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Hudson C, Spry E, Borschmann R, Becker D, Moran P, Olsson C, Coffey C, Romaniuk H, Bayer JK, Patton GC. Preconception personality disorder and antenatal maternal mental health: A population-based cohort study. J Affect Disord 2017; 209:169-176. [PMID: 27923193 DOI: 10.1016/j.jad.2016.11.022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2016] [Revised: 09/26/2016] [Accepted: 11/15/2016] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Prior anxiety and depression have been identified as risk factors for maternal perinatal mental health problems, but other preconception mental disorders have not been prospectively examined. This study investigated prospectively whether women with preconception personality disorder have increased rates of antenatal anxiety and/or depressive symptoms. METHODS 244 women in a population cohort were assessed for personality disorder at age 24 using the Standardised Assessment of Personality. Five to twelve years later, women were screened with the Clinical Interview Schedule, Revised Anxiety Subscale and the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale during the third trimester of 328 pregnancies. RESULTS Preconception personality disorder was associated with a three-fold increase in the odds of antenatal anxiety symptoms, which remained with adjustment for preconception background factors and preconception common mental disorder (adjusted OR 2.84, 95% CI 1.31-6.15). Preconception personality disorder was associated with doubled odds of antenatal depressive symptoms, however this was attenuated with adjustment for preconception background factors and preconception common mental disorder (adjusted OR 1.98, 95% CI 0.81-4.81). LIMITATIONS Our findings are restricted to pregnant women aged 29-35 years. Anxiety and depression may have been under-identified because they were assessed at a single antenatal time point. Residual confounding of the associations by preconception common mental disorder at other time points may have occurred. CONCLUSIONS Women with personality disorder are at heightened risk of anxiety symptoms in pregnancy, over and above risks associated with prior common mental disorder. This raises a possibility that pregnancy brings particular emotional challenges for women with personality disorders.
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Kosola SK, Mundy LK, Sawyer SM, Canterford L, van der Windt DA, Dunn KM, Patton GC. Pain and learning in Australian primary school students. Eur J Public Health 2016. [DOI: 10.1093/eurpub/ckw165.039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
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Lim SS, Allen K, Bhutta ZA, Dandona L, Forouzanfar MH, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Hay SI, Holmberg M, Kinfu Y, Kutz MJ, Larson HJ, Liang X, Lopez AD, Lozano R, McNellan CR, Mokdad AH, Mooney MD, Naghavi M, Olsen HE, Pigott DM, Salomon JA, Vos T, Wang H, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abraham B, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abyu GY, Achoki T, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Afanvi KA, Afshin A, Agarwal A, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed KY, Akanda AS, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam U, Alasfoor D, AlBuhairan FS, Aldhahri SF, Aldridge RW, Alemu ZA, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alkhateeb MAB, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson BO, Anderson GM, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barber R, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barrero LH, Barrientos-Gutierrez T, Basu S, Bayou TA, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Bernal OA, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bienhoff KA, Bikbov B, Binagwaho A, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore J, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brauer M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Broday DM, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Butt ZA, Cahill LE, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carabin H, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Casey D, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Cecílio P, Chang HY, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Che X, Chen AZ, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Coates MM, Coggeshall M, Cohen AJ, Cooke GS, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cowie BC, Crump JA, Damtew SA, Dandona R, Dargan PI, Neves JD, Davis AC, Davletov K, de Castro EF, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Del Gobbo LC, Deribe K, Derrett S, Des Jarlais DC, Deshpande A, deVeber GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Ding EL, Dorsey ER, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ebrahimi H, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Fahimi S, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Felicio MM, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Fitzmaurice C, Foigt N, Foreman K, Fowkes FGR, Franca EB, Franklin RC, Fraser M, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Gabbe B, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebru AA, Gessner BD, Gillum RF, Ginawi IAM, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin W, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Graetz N, Greenwell KF, Griswold M, Gugnani H, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Haakenstad A, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Heredia-Pi IB, Hoek HW, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang H, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Inoue M, Islami F, Jacobs TA, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, James P, Jansen HAFM, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jin Y, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Kandel A, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Karunapema P, Kasaeian A, Kassebaum NJ, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kayibanda JF, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khoja TAM, Khosravi A, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim S, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kosen S, Kotsakis GA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krueger H, Defo BK, Kuchenbecker RS, Kuipers EJ, Kulikoff XR, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Kyu HH, Lal A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lan Q, Langan SM, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Latif AA, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leinsalu M, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Li Y, Lind M, Linn S, Lipshultz SE, Liu PY, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Lo LT, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, El Razek MMA, Magis-Rodriguez C, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mapoma CC, Margolis DJ, Martin RV, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Massano J, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mensink GBM, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mesfin YM, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Misganaw A, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Monasta L, de la Cruz Monis J, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morawska L, Mori R, Mueller UO, Murdoch ME, Murimira B, Murray J, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nangia V, Neal B, Nejjari C, Newton CR, Newton JN, Ngalesoni FN, Nguhiu P, Nguyen G, Le Nguyen Q, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nolte S, Nomura M, Norheim OF, Norrving B, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osborne RH, Ota E, Owolabi MO, PA M, Park EK, Park HY, Parry CD, Parsaeian M, Patel T, Patel V, Caicedo AJP, Patil ST, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paudel D, Pedro JM, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Pinho C, Pishgar F, Polinder S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Raju M, Ram U, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Ranganathan K, Rao PC, Refaat AH, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Blancas MJR, Roba HS, Roberts B, Rodriguez A, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Roy N, Sackey BB, Sagar R, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Santos JV, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Sawyer SM, Schmidhuber J, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford K, Shaheen A, Shaikh MA, Levy TS, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Sheth KN, Shey M, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Sigfusdottir ID, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh GM, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Skirbekk V, Sligar A, Soneji S, Søreide K, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soshnikov S, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stahl HC, Stanaway JD, Stathopoulou V, Steckling N, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stöckl H, Stranges S, Strong M, Sun J, Sunguya BF, Sur P, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Talongwa RT, Tarawneh MR, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Tedla BA, Tefera W, Tegegne TK, Tekle DY, Shifa GT, Terkawi AS, Tessema GA, Thakur JS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Dimbuene ZT, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Donkelaar A, Varakin YY, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Veerman JL, Venketasubramanian N, Verma RK, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Volkow P, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Wallin MT, Wang L, Wanga V, Watkins DA, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wilkinson JD, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wolfe I, Won S, Woolf AD, Workie SB, Wubshet M, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, El Sayed Zaki M, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Zapata T, Zegeye EA, Zhao Y, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Zonies D, Murray CJL. Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1813-1850. [PMID: 27665228 PMCID: PMC5055583 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31467-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 250] [Impact Index Per Article: 31.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2016] [Revised: 08/13/2016] [Accepted: 08/16/2016] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). METHODS We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. FINDINGS In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8-61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2-86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4-24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. INTERPRETATION GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Forouzanfar MH, Afshin A, Alexander LT, Anderson HR, Bhutta ZA, Biryukov S, Brauer M, Burnett R, Cercy K, Charlson FJ, Cohen AJ, Dandona L, Estep K, Ferrari AJ, Frostad JJ, Fullman N, Gething PW, Godwin WW, Griswold M, Hay SI, Kinfu Y, Kyu HH, Larson HJ, Liang X, Lim SS, Liu PY, Lopez AD, Lozano R, Marczak L, Mensah GA, Mokdad AH, Moradi-Lakeh M, Naghavi M, Neal B, Reitsma MB, Roth GA, Salomon JA, Sur PJ, Vos T, Wagner JA, Wang H, Zhao Y, Zhou M, Aasvang GM, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abera SF, Abraham B, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abyu GY, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ajala ON, Akinyemiju TF, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Aldhahri SF, Aldridge RW, Alemu ZA, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Balakrishnan K, Barac A, Barber RM, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu S, Batis C, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bell B, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore JD, Borschmann R, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Broday DM, Brugha TS, Brunekreef B, Butt ZA, Cahill LE, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Casey DC, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Chang JC, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Coates MM, Colquhoun SM, Manzano AGC, Cooper LT, Cooperrider K, Cornaby L, Cortinovis M, Crump JA, Cuevas-Nasu L, Damasceno A, Dandona R, Darby SC, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davis AC, Davletov K, de Castro EF, De la Cruz-Góngora V, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Del Gobbo LC, del Pozo-Cruz B, Dellavalle RP, Deribew A, Jarlais DCD, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Diaz-Torné C, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dorsey ER, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Fahimi S, Faraon EJA, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Fleming T, Foigt N, Foreman K, Fowkes FGR, Franklin RC, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gakidou E, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Goenka S, Gomez-Cabrera MC, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Gugnani HC, Guillemin F, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gutiérrez RA, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Hassen TA, Havmoeller R, Heredia-Pi IB, Hernández-Llanes NF, Heydarpour P, Hoek HW, Hoffman HJ, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Hutchings SJ, Huybrechts I, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Ileanu BV, Inoue M, Jacobs TA, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Jansen HAFM, Jassal SK, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jin Y, Johnson CO, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Kasaeian A, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazi DS, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khatibzadeh S, Khera S, Khoja TAM, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim CI, Kim D, Kimokoti RW, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Kokubo Y, Kopec JA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Kromhout H, Krueger H, Ku T, Defo BK, Kuchenbecker RS, Bicer BK, Kuipers EJ, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lan Q, Larsson A, Latif AA, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung J, Levi M, Li X, Li Y, Liang J, Liu S, Lloyd BK, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, MacIntyre M, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Manamo WAA, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Martin RV, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Matsushita K, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Meaney PA, Medina C, Mehari A, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mensink GBM, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mesfin YM, Mhimbira FA, Millear A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Misganaw A, Mock CN, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Mola GLD, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Morawska L, Mori R, Mozaffarian D, Mueller UO, Mullany E, Mumford JE, Murthy GVS, Nachega JB, Naheed A, Nangia V, Nassiri N, Newton JN, Ng M, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olivares PR, Olsen H, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Orozco R, Ortiz A, Ota E, PA M, Pana A, Park EK, Parry CD, Parsaeian M, Patel T, Caicedo AJP, Patil ST, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Plass D, Polinder S, Pond CD, Pope CA, Pope D, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prasad NM, Qorbani M, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Raju M, Ram U, Rana SM, Ranganathan K, Rao P, García CAR, Refaat AH, Rehm CD, Rehm J, Reinig N, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Rivera JA, Roba HS, Rodriguez A, Rodriguez-Ramirez S, Rojas-Rueda D, Roman Y, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Riera L, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sánchez-Pimienta TG, Sandar L, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schmidhuber J, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shaddick G, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Levy TS, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Sheth KN, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh PK, Slepak EL, Soljak M, Soneji S, Sorensen RJD, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steckling N, Steel N, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Stöckl H, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Takahashi K, Talongwa RT, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tavakkoli M, Taye BW, Taylor HR, Tedla BA, Tefera WM, Tegegne TK, Tekle DY, Terkawi AS, Thakur JS, Thomas BA, Thomas ML, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tobe-Gai R, Tobollik M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Towbin JA, Tran BX, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimparis N, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Donkelaar A, van Os J, Varakin YY, Vasankari T, Veerman JL, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Waller SG, Wang JL, Wang L, Wang Y, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Woolf AD, Wubshet M, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zhu J, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1659-1724. [PMID: 27733284 PMCID: PMC5388856 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31679-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2646] [Impact Index Per Article: 330.