Retention and mortality on antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: collaborative analyses of HIV treatment programmes

Excess mortality associated with mental illness in people living with HIV in Cape Town, South Africa: a cohort study using linked electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Mental disorders can adversely affect HIV treatment outcomes and survival. Data are scarce on premature deaths in people with mental disorders in HIV-positive populations, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. In this study, we quantified excess mortality associated with mental disorders in HIV-positive people in South Africa, adjusting for HIV treatment outcomes.

METHODS

For this cohort study, we analysed routinely collected data on HIV-positive adults receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Cape Town, South Africa between Jan 1, 2004, to Dec 31, 2017. Data from three ART programmes were linked with routine medical records on mental health treatment from Jan 1, 2010, to Dec 31, 2017, and mortality surveillance data from the South African National Population Register up to Dec 31, 2017. People living with HIV aged 15 years or older who initiated ART at a programme site were eligible for analysis. We followed up patients from ART initiation or Jan 1, 2010, whichever occurred later, to transfer, death, or Dec 31, 2017. Patients were considered as having a history of mental illness if they had ever received psychiatric medication or been hospitalised for a mental disorder. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) with 95% CIs for associations between history of mental illness, mortality, and HIV treatment outcomes (retention in care with viral load suppression [VLS; viral load <1000 copies per mL], retention in care with non-suppressed viral load [NVL; viral load ≥1000 copies per mL], and loss to follow-up [LTFU; >180 days late for a clinic visit at closure of the database]) using Cox proportional hazard regression and multistate models.

RESULTS

58 664 patients were followed up for a median of 4·3 years (IQR 2·1-6·4), 2927 (5·0%) of whom had a history of mental illness. After adjustment for age, sex, treatment programme, and year of ART initiation, history of mental illness was associated with increased risk of mortality from all causes (aHR 2·98 [95% CI 2·69-3·30]), natural causes (3·00 [2·69-3·36]), and unnatural causes (2·10 [1·27-3·49]), compared with no history of mental illness. Risk of all-cause mortality in people with a history of mental illness remained increased in multivariable analysis adjusted for age, sex, treatment programme, year of ART initiation, CD4 count and WHO clinical stage at ART initiation, retention in HIV care with or without VLS, and LTFU (2·73 [2·46-3·02]). In our multistate model, adjusted for age, sex, year of ART initiation, cumulative time with NVL, and WHO clinical stage and CD4 cell count at ART initiation, rates of excess all-cause mortality in people with history of mental illness were greatest in patients retained in care with VLS (aHR 3·43 [95% CI 2·83-4·15]), followed by patients retained in care with NVL (2·74 [2·32-3·24]), and smallest in those LTFU (2·12 [1·78-2·53]). History of mental illness was also associated with increased risk of HIV viral rebound (transitioning from VLS to NVL; 1·50 [1·32-1·69]) and LTFU in people with VLS (1·19 [1·06-1·34]).

INTERPRETATION

Mental illness was associated with substantial excess mortality in HIV-positive adults in Cape Town. Excess mortality among people with a history of mental illness occurred independently of HIV treatment success. Interventions to reduce excess mortality should address the complex physical and mental health-care needs of people living with HIV and mental illness.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health, Swiss National Science Foundation, South African Medical Research Council.

Factors Affecting the Implementation of Electronic Antiretroviral Therapy Adherence Monitoring and Associated Interventions for Routine HIV Care in Uganda: Qualitative Study

Background

High, sustained adherence to HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) is critical for achieving viral suppression, which in turn leads to important individual health benefits and reduced secondary viral transmission. Electronic adherence monitors record a date-and-time stamp with each opening as a proxy for pill-taking behavior. These monitors can be combined with interventions (eg, data-informed adherence counseling, SMS-based adherence support, and/or alarms) and have been shown to improve adherence in multiple settings. Their use, however, has largely been limited to the research context.

Objective

The goal of the research was to use the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) to understand factors relevant for implementing a low-cost electronic adherence monitor and associated interventions for routine HIV clinical care in Uganda.

Methods

We conducted in-depth qualitative interviews with health care administrators, clinicians, and ART clients about likes and dislikes of the features and functions of electronic adherence monitors and associated interventions, their potential to influence HIV care, suggestions on how to measure their value, and recommendations for their use in routine care. We used an inductive, content analysis approach to understand participant perspectives, identifying aspects of CFIR most relevant to technology implementation in this setting.

Results

We interviewed 34 health care administrators/clinicians and 15 ART clients. Participants largely saw the monitors and associated interventions as favorable and beneficial for supporting adherence and improving clinical outcomes through efficient, differentiated care. Relevant outside factors included structural determinants of health, international norms around supporting adherence, and limited funding that necessitates careful assessment of costs and benefits. Within the clinic, the adherence data were felt likely to improve the quality of counseling and thereby morale, as well as increase the efficiency of care delivery. Existing infrastructure and care expenditures and the need for proper training were other noted considerations. At the individual level, the desire for good health and a welcomed pressure to adhere favored uptake of the monitors, although some participants were concerned with clients not using the monitors as planned and the influence of poverty, stigma, and need for privacy. Finally, participants felt that decisions around the implementation process would have to come from the Ministry of Health and other funders and would be influenced by sustainability of the technology and the target population for its use. Coordination across the health care system would be important for implementation.

