Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores

Polygenic Risk Scores and Extreme Coronary Artery Calcium Phenotypes (CAC=0 and CAC≥1000) in Adults ≥75 Years Old: The ARIC Study

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is heterogeneous in older age and is incompletely explained by traditional atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk factors. The extremes of subclinical atherosclerosis burden are strongly associated with either a low or high 10-year risk of incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, respectively. However, the genetic underpinnings of differences in arterial aging remain unclear. We sought to determine the independent association of 2 polygenic scores for coronary heart disease (CHD) with CAC in adults ≥75 years of age.

METHODS

There were 1865 ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) participants who underwent genetic testing at visit 1 (1987-1989) and CAC scans at visit 7 (2018-2019). In the primary analysis, an externally derived multi-ancestry polygenic CHD risk score was calculated for both White and Black participants. Results were confirmed using a separate ARIC-derived polygenic CHD risk score, including ≥6 million variants computed for White participants. We used multivariable logistic regression models to assess the association of polygenic CHD risk with CAC, after adjusting for baseline, time-averaged lifestyle, traditional risk factors, and local ancestry principal components.

RESULTS

In the primary analysis, the average age was 80.6 years old, 61.6% were women, and the median CAC score was 246 (189 participants with CAC=0, 364 participants with CAC≥1000). Compared with persons below the 20th percentile of polygenic CHD risk, persons with polygenic-CHD risk above the 80th percentile had 82% lower odds of having CAC=0 (odds ratio, 0.18 [95% CI, 0.09-0.37]) and had >4-fold higher odds of CAC≥1000 (odds ratio, 4.77 [95% CI, 2.88-7.88]). On a continuous scale, each SD increment increase in the polygenic risk score was associated with a 78% higher CAC score. Results were nearly identical using a second confirmatory polygenic CHD risk score in White participants.

CONCLUSIONS

Polygenic CHD risk is robustly associated with a lower prevalence of CAC=0 and a higher prevalence of CAC≥1000 in adults ≥75 years of age, beyond lifestyle and traditional risk factors. These results suggest a heritable contribution to distinct healthy and unhealthy arterial aging phenotypes that persist throughout the life course.

Identification of women at high risk of postpartum psychiatric episodes: A population-based study quantifying relative and absolute risks following exposure to selected risk factors and genetic liability

BACKGROUND

We quantified relative and absolute risks of postpartum psychiatric episodes (PPE) following risk factors: Young age, past personal or family history of psychiatric disorders, and genetic liability.

METHODS

We conducted a register-based study using the iPSYCH2012 case-cohort sample. Exposures were personal history of psychiatric episodes prior to childbirth, being a young mother (giving birth before the age of 21.5 years), having a family history of psychiatric disorders, and a high (highest quartile) polygenic score (PGS) for major depression. PPE was defined within 12 months postpartum by prescription of psychotropic medication or in- and outpatient contact to a psychiatric facility. We included primiparous women born 1981-1999, giving birth before January 1st, 2016. We conducted Cox regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) of PPE, absolute risks were calculated using cumulative incidence functions.

RESULTS

We included 8174 primiparous women, and the estimated baseline PPE risk was 6.9% (95% CI 6.0%-7.8%, number of PPE cases: 2169). For young mothers with a personal and family history of psychiatric disorders, the absolute risk of PPE was 21.6% (95% CI 15.9%-27.8%). Adding information on high genetic liability to depression, the risk increased to 29.2% (95% CI 21.3%-38.4%) for PPE.

CONCLUSIONS

Information on prior personal and family psychiatric episodes as well as age may assist in estimating a personalized risk of PPE. Furthermore, additional information on genetic liability could add even further to this risk assessment.

The utility of obesity polygenic risk scores from research to clinical practice: A review

Obesity represents a major public health emergency worldwide, and its etiology is shaped by a complex interplay of environmental and genetic factors. Over the last decade, polygenic risk scores (PRS) have emerged as a promising tool to quantify an individual's genetic risk of obesity. The field of PRS in obesity genetics is rapidly evolving, shedding new lights on obesity mechanisms and holding promise for contributing to personalized prevention and treatment. Challenges persist in terms of its clinical integration, including the need for further validation in large-scale prospective cohorts, ethical considerations, and implications for health disparities. In this review, we provide a comprehensive overview of PRS for studying the genetics of obesity, spanning from methodological nuances to clinical applications and challenges. We summarize the latest developments in the generation and refinement of PRS for obesity, including advances in methodologies for aggregating genome-wide association study data and improving PRS predictive accuracy, and discuss limitations that need to be overcome to fully realize its potential benefits of PRS in both medicine and public health.

Environment-by-PGS Interaction in the Classical Twin Design: An Application to Childhood Anxiety and Negative Affect

One type of genotype-environment interaction occurs when genetic effects on a phenotype are moderated by an environment; or when environmental effects on a phenotype are moderated by genes. Here we outline these types of genotype-environment interaction models, and propose a test of genotype-environment interaction based on the classical twin design, which includes observed genetic variables (polygenic scores: PGSs) that account for part of the genetic variance of the phenotype. We introduce environment-by-PGS interaction and the results of a simulation study to address statistical power and parameter recovery. Next, we apply the model to empirical data on anxiety and negative affect in children. The power to detect environment-by-PGS interaction depends on the heritability of the phenotype, and the strength of the PGS. The simulation results indicate that under realistic conditions of sample size, heritability and strength of the interaction, the environment-by-PGS model is a viable approach to detect genotype-environment interaction. In 7-year-old children, we defined two PGS based on the largest genetic association studies for 2 traits that are genetically correlated to childhood anxiety and negative affect, namely major depression (MDD) and intelligence (IQ). We find that common environmental influences on negative affect are amplified for children with a lower IQ-PGS.

Effects of polygenic risk score and sodium and potassium intake on hypertension in Asians: A nationwide prospective cohort study

Genetic factors, lifestyle, and diet have been shown to play important roles in the development of hypertension. Increased salt intake is an important risk factor for hypertension. However, research on the involvement of genetic factors in the relationship between salt intake and hypertension in Asians is lacking. We aimed to investigate the risk of hypertension in relation to sodium and potassium intake and the effects of genetic factors on their interactions. We used Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study data and calculated the polygenic risk score (PRS) for the effect of systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP). We also conducted multivariable logistic modeling to evaluate associations among incident hypertension, PRSSBP, PRSDBP, and sodium and potassium intake. In total, 41,351 subjects were included in the test set. The top 10% PRSSBP group was the youngest of the three groups (bottom 10%, middle, top 10%), had the highest proportion of women, and had the highest body mass index, baseline BP, red meat intake, and alcohol consumption. The multivariable logistic regression model revealed the risk of hypertension was significantly associated with higher PRSSBP, higher sodium intake, and lower potassium intake. There was significant interaction between sodium intake and PRSSBP for incident hypertension especially in sodium intake ≥2.0 g/day and PRSSBP top 10% group (OR 1.27 (1.07-1.51), P = 0.007). Among patients at a high risk of incident hypertension due to sodium intake, lifestyle modifications and sodium restriction were especially important to prevent hypertension.

Methodologies underpinning polygenic risk scores estimation: a comprehensive overview

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have emerged as a promising tool for predicting disease risk and treatment outcomes using genomic data. Thousands of genome-wide association studies (GWAS), primarily involving populations of European ancestry, have supported the development of PRS models. However, these models have not been adequately evaluated in non-European populations, raising concerns about their clinical validity and predictive power across diverse groups. Addressing this issue requires developing novel risk prediction frameworks that leverage genetic characteristics across diverse populations, considering host-microbiome interactions and a broad range of health measures. One of the key aspects in evaluating PRS is understanding the strengths and limitations of various methods for constructing them. In this review, we analyze strengths and limitations of different methods for constructing PRS, including traditional weighted approaches and new methods such as Bayesian and Frequentist penalized regression approaches. Finally, we summarize recent advances in PRS calculation methods development, and highlight key areas for future research, including development of models robust across diverse populations by underlining the complex interplay between genetic variants across diverse ancestral backgrounds in disease risk as well as treatment response prediction. PRS hold great promise for improving disease risk prediction and personalized medicine; therefore, their implementation must be guided by careful consideration of their limitations, biases, and ethical implications to ensure that they are used in a fair, equitable, and responsible manner.

Controlling for polygenic genetic confounding in epidemiologic association studies

Epidemiologic associations estimated from observational data are often confounded by genetics due to pervasive pleiotropy among complex traits. Many studies either neglect genetic confounding altogether or rely on adjusting for polygenic scores (PGS) in regression analysis. In this study, we unveil that the commonly employed PGS approach is inadequate for removing genetic confounding due to measurement error and model misspecification. To tackle this challenge, we introduce PENGUIN, a principled framework for polygenic genetic confounding control based on variance component estimation. In addition, we present extensions of this approach that can estimate genetically unconfounded associations using GWAS summary statistics alone as input and between multiple generations of study samples. Through simulations, we demonstrate superior statistical properties of PENGUIN compared to the existing approaches. Applying our method to multiple population cohorts, we reveal and remove substantial genetic confounding in the associations of educational attainment with various complex traits and between parental and offspring education. Our results show that PENGUIN is an effective solution for genetic confounding control in observational data analysis with broad applications in future epidemiologic association studies.

