Air Pollution and Deaths among Elderly Residents of São Paulo, Brazil: An Analysis of Mortality Displacement

Estimation of PM2.5 using high-resolution satellite data and its mortality risk in an area of Iran

Satellite-based exposure of fine particulate matters has been seldom used as a predictor of mortality. PM2.5 was predicted using Aerosol Optical Depths (AOD) through a two-stage regression model. The predicted PM2.5 was corrected for the bias using two approaches. We estimated the impact by two different scenarios of PM2.5 in the model. We statistically found different distributions of the predicted PM2.5 over the region. Compared to the reference value (5 µg/m3), 90th and 95th percentiles had significant adverse effect on total mortality (RR 90th percentile:1.45; CI 95%: 1.08-1.95 and RR 95th percentile:1.53; CI 95%: 1.11-2.1). Nearly 1050 deaths were attributed to any range of the air pollution (unhealthy range), of which more than half were attributed to high concentration range. Given the adverse effect of extreme values compared to the both scenarios, more efforts are suggested to define local-specific reference values and preventive strategies.

Short-Term Interaction Effects of PM2.5 and O3 on Daily Mortality: A Time-Series Study of Multiple Cities in China

In recent years, PM2.5 and O3 have been the two main pollutants affecting public health in China, but the interaction of the two pollutants on human health remains unclear. A two-stage analytical approach was used to investigate the relationships of PM2.5-O3 co-pollution with nonaccidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality levels across 14 cities in China. We first utilized a generalized additive model (GAM) to determine the city-specific associations of PM2.5 and O3 with daily mortality. The associations were then combined at the national and regional levels using meta-analysis. To investigate the potential interactions between the two pollutants and cause-specific mortality, we performed stratified analyses by co-pollutant exposure levels and the synergy index (SI) (SI > 1 indicates a synergistic interaction). The effect of changes in the two pollutants' concentrations (in 10 μg/m3 increases) on mortality was assessed. The stratification analysis results suggested that each 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 at lag0-1 (lag01) in the low, moderate, and high strata of the O3 concentrations increased nonaccidental mortality by 0.07% (95% confidence interval: -0.03%, 0.17%), 0.33% (0.13%, 0.53%), and 0.68% (0.30%, 1.06%), respectively, with significant between-group differences (p < 0.001). Moreover, each 10 μg/m3 increase in O3 (lag01) in the low, moderate, and high strata of the PM2.5 concentrations increased nonaccidental mortality by 0.15% (-0.06%, 0.36%), 0.53% (0.19%, 0.87%), and 0.75% (0.14%, 1.36%), respectively, with significant between-group differences (p < 0.001). We also found substantial synergistic interactions between the two pollutants and nonaccidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality levels, with SI values of 1.48, 1.51, and 1.33, respectively. Additionally, a subgroup analysis revealed that the interaction of these two pollutants on nonaccidental mortality were greater in South China compared to elsewhere, and during the warm season compared to during the cold season. Our findings suggested that the simultaneous control of PM2.5 and O3 within the context of combined air pollution could significantly decrease the disease risk, especially in southern China and during the warm season.

Air pollution and cancer daily mortality in Hangzhou, China: an ecological research

BACKGROUND

Long-term exposure to air pollution has been linked to cancer incidence. However, the evidence is limited regarding the effect of short-term exposure to air pollution on cancer mortality.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate associations between short-term exposure to air pollutants (sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <10 mm (PM10) and PM2.5) and cancer daily mortality.

METHODS

This study used air quality, meteorological and daily cancer death data from 2014 to 2019 in Hangzhou, China. Generalised additive models (GAM) with quasi-Poisson regression were used to analyse the associations between air pollutants and cancer mortality with adjustment for confounding factors including time trends, day of week, temperature and humidity. Then, we conducted stratified analyses by sex, age, season and education. In addition, stratified analyses of age, season and education were performed within each sex to determine whether sex difference was modified by such factors.

RESULTS

After adjusting for potential confounders, the GAM results indicated a statistically significant relationship between increased cancer mortality and elevated air pollution concentrations, but only in the female population. For every 10 μg/m3 rise in pollutant concentration, the increased risk of cancer death in females was 6.82% (95% CI 3.63% to 10.10%) for SO2 on lag 03, and 2.02% (95% CI 1.12% to 2.93%) for NO2 on lag 01 and 0.89% (95% CI 0.46% to 1.33%) for PM10 on lag 03 and 1.29% (95% CI 0.64% to 1.95%) for PM2.5 on lag 03. However, no statistically significant association was found among males. Moreover, the differences in effect sizes between males and females were more pronounced during the cold season, among the elderly and among subjects with low levels of education.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased cancer mortality was only observed in females with rising concentrations of air pollutants. Further research is required to confirm this sex difference. Advocate for the reduction of air pollutant emissions to protect vulnerable groups.

Mortality attributable to PM2.5 from wildland fires in California from 2008 to 2018

In California, wildfire risk and severity have grown substantially in the last several decades. Research has characterized extensive adverse health impacts from exposure to wildfire-attributable fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but few studies have quantified long-term outcomes, and none have used a wildfire-specific chronic dose-response mortality coefficient. Here, we quantified the mortality burden for PM2.5 exposure from California fires from 2008 to 2018 using Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system wildland fire PM2.5 estimates. We used a concentration-response function for PM2.5, applying ZIP code-level mortality data and an estimated wildfire-specific dose-response coefficient accounting for the likely toxicity of wildfire smoke. We estimate a total of 52,480 to 55,710 premature deaths are attributable to wildland fire PM2.5 over the 11-year period with respect to two exposure scenarios, equating to an economic impact of $432 to $456 billion. These findings extend evidence on climate-related health impacts, suggesting that wildfires account for a greater mortality and economic burden than indicated by earlier studies.

Air quality modeling in the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil: A review

Numerous studies have used air quality models to estimate pollutant concentrations in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) by using different inputs and assumptions. Our objectives are to summarize these studies, compare their performance, configurations, and inputs, and recommend areas of further research. We examined 29 air quality modeling studies that focused on ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) performed over the MASP, published from 2001 to 2023. The California Institute of Technology airshed model (CIT) was the most used offline model, while the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) was the most used online model. Because the main source of air pollution in the MASP is the vehicular fleet, it is commonly used as the only anthropogenic input emissions. Simulation periods were typically the end of winter and during spring, seasons with higher O3 and PM2.5 concentrations. Model performance for hourly ozone is good with half of the studies with Pearson correlation above 0.6 and root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 7.7 to 27.1 ppb. Fewer studies modeled PM2.5 and their performance is not as good as ozone estimates. Lack of information on emission sources, pollutant measurements, and urban meteorology parameters is the main limitation to perform air quality modeling. Nevertheless, researchers have used measurement campaign data to update emission factors, estimate temporal emission profiles, and estimate volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and aerosol speciation. They also tested different emission spatial disaggregation approaches and transitioned to global meteorological reanalysis with a higher spatial resolution. Areas of research to explore are further evaluation of models' physics and chemical configurations, the impact of climate change on air quality, the use of satellite data, data assimilation techniques, and using model results in health impact studies. This work provides an overview of advancements in air quality modeling within the MASP and offers practical approaches for modeling air quality in other South American cities with limited data, particularly those heavily impacted by vehicle emissions.

Short-term air pollution exposure and mortality in Brazil: Investigating the susceptible population groups

This is the first study to examine the association between ambient air pollution (PM2.5, O3, and NO2) and mortality (in different population groups by sex and age) based on a nationwide death record across Brazil over a 15-year period (2003-2017). We used a time-series analytic approach with a distributed lag model. Our study population includes 2,872,084 records of deaths in Brazil between 2003 and 2017. Men accounted for a higher proportion of deaths, with 58% for all-cause mortality, 54% for respiratory mortality, and 52% for circulatory mortality. Most individuals were over 65 years of age. Our results suggest an association between air pollution and mortality in Brazil. The direction, statistical significance, and effect size of these associations varied considerably by type of air pollutant, region, and population group (sex and age group). In particular, the older population group (>65 years) was most affected. The national meta-analysis for the entire data set (without stratification by sex and age) showed that for every 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration, the risk of death from respiratory diseases increased by 2.93% (95%CI: 1.42; 4.43). For every 10 ppb increase in O3, there is a 2.21% (95%CI: 0.59; 3.83) increase in the risk of all-cause mortality for the group of all people between 46 and 65 years old, and a 3.53% (95%CI: 0.34; 6.72) increase in the risk of circulatory mortality for the group of women, all ages. For every 10 ppb increase in NO2, the risk of respiratory mortality increases by 17.56% (95%CI: 4.44; 30.64) and the risk of all-cause mortality by 5.63% (95%CI: 1.83; 9.44). The results of our study provide epidemiological evidence that air pollution is associated with a higher risk of cardiorespiratory mortality in Brazil. Given the lack of nationwide studies on air pollution in Brazil, our research is an important contribution to the local and international literature that can provide better support to policymakers to improve air quality and public health.

Short-term joint effects of ambient PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in Beijing, China

Introduction

In recent years, air pollution caused by co-occurring PM2.5 and O3, named combined air pollution (CAP), has been observed in Beijing, China, although the health effects of CAP on population mortality are unclear.

Methods

We employed Poisson generalized additive models (GAMs) to evaluate the individual and joint effects of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality (nonaccidental, respiratory, and cardiovascular mortality) in Beijing, China, during the whole period (2014-2016) and the CAP period. Adverse health effects were assessed for percentage increases (%) in the three mortality categories with each 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 and O3. The cumulative risk index (CRI) was adopted as a novel approach to quantify the joint effects.

