Limiting Alcohol Outlet Density to Prevent Alcohol Use and Violence: Estimating Policy Interventions Through Agent-Based Modeling

Increasing alcohol outlet density is well-documented to be associated with increased alcohol use and problems, leading to the policy recommendation that limiting outlet density will decrease alcohol problems. Yet few studies of decreasing problematic outlets and outlet density have been conducted. We estimated the association between closing alcohol outlets and alcohol use and alcohol-related violence, using an agent-based model of the adult population in New York City. The model was calibrated according to the empirical distribution of the parameters across the city's population, including the density of on- and off-premise alcohol outlets. Interventions capped the alcohol outlet distribution at the 90th to the 50th percentiles of the New York City density, and closed 5% to 25% of outlets with the highest levels of violence. Capping density led to a lower population of light drinkers (42.2% at baseline vs. 38.1% at the 50th percentile), while heavy drinking increased slightly (12.0% at baseline vs. 12.5% at the 50th percentile). Alcohol-related homicides and nonfatal violence remained unchanged. Closing the most violent outlets was not associated with changes in alcohol use or related problems. Results suggest that focusing solely on closing alcohol outlets might not be an effective strategy to reduce alcohol-related problems.

Intellectual disability and mental disorders in a US population representative sample of adolescents

BACKGROUND

Most research on the prevalence, distribution, and psychiatric comorbidity of intellectual disability (ID) relies on clinical samples, limiting the generalizability and utility of ID assessment in a legal context. This study assessed ID prevalence in a population-representative sample of US adolescents and examined associations of ID with socio-demographic factors and mental disorders.

METHODS

Data were drawn from the National Comorbidity Survey Adolescent Supplement (N = 6256). ID was defined as: (1) IQ ⩽ 76, measured using the Kaufman Brief Intelligence Test; (2) an adaptive behavior score ⩽76, and (3) age of onset ⩽18 measured using a validated scale. The Composite International Diagnostic Interview assessed 15 lifetime mental disorders. The Sheehan disability scale assessed disorder severity. We used logistic regression models to estimate differences in lifetime disorders for adolescents with and without ID.

RESULTS

ID prevalence was 3.2%. Among adolescents with ID, 65.1% met lifetime criteria for a mental disorder. ID status was associated with specific phobia, agoraphobia, and bipolar disorder, but not behavior disorders after adjustment for socio-demographics. Adolescents with ID and mental disorders were significantly more likely to exhibit severe impairment than those without ID.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight how sample selection and overlap between ID and psychopathology symptoms might bias understanding of the mental health consequences of ID. For example, associations between ID and behavior disorders widely reported in clinical samples were not observed in a population-representative sample after adjustment for socio-demographic confounders. Valid assessment and understanding of these constructs may prove influential in the legal system by influencing treatment referrals and capital punishment decisions.General Scientific SummaryCurrent definitions of intellectual disability (ID) are based on three criteria: formal designation of low intelligence through artificial problem-solving tasks, impairment in one's ability to function in his/her social environment, and early age of onset. In a national population sample of adolescents, the majority of those with ID met criteria for a lifetime mental disorder. Phobias and bipolar disorder, but not behavior disorders, were elevated in adolescents with ID. Findings highlight the need to consider how behavioral problems are conceptualized and classified in people with ID.

Urban-rural variation in the socioeconomic determinants of opioid overdose

BACKGROUND

Prescription opioid overdose (POD) and heroin overdose (HOD) rates have quadrupled since 1999. Community-level socioeconomic characteristics are associated with opioid overdoses, but whether this varies by urbanicity is unknown.

METHODS

In this serial cross-sectional study of zip codes in 17 states, 2002-2014 (n = 145,241 space-time units), we used hierarchical Bayesian Poisson space-time models to analyze the association between zip code-level socioeconomic features (poverty, unemployment, educational attainment, and income) and counts of POD or HOD hospital discharges. We tested multiplicative interactions between each socioeconomic feature and zip code urbanicity measured with Rural-Urban Commuting Area codes.

