SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among the general population and healthcare workers in India, December 2020-January 2021

Airborne magnetic nanoparticles may contribute to COVID-19 outbreak: Relationships in Greece and Iran

This work attempts to shed light on whether the COVID-19 pandemic rides on airborne pollution. In particular, a two-city study provides evidence that PM_2.5 contributes to the timing and severity of the epidemic, without adjustment for confounders. The publicly available data of deaths between March and October 2020, updated it on May 30, 2021, and the average seasonal concentrations of PM_2.5 pollution over the previous years in Thessaloniki, the second-largest city of Greece, were investigated. It was found that changes in coronavirus-related deaths follow changes in air pollution and that the correlation between the two data sets is maximized at the lag time of one month. Similar data from Tehran were gathered for comparison. The results of this study underscore that it is possible, if not likely, that pollution nanoparticles are related to COVID-19 fatalities (Granger causality, p < 0.05), contributing to the understanding of the environmental impact on pandemics.

Seroprevalence of IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in India, March 2020 to August 2021: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

India experienced 2 waves of COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 and reported the second highest caseload globally. Seroepidemiologic studies were done to track the course of the pandemic. We systematically reviewed and synthesized the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the Indian population.

METHODS

We included studies reporting seroprevalence of IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 from March 1, 2020 to August 11, 2021 and excluded studies done only among patients with COVID-19 and vaccinated individuals. We searched published databases, preprint servers, and government documents using a combination of keywords and medical subheading (MeSH) terms of "Seroprevalence AND SARS-CoV-2 AND India". We assessed risk of bias using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale, the appraisal tool for cross-sectional studies (AXIS), the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) critical appraisal tool, and WHO's statement on the Reporting of Seroepidemiological Studies for SARS-CoV-2 (ROSES-S). We calculated pooled seroprevalence along with 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) during the first (March 2020 to February 2021) and second wave (March to August 2021). We also estimated seroprevalence by selected demographic characteristics.

RESULTS

We identified 3821 studies and included 53 studies with 905379 participants after excluding duplicates, screening of titles and abstracts and full-text screening. Of the 53, 20 studies were of good quality. Some of the reviewed studies did not report adequate information on study methods (sampling = 24% (13/53); laboratory = 83% [44/53]). Studies of 'poor' quality had more than one of the following issues: unjustified sample size, nonrepresentative sample, nonclassification of nonrespondents, results unadjusted for demographics and methods insufficiently explained to enable replication. Overall pooled seroprevalence was 20.7% in the first (95% CI = 16.1 to 25.3) and 69.2% (95% CI = 64.5 to 73.8) in the second wave. Seroprevalence did not differ by age in first wave, whereas in the second, it increased with age. Seroprevalence was slightly higher among women in the second wave. In both the waves, the estimate was higher in urban than in rural areas.

CONCLUSION

Seroprevalence increased by 3-fold between the 2 waves of the pandemic in India. Our review highlights the need for designing and reporting studies using standard protocols.

Immunoglobulin G Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 Among Healthcare Workers at a Tertiary Care Center in South India

Introduction

Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2. Seroprevalence in this group may offer insights into trends to monitor and revise strategies to prevent transmission.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted in two phases among healthcare workers at a tertiary care center to detect IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Seropositivity was calculated during both phases, and possible associations were determined using regression analysis.

Results

A total of 382 and 168 HCWs took part in the two phases, respectively. IgG antibodies were detected in 13 of 382 (3.4%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2%-5.7%) and 71 of 168 (42.3%) participants in the first and second phases, respectively. Receiving at least one dose of vaccine (p < 0.001) and age (p = 0.028) were factors associated with the presence of antibodies, while gender, job type, exposure to COVID-19 cases, and comorbidities were not associated with seropositivity.

Conclusion

Serosurveys among HCWs may help identify transmission patterns and redesign infection control practices in the healthcare setting.