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2016] [Revised: 08/13/2016] [Accepted: 08/19/2016] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGS Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. INTERPRETATION Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Wang H, Naghavi M, Allen C, Barber RM, Bhutta ZA, Carter A, Casey DC, Charlson FJ, Chen AZ, Coates MM, Coggeshall M, Dandona L, Dicker DJ, Erskine HE, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Foreman K, Forouzanfar MH, Fraser MS, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Graetz N, Haagsma JA, Hay SI, Huynh C, Johnson CO, Kassebaum NJ, Kinfu Y, Kulikoff XR, Kutz M, Kyu HH, Larson HJ, Leung J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lind M, Lozano R, Marquez N, Mensah GA, Mikesell J, Mokdad AH, Mooney MD, Nguyen G, Nsoesie E, Pigott DM, Pinho C, Roth GA, Salomon JA, Sandar L, Silpakit N, Sligar A, Sorensen RJD, Stanaway J, Steiner C, Teeple S, Thomas BA, Troeger C, VanderZanden A, Vollset SE, Wanga V, Whiteford HA, Wolock T, Zoeckler L, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abreu DMX, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abyu GY, Achoki T, Adelekan AL, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afanvi KA, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ajala ON, Akanda AS, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Lami FHA, Alabed S, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Alasfoor D, Aldhahri SF, Aldridge RW, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alexander LT, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amegah AK, Ameh EA, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson BO, Anderson GM, Antonio CAT, Aregay AF, Ärnlöv J, Arsenijevic VSA, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu A, Basu S, Bayou YT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Belay HA, Bell B, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Abdulhak AAB, Biroscak BJ, Biryukov S, Bjertness E, Blore JD, Blosser CD, Bohensky MA, Borschmann R, Bose D, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brayne CEG, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Brewer JD, Brown A, Brown J, Brugha TS, Buckle GC, Butt ZA, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Cercy K, Cerda J, Chen W, Chew A, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chibueze CE, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Colistro V, Colomar M, Colquhoun SM, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cortinovis M, Cowie BC, Crump JA, Damsere-Derry J, Danawi H, Dandona R, Daoud F, Darby SC, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davis AC, Davitoiu DV, de Castro EF, de Jager P, Leo DD, Degenhardt L, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deribew A, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Diaz-Torné C, Ding EL, dos Santos KPB, Dossou E, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ellenbogen RG, Ellingsen CL, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Faghmous IDA, Fahimi S, Faraon EJA, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Flaxman A, Foigt N, Fowkes FGR, Franca EB, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gall SL, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Ganguly P, Gankpé FG, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebru AA, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Ghoshal AG, Gibney KB, Gillum RF, Gilmour S, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Glaser E, Godwin WW, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gosselin RA, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Greaves F, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hancock J, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Heckbert SR, Heredia-Pi IB, Heydarpour P, Hilderink HBM, Hoek HW, Hogg RS, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Htike MMT, Hu G, Huang C, Huang H, Huiart L, Husseini A, Huybrechts I, Huynh G, Iburg KM, Innos K, Inoue M, Iyer VJ, Jacobs TA, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, James P, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jimenez-Corona A, Jonas JB, Joshi TK, Kabir Z, Kamal R, Kan H, Kant S, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Karletsos D, Karthikeyan G, Kasaeian A, Katibeh M, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kayibanda JF, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kereselidze M, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khera S, Khoja TAM, Kieling C, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kissela BM, Kissoon N, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Krog NH, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kudom AA, Kuipers EJ, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lal A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lam JO, Langan SM, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Latif AA, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leigh J, Levi M, Li Y, Lindsay MP, Lipshultz SE, Liu PY, Liu S, Liu Y, Lo LT, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Machado VMP, Mackay MT, MacLachlan JH, Razek HMAE, Magdy M, Razek AE, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Manamo WAA, Mandisarisa J, Mangalam S, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Margolis DJ, Martin GR, Martinez-Raga J, Marzan MB, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Massano J, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGarvey ST, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McMahon BJ, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Mehndiratta MM, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Millear A, Miller TR, Mirarefin M, Misganaw A, Mock CN, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Mohan V, Mola GLD, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montero P, Montico M, Montine TJ, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morawska L, Morgan K, Mori R, Mozaffarian D, Mueller UO, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naidoo KS, Naik N, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nash D, Nejjari C, Neupane S, Newton CR, Newton JN, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, de Dieu Ngirabega J, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nomura M, Norheim OF, Norman PE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Ogbo FA, Ohkubo T, Ojelabi FA, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osman M, Ota E, Ozdemir R, PA M, Pain A, Pandian JD, Pant PR, Papachristou C, Park EK, Park JH, Parry CD, Parsaeian M, Caicedo AJP, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paul VK, Pearce N, Pedro JM, Stokic LP, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Plass D, Platts-Mills JA, Polinder S, Pope CA, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Qorbani M, Quame-Amaglo J, Quistberg DA, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajavi Z, Rajsic S, Raju M, Rakovac I, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Rangaswamy T, Rao P, Rao SR, Refaat AH, Rehm J, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Ricci S, Blancas MJR, Roberts B, Roca A, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Roy NK, Ruhago GM, Sagar R, Saha S, Sahathevan R, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sanchez-Riera L, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schaub MP, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaddick G, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shakh-Nazarova M, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Shen Z, Shepard DS, Sheth KN, Shetty BP, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Singh A, Singh GM, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Singh V, Soneji S, Søreide K, Soriano JB, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Sur P, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Takahashi K, Takala JS, Talongwa RT, Tandon N, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Ao BJT, Tedla BA, Tefera WM, Have MT, Terkawi AS, Tesfay FH, Tessema GA, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tirschwell DL, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Towbin JA, Traebert J, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Trujillo U, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uthman OA, Dingenen RV, van Donkelaar A, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Vijayakumar L, Villalpando S, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Wagner JA, Wagner GR, Wallin MT, Wang L, Watkins DA, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, White RA, Wijeratne T, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyohannes SM, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Wong JQ, Woolf AD, Xavier D, Xiao Q, Xu G, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yebyo HG, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yonemoto N, Yonga G, Younis MZ, Yu S, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zannad F, Zavala DE, Zeeb H, Zeleke BM, Zhang H, Zodpey S, Zonies D, Zuhlke LJ, Vos T, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1459-1544. [PMID: 27733281 PMCID: PMC5388903 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31012-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4031] [Impact Index Per Article: 503.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. METHODS We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). FINDINGS Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. INTERPRETATION At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Kassebaum NJ, Arora M, Barber RM, Bhutta ZA, Brown J, Carter A, Casey DC, Charlson FJ, Coates MM, Coggeshall M, Cornaby L, Dandona L, Dicker DJ, Erskine HE, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Foreman K, Forouzanfar MH, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Graetz N, Haagsma JA, Hay SI, Johnson CO, Kemmer L, Khalil IA, Kinfu Y, Kutz MJ, Kyu HH, Leung J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lozano R, Mensah GA, Mikesell J, Mokdad AH, Mooney MD, Naghavi M, Nguyen G, Nsoesie E, Pigott DM, Pinho C, Rankin Z, Reinig N, Salomon JA, Sandar L, Smith A, Sorensen RJD, Stanaway J, Steiner C, Teeple S, Troeger C, Truelsen T, VanderZanden A, Wagner JA, Wanga V, Whiteford HA, Zhou M, Zoeckler L, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abraham B, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Achoki T, Ackerman IN, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Adsuar JC, Afanvi KA, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Agarwal SK, Ahmed MB, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmadieh H, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Aldhahri SF, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alexander LT, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Anderson GM, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Arsenijevic VSA, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu S, Bayou TA, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bell B, Bell ML, Benjet C, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Abdulhak AAB, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore JD, Borschmann R, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Buckle GC, Butt ZA, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carabin H, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Chang JC, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chibueze CE, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Choudhury L, Christensen H, Ciobanu LG, Colistro V, Colomar M, Colquhoun SM, Cortinovis M, Crump JA, Damasceno A, Dandona R, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davis AC, Leo DD, Degenhardt L, Gobbo LCD, Derrett S, Jarlais DCD, deVeber GA, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Ding EL, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ebrahimi H, Ellenbogen RG, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Fahimi S, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Foigt N, Fowkes FGR, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gabbe B, Gankpé FG, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Geleijnse JM, Gibney KB, Gillum RF, Ginawi IAM, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Gugnani H, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Hassen TA, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hedayati MT, Heredia-Pi IB, Heydarpour P, Hoek HW, Hoffman DJ, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Huang H, Huang JJ, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Innos K, Inoue M, Jacobsen KH, Jauregui A, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jimenez-Corona A, Jin Y, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kajungu DK, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Kandel A, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Kasaeian A, Katibeh M, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazi DS, Keiyoro PN, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khoja TAM, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Defo BK, Kuchenbecker RS, Bicer BK, Kuipers EJ, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Larsson A, Latif AA, Lavados PM, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung R, Li Y, Li Y, Lipshultz SE, Liu PY, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lotufo PA, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Razek HMAE, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Marcenes W, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mesfin YM, Mhimbira FA, Millear A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Mori R, Mueller UO, Mumford JE, Murdoch ME, Murthy GVS, Nachega JB, Naheed A, Naldi L, Nangia V, Newton JN, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nolla JM, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oren E, Ortiz A, Ota E, Oyekale AS, PA M, Park EK, Parsaeian M, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pedro JM, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Pishgar F, Plass D, Polinder S, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prasad NM, Qorbani M, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai D, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Raju M, Ram U, Ranganathan K, Refaat AH, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Reynolds A, Ribeiro AL, Ricci S, Roba HS, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Roy A, Sackey BB, Sagar R, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santos JV, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Sheth KN, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh PK, Skirbekk V, Skogen JC, Soljak M, Søreide K, Sorensen RJD, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Steiner TJ, Stovner LJ, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Ao BJT, Tegegne TK, Tekle DY, Terkawi AS, Tessema GA, Thakur JS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimbaris M, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Gool CH, van Os J, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Wallin MT, Wang L, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Wijeratne T, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyohannes SM, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zeeb H, Zodpey S, Zonies D, Zuhlke LJ, Vos T, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1603-1658. [PMID: 27733283 PMCID: PMC5388857 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31460-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1387] [Impact Index Per Article: 173.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2016] [Revised: 08/11/2016] [Accepted: 08/16/2016] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. METHODS We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. INTERPRETATION Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Patton GC, Sawyer SM, Ross DA, Viner RM, Santelli JS. From Advocacy to Action in Global Adolescent Health. J Adolesc Health 2016; 59:375-7. [PMID: 27664465 DOI: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2016.08.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2016] [Accepted: 08/01/2016] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
In May 2016, The Lancet published a report titled, "Our Future: A Lancet Commission on Adolescent Health and Wellbeing," the culmination of three years of work from a geographically diverse interdisciplinary group. The report argued that healthy growth across adolescence and young adulthood shapes life course and intergenerational trajectories so that health investments yield a "triple dividend." With current global interest in adolescent health at an unprecedented level, it outlines three next steps to advance from advocacy to effective action: (1) there is a pressing need for comprehensive and integrated strategies, inclusive of, but extending beyond, sexual and reproductive health, and HIV; (2) interventions should address both adolescent health service coverage and determinants of health that lie in sectors such as education, justice, transport, and industry and employment, as well as families and local communities; and (3) scale-up of responses will require not only investments in country-level capacities for measuring need and responding with evidence-based practice but also the establishment of processes for accountability and meaningful youth engagement.
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Hinchliff GLM, Kelly AB, Chan GCK, Patton GC, Williams J. Risky dieting amongst adolescent girls: Associations with family relationship problems and depressed mood. Eat Behav 2016; 22:222-224. [PMID: 27322520 DOI: 10.1016/j.eatbeh.2016.06.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2016] [Accepted: 06/01/2016] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This study examined the association of risky dieting amongst adolescent girls with depressed mood, family conflict, and parent-child emotional closeness. METHOD Grade 6 and 8 females (aged 11-14years, N=4031) were recruited from 231 schools in 30 communities, across three Australian States (Queensland, Victoria, and Western Australia). Key measures were based on the Adolescent Dieting Scale, Short Mood and Feelings Questionnaire, and widely used short measures of family relationship quality. Controls included age, early pubertal onset, and socioeconomic status. RESULTS Risky dieting was significantly related to family conflict and depressed mood, depressed mood mediated the association of family conflict and risky dieting, and these associations remained significant with controls in the model. CONCLUSION Family conflict and adolescent depressed mood are associated with risky dieting. IMPLICATIONS Prevention programs may benefit from a broadening of behavioural targets to include depressed mood and family problems.
