Utilising random forests in the modelling of Eragrostis curvula presence and absence in an Australian grassland system

Eragrostis curvula is an agronomically and ecologically undesirable perennial tussock grass dispersed across Australia. The objective of this study is to investigate relationships of ecologically relevant abiotic variables with the presence of E. curvula at a landscape scale in the Snowy Monaro region, Australia. Through vegetation surveys across 21 privately owned properties and freely available ancillary data on E. curvula presence, we used seven predictor variables, including Sentinel 2 NDVI reflectance, topography, distance from roads and watercourses and climate, to predict the presence or absence of E. curvula across its invaded range using a random forest (RF) algorithm. Assessment of performance metrics resulted in a pseudo-R squared of 0.96, a kappa of 0.97 and an R squared for out-of-bag samples of 0.67. Temperature had the largest influence on the model's performance, followed by linear features such as highways and rivers. Highways' high importance in the model may indicate that the presence or absence of E. curvula is related to the density of human transit, thus as a vector of E. curvula propagule dispersal. Further, humans' tendency to reside adjacent to rivers may indicate that E. curvula's presence or absence is related to human density and E. curvula's potential to spread via water courses.

Composition of cetacean communities worldwide shapes their contribution to ocean nutrient cycling

Defecation by large whales is known to fertilise oceans with nutrients, stimulating phytoplankton and ecosystem productivity. However, our current understanding of these processes is limited to a few species, nutrients and ecosystems. Here, we investigate the role of cetacean communities in the worldwide biological cycling of two major nutrients and six trace nutrients. We show that cetaceans release more nutrients in mesotrophic to eutrophic temperate waters than in oligotrophic tropical waters, mirroring patterns of ecosystem productivity. The released nutrient cocktails also vary geographically, driven by the composition of cetacean communities. The roles of small cetaceans, deep diving cetaceans and baleen whales differ quantitatively and functionally, with contributions of small cetaceans and deep divers exceeding those of large whales in some areas. The functional diversity of cetacean communities expands beyond their role as top predators to include their role as active nutrient vectors, which might be equally important to local ecosystem dynamics.

Woody plant encroachment modifies carbonate bedrock: field evidence for enhanced weathering and permeability

Little is known about the effects of woody plant encroachment-a recent but pervasive phenomenon-on the hydraulic properties of bedrock substrates. Recent work using stream solute concentrations paired with weathering models suggests that woody plant encroachment accelerates limestone weathering. In this field study, we evaluate this hypothesis by examining bedrock in the Edwards Plateau, an extensive karst landscape in Central Texas. We compared a site that has been heavily encroached by woody plants (mainly Quercus fusiformis and Juniperus ashei), with an adjacent site that has been maintained free of encroachment for the past eight decades. Both sites share the same bedrock, as confirmed by trenching, and originally had very few trees, which enabled us to evaluate how encroachment impacted the evolution of hydraulic properties over a period of no more than 80 years. Using in situ permeability tests in boreholes drilled into the weathered bedrock, we found that the mean saturated hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock was higher-by an order of magnitude-beneath woody plants than in the areas where woody plants have been continuously suppressed. Additionally, woody plant encroachment was associated with greater regolith thickness, greater plant rooting depths, significantly lower rock hardness, and a 24-44% increase in limestone matrix porosity. These findings are strong indicators that woody plant encroachment enhances bedrock weathering, thereby amplifying its permeability-a cycle of mutual reinforcement with the potential for substantial changes within a few decades. Given the importance of shallow bedrock for ecohydrological and biogeochemical processes, the broader impacts of woody plant encroachment on weathering rates and permeability warrant further investigation.