Conclusions

Low-cost electronic adherence monitoring combined with data-informed counseling, SMS-based support, and/or alarms have potential for use in routine HIV care in Uganda. Key metrics of successful implementation will include their impact on efficiency of care delivery and clinical outcomes with careful attention paid to factors such as stigma and cost. Further theory-driven implementation science efforts will be needed to move promising technology from research into clinical care.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03825952; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03825952

Lessons for test and treat in an antiretroviral programme after decentralisation in Uganda: a retrospective analysis of outcomes in public healthcare facilities within the Lablite project

BACKGROUND

We describe the decentralisation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) alongside Option B+ roll-out in public healthcare facilities in the Lablite project in Uganda. Lessons learned will inform programmes now implementing universal test and treat (UTT).

METHODS

Routine data were retrospectively extracted from ART registers between October 2012 and March 2015 for all adults and children initiating ART at two primary care facilities (spokes) and their corresponding district hospitals (hubs) in northern and central Uganda. We describe ART initiation over time and retention and use of Cox models to explore risk factors for attrition due to mortality and loss to follow-up. Results from tracing of patients lost to follow-up were used to correct retention estimates.

RESULTS

Of 2100 ART initiations, 1125 were in the north, including 944 (84%) at the hub and 181 (16%) at the spokes; children comprised 95 (10%) initiations at the hubs and 14 (8%) at the spokes. Corresponding numbers were 642 (66%) at the hub and 333 (34%) at the spokes in the central region (77 [12%] and 22 [7%], respectively, in children). Children <3 y of age comprised the minority of initiations in children at all sites. Twenty-three percent of adult ART initiations at the north hub were Option B+ compared with 45% at the spokes (25% and 65%, respectively, in the central region). Proportions retained in care in the north hub at 6 and 12 mo were 92% (95% CI 90 to 93) and 89% (895% CI 7 to 91), respectively. Corresponding corrected estimates in the north spokes were 87% (95% CI 78 to 93) and 82% (95% CI 72 to 89), respectively. In the central hub, corrected estimates were 84% (95% CI 80 to 87) and 78% (95% CI 74 to 82), and were 89% (95% CI 77.9 to 95.1) and 83% (95% CI 64.1 to 92.9) at the spokes, respectively. Among adults newly initiating ART, being older was independently associated with a lower risk of attrition (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.93 per 5 y [95% CI 0.88 to 0.97]). Other independent risk factors included initiating with a tenofovir-based regimen vs zidovudine (aHR 0.60 [95% CI 0.46 to 0.77]), year of ART initiation (2013 aHR 1.55 [95% CI 1.21 to 1.97], ≥2014 aHR 1.41 [95% CI 1.06 to 1.87]) vs 2012, hub vs spoke (aHR 0.35 [95% CI 0.29 to 0.43]) and central vs north (aHR 2.28 [95% CI 1.86 to 2.81]). Independently, patient type was associated with retention.

CONCLUSIONS

After ART decentralisation, people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) were willing to initiate ART in rural primary care facilities. Retention on ART was variable across facilities and attrition was higher among some groups, including younger adults and women initiating ART during pregnancy/breastfeeding. Interventions to support these groups are required to optimise benefits of expanded access to HIV services under UTT.

Low mortality rates at two years in HIV-infected individuals undergoing systematic tuberculosis testing with rapid assays at initiation of antiretroviral treatment in Mozambique

BACKGROUND

Few studies have evaluated the mortality rate in individuals with HIV initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART), undergoing screening with combined or repeated rapid tests for tuberculosis (TB).

METHODS

All individuals with HIV starting ART, irrespective of the presence of TB-related symptoms, received two consecutive Xpert tests plus a rapid test for the detection of mycobacterial lipoarabinomannan in urine (LAM). Mortality was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier analysis using the log-rank test in univariate analyses and Cox regression models with time-dependent covariates in multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

Among 972 individuals screened with combined tests, 98 (10.1%) tested positive for TB with Xpert, LAM, or both. At the end of the study, 780 (80.2%) had completed 2 years of follow-up, 39 (4.0%) had died, and 153 (15.7%) were lost to follow-up. In the multivariate analyses, the factors significantly associated with mortality were missed ART (hazard ratio (HR) 7.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.33-21.35), symptomatic HIV disease (WHO-HIV stage >1) (HR 3.31, 95% CI 1.28-8.54), and low CD4 count (<200/mm³) (HR 2.72, 95% CI 1.21-6.13), with no significant effect of TB status. In the subgroup of the 98 TB-positive individuals, only missed ART (HR 4.12, 95% CI 1.03-16.46) and missed anti-TB treatment (HR 9.25, 95% CI 2.65-32.28) were significantly associated with mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

A low mortality rate was observed among individuals with HIV undergoing systematic testing for TB at initiation of ART. After adjusting for confounders, mortality was significantly associated with missed ART, advanced disease, and missed anti-TB treatment. These findings reinforce the need to promote early diagnosis of HIV and the adoption of screening strategies for TB that prevent presentation with severe disease.

Estimating retention in HIV care accounting for clinic transfers using electronic medical records: evidence from a large antiretroviral treatment programme in the Western Cape, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Estimates of retention in antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes may be biased if patients who transfer to healthcare clinics are misclassified as lost to follow-up (LTFU) at their original clinic. In a large cohort, we estimated retention in care accounting for patient transfers using medical records.

METHODS

Using linked electronic medical records, we followed adults living with HIV (PLWH) in Cape Town, South Africa from ART initiation (2012-2016) through database closure at 36 months or 30 June 2016, whichever came first. Retention was defined as alive and with a healthcare visit in the 180 days between database closure and administrative censoring on 31 December 2016. Participants who died or did not have a healthcare visit in > 180 days were censored at their last healthcare visit. We estimated the cumulative incidence of retention using Kaplan-Meier methods considering (i) only records from a participant's ART initiation clinic (not accounting for transfers) and (ii) all records (accounting for transfers), over time and by gender. We estimated risk differences and bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals to quantify misclassification in retention estimates due to patient transfers.