CIMT 2021: report on the 18th Annual Meeting of the Association for Cancer Immunotherapy

After one year of absence, the 18th Annual Meeting of the Association for Cancer Immunotherapy (CIMT), Europe’s cancer immunotherapy meeting, took place virtually from 10 to 12 May 2021. Over 850 academic and clinical professionals from 30 countries met to discuss the recent advancements in cancer immunotherapy and the current progress in COVID19-related research. This meeting report summarizes the highlights of CIMT2021.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2 ) IgG-antibody seroprevalence among quarantined population, during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic, In North West Ethiopia (from 30 April to 30 May 2020)

Objective:

The spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Ethiopia is below par understood and to date has been poorly characterized by a lower number of confirmed cases and deaths as compared with other regions of the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. We aimed to investigate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 specific IgG antibodies, using the Abbott anti-nucleocapsid IgG chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay, in two COVID-19 diagnosed and treatment centers of quarantined population during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (since 30 April–30 May 2020).

Methods:

We analyzed data of 446 quarantined individuals during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic. The data were collected using both interviewed and blood sample collection. Participants asked about demographic characteristics, COVID-19 infection symptoms, and its practice of preventive measures. Seroprevalence was determined using the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 IgG test.

Results:

The mean (± standard deviation) age of the respondent was 37.5 (±18.5) years. The estimated SARS-CoV-2 infection seroprevalence was found 4.7% (95% confidence interval: 3.1–6.2) with no significant difference on age and gender of participants. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 antibody seroprevalence was significantly associated with individuals who have been worked by moving from home to work area (adjusted odds ratio = 7.8, 95% confidence interval: 4.2–14.3, p < 0.019), not wearing masks (adjusted odds ratio = 2.4, 95% confidence interval: 1.9–3.8, p < 0.02), and baseline comorbidity (adjusted odds ratio = 6.3, 95% confidence interval: 2.3–17.1, p < 0.01) as compared to their counter groups, respectively.

Conclusion:

Our study concluded that lower coronavirus disease 2019 seroprevalence, yet the large population in the community to be infected and insignificant proportion of seroprevalence, was observed between age and sex of respondents. Protective measures like contact tracing, face covering, and social distancing are therefore vital to demote the risk of community—strengthening factors should be continued as effect modification of anticipation for severe course of coronavirus disease 2019.

Impact of community masking on COVID-19: A cluster-randomized trial in Bangladesh

We conducted a cluster-randomized trial to measure the effect of community-level mask distribution and promotion on symptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in rural Bangladesh from November 2020 to April 2021 (N = 600 villages, N = 342,183 adults). We cross-randomized mask type (cloth versus surgical) and promotion strategies at the village and household level. Proper mask-wearing increased from 13.3% in the control group to 42.3% in the intervention arm (adjusted percentage point difference = 0.29; 95% confidence interval = [0.26, 0.31]). The intervention reduced symptomatic seroprevalence (adjusted prevalence ratio = 0.91 [0.82, 1.00]), especially among adults ≥60 years old in villages where surgical masks were distributed (adjusted prevalence ratio = 0.65 [0.45, 0.85]). Mask distribution with promotion was a scalable and effective method to reduce symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Trend in sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 serology one year after mild and asymptomatic COVID-19: unpacking potential bias in seroprevalence studies

A key aim of serosurveillance during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been to estimate the prevalence of prior infection, by correcting crude seroprevalence against estimated test performance for polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed COVID-19. We show that poor generalizability of sensitivity estimates to some target populations may lead to substantial underestimation of case numbers.

SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence in Lebanon: findings from the first nationwide serosurvey

BACKGROUND

Lebanon, a small country in the Middle East, remains severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Seroprevalence surveys of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies provide accurate estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and hence evaluate the extent of the pandemic. The present study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Lebanon and to compare the estimated cumulative number of COVID-19 cases with the officially registered number of laboratory-confirmed cases up to January 15, 2021.

METHODS

A nationwide population-based serosurvey study was conducted in Lebanon between December 7, 2020, and January 15, 2021, before the initiation of the national vaccination program. The nCOVID-19 IgG & IgM point-of-care (POCT) rapid test was used to detect the presence of anti-SARS-COV-2 immunoglobulin G (IgG) in the blood. Seroprevalence was estimated after weighting for sex, age, and area of residence and adjusting for the test performance.

