Defining and Predicting High Cost Utilization in Children's Outpatient Mental Health Services

Little is known about high-cost service users in the context of youth outpatient mental health, despite the fact that they account for a large proportion of overall mental healthcare expenditures. A nuanced understanding of these users is critical to develop and implement tailored services, as well as to inform relevant policies. This study aims to characterize high-cost service users by examining demographic factors, diagnoses, and service type use. Administrative service use data were extracted from a large County Department of Behavioral Health Services database. Latent profile analyses suggest a four-profile solution primarily distinguished by youth age and diagnostic complexity. Study findings have implications for defining high-cost service users and key targets for efforts aiming to improve outcomes for these youth.

Development of a national survey on foot involvement among people with psoriatic arthritis in Australia using a best practice approach: a survey development protocol

BACKGROUND

Limited research to date has defined the nature and extent of foot involvement in a psoriatic arthritis-specific population in Australia and the scale of the problem remains unclear. Survey research provides the ideal opportunity to sample a large population over a wide geographical area. Although quality criteria for survey research have been developed, research shows that adherence is low and that survey studies are poorly reported in peer-reviewed survey articles, which limits the ability to inform future survey design. The objective of this paper was to develop a national survey about foot involvement in people with psoriatic arthritis using a best practice approach. This is a methods paper for the development of survey research.

METHODS

A systematic, multi-stage process of survey development was undertaken, which comprised 3 phases: 1) the generation of the conceptual framework and survey content; 2) the development of the survey and pre-testing and 3) development of the survey dissemination strategy. A survey best practice approach was adopted using iterative pre-testing techniques, which included; cognitive debriefing, cultural sensitivity review, survey design expert validation, subject expert validation and pilot testing. Targeted postal and online survey dissemination strategies were developed a priori to optimise the response rates anticipated.

RESULTS

A 59-item survey with 8 sections was developed. Findings demonstrated a high survey response (n = 649), high data completeness (83% of respondents reached the end of the survey) and low rates of missing data (below 5% for 95% of respondents). Extensive survey pre-testing among the target population, health professionals and experts improved the overall quality, content validity, functioning and representativeness of the survey instrument, which optimised potential response rates. Clear audit trails that mapped the analytical process at each stage substantiated the rigour of the survey development methods. Robust strategies for sampling, survey dissemination and community engagement were deemed to have made a powerful contribution to response rates and the scale of information collected.

CONCLUSIONS

Robust patient-centred methods in survey design were used to create a novel, high-quality survey to comprehensively evaluate psoriatic arthritis-related foot involvement. Transparent and precise description of the survey design and dissemination methods provides useful information to other researchers embarking on survey design in healthcare.

Factors associated with underweight, overweight, and obesity in reproductive age Tanzanian women

BACKGROUND

Underweight, overweight, and obesity are major public health challenges among reproductive-age women of lower- and middle-income countries (including Tanzania). In those settings, obesogenic factors (attributes that promote excessive body weight gain) are increasing in the context of an existing high burden of undernutrition. The present study investigated factors associated with underweight, overweight, and obesity among reproductive age women in Tanzania.

METHODS

This study used 2015-16 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey data (n = 11735). To account for the hierarchical nature of the data (i.e., reproductive age women nested within clusters), multilevel multinomial logistic regression models were used to investigate the association between individual-level (socioeconomic, demographic and behavioural) and community-level factors with underweight, overweight, and obesity.

RESULTS

Reproductive age women who were informally employed (relative risk ratio [RRR] = 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.64, 0.96), those who were currently married (RRR = 0.59; 95% CI: 0.43, 0.82) and those who used contraceptives (RRR = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.54, 0.90) were less likely to be underweight. Reproductive age women who attained secondary or higher education (RRR = 1.48; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.96), those who resided in wealthier households (RRR = 2.31; 95% CI: 1.78, 3.03) and those who watched the television (RRR = 1.26; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.50) were more likely to be overweight. The risk of experiencing obesity was higher among reproductive age women who attained secondary or higher education (RRR = 1.79; 95% CI: 1.23, 2.61), those who were formally employed (RRR = 1.50; 95% CI: 1.14, 1.98), those who resided in wealthier households (RRR = 4.77; 95% CI: 3.03, 7.50), those who used alcohol (RRR = 1.43; 95% CI: 1.12, 1.82) and/or watched the television (RRR = 1.70; 95% CI: 1.35, 2.13).

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that relevant government jurisdictions need to identify, promote, and implement evidence-based interventions that can simultaneously address underweight and overweight/obesity among reproductive age women in Tanzania.

Psychosocial and cultural needs of children with intellectual disability and their families among the Syrian refugee population in Turkey

BACKGROUND

Turkey is the country hosting the largest number of refugees from Syria, with currently 3 571 175 million persons. The general health needs of the refugees are being addressed; however, people with intellectual disabilities (IDs), particularly children, are relatively missed. The aim of this study was to identify medical, psychological and social needs of children with ID and their families, among the Syrian refugee population in Turkey, and to define psychosocial and cultural needs for planning of future services.

