [0.50 – 0.66]) and among participants with overweight (0.69 [0.61 – 0.77]). aHEI-2010 score was not associated with CVD among participants with obesity (0.97 [0.84 – 1.13]).

Conclusions

Among adults in the United States, higher diet quality as measured by aHEI-2010 was significantly associated with lower risk of incident CVD among individuals with normal weight and overweight but not obesity.

Cigarette Smoking and Competing Risks for Fatal and Nonfatal Cardiovascular Disease Subtypes Across the Life Course

Background

Cigarette smoking is significantly associated with premature death related and not related to cardiovascular disease (CVD). Whether risk associated with smoking is similar across CVD subtypes and how this translates into years of life lost is not known.

Methods and Results

We pooled and harmonized individual‐level data from 9 population‐based cohorts in the United States. All participants were free of clinical CVD at baseline with available data on current smoking status, covariates, and CVD outcomes. We examined the association between smoking status and total CVD and CVD subtypes, including fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease, stroke, congestive heart failure, and other CVD deaths. We performed (1) modified Kaplan–Meier analysis to estimate long‐term risks, (2) adjusted competing Cox models to estimate joint cumulative risks for CVD or noncardiovascular death, and (3) Irwin’s restricted mean to estimate years lived free from and with CVD. Of 106 165 adults, 50.4% were women. Overall long‐term risks for CVD events were 46.0% (95% CI, 44.7–47.3) and 34.7% (95% CI, 33.3–36.0) in middle‐aged men and women, respectively. In middle‐aged men who reported smoking compared with those who did not smoke, competing hazard ratios (HRs) were higher for the first presentation being a fatal CVD event (HR, 1.79 [95% CI, 1.68–1.92]), with a similar pattern among women (HR,1.82 [95% CI, 1.68–1.98]). Smoking was associated with earlier CVD onset by 5.1 and 3.8 years in men and women. Similar patterns were observed in younger and older adults.

Conclusions

Current smoking was associated with a fatal event as the first manifestation of clinical CVD.