RESULTS

Percent in poverty and of adults with ≤ high school education were associated with higher POD rates (Rate Ratio [RR], 5% poverty: 1.07 [95% credible interval: 1.06-1.07]; 5% low education: 1.02 [1.02-1.03]), while median household income was associated with lower rates (RR, $10,000: 0.88 [0.87-0.89]). Urbanicity modified the association between socioeconomic features and HOD. Poverty and unemployment were associated with increased HOD in metropolitan areas (RR, 5% poverty: 1.12 [1.11-1.13]; 5% unemployment: 1.04 [1.02-1.05]), and median household income was associated with decreased HOD (RR, $10,000: 0.88 [0.87-0.90]). In rural areas, low educational attainment alone was associated with HOD (RR, 5%: 1.09 [1.02-1.16]).

CONCLUSIONS

Regardless of urbanicity, elevated rates of POD were found in more economically disadvantaged zip codes. Economic disadvantage played a larger role in HOD in urban than rural areas, suggesting rural HOD rates may have alternative drivers. Identifying social determinants of opioid overdoses is particularly important for creating effective population-level interventions.

Assessing the impact of alcohol taxation on rates of violent victimization in a large urban area: an agent-based modeling approach

AIMS

To use simulation to estimate the impact of alcohol taxation on drinking, non-fatal violent victimization and homicide in New York City (NYC). We simulate the heterogeneous effects of alcohol price elasticities by income, level of consumption and beverage preferences, and examine whether taxation can reduce income inequalities in alcohol-related violence.

DESIGN

Agent-based modeling simulation.

SETTING

NYC, USA.

PARTICIPANTS

Adult population aged 18-64 years in the year 2000 in the 59 community districts of NYC. The population of 256 500 agents approximates a 5% sample of the NYC population.

MEASUREMENTS

Agents were parameterized through a series of rules that governed alcohol consumption and engagement in violence. Six taxation interventions were implemented based on extensive reviews and meta-analyses, increasing universal alcohol tax by 1, 5 and 10%, and beer tax by 1, 5 and 10%.

FINDINGS

Under no tax increase, approximately 12.2% [95% credible interval (prediction interval, PI) = 12.1-12.3%] were heavy drinkers. Taxation decreased the proportion of heavy drinkers; a 10% tax decreased heavy drinking to 9.6% (95% PI = 9.4-9.8). Beer taxes had the strongest effect on population consumption. Taxation influenced those in the lowest income groups more than the highest income groups. Alcohol-related homicide decreased from 3.22 per 100 000 (95% PI = 2.50-3.73) to 2.40 per 100 000 under a 10% universal tax (95% PI = 1.92-2.94). This translates into an anticipated benefit of ~1200 lives/year.

CONCLUSION

Reductions in alcohol consumption in a large urban environment such as New York City can be sustained with modest increases in universal taxation. Alcohol tax increases also have a modest effect on alcohol-related violent victimization. Taxation policies reduce income inequalities in alcohol-related violence.

Mental illness, drinking, and the social division and structure of labor in the United States: 2003-2015

BACKGROUND

We draw on a relational theoretical perspective to investigate how the social division and structure of labor are associated with serious and moderate mental illness and binge and heavy drinking.

METHODS

The Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the Occupational Information Network were linked to explore how occupation, the productivity-to-pay gap, unemployment, the gendered division of domestic labor, and factor-analytic and theory-derived dimensions of work are related to mental illness and drinking outcomes.

RESULTS

Occupations involving manual labor and customer interaction, entertainment, sales, or other service-oriented labor were associated with increased odds of mental illness and drinking outcomes. Looking for work, more hours of housework, and a higher productivity-to-pay gap were associated with increased odds of mental illness. Physical/risky work was associated with binge and heavy drinking and serious mental illness; technical/craft work and automation were associated with binge drinking. Work characterized by higher authority, autonomy, and expertise was associated with lower odds of mental illness and drinking outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Situating work-related risk factors within their material context can help us better understand them as determinants of mental illness and identify appropriate targets for social change.