METHODS

One hundred forty-two children (67.6% men; mean age 90.5 months) diagnosed with intellectual disorders were included in the study. Family Needs Survey, with additional open-ended and close-ended questions, was used to evaluate family needs. Items from Developmental Disabilities Profile-2 were used to evaluate and screen cognitive, motor and language development as well as medical concerns and behavioural problems. Data on sociodemographic characteristics were also collected.

RESULTS

The highest needs were identified in information and financial needs domains. Other indicated needs were on child care and community services domains. The least indicated items were on family and social support and explaining to others domains. An average of 63.5% of the respondents definitely agreed with the Family Needs Survey items. The overall level of identification of need items was higher than that in some previous studies, indicating the level of unmet needs of the studied population. Family income, parents' employment and parents' education were not significantly associated with unmet family needs. Special education services were unreachable for most of the families in the study.

CONCLUSIONS

Families reported the highest needs in information and financial needs domains. The overall level of identification of needs was higher than that in some previous studies, indicating the level of unmet needs of the studied population. The majority of the parents reported that they had sufficient family and social support, which might be a protective factor for parental mental health. Parents' Turkish fluency was very significantly associated with every domain of unmet needs. Language barriers and translation problems had significant negative effects on families, as confirmed by the answers to open-ended questions. Another important factor identified was access to service professionals. Special education services, sorely needed for most of the families, could not always be reached. Although the progress of children who had received special education was not very encouraging, it was better than those who did not receive it. The first implication of the study is that increasing Turkish proficiency or providing high-quality and consistent translation services is vital for this category of children with ID. The second implication is that information and financial needs must be met with priority. Information must be tailored for each child's needs and developmental level. Special education and physical therapy must be more accessible and at higher quality.

[Impact of Spanish Public Health Measures on Emergency Visits and COVID- 19 diagnosed cases during the pandemic in Madrid]

OBJECTIVE

Changes in Public Health recommendations may have changed the number of emergency visits and COVID-19 diagnosed cases in an Emergency Department in Madrid.

METHODS

This retrospective case series study included all consecutive patients in a tertiary and urban ED in Madrid from 1st to 31st March. The sample was divided: NonCOVID-19, Non-investigated COVID-19, Possible COVID-19, Probable COVID-19, Confirmed COVID-19. Differences between public health periods were tested by ANOVA for each cohort, and by ANCOVA including the number of PCR tests (%) as covariate.

RESULTS

A total of 7,163 (4,071 Non-COVID-19, 563 Non-investigated COVID-19, 870 Possible, 648 Probable and 1,011 Confirmed COVID-19) cases were included. Public Health measurements applied during each period showed a clear effect on the case proportion for the five cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The variability of case definitions and diagnostic test criteria may have impact on the number of emergency visits and COVID-19 diagnosed cases in Emergency Department.

Medication management in the context of mental illness: an exploratory study of young people living in Australia

BACKGROUND

Young people face significant challenges when managing a mental illness, such as acquiring treatment autonomy, being inexperienced users of the healthcare system and associated peer-related stigma. While medication use can be challenging in its own right, there is comparatively little information about the associated experiences and needs of young people with mental illness, particularly in the Australian context. This exploratory study will provide valuable insight into how this group is currently supported in relation to medication use.

METHODS

Young people (aged 14-25 years) who had used a prescription medication for any mental illness for a minimum of 2 months were eligible to participate in this qualitative exploratory study. Semi-structured interviews were conducted between October 2017-September 2018 in consultation rooms at two youth-focused mental health support organisations in Brisbane, Queensland. Interview questions explored how participants managed their medication and related experiences. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and descriptively analysed using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Eighteen young people discussed their lived experience during interviews averaging 50 min in duration. Finding the right medication that reduced symptom severity with minimal side-effects was identified as a complex experience for many, particularly when there was a lack of information, support or reduced financial capacity. Young people described a range of strategies to manage medication side-effects, changes and to support routine medication use.

CONCLUSIONS

Young people persevered with taking medication to manage a mental illness within a healthcare system that does not adequately support this vulnerable population. There remains a clear directive for healthcare professionals to provide credible information that proactively engages young people as healthcare participants, and for policy makers to consider financial burden for this population with limited financial capacity.

Besoins non satisfaits en matière de planification familiale : déterminants individuels et contextuels au Burkina Faso

INTRODUCTION

In Burkina Faso, despite actions to improve women’s health, the percentage of those with unmet needs in terms of family planning remains high (35.6% in 2015 to 20.2% in 2018 according to projections from the Performance Monitoring and Accountability project [PMA2014-15/Burkina]).

METHODS

The study used data from demographic and public health investigations as well as multiple indicator cluster surveys for Burkina Faso in 2010. Two analysis techniques were used: a Multiple Correspondence Analysis, then an Ascending Hierarchical Classification (AHC). A multi-level logistic regression model was used to estimate the net effects of individual and environmental factors associated with these unmet needs.