Allometric relationships between stem diameter, height and crown area of associated trees of cocoa agroforests of Ghana

Allometric models which are used to describe the structure of trees in agroforestry systems are usually extrapolated from models developed for trees in forest ecosystems. This makes quantitative assessment of the functions of shade trees in agroforestry systems challenging since increased availability of light and space in these systems may induce structural differences from those growing under forest conditions. We addressed this issue by providing species-specific allometric information on the structural characteristics of associated shade trees on cocoa agroforestry systems and assessed if allometries conformed to theoretical predictions. At the plot level, stand and soil characteristics affecting tree structural characteristics were assessed. The study was conducted in cocoa agroforestry systems at Suhum, Ghana. The height-diameter at breast height (H-DBH) allometry had the best fits (R2 = 53-89%), followed by the crown area (CA)-DBH allometry (R2 = 27-87%) and then the CA-H allometry (R2 = 22-73%). In general, the scaling exponents of the CA-DBH, H-CA and H-DBH allometries conformed to the metabolic scaling theory (MST). However, both the CA-DBH and H-DBH allometries diverged from the geometric similarity model. Though forest tree species had similar crown areas as fruit trees, they were slenderer than fruit trees. Tree slenderness coefficients were positively correlated with soil P, Ca, Cu and the ratios (Ca + Mg):K, (Ca + Mg):(K + Na) and Ca:Mg, but not C:N while DBH and H were correlated with soil P and C:N ratio. Our results show that critical soil nutrients and their ratios affects shade tree structural attributes (e.g. slenderness and CA), which possibly restrict variations in species-specific allometries to a narrow range on cocoa systems. Furthermore, shade tree species richness and density are better predictors of relative canopy projection area (a proxy for shade intensity) than tree species diversity. In conclusion, the results have implications for shade tree species selection, monitoring of woody biomass and maintenance of biodiversity.

Sustainable reference points for multispecies coral reef fisheries

Sustainably managing fisheries requires regular and reliable evaluation of stock status. However, most multispecies reef fisheries around the globe tend to lack research and monitoring capacity, preventing the estimation of sustainable reference points against which stocks can be assessed. Here, combining fish biomass data for >2000 coral reefs, we estimate site-specific sustainable reference points for coral reef fisheries and use these and available catch estimates to assess the status of global coral reef fish stocks. We reveal that >50% of sites and jurisdictions with available information have stocks of conservation concern, having failed at least one fisheries sustainability benchmark. We quantify the trade-offs between biodiversity, fish length, and ecosystem functions relative to key benchmarks and highlight the ecological benefits of increasing sustainability. Our approach yields multispecies sustainable reference points for coral reef fisheries using environmental conditions, a promising means for enhancing the sustainability of the world's coral reef fisheries.

Plant traits and associated data from a warming experiment, a seabird colony, and along elevation in Svalbard

The Arctic is warming at a rate four times the global average, while also being exposed to other global environmental changes, resulting in widespread vegetation and ecosystem change. Integrating functional trait-based approaches with multi-level vegetation, ecosystem, and landscape data enables a holistic understanding of the drivers and consequences of these changes. In two High Arctic study systems near Longyearbyen, Svalbard, a 20-year ITEX warming experiment and elevational gradients with and without nutrient input from nesting seabirds, we collected data on vegetation composition and structure, plant functional traits, ecosystem fluxes, multispectral remote sensing, and microclimate. The dataset contains 1,962 plant records and 16,160 trait measurements from 34 vascular plant taxa, for 9 of which these are the first published trait data. By integrating these comprehensive data, we bridge knowledge gaps and expand trait data coverage, including on intraspecific trait variation. These data can offer insights into ecosystem functioning and provide baselines to assess climate and environmental change impacts. Such knowledge is crucial for effective conservation and management in these vulnerable regions.