RESULTS

We included 3406 PLWH initiating ART. Retention through 36 months on ART rose from 45.4% (95% CI 43.6%, 47.2%) to 54.3% (95% CI 52.4%, 56.1%) after accounting for patient transfers. Overall, 8.9% (95% CI 8.1%, 9.7%) of participants were misclassified as LTFU due to patient transfers.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient transfers can appreciably bias estimates of retention in HIV care. Electronic medical records can help quantify patient transfers and improve retention estimates.

Dual Analysis of Loss to Follow-up for Perinatally HIV-Infected Adolescents Receiving Combination Antiretroviral Therapy in Asia

BACKGROUND

Perinatally HIV-infected adolescents (PHIVA) are an expanding population vulnerable to loss to follow-up (LTFU). Understanding the epidemiology and factors for LTFU is complicated by varying LTFU definitions.

SETTING

Asian regional cohort incorporating 16 pediatric HIV services across 6 countries.

METHODS

Data from PHIVA (aged 10-19 years) who received combination antiretroviral therapy 2007-2016 were used to analyze LTFU through (1) an International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) method that determined LTFU as >90 days late for an estimated next scheduled appointment without returning to care and (2) the absence of patient-level data for >365 days before the last data transfer from clinic sites. Descriptive analyses and competing-risk survival and regression analyses were used to evaluate LTFU epidemiology and associated factors when analyzed using each method.

RESULTS

Of 3509 included PHIVA, 275 (7.8%) met IeDEA and 149 (4.3%) met 365-day absence LTFU criteria. Cumulative incidence of LTFU was 19.9% and 11.8% using IeDEA and 365-day absence criteria, respectively. Risk factors for LTFU across both criteria included the following: age at combination antiretroviral therapy initiation <5 years compared with age ≥5 years, rural clinic settings compared with urban clinic settings, and high viral loads compared with undetectable viral loads. Age 10-14 years compared with age 15-19 years was another risk factor identified using 365-day absence criteria but not IeDEA LTFU criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 12% and 20% of PHIVA were determined LTFU with treatment fatigue and rural treatment settings consistent risk factors. Better tracking of adolescents is required to provide a definitive understanding of LTFU and optimize evidence-based models of care.

International epidemiology databases to evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) in sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2019

PURPOSE

The objectives of the International epidemiology databases to evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) are to (i) evaluate the delivery of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in children, adolescents and adults in sub-Saharan Africa, (ii) to describe ART regimen effectiveness, durability and tolerability, (iii) to examine HIV-related comorbidities and coinfections and (iv) to examine the pregnancy-related and HIV-related outcomes of women on ART and their infants exposed to HIV or ART in utero or via breast milk.

PARTICIPANTS

IeDEA is organised in four regions (Central, East, Southern and West Africa), with 240 treatment and care sites, six data centres at African, European and US universities, and almost 1.4 million children, adolescents and adult people living with HIV (PLWHIV) enrolled.

FINDINGS TO DATE

The data include socio-demographic characteristics, clinical outcomes, opportunistic events, treatment regimens, clinic visits and laboratory measurements. They have been used to analyse outcomes in PLWHIV-1 or PLWHIV-2 who initiate ART, including determinants of mortality, of switching to second-line and third-line ART, drug resistance, loss to follow-up and the immunological and virological response to different ART regimens. Programme-level estimates of mortality have been corrected for loss to follow-up. We examined the impact of coinfection with hepatitis B and C, and the epidemiology of different cancers and of (multidrug resistant) tuberculosis, renal disease and of mental illness. The adoption of 'Treat All', making ART available to all PLWHIV regardless of CD4+ cell count or clinical stage was another important research topic.

FUTURE PLANS

IeDEA has formulated several research priorities for the 'Treat All' era in sub-Saharan Africa. It recently obtained funding to set up sentinel sites where additional data are prospectively collected on cardiometabolic risks factors as well as mental health and liver diseases, and is planning to create a drug resistance database.

Integrated Hypertension and HIV Care Cascades in an HIV Treatment Program in Eastern Uganda: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Persons living with HIV (PLHIV) are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Integration of services for hypertension (HTN), the primary cardiovascular disease risk factor, into HIV care programs is recommended in Uganda, though, uptake has been limited. We sought to compare the care cascades for HTN and HIV within an HIV program in Eastern Uganda.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all PLHIV enrolled in 3 HIV clinics between 2014 and 2017. We determined the proportion of patients in the following cascade steps over 12 months: Screened, Diagnosed, Initiated on treatment, Retained, Monitored, and Controlled. Cascades were analyzed using descriptive statistics and compared using χ and t tests.

RESULTS

Of 1649 enrolled patients, 98.5% were initiated on HIV treatment, of whom 70.7% were retained in care, 100% had viral load monitoring, and 90.3% achieved control (viral suppression). Four hundred fifty-six (27.7%) participants were screened for HTN, of whom 46.9% were diagnosed, 88.1% were initiated on treatment, 57.3% were retained in care, 82.7% were monitored, and 24.3% achieved blood pressure control. There were no differences in any HIV cascade step between participants with HIV alone and those with both conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

The HIV care cascade approached global targets, whereas the parallel HTN care cascade demonstrated notable quality gaps. Management of HTN within this cohort did not negatively impact HIV care. Our findings suggest that models of integration should focus on screening PLHIV for HTN and retention and control of those diagnosed to fully leverage the successes of HIV programs.

