Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration: individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies

AIMS

There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after 'recalibration', a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at 'high' 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29-39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22-24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44-51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37-39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.

CONCLUSION

Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.

Psychosocial Health and Lifestyle Behaviors in Young Adults Receiving Renal Replacement Therapy Compared to the General Population: Findings From the SPEAK Study

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Patients in late adolescence and early adulthood receiving renal replacement therapy (RRT) face disruption to normal activities, which affects well-being. We aimed to define psychosocial and lifestyle outcomes for young adults on RRT compared to the general population.

STUDY DESIGN

We undertook a cross-sectional survey (the SPEAK [Surveying Patients Experiencing Young Adult Kidney Failure] Study) using validated measures and general population comparator data from the Health Survey for England and Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Additional clinical information was obtained from the UK Renal Registry.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

16- to 30-year-olds receiving RRT.

OUTCOMES

Psychosocial health and lifestyle behaviors.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

We compared outcomes between populations using age- and sex-adjusted regression models, weighted to account for response bias by sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. Our findings were used to update recent meta-analyses.

RESULTS

We recruited 976 young adults and 64% responded to the survey: 417 (71%) with kidney transplants and 173 (29%) on dialysis therapy. Compared to the general population, young adults on RRT were less likely to be in a relationship and have children and more likely to live in the family home, receive no income, and be unable to work due to health. They had poorer quality of life, worse well-being, and twice the likelihood of a psychological disturbance (OR, 2.7; 95% CI, 2.0-3.7; P<0.001). They reported less smoking, alcohol and drug abuse, and crime. In a meta-analysis, our study showed the greatest differences in quality of life compared to the general population.

LIMITATIONS

Cross-sectional study design, meaning that we could not track the impact of treatment changes on the outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

This study involving a large cohort of young adult transplant recipients and dialysis patients provides evidence of worse psychosocial outcomes but more positive lifestyle behaviors in young adults on RRT compared to the age-matched general population.

Cardiovascular Risk Factors Associated With Venous Thromboembolism

Importance

It is uncertain to what extent established cardiovascular risk factors are associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE).

Objective

To estimate the associations of major cardiovascular risk factors with VTE, ie, deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This study included individual participant data mostly from essentially population-based cohort studies from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 731 728 participants; 75 cohorts; years of baseline surveys, February 1960 to June 2008; latest date of follow-up, December 2015) and the UK Biobank (421 537 participants; years of baseline surveys, March 2006 to September 2010; latest date of follow-up, February 2016). Participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline were included. Data were analyzed from June 2017 to September 2018.

Exposures

A panel of several established cardiovascular risk factors.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher usual risk factor levels (or presence/absence). Incident fatal outcomes in ERFC (VTE, 1041; coronary heart disease [CHD], 25 131) and incident fatal/nonfatal outcomes in UK Biobank (VTE, 2321; CHD, 3385). Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, diabetes, and body mass index (BMI).

Results

Of the 731 728 participants from the ERFC, 403 396 (55.1%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 51.9 (9.0) years; of the 421 537 participants from the UK Biobank, 233 699 (55.4%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 56.4 (8.1) years. Risk factors for VTE included older age (ERFC: HR per decade, 2.67; 95% CI, 2.45-2.91; UK Biobank: HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.71-1.92), current smoking (ERFC: HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.20-1.58; UK Biobank: HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.08-1.40), and BMI (ERFC: HR per 1-SD higher BMI, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.50; UK Biobank: HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.32-1.41). For these factors, there were similar HRs for pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis in UK Biobank (except adiposity was more strongly associated with pulmonary embolism) and similar HRs for unprovoked vs provoked VTE. Apart from adiposity, these risk factors were less strongly associated with VTE than CHD. There were inconsistent associations of VTEs with diabetes and blood pressure across ERFC and UK Biobank, and there was limited ability to study lipid and inflammation markers.

Conclusions and Relevance

Older age, smoking, and adiposity were consistently associated with higher VTE risk.

Developing and validating Parkinson's disease subtypes and their motor and cognitive progression

OBJECTIVES

To use a data-driven approach to determine the existence and natural history of subtypes of Parkinson's disease (PD) using two large independent cohorts of patients newly diagnosed with this condition.

METHODS

1601 and 944 patients with idiopathic PD, from Tracking Parkinson's and Discovery cohorts, respectively, were evaluated in motor, cognitive and non-motor domains at the baseline assessment. Patients were recently diagnosed at entry (within 3.5 years of diagnosis) and were followed up every 18 months. We used a factor analysis followed by a k-means cluster analysis, while prognosis was measured using random slope and intercept models.

RESULTS

We identified four clusters: (1)  fast motor progression with symmetrical motor disease, poor olfaction, cognition and postural hypotension; (2) mild motor and non-motor disease with intermediate motor progression; (3) severe motor disease, poor psychological well-being and  poor sleep with an intermediate motor progression; (4) slow motor progression with tremor-dominant, unilateral disease. Clusters were moderately to substantially stable across the two cohorts (kappa 0.58). Cluster 1 had the fastest motor progression in Tracking Parkinson's at 3.2 (95% CI 2.8 to 3.6) UPDRS III points per year while cluster 4 had the slowest at 0.6 (0.1-1.1). In Tracking Parkinson's, cluster 2 had the largest response to levodopa 36.3% and cluster 4 the lowest 28.8%.

CONCLUSIONS

We have found four novel clusters that replicated well across two independent early PD cohorts and were associated with levodopa response and motor progression rates. This has potential implications for better understanding disease pathophysiology and the relevance of patient stratification in future clinical trials.

Age-related inequalities in colon cancer treatment persist over time: a population-based analysis

Background

Older people experience poorer outcomes from colon cancer. We examined if treatment for colon cancer was related to age and if inequalities changed over time.

Methods

Data from the UK population-based Northern and Yorkshire Cancer Registry on 31 910 incident colon cancers (ICD10 C18) diagnosed between 1999–2010 were obtained. Likelihood of receipt of: (1) cancer-directed surgery, (2) chemotherapy in surgical patients, (3) chemotherapy in non-surgical patients by age, adjusting for sex, area deprivation, cancer stage, comorbidity and period of diagnosis, was examined.

Results

Age-related inequalities in treatment exist after adjustment for confounding factors. Patients aged 60– 69, 70–79 and 80+ years were significantly less likely to receive surgery than those aged <60 years (multivariable ORs (95% CI) 0.84(0.74 to 0.95), 0.54(0.48 to 0.61) and 0.19(0.17 to 0.21), respectively). Age-related differences in receipt of surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy (but not chemotherapy in non-surgical patients) narrowed over time for the ’younger old’ (aged <80 years) but did not diminish for the oldest patients.

Conclusions

Age inequality in treatment of colon cancer remains after adjustment for confounders, suggesting age remains a major factor in treatment decisions. Research is needed to better understand the cancer treatment decision-making process, and how to influence this, for older patients.

The minimum clinically important difference (MCID) for a falls intervention in Parkinson's: A delphi study

BACKGROUND

Falls are common in Parkinson's disease so any intervention that reduced falls risk would be of value. One potential intervention is the use of cholinesterase inhibitor (ChEi) drugs.

OBJECTIVE

To establish the minimum clinically important difference (MCID) for fall rates to inform the effect estimate for sample size calculations of future clinical trials.

METHODS

We performed a Delphi study assembling a panel of experts in Parkinson's disease from academic and clinical medicine in order to reach a consensus of opinion. Responses from a panel were summarised and resent to the group, until consensus was reached.