The global wildland-urban interface

The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is where buildings and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle1,2. It is where human-environmental conflicts and risks can be concentrated, including the loss of houses and lives to wildfire, habitat loss and fragmentation and the spread of zoonotic diseases3. However, a global analysis of the WUI has been lacking. Here, we present a global map of the 2020 WUI at 10 m resolution using a globally consistent and validated approach based on remote sensing-derived datasets of building area4 and wildland vegetation5. We show that the WUI is a global phenomenon, identify many previously undocumented WUI hotspots and highlight the wide range of population density, land cover types and biomass levels in different parts of the global WUI. The WUI covers only 4.7% of the land surface but is home to nearly half its population (3.5 billion). The WUI is especially widespread in Europe (15% of the land area) and the temperate broadleaf and mixed forests biome (18%). Of all people living near 2003-2020 wildfires (0.4 billion), two thirds have their home in the WUI, most of them in Africa (150 million). Given that wildfire activity is predicted to increase because of climate change in many regions6, there is a need to understand housing growth and vegetation patterns as drivers of WUI change.

Global methane emissions from rivers and streams

Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas and its concentrations have tripled in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution. There is evidence that global warming has increased CH4 emissions from freshwater ecosystems1,2, providing positive feedback to the global climate. Yet for rivers and streams, the controls and the magnitude of CH4 emissions remain highly uncertain3,4. Here we report a spatially explicit global estimate of CH4 emissions from running waters, accounting for 27.9 (16.7-39.7) Tg CH4 per year and roughly equal in magnitude to those of other freshwater systems5,6. Riverine CH4 emissions are not strongly temperature dependent, with low average activation energy (EM = 0.14 eV) compared with that of lakes and wetlands (EM = 0.96 eV)1. By contrast, global patterns of emissions are characterized by large fluxes in high- and low-latitude settings as well as in human-dominated environments. These patterns are explained by edaphic and climate features that are linked to anoxia in and near fluvial habitats, including a high supply of organic matter and water saturation in hydrologically connected soils. Our results highlight the importance of land-water connections in regulating CH4 supply to running waters, which is vulnerable not only to direct human modifications but also to several climate change responses on land.

Feedback loops between 3D vegetation structure and ecological functions of animals

Ecosystems function in a series of feedback loops that can change or maintain vegetation structure. Vegetation structure influences the ecological niche space available to animals, shaping many aspects of behaviour and reproduction. In turn, animals perform ecological functions that shape vegetation structure. However, most studies concerning three-dimensional vegetation structure and animal ecology consider only a single direction of this relationship. Here, we review these separate lines of research and integrate them into a unified concept that describes a feedback mechanism. We also show how remote sensing and animal tracking technologies are now available at the global scale to describe feedback loops and their consequences for ecosystem functioning. An improved understanding of how animals interact with vegetation structure in feedback loops is needed to conserve ecosystems that face major disruptions in response to climate and land-use change.

Experimental determination of concentration factors of Ni, Ru and Sb in the model diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum

This paper describes the experimental determination of concentration factors (CF) for nickel, ruthenium and antimony in the model diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum Bohlin (Bacillariophyceae), which was chosen as a representative of marine phytoplankton. Better determinations of these CF are needed to improve the modelling of marine ecosystems at release points, where radioactive pollutants enter the ecosystem, for more accurate predictions of radiation dose to humans caused by these pollutants. A literature study revealed that the currently implemented values of these CF are based on very scarce data, and a computational sensitivity study showed that the radiation dose caused by radioisotopes of these elements depend strongly on the phytoplankton CF. Nutrient-enriched water samples from Swedish coastal waters were used as a medium for growing of the diatom species P. tricornutum and radioactive isotopes of the studied elements were added to the cultures during the exponential growth phase. The radioactivity in the P. tricornutum and in the culture medium were measured separately and used for determination of CF. Conservative estimates of the CF based on this phytoplankton proxy on the present data are 6400 L/kg for nickel, 20,000 L/kg for ruthenium and 890 L/kg for antimony, with P. tricornutum biomass masses referring to dry weight. The estimates for nickel and ruthenium are similar to previously published values, which underpins the credibility of radiation dose calculations based on these values. The estimate for antimony is uncertain, but also, to our knowledge, represents the first published experimentally based data on this CF.