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Moran P, Romaniuk H, Coffey C, Chanen A, Degenhardt L, Borschmann R, Patton GC. The influence of personality disorder on the future mental health and social adjustment of young adults: a population-based, longitudinal cohort study. Lancet Psychiatry 2016; 3:636-45. [PMID: 27342692 DOI: 10.1016/s2215-0366(16)30029-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2016] [Revised: 03/23/2016] [Accepted: 03/30/2016] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Existing knowledge about the consequences of personality disorders is substantially derived from the study of clinical populations. To gain a fuller understanding of the disease burden associated with personality disorders, we report their long-term mental health and social consequences in a large population-based sample of young adults. METHODS We used data from a population-based, ten-wave cohort study of a stratified random sample of non-treatment-seeking young adults recruited from Victoria, Australia, between Aug 20, 1992, and March 3, 2014. The population sample was originally recruited in adolescence: here we report the analysis of data collected from wave 8 (participants aged 24-25 years) and wave 10 (participants aged 34-35 years). Presence and severity of personality disorder were assessed at age 24 years with a semi-structured, informant-based interview (the Standardised Assessment of Personality). At age 35 years, participants were assessed on the occurrence of the following outcomes: major depressive disorder, anxiety disorder, smoking and alcohol consumption, illicit substance use, ever having separated from a long-term partner or been divorced, not currently in a relationship, not currently in paid employment, and in receipt of government welfare. We used multiple imputation to address potentially biased estimates resulting from the reduction of the analysis sample to participants who had completed both survey waves. The imputation dataset contained 1635 individuals. FINDINGS For the 1520 participants in wave 8, 1145 (75%) informant interviews for personality disorder in these participants took place. At age 24 years, 305 (27%) of the observed sample had either personality difficulties or personality disorder. At age 24 years, in the imputed analysis sample, the severity of personality disorder was associated with the absence of a degree or vocational qualification (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for the effect of complex and severe personality disorder vs no personality disorder 1·76, 95% CI 1·11-2·76), receipt of welfare (2·52, 1·33-4·78), the presence of common mental disorders (1·77, 1·08-2·90), and cigarette smoking (2·01, 1·29-3·14). At age 35 years, severity of personality disorder was independently associated with not being in a relationship (aOR for the effect of complex and severe personality disorder vs no personality disorder or personality difficulty 2·05, 95% CI 1·21-3·45), increased odds of an anxiety disorder (2·27, 1·2-4·28), and major depression (2·23, 1·24-4·01). INTERPRETATION The presence of personality disorder predicts the occurrence of later anxiety and depression, as well as the absence of long-term relationships, effects that are not attributable to pre-existing mental health, substance use or social problems. Our study provides strong support for including personality disorder in global studies of the burden of mental disorders to improve the understanding of population mental health. FUNDING Australia's National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) and Victoria's Operational Infrastructure Support Program.
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Mokdad AH, Forouzanfar MH, Daoud F, Mokdad AA, El Bcheraoui C, Moradi-Lakeh M, Kyu HH, Barber RM, Wagner J, Cercy K, Kravitz H, Coggeshall M, Chew A, O'Rourke KF, Steiner C, Tuffaha M, Charara R, Al-Ghamdi EA, Adi Y, Afifi RA, Alahmadi H, AlBuhairan F, Allen N, AlMazroa M, Al-Nehmi AA, AlRayess Z, Arora M, Azzopardi P, Barroso C, Basulaiman M, Bhutta ZA, Bonell C, Breinbauer C, Degenhardt L, Denno D, Fang J, Fatusi A, Feigl AB, Kakuma R, Karam N, Kennedy E, Khoja TAM, Maalouf F, Obermeyer CM, Mattoo A, McGovern T, Memish ZA, Mensah GA, Patel V, Petroni S, Reavley N, Zertuche DR, Saeedi M, Santelli J, Sawyer SM, Ssewamala F, Taiwo K, Tantawy M, Viner RM, Waldfogel J, Zuñiga MP, Naghavi M, Wang H, Vos T, Lopez AD, Al Rabeeah AA, Patton GC, Murray CJL. Global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors for young people's health during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet 2016; 387:2383-401. [PMID: 27174305 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)00648-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 590] [Impact Index Per Article: 73.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Young people's health has emerged as a neglected yet pressing issue in global development. Changing patterns of young people's health have the potential to undermine future population health as well as global economic development unless timely and effective strategies are put into place. We report the past, present, and anticipated burden of disease in young people aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2013 using data on mortality, disability, injuries, and health risk factors. METHODS The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) includes annual assessments for 188 countries from 1990 to 2013, covering 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. We used the comparative risk assessment approach to assess how much of the burden of disease reported in a given year can be attributed to past exposure to a risk. We estimated attributable burden by comparing observed health outcomes with those that would have been observed if an alternative or counterfactual level of exposure had occurred in the past. We applied the same method to previous years to allow comparisons from 1990 to 2013. We cross-tabulated the quantiles of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by quintiles of DALYs annual increase from 1990 to 2013 to show rates of DALYs increase by burden. We used the GBD 2013 hierarchy of causes that organises 306 diseases and injuries into four levels of classification. Level one distinguishes three broad categories: first, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders; second, non-communicable diseases; and third, injuries. Level two has 21 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive categories, level three has 163 categories, and level four has 254 categories. FINDINGS The leading causes of death in 2013 for young people aged 10-14 years were HIV/AIDS, road injuries, and drowning (25·2%), whereas transport injuries were the leading cause of death for ages 15-19 years (14·2%) and 20-24 years (15·6%). Maternal disorders were the highest cause of death for young women aged 20-24 years (17·1%) and the fourth highest for girls aged 15-19 years (11·5%) in 2013. Unsafe sex as a risk factor for DALYs increased from the 13th rank to the second for both sexes aged 15-19 years from 1990 to 2013. Alcohol misuse was the highest risk factor for DALYs (7·0% overall, 10·5% for males, and 2·7% for females) for young people aged 20-24 years, whereas drug use accounted for 2·7% (3·3% for males and 2·0% for females). The contribution of risk factors varied between and within countries. For example, for ages 20-24 years, drug use was highest in Qatar and accounted for 4·9% of DALYs, followed by 4·8% in the United Arab Emirates, whereas alcohol use was highest in Russia and accounted for 21·4%, followed by 21·0% in Belarus. Alcohol accounted for 9·0% (ranging from 4·2% in Hong Kong to 11·3% in Shandong) in China and 11·6% (ranging from 10·1% in Aguascalientes to 14·9% in Chihuahua) of DALYs in Mexico for young people aged 20-24 years. Alcohol and drug use in those aged 10-24 years had an annual rate of change of >1·0% from 1990 to 2013 and accounted for more than 3·1% of DALYs. INTERPRETATION Our findings call for increased efforts to improve health and reduce the burden of disease and risks for diseases in later life in young people. Moreover, because of the large variations between countries in risks and burden, a global approach to improve health during this important period of life will fail unless the particularities of each country are taken into account. Finally, our results call for a strategy to overcome the financial and technical barriers to adequately capture young people's health risk factors and their determinants in health information systems. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Patton GC, Sawyer SM, Santelli JS, Ross DA, Afifi R, Allen NB, Arora M, Azzopardi P, Baldwin W, Bonell C, Kakuma R, Kennedy E, Mahon J, McGovern T, Mokdad AH, Patel V, Petroni S, Reavley N, Taiwo K, Waldfogel J, Wickremarathne D, Barroso C, Bhutta Z, Fatusi AO, Mattoo A, Diers J, Fang J, Ferguson J, Ssewamala F, Viner RM. Our future: a Lancet commission on adolescent health and wellbeing. Lancet 2016; 387:2423-78. [PMID: 27174304 PMCID: PMC5832967 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)00579-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1688] [Impact Index Per Article: 211.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
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Coffey C, Patton GC. Cannabis Use in Adolescence and Young Adulthood: A Review of Findings from the Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study. CANADIAN JOURNAL OF PSYCHIATRY. REVUE CANADIENNE DE PSYCHIATRIE 2016; 61:318-27. [PMID: 27254840 PMCID: PMC4872246 DOI: 10.1177/0706743716645289] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study (VAHCS) is a long-term Australian cohort study that has documented cannabis use in young Australians from the mid-teens to the mid-30s. The study findings have described the natural history of early cannabis use, remission, and escalation and the social and mental health consequences of different patterns of use. The adverse consequences of cannabis use are most clear-cut in heavy early adolescent users. These consequences include educational failure, persisting mental health problems, and progression to other substance use. For later onset and occasional users, the risks are lower and appear to entail modest elevations in risk for other drug use compared with never users. With growing evidence of health consequences, there is a strong case for actions around early heavy adolescent users. Prevention of early use, identification and treatment of early heavy users, and harm reduction through diversion of early heavy users away from the custodial justice system into health care are all priority responses.
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Kyu HH, Pinho C, Wagner JA, Brown JC, Bertozzi-Villa A, Charlson FJ, Coffeng LE, Dandona L, Erskine HE, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Fleming TD, Forouzanfar MH, Graetz N, Guinovart C, Haagsma J, Higashi H, Kassebaum NJ, Larson HJ, Lim SS, Mokdad AH, Moradi-Lakeh M, Odell SV, Roth GA, Serina PT, Stanaway JD, Misganaw A, Whiteford HA, Wolock TM, Wulf Hanson S, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abu-Raddad LJ, AlBuhairan FS, Amare AT, Antonio CAT, Artaman A, Barker-Collo SL, Barrero LH, Benjet C, Bensenor IM, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Brazinova A, Campos-Nonato I, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Chowdhury R, Cooper C, Crump JA, Dandona R, Degenhardt L, Dellavalle RP, Dharmaratne SD, Faraon EJA, Feigin VL, Fürst T, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gibney KB, Goto A, Gunnell D, Hankey GJ, Hay RJ, Hornberger JC, Hosgood HD, Hu G, Jacobsen KH, Jayaraman SP, Jeemon P, Jonas JB, Karch A, Kim D, Kim S, Kokubo Y, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar GA, Larsson A, Leasher JL, Leung R, Li Y, Lipshultz SE, Lopez AD, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Majdan M, Malekzadeh R, Mashal T, Mason-Jones AJ, Melaku YA, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Miller TR, Mock CN, Murray J, Nolte S, Oh IH, Olusanya BO, Ortblad KF, Park EK, Paternina Caicedo AJ, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pereira DM, Perico N, Piel FB, Polinder S, Popova S, Pourmalek F, Quistberg DA, Remuzzi G, Rodriguez A, Rojas-Rueda D, Rothenbacher D, Rothstein DH, Sanabria J, Santos IS, Schwebel DC, Sepanlou SG, Shaheen A, Shiri R, Shiue I, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Sreeramareddy CT, Stein DJ, Steiner TJ, Stovner LJ, Sykes BL, Tabb KM, Terkawi AS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Towbin JA, Ukwaja KN, Vasankari T, Venketasubramanian N, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Wilkinson JD, Woldeyohannes SM, Wolfe CDA, Yano Y, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, El Sayed Zaki M, Naghavi M, Murray CJL, Vos T. Global and National Burden of Diseases and Injuries Among Children and Adolescents Between 1990 and 2013: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study. JAMA Pediatr 2016; 170:267-87. [PMID: 26810619 PMCID: PMC5076765 DOI: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2015.4276] [Citation(s) in RCA: 397] [Impact Index Per Article: 49.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
IMPORTANCE The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce. OBJECTIVE To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study. EVIDENCE REVIEW Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14,244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35,620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates. FINDINGS Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905.059 deaths; 95% UI, 810,304-998,125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38,325 deaths; 95% UI, 30,365-47,678), and road injuries among adolescents (115,186 deaths; 95% UI, 105,185-124,870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.
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Olsson CA, Romaniuk H, Salinger J, Staiger PK, Bonomo Y, Hulbert C, Patton GC. Drinking patterns of adolescents who develop alcohol use disorders: results from the Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study. BMJ Open 2016; 6:e010455. [PMID: 26868948 PMCID: PMC4762151 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-010455] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE We identify drinking styles that place teens at greatest risk of later alcohol use disorders (AUD). DESIGN Population-based cohort study. SETTING Victoria, Australia. PARTICIPANTS A representative sample of 1943 adolescents living in Victoria in 1992. OUTCOME MEASURES Teen drinking was assessed at 6 monthly intervals (5 waves) between mean ages 14.9 and 17.4 years and summarised across waves as none, one, or two or more waves of: (1) frequent drinking (3+ days in the past week), (2) loss of control over drinking (difficulty stopping, amnesia), (3) binge drinking (5+ standard drinks in a day) and (4) heavy binge drinking (20+ and 11+ standard drinks in a day for males and females, respectively). Young Adult Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) was assessed at 3 yearly intervals (3 waves) across the 20s (mean ages 20.7 through 29.1 years). RESULTS We show that patterns of teen drinking characterised by loss of control increase risk for AUD across young adulthood: loss of control over drinking (one wave OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.8; two or more waves OR 1.9, CI 1.4 to 2.7); binge drinking (one wave OR 1.7, CI 1.3 to 2.3; two or more waves OR 2.0, CI 1.5 to 2.6), and heavy binge drinking (one wave OR 2.0, CI 1.4 to 2.8; two or more waves OR 2.3, CI 1.6 to 3.4). This is not so for frequent drinking, which was unrelated to later AUD. Although drinking was more common in males, there was no evidence of sex differences in risk relationships. CONCLUSIONS Our results extend previous work by showing that patterns of drinking that represent loss of control over alcohol consumption (however expressed) are important targets for intervention. In addition to current policies that may reduce overall consumption, emphasising prevention of more extreme teenage bouts of alcohol consumption appears warranted.