Results

The results suggested that both PM2.5 and O3 exhibited the greatest individual effects on the three mortality categories with cumulative lag day 01. Increases in the nonaccidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality categories were 0.32%, 0.36%, and 0.43% for PM2.5 (lag day 01) and 0.22%, 0.37%, and 0.25% for O3 (lag day 01), respectively. There were remarkably synergistic interactions between PM2.5 and O3 on the three mortality categories. The study showed that the combined effects of PM2.5 and O3 on nonaccidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were 0.34%, 0.43%, and 0.46%, respectively, during the whole period and 0.58%, 0.79%, and 0.75%, respectively, during the CAP period. Our findings suggest that combined exposure to PM2.5 and O3, particularly during CAP periods, could further exacerbate their single-pollutant health risks.

Conclusion

These findings provide essential scientific evidence for the possible creation and implementation of environmental protection strategies by policymakers.

Association of long-term exposure to air pollution with chronic sleep deprivation in South Korea: A community-level longitudinal study, 2008-2018

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Although there are many findings about the effects of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and sleep deprivation on health respectively, the association between PM_2.5 and chronic sleep deprivation has rarely been investigated. Thus, we aimed to investigate this association using a nationwide survey in South Korea.

METHOD

We examined the association between long-term exposure to PM_2.5 and chronic sleep deprivation using a national cross-sectional health survey covering the entire 226 districts in inland South Korea from 2008 to 2018, with a machine learning-based national air pollution prediction model with 1 km² spatial resolution.

RESULTS

Chronic sleep deprivation was positively associated with PM_2.5 in the total population (odds ratio (OR): 1.09, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05-1.13) and sub-population (low, middle, high population density areas with OR: 1.127, 1.09, and 1.059, respectively). The association was consistently observed in both sexes (males with OR: 1.09, females with OR: 1.09)) and was more pronounced in the elderly population (OR: 1.12) than in the middle-aged (OR: 1.07) and young (OR: 1.09) populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results are consistent with the hypothesis regarding the relationship between long-term PM_2.5 exposure and chronic sleep deprivation, and the study provides quantitative evidence for public health interventions to improve air quality that can affect chronic sleep conditions.

Short-term effects of fine particulate matter constituents on mortality considering the mortality displacement in Zhejiang province, China

BACKGROUND

Evidence linking mortality and short-term exposure to particulate matter (PM_2.5) constituents was sparse. The mortality displacement was often unconsidered and may induce incorrect risk estimation.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the short-term effects of PM_2.5 constituents on all-cause mortality considering the mortality displacement.

METHODS

Daily data on all-cause mortality and PM_2.5 constituents, including sulfate (SO₄^2-), nitrate (NO₃^-), ammonium (NH₄⁺), organic matters (OM), and black carbon (BC), were collected from 2009 to 2020. The mortality effect of PM_2.5 and its constituents was estimated using a distributed lag non-linear model. Stratified analyses were performed by age, sex, and season.

RESULTS

Per interquartile range increases in SO₄^2-, NO₃^-, NH₄⁺, OM, and BC were associated with the 1.42% (95%CI: 0.98, 1.87), 3.76% (3.34, 4.16), 2.26% (1.70, 2.83), 2.36% (2.02, 2.70), and 1.26% (0.91, 1.61) increases in all-cause mortality, respectively. Mortality displacements were observed for PM_2.5, SO₄^2-, NH₄⁺, OM, and BC, with their overall effects lasting for 7-15 days. Stratified analyses revealed a higher risk for old adults (>65 years) and females, with stronger effects in the cold season.

CONCLUSIONS

Short-term exposures to PM_2.5 constituents were positively associated with increased risks of mortality. The mortality displacement should be considered in future epidemiological studies on PM constituents.

DATA AVAILABILITY

Data will be made available on request.

A Multi-Pollutant and Meteorological Analysis of Cardiorespiratory Mortality among the Elderly in São Paulo, Brazil-An Artificial Neural Networks Approach

Traditionally, studies that associate air pollution with health effects relate individual pollutants to outcomes such as mortality or hospital admissions. However, models capable of analyzing the effects resulting from the atmosphere mixture are demanded. In this study, multilayer perceptron neural networks were evaluated to associate PM₁₀, NO₂, and SO₂ concentrations, temperature, wind speed, and relative air humidity with cardiorespiratory mortality among the elderly in São Paulo, Brazil. Daily data from 2007 to 2019 were considered and different numbers of neurons on the hidden layer, algorithms, and a combination of activation functions were tested. The best-fitted artificial neural network (ANN) resulted in a MAPE equal to 13.46%. When individual season data were analyzed, the MAPE decreased to 11%. The most influential variables in cardiorespiratory mortality among the elderly were PM₁₀ and NO₂ concentrations. The relative humidity variable is more important during the dry season, and temperature is more important during the rainy season. The models were not subjected to the multicollinearity issue as with classical regression models. The use of ANNs to relate air quality to health outcomes is still very incipient, and this work highlights that it is a powerful tool that should be further explored.

Spatio-temporal visualization and forecasting of [Formula: see text] in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais

Air pollution due to air contamination by gases, liquids, and solid particles in suspension, is a great environmental and public health concern nowadays. An important type of air pollution is particulate matter with a diameter of 10 microns or less ([Formula: see text]) because one of the determining factors that affect human health is the size of particles in the atmosphere due to the degree of permanence and penetration they have in the respiratory system. Therefore, it is extremely interesting to monitor and understand the behavior of [Formula: see text] concentrations so that they do not exceed the established critical levels. In this work, we will study the [Formula: see text] concentrations in all available monitoring stations in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. To better understand its behavior, we will provide a spatio-temporal visualization of the [Formula: see text] concentrations. Besides the descriptive and visualization analysis, we consider six standard and advanced time series models that will be used to fit and forecast [Formula: see text] concentrations, with application to three locations, one in Belo Horizonte, the Minas Gerais state capital, and the monitoring stations with the lowest and highest average [Formula: see text] concentration levels.

Association between Short-Term Exposure to Air Pollution and COVID-19 Mortality: A Population-Based Case-Crossover Study Using Individual-Level Mortality Registry Confirmed by Medical Examiners

BACKGROUND

Studies have suggested links between ambient air pollution and coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) mortality, yet confirmation by well-designed epidemiological studies with individual data is needed.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to examine whether short-term exposure to air pollution is associated with risk of mortality from COVID-19 for those infected with COVID-19.

METHODS

The Cook County Medical Examiner's Office reports individual-level data for deaths from COVID-19 that occur in its jurisdiction, which includes all confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Cook County, Illinois. Case-crossover analysis was conducted to estimate the associations of estimated short-term exposures to particulate matter (PM) with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5μm (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) on the day of death and up to 21 d before death at location of death with COVID-19. A total of 7,462 deaths from COVID-19 that occurred up to 28 February 2021 were included in the final analysis. We adjusted for potential confounders by time-stratified case-crossover design and by covariate adjustments (i.e., time-invariant factors, meteorological factors, viral transmission, seasonality, and time trend).

RESULTS

Of the 7,462 case and 25,457 self-control days, almost all were days with exposure levels below the PM2.5 24-h National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) (35 μg/m3); 98.9% had O3 levels below the maximum 8-h NAAQS (35.7 μg/m3 or 70 parts per billion). An interquartile range (IQR) increase (5.2 μg/m3) in cumulative 3-wk PM2.5 exposure was associated with a 69.6% [95% confidence interval (CI): 34.6, 113.8] increase in risk of COVID-19 mortality. An IQR increase (8.2 μg/m3) in 3-d O3 exposure was associated with a 29.0% (95% CI: 9.9, 51.5) increase in risk of COVID-19 mortality. The associations differed by demographics or race/ethnicity. There was indication of modification of the associations by some comorbid conditions.

DISCUSSION

Short-term exposure to air pollution below the NAAQS may increase the mortality burden from COVID-19. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10836.

Health impact assessment of air pollution in Lisbon, Portugal

BACKGROUND

Lisbon has about 500,000 inhabitants and it's the capital and the main economic hub of Portugal. Studies have demonstrated that exposure to Particulate Matter with an aerodynamic diameter<2.5 μm (PM_2.5) have strong association with health effects. Researchers continue to identify new harmful air pollutants effects in our health even in low levels.

OBJECTIVES

This study evaluates air pollution scenarios considering a Health Impact Assessment approach in Lisbon, Portugal.

METHODS

We have studied abatement scenarios of PM_2.5 concentrations and the health effects in the period from 2015 to 2017 using the APHEKOM tool and the associated health costs were assessed by Value of Life Year.

RESULTS

The mean concentration of PM_2.5 in Lisbon was 23 μg/m³ ± 10 μg/m³ (±Standard Deviation). If we consider that World Health Organization (WHO) standards of PM_2.5 (10 μg/m³) were reached, Lisbon would avoid more than 423 premature deaths (equivalent to 9,172 life years' gain) and save more than US$45 million annually. If Lisbon city could even diminish the mean of PM_2.5 by 5 μg/m³, nearly 165 deaths would be avoided, resulting in a gain of US$17 million annually.

CONCLUSION

According to our findings, if considered the worst pollution scenario, levels of PM2.5 could improve the life's quality and save a significant amount of economic resources.Implications: The manuscript addresses the health effects and costs of air pollution and constitutes an important target for improving public policies on air pollutants in Portugal. Although Portugal has low levels of air pollution, there are significant health and economic effects that, for the most part, are underreported. The health impact assessment approach associated with costs had not yet been addressed in Portugal, which makes this study more relevant in the analysis of policies aimed to drive stricter control on pollutants' emissions. Health costs are a fundamental element to support decision-making process and to orientate the trade-offs in investments for improving public policies so that to diminish health effects, which can impact the management of the local health services and the population's quality of life, especially after the pandemic period when resources are scarce.

Association between ambient PM2.5 and outpatient visits of children's respiratory diseases in a megacity in Central China

Objective

To explore the relationship between ambient PM_2.5 level and outpatient visits of children with respiratory diseases in a megacity, Zhengzhou, in central China.