RESULTS

Of the 2058 participants, 329 were positive for IgG SARS-COV-2, resulting in a crude seroprevalence of 16.0% (95% CI 14.4-17.6). The weighed seroprevalence was 15.9% (95% CI of 14.4 and 17.4). After adjusting for test performance, the population weight-adjusted seroprevalence was 18.5% (95% CI 16.8-20.2). This estimate implies that 895,770 individuals of the general population were previously infected by COVID-19 up to January 15, 2021 in Lebanon. The overall estimated number of subjects with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection was three times higher than the officially reported cumulative number of confirmed cases. Seroprevalence was similar across age groups and sexes (p-value > 0.05). However, significant differences were revealed across governorates.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the Lebanese population is still susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection and far from achieving herd immunity. These findings represent an important contribution to the surveillance of the COVID-19 pandemic in Lebanon and to the understanding of how this virus spreads. Continued surveillance for COVID-19 cases and maintaining effective preventive measures are recommended to control the epidemic spread in conjunction with a national vaccination campaign to achieve the desired level of herd immunity against COVID-19.

A Bioinformatics Tool for Predicting Future COVID-19 Waves Based on a Retrospective Analysis of the Second Wave in India: Model Development Study

Background

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, health policymakers globally have been attempting to predict an impending wave of COVID-19. India experienced a devastating second wave of COVID-19 in the late first week of May 2021. We retrospectively analyzed the viral genomic sequences and epidemiological data reflecting the emergence and spread of the second wave of COVID-19 in India to construct a prediction model.

Objective

We aimed to develop a bioinformatics tool that can predict an impending COVID-19 wave.

Methods

We analyzed the time series distribution of genomic sequence data for SARS-CoV-2 and correlated it with epidemiological data for new cases and deaths for the corresponding period of the second wave. In addition, we analyzed the phylodynamics of circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants in the Indian population during the study period.

Results

Our prediction analysis showed that the first signs of the arrival of the second wave could be seen by the end of January 2021, about 2 months before its peak in May 2021. By the end of March 2021, it was distinct. B.1.617 lineage variants powered the wave, most notably B.1.617.2 (Delta variant).

Conclusions

Based on the observations of this study, we propose that genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 variants, complemented with epidemiological data, can be a promising tool to predict impending COVID-19 waves.

COVID-19 Serological Survey-3 Prior to Second Wave in Mumbai, India

Background:

Subsequent to serosurveys 1 and 2 for COVID-19 carried out in three wards of Mumbai in July and August 2020, Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai conducted serosurvey 3 in March 2021. This was to identify the extent of exposure by testing specific IgG antibodies against COVID-19.

Material and Methods:

A cross-sectional study was conducted to find the prevalence of seropositivity in Mumbai, which included 10,197 samples belonging to patients visiting public dispensaries (slum population, 6006) and private (nonslum population, 4191) laboratories of Aapli Chikitsa network for blood investigations for non-COVID illnesses. The ward-wise number of unlinked anonymous samples from 24 wards was predecided by using probability proportionate sampling. The samples were collected using quota sampling technique as per predecided sample for each ward. These samples collected from nonimmunized individuals were tested for IgG antibodies at the Molecular Biology Laboratory of Kasturba Hospital for Infectious Diseases by chemiluminescence assay (CLIA) method.

Results:

The overall seropositivity was found to be 36.3% (41.6% in slum and 28.59% in nonslum population). It was more in city wards (38.28%) followed by western suburb (36.47%) and then eastern suburb wards (34.86%), matching with the proportion of cases in these wards during the study period. There was no significant difference in seropositivity among males and females and in different age groups.

Conclusions:

Seropositivity is higher in slum areas than nonslum areas. It has reduced in slum areas and increased in nonslum areas as compared to findings of serosurveys 1 and 2. This explains the detection of a greater number of cases from nonslum areas in the second wave. The average seropositivity of 36.3% justifies the necessity of immunization on a wider scale in the city. Periodic serosurveys are required at fixed intervals to monitor the trend of infection and level of herd immunity.