RESULTS

780 clinicians, who had been caring for people with Parkinson's for an average of 14 years, were contacted via three routes. The median (Interquartile range (IQR)) MCID after round 1 was 25% (IQR 20-30%) which equates to the prevention of 5 (IQR 4-6) falls per year. Increasing consensus after round two confirmed the MCID of 25%, narrowing the (IQ) range to 20%-25%. This was unchanged when the panel were shown the number of participants that would need to be recruited to a clinical trial in order to achieve this difference.

CONCLUSIONS

We have established that an expert panel of PD specialists consider that an intervention that demonstrated a 25% (IQR 20-25%) relative reduction in falls rate would be clinically meaningful. This estimate can be used to help determine the sample size for any future clinical trial.

Associations with Wellbeing and Medication Adherence in Young Adults Receiving Kidney Replacement Therapy

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Young adults receiving kidney replacement therapy (KRT) have impaired quality of life and may exhibit low medication adherence. We tested the hypothesis that wellbeing and medication adherence are associated with psychosocial factors.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

We conducted a cross-sectional online survey for young adults on KRT. Additional clinical information was obtained from the UK Renal Registry. We compared outcomes by treatment modality using age- and sex-adjusted regression models, having applied survey weights to account for response bias by sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. We used multivariable linear regression to examine psychosocial associations with scores on the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale and the eight-item Morisky Medication Adherence Scale.

RESULTS

We recruited 976 young adults and 64% responded to the survey; 417 (71%) with transplants and 173 (29%) on dialysis. Wellbeing was positively associated with extraversion, openness, independence, and social support, and negatively associated with neuroticism, negative body image, stigma, psychologic morbidity, and dialysis. Higher medication adherence was associated with living with parents, conscientiousness, physician access satisfaction, patient activation, age, and male sex, and lower adherence was associated with comorbidity, dialysis, education, ethnicity, and psychologic morbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

Wellbeing and medication adherence were both associated with psychologic morbidity in young adults. Dialysis treatment is associated with poorer wellbeing and medication adherence.

Smartphone motor testing to distinguish idiopathic REM sleep behavior disorder, controls, and PD

Objective

We sought to identify motor features that would allow the delineation of individuals with sleep study-confirmed idiopathic REM sleep behavior disorder (iRBD) from controls and Parkinson disease (PD) using a customized smartphone application.

Methods

A total of 334 PD, 104 iRBD, and 84 control participants performed 7 tasks to evaluate voice, balance, gait, finger tapping, reaction time, rest tremor, and postural tremor. Smartphone recordings were collected both in clinic and at home under noncontrolled conditions over several days. All participants underwent detailed parallel in-clinic assessments. Using only the smartphone sensor recordings, we sought to (1) discriminate whether the participant had iRBD or PD and (2) identify which of the above 7 motor tasks were most salient in distinguishing groups.

Results

Statistically significant differences based on these 7 tasks were observed between the 3 groups. For the 3 pairwise discriminatory comparisons, (1) controls vs iRBD, (2) controls vs PD, and (3) iRBD vs PD, the mean sensitivity and specificity values ranged from 84.6% to 91.9%. Postural tremor, rest tremor, and voice were the most discriminatory tasks overall, whereas the reaction time was least discriminatory.

Conclusions

Prodromal forms of PD include the sleep disorder iRBD, where subtle motor impairment can be detected using clinician-based rating scales (e.g., Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale), which may lack the sensitivity to detect and track granular change. Consumer grade smartphones can be used to accurately separate not only iRBD from controls but also iRBD from PD participants, providing a growing consensus for the utility of digital biomarkers in early and prodromal PD.

Symptoms in primary care with time to diagnosis of brain tumours

Background

Brain tumours often present with varied, non-specific features with other diagnoses usually being more likely.

Objective

To examine how different symptoms and patient demographics predict variations in time to brain tumour diagnosis.

Methods

We conducted a secondary analysis of brain tumour cases from National Audit of Cancer Diagnosis in Primary Care. We grouped neurological symptoms into six domains (headache, behavioural/cognitive change, focal neurology, 'fits, faints or falls', non-specific neurological, and other/non-specific) and calculated times for patient presentation, GP referral, specialist consultation and total pathway interval. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) for symptom domains comparing the slowest to other quartiles.

Results

Data were available for 226 cases. Median (interquartile range) time for the total pathway interval was 24 days (7-65 days). The most common presentation was focal neurology (33.2%) followed by 'fits, faints or falls' and headache (both 20.8%). Headache only (OR = 4.11, 95% CI = 1.10, 15.5) and memory complaints (OR = 4.82, 95% CI = 1.15, 20.1) were associated with slower total pathway compared to 'fits, faints or falls'. GPs were more likely to consider that there had been avoidable delays in referring patients with headache only (OR = 4.17, 95% CI = 1.14, 15.3).

Conclusion

Patients presenting to primary care with headache only or with memory complaints remain problematic with potentially avoidable delays in referral leading to a longer patient pathway. This may or may not impact on the efficacy and morbidity of therapies. Additional aids are required to help doctors differentiate when to refer headaches and memory complaints urgently for a specialist opinion.

Sociodemographic inequalities in the management of depression in adults aged 55 and over: an analysis of English primary care data

BACKGROUND

We do not know how primary care treatment of depression varies by age across both psychotropic medication and psychological therapies.

METHODS

Cohort study including 19 710 people aged 55+ with GP recorded depression diagnoses and 26 276 people with recorded depression symptoms during the period 2009-2013, from 373 General Practices in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database in England. Main outcomes were initiation of treatment with anti-depressants, anxiolytics, hypnotics, anti-psychotic drugs, referrals to psychological therapies within 6 months of onset.

RESULTS

Treatment rates with antidepressants are high for those recorded with new depression diagnoses (87.1%) or symptoms of depression (58.7%). Treatment in those with depression diagnoses varies little by age. In those with depressive symptoms there was a J-shaped pattern with reduced antidepressant treatment in those in their 60s and 70s followed by increased treatment in the oldest age groups (85+ years), compared with those aged 55-59 years. Other psychotropic drug prescribing (hypnotics/anxiolytics, antipsychotics) all increase with increasing age. Recorded referrals for psychological therapies were low, and decreased steadily with increasing age, such that women aged 75-79 years with depression diagnoses had around six times lower odds of referral (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.1-0.29) than those aged 55-59 years, and men aged 80-84 years had around seven times lower (OR 0.14, 95% CI 0.05-0.36).

CONCLUSIONS

The oldest age groups with new depression diagnoses and symptoms have fewer recorded referrals to psychological therapies, and higher psychotropic drug treatment rates in primary care. This suggests potential inequalities in access to psychological therapies.

Features of GBA-associated Parkinson's disease at presentation in the UK Tracking Parkinson's study

OBJECTIVES

To examine the influence of the glucocerebrosidase (GBA) mutation carrier state on age at onset of Parkinson's disease (PD), the motor phenotype and cognitive function at baseline assessment in a large cohort of UK patients. We also analysed the prevalence of mood and behavioural problems that may confound the assessment of cognitive function.

METHODS

We prospectively recruited patients with PD in the Tracking Parkinson's study. We fully sequenced the GBA gene in all recently diagnosed patients (≤3.5 years). We examined cognitive (Montreal Cognitive Assessment) and motor (Movement Disorder Society Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale part 3) function at a baseline assessment, at an average of 1.3 years after diagnosis. We used logistic regression to determine predictors of PD with mild cognitive impairment and PD with dementia.