Polygenic liabilities and treatment trajectories in early-onset depression: a Danish register-based study

BACKGROUND

The clinical course of major depressive disorder (MDD) is heterogeneous, and early-onset MDD often has a more severe and complex clinical course. Our goal was to determine whether polygenic scores (PGSs) for psychiatric disorders are associated with treatment trajectories in early-onset MDD treated in secondary care.

METHODS

Data were drawn from the iPSYCH2015 sample, which includes all individuals born in Denmark between 1981 and 2008 who were treated in secondary care for depression between 1995 and 2015. We selected unrelated individuals of European ancestry with an MDD diagnosis between ages 10-25 (N = 10577). Seven-year trajectories of hospital contacts for depression were modeled using Latent Class Growth Analysis. Associations between PGS for MDD, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, ADHD, and anorexia and trajectories of MDD contacts were modeled using multinomial logistic regressions.

RESULTS

We identified four trajectory patterns: brief contact (65%), prolonged initial contact (20%), later re-entry (8%), and persistent contact (7%). Relative to the brief contact trajectory, higher PGS for ADHD was associated with a decreased odds of membership in the prolonged initial contact (odds ratio = 1.06, 95% confidence interval = 1.01-1.11) and persistent contact (1.12, 1.03-1.21) trajectories, while PGS-AN was associated with increased odds of membership in the persistent contact trajectory (1.12, 1.03-1.21).

CONCLUSIONS

We found significant associations between polygenic liabilities for psychiatric disorders and treatment trajectories in patients with secondary-treated early-onset MDD. These findings help elucidate the relationship between a patient's genetics and their clinical course; however, the effect sizes are small and therefore unlikely to have predictive value in clinical settings.

Optimizing and benchmarking polygenic risk scores with GWAS summary statistics

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk score (PRS) is a major research topic in human genetics. However, a significant gap exists between PRS methodology and applications in practice due to often unavailable individual-level data for various PRS tasks including model fine-tuning, benchmarking, and ensemble learning.

RESULTS

We introduce an innovative statistical framework to optimize and benchmark PRS models using summary statistics of genome-wide association studies. This framework builds upon our previous work and can fine-tune virtually all existing PRS models while accounting for linkage disequilibrium. In addition, we provide an ensemble learning strategy named PUMAS-ensemble to combine multiple PRS models into an ensemble score without requiring external data for model fitting. Through extensive simulations and analysis of many complex traits in the UK Biobank, we demonstrate that this approach closely approximates gold-standard analytical strategies based on external validation, and substantially outperforms state-of-the-art PRS methods.

CONCLUSIONS

Our method is a powerful and general modeling technique that can continue to combine the best-performing PRS methods out there through ensemble learning and could become an integral component for all future PRS applications.

Polygenic Interactions With Environmental Exposures in Blood Pressure Regulation: The HUNT Study

BACKGROUND

The essential hypertension phenotype results from an interplay between genetic and environmental factors. The influence of lifestyle exposures such as excess adiposity, alcohol consumption, tobacco use, diet, and activity patterns on blood pressure (BP) is well established. Additionally, polygenic risk scores for BP traits are associated with clinically significant phenotypic variation. However, interactions between genetic and environmental risk factors in hypertension morbidity and mortality are poorly characterized.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used genotype and phenotype data from up to 49 234 participants from the HUNT (Trøndelag Health Study) to model gene-environment interactions between genome-wide polygenic risk scores for systolic BP and diastolic BP and 125 environmental exposures. Among the 125 environmental exposures assessed, 108 and 100 were independently associated with SBP and DBP, respectively. Of these, 12 interactions were identified for genome-wide PRSs for systolic BP and 4 for genome-wide polygenic risk scores for diastolic BP, 2 of which were overlapping (P < 2 × 10-4). We found evidence for gene-dependent influence of lifestyle factors such as cardiorespiratory fitness, dietary patterns, and tobacco exposure, as well as biomarkers such as serum cholesterol, creatinine, and alkaline phosphatase on BP.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals that are genetically susceptible to high BP may be more vulnerable to common acquired risk factors for hypertension, but these effects appear to be modifiable. The gene-dependent influence of several common acquired risk factors indicates the potential of genetic data combined with lifestyle assessments in risk stratification, and gene-environment-informed risk modeling in the prevention and management of hypertension.

Stability and change in maternal wellbeing and illbeing from pregnancy to three years postpartum

PURPOSE

Motherhood affects women's mental health, encompassing aspects of both wellbeing and illbeing. This study investigated stability and change in wellbeing (i.e., relationship satisfaction and positive affect) and illbeing (i.e., depressive and anxiety symptoms) from pregnancy to three years postpartum. We further investigated the mutual and dynamic relations between these constructs over time and the role of genetic propensities in their time-invariant stability.

DATA AND METHODS

This four-wave longitudinal study included 83,124 women from the Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) linked to the Medical Birth Registry of Norway. Data were collected during pregnancy (30 weeks) and at 6, 18 and 36 months postpartum. Wellbeing and illbeing were based on the Relationship Satisfaction Scale, the Differential Emotions Scale and Hopkins Symptoms Checklist-8. Genetics were measured by the wellbeing spectrum polygenic index. Analyses were based on random intercept cross-lagged panel models using R.

RESULTS

All four outcomes showed high stability and were mutually interconnected over time, with abundant cross-lagged predictions. The period of greatest instability was from pregnancy to 6 months postpartum, followed by increasing stability. Prenatal relationship satisfaction played a crucial role in maternal mental health postpartum. Women's genetic propensity to wellbeing contributed to time-invariant stability of all four constructs.

CONCLUSION

Understanding the mutual relationship between different aspects of wellbeing and illbeing allows for identifying potential targets for health promotion interventions. Time-invariant stability was partially explained by genetics. Maternal wellbeing and illbeing develop in an interdependent way from pregnancy to 36 months postpartum.

Genetic associations between non-cognitive skills and academic achievement over development

Non-cognitive skills, such as motivation and self-regulation, are partly heritable and predict academic achievement beyond cognitive skills. However, how the relationship between non-cognitive skills and academic achievement changes over development is unclear. The current study examined how cognitive and non-cognitive skills are associated with academic achievement from ages 7 to 16 years in a sample of over 10,000 children from England and Wales. The results showed that the association between non-cognitive skills and academic achievement increased across development. Twin and polygenic scores analyses found that the links between non-cognitive genetics and academic achievement became stronger over the school years. The results from within-family analyses indicated that non-cognitive genetic effects on academic achievement could not simply be attributed to confounding by environmental differences between nuclear families, consistent with a possible role for evocative/active gene-environment correlations. By studying genetic associations through a developmental lens, we provide further insights into the role of non-cognitive skills in academic development.

Screening embryos for polygenic disease risk: a review of epidemiological, clinical, and ethical considerations

BACKGROUND

The genetic composition of embryos generated by in vitro fertilization (IVF) can be examined with preimplantation genetic testing (PGT). Until recently, PGT was limited to detecting single-gene, high-risk pathogenic variants, large structural variants, and aneuploidy. Recent advances have made genome-wide genotyping of IVF embryos feasible and affordable, raising the possibility of screening embryos for their risk of polygenic diseases such as breast cancer, hypertension, diabetes, or schizophrenia. Despite a heated debate around this new technology, called polygenic embryo screening (PES; also PGT-P), it is already available to IVF patients in some countries. Several articles have studied epidemiological, clinical, and ethical perspectives on PES; however, a comprehensive, principled review of this emerging field is missing.

OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE

This review has four main goals. First, given the interdisciplinary nature of PES studies, we aim to provide a self-contained educational background about PES to reproductive specialists interested in the subject. Second, we provide a comprehensive and critical review of arguments for and against the introduction of PES, crystallizing and prioritizing the key issues. We also cover the attitudes of IVF patients, clinicians, and the public towards PES. Third, we distinguish between possible future groups of PES patients, highlighting the benefits and harms pertaining to each group. Finally, our review, which is supported by ESHRE, is intended to aid healthcare professionals and policymakers in decision-making regarding whether to introduce PES in the clinic, and if so, how, and to whom.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched for PubMed-indexed articles published between 1/1/2003 and 1/3/2024 using the terms 'polygenic embryo screening', 'polygenic preimplantation', and 'PGT-P'. We limited the review to primary research papers in English whose main focus was PES for medical conditions. We also included papers that did not appear in the search but were deemed relevant.

