Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being

Citizen science in data and resource-limited areas: A tool to detect long-term ecosystem changes

Coral reefs are threatened by numerous global and local stressors. In the face of predicted large-scale coral degradation over the coming decades, the importance of long-term monitoring of stress-induced ecosystem changes has been widely recognised. In areas where sustained funding is unavailable, citizen science monitoring has the potential to be a powerful alternative to conventional monitoring programmes. In this study we used data collected by volunteers in Southeast Sulawesi (Indonesia), to demonstrate the potential of marine citizen science programmes to provide scientifically sound information necessary for detecting ecosystem changes in areas where no alternative data are available. Data were collected annually between 2002 and 2012 and consisted of percent benthic biotic and abiotic cover and fish counts. Analyses revealed long-term coral reef ecosystem change. We observed a continuous decline of hard coral, which in turn had a significant effect on the associated fishes, at community, family and species levels. We provide evidence of the importance of marine citizen science programmes in detecting long-term ecosystem change as an effective way of delivering conservation data to local government and national agencies. This is particularly true for areas where funding for monitoring is unavailable, resulting in an absence of ecological data. For citizen science data to contribute to ecological monitoring and local decision-making, the data collection protocols need to adhere to sound scientific standards, and protocols for data evaluation need to be available to local stakeholders. Here, we describe the monitoring design, data treatment and statistical analyses to be used as potential guidelines in future marine citizen science projects.

Whitebark and Foxtail Pine in Yosemite, Sequoia, and Kings Canyon National Parks: Initial Assessment of Stand Structure and Condition

The Inventory & Monitoring Division of the U.S. National Park Service conducts long-term monitoring to provide park managers information on the status and trends in biological and environmental attributes including white pines. White pines are foundational species in many subalpine ecosystems and are currently experiencing population declines. Here we present results on the status of whitebark and foxtail pine in the southern Sierra Nevada of California, an area understudied relative to other parts of their ranges. We selected random plot locations in Yosemite, Sequoia, and Kings Canyon national parks using an equal probability spatially-balanced approach. Tree- and plot-level data were collected on forest structure, composition, demography, cone production, crown mortality, and incidence of white pine blister rust and mountain pine beetle. We measured 7899 whitebark pine, 1112 foxtail pine, and 6085 other trees from 2012–2017. All factors for both species were spatially highly variable. Whitebark pine occurred in nearly-pure krummholz stands at or near treeline and as a minor component of mixed species forests. Ovulate cones were observed on 25% of whitebark pine and 69% of foxtail pine. Whitebark pine seedlings were recorded in 58% of plots, and foxtail pine seedlings in only 21% of plots. Crown mortality (8% in whitebark, 6% in foxtail) was low and significantly higher in 2017 compared to previous years. Less than 1% of whitebark and zero foxtail pine were infected with white pine blister rust and <1% of whitebark and foxtail pine displayed symptoms of mountain pine beetle attack. High elevation white pines in the southern Sierra Nevada are healthy compared to other portions of their range where population declines are significant and well documented. However, increasing white pine blister rust and mountain pine beetle occurrence, coupled with climate change projections, portend future declines for these species, underscoring the need for broad-scale collaborative monitoring.

Comprehensive Breeding Techniques for the Giant Panda

The dramatic growth of the captive giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) population exemplifies how the application of scientific findings to animal care and reproductive management can improve conservation breeding outcomes. Detailed behavioral studies of giant panda estrus, pregnancy and cub rearing have demonstrated the importance of husbandry management that supports natural reproductive behavior to enhance breeding success. Natural breeding has been valuably augmented by the development of assisted reproductive techniques founded through detailed studies of the reproductive physiology of the giant panda and outlining fundamental information about reproductive seasonality, male fertility and characterization of the estrous cycle. The resultant holistic understanding of giant panda reproduction has improved reproductive success in the captive population to such an extent that it is now self-sustaining and provides surplus animals for reintroduction. Despite these significant advances, there are knowledge gaps and remaining challenges to be addressed. Pregnancy detection remains the single biggest challenge when determining if natural mating or assisted breeding have been successful. Because pregnancy can only be determined in the few weeks prior to parturition, there are gaps in understanding and detecting delayed implantation and early embryonic loss. Additionally, dynamic management practices and standard of care for reproductive assistance needs to be developed. Only large breeding centers in China have the ability to promote normal reproductive behaviors and allow mate choice for the giant panda. These challenges need to be addressed in the near future in order to maintain a self-sustaining, genetically diverse and behaviorally competent captive population. This chapter documents the development of successful giant panda managed breeding programs by focusing on three key areas, (1) the development of science-driven reproductive techniques to improve fecundity in a species where the mating system was poorly understood, (2) how targeted research and adaptive management of social settings surrounding estrus and breeding improved reproductive success, and (3) insights and solutions to challenges faced across the program's history with future directions for research.

The interactive effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change on aquatic ecosystems

Summary of current knowledge about effects of UV radiation in inland and oceanic waters related to stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change.