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Kelly AB, Mason WA, Chmelka MB, Herrenkohl TI, Kim MJ, Patton GC, Hemphill SA, Toumbourou JW, Catalano RF. Depressed Mood During Early to Middle Adolescence: A Bi-national Longitudinal Study of the Unique Impact of Family Conflict. J Youth Adolesc 2016; 45:1604-13. [PMID: 26861643 DOI: 10.1007/s10964-016-0433-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2015] [Accepted: 02/01/2016] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
Adolescent depressed mood is related to the development of subsequent mental health problems, and family problems have been linked to adolescent depression. Longitudinal research on adolescent depressed mood is needed to establish the unique impact of family problems independent of other potential drivers. This study tested the extent to which family conflict exacerbates depressed mood during adolescence, independent of changes in depressed mood over time, academic performance, bullying victimization, negative cognitive style, and gender. Students (13 years old) participated in a three-wave bi-national study (n = 961 from the State of Washington, United States, n = 981 from Victoria, Australia; 98 % retention, 51 % female in each sample). The model was cross-lagged and controlled for the autocorrelation of depressed mood, negative cognitive style, academic failure, and bullying victimization. Family conflict partially predicted changes in depressed mood independent of changes in depressed mood over time and the other controls. There was also evidence that family conflict and adolescent depressed mood are reciprocally related over time. The findings were closely replicated across the two samples. The study identifies potential points of intervention to interrupt the progression of depressed mood in early to middle adolescence.
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Scholes-Balog KE, Hemphill SA, Evans-Whipp TJ, Toumbourou JW, Patton GC. Developmental trajectories of adolescent cannabis use and their relationship to young adult social and behavioural adjustment: A longitudinal study of Australian youth. Addict Behav 2016; 53:11-8. [PMID: 26414206 DOI: 10.1016/j.addbeh.2015.09.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2015] [Revised: 09/14/2015] [Accepted: 09/17/2015] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
This study aimed to identify distinct developmental trajectories (sub-groups of individuals who showed similar longitudinal patterns) of cannabis use among Australian adolescents, and to examine associations between trajectory group membership and measures of social and behavioural adjustment in young adulthood. Participants (n=852, 53% female) were part of the International Youth Development Study. Latent class growth analysis was used to identify distinct trajectories of cannabis use frequency from average ages 12 to 19, across 6 waves of data. Logistic regression analyses and analyses of covariance were used to examine relationships between trajectory group membership and young adult (average age: 21) adjustment, controlling for a range of covariates. Three trajectories were identified: abstainers (62%), early onset users (11%), and late onset occasional users (27%). The early onset users showed a higher frequency of antisocial behaviour, violence, cannabis use, cannabis-related harms, cigarette use, and alcohol harms, compared to the abstinent group in young adulthood. The late onset occasional users reported a higher frequency of cannabis use, cannabis-related harms, illicit drug use, and alcohol harms, compared to the abstinent group in young adulthood. There were no differences between the trajectory groups on measures of employment, school completion, post-secondary education, income, depression/anxiety, or alcohol use problems. In conclusion, early onset of cannabis use, even at relatively low frequency during adolescence, is associated with poorer adjustment in young adulthood. Prevention and intervention efforts to delay or prevent uptake of cannabis use should be particularly focussed on early adolescence prior to age 12.
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Murray CR, Simmons JG, Allen NB, Byrne ML, Mundy LK, Seal ML, Patton GC, Olsson CA, Whittle S. Associations between dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) levels, pituitary volume, and social anxiety in children. Psychoneuroendocrinology 2016; 64:31-9. [PMID: 26600008 DOI: 10.1016/j.psyneuen.2015.11.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2015] [Revised: 10/30/2015] [Accepted: 11/06/2015] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Early timing of adrenarche, associated with relatively high levels of dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) and its sulphate (DHEA-S) in children, has been linked with mental health problems, particularly anxiety. However, little is known about possible neurobiological mechanisms underlying this association. The pituitary gland is a key component of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, the activation of which triggers the onset of adrenarche. The purpose of this study was to examine the extent to which pituitary gland volume mediated the relationship between levels of DHEA/DHEA-S relative to age (i.e., adrenarcheal timing) and symptoms of anxiety in 95 children (50 female, M age 9.50 years, SD 0.34 years). Relatively high DHEA and DHEA-S (DHEA/S) levels were found to be associated with larger pituitary gland volumes. There was no significant direct effect of relative DHEA/S levels on overall symptoms of anxiety. However, results supported an indirect link between relatively high DHEA/S levels and symptoms of social anxiety, mediated by pituitary gland volume. No sex differences were observed for any relationship. Our findings suggest that neurobiological mechanisms may be partly responsible for the link between relatively early adrenarche and anxiety symptoms in children. One possible mechanism for this finding is that an enlarged pituitary gland in children experiencing relatively advanced adrenarche might be associated with hyper-activity/reactivity of the HPA axis. Further research is needed to understand the role of stress in the link between adrenarcheal timing and HPA-axis function, especially in relation to the development of anxiety symptoms in children and adolescents.
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Patton GC, Olsson C, Brown S. Perinatal depressive symptoms preceded by mental health problems - Authors' reply. Lancet 2016; 387:126. [PMID: 26841998 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(15)01357-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
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Simmons JG, Badcock PB, Whittle SL, Byrne ML, Mundy L, Patton GC, Olsson CA, Allen NB. The lifetime experience of traumatic events is associated with hair cortisol concentrations in community-based children. Psychoneuroendocrinology 2016; 63:276-81. [PMID: 26529051 DOI: 10.1016/j.psyneuen.2015.10.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 66] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2015] [Revised: 10/04/2015] [Accepted: 10/05/2015] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Adversity early in life can disrupt the functioning of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis (HPAA) and increase risk for negative health outcomes. Recent research suggests that cortisol in scalp hair represents a promising measure of HPAA function. However, little is known about the relationship between early exposure to traumatic events and hair cortisol concentrations (HCC) in childhood, a critical period of HPAA development. The current study measured HCC in scalp hair samples collected from 70 community-based children (14 males, mean age=9.50) participating in the Imaging Brain Development in the Childhood to Adolescence Transition Study (iCATS). Data were also collected on lifetime exposure to traumatic events and current depressive symptoms. Lifetime exposure to trauma was associated with elevated HCC; however, HCC was not associated with current depressive symptoms. Consistent with some prior work, males were found to have higher HCC than females, although results should be treated with caution due to the small number of males who took part. Our findings suggest that hair cortisol may represent a biomarker of exposure to trauma in this age group; however, further study is necessary with a particular focus on the characterization of trauma and other forms of adversity.
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Delany FM, Byrne ML, Whittle S, Simmons JG, Olsson C, Mundy LK, Patton GC, Allen NB. Depression, immune function, and early adrenarche in children. Psychoneuroendocrinology 2016; 63:228-34. [PMID: 26492635 DOI: 10.1016/j.psyneuen.2015.10.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2015] [Revised: 10/05/2015] [Accepted: 10/05/2015] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
Despite consistent findings of an association between depression and immunity in adult and adolescent populations, little is known about the nature of this relationship at earlier ages. Studies of children have yielded mixed results, suggesting methodological confounds and/or the presence of significant moderating factors. Timing of adrenarche, the first phase of puberty that occurs during late childhood, is a plausible moderator of the depression-immunity relationship in late childhood due to its associations with both the immune system and psychological wellbeing. We hypothesized that: (1) a depression-immunity association exists in children, (2) this association is moderated by adrenarcheal timing, and, (3) this association is also moderated by gender. Data were drawn from a nested study of 103 participants (62 females, Mage=9.5, age range: 8.67-10.21 years) participating in a population based cohort study of the transition from childhood to adolescence (across puberty). Participants in this nested study completed the Children's Depression Inventory 2 (CDI-2) and provided morning saliva samples to measure immune markers (i.e., C-reactive protein, CRP; and secretory immunoglobulin A, SIgA). Using hierarchical regression, inflammation measured by CRP was positively associated with the negative mood/physical symptoms (NM/PS) subscale (β=0.23, t=2.33, p=0.022) of the CDI-2. A significant interaction effect of SIgA x adrenarcheal timing was found for NM/PS (β=-0.39, t=-2.19, p=0.031) and Interpersonal Problems (β=-0.47, t=-2.71, p=0.008). SIgA and NM/PS were positively associated for relatively late developers. SIgA and Interpersonal Problems were positively associated for late developers, and negatively associated for early developers. We suggest that both sets of findings might be partially explained by the immunosuppressive effect of the hormonal changes associated with earlier adrenarche, namely testosterone. These results also suggest that adrenarcheal timing has an effect on the association between depression and immunity, and is therefore an important measure in research with younger populations. Future research should utilize longitudinal designs to demonstrate direction of influence of variables, and use a broader range of pro- and anti-inflammatory markers.
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Mundy LK, Romaniuk H, Canterford L, Hearps S, Viner RM, Bayer JK, Simmons JG, Carlin JB, Allen NB, Patton GC. Adrenarche and the Emotional and Behavioral Problems of Late Childhood. J Adolesc Health 2015; 57:608-16. [PMID: 26592329 DOI: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2015.09.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2015] [Revised: 08/31/2015] [Accepted: 09/01/2015] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE Mental and behavioral disorders increase in prevalence with the passage through puberty. Yet the first symptoms for many children emerge between seven and 11 years, before the pubertal rise in gonadal hormones. A possibility that symptom onset may be linked to the adrenarchal rise in androgens has been little explored. METHODS The Childhood to Adolescence Transition Study recruited a stratified random sample of 1,239 eight-nine year olds from primary schools in Melbourne, Australia. Saliva samples were assayed for dehydroepiandrosterone, dehydroepiandrosterone-sulphate (DHEA-S), and testosterone. Emotional and behavioral problems were assessed through parental report on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. RESULTS In males, high levels of all androgens were associated with greater total difficulties and peer problems. Higher dehydroepiandrosterone and testosterone were associated with emotional symptoms and DHEA-S with conduct problems. In females, DHEA-S was associated with peer problems. CONCLUSIONS In late childhood, androgens are associated with emotional and behavioral problems in males, raising a possibility that the adrenarchal transition plays a contributing role. If so, the late primary school years may prove to be an important phase for preventing the onset of mental health and behavioral problems in boys.
