Polygenic Risk Scores for Prediction of Breast Cancer and Breast Cancer Subtypes

The clinical relevance of a polygenic risk score for type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Korean population

The clinical utility of a type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) polygenic risk score (PRS) in the East Asian population remains underexplored. We aimed to examine the potential prognostic value of a T2DM PRS and assess its viability as a clinical instrument. We first established a T2DM PRS for 5490 Korean individuals using East Asian Biobank data (269,487 samples). Subsequently, we assessed the predictive capability of this T2DM PRS in a prospective longitudinal study with baseline data and data from seven additional follow-ups. Our analysis showed that the T2DM PRS could predict the transition of glucose tolerance stages from normal glucose tolerance to prediabetes and from prediabetes to T2DM. Moreover, T2DM patients in the top-decile PRS group were more likely to be treated with insulin (hazard ratio = 1.69, p value = 2.31E-02) than were those in the remaining PRS groups. T2DM PRS values were significantly high in the severe diabetes subgroup, characterized by insulin resistance and β -cell dysfunction (p value = 0.0012). The prediction models with the T2DM PRS had significantly greater Harrel's C-indices than did corresponding models without it. By utilizing prospective longitudinal study data and extensive clinical risk factor information, our analysis provides valuable insights into the multifaceted clinical utility of the T2DM PRS.

Development and evaluation of a polygenic risk score for lung cancer in never-smoking women: A large-scale prospective Chinese cohort study

The proportion of lung cancer in never smokers is rising, especially among Asian women, but there is no effective early detection tool. Here, we developed a polygenic risk score (PRS), which may help to identify the population with higher risk of lung cancer in never-smoking women. We first performed a large GWAS meta-analysis (8595 cases and 8275 controls) to systematically identify the susceptibility loci for lung cancer in never-smoking Asian women and then generated a PRS using GWAS datasets. Furthermore, we evaluated the utility and effectiveness of PRS in an independent Chinese prospective cohort comprising 55 266 individuals. The GWAS meta-analysis identified eight known loci and a novel locus (5q11.2) at the genome-wide statistical significance level of P < 5 × 10-8 . Based on the summary statistics of GWAS, we derived a polygenic risk score including 21 variants (PRS-21) for lung cancer in never-smoking women. Furthermore, PRS-21 had a hazard ratio (HR) per SD of 1.29 (95% CI = 1.18-1.41) in the prospective cohort. Compared with participants who had a low genetic risk, those with an intermediate (HR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.00-1.72) and high (HR = 2.09, 95% CI: 1.56-2.80) genetic risk had a significantly higher risk of incident lung cancer. The addition of PRS-21 to the conventional risk model yielded a modest significant improvement in AUC (0.697 to 0.711) and net reclassification improvement (24.2%). The GWAS-derived PRS-21 significantly improves the risk stratification and prediction accuracy for incident lung cancer in never-smoking Asian women, demonstrating the potential for identification of high-risk individuals and early screening.

The impact of circulating protein levels identified by affinity proteomics on short-term, overall breast cancer risk

OBJECTIVE

Current breast cancer risk prediction scores and algorithms can potentially be further improved by including molecular markers. To this end, we studied the association of circulating plasma proteins using Proximity Extension Assay (PEA) with incident breast cancer risk.

SUBJECTS

In this study, we included 1577 women participating in the prospective KARMA mammographic screening cohort.

RESULTS

In a targeted panel of 164 proteins, we found 8 candidates nominally significantly associated with short-term breast cancer risk (P < 0.05). Similarly, in an exploratory panel consisting of 2204 proteins, 115 were found nominally significantly associated (P < 0.05). However, none of the identified protein levels remained significant after adjustment for multiple testing. This lack of statistically significant findings was not due to limited power, but attributable to the small effect sizes observed even for nominally significant proteins. Similarly, adding plasma protein levels to established risk factors did not improve breast cancer risk prediction accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that the levels of the studied plasma proteins captured by the PEA method are unlikely to offer additional benefits for risk prediction of short-term overall breast cancer risk but could provide interesting insights into the biological basis of breast cancer in the future.

Polygenic risk scores, radiation treatment exposures and subsequent cancer risk in childhood cancer survivors

Survivors of childhood cancer are at increased risk for subsequent cancers attributable to the late effects of radiotherapy and other treatment exposures; thus, further understanding of the impact of genetic predisposition on risk is needed. Combining genotype data for 11,220 5-year survivors from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and the St Jude Lifetime Cohort, we found that cancer-specific polygenic risk scores (PRSs) derived from general population, genome-wide association study, cancer loci identified survivors of European ancestry at increased risk of subsequent basal cell carcinoma (odds ratio per s.d. of the PRS: OR = 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.29-1.46), female breast cancer (OR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.27-1.58), thyroid cancer (OR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.31-1.67), squamous cell carcinoma (OR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.00-1.44) and melanoma (OR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.31-1.96); however, the association for colorectal cancer was not significant (OR = 1.19, 95% CI = 0.94-1.52). An investigation of joint associations between PRSs and radiotherapy found more than additive increased risks of basal cell carcinoma, and breast and thyroid cancers. For survivors with radiotherapy exposure, the cumulative incidence of subsequent cancer by age 50 years was increased for those with high versus low PRS. These findings suggest a degree of shared genetic etiology for these malignancy types in the general population and survivors, which remains evident in the context of strong radiotherapy-related risk.

The interaction of diet, alcohol, genetic predisposition, and the risk of breast cancer: a cohort study from the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Dietary factors have consistently been associated with breast cancer risk. However, there is limited evidence regarding their associations in women with different genetic susceptibility to breast cancer, and their interaction with alcohol consumption is also not well understood.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 261,853 female participants in the UK Biobank. Multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between dietary factors and breast cancer risk. Additionally, we assessed the interaction of dietary factors with alcohol consumption and polygenic risk score (PRS) for breast cancer.

RESULTS

A moderately higher risk of breast cancer was associated with the consumption of processed meat (HR = 1.10, 95% CI 1.03, 1.18, p-trend = 0.016). Higher intake of raw vegetables and fresh fruits, and adherence to a healthy dietary pattern were inversely associated with breast cancer risk [HR (95% CI):0.93 (0.88-0.99), 0.87 (0.81, 0.93) and 0.93 (0.86-1.00), p for trend: 0.025, < 0.001, and 0.041, respectively]. Furthermore, a borderline significant interaction was found between alcohol consumption and the intake of processed meat with regard to breast cancer risk (P for interaction = 0.065). No multiplicative interaction was observed between dietary factors and PRS.

CONCLUSION

Processed meat was positively associated with breast cancer risk, and vegetables, fruits, and healthy dietary patterns were negatively associated with breast cancer risk. We found no strong interaction of dietary factors with alcohol consumption and genetic predisposition for risk of breast cancer.

[News in breast oncology genetics for female and male population]

OBJECTIVES

Breast oncology genetics emerged almost 30 years ago with the discovery of the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes. The evolution of analytical practices has progressively allowed access to tests whose results now have a considerable impact on the management of both female and male breast cancers. The Sénologie commission of the Collège national des gynécologues et obstétriciens français (CNGOF) asked five specialists in breast surgery, oncology and oncological genetics to draw up a summary of the oncogenetic testing criteria used and the clinical implications for the female and male population of the test results, with or without an identified causal variant. In the case of proven genetic risk, surveillance, risk-reduction strategies, and the specificities of surgical and medical management (with PARP inhibitors in particular) were updated.

METHODS

This summary was based on national and international guidelines on the monitoring and therapeutic management of genetic risk, and a recent review of the literature covering the last five years.

RESULTS

Despite successive technical developments, the probability of identifying a causal variant in a situation suggestive of a predisposition to breast and ovarian cancer remains around 10% in France. The risk of breast cancer in women with a causal variant of the BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, TP53, CDH1 and PTEN genes is estimated at between 35% and 85% at age 70. The presence of a causal variant in one of these genes is the subject of different recommendations for men and women, concerning both surveillance, the age of onset and imaging modalities of which vary according to the genes involved, and risk-reduction surgery, which is possible for women as soon as their risk level exceeds 30% and remains exceptionally indicated for men. In the case of breast cancer, PARP inhibitors are a promising new class of treatment for BRCA germline mutations.

CONCLUSION

A discipline resolutely focused on understanding molecular mechanisms, screening and preventive medicine/surgery, oncology genetics is currently also involved in new medical/surgical approaches, the long-term benefits/risks of which will need to be monitored.

Polygenic risk score comparator (PRScomp): Test population vs. worldwide populations

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are a powerful tool for predicting an individual's genetic risk for complex diseases.

