Long-term validity of the At Risk Mental State (ARMS) for predicting psychotic and non-psychotic mental disorders

Clinical and functional long-term outcome of patients at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis without transition to psychosis: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Research on patients at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis has so far mainly focused on those with transition to frank psychosis (CHR-T patients). However, the majority of CHR patients do not transition (CHR-NT patients) and relatively little information is available on their clinical and functional outcome.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review on clinical and functional long-term outcome of CHR-NT patients. Studies were included if they had an average follow-up period of at least 24 months and reported on long-term outcome of CHR-NT patients in one or more of the following domains: (non-)remission from CHR, prevalence of clinical symptoms and/or clinical diagnoses (axis I and II), and psychosocial functioning.

RESULTS

Ten publications from seven different single or multicenter studies with average follow-up durations of 2-7.5 years could be included. At the last follow-up assessment 28-71% of CHR-NT patients were not remitted from their CHR and 22-82% still had at least one clinical diagnosis. Approximately half of CHR-NT patients presented with poor psychosocial outcome at 2-year and 6-year follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that, in the long-term, the majority of CHR-NT patients are not in full clinical remission and seem to suffer from one or more clinical disorders and psychosocial impairments. Since relatively few studies could be identified, further research is required to better understand the trajectories and clinical needs of CHR-NT patients.

Exploring the predictive power of the unspecific risk category of the Basel Screening Instrument for Psychosis

AIM

Ultrahigh risk (UHR) criteria, consisting of brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (BLIPS), attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) and genetic risk and deterioration (GRD) syndrome are the most widely used criteria for assessing the clinical high-risk state for psychosis (CHR-P). The Basel Screening Instrument for Psychosis (BSIP) includes a further risk category, the unspecific risk category (URC). However, little is known about the predictive power of this risk category compared to other risk categories.

METHODS

Two hundred CHR-P patients were detected as part of the Früherkennung von Psychosen (FePsy) study using the BSIP. Transition to psychosis was assessed in regular intervals for up to 7 years.

RESULTS

Patients meeting only the URC criterion (n = 40) had a significantly lower risk of transition to psychosis than the UHR group (including BLIPS, APS and GRD) (HR 0.19 [0.05; 0.80] (P = 0.024). Furthermore, the URC only risk group had a lower transition risk than the APS without BLIPS group (P = 0.015) and a trendwise lower risk than the BLIPS group (P = 0.066). However, despite the lower transition risk in the URC only group, there were still two patients (5%) in this group with a later transition to psychosis.

CONCLUSIONS

The URC includes patients who have a lower risk of transition than those included by the UHR categories and thereby increases the sensitivity of the BSIP. This offers the possibility of a stratified intervention, with these subjects receiving low intensity follow-up and treatment.

Clinical and functional characteristics of youth at clinical high-risk for psychosis who do not transition to psychosis

BACKGROUND

Much of the interest in youth at clinical high risk (CHR) of psychosis has been in understanding conversion. Recent literature has suggested that less than 25% of those who meet established criteria for being at CHR of psychosis go on to develop a psychotic illness. However, little is known about the outcome of those who do not make the transition to psychosis. The aim of this paper was to examine clinical symptoms and functioning in the second North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS 2) of those individuals whose by the end of 2 years in the study had not developed psychosis.

METHODS

In NAPLS-2 278 CHR participants completed 2-year follow-ups and had not made the transition to psychosis. At 2-years the sample was divided into three groups - those whose symptoms were in remission, those who were still symptomatic and those whose symptoms had become more severe.

RESULTS

There was no difference between those who remitted early in the study compared with those who remitted at one or 2 years. At 2-years, those in remission had fewer symptoms and improved functioning compared with the two symptomatic groups. However, all three groups had poorer social functioning and cognition than healthy controls.

CONCLUSIONS

A detailed examination of the clinical and functional outcomes of those who did not make the transition to psychosis did not contribute to predicting who may make the transition or who may have an earlier remission of attenuated psychotic symptoms.

Olfactory neuroepithelium alterations and cognitive correlates in schizophrenia

BACKGROUND

Few studies have investigated alterations of olfactory neuroepithelium (ONE) as a biomarker of schizophrenia, and none its association with cognitive functioning.

METHOD

Fresh ONE cells from twelve patients with schizophrenia and thirteen healthy controls were collected by nasal brushing, cultured in proper media and passed twelve times. Markers of cell proliferation (BrdU incorporation, Cyclin-D1 and p21 protein level) were quantified.Cognitive function was measured using Brief Neuropsychological Examination-2.

PRIMARY OUTCOME

proliferation of ONE cells from schizophrenic patients at passage 3. Secondary outcome: association between alteration of cell proliferation and cognitive function.

RESULTS

Fresh ONE cells from patients showed a faster cell proliferation than those from healthy controls at passage 3. An opposite trend was observed at passage 9, ONE cells of patients with schizophrenia showing slower cell proliferation as compared to healthy controls. In schizophrenia, overall cognitive function (Spearman's rho -0.657, p < 0.01), verbal memory - immediate recall, with interference at 10 s and 30 s (Spearman's rho from -0.676 to 0.697, all p < 0.01) were inversely associated with cell proliferation at passage 3.

CONCLUSION

Fresh ONE cells collected by nasal brushing might eventually represent a tool for diagnosing schizophrenia based upon markers of cell proliferation, which can be easily implemented as single-layer culture. Cell proliferation at passage 3 can be regarded as a promising proxy of cognitive functioning in schizophrenia. Future studies should replicate these findings, and may assess whether ONE alterations are there before onset of psychosis, serving as an early sign in patients with at risk mental state.

Integrated Mental Health Services for the Developmental Period (0 to 25 Years): A Critical Review of the Evidence

Background: The developmental period from 0 to 25 years is a vulnerable time during which children and young people experience many psychosocial and neurobiological changes and an increased incidence of mental illness. New clinical services for children and young people aged 0 to 25 years may represent a radical transformation of mental healthcare. Method: Critical, non-systematic review of the PubMed literature up to 3rd January 2019. Results: Rationale: the youngest age group has an increased risk of developing mental disorders and 75% of mental disorders begin by the age of 24 and prodromal features may start even earlier. Most of the risk factors for mental disorders exert their role before the age of 25, profound maturational brain changes occur from mid-childhood through puberty to the mid-20s, and mental disorders that persist in adulthood have poor long-term outcomes. The optimal window of opportunity to improve the outcomes of mental disorders is the prevention or early treatment in individuals aged 0 to 25 within a clinical staging model framework. Unmet needs: children and young people face barriers to primary and secondary care access, delays in receiving appropriate treatments, poor engagement, cracks between child and adult mental health services, poor involvement in the design of mental health services, and lack of evidence-based treatments. Evidence: the most established paradigm for reforming youth mental services focuses on people aged 12-25 who experienced early stages of psychosis. Future advancements may include early stages of depression and bipolar disorders. Broader youth mental health services have been implemented worldwide, but no single example constitutes best practice. These services seem to improve access, symptomatic and functional outcomes, and satisfaction of children and young people aged 12-25. However, there are no robust controlled trials demonstrating their impact. Very limited evidence is available for integrated mental health services that focus on people aged 0-12. Conclusions: Children and young people aged 12-25 need youth-friendly mental health services that are sensitive to their unique stage of clinical, neurobiological, and psychosocial development. Early intervention for psychosis services may represent the starting platform to refine the next generation of integrated youth mental health services.