RESULTS

We studied 1893 patients with PD: 48 (2.5%) were heterozygous carriers for known Gaucher's disease (GD) causing pathogenic mutations; 117 (6.2%) had non-synonymous variants, previously associated with PD, and 28 (1.5%) patients carried variants of unknown significance in the GBA gene. L444P was the most common pathogenic GBA mutation. Patients with pathogenic GBA mutations were on average 5 years younger at disease onset compared with non-carriers (P=0.02). PD patients with GD-causing mutations did not have an increased family risk of PD. Patients with GBA mutations were more likely to present with the postural instability gait difficulty phenotype compared with non-carriers (P=0.02). Patients carrying pathogenic mutations in GBA had more advanced Hoehn and Yahr stage after adjustment for age and disease duration compared with non-carriers (P=0.005). There were no differences in cognitive function between GBA mutation carriers and non-carriers at this early disease stage.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study confirms the influence of GBA mutations on the age of onset, disease severity and motor phenotype in patients with PD. Cognition did not differ between GBA mutation carriers and non-carriers at baseline, implying that cognitive impairment/dementia, reported in other studies at a later disease stage, is not present in recently diagnosed cases. This offers an important window of opportunity for potential disease-modifying therapy that may protect against the development of dementia in GBA-PD.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT02881099; Results.

Randomised controlled trial of high versus ad libitum water intake in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: rationale and design of the DRINK feasibility trial

INTRODUCTION

Vasopressin stimulates cyst growth in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) leading to enlarged kidneys, hypertension and renal failure. Vasopressin receptor blockade slows disease progression. Physiological suppression of vasopressin secretion through high water (HW) intake could achieve a similar effect, necessitating a definitive large-scale trial of HW intake in ADPKD. The objective of the DRINK trial is to answer the key design and feasibility questions required to deliver a successful definitive water intake trial.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We describe the design of a single-centre, open-label, prospective, randomised controlled trial. The "Determining feasibility of R andomisation to high vs. ad libitum water In take in Polycystic K idney Disease" (DRINK) trial aims to enrol 50 patients with ADPKD, over the age of 16 years with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥20 mL/min/1.73 m². Participants will be randomised 1:1 to HW intake based on an individualised water intake prescription, or to ad libitum (AW) water intake. The HW group will aim for a dilute urine (urine osmolality ≤270 mOsm/kg) as a surrogate marker of vasopressin suppression, and those in the AW group will target more concentrated urine. Participants will have an 8-week treatment period, and will be seen at weeks 0, 2, 4 and 8, undergoing assessments of fluid status, renal function and serum and urine osmolalities. They will receive dietary advice, and self-monitor urine specific gravity and fluid intake. The trial employs smartphone technology to permit home monitoring and remote direct data capture. The primary feasibility end points are recruitment rate and separation between arms in measured urinary osmolality. Key secondary assessments include acceptability, adherence, health-related quality of life, acute effects of HW intake on measured (⁵¹Cr-EDTA) and eGFR and ADPKD-related pain.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval was awarded by the East of England Essex Research Ethics Committee (16/EE/0026). The results of DRINK will be submitted to peer-reviewed journals, and presented to patients via the PKD Charity.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02933268 and ISCRTN16794957.

Association of apolipoprotein E gene polymorphisms with blood lipids and their interaction with dietary factors

BACKGROUND

Several candidate genes have been identified in relation to lipid metabolism, and among these, lipoprotein lipase (LPL) and apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene polymorphisms are major sources of genetically determined variation in lipid concentrations. This study investigated the association of two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at LPL, seven tagging SNPs at the APOE gene, and a common APOE haplotype (two SNPs) with blood lipids, and examined the interaction of these SNPs with dietary factors.

METHODS

The population studied for this investigation included 660 individuals from the Prevention of Cancer by Intervention with Selenium (PRECISE) study who supplied baseline data. The findings of the PRECISE study were further replicated using 1238 individuals from the Caerphilly Prospective cohort (CaPS). Dietary intake was assessed using a validated food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ) in PRECISE and a validated semi-quantitative FFQ in the CaPS. Interaction analyses were performed by including the interaction term in the linear regression model adjusted for age, body mass index, sex and country.

RESULTS

There was no association between dietary factors and blood lipids after Bonferroni correction and adjustment for confounding factors in either cohort. In the PRECISE study, after correction for multiple testing, there was a statistically significant association of the APOE haplotype (rs7412 and rs429358; E2, E3, and E4) and APOE tagSNP rs445925 with total cholesterol (P = 4 × 10^- 4 and P = 0.003, respectively). Carriers of the E2 allele had lower total cholesterol concentration (5.54 ± 0.97 mmol/L) than those with the E3 (5.98 ± 1.05 mmol/L) (P = 0.001) and E4 (6.09 ± 1.06 mmol/L) (P = 2 × 10^- 4) alleles. The association of APOE haplotype (E2, E3, and E4) and APOE SNP rs445925 with total cholesterol (P = 2 × 10^- 6 and P = 3 × 10^- 4, respectively) was further replicated in the CaPS. Additionally, significant association was found between APOE haplotype and APOE SNP rs445925 with low density lipoprotein cholesterol in CaPS (P = 4 × 10^- 4 and P = 0.001, respectively). After Bonferroni correction, none of the cohorts showed a statistically significant SNP-diet interaction on lipid outcomes.

CONCLUSION

In summary, our findings from the two cohorts confirm that genetic variations at the APOE locus influence plasma total cholesterol concentrations, however, the gene-diet interactions on lipids require further investigation in larger cohorts.

The Effect of Age, Sex, Area Deprivation, and Living Arrangements on Total Knee Replacement Outcomes: A Study Involving the United Kingdom National Joint Registry Dataset

Background:

Total knee replacement (TKR) is a common procedure for the treatment of osteoarthritis that provides a substantial reduction of knee pain and improved function in most patients. We investigated whether sociodemographic factors could explain variations in the benefit resulting from TKR.

Methods:

Data were collected from 3 sources: the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Isle of Man; National Health Service (NHS) England Patient Reported Outcome Measures; and Hospital Episode Statistics. These 3 sources were linked for analysis. Pain and function of the knee were measured with use of the Oxford Knee Score (OKS). The risk factors of interest were age group, sex, deprivation, and social support. The outcomes of interest were sociodemographic differences in preoperative scores, 6-month postoperative scores, and change in scores.

Results:

Ninety-one thousand nine hundred and thirty-six adults underwent primary TKR for the treatment of osteoarthritis in an NHS England unit from 2009 to 2012. Sixty-six thousand seven hundred and sixty-nine of those patients had complete knee score data and were included in the analyses for the present study. The preoperative knee scores were worst in female patients, younger patients, and patients from deprived areas. At 6 months postoperatively, the mean knee score had improved by 15.2 points. There were small sociodemographic differences in the benefit of surgery, with greater area deprivation (−0.71 per quintile of increase in deprivation; 95% confidence interval [CI], −0.76 to −0.66; p < 0.001) and younger age group (−3.51 for ≤50 years compared with 66 to 75 years; 95% CI, −4.00 to −3.02; p < 0.001) associated with less benefit. Cumulatively, sociodemographic factors explained <1% of the total variability in improvement.

Conclusions:

Sociodemographic factors have a small influence on the benefit resulting from TKR. However, as they are associated with the clinical threshold at which the procedure is performed, they do affect the eventual outcomes of TKR.

Level of Evidence:

Prognostic Level IV. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of evidence.