Looking back to move forward: A travel rule underlined by the current pandemic

Learning from the past - is easier said than done. In this narrative, "travel" refers to the forward movement of the society at large on the path of health and development. It is suggested that looking back and learning from the lived experiences of the past outbreaks could help generating public health insights and incorporating them in planning for a better future. In the process, a country may choose to revisit what took place in the recent past during the COVID-19 pandemic within its boundary and beyond. However, unfolding of events in the past, which is not as immediate as COVID neither too far as the flu pandemic of 1918, also has lessons to offer. Recognizably, a few alarms, that rang in the recent past and cried for mass attention towards beefed up public health preparedness, were missed. It is therefore necessary now to critically examine the past-efforts to eradicate, eliminate or control diseases such as small pox, polio, HIV, tuberculosis, leprosy, measles or malaria. Results of such evaluation could inform the future courses of actions around disease elimination science and health (DESH) and help develop better nations.

Asymptomatic SARS-COV-2 carriage and sero-positivity in high risk contacts of COVID-19 cases'

Purpose

Identifying asymptomatic SARS-COV-2 carriage is one of the crucial factors in controlling the COVID 19 pandemic. The relationship between the asymptomatic viral carriage and the rate of seroconversion needs better understanding. The present study was conducted to identify the asymptomatic COVID-19 infection and seropositivity in high-risk contacts in the southern district of Delhi, India.

Methods

Following the screening of 6961 subjects, a total of 407 asymptomatic high-risk subjects were selected. Demographic data, socioeconomic status, and history of COVID-19 related symptoms in the last 4 months were recorded. Blood samples and Nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs were collected for the detection of SARS-COV-2 RNA and anti-SARS-COV-2 antibodies.

Results

55 asymptomatic high-risk subjects (13.5%) tested positive for SARS-COV-2 infection and among them, 70.9% remained asymptomatic throughout their course of infection. The seropositivity among the subjects was 28.9% (n ​= ​118) and was found significantly higher among lower-middle socioeconomic strata (p ​= ​0.01). The antibody levels were significantly higher (p ​= ​0.033) in individuals with a previous history of COVID-19 like symptoms as compared to the subjects, who had no such history. Asymptomatic healthcare workers showed a significantly increased rate of SARS-COV-2 infection (p ​= ​0.004) and seropositivity (p ​= ​0.005) as compared to the non-healthcare workers. Subjects, who were exposed to infection at their workplace (non-hospital setting) had the least RT-PCR positivity rate (p ​= ​0.03).

Conclusions

A large proportion of SARS-COV-2 infection remains completely asymptomatic. The rate of asymptomatic carriage and seropositivity is significantly higher in healthcare workers as compared to the general population. The level of SARS-COV-2 antibodies is directly related to the appearance of symptoms. These observations may contribute to redefining COVID 19 screening, infection control, and professional health practice strategies.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and Risk Assessment Among Healthcare Workers at a Dedicated Tertiary Care COVID-19 Hospital in Delhi, India: A Cohort Study

Background

Healthcare workers (HCWs) have a substantially higher risk of Covid-19 infection but there is a paucity of information on the risk factors of disease transmission in high-burden real-world settings.

The study objective was to determine the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among healthcare workers in a high-burden Covid-19 setting and to estimate the incidence and identify the risk factors of infection.

Methods

This was a prospective observational cohort study amongst doctors and nurses working at a dedicated Covid-19 tertiary care government hospital in Delhi, India. A baseline blood sample (2-3ml) was collected from all the participants to test for the presence of total SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The HCWs that were seronegative (non-reactive) at baseline were followed-up for ≥21≤28 days with the collection of a second blood sample to assess for the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Results

A total of 321 (51.3%, 95% C.I 47.4, 55.3) HCWs were detected with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies on baseline examination. The seroprevalence, when adjusted for assay characteristics, was 54.5% (95% C.I 50.3, 58.6). On bivariate analysis, SARS-CoV-2 antibody positivity lacked statistically significant association with either age, sex, occupation, cumulative duty duration, and smoking status. The incidence of seroconversion in the baseline seronegative cohort on follow-up after 21-28 days was observed in 35 (14.9%) HCWs (n=245). Furthermore, the self-reported adherence to infection prevention and control measures did not show a statistically significant association with antibody positivity in the HCWs, neither at baseline nor on follow-up.