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Murray CJL, Barber RM, Foreman KJ, Abbasoglu Ozgoren A, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abraham JP, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Achoki T, Ackerman IN, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Alam SS, Alasfoor D, Albittar MI, Alegretti MA, Alemu ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho R, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alla F, Allebeck P, Almazroa MA, Alsharif U, Alvarez E, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Ameh EA, Amini H, Ammar W, Anderson HR, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Arnlöv J, Arsic Arsenijevic VS, Artaman A, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atkins LS, Avila MA, Awuah B, Bachman VF, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barker-Collo SL, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu A, Basu S, Basulaiman MO, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bekele T, Bell ML, Benjet C, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Bernabé E, Bertozzi-Villa A, Beyene TJ, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhutta ZA, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Biryukov S, Blore JD, Blosser CD, Blyth FM, Bohensky MA, Bolliger IW, Bora Başara B, Bornstein NM, Bose D, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Boyers LN, Brainin M, Brayne CE, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Briggs AD, Brooks PM, Brown JC, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Buckle GC, Budke CM, Bulchis A, Bulloch AG, Campos-Nonato IR, Carabin H, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Çavlin A, Chadha VK, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chen H, Chen W, Chiang PP, Chimed-Ochir O, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christophi CA, Cirillo M, Coates MM, Coffeng LE, Coggeshall MS, Colistro V, Colquhoun SM, Cooke GS, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Coppola LM, Cortinovis M, Criqui MH, Crump JA, Cuevas-Nasu L, Danawi H, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dansereau E, Dargan PI, Davey G, Davis A, Davitoiu DV, Dayama A, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Del Pozo-Cruz B, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Derrett S, Des Jarlais DC, Dessalegn M, Dharmaratne SD, Dherani MK, Diaz-Torné C, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dokova K, Dorsey ER, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Duber HC, Ebel BE, Edmond KM, Elshrek YM, Endres M, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Faraon EJA, Farzadfar F, Fay DF, Feigin VL, Felson DT, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Fleming TD, Foigt N, Forouzanfar MH, Fowkes FGR, Paleo UF, Franklin RC, Fürst T, Gabbe B, Gaffikin L, Gankpé FG, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gething P, Gibney KB, Giroud M, Giussani G, Gomez Dantes H, Gona P, González-Medina D, Gosselin RA, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Graetz N, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gutiérrez RA, Haagsma J, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagan H, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamavid H, Hammami M, Hancock J, Hankey GJ, Hansen GM, Hao Y, Harb HL, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Hay SI, Hay RJ, Heredia-Pi IB, Heuton KR, Heydarpour P, Higashi H, Hijar M, Hoek HW, Hoffman HJ, Hosgood HD, Hossain M, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hu G, Huang C, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Huynh C, Iannarone ML, Iburg KM, Innos K, Inoue M, Islami F, Jacobsen KH, Jarvis DL, Jassal SK, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Karthikeyan G, Kassebaum NJ, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazanjan K, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Khader YS, Khalifa SEA, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Kieling C, Kim D, Kim S, Kim Y, Kinfu Y, Kinge JM, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kosen S, Krishnaswami S, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuipers EJ, Kulkarni C, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kyu HH, Lai T, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung R, Levitz CE, Li B, Li Y, Li Y, Lim SS, Lind M, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Lofgren KT, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lortet-Tieulent J, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Macintyre MF, Mackay MT, Majdan M, Malekzadeh R, Marcenes W, Margolis DJ, Margono C, Marzan MB, Masci JR, Mashal MT, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, Mazorodze TT, Mcgill NW, Mcgrath JJ, Mckee M, Mclain A, Meaney PA, Medina C, Mehndiratta MM, Mekonnen W, Melaku YA, Meltzer M, Memish ZA, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohamed Ibrahim N, Mohammad KA, Mokdad AH, Mola GLD, Monasta L, Montañez Hernandez JC, Montico M, Montine TJ, Mooney MD, Moore AR, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moran AE, Mori R, Moschandreas J, Moturi WN, Moyer ML, Mozaffarian D, Msemburi WT, Mueller UO, Mukaigawara M, Mullany EC, Murdoch ME, Murray J, Murthy KS, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nand D, Nangia V, Narayan KMV, Nejjari C, Neupane SP, Newton CR, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Nguyen G, Nisar MI, Nolte S, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Oh IH, Ohkubo T, Ohno SL, Olusanya BO, Opio JN, Ortblad K, Ortiz A, Pain AW, Pandian JD, Panelo CIA, Papachristou C, Park EK, Park JH, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paul VK, Pavlin BI, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Perez-Padilla R, Perez-Ruiz F, Perico N, Pervaiz A, Pesudovs K, Peterson CB, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Phillips BK, Phillips DE, Piel FB, Plass D, Poenaru D, Polinder S, Pope D, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Prasad NM, Pullan RL, Qato DM, Quistberg DA, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahman SU, Raju M, Rana SM, Razavi H, Reddy KS, Refaat A, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Richardson L, Richardus JH, Roberts DA, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Rothstein DH, Rowley JT, Roy N, Ruhago GM, Saeedi MY, Saha S, Sahraian MA, Sampson UKA, Sanabria JR, Sandar L, Santos IS, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Scarborough P, Schneider IJ, Schöttker B, Schumacher AE, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Serina PT, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shamah Levy T, Shangguan S, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shinohara Y, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh L, Skirbekk V, Slepak EL, Sliwa K, Soneji S, Søreide K, Soshnikov S, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stanaway JD, Stathopoulou V, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Steiner C, Steiner TJ, Stevens A, Stewart A, Stovner LJ, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Swaminathan S, Swaroop M, Sykes BL, Tabb KM, Takahashi K, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tanner M, Tavakkoli M, Taylor HR, Te Ao BJ, Tediosi F, Temesgen AM, Templin T, Ten Have M, Tenkorang EY, Terkawi AS, Thomson B, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tonelli M, Topouzis F, Toyoshima H, Traebert J, Tran BX, Trillini M, Truelsen T, Tsilimbaris M, Tuzcu EM, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uzun SB, Van Brakel WH, Van De Vijver S, van Gool CH, Van Os J, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Wagner J, Waller SG, Wan X, Wang H, Wang J, Wang L, Warouw TS, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Wenzhi W, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wilkinson JD, Williams TN, Wolfe CD, Wolock TM, Woolf AD, Wulf S, Wurtz B, Xu G, Yan LL, Yano Y, Ye P, Yentür GK, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaki ME, Zhao Y, Zheng Y, Zonies D, Zou X, Salomon JA, Lopez AD, Vos T. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition. Lancet 2015; 386:2145-91. [PMID: 26321261 PMCID: PMC4673910 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(15)61340-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1284] [Impact Index Per Article: 142.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. METHODS We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. FINDINGS Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. INTERPRETATION Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Degenhardt L, Romaniuk H, Coffey C, Hall WD, Swift W, Carlin JB, O'Loughlin C, Patton GC. Does the social context of early alcohol use affect risky drinking in adolescents? Prospective cohort study. BMC Public Health 2015; 15:1137. [PMID: 26572739 PMCID: PMC4647618 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-015-2443-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2014] [Accepted: 10/23/2015] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND There are limited longitudinal data on the associations between different social contexts of alcohol use and risky adolescent drinking. METHODS Australian prospective longitudinal cohort of 1943 adolescents with 6 assessment waves at ages 14-17 years. Drinkers were asked where and how frequently they drank. Contexts were: at home with family, at home alone, at a party with friends, in a park/car, or at a bar/nightclub. The outcomes were prevalence and incidence of risky drinking (≥5 standard drinks (10g alcohol) on a day, past week) and very risky drinking (>20 standard drinks for males and >11 for females) in early (waves 1-2) and late (waves 3-6) adolescence. RESULTS Forty-four percent (95 % CI: 41-46 %) reported past-week risky drinking on at least one wave during adolescence (waves 1-6). Drinking at a party was the most common repeated drinking context in early adolescence (28 %, 95 % CI 26-30 %); 15 % reported drinking repeatedly (3+ times) with their family in early adolescence (95 % CI: 14-17 %). For all contexts (including drinking with family), drinking 3+ times in a given context was associated with increased the risk of risky drinking in later adolescence. These effects remained apparent after adjustment for potential confounders (e.g. for drinking with family, adjusted RR 1.9; 95 % CI: 1.5-2.4). Similar patterns were observed for very risky drinking. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that consumption with family does not protect against risky drinking. Furthermore, parents who wish to minimise high risk drinking by their adolescent children might also limit their children's opportunities to consume alcohol in unsupervised settings.
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Heerde JA, Toumbourou JW, Hemphill SA, Herrenkohl TI, Patton GC, Catalano RF. Incidence and Course of Adolescent Deliberate Self-Harm in Victoria, Australia, and Washington State. J Adolesc Health 2015; 57:537-44. [PMID: 26499859 PMCID: PMC4621461 DOI: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2015.07.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2014] [Revised: 07/22/2015] [Accepted: 07/23/2015] [Indexed: 12/26/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE There have been few longitudinal studies of deliberate self-harm (DSH) in adolescents. This cross-national longitudinal study outlines risk and protective factors for DSH incidence and persistence. METHODS Seventh and ninth grade students (average ages 13 and 15 years) were recruited as state-representative cohorts, surveyed, and then followed up 12 months later (N = 3,876), using the same methods in Washington State and Victoria, Australia. The retention rate was 99% in both states at follow-up. A range of risk and protective factors for DSH were examined using multivariate analyses. RESULTS The prevalence of DSH in the past year was 1.53% in Grade 7 and .91% in Grade 9 for males and 4.12% and 1.34% for Grade 7 and Grade 9 females, respectively, with similar rates across states. In multivariate analyses, incident DSH was lower in Washington State (odds ratio [OR] = .67; 95% confidence interval [CI] = .45-1.00) relative to Victoria 12 months later. Risk factors for incident DSH included being female (OR = 1.93; CI = 1.35-2.76), high depressive symptoms (OR = 3.52; CI = 2.37-5.21), antisocial behavior (OR = 2.42; CI = 1.46-4.00), and lifetime (OR = 1.85; CI = 1.11-3.08) and past month (OR = 2.70; CI = 1.57-4.64) alcohol use relative to never using alcohol. CONCLUSIONS Much self-harm in adolescents resolves over the course of 12 months. Young people who self-harm have high rates of other health risk behaviors associated with family and peer risks that may all be targets for preventive intervention.
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Patton GC, Romaniuk H, Spry E, Coffey C, Olsson C, Doyle LW, Oats J, Hearps S, Carlin JB, Brown S. Prediction of perinatal depression from adolescence and before conception (VIHCS): 20-year prospective cohort study. Lancet 2015; 386:875-83. [PMID: 26072108 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(14)62248-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 80] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Perinatal depression is a neglected global health priority, affecting 10-15% of women in high-income countries and a greater proportion in low-income countries. Outcomes for children include cognitive, behavioural, and emotional difficulties and, in low-income settings, perinatal depression is associated with stunting and physical illness. In the Victorian Intergenerational Health Cohort Study (VIHCS), we aimed to assess the extent to which women with perinatal depressive symptoms had a history of mental health problems before conception. METHODS VIHCS is a follow-up study of participants in the Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study (VAHCS), which was initiated in August, 1992, in the state of Victoria, Australia. In VAHCS, participants were assessed for health outcomes at nine timepoints (waves) from age 14 years to age 29 years. Depressive symptoms were measured with the Revised Clinical Interview Schedule and the General Health Questionnaire. Enrolment to VIHCS began in September, 2006, during the ninth wave of VAHCS; depressive symptoms at this timepoint were measured with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. We contacted women every 6 months (from age 29 years to age 35 years) to identify any pregnancies. We assessed perinatal depressive symptoms with the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) by computer-assisted telephone interview at 32 weeks of gestation, 8 weeks after birth, and 12 months after birth. We defined perinatal depression as an EPDS score of 10 or more. FINDINGS From a stratified random sample of 1000 female participants in VAHCS, we enrolled 384 women with 564 pregnancies. 253 (66%) of these women had a previous history of mental health problems at some point in adolescence or young adulthood. 117 women with a history of mental health problems in both adolescence and young adulthood had 168 pregnancies, and perinatal depressive symptoms were reported for 57 (34%) of these pregnancies, compared with 16 (8%) of 201 pregnancies in 131 women with no preconception history of mental health problems (adjusted odds ratio 8·36, 95% CI 3·34-20·87). Perinatal depressive symptoms were reported at one or more assessment points in 109 pregnancies; a preconception history of mental health problems was reported in 93 (85%) of these pregnancies. INTERPRETATION Perinatal depressive symptoms are mostly preceded by mental health problems that begin before pregnancy, in adolescence or young adulthood. Women with a history of persisting common mental disorders before pregnancy are an identifiable high-risk group, deserving of clinical support throughout the childbearing years. Furthermore, the window for considering preventive intervention for perinatal depression should extend to the time before conception. FUNDING National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia), Victorian Health Promotion Foundation, Colonial Foundation, Australian Rotary Health Research and Perpetual Trustees.
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Tian J, Venn AJ, Blizzard L, Patton GC, Dwyer T, Gall SL. Smoking status and health-related quality of life: a longitudinal study in young adults. Qual Life Res 2015; 25:669-85. [PMID: 26310284 DOI: 10.1007/s11136-015-1112-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/18/2015] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE The possibility that tobacco use affects health-related quality of life (HRQoL) has attracted interest. However, a lack of prospective evidence weakens the case for a causal relationship. The aim was to examine the longitudinal relationship between change in smoking status and change in HRQoL in young adults. METHODS We conducted a population-based cohort study with data collected in 2004-2006 (aged 26-36) and 2009-2011 (aged 31-41). Exposure was change in self-reported smoking status during follow-up. Outcomes were changes in physical and mental HRQoL measured by SF-12. RESULTS For physical HRQoL (n = 2080), quitters had a 2.12 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.73, 3.51) point improvement than continuing smokers, whereas former smokers who resumed smoking had a 2.08 (95 % CI 0.21, 3.94) point reduction than those who maintained cessation. Resumed smokers were 39 % (95 % CI 10, 75 %) more likely to have a clinically significant (>5 point) reduction of physical HRQoL than former smokers who maintained cessation. In contrast, quitters were 43 % (95 % CI 3, 98 %) more likely to have a clinically significant (>5 point) improvement in physical HRQoL than continuing smokers. Change in smoking status was not significantly associated with change in mental HRQoL (n = 1788). CONCLUSIONS Smoking by young adults was cross-sectionally associated with lower physical HRQoL and longitudinally associated with reductions in physical HRQoL. The expectation of short- to medium-term gains in physical HRQoL as well as long-term health benefits may help motivate young adult smokers to quit.