Increased wave action promotes muscle performance but increasing temperatures cause a tenacity-endurance trade-off in intertidal snails (Nerita atramentosa)

Concurrent increases in wave action and sea surface temperatures increase the physical impact on intertidal organisms and affect their physiological capacity to respond to that impact. Our aim was to determine whether wave exposure altered muscle function in intertidal snails (Nerita atramentosa) and whether responses to wave action and temperature are plastic, leading to compensation for altered environmental conditions. We show that field snails from exposed shores had greater endurance and vertical tenacity than snails from matched protected shores (n = 5 pairs of shores). There were no differences in muscle metabolic capacities (strombine/lactate dehydrogenase, citrate synthase and cytochrome c oxidase activities) between shore types. Maximum stress (force/foot area) produced by isolated foot muscle did not differ between shore types, but foot muscle from snails on exposed shores had greater endurance. A laboratory experiment showed that vertical tenacity was greater in animals acclimated for 3 weeks to cool winter temperatures (15 C) compared to summer temperatures (25 C), but endurance was greater in snails acclimated to 25°C. Acclimation to water flow that mimicked wave action in the field increased vertical tenacity but decreased endurance. Our data show that increased wave action elicits a training effect on muscle, but that increasing sea surface temperature can cause a trade-off between tenacity and endurance. Ocean warming would negate the beneficial increase in tenacity that could render snails more resistant to acute impacts of wave action, while promoting longer term resistance to dislodgment by waves.

Linkages between stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate change and their implications for terrestrial ecosystems

Linkages between stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate change: terrestrial ecosystems.

Bioenergy cropland expansion may offset positive effects of climate change mitigation for global vertebrate diversity

Understanding how land-use and climate change interact is of major importance to project the future of biodiversity. We assessed how the global species richness of vertebrates may become affected by these two threats, especially under a scenario following the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to 2 °C or even 1.5 °C. We found that combined effects of climate and land-use change will be most severe under such a scenario, due to the massive expansion of bioenergy cropland for climate change mitigation. While our findings suggest that the Paris goals will reduce direct climate change impacts on biodiversity, biodiversity will suffer as severely as under a high-level emission scenario if bioenergy remains a major component of climate change mitigation strategies.

Climate and land-use change interactively affect biodiversity. Large-scale expansions of bioenergy have been suggested as an important component for climate change mitigation. Here we use harmonized climate and land-use projections to investigate their potential combined impacts on global vertebrate diversity under a low- and a high-level emission scenario. We combine climate-based species distribution models for the world’s amphibians, birds, and mammals with land-use change simulations and identify areas threatened by both climate and land-use change in the future. The combined projected effects of climate and land-use change on vertebrate diversity are similar under the two scenarios, with land-use change effects being stronger under the low- and climate change effects under the high-emission scenario. Under the low-emission scenario, increases in bioenergy cropland may cause severe impacts in biodiversity that are not compensated by lower climate change impacts. Under this low-emission scenario, larger proportions of species distributions and a higher number of small-range species may become impacted by the combination of land-use and climate change than under the high-emission scenario, largely a result of bioenergy cropland expansion. Our findings highlight the need to carefully consider both climate and land-use change when projecting biodiversity impacts. We show that biodiversity is likely to suffer severely if bioenergy cropland expansion remains a major component of climate change mitigation strategies. Our study calls for an immediate and significant reduction in energy consumption for the benefit of both biodiversity and to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.

The Holistic Effects of Climate Change on the Culture, Well-Being, and Health of the Saami, the Only Indigenous People in the European Union

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

(1) To develop a framework for understanding the holistic effects of climate change on the Saami people; (2) to summarize the scientific evidence about the primary, secondary, and tertiary effects of climate change on Saami culture and Sápmi region; and (3) to identify gaps in the knowledge of the effects of climate change on health and well-being of the Saami.

RECENT FINDINGS

The Saami health is on average similar, or slightly better compared to the health of other populations in the same area. Warming climate has already influenced Saami reindeer culture. Mental health and suicide risk partly linked to changing physical and social environments are major concerns. The lifestyle, diet, and morbidity of the Saami are changing to resemble the majority populations posing threats for the health of the Saami and making them more vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Climate change is a threat for the cultural way of life of Saami. Possibilities for Saami to adapt to climate change are limited.

Thermal tolerance of Mediterranean marine macrophytes: Vulnerability to global warming

The Mediterranean Sea is warming at three times the rate of the global ocean raising concerns about the vulnerability of marine organisms to climate change. Macrophytes play a key role in coastal ecosystems, therefore predicting how warming will affect these key species is critical to understand the effects of climate change on Mediterranean coastal ecosystems. We measured the physiological performance of six dominant native Mediterranean macrophytes under ten temperature treatments ranging from 12 to 34°C to examine their thermal niche, and vulnerability to projected warming in the western Mediterranean up until 2100. Among the macrophytes tested, Cymodocea nodosa was the species with the highest thermal optima and it was beyond current summer temperature. Therefore, C. nodosa may benefit from projected warming over the coming century. The optimal temperature for growth of the other species (Posidonia oceanica, Cystoseira compressa, Padina pavonica, Caulerpa prolifera, and Halimeda tuna) was lower. Similarly, the species presented different upper lethal limits, spanning at least across 5.1°C between 28.9°C (P. oceanica) and >34°C (C. nodosa). Our results demonstrate the variable physiological responses of species within the same local community to temperature changes and highlight important potential differences in climate change vulnerability, among species within coastal marine ecosystems.