RESULTS

The analysis of the random effects shows that the propensity of having unmet needs in terms of family planning varies considerable from one household to another and from one enumeration zone to another. The net effects also show that women between the ages of 35 and 49 are 6.94 times at risk of having unmet needs in terms of limiting births than for those aged 20 to 34. For the unmet need of spacing births, this risk is estimated at 69% less high for women between 35 to 49 years of age than for those aged 15 to 19.

CONCLUSION

It is necessary to strengthen local awareness programs geared towards women and their spouses about the benefits and the importance of family planning, while taking into account their sociodemographic characteristics (age, parity, ethnic background, living environment).

Targeted client communication via mobile devices for improving sexual and reproductive health

BACKGROUND

The burden of poor sexual and reproductive health (SRH) worldwide is substantial, disproportionately affecting those living in low- and middle-income countries. Targeted client communication (TCC) delivered via mobile devices (MD) (TCCMD) may improve the health behaviours and service use important for sexual and reproductive health.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of TCC via MD on adolescents' knowledge, and on adolescents' and adults' sexual and reproductive health behaviour, health service use, and health and well-being.

SEARCH METHODS

In July/August 2017, we searched five databases including The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE and Embase. We also searched two trial registries. A search update was carried out in July 2019 and potentially relevant studies are awaiting classification.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials of TCC via MD to improve sexual and reproductive health behaviour, health service use, and health and well-being. Eligible comparators were standard care or no intervention, non-digital TCC, and digital non-targeted communication.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard methodological procedures recommended by Cochrane, although data extraction and risk of bias assessments were carried out by one person only and cross-checked by a second. We have presented results separately for adult and adolescent populations, and for each comparison.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 40 trials (27 among adult populations and 13 among adolescent populations) with a total of 26,854 participants. All but one of the trials among adolescent populations were conducted in high-income countries. Trials among adult populations were conducted in a range of high- to low-income countries. Among adolescents, nine interventions were delivered solely through text messages; four interventions tested text messages in combination with another communication channel, such as emails, multimedia messaging, or voice calls; and one intervention used voice calls alone. Among adults, 20 interventions were delivered through text messages; two through a combination of text messages and voice calls; and the rest were delivered through other channels such as voice calls, multimedia messaging, interactive voice response, and instant messaging services. Adolescent populations TCCMD versus standard care TCCMD may increase sexual health knowledge (risk ratio (RR) 1.45, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23 to 1.71; low-certainty evidence). TCCMD may modestly increase contraception use (RR 1.19, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.35; low-certainty evidence). The effects on condom use, antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence, and health service use are uncertain due to very low-certainty evidence. The effects on abortion and STI rates are unknown due to lack of studies. TCCMD versus non-digital TCC (e.g. pamphlets) The effects of TCCMD on behaviour (contraception use, condom use, ART adherence), service use, health and wellbeing (abortion and STI rates) are unknown due to lack of studies for this comparison. TCCMD versus digital non-targeted communication The effects on sexual health knowledge, condom and contraceptive use are uncertain due to very low-certainty evidence. Interventions may increase health service use (attendance for STI/HIV testing, RR 1.61, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.40; low-certainty evidence). The intervention may be beneficial for reducing STI rates (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.28 to 1.33; low-certainty evidence), but the confidence interval encompasses both benefit and harm. The effects on abortion rates and on ART adherence are unknown due to lack of studies. We are uncertain whether TCCMD results in unintended consequences due to lack of evidence. Adult populations TCCMD versus standard care For health behaviours, TCCMD may modestly increase contraception use at 12 months (RR 1.17, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.48) and may reduce repeat abortion (RR 0.68 95% CI 0.28 to 1.66), though the confidence interval encompasses benefit and harm (low-certainty evidence). The effect on condom use is uncertain. No study measured the impact of this intervention on STI rates. TCCMD may modestly increase ART adherence (RR 1.13, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.32, low-certainty evidence, and standardised mean difference 0.44, 95% CI -0.14 to 1.02, low-certainty evidence). TCCMD may modestly increase health service utilisation (RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.31; low-certainty evidence), but there was substantial heterogeneity (I² = 85%), with mixed results according to type of service utilisation (i.e. attendance for STI testing; HIV treatment; voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC); VMMC post-operative visit; post-abortion care). For health and well-being outcomes, there may be little or no effect on CD4 count (mean difference 13.99, 95% CI -8.65 to 36.63; low-certainty evidence) and a slight reduction in virological failure (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.01; low-certainty evidence). TCCMD versus non-digital TCC No studies reported STI rates, condom use, ART adherence, abortion rates, or contraceptive use as outcomes for this comparison. TCCMD may modestly increase in service attendance overall (RR: 1.12, 95% CI 0.92-1.35, low certainty evidence), however the confidence interval encompasses benefit and harm. TCCMD versus digital non-targeted communication No studies reported STI rates, condom use, ART adherence, abortion rates, or contraceptive use as outcomes for this comparison. TCCMD may increase service utilisation overall (RR: 1.71, 95% CI 0.67-4.38, low certainty evidence), however the confidence interval encompasses benefit and harm and there was considerable heterogeneity (I² = 72%), with mixed results according to type of service utilisation (STI/HIV testing, and VMMC). Few studies reported on unintended consequences. One study reported that a participant withdrew from the intervention as they felt it compromised their undisclosed HIV status.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