Increasing landscape heterogeneity as a win-win solution to manage trade-offs in biological control of crop and woodland pests

Agriculture and forestry cover more than 75% of Europe, and invertebrate pests are a costly challenge for these two economic sectors. Landscape management is increasingly promoted as a solution to enhance biological pest control, but little is known on its effects on adjacent crop fields and woodlands. This study aims to explore the effect of the proportion of woodlands and permanent grasslands as well as crop diversity on biological pest control simultaneously in cereals fields and woodland patches, in south-western France. We used different types of sentinel prey as well as bird and carabid community metrics to assess biological pest control potential in these two ecosystems. We first show that land cover variables influence biological pest control both in cereal fields and woodland patches, but have antagonistic effects in the two ecosystems. Although results vary according to the biological control indicator considered, we show that increasing landscape heterogeneity represents a valuable solution to manage trade-offs and promote higher average predation rates across forests and cereal fields. Our study therefore calls for more integrative studies to identify landscape management strategies that enable nature-based solutions across ecosystems.

Experimental impacts of grazing on grassland biodiversity and function are explained by aridity

Grazing by domestic herbivores is the most widespread land use on the planet, and also a major global change driver in grasslands. Yet, experimental evidence on the long-term impacts of livestock grazing on biodiversity and function is largely lacking. Here, we report results from a network of 10 experimental sites from paired grazed and ungrazed grasslands across an aridity gradient, including some of the largest remaining native grasslands on the planet. We show that aridity partly explains the responses of biodiversity and multifunctionality to long-term livestock grazing. Grazing greatly reduced biodiversity and multifunctionality in steppes with higher aridity, while had no effects in steppes with relatively lower aridity. Moreover, we found that long-term grazing further changed the capacity of above- and below-ground biodiversity to explain multifunctionality. Thus, while plant diversity was positively correlated with multifunctionality across grasslands with excluded livestock, soil biodiversity was positively correlated with multifunctionality across grazed grasslands. Together, our cross-site experiment reveals that the impacts of long-term grazing on biodiversity and function depend on aridity levels, with the more arid sites experiencing more negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem multifunctionality. We also highlight the fundamental importance of conserving soil biodiversity for protecting multifunctionality in widespread grazed grasslands.

Widespread and complex drought effects on vegetation physiology inferred from space

The response of vegetation physiology to drought at large spatial scales is poorly understood due to a lack of direct observations. Here, we study vegetation drought responses related to photosynthesis, evaporation, and vegetation water content using remotely sensed data, and we isolate physiological responses using a machine learning technique. We find that vegetation functional decreases are largely driven by the downregulation of vegetation physiology such as stomatal conductance and light use efficiency, with the strongest downregulation in water-limited regions. Vegetation physiological decreases in wet regions also result in a discrepancy between functional and structural changes under severe drought. We find similar patterns of physiological drought response using simulations from a soil-plant-atmosphere continuum model coupled with a radiative transfer model. Observation-derived vegetation physiological responses to drought across space are mainly controlled by aridity and additionally modulated by abnormal hydro-meteorological conditions and vegetation types. Hence, isolating and quantifying vegetation physiological responses to drought enables a better understanding of ecosystem biogeochemical and biophysical feedback in modulating climate change.

Landscape configuration modulates the presence of leaf-cutting ants in eucalypt plantations

Pest responses to landscape complexity show variable patterns globally, primarily related to species traits and specific managed habitats. Leaf-cutting ants (LCAs) are native insects and important pests of plantation forests in South America. We evaluated the responses of LCA nests in young Eucalyptus plantations to different spatial contexts: land uses, interfaces (adjacent land use pairs), agroecosystems, and landscapes. We selected 30 sites in the littoral region of Argentina representing three types of land uses neighboring Eucalyptus plantations: adult eucalypt plantations, citrus plantations, and semi-natural habitats. At each site, we quantified and identified LCA nests and characterized landscape composition and configuration in circles of 250 m radius. LCA nest abundance and presence were similar across different land uses, interfaces, and agroecosystems. Nest presence decreased in landscapes with increasing mean perimeter/area ratio and citrus coverage, whereas LCA abundance showed a similar trend. This indicates that heterogeneous landscapes and those with greater citrus plantation coverage were less likely to have LCA nests. Our findings suggest that landscape configuration was the main predictor of the LCA presence. Understanding the dynamics of LCAs populations and their complex associations with landscape components will contribute to developing successful environmental pest management strategies for plantation forests.