Conclusions 

The high risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in HCWs may be substantially reduced by adherence to Infection Prevention Control (IPC) and protective measures. 

Community seroprevalence and risk factors for SARS CoV-2 infection in different subpopulations in Vellore, India and its implications for future prevention

Objectives

The aim of this study was to inform public health policy decisions through the assessment of IgG antibody seroprevalence in the population and the risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Methods

The seroprevalence of IgG antibodies among different subpopulations at the end of the first and second waves of the pandemic was estimated. Various risk factors associated with seropositivity, including sociodemography, IgG antibodies against endemic human coronavirus, and vaccination status, were also assessed.

Results

For all 2433 consenting participants, the overall estimated seroprevalences at the end of first and second waves were 28.5% (95% CI 22.3–33.7%) and 71.5% (95% CI 62.8–80.5%), respectively. The accrual of IgG positivity was heterogeneous, with the highest seroprevalences found in urban slum populations (75.1%). Vaccine uptake varied among the subpopulations, with low rates (< 10%) among rural and urban slum residents. The majority of seropositive individuals (75%) were asymptomatic. Residence in urban slums (OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.57–2.6; p < 0.001), middle socioeconomic status (OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.17–2.67; p = 0.007), presence of diabetes (OR 1.721, 95% CI 1.148–2.581; p = 0.009), and hypertension (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.16–2.64; p = 0.008) were associated with seropositivity in multivariable analyses.

Conclusion

Although considerable population immunity has been reached, with more than two-thirds seropositive, improved vaccination strategies among unreached subpopulations and high-risk individuals are suggested for better preparedness in future.

COVID-19: A review of newly formed viral clades, pathophysiology, therapeutic strategies and current vaccination tasks

Today, the world population is facing an existential threat by an invisible enemy known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) or COVID-19. It is highly contagious and has infected a larger fraction of human population across the globe on various routes of transmission. The detailed knowledge of the SARS-CoV-2 structure and clinical aspects offers an important insight into the evolution of infection, disease progression and helps in executing the different therapies effectively. Herein, we have discussed in detail about the genome structure of SARS-CoV-2 and its role in the proteomic rational spread of different muted species and pathogenesis in infecting the host cells. The mechanisms behind the viral outbreak and its immune response, the availability of existing diagnostics techniques, the treatment efficacy of repurposed drugs and the emerging vaccine trials for the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak also have been highlighted. Furthermore, the possible antiviral effects of various herbal products and their extracted molecules in inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 replication and cellular entry are also reported. Finally, we conclude our opinion on current challenges involved in the drug development, bulk production of drug/vaccines and their storage requirements, logistical procedures and limitations related to dosage trials for larger population.

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in Individuals With Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Compared With Controls

OBJECTIVE

Data for the association between diabetes and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) susceptibility are conflicting. We aimed to evaluate this association using an analytical cross-sectional study design.

METHODS

Study participants were recruited from endocrine clinics of our hospital and belonged to 3 groups: group 1 (type 1 diabetes mellitus [T1DM]), group 2 (type 2 diabetes mellitus [T2DM]), and group 3 (controls). All participants submitted blood samples for SARS-CoV-2 S1/S2 immunoglobulin G antibody test (LIAISON; DiaSorin) and were interviewed for a history of documented infection.

RESULTS

We evaluated a total of 643 participants (T1DM, 149; T2DM, 160; control, 334; mean age, 37.9 ± 11.5 years). A total of 324 (50.4%) participants were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2. The seropositivity rate was significantly higher in the T1DM (55.7% vs 44.9%, P = .028) and T2DM (56.9% vs 44.9%, P = .013) groups than in the control group. The antibody levels in seropositive participants with T1DM and T2DM were not significantly different from those in seropositive controls. On multivariable analysis, low education status (odds ratio [OR], 1.41 [95% CI, 1.03-1.94]; P = .035), diabetes (OR, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.20-2.34]; P = .002), and overweight/obesity (OR, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.10-2.10]; P = .012) showed a significant association with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity. The association between diabetes and SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity was found to further increase in participants with coexisting overweight/obesity (adjusted OR, 2.63 [95% CI, 1.54-4.47]; P < .001).