Interventions to improve immigrant health. A scoping review

Background: Disparities in health between immigrants and their host populations have been described across countries and continents. Hence, interventions for improving health targeting general populations are not necessarily effective for immigrants. Aims: To conduct a systematic search of the literature evaluating health interventions for immigrants; to map the characteristics of identified studies including range of interventions, immigrant populations and their host countries, clinical areas targeted and reported evaluations, challenges and limitations of the interventions identified. Following the results, to develop recommendations for research in the field. Methods: A scoping review approach was chosen to provide an overview of the type, extent and quantity of research available. Studies were included if they empirically evaluated health interventions targeting immigrants and/or their descendants, included a control group, and were published in English (PubMed and Embase from 1990 to 2015). Results: Most of the 83 studies included were conducted in the USA, encompassed few immigrant groups and used a randomized controlled trial (RCT) or cluster RCT design. Most interventions addressed chronic and non-communicable diseases and attendance at cancer screening services, used individual targeted approaches, targeted adult women and recruited participants from health centres. Outcome measures were often subjective, with the exception of interventions for cardiovascular risk and diabetes. Generally, authors claimed that interventions were beneficial, despite a number of reported limitations. Conclusions: Recommendations for enhancing interventions to improve immigrant health are provided to help researchers, funders and health care commissioners when deciding upon the scope, nature and design of future research in this area.

Development and Validation of a Path Length Calculation for Carotid-Femoral Pulse Wave Velocity Measurement: A TASCFORCE, SUMMIT, and Caerphilly Collaborative Venture

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Current distance measurement techniques for pulse wave velocity (PWV) calculation are susceptible to intercenter variability. The aim of this study was to derive and validate a formula for this distance measurement. Based on carotid femoral distance in 1183 whole-body magnetic resonance angiograms, a formula was derived for calculating distance. This was compared with distance measurements in 128 whole-body magnetic resonance angiograms from a second study. The effects of recalculation of PWV using the new formula on association with risk factors, disease discrimination, and prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events were examined within 1242 participants from the multicenter SUMMIT study (Surrogate Markers of Micro- and Macrovascular Hard End-Points for Innovative Diabetes Tools) and 825 participants from the Caerphilly Prospective Study. The distance formula yielded a mean error of 7.8 mm (limits of agreement =−41.1 to 56.7 mm; P<0.001) compared with the second whole-body magnetic resonance angiogram group. Compared with an external distance measurement, the distance formula did not change associations between PWV and age, blood pressure, or creatinine (P<0.01) but did remove significant associations between PWV and body mass index (BMI). After accounting for differences in age, sex, and mean arterial pressure, intercenter differences in PWV persisted using the external distance measurement (F=4.6; P=0.004), whereas there was a loss of between center difference using the distance formula (F=1.4; P=0.24). PWV odds ratios for cardiovascular mortality remained the same using both the external distance measurement (1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.06–1.24; P=0.001) and the distance formula (1.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.08–1.28; P<0.001). A population-derived automatic distance calculation for PWV obtained from routinely collected clinical information is accurate and removes intercenter measurement variability without impacting the diagnostic utility of carotid–femoral PWV.

Effect of a Low-Intensity PSA-Based Screening Intervention on Prostate Cancer Mortality: The CAP Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Prostate cancer screening remains controversial because potential mortality or quality-of-life benefits may be outweighed by harms from overdetection and overtreatment.

Objective

To evaluate the effect of a single prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening intervention and standardized diagnostic pathway on prostate cancer-specific mortality.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The Cluster Randomized Trial of PSA Testing for Prostate Cancer (CAP) included 419 582 men aged 50 to 69 years and was conducted at 573 primary care practices across the United Kingdom. Randomization and recruitment of the practices occurred between 2001 and 2009; patient follow-up ended on March 31, 2016.

Intervention

An invitation to attend a PSA testing clinic and receive a single PSA test vs standard (unscreened) practice.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Primary outcome: prostate cancer-specific mortality at a median follow-up of 10 years. Prespecified secondary outcomes: diagnostic cancer stage and Gleason grade (range, 2-10; higher scores indicate a poorer prognosis) of prostate cancers identified, all-cause mortality, and an instrumental variable analysis estimating the causal effect of attending the PSA screening clinic.

Results

Among 415 357 randomized men (mean [SD] age, 59.0 [5.6] years), 189 386 in the intervention group and 219 439 in the control group were included in the analysis (n = 408 825; 98%). In the intervention group, 75 707 (40%) attended the PSA testing clinic and 67 313 (36%) underwent PSA testing. Of 64 436 with a valid PSA test result, 6857 (11%) had a PSA level between 3 ng/mL and 19.9 ng/mL, of whom 5850 (85%) had a prostate biopsy. After a median follow-up of 10 years, 549 (0.30 per 1000 person-years) died of prostate cancer in the intervention group vs 647 (0.31 per 1000 person-years) in the control group (rate difference, -0.013 per 1000 person-years [95% CI, -0.047 to 0.022]; rate ratio [RR], 0.96 [95% CI, 0.85 to 1.08]; P = .50). The number diagnosed with prostate cancer was higher in the intervention group (n = 8054; 4.3%) than in the control group (n = 7853; 3.6%) (RR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.14 to 1.25]; P < .001). More prostate cancer tumors with a Gleason grade of 6 or lower were identified in the intervention group (n = 3263/189 386 [1.7%]) than in the control group (n = 2440/219 439 [1.1%]) (difference per 1000 men, 6.11 [95% CI, 5.38 to 6.84]; P < .001). In the analysis of all-cause mortality, there were 25 459 deaths in the intervention group vs 28 306 deaths in the control group (RR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.94 to 1.03]; P = .49). In the instrumental variable analysis for prostate cancer mortality, the adherence-adjusted causal RR was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.67 to 1.29; P = .66).

Conclusions and Relevance

Among practices randomized to a single PSA screening intervention vs standard practice without screening, there was no significant difference in prostate cancer mortality after a median follow-up of 10 years but the detection of low-risk prostate cancer cases increased. Although longer-term follow-up is under way, the findings do not support single PSA testing for population-based screening.

Trial Registration

ISRCTN Identifier: ISRCTN92187251.

Continually improving standards of care: The UK Renal Registry as a translational public health tool

A disease registry uses observational study methods to collect defined data on patients with a particular condition for a predetermined purpose. By providing comprehensive standardised data on patients with kidney disease, renal registries aim to provide a 'real world' representation of practice patterns, treatment and patient outcomes that may not be captured accurately by other methods, including randomised controlled trials. Additionally, using registries to measure variations in outcomes and audit care against standards is crucial to understanding how to improve quality of care for patients in an efficacious and cost-effective manner. Registries also have the potential to be a powerful scientific tool that can monitor and support the translational process between research and routine clinical practice, although their limitations must be borne in mind. In this review, we describe the role of the UK Renal Registry as a tool to support translational research. We describe its involvement across each stage of the translational pathway: from hypothesis generation, study design and data collection, to reporting of long-term outcomes and quality improvement initiatives. Furthermore we explore how this role may bring about improvements in care for adults and children with kidney disease.

Troponin and BNP are markers for subsequent non-ischaemic congestive heart failure: the Caerphilly Prospective Study (CaPS)

Objective

To examine the long-term predictive value of 28 biomarkers for subsequent non-ischaemic congestive heart failure (CHF) and separately for other cardiovascular outcomes (myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke).

Methods

The Caerphilly Prospective Study recruited 2171 men aged 55–69 years from the general population in 1989–1993; men were screened for evidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and followed for clinical cardiovascular events. Fasting blood samples were stored at −70°C until assayed for novel biomarkers in 2010–2013. A competing risks proportional hazards regression analysis was used to estimate subhazard ratios (SHRs) for each biomarker for each cardiovascular outcome.