Individualized Prediction of Transition to Psychosis in 1,676 Individuals at Clinical High Risk: Development and Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model Based on Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis

Background: The Clinical High Risk state for Psychosis (CHR-P) has become the cornerstone of modern preventive psychiatry. The next stage of clinical advancements rests on the ability to formulate a more accurate prognostic estimate at the individual subject level. Individual Participant Data Meta-Analyses (IPD-MA) are robust evidence synthesis methods that can also offer powerful approaches to the development and validation of personalized prognostic models. The aim of the study was to develop and validate an individualized, clinically based prognostic model for forecasting transition to psychosis from a CHR-P stage. Methods: A literature search was performed between January 30, 2016, and February 6, 2016, consulting PubMed, Psychinfo, Picarta, Embase, and ISI Web of Science, using search terms ("ultra high risk" OR "clinical high risk" OR "at risk mental state") AND [(conver* OR transition* OR onset OR emerg* OR develop*) AND psychosis] for both longitudinal and intervention CHR-P studies. Clinical knowledge was used to a priori select predictors: age, gender, CHR-P subgroup, the severity of attenuated positive psychotic symptoms, the severity of attenuated negative psychotic symptoms, and level of functioning at baseline. The model, thus, developed was validated with an extended form of internal validation. Results: Fifteen of the 43 studies identified agreed to share IPD, for a total sample size of 1,676. There was a high level of heterogeneity between the CHR-P studies with regard to inclusion criteria, type of assessment instruments, transition criteria, preventive treatment offered. The internally validated prognostic performance of the model was higher than chance but only moderate [Harrell's C-statistic 0.655, 95% confidence interval (CIs), 0.627-0.682]. Conclusion: This is the first IPD-MA conducted in the largest samples of CHR-P ever collected to date. An individualized prognostic model based on clinical predictors available in clinical routine was developed and internally validated, reaching only moderate prognostic performance. Although personalized risk prediction is of great value in the clinical practice, future developments are essential, including the refinement of the prognostic model and its external validation. However, because of the current high diagnostic, prognostic, and therapeutic heterogeneity of CHR-P studies, IPD-MAs in this population may have an limited intrinsic power to deliver robust prognostic models.

Psychosis Polyrisk Score (PPS) for the Detection of Individuals At-Risk and the Prediction of Their Outcomes

Primary prevention in individuals at Clinical High Risk for psychosis (CHR-P) can ameliorate the course of psychotic disorders. Further advancements of knowledge have been slowed by the standstill of the field, which is mostly attributed to its epidemiological weakness. The latter, in turn, underlies the limited identification power of at-risk individuals and the relatively modest ability of CHR-P interviews to rule-in a state of risk for psychosis. In the first part, this perspective review discusses these limitations and traces a new approach to overcome them. Theoretical concepts to support a Psychosis Polyrisk Score (PPS) integrating genetic and non-genetic risk and protective factors for psychosis are presented. The PPS hinges on recent findings indicating that risk enrichment in CHR-P samples is accounted for by the accumulation of non-genetic factors such as: parental and sociodemographic risk factors, perinatal risk factors, later risk factors, and antecedents. In the second part of this perspective review we present a prototype of a PPS encompassing core predictors beyond genetics. The PPS prototype may be piloted in the next generation of CHR-P research and combined with genetic information to refine the detection of individuals at-risk of psychosis and the prediction of their outcomes, and ultimately advance clinical research in this field.

Transdiagnostic Risk Calculator for the Automatic Detection of Individuals at Risk and the Prediction of Psychosis: Second Replication in an Independent National Health Service Trust

BACKGROUND

The benefits of indicated primary prevention among individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) are limited by the difficulty in detecting these individuals. To overcome this problem, a transdiagnostic, clinically based, individualized risk calculator has recently been developed and subjected to a first external validation in 2 different catchment areas of the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) NHS Trust.

METHODS

Second external validation of real world, real-time electronic clinical register-based cohort study. All individuals who received a first ICD-10 index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within the Camden and Islington (C&I) NHS Trust between 2009 and 2016 were included. The model previously validated included age, gender, ethnicity, age by gender, and ICD-10 index diagnosis to predict the development of any ICD-10 nonorganic psychosis. The model's performance was measured using Harrell's C-index.

RESULTS

This study included a total of 13702 patients with an average age of 40 (range 16-99), 52% were female, and most were of white ethnicity (64%). There were no CHR-P or child/adolescent services in the C&I Trust. The C&I and SLaM Trust samples also differed significantly in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, and distribution of index diagnosis. Despite these significant differences, the original model retained an acceptable predictive performance (Harrell's C of 0.73), which is comparable to that of CHR-P tools currently recommended for clinical use.

CONCLUSIONS

This risk calculator may pragmatically support an improved transdiagnostic detection of at-risk individuals and psychosis prediction even in NHS Trusts in the United Kingdom where CHR-P services are not provided.

Real World Implementation of a Transdiagnostic Risk Calculator for the Automatic Detection of Individuals at Risk of Psychosis in Clinical Routine: Study Protocol

Background: Primary indicated prevention in individuals at-risk for psychosis has the potential to improve the outcomes of this disorder. The ability to detect the majority of at-risk individuals is the main barrier toward extending benefits for the lives of many adolescents and young adults. Current detection strategies are highly inefficient. Only 5% (standalone specialized early detection services) to 12% (youth mental health services) of individuals who will develop a first psychotic disorder can be detected at the time of their at-risk stage. To overcome these challenges a pragmatic, clinically-based, individualized, transdiagnostic risk calculator has been developed to detect individuals at-risk of psychosis in secondary mental health care at scale. This calculator has been externally validated and has demonstrated good prognostic performance. However, it is not known whether it can be used in the real world clinical routine. For example, clinicians may not be willing to adhere to the recommendations made by the transdiagnostic risk calculator. Implementation studies are needed to address pragmatic challenges relating to the real world use of the transdiagnostic risk calculator. The aim of the current study is to provide in-vitro and in-vivo feasibility data to support the implementation of the transdiagnostic risk calculator in clinical routine. Method: This is a study which comprises of two subsequent phases: an in-vitro phase of 1 month and an in-vivo phase of 11 months. The in-vitro phase aims at developing and integrating the transdiagnostic risk calculator in the local electronic health register (primary outcome). The in-vivo phase aims at addressing the clinicians' adherence to the recommendations made by the transdiagnostic risk calculator (primary outcome) and other secondary feasibility parameters that are necessary to estimate the resources needed for its implementation. Discussion: This is the first implementation study for risk prediction models in individuals at-risk for psychosis. Ultimately, successful implementation is the true measure of a prediction model's utility. Therefore, the overall translational deliverable of the current study would be to extend the benefits of primary indicated prevention and improve outcomes of first episode psychosis. This may produce significant social benefits for many adolescents and young adults and their families.

Short clinically-based prediction model to forecast transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk state

Objective:

The predictive accuracy of the Clinical High Risk criteria for Psychosis (CHR-P) regarding the future development of the disorder remains suboptimal. It is therefore necessary to incorporate refined risk estimation tools which can be applied at the individual subject level. The aim of the study was to develop an easy-to use, short refined risk estimation tool to predict the development of psychosis in a new CHR-P cohort recruited in European country with less established early detection services.