Outcomes of second-line antiretroviral therapy among children living with HIV: a global cohort analysis

INTRODUCTION

Limited data describe outcomes on second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) among children globally. Our objective was to contribute data on outcomes among children living with HIV after initiation of second-line ART in the context of routine care within a large global cohort collaboration.

METHODS

Patient-level data from 1993 through 2015 from 11 paediatric HIV cohorts were pooled. Characteristics at switch and through two years of follow-up were summarized for children who switched to second-line ART after starting a standard first-line regimen in North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia, Southern Africa (South Africa & Botswana) and the rest of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Cumulative incidences of mortality and loss to follow-up (LTFU) were estimated using a competing risks framework.

RESULTS

Of the 85,389 children on first-line ART, 3,555 (4%) switched to second-line after a median of 2.8 years on ART (IQR: 1.6, 4.7); 69% were from Southern Africa or SSA and 86% of second-line regimens were protease inhibitor-based. At switch, median age was 8.4 years and 50% had a prior AIDS diagnosis. Median follow-up after switch to second-line ranged from 1.8 years in SSA to 5.3 years in North America. Median CD4 counts at switch to second-line ranged from 235 cells/mm3 in SSA to 828 cells/mm3 in North America. Improvements in CD4 counts were observed over two years of follow-up, particularly in regions with lower CD4 counts at second-line switch. Improvements in weight-for-age z-scores were not observed during follow-up. Cumulative incidence of LTFU at two years was <5% in all regions except SSA (7.1%) and Southern Africa (7.4%). Risk of mortality was <3% at two years of follow-up in all regions, except Latin America (4.9%) and SSA (5.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Children switched to second-line ART experience CD4 count increases as well as low to moderate rates of LTFU and mortality within two years after switch. Severe immune deficiency at time of switch in some settings suggests need for improved recognition and management of treatment failure in children.

Extrapulmonary tuberculosis in HIV-infected patients in rural Tanzania: The prospective Kilombero and Ulanga antiretroviral cohort

BACKGROUND

In sub-Saharan Africa, diagnosis and management of extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) in people living with HIV (PLHIV) remains a major challenge. This study aimed to characterize the epidemiology and risk factors for poor outcome of extrapulmonary tuberculosis in people living with HIV (PLHIV) in a rural setting in Tanzania.

METHODS

We included PLHIV >18 years of age enrolled into the Kilombero and Ulanga antiretroviral cohort (KIULARCO) from 2013 to 2017. We assessed the diagnosis of tuberculosis by integrating prospectively collected clinical and microbiological data. We calculated prevalence- and incidence rates and used Cox regression analysis to evaluate the association of risk factors in extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) with a combined endpoint of lost to follow-up (LTFU) and death.

RESULTS

We included 3,129 subjects (64.5% female) with a median age of 38 years (interquartile range [IQR] 31-46) and a median CD4+ cell count of 229/μl (IQR 94-421) at baseline. During the median follow-up of 1.25 years (IQR 0.46-2.85), 574 (18.4%) subjects were diagnosed with tuberculosis, whereof 175 (30.5%) had an extrapulmonary manifestation. Microbiological evidence by Acid-Fast-Bacillus stain (AFB-stain) or Xpert® MTB/RIF was present in 178/483 (36.9%) patients with pulmonary and in 28/175 (16.0%) of patients with extrapulmonary manifestations, respectively. Incidence density rates for pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB and EPTB were 17.9/1000person-years (py) (95% CI 14.2-22.6) and 5.8/1000 py (95% CI 4.0-8.5), respectively. The combined endpoint of death and LTFU was observed in 1058 (33.8%) patients, most frequently in the subgroup of EPTB (47.2%). Patients with EPTB had a higher rate of the composite outcome of death/LTFU after TB diagnosis than with PTB [HR 1.63, (1.14-2.31); p = 0.006]. The adjusted hazard ratios [HR (95% CI)] for death/LTFU in EPTB patients were significantly increased for patients aged >45 years [HR 1.95, (1.15-3.3); p = 0.013], whereas ART use was protective [HR 0.15, (0.08-0.27); p <0.001].

CONCLUSIONS

Extrapulmonary tuberculosis was a frequent manifestation in this cohort of PLHIV. The diagnosis of EPTB in the absence of histopathology and mycobacterial culture remains challenging even with availability of Xpert® MTB/RIF. Patients with EPTB had increased rates of mortality and LTFU despite early recognition of the disease after enrollment.

Effect of tuberculosis screening and retention interventions on early antiretroviral therapy mortality in Botswana: a stepped-wedge cluster randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Undiagnosed tuberculosis (TB) remains the most common cause of HIV-related mortality. Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) is being rolled out globally to improve TB diagnostic capacity. However, previous Xpert impact trials have reported that health system weaknesses blunted impact of this improved diagnostic tool. During phased Xpert rollout in Botswana, we evaluated the impact of a package of interventions comprising (1) additional support for intensified TB case finding (ICF), (2) active tracing for patients missing clinic appointments to support retention, and (3) Xpert replacing sputum-smear microscopy, on early (6-month) antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality.