OUTCOMES

The main theoretical benefit of PES is a reduction in lifetime polygenic disease risk for children born after screening. The magnitude of the risk reduction has been predicted based on statistical modelling, simulations, and sibling pair analyses. Results based on all methods suggest that under the best-case scenario, large relative risk reductions are possible for one or more diseases. However, as these models abstract several practical limitations, the realized benefits may be smaller, particularly due to a limited number of embryos and unclear future accuracy of the risk estimates. PES may negatively impact patients and their future children, as well as society. The main personal harms are an unindicated IVF treatment, a possible reduction in IVF success rates, and patient confusion, incomplete counselling, and choice overload. The main possible societal harms include discarded embryos, an increasing demand for 'designer babies', overemphasis of the genetic determinants of disease, unequal access, and lower utility in people of non-European ancestries. Benefits and harms will vary across the main potential patient groups, comprising patients already requiring IVF, fertile people with a history of a severe polygenic disease, and fertile healthy people. In the United States, the attitudes of IVF patients and the public towards PES seem positive, while healthcare professionals are cautious, sceptical about clinical utility, and concerned about patient counselling.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS

The theoretical potential of PES to reduce risk across multiple polygenic diseases requires further research into its benefits and harms. Given the large number of practical limitations and possible harms, particularly unnecessary IVF treatments and discarded viable embryos, PES should be offered only within a research context before further clarity is achieved regarding its balance of benefits and harms. The gap in attitudes between healthcare professionals and the public needs to be narrowed by expanding public and patient education and providing resources for informative and unbiased genetic counselling.

Differential prediction performance between Caribbean- and Mainland-subgroups using state-of-the-art polygenic risk scores for coronary heart disease: Findings from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL)

Background

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is a leading cause of death for Hispanic/Latino populations in the United States. We evaluated polygenic risk scores (PRS) with incident myocardial infarction (MI) in a Hispanic/Latino study sample.

Methods

We leveraged data from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) to assess four CHD-PRS from the PGS catalog, derived using multiple methods (LDpred, AnnoPred, stacked clumping and thresholding, and LDPred2). We evaluated associations between each standardized PRS and time to adjudicated incident MI, adjusted for age, sex, first 5 principal components, and weighted for survey design. Concordance statistics (c-index) compared predictive accuracy of each PRS with, and in addition to, traditional risk factors (TRF) for CHD (obesity, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, diabetes, and smoking). Analyses were stratified by self-reported Caribbean- (Puerto Rican, Dominican or Cuban) and Mainland-(those of Mexican, Central American, or South American) heritage subgroups.

Results

After 11 years follow-up, for 9055 participants (mean age (SD) 47.6(13.1), 62.2% female), the incidence of MI was 1.0% (n = 95). Each PRS was more strongly associated with MI among Mainland participants. LDPred2 + TRF performed best among the Mainland subgroup; HR=2.69, 95% CI [1.71, 4.20], c-index = 0.897, 95% CI [0.848, 0.946]; a modest increase over TRF alone, c-index = 0.880, 95% CI [0.827, 0.933]. AnnoPred + TRF performed best among the Caribbean sample; c-index = 0.721, 95% CI [0.647, 0.795]; however, was not significantly associated with rate of MI (HR=1.14, 95% CI [0.82, 1.60]).

Conclusion

PRS performance for CHD is lacking for Hispanics/Latinos of Caribbean origin who have substantial proportions of African genetic ancestry, risking increased health disparities. AnnoPred, using functional annotations, outperformed other PRS in the Caribbean subgroup, suggesting a potential strategy for PRS construction in diverse populations. These results underscore the need to optimize cumulative genetic risk prediction of CHD in diverse Hispanic/Latino populations.

Sex-specific and polygenic effects underlying resting heart rate and associated risk of cardiovascular disease

AIMS

Resting heart rate (RHR) is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. This study aimed to identify genetic loci associated with RHR, develop a genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS) for RHR, and assess associations between the RHR PRS and CVD outcomes, to better understand the biological mechanisms linking RHR to disease. Sex-specific analyses were conducted to potentially elucidate different pathways between the sexes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed a genome-wide meta-analysis of RHR (n = 550 467) using two independent study populations, The Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT) and the UK Biobank (UKB), comprising 69 155 and 481 312 participants, respectively. We also developed a genome-wide PRS for RHR using UKB and tested for association between the PRS and 13 disease outcomes in HUNT. We identified 403, 253, and 167 independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) significantly associated with RHR in the total population, women, and men, respectively. The sex-specified analyses indicated differences in the genetic contribution to RHR and revealed loci significantly associated with RHR in only one of the sexes. The SNPs were mapped to genes enriched in heart tissue and cardiac conduction pathways, as well as disease-pathways, including dilated cardiomyopathy. The PRS for RHR was associated with increased risk of hypertension and dilated cardiomyopathy, and decreased risk of atrial fibrillation.

CONCLUSION

Our findings provide insight into the pleiotropic effects of the RHR variants, contributing towards an improved understanding of mechanisms linking RHR and disease. In addition, the sex-specific results might contribute to a more refined understanding of RHR as a risk factor for the different diseases.

Improving on polygenic scores across complex traits using select and shrink with summary statistics (S4) and LDpred2

BACKGROUND

As precision medicine advances, polygenic scores (PGS) have become increasingly important for clinical risk assessment. Many methods have been developed to create polygenic models with increased accuracy for risk prediction. Our select and shrink with summary statistics (S4) PGS method has previously been shown to accurately predict the polygenic risk of epithelial ovarian cancer. Here, we applied S4 PGS to 12 phenotypes for UK Biobank participants, and compared it with the LDpred2 and a combined S4 + LDpred2 method.

RESULTS

The S4 + LDpred2 method provided overall improved PGS accuracy across a variety of phenotypes for UK Biobank participants. Additionally, the S4 + LDpred2 method had the best estimated PGS accuracy in Finnish and Japanese populations. We also addressed the challenge of limited genotype level data by developing the PGS models using only GWAS summary statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, the S4 + LDpred2 method represents an improvement in overall PGS accuracy across multiple phenotypes and populations.

Commonly used genomic arrays may lose information due to imperfect coverage of discovered variants for autism spectrum disorder

BACKGROUND

Common genetic variation has been shown to account for a large proportion of ASD heritability. Polygenic scores generated for autism spectrum disorder (ASD-PGS) using the most recent discovery data, however, explain less variance than expected, despite reporting significant associations with ASD and other ASD-related traits. Here, we investigate the extent to which information loss on the target study genome-wide microarray weakens the predictive power of the ASD-PGS.

METHODS

We studied genotype data from three cohorts of individuals with high familial liability for ASD: The Early Autism Risk Longitudinal Investigation (EARLI), Markers of Autism Risk in Babies-Learning Early Signs (MARBLES), and the Infant Brain Imaging Study (IBIS), and one population-based sample, Study to Explore Early Development Phase I (SEED I). Individuals were genotyped on different microarrays ranging from 1 to 5 million sites. Coverage of the top 88 genome-wide suggestive variants implicated in the discovery was evaluated in all four studies before quality control (QC), after QC, and after imputation. We then created a novel method to assess coverage on the resulting ASD-PGS by correlating a PGS informed by a comprehensive list of variants to a PGS informed with only the available variants.

RESULTS

Prior to imputations, None of the four cohorts directly or indirectly covered all 88 variants among the measured genotype data. After imputation, the two cohorts genotyped on 5-million arrays reached full coverage. Analysis of our novel metric showed generally high genome-wide coverage across all four studies, but a greater number of SNPs informing the ASD-PGS did not result in improved coverage according to our metric.

LIMITATIONS

The studies we analyzed contained modest sample sizes. Our analyses included microarrays with more than 1-million sites, so smaller arrays such as Global Diversity and the PsychArray were not included. Our PGS metric for ASD is only generalizable to samples of European ancestries, though the coverage metric can be computed for traits that have sufficiently large-sized discovery findings in other ancestries.

CONCLUSIONS

We show that commonly used genotyping microarrays have incomplete coverage for common ASD variants, and imputation cannot always recover lost information. Our novel metric provides an intuitive approach to reporting information loss in PGS and an alternative to reporting the total number of SNPs included in the PGS. While applied only to ASD here, this metric can easily be used with other traits.

Genetic associations with disease in populations with Indigenous American ancestries

The genetic architecture of complex diseases affecting populations with Indigenous American ancestries is poorly understood due to their underrepresentation in genomics studies. While most of the genetic diversity associated with disease trait variation is shared among worldwide populations, a fraction of this component is expected to be unique to each continental group, including Indigenous Americans. Here, I describe the current state of knowledge from genome-wide association studies on Indigenous populations, as well as non-Indigenous populations with partial Indigenous ancestries from the American continent, focusing on disease susceptibility and anthropometric traits. While some studies identified risk alleles unique to Indigenous populations, their effects on trait variation are mostly small. I suggest that the associations rendered by many inter-population studies are probably inflated due to the absence of socio-cultural-economic covariates in the association models. I encourage the inclusion of admixed individuals in future GWAS studies to control for inter-ancestry differences in environmental factors. I suggest that some complex diseases might have arisen as trade-off costs of adaptations to past evolutionary selective pressures. Finally, I discuss how expanding panels with Indigenous ancestries in GWAS studies is key to accurately assess genetic risk in populations from the American continent, thus decreasing global health disparities.