Methods:

A cohort of 105 CHR-P individuals was assessed with the Comprehensive Assessment of At Risk Mental States12/2006, and then followed for a median period of 36 months (25th-75th percentile:10–59 months) for transition to psychosis. A multivariate Cox regression model predicting transition was generated with preselected clinical predictors and was internally validated with 1000 bootstrap resamples.

Results:

Speech disorganization and unusual thought content were selected as potential predictors of conversion on the basis of published literature. The prediction model was significant (p < 0.0001) and confirmed that both speech disorganization (HR = 1.69; 95%CI: 1.39–2.05) and unusual thought content (HR = 1.51; 95%CI: 1.27–1.80) were significantly associated with transition. The prognostic accuracy of the model was adequate (Harrell’s c- index = 0.79), even after optimism correction through internal validation procedures (Harrell’s c-index = 0.78).

Conclusions:

The clinical prediction model developed, and internally validated, herein to predict transition from a CHR-P to psychosis may be a promising tool for use in clinical settings. It has been incorporated into an online tool available at:https://link.konsta.com.pl/psychosis. Future external replication studies are needed.

Association of Hippocampal Glutamate Levels With Adverse Outcomes in Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

Importance

Preclinical and human data suggest that hippocampal dysfunction plays a critical role in the onset of psychosis. Neural hyperactivity in the hippocampus is thought to drive an increase in subcortical dopamine function through glutamatergic projections to the striatum.

Objective

To examine the association between hippocampal glutamate levels in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis and their subsequent clinical outcomes.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study of 86 individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis and 30 healthy control individuals, with a mean follow-up of 18.5 months, was conducted between November 1, 2011, and November 1, 2017, at early detection services in London and Cambridge, United Kingdom.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Concentrations of glutamate and other metabolites were measured in the left hippocampus using 3-T proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy at the first clinical presentation. At follow-up, clinical outcomes were assessed in terms of transition or nontransition to psychosis using the Comprehensive Assessment of the At-Risk Mental State criteria and the level of overall functioning using the Global Assessment of Function scale.

Results

Of 116 total participants, 86 were at clinical high risk for psychosis (50 [58%] male; mean [SD] age, 22.4 [3.5] years) and 30 were healthy controls (14 [47%] male; mean [SD] age, 24.7 [3.8] years). At follow-up, 12 clinical high-risk individuals developed a first episode of psychosis whereas 74 clinical high-risk individuals did not; 19 clinical high-risk individuals showed good overall functioning (Global Assessment of Function ≥65), whereas 38 clinical high-risk individuals had a poor functional outcome (Global Assessment of Function <65). Compared with clinical high-risk individuals who did not become psychotic, clinical high-risk individuals who developed psychosis showed higher hippocampal glutamate levels (mean [SD], 8.33 [1.48] vs 9.16 [1.28] glutamate levels; P = .048). The clinical high-risk individuals who developed psychosis also had higher myo-inositol levels (mean [SD], 7.60 [1.23] vs 6.24 [1.36] myo-inositol levels; P = .002) and higher creatine levels (mean [SD], 8.18 [0.74] vs 7.32 [1.09] creatine levels; P = .01) compared with clinical high-risk individuals who did not become psychotic, and higher myo-inositol levels compared with healthy controls (mean [SD], 7.60 [1.23] vs 6.19 [1.51] myo-inositol levels; P = .005). Higher hippocampal glutamate levels in clinical high-risk individuals were also associated with a poor functional outcome (mean [SD], 8.83 [1.43] vs 7.76 [1.40] glutamate levels; P = .02). In the logistic regression analyses, hippocampal glutamate levels were significantly associated with clinical outcome in terms of transition and nontransition to psychosis (β = 0.48; odds ratio = 1.61; 95% CI, 1.00-2.59; P = .05) and overall functioning (β = 0.53; odds ratio = 1.71; 95% CI, 1.10-2.66; P = .02).

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings indicate that adverse clinical outcomes in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis may be associated with an increase in baseline hippocampal glutamate levels, as well as an increase in myo-inositol and creatine levels. This conclusion suggests that these measures could contribute to the stratification of clinical high-risk individuals according to future clinical outcomes.

Unmet needs in patients with brief psychotic disorders: Too ill for clinical high risk services and not ill enough for first episode services

BACKGROUND

Patients with acute and transient psychotic disorders (ATPDs) are by definition remitting, but have a high risk of developing persistent psychoses, resembling a subgroup of individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P). Their pathways to care, treatment offered and long-term clinical outcomes beyond risk to psychosis are unexplored. We conducted an electronic health record-based retrospective cohort study including patients with ATPDs within the SLaM NHS Trust and followed-up to 8 years.

METHODS

A total of 2561 ATPDs were included in the study. A minority were detected (8%) and treated (18%) by Early Intervention services (EIS) and none by CHR-P services. Patients were offered a clinical follow-up of 350.40 ± 589.90 days. The cumulative incidence of discharges was 40% at 3 months, 60% at 1 year, 69% at 2 years, 77% at 4 years, and 82% at 8 years. Treatment was heterogeneous: the majority of patients received antipsychotics (up to 52%), only a tiny minority psychotherapy (up to 8%).

RESULTS

Over follow-up, 32.88% and 28.54% of ATPDS received at least one mental health hospitalization or one compulsory hospital admission under the Mental Health Act, respectively. The mean number of days spent in psychiatric hospital was 66.39 ± 239.44 days.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of ATPDs are not detected/treated by EIS or CHR-P services, receive heterogeneous treatments and short-term clinical follow-up. ATPDs have a high risk of developing severe clinical outcomes beyond persistent psychotic disorders and unmet clinical needs that are not targeted by current mental health services.

Transdiagnostic Individualized Clinically Based Risk Calculator for the Detection of Individuals at Risk and the Prediction of Psychosis: Model Refinement Including Nonlinear Effects of Age

Background: The first rate-limiting step for primary indicated prevention of psychosis is the detection of young people who may be at risk. The ability of specialized clinics to detect individuals at risk for psychosis is limited. A clinically based, individualized, transdiagnostic risk calculator has been developed and externally validated to improve the detection of individuals at risk in secondary mental health care. This calculator employs core sociodemographic and clinical predictors, including age, which is defined in linear terms. Recent evidence has suggested a nonlinear impact of age on the probability of psychosis onset. Aim: To define at a meta-analytical level the function linking age and probability of psychosis onset. To incorporate this function in a refined version of the transdiagnostic risk calculator and to test its prognostic performance, compared to the original specification. Design: Secondary analyses on a previously published meta-analysis and clinical register-based cohort study based on 2008-2015 routine secondary mental health care in South London and Maudsley (SLaM) National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust. Participants: All patients receiving a first index diagnosis of non-organic/non-psychotic mental disorder within SLaM NHS Trust in the period 2008-2015. Main outcome measure: Prognostic accuracy (Harrell's C). Results: A total of 91,199 patients receiving a first index diagnosis of non-organic and non-psychotic mental disorder within SLaM NHS Trust were included in the derivation (33,820) or external validation (54,716) datasets. The mean follow-up was 1,588 days. The meta-analytical estimates showed that a second-degree fractional polynomial model with power (-2, -1: age1 = age^-2 and age2 = age^-1) was the best-fitting model (P < 0.001). The refined model that included this function showed an excellent prognostic accuracy in the external validation (Harrell's C = 0.805, 95% CI from 0.790 to 0.819), which was statistically higher than the original model, although of modest magnitude (Harrell's C change = 0.0136, 95% CIs from 0.006 to 0.021, P < 0.001). Conclusions: The use of a refined version of the clinically based, individualized, transdiagnostic risk calculator, which allows for nonlinearity in the association between age and risk of psychosis onset, may offer a modestly improved prognostic performance. This calculator may be particularly useful in young individuals at risk of developing psychosis who access secondary mental health care.