Methods

We collected daily outpatient visit data, air pollutant data, and meteorological data at the monitoring points of Zhengzhou from the time period 2018 to 2020 and used Spearman's rank correlation to analyze the correlation between children's respiratory outpatient visits and air pollutants and meteorological factors. Generalized additive models were used to analyze the association between PM_2.5 exposures and children's respiratory outpatient visits. A stratified analysis was further carried out for the seasons.

Results

From 2018 to 2020, the total number of outpatients with children's respiratory diseases was 79,1107, and the annual average concentrations of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂, CO, and O₃-8h in Zhengzhou were respectively 59.48 μg/m³, 111.12 μg/m³, 11.10 μg/m³, 47.77 μg/m³, 0.90 mg/m³ and 108.81 μg/m³. The single-pollutant model showed that the risk of outpatient visits for children with respiratory disease increased by 0.341% (95%CI: 0.274-0.407%), 0.532% (95%CI: 0.455-0.609%) and 0.233% (95%CI: 0.177-0.289%) for every 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 with a 3-day lag, 1-day lag, and 1-day lag respectively for the whole year, heating period, and non-heating period. The multi-pollutant model showed that the risk of PM_2.5 on children's respiratory disease visits was robust. The excess risk of PM_2.5 on children's respiratory disease visits increased by 0.220% (95%CI: 0.147-0.294%) when SO₂ was adjusted. However, the PM_2.5 effects were stronger during the heating period than during the non-heating period.

Conclusion

The short-term exposure to PM_2.5 was significantly associated with outpatient visits for children's respiratory diseases. It is therefore necessary to strengthen the control of air pollution so as to protect children's health.

Assessment of Factors Influencing Personal Exposure to Air Pollution on Main Roads in Bogota: A Mixed-Method Study

Background and Objectives: Particulate Matter (PM), particles of variable but small diameter can penetrate the respiratory system via inhalation, causing respiratory and/or cardiovascular diseases. This study aims to evaluate the association of environmental particulate matter (PM_2.5) and black carbon (BC) with respiratory health in users of different transport modes in four roads in Bogotá. Materials and Methods: this was a mixed-method study (including a cross sectional study and a qualitative description of the air quality perception), in 300 healthy participants, based on an exploratory sequential design. The respiratory effect was measured comparing the changes between pre- and post-spirometry. The PM_2.5 and black carbon (BC) concentrations were measured using portable devices. Inhaled doses were also calculated for each participant according to the mode and route. Perception was approached through semi-structured interviews. The analysis included multivariate models and concurrent triangulation. Results: The concentration of matter and black carbon were greater in bus users (median 50.67 µg m^-3; interquartile range (-IR): 306.7). We found greater inhaled dosages of air pollutants among bike users (16.41 µg m^-3). We did not find changes in the spirometry parameter associated with air pollutants or transport modes. The participants reported a major sensory influence at the visual and olfactory level as perception of bad air quality. Conclusions: We observed greater inhaled doses among active transport users. Nevertheless, no pathological changes were identified in the spirometry parameters. People's perceptions are a preponderant element in the assessment of air quality.

Associations between ambient air pollution, meteorology, and daily hospital admissions for ischemic stroke: a time-stratified case-crossover study in Beijing

Air pollution and ischemic stroke (IS) are both vital factors affecting the health of Beijing citizens. This study aims at exploring the associations between air pollution, meteorology, and the hospital admission of IS (IS HA). Information on 476,659 IS inpatients in secondary and higher hospitals in Beijing from 2013 to 2018 were collected. A time-stratified case-crossover design with the generalized additive model and the distributed lag nonlinear model were used. In the single-pollutant models, an inter-quartile range increase in O_3, SO₂, CO, and NO₂ resulted in a significant highest increase in IS HA by 2.23% (95% CI: 1.56%, 2.90%), 1.53% (95% CI: 1.12%, 1.95%), 1.05% (95% CI: 0.70%, 1.40%), and 0.51% (95% CI: 0.24%, 0.79%) on the day of pollution, so did PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ by 1.13% (95% CI: 0.68%, 1.59%) and 1.19% (95% CI: 0.74%, 1.64%) at a lag of 0-5 days. There was a nonlinear relationship between meteorology and IS HA. In the multivariate model, the cumulative relative risks with a maximum lag time of 21 days of PM_2.5 and NO₂ were 1.11 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.19) and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.94), while the effects of SO₂, O₃, and meteorology were insignificant. The findings suggested that particulate pollutants could increase the risk of IS, and the elderly were more sensitive to it, while the results of gaseous pollutants are still discordant. The control of air pollution and the protection of susceptible populations should receive higher attention from policymakers.

Short-Term Effects of PM10, NO2, SO2 and O3 on Cardio-Respiratory Mortality in Cape Town, South Africa, 2006–2015

Background: The health effect of air pollution is rarely quantified in Africa, and this is evident in global systematic reviews and multi-city studies which only includes South Africa. Methods: A time-series analysis was conducted on daily mortality (cardiovascular (CVD) and respiratory diseases (RD)) and air pollution from 2006–2015 for the city of Cape Town. We fitted single- and multi-pollutant models to test the independent effects of particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and ozone (O3) from co-pollutants. Results: daily average concentrations per interquartile range (IQR) increase of 16.4 µg/m3 PM10, 10.7 µg/m3 NO2, 6 µg/m3 SO2 and 15.6 µg/m3 O3 lag 0–1 were positively associated with CVD, with an increased risk of 2.4% (95% CI: 0.9–3.9%), 2.2 (95% CI: 0.4–4.1%), 1.4% (95% CI: 0–2.8%) and 2.5% (95% CI: 0.2–4.8%), respectively. For RD, only NO2 showed a significant positive association with a 4.5% (95% CI: 1.4–7.6%) increase per IQR. In multi-pollutant models, associations of NO2 with RD remained unchanged when adjusted for PM10 and SO2 but was weakened for O3. In CVD, O3 estimates were insensitive to other pollutants showing an increased risk. Interestingly, CVD and RD lag structures of PM10, showed significant acute effect with evidence of mortality displacement. Conclusion: The findings suggest that air pollution is associated with mortality, and exposure to PM10 advances the death of frail population.

Assessing the association between air pollution and child development in São Paulo, Brazil

Background

Outdoor air pollution is increasingly recognised as a key threat to population health globally, with particularly high risks for urban residents. In this study, we assessed the association between residential nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) exposure and children’s cognitive and behavioural development using data from São Paulo Brazil, one of the largest urban agglomerations in the world.

Methods

We used data from the São Paulo Western Region Birth Cohort, a longitudinal cohort study aiming to examine determinants as well as long-term implications of early childhood development. Cross-sectional data from the 72-month follow-up was analysed. Data on NO₂ concentration in the study area was collected at 80 locations in 2019, and land use regression modelling was used to estimate annual NO₂ concentration at children’s homes. Associations between predicted NO₂ exposure and children’s cognitive development as well as children’s behavioural problems were estimated using linear regression models adjusted for an extensive set of confounders. All results were expressed per 10 μg/m³ increase in NO2.

Results

1143 children were included in the analysis. We found no association between NO₂ and children’s cognitive development (beta -0.05, 95% CI [-0.20; 0.10]) or behavioural problems (beta 0.02, 95% CI [-0.80; 0.12]).

Conclusion

No association between child cognition or child behaviour and NO₂ was found in this cross-sectional analysis. Further research will be necessary to understand the extent to which these null results reflect a true absence of association or other statistical, biological or adaptive factors not addressed in this paper.

Issue 1 - "Update on adverse respiratory effects of outdoor air pollution" Part 2): Outdoor air pollution and respiratory diseases: Perspectives from Angola, Brazil, Canada, Iran, Mozambique and Portugal

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the GARD perspective on the health effects of outdoor air pollution, and to synthesise the Portuguese epidemiological contribution to knowledge on its respiratory impact.

RESULTS

Ambient air pollution has deleterious respiratory effects which are more apparent in larger, densely populated and industrialised countries, such as Canada, Iran, Brazil and Portugal, but it also affects people living in low-level exposure areas. While low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), are particularly affected, evidence based on epidemiological studies from LMICs is both limited and heterogeneous. While nationally, Portugal has a relatively low level of air pollution, many major cities face with substantial air pollution problems. Time series and cross-sectional epidemiological studies have suggested increased respiratory hospital admissions, and increased risk of respiratory diseases in people who live in urban areas and are exposed to even a relatively low level of air pollution.

CONCLUSIONS

Adverse respiratory effects due to air pollution, even at low levels, have been confirmed by epidemiological studies. However, evidence from LMICs is heterogeneous and relatively limited. Furthermore, longitudinal cohort studies designed to study and quantify the link between exposure to air pollutants and respiratory diseases are needed. Worldwide, an integrated approach must involve multi-level stakeholders including governments (in Portugal, the Portuguese Ministry of Health, which hosts GARD-Portugal), academia, health professionals, scientific societies, patient associations and the community at large. Such an approach not only will garner a robust commitment, establish strong advocacy and clear objectives, and raise greater awareness, it will also support a strategy with adequate measures to be implemented to achieve better air quality and reduce the burden of chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs).

Systematic review and meta-analysis of studies between short-term exposure to ambient carbon monoxide and non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in China

Although a growing number of original epidemiological studies imply a link between ambient pollution exposure and mortality risk, the findings associated with carbon monoxide (CO) exposure are inconsistent. Thus, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological studies to evaluate the correlations between ambient CO and non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in China. Eight databases were searched from inception to 15 May 2021. A random-effect model was used to calculate the pooled relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Subgroup analyses as well as sensitivity analyses were performed. The I square value (I²) was used to assess heterogeneity among different studies. The assessment of publication bias on included studies was examined by funnel plot and Egger's test. The influence of a potential publication bias on findings was explored by using the trim-and-fill procedure. Ultimately, a total of 19 studies were included in our analysis. The pooled relative risk for each 1 mg/m³ increase of ambient carbon monoxide was 1.0220 (95%CI: 1.0102-1.0339) for non-accidental mortality, 1.0304 (95%CI:1.0154-1.0457) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.0318 (95%CI:1.0132-1.0506) for respiratory mortality. None of subgroup analyses could explain the source of heterogeneity. Exclusion of any single study did not materially alter the pooled effect estimates. Although it was suggestive of publication bias, findings were generally similar with principal findings when we explored the influence of a potential publication bias using the trim-and-fill method. Our meta-analysis demonstrated that exposure to ambient CO was positive with risk of deaths from all non-accidental causes, total cardiovascular, and respiratory diseases. Based on these findings, tougher intervention policies and initiatives to reduce the health effects of CO exposure should be established.