Polygenic risk score adds to a clinical risk score in the prediction of cardiovascular disease in a clinical setting

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A cardiovascular disease polygenic risk score (CVD-PRS) can stratify individuals into different categories of cardiovascular risk, but whether the addition of a CVD-PRS to clinical risk scores improves the identification of individuals at increased risk in a real-world clinical setting is unknown.

METHODS

The Genetics and the Vascular Health Check Study (GENVASC) was embedded within the UK National Health Service Health Check (NHSHC) programme which invites individuals between 40-74 years of age without known CVD to attend an assessment in a UK general practice where CVD risk factors are measured and a CVD risk score (QRISK2) is calculated. Between 2012-2020, 44,141 individuals (55.7% females, 15.8% non-white) who attended an NHSHC in 147 participating practices across two counties in England were recruited and followed. When 195 individuals (cases) had suffered a major CVD event (CVD death, myocardial infarction or acute coronary syndrome, coronary revascularisation, stroke), 396 propensity-matched controls with a similar risk profile were identified, and a nested case-control genetic study undertaken to see if the addition of a CVD-PRS to QRISK2 in the form of an integrated risk tool (IRT) combined with QRISK2 would have identified more individuals at the time of their NHSHC as at high risk (QRISK2 10-year CVD risk of ≥10%), compared with QRISK2 alone.

RESULTS

The distribution of the standardised CVD-PRS was significantly different in cases compared with controls (cases mean score .32; controls, -.18, P = 8.28×10-9). QRISK2 identified 61.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 54.3%-68.4%) of individuals who subsequently developed a major CVD event as being at high risk at their NHSHC, while the combination of QRISK2 and IRT identified 68.7% (95% CI: 61.7%-75.2%), a relative increase of 11.7% (P = 1×10-4). The odds ratio (OR) of being up-classified was 2.41 (95% CI: 1.03-5.64, P = .031) for cases compared with controls. In individuals aged 40-54 years, QRISK2 identified 26.0% (95% CI: 16.5%-37.6%) of those who developed a major CVD event, while the combination of QRISK2 and IRT identified 38.4% (95% CI: 27.2%-50.5%), indicating a stronger relative increase of 47.7% in the younger age group (P = .001). The combination of QRISK2 and IRT increased the proportion of additional cases identified similarly in women as in men, and in non-white ethnicities compared with white ethnicity. The findings were similar when the CVD-PRS was added to the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease pooled cohort equations (ASCVD-PCE) or SCORE2 clinical scores.

CONCLUSIONS

In a clinical setting, the addition of genetic information to clinical risk assessment significantly improved the identification of individuals who went on to have a major CVD event as being at high risk, especially among younger individuals. The findings provide important real-world evidence of the potential value of implementing a CVD-PRS into health systems.

Identifying potential causal effects of Parkinson's disease: A polygenic risk score-based phenome-wide association and mendelian randomization study in UK Biobank

There is considerable uncertainty regarding the associations between various risk factors and Parkinson's Disease (PD). This study systematically screened and validated a wide range of potential PD risk factors from 502,364 participants in the UK Biobank. Baseline data for 1851 factors across 11 categories were analyzed through a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS). Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for PD were used to diagnose Parkinson's Disease and identify factors associated with PD diagnosis through PheWAS. Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was employed to assess causal relationships. PheWAS results revealed 267 risk factors significantly associated with PD-PRS among the 1851 factors, and of these, 27 factors showed causal evidence from MR analysis. Compelling evidence suggests that fluid intelligence score, age at first sexual intercourse, cereal intake, dried fruit intake, and average total household income before tax have emerged as newly identified risk factors for PD. Conversely, maternal smoking around birth, playing computer games, salt added to food, and time spent watching television have been identified as novel protective factors against PD. The integration of phenotypic and genomic data may help to identify risk factors and prevention targets for PD.

Polygenic risk score portability for common diseases across genetically diverse populations

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) derived from European individuals have reduced portability across global populations, limiting their clinical implementation at worldwide scale. Here, we investigate the performance of a wide range of PRS models across four ancestry groups (Africans, Europeans, East Asians, and South Asians) for 14 conditions of high-medical interest.

METHODS

To select the best-performing model per trait, we first compared PRS performances for publicly available scores, and constructed new models using different methods (LDpred2, PRS-CSx and SNPnet). We used 285 K European individuals from the UK Biobank (UKBB) for training and 18 K, including diverse ancestries, for testing. We then evaluated PRS portability for the best models in Europeans and compared their accuracies with respect to the best PRS per ancestry. Finally, we validated the selected PRS models using an independent set of 8,417 individuals from Biobank of the Americas-Genomelink (BbofA-GL); and performed a PRS-Phewas.

RESULTS

We confirmed a decay in PRS performances relative to Europeans when the evaluation was conducted using the best-PRS model for Europeans (51.3% for South Asians, 46.6% for East Asians and 39.4% for Africans). We observed an improvement in the PRS performances when specifically selecting ancestry specific PRS models (phenotype variance increase: 1.62 for Africans, 1.40 for South Asians and 0.96 for East Asians). Additionally, when we selected the optimal model conditional on ancestry for CAD, HDL-C and LDL-C, hypertension, hypothyroidism and T2D, PRS performance for studied populations was more comparable to what was observed in Europeans. Finally, we were able to independently validate tested models for Europeans, and conducted a PRS-Phewas, identifying cross-trait interplay between cardiometabolic conditions, and between immune-mediated components.

CONCLUSION

Our work comprehensively evaluated PRS accuracy across a wide range of phenotypes, reducing the uncertainty with respect to which PRS model to choose and in which ancestry group. This evaluation has let us identify specific conditions where implementing risk-prioritization strategies could have practical utility across diverse ancestral groups, contributing to democratizing the implementation of PRS.

A review of disease risk prediction methods and applications in the omics era

Risk prediction and disease prevention are the innovative care challenges of the 21st century. Apart from freeing the individual from the pain of disease, it will lead to low medical costs for society. Until very recently, risk assessments have ushered in a new era with the emergence of omics technologies, including genomics, transcriptomics, epigenomics, proteomics, and so on, which potentially advance the ability of biomarkers to aid prediction models. While risk prediction has achieved great success, there are still some challenges and limitations. We reviewed the general process of omics-based disease risk model construction and the applications in four typical diseases. Meanwhile, we highlighted the problems in current studies and explored the potential opportunities and challenges for future clinical practice.

Associations of polygenic risk scores with risks of stroke and its subtypes in Chinese

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Previous studies, mostly focusing on the European population, have reported polygenic risk scores (PRSs) might achieve risk stratification of stroke. We aimed to examine the association strengths of PRSs with risks of stroke and its subtypes in the Chinese population.

METHODS

Participants with genome-wide genotypic data in China Kadoorie Biobank were split into a potential training set (n=22 191) and a population-based testing set (n=72 150). Four previously developed PRSs were included, and new PRSs for stroke and its subtypes were developed. The PRSs showing the strongest association with risks of stroke or its subtypes in the training set were further evaluated in the testing set. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the association strengths of different PRSs with risks of stroke and its subtypes (ischaemic stroke (IS), intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) and subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH)).

RESULTS

In the testing set, during 872 919 person-years of follow-up, 8514 incident stroke events were documented. The PRSs of any stroke (AS) and IS were both positively associated with risks of AS, IS and ICH (p<0.05). The HR for per SD increment (HRSD) of PRSAS was 1.10 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.12), 1.10 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.12) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.20) for AS, IS and ICH, respectively. The corresponding HRSD of PRSIS was 1.08 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.11), 1.08 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.11) and 1.09 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.15). PRSICH was positively associated with the risk of ICH (HRSD=1.07, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.14). PRSSAH was not associated with risks of stroke and its subtypes. The addition of current PRSs offered little to no improvement in stroke risk prediction and risk stratification.

CONCLUSIONS

In this Chinese population, the association strengths of current PRSs with risks of stroke and its subtypes were moderate, suggesting a limited value for improving risk prediction over traditional risk factors in the context of current genome-wide association study under-representing the East Asian population.

A genome-wide association study identifies novel loci of vertigo in an Asian population-based cohort

The contributing genetic factors of vertigo remain poorly characterized, particularly in individuals of non-European ancestries. Here we show the genetic landscape of vertigo in an Asian population-based cohort. In a two-stage genome-wide association study (Ncase = 6199; Ncontrol = 54,587), we identify vertigo-associated genomic loci in DROSHA and ZNF91/LINC01224, with the latter replicating the findings in European ancestries. Gene-based association testing corroborates these findings. Interestingly, both genes are enriched in cerebellum, a key structure receiving sensory input from the vestibular system. Subjects carrying risk alleles from lead SNPs of DROSHA and ZNF91 incur a 1.74-fold risk of vertigo than those without. Moreover, composite clinical-polygenic risk scores allow differentiation between patients and controls, yielding an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.69. This study identified novel genomic loci for vertigo in an Asian population-based cohort, which may help identifying high risk subjects and provide mechanistic insight in understanding the pathogenesis of vertigo.