Breeding for resilience to increasing temperatures: A field trial assessing genetic variation in soft red winter wheat

Breeding for resilience to climate change is a daunting prospect. Crop and climate models tell us that global wheat yields are likely to decline as the climate warms, causing a significant risk to global food security. High temperatures are known to affect crop development yet breeding for tolerance to heat stress is difficult to achieve in field environments. We conducted an active warming study over two years to quantify the effects of heat stress on genetic variation of soft red winter (SRW) wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Forty SRW cultivars and breeding lines were chosen based on marker genotypes at photoperiod sensitivity and reduced height loci. These genotypes were planted in a randomized complete block design replicated twice across two environments, ambient and artificially warmed. Average heading date occurred 5 days earlier in the warmed environment than in the ambient environment over both years (p ≤ 0.05). On average, grain yield was significantly reduced in the warmed environment by 211.41 kg/ha (p ≤ 0.05) or 4.84%, though we identified 13 genotypes with increased yield in response to warming in both years. Of these genotypes, eight had significantly increased N uptake while six showed significantly increased N utilization efficiency under warming. Under warming, genotypes with wild-type alleles at the Rht-D1 locus display significantly greater yields (p ≤ 0.01) and biomass (p ≤ 0.001) than genotypes with reduced height alleles. Of the 13 genotypes with higher (p ≤ 0.01) yields under warming, nine have the wild-type allele at the Rht-D1 locus in addition to being photoperiod insensitive. The next steps will be to validate these findings in other populations and to develop an efficient breeding/phenotyping scheme that will lead to more resilient cultivars.

Spatial relationship between climatic diversity and biodiversity conservation value

Capturing the full range of climatic diversity in a reserve network is expected to improve the resilience of biodiversity to climate change. Therefore, a study on systematic conservation planning for climatic diversity that explicitly or implicitly hypothesizes that regions with higher climatic diversity support greater biodiversity is needed. However, little is known about the extent and generality of this hypothesis. We used the case of Yunnan, southwest China, to quantitatively classify climatic units and modeled 4 climatic diversity indicators, including the variety (VCU), rarity (RCU), endemism (ECU) of climatic units, and a composite index of climatic diversity (CICD). We used 5 schemes that reliably identify priority conservation areas (PCAs) to identify areas with high biodiversity conservation value. We then investigated the spatial relationships between the 4 climatic diversity indicators and the results of the 5 PCA schemes and assessed the representation of climatic diversity within the existing nature reserves. The CICD was the best indicator of areas with high conservation value, followed by ECU and RCU. Contrary to conventional knowledge, VCU was not positively associated with biodiversity conservation value. The rarer or more endemic climatic units tended to have higher reserve coverage than the more common units. However, only 28 units, covering 10.5% of the land in Yunnan, had >17% of their areas protected. In addition to climatic factors, topography and human disturbances also significantly affected the relationship between climatic diversity and biodiversity conservation value. Our results suggest that climatic diversity can be an effective surrogate for establishing a more robust reserve network under climate change in Yunnan. Our study improves understanding of the relationship between climatic diversity and biodiversity and helps build an evidence-based foundation for systematic conservation planning that targets climatic diversity in response to climate change.

Towards an eco-evolutionary understanding of endemism hotspots and refugia

BACKGROUND

Refugia are island-like habitats that are linked to long-term environmental stability and, as a result, high endemism. Conservation of refugia and endemism hotspots should be based on a deep ecological and evolutionary understanding of their functioning, which remains limited. Although functional traits can provide such insights, a corresponding, coherent framework is lacking.

PROPOSED FRAMEWORK

Plant communities in refugia and endemism hotspots should, due to long-term environmental stability, display unique functional characteristics linked to distinct phylogenetic patterns. Therefore, such communities should be characterized by a functional signature that exhibits: (1) distinct values and combinations of traits, (2) higher functional diversity and (3) a prevalence of similar traits belonging to more distantly related lineages inside, compared to outside, of endemism hotspots and refugia. While the limited functional trait data available from refugia and endemism hotspots do not allow these predictions to be tested rigorously, three potential applications of the functional signature in biogeography and conservation planning are highlighted. Firstly, it allows the functional characteristics of endemism hotspots and refugia to be identified. Secondly, the strength of the functional signature can be compared among these entities, and with the surrounding landscape, to provide an estimate of the capacity of endemism hotspots and refugia to buffer environmental changes. Finally, the pattern of the functional signature can reveal ecological and evolutionary processes driving community assembly and functioning, which can assist in predicting the effect of environmental changes (e.g. climate, land-use) on communities in endemism hotspots and refugia.

CONCLUSION

The proposed functional signature concept allows the systematic integration of plant functional traits and phylogeny into the study of endemism hotspots and refugia, but more data on functional traits in these entities are urgently needed. Overcoming this limitation would facilitate rigorous testing of the proposed predictions for the functional signature, advancing the eco-evolutionary understanding of endemism hotspots and refugia.