Results

During follow-up (average 13 years), only new, initial events were evaluated in the whole cohort: 584 MIs, 313 strokes and 261 episodes of CHF (not associated with acute MI). In a subcohort of men who had no clinical history or evidence of CVD at baseline examination (n=1279) those in the top third of the distributions of troponin and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) showed a threefold increase in risk for subsequent CHF as a first event after adjustment for all conventional risk factors (SHRs 3.37, 95% CI 1.39 to 8.14 and 3.23, 95% CI 1.45 to 7.23), respectively, in contrast to moderate elevations in risk for acute MI (troponin SHR 1.63, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.41) and for stroke (BNP SHR 1.75 95% CI 1.06 to 2.88).

Conclusion

Troponin and BNP could be considered as potentially useful screening tools to detect subjects without prior CVD at increased risk of developing CHF in subsequent years in addition to having lesser roles for predicting subsequent MI (troponin) or stroke (BNP).

Adult height, coronary heart disease and stroke: a multi-locus Mendelian randomization meta-analysis

Background: We investigated causal effect of completed growth, measured by adult height, on coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and cardiovascular traits, using instrumental variable (IV) Mendelian randomization meta-analysis.

Methods: We developed an allele score based on 69 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with adult height, identified by the IBCCardioChip, and used it for IV analysis against cardiovascular risk factors and events in 21 studies and 60 028 participants. IV analysis on CHD was supplemented by summary data from 180 height-SNPs from the GIANT consortium and their corresponding CHD estimates derived from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D.

Results: IV estimates from IBCCardioChip and GIANT-CARDIoGRAMplusC4D showed that a 6.5-cm increase in height reduced the odds of CHD by 10% [odds ratios 0.90; 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.78 to 1.03 and 0.85 to 0.95, respectively],which agrees with the estimate from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (hazard ratio 0.93; 95% CI: 0.91 to 0.94). IV analysis revealed no association with stroke (odds ratio 0.97; 95% CI: 0.79 to 1.19). IV analysis showed that a 6.5-cm increase in height resulted in lower levels of body mass index (P < 0.001), triglycerides (P < 0.001), non high-density (non-HDL) cholesterol (P < 0.001), C-reactive protein (P = 0.042), and systolic blood pressure (P = 0.064) and higher levels of forced expiratory volume in 1 s and forced vital capacity (P < 0.001 for both).

Conclusions: Taller individuals have a lower risk of CHD with potential explanations being that taller people have a better lung function and lower levels of body mass index, cholesterol and blood pressure.

Modelling disease progression in relapsing-remitting onset multiple sclerosis using multilevel models applied to longitudinal data from two natural history cohorts and one treated cohort

BACKGROUND

The ability to better predict disease progression represents a major unmet need in multiple sclerosis (MS), and would help to inform therapeutic and management choices.

OBJECTIVES

To develop multilevel models using longitudinal data on disease progression in patients with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) or secondary-progressive MS (SPMS); and to use these models to estimate the association of disease-modifying therapy (DMT) with progression.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of three MS cohorts.

SETTING

Two natural history cohorts: University of Wales Multiple Sclerosis (UoWMS) cohort, UK, and British Columbia Multiple Sclerosis (BCMS) cohort, Canada. One observational DMT-treated cohort: UK MS risk-sharing scheme (RSS).

PARTICIPANTS

The UoWMS database has > 2000 MS patients and the BCMS database (as of 2009) has > 5900 MS patients. All participants who had definite MS (RRMS/SPMS), who reached the criteria set out by the Association of British Neurologists (ABN) for eligibility for DMT [i.e. age ≥ 18 years, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of ≤ 6.5, occurrence of two or more relapses in the previous 2 years] and who had at least two repeated outcome measures were included: 404 patients for the UoWMS cohort and 978 patients for the BCMS cohort. Through the UK MS RSS scheme, 5583 DMT-treated patients were recruited, with the analysis sample being the 4137 who had RRMS and were eligible and treated at baseline, with at least one valid EDSS score post baseline.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

EDSS score observations post ABN eligibility.

METHODS

We used multilevel models in the development cohort (UoWMS) to develop a model for EDSS score with time since ABN eligibility, allowing for covariates and appropriate transformation of outcome and/or time. These methods were then applied to the BCMS cohort to obtain a 'natural history' model for changes in the EDSS score with time. We then used this natural history model to predict the trajectories of EDSS score in treated patients in the UK MS RSS database. Differences between the progression predicted by the natural history model and the progression observed at 6 years' follow-up for the UK MS RSS cohort were used as indicators of the effectiveness of the DMTs. Previously developed utility scores were assigned to each EDSS score, and differences in utility also examined.

RESULTS

The model best fitting the UoWMS data showed a non-linear increase in EDSS score over time since ABN eligibility. This model fitted the BCMS cohort data well, with similar coefficients, and the BCMS model predicted EDSS score in UoWMS data with little evidence of bias. Using the natural history model predicts EDSS score in a treated cohort (UK MS RSS) higher than that observed [by 0.59 points (95% confidence interval 0.54 to 0.64 points)] at 6 years post treatment.

LIMITATIONS

Only two natural history cohorts were compared, limiting generalisability. The comparison of a treated cohort with untreated cohorts is observational, thus limiting conclusions about causality.

CONCLUSIONS

EDSS score progression in two natural history cohorts of MS patients showed a similar pattern. Progression in the natural history cohorts was slightly faster than EDSS score progression in the DMT-treated cohort, up to 6 years post treatment.

FUTURE WORK

Long-term follow-up of randomised controlled trials is needed to replicate these findings and examine duration of any treatment effect.

FUNDING DETAILS

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Young adults' perspectives on living with kidney failure: a systematic review and thematic synthesis of qualitative studies

INTRODUCTION

Young adults fare worse than younger adolescents or older adults on a broad range of health indicators. Those with a chronic illness such as renal failure are a particularly vulnerable group, who experience poor outcomes compared with both children and older adults. Understanding how being in receipt of renal replacement therapy (RRT) affects the lives of young adults might help us to better prepare and support these individuals for and on RRT, and improve outcomes. This study aimed to synthesise research describing young adults' experiences of the psychosocial impact of kidney failure and RRT.

DESIGN

A systematic literature review identified qualitative research reporting the perspectives of people aged 16-30 years receiving RRT on the psychosocial impact of renal failure. Electronic databases (including Medline/EMBASE/PsycINFO/ASSIA) were searched to November 2017 for full-text papers. The transparency of reporting of each study was assessed using the Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Health Research (COREQ) framework. Quality was assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme qualitative checklist. An inductive thematic synthesis was undertaken.

PARTICIPANTS

Seven studies from five different countries were included, comprising 123 young adults receiving RRT.

RESULTS

Comprehensiveness of reporting was variable: studies reported 9-22 of the 32 COREQ-checklist items.Three global themes about the impact of kidney failure on young adults were identified: (1) difference desiring normality, (2) thwarted or moderated dreams and ambitions, and (3) uncertainty and liminality. These reflected five organising themes: (1) physical appearance and body image, (2) activity and participation, (3) educational disruption and underachievement, (4) career ambitions and employment difficulties, and (5) social isolation and intimate relationships.

CONCLUSIONS

Across different countries and different healthcare settings, young adults on RRT experience difference and liminality, even after transplantation. Tailored social and psychological support is required to allow young adults to experience wellness while in receipt of RRT, and not have life on hold.