Historical trends in the grade of onset and sequence of cigarette, alcohol, and marijuana use among adolescents from 1976-2016: Implications for "Gateway" patterns in adolescence

INTRODUCTION

In the past decade, marijuana use prevalence among adolescents has remained relatively steady while cigarette and alcohol prevalence has declined. We examined historical trends in: average grade of onset of marijuana, alcohol, and cigarette use by 12^th grade; proportion who try alcohol/cigarettes before first marijuana use, among those who use by 12^th grade; and conditional probability of marijuana use by 12^th grade after trying alcohol/cigarettes.

METHODS

Data were drawn from 40 yearly, cross-sectional surveys of 12^th grade US adolescents. A subset of students (N = 246,050) were asked when they first used each substance. We reconstructed cohorts of substance use from grade-of-onset to determine sequence of drug use, as well as probability of marijuana use in the same or later grade.

RESULTS

Average grade of first alcohol and cigarette use by 12^th grade increased across time; e.g., first cigarette increased from grade 7.9 in 1986 to 9.0 by 2016 (β=0.04, SE = 0.001, p < 0.01). The proportion of 12^th grade adolescents who smoke cigarettes before marijuana fell below 50% in 2006. Each one-year increase was associated with 1.11 times increased odds of first cigarette in a grade after first marijuana (95% C.I. 1.11-1.12). Among those who initiate alcohol/cigarettes prior to marijuana by 12^th grade, the probability of subsequent marijuana use is increasing.

CONCLUSION

Marijuana is increasingly the first substance in the sequence of adolescent drug use. Reducing adolescent smoking has been a remarkable achievement of the past 20 years; those who continue to smoke are at higher risk for progression to marijuana use.

How do we assess a racial disparity in health? Distribution, interaction, and interpretation in epidemiological studies

Identifying the exposures or interventions that exacerbate or ameliorate racial health disparities is one of the fundamental goals of social epidemiology. Introducing an interaction term between race and an exposure into a statistical model is commonly used in the epidemiologic literature to assess racial health disparities and the potential viability of a targeted health intervention. However, researchers may attribute too much authority to the interaction term and inadvertently ignore other salient information regarding the health disparity. In this article, we highlight empirical examples from the literature demonstrating limitations of overreliance on interaction terms in health disparities research; we further suggest approaches for moving beyond interaction terms when assessing these disparities. We promote a comprehensive framework of three guiding questions for disparity investigation, suggesting examination of the group-specific differences in (1) outcome prevalence, (2) exposure prevalence, and (3) effect size. Our framework allows for better assessment of meaningful differences in population health and the resulting implications for interventions, demonstrating that interaction terms alone do not provide sufficient means for determining how disparities arise. The widespread adoption of this more comprehensive approach has the potential to dramatically enhance understanding of the patterning of health and disease and the drivers of health disparities.

Oral contraceptive use and depression among adolescents

PURPOSE

Depression is a prevalent health problem affecting U.S. women. Oral contraceptive pills (OCPs) are commonly used for pregnancy prevention, and evidence is mixed regarding any increased risk for incident depression among users, particularly adolescents.

METHODS

We examined the relationship between OCP use and depressive disorders among female adolescents using validated, structured interview assessments in a general population sample of adolescents in the National Comorbidity Survey-Adolescent Supplement. Respondents were 4765 female adolescents with no history of pregnancy who reported current OCP use, lifetime OCP use, and age of OCP initiation. Lifetime and current depressive disorders, including major depressive disorder and depressive episodes, were assessed by lay interviewers.

RESULTS

In logistic regression models adjusted for a range of confounders, there was no relationship between ever using OCPs and lifetime depressive disorder (OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.88-1.37), nor current use of OCPs and current depressive disorder (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.50-1.35). Using survival analysis for age-of-onset data, we found that OCP use is not associated with an increased risk of depressive disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

In sum, use of OCPs in a general population sample of adolescents did not increase the risk of depressive disorders.