TCCMD may improve some outcomes but the evidence is of low certainty. The effect on most outcomes is uncertain/unknown due to very low certainty evidence or lack of evidence. High quality, adequately powered trials and cost effectiveness analyses are required to reliably ascertain the effects and relative benefits of TCC delivered by mobile devices. Given the sensitivity and stigma associated with sexual and reproductive health future studies should measure unintended consequences, such as partner violence or breaches of confidentiality.

NEDOCS: is it really useful for detecting emergency department overcrowding today?

The Emergency Department (ED) overcrowding is an ongoing problem all over the world. The scoring systems are available for the detection of this problem. This study aims to test the applicability of the National Emergency Department Overcrowding Study (NEDOCS) scoring system, one of the scoring systems that evaluate the ED overcrowding.In this prospective observational study, the survey was applied on on-duty doctors, nurses, paramedics, intern doctors, and ward persons working in a University Adult Emergency Department and agreed to participate in the study, between certain hours during the day and the NEDOCS score was calculated simultaneously. The demographic characteristics of the on-duty staff, overcrowding of ED, and the number of the on-duty staff members were recorded in the questionnaires.During the study, 153 measurements were performed, and 3221 questionnaires were filled. The NEDOCS mean score was determined as 101.59 and the most reached result was "extremely busy but not overcrowded" (32%). The ED was rated mostly as "busy" (33.7%) by the on-duty staff. A significant difference was found between ED overcrowding and NEDOCS score. There is a significant difference between ED overcrowding and on-duty emergency nurse and intern doctor count.The NEDOCS score is not suitable for evaluating ED overcrowding. Accurate determination of the ED overcrowding is very important to avoid the negative consequences of the ED overcrowding. Increasing emergency nurse and intern doctor count will decrease ED overcrowding. Also, there is an urgent need to constitute local hospitals and also public health policies to satisfy the increasingly ED's presentations.

Health system collapse 45 days after the detection of COVID-19 in Ceará, Northeast Brazil: a preliminary analysis

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 emerged in late 2019 and quickly became a serious public health problem worldwide. This study aim to describe the epidemiological course of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 and their impact on hospital bed occupancy rates in the first 45 days of the epidemic in the state of Ceará, Northeastern Brazil.

METHODS

The study used an ecological design with data gathered from multiple government and health care sources. Data were analyzed using Epi Info software.

RESULTS

The first cases were confirmed on March 15, 2020. After 45 days, 37,268 cases reported in 85.9% of Ceará's municipalities, with 1,019 deaths. Laboratory test positivity reached 84.8% at the end of April, a period in which more than 700 daily tests were processed. The average age of cases was 67 (<1 - 101) years, most occurred in a hospital environment (91.9%), and 58% required hospitalization in an ICU bed. The average time between the onset of symptoms and death was 18 (1 - 56) days. Patients who died in the hospital had spent an average of six (0 - 40) days hospitalized. Across Ceará, the bed occupancy rate reached 71.3% in the wards and 80.5% in the ICU.

CONCLUSIONS

The first 45 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ceará revealed a large number of cases and deaths, spreading initially among the population with a high socioeconomic status. Despite the efforts by the health services and social isolation measures the health system still collapsed.

Health and social interventions in the context of support and control: The experiences of marginalised people who use drugs in Australia

People who use illicit drugs frequently become targets for welfare intervention, often positioned both as complicit in the reproduction of intergenerational poverty and marginalisation, and as sources of hope for interrupting such patterns. This article draws on empirical research exploring the experiences of highly marginalised people with histories of illicit drug-use to investigate how they negotiate service encounters in the context of the participants' previous experiences with welfare interventions. In doing so, the article seeks to texture the conception of the support and control nexus, drawing out the systemic and service level factors of welfare services which inhibit people who use drugs from benefitting from available support. We conducted 12 in-depth interviews with participants subject to interventions by health, social or legal services between July and September 2018. All interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and coded in NVivo. Transcripts were analysed using a grounded theory approach where data were subject to an iterative process of constant comparisons to identify emergent themes and theoretical concepts. The findings suggest that the blending of welfare services and systems of control has unintended and often negative consequences for highly marginalised people. In effect, the drug treatment programme's aims of assisting people to reduce harm and increase stability are significantly undermined by control mechanisms such as mandatory reporting policies. A better understanding of the ways in which welfare service processes alienate marginalised people from seeking support, as well as from benefitting from the support available, might provide a way to address these concerns.

Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the UK. Projecting the size of an unmitigated epidemic and the potential effect of different control measures has been crucial to support evidence-based policy making during the early stages of the epidemic. This study assesses the potential impact of different control measures for mitigating the burden of COVID-19 in the UK.

METHODS

We used a stochastic age-structured transmission model to explore a range of intervention scenarios, tracking 66·4 million people aggregated to 186 county-level administrative units in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. The four base interventions modelled were school closures, physical distancing, shielding of people aged 70 years or older, and self-isolation of symptomatic cases. We also modelled the combination of these interventions, as well as a programme of intensive interventions with phased lockdown-type restrictions that substantially limited contacts outside of the home for repeated periods. We simulated different triggers for the introduction of interventions, and estimated the impact of varying adherence to interventions across counties. For each scenario, we projected estimated new cases over time, patients requiring inpatient and critical care (ie, admission to the intensive care units [ICU]) treatment, and deaths, and compared the effect of each intervention on the basic reproduction number, R0.

FINDINGS

We projected a median unmitigated burden of 23 million (95% prediction interval 13-30) clinical cases and 350 000 deaths (170 000-480 000) due to COVID-19 in the UK by December, 2021. We found that the four base interventions were each likely to decrease R0, but not sufficiently to prevent ICU demand from exceeding health service capacity. The combined intervention was more effective at reducing R0, but only lockdown periods were sufficient to bring R0 near or below 1; the most stringent lockdown scenario resulted in a projected 120 000 cases (46 000-700 000) and 50 000 deaths (9300-160 000). Intensive interventions with lockdown periods would need to be in place for a large proportion of the coming year to prevent health-care demand exceeding availability.

INTERPRETATION

The characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 mean that extreme measures are probably required to bring the epidemic under control and to prevent very large numbers of deaths and an excess of demand on hospital beds, especially those in ICUs.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council.

Evaluating the implementation of an early supported discharge (ESD) program for stroke survivors: A mixed methods longitudinal case study

BACKGROUND

Early supported discharge (ESD) models of care for stroke survivors coordinate inpatient and community services, with the aim of reducing length of stay. While there is an established evidence base around the clinical outcomes of ESD), less is known about the implementation of this approach into existing stroke care service. The aim of this case study was to describe staff perceptions of the implementation of an ESD model of care for stroke survivors at a large metropolitan public hospital in Australia.

METHODS

This case study utilised a mixed methods design, which was designed in explicit alignment with the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR). Participants included staff that referred patients for ESD, and staff involved in the planning, implementation or delivery of ESD. Survey data was collected at three time points (ESD commencement, 3 months and 6 months), and focus groups were undertaken at the conclusion of the study. All quantitative data was analysed descriptive, while qualitative data was evaluated using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Results from both sources of data identified changes in staff perceptions of ESD implementation over time. While very few changes were statistically significant, they were diverse patterns of change across the CFIR constructs over time. The characteristics of individuals and ESD characteristics attracted consistently positive perceptions, while patient needs and resources was the most prevalent theme within the data. While perceptions of factors related to the inner setting were mixed, there was a steady improvement in perceptions about the process across the later stages of implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

The sophistication of knowledge translation and implementation in modern complex healthcare environments is highlighted by the multiple interactions between the CFIR domains and constructs. While the implementation process described was generally positive and effective, using the CFIR as a framework confirmed that it also entailed some challenges and unanticipated outcomes.

Prediction modelling studies for medical usage rates in mass gatherings: A systematic review

Background

Mass gathering manifestations attended by large crowds are an increasingly common feature of society. In parallel, an increased number of studies have been conducted that developed and/or validated a model to predict medical usage rates at these manifestations.

Aims

To conduct a systematic review to screen, analyse and critically appraise those studies that developed or validated a multivariable statistical model to predict medical usage rates at mass gatherings. To identify those biomedical, psychosocial and environmental predictors that are associated with increased medical usage rates and to summarise the predictive performance of the models.

Method

We searched for relevant prediction modelling studies in six databases. The predictors from multivariable regression models were listed for each medical usage rate outcome (i.e. patient presentation rate (PPR), transfer to hospital rate (TTHR) and the incidence of new injuries). The GRADE methodology (Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation) was used to assess the certainty of evidence.

Results

We identified 7,036 references and finally included 16 prediction models which were developed (n = 13) or validated (n = 3) in the USA (n = 8), Australia (n = 4), Japan (n = 1), Singapore (n = 1), South Africa (n = 1) and The Netherlands (n = 1), with a combined audience of >48 million people in >1700 mass gatherings. Variables to predict medical usage rates were biomedical (i.e. age, gender, level of competition, training characteristics and type of injury) and environmental predictors (i.e. crowd size, accommodation, weather, free water availability, time of the manifestation and type of the manifestation) (low-certainty evidence). Evidence from 3 studies indicated that using Arbon’s or Zeitz’ model in other contexts significantly over- or underestimated medical usage rates (from 22% overestimation to 81% underestimation).