A Time-Series Analysis on the Association Between Fine Particulate Matter and Daily Mortality - Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province, China, 2015-2020

Introduction

Shijiazhuang is one of the most polluted cities in China, but few studies have investigated the acute impact of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) on mortality in this city. We assessed associations between PM_2.5 and cause-specific mortality during 2015 to 2020.

Methods

We obtained air quality data from Shijiazhuang Ecology and Environment Bureau, meteorological data from Shijiazhuang Meteorological Bureau, and mortality data from Shijiazhuang CDC's Cause of Death Reporting System for our analyses. We used a quasi-Poisson regression generalized additive model to assess excess risk of death for a single time-lag and for moving average time-lags of 0-7 days, stratifying by year, sex, age, and education.

Results

There were 76,859 non-accidental deaths recorded in Shijiazhuang during the study period. The daily concentration of PM_2.5 ranged from 6.3 μg/m³ to 625.3 μg/m³, and the annual mean concentration was 77.6 μg/m³. Regression analysis showed that an increment of PM_2.5 of 10 μg/m³ in a two-day average concentration (lag01) was associated with 0.47% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.24%, 0.70%], 0.49% (95% CI: 0.19%, 0.79%), and 0.72% (95% CI: 0.22%, 1.23%) increases in non-accidental deaths, cardiovascular disease deaths, and respiratory disease deaths, respectively. With reduction of PM_2.5 concentration, impact of PM_2.5 on respiratory disease deaths decreased, but the impact of PM_2.5 on total non-accidental deaths and circulatory disease deaths did not change significantly.

Conclusion

Although PM_2.5 has been greatly reduced in recent years, PM_2.5 pollution is still serious in Shijiazhuang. PM_2.5 was significantly associated with non-accidental death, cardiovascular disease death, and respiratory disease death. As PM_2.5 concentrations decreased, risk of death from respiratory diseases also decreased.

Cumulative effects of ambient particulate matter pollution on deaths: A multicity analysis of mortality displacement

BACKGROUND

Systematic evaluations of the cumulative effects and mortality displacement of ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution on deaths are lacking. We aimed to discern the cumulative effect profile of PM exposure, and investigate the presence of mortality displacement in a large-scale population.

METHODS

We conducted a time-series analysis with different exposure-lag models on 13 cities in Jiangsu, China, to estimate the effects of PM pollution on non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality (2015-2019). Over-dispersed Poisson generalized additive models were integrated with distributed lag models to estimate cumulative exposure effects, and assess mortality displacement.

RESULTS

Pooled cumulative effect estimates with lags of 0-7 and 0-14 days were substantially larger than those with single-day and 2-day moving average lags. For each 10 μg/m³ increment in PM_2.5 concentration with a cumulative lag of 0-7 days, we estimated an increase of 0.50 % (95 % CI: 0.29, 0.72), 0.63 % (95 % CI: 0.38, 0.88), and 0.50 % (95 % CI: 0.01, 1.01) in pooled estimates of non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. Both PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 were associated with significant increases in non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality with a cumulative lag of 0-14 days. We observed mortality displacement within 30 days for non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that risk assessment based on single-day or 2-day moving average lag structures may underestimate the adverse effects of PM pollution. The cumulative effects of PM exposure on non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality can last up to 14 days. Evidence of mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths was found.

Association of ambient ozone with pneumonia hospital admissions in Hong Kong and Taipei: A tale of two Southeast Asian cities

Ozone (O₃) is a reactive oxidant exerting both inflammatory and oxidative damages to the respiratory system. With the ground-level O₃ progressively increasing in the past decade, the reevaluation of the pneumonia hospitalization risk from exposure to O₃ is of public health interest. We conducted an ecological time-series study to examine the city-specific association between short-term O₃ exposure and pneumonia hospitalizations in Hong Kong and Taipei, respectively. We linked the daily pneumonia hospitalization count to air pollution concentrations and weather conditions according to the date of admission during 2010-2017. We applied a generalized additive distributed lag model to examine the association while adjusting for time-varying covariates. Stratified analysis by age group and the potential harvesting effect of O₃ were evaluated. We observed the harvesting effects of O₃ on pneumonia hospitalizations in children in both cities and adults in Taipei. The short-term effect of O₃ lasted for around one week. An interquartile range (IQR) increment of daytime 8-hour mean concentration of O₃ distributed over 0-6 lag days in Hong Kong (42.4 μg/m³) was associated with a 7.04% (95% CI: 5.35-8.76%) increase in hospital admissions for elderly pneumonia, while the corresponding cumulative excess risk per IQR increment of O₃ in Taipei (38.7 μg/m³) was 3.41% (95% CI: 1.63-5.22%). Different O₃ metrics, varying degrees of freedom for filtering the temporal trend, and three-pollutant models supported the robustness of the associations. We concluded that short-term O₃ exposure was associated with pneumonia hospitalizations in the elderly population. Understanding the pneumonia hospitalization risk of O₃ will help to inform public health policies in the planning of ozone control strategies and intervention measures to prevent ozone-related pneumonia in vulnerable elderly populations.

Short-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide and mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Ambient air pollution has been characterized as a leading cause of mortality worldwide and has been associated with cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. There is increasing evidence that short-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), is related to adverse health effects and mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of short-term NO₂ and daily mortality, which were indexed in PubMed and Embase up to June 2021. We calculated random-effects estimates by different continents and globally, and tested for heterogeneity and publication bias.

RESULTS

We included 87 articles in our quantitative analysis. NO₂ and all-cause as well as cause-specific mortality were positively associated in the main analysis. For all-cause mortality, a 10 ppb increase in NO₂ was associated with a 1.58% (95%CI 1.28%-1.88%, I² = 96.3%, Eggers' test p < 0.01, N = 57) increase in the risk of death. For cause-specific mortality, a 10 ppb increase in NO₂ was associated with a 1.72% (95%CI 1.41%-2.04%, I² = 87.4%, Eggers' test p < 0.01, N = 42) increase in cardiovascular mortality and a 2.05% (95%CI 1.52%-2.59%, I² = 78.5%, Eggers' test p < 0.01, N = 38) increase in respiratory mortality. In the sensitivity analysis, the meta-estimates for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality were nearly identical. The heterogeneity would decline to varying degrees through regional and study-design stratification.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence of an association between short-term exposure to NO₂, a proxy for traffic-sourced air pollutants, and all-cause, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality.

Short-term effect of fine particulate matter and ozone on non-accidental mortality and respiratory mortality in Lishui district, China

Background

In recent years, air pollution has become an imminent problem in China. Few studies have investigated the impact of air pollution on the mortality of the middle-aged and elderly people. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the impact of PM_2.5 (fine particulate matter) and O₃ (ozone) on non-accidental mortality and respiratory mortality of the middle-aged and elderly people in Lishui District of Nanjing and provide the evidence for potential prevention and control measures of air pollution.

Method

Using daily mortality and atmospheric monitoring data from 2015 to 2019, we applied a generalized additive model with time-series analysis to evaluate the association of PM_2.5 and O₃ exposure with daily non-accidental mortality and respiratory mortality in Lishui District. Using the population attributable fractions to estimate the death burden caused by short-term exposure to O₃ and PM_2.5。.

Result

For every 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5, non-accidental mortality increased 0.94% with 95% confidence interval (CI) between 0.05 and 1.83%, and PM_2.5 had a more profound impact on females than males. For every 10 μg/m³ increase in O₃, respiratory mortality increased 1.35% (95% CI: 0.05, 2.66%) and O₃ had a more profound impact on males than females. Compared with the single pollutant model, impact of the two-pollutant model on non-accidental mortality and respiratory mortality slightly decreased. In summer and winter as opposed to the other seasons, O₃ had a more obvious impact on non-accidental mortality. The population attributable fractions of non-accidental mortality were 0.84% (95% CI:0.00, 1.63%) for PM_2.5 and respiratory mortality were 0.14% (95% CI:0.01, 0.26%) for O₃. For every 10 μg/m³ decrease in PM_2.5, 122 (95% CI: 6, 237) non-accidental deaths could be avoided. For every 10 μg/m³ decrease in O₃, 10 (95% CI: 1, 38) respiratory deaths could be avoided.

Conclusion

PM_2.5 and O₃ could significantly increase the risk of non-accidental and respiratory mortality in the middle-aged and elderly people in Lishui District of Nanjing. Exposed to air pollutants, men were more susceptible to O₃ damage, and women were more susceptible to PM_2.5 damage. Reduction of PM_2.5 and O₃ concentration in the air may have the potential to avoid considerable loss of lives.

The Effects of Air Quality on Hospital Admissions for Chronic Respiratory Diseases in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia, 2013–2015

This study assesses the impact of a decrease in air quality and the risk of hospital admissions to a public hospital for chronic respiratory diseases for residents of Petaling Jaya, a city in the Greater Kuala Lumpur area in Malaysia. Data on hospital admissions for asthma, bronchitis, emphysema and other chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, weather conditions and the Malaysian Air Pollution Index, a composite indicator of air quality, were collated. An unconstrained distributed lag model to obtain risk of hospitalization for a 10 μg/m3 increase in the API. The lag cumulative effect for a 10 μg/m3 increase in the API was calculated to test for harvesting in the short term. Findings indicate that after an initial decrease in admissions (days 3 and 4), admissions increased again at day 7 and 8 and this relationship was significant. We therefore conclude that a 10 μg/m3 increase has a greater effect on admissions for respiratory health in the short term than a harvesting effect alone would suggest. These results suggest that while air quality is improving in the Greater Kuala Lumpur area, no level of air pollution can be deemed safe.