Using interpretable boosting algorithms for modeling environmental and agricultural data

We describe how interpretable boosting algorithms based on ridge-regularized generalized linear models can be used to analyze high-dimensional environmental data. We illustrate this by using environmental, social, human and biophysical data to predict the financial vulnerability of farmers in Chile and Tunisia against climate hazards. We show how group structures can be considered and how interactions can be found in high-dimensional datasets using a novel 2-step boosting approach. The advantages and efficacy of the proposed method are shown and discussed. Results indicate that the presence of interaction effects only improves predictive power when included in two-step boosting. The most important variable in predicting all types of vulnerabilities are natural assets. Other important variables are the type of irrigation, economic assets and the presence of crop damage of near farms.

Biological modification of coastal pH depends on community composition and time

Biological processes play important roles in determining how global changes manifest at local scales. Primary producers can absorb increased CO2 via daytime photosynthesis, modifying pH in aquatic ecosystems. Yet producers and consumers also increase CO2 via respiration. It is unclear whether biological modification of pH differs across the year, and, if so, what biotic and abiotic drivers underlie temporal differences. We addressed these questions using the intensive study of tide pool ecosystems in Alaska, USA, including quarterly surveys of 34 pools over 1 year and monthly surveys of five pools from spring to fall in a second year. We measured physical conditions, community composition, and changes in pH and dissolved oxygen during the day and night. We detected strong temporal patterns in pH dynamics. Our measurements indicate that pH modification varies spatially (between tide pools) and temporally (across months). This variation in pH dynamics mirrored changes in dissolved oxygen and was associated with community composition, including both relative abundance and diversity of benthic producers and consumers, whose role differed across the year, particularly at night. These results highlight the importance of the time of year when considering the ways that community composition influences pH conditions in aquatic ecosystems.

NZTD - The New Zealand Trait Database for shallow-water marine benthic invertebrates

Macrobenthic traits, for example feeding mode, life history, morphology, are increasingly used for determining responses of macrobenthic fauna to environmental change and influences on ecosystem functioning. Yet, trait information is scarce or non-existent in several parts of the world, such as New Zealand. This deficit makes collecting trait data a difficult and time-consuming task, limiting its potential use in trait-based assessments. Here, we present the New Zealand Trait Database (NZTD) for marine benthic invertebrates, the first comprehensive assessment of macrobenthic traits in New Zealand. The NZTD provides trait information for more than 700 macrobenthic taxa, categorised by 18 traits and 77 trait modalities. The NZTD includes five freely downloadable datasets, (1) the macrobenthic trait dataset, with outcomes from a fuzzy coding procedure, (2) the trait source information, (3) the references by taxa, (4) the full references list, and (5) the full taxa list used in the NZTD. Establishing the NZTD closes the trait knowledge gap in New Zealand and facilitates future research applying trait-based approaches to New Zealand's coastal macrofauna.

A multi-predator trophic database for the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

The California Current Trophic Database (CCTD) was developed at NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center in collaboration with numerous diet data contributors. We compiled the CCTD from twenty-four data sets, representing both systematic collections and directed trophic studies. Diet composition data, including stomach and scat samples, were obtained from 105,694 individual predators among 143 taxa collected throughout the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME) from 1967-2019. Predator taxa consist of squids (n = 5), elasmobranchs (n = 13), bony fishes (n = 118), and marine mammals (n = 7). Extensive time series are available for some predators (e.g., California Sea Lion, Pacific Hake, Chinook Salmon). The CCTD represents the largest compilation of raw trophic data within the CCLME, allowing for more refined analyses and modeling studies within this region. Our intention is to further augment and periodically update the dataset as additional historical or contemporary data become available to increase its utility and impact.