Fast and scalable ensemble learning method for versatile polygenic risk prediction

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) enhance population risk stratification and advance personalized medicine, but existing methods face several limitations, encompassing issues related to computational burden, predictive accuracy, and adaptability to a wide range of genetic architectures. To address these issues, we propose Aggregated L0Learn using Summary-level data (ALL-Sum), a fast and scalable ensemble learning method for computing PRS using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS). ALL-Sum leverages a L0L2 penalized regression and ensemble learning across tuning parameters to flexibly model traits with diverse genetic architectures. In extensive large-scale simulations across a wide range of polygenicity and GWAS sample sizes, ALL-Sum consistently outperformed popular alternative methods in terms of prediction accuracy, runtime, and memory usage by 10%, 20-fold, and threefold, respectively, and demonstrated robustness to diverse genetic architectures. We validated the performance of ALL-Sum in real data analysis of 11 complex traits using GWAS summary statistics from nine data sources, including the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium, Breast Cancer Association Consortium, and FinnGen Biobank, with validation in the UK Biobank. Our results show that on average, ALL-Sum obtained PRS with 25% higher accuracy on average, with 15 times faster computation and half the memory than the current state-of-the-art methods, and had robust performance across a wide range of traits and diseases. Furthermore, our method demonstrates stable prediction when using linkage disequilibrium computed from different data sources. ALL-Sum is available as a user-friendly R software package with publicly available reference data for streamlined analysis.

Interaction between type 2 diabetes polygenic risk and physical activity on cardiovascular outcomes

AIMS

The beneficial effects of exercise on reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease are established. However, the potential interaction between genetic risk for type 2 diabetes and physical activity on cardiovascular outcomes remains elusive. We aimed to investigate the effect of type 2 diabetes genetic risk-physical activity interaction on cardiovascular outcomes in individuals with diabetes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using the UK Biobank cohort, we investigated the effect of type 2 diabetes genetic risk-physical activity interaction on three-point and four-point major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), in 25 701 diabetic participants. We used a polygenic risk score for type 2 diabetes (PRS_T2D) as a measure of genetic risk for type 2 diabetes. We observed a significant interaction between PRS_T2D and physical activity on cardiovascular outcomes (three-point MACE: P trend for interaction = 0.0081; four-point MACE: P trend for interaction = 0.0037). Among participants whose PRS_T2D was in the first or second quartile, but not in the third or fourth quartile, each 10 metabolic equivalents (METs) hours per week of physical activity decreased the risk of three-point or four-point MACE. Furthermore, restricted cubic spline analysis indicated that intense physical activity (>80 METs hours per week, which was self-reported by 12.7% of participants) increased the risk of cardiovascular outcomes among participants whose PRS_T2D was in the fourth quartile. Sub-group analysis suggested that negative impact of intense physical activity was observed only in non-insulin users.

CONCLUSION

The beneficial effect of physical activity on cardiovascular outcomes disappeared among those with high genetic risk for type 2 diabetes.

Impact of hyperuricemia on CKD risk beyond genetic predisposition in a population-based cohort study

The bidirectional effect of hyperuricemia on chronic kidney disease (CKD) underscores the importance of hyperuricemia as a risk factor for CKD. We evaluated the effect of hyperuricemia on the presence and development of CKD after considering genetic background by calculating polygenic risk scores (PRSs). We employed genome-wide association study summary statistics-excluding the United Kingdom Biobank (UKB) datasets among published CKD Gen Consortium papers-to calculate the PRSs for CKD in white background subjects. To validate PRS performance, we divided the UKB into two datasets to validate and test the data. We used logistic regression analysis to evaluate the association between hyperuricemia and CKD, and performed Kaplan-Meier survival analysis exclusively for subjects with available follow-up data. In total, 438,253 clinical data and 4,307,940 single nucleotide polymorphisms from 459,155 samples were included. We observed a significant positive association between PRS and CKD and the presence and development of CKD. Hyperuricemia significantly increased CKD risk (adjusted odds ratio 1.55, 95% confidence interval 1.48-1.61). The impact of hyperuricemia on CKD was maintained irrespective of PRS range. In addition, negative interaction between hyperuricemia and PRS for CKD was found. Survival analysis indicates that the presence of hyperuricemia significantly increased the risk of CKD development. The PRS for CKD thoroughly reflects the risk of CKD development. Hyperuricemia is a significant indicator of CKD risk, even after incorporating the genetic risk score for CKD. Irrespective of genetic risk, patients with a prospective risk of developing CKD require uric acid monitoring and management.

Integrating polygenic risk scores in the prediction of gestational diabetes risk in China

Background

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) serve as valuable tools for connecting initial genetic discoveries with clinical applications in disease risk estimation. However, limited studies have explored the association between PRS and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), particularly in predicting GDM risk among Chinese populations.

Aim

To evaluate the relationship between PRS and GDM and explore the predictive capability of PRS for GDM risk in a Chinese population.

Methods

A prospective cohort study was conducted, which included 283 GDM and 2,258 non-GDM cases based on demographic information on pregnancies. GDM was diagnosed using the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at 24-28 weeks. The strength of the association between PRS and GDM odds was assessed employing odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) derived from logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic curves, net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were employed to evaluate the improvement in prediction achieved by the new model.

Results

Women who developed GDM exhibited significantly higher PRS compared to control individuals (OR = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.33-3.07). The PRS value remained positively associated with fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 1-hour post-glucose load (1-h OGTT), and 2-hour post-glucose load (2-h OGTT) (all p < 0.05). The incorporation of PRS led to a statistically significant improvement in the area under the curve (0.71, 95% CI: 0.66-0.75, p = 0.024) and improved discrimination and classification (IDI: 0.007, 95% CI: 0.003-0.012, p < 0.001; NRI: 0.258, 95% CI: 0.135-0.382, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

This study highlights the increased odds of GDM associated with higher PRS values and modest improvements in predictive capability for GDM.

Principled distillation of UK Biobank phenotype data reveals underlying structure in human variation

Data within biobanks capture broad yet detailed indices of human variation, but biobank-wide insights can be difficult to extract due to complexity and scale. Here, using large-scale factor analysis, we distill hundreds of variables (diagnoses, assessments and survey items) into 35 latent constructs, using data from unrelated individuals with predominantly estimated European genetic ancestry in UK Biobank. These factors recapitulate known disease classifications, disentangle elements of socioeconomic status, highlight the relevance of psychiatric constructs to health and improve measurement of pro-health behaviours. We go on to demonstrate the power of this approach to clarify genetic signal, enhance discovery and identify associations between underlying phenotypic structure and health outcomes. In building a deeper understanding of ways in which constructs such as socioeconomic status, trauma, or physical activity are structured in the dataset, we emphasize the importance of considering the interwoven nature of the human phenome when evaluating public health patterns.

Pharmacogenomics polygenic risk score: Ready or not for prime time?

Pharmacogenomic Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) have emerged as a tool to address the polygenic nature of pharmacogenetic phenotypes, increasing the potential to predict drug response. Most pharmacogenomic PRS have been extrapolated from disease-associated variants identified by genome wide association studies (GWAS), although some have begun to utilize genetic variants from pharmacogenomic GWAS. As pharmacogenomic PRS hold the promise of enabling precision medicine, including stratified treatment approaches, it is important to assess the opportunities and challenges presented by the current data. This assessment will help determine how pharmacogenomic PRS can be advanced and transitioned into clinical use. In this review, we present a summary of recent evidence, evaluate the current status, and identify several challenges that have impeded the progress of pharmacogenomic PRS. These challenges include the reliance on extrapolations from disease genetics and limitations inherent to pharmacogenomics research such as low sample sizes, phenotyping inconsistencies, among others. We finally propose recommendations to overcome the challenges and facilitate the clinical implementation. These recommendations include standardizing methodologies for phenotyping, enhancing collaborative efforts, developing new statistical methods to capitalize on drug-specific genetic associations for PRS construction. Additional recommendations include enhancing the infrastructure that can integrate genomic data with clinical predictors, along with implementing user-friendly clinical decision tools, and patient education. Ethical and regulatory considerations should address issues related to patient privacy, informed consent and safe use of PRS. Despite these challenges, ongoing research and large-scale collaboration is likely to advance the field and realize the potential of pharmacogenomic PRS.

Enhancing portability of trans-ancestral polygenic risk scores through tissue-specific functional genomic data integration

Portability of trans-ancestral polygenic risk scores is often confounded by differences in linkage disequilibrium and genetic architecture between ancestries. Recent literature has shown that prioritizing GWAS SNPs with functional genomic evidence over strong association signals can improve model portability. We leveraged three RegulomeDB-derived functional regulatory annotations-SURF, TURF, and TLand-to construct polygenic risk models across a set of quantitative and binary traits highlighting functional mutations tagged by trait-associated tissue annotations. Tissue-specific prioritization by TURF and TLand provide a significant improvement in model accuracy over standard polygenic risk score (PRS) models across all traits. We developed the Trans-ancestral Iterative Tissue Refinement (TITR) algorithm to construct PRS models that prioritize functional mutations across multiple trait-implicated tissues. TITR-constructed PRS models show increased predictive accuracy over single tissue prioritization. This indicates our TITR approach captures a more comprehensive view of regulatory systems across implicated tissues that contribute to variance in trait expression.