METHODS

We have developed a web service (PRScomp) as a user-friendly tool to evaluate PRS of the user own population and compare it with worldwide populations.

RESULTS

A disease/trait database has been constructed from GWAS Catalog summary statistics. Genotype data of test population is uploaded and merged with the reference dataset (1000 Genome Project and Human Genome Diversity Project) to obtain a file including the common SNPs. The user can select a disease/trait from the database and a curated set of risk markers is used to calculate summatory PRS. Distribution of z-scored PRS values is presented in publication-ready plots and text files that can be downloaded.

DISCUSSION

PRScomp can be useful for public health decision-making by identifying population-specific genetic risk factors and informing the development of targeted interventions for at-risk populations.

Differences in polygenic score distributions in European ancestry populations: implications for breast cancer risk prediction

The 313-variant polygenic risk score (PRS313) provides a promising tool for breast cancer risk prediction. However, evaluation of the PRS313 across different European populations which could influence risk estimation has not been performed. Here, we explored the distribution of PRS313 across European populations using genotype data from 94,072 females without breast cancer, of European-ancestry from 21 countries participating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) and 225,105 female participants from the UK Biobank. The mean PRS313 differed markedly across European countries, being highest in south-eastern Europe and lowest in north-western Europe. Using the overall European PRS313 distribution to categorise individuals leads to overestimation and underestimation of risk in some individuals from south-eastern and north-western countries, respectively. Adjustment for principal components explained most of the observed heterogeneity in mean PRS. Country-specific PRS distributions may be used to calibrate risk categories in individuals from different countries.

Genetic Basis of Breast and Ovarian Cancer: Approaches and Lessons Learnt from Three Decades of Inherited Predisposition Testing

Germline variants occurring in BRCA1 and BRCA2 give rise to hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) syndrome, predisposing to breast, ovarian, fallopian tube, and peritoneal cancers marked by elevated incidences of genomic aberrations that correspond to poor prognoses. These genes are in fact involved in genetic integrity, particularly in the process of homologous recombination (HR) DNA repair, a high-fidelity repair system for mending DNA double-strand breaks. In addition to its implication in HBOC pathogenesis, the impairment of HR has become a prime target for therapeutic intervention utilizing poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitors. In the present review, we introduce the molecular roles of HR orchestrated by BRCA1 and BRCA2 within the framework of sensitivity to PARP inhibitors. We examine the genetic architecture underneath breast and ovarian cancer ranging from high- and mid- to low-penetrant predisposing genes and taking into account both germline and somatic variations. Finally, we consider higher levels of complexity of the genomic landscape such as polygenic risk scores and other approaches aiming to optimize therapeutic and preventive strategies for breast and ovarian cancer.

A Stacking Framework for Polygenic Risk Prediction in Admixed Individuals

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are summaries of an individual's personalized genetic risk for a trait or disease. However, PRS often perform poorly for phenotype prediction when the ancestry of the target population does not match the population in which GWAS effect sizes were estimated. For many populations this can be addressed by performing GWAS in the target population. However, admixed individuals (whose genomes can be traced to multiple ancestral populations) lie on an ancestry continuum and are not easily represented as a discrete population. Here, we propose slaPRS (stacking local ancestry PRS), which incorporates multiple ancestry GWAS to alleviate the ancestry dependence of PRS in admixed samples. slaPRS uses ensemble learning (stacking) to combine local population specific PRS in regions across the genome. We compare slaPRS to single population PRS and a method that combines single population PRS globally. In simulations, slaPRS outperformed existing approaches and reduced the ancestry dependence of PRS in African Americans. In lipid traits from African British individuals (UK Biobank), slaPRS again improved on single population PRS while performing comparably to the globally combined PRS. slaPRS provides a data-driven and flexible framework to incorporate multiple population-specific GWAS and local ancestry in samples of admixed ancestry.

Breast Cancer Polygenic-Risk Score Influence on Risk-Reducing Endocrine Therapy Use: Genetic Risk Estimate (GENRE) Trial 1-Year and 2-Year Follow-Up

Refinement of breast cancer risk estimates with a polygenic-risk score (PRS) may improve uptake of risk-reducing endocrine therapy (ET). A previous clinical trial assessed the influence of adding a PRS to traditional risk estimates on ET use. We stratified participants according to PRS-refined breast cancer risk and evaluated ET use and ET-related quality of life (QOL) at 1-year (previously reported) and 2-year follow-ups. Of 151 participants, 58 (38.4%) initiated ET, and 22 (14.6%) discontinued ET by 2 years; 42 (27.8%) and 36 (23.8%) participants were using ET at 1- and 2-year follow-ups, respectively. At the 2-year follow-up, 39% of participants with a lifetime breast cancer risk of 40.1% to 100.0%, 18% with a 20.1% to 40.0% risk, and 16% with a 0.0% to 20.0% risk were taking ET (overall P = 0.01). Moreover, 40% of participants whose breast cancer risk increased by 10% or greater with addition of the PRS to a traditional breast cancer-risk model were taking ET versus 0% whose risk decreased by 10% or greater (P = 0.004). QOL was similar for participants taking or not taking ET at 1- and 2-year follow-ups, although most who discontinued ET did so because of adverse effects. However, these QOL results may have been skewed by the long interval between QOL surveys and lack of baseline QOL data. PRS-informed breast cancer prevention counseling has a lasting, but waning, effect over time. Additional follow-up studies are needed to address the effect of PRS on ET adherence, ET-related QOL, supplemental breast cancer screening, and other risk-reducing behaviors.

PREVENTION RELEVANCE

Risk-reducing medications for breast cancer are considerably underused. Informing women at risk with precise and individualized risk assessment tools may substantially affect the incidence of breast cancer. In our study, a risk assessment tool (IBIS-polygenic-risk score) yielded promising results, with 39% of women at highest risk starting preventive medication.

The benefit of adding polygenic risk scores, lifestyle factors, and breast density to family history and genetic status for breast cancer risk and surveillance classification of unaffected women from germline CHEK2 c.1100delC families

To determine the changes in surveillance category by adding a polygenic risk score based on 311 breast cancer (BC)-associated variants (PRS311), questionnaire-based risk factors and breast density on personalized BC risk in unaffected women from Dutch CHEK2 c.1100delC families. In total, 117 unaffected women (58 heterozygotes and 59 non-carriers) from CHEK2 families were included. Blood-derived DNA samples were genotyped with the GSAMDv3-array to determine PRS311. Lifetime BC risk was calculated in CanRisk, which uses data from the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA). Women, were categorized into three surveillance groups. The surveillance advice was reclassified in 37.9 % of heterozygotes and 32.2 % of non-carriers after adding PRS311. Including questionnaire-based risk factors resulted in an additional change in 20.0 % of heterozygotes and 13.2 % of non-carriers; and a subanalysis showed that adding breast density on top shifted another 17.9 % of heterozygotes and 33.3 % of non-carriers. Overall, the majority of heterozygotes were reclassified to a less intensive surveillance, while non-carriers would require intensified surveillance. The addition of PRS311, questionnaire-based risk factors and breast density to family history resulted in a more personalized BC surveillance advice in CHEK2-families, which may lead to more efficient use of surveillance.

Developmental genetic effects on externalizing behavior and alcohol use: Examination across two longitudinal samples

Externalizing behavior in early adolescence is associated with alcohol use in adolescence and early adulthood and these behaviors often emerge as part of a developmental sequence. This pattern can be the result of heterotypic continuity, in which different behaviors emerge over time based on an underlying shared etiology. In particular, there is largely a shared genetic etiology underlying externalizing and substance use behaviors. We examined whether polygenic risk for alcohol use disorder predicted (1) externalizing behavior in early adolescence and alcohol use in adolescence in the Early Steps Multisite sample and (2) externalizing behavior in adolescence and alcohol use in early adulthood in the Project Alliance 1 (PAL1) sample. We examined associations separately for African Americans and European Americans. When examining European Americans in the Early Steps sample, greater polygenic risk was associated with externalizing behavior in early adolescence. In European Americans in PAL1, we found greater polygenic risk was associated with alcohol use in early adulthood. Effects were largely absent in African Americans in both samples. Results imply that genetic predisposition for alcohol use disorder may increase risk for externalizing and alcohol use as these behaviors emerge developmentally.

The Potential of Genetics in Identifying Women at Lower Risk of Breast Cancer

Importance

Genetic information is not being used to identify women at lower risk of breast cancer or other diseases in clinical practice. With the new US Preventive Services Task Force guidelines lowering the age for mammogram screening for all, there is a potential benefit in identifying women at lower risk of disease who may defer the start of mammographic screening. This genetic risk-based approach would help mitigate overscreening, associated costs, and anxiety.