Conclusions

This systematic review identified multivariable models with biomedical and environmental predictors for medical usage rates at mass gatherings. Since the overall certainty of the evidence is low and the predictive performance is generally poor, proper development and validation of a context-specific model is recommended.

Healthcare seeking for chronic illness among adult slum dwellers in Bangladesh: A descriptive cross-sectional study in two urban settings

Introduction

Accompanying rapid urbanization in Bangladesh are inequities in health and healthcare which are most visibly manifested in slums or low-income settlements. This study examines socioeconomic, demographic and geographic patterns of self-reported chronic illness and healthcare seeking among adult slum dwellers in Bangladesh. Understanding these patterns is critical in designing more equitable urban health systems and in enabling the country’s goal of Universal Health Coverage by 2030.

Methods

This descriptive cross-sectional study compares survey data from slum settlements located in two urban sites in Bangladesh, Tongi and Sylhet. Reported chronic illness symptoms and associated healthcare-seeking strategies are compared, and the catastrophic impact of household healthcare expenditures are assessed.

Results

Significant differences in healthcare-seeking for chronic illness were apparent both within and between slum settlements related to sex, wealth score (PPI), and location. Women were more likely to use private clinics than men. Compared to poorer residents, those from wealthier households sought care to a greater extent in private clinics, while poorer households relied more on drug shops and public hospitals. Chronic symptoms also differed. A greater prevalence of musculoskeletal, respiratory, digestive and neurological symptoms was reported among those with lower PPIs. In both slum sites, reliance on the private healthcare market was widespread, but greater in industrialized Tongi. Tongi also experienced a higher probability of catastrophic expenditure than Sylhet.

Conclusions

Study results point to the value of understanding context-specific health-seeking patterns for chronic illness when designing delivery strategies to address the growing burden of NCDs in slum environments. Slums are complex social and geographic entities and cannot be generalized. Priority attention should be focused on developing chronic care services that meet the needs of the working poor in terms of proximity, opening hours, quality, and cost.

Exploring the Demand-Side Factors Associated with the Use of Implants in Kenya

We explore the demand-side factors associated with the use of implants in Kenya given the notable rapid increase in uptake of the method in the country. Data are from a longitudinal study conducted among married or cohabiting women aged 15-39 years at the time of recruitment in one rural (2,424 women) and one urban (2,812 women) site. Analysis entails descriptive statistics and estimation of multivariate logistic regression models. The results show that the key demand-side factors associated with the use of implants were low discontinuation of the method compared with alternatives and strong motivation on the part of the women for long-term spacing of births. However, implants had no perceived advantages over the main alternative methods in terms of beliefs about possible damage to health or unpleasant side effects or in terms of satisfaction with use. The findings suggest that addressing concerns about safety for long-term use and for health may increase demand for implants in particular and long-acting reversible contraceptives in general in the study settings or in similar contexts, especially among women who desire long-term spacing of births.

A Rapid Assessment Procedure to Develop A Non-Communicable Disease Prevention Pilot Health Communications Project Using E- and M-Health Communications in Pohnpei State, Federated States of Micronesia

Pohnpei State of the Federated States of Micronesia, located in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean, has limited health research infrastructure; chronic non-communicable diseases (NCD) such as diabetes, heart disease, and cancer are a concern. Over 73% of Pohnpei's population is overweight or obese. E- and m- (mobile) health interventions are becoming more popular in low and middle income countries. A Rapid Assessment Procedure was conducted for formative research to identify the enabling factors and challenges related to health communication and technology in Pohnpei to address NCD prevention. Thirty-seven local stakeholders were identified through snowball sampling for interviews and group discussions about e-health readiness and NCD priorities, held in local settings. Interviews were audio recorded, with field notes taken. Data were iteratively coded using DEDOOSE. Diabetes emerged as the most serious NCD issue because both the health system and local community are having to deal with the complications and consequences. Stakeholders recommended that prevention should be integrated with diabetes treatment. Local health workers' teaching evidence-based diabetes prevention and other health promotion education were through handheld (mobile devices) was identified. The ability to readily access evidence-based health education materials and modules is compatible with community approaches providing tailored, individual and small group education and social support. This approach may serve as a key component of local NCD prevention communications initiatives integral to prevent diabetes and its complications as remote Small Island Nations face burgeoning NCD epidemics and dramatic shifts in diet and activity.