Pan-London Network for Psychosis-Prevention (PNP)

Background: The empirical success of the Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) paradigm is determined by the concurrent integration of efficient detection of cases at-risk, accurate prognosis, and effective preventive treatment within specialized clinical services. The characteristics of the CHR-P services are relatively under-investigated. Method: A Pan-London Network for psychosis prevention (PNP) was created across urban CHR-P services. These services were surveyed to collect the following: description of the service and catchment area, outreach, service users, interventions, and outcomes. The results were analyzed with descriptive statistics and Kaplan Meier failure function. Results: The PNP included five CHR-P services across two NHS Trusts: Outreach and Support In South-London (OASIS) in Lambeth and Southwark, OASIS in Croydon and Lewisham, Tower Hamlets Early Detection Service (THEDS), City & Hackney At-Risk Mental State Service (HEADS UP) and Newham Early Intervention Service (NEIS). The PNP serves a total population of 2,318,515 Londoners (830,889; age, 16-35 years), with a yearly recruitment capacity of 220 CHR-P individuals (age, 22.55 years). Standalone teams (OASIS and THEDS) are more established and successful than teams that share their resources with other mental health services (HEADS UP, NEIS). Characteristics of the catchment areas, outreach and service users, differ across PNP services; all of them offer psychotherapy to prevent psychosis. The PNP is supporting several CHR-P translational research projects. Conclusions: The PNP is the largest CHR-P clinical network in the UK; it represents a reference benchmark for implementing detection, prognosis, and care in the real-world clinical routine, as well as for translating research innovations into practice.

Basic Self-Disturbances Related to Reduced Anterior Cingulate Volume in Subjects at Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis

Introduction: Alterations of the "pre-reflective" sense of first-person perspective (e.g., of the "basic self") are characteristic features of schizophrenic spectrum disorders and are significantly present in the prodromal phase of psychosis and in subjects at ultra-high risk for psychosis (UHR). Studies in healthy controls suggest that neurobiological substrate of the basic self involves cortical midline structures, such as the anterior and posterior cingulate cortices. Neuroimaging studies have identified neuroanatomical cortical midline structure abnormalities in schizophrenic spectrum disorders. Objectives: i) To compare basic self-disturbances levels in UHR subjects and controls and ii) to assess the relationship between basic self-disturbances and alterations in cortical midline structures volume in UHR subjects. Methods: Thirty-one UHR subjects (27 antipsychotic-naïve) and 16 healthy controls were assessed using the 57-item semistructured Examination of Anomalous Self-Experiences (EASE) interview. All subjects were scanned using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at 3 T, and gray matter volume was measured in a priori defined regions of interest (ROIs) in the cortical midline structures. Results: EASE scores were much higher in UHR subjects than controls (p < 0.001). The UHR group had smaller anterior cingulate volume than controls (p = 0.037). There were no structural brain imaging alterations between UHR individuals with or without self-disturbances. Within the UHR sample, the subgroup with higher EASE scores had smaller anterior cingulate volumes than UHR subjects with lower EASE scores and controls (p = 0.018). In the total sample, anterior cingulate volume was inversely correlated with the EASE score (R = 0.52, p < 0.016). Conclusions: Basic self-disturbances in UHR subjects appear to be related to reductions in anterior cingulate volume.

Improving the Detection of Individuals at Clinical Risk for Psychosis in the Community, Primary and Secondary Care: An Integrated Evidence-Based Approach

Background: The first rate-limiting step for improving outcomes of psychosis through preventive interventions in people at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) is the ability to accurately detect individuals who are at risk for the development of this disorder. Currently, this detection power is sub-optimal. Methods: This is a conceptual and nonsystematic review of the literature, focusing on the work conducted by leading research teams in the field. The results will be structured in the following sections: understanding the CHR-P assessment, validity of the CHR-P as a universal risk state for psychosis, and improving the detection of at-risk individuals in secondary mental health care, in primary care, and in the community. Results: CHR-P instruments can provide adequate prognostic accuracy for the prediction of psychosis provided that they are employed in samples who have undergone risk enrichment during recruitment. This substantially limits their detection power in real-world settings. Furthermore, there is initial evidence that not all cases of psychosis onset are preceded by a CHR-P stage. A transdiagnostic individualized risk calculator could be used to automatically screen secondary mental health care medical notes to detect those at risk of psychosis and refer them to standard CHR-P assessment. Similar risk estimation tools for use in primary care are under development and promise to boost the detection of patients at risk in this setting. To improve the detection of young people who may be at risk of psychosis in the community, it is necessary to adopt digital and/or sequential screening approaches. These solutions are based on recent scientific evidence and have potential for implementation internationally. Conclusions: The best strategy to improve the detection of patients at risk for psychosis is to implement a clinical research program that integrates different but complementary detection approaches across community, primary, and secondary care. These solutions are based on recent scientific advancements in the development of risk estimation tools and e-health approaches and have the potential to be applied across different clinical settings.

Acute stress and substance use as predictors of suicidal behaviour in acute and transient psychotic disorders

Several authors have reported high rates of suicidal behaviour in acute and transient psychotic disorders (ATPD). However, the literature in this area remains scarce. We wanted to find out whether there are predictors of suicidal behaviour in ATPD. Of 1032 psychosis admissions examined over a five-year period, ATPD was confirmed in 39 patients according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) diagnostic criteria. These patients were classified as suicidal behaviour (20.5%) or non-risk (79.5%) using a structured interview to assess suicidal risk. The following variables were analysed: previous history of suicide attempt or deliberate self-harm, history of depressive episodes, previous substance use history, education, ATPD subtype (polymorphic vs. non-polymorphic), type of onset (abrupt vs. acute), and presence of associated acute stress. Multivariate analysis revealed that acute stress and substance use are significantly associated with suicidal behaviour in ATPDs. To our knowledge, this is the first study identifying independent risk factors that could predict suicidal behaviour in individuals with ATPD.