Polygenic Risk of Mental Disorders and Subject-Specific School Grades

BACKGROUND

Education is essential for socioeconomic security and long-term mental health; however, mental disorders are often detrimental to the educational trajectory. Genetic correlations between mental disorders and educational attainment do not always align with corresponding phenotypic associations, implying heterogeneity in the genetic overlap.

METHODS

We unraveled this heterogeneity by investigating associations between polygenic risk scores for 6 mental disorders and fine-grained school outcomes: school grades in language and mathematics in ninth grade and high school, as well as educational attainment by age 25, using nationwide-representative data from established cohorts (N = 79,489).

RESULTS

High polygenic liability of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder was associated with lower grades in language and mathematics, whereas high polygenic risk of anorexia nervosa or bipolar disorder was associated with higher grades in language and mathematics. Associations between polygenic risk and school grades were mixed for schizophrenia and major depressive disorder and neutral for autism spectrum disorder.

CONCLUSIONS

Polygenic risk scores for mental disorders are differentially associated with language and mathematics school grades.

Polygenic Indices (a.k.a. Polygenic Scores) in Social Science: A Guide for Interpretation and Evaluation

Polygenic indices (PGI)-the new recommended label for polygenic scores (PGS) in social science-are genetic summary scales often used to represent an individual's liability for a disease, trait, or behavior based on the additive effects of measured genetic variants. Enthusiasm for linking genetic data with social outcomes and the inclusion of premade PGIs in social science datasets have facilitated increased uptake of PGIs in social science research-a trend that will likely continue. Yet, most social scientists lack the expertise to interpret and evaluate PGIs in social science research. Here, we provide a primer on PGIs for social scientists focusing on key concepts, unique statistical genetic considerations, and best practices in calculation, estimation, reporting, and interpretation. We summarize our recommended best practices as a checklist to aid social scientists in evaluating and interpreting studies with PGIs. We conclude by discussing the similarities between PGIs and standard social science scales and unique interpretative considerations.

Genetic determinants of obesity in Korean populations: exploring genome-wide associations and polygenic risk scores

East Asian populations exhibit a genetic predisposition to obesity, yet comprehensive research on these traits is limited. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) with 93,673 Korean subjects to uncover novel genetic loci linked to obesity, examining metrics such as body mass index, waist circumference, body fat ratio, and abdominal fat ratio. Participants were categorized into non-obese, metabolically healthy obese (MHO), and metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO) groups. Using advanced computational methods, we developed a multifaceted polygenic risk scores (PRS) model to predict obesity. Our GWAS identified significant genetic effects with distinct sizes and directions within the MHO and MUO groups compared with the non-obese group. Gene-based and gene-set analyses, along with cluster analysis, revealed heterogeneous patterns of significant genes on chromosomes 3 (MUO group) and 11 (MHO group). In analyses targeting genetic predisposition differences based on metabolic health, odds ratios of high PRS compared with medium PRS showed significant differences between non-obese and MUO, and non-obese and MHO. Similar patterns were seen for low PRS compared with medium PRS. These findings were supported by the estimated genetic correlation (0.89 from bivariate GREML). Regional analyses highlighted significant local genetic correlations on chromosome 11, while single variant approaches suggested widespread pleiotropic effects, especially on chromosome 11. In conclusion, our study identifies specific genetic loci and risks associated with obesity in the Korean population, emphasizing the heterogeneous genetic factors contributing to MHO and MUO.

How group structure impacts the numbers at risk for coronary artery disease: polygenic risk scores and nongenetic risk factors in the UK Biobank cohort

The UK Biobank (UKB) is a large cohort study that recruited over 500,000 British participants aged 40-69 in 2006-2010 at 22 assessment centers from across the United Kingdom. Self-reported health outcomes and hospital admission data are 2 types of records that include participants' disease status. Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the most common cause of death in the UKB cohort. After distinguishing between prevalence and incidence CAD events for all UKB participants, we identified geographical variations in age-standardized rates of CAD between assessment centers. Significant distributional differences were found between the pooled cohort equation scores of UKB participants from England and Scotland using the Mann-Whitney test. Polygenic risk scores of UKB participants from England and Scotland and from different assessment centers differed significantly using permutation tests. Our aim was to discriminate between assessment centers with different disease rates by collecting data on disease-related risk factors. However, relying solely on individual-level predictions and averaging them to obtain group-level predictions proved ineffective, particularly due to the presence of correlated covariates resulting from participation bias. By using the Mundlak model, which estimates a random effects regression by including the group means of the independent variables in the model, we effectively addressed these issues. In addition, we designed a simulation experiment to demonstrate the functionality of the Mundlak model. Our findings have applications in public health funding and strategy, as our approach can be used to predict case rates in the future, as both population structure and lifestyle changes are uncertain.

Obesity risk in young adults from the Jerusalem Perinatal Study (JPS): the contribution of polygenic risk and early life exposure

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

The effects of early life exposures on offspring life-course health are well established. This study assessed whether adding early socio-demographic and perinatal variables to a model based on polygenic risk score (PRS) improves prediction of obesity risk.

METHODS

We used the Jerusalem Perinatal study (JPS) with data at birth and body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) measured at age 32. The PRS was constructed using over 2.1M common SNPs identified in genome-wide association study (GWAS) for BMI. Linear and logistic models were applied in a stepwise approach. We first examined the associations between genetic variables and obesity-related phenotypes (e.g., BMI and WC). Secondly, socio-demographic variables were added and finally perinatal exposures, such as maternal pre-pregnancy BMI (mppBMI) and gestational weight gain (GWG) were added to the model. Improvement in prediction of each step was assessed using measures of model discrimination (area under the curve, AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

RESULTS

One standard deviation (SD) change in PRS was associated with a significant increase in BMI (β = 1.40) and WC (β = 2.45). These associations were slightly attenuated (13.7-14.2%) with the addition of early life exposures to the model. Also, higher mppBMI was associated with increased offspring BMI (β = 0.39) and WC (β = 0.79) (p < 0.001). For obesity (BMI ≥ 30) prediction, the addition of early socio-demographic and perinatal exposures to the PRS model significantly increased AUC from 0.69 to 0.73. At an obesity risk threshold of 15%, the addition of early socio-demographic and perinatal exposures to the PRS model provided a significant improvement in reclassification of obesity (NRI, 0.147; 95% CI 0.068-0.225).

CONCLUSIONS

Inclusion of early life exposures, such as mppBMI and maternal smoking, to a model based on PRS improves obesity risk prediction in an Israeli population-sample.

Inflammatory markers in pregnancy - surprisingly stable. Mapping trajectories and drivers in four large cohorts

Adaptations of the immune system throughout gestation have been proposed as important mechanisms regulating successful pregnancy. Dysregulation of the maternal immune system has been associated with adverse maternal and fetal outcomes. To translate findings from mechanistic preclinical studies to human pregnancies, studies of serum immune markers are the mainstay. The design and interpretation of human biomarker studies require additional insights in the trajectories and drivers of peripheral immune markers. The current study mapped maternal inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6, IL-17A, IL-23, interferon- γ ) during pregnancy and investigated the impact of demographic, environmental and genetic drivers on maternal inflammatory marker levels in four multi-ethnic and socio-economically diverse population-based cohorts with more than 12,000 pregnant participants. Additionally, pregnancy inflammatory markers were compared to pre-pregnancy levels. Cytokines showed a high correlation with each other, but not with CRP. Inflammatory marker levels showed high variability between individuals, yet high concordance within an individual over time during and pre-pregnancy. Pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) explained more than 9.6% of the variance in CRP, but less than 1% of the variance in cytokines. The polygenic score of CRP was the best predictor of variance in CRP (>14.1%). Gestational age and previously identified inflammation drivers, including tobacco use and parity, explained less than 1% of variance in both cytokines and CRP. Our findings corroborate differential underlying regulatory mechanisms of CRP and cytokines and are suggestive of an individual inflammatory marker baseline which is, in part, genetically driven. While prior research has mainly focused on immune marker changes throughout pregnancy, our study suggests that this field could benefit from a focus on intra-individual factors, including metabolic and genetic components.

Genomic Insights for Personalized Care: Motivating At-Risk Individuals Toward Evidence-Based Health Practices

Background

Lung cancer and tobacco use pose significant global health challenges, necessitating a comprehensive translational roadmap for improved prevention strategies. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are powerful tools for patient risk stratification but have not yet been widely used in primary care for lung cancer, particularly in diverse patient populations.