Universal significance of the principle of Samanya and Vishesha beyond Ayurveda

There is a fundamental principle in Ayurveda, known as the principle of Samanya (similarity) and Vishesha (difference). While the principle was essentially propounded in the context of yuktivyapashraya (rational medicine) in Ayurveda, here we would like to argue that it has universal applicability in Ayurveda and beyond, across systems and domains of knowledge, including science, technology and humanities, as well as scientific, experiential and traditional knowledge systems. Taking examples of some of the most well-known problems of ecology, economy and society, we demonstrated the universal significance of the principle of Samanya and Vishesha. To illustrate our argument, we have discussed three brief cases, as diverse as family, climate governance, and poverty reduction, and discussed in the light of the Samanya and Vishesha. Evidently, these issues also have larger relevance to public health. Bringing an Ayurveda concept out from its premises is a new order of thinking. The path-breaking insights that were provided, have important implication for deciphering other basic principles of Ayurveda from the perspective of their wider applicability, and thus their robustness. We have indicated a way forward for future research in Ayurveda to develop knowledge-base for evidence-based clinical practice in contemporary society.

Land Use, anthropogenic disturbance, and riverine features drive patterns of habitat selection by a wintering waterbird in a semi-arid environment

River ecosystems in semi-arid environments provide an array of resources that concentrate biodiversity, but also attract human settlement and support economic development. In the southwestern United States, land-use change, drought, and anthropogenic disturbance are compounding factors which have led to departures from historical conditions of river ecosystems, consequently affecting wildlife habitat, including important wintering areas for migratory birds. The Rio Grande (River) in central New Mexico is the lifeblood of the Middle Rio Grande Valley (MRGV), maintaining large urban and agricultural centers and riparian and wetland resources, which disproportionately support a diversity of wildlife. The MRGV has been identified as the most important wintering area for the Rocky Mountain Population of greater sandhill cranes (Antigone canadensis tabida). Presently, however, changes in the hydrogeomorphology of the Rio Grande and landscape modification by humans have reshaped the MRGV and winter habitat for sandhill cranes. To evaluate these impacts, we investigated how land-use practices, anthropogenic disturbance, and river morphology influenced patterns of diurnal and roosting habitat selection by sandhill cranes. During the diurnal period, sandhill cranes relied heavily on managed public lands selecting agriculture crops, such as corn fields, and wetlands for foraging and loafing while avoiding areas with increasing densities of human structures. Sandhill cranes selected areas for roosting in the Rio Grande characterized by shallower water interspersed with sandbars, wide channel width, low bank vegetation, and farther away from disturbances associated with bridges. Our results establish and identify the central processes driving patterns of diel habitat selection by wintering sandhill cranes. Land use and riverine trends have likely gradually reduced winter habitat to managed public lands and limited reaches of the Rio Grande, underscoring the importance of natural resources agencies in supporting migratory birds and challenges involved when managing for wildlife in highly pressured semi-arid environments.

Marginal sinks or potential refuges? Costs and benefits for coral-obligate reef fishes at deep range margins

Escalating climate-related disturbances and asymmetric habitat losses will increasingly result in species living in more marginal habitats. Marginal habitats may represent important refuges if individuals can acquire adequate resources to survive and reproduce. However, resources at range margins are often distributed more sparsely; therefore, increased effort to acquire resources can result in suboptimal performance and lead to marginal populations becoming non-self-sustaining sink-populations. Shifting resource availability is likely to be particularly problematic for dietary specialists. Here, we use extensive in situ behavioural observations and physiological condition measurements to examine the costs and benefits of resource-acquisition along a depth gradient in two obligate corallivore reef fishes with contrasting levels of dietary specialization. As expected, the space used to secure coral resources increased towards the lower depth margin. However, increased territory sizes resulted in equal or greater availability of resources within deeper territories. In addition, we observed decreased competition and no differences in foraging distance, pairing behaviour, body condition or fecundity at greater depths. Contrary to expectation, our results demonstrate that coral-obligate fishes can select high-quality coral patches on the deeper-reef to access equal or greater resources than their shallow-water counterparts, with no extra costs. This suggests depth offers a viable potential refuge for some at-risk coral-specialist fishes.

Optimising the detection of marine taxonomic richness using environmental DNA metabarcoding: the effects of filter material, pore size and extraction method

The analysis of environmental DNA (eDNA) using metabarcoding has increased in use as a method for tracking biodiversity of ecosystems. Little is known about eDNA in marine human-modified environments, such as commercial ports, which are key sites to monitor for anthropogenic impacts on coastal ecosystems. To optimise an eDNA metabarcoding protocol in these environments, seawater samples were collected in a commercial port and methodologies for concentrating and purifying eDNA were tested for their effect on eukaryotic DNA yield and subsequent richness of Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs). Different filter materials [Cellulose Nitrate (CN) and Glass Fibre (GF)], with different pore sizes (0.5 µm, 0.7 µm and 1.2 µm) and three previously published liquid phase extraction methods were tested. The number of eukaryotic OTUs detected differed by a factor of three amongst the method combinations. The combination of CN filters with phenol-chloroform-isoamyl alcohol extractions recovered a higher amount of eukaryotic DNA and OTUs compared to GF filters and the chloroform-isoamyl alcohol extraction method. Pore size was not independent of filter material but did affect the yield of eukaryotic DNA. For the OTUs assigned to a highly successful non-indigenous species, Styelaclava, the two extraction methods with phenol significantly outperformed the extraction method without phenol; other experimental treatments did not contribute significantly to detection. These results highlight that careful consideration of methods is warranted because choice of filter material and extraction method create false negative detections of marine eukaryotic OTUs and underestimate taxonomic richness from environmental samples.