The association between gaseous pollutants and non-accidental mortality: a time series study

To evaluate the effects of gaseous pollutants (SO₂, NO₂) on non-accidental mortality of residents in Hefei city, we collected non-accidental deaths, air pollutants and meteorological data of Hefei city from 2014 to 2017. After controlling confounding factors with Poisson generalized additive model, we analyzed the relationship between air pollutants and non-accidental mortality and used subgroup analysis to identify susceptible groups. The number of non-accidental deaths during the study period was 42,116, with an average of 28.83 per day. The average concentrations of SO₂ and NO₂ were 16.08 μg/m³ and 39.10 μg/m³, respectively. In the single-pollutant model, every 10 μg/m³ increase in SO₂ and NO₂ concentrations was significantly associated with non-accidental mortality, and there was a significant lag effect. SO₂ increased the risk of non-accidental death by 4.93% (95% CI: 1.94% ~ 8.00%) at lag0-3. In addition, male, the elderly, non-elderly and low-education people were more susceptible (P < 0.05). NO₂ increased the risk of non-accidental death by 2.11% (95% CI: 1.18% ~ 3.05%) at lag0-1 and had an effect on all subgroups (P < 0.05). For every 10 μg/m³ increase in SO₂ and NO₂, the two-pollutant model showed that the risk of non-accidental death, respectively, increased by 3.34% (95% CI: 0.29% ~ 6.50%) and 1.82% (95% CI: 0.85% ~ 2.79%), suggesting that the effect was weakened. Our study suggested that SO₂ and NO₂ were associated with non-accidental mortality, and there were lag effects. Therefore, environmental management should be strengthened and health protection education should be carried out for different groups.

Association of cardiorespiratory hospital admissions with ambient volatile organic compounds: Evidence from a time-series study in Taipei, Taiwan

As important precursors of ozone and secondary organic aerosols, the harmful impact of exposure to ambient volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is of public health interest. However, few studies have investigated the health risks of numerous individual VOC species. This study linked the daily concentrations of 54 C2-C11 VOC species monitored from the Wanhua Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Station and hospital admissions for cardiorespiratory diseases in Taipei, Taiwan, from the National Health Insurance Research Database. A standard time-series approach entailing a series of sensitivity analyses was applied to investigate the short-term health risks of exposure to VOC subgroups and species. Consistent associations of all VOC subgroups and main species with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) hospitalizations were demonstrated. In addition, associations of the C5-C6 alkanes, C2-C3 alkenes, toluene, and xylene with asthma hospitalizations were found, as were associations of aromatic hydrocarbons with hospitalizations for heart failure. An interquartile range increase in total VOC exposure at lag0 day (102.6 parts per billion carbon) was associated with increments of 1.84% (95% confidence interval: 0.54%-3.15%), 1.65% (0.71%-2.60%), and 1.21% (0.36%-2.07%) in hospitalizations for asthma, COPD, and heart failure, respectively. The effect estimates were robust with data excluding extreme values, the second pollutant adjustment for PM_2.5 and O₃, and the Bonferroni correction. The associations of ambient VOC exposure with cardiorespiratory hospitalizations in Taipei serve as a reference for VOC regulations and ozone control strategies.

Acute effect of particulate matter pollution on hospital admissions for stroke among patients with type 2 diabetes in Beijing, China, from 2014 to 2018

BACKGROUND

The health effect of particulate matter pollution on stroke has been widely examined; however, the effect among patients with comorbid type 2 diabetes (T2D) in developing countries has remained largely unknown.

METHODS

A time-series study was conducted to investigate the short-term effect of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and inhalable particulate matter (PM₁₀) on hospital admissions for stroke among patients with T2D in Beijing, China, from 2014 to 2018. An over-dispersed Poisson generalized additive model was employed to adjust for important covariates, such as weather conditions and long-term and seasonal trends.

RESULTS

A total of 159,298 hospital admissions for stroke comorbid with T2D were reported. Approximately linear exposure-response curves were observed for PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ in relation to stroke admissions among T2D patients. A 10 μg/m³ increase in the four-day moving average of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ was associated with 0.14% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.05-0.23%) and 0.14% (95% CI: 0.06-0.22%) incremental increases in stroke admissions among T2D patients, respectively. A 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 in the two-day moving average corresponded to a 0.72% (95% CI: 0.02-1.42%) incremental increase in hemorrhagic stroke, and a 10 μg/m³ increase in PM₁₀ in the four-day moving average corresponded to a 0.14% (95% CI: 0.06-0.22%) incremental increase in ischemic stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

High particulate matter might be a risk factor for stroke among patients with T2D. PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ have a linear exposure-response relationship with stroke among T2D patients. The study provided evidence of the risk of stroke due to particulate matter pollution among patients with comorbid T2D.

How mobility restrictions policy and atmospheric conditions impacted air quality in the State of São Paulo during the COVID-19 outbreak

Mobility restrictions are among actions to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and have been pointed as reasons for improving air quality, especially in large cities. However, it is crucial to assess the impact of atmospheric conditions on air quality and air pollutant dispersion in the face of the potential variability of all sources. In this study, the impact of mobility restrictions on the air quality was analyzed for the most populous Brazilian State, São Paulo, severely impacted by COVID-19. Ground-based air quality data (PM₁₀, PM_2.5, CO, SO₂, NO_x, NO₂, NO, and O₃) were used from 50 automatic air quality monitoring stations to evaluate the changes in concentrations before (January 01 - March 25) and during the partial quarantine (March 16 - June 30). Rainfall, fires, and daily cell phone mobility data were also used as supplementary information to the analyses. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to assess the heterogeneity of the air quality data during and before mobility restrictions. In general, the results demonstrated no substantial improvements in air quality for most of the pollutants when comparing before and during restrictions periods. Besides, when the analyzed period of 2020 is compared with the year 2019, there is no significant air quality improvement in the São Paulo State. However, special attention should be given to the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP), due to the vast population residing in this area and exposed to air pollution. The region reached an average decrease of 29% in CO, 28% in NO_x, 40% in NO, 19% in SO₂, 15% in PM_2.5, and 8% in PM₁₀ concentrations during the mobility restrictions period compared to the same period in 2019. The only pollutant that showed an increase in concentration was ozone, with a 20% increase compared to 2019 during the mobility restrictions period. Before the mobility restrictions period, the region reached an average decrease of 30% in CO, 39% in NO_x, 63% in NO, 12% in SO₂, 23% in PM_2.5, 18% in PM₁₀, and 16% in O₃ concentrations when compared to the same period in 2019. On the other hand, Cubatão, a highly industrialized area, showed statistically significant increases above 20% for most monitored pollutants in both periods of 2020 compared to 2019. This study reinforces that the main driving force of pollutant concentration variability is the dynamics of the atmosphere at its various time scales. An abnormal rainy season, with above average rainfall before the restrictions and below average after it, generated a scenario in which the probable significant reductions in emissions did not substantially affect the concentration of pollutants.

Inter-mortality displacement hypothesis and short-term effect of ambient air pollution on mortality in seven major cities of South Korea: a time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

Inter-mortality displacement (IMD) between cause-specific mortalities has not been introduced in air pollution epidemiology. Investigation into IMD would provide insights on the actual health burden of air pollution and interpretation of associations. We aimed to investigate IMD regarding short-term effect of air pollution on mortality.

METHODS

We illustrated manifestations and interpretations of lag-mortality associations. If IMD exists, a net increase of one cause-specific death can be offset by a net decrease of other cause-specific deaths. We conducted a time-series analysis to estimate associations of ambient particulate matter smaller than 10 µm (PM10), ozone (O3), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon monoxide (CO) with mortality, considering lags up to the previous 45 days, for seven major cities of South Korea from 2006 to 2013. Attributable mortality cases were identified.

RESULTS

For O3, respiratory mortality [11 929 cases, 95% empirical confidence interval (eCI), 5358, 17 688 cases] was counterbalanced by cardiovascular mortality (-11 272 cases, 95% eCI: -22 444, -629 cases). All-cause mortality was 37 148 cases (95% eCI: 4448, 68 782 cases). For PM10, respiratory deaths were 9167 cases (95% eCI: 563, 16 521 cases), and cardiovascular deaths were 6929 cases (95% eCI: -11 793, 24 138 cases). Estimates for SO2 were comparable to those for PM10. All-cause mortality attributable to NO2 was explained by short-term mortality displacement. No associations with mortality were found for CO.

CONCLUSIONS

IMD may exist in the relationship between air pollution and mortality. The actual relationship between air pollution and cause-specific mortality may be masked by IMD.

Mortality attributable to fine particulate matter in Asia, 2000-2015: a cross-sectional cause-of-death analysis

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the effect that particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 μg (PM2.5) had on mortality in Asian populations in years 2000-2015.

SETTING

Mortality and level of PM2.5 data from the United Nations, Global Burden of Disease and University of Chicago were used.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Age pattern of mortality and the number of life-years lost (LYL) attributable to PM2.5 in years 2000-2015. LYL were further separated into causes of death to quantify the contribution of each cause.

RESULTS

Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality increased to represent over 31% of the LYL attributable to PM2.5 between 2005-2010 and 2010-2015 in Asia (females 31% and males 35%). However, great diversity in LYL attributable to PM2.5 by causes-of-death were found across the region, with IHD proportions of LYL ranging from 25% to 63% for males from Eastern and Central Asia, respectively. Similar diversity was observed for mortality attributable to PM2.5 for other causes of death across Asia: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (LYL ranging from 6% to 28%), lung cancer (4% to 20%) and stroke (11% to 22%).