Methods

We propose the GREAT care paradigm, which employs PRSs to stratify disease risk and personalize interventions. We developed PRSs using large-scale multi-ancestry genome-wide association studies and standardized PRS distributions across all ancestries. We applied our PRSs to 796 individuals from the GISC Trial, 350,154 from UK Biobank (UKBB), and 210,826 from All of Us Research Program (AoU), totaling 561,776 individuals of diverse ancestry.

Results

Significant odds ratios (ORs) for lung cancer and difficulty quitting smoking were observed in both UKBB and AoU. For lung cancer, the ORs for individuals in the highest risk group (top 20% versus bottom 20%) were 1.85 (95% CI: 1.58 - 2.18) in UKBB and 2.39 (95% CI: 1.93 - 2.97) in AoU. For difficulty quitting smoking, the ORs (top 33% versus bottom 33%) were 1.36 (95% CI: 1.32 - 1.41) in UKBB and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.28 - 1.36) in AoU.

Conclusion

Our PRS-based intervention model leverages large-scale genetic data for robust risk assessment across populations. This model will be evaluated in two cluster-randomized clinical trials aimed at motivating health behavior changes in high-risk patients of diverse ancestry. This pioneering approach integrates genomic insights into primary care, promising improved outcomes in cancer prevention and tobacco treatment.

Conditional frequency spectra as a tool for studying selection on complex traits in biobanks

Natural selection on complex traits is difficult to study in part due to the ascertainment inherent to genome-wide association studies (GWAS). The power to detect a trait-associated variant in GWAS is a function of frequency and effect size - but for traits under selection, the effect size of a variant determines the strength of selection against it, constraining its frequency. To account for GWAS ascertainment, we propose studying the joint distribution of allele frequencies across populations, conditional on the frequencies in the GWAS cohort. Before considering these conditional frequency spectra, we first characterized the impact of selection and non-equilibrium demography on allele frequency dynamics forwards and backwards in time. We then used these results to understand conditional frequency spectra under realistic human demography. Finally, we investigated empirical conditional frequency spectra for GWAS variants associated with 106 complex traits, finding compelling evidence for either stabilizing or purifying selection. Our results provide insight into polygenic score portability and other properties of variants ascertained with GWAS, highlighting the utility of conditional frequency spectra.

Developing an optimal stratification model for colorectal cancer screening and reducing racial disparities in multi-center population-based studies

BACKGROUND

Early detection of colorectal neoplasms can reduce the colorectal cancer (CRC) burden by timely intervention for high-risk individuals. However, effective risk prediction models are lacking for personalized CRC early screening in East Asian (EAS) population. We aimed to develop, validate, and optimize a comprehensive risk prediction model across all stages of the dynamic adenoma-carcinoma sequence in EAS population.

METHODS

To develop precision risk-stratification and intervention strategies, we developed three trans-ancestry PRSs targeting colorectal neoplasms: (1) using 148 previously identified CRC risk loci (PRS148); (2) SNPs selection from large-scale meta-analysis data by clumping and thresholding (PRS183); (3) PRS-CSx, a Bayesian approach for genome-wide risk prediction (PRSGenomewide). Then, the performance of each PRS was assessed and validated in two independent cross-sectional screening sets, including 4600 patients with advanced colorectal neoplasm, 4495 patients with non-advanced adenoma, and 21,199 normal individuals from the ZJCRC (Zhejiang colorectal cancer set; EAS) and PLCO (the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial; European, EUR) studies. The optimal PRS was further incorporated with lifestyle factors to stratify individual risk and ultimately tested in the PLCO and UK Biobank prospective cohorts, totaling 350,013 participants.

RESULTS

Three trans-ancestry PRSs achieved moderately improved predictive performance in EAS compared to EUR populations. Remarkably, the PRSs effectively facilitated a thorough risk assessment across all stages of the dynamic adenoma-carcinoma sequence. Among these models, PRS183 demonstrated the optimal discriminatory ability in both EAS and EUR validation datasets, particularly for individuals at risk of colorectal neoplasms. Using two large-scale and independent prospective cohorts, we further confirmed a significant dose-response effect of PRS183 on incident colorectal neoplasms. Incorporating PRS183 with lifestyle factors into a comprehensive strategy improves risk stratification and discriminatory accuracy compared to using PRS or lifestyle factors separately. This comprehensive risk-stratified model shows potential in addressing missed diagnoses in screening tests (best NPV = 0.93), while moderately reducing unnecessary screening (best PPV = 0.32).

CONCLUSIONS

Our comprehensive risk-stratified model in population-based CRC screening trials represents a promising advancement in personalized risk assessment, facilitating tailored CRC screening in the EAS population. This approach enhances the transferability of PRSs across ancestries and thereby helps address health disparity.

How do lifestyle factors modify the association between genetic predisposition and obesity-related phenotypes? A 4-way decomposition analysis using UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Obesity and central obesity are multifactorial conditions with genetic and non-genetic (lifestyle and environmental) contributions. There is incomplete understanding of whether lifestyle modifies the translation from respective genetic risks into phenotypic obesity and central obesity, and to what extent genetic predisposition to obesity and central obesity is mediated via lifestyle factors.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional study of 201,466 (out of approximately 502,000) European participants from UK Biobank and tested for interactions and mediation role of lifestyle factors (diet quality; physical activity levels; total energy intake; sleep duration, and smoking and alcohol intake) between genetic risk for obesity and central obesity. BMI-PRS and WHR-PRS are exposures and obesity and central obesity are outcomes.

RESULTS

Overall, 42.8% of the association between genetic predisposition to obesity and phenotypic obesity was explained by lifestyle: 0.9% by mediation and 41.9% by effect modification. A significant difference between men and women was found in central obesity; the figures were 42.1% (association explained by lifestyle), 1.4% (by mediation), and 40.7% (by modification) in women and 69.6% (association explained by lifestyle), 3.0% (by mediation), and 66.6% (by modification) in men.

CONCLUSIONS

A substantial proportion of the association between genetic predisposition to obesity/central obesity and phenotypic obesity/central obesity was explained by lifestyles. Future studies with repeated measures of obesity and lifestyle would be needed to clarify causation.

Genome wide association study and genomic risk prediction of age related macular degeneration in Israel

The risk of developing age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is influenced by genetic background. In 2016, the International AMD Genomics Consortium (IAMDGC) identified 52 risk variants in 34 loci, and a polygenic risk score (PRS) from these variants was associated with AMD. The Israeli population has a unique genetic composition: Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ), Jewish non-Ashkenazi, and Arab sub-populations. We aimed to perform a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for AMD in Israel, and to evaluate PRSs for AMD. Our discovery set recruited 403 AMD patients and 256 controls at Hadassah Medical Center. We genotyped individuals via custom exome chip. We imputed non-typed variants using cosmopolitan and AJ reference panels. We recruited additional 155 cases and 69 controls for validation. To evaluate predictive power of PRSs for AMD, we used IAMDGC summary-statistics excluding our study and developed PRSs via clumping/thresholding or LDpred2. In our discovery set, 31/34 loci reported by IAMDGC were AMD-associated (P < 0.05). Of those, all effects were directionally consistent with IAMDGC and 11 loci had a P-value under Bonferroni-corrected threshold (0.05/34 = 0.0015). At a 5 × 10-5 threshold, we discovered four suggestive associations in FAM189A1, IGDCC4, C7orf50, and CNTNAP4. Only the FAM189A1 variant was AMD-associated in the replication cohort after Bonferroni-correction. A prediction model including LDpred2-based PRS + covariates had an AUC of 0.82 (95% CI 0.79-0.85) and performed better than covariates-only model (P = 5.1 × 10-9). Therefore, previously reported AMD-associated loci were nominally associated with AMD in Israel. A PRS developed based on a large international study is predictive in Israeli populations.

Polygenic liability for antipsychotic dosage and polypharmacy - a real-world registry and biobank study

Genomic prediction of antipsychotic dose and polypharmacy has been difficult, mainly due to limited access to large cohorts with genetic and drug prescription data. In this proof of principle study, we investigated if genetic liability for schizophrenia is associated with high dose requirements of antipsychotics and antipsychotic polypharmacy, using real-world registry and biobank data from five independent Nordic cohorts of a total of N = 21,572 individuals with psychotic disorders (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and other psychosis). Within regression models, a polygenic risk score (PRS) for schizophrenia was studied in relation to standardized antipsychotic dose as well as antipsychotic polypharmacy, defined based on longitudinal prescription registry data as well as health records and self-reported data. Meta-analyses across the five cohorts showed that PRS for schizophrenia was significantly positively associated with prescribed (standardized) antipsychotic dose (beta(SE) = 0.0435(0.009), p = 0.0006) and antipsychotic polypharmacy defined as taking ≥2 antipsychotics (OR = 1.10, CI = 1.05-1.21, p = 0.0073). The direction of effect was similar in all five independent cohorts. These findings indicate that genotypes may aid clinically relevant decisions on individual patients´ antipsychotic treatment. Further, the findings illustrate how real-world data have the potential to generate results needed for future precision medicine approaches in psychiatry.