Rapid shifts in distribution and high-latitude persistence of oceanographic habitat revealed using citizen science data from a climate change hotspot

The environmental effects of climate change are predicted to cause distribution shifts in many marine taxa, yet data are often difficult to collect. Quantifying and monitoring species' suitable environmental habitats is a pragmatic approach for assessing changes in species distributions but is underdeveloped for quantifying climate change induced range shifts in marine systems. Specifically, habitat predictions present opportunities for quantifying spatiotemporal distribution changes while accounting for sources of natural climate variation. Here we demonstrate the utility of a marine-based habitat model parameterized using citizen science data and remotely sensed environmental covariates for quantifying shifts in oceanographic habitat suitability over 22 years for a coastal-pelagic fish species in a climate change hotspot. Our analyses account for the effects of natural intra- and interannual climate variability to reveal rapid poleward shifts in core (94.4 km/decade) and poleward edge (108.8 km/decade) oceanographic habitats. Temporal persistence of suitable oceanographic habitat at high latitudes also increased by approximately 3 months over the study period. Our approach demonstrates how marine citizen science data can be used to quantify range shifts, but necessitates shifting focus from species distributions directly, to the distribution of species' environmental habitat preferences.

Warming reduces the cover, richness and evenness of lichen-dominated biocrusts but promotes moss growth: insights from an 8 yr experiment

Despite the important role that biocrust communities play in maintaining ecosystem structure and functioning in drylands world-wide, few studies have evaluated how climate change will affect them. Using data from an 8-yr-old manipulative field experiment located in central Spain, we evaluated how warming, rainfall exclusion and their combination affected the dynamics of biocrust communities in areas that initially had low (< 20%, LIBC plots) and high (> 50%, HIBC plots) biocrust cover. Warming reduced the richness (35 ± 6%), diversity (25 ± 8%) and cover (82 ± 5%) of biocrusts in HIBC plots. The presence and abundance of mosses increased with warming through time in these plots, although their growth rate was much lower than the rate of lichen death, resulting in a net loss of biocrust cover. On average, warming caused a decrease in the abundance (64 ± 7%) and presence (38 ± 24%) of species in the HIBC plots. Over time, lichens and mosses colonized the LIBC plots, but this process was hampered by warming in the case of lichens. The observed reductions in the cover and diversity of lichen-dominated biocrusts with warming will lessen the capacity of drylands such as that studied here to sequester atmospheric CO₂ and to provide other key ecosystem services associated to these communities.

Using species distribution modelling to determine opportunities for trophic rewilding under future scenarios of climate change

Trophic rewilding, the (re)introduction of species to promote self-regulating biodiverse ecosystems, is a future-oriented approach to ecological restoration. In the twenty-first century and beyond, human-mediated climate change looms as a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem function. A critical aspect in planning trophic rewilding projects is the selection of suitable sites that match the needs of the focal species under both current and future climates. Species distribution models (SDMs) are currently the main tools to derive spatially explicit predictions of environmental suitability for species, but the extent of their adoption for trophic rewilding projects has been limited. Here, we provide an overview of applications of SDMs to trophic rewilding projects, outline methodological choices and issues, and provide a synthesis and outlook. We then predict the potential distribution of 17 large-bodied taxa proposed as trophic rewilding candidates and which represent different continents and habitats. We identified widespread climatic suitability for these species in the discussed (re)introduction regions under current climates. Climatic conditions generally remain suitable in the future, although some species will experience reduced suitability in parts of these regions. We conclude that climate change is not a major barrier to trophic rewilding as currently discussed in the literature.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.

Ambient Temperature-Responsive Mechanisms Coordinate Regulation of Flowering Time

In plants, environmental conditions such as temperature affect survival, growth, and fitness, particularly during key stages such as seedling growth and reproduction. To survive and thrive in changing conditions, plants have evolved adaptive responses that tightly regulate developmental processes such as hypocotyl elongation and flowering time in response to environmental temperature changes. Increases in temperature, coupled with increasing fluctuations in local climate and weather, severely affect our agricultural systems; therefore, understanding the mechanisms by which plants perceive and respond to temperature is critical for agricultural sustainability. In this review, we summarize recent findings on the molecular mechanisms of ambient temperature perception as well as possible temperature sensing components in plants. Based on recent publications, we highlight several temperature response mechanisms, including the deposition and eviction of histone variants, DNA methylation, alternative splicing, protein degradation, and protein localization. We discuss roles of each proposed temperature-sensing mechanism that affects plant development, with an emphasis on flowering time. Studies of plant ambient temperature responses are advancing rapidly, and this review provides insights for future research aimed at understanding the mechanisms of temperature perception and responses in plants.

Global patterns of change and variation in sea surface temperature and chlorophyll a

Changes over the scale of decades in oceanic environments present a range of challenges for management and utilisation of ocean resources. Here we investigate sources of global temporal variation in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Ocean Colour (Chl-a) and their co-variation, over a 14 year period using statistical methodologies that partition sources of variation into inter-annual and annual components and explicitly account for daily auto-correlation. The variation in SST shows bands of increasing variability with increasing latitude, while the analysis of annual variability in Chl-a shows mostly mid-latitude high variability bands. Covariation patterns of SST and Chl-a suggests several different mechanisms impacting Chl-a change and variance. Our high spatial resolution analysis indicates these are likely to be operating at relatively small spatial scales. There are large regions showing warming and rising of Chl-a, contrasting with regions that show warming and decreasing Chl-a. The covariation pattern in annual variation in SST and Chl-a reveals broad latitudinal bands. On smaller scales there are significant regional anomalies where upwellings are known to occur. Over decadal time scales both trend and variation in SST, Chl-a and their covariance is highly spatially heterogeneous, indicating that monitoring and resource management must be regionally appropriate.