Population ageing and mortality during 1990-2017: A global decomposition analysis

BACKGROUND

As the number of older people globally increases, health systems need to be reformed to meet the growing need for medical resources. A few previous studies reported varying health impacts of population ageing, but they focused only on limited countries and diseases. We comprehensively quantify the impact of population ageing on mortality for 195 countries/territories and 169 causes of death.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017), this study derived the total number of deaths and population size for each year from 1990 to 2017. A decomposition method was used to attribute changes in total deaths to population growth, population ageing, and mortality change between 1990 and each subsequent year from 1991 through 2017, for 195 countries/territories and for countries grouped by World Bank economic development level. For countries with increases in deaths related to population ageing, we calculated the ratio of deaths attributed to mortality change to those attributed to population ageing. The proportion of people aged 65 years and older increased globally from 6.1% to 8.8%, and the number of global deaths increased by 9 million, between 1990 and 2017. Compared to 1990, 12 million additional global deaths in 2017 were associated with population ageing, corresponding to 27.9% of total global deaths. Population ageing was associated with increases in deaths in high-, upper-middle-, and lower-middle-income countries but not in low-income countries. The proportions of deaths attributed to population ageing in 195 countries/territories ranged from -43.9% to 117.4% for males and -30.1% to 153.5% for females. The 2 largest contributions of population ageing to disease-specific deaths globally between 1990 and 2017 were for ischemic heart disease (3.2 million) and stroke (2.2 million). Population ageing was related to increases in deaths in 152 countries for males and 159 countries for females, and decreases in deaths in 43 countries for males and 36 countries for females, between 1990 and 2017. The decreases in deaths attributed to mortality change from 1990 to 2017 were more than the increases in deaths related to population ageing for the whole world, as well as in 55.3% (84/152) of countries for males and 47.8% (76/159) of countries for females where population ageing was associated with increased death burden. As the GBD 2017 does not provide variances in the estimated death numbers, we were not able to quantify uncertainty in our attribution estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that population ageing was associated with substantial changes in numbers of deaths between 1990 and 2017, but the attributed proportion of deaths varied widely across country income levels, countries, and causes of death. Specific preventive and therapeutic techniques should be implemented in different countries and territories to address the growing health needs related to population ageing, especially targeting the diseases associated with the largest increase in number of deaths in the elderly.

Evaluation of a National Care Coordination Program to Reduce Utilization Among High-cost, High-need Medicaid Beneficiaries With Diabetes

BACKGROUND

Medical, behavioral, and social determinants of health are each associated with high levels of emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to evaluate a care coordination program designed to provide combined "whole-person care," integrating medical, behavioral, and social support for high-cost, high-need Medicaid beneficiaries by targeting access barriers and social determinants.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Individual-level interrupted time series with a comparator group, using person-month as the unit of analysis.

SUBJECTS

A total of 42,214 UnitedHealthcare Medicaid beneficiaries (194,834 person-months) age 21 years or above with diabetes, with Temporary Assistance to Needy Families, Medicaid expansion, Supplemental Security Income without Medicare, or dual Medicaid/Medicare.

MEASURES

Our outcome measures were any hospitalizations and any ED visits in a given month. Covariates of interest included an indicator for intervention versus comparator group and indicator and spline variables measuring changes in an outcome's time trend after program enrollment.

RESULTS

Overall, 6 of the 8 examined comparisons were not statistically significant. Among Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries, we observed a larger projected decrease in ED visit risk among the intervention sample versus the comparator sample at 12 months postenrollment (difference-in-difference: -6.6%; 95% confidence interval: -11.2%, -2.1%). Among expansion beneficiaries, we observed a greater decrease in hospitalization risk among the intervention sample versus the comparator sample at 12 months postenrollment (difference-in-difference: -5.8%; 95% confidence interval: -11.4%, -0.2%).

CONCLUSION

A care coordination program designed to reduce utilization among high-cost, high-need Medicaid beneficiaries was associated with fewer ED visits and hospitalizations for patients with diabetes in selected Medicaid programs but not others.

Pediatric televisits and telephone triage: impact on use of a hospital emergency department

OBJECTIVES

To analyze the characteristics of remote telephone consultations (televisits) and triage of pediatric emergencies attended by the 24-hour emergency service of Catalonia (CatSalut Respon), and to describe the impact of televisits on callers' decisions about whether or not to come to the emergency department and their opinion of the call service.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Observational cross-sectional study. During the call, cases were classified according the Spanish and Andorran triage system. Patients who were sent to the hospital underwent triage again, and the 2 assigned triage levels were compared. The families were later called to check data and ask their opinion of the service. Sociodemographic and clinical data related to the cases were recorded.

RESULTS

A total of 370 televisits were made. Most cases (300, 81%) were not emergencies. Seventy-five callers (20.3%) were advised to go to an emergency department. Fever (P = .002) and questions about medication (P < .001) were the problems significantly associated with nonurgent cases. Nearly 46% of the cases classified as serious during telephone triage were also considered serious when the child was brought to the emergency department. The rate of agreement between the 2 triage levels was moderate. Over half the parents stated they had intended to go to the hospital before calling the service; 46% changed their mind based on the call.