METHODS

At 22 clinics, ART enrollees > 12 years old were eligible for inclusion in three phases: a retrospective standard of care (SOC), prospective enhanced care (EC), and prospective EC plus Xpert (EC+X) phase. EC and EC+X phases were implemented as a stepped-wedge trial. Participants in the EC phase received SOC plus components 1 (strengthened ICF) and 2 (active tracing) of the intervention package, and participants in the EC+X phase received SOC plus all three intervention package components. Primary and secondary objectives were to compare all-cause 6-month ART mortality between SOC and EC+X and between EC and EC+X phases, respectively. We used adjusted analyses, appropriate for study design, to control for baseline differences in individual-level factors and intra-facility correlation.

RESULTS

We enrolled 14,963 eligible patients: 8980 in SOC, 1768 in EC, and 4215 in EC+X phases. Median age of ART enrollees was 35 and 64% were female. Median CD4 cell count was lower in SOC than subsequent phases (184/μL in SOC, 246/μL in EC, and 241/μL in EC+X). By 6 months of ART, 461 (5.3%) of SOC, 54 (3.2%) of EC, and 121 (3.0%) of EC+X enrollees had died. Compared with SOC, 6-month mortality was lower in the EC+X phase (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.97, p = 0.029). Compared with EC enrollees, 6-month mortality was similar among EC+X enrollees.

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions to strengthen ICF and retention were associated with lower early ART mortality. This new evidence highlights the need to strengthen ICF and retention in many similar settings. Similar to other trials, no additional mortality benefit of replacing sputum-smear microscopy with Xpert was observed.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Retrospectively registered: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02538952).

Improving Monitoring of Engagement in HIV Care for Women in Option B+: A Pilot Test of Biometric Fingerprint Scanning in Lilongwe, Malawi

Sustained engagement in HIV care is critical to the success of Option B+ for HIV-infected pregnant women. However, monitoring women's engagement in care across clinics and over time is challenging due to migration and clinic transfers. Improved strategies to identify and monitor women's engagement in HIV care across a network of clinics are needed, but have not been pilot tested. We evaluated the feasibility and acceptability of biometric fingerprint scanning to identify women and monitor HIV visit attendance among women in Option B+. Over a 3-month period, we enrolled HIV-infected pregnant women receiving care at two antenatal clinics in Lilongwe, Malawi and monitored their engagement in care using biometric fingerprint scanning and the standard-of-care electronic medical record (EMR) monitoring system. Biometric data was collected by trained research assistants, who uploaded and synced data across study sites daily using wireless internet. We collected data weekly on the biometric scanner performance, reliability, and usability. We assessed the feasibility and acceptability of using biometric fingerprint scanning to record HIV visits during exit interviews with a sample of participants and healthcare workers and by comparing visit concordance between the biometric fingerprint scanning and EMR systems. We enrolled 314 HIV-infected pregnant women and 51 HCWs (n = 365 total participants). The majority of participants felt the biometric fingerprint scanning system was easy to use (64%), required no additional assistance (69%) and met their expectations (76%). No major issues with data security, privacy, or scanner functionality were reported by HIV-infected women or healthcare workers. Of the 542 HIV visits captured during the study period among women in Option B+, 80% were recorded in the biometric fingerprint system versus 51% in the EMR system (PR 1.57, 95% CI 1.43, 1.72, p-value < 0.05). Among HIV-infected pregnant women engaged in HIV care, biometric fingerprint scanning is a feasible and acceptable way to monitor HIV visits and may improve the ability to monitor women's engagement in HIV care over time and across clinics. Biometric fingerprint scanning should be scaled-up and evaluated as an implementation strategy to support sustained engagement in HIV care for women during the perinatal period.

Global variations in mortality in adults after initiating antiretroviral treatment: an updated analysis of the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS cohort collaboration

BACKGROUND

UNAIDS models use data from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) collaboration in setting assumptions about mortality rates after antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation. This study aims to update these assumptions with new data, to quantify the extent of regional variation in ART mortality and to assess trends in ART mortality.

METHODS

Adult ART patients from Africa, Asia and the Americas were included if they had a known date of ART initiation during 2001-2017 and a baseline CD4 cell count. In cohorts that relied only on passive follow-up (no patient tracing or linkage to vital registration systems), mortality outcomes were imputed in patients lost to follow-up based on a meta-analysis of tracing study data. Poisson regression models were fitted to the mortality data.

RESULTS

464 048 ART patients were included. In multivariable analysis, mortality rates were lowest in Asia and highest in Africa, with no significant differences between African regions. Adjusted mortality rates varied significantly between programmes within regions. Mortality rates in the first 12 months after ART initiation were significantly higher during 2001-2006 than during 2010-2014, although the difference was more substantial in Asia and the Americas [adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) 1.43, 95% CI: 1.22-1.66] than in Africa (aIRR 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.11).

CONCLUSION

There is substantial variation in ART mortality between and within regions, even after controlling for differences in mortality by age, sex, baseline CD4 category and calendar period. ART mortality rates have declined substantially over time, although declines have been slower in Africa.

Cost-effectiveness of integrating postpartum antiretroviral therapy and infant care into maternal & child health services in South Africa

Background

Poor engagement in postpartum maternal HIV care is a challenge worldwide and contributes to adverse maternal outcomes and vertical transmission. Our objective was to project the clinical and economic impact of integrated postpartum maternal antiretroviral therapy (ART) and pediatric care in South Africa.