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Salom CL, Kelly AB, Alati R, Williams GM, Patton GC, Williams JW. Individual, school-related and family characteristics distinguish co-occurrence of drinking and depressive symptoms in very young adolescents. Drug Alcohol Rev 2015; 35:387-96. [PMID: 26121621 DOI: 10.1111/dar.12303] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2014] [Accepted: 05/20/2015] [Indexed: 01/22/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION AND AIMS Alcohol misuse and depressed mood are common during early adolescence, and comorbidity of these conditions in adulthood is associated with poorer health and social outcomes, yet little research has examined the co-occurrence of these problems at early adolescence. This study assessed risky and protective characteristics of pre-teens with concurrent depressed mood/early alcohol use in a large school-based sample. DESIGN AND METHODS School children aged 10-14 years (n = 7289) from late primary and early secondary school classes in government, Catholic and independent sectors participated with parental consent in the cross-sectional Healthy Neighbourhoods Study. Key measures included depressed mood, recent alcohol use, school mobility, family relationship quality, school engagement and coping style. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were used to identify school and family-related factors that distinguished those with co-occurring drinking and depressive symptoms from those with either single condition. Gender and school-level interactions for each factor were evaluated. RESULTS Co-occurring conditions were reported by 5.7% of students [confidence interval (CI)95 5.19, 6.19]. Recent drinkers were more likely than non-drinkers to have symptoms consistent with depression (odds ratio 1.80; CI95 1.58, 2.03). Low school commitment was associated with co-occurring drinking/depressive symptoms (odds ratio 2.86; CI95 2.25, 3.65 compared with null condition). This association appeared to be weaker in the presence of adaptive stress-coping skills (odds ratio 0.18; CI95 0.14, 0.23). CONCLUSIONS We have identified factors that distinguish pre-teens with very early co-occurrence of drinking and depressed mood, and protective factors with potential utility for school-based prevention programmes targeting these conditions. [Salom CL, Kelly AB, Alati R, Williams GM, Patton GC, Williams JW. Individual, school-related and family characteristics distinguish co-occurrence of drinking and depressive symptoms in very young adolescents. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:387-396].
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Kelly AB, Evans-Whipp TJ, Smith R, Chan GCK, Toumbourou JW, Patton GC, Hemphill SA, Hall WD, Catalano RF. A longitudinal study of the association of adolescent polydrug use, alcohol use and high school non-completion. Addiction 2015; 110:627-35. [PMID: 25510264 PMCID: PMC4361375 DOI: 10.1111/add.12829] [Citation(s) in RCA: 108] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2014] [Revised: 09/29/2014] [Accepted: 12/03/2014] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
AIMS Failure to complete high school predicts substantial economic and social disadvantage in adult life. The aim of this study was to determine the longitudinal association of mid-adolescent polydrug use and high school non-completion, relative to other drug use profiles. DESIGN A longitudinal analysis of the relationship between polydrug use in three cohorts at grade 9 (age 14-15 years) and school non-completion (reported post-high school). SETTING A State-representative sample of students across Victoria, Australia. PARTICIPANTS A total of 2287 secondary school students from 152 high schools. The retention rate was 85%. MEASUREMENTS The primary outcome was non-completion of grade 12 (assessed at age 19-23 years). At grade 9, predictors included 30-day use of eight drugs, school commitment, academic failure and peer drug use. Other controls included socio-economic status, family relationship quality, depressive symptoms, gender, age and cohort. FINDINGS Three distinct classes of drug use were identified-no drug use (31.7%), mainly alcohol use (61.8%) and polydrug use (6.5%). Polydrug users were characterized by high rates of alcohol, tobacco and cannabis use. In the full model, mainly alcohol users and polydrug users were less likely to complete school than non-drug users [odds ratio (OR) = 1.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.17-2.03) and OR = 2.51, 95% CI = 1.45-4.33), respectively, P < 0.001]. These effects were independent of school commitment, academic failure, peer drug use and other controls. CONCLUSIONS Mid-adolescent polydrug use in Australia predicts subsequent school non-completion after accounting for a range of potential confounding factors. Adolescents who mainly consume alcohol are also at elevated risk of school non-completion.
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Hutchinson DM, Silins E, Mattick RP, Patton GC, Fergusson DM, Hayatbakhsh R, Toumbourou JW, Olsson CA, Najman JM, Spry E, Tait RJ, Degenhardt L, Swift W, Butterworth P, Horwood LJ. How can data harmonisation benefit mental health research? An example of The Cannabis Cohorts Research Consortium. Aust N Z J Psychiatry 2015; 49:317-23. [PMID: 25747858 DOI: 10.1177/0004867415571169] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
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Whittle S, Simmons JG, Byrne ML, Strikwerda-Brown C, Kerestes R, Seal ML, Olsson CA, Dudgeon P, Mundy LK, Patton GC, Allen NB. Associations between early adrenarche, affective brain function and mental health in children. Soc Cogn Affect Neurosci 2015; 10:1282-90. [PMID: 25678548 DOI: 10.1093/scan/nsv014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/12/2014] [Accepted: 02/09/2015] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Early timing of adrenarche, associated with relatively high levels of Dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) in children, has been associated with mental health and behavioral problems. However, little is known about effects of adreneracheal timing on brain function. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of early adrenarche (defined by high DHEA levels independent of age) on affective brain function and symptoms of psychopathology in late childhood (N = 83, 43 females, M age 9.53 years, s.d. 0.34 years). Results showed that higher DHEA levels were associated with decreased affect-related brain activity (i) in the mid-cingulate cortex in the whole sample, and (ii) in a number of cortical and subcortical regions in female but not male children. Higher DHEA levels were also associated with increased externalizing symptoms in females, an association that was partly mediated by posterior insula activation to happy facial expressions. These results suggest that timing of adrenarche is an important moderator of affect-related brain function, and that this may be one mechanism linking early adrenarche to psychopathology.
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Klauser P, Whittle S, Simmons JG, Byrne ML, Mundy LK, Patton GC, Fornito A, Allen NB. Reduced frontal white matter volume in children with early onset of adrenarche. Psychoneuroendocrinology 2015; 52:111-8. [PMID: 25459897 DOI: 10.1016/j.psyneuen.2014.10.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2014] [Revised: 10/21/2014] [Accepted: 10/21/2014] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
While there is growing evidence that puberty affects brain development, very little is known about the structural brain changes associated with dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), an adrenal hormone that exhibits dramatic increases during adrenarche, the earliest phase of puberty. Moreover, no research has investigated whether relatively early exposure to DHEA (i.e., early adrenarche) during this period is associated with differences in brain structure. We ran a whole-brain voxel-based morphometry analysis on T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging brain scans to compare gray (GMV) and white matter volumes (WMV) between children experiencing relatively early (n=41) vs. relatively late (n=44) adrenarche. We also investigated the correlations between GMV or WMV and DHEA levels, and finally, tested for sex differences in group and correlation analyses. We observed reduced frontal WMV in a cluster located on the left corona radiata in children experiencing earlier adrenarche. In addition, WMV in this area was negatively correlated with DHEA levels. We did not observe any effect of gender in both the group and the correlation analyses. Early onset of adrenarche (as defined by relatively early exposure to DHEA) may be associated with differences in the development of frontal white matter tracts.
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Moran P, Coffey C, Romaniuk H, Degenhardt L, Borschmann R, Patton GC. Substance use in adulthood following adolescent self-harm: a population-based cohort study. Acta Psychiatr Scand 2015; 131:61-8. [PMID: 24954250 PMCID: PMC4293154 DOI: 10.1111/acps.12306] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/02/2014] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To determine whether adolescents who self-harm are at increased risk of heavy and dependent substance use in adulthood. METHOD Fifteen-year prospective cohort study of a random sample of 1943 adolescents recruited from secondary schools across the state of Victoria, Australia. Data pertaining to self-harm and substance use was obtained at seven waves of follow-up, from mean age 15.9 years to mean age 29.1 years. RESULTS Substance use and self-harm were strongly associated during the adolescent years (odds ratio (OR): 3.3, 95% CI 2.1-5.0). Moreover, adolescent self-harmers were at increased risk of substance use and dependence syndromes in young adulthood. Self-harm predicted a four-fold increase in the odds of multiple dependence syndromes (sex- and wave-adjusted OR: 4.2, 95% CI: 2.7-6.6). Adjustment for adolescent anxiety/depression attenuated but did not eliminate most associations. Adolescent substance use confounded all associations, with the exception of multiple dependence syndromes, which remained robustly associated with adolescent self-harm (fully adjusted odds ratio: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.2-3.2). CONCLUSION Adolescent self-harm is an independent risk factor for multiple dependence syndromes in adulthood. This level of substance misuse is likely to contribute substantially to the premature mortality and disease burden experienced by individuals who self-harm.
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McKercher C, Sanderson K, Schmidt MD, Otahal P, Patton GC, Dwyer T, Venn AJ. Physical activity patterns and risk of depression in young adulthood: a 20-year cohort study since childhood. Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol 2014; 49:1823-34. [PMID: 24626994 DOI: 10.1007/s00127-014-0863-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2013] [Accepted: 02/28/2014] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE Little is known about how physical activity patterns during childhood and adolescence are associated with risk of subsequent depression. We examined prospective and retrospective associations between leisure physical activity patterns from childhood to adulthood and risk of clinical depression in young adulthood. METHODS Participants (759 males, 871 females) in a national survey, aged 9-15 years, were re-interviewed approximately 20 years later. Leisure physical activity was self-reported at baseline (1985) and follow-up (2004-2006). To bridge the interval between the two time-points, historical leisure activity from age 15 years to adulthood was self-reported retrospectively at follow-up. Physical activity was categorized into groups that, from a public health perspective, compared patterns that were least beneficial (persistently inactive) with those increasingly beneficial (decreasing, increasing and persistently active). Depression (major depressive or dysthymic disorder) was assessed using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. RESULTS Compared with those persistently inactive, males who were increasingly and persistently active had a 69 and 65 % reduced risk of depression in adulthood, respectively (all p < 0.05). In retrospective analyses, females who were persistently active had a 51 % reduced risk of depression in adulthood (p = 0.01). Similar but non-significant trends were observed for leisure physical activity in females and historical leisure activity in males. Results excluded those with childhood onset of depression and were adjusted for various sociodemographic and health covariates. CONCLUSIONS Findings from both prospective and retrospective analyses indicate a beneficial effect of habitual discretionary physical activity since childhood on risk of depression in young adulthood.
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Romaniuk H, Patton GC, Carlin JB. Multiple imputation in a longitudinal cohort study: a case study of sensitivity to imputation methods. Am J Epidemiol 2014; 180:920-32. [PMID: 25301814 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwu224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Multiple imputation has entered mainstream practice for the analysis of incomplete data. We have used it extensively in a large Australian longitudinal cohort study, the Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study (1992-2008). Although we have endeavored to follow best practices, there is little published advice on this, and we have not previously examined the extent to which variations in our approach might lead to different results. Here, we examined sensitivity of analytical results to imputation decisions, investigating choice of imputation method, inclusion of auxiliary variables, omission of cases with excessive missing data, and approaches for imputing highly skewed continuous distributions that are analyzed as dichotomous variables. Overall, we found that decisions made about imputation approach had a discernible but rarely dramatic impact for some types of estimates. For model-based estimates of association, the choice of imputation method and decisions made to build the imputation model had little effect on results, whereas estimates of overall prevalence and prevalence stratified by subgroup were more sensitive to imputation method and settings. Multiple imputation by chained equations gave more plausible results than multivariate normal imputation for prevalence estimates but appeared to be more susceptible to numerical instability related to a highly skewed variable.