CONCLUSION

Fever and questions about medication were significantly associated with televisits for nonurgent cases. Nearly half the parents changed their mind about going to the emergency department after a televisit.

Patient-initiated emergency department visits without primary care follow-up: frequency and characteristics

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the volume of patient-initiated visits to the emergency department without follow-up by a primary care physician, and to identify factors related to this practice.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Retrospective, observational study of patients attended in a tertiary care hospital emergency department. We used a cluster/systematic sampling method to select 0.05% of the episodes discharged home every month. The following data were extracted: demographic variables, care times, prior primary care for the same episode, triage level, diagnosis, cost of prescriptions on discharge, instructions for follow-up, and adherence to those instructions. Associations were explored using multivariate logistic regression modelling.

RESULTS

A total of 1277 episodes were analyzed; 48.1% were patient-initiated visits without primary care follow-up. These visits were associated with the following variables: young patients (P = .002) without prior primary care (odds ratio [OR], 1.74; 95% CI, 1.34-2.28); visits between 10 PM and 4 AM (OR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.55-3.80); triage level 4-5 (OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.04-1.69); ophthalmologic emergency (OR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.12-2.41); a prescription cost of less than €3 (OR, 2.39; 95% CI, 1.87-3.06); and instruction to seek follow-up on discharge (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.37-2.65).

CONCLUSION

Half of patients who independently seek care from the emergency department and are discharged home do not later seek care at their primary care clinic. The emergency physician should insist on the importance of ongoing primary care.

Confidential, accessible point-of-care sexual health services to support the participation of key populations in biobehavioural surveys: Lessons for Papua New Guinea and other settings where reach of key populations is limited

To achieve the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets at a national level, many countries must accelerate service coverage among key populations. To do this, key population programs have adopted methods similar to those used in respondent-driven sampling (RDS) to expand reach. A deeper understanding of factors from RDS surveys that enhance health service engagement can improve key population programs. To understand the in-depth lives of key populations, acceptance of expanded point-of-care biological testing and determine drivers of participation in RDS surveys, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 111 key population participants (12-65 years) were purposefully selected from six biobehavioral surveys (BBS) in three cities in Papua New Guinea. Key populations were female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and transgender women. Four reasons motivated individuals to participate in the BBS: peer referrals; private, confidential, and stigma-free study facilities; "one-stop shop" services that provided multiple tests and with same-day results, sexually transmitted infection treatment, and referrals; and the desire to know ones' health status. Biobehavioral surveys, and programs offering key population services can incorporate the approach we used to facilitate key population engagement in the HIV cascade.

Australian Suicide Prevention using Health-Linked Data (ASHLi): Protocol for a population-based case series study

INTRODUCTION

In Australia, suicide is the leading cause of death for people aged 15-44 years. Health professionals deliver most of our key suicide prevention strategies via health services, but other efficacious population-level strategies include means restriction and public awareness campaigns. Currently, we have no population-level data allowing us to determine which individuals, in what parts of Australia, are likely to use our most promising interventions delivered by health services. The aims of this study are to describe: (1) health service utilisation rates in the year prior to death by suicide, and how this varies by individual case characteristics; (2) prescribed medicines use in the year prior to death by suicide, medicines used in suicide by poisoning and how this varies by individual case characteristics.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a population-based case series study of all suicide cases in Australia identified through the National Coronial Information System (NCIS) from 2013 to 2019. Cases will be linked to administrative claims data detailing health service use and medicines dispensed in the year before death. We will also obtain findings from the coronial enquiry, including toxicology. Descriptive statistics will be produced to characterise health service and prescribed medicine use and how utilisation varies by age, sex, method of death and socioeconomic status. We will explore the geographical variability of health service and medicine use, highlighting regions in Australia associated with more limited access.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This project involves the use of sensitive and confidential data. Data will be linked using a third-party privacy-preserving protocol meaning that investigators will not have access to identifiable information once the data have been linked. Statistical analyses will be carried out in a secure environment. This study has been approved by the following ethics committees: (1) the Justice Department Human Research Ethics Committee (REF: CF/17/23250), (2) the Western Australian Coroners Court (REF: EC 14/18 M0400), (3) the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (REF: EO2017/4/366) and (4) NSW Population & Health Services Research Ethics Committee (REF: 2017/HRE1204). Findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals, presented at conferences and communicated to regulatory authorities, clinicians and policy-makers.

Cancer burden of major cancers in China: A need for sustainable actions

Cancer is still a major health problem in China although numerous efforts have been made for its prevention and control. Findings from this study showed that lung cancer remains the most common type of cancer diagnosed, and was attributed to nearly 30% of all cancer-related deaths. The incidence of the five most common cancers, in China, in 2015, including cancers of the lungs, stomach, colorectum, liver and breast, accounted for almost 60% of all cancers diagnosed. The high cancer burden in China highlights the need for further improvement in health education, professional training and the building up an anti-cancer network for introducing and implementing sustainable actions for cancer control.