Dramatic loss of seagrass habitat under projected climate change in the Mediterranean Sea

Although climate warming is affecting most marine ecosystems, the Mediterranean is showing earlier impacts. Foundation seagrasses are already experiencing a well-documented regression in the Mediterranean which could be aggravated by climate change. Here, we forecast distributions of two seagrasses and contrast predicted loss with discrete regions identified on the basis of extant genetic diversity. Under the worst-case scenario, Posidonia oceanica might lose 75% of suitable habitat by 2050 and is at risk of functional extinction by 2100, whereas Cymodocea nodosa would lose only 46.5% in that scenario as losses are compensated with gained and stable areas in the Atlantic. Besides, we predict that erosion of present genetic diversity and vicariant processes can happen, as all Mediterranean genetic regions could decrease considerably in extension in future warming scenarios. The functional extinction of Posidonia oceanica would have important ecological impacts and may also lead to the release of the massive carbon stocks these ecosystems stored over millennia.

Analysis of forty years long changes in coastal land use and land cover of the Yellow Sea: The gains or losses in ecosystem services

The drastic land cover change and its impacts in the Yellow Sea have long been significant issues in terms of coastal vulnerabilities, but holistic data analysis is limited. The present study first reports 40 years long geographical changes of the Yellow Sea coasts including all three neighboring countries of China, North Korea, and South Korea. We delineated tidal flats by analysis of Landsat series satellite imageries (662 scenes) between 1981 and 2016. A total area of the Yellow Sea tidal flats has been considerably reducing for the past 36 years, from ∼10,500 km² (1980s) to ∼6700 km² (2010s), say ∼1% annual loss. A majority loss of tidal flats was mainly due to the grand reclamations that conducted in almost entire coast of the Yellow Sea, particularly concentrated in the 1990s-2000s. Coastal reclaimed area during the past four decades reached ∼9700 km², including ongoing and planned projects, which corresponds to over half the area of precedent natural tidal flats of the Yellow Sea. The potential carbon stocks in the eight representative regions with large scale reclamation indicated significant loss in carbon sink capacity in the South Korea's coast (∼99%), while evidenced a lesser loss from the China's coast (∼31%). It was noteworthy that the progradation of tidal flats after the reclamation in China's coast significantly reduced the loss of carbon sequestration. According to the ecosystem services valuation for the Yellow Sea, a total loss was estimated as ∼8 billion USD yr^-1 with relatively high proportional loss (up to 25%) of climate regulating services (viz., carbon sequestration). Overall, huge losses in ecosystem services being provided by the Yellow Sea natural tidal flats need immediate action to prevent or at least alleviate accelerating ecological deteriorations. Finally, future conservative policy direction on coastal wetlands management has been proposed towards enhancement of marine ecosystem services.

Temporal partitioning and the effects of climate change on two ecologically similar desert bats

Climate change is predicted to create increasingly arid deserts with fewer and smaller water sources. Because free water is already limiting for arid-adapted animals, reductions in water likely will impact desert species and how they compete for this limited resource. Our objective was to examine how the size of water sources influenced competition between 2 ecologically similar bats, Parastrellus hesperus and Myotis californicus, in the American Southwest. Bats are a highly successful taxon in deserts, although many rely upon access to free water. We examined bat activity observationally over 35 different-sized water sources throughout the Mojave Desert in southwestern Utah, United States, and experimentally reduced the surface area of 2 water sources. Parastrellus hesperus and M. californicus typically occurred at the same water sources, but both species temporally partitioned their use of shared water sources regardless of the surface area of the water. Experimentally reducing surface area of water sources negatively affected drinking behaviors of both species and resulted in higher overall activity, but temporal partitioning still occurred. While loss of water may influence some competitive interactions, mechanisms such as temporal partitioning can potentially allow continued co-use of limited resources by competing species.

Harnessing positive species interactions as a tool against climate-driven loss of coastal biodiversity

Habitat-forming species sustain biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in harsh environments through the amelioration of physical stress. Nonetheless, their role in shaping patterns of species distribution under future climate scenarios is generally overlooked. Focusing on coastal systems, we assess how habitat-forming species can influence the ability of stress-sensitive species to exhibit plastic responses, adapt to novel environmental conditions, or track suitable climates. Here, we argue that habitat-former populations could be managed as a nature-based solution against climate-driven loss of biodiversity. Drawing from different ecological and biological disciplines, we identify a series of actions to sustain the resilience of marine habitat-forming species to climate change, as well as their effectiveness and reliability in rescuing stress-sensitive species from increasingly adverse environmental conditions.