Objective

To assess breast cancer incidence and age of onset among women at low genetic risk compared with women at average risk and evaluate the potential to delay mammography on the basis of genetic risk stratification.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective case-control study included 25 591 women from the Healthy Nevada Project sequenced by Helix between 2018 and 2022. Data extracted from electronic health records at the end of 2022 (mean length of electronic health record available was 12 years) were used for the analysis in 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Breast cancer diagnosis was identified from electronic health records. Classification to the low-risk genetic group required (1) the absence of pathogenic variants or a variant of uncertain significance in BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, ATM, or CHEK2, and (2) a low polygenic risk score (bottom 10%) using a 313-single-nucleotide variant model.

Results

Of 25 591 women in the study (mean [SD] age was 53.8 [16.9] years), 2338 women (9.1%) were classified as having low risk for breast cancer; 410 women (1.6%) were classified as high risk; and 22 843 women (89.3%) as average risk. There was a significant reduction in breast cancer diagnosis among the low-risk group (hazard ratio, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.29-0.52; P < .001). By 45 years of age, 0.69% of women in the average-risk group were diagnosed with breast cancer, whereas women in the low-risk group reached this rate at 51 years. By 50 years of age, 1.41% of those in the average-risk group were diagnosed with breast cancer, whereas those in the low-risk group reached this rate at age 58 years. These findings suggest that deferring mammogram screening by 5 to 10 years for women at low risk of breast cancer aligns with new draft recommendations.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this retrospective case-control study underscore the value of genetics in individualizing the onset of breast cancer screening. Improving breast cancer risk stratification by implementing both high-risk and low-risk strategies in screening can refine preventive measures and optimize health care resource allocation.

Gender-Specific Genetic Predisposition to Breast Cancer: BRCA Genes and Beyond

Among neoplastic diseases, breast cancer (BC) is one of the most influenced by gender. Despite common misconceptions associating BC as a women-only disease, BC can also occur in men. Additionally, transgender individuals may also experience BC. Genetic risk factors play a relevant role in BC predisposition, with important implications in precision prevention and treatment. The genetic architecture of BC susceptibility is similar in women and men, with high-, moderate-, and low-penetrance risk variants; however, some sex-specific features have emerged. Inherited high-penetrance pathogenic variants (PVs) in BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes are the strongest BC genetic risk factor. BRCA1 and BRCA2 PVs are more commonly associated with increased risk of female and male BC, respectively. Notably, BRCA-associated BCs are characterized by sex-specific pathologic features. Recently, next-generation sequencing technologies have helped to provide more insights on the role of moderate-penetrance BC risk variants, particularly in PALB2, CHEK2, and ATM genes, while international collaborative genome-wide association studies have contributed evidence on common low-penetrance BC risk variants, on their combined effect in polygenic models, and on their role as risk modulators in BRCA1/2 PV carriers. Overall, all these studies suggested that the genetic basis of male BC, although similar, may differ from female BC. Evaluating the genetic component of male BC as a distinct entity from female BC is the first step to improve both personalized risk assessment and therapeutic choices of patients of both sexes in order to reach gender equality in BC care. In this review, we summarize the latest research in the field of BC genetic predisposition with a particular focus on similarities and differences in male and female BC, and we also discuss the implications, challenges, and open issues that surround the establishment of a gender-oriented clinical management for BC.

Pharmacogenomics Beyond Single Common Genetic Variants: The Way Forward

Interindividual variability in genes encoding drug-metabolizing enzymes, transporters, receptors, and human leukocyte antigens has a major impact on a patient's response to drugs with regard to efficacy and safety. Enabled by both technological and conceptual advances, the field of pharmacogenomics is developing rapidly. Major progress in omics profiling methods has enabled novel genotypic and phenotypic characterization of patients and biobanks. These developments are paralleled by advances in machine learning, which have allowed us to parse the immense wealth of data and establish novel genetic markers and polygenic models for drug selection and dosing. Pharmacogenomics has recently become more widespread in clinical practice to personalize treatment and to develop new drugs tailored to specific patient populations. In this review, we provide an overview of the latest developments in the field and discuss the way forward, including how to address the missing heritability, develop novel polygenic models, and further improve the clinical implementation of pharmacogenomics.

A genome-wide association study of contralateral breast cancer in the Women's Environmental Cancer and Radiation Epidemiology Study

BACKGROUND

Contralateral breast cancer (CBC) is the most common second primary cancer diagnosed in breast cancer survivors, yet the understanding of the genetic susceptibility of CBC, particularly with respect to common variants, remains incomplete. This study aimed to investigate the genetic basis of CBC to better understand this malignancy.

FINDINGS

We performed a genome-wide association analysis in the Women's Environmental Cancer and Radiation Epidemiology (WECARE) Study of women with first breast cancer diagnosed at age < 55 years including 1161 with CBC who served as cases and 1668 with unilateral breast cancer (UBC) who served as controls. We observed two loci (rs59657211, 9q32, SLC31A2/FAM225A and rs3815096, 6p22.1, TRIM31) with suggestive genome-wide significant associations (P < 1 × 10-6). We also found an increased risk of CBC associated with a breast cancer-specific polygenic risk score (PRS) comprised of 239 known breast cancer susceptibility single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (rate ratio per 1-SD change: 1.25; 95% confidence interval 1.14-1.36, P < 0.0001). The protective effect of chemotherapy on CBC risk was statistically significant only among patients with an elevated PRS (Pheterogeneity = 0.04). The AUC that included the PRS and known breast cancer risk factors was significantly elevated.

CONCLUSIONS

The present GWAS identified two previously unreported loci with suggestive genome-wide significance. We also confirm that an elevated risk of CBC is associated with a comprehensive breast cancer susceptibility PRS that is independent of known breast cancer risk factors. These findings advance our understanding of genetic risk factors involved in CBC etiology.

Integrating a Polygenic Risk Score into a clinical setting would impact risk predictions in familial breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Low-impact genetic variants identified in population-based genetic studies are not routinely measured as part of clinical genetic testing in familial breast cancer (BC). We studied the consequences of integrating an established Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) (BCAC 313, PRS313) into clinical sequencing of women with familial BC in Sweden.

METHODS

We developed an add-on sequencing panel to capture 313 risk variants in addition to the clinical screening of hereditary BC genes. Index patients with no pathogenic variant from 87 families, and 1000 population controls, were included in comparative PRS calculations. Including detailed family history, sequencing results and tumour pathology information, we used BOADICEA (Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm) V.6 to estimate contralateral and lifetime risks without and with PRS313.

RESULTS

Women with BC but no pathogenic variants in hereditary BC genes have a higher PRS313 compared with population controls (mean+0.78 SD, p<3e-9). Implementing PRS313 in the clinical risk estimation before their BC diagnosis would have changed the recommended follow-up in 24%-45% of women.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show the potential impact of incorporating PRS313 directly in the clinical genomic investigation of women with familial BC.

Addition of polygenic risk score to a risk calculator for prediction of breast cancer in US Black women

BACKGROUND

Previous work in European ancestry populations has shown that adding a polygenic risk score (PRS) to breast cancer risk prediction models based on epidemiologic factors results in better discriminatory performance as measured by the AUC (area under the curve). Following publication of the first PRS to perform well in women of African ancestry (AA-PRS), we conducted an external validation of the AA-PRS and then evaluated the addition of the AA-PRS to a risk calculator for incident breast cancer in Black women based on epidemiologic factors (BWHS model).

METHODS

Data from the Black Women's Health Study, an ongoing prospective cohort study of 59,000 US Black women followed by biennial questionnaire since 1995, were used to calculate AUCs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for discriminatory accuracy of the BWHS model, the AA-PRS alone, and a new model that combined them. Analyses were based on data from 922 women with invasive breast cancer and 1844 age-matched controls.

RESULTS

AUCs were 0.577 (95% CI 0.556-0.598) for the BWHS model and 0.584 (95% CI 0.563-0.605) for the AA-PRS. For a model that combined estimates from the questionnaire-based BWHS model with the PRS, the AUC increased to 0.623 (95% CI 0.603-0.644).

CONCLUSIONS

This combined model represents a step forward for personalized breast cancer preventive care for US Black women, as its performance metrics are similar to those from models in other populations. Use of this new model may mitigate exacerbation of breast cancer disparities if and when it becomes feasible to include a PRS in routine health care decision-making.