CONCLUSION

SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity, assessed before the onset of the national vaccination program, was significantly higher in participants with T1DM and T2DM than in controls. The antibody response did not differ between seropositive participants with and without diabetes. These findings point toward an increased SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility for patients with diabetes, in general, without any differential effect of the diabetes type.

The Second Wave of COVID-19 in South and Southeast Asia and the Effects of Vaccination

Background: By February 2021, the overall impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South and Southeast Asia was relatively mild. Surprisingly, in early April 2021, the second wave significantly impacted the population and garnered widespread international attention. Methods: This study focused on the nine countries with the highest cumulative deaths from the disease as of August 17, 2021. We look at COVID-19 transmission dynamics in South and Southeast Asia using the reported death data, which fits a mathematical model with a time-varying transmission rate. Results: We estimated the transmission rate, infection fatality rate (IFR), infection attack rate (IAR), and the effects of vaccination in the nine countries in South and Southeast Asia. Our study suggested that the IAR is still low in most countries, and increased vaccination is required to prevent future waves. Conclusion: Implementing non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) could have helped South and Southeast Asia keep COVID-19 under control in 2020, as demonstrated in our estimated low-transmission rate. We believe that the emergence of the new Delta variant, social unrest, and migrant workers could have triggered the second wave of COVID-19.

COVID-19 testing, timeliness and positivity from ICMR's laboratory surveillance network in India: Profile of 176 million individuals tested and 188 million tests, March 2020 to January 2021

Background

The Indian Council of Medical Research set up a pan-national laboratory network to diagnose and monitor Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Based on these data, we describe the epidemiology of the pandemic at national and sub-national levels and the performance of the laboratory network.

Methods

We included surveillance data for individuals tested and the number of tests from March 2020 to January 2021. We calculated the incidence of COVID-19 by age, gender and state and tests per 100,000 population, the proportion of symptomatic individuals among those tested, the proportion of repeat tests and test positivity. We computed median (Interquartile range—IQR) days needed for selected surveillance activities to describe timeliness.

Results

The analysis included 176 million individuals and 188 million tests. The overall incidence of COVID-19 was 0.8%, and 12,584 persons per 100,000 population were tested. 6.1% of individuals tested returned a positive result. Ten of the 37 Indian States and Union Territories accounted for about 75.6% of the total cases. Daily testing scaled up from 40,000 initially to nearly one million in March 2021. The median duration between symptom onset and sample collection was two (IQR = 0,3) days, median duration between both sample collection and testing and between testing and data entry were less than or equal to one day. Missing or invalid entries ranged from 0.01% for age to 0.7% for test outcome.

Conclusion

The laboratory network set-up by ICMR was scaled up massively over a short period, which enabled testing a large section of the population. Although all states and territories were affected, most cases were concentrated in a few large states. Timeliness between the various surveillance activities was acceptable, indicating good responsiveness of the surveillance system.

Seroprevalence of IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 among the general population and healthcare workers in India, June-July 2021: A population-based cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