Neurocognitive dysfunction in subjects at clinical high risk for psychosis: A meta-analysis

Findings of neurocognitive dysfunction in subjects at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) have been controversial. This meta-analysis systematically examined studies of neurocognitive functions using the MATRICS Consensus Cognitive Battery (MCCB) in CHR-P. An independent literature search of both English and Chinese databases was conducted by two reviewers. Standardized mean difference (SMD) was calculated using a random effects model to evaluate the effect size of the meta-analytic results. Six case-control studies (n = 396) comparing neurocognitive functions between CHR-P subjects (n = 197) and healthy controls (n = 199) using the MCCB were identified; 4 (66.7%) studies were rated as "high quality". Compared to healthy controls, CHR-P subjects showed impairment with large effect size in overall cognition (n = 128, SMD = -1.00, 95%CI: -1.38, -0.63, P < 0.00001; I² = 2%), processing speed (SMD = -1.21) and attention/vigilance (SMD = -0.83), and with medium effect size in working memory (SMD = -0.76), reasoning and problem solving (SMD = -0.71), visual (SMD = -0.68) and verbal learning (SMD = -0.67). No significant difference between CHR-P subjects and controls was found regarding social cognition (SMD = -0.33, 95%CI: -0.76, 0.10, P = 0.14; I² = 70%) with small effect size. Apart from social cognition, CHR-P subjects performed worse than healthy control in all MCCB cognitive domains, particularly in processing speed, attention/vigilance and working memory.

Value of schizophrenia treatment I: The patient journey

BACKGROUND

The aim of the European Brain Council project "The Value of Treatment" was to provide evidence-based, cost-effective policy recommendations for a patient-centered and sustainable coordinated care model for brain disorders. The first part of schizophrenia study examined the needs and gaps in the patients' care pathway.

METHODS

Descriptive analysis was based on an inventory of needs and treatment opportunities, using focus group sessions, expert interviews, users' input, and literature review. Three patient pathways were selected: indicated prevention, duration of untreated psychosis, and relapse prevention.

RESULTS

The analysis identified several critical barriers to optimal treatment. Available health care services often miss or delay detection of symptoms and diagnosis in at-risk individuals. There is a lack of illness awareness among patients, families, and the public; scarcity of information, training and education among primary care providers; stigmatizing beliefs. Early symptom recognition and timely intervention result in better outcome and prognosis; effective management leads to a functional recovery. In the current model of care, there is insufficient cooperation between health and social care providers, patients and families, inadequate utilization of pharmacological and psychosocial interventions, lacking patient monitoring, and low implementation of integrated community care.

CONCLUSIONS

Early detection and early intervention programs, timely intervention, and relapse prevention are essential for effective management of schizophrenia. It requires a paradigm shift from symptom control, achieving and maintaining remission, to the emphasis on recovery. Since the current services are not able to accomplish this goal, changes in mental health policies are needed.

A history of obstetric complications is associated with the risk of progression from an at risk mental state to psychosis

OBJECTIVE

Clinical criteria for diagnosing Clinical High Risk for psychosis are now available. However, an understanding of the factors modulating the risk of subsequent development of frank psychosis in "at risk" individuals remains elusive. The aim of the study was to identify associations between obstetric history and the development of psychotic disorders in individuals with an At Risk Mental State (ARMS).

METHODS

Obstetric data was obtained from the medical records of 82 individuals meeting ARMS criteria. The participants were followed up for a mean period of 42.3 (±28.3) months for transition to psychosis.

RESULTS

A history of at least one obstetric complication (OC) endorsed as definite on the Lewis and Murray Obstetric Complications Scale was found to be associated with increased risk of transition to schizophrenia (OR: 6.57, 95% CI:1.89-22.85). The number of definite OCs was found to be positively correlated with the proportion of converters (p<0.0001). The probability of conversion to schizophrenia was found to increase with a decrease of Apgar-1 and Apgar-5 scores (ORs: 0.40, 95% CI:0.22-0.74 and 0.25, 95% CI:0.10-0.63, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings emphasise the potential value of including obstetric data in algorithms estimating the likelihood of transition of an ARMS to full-blown psychosis.

Efficacy and Acceptability of Interventions for Attenuated Positive Psychotic Symptoms in Individuals at Clinical High Risk of Psychosis: A Network Meta-Analysis

Background: Attenuated positive psychotic symptoms represent the defining features of the clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) criteria. The effectiveness of each available treatment for reducing attenuated positive psychotic symptoms remains undetermined. This network meta-analysis (NMA) investigates the consistency and magnitude of the effects of treatments on attenuated positive psychotic symptoms in CHR-P individuals, weighting the findings for acceptability. Methods: Web of Science (MEDLINE), PsycInfo, CENTRAL and unpublished/gray literature were searched up to July 18, 2017. Randomized controlled trials in CHR-P individuals, comparing at least two interventions and reporting on attenuated positive psychotic symptoms at follow-up were included, following PRISMA guidelines. The primary outcome (efficacy) was level of attenuated positive psychotic symptoms at 6 and 12 months; effect sizes reported as standardized mean difference (SMD) and 95% CIs in mean follow-up scores between two compared interventions. The secondary outcome was treatment acceptability [reported as odds ratio (OR)]. NMAs were conducted for both primary and secondary outcomes. Treatments were cluster-ranked by surface under the cumulative ranking curve values for efficacy and acceptability. Assessments of biases, assumptions, sensitivity analyses and complementary pairwise meta-analyses for the primary outcome were also conducted. Results: Overall, 1,707 patients from 14 studies (57% male, mean age = 20) were included, representing the largest evidence synthesis of the effect of preventive treatments on attenuated positive psychotic symptoms to date. In the NMA for efficacy, ziprasidone + Needs-Based Intervention (NBI) was found to be superior to NBI (SMD = -1.10, 95% CI -2.04 to -0.15), Cognitive Behavioral Therapy-French and Morrison protocol (CBT-F) + NBI (SMD = -1.03, 95% CI -2.05 to -0.01), and risperidone + CBT-F + NBI (SMD = -1.18, 95% CI -2.29 to -0.07) at 6 months. However, these findings did not survive sensitivity analyses. For acceptability, aripiprazole + NBI was significantly more acceptable than olanzapine + NBI (OR = 3.73; 95% CI 1.01 to 13.81) at 12 months only. No further significant NMA effects were observed at 6 or 12 months. The results were not affected by inconsistency or evident small-study effects, but only two studies had an overall low risk of bias. Conclusion: On the basis of the current literature, there is no robust evidence to favor any specific intervention for improving attenuated positive psychotic symptoms in CHR-P individuals.

Semistructured Interview for Bipolar At Risk States (SIBARS)

The external prognostic accuracy of Bipolar At Risk (BAR) criteria is undetermined and no psychometric tools are available to measure them. We present here three studies that overcome these limitations. Study 1 and 2 investigated the prognostic accuracy (Harrell's C) of the original BAR and revised Bipolar At Risk States (BARS) criteria respectively for the prediction of bipolar disorders, using a retrospective cohort of individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P). Study 3 validated externally the prognostic accuracy of a newly developed Semistructured Interview of At Risk Bipolar States (SIBARS) in an independent prospective CHR-P cohort. In study 1 (n = 205), those meeting BAR criteria had an increased risk of developing bipolar disorders (HR = 5.30) relative to those not meeting them, but the prognostic accuracy was poor (Harrell's C = 0.659). In study 2 (n = 205), those meeting the refined BARS criteria had a higher risk of developing bipolar disorders than those not meeting them (HR = 12.364), with an adequate prognostic accuracy (Harrell's C = 0.777). Study 3 (n = 71) confirmed that SIBARS criteria had an adequate prognostic accuracy (Harrell's C = 0.742) and clinical utility. Overall, these findings suggest that the SIBARS could be used for the detection of individuals at risk of developing bipolar disorders in CHR-P services.