Profiling of the genetic features of patients with breast, ovarian, colorectal and extracolonic cancers: Association to CHEK2 and PALB2 germline mutations

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Cancer predisposition goes beyond BRCA and DNA Mismatch Repair (MMR) genes since multi-gene panel testing has become the routine diagnostic tool for hereditary cancer suspicion (HCS) cases. CHEK2 and PALB2 are some of the foremost-mutated non-BRCA/MMR actionable genes in families with a significant familial aggregation. Therefore, the purpose of this work is to unravel which tumours other than breast, ovary or colorectal display the patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We have analysed 528 probands that meet the inclusion criteria for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer and Lynch Syndrome established by our Hereditary Cancer Regional Program with a customized 35 genes-panel by using Ion Torrent™ Technology.

RESULTS

We have identified pathogenic variants (PVs) in 61 families (1.55%), of which more than half (31 probands) harboured PVs in CHEK2 and PALB2 genes. Ours results reveal that not only were PVs CHEK2 and PALB2 carriers more likely to have family history of cancer not limited to breast, ovarian or colorectal cancers, but also they are prone to other extracolonic cancers, noteworthy endometrial and gastric cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Multigene panel testing improves the chance of finding PVs in actionable genes in families with HCS. In addition, the coexistence of variants should be recorded to implement a polygenic risk algorithm that might explain the missing heritability in the aforementioned families.

Lymphocyte Count Derived Polygenic Score and Interindividual Variability in CD4 T-cell Recovery in Response to Antiretroviral Therapy

Access to safe and effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) is a cornerstone in the global response to the HIV pandemic. Among people living with HIV, there is considerable interindividual variability in absolute CD4 T-cell recovery following initiation of virally suppressive ART. The contribution of host genetics to this variability is not well understood. We explored the contribution of a polygenic score which was derived from large, publicly available summary statistics for absolute lymphocyte count from individuals in the general population (PGSlymph) due to a lack of publicly available summary statistics for CD4 T-cell count. We explored associations with baseline CD4 T-cell count prior to ART initiation (n=4959) and change from baseline to week 48 on ART (n=3274) among treatment-naïve participants in prospective, randomized ART studies of the AIDS Clinical Trials Group. We separately examined an African-ancestry-derived and a European-ancestry-derived PGSlymph, and evaluated their performance across all participants, and also in the African and European ancestral groups separately. Multivariate models that included PGSlymph, baseline plasma HIV-1 RNA, age, sex, and 15 principal components (PCs) of genetic similarity explained ∼26-27% of variability in baseline CD4 T-cell count, but PGSlymph accounted for <1% of this variability. Models that also included baseline CD4 T-cell count explained ∼7-9% of variability in CD4 T-cell count increase on ART, but PGSlymph accounted for <1% of this variability. In univariate analyses, PGSlymph was not significantly associated with baseline or change in CD4 T-cell count. Among individuals of African ancestry, the African PGSlymph term in the multivariate model was significantly associated with change in CD4 T-cell count while not significant in the univariate model. When applied to lymphocyte count in a general medical biobank population (Penn Medicine BioBank), PGSlymph explained ∼6-10% of variability in multivariate models (including age, sex, and PCs) but only ∼1% in univariate models. In summary, a lymphocyte count PGS derived from the general population was not consistently associated with CD4 T-cell recovery on ART. Nonetheless, adjusting for clinical covariates is quite important when estimating such polygenic effects.

Principles and methods for transferring polygenic risk scores across global populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) summarize the genetic predisposition of a complex human trait or disease and may become a valuable tool for advancing precision medicine. However, PRSs that are developed in populations of predominantly European genetic ancestries can increase health disparities due to poor predictive performance in individuals of diverse and complex genetic ancestries. We describe genetic and modifiable risk factors that limit the transferability of PRSs across populations and review the strengths and weaknesses of existing PRS construction methods for diverse ancestries. Developing PRSs that benefit global populations in research and clinical settings provides an opportunity for innovation and is essential for health equity.

Association of Polygenic Score With Tumor Molecular Subtypes in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

CONTEXT

Genome-wide association studies have identified germline variants associated with elevated PTC risk. It is also known that somatic driver mutations contribute to PTC development and as such PTCs can be further categorized into different molecular subtypes based on their somatic alterations. However, it remains unknown whether identified germline variants predictive of PTC risk are associated with specific molecular subtypes.

OBJECTIVE

The primary goal of the present study is to determine whether germline genetic risk, as assessed using a polygenic score (PGS) is associated with molecular subtypes of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), defined based on tumor driver mutation status.

METHODS

This study was carried out using data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) thyroid cancer study. A previously validated 10-single-nucleotide variation PGS for PTC derived from genome-wide association study hits was calculated to ascertain germline genetic risk. The primary molecular subtypes of interest were defined by tumor driver mutation status (BRAFV600E-mutated vs RAS-mutated vs "other"). We also explored associations between PGS and molecular subtypes defined by messenger RNA (mRNA) expression, microRNA expression, and DNA methylation patterns. Polytomous logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between PGS and PTC molecular subtype with and without adjustment for clinical variables. Odds ratios (ORs) with their 95% CIs were estimated.

RESULTS

A total of 359 patients were included in the study. PGS was significantly associated specific tumor molecular subtypes defined by tumor driver mutation status. Increasing germline risk was associated with having a higher odd of BRAFV600E-mutated PTC compared to PTCs without driver mutations in the "other" category. No significant difference was detected in terms of PGS tumor categorization in the RAS subtype compared to BRAFV600E. In exploratory analyses, PGS was also associated with mRNA-, microRNA-, and DNA methylation-defined molecular subtypes, as defined by the TCGA PTC study.

CONCLUSION

PGS has molecular subtype-specific associations in PTC, which has implications for their use in risk prediction.

The Contribution of Tissue Inhibitor of Metalloproteinase-2 Genotypes to Breast Cancer Risk in Taiwan

Tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-2 (TIMP-2) is an endogenous inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase-2 and is highly expressed in breast cancer (BC) cases at diagnosis. However, the genetic investigations for the association of TIMP-2 genotypes with BC risk are rather limited. In this study, contribution of TIMP-2 rs8179090, rs4789936, rs2009196 and rs7342880 genotypes to BC risk was examined among Taiwan's BC population. TIMP-2 genotypic profiles were revealed among 1232 BC cases and 1232 controls about their contribution to BC using a PCR-based RFLP methodology. The TIMP-2 rs8179090 homozygous variant CC genotype was significantly higher in BC cases than controls (odds ratio (OR) = 2.76, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.78-4.28, p = 0.0001). Allelic analysis showed that C allele carriers have increased risk for BC (OR = 1.39, 95%CI = 1.20-1.62, p = 0.0001). Genotypic together with allelic analysis showed that TIMP-2 rs4789936, rs2009196 or rs7342880 were not associated with BC risk. Stratification analysis showed that TIMP-2 rs8179090 genotypes were significantly associated with BC risk among younger (≤55) aged women, not among those of an elder (>55) age. Last, rs8179090 genotypes were also associated with triple negative BC. This study sheds light into the etiology of BC in Taiwanese women. Rs8179090 may be incorporated into polygenic risk scores and risk prediction models, which could aid in stratifying individuals for targeted breast cancer screening.

Polygenic risk alters the penetrance of monogenic kidney disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is determined by an interplay of monogenic, polygenic, and environmental risks. Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) and COL4A-associated nephropathy (COL4A-AN) represent the most common forms of monogenic kidney diseases. These disorders have incomplete penetrance and variable expressivity, and we hypothesize that polygenic factors explain some of this variability. By combining SNP array, exome/genome sequence, and electronic health record data from the UK Biobank and All-of-Us cohorts, we demonstrate that the genome-wide polygenic score (GPS) significantly predicts CKD among ADPKD monogenic variant carriers. Compared to the middle tertile of the GPS for noncarriers, ADPKD variant carriers in the top tertile have a 54-fold increased risk of CKD, while ADPKD variant carriers in the bottom tertile have only a 3-fold increased risk of CKD. Similarly, the GPS significantly predicts CKD in COL4A-AN carriers. The carriers in the top tertile of the GPS have a 2.5-fold higher risk of CKD, while the risk for carriers in the bottom tertile is not different from the average population risk. These results suggest that accounting for polygenic risk improves risk stratification in monogenic kidney disease.