India began COVID-19 vaccination in January 2021, initially targeting healthcare and frontline workers. The vaccination strategy was expanded in a phased manner and currently covers all individuals aged 18 years and above. India experienced a severe second wave of COVID-19 during March-June 2021. We conducted a fourth nationwide serosurvey to estimate prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the general population aged ≥6 years and healthcare workers (HCWs).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We did a cross-sectional study between 14 June and 6 July 2021 in the same 70 districts across 20 states and 1 union territory where 3 previous rounds of serosurveys were conducted. From each district, 10 clusters (villages in rural areas and wards in urban areas) were selected by the probability proportional to population size method. From each district, a minimum of 400 individuals aged ≥6 years from the general population (40 individuals from each cluster) and 100 HCWs from the district public health facilities were included. The serum samples were tested for the presence of IgG antibodies against S1-RBD and nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV-2 using chemiluminescence immunoassay. We estimated the weighted and test-adjusted seroprevalence of IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, along with 95% CIs, based on the presence of antibodies to S1-RBD and/or nucleocapsid protein. Of the 28,975 individuals who participated in the survey, 2,892 (10%) were aged 6-9 years, 5,798 (20%) were aged 10-17 years, and 20,285 (70%) were aged ≥18 years; 15,160 (52.3%) participants were female, and 21,794 (75.2%) resided in rural areas. The weighted and test-adjusted prevalence of IgG antibodies against S1-RBD and/or nucleocapsid protein among the general population aged ≥6 years was 67.6% (95% CI 66.4% to 68.7%). Seroprevalence increased with age (p < 0.001) and was not different in rural and urban areas (p = 0.822). Compared to unvaccinated adults (62.3%, 95% CI 60.9% to 63.7%), seroprevalence was significantly higher among individuals who had received 1 vaccine dose (81.0%, 95% CI 79.6% to 82.3%, p < 0.001) and 2 vaccine doses (89.8%, 95% CI 88.4% to 91.1%, p < 0.001). The seroprevalence of IgG antibodies among 7,252 HCWs was 85.2% (95% CI 83.5% to 86.7%). Important limitations of the study include the survey design, which was aimed to estimate seroprevalence at the national level and not at a sub-national level, and the non-participation of 19% of eligible individuals in the survey.

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly two-thirds of individuals aged ≥6 years from the general population and 85% of HCWs had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 by June-July 2021 in India. As one-third of the population is still seronegative, it is necessary to accelerate the coverage of COVID-19 vaccination among adults and continue adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Second round statewide sentinel-based population survey for estimation of the burden of active infection and anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in the general population of Karnataka, India, during January-February 2021

Objective

Demonstrate the feasibility of using the existing sentinel surveillance infrastructure to conduct the second round of the serial cross-sectional sentinel-based population survey. Assess active infection, seroprevalence, and their evolution in the general population across Karnataka. Identify local variations for locally appropriate actions. Additionally, assess the clinical sensitivity of the testing kit used on account of variability of antibody levels in the population.

Methods

The cross-sectional study of 41,228 participants across 290 healthcare facilities in all 30 districts of Karnataka was done among three groups of participants (low, moderate, and high-risk). The geographical spread was sufficient to capture local variations. Consenting participants were subjected to real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing, and antibody (IgG) testing. Clinical sensitivity was assessed by conducting a longitudinal study among participants identified as COVID-19 positive in the first survey round.

Results

Overall weighted adjusted seroprevalence of IgG was 15.6% (95% CI: 14.9-16.3), crude IgG prevalence was 15.0% and crude active infection was 0.5%. Statewide infection fatality rate (IFR) was estimated as 0.11%, and COVID-19 burden estimated between 26.1 to 37.7% (at 90% confidence). Further, Cases-to-infections ratio (CIR) varied 3-35 across units and IFR varied 0.04-0.50% across units. Clinical sensitivity of the IgG ELISA test kit was estimated as ≥38.9%.

Conclusion

We demonstrated the feasibility and simplicity of sentinel-based population survey in measuring variations in subnational and local data, useful for locally appropriate actions in different locations. The sentinel-based population survey thus helped identify districts that needed better testing, reporting, and clinical management. The state was far from attaining natural immunity during the survey and hence must step up vaccination coverage and enforce public health measures to prevent the spread of COVD-19.

COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, and implications for vaccination

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 Delta pandemic wave in India surged and declined within 3 months; cases then remained low despite the continued spread of Delta elsewhere. Here we aim to estimate key epidemiological characteristics of the Delta variant based on data from India and examine the underpinnings of its dynamics.

METHODS

We utilize multiple datasets and model-inference methods to reconstruct COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India during March 2020 - June 2021. We further use model estimates to retrospectively predict cases and deaths during July - mid-Oct 2021, under various vaccination and vaccine effectiveness (VE) settings to estimate the impact of vaccination and VE for non-Delta-infection recoverees.