Methods

Using the CEPAC computer simulation models, parameterized with data from the Maternal and Child Health–Antiretroviral Therapy (MCH-ART) randomized controlled trial, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of integrated postpartum care for women initiating ART in pregnancy and their children. We compared two strategies: 1) standard of care (SOC) referral to local clinics after delivery for separate standard ART services for women and pediatric care for infants, and 2) the MCH-ART intervention (MCH-ART) of co-located maternal/pediatric care integrated in Maternal and Child Health (MCH) services throughout breastfeeding. Trial-derived inputs included: 12-month maternal retention in care and virologic suppression (SOC: 49%, MCH-ART: 67%), breastfeeding duration (SOC: 6 months, MCH-ART: 8 months), and postpartum healthcare costs for mother-infant pairs (SOC: $50, MCH-ART: $69). Outcomes included pediatric HIV infections, maternal and infant life expectancy (LE), lifetime HIV-related per-person costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs; ICER <US$903/YLS considered “cost-effective”).

Results

Compared to SOC, MCH-ART increased maternal LE (SOC: 25.26 years, MCH-ART: 26.20 years) and lifetime costs (SOC: $9,912, MCH-ART: $10,207; discounted). Projected pediatric outcomes for all HIV-exposed children were similar between arms, although undiscounted LE for HIV-infected children was shorter in SOC (SOC: 23.13 years, MCH-ART: 23.40 years). Combining discounted maternal and pediatric outcomes, the ICER was $599/YLS.

Conclusion

Co-located maternal HIV and pediatric care, integrated in MCH services throughout breastfeeding, is a cost-effective strategy to improve maternal and pediatric outcomes and should be implemented in South Africa.

Long-term retention on antiretroviral therapy among infants, children, adolescents and adults in Malawi: A cohort study

Objectives

We examine long-term retention of adults, adolescents and children on antiretroviral therapy under different HIV treatment guidelines in Malawi.

Design

Prospective cohort study.

Setting and participants

Adults and children starting ART between 2005 and 2015 in 21 health facilities in southern Malawi.

Methods

We used survival analysis to assess retention at clinic level, Cox regression to examine risk factors for loss to follow up, and competing risk analysis to assess long-term outcomes of people on antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Results

We included 132,274 individuals in our analysis, totalling 270,256 person years of follow up (PYFU; median per patient 1.3, interquartile range (IQR) 0.26–3.1), 62% were female and the median age was 32 years. Retention on ART was lower in the first year on ART compared to subsequent years for all guideline periods and age groups. Infants (0–3 years), adolescents and young adults (15–24 years) were at highest risk of LTFU. Comparing the different calendar periods of ART initiation we found that retention improved initially, but remained stable thereafter.

Conclusion

Even though the number of patients and the burden on health care system increased substantially during the study period of rapid ART expansion, retention on ART improved in the early years of ART provision, but gains in retention were not maintained over 5 years on ART. Reducing high attrition in the first year of ART should remain a priority for ART programs, and so should addressing poor retention among adolescents, young adults and men.

A Case Study of an Effective and Sustainable Antiretroviral Therapy Program in Rural South Africa

The delivery of high-quality HIV care in rural settings is a global challenge. Despite the successful expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa, viral load (VL) monitoring and ART adherence are poor, especially in rural communities. This article describes a case study of an ART program in the deeply rural Eastern Cape of South Africa. The Zithulele ART Program initiated five innovations over time: (1) establishing district hospital as the logistical hub for all ART care in a rural district, (2) primary care clinic delivery of prepackaged ART and chronic medications for people living with HIV (PLH), (3) establishing central record keeping, (4) incentivizing VL monitoring, and (5) providing hospital-based outpatient care for complex cases. Using a pharmacy database, on-time VL monitoring and viral suppression were evaluated for 882 PLH initiating ART in the Zithulele catchment area in 2013. Among PLH initiating ART, 12.5% (n = 110) were lost to follow-up, 7.7% (n = 68) transferred out of the region, 10.2% (n = 90) left the program and came back at a later date, and 4.0% (n = 35) died. Of the on-treatment population, 82.9% (n = 480/579) had VL testing within 7 months and 92.6% (n = 536/579) by 1 year. Viral suppression was achieved in 85.2% of those tested (n = 457/536), or 78.9% (n = 457/579) overall. The program's VL testing and suppression rates appear about twice as high as national data and data from other rural centers in South Africa, despite fewer resources than other programs. Simple system innovations can ensure high rates of VL testing and suppression, even in rural health facilities.

Implementation and applications of EMOD, an individual-based multi-disease modeling platform

Individual-based models provide modularity and structural flexibility necessary for modeling of infectious diseases at the within-host and population levels, but are challenging to implement. Levels of complexity can exceed the capacity and timescales for students and trainees in most academic institutions. Here we describe the process and advantages of a multi-disease framework approach developed with formal software support. The epidemiological modeling software, EMOD, has undergone a decade of software development. It is structured so that a majority of code is shared across disease modeling including malaria, HIV, tuberculosis, dengue, polio and typhoid. In additional to implementation efficiency, the sharing increases code usage and testing. The freely available codebase also includes hundreds of regression tests, scientific feature tests and component tests to help verify functionality and avoid inadvertent changes to functionality during future development. Here we describe the levels of detail, flexible configurability and modularity enabled by EMOD and the role of software development principles and processes in its development.

Assessing rates and contextual predictors of 5-year mortality among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals following HIV testing in Durban, South Africa

Background

Little is known about contextual factors that predict long-term mortality following HIV testing in resource-limited settings. We evaluated the impact of contextual factors on 5-year mortality among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals in Durban, South Africa.