Investigation of common genetic risk factors between thyroid traits and breast cancer

Breast cancer (BC) risk is suspected to be linked to thyroid disorders, however observational studies exploring the association between BC and thyroid disorders gave conflicting results. We proposed an alternative approach by investigating the shared genetic risk factors between BC and several thyroid traits. We report a positive genetic correlation between BC and thyroxine (FT4) levels (corr = 0.13, p-value = 2.0 × 10-4) and a negative genetic correlation between BC and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels (corr = -0.09, p-value = 0.03). These associations are more striking when restricting the analysis to estrogen receptor-positive BC. Moreover, the polygenic risk scores (PRS) for FT4 and hyperthyroidism are positively associated to BC risk (OR = 1.07, 95%CI: 1.00-1.13, p-value = 2.8 × 10-2 and OR = 1.04, 95%CI: 1.00-1.08, p-value = 3.8 × 10-2, respectively), while the PRS for TSH is inversely associated to BC risk (OR = 0.93, 95%CI: 0.89-0.97, p-value = 2.0 × 10-3). Using the PLACO method, we detected 49 loci associated to both BC and thyroid traits (p-value < 5 × 10-8), in the vicinity of 130 genes. An additional colocalization and gene-set enrichment analyses showed a convincing causal role for a known pleiotropic locus at 2q35 and revealed an additional one at 8q22.1 associated to both BC and thyroid cancer. We also found two new pleiotropic loci at 14q32.33 and 17q21.31 that were associated to both TSH levels and BC risk. Enrichment analyses and evidence of regulatory signals also highlighted brain tissues and immune system as candidates for obtaining associations between BC and TSH levels. Overall, our study sheds light on the complex interplay between BC and thyroid traits and provides evidence of shared genetic risk between those conditions.

The interaction between systemic inflammatory markers and polygenic risk score in breast cancer risk: A cohort study in the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Systemic inflammatory markers have been widely used in cancer prognosis prediction recently. However, there is limited knowledge regarding their impact on breast cancer risk and their interaction with polygenic risk scores.

METHODS

A cohort study of 202,403 female participants from the UK Biobank were analyzed to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for the incidence and mortality of breast cancer based on inflammatory markers using Cox regression models. Additionally, we stratified the analysis by polygenic risk scores (PRS) for breast cancer, and examined the interaction between these markers and PRS through likelihood ratio tests and relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI).

RESULTS

Women in the highest tertile of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), and C-reactive protein (CRP) showed an increased risk of breast cancer [HR (95 %CI) = 1.10 (1.02-1.18), 1.09 (1.01-1.17) and 1.15 (1.05-1.25), respectively], as compared to those in the lowest tertile. Regarding breast cancer mortality, only NLR and CRP exhibited consistent results in the univariate model [HR (95 %CI) = 1.25 (0.99-1.58) and 1.39 (1.10-1.77), respectively]. When stratified by PRS, stronger associations between inflammatory markers and breast cancer risk were observed in the high PRS group. Furthermore, there was a significant additive interaction between CRP and PRS [RERI (95 % CI) = 0.30 (0.06-0.53)].

CONCLUSION

NLR and CRP are associated with breast cancer risk and mortality, and the effect of CRP is influenced by PRS. Systematic inflammatory markers, together with PRS, might be applied in combined screening for breast cancer.

Breast cancer risk prediction using Tyrer-Cuzick algorithm with an 18-SNPs polygenic risk score in a European population with below-average breast cancer incidence

GOALS

To determine whether an 18 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) polygenic risk score (PRS18) improves breast cancer (BC) risk prediction for women at above-average risk of BC, aged 40-49, in a Central European population with BC incidence below EU average.

METHODS

502 women aged 40-49 years at the time of BC diagnosis completed a questionnaire on BC risk factors (as per Tyrer-Cuzick algorithm) with data known at age 40 and before BC diagnosis. Blood samples were collected for DNA isolation. 250 DNA samples from healthy women aged 50 served as a control cohort. 18 BC-associated SNPs were genotyped in both groups and PRS18 was calculated. The predictive power of PRS18 to detect BC was evaluated using a ROC curve. 10-year BC risk was calculated using the Tyrer-Cuzick algorithm adapted to the Slovenian incidence rate (S-IBIS): first based on questionnaire-based risk factors and, second, including PRS18.

RESULTS

The AUC for PRS18 was 0.613 (95 % CI 0.570-0.657). 83.3 % of women were classified at above-average risk for BC with S-IBIS without PRS18 and 80.7 % when PRS18 was included.

CONCLUSION

BC risk prediction models and SNPs panels should not be automatically used in clinical practice in different populations without prior population-based validation. In our population the addition of an 18SNPs PRS to questionnaire-based risk factors in the Tyrer-Cuzick algorithm in general did not improve BC risk stratification, however, some improvements were observed at higher BC risk scores and could be valuable in distinguishing women at intermediate and high risk of BC.

FGFR2 genetic variants in women with breast cancer

Black African populations are more genetically diverse than others, but genetic variants have been studied primarily in European populations. The present study examined the association of four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the fibroblast growth factor receptor 2, associated with breast cancer in non‑African populations, with breast cancer in Black, southern African women. Genomic DNA was extracted from whole blood samples of 1,001 patients with breast cancer and 1,006 controls (without breast cancer), and the rs2981582, rs35054928, rs2981578, and rs11200014 polymorphisms were analyzed using allele‑specific Kompetitive allele‑specific PCR™, and the χ2 or Fisher's exact tests were used to compare the genotype frequencies. There was no association between those SNPs and breast cancer in the studied cohort, although an association was identified between the C/C homozygote genotype for rs2981578 and invasive lobular carcinoma. These results show that genetic biomarkers of breast cancer risk in European populations are not necessarily associated with risk in sub‑Saharan African populations. African populations are more heterogenous than other populations, and the information from this population can help focus genetic risks of cancer in this understudied population.

Uncovering associations between pre-existing conditions and COVID-19 Severity: A polygenic risk score approach across three large biobanks

OBJECTIVE

To overcome the limitations associated with the collection and curation of COVID-19 outcome data in biobanks, this study proposes the use of polygenic risk scores (PRS) as reliable proxies of COVID-19 severity across three large biobanks: the Michigan Genomics Initiative (MGI), UK Biobank (UKB), and NIH All of Us. The goal is to identify associations between pre-existing conditions and COVID-19 severity.

METHODS

Drawing on a sample of more than 500,000 individuals from the three biobanks, we conducted a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) to identify associations between a PRS for COVID-19 severity, derived from a genome-wide association study on COVID-19 hospitalization, and clinical pre-existing, pre-pandemic phenotypes. We performed cohort-specific PRS PheWAS and a subsequent fixed-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

The current study uncovered 23 pre-existing conditions significantly associated with the COVID-19 severity PRS in cohort-specific analyses, of which 21 were observed in the UKB cohort and two in the MGI cohort. The meta-analysis yielded 27 significant phenotypes predominantly related to obesity, metabolic disorders, and cardiovascular conditions. After adjusting for body mass index, several clinical phenotypes, such as hypercholesterolemia and gastrointestinal disorders, remained associated with an increased risk of hospitalization following COVID-19 infection.

CONCLUSION

By employing PRS as a proxy for COVID-19 severity, we corroborated known risk factors and identified novel associations between pre-existing clinical phenotypes and COVID-19 severity. Our study highlights the potential value of using PRS when actual outcome data may be limited or inadequate for robust analyses.

Association of Gene Polymorphisms with Breast Cancer Risk in the Kazakh Population

OBJECTIVE

The research aim is analyzing and identify reliable genetic markers of breast cancer risk in the Kazakh population.

METHODS

The databases were analyzed with the selection of polymorphisms associated with the development of breast cancer and further genotypic study of a group of women with a confirmed diagnosis of breast adenocarcinoma (group No. 1) and a group of relatively healthy women (group No. 2).

RESULT

The research presents the results of a study on the frequency of certain single-nucleotide polymorphisms in patients with breast cancer in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The frequency of single-nucleotide polymorphisms rs4646, rs1065852, rs4244285, rs67376798, rs6504950, rs2229774, rs1800056, rs16942, rs4987047 is statistically significant compared to the control group of patients. These polymorphisms in the Kazakh population have a direct association with an increased risk of breast cancer in women and may be used as cancer indicators during the genetic screening of patients with a complicated family history. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms such as rs55886062, rs3918290, rs12721655, rs4987117, rs2229774, rs11203289, rs137852576, rs11571833, rs80359062 and rs11571746 were found in more than 40. Zero percent of patients with breast cancer may be used as markers for detecting patients at increased risk of breast malignancy in the Kazakh population without a history of poor family history.

CONCLUSION

The usage of the data obtained in a set of state programs for early screening of patients will improve the rates of early breast tumor detection, form groups of patients with a high risk of disease development and improve the quality and expectancy of life.

Birthweight, genetic risk, and gastrointestinal cancer incidence: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The epidemiologic studies investigating the association of birthweight and genetic factors with gastrointestinal cancer remain scarce. The study aimed to prospectively assess the interactions and joint effects of birthweight and genetic risk levels on gastrointestinal cancer incidence in adulthood.