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Li HK, Kelly AB, Chan GCK, Toumbourou JW, Patton GC, Williams JW. The association of puberty and young adolescent alcohol use: do parents have a moderating role? Addict Behav 2014; 39:1389-93. [PMID: 24922528 DOI: 10.1016/j.addbeh.2014.05.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2014] [Revised: 05/08/2014] [Accepted: 05/19/2014] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE To explore the extent to which parent-adolescent emotional closeness, family conflict, and parental permissiveness moderate the association of puberty and alcohol use in adolescents (aged 10-14). METHODS Cross-sectional survey of 7631 adolescents from 231 Australian schools. Measures included pubertal status, recent (30day) alcohol use, parent-adolescent emotional closeness, family conflict, parental permissiveness of alcohol use and peer alcohol use. The analysis was based on a two-level (individuals nested within schools) logistic regression model, with main effects entered first, and interaction terms added second. RESULTS The interaction of family factors and pubertal stage did not improve the fit of the model, so a main effect model of family factors and pubertal stage was adopted. There were significant main effects for pubertal stage with boys in middle puberty at increased odds of alcohol use, and girls in advanced puberty at increased odds of alcohol use. CONCLUSIONS Puberty and family factors were strong predictors of adolescent alcohol use, but family factors did not account for variation in the association of pubertal stage and alcohol use.
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Sawyer SM, Ambresin AE, Bennett KE, Patton GC. A measurement framework for quality health care for adolescents in hospital. J Adolesc Health 2014; 55:484-90. [PMID: 24698286 DOI: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2014.01.023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2013] [Revised: 01/29/2014] [Accepted: 01/29/2014] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE Despite growing interest in measurement of health care quality and patient experience, the current evidence base largely derives from adult health settings, at least in part because of the absence of appropriately developed measurement tools for adolescents. To rectify this, we set out to develop a conceptual framework and a set of indicators to measure the quality of health care delivered to adolescents in hospital. METHODS A conceptual framework was developed from the following four elements: (1) a review of the evidence around what young people perceive as "adolescent-friendly" health care; (2) an exploration with adolescent patients of the principles of patient-centered care; (3) a scoping review to identify core clinical practices around working with adolescents; and (4) a scoping review of existing conceptual frameworks. Using criteria for indicator development, we then developed a set of indicators that mapped to this framework. RESULTS Embedded within the notion of patient- and family-centered care, the conceptual framework for adolescent-friendly health care (quality health care for adolescents) was based on the constructs of experience of care (positive engagement with health care) and evidence-informed care. A set of 14 indicators was developed, half of which related to adolescents' and parents' experience of care and half of which related to aspects of evidence-informed care. CONCLUSIONS The conceptual framework and indicators of quality health care for adolescents set the stage to develop measures to populate these indicators, the next step in the agenda of improving the quality of health care delivered to adolescents in hospital settings.
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Viner RM, Hargreaves DS, Coffey C, Patton GC, Wolfe I. Deaths in young people aged 0-24 years in the UK compared with the EU15+ countries, 1970-2008: analysis of the WHO Mortality Database. Lancet 2014; 384:880-92. [PMID: 24929452 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(14)60485-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Concern is growing that mortality and health in children and young people in the UK lags behind that of similar countries. METHODS We analysed death registry data provided to the WHO Mortality Database to compare UK mortality for children and young people aged 0-24 years with that of European Union member states (before May, 2004, excluding the UK, plus Australia, Canada, and Norway [the EU15+ countries]) from 1970 to 2008 using the WHO World Mortality Database. We grouped causes of death by Global Burden of Disease classification: communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; non-communicable disorders; and injury. UK mortality trends were compared with quartiles of mortality in EU15+ countries. We used quasi-likelihood Poisson models to explore differences between intercepts and slopes between the UK and the EU15+ countries. FINDINGS In 1970, UK total mortality was in the best EU15+ quartile (<25th centile) for children and young people aged 1-24 years, with UK infant mortality similar to the EU15+ median. Subsequent mortality reductions in the UK were smaller than were those in the EU15+ countries in all age groups. By 2008, total mortality for neonates, infants, and children aged 1-4 years in the UK was in the worst EU15+ quartile (>75th centile). In 2008, UK annual excess mortality compared with the EU15+ median was 1035 deaths for infants and 134 for children aged 1-9 years. Mortality from non-communicable diseases in the UK fell from being roughly equivalent to the EU15+ median in 1970 to the worst quartile in all age groups by 2008, with 446 annual excess deaths from non-communicable diseases in the UK (280 for young people aged 10-24 years) in 2008. UK mortality from injury remained in the best EU15+ quartile for the study period in all age groups. INTERPRETATION The UK has not matched the gains made in child, adolescent, and young adult mortality by other comparable countries in the 40 years since 1970, particularly for infant deaths and mortality from non-communicable diseases, including neuropsychiatric disorders. The UK needs to identify and address amenable social determinants and health system factors that lead to poor health outcomes for infants and for children and young people with chronic disorders. FUNDING None.
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Silins E, Horwood LJ, Patton GC, Fergusson DM, Olsson CA, Hutchinson DM, Spry E, Toumbourou JW, Degenhardt L, Swift W, Coffey C, Tait RJ, Letcher P, Copeland J, Mattick RP. Young adult sequelae of adolescent cannabis use: an integrative analysis. Lancet Psychiatry 2014; 1:286-93. [PMID: 26360862 DOI: 10.1016/s2215-0366(14)70307-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 282] [Impact Index Per Article: 28.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Debate continues about the consequences of adolescent cannabis use. Existing data are limited in statistical power to examine rarer outcomes and less common, heavier patterns of cannabis use than those already investigated; furthermore, evidence has a piecemeal approach to reporting of young adult sequelae. We aimed to provide a broad picture of the psychosocial sequelae of adolescent cannabis use. METHODS We integrated participant-level data from three large, long-running longitudinal studies from Australia and New Zealand: the Australian Temperament Project, the Christchurch Health and Development Study, and the Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study. We investigated the association between the maximum frequency of cannabis use before age 17 years (never, less than monthly, monthly or more, weekly or more, or daily) and seven developmental outcomes assessed up to age 30 years (high-school completion, attainment of university degree, cannabis dependence, use of other illicit drugs, suicide attempt, depression, and welfare dependence). The number of participants varied by outcome (N=2537 to N=3765). FINDINGS We recorded clear and consistent associations and dose-response relations between the frequency of adolescent cannabis use and all adverse young adult outcomes. After covariate adjustment, compared with individuals who had never used cannabis, those who were daily users before age 17 years had clear reductions in the odds of high-school completion (adjusted odds ratio 0·37, 95% CI 0·20-0·66) and degree attainment (0·38, 0·22-0·66), and substantially increased odds of later cannabis dependence (17·95, 9·44-34·12), use of other illicit drugs (7·80, 4·46-13·63), and suicide attempt (6·83, 2·04-22·90). INTERPRETATION Adverse sequelae of adolescent cannabis use are wide ranging and extend into young adulthood. Prevention or delay of cannabis use in adolescence is likely to have broad health and social benefits. Efforts to reform cannabis legislation should be carefully assessed to ensure they reduce adolescent cannabis use and prevent potentially adverse developmental effects. FUNDING Australian Government National Health and Medical Research Council.
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Kinner SA, Degenhardt L, Coffey C, Hearps S, Spittal M, Sawyer SM, Patton GC. Substance use and risk of death in young offenders: a prospective data linkage study. Drug Alcohol Rev 2014; 34:46-50. [PMID: 25066461 DOI: 10.1111/dar.12179] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2014] [Accepted: 05/28/2014] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION AND AIMS Young offenders are at increased risk of preventable death after release from custody, but risk factors for death in this population are poorly understood. Despite their poor health profiles, no studies have examined mortality outcomes in young people who have served community-based orders. The aims of this study were to describe the causes and identify risk factors for death in a cohort of young offenders in Victoria, Australia. DESIGN AND METHODS We interviewed young people serving a custodial (n = 273) or community-based order (n = 242) in Victoria, Australia in 2002-2003. Measures included demographics and family history, offence history, experience of victimisation, mental illness, self-harm and substance use. Deaths up to 31 December 2011 were identified through a probabilistic linkage with the National Death Index. RESULTS The all-cause crude mortality rate was 4.2 (95% confidence interval 2.7-6.8) per 1000 person years and was not significantly different for those who had served custodial and community-based orders. Most deaths were due to drug overdose, traffic accidents or suicide. Adjusting for age, sex and order type, risk factors for death from the baseline interview included weekly use of opioids, sleeping pills or painkillers, polydrug use and injecting drug use. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS Young people who have served community-based and custodial orders are at an increased risk of preventable death. Those engaging in risky substance use, particularly injecting drug use and use of multiple central nervous system depressants, are at greatest risk. There is an urgent need to develop and rigorously evaluate preventive interventions.
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Olsson CA, Horwill E, Moore E, Eisenberg ME, Venn A, O'Loughlin C, Patton GC. Social and emotional adjustment following early pregnancy in young Australian women: a comparison of those who terminate, miscarry, or complete pregnancy. J Adolesc Health 2014; 54:698-703. [PMID: 24438851 DOI: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2013.10.203] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2013] [Revised: 10/25/2013] [Accepted: 10/25/2013] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE To compare social and emotional adjustment including educational attainment and substance use in women who had a child, pregnancy termination, or miscarriage by young adulthood. METHODS Data were from a population-based longitudinal study of the health and well-being of 1,943 young Australians (Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study) followed from 15 to 24 years of age. The sample was restricted to female participants and based on pregnancies reported by age 24 years. Analyses were adjusted for early teenage depressive symptoms, cigarette smoking, alcohol use, cannabis use, and parent socioeconomic context. RESULTS A total of 208 pregnancies (in 170 women) were reported from a sample of 824 young women by 24 years of age. Compared with those who had never been pregnant, those who had a child had lower tertiary education completion and a higher risk of nicotine dependence; those who terminated a pregnancy were more commonly single and had a higher risk of smoking and alcohol use as well as nicotine and alcohol dependence; and those who had a miscarriage had a higher risk of depressive symptomatology and binge drinking as well as nicotine and cannabis dependence. CONCLUSIONS Young women who have been pregnant by their mid-twenties report a range of difficulties in social and emotional adjustment that vary across the different pregnancy outcomes. Broad-based psychosocial health care is essential not only for young women whose pregnancies proceed to live birth, but also for those whose pregnancies end with miscarriage or induced abortion.
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Simmons JG, Whittle SL, Patton GC, Dudgeon P, Olsson C, Byrne ML, Mundy LK, Seal ML, Allen NB. Study protocol: imaging brain development in the Childhood to Adolescence Transition Study (iCATS). BMC Pediatr 2014; 14:115. [PMID: 24779869 PMCID: PMC4012090 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2431-14-115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2014] [Accepted: 04/09/2014] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Puberty is a critical developmental phase in physical, reproductive and socio-emotional maturation that is associated with the period of peak onset for psychopathology. Puberty also drives significant changes in brain development and function. Research to date has focused on gonadarche, driven by the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis, and yet increasing evidence suggests that the earlier pubertal stage of adrenarche, driven by the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, may play a critical role in both brain development and increased risk for disorder. We have established a unique cohort of children who differ in their exposure to adrenarcheal hormones. This presents a unique opportunity to examine the influence of adrenarcheal timing on brain structural and functional development, and subsequent health outcomes. The primary objective of the study is to explore the hypothesis that patterns of structural and functional brain development will mediate the relationship between adrenarcheal timing and indices of affect, self-regulation, and mental health symptoms collected across time (and therefore years of development). Methods/Design Children were recruited based upon earlier or later timing of adrenarche, from a larger cohort, with 128 children (68 female; M age 9.51 years) and one of their parents taking part. Children completed brain MRI structural and functional sequences, provided saliva samples for adrenarcheal hormones and immune biomarkers, hair for long-term cortisol levels, and completed questionnaires, anthropometric measures and an IQ test. Parents completed questionnaires reporting on child behaviour, development, health, traumatic events, and parental report of family environment and parenting style. Discussion This study, by examining the neurobiological and behavioural consequences of relatively early and late exposure to adrenarche, has the potential to significantly impact our understanding of pubertal risk processes.