Methods

We used data from the Sizanani trial (NCT01188941) in which adults (≥18y) were enrolled prior to HIV testing at 4 outpatient sites. We ascertained vital status via the South African National Population Register. We used random survival forests to identify the most influential predictors of time to death and incorporated these into a Cox model that included age, gender, HIV status, CD4 count, healthcare usage, health facility type, mental health, and self-identified barriers to care (i.e., service delivery, financial, logistical, structural and perceived health).

Results

Among 4816 participants, 39% were HIV-infected. Median age was 31y and 49% were female. 380 of 2508 with survival information (15%) died during median follow-up of 5.8y. For both HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected participants, each additional barrier domain increased the HR of dying by 11% (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.05–1.18). Every 10-point increase in mental health score decreased the HR by 7% (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.89–0.97). The hazard ratio (HR) for death of HIV-infected versus HIV-uninfected varied by age: HR of 6.59 (95% CI: 4.79–9.06) at age 20 dropping to a HR of 1.13 (95% CI: 0.86–1.48) at age 60.

Conclusions

Independent of serostatus, more self-identified barrier domains and poorer mental health increased mortality risk. Additionally, the impact of HIV on mortality was most pronounced in younger persons. These factors may be used to identify high-risk individuals requiring intensive follow up, regardless of serostatus.

Trial registration

Clinical Trials.gov Identifier NCT01188941. Registered 26 August 2010.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-4373-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A viral genome wide association study and genotypic resistance testing in patients failing first line antiretroviral therapy in the first large countrywide Ethiopian HIV cohort

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) was rolled-out in Ethiopia in 2005, but there are no reports on outcome of ART and human immunodeficiency virus drug resistance (HIVDR) at national level. We described acquired drug resistance mutations in pol gene and performed a viral genome wide association study in virologic treatment failure patients who started first line ART during 2009-2011 in the first large countrywide HIV cohort in Ethiopia.

METHODS

The outcome of tenofovir (TDF)- and zidovudine (ZDV)-based ART was defined in 874 ART naïve patients using the on-treatment (OT) and intention-to-treat (ITT) analyses. Genotypic resistance testing was done in patients failing ART (> 1000 copies/ml) at month 6 and 12. Near full-length genome sequencing (NFLG) was used to assess amino acid changes in HIV-1 gag, pol, vif, vpr, tat, vpu, and nef genes between paired baseline and month 6 samples.

RESULTS

High failure rates were found in ITT analysis at month 6 and 12 (23.3%; 33.9% respectively). Major nucleoside and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase (NRTI/NNRTI) drug resistance mutations were detected in most failure patients at month 6 (36/47; 77%) and month 12 (20/30; 67%). A high rate of K65R was identified only in TDF treated patients (35.7%; 50.0%, respectively). No significant difference was found in failure rate or extent of HIVDR between TDF- and ZDV- treated patients. All target regions of interest for HIVDR were described by NFLG in 16 patients tested before initiation of ART and at month 6.

CONCLUSION

In this first Ethiopian national cohort, a high degree of HIVDR was seen among ART failure patients, independent on whether TDF- or ZDV was given. However, the major reason to ART failure was lost-to-follow-up rather than virologic failure. Our NFLG assay covered all relevant target genes for antiretrovirals and is an attractive alternative for HIVDR surveillance.

Examining engagement in care of women living with HIV in South India

HIV seropositive adherence-challenged women, who reported being on ART for at least four months were interviewed. Data on healthcare history, anti-retroviral therapy, clinic visits, doctor communication, disclosure and fear of stigma were collected. Better engagement in care was significantly more likely among older women, ≥ 10 years of education, higher income, HIV status disclosure to family, with higher community stigma fears and fewer healthcare access barriers. To promote retention, women may be encouraged to consider disclosing their HIV serostatus to supportive household members. A variety of possible interventions to overcome the prevalent barriers to care are provided.

Retention and mortality on antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: collaborative analyses of HIV treatment programmes

Introduction

By 2020, 90% of all people diagnosed with HIV should receive long‐term combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). In sub‐Saharan Africa, this target is threatened by loss to follow‐up in ART programmes. The proportion of people retained on ART long‐term cannot be easily determined, because individuals classified as lost to follow‐up, may have self‐transferred to another HIV treatment programme, or may have died. We describe retention on ART in sub‐Saharan Africa, first based on observed data as recorded in the clinic databases, and second adjusted for undocumented deaths and self‐transfers.

Methods

We analysed data from HIV‐infected adults and children initiating ART between 2009 and 2014 at a sub‐Saharan African HIV treatment programme participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA). We used the Kaplan–Meier method to calculate the cumulative incidence of retention on ART and the Aalen–Johansen method to calculate the cumulative incidences of death, loss to follow‐up, and stopping ART. We used inverse probability weighting to adjust clinic data for undocumented mortality and self‐transfer, based on estimates from a recent systematic review and meta‐analysis.

Results

We included 505,634 patients: 12,848 (2.5%) from Central Africa, 109,233 (21.6%) from East Africa, 347,343 (68.7%) from Southern Africa and 36,210 (7.2%) from West Africa. In crude analyses of observed clinic data, 52.1% of patients were retained on ART, 41.8% were lost to follow‐up and 6.0% had died 5 years after ART initiation. After accounting for undocumented deaths and self‐transfers, we estimated that 66.6% of patients were retained on ART, 18.8% had stopped ART and 14.7% had died at 5 years.

Conclusions

Improving long‐term retention on ART will be crucial to attaining the 90% on ART target. Naïve analyses of HIV cohort studies, which do not account for undocumented mortality and self‐transfer of patients, may severely underestimate both mortality and retention on ART.