Beyond Capricornia: Tropical Sea Slugs (Gastropoda, Heterobranchia) Extend Their Distributions into the Tasman Sea

There is increasing evidence of poleward migration of a broad range of taxa under the influence of a warming ocean. However, patchy research effort, the lack of pre-existing baseline data, and taxonomic uncertainty for some taxa means that unambiguous interpretation of observations is often difficult. Here, we propose that heterobranch sea slugs provide a useful target group for monitoring shifts in distribution. As many sea slugs are highly colourful, popular with underwater photographers and rock-pool ramblers, and found in accessible habitats, they provide an ideal target for citizen scientist programs, such as the Sea Slug Census. This maximises our ability to rapidly gain usable diversity and distributional data. Here, we review records of recent range extensions by tropical species into the subtropical and temperate waters of eastern Australia and document, for the first time in Australian waters, observations of three tropical species of sea slug as well as range extensions for a further six to various locations in the Tasman Sea.

Cracking the Code of Biodiversity Responses to Past Climate Change

How individual species and entire ecosystems will respond to future climate change are among the most pressing questions facing ecologists. Past biodiversity dynamics recorded in the paleoecological archives show a broad array of responses, yet significant knowledge gaps remain. In particular, the relative roles of evolutionary adaptation, phenotypic plasticity, and dispersal in promoting survival during times of climate change have yet to be clarified. Investigating the paleo-archives offers great opportunities to understand biodiversity responses to future climate change. In this review we discuss the mechanisms by which biodiversity responds to environmental change, and identify gaps of knowledge on the role of range shifts and tolerance. We also outline approaches at the intersection of paleoecology, genomics, experiments, and predictive models that will elucidate the processes by which species have survived past climatic changes and enhance predictions of future changes in biological diversity.

Phenotypic Plasticity Promotes Overwintering Survival in A Globally Invasive Crop Pest, Drosophila suzukii

Spotted wing drosophila, Drosophila suzukii Matsumura, is a major pest of small fruit worldwide in temperate and subtropical growing regions. In Northern climates, D. suzukii likely overwinters locally under leaf litter and snow pack, but our understanding of the factors affecting thermal susceptibility is limited. While previous investigations of thermal susceptibility in this species have employed conventional static acclimation protocols, we aimed to determine whether gradual cooling, or dynamic acclimation, may extend the limits of known thermal tolerance by more closely approximating naturally occurring shifts in temperature. First, we assessed survival among adult and pupal D. suzukii using static acclimation. Then, we re-assessed survival using a novel dynamic acclimation method. We found that while static acclimation was sufficient to induce cold tolerance, dynamic acclimation significantly improved survival at temperatures as low as -7.5 °C. Following static acclimation, the lower lethal limit of adult D. suzukii was -1.1 °C in winter morphotype (WM) adults compared to 1.7 °C in non-acclimated summer morphotype (SM) adults. Dynamic acclimation reduced the lower limit to -5 °C in SM flies. At the end of our study 50% of WM flies survived 72 h at -7.5 °C. Below 0 °C pupal survival declined significantly regardless of acclimation procedure. However, pupal acclimation improved survival outcomes significantly compared to non-acclimated pupae, suggesting that while juvenile diapause is unlikely, cold hardening likely benefits those flies which may develop into the overwintering WM population. These data suggest that the degree of cold hardening is proportional to the thermal environment, a finding previously unrecognized in this species. Given the economic impact of this pest, these data may have important implications for offseason population monitoring and management. We discuss how phenotypic plasticity may drive geographical range expansion, and the impact of climate change on the spread of this species.

Ocean currents and herbivory drive macroalgae-to-coral community shift under climate warming

Coral and macroalgal communities are threatened by global stressors. However, recently reported community shifts from temperate macroalgae to tropical corals offer conservation potential for corals at the expense of macroalgae under climate warming. Although such community shifts are expanding geographically, our understanding of the driving processes is still limited. Here, we reconstruct long-term climate-driven range shifts in 45 species of macroalgae, corals, and herbivorous fishes from over 60 years of records (mainly 1950-2015), stretching across 3,000 km of the Japanese archipelago from tropical to subarctic zones. Based on a revised coastal version of climate velocity trajectories, we found that prediction models combining the effects of climate and ocean currents consistently explained observed community shifts significantly better than those relying on climate alone. Corals and herbivorous fishes performed better at exploiting opportunities offered by this interaction. The contrasting range dynamics for these taxa suggest that ocean warming is promoting macroalgal-to-coral shifts both directly by increased competition from the expansion of tropical corals into the contracting temperate macroalgae, and indirectly via deforestation by the expansion of tropical herbivorous fish. Beyond individual species' effects, our results provide evidence on the important role that the interaction between climate warming and external forces conditioning the dispersal of organisms, such as ocean currents, can have in shaping community-level responses, with concomitant changes to ecosystem structure and functioning. Furthermore, we found that community shifts from macroalgae to corals might accelerate with future climate warming, highlighting the complexity of managing these evolving communities under future climate change.

Earth BioGenome Project: Sequencing life for the future of life

Increasing our understanding of Earth's biodiversity and responsibly stewarding its resources are among the most crucial scientific and social challenges of the new millennium. These challenges require fundamental new knowledge of the organization, evolution, functions, and interactions among millions of the planet's organisms. Herein, we present a perspective on the Earth BioGenome Project (EBP), a moonshot for biology that aims to sequence, catalog, and characterize the genomes of all of Earth's eukaryotic biodiversity over a period of 10 years. The outcomes of the EBP will inform a broad range of major issues facing humanity, such as the impact of climate change on biodiversity, the conservation of endangered species and ecosystems, and the preservation and enhancement of ecosystem services. We describe hurdles that the project faces, including data-sharing policies that ensure a permanent, freely available resource for future scientific discovery while respecting access and benefit sharing guidelines of the Nagoya Protocol. We also describe scientific and organizational challenges in executing such an ambitious project, and the structure proposed to achieve the project's goals. The far-reaching potential benefits of creating an open digital repository of genomic information for life on Earth can be realized only by a coordinated international effort.