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Patton GC, Coffey C, Romaniuk H, Mackinnon A, Carlin JB, Degenhardt L, Olsson CA, Moran P. The prognosis of common mental disorders in adolescents: a 14-year prospective cohort study. Lancet 2014; 383:1404-11. [PMID: 24439298 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(13)62116-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 291] [Impact Index Per Article: 29.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Most adults with common mental disorders report their first symptoms before 24 years of age. Although adolescent anxiety and depression are frequent, little clarity exists about which syndromes persist into adulthood or resolve before then. In this report, we aim to describe the patterns and predictors of persistence into adulthood. METHODS We recruited a stratified, random sample of 1943 adolescents from 44 secondary schools across the state of Victoria, Australia. Between August, 1992, and January, 2008, we assessed common mental disorder at five points in adolescence and three in young adulthood, commencing at a mean age of 15.5 years and ending at a mean age of 29.1 years. Adolescent disorders were defined on the Revised Clinical Interview Schedule (CIS-R) at five adolescent measurement points, with a primary cutoff score of 12 or higher representing a level at which a family doctor would be concerned. Secondary analyses addressed more severe disorders at a cutoff of 18 or higher. FINDINGS 236 of 821 (29%; 95% CI 25-32) male participants and 498 of 929 (54%; 51-57) female participants reported high symptoms on the CIS-R (≥12) at least once during adolescence. Almost 60% (434/734) went on to report a further episode as a young adult. However, for adolescents with one episode of less than 6 months duration, just over half had no further common mental health disorder as a young adult. Longer duration of mental health disorders in adolescence was the strongest predictor of clear-cut young adult disorder (odds ratio [OR] for persistent young adult disorder vs none 3.16, 95% CI 1.86-5.37). Girls (2.12, 1.29-3.48) and adolescents with a background of parental separation or divorce (1.62, 1.03-2.53) also had a greater likelihood of having ongoing disorder into young adulthood than did those without such a background. Rates of adolescent onset disorder dropped sharply by the late 20s (0.57, 0.45-0.73), suggesting a further resolution for many patients whose symptoms had persisted into the early 20s. INTERPRETATION Episodes of adolescent mental disorder often precede mental disorders in young adults. However, many such disorders, especially when brief in duration, are limited to the teenage years, with further symptom remission common in the late 20s. The resolution of many adolescent disorders gives reason for optimism that interventions that shorten the duration of episodes could prevent much morbidity later in life. FUNDING Australia's National Health and Medical Research Council.
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Hemphill SA, Tollit MA, Romaniuk H, Williams J, Toumbourou JW, Bond L, Patton GC. Carrying weapons and intent to harm among Victorian secondary school students in 1999 and 2009. Med J Aust 2013; 199:769-71. [PMID: 24329654 DOI: 10.5694/mja12.11645] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2012] [Accepted: 07/08/2013] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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Mundy LK, Simmons JG, Allen NB, Viner RM, Bayer JK, Olds T, Williams J, Olsson C, Romaniuk H, Mensah F, Sawyer SM, Degenhardt L, Alati R, Wake M, Jacka F, Patton GC. Study protocol: the Childhood to Adolescence Transition Study (CATS). BMC Pediatr 2013; 13:160. [PMID: 24103080 PMCID: PMC3852285 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2431-13-160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2013] [Accepted: 10/04/2013] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Puberty is a multifaceted developmental process that begins in late-childhood with a cascade of endocrine changes that ultimately lead to sexual maturation and reproductive capability. The transition through puberty is marked by an increased risk for the onset of a range of health problems, particularly those related to the control of behaviour and emotion. Early onset puberty is associated with a greater risk of cancers of the reproductive tract and cardiovascular disease. Previous studies have had methodological limitations and have tended to view puberty as a unitary process, with little distinction between adrenarche, gonadarche and linear growth. The Childhood to Adolescence Transition Study (CATS) aims to prospectively examine associations between the timing and stage of the different hormonally-mediated changes, as well as the onset and course of common health and behavioural problems that emerge in the transition from childhood to adolescence. The initial focus of CATS is on adrenarche, the first hormonal process in the pubertal cascade, which begins for most children at around 8 years of age. Methods/Design CATS is a longitudinal population-based cohort study. All Grade 3 students (8–9 years of age) from a stratified cluster sample of schools in Melbourne, Australia were invited to take part. In total, 1239 students and a parent/guardian were recruited to participate in the study. Measures are repeated annually and comprise student, parent and teacher questionnaires, and student anthropometric measurements. A saliva sample was collected from students at baseline and will be repeated at later waves, with the primary purpose of measuring hormonal indices of adrenarche and gonadarche. Discussion CATS is uniquely placed to capture biological and phenotypic indices of the pubertal process from its earliest manifestations, together with anthropometric measures and assessment of child health and development. The cohort will provide rich detail of the development, lifestyle, external circumstances and health of children during the transition from childhood through to adolescence. Baseline associations between the hormonal measures and measures of mental health and behaviour will initially be examined cross-sectionally, and then in later waves longitudinally. CATS will make a unique contribution to the understanding of adrenarche and puberty in children’s health and development.
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Azzopardi PS, Kennedy EC, Patton GC, Power R, Roseby RD, Sawyer SM, Brown AD. The quality of health research for young Indigenous Australians: systematic review. Med J Aust 2013; 199:57-63. [PMID: 23829266 DOI: 10.5694/mja12.11141] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To assess the extent and quality of the evidence base related to the health and wellbeing of young Indigenous Australians. STUDY DESIGN Systematic review of peer-reviewed literature; grading of quality of literature; mapping of sample characteristics and study foci. DATA SOURCES English language publications, 1 Jan 1994 - 1 Jan 2011 in MEDLINE, ERIC, CINAHL, EMBASE, ATSIhealth, PsycINFO, the Cochrane Library and the Australian Indigenous HealthInfoNet. STUDY SELECTION Inclusion criteria were: published 1 Jan 1994 - 1 Jan 2011; original peer-reviewed research; reported data for Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders aged 10-24 2013s; focused on health and wellbeing. Grading for quality included ascertainment of Indigenous status, representativeness of the sample for the target population, and quality of measures of exposure and outcome. DATA SYNTHESIS 360 peer-reviewed publications met inclusion criteria; 90 (25%) exclusively sampled Indigenous young people. 250 studies (69%) were of good-quality design; 124 of these focused on health outcomes (15 of these evaluated an intervention) and 116 focused on health-risk exposure (26 evaluative). The methodological quality of data improved during 1994-2010; however, only 17% of studies focused on urban populations. A third of good-quality studies of health outcome focused on communicable diseases such as sexually transmitted infections and tuberculosis. There was good-quality data for oral health and substance use, and some data for adolescent pregnancy. Data on mental disorders, injury and cause-specific mortality were limited. CONCLUSIONS Despite improvements, there are important gaps in the evidence base for the health of young Indigenous Australians. Our study points to the need for greater research investment in urban settings and with regard to mental disorders and injury, with a further emphasis on trials of preventive and clinical intervention.
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Mensah FK, Bayer JK, Wake M, Carlin JB, Allen NB, Patton GC. Early puberty and childhood social and behavioral adjustment. J Adolesc Health 2013; 53:118-24. [PMID: 23558038 DOI: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2012.12.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2012] [Revised: 12/14/2012] [Accepted: 12/19/2012] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE Early puberty has been linked to higher rates of mental health problems in adolescence. However, previous studies commencing after the initiation of puberty have been unable to explore whether early puberty is preceded by higher rates of these problems. In a large national study, we aimed to determine whether difficulties in behavior and psychosocial adjustment are evident before as well as during the early pubertal transition. METHODS The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children recruited a nationally representative cohort of 4,983 children at age 4-5 years in 2004. This analysis includes 3,491 of these children (70.1%) followed up at ages 6-7, 8-9, and 10-11 years, with a completed parent report of stage of pubertal maturation at age 8-9 years. Parents reported behavior difficulties (Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire) and psychosocial adjustment (Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory) at all four waves from ages 4-5 to 10-11 years. RESULTS Both boys and girls who entered puberty early (i.e., by age 8-9 years) also experienced poorer psychosocial adjustment at this age. These psychosocial differences were already evident at ages 4-5 and 6-7 years, and persisted to at least age 10-11 years. Similar patterns were evident for behavior difficulties, but only for boys; early puberty was not related to behavior difficulties in girls. CONCLUSIONS Children with early puberty have different patterns of behavior and social adjustment from the preschool years through early adolescence. At least in part, the association between early-onset puberty and poor mental health appears to result from processes under way well before the onset of puberty.
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Olsson CA, Moyzis RK, Williamson E, Ellis JA, Parkinson-Bates M, Patton GC, Dwyer T, Romaniuk H, Moore EE. Gene-environment interaction in problematic substance use: interaction between DRD4 and insecure attachments. Addict Biol 2013; 18:717-26. [PMID: 22126256 DOI: 10.1111/j.1369-1600.2011.00413.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
To investigate the combined effect of an exon III variable number tandem repeat in the dopamine receptor gene (DRD4) and insecure attachment style on risk for tobacco, cannabis and alcohol use problems in young adulthood. It was hypothesized that (1) individuals with 5, 6, 7 or 8 repeats (labelled 7R+) would be at increased risk for problematic drug use, and (2) risk for drug use would be further increased in individuals with 7R+ repeats who also have a history of insecure parent-child attachment relations. Data were drawn from the Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study, an eight-wave longitudinal study of adolescent and young adult development. DRD4 genotypes were available for 839 participants. Risk attributable to the combined effects of 7R+ genotype and insecure attachments was evaluated within a sufficient causes framework under the assumptions of additive interaction using a two-by-four table format with a common reference group. 7R+ alleles were associated with higher tobacco, cannabis and alcohol use (binging). Insecure attachments were associated with higher tobacco and cannabis use but lower alcohol use. For tobacco, there was evidence of interaction for anxious but not avoidant attachments. For cannabis, there was evidence of interaction for both anxious and avoidant attachments, although the interaction for anxious attachments was more substantial. There is no evidence of interaction for binge drinking. Results are consistent with a generic reward deficit hypothesis of drug addiction for which the 7R+ disposition may play a role. Interaction between 7R+ alleles and attachment insecurity may intensify risk for problematic tobacco and cannabis use.
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Reid SC, Kauer SD, Hearps SJC, Crooke AHD, Khor AS, Sanci LA, Patton GC. A mobile phone application for the assessment and management of youth mental health problems in primary care: health service outcomes from a randomised controlled trial of mobiletype. BMC FAMILY PRACTICE 2013; 14:84. [PMID: 23782796 PMCID: PMC3716527 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2296-14-84] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2013] [Accepted: 05/31/2013] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND GPs detect at best 50c of mental health problems in young people. Barriers to detecting mental health problems include lack of screening tools, limited appointment times and young people's reluctance to report mental health symptoms to GPs. The mobiletype program is a mobile phone mental health assessment and management application which monitors mood, stress and everyday activities then transmits this information to general practitioners (GPs) via a secure website in summary format for medical review. The current aims were to examine: (i) mobiletype as a clinical assistance tool, ii) doctor-patient rapport and, iii) pathways to care. METHODS We conducted a randomised controlled trial in primary care with patients aged 14 to 24 years recruited from rural and metropolitan general practices. GPs identified and referred eligible participants (those with mild or more mental health concerns) who were randomly assigned to either the intervention group (where mood, stress and daily activities were monitored) or the attention-comparison group (where only daily activities were monitored). Both groups self-monitored for 2 to 4 weeks and reviewed the monitoring data with their GP. GPs, participants and researchers were blind to group allocation at randomisation. GPs assessed the mobiletype program as a clinical assistant tool. Doctor-patient rapport was assessed using the General Practice Assessment Questionnaire Communication and Enablement subscales, and the Trust in Physician Scale (TPS). Pathways to care was measured using The Party Project's Exit Interview. RESULTS Of the 163 participants assessed for eligibility, 118 were randomised and 114 participants were included in analyses (intervention n = 68, attention-comparison n = 46). T-tests showed that the intervention program increased understanding of patient mental health, assisted in decisions about medication/referral and helped in diagnosis when compared to the attention-comparison program. Mixed model analysis showed no differences in GP-patient rapport nor in pathways to care. CONCLUSIONS We conducted the first RCT of a mobile phone application in the mental health assessment and management of youth mental health in primary care. This study suggests that mobiletype has much to offer GPs in the often difficult and time-consuming task of assessment and management of youth mental health problems in primary care. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00794222.
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