IeDEA-WHO Research-Policy Collaboration: contributing real-world evidence to HIV progress reporting and guideline development

Partnerships between researchers and policymakers can improve uptake and integration of scientific evidence. This article describes the research-policy partnership between the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) ( www.iedea.org) and the World Health Organization (WHO), which was established in 2014. IeDEA is an international research consortium, which analyses data on almost 2 million people living with HIV under care in routine settings in 46 countries in Asia-Pacific, the Caribbean, Central and South America, North America and sub-Saharan Africa. Five multiregional analyses were identified to inform the WHO on progress towards the second and third 90s of the 90-90-90 targets in adults and children: (i) trends in CD4 cell counts at the start of antiretroviral therapy (ART); (ii) delays from enrolment in HIV care to ART initiation; (iii) the impact of ART guideline changes; (iv) retention in care, mortality and loss to follow-up; and (v) viral suppression within the first 3 years after initiating ART. Results from these analyses were contributed to the 2015 and 2016 WHO global HIV progress reports, will contribute to the 2018 report, and were published in academic journals. The partnership has been mutually beneficial: discussion of WHO policy agendas led to more policy-framed, relevant and timely IeDEA research, and the collaboration provided the WHO with timely access to the latest data from IeDEA, as it was shared prior to peer-review publication.

[Survival in HIV-1 patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in Morocco]

BACKGROUND

The purpose was to study factors associated with the survival of HIV-1 patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in Morocco.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

This was a retrospective study of a cohort of 182 HIV-1 patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in the department of dermatology venereology at the Military Instruction Hospital Mohamed V in Rabat during the period from 1 January 2006 to 1 January 2017. Death of any cause during the study period was considered to be the result of HIV infection. The log-rank test was used to compare the survival curves based on determinants. The Cox regression model analyzed the determinants of survival since induction of antiretroviral therapy.

RESULTS

The median follow-up time was 4.7 years (IQR: 1.97-8.18). The mortality rate was 75 deaths per 1000 person-years. Advanced clinical stage CDC C (RR: 2.72; CI 95%: 1.33-5.56) and treatment with indinavir (RR: 1.41; CI 95%: 0.77-2.59) were significantly associated with death.

CONCLUSION

Initiation of antiretroviral therapy in the early stage of the disease and use of less toxic molecules are recommended to reduce mortality.

Avoidable workload of care for patients living with HIV infection in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire: A cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

People living with HIV infection (PLWHIV) in Sub-Saharan Africa cope with an increasing workload of care (doctor visits, lab tests, medication management, refills, etc.) in a context of poor health service organization. We aimed to describe the workload of care for PLWHIV in Sub-Saharan Africa and assess to what extent simple adjustments in care organization could reduce this workload of care.

METHODS

Adult PLWHIV under antiretroviral treatment for at least 1 year were recruited in three centers (two public, one private) in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire. Using methods inspired from sociology, we precisely described all health-related activities (HRAs) performed by patients, in 1 month, in terms of time, money and opportunity costs. Then, we assessed the theoretical avoidable workload of care if patients' visits and tests had been grouped on the same days.

RESULTS

We enrolled 476 PLWHIV in the study. Patients devoted 6.7 hours (SD = 6.3), on average, in HRAs per month and spent 5% (SD = 11) of their monthly revenue, on average, on health activities. However, we found great inter-patient heterogeneity in the mixture of activities performed (managing medications; dietary recommendations; visits, tests, support groups; administrative tasks; etc.) and their time allocation, temporal dispersion and opportunity costs (personal, familial, social or professional costs). For 22% of patients, grouping activities on the same days could reduce both time and cost requirements by 20%.

CONCLUSION

PLWHIV in Côte d'Ivoire have a heavy workload of care. Grouping visits and tests on the same days may be a simple and feasible way to reduce patients' investment of time and money in their care.

Provision and continuation of antiretroviral therapy during acute conflict: the experience of MSF in Central African Republic and Yemen

BACKGROUND

Unstable settings present challenges for the effective provision of antiretroviral treatment (ART). In this paper, we summarize the experience and results of providing ART and implementing contingency plans during acute instability in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Yemen.

CASE PRESENTATION

In CAR, MSF has provided HIV care in three conflict-affected rural regions; these were put on hold throughout the acute phase of violence. "Run-away bags" containing 3 or 4 months of ART were distributed to patients at MSF facilities. Among 1820 HIV patients enrolled into care, 1440 (79%) initiated ART. By December 2016, 782 (54%) patients were still under ART, 354 (25%) have been lost to follow up and 182 (13%) had died. In 2013, when violence disrupted services, 683 patients were receiving ART. Between September-December 2013, 594 (87%) patients received runaway bags and by February 2014, 313 (53%) of these patients returned to the clinic.In Yemen, when violence erupted, patients received a health card that included a helpline to call in case of drug shortages in admission to emergency stocks; this was not possible in CAR due to lack of a functioning telephone network. One thousand six hundred fifty-five PLWHA have been enrolled in care and 1470 (89%) initiated ART; 1056 (72%) are still followed on ART, 126 (9%) were lost to follow up, and 288 (20%) died. In January 2011 clashes began and by April 2011 MSF medical activities were interrupted. Of the 363 patients receiving ART, 363 (100%) received emergency bags to cover 9 months and by February 2012, 354 (98%) patients returned to care. In March 2015 a new wave of conflict affected Yemen, forcing HIV activities to revert to contingency planning.

CONCLUSIONS

This experience provides further evidence that provision of HIV treatment and emergency drug stocks can be successfully provided to most patients in both conflict-affected settings.