Using Polygenic Scores for Circadian Rhythms to Predict Wellbeing, Depressive Symptoms, Chronotype, and Health

The association between circadian rhythms and diseases has been well established, while the association with mental health is less explored. Given the heritable nature of circadian rhythms, this study aimed to investigate the relationship between genes underlying circadian rhythms and mental health outcomes, as well as a possible gene-environment correlation for circadian rhythms. Polygenic scores (PGSs) represent the genetic predisposition to develop a certain trait or disease. In a sample from the Netherlands Twin Register (N = 14,021), PGSs were calculated for two circadian rhythm measures: morningness and relative amplitude (RA). The PGSs were used to predict mental health outcomes such as subjective happiness, quality of life, and depressive symptoms. In addition, we performed the same prediction analysis in a within-family design in a subset of dizygotic twins. The PGS for morningness significantly predicted morningness (R2 = 1.55%) and depressive symptoms (R2 = 0.22%). The PGS for RA significantly predicted general health (R2 = 0.12%) and depressive symptoms (R2 = 0.20%). Item analysis of the depressive symptoms showed that 4 out of 14 items were significantly associated with the PGSs. Overall, the results showed that people with a genetic predisposition of being a morning person or with a high RA are likely to have fewer depressive symptoms. The four associated depressive symptoms described symptoms related to decision-making, energy, and feeling worthless or inferior, rather than sleep. Based on our findings future research should include a substantial role for circadian rhythms in depression research and should further explore the gene-environment correlation in circadian rhythms.

A polygenic score method boosted by non-additive models

Dominance heritability in complex traits has received increasing recognition. However, most polygenic score (PGS) approaches do not incorporate non-additive effects. Here, we present GenoBoost, a flexible PGS modeling framework capable of considering both additive and non-additive effects, specifically focusing on genetic dominance. Building on statistical boosting theory, we derive provably optimal GenoBoost scores and provide its efficient implementation for analyzing large-scale cohorts. We benchmark it against seven commonly used PGS methods and demonstrate its competitive predictive performance. GenoBoost is ranked the best for four traits and second-best for three traits among twelve tested disease outcomes in UK Biobank. We reveal that GenoBoost improves prediction for autoimmune diseases by incorporating non-additive effects localized in the MHC locus and, more broadly, works best in less polygenic traits. We further demonstrate that GenoBoost can infer the mode of genetic inheritance without requiring prior knowledge. For example, GenoBoost finds non-zero genetic dominance effects for 602 of 900 selected genetic variants, resulting in 2.5% improvements in predicting psoriasis cases. Lastly, we show that GenoBoost can prioritize genetic loci with genetic dominance not previously reported in the GWAS catalog. Our results highlight the increased accuracy and biological insights from incorporating non-additive effects in PGS models.

Integration of a polygenic score into guideline-recommended prediction of cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

It is not clear how a polygenic risk score (PRS) can be best combined with guideline-recommended tools for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, e.g. SCORE2.

METHODS

A PRS for coronary artery disease (CAD) was calculated in participants of UK Biobank (n = 432 981). Within each tenth of the PRS distribution, the odds ratios (ORs)-referred to as PRS-factor-for CVD (i.e. CAD or stroke) were compared between the entire population and subgroups representing the spectrum of clinical risk. Replication was performed in the combined Framingham/Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) populations (n = 10 757). The clinical suitability of a multiplicative model 'SCORE2 × PRS-factor' was tested by risk reclassification.

RESULTS

In subgroups with highly different clinical risks, CVD ORs were stable within each PRS tenth. SCORE2 and PRS showed no significant interactive effects on CVD risk, which qualified them as multiplicative factors: SCORE2 × PRS-factor = total risk. In UK Biobank, the multiplicative model moved 9.55% of the intermediate (n = 145 337) to high-risk group increasing the individuals in this category by 56.6%. Incident CVD occurred in 8.08% of individuals reclassified by the PRS-factor from intermediate to high risk, which was about two-fold of those remained at intermediate risk (4.08%). Likewise, the PRS-factor shifted 8.29% of individuals from moderate to high risk in Framingham/ARIC.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that absolute CVD risk, determined by a clinical risk score, and relative genetic risk, determined by a PRS, provide independent information. The two components may form a simple multiplicative model improving precision of guideline-recommended tools in predicting incident CVD.

Biobank-wide association scan identifies risk factors for late-onset Alzheimer's disease and endophenotypes

Rich data from large biobanks, coupled with increasingly accessible association statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), provide great opportunities to dissect the complex relationships among human traits and diseases. We introduce BADGERS, a powerful method to perform polygenic score-based biobank-wide association scans. Compared to traditional approaches, BADGERS uses GWAS summary statistics as input and does not require multiple traits to be measured in the same cohort. We applied BADGERS to two independent datasets for late-onset Alzheimer's disease (AD; n=61,212). Among 1738 traits in the UK biobank, we identified 48 significant associations for AD. Family history, high cholesterol, and numerous traits related to intelligence and education showed strong and independent associations with AD. Furthermore, we identified 41 significant associations for a variety of AD endophenotypes. While family history and high cholesterol were strongly associated with AD subgroups and pathologies, only intelligence and education-related traits predicted pre-clinical cognitive phenotypes. These results provide novel insights into the distinct biological processes underlying various risk factors for AD.

Stacked neural network for predicting polygenic risk score

In recent years, the utility of polygenic risk scores (PRS) in forecasting disease susceptibility from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) results has been widely recognised. Yet, these models face limitations due to overfitting and the potential overestimation of effect sizes in correlated variants. To surmount these obstacles, we devised the Stacked Neural Network Polygenic Risk Score (SNPRS). This novel approach synthesises outputs from multiple neural network models, each calibrated using genetic variants chosen based on diverse p-value thresholds. By doing so, SNPRS captures a broader array of genetic variants, enabling a more nuanced interpretation of the combined effects of these variants. We assessed the efficacy of SNPRS using the UK Biobank data, focusing on the genetic risks associated with breast and prostate cancers, as well as quantitative traits like height and BMI. We also extended our analysis to the Korea Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES) dataset. Impressively, our results indicate that SNPRS surpasses traditional PRS models and an isolated deep neural network in terms of accuracy, highlighting its promise in refining the efficacy and relevance of PRS in genetic studies.

Genome-wide investigation of persistence with methotrexate treatment in early rheumatoid arthritis

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the influence of genetic factors on persistence with treatment of early RA with MTX monotherapy.

METHODS

We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in a sample of 3902 Swedish early-RA patients initiating MTX in DMARD monotherapy as their first-ever DMARD. The outcome, short- and long-term MTX treatment persistence, was defined as remaining on MTX at 1 and at 3 years, respectively, with no additional DMARDs added. As genetic predictors, we investigated individual SNPs, and then calculated a polygenic risk score (PRS) based on SNPs associated with RA risk. The SNP-based heritability of persistence was estimated overall and by RA serostatus.

RESULTS

No individual SNP reached genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8), either for persistence at 1 year or at 3 years. The RA PRS was not significantly associated with MTX treatment persistence at 1 year [relative risk (RR) = 0.98 (0.96-1.01)] or at 3 years [RR = 0.96 (0.93-1.00)]. The heritability of MTX treatment persistence was estimated to be 0.45 (0.15-0.75) at 1 year and 0.14 (0-0.40) at 3 years. The results in seropositive RA were comparable with those in the analysis of RA overall, while heritability estimates and PRS RRs were attenuated towards the null in seronegative RA.

CONCLUSION

Despite being the largest GWAS on an MTX treatment outcome to date, no genome-wide significant associations were detected. The modest heritability observed, coupled with the broad spread of suggestively associated loci, indicate that genetic influence is of polygenic nature. Nevertheless, MTX monotherapy persistence was lower in patients with a greater genetic disposition, per the PRS, towards RA.

Cross-ancestry genetic architecture and prediction for cholesterol traits

While cholesterol is essential, a high level of cholesterol is associated with the risk of cardiovascular diseases. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have proven successful in identifying genetic variants that are linked to cholesterol levels, predominantly in white European populations. However, the extent to which genetic effects on cholesterol vary across different ancestries remains largely unexplored. Here, we estimate cross-ancestry genetic correlation to address questions on how genetic effects are shared across ancestries. We find significant genetic heterogeneity between ancestries for cholesterol traits. Furthermore, we demonstrate that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with concordant effects across ancestries for cholesterol are more frequently found in regulatory regions compared to other genomic regions. Indeed, the positive genetic covariance between ancestries is mostly driven by the effects of the concordant SNPs, whereas the genetic heterogeneity is attributed to the discordant SNPs. We also show that the predictive ability of the concordant SNPs is significantly higher than the discordant SNPs in the cross-ancestry polygenic prediction. The list of concordant SNPs for cholesterol is available in GWAS Catalog. These findings have relevance for the understanding of shared genetic architecture across ancestries, contributing to the development of clinical strategies for polygenic prediction of cholesterol in cross-ancestral settings.