The co-occurrence and correlates of anxiety disorders among adolescents with intermittent explosive disorder

We examined the lifetime prevalence of anxiety disorders (ADs) among adolescents with lifetime intermittent explosive disorder (IED), as well as the impact of co-occurring ADs on anger attack frequency and persistence, additional comorbidity, impairment, and treatment utilization among adolescents with IED. IED was defined by the occurrence of at least three anger attacks that were disproportionate to the provocation within a single year. Data were drawn from the National Comorbidity Survey-Adolescent Supplement (N = 6,140), and diagnoses were based on structured lay-administered interviews. Over half (51.89%) of adolescents with IED had an AD, compared to only 22.88% of adolescents without IED. Compared to adolescents with IED alone, adolescents with IED and comorbid ADs: (a) were more likely to be female; (b) reported greater impairment in work/school, social, and overall functioning; (c) were more likely to receive an additional psychiatric diagnosis, a depressive or drug abuse diagnosis, or diagnoses of three or more additional disorders; and (d) had higher odds of receiving any mental/behavioral health treatment as well as treatment specifically focused on aggression. Adolescents with IED alone and those with comorbid ADs did not differ in the number of years experiencing anger attacks or the highest number of anger attacks in a given year. ADs frequently co-occur with IED and are associated with elevated comorbidity and greater impairment compared to IED alone. Gaining a better understanding of this comorbidity is essential for developing specialized and effective methods to screen and treat comorbid anxiety in adolescents with aggressive behavior problems.

Subthreshold PTSD and PTSD in a prospective-longitudinal cohort of military personnel: Potential targets for preventive interventions

BACKGROUND

Prevention of PTSD requires identification of subpopulations contributing most to the population burden of PTSD. This study examines the relative contribution of subthreshold PTSD and probable PTSD on future PTSD in a representative military cohort.

METHODS

We analyze data on 3,457 U.S. National Guard members from the state of Ohio, assessed by telephone annually from 2008 to 2014. At each wave, participants were classified into one of three groups based on the PTSD Checklist: probable PTSD (DSM-IV-TR criteria), subthreshold PTSD (Criterion A1, at least one symptom in each cluster, symptom lasting longer than 30 days, and functional impairment), and no PTSD. We calculated the exposure rate, risk ratio (RR), and population attributable fraction (PAF) to determine the burden of future probable PTSD attributable to subthreshold PTSD compared to probable PTSD.

RESULTS

The annualized prevalence of subthreshold PTSD and probable PTSD was respectively 11.9 and 5.0%. The RR for probable PTSD was twice as great among respondents with probable PTSD the prior interview than that of those with subthreshold PTSD (7.0 vs. 3.4); however, the PAF was considerably greater in participants with subthreshold PTSD the prior interview (PAF = 35%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 26.0-42.9%) than in those with probable PTSD (PAF = 28.0%; 95% CI = 21.8-33.8%). Results were robust to changes in subthreshold PTSD definition.

CONCLUSIONS

Subthreshold PTSD accounted for a substantial proportion of this population's future PTSD burden. Population-based preventive interventions, compared to an approach focused exclusively on cases of diagnosable PTSD, is likely to affect the greatest reduction in this population's future PTSD burden.

Targeted Estimation of the Relationship Between Childhood Adversity and Fluid Intelligence in a US Population Sample of Adolescents

Many studies have shown inverse associations between childhood adversity and intelligence, although most are based on small clinical samples and fail to account for the effects of multiple co-occurring adversities. Using data from the 2001-2004 National Comorbidity Survey Adolescent Supplement, a cross-sectional US population study of adolescents aged 13-18 years (n = 10,073), we examined the associations between 11 childhood adversities and intelligence, using targeted maximum likelihood estimation. Targeted maximum likelihood estimation incorporates machine learning to identify the relationships between exposures and outcomes without overfitting, including interactions and nonlinearity. The nonverbal score from the Kaufman Brief Intelligence Test was used as a standardized measure of fluid reasoning. Childhood adversities were grouped into deprivation and threat types based on recent conceptual models. Adjusted marginal mean differences compared the mean intelligence score if all adolescents experienced each adversity to the mean in the absence of the adversity. The largest associations were observed for deprivation-type experiences, including poverty and low parental education, which were related to reduced intelligence. Although lower in magnitude, threat events related to intelligence included physical abuse and witnessing domestic violence. Violence prevention and poverty-reduction measures would likely improve childhood cognitive outcomes.