Human-caused wolf mortality persists for years after discontinuation of hunting

By the mid-twentieth century, wolves were nearly extinct in the lower 48 states, with a small number surviving in northern Minnesota. After wolves were placed on the endangered species list in 1973, the northern Minnesota wolf population increased and stabilized by the early 2000s. A wolf trophy hunt was introduced in 2012-2014 and then halted by a court order in December 2014. The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources collected wolf radiotelemetry data for the years 2004-2019. Statistical analysis showed that wolf mortality remained close to constant from 2004 until the initiation of the hunt, and that mortality doubled with the initiation of the first hunting and trapping season in 2012, remaining at a nearly constant elevated level through 2019. Notably, average annual wolf mortality increased from 21.7% before wolf hunting seasons (10.0% by human causes and 11.7% natural causes) to 43.4% (35.8% by human causes and 7.6% natural causes). The fine-grained statistical trend implies that human-caused mortality increased sharply during the hunting seasons, while natural mortality initially dropped. After the hunt's discontinuation, human-caused mortality remained higher than prior to the hunting seasons throughout the five years of the available after-hunt radiotelemetry data.

Northern expansion is not compensating for southern declines in North American boreal forests

Climate change is expected to shift the boreal biome northward through expansion at the northern and contraction at the southern boundary respectively. However, biome-scale evidence of such a shift is rare. Here, we used remotely-sensed tree cover data to quantify temporal changes across the North American boreal biome from 2000 to 2019. We reveal a strong north-south asymmetry in tree cover change, coupled with a range shrinkage of tree cover distributions. We found no evidence for tree cover expansion in the northern biome, while tree cover increased markedly in the core of the biome range. By contrast, tree cover declined along the southern biome boundary, where losses were related largely to wildfires and timber logging. We show that these contrasting trends are structural indicators for a possible onset of a biome contraction which may lead to long-term carbon declines.

Tree islands enhance biodiversity and functioning in oil palm landscapes

In the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration1, large knowledge gaps persist on how to increase biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in cash crop-dominated tropical landscapes2. Here, we present findings from a large-scale, 5-year ecosystem restoration experiment in an oil palm landscape enriched with 52 tree islands, encompassing assessments of ten indicators of biodiversity and 19 indicators of ecosystem functioning. Overall, indicators of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, as well as multidiversity and ecosystem multifunctionality, were higher in tree islands compared to conventionally managed oil palm. Larger tree islands led to larger gains in multidiversity through changes in vegetation structure. Furthermore, tree enrichment did not decrease landscape-scale oil palm yield. Our results demonstrate that enriching oil palm-dominated landscapes with tree islands is a promising ecological restoration strategy, yet should not replace the protection of remaining forests.

Linking prokaryotic genome size variation to metabolic potential and environment

While theories and models have appeared to explain genome size as a result of evolutionary processes, little work has shown that genome sizes carry ecological signatures. Our work delves into the ecological implications of microbial genome size variation in benthic and pelagic habitats across environmental gradients of the brackish Baltic Sea. While depth is significantly associated with genome size in benthic and pelagic brackish metagenomes, salinity is only correlated to genome size in benthic metagenomes. Overall, we confirm that prokaryotic genome sizes in Baltic sediments (3.47 Mbp) are significantly bigger than in the water column (2.96 Mbp). While benthic genomes have a higher number of functions than pelagic genomes, the smallest genomes coded for a higher number of module steps per Mbp for most of the functions irrespective of their environment. Some examples of this functions are amino acid metabolism and central carbohydrate metabolism. However, we observed that nitrogen metabolism was almost absent in pelagic genomes and was mostly present in benthic genomes. Finally, we also show that Bacteria inhabiting Baltic sediments and water column not only differ in taxonomy, but also in their metabolic potential, such as the Wood-Ljungdahl pathway or the presence of different hydrogenases. Our work shows how microbial genome size is linked to abiotic factors in the environment, metabolic potential and taxonomic identity of Bacteria and Archaea within aquatic ecosystems.