CONCLUSION

PM2.5 is a crucial component in the rising health effects in Asia. The diverse trends in cause-specific mortality attributable to PM2.5 creates a further challenge for health systems in the region. These findings highlight that immediate interventions are needed to mitigate the increasing levels of air pollution and with that reduce its detrimental effect on the health and mortality of Asian populations.

Multi-dimensional community characteristics in linking particulate matter pollution and cause-specific mortality: 72 communities of South Korea

Concentration-response function for exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM) and mortality (i.e., relative risk, RR) may be inequal across communities by socioeconomic conditions. Investigation on specific mechanisms of this inequality regarding susceptibility to PM, beyond non-specific "socioeconomic conditions", would provide policy-relevant implications for tackling this inequality. However, such investigation via epidemiological studies is challenged by residual confounding by correlated mechanisms and different loss of life expectancy by PM exposures between communities. Here, we aimed to assess community characteristics including different aspects of socioeconomic deprivation, medical resources, health behaviors, air quality, and greenness in their relation to inequal RR for PM₁₀ and cause-specific mortality in 72 municipalities in South Korea, 2006-2013, considering these challenges. We found that a 10 μg/m³ increase in PM₁₀ on average across 46 days was associated with a 1.05% (95% CI: 0.24, 1.88) increase in all-cause mortality (ALL), 1.32% (95% CI: -0.29, 2.95) increase in cardiovascular mortality (CVD), and 6.47% (95% CI: 3.06, 10.00) increase in respiratory mortality (RES). The association between PM₁₀ and mortality was higher in communities with higher ratio of SO₂ to PM₁₀ (ALL and RES), higher material deprivation (ALL, CVD, and RES), lower medical resources (CVD), higher prevalence of drinking (ALL and CVD), and lower prevalence of smoking (CVD and RES). Lag-structures showed smaller loss of life expectancy by PM exposures in communities with higher prevalence of smoking. Our findings suggest that PM-related health inequalities are shaped by a variety of mechanisms relating to susceptibility to PM exposures and different loss of life expectancy. Health policies controlling community characteristics may contribute to minimizing PM₁₀-related health inequalities in those perspectives.

Effect of ambient fine particulates (PM2.5) on hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in Wuhan, China

Background

Positive associations between ambient PM_2.5 and cardiorespiratory disease have been well demonstrated during the past decade. However, few studies have examined the adverse effects of PM_2.5 based on an entire population of a megalopolis. In addition, most studies in China have used averaged data, which results in variations between monitoring and personal exposure values, creating an inherent and unavoidable type of measurement error.

Methods

This study was conducted in Wuhan, a megacity in central China with about 10.9 million people. Daily hospital admission records, from October 2016 to December 2018, were obtained from the Wuhan Information center of Health and Family Planning, which administrates all hospitals in Wuhan. Daily air pollution concentrations and weather variables in Wuhan during the study period were collected. We developed a land use regression model (LUR) to assess individual PM_2.5 exposure. Time-stratified case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression models were adopted to estimate cardiorespiratory hospitalization risks associated with short-term exposure to PM_2.5. We also conducted stratification analyses by age, sex, and season.

Results

A total of 2,806,115 hospital admissions records were collected during the study period, from which we identified 332,090 cardiovascular disease admissions and 159,365 respiratory disease admissions. Short-term exposure to PM_2.5 was associated with an increased risk of a cardiorespiratory hospital admission. A 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 (lag0–2 days) was associated with an increase in hospital admissions of 1.23% (95% CI 1.01–1.45%) and 1.95% (95% CI 1.63–2.27%) for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, respectively. The elderly were at higher PM-induced risk. The associations appeared to be more evident in the cold season than in the warm season.

Conclusions

This study contributes evidence of short-term effects of PM_2.5 on cardiorespiratory hospital admissions, which may be helpful for air pollution control and disease prevention in Wuhan.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12931-021-01731-x.

How atmospheric pollutants impact the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer: A var-based model

The impact of air pollution on humans is a worrisome factor that has gained prominence over the years due to the importance of the topic to society. Lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are among the diseases associated with pollution that increase the mortality rate in Brazil and worldwide. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the impacts of air pollutants on mortality rates from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer (LC) using vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling. The adjusted model was a VAR(1) and, according to the Granger causality test, the air pollutants selected were PM₁₀, O₃, CO, NO₂, and SO₂. The shocks applied to the variables O₃, using the impulse response function, negatively impacted COPD; in the eighth period, which is stabilized. The LC variable suffered more significant variations from O₃ and after a shock in this variable, an initially negative response in LC occurred and the series stabilized in period nine. After one year, 20.19% of COPD variance was explained by O₃. After twelve months, the atmospheric pollutant O₃ represented 5.00% and NO₂ represented 4.02% of LC variance. Moreover, the variables that caused the highest impact on COPD and LC mortality rates were O₃ and NO₂, indicating that air pollution influences the clinical state of people who have these diseases and even contributes to their development. The VAR model was able to identify the air pollutants that have the most significant impact on the diseases analyzed and explained the interrelationship between them.

Ambient carbon monoxide and daily mortality: a global time-series study in 337 cities

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological evidence on short-term association between ambient carbon monoxide (CO) and mortality is inconclusive and limited to single cities, regions, or countries. Generalisation of results from previous studies is hindered by potential publication bias and different modelling approaches. We therefore assessed the association between short-term exposure to ambient CO and daily mortality in a multicity, multicountry setting.

METHODS

We collected daily data on air pollution, meteorology, and total mortality from 337 cities in 18 countries or regions, covering various periods from 1979 to 2016. All included cities had at least 2 years of both CO and mortality data. We estimated city-specific associations using confounder-adjusted generalised additive models with a quasi-Poisson distribution, and then pooled the estimates, accounting for their statistical uncertainty, using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model. We also assessed the overall shape of the exposure-response curve and evaluated the possibility of a threshold below which health is not affected.

FINDINGS

Overall, a 1 mg/m³ increase in the average CO concentration of the previous day was associated with a 0·91% (95% CI 0·32-1·50) increase in daily total mortality. The pooled exposure-response curve showed a continuously elevated mortality risk with increasing CO concentrations, suggesting no threshold. The exposure-response curve was steeper at daily CO levels lower than 1 mg/m³, indicating greater risk of mortality per increment in CO exposure, and persisted at daily concentrations as low as 0·6 mg/m³ or less. The association remained similar after adjustment for ozone but was attenuated after adjustment for particulate matter or sulphur dioxide, or even reduced to null after adjustment for nitrogen dioxide.

INTERPRETATION

This international study is by far the largest epidemiological investigation on short-term CO-related mortality. We found significant associations between ambient CO and daily mortality, even at levels well below current air quality guidelines. Further studies are warranted to disentangle its independent effect from other traffic-related pollutants.

FUNDING

EU Horizon 2020, UK Medical Research Council, and Natural Environment Research Council.

Air pollution and cardiovascular mortality in Nanjing, China: Evidence highlighting the roles of cumulative exposure and mortality displacement

BACKGROUND

Few studies have investigated cumulative effects and mortality displacement of short-term air pollution exposure on deaths; therefore, uncertainty remains regarding its public health significance.

METHODS

We obtained air pollution and daily cause-specific mortality data of Nanjing from January 2004 to December 2019, covering a period of 16 years. We performed a time-series analysis with single-day, 2-day moving average, and distributed lag models, respectively, to estimate the effects of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO_2, and SO₂ exposure on total cardiovascular disease, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease (CBVD) mortality. Distributed lag models were used to assess the roles of cumulative exposure and mortality displacement.

RESULTS

Cumulative effect estimates for 0-7 lag days were more considerable than estimates for single-day lags and 2-day moving average lag. The cumulative effect estimates for PM₁₀, NO₂ and SO₂ on total cardiovascular and CBVD mortality became essentially zero within 30 days, which suggested the existence of mortality displacement. But the cumulative effect estimates for PM_2.5 and SO₂ on IHD mortality remained elevated and statistically significant within 27 (2.11%; 95% CI: 0.12, 4.27%) and 22 (2.63%; 95% CI: 0.39, 4.91%) days, respectively, which suggested the absence of mortality displacement.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicated that risk assessment based on single-day or 2-day moving average exposure rather than cumulative exposure likely underestimate the adverse effects of air pollution. The cumulative PM_2.5 and SO₂ exposure for nearly a month may have adverse effects on IHD mortality.

Particulate matter pollution and risk of outpatient visits for psychological diseases in Nanjing, China

Exposure to air pollution has been associated with increased risk for a range of adverse mental health conditions. Less is known about whether air pollution is also associated with increases in the utilization of mental health services, especially outpatient mental health service utilization. This study aimed to examine the association between the number of daily outpatient visits at the psychological disease departments of two major hospitals (PSYC) and daily average concentrations of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ in a heavily polluted city in China, Nanjing, from 2013/7/1 to 2019/2/28, using generalized additive models with a quasi-Poisson regression. Results showed that each 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 concentration on lag0 day was associated with a 0.40% increase (95% CI: 0.07-0.72) in PSYC visits, and each 10 μg/m³ increase in PM₁₀ concentration on the same day a 0.31% increase (95% CI: 0.09-0.54) in PSYC visits. Exposure-response curves suggested linear relationships between PM concentration and daily PSYC outpatient visits, without evidence of a threshold. Associations remained positive, but were non-significant, with adjustment for co-pollutants, SO₂, NO₂ and CO. Significantly larger effects were found for older and male participants, vs. their counterparts. These findings add to the growing literature linking air pollution to mental health service utilization, demonstrating the critical need for both air pollution mitigation measures and increased capacity of the mental health system in China.