The effect of social deprivation on hip fracture incidence in England has not changed over 14 years: an analysis of the English Hospital Episodes Statistics (2001-2015)

Deprivation predicts increased hip fracture risk. Over 14 years, hip fracture incidence increased among men with persisting inequalities. Among women, inequalities in incidence were less pronounced; whilst incidence decreased overall, this improvement was seen marginally less in women from the most deprived areas. Hip fracture prevention programmes have not reduced inequalities.

PURPOSE

Deprivation is associated with increased hip fracture risk. We examined the effect of area-level deprivation on hip fracture incidence in England over 14 years to determine whether inequalities have changed over time.

METHODS

We used English Hospital Episodes Statistics (2001/2002-2014/2015) to identify hip fractures in adults aged 50+ years and mid-year population estimates (2001-2014) from the Office for National Statistics. The Index of Multiple Deprivation measured local area deprivation. We calculated age-adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) for hip fracture, stratified by gender and deprivation quintiles.

RESULTS

Over 14 years, we identified 747,369 hospital admissions with an index hip fracture; the number increased from 50,640 in 2001 to 55,092 in 2014; the proportion of men increased from 22.2% to 29.6%. Whereas incidence rates decreased in women (annual reduction 1.1%), they increased in men (annual increase 0.6%) (interaction p < 0.001). Incidence was higher in more deprived areas, particularly among men: IRR most vs. least deprived quintile 1.50 [95% CI 1.48, 1.52] in men, 1.17 [1.16, 1.18] in women. Age-standardised incidence increased for men across all deprivation quintiles from 2001 to 2014. Among women, incidence fell more among those least compared to most deprived (year by deprivation interaction p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Deprivation is a stronger relative predictor of hip fracture incidence in men than in women. However, given their higher hip fracture incidence, the absolute burden of deprivation on hip fractures is greater in women. Despite public health efforts to prevent hip fractures, the health inequality gap for hip fracture incidence has not narrowed for men, and marginally widened among women.

The Rationale and Design of the Reducing Pathology in Alzheimer's Disease through Angiotensin TaRgeting (RADAR) Trial

BACKGROUND

Anti-hypertensives that modify the renin angiotensin system may reduce Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology and reduce the rate of disease progression.

OBJECTIVE

To conduct a phase II, two arm, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial of losartan to test the efficacy of Reducing pathology in Alzheimer's Disease through Angiotensin TaRgeting (RADAR).

METHODS

Men and women aged at least 55 years with mild-to-moderate AD will be randomly allocated 100 mg encapsulated generic losartan or placebo once daily for 12 months after successful completion of a 2-week open-label phase and 2-week placebo washout to establish drug tolerability. 228 participants will provide at least 182 subjects with final assessments to provide 84% power to detect a 25% difference in atrophy rate (therapeutic benefit) change over 12 months at an alpha level of 0.05. We will use intention-to-treat analysis, estimating between-group differences in outcomes derived from appropriate (linear or logistic) multivariable regression models adjusting for minimization variables.

RESULTS

The primary outcome will be rate of whole brain atrophy as a surrogate measure of disease progression. Secondary outcomes will include changes to 1) white matter hyperintensity volume and cerebral blood flow; 2) performance on a standard series of assessments of memory, cognitive function, activities of daily living, and quality of life. Major assessments (for all outcomes) and relevant safety monitoring of blood pressure and bloods will be at baseline and 12 months. Additional cognitive assessment will also be conducted at 6 months along with safety blood pressure and blood monitoring. Monitoring of blood pressure, bloods, and self-reported side effects will occur during the open-label phase and during the majority of the post-randomization dispensing visits.

CONCLUSION

This study will identify whether losartan is efficacious in the treatment of AD and whether definitive Phase III trials are warranted.

Sociodemographic, Psychologic Health, and Lifestyle Outcomes in Young Adults on Renal Replacement Therapy

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Young adults receiving RRT face additional challenges in life. The effect of established kidney failure on young adulthood is uncertain. We aimed to establish the psychosocial and lifestyle status of young adults receiving RRT.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

Our study was a systematic review and meta-analysis of 16-30-year olds receiving RRT compared with the general population. We selected randomized, controlled trials; cohort studies; or cross-sectional studies without language restriction and extracted proportions of sociodemographic and lifestyle outcomes or validated psychologic health tests producing quality of life, wellbeing, and self-esteem scores. We undertook random effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

There were 60 studies with a total of 15,575 participants. Studies were largely single-center cross-sectional studies of those transplanted in childhood. Compared with healthy peers, young adults on RRT had lower quality of life, which was worse for patients on dialysis (seven studies: standardized mean difference, -1.01; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], -1.32 to -0.70) compared with patients with transplants (nine studies: standardized mean difference, -0.42; 95% CI, -0.64 to -0.20). They were more likely to be unemployed (seven studies: relative risk, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.47 to 2.44) and live in the family home (two studies: relative risk, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.40 to 2.43). They were less likely to be married or have a partner (four studies: relative risk, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.95). Higher education (three studies: relative risk, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.51), alcohol abstinence (three studies: relative risk, 1.96; 95% CI, 0.84 to 4.67), and smoking status (two studies: relative risk, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.36 to 1.44) did not differ. Results were limited by high heterogeneity and a small evidence base, biased toward surviving patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Established kidney failure is associated with lower quality of life in young people and limited employment, independence, and relationships compared with healthy peers.

PODCAST

This article contains a podcast at https://www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2017_10_19_CJASNPodcast_17_12_.mp3.

Metabolic Profiling of Adiponectin Levels in Adults: Mendelian Randomization Analysis

BACKGROUND

Adiponectin, a circulating adipocyte-derived protein, has insulin-sensitizing, anti-inflammatory, antiatherogenic, and cardiomyocyte-protective properties in animal models. However, the systemic effects of adiponectin in humans are unknown. Our aims were to define the metabolic profile associated with higher blood adiponectin concentration and investigate whether variation in adiponectin concentration affects the systemic metabolic profile.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We applied multivariable regression in ≤5909 adults and Mendelian randomization (using cis-acting genetic variants in the vicinity of the adiponectin gene as instrumental variables) for analyzing the causal effect of adiponectin in the metabolic profile of ≤37 545 adults. Participants were largely European from 6 longitudinal studies and 1 genome-wide association consortium. In the multivariable regression analyses, higher circulating adiponectin was associated with higher high-density lipoprotein lipids and lower very-low-density lipoprotein lipids, glucose levels, branched-chain amino acids, and inflammatory markers. However, these findings were not supported by Mendelian randomization analyses for most metabolites. Findings were consistent between sexes and after excluding high-risk groups (defined by age and occurrence of previous cardiovascular event) and 1 study with admixed population.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that blood adiponectin concentration is more likely to be an epiphenomenon in the context of metabolic disease than a key determinant.

Exome-chip meta-analysis identifies association between variation in ANKRD26 and platelet aggregation

Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several variants associated with platelet function phenotypes; however, the proportion of variance explained by the identified variants is mostly small. Rare coding variants, particularly those with high potential for impact on protein structure/function, may have substantial impact on phenotype but are difficult to detect by GWAS. The main purpose of this study was to identify low frequency or rare variants associated with platelet function using genotype data from the Illumina HumanExome Bead Chip. Three family-based cohorts of European ancestry, including ~4,000 total subjects, comprised the discovery cohort and two independent cohorts, one of European and one of African American ancestry, were used for replication. Optical aggregometry in platelet-rich plasma was performed in all the discovery cohorts in response to adenosine diphosphate (ADP), epinephrine, and collagen. Meta-analyses were performed using both gene-based and single nucleotide variant association methods. The gene-based meta-analysis identified a significant association (P = 7.13 × 10^-7) between rare genetic variants in ANKRD26 and ADP-induced platelet aggregation. One of the ANKRD26 SNVs - rs191015656, encoding a threonine to isoleucine substitution predicted to alter protein structure/function, was replicated in Europeans. Aggregation increases of ~20-50% were observed in heterozygotes in all cohorts. Novel genetic signals in ABCG1 and HCP5 were also associated with platelet aggregation to ADP in meta-analyses, although only results for HCP5 could be replicated. The SNV in HCP5 intersects epigenetic signatures in CD41+ megakaryocytes suggesting a new functional role in platelet biology for HCP5. This is the first study to use gene-based association methods from SNV array genotypes to identify rare variants related to platelet function. The molecular mechanisms and pathophysiological relevance for the identified genetic associations requires further study.