Sustainability of Forest Cover under Climate Change on the Temperate-Continental Xeric Limits

Climate change particularly threatens the xeric limits of temperate-continental forests. In Hungary, annual temperatures have increased by 1.2 °C–1.8 °C in the last 30 years and the frequency of extreme droughts has grown. With the aim to gain stand-level prospects of sustainability, we have used local forest site variables to identify and project effects of recent and expected changes of climate. We have used a climatic descriptor (FAI index) to compare trends estimated from forest datasets with climatological projections; this is likely for the first time such a comparison has been made. Four independent approaches confirmed the near-linear decline of growth and vitality with increasing hot droughts in summer, using sessile oak as model species. The correlation between droughts and the expansion of pest and disease damages was also found to be significant. Projections of expected changes of main site factors predict a dramatic rise of future drought frequency and, consequently, a substantial shift of forest climate classes, especially at low elevation. Excess water-dependent lowland forests may lose supply from groundwater, which may change vegetation cover and soil development processes. The overall change of site conditions not only causes economic losses, but also challenges long-term sustainability of forest cover at the xeric limits.

Expected impacts of climate change threaten the anuran diversity in the Brazilian hotspots

We performed Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) to generate climatically suitable areas for anurans in the Brazilian hotspots, the Atlantic Forest (AF), and Cerrado (CER), considering the baseline and future climate change scenarios, to evaluate the differences in the alpha and beta diversity metrics across time. We surveyed anuran occurrence records and generated ENMs for 350 and 155 species in the AF and CER. The final predictive maps for the baseline, 2050, and 2070 climate scenarios, based on an ensemble approach, were used to estimate the alpha (local species richness) and beta diversity metrics (local contribution to beta diversity index and its decomposition into replacement and nestedness components) in each ~50 × 50 km grid cell of the hotspots. Climate change is not expected to drastically change the distribution of the anuran richness gradients, but to negatively impact their whole extensions (i.e., cause species losses throughout the hotspots), except the northeastern CER that is expected to gain in species richness. Areas having high beta diversity are expected to decrease in northeastern CER, whereas an increase is expected in southeastern/southwestern CER under climate change. High beta diversity areas are expected to remain in the same AF locations as the prediction of the baseline climate, but the predominance of species loss under climate change is expected to increase the nestedness component in the hotspot. These results suggest that the lack of similar climatically suitable areas for most species will be the main challenge that species will face in the future. Finally, the application of the present framework to a wide range of taxa is an important step for the conservation of threatened biomes.

Taxonomic and functional diversity change is scale dependent

Estimates of recent biodiversity change remain inconsistent, debated, and infrequently assessed for their functional implications. Here, we report that spatial scale and type of biodiversity measurement influence evidence of temporal biodiversity change. We show a pervasive scale dependence of temporal trends in taxonomic (TD) and functional (FD) diversity for an ~50-year record of avian assemblages from North American Breeding Bird Survey and a record of global extinctions. Average TD and FD increased at all but the global scale. Change in TD exceeded change in FD toward large scales, signaling functional resilience. Assemblage temporal dissimilarity and turnover (replacement of species or functions) declined, while nestedness (tendency of assemblages to be subsets of one another) increased with scale. Patterns of FD change varied strongly among diet and foraging guilds. We suggest that monitoring, policy, and conservation require a scale-explicit framework to account for the pervasive effect that scale has on perceived biodiversity change.

Predicted extinction of unique genetic diversity in marine forests of Cystoseira spp

Climate change is inducing shifts in species ranges across the globe. These can affect the genetic pools of species, including loss of genetic variability and evolutionary potential. In particular, geographically enclosed ecosystems, like the Mediterranean Sea, have a higher risk of suffering species loss and genetic erosion due to barriers to further range shifts and to dispersal. In this study, we address these questions for three habitat-forming seaweed species, Cystoseira tamariscifolia, C. amentacea and C. compressa, throughout their entire ranges in the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions. We aim to 1) describe their population genetic structure and diversity, 2) model the present and predict the future distribution and 3) assess the consequences of predicted future range shifts for their population genetic structure, according to two contrasting future climate change scenarios. A net loss of suitable areas was predicted in both climatic scenarios across the range of distribution of the three species. This loss was particularly severe for C. amentacea in the Mediterranean Sea (less 90% in the most extreme climatic scenario), suggesting that the species could become potentially at extinction risk. For all species, genetic data showed very differentiated populations, indicating low inter-population connectivity, and high and distinct genetic diversity in areas that were predicted to become lost, causing erosion of unique evolutionary lineages. Our results indicated that the Mediterranean Sea is the most threatened region, where future suitable Cystoseira habitats will become more limited. This is likely to have wider ecosystem impacts as there is a lack of species with the same ecological niche and functional role in the Mediterranean. The projected accelerated loss of already fragmented and disturbed populations and the long-term genetic effects highlight the urge for local scale management strategies that sustain the capacity of these habitat-forming species to persist despite climatic impacts while waiting for global emission reductions.