Lack of evidence to favor specific preventive interventions in psychosis: a network meta-analysis

Preventing psychosis in patients at clinical high risk may be a promising avenue for pre-emptively ameliorating outcomes of the most severe psychiatric disorder. However, information on how each preventive intervention fares against other currently available treatment options remains unavailable. The aim of the current study was to quantify the consistency and magnitude of effects of specific preventive interventions for psychosis, comparing different treatments in a network meta-analysis. PsycINFO, Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and unpublished/grey literature were searched up to July 18, 2017, to identify randomized controlled trials conducted in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis, comparing different types of intervention and reporting transition to psychosis. Two reviewers independently extracted data. Data were synthesized using network meta-analyses. The primary outcome was transition to psychosis at different time points and the secondary outcome was treatment acceptability (dropout due to any cause). Effect sizes were reported as odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Sixteen studies (2,035 patients, 57% male, mean age 20.1 years) reported on risk of transition. The treatments tested were needs-based interventions (NBI); omega-3 + NBI; ziprasidone + NBI; olanzapine + NBI; aripiprazole + NBI; integrated psychological interventions; family therapy + NBI; D-serine + NBI; cognitive behavioural therapy, French & Morrison protocol (CBT-F) + NBI; CBT-F + risperidone + NBI; and cognitive behavioural therapy, van der Gaag protocol (CBT-V) + CBT-F + NBI. The network meta-analysis showed no evidence of significantly superior efficacy of any one intervention over the others at 6 and 12 months (insufficient data were available after 12 months). Similarly, there was no evidence for intervention differences in acceptability at either time point. Tests for inconsistency were non-significant and sensitivity analyses controlling for different clustering of interventions and biases did not materially affect the interpretation of the results. In summary, this study indicates that, to date, there is no evidence that any specific intervention is particularly effective over the others in preventing transition to psychosis. Further experimental research is needed.

Long term outcomes of acute and transient psychotic disorders: The missed opportunity of preventive interventions

BACKGROUND

Acute and transient psychotic disorders (ATPD) are characterized by an acute onset and a remitting course, and overlap with subgroups of the clinical high-risk state for psychosis. The long-term course and outcomes of ATPD are not completely clear.

METHODS

Electronic health record-based retrospective cohort study, including all patients who received a first index diagnosis of ATPD (F23, ICD-10) within the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) National Health Service Trust, between 1 st April 2006 and 15th June 2017. The primary outcome was risk of developing persistent psychotic disorders, defined as the development of any ICD-10 diagnoses of non-organic psychotic disorders. Cumulative risk of psychosis onset was estimated through Kaplan-Meier failure functions (non-competing risks) and Greenwood confidence intervals.

RESULTS

A total of 3074 patients receiving a first index diagnosis of ATPD (F23, ICD-10) within SLaM were included. The mean follow-up was 1495 days. After 8-year, 1883 cases (61.26%) retained the index diagnosis of ATPD; the remaining developed psychosis. The cumulative incidence (Kaplan-Meier failure function) of risk of developing any ICD-10 non-organic psychotic disorder was 16.10% at 1-year (95%CI 14.83-17.47%), 28.41% at 2-year (95%CI 26.80-30.09%), 33.96% at 3-year (95% CI 32.25-35.75%), 36.85% at 4-year (95%CI 35.07-38.69%), 40.99% at 5-year (95% CI 39.12-42.92%), 42.58% at 6-year (95%CI 40.67-44.55%), 44.65% at 7-year (95% CI 42.66-46.69%), and 46.25% at 8-year (95% CI 44.17-48.37%). The cumulative risk of schizophrenia-spectrum disorder at 8-year was 36.14% (95% CI 34.09-38.27%).

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with ATPD have a very high risk of developing persistent psychotic disorders and may benefit from early detection and preventive treatments to improve their outcomes.

The Ultra-High-Risk for psychosis groups: Evidence to maintain the status quo

Individuals are considered Ultra-High-Risk (UHR) for psychosis if they meet a set of standardised criteria including presumed genetic vulnerability (Trait), or a recent history of Attenuated Psychotic Symptoms (APS) or Brief Limited Intermittent Psychotic Symptoms (BLIPS). Recent calls to revise these criteria have arisen from evidence that Trait, APS and BLIPS groups may transition to psychosis at different rates. Concurrently, it has become clear that the UHR status confers clinical risk beyond transition to psychosis. Specifically, most UHR individuals will not develop psychosis, but will experience high rates of non-psychotic disorders, persistent APS and poor long-term functional outcomes. Rather than focus on transition, the present study investigated whether UHR groups differ in their broader clinical risk profile by examining baseline clinical characteristics and long-term outcomes other than transition to psychosis. Four UHR groups were defined: Trait-only, APS-only, Trait+APS, and any BLIPS. Participants (N=702) were recruited upon entry to early intervention services and followed-up over a period of up to 13years (mean=4.53, SD=3.84). The groups evidenced similar symptom severity (SANS for negative symptoms, BPRS for positive and depression/anxiety symptoms) and psychosocial functioning (SOFAS, GAF, QLS) at baseline and follow-up as well as similar prevalence of non-psychotic disorders at follow-up. Our findings demonstrate that UHR groups evidence a similar clinical risk profile when we expand this beyond transition to psychosis, and consequently support maintaining the existing UHR criteria.

Lack of Diagnostic Pluripotentiality in Patients at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: Specificity of Comorbidity Persistence and Search for Pluripotential Subgroups

More than 20 years after the clinical high risk syndrome for psychosis (CHR) was first articulated, it remains controversial whether the CHR syndrome predicts onset of psychosis with diagnostic specificity or predicts pluripotential diagnostic outcomes. Recently, analyses of observational studies, however, have suggested that the CHR syndrome is not pluripotential for emergent diagnostic outcomes. The present report conducted additional analyses in previously reported samples to determine (1) whether comorbid disorders were more likely to persist in CHR patients compared to a comparison group of patients who responded to CHR recruitment efforts but did not meet criteria, termed help-seeking comparison subjects (HSC); and (2) whether clinically defined pluripotential CHR subgroups could be identified. All data were derived from 2 multisite studies in which DSM-IV structured diagnostic interviews were conducted at baseline and at 6-month intervals. Across samples we observed persistence of any nonpsychotic disorder in 80/147 CHR cases (54.4%) and in 48/84 HSC cases (57.1%, n.s.). Findings with persistence of anxiety, depressive, and bipolar disorders considered separately were similar. Efforts to discover pluripotential CHR subgroups were unsuccessful. These findings add additional support to the view that the CHR syndrome is not pluripotential for predicting various diagnostic outcomes but rather is specific for predicting emergent psychosis.