Depressive Symptoms, Antidepressant Use, and Hypertension in Young Adulthood

BACKGROUND

Among adults, depressive symptoms are associated with higher rates of cardiovascular disease; however, the evidence is mixed regarding the association between depressive symptoms and hypertension, especially among young adults. The deleterious effects of some antidepressant medications on blood pressure may contribute to mixed findings.

METHODS

Adolescents enrolled in Add Health (N = 11,183) (1994-2008) completed an abbreviated Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale at three waves (mean ages, 16, 22, and 29). Antidepressant use was measured at age 22 and at age 29. Hypertension at age 29 was defined as measured systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or greater, or staff-inventoried anti-hypertensive medication use.

RESULTS

The prevalence of hypertension at age 29 was 20%. High depressive symptoms in adolescence or young adulthood were not associated with hypertension in young adulthood. Antidepressant use at age 29 was associated with increased prevalence of hypertension (prevalence ratio [PR], 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2, 1.7) and an interaction with sex was observed (PRMen, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2, 2.0; PRWomen, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.89, 1.6; pinteraction = 0.0227). Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor and non-selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor antidepressant use were associated with hypertension (PRSSRI, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0, 1.6; PRnon-SSRI, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2, 2.1).

CONCLUSIONS

In this sample, antidepressant use, but not depressive symptoms, was associated with hypertension in young adulthood. Further research is recommended to examine joint and independent relationships between depression and antidepressant use and hypertension among young adults. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B355.

Medical marijuana laws and adolescent marijuana use in the United States: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies in order to estimate the effect of US medical marijuana laws (MMLs) on past-month marijuana use prevalence among adolescents.

METHODS

A total of 2999 papers from 17 literature sources were screened systematically. Eleven studies, developed from four ongoing large national surveys, were meta-analyzed. Estimates of MML effects on any past-month marijuana use prevalence from included studies were obtained from comparisons of pre-post MML changes in MML states to changes in non-MML states over comparable time-periods. These estimates were standardized and entered into a meta-analysis model with fixed-effects for each study. Heterogeneity among the study estimates by national data survey was tested with an omnibus F-test. Estimates of effects on additional marijuana outcomes, of MML provisions (e.g. dispensaries) and among demographic subgroups were abstracted and summarized. Key methodological and modeling characteristics were also described. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were followed.

RESULTS

None of the 11 studies found significant estimates of pre-post MML changes compared with contemporaneous changes in non-MML states for marijuana use prevalence among adolescents. The meta-analysis yielded a non-significant pooled estimate (standardized mean difference) of -0.003 (95% confidence interval = -0.012, +0.007). Four studies compared MML with non-MML states on pre-MML differences and all found higher rates of past-month marijuana use in MML states pre-MML passage. Additional tests of specific MML provisions, of MML effects on additional marijuana outcomes and among subgroups generally yielded non-significant results, although limited heterogeneity may warrant further study.

CONCLUSIONS

Synthesis of the current evidence does not support the hypothesis that US medical marijuana laws (MMLs) until 2014 have led to increases in adolescent marijuana use prevalence. Limited heterogeneity exists among estimates of effects of MMLs on other patterns of marijuana use, of effects within particular population subgroups and of effects of specific MML provisions.

Recent rapid decrease in adolescents' perception that marijuana is harmful, but no concurrent increase in use

BACKGROUND

National trends in adolescent's marijuana risk perceptions are traditionally used as a predictor of concurrent and future trends in adolescent marijuana use. We test the validity of this practice during a time of rapid marijuana policy change.