Alternative adjustment for seasonality and long-term time-trend in time-series analysis for long-term environmental exposures and disease counts

Background

Time-series analysis with case-only data is a prominent method for the effect of environmental determinants on disease events in environmental epidemiology. In this analysis, adjustment for seasonality and long-term time-trend is crucial to obtain valid findings. When applying this analysis for long-term exposure (e.g., months, years) of which effects are usually studied via survival analysis with individual-level longitudinal data, unlike its application for short-term exposure (e.g., days, weeks), a standard adjustment method for seasonality and long-term time-trend can extremely inflate standard error of coefficient estimates of the effects. Given that individual-level longitudinal data are difficult to construct and often available to limited populations, if this inflation of standard error can be solved, rich case-only data over regions and countries would be very useful to test a variety of research hypotheses considering unique local contexts.

Methods

We discuss adjustment methods for seasonality and time-trend used in time-series analysis in environmental epidemiology and explain why standard errors can be inflated. We suggest alternative methods to solve this problem. We conduct simulation analyses based on real data for Seoul, South Korea, 2002–2013, and time-series analysis using real data for seven major South Korean cities, 2006–2013 to identify whether the association between long-term exposure and health outcomes can be estimated via time-series analysis with alternative adjustment methods.

Results

Simulation analyses and real-data analysis confirmed that frequently used adjustment methods such as a spline function of a variable representing time extremely inflate standard errors of estimates for associations between long-term exposure and health outcomes. Instead, alternative methods such as a combination of functions of variables representing time can make sufficient adjustment with efficiency.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that time-series analysis with case-only data can be applied for estimating long-term exposure effects. Rich case-only data such as death certificates and hospitalization records combined with repeated measurements of environmental determinants across countries would have high potentials for investigating the effects of long-term exposure on health outcomes allowing for unique contexts of local populations.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-020-01199-1.

The short-term harvesting effects of ambient particulate matter on mortality in Taiyuan elderly residents: A time-series analysis with a generalized additive distributed lag model

The evaluation on mortality displacement and distributed lag effects of airborne particulate matter (PM) on death risks is important to understand the positive association of short-term pollution from both ambient PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 with daily mortality. Herein, short-term influences of urban PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 exposure on the mortality of respiratory diseases (RD) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) were studied at Taiyuan, China, a typical inland city suffering from heavy ambient PM loading and having high morbidity of RD and CVD. Using a time-series analysis with generalized additive distributed lag model (DLM), the potential mortality displacement was determined and the single-day and cumulative lag-day effects of PM on mortality were estimated after the daily mass concentrations of urban PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ from January 2013 to October 2015 and the daily number of non-accidental death (NAD) and cause-specific mortality in the residents aged more than 65 years old were obtained. Results showed there were significant associations of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ with daily mortality on the current day and within one week. And a statistically significant increase (P < 0.05) in the cumulative effect estimates of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ on CVD, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and myocardial infarction (MI) mortality (as well as PM_2.5 on NAD) was observed, while the associations of PM_2.5 with RD and pneumonia mortality, PM₁₀ with NAD and RD mortality were not statistically significant, when the exposure window was extended to lag 0-30 days. It was concluded that there were harvesting effects and cumulative effects of ambient PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ on the elderly residents' mortality due to RD and CVD at Taiyuan and they could be estimated quantitatively when the broader time window was used, suggesting that the underestimation on the association of ambient PM with non-accidental death can be avoided using the present method in our study.

Exploring the capacity of renewable energy consumption to reduce outdoor air pollution death rate in Latin America and the Caribbean region

The impact of renewable energy consumption on reducing the outdoor air pollution death rate, in nineteen Latin America & the Caribbean countries, from 1990 to 2016, using the econometric technique of quantile regression for panel data, was researched. Results show that economic growth and fossil fuel consumption are positively related to CO₂ emissions, while renewable energy consumption bears a negative relationship with it. Furthermore, fossil fuel consumption has a positive impact on the mortality rate and economic growth a negative one. The negative effect of renewable energy consumption on the mortality rate is only observable on the right tail of its distribution. The modelisation reveals two ways in which the consumption of renewable energy can reduce the outdoor air pollution death rates: (i) directly, by increasing renewable energies, and (i) indirectly because the increase in the consumption of renewable energies implies a decrease in the consumption of energy from fossil fuels. The phenomenon of increasing urbanisation is a point where the action of public policymakers is decisive for the reduction of outdoor air pollution death rates. Here, the question is not to reduce the level of urbanisation but to act on the "quality" of urbanisation, to make cities healthier. The research concludes that public policymakers must focus on intensifying the transition from fossil to renewable energies and improving the quality of cities.

Assessment of personal exposure to particulate air pollution in different microenvironments and traveling by several modes of transportation in Bogotá, Colombia: protocol for a mixed-methods study. (Preprint)

Background

Air pollution in most countries exceeds the levels recommended by the World Health Organization, causing up to one-third of deaths due to noncommunicable diseases. Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and black carbon (BC) from mobile sources are the main contaminants.

Objective

The aim of this study is to assess the relationship of exposure to air pollutants (PM_2.5 and BC) in microenvironments according to respiratory health and physical activity in users traveling by different types of transportation in Bogotá, Colombia.

Methods

A mixed methods study based on a convergent parallel design will be performed with workers and students. The sample will include 350 healthy transport users traveling by different urban transportation modes in three main routes in Bogotá. The study is broken down into two components: (1) a descriptive qualitative component focused on assessing the individual perception of air pollution using semistructured interviews; and (2) a cross-sectional study measuring the individual exposure to PM_2.5 and BC using portable instruments (DustTrak and microAeth, respectively), pulmonary function by spirometry, and physical activity with accelerometry. The analysis will include concurrent triangulation and logistic regression.

Results

The findings will be useful for the conception, design, and decision-making process in the sectors of health and mobility from public, academy, and private perspectives. This study includes personal measurements of PM_2.5 and BC during typical trips in the city to assess the exposure to these contaminants in the major roadways in real time. The study further compares the performance of two different lung tests to identify possible short-term respiratory effects. As a limitation, the protocol will include participants from different institutions in the city, which are not necessarily representative of all healthy populations in Bogotá. In this sense, it is not possible to draw causation conclusions. Moreover, a convergent parallel design could be especially problematic concerning integration because such a design often lacks a clear plan for making a connection between the two sets of results, which may not be well connected. Nevertheless, this study adopts a procedure for how to integrate qualitative and quantitative data in the interpretation of the results and a multilevel regression. The time that participants must live in the city will be considered; this will be controlled in the stratified analysis. Another limitation is the wide age range and working status of the participants. Regional pollution levels and episodes (PM_2.5) will be handled as confounding variables. The study is currently in the enrollment phase of the participants. Measurements have been made on 300 participants. Pandemic conditions affected the study schedule; however, the results are likely to be obtained by late 2022.

Conclusions

This study investigates the exposure to air pollutants in microenvironments in Bogotá, Colombia. To our knowledge, this is the first mixed methods study focusing on PM_2.5, BC, and respiratory health effects in a city over 2 meters above sea level. This study will provide an integration of air pollution exposure variables and respiratory health effects in different microenvironments.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

PRR1-10.2196/25690

Short term effects of air pollutants on hospital admissions for respiratory diseases among children: A multi-city time-series study in China

Evidence concerning short-term acute association between air pollutants and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases among children in a multi-city setting was quite limited. We conducted a time-series analysis to evaluate the association of six common air pollutants with hospital admissions for respiratory diseases among children aged 0-14 years in 4 cities (Guangzhou, Shanghai, Wuhan and Xining), China during 2013-2018. We used generalized additive models incorporating penalized smoothing splines and random-effect meta-analysis to calculate city-specific and pooled estimates, respectively. The exposure-response relationship curves were fitted using the cubic spline regression. Subgroup analyses by gender, age, season and disease subtype were also performed. A total of 183,036 respiratory diseases hospitalizations were recorded during the study period, and 94.1% of the cases were acute respiratory infections. Overall, we observed that increased levels of air pollutants except O₃, were significantly associated with increased hospital admissions for respiratory disease. Each 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5, SO₂ and NO₂ at lag 07, PM₁₀ at lag 03 and per 1 mg/m³ increase in CO at lag 01 corresponded to increments of 1.19%, 3.58%, 2.23%, 0.51% and 6.10% in total hospitalizations, respectively. Generally, exposure-response relationships of PM_2.5 and SO₂ in Guangzhou, SO₂, NO₂ and CO in Wuhan, as well as SO₂ and NO₂ in Xining with respiratory disease hospitalizations were also found. Moreover, the adverse effects of these pollutants apart from PM_2.5 in certain cities remained significant even at exposure levels below the current Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standards (CAAQS) Grade II. Children aged 4-14 years appeared to be more vulnerable to the adverse effects of PM_2.5, SO₂ and NO₂. Furthermore, with the exception of O₃, the associations were stronger in cold season than in warm season. Short-term exposure to PM_2.5, SO₂, NO₂ and CO were associated, in dose-responsive manners, with increased risks of hospitalizations for childhood respiratory diseases, and adverse effects of air pollutants except PM_2.5 held even at exposure levels below the current CAAQS Grade II in certain cities.

Association of ambient non-methane hydrocarbons exposure with respiratory hospitalizations: A time series study in Taipei, Taiwan

Ambient hydrocarbons are important precursors of ground-level ozone and secondary organic aerosol formation. However, few studies have assessed the health impact of airborne hydrocarbons. We conducted this time series ecological study to evaluate the association of short-term airborne hydrocarbons exposure with hospital admissions for respiratory diseases, while controlling for co-exposure to criteria pollutants. Taipei air pollution and weather data for the period spanning from January 2010 to December 2017 were obtained from Taiwan Air Quality Monitoring Network. Subsequently, daily pollutant concentrations were linked with daily hospital admission counts for respiratory diseases into a time series data frame. The standard generalized additive Poisson model adjusted for temporal trends, seasonal variations, weather conditions, and calendar effects, was applied to examine the short-term associations of acute airborne hydrocarbon exposure with respiratory hospital admissions. Next, the robustness of the associations was tested using two-pollutant models with further adjustment for fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and gaseous pollutants. The results demonstrated that an interquartile range increase in non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) exposure on lag0 day (0.15 ppm) was associated with a 0.86% (95% confidence interval: 0.37%-1.36%), 2.06% (0.77%-3.38%), and 1.25% (0.31%-2.20%) increment in all-respiratory-disease-, asthma-, and chronic-obstructive-pulmonary-disease-linked hospital admissions, respectively. The associations were robust with further adjustment for co-exposure to PM_2.5 and ozone. The acute effect estimate of methane on each respiratory category was sensitive to the co-pollutant adjustment and lost statistical significance in the two-pollutant models. In conclusion, we confirmed that airborne NMHC exposure increased the risk of respiratory-disease-related hospital admissions in Taipei; this information may aid in the regulation of hydrocarbon pollution.