What are older smokers' attitudes to quitting and how are they managed in primary care? An analysis of the cross-sectional English Smoking Toolkit Study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether age is associated with access to smoking cessation services.

DESIGN

Data from the Smoking Toolkit Study 2006-2015, a repeated multiwave cross-sectional household survey (n=181 157).

SETTING

England.

PARTICIPANTS

Past-year smokers who participated in any of the 102 waves stratified into age groups.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Amount smoked and nicotine dependency, self-reported quit attempts and use of smoking cessation interventions. Self-report of whether the general practitioner (GP) raised the topic of smoking and made referrals for pharmacological support (prescription of nicotine replacement therapies (NRTs)) or other support (counselling or support groups).

RESULTS

Older smokers (75+ years) were less likely to report that they were attempting to quit smoking or seek help from a GP, despite being less nicotine-dependent. GPs raised smoking as a topic equally across all age groups, but smokers aged 70+ were more likely not to be referred for NRT or other support (ORs relative to 16-54 years; 70-74 years 1.27, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.55; 75-79 years 1.87, 95% CI 1.43 to 2.44; 80+ years 3.16, 95% CI 2.20 to 4.55; p value for trend <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that there are potential missed opportunities in facilitating smoking cessation in older smokers. In this large population-based study, older smokers appeared less interested in quitting and were less likely to be offered support, despite being less addicted to nicotine than younger smokers. It is unclear whether this constitutes inequitable access to services or reflects informed choices by older smokers and their GPs. Future research is needed to understand why older smokers and GPs do not pursue smoking cessation. Service provision should consider how best to reduce these variations, and a stronger effectiveness evidence base is required to support commissioning for this older population so that, where appropriate, older smokers are not missing out on smoking cessation therapies and the health benefits of cessation at older ages.

Migration and social determinants of mental health: Results from the Canadian Health Measures Survey

OBJECTIVES

Studies worldwide point to increased risk of mental health problems among immigrants. However, the data on Canadian immigrants' mental health are ambiguous. To address this, we examined the relationship of both self-perceived mental health and reported diagnosis of mood disorders with age, gender, migration status, time since migration, and social determinants of health factors.

METHODS

We analyzed three cycles of the Canadian Health Measures Survey. Our outcome variables were self-perceived mental health and reported diagnosis of mood disorders. We used weighted logistic regression to model time since migration conditional on age, gender, income, community belonging, education, and employment status for 12 160 participants aged 15-79 years.

RESULTS

Recent (within 5 years) migrants reported better self-perceived mental health (odds ratio 3.98, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.06-7.70) but this effect disappeared with longer time since immigration. Other predictors were older age, higher income, better sense of community belonging, and being employed. Similarly, diagnosis of mood disorders was less likely to be reported in recent migrants (odds ratio 0.23, 95% CI: 0.10-0.53) with some weak evidence that this was also seen among longer-term migrant residents (&gt;10 years). Diagnosis was also associated with older age, being a woman, lower income, weak sense of community belonging, and being unemployed.

DISCUSSION

Our findings indicate that migrants to Canada do not have worse mental health in general, though health and social policies need to attend to the socio-economic determinants, such as low income, unemployment, and a poor sense of community belonging, which contribute to population health outcomes.

Prodromal Parkinsonism and Neurodegenerative Risk Stratification in REM Sleep Behavior Disorder

Objectives

Rapid eye movement (REM) sleep behavior disorder (RBD) is the most specific marker of prodromal alpha-synucleinopathies. We sought to delineate the baseline clinical characteristics of RBD and evaluate risk stratification models.

Methods

Clinical assessments were performed in 171 RBD, 296 control, and 119 untreated Parkinson's (PD) participants. Putative risk measures were assessed as predictors of prodromal neurodegeneration, and Movement Disorders Society (MDS) criteria for prodromal PD were applied. Participants were screened for common leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2)/glucocerebrosidase gene (GBA) gene mutations.

Results

Compared to controls, participants with RBD had higher rates of solvent exposure, head injury, smoking, obesity, and antidepressant use. GBA mutations were more common in RBD, but no LRRK2 mutations were found. RBD participants performed significantly worse than controls on Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS)-III, timed "get-up-and-go", Flamingo test, Sniffin Sticks, and cognitive tests and had worse measures of constipation, quality of life (QOL), and orthostatic hypotension. For all these measures except UPDRS-III, RBD and PD participants were equally impaired. Depression, anxiety, and apathy were worse in RBD compared to PD participants. Stratification of people with RBD according to antidepressant use, obesity, and age altered the odds ratio (OR) of hyposmia compared to controls from 3.4 to 45.5. 74% (95% confidence interval [CI] 66%, 80%) of RBD participants met the MDS criteria for probable prodromal Parkinson's compared to 0.3% (95% CI 0.009%, 2%) of controls.

Conclusions

RBD are impaired across a range of clinical measures consistent with prodromal PD and suggestive of a more severe nonmotor subtype. Clinical risk stratification has the potential to select higher risk patients for neuroprotective interventions.

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing of men in UK general practice: a 10-year longitudinal cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Cross-sectional studies suggest that around 6% of men undergo prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing each year in UK general practice (GP). This longitudinal study aims to determine the cumulative testing pattern of men over a 10-year period and whether this testing can be considered equivalent to screening for prostate cancer (PCa).

SETTING, PARTICIPANTS AND OUTCOME MEASURES

Patient-level data on PSA tests, biopsies and PCa diagnoses were obtained from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) for the years 2002 to 2011. The cumulative risks of PSA testing and of being diagnosed with PCa were estimated for the 10-year study period. Associations of a man's age, region and index of multiple deprivation with the cumulative risk of PSA testing and PCa diagnosis were investigated. Rates of biopsy and diagnosis, following a high test result, were compared with those from the programme of PSA testing in the Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) study.

RESULTS

The 10-year risk of exposure to at least one PSA test in men aged 45 to 69 years in UK GP was 39.2% (95% CI 39.0 to 39.4%). The age-specific risks ranged from 25.2% for men aged 45-49 years to 53.0% for men aged 65-69 years (p for trend <0.001). For those with a PSA level ≥3, a test in UK GP was less likely to result in a biopsy (6%) and/or diagnosis of PCa (15%) compared with ProtecT study participants (85% and 34%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

A high proportion of men aged 45-69 years undergo PSA tests in UK GP: 39% over a 10-year period. A high proportion of these tests appear to be for the investigation of lower urinary tract symptoms and not screening for PCa.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN20141297,NCT02044172.

Variation in Recent Onset Parkinson's Disease: Implications for Prodromal Detection

BACKGROUND

The detection of prodromal Parkinson's disease (PD) is desirable to test drugs with neuroprotective potential, but will be affected by known disease variations.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prevalence of four key non-motor prodromal PD markers, and evaluate the sensitivity of case detection when non-motor screening tools for prodromal PD are implemented in an early clinical PD cohort.