METHODS

Two repeated cross-sectional U.S. nationally-representative surveys of 8th, 10th, and 12th-graders: Monitoring the Future (MTF) (1991-2015; N = 1,181,692) and National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) (2002-2014; N = 113,317). We examined trends in the year-to-year prevalence of perceiving no risk of harm in using marijuana regularly, and prevalence of regular marijuana use within the previous month. A piecewise linear regression model tested for a change in the relationship between trends. Similar analyses examined any past-month use and controlled for demographic characteristics.

RESULTS

Among MTF 12th-graders, the prevalence of regular marijuana use and risk perceptions changed similarly between 1991 and 2006 but diverged sharply afterward. The prevalence of regular marijuana use increased by ∼1 percentage point to 6.03% by 2015. In contrast, the proportion of 12th-graders that perceived marijuana as posing no risk increased over 11 percentage points to 21.39%. A similar divergence was found among NSDUH 12th-graders and other grades, for any past month marijuana use, and when controlling demographic characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

An increase in adolescent marijuana use has not accompanied recent rapid decreases in marijuana risk perceptions. Policy makers may consider broader prevention strategies in addition to targeting marijuana risk perceptions. Further monitoring of predictors of marijuana use trends is needed as states legalize recreational marijuana use.

Self-medication of mood and anxiety disorders with marijuana: Higher in states with medical marijuana laws

BACKGROUND

Self-medication with drugs or alcohol is commonly reported among adults with mood or anxiety disorders, and increases the risk of developing substance use disorders. Medical marijuana laws (MML) may be associated with greater acceptance of the therapeutic value of marijuana, leading individuals to self-medicate.

METHODS

The study utilized data from Wave 2 of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (2004-2005). Participants were sampled from households in the general population and included adults with a mood or anxiety disorder in the past 12 months (n = 7418), and the subset of those who used marijuana and no other drug (n = 314). Weighted logistic regression models predicted the prevalence of self-medication with drugs in U.S. states with and without MML, adjusting for individual and state-level covariates. As a negative control, analyses were repeated for self-medication with alcohol.

RESULTS

Overall, self-medication with drugs was 3.73 percentage points higher (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93-6.53) among those living in MML states (p = 0.01). For the subpopulation that only used marijuana, self-medication with drugs was 21.22 percentage points higher (95% CI: 3.91-38.53) among those living in MML states (p = 0.02). In contrast, self-medication with alcohol had nearly identical prevalence in MML and non-MML states, overall and for drinkers.

CONCLUSIONS

Among adults with mood or anxiety disorders, living in a medical marijuana law state is associated with self-medication with marijuana. While additional research is needed to determine the reasons for this association, clinical screening for self-medication with marijuana may be particularly important in states with medical marijuana laws.

Evaluation of a flipped classroom approach to learning introductory epidemiology

BACKGROUND

Although the flipped classroom model has been widely adopted in medical education, reports on its use in graduate-level public health programs are limited. This study describes the design, implementation, and evaluation of a flipped classroom redesign of an introductory epidemiology course and compares it to a traditional model.

METHODS

One hundred fifty Masters-level students enrolled in an introductory epidemiology course with a traditional format (in-person lecture and discussion section, at-home assignment; 2015, N = 72) and a flipped classroom format (at-home lecture, in-person discussion section and assignment; 2016, N = 78). Using mixed methods, we compared student characteristics, examination scores, and end-of-course evaluations of the 2016 flipped classroom format and the 2015 traditional format. Data on the flipped classroom format, including pre- and post-course surveys, open-ended questions, self-reports of section leader teaching practices, and classroom observations, were evaluated.

RESULTS

There were no statistically significant differences in examination scores or students' assessment of the course between 2015 (traditional) and 2016 (flipped). In 2016, 57.1% (36) of respondents to the end-of-course evaluation found watching video lectures at home to have a positive impact on their time management. Open-ended survey responses indicated a number of strengths of the flipped classroom approach, including the freedom to watch pre-recorded lectures at any time and the ability of section leaders to clarify targeted concepts. Suggestions for improvement focused on ways to increase regular interaction with lecturers.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no significant difference in students' performance on quantitative assessments comparing the traditional format to the flipped classroom format. The flipped format did allow for greater flexibility and applied learning opportunities at home and during discussion sections.