FINDINGS

We estimate that Delta escaped immunity in 34.6% (95% CI: 0 - 64.2%) of individuals with prior wildtype infection and was 57.0% (95% CI: 37.9 - 75.6%) more infectious than wildtype SARS-CoV-2. Models assuming higher VE among those with prior non-Delta infection, particularly after the 1 ^st dose, generated more accurate predictions than those assuming no such increases (best-performing VE setting: 90/95% vs. 30/67% baseline for the 1 ^st /2 ^nd dose). Counterfactual modeling indicates that high vaccination coverage for 1 ^st vaccine-dose in India (∼50% by mid-Oct 2021) combined with the boosting of VE among recoverees averted around 60% of infections during July - mid-Oct 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Non-pharmaceutical interventions, infection seasonality, and high coverage of 1-dose vaccination likely all contributed to pandemic dynamics in India during 2021. Given the shortage of COVID-19 vaccines globally and boosting of VE, for populations with high prior infection rates, prioritizing the first vaccine-dose may protect more people.

RESEARCH IN CONTEXT

Evidence before this study: We searched PubMed for studies published through Nov 3, 2021 on the Delta (B.1.617.2) SARS-CoV-2 variant that focused on three areas: 1) transmissibility [search terms: ("Delta variant" OR "B.1.617") AND ("transmission rate" OR "growth rate" OR "secondary attack rate" OR "transmissibility")]; 2) immune response ([search terms: ("Delta variant" OR "B.1.617") AND ("immune evas" OR "immune escape")]; and 3) vaccine effectiveness ([search terms: ("Delta variant" OR "B.1.617") AND ("vaccine effectiveness" OR "vaccine efficacy" OR "vaccination")]. Our search returned 256 papers, from which we read the abstracts and identified 54 relevant studies.Forty-two studies addressed immune evasion and/or vaccine effectiveness. Around half (n=19) of these studies measured the neutralizing ability of convalescent sera and/or vaccine sera against Delta and most reported some reduction (around 2-to 8-fold) compared to ancestral variants. The remainder (n=23) used field observations (often with a test-negative or cohort-design) and reported lower VE against infection but similar VE against hospitalization or death. Together, these laboratory and field observations consistently indicate that Delta can evade preexisting immunity. In addition, five studies reported higher B-cell and/or T-cell vaccine-induced immune response among recovered vaccinees than naïve vaccinees, suggesting potential boosting of pre-existing immunity; however, all studies were based on small samples (n = 10 to 198 individuals).Sixteen studies examined transmissibility, including 1) laboratory experiments (n=6) showing that Delta has higher affinity to the cell receptor, fuses membranes more efficiently, and/or replicates faster than other SARS-CoV-2 variants, providing biological mechanisms for its higher transmissibility; 2) field studies (n=5) showing higher rates of breakthrough infections by Delta and/or higher viral load among Delta infections than other variants; and 3) modeling/mixed studies (n=5) using genomic or case data to estimate the growth rate or reproduction number, reporting a 60-120% increase. Only one study jointly estimated the increase in transmissibility (1.3-1.7-fold, 50% CI) and immune evasion (10-50%, 50% CI); this study also reported a 27.5% (25/91) reinfection rate by Delta.Added value of this study: We utilize observed pandemic dynamics and the differential vaccination coverage for two vaccine doses in India, where the Delta variant was first identified, to estimate the epidemiological properties of Delta and examine the impact of prior non-Delta infection on immune boosting at the population level. We estimate that Delta variant can escape immunity from prior wildtype infection roughly one-third of the time and is around 60% more infectious than wildtype SARS-CoV-2. In addition, our analysis suggests the large increase in population receiving their first vaccine dose (∼50% by end of Oct 2021) combined with the boosting effect of vaccination for non-Delta infection recoverees likely mitigated epidemic intensity in India during July - Oct 2021.Implications of all the available evidence: Our analysis reconstructs the interplay and effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions, infection seasonality, Delta variant emergence, and vaccination on COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India. Modeling findings support prioritizing the first vaccine dose in populations with high prior infection rates, given vaccine shortages.

The burden of SARS-CoV-2 among healthcare workers across 16 hospitals of