METHODS

Hyposmia (University of Pennsylvania smell identification test ≤15th centile or Sniffin' Sticks at or ≤10th centile corrected for age and sex), rapid-eye movement sleep behaviour disorder (RBD questionnaire >4), constipation (<1 daily spontaneous bowel motion) and depression (Leeds >6) were recorded in recent onset PD cases, and proposed non-motor screening criteria applied.

RESULTS

In 1,719 PD cases, mean age 68.6 years (SD 8.1), 65.5% male, mean disease duration 1.3 years (SD 0.9), 72.2% were hyposmic, 43.3% had RBD, 22.1% depression, and 21.5% constipation. 11.6% of cases had no key non-motor features, 38.8% one, 32.1% two, 15.5% three, and 2.0% all four. Increasing numbers of non-motor features were associated with younger age (p = 0.019), higher motor scores (p < 0.001), more postural instability gait difficulty (PIGD) (p < 0.001), greater cognitive impairment (p < 0.001) and higher total non-motor burden (p < 0.001). Cases with hyposmia alone were younger (p < 0.001), had less severe cognitive (p = 0.006) and other non-motor features (p < 0.001). All screening criteria selected younger patients (p = 0.001, p < 0.001), three of four greater overall non-motor burden (p = 0.005, p < 0.001), and inclusion of RBD more cognitive impairment (p = 0.003, p = 0.001) and PIGD (p = 0.004, p = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Varying sensitivity levels, and age and phenotype selectivity, are found when different non-motor screening methods to detect prodromal PD are applied to an early clinical PD cohort.

Progress toward standardized diagnosis of vascular cognitive impairment: Guidelines from the Vascular Impairment of Cognition Classification Consensus Study

INTRODUCTION

Progress in understanding and management of vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) has been hampered by lack of consensus on diagnosis, reflecting the use of multiple different assessment protocols. A large multinational group of clinicians and researchers participated in a two-phase Vascular Impairment of Cognition Classification Consensus Study (VICCCS) to agree on principles (VICCCS-1) and protocols (VICCCS-2) for diagnosis of VCI. We present VICCCS-2.

METHODS

We used VICCCS-1 principles and published diagnostic guidelines as points of reference for an online Delphi survey aimed at achieving consensus on clinical diagnosis of VCI.

RESULTS

Six survey rounds comprising 65-79 participants agreed guidelines for diagnosis of VICCCS-revised mild and major forms of VCI and endorsed the National Institute of Neurological Disorders-Canadian Stroke Network neuropsychological assessment protocols and recommendations for imaging.

DISCUSSION

The VICCCS-2 suggests standardized use of the National Institute of Neurological Disorders-Canadian Stroke Network recommendations on neuropsychological and imaging assessment for diagnosis of VCI so as to promote research collaboration.

Diurnal cortisol and mental well-being in middle and older age: evidence from four cohort studies

OBJECTIVES

We conducted an individual participant meta-analysis to test the hypothesis that cortisol patterns indicative of dysregulated hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis functioning would be prospectively associated with poorer well-being at follow-up.

SETTING

Four large UK-based cohort studies.

PARTICIPANTS

Those providing valid salivary or serum cortisol samples (n=7515 for morning cortisol; n=1612 for cortisol awakening response) at baseline (age 44-82) and well-being data on the Warwick Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale at follow-up (0-8 years) were included.

RESULTS

Well-being was not associated with morning cortisol, diurnal slope or awakening response though a borderline association with evening cortisol was found. Adjusting for sex and follow-up time, each 1 SD increase in evening cortisol was associated with a -0.47 (95% CI -1.00 to 0.05) point lower well-being. This was attenuated by adjustment for body mass index, smoking and socioeconomic position. Between-study heterogeneity was low.

CONCLUSIONS

This study does not support the hypothesis that diurnal cortisol is prospectively associated with well-being up to 8 years later. However, replication in prospective studies with cortisol samples over multiple days is required.

Changes in marital quality over 6 years and its association with cardiovascular disease risk factors in men: findings from the ALSPAC prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Marital relationship quality has been suggested to have independent effects on cardiovascular health outcomes. This study investigates the association between changes in marital relationship quality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in men.

METHODS

We used data from The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a prospective birth cohort study (Bristol, UK). Our baseline sample was restricted to married study fathers with baseline relationship and covariate data (n=2496). We restricted final analysis (n=620) to those with complete outcome, exposure and covariate data, who were married and confirmed the study child's father at 6.4 years and 18.8 years after baseline. Relationship quality was measured at baseline and 6.4 years and operationalised as consistently good, improving, deteriorating or consistently poor relationship. We measured CVD risk factors of blood pressure, resting heart rate, body mass index, lipid profile and fasting glucose at 18.8 years after baseline.

RESULTS

Improving relationships were associated with lower levels of low-density lipoprotein (-0.25 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.46 to -0.03) and relative reduction of body mass index (-1.07 kg/m², 95% CI -1.73 to -0.42) compared with consistently good relationships, adjusting for confounders. Weaker associations were found between improving relationships and total cholesterol (-0.24 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.48 to 0.00) and diastolic blood pressure (-2.24 mm Hg, 95% CI -4.59 to +0.11). Deteriorating relationships were associated with worsening diastolic blood pressure (+2.74 mm Hg, 95% CI 0.50 to 4.98).

CONCLUSIONS

Improvement and deterioration of longitudinal relationship quality appears associated with respectively positive and negative associations with a range of CVD risk factors.

Is increasing urbanicity associated with changes in breastfeeding duration in rural India? An analysis of cross-sectional household data from the Andhra Pradesh children and parents study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether village-level urbanicity and lower level socioeconomic factors are associated with breastfeeding practices in transitioning rural communities in India.

SETTING

29 villages in Ranga Reddy district, southern India between 2011 and 2014.

PARTICIPANTS

7848 children under 6 years identified via a cross-sectional household survey conducted as part of the Andhra Pradesh Children and Parents Study.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Two key indicators of optimal breastfeeding: termination of exclusive breastfeeding before 6 months and discontinuation of breastfeeding by 24 months. Village urbanicity was classified as low, medium or high according to satellite assessed night-light intensity.

RESULTS

Breastfeeding initiation was almost universal, and approximately two in three children were exclusively breastfed to 6 months and a similar proportion breastfed to 24 months. Using multilevel logistic regression, increasing urbanicity was associated with breastfeeding discontinuation before 24 months (medium urbanicity OR 1.45, 95% CI 0.71 to 2.96; high urbanicity OR 2.96, 95% CI 1.45 to 6.05) but not with early (<6 months) termination of exclusive breastfeeding. Increased maternal education was independently associated with both measures of suboptimal breastfeeding, and higher household socioeconomic position was associated with early termination of exclusive breastfeeding.

CONCLUSION

In this transitional Indian rural community, early stage urbanicity was associated with a shorter duration of breastfeeding. Closer surveillance of changes in breastfeeding practices alongside appropriate intervention strategies are recommended for emerging economies.

Erratum to: Migration and social determinants of mental health: Results from the Canadian Health Measures Survey

There was an error in Tables 2 and 3 of the article "Migration and social determinants of mental health: Results from the Canadian Health Measures Survey". In both Tables 2 and 3, the compared variables (immigrants vs. Canadians) were reported in the reversed order. Comparison of the health of immigrants to Canadians should read: "Migrants 0-5 years vs. Canadians"; "Migrants 6-10 years vs. Canadians"; "Migrants >10 years vs. Canadians". We apologize for this error. The corrected tables appear below.