Understanding parent-teacher agreement of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ): Comparison across seven European countries

Assessments of child psychopathology are often derived from parental and teacher reports, yet there is substantial disagreement. This study utilized data from 7 European countries to examine parent-teacher agreement and possible explanatory factors for parent-teacher disagreement such as child and family characteristics, parenting dimensions, and maternal distress were explored. Parent-teacher agreement of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire were assessed using a cross-sectional survey of 4,894 school aged children 6-11 from the School Children Mental Health Europe Project. Parent-teacher agreement was low to moderate (Pearson correlation ranging from .24 (Prosocial) to .48 (Hyperactivity) for the 5 subscales across 7 countries); kappa coefficient ranged from .01 (Turkey) to .44 (Italy) for internalizing problems and .19(Romania) to .44(Italy) for externalizing problems. Child's gender and age, mother's employment status, single parent home, number of children in household, and selected parenting dimension were found to be explanatory of informant disagreement. This study not only serves to advance our understanding of parent-teacher agreement of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire in 7 European countries but provides a novel approach to examining the factors that contribute to informant disagreement.

How Healthy Are Survey Respondents Compared with the General Population?: Using Survey-linked Death Records to Compare Mortality Outcomes

BACKGROUND

National surveys are used to capture US health trends and set clinical guidelines, yet the sampling frame often includes those in noninstitutional households, potentially missing those most vulnerable for poor health. Declining response rates in national surveys also represent a challenge, and existing inputs to survey weights have limitations. We compared mortality rates between those who respond to surveys and the general population over time.

METHODS

Survey respondents from 20 waves of the National Health Interview Survey from 1990 to 2009 who have been linked to death records through 31 December 2011 were included. For each cohort in the survey, we estimated their mortality rates along with that cohort's mortality rate in the census population using vital statistics records, and differences were examined using Poisson models.

RESULTS

In all years, survey respondents had lower mortality rates compared with the general population when data were both weighted and unweighted. Among men, survey respondents in the weighted sample had 0.86 (95% confidence interval = 0.853, 0.868) times the mortality rate of the general population (among women, RR = 0.887; 95% confidence interval, 0.879, 0.895). Differences in mortality are evident along all points of the life course. Differences have remained relatively stable over time.

CONCLUSION

Survey respondents have lower death rates than the general US population, suggesting that they are a systematically healthier source population. Incorporating nonhousehold samples and revised weighting strategies to account for sample frame exclusion and nonresponse may allow for more rigorous estimation of the US population's health.

Commentary on Kerr et al. (2018): Marijuana, drug use, and mental health in the United States-a tale of two generations

Adults and adolescents in the United States are experiencing unprecedented increases in depression and suicide, yet while marijuana and other drug use are increasing among adults, they are decreasing among adolescents. The causes and, therefore the remedies, of this public health burden may be fundamentally different between the two generations.

Joint Effects of Age, Period, and Cohort on Conduct Problems Among American Adolescents From 1991 Through 2015

Although arrest rates among juveniles have substantially decreased since the 1990s, US national trends in conduct problems are unknown. Population variation in conduct problems would imply changes in the social environment, which would include emergent or receding risk factors. In the present study, we separated age, period, and cohort effects on conduct problems using nationally representative surveys of 375,879 US students conducted annually (1991-2015). The summed score of 7 items measuring the frequency of conduct problems was the outcome. Conduct problems have decreased during the past 25 years among boys; the total amount of the decrease was approximately 0.4 standard deviations (P < 0.01), and by item prevalence, the total amount of the decrease was 8%-11%. Declines are best explained by period effects beginning approximately in 2008, and a declining cohort effect beginning among those born after 1992, which suggests not only declines in population levels, but more rapid declines among younger cohorts of boys. Trends were also consistent with age-period-cohort effects on evenings spent out, which suggest a possible mechanism. Conduct problems among girls were lower than boys and did not demonstrate trends across time. These changes may reflect the changing nature of adolescence toward less unsupervised interaction.