Meta-analytical prognostic accuracy of the Comprehensive Assessment of at Risk Mental States (CAARMS): The need for refined prediction

Primary indicated prevention is reliant on accurate tools to predict the onset of psychosis. The gold standard assessment for detecting individuals at clinical high risk (CHR-P) for psychosis in the UK and many other countries is the Comprehensive Assessment for At Risk Mental States (CAARMS). While the prognostic accuracy of CHR-P instruments has been assessed in general, this is the first study to specifically analyse that of the CAARMS. As such, the CAARMS was used as the index test, with the reference index being psychosis onset within 2 years. Six independent studies were analysed using MIDAS (STATA 14), with a total of 1876 help-seeking subjects referred to high risk services (CHR-P+: n=892; CHR-P-: n=984). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves (SROC), quality assessment, likelihood ratios, and probability modified plots were computed, along with sensitivity analyses and meta-regressions. The current meta-analysis confirmed that the 2-year prognostic accuracy of the CAARMS is only acceptable (AUC=0.79 95% CI: 0.75-0.83) and not outstanding as previously reported. In particular, specificity was poor. Sensitivity of the CAARMS is inferior compared to the SIPS, while specificity is comparably low. However, due to the difficulties in performing these types of studies, power in this meta-analysis was low. These results indicate that refining and improving the prognostic accuracy of the CAARMS should be the mainstream area of research for the next era. Avenues of prediction improvement are critically discussed and presented to better benefit patients and improve outcomes of first episode psychosis.

Can We Predict Psychosis Outside the Clinical High-Risk State? A Systematic Review of Non-Psychotic Risk Syndromes for Mental Disorders

Recent evidence has suggested that psychosis could develop not only in people at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) but also in those with clinical risk syndromes for emergent nonpsychotic mental disorders. The proportion of people with these clinical risk syndromes who will develop psychosis rather than to other nonpsychotic mental disorders is undetermined. Electronic databases were searched for studies reporting on clinical risk syndromes for the development of emergent nonpsychotic mental disorders. Incidence of emerging psychotic and nonpsychotic mental disorders defined on the ICD or DSM. Of a total of 9 studies relating to 3006 nonpsychotic at-risk individuals were included. Within prospective studies (n = 4, sample = 1051), the pooled incidence of new psychotic disorders across these clinical risk syndromes was of 12.9 per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 4.3 to 38.6) and that of nonpsychotic disorders (n = 3, sample = 538) was of 43.5 per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 30.9 to 61.3). Psychotic disorders may emerge outside the CHR-P paradigm, from clinical risk syndromes for incident nonpsychotic disorders, albeit at lower rates than in the CHR-P group. The clinical risk syndromes for emerging nonpsychotic disorders may exhibit a pluripotential risk of developing several types of mental disorders compared with CHR-P. If substantiated by future research, the current findings suggest that it may be useful to move beyond the current strategy of identifying individuals meeting CHR-P criteria only.

Why transition risk to psychosis is not declining at the OASIS ultra high risk service: The hidden role of stable pretest risk enrichment

BACKGROUND

The reason for declining risk to psychosis across individuals assessed and meeting Ultra High Risk (UHR) criteria is still unclear. No studies have investigated the potential substantial role of the underlying risk enrichment across all the individuals undergoing an UHR assessment.

METHODS

Cohort study including all non-psychotic subjects who were assessed on suspicion of psychosis risk by the OASIS UHR service in the period 2001 to 2015. Posttest (after UHR assessment) and pretest risk (before UHR assessment) of psychosis were stratified and compared across three time periods (2001-2005, 2006-2010, 2011-2015) with Cox analysis and modulating factors were investigated.

RESULTS

The posttest risk of psychosis at the OASIS service has increased from the initial pilot years of the service (2001-2005) and then stabilised and not declined over the following decade (2006-2010 and 2011-2015). This was paralleled by a similar course of pretest risk for psychosis. Stability of pretest risk for psychosis over the past decade was associated with a lack of change in ethnicity and to counterweighting changes in the type of referral sources over different time periods.

CONCLUSIONS

The time course of transition risk to psychosis in UHR services is strictly associated with the time course of pretest risk enrichment. If the latter remains stable over time, as for the OASIS service, no declining transition risk is observed over the most recent years. Pretest risk enrichment is determined by recruitment and sampling strategies. This study confirms the need to control these factors in the UHR field.

What causes psychosis? An umbrella review of risk and protective factors

Psychosis is a heterogeneous psychiatric condition for which a multitude of risk and protective factors have been suggested. This umbrella review aimed to classify the strength of evidence for the associations between each factor and psychotic disorders whilst controlling for several biases. The Web of Knowledge database was searched to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies which examined associations between socio-demographic, parental, perinatal, later factors or antecedents and psychotic disorders, and which included a comparison group of healthy controls, published from 1965 to January 31, 2017. The literature search and data extraction followed PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines. The association between each factor and ICD or DSM diagnoses of non-organic psychotic disorders was graded into convincing, highly suggestive, suggestive, weak, or non-significant according to a standardized classification based on: number of psychotic cases, random-effects p value, largest study 95% confidence interval, heterogeneity between studies, 95% prediction interval, small study effect, and excess significance bias. In order to assess evidence for temporality of association, we also conducted sensitivity analyses restricted to data from prospective studies. Fifty-five meta-analyses or systematic reviews were included in the umbrella review, corresponding to 683 individual studies and 170 putative risk or protective factors for psychotic disorders. Only the ultra-high-risk state for psychosis (odds ratio, OR=9.32, 95% CI: 4.91-17.72) and Black-Caribbean ethnicity in England (OR=4.87, 95% CI: 3.96-6.00) showed convincing evidence of association. Six factors were highly suggestive (ethnic minority in low ethnic density area, second generation immigrants, trait anhedonia, premorbid IQ, minor physical anomalies, and olfactory identification ability), and nine were suggestive (urbanicity, ethnic minority in high ethnic density area, first generation immigrants, North-African immigrants in Europe, winter/spring season of birth in Northern hemisphere, childhood social withdrawal, childhood trauma, Toxoplasma gondii IgG, and non-right handedness). When only prospective studies were considered, the evidence was convincing for ultra-high-risk state and suggestive for urbanicity only. In summary, this umbrella review found several factors to be associated with psychotic disorders with different levels of evidence. These risk or protective factors represent a starting point for further etiopathological research and for the improvement of the prediction of psychosis.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Significance of DSM-5 Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome in Services for Individuals at Ultra High Risk for Psychosis

BACKGROUND

The diagnostic and prognostic significance of the DSM-5-defined Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome (DSM-5-APS) in individuals undergoing an ultra high risk (UHR) clinical assessment for suspicion of psychosis risk is unknown.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study including all consecutive help-seeking individuals undergoing both a DSM-5-APS and a Comprehensive Assessment of At Risk Mental States (CAARMS 12/2006) assessment for psychosis risk at the Outreach and Support in South London (OASIS) UHR service (March 2013-April 2014). The diagnostic significance of DSM-5-APS was assessed with percent overall agreement, prevalence bias adjusted kappa, Bowker's test, Stuart-Maxwell test, residual analysis; the prognostic significance with Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier failure function, time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) and net benefits analysis. The impact of specific revisions of the DSM-5-APS was further tested.

RESULT

In 203 help-seeking individuals undergoing UHR assessment, the agreement between the DSM-5-APS and the CAARMS 12/2006 was only moderate (kappa 0.59). Among 142 nonpsychotic cases, those meeting DSM-5-APS criteria had a 5-fold probability (HR = 5.379) of developing psychosis compared to those not meeting DSM-5-APS criteria, with a 21-month cumulative risk of psychosis of 28.17% vs 6.49%, respectively. The DSM-5-APS prognostic accuracy was acceptable (AUC 0.76 at 24 months) and similar to the CAARMS 12/2006. The DSM-5-APS designation may be clinically useful to guide the provision of indicated interventions within a 7%-35% (2-year) range of psychosis risk. The removal of the criterion E or C of the DSM-5-APS may improve its prognostic performance and transdiagnostic value.