Health Impact Assessment of Volcanic Ash Inhalation: A Comparison With Outdoor Air Pollution Methods

This paper critically appraises the extrapolation of concentration-response functions (CRFs) for fine and coarse particulate matter, PM2.5 and PM10, respectively, used in outdoor air pollution health impact assessment (HIA) studies to assess the extent of health impacts in communities exposed to volcanic emissions. Treating volcanic ash as PM, we (1) consider existing models for HIA for general outdoor PM, (2) identify documented health effects from exposure to ash in volcanic eruptions, (3) discuss potential issues of applying CRFs based on the composition and concentration of ash-related PM, and (4) critically review available case studies of volcanic exposure scenarios utilizing HIA for outdoor air pollution. We identify a number of small-scale studies focusing on populations exposed to volcanic ash; exposure is rarely quantified, and there is limited evidence concerning the health effects of PM from volcanic eruptions. That limited evidence is, however, consistent with the CRFs typically used for outdoor air pollution HIA. Two health assessments of exposure to volcanic emissions have been published using population- and occupational-based CRFs, though each application entails distinct assumptions and limitations. We conclude that the best available strategy, at present, is to apply outdoor air pollution risk estimates to scenarios involving volcanic ash emissions for the purposes of HIA. However, due to the knowledge gaps on, for example, the health effects from exposure to volcanic ash and differences in ash composition, there is inherent uncertainty in this application. To conclude, we suggest actions to enable better prediction and assessment of health impacts of volcanic emissions.

Mitigating the air pollution effect? The remarkable decline in the pollution-mortality relationship in Hong Kong

Using transboundary pollution from mainland China as an instrument, we show that air pollution leads to higher cardio-respiratory mortality in Hong Kong. However, the air pollution effect has dramatically decreased over the past two decades: before 2003, a 10-unit increase in the Air Pollution Index could lead to a 3.1% increase in monthly cardio-respiratory mortality, but this effect has declined to 0.5% using recent data and is no longer statistically significant. Exploratory analyses suggest that a well-functioning medical system and immediate access to emergency services can help mitigate the contemporaneous effects of pollution on mortality.

The interplay of haze characteristics on mortality in the Pearl River Delta of China

To estimate the mortality risk from haze and the modifying effects by three characteristics of haze (intensity, duration and timing), data on haze and mortality in the Pearl River Delta region from 2013 to 2016 were collected. We first estimated mortality risk during haze days compared with non-haze days. Then we classified haze into several categories by considering one or any two of the three haze characteristics together, and further calculated the mortality risks separately. The mortality risk increased 5.0% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 3.1%-6.9%) during hazy days compared with non-haze days, with larger effect for the elderly ≥ 85 years old (Excess risk (ER): 8.7%, 95% CI: 3.9%-13.6%) than other age groups. Mortality risk increased in longer haze (ER: 4.4%, 95% CI: 2.9%-6.0%) compared with shorter haze (ER: 1.9%, 95% CI: 0.7%-3.2%). The greatest effect of any two of haze characteristics was observed when haze was intense and long (ER: 4.8%, 95% CI: 3.0%-6.6%). Our study indicates that haze significantly increased mortality risk in the Pearl River Delta. The health effects of haze may be under-estimated when using a single air pollutant concentration during haze periods to assess health risk of haze events. The haze intensity, duration, and time of occurrence should be accounted for in appropriate risk assessment of haze.

Fine particulate air pollution and adult hospital admissions in 200 Chinese cities: a time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

The association between short-term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and morbidity risk in developing countries is not fully understood. We conducted a nationwide time-series study to estimate the short-term effect of PM2.5 on hospital admissions in Chinese adults.

METHODS

Daily counts of hospital admissions for 2014-16 were obtained from the National Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance database. We identified more than 58 million hospitalizations from 0.28 billion insured persons in 200 Chinese cities for subjects aged 18 years or older. Generalized additive models with quasi-Poisson regression were applied to examine city-specific associations of PM2.5 concentrations with hospital admissions. National-average estimates of the association were obtained from a random-effects meta-analysis. We also investigated potential effect modifiers, such as age, sex, temperature and relative humidity.

RESULTS

An increase of 10 μg/m3 in same-day PM2.5 concentrations was positively associated with a 0.19% (95% confidence interval: 0.07-0.30) increase in the daily number of hospital admissions at the national level. PM2.5 exposure remained positively associated with hospital admissions on days when the daily concentrations met the current Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standards (75 μg/m3). Estimates of admission varied across cities and increased in cities with lower PM2.5 concentrations (p = 0.044) or higher temperatures (p = 0.002) and relative humidity (p = 0.003). The elderly were more sensitive to PM2.5 exposure (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Short-term exposure to PM2.5 was positively associated with adult hospital admissions in China, even at levels below current Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standards.

The impact of ambient ozone pollution on pneumonia: A nationwide time-series analysis

Few large multicity studies have assessed acute effect of tropospheric ozone pollution on pneumonia risk. We aimed to examine the relation between day-to-day changes in ozone concentrations and hospital admissions for pneumonia in China. We conducted a national time-series study in 184 major Chinese cities from 2014 to 2017. City-specific relation between ozone concentrations and pneumonia admissions was evaluated using an over-dispersed generalized additive model. Random-effects meta-analysis was conducted to pool the city-specific estimates. Two-pollutant models were fitted to test the robustness of the relations. We also investigated potential effect modifiers. Overall, we observed increased admissions for pneumonia associated with ozone exposure. The national-average estimates per 10-μg/m³ increase in ozone were 0.14% (95% CI: 0.03%-0.25%) at lag 0 day in the whole year, 0.30% (95% CI: 0.17%-0.43%) at lag 0 day in the warm season, and 0.20% (95% CI: 0.05%-0.34%) at lag 1 day in the cool season. Two-pollutant models indicated that the ozone effects were not confounded by PM_2.5, SO₂, NO₂ or CO. The association between ozone and pneumonia was stronger in the elderly. Ozone levels and gross domestic product per capita reduced the effects of ozone, and smoking enhanced the effects of ozone. In conclusion, we estimated an increase in daily pneumonia admissions associated with ozone exposure in China. As the first national study in China to report acute effect of ozone on pneumonia hospitalizations, our findings are incredibly meaningful in terms of both ozone pollution related policy development and pneumonia prevention.

Association between ambient fine particulate pollution and hospital admissions for cause specific cardiovascular disease: time series study in 184 major Chinese cities

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the risks of daily hospital admissions for cause specific major cardiovascular diseases associated with short term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm; PM_2.5) pollution in China.

DESIGN

National time series study.

SETTING

184 major cities in China.

POPULATION

8 834 533 hospital admissions for cardiovascular causes in 184 Chinese cities recorded by the national database of Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2017.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Daily counts of city specific hospital admissions for primary diagnoses of ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, heart rhythm disturbances, ischaemic stroke, and haemorrhagic stroke among different demographic groups were used to estimate the associations between PM_2.5 and morbidity. An overdispersed generalised additive model was used to estimate city specific associations between PM_2.5 and cardiovascular admissions, and random effects meta-analysis used to combine the city specific estimates.

RESULTS

Over the study period, a mean of 47 hospital admissions per day (standard deviation 74) occurred for cardiovascular disease, 26 (53) for ischaemic heart disease, one (five) for heart failure, two (four) for heart rhythm disturbances, 14 (28) for ischaemic stroke, and two (four) for haemorrhagic stroke. At the national average level, an increase of 10 μg/m³ in PM_2.5 was associated with a 0.26% (95% confidence interval 0.17% to 0.35%) increase in hospital admissions on the same day for cardiovascular disease, 0.31% (0.22% to 0.40%) for ischaemic heart disease, 0.27% (0.04% to 0.51%) for heart failure, 0.29% (0.12% to 0.46%) for heart rhythm disturbances, and 0.29% (0.18% to 0.40%) for ischaemic stroke, but not with haemorrhagic stroke (-0.02% (-0.23% to 0.19%)). The national average association of PM_2.5 with cardiovascular disease was slightly non-linear, with a sharp slope at PM_2.5 levels below 50 μg/m³, a moderate slope at 50-250 μg/m³, and a plateau at concentrations higher than 250 μg/m³. Compared with days with PM_2.5 up to 15 μg/m³, days with PM_2.5 of 15-25, 25-35, 35-75, and 75 μg/m³ or more were significantly associated with increases in cardiovascular admissions of 1.1% (0 to 2.2%), 1.9% (0.6% to 3.2%), 2.6% (1.3% to 3.9%), and 3.8% (2.1% to 5.5%), respectively.According to projections, achieving the Chinese grade 2 (35 μg/m³), Chinese grade 1 (15 μg/m³), and World Health Organization (10 μg/m³) regulatory limits for annual mean PM_2.5 concentrations would reduce the annual number of admissions for cardiovascular disease in China. Assuming causality, which should be done with caution, this reduction would translate into an estimated 36 448 (95% confidence interval 24 441 to 48 471), 85 270 (57 129 to 113 494), and 97 516 (65 320 to 129 820), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that in China, short term exposure to PM_2.5 is associated with increased hospital admissions for all major cardiovascular diseases except for haemorrhagic stroke, even for exposure levels not exceeding the current regulatory limits.