Do Nitrogen and Phosphorus Additions Affect Nitrogen Fixation Associated with Tropical Mosses?

Tropical cloud forests are characterized by abundant and biodiverse mosses which grow epiphytically as well as on the ground. Nitrogen (N)-fixing cyanobacteria live in association with most mosses, and contribute greatly to the N pool via biological nitrogen fixation (BNF). However, the availability of nutrients, especially N and phosphorus (P), can influence BNF rates drastically. To evaluate the effects of increased N and P availability on BNF in mosses, we conducted a laboratory experiment where we added N and P, in isolation and combined, to three mosses (Campylopus sp., Dicranum sp. and Thuidium peruvianum) collected from a cloud forest in Peru. Our results show that N addition almost completely inhibited BNF within a day, whereas P addition caused variable results across moss species. Low N₂ fixation rates were observed in Campylopus sp. across the experiment. BNF in Dicranum sp. was decreased by all nutrients, while P additions seemed to promote BNF in T. peruvianum. Hence, each of the three mosses contributes distinctively to the ecosystem N pool depending on nutrient availability. Moreover, increased N input will likely significantly decrease BNF associated with mosses also in tropical cloud forests, thereby limiting N input to these ecosystems via the moss-cyanobacteria pathway.

Litter accumulation and fire risks show direct and indirect climate-dependence at continental scale

Litter decomposition / accumulation are rate limiting steps in soil formation, carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling and fire risk in temperate forests, highlighting the importance of robust predictive models at all geographic scales. Using a data set for the Australian continent, we show that among a range of models, >60% of the variance in litter mass over a 40-year time span can be accounted for by a parsimonious model with elapsed time, and indices of aridity and litter quality, as independent drivers. Aridity is an important driver of variation across large geographic and climatic ranges while litter quality shows emergent properties of climate-dependence. Up to 90% of variance in litter mass for individual forest types can be explained using models of identical structure. Results provide guidance for future decomposition studies. Algorithms reported here can significantly improve accuracy and reliability of predictions of carbon and nutrient dynamics and fire risk.

Analysis of ecological quality changes and influencing factors in Xiangjiang River Basin

The Xiangjiang River Basin is an important part of the Yangtze River Basin and an important area in Hunan Province. Thus, taking steps to protect the ecological sustainability of the Xiangjiang River Basin, such as the construction of the protection of ecological security in Hunan Province and the Yangtze River Protection Law, is important for national projects However, research on the ecological quality of the Xiangjiang River Basin is mostly biased toward the evaluation of ecosystem services or an individual ecological index. Furthermore, a long-term evaluation of multiple indicators is lacking. Therefore, based on Google Earth Engine and geographic detectors, the remote sensing ecological index was used to evaluate this area. The year-by-year research on the Xiangjiang River Basin from 2001 to 2020 clarified its past ecological quality change trend, explored the reasons for the ecological quality change, and provided a basis for protecting its ecological quality. The following results are presented. (1) Regarding spatial distribution, areas with poor ecological environments are mainly distributed at the centers of Chang-Zhu-Tan, Hengyang, and various districts and counties. (2) Regarding the time variation, the ecological quality of the Xiangjiang River Basin from 2001 to 2020 showed a slight downward trend, with a downward slope of approximately - 0.0000357143; a rapid increase, with a growth rate of approximately 0.00395; And an overall improvement over 20 years. The areas with declining ecological quality are mainly located in the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration, the city center of Hengyang, and the county centers of various county towns. (3) The factor detection results show that human factors play a key role in population density and land use, with average q values of 0.429 and 0.353, respectively. Among natural factors, elevation and slope play a key role, with average q values of 0.230 and 0.351, respectively; hence, Land use directly affect on the ecological quality in a location. These findings will provide important information for managers to formulate ecological restoration measures for the Xiangjiang River.