CONCLUSIONS

The DSM-5-APS designation may be clinically useful in individuals accessing clinical services for psychosis prevention.

Comorbid diagnoses for youth at clinical high risk of psychosis

Several studies have demonstrated that youth at clinical high risk (CHR) of developing psychosis have a high prevalence of comorbid psychiatric disorders. Less is known about the impact of comorbid diagnoses on later conversion to psychosis and the change over time. The aim of this study was to determine the frequency and distribution of psychiatric diagnoses at baseline and over time in the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS 2) and the role of comorbid diagnoses in conversion to psychosis. The NAPLS 2 sample consisted of 744 CHR youth and 276 healthy controls. Only 21% of the CHR group did not have a comorbid diagnosis with many have 2-3 DSM-IV comorbid diagnoses. The most common diagnoses were anxiety and depressive disorders, which did improve over time. The only diagnosis at baseline that differentiated the converters from the non-converters was cannabis misuse. Comorbidity, except for cannabis use, was essentially independent of clinical outcome. It is possible that those with comorbid diagnoses are preferentially the help-seeking individuals that present for help in our clinics and research projects and that those who are at risk but do not have a comorbid diagnosis may not be seeking help in the prodromal phase.

Improving outcomes of first-episode psychosis: an overview

Outcomes of psychotic disorders are associated with high personal, familiar, societal and clinical burden. There is thus an urgent clinical and societal need for improving those outcomes. Recent advances in research knowledge have opened new opportunities for ameliorating outcomes of psychosis during its early clinical stages. This paper critically reviews these opportunities, summarizing the state-of-the-art knowledge and focusing on recent discoveries and future avenues for first episode research and clinical interventions. Candidate targets for primary universal prevention of psychosis at the population level are discussed. Potentials offered by primary selective prevention in asymptomatic subgroups (stage 0) are presented. Achievements of primary selected prevention in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (stage 1) are summarized, along with challenges and limitations of its implementation in clinical practice. Early intervention and secondary prevention strategies at the time of a first episode of psychosis (stage 2) are critically discussed, with a particular focus on minimizing the duration of untreated psychosis, improving treatment response, increasing patients' satisfaction with treatment, reducing illicit substance abuse and preventing relapses. Early intervention and tertiary prevention strategies at the time of an incomplete recovery (stage 3) are further discussed, in particular with respect to addressing treatment resistance, improving well-being and social skills with reduction of burden on the family, treatment of comorbid substance use, and prevention of multiple relapses and disease progression. In conclusion, to improve outcomes of a complex, heterogeneous syndrome such as psychosis, it is necessary to globally adopt complex models integrating a clinical staging framework and coordinated specialty care programmes that offer pre-emptive interventions to high-risk groups identified across the early stages of the disorder. Only a systematic implementation of these models of care in the national health care systems will render these strategies accessible to the 23 million people worldwide suffering from the most severe psychiatric disorders.

Development and Validation of a Clinically Based Risk Calculator for the Transdiagnostic Prediction of Psychosis

Importance

The overall effect of At Risk Mental State (ARMS) services for the detection of individuals who will develop psychosis in secondary mental health care is undetermined.

Objective

To measure the proportion of individuals with a first episode of psychosis detected by ARMS services in secondary mental health services, and to develop and externally validate a practical web-based individualized risk calculator tool for the transdiagnostic prediction of psychosis in secondary mental health care.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Clinical register-based cohort study. Patients were drawn from electronic, real-world, real-time clinical records relating to 2008 to 2015 routine secondary mental health care in the South London and the Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust. The study included all patients receiving a first index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within the South London and the Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust in the period between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2015. Data analysis began on September 1, 2016.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Risk of development of nonorganic International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision psychotic disorders.

Results

A total of 91 199 patients receiving a first index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within South London and the Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust were included in the derivation (n = 33 820) or external validation (n = 54 716) data sets. The mean age was 32.97 years, 50.88% were men, and 61.05% were white race/ethnicity. The mean follow-up was 1588 days. The overall 6-year risk of psychosis in secondary mental health care was 3.02 (95% CI, 2.88-3.15), which is higher than the 6-year risk in the local general population (0.62). Compared with the ARMS designation, all of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision diagnoses showed a lower risk of psychosis, with the exception of bipolar mood disorders (similar risk) and brief psychotic episodes (higher risk). The ARMS designation accounted only for a small proportion of transitions to psychosis (n = 52 of 1001; 5.19% in the derivation data set), indicating the need for transdiagnostic prediction of psychosis in secondary mental health care. A prognostic risk stratification model based on preselected variables, including index diagnosis, age, sex, age by sex, and race/ethnicity, was developed and externally validated, showing good performance and potential clinical usefulness.

Conclusions and Relevance

This online individualized risk calculator can be of clinical usefulness for the transdiagnostic prediction of psychosis in secondary mental health care. The risk calculator can help to identify those patients at risk of developing psychosis who require an ARMS assessment and specialized care. The use of this calculator may eventually facilitate the implementation of an individualized provision of preventive focused interventions and improve outcomes of first episode psychosis.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Significance of Brief Limited Intermittent Psychotic Symptoms (BLIPS) in Individuals at Ultra High Risk

BACKGROUND

Brief Limited Intermittent Psychotic Symptoms (BLIPS) are key inclusion criteria to define individuals at ultra high risk for psychosis (UHR). Their diagnostic and prognostic significance is unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To address the baseline diagnostic relationship between BLIPS and the ICD-10 categories and examine the longitudinal prognostic impact of clinical and sociodemographic factors.

METHODS

Prospective long-term study in UHR individuals meeting BLIPS criteria. Sociodemographic and clinical data, including ICD-10 diagnoses, were automatically drawn from electronic health records and analyzed using Kaplan-Meier failure function (1-survival), Cox regression models, bootstrapping methods, and Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

Eighty BLIPS were included. At baseline, two-thirds (68%) of BLIPS met the diagnostic criteria for ICD-10 Acute and Transient Psychotic Disorder (ATPD), most featuring schizophrenic symptoms. The remaining individuals met ICD-10 diagnostic criteria for unspecified nonorganic psychosis (15%), mental and behavioral disorders due to use of cannabinoids (11%), and mania with psychotic symptoms (6%). The overall 5-year risk of psychosis was 0.54. Recurrent episodes of BLIPS were relatively rare (11%) but associated with a higher risk of psychosis (hazard ratio [HR] 3.98) than mono-episodic BLIPS at the univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis revealed that seriously disorganizing or dangerous features increased greatly (HR = 4.39) the risk of psychosis (0.89 at 5-year). Bootstrapping confirmed the robustness of this predictor (area under the ROC = 0.74).

CONCLUSIONS

BLIPS are most likely to fulfill the ATPD criteria, mainly acute schizophrenic subtypes. About half of BLIPS cases develops a psychotic disorder during follow-up. Recurrent BLIPS are relatively rare but tend to develop into psychosis. BLIPS with seriously disorganizing or dangerous features have an extreme high risk of psychosis.