METHODS

A total of 254,997 participants were included in the UK Biobank study. We used multivariate restricted cubic splines and Cox regression models to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidential intervals (CI) for the association between birthweight and gastrointestinal cancer risk, then constructed a polygenic risk score (PRS) to assess its interaction and joint effect with birthweight on the development of gastrointestinal cancer.

RESULTS

We documented 2512 incident cases during a median follow-up of 8.88 years. Compare with participants reporting a normal birthweight (2.5-4.5 kg), multivariable-adjusted HR of gastrointestinal cancer incidence for participants with high birthweight (≥4.5 kg) was 1.17 (95%CI: 1.01-1.36). Such association was remarkably observed in pancreatic cancer, with an HR of 1.82 (95%CI: 1.26-2.64). No statistically significant association was observed between low birth weight and gastrointestinal cancers. Participants with high birthweight and high PRS had the highest risk of gastrointestinal cancer (HR: 2.95, 95%CI: 2.19-3.96).

CONCLUSION

Our findings highlight that high birthweight is associated with a higher incidence of gastrointestinal cancer, especially for pancreatic cancer. Benefits would be obtained from birthweight control, particularly for individuals with a high genetic risk.KEY MESSAGESThe epidemiologic studies investigating the association of birthweight and genetic factors with gastrointestinal cancer remain scarce.This cohort study of 254,997 adults in the United Kingdom found an association of high birthweight with the incidence of gastrointestinal cancer, especially for pancreatic cancer, and also found that participants with high birthweight and high polygenic risk score had the highest risk of gastrointestinal cancer.Our data suggests a possible effect of in utero or early life exposures on adulthood gastrointestinal cancer, especially for those with a high genetic risk.

Evaluation of European-based polygenic risk score for breast cancer in Ashkenazi Jewish women in Israel

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk score (PRS), calculated based on genome-wide association studies (GWASs), can improve breast cancer (BC) risk assessment. To date, most BC GWASs have been performed in individuals of European (EUR) ancestry, and the generalisation of EUR-based PRS to other populations is a major challenge. In this study, we examined the performance of EUR-based BC PRS models in Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) women.

METHODS

We generated PRSs based on data on EUR women from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). We tested the performance of the PRSs in a cohort of 2161 AJ women from Israel (1437 cases and 724 controls) from BCAC (BCAC cohort from Israel (BCAC-IL)). In addition, we tested the performance of these EUR-based BC PRSs, as well as the established 313-SNP EUR BC PRS, in an independent cohort of 181 AJ women from Hadassah Medical Center (HMC) in Israel.

RESULTS

In the BCAC-IL cohort, the highest OR per 1 SD was 1.56 (±0.09). The OR for AJ women at the top 10% of the PRS distribution compared with the middle quintile was 2.10 (±0.24). In the HMC cohort, the OR per 1 SD of the EUR-based PRS that performed best in the BCAC-IL cohort was 1.58±0.27. The OR per 1 SD of the commonly used 313-SNP BC PRS was 1.64 (±0.28).

CONCLUSIONS

Extant EUR GWAS data can be used for generating PRSs that identify AJ women with markedly elevated risk of BC and therefore hold promise for improving BC risk assessment in AJ women.

Polygenic Risk Score for Cardiovascular Diseases in Artificial Intelligence Paradigm: A Review

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) related mortality and morbidity heavily strain society. The relationship between external risk factors and our genetics have not been well established. It is widely acknowledged that environmental influence and individual behaviours play a significant role in CVD vulnerability, leading to the development of polygenic risk scores (PRS). We employed the PRISMA search method to locate pertinent research and literature to extensively review artificial intelligence (AI)-based PRS models for CVD risk prediction. Furthermore, we analyzed and compared conventional vs. AI-based solutions for PRS. We summarized the recent advances in our understanding of the use of AI-based PRS for risk prediction of CVD. Our study proposes three hypotheses: i) Multiple genetic variations and risk factors can be incorporated into AI-based PRS to improve the accuracy of CVD risk predicting. ii) AI-based PRS for CVD circumvents the drawbacks of conventional PRS calculators by incorporating a larger variety of genetic and non-genetic components, allowing for more precise and individualised risk estimations. iii) Using AI approaches, it is possible to significantly reduce the dimensionality of huge genomic datasets, resulting in more accurate and effective disease risk prediction models. Our study highlighted that the AI-PRS model outperformed traditional PRS calculators in predicting CVD risk. Furthermore, using AI-based methods to calculate PRS may increase the precision of risk predictions for CVD and have significant ramifications for individualized prevention and treatment plans.

Applying polygenic risk score methods to pharmacogenomics GWAS: challenges and opportunities

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have emerged as promising tools for the prediction of human diseases and complex traits in disease genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Applying PRSs to pharmacogenomics (PGx) studies has begun to show great potential for improving patient stratification and drug response prediction. However, there are unique challenges that arise when applying PRSs to PGx GWAS beyond those typically encountered in disease GWAS (e.g. Eurocentric or trans-ethnic bias). These challenges include: (i) the lack of knowledge about whether PGx or disease GWAS/variants should be used in the base cohort (BC); (ii) the small sample sizes in PGx GWAS with corresponding low power and (iii) the more complex PRS statistical modeling required for handling both prognostic and predictive effects simultaneously. To gain insights in this landscape about the general trends, challenges and possible solutions, we first conduct a systematic review of both PRS applications and PRS method development in PGx GWAS. To further address the challenges, we propose (i) a novel PRS application strategy by leveraging both PGx and disease GWAS summary statistics in the BC for PRS construction and (ii) a new Bayesian method (PRS-PGx-Bayesx) to reduce Eurocentric or cross-population PRS prediction bias. Extensive simulations are conducted to demonstrate their advantages over existing PRS methods applied in PGx GWAS. Our systematic review and methodology research work not only highlights current gaps and key considerations while applying PRS methods to PGx GWAS, but also provides possible solutions for better PGx PRS applications and future research.

A Systematic Review and Critical Assessment of Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Tools Incorporating a Polygenic Risk Score for the General Population

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the form of a polygenic risk score (PRS) have emerged as a promising factor that could improve the predictive performance of breast cancer (BC) risk prediction tools. This study aims to appraise and critically assess the current evidence on these tools. Studies were identified using Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library up to November 2022 and were included if they described the development and/ or validation of a BC risk prediction model using a PRS for women of the general population and if they reported a measure of predictive performance. We identified 37 articles, of which 29 combined genetic and non-genetic risk factors using seven different risk prediction tools. Most models (55.0%) were developed on populations from European ancestry and performed better than those developed on populations from other ancestry groups. Regardless of the number of SNPs in each PRS, models combining a PRS with genetic and non-genetic risk factors generally had better discriminatory accuracy (AUC from 0.52 to 0.77) than those using a PRS alone (AUC from 0.48 to 0.68). The overall risk of bias was considered low in most studies. BC risk prediction tools combining a PRS with genetic and non-genetic risk factors provided better discriminative accuracy than either used alone. Further studies are needed to cross-compare their clinical utility and readiness for implementation in public health practices.

Prediction of breast cancer risk for sisters of women attending screening

BACKGROUND

Risk assessment is important for breast cancer prevention and early detection. We aimed to examine whether common risk factors, mammographic features, and breast cancer risk prediction scores of a woman were associated with breast cancer risk for her sisters.

METHODS

We included 53 051 women from the Karolinska Mammography Project for Risk Prediction of Breast Cancer (KARMA) study. Established risk factors were derived using self-reported questionnaires, mammograms, and single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping. Using the Swedish Multi-Generation Register, we identified 32 198 sisters of the KARMA women (including 5352 KARMA participants and 26 846 nonparticipants). Cox models were used to estimate the hazard ratios of breast cancer for both women and their sisters, respectively.

RESULTS

A higher breast cancer polygenic risk score, a history of benign breast disease, and higher breast density in women were associated with an increased risk of breast cancer for both women and their sisters. No statistically significant association was observed between breast microcalcifications and masses in women and breast cancer risk for their sisters. Furthermore, higher breast cancer risk scores in women were associated with an increased risk of breast cancer for their sisters. Specifically, the hazard ratios for breast cancer per 1 standard deviation increase in age-adjusted KARMA, Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA), and Tyrer-Cuzick risk scores were 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07 to 1.27), 1.23 (95% CI = 1.12 to 1.35), and 1.21 (95% CI = 1.11 to 1.32), respectively.

CONCLUSION

A woman's breast cancer risk factors are associated with her sister's breast cancer risk. However, the clinical utility of these findings requires further investigation.

Breast and colorectal cancer risks among over 6,000 CHEK2 pathogenic variant carriers: A comparison of missense versus truncating variants

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Heterozygous truncating pathogenic variants (PVs) in CHEK2 confer a 1.5 to 3-fold increased risk for breast cancer and may elevate colorectal cancer risks. Less is known regarding missense variants. Here we compared the cancer associations with truncating and missense PVs in CHEK2 across breast and colorectal cancer.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of 705,797 patients who received single laboratory multigene panel testing between 2013 and 2020. Multivariable logistic regression models determined cancer risk associated with CHEK2 variants as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) after adjusting for age at diagnosis, cancer history, and ancestry. Breast and colorectal cancer analyses were performed using 6255 CHEK2 PVs, including truncating PVs (N = 4505) and missense PVs (N = 1750).

RESULTS

CHEK2 PVs were associated with an increased risk of ductal invasive breast cancer (p < 0.001) and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) (p < 0.001), with no statistically significant differences when truncating PVs (p < 0.001) and missense PVs (p < 0.001) were evaluated separately. All CHEK2 variants assessed conferred little to no risk of colorectal cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

In our large cohort, CHEK2 truncating and missense PVs conferred similar risks for breast cancer and did not seem to elevate risk for colorectal cancer.

Inference on the Genetic Architecture of Breast Cancer Risk

BACKGROUND

What are the major determinants of women's breast cancer risk? Rare mutations such as those in the BRCA1/2 genes, polygenic scores of common alleles identified by genome-wide association studies, or nongenetic factors?

METHODS

The population-based Nordic Twin Study of Cancer, with 3,933 breast cancer cases among 21,054 monozygotic (MZ) and 30,939 dizygotic (DZ) female twin pairs, provides three key clues to this question: (i) the average lifetime risk, approximately 8%, does not differ by twin zygosity; (ii) the mean time interval between diagnoses when both twins develop disease (i.e., disease concordance) also does not differ by zygosity; but, (iii) conditioning on one twin having developed disease, the incidence rate in the co-twin is approximately 1% per year if the pair is MZ and 0.5% per year if DZ.

RESULTS

Assuming that nongenetic risk factors are shared similarly between twins regardless of zygosity, we can draw two conclusions from (i) to (iii).

CONCLUSIONS

First, (i) and (iii) imply that the chief determinant of risk is in the germline DNA, because the conditional incidence rate is several-fold higher than the average risk (8% lifetime) in MZ twins but only half as much in DZ twins. Second, the seeming inconsistency between the two-fold conditional incidence rate (iii) and the equality of the mean inter-twin disease intervals in disease concordance (ii) can be resolved if the risk factors in the germline DNA are rare variants, not common variants.

IMPACT

This paper details simple deductive reasoning for these conclusions and draws a critical inference regarding breast cancer etiology. See related In the Spotlight, p. 1477.

Perceived benefits and barriers to implementing precision preventive care: Results of a national physician survey

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) may improve risk-stratification in preventive care. Their clinical implementation will depend on primary care physicians' (PCPs) uptake. We surveyed PCPs in a national physician database about the perceived clinical utility, benefits, and barriers to the use of PRS in preventive care. Among 367 respondents (participation rate 96.3%), mean (SD) age was 54.9 (12.9) years, 137 (37.3%) were female, and mean (SD) time since medical school graduation was 27.2 (13.3) years. Respondents reported greater perceived utility for more clinical action (e.g., earlier or more intensive screening, preventive medications, or lifestyle modification) for patients with high-risk PRS than for delayed or discontinued prevention actions for low-risk patients (p < 0.001). Respondents most often chose out-of-pocket costs (48%), lack of clinical guidelines (24%), and insurance discrimination concerns (22%) as extreme barriers. Latent class analysis identified 3 subclasses of respondents. Skeptics (n = 83, 22.6%) endorsed less agreement with individual clinical utilities, saw patient anxiety and insurance discrimination as significant barriers, and agreed less often that PRS could help patients make better health decisions. Learners (n = 134, 36.5%) and enthusiasts (n = 150, 40.9%) expressed similar levels of agreement that PRS had utility for preventive actions and that PRS could be useful for patient decision-making. Compared with enthusiasts, however, learners perceived greater barriers to the clinical use of PRS. Overall results suggest that PCPs generally endorse using PRS to guide medical decision-making about preventive care, and barriers identified suggest interventions to address their needs and concerns.

Review: Predictive approaches to breast cancer risk

Despite the deployment of specific breast cancer screening strategies, breast cancer incidence rates have escalated significantly over recent decades. In a bid to reverse this trend, scientists have engaged in extensive epidemiological research into breast cancer prevalence, identifying numerous individual risk factors and promoting population-wide health education. Coupled with advances in genetic testing, risk prediction models based on breast cancer genes have been developed, albeit with inherent limitations. In the new millennium, the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) as a dominant technological force suggests that breast cancer prediction models developed with AI may represent the next frontier in research.

Impact of selection bias on polygenic risk score estimates in healthcare settings

BACKGROUND

Hospital-based biobanks are being increasingly considered as a resource for translating polygenic risk scores (PRS) into clinical practice. However, since these biobanks originate from patient populations, there is a possibility of bias in polygenic risk estimation due to overrepresentation of patients with higher frequency of healthcare interactions.

METHODS

PRS for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and depression were calculated using summary statistics from the largest available genomic studies for a sample of 24 153 European ancestry participants in the Mass General Brigham (MGB) Biobank. To correct for selection bias, we fitted logistic regression models with inverse probability (IP) weights, which were estimated using 1839 sociodemographic, clinical, and healthcare utilization features extracted from electronic health records of 1 546 440 non-Hispanic White patients eligible to participate in the Biobank study at their first visit to the MGB-affiliated hospitals.

RESULTS

Case prevalence of bipolar disorder among participants in the top decile of bipolar disorder PRS was 10.0% (95% CI 8.8-11.2%) in the unweighted analysis but only 6.2% (5.0-7.5%) when selection bias was accounted for using IP weights. Similarly, case prevalence of depression among those in the top decile of depression PRS was reduced from 33.5% (31.7-35.4%) to 28.9% (25.8-31.9%) after IP weighting.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-random selection of participants into volunteer biobanks may induce clinically relevant selection bias that could impact implementation of PRS in research and clinical settings. As efforts to integrate PRS in medical practice expand, recognition and mitigation of these biases should be considered and may need to be optimized in a context-specific manner.

Polygenic risk scores for disease risk prediction in Africa: current challenges and future directions

Early identification of genetic risk factors for complex diseases can enable timely interventions and prevent serious outcomes, including mortality. While the genetics underlying many Mendelian diseases have been elucidated, it is harder to predict risk for complex diseases arising from the combined effects of many genetic variants with smaller individual effects on disease aetiology. Polygenic risk scores (PRS), which combine multiple contributing variants to predict disease risk, have the potential to influence the implementation for precision medicine. However, the majority of existing PRS were developed from European data with limited transferability to African populations. Notably, African populations have diverse genetic backgrounds, and a genomic architecture with smaller haplotype blocks compared to European genomes. Subsequently, growing evidence shows that using large-scale African ancestry cohorts as discovery for PRS development may generate more generalizable findings. Here, we (1) discuss the factors contributing to the poor transferability of PRS in African populations, (2) showcase the novel Africa genomic datasets for PRS development, (3) explore the potential clinical utility of PRS in African populations, and (4) provide insight into the future of PRS in Africa.

Predicting Breast Cancer Risk Using Radiomics Features of Mammography Images

Mammography images contain a lot of information about not only the mammary glands but also the skin, adipose tissue, and stroma, which may reflect the risk of developing breast cancer. We aimed to establish a method to predict breast cancer risk using radiomics features of mammography images and to enable further examinations and prophylactic treatment to reduce breast cancer mortality. We used mammography images of 4000 women with breast cancer and 1000 healthy women from the 'starting point set' of the OPTIMAM dataset, a public dataset. We trained a Light Gradient Boosting Machine using radiomics features extracted from mammography images of women with breast cancer (only the healthy side) and healthy women. This model was a binary classifier that could discriminate whether a given mammography image was of the contralateral side of women with breast cancer or not, and its performance was evaluated using five-fold cross-validation. The average area under the curve for five folds was 0.60122. Some radiomics features, such as 'wavelet-H_glcm_Correlation' and 'wavelet-H_firstorder_Maximum', showed distribution differences between the malignant and normal groups. Therefore, a single radiomics feature might reflect the breast cancer risk. The odds ratio of breast cancer incidence was 7.38 in women whose estimated malignancy probability was ≥0.95. Radiomics features from mammography images can help predict breast cancer risk.

Profiling the inflammatory bowel diseases using genetics, serum biomarkers, and smoking information

Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) are two etiologically related yet distinctive subtypes of the inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD). Differentiating CD from UC can be challenging using conventional clinical approaches in a subset of patients. We designed and evaluated a novel molecular-based prediction model aggregating genetics, serum biomarkers, and tobacco smoking information to assist the diagnosis of CD and UC in over 30,000 samples. A joint model combining genetics, serum biomarkers and smoking explains 46% (42-50%, 95% CI) of phenotypic variation. Despite modest overlaps with serum biomarkers, genetics makes unique contributions to distinguishing IBD subtypes. Smoking status only explains 1% (0-6%, 95% CI) of the phenotypic variance suggesting it may not be an effective biomarker. This study reveals that molecular-based models combining genetics, serum biomarkers, and smoking information could complement current diagnostic strategies and help classify patients based on biologic state rather than imperfect clinical parameters.

The Hoof Color of Australian White Sheep Is Associated with Genetic Variation of the MITF Gene

Studying the characteristics of mammalian hoof colors is important for genetic improvements in animals. A deeper black hoof color is the standard for breeding purebred Australian White (AUW) sheep and this phenotype could be used as a phenotypic marker of purebred animals. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) analysis using restriction site associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) data from 577 Australian White sheep (black hoof color = 283, grey hoof color = 106, amber hoof color = 186) and performed association analysis utilizing the mixed linear model in EMMAX. The results of GWAS demonstrated that a specific single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP; g. 33097911G>A) in intron 14 of the microphthalmia-associated transcription factor (MITF) gene was significantly associated with the hoof color in AUW sheep (p = 9.40 × 10-36). The MITF gene plays a key role in the development, differentiation, and functional regulation of melanocytes. Furthermore, the association between this locus and hoof color was validated in a cohort of 212 individuals (black hoof color = 122, grey hoof color = 38, amber hoof color = 52). The results indicated that the hoof color of AUW sheep with GG, AG, and AA genotypes tended to be black, grey, and amber, respectively. This study provided novel insights into hoof color genetics in AUW sheep, enhancing our comprehension of the genetic mechanisms underlying the diverse range of hoof colors. Our results agree with previous studies and provide molecular markers for marker-assisted selection for hoof color in sheep.

Implementation of Risk-Stratified Breast Cancer Prevention With a Polygenic Risk Score Test in Clinical Practice

Background

Breast cancer (BC) screening with mammography reduces mortality but considers currently only age as a risk factor. Personalized risk-based screening has been proposed as a more efficient alternative. For that, risk prediction tools are necessary. Genome-wide association studies have identified numerous genetic variants (single-nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]) associated with BC. The effects of SNPs are combined into a polygenic risk score (PRS) as a risk prediction tool.

Objectives

We aimed to develop a clinical-grade PRS test suitable for BC risk-stratified screening with clinical recommendations and implementation in clinical practice.

Design and methods

In the first phase of our study, we gathered previously published PRS models for predicting BC risk from the literature and validated them using the Estonian Biobank and UK Biobank data sets. We selected the best performing model based on prevalent data and independently validated it in both incident data sets. We then conducted absolute risk simulations, developed risk-based recommendations, and implemented the PRS test in clinical practice. In the second phase, we carried out a retrospective analysis of the PRS test's performance results in clinical practice.

Results

The best performing PRS included 2803 SNPs. The C-index of the Cox regression model associating BC status with PRS was 0.656 (SE = 0.05) with a hazard ratio of 1.66. The PRS can stratify individuals with more than a 3-fold risk increase. A total of 2637 BC PRS tests have been performed for women between the ages 30 and 83. Results in clinical use overlap well with expected PRS performance with 5.7% of women with more than 2-fold and 1.4% with more than 3-fold higher risk than the population average.

Conclusion

The PRS test separates different BC risk levels and is feasible to implement in clinical practice.

Variance of age-specific log incidence decomposition (VALID): a unifying model of measured and unmeasured genetic and non-genetic risks

BACKGROUND

The extent to which known and unknown factors explain how much people of the same age differ in disease risk is fundamental to epidemiology. Risk factors can be correlated in relatives, so familial aspects of risk (genetic and non-genetic) must be considered.

DEVELOPMENT

We present a unifying model (VALID) for variance in risk, with risk defined as log(incidence) or logit(cumulative incidence). Consider a normally distributed risk score with incidence increasing exponentially as the risk increases. VALID's building block is variance in risk, Δ2, where Δ = log(OPERA) is the difference in mean between cases and controls and OPERA is the odds ratio per standard deviation. A risk score correlated r between a pair of relatives generates a familial odds ratio of exp(rΔ2). Familial risk ratios, therefore, can be converted into variance components of risk, extending Fisher's classic decomposition of familial variation to binary traits. Under VALID, there is a natural upper limit to variance in risk caused by genetic factors, determined by the familial odds ratio for genetically identical twin pairs, but not to variation caused by non-genetic factors.

APPLICATION

For female breast cancer, VALID quantified how much variance in risk is explained-at different ages-by known and unknown major genes and polygenes, non-genomic risk factors correlated in relatives, and known individual-specific factors.

CONCLUSION

VALID has shown that, while substantial genetic risk factors have been discovered, much is unknown about genetic and familial aspects of breast cancer risk especially for young women, and little is known about individual-specific variance in risk.

mtPGS: Leverage multiple correlated traits for accurate polygenic score construction

Accurate polygenic scores (PGSs) facilitate the genetic prediction of complex traits and aid in the development of personalized medicine. Here, we develop a statistical method called multi-trait assisted PGS (mtPGS), which can construct accurate PGSs for a target trait of interest by leveraging multiple traits relevant to the target trait. Specifically, mtPGS borrows SNP effect size similarity information between the target trait and its relevant traits to improve the effect size estimation on the target trait, thus achieving accurate PGSs. In the process, mtPGS flexibly models the shared genetic architecture between the target and the relevant traits to achieve robust performance, while explicitly accounting for the environmental covariance among them to accommodate different study designs with various sample overlap patterns. In addition, mtPGS uses only summary statistics as input and relies on a deterministic algorithm with several algebraic techniques for scalable computation. We evaluate the performance of mtPGS through comprehensive simulations and applications to 25 traits in the UK Biobank, where in the real data mtPGS achieves an average of 0.90%-52.91% accuracy gain compared to the state-of-the-art PGS methods. Overall, mtPGS represents an accurate, fast, and robust solution for PGS construction in biobank-scale datasets.

Prenatal Lead Exposure, Genetic Factors, and Cognitive Developmental Delay

Importance

Although the effects of lead (Pb) exposure on neurocognition in children have been confirmed, the individual associations of prenatal Pb exposure and its interaction with genetic factors on cognitive developmental delay (CDD) in children remain unclear.

Objective

To investigate the association of prenatal Pb exposure and its interaction with genetic factors with CDD risk.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Women in Wuhan, China, who had an expected delivery date between March 2014 and December 2017, were recruited for this prospective cohort study. Children were assessed for cognitive development at approximately 2 years of age (March 2016 to December 2019). Maternal venous blood, cord blood, and venous blood from children were collected in a longitudinal follow-up. Data analysis was performed from March 2022 to February 2023.

Exposure

Prenatal Pb exposure, and genetic risk for cognitive ability evaluated by polygenic risk score constructed with 58 genetic variations.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Cognitive developmental delay of children aged approximately 2 years was assessed using the Chinese revision of the Bayley Scale of Infant Development. A series of multivariable logistic regressions was estimated to determine associations between prenatal Pb exposure and CDD among children with various genetic backgrounds, adjusting for confounding variables.

Results

This analysis included 2361 eligible mother-child pairs (1240 boys [52.5%] and 1121 girls [47.5%]; mean [SD] ages of mothers and children, 28.9 [3.6] years and 24.8 [1.0] months, respectively), with 292 children (12.4%) having CDD. Higher maternal Pb levels were significantly associated with increased risk of CDD (highest vs lowest tertile: odds ratio, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.13-2.13), adjusting for demographic confounders. The association of CDD with maternal Pb levels was more evident among children with higher genetic risk (highest vs lowest tertile: odds ratio, 2.59; 95% CI, 1.48-4.55), adjusting for demographic confounders.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, prenatal Pb exposure was associated with an increased risk of CDD in children, especially in those with a high genetic risk. These findings suggest that prenatal Pb exposure and genetic background may jointly contribute to an increased risk of CDD for children and indicate the possibility for an integrated strategy to assess CDD risk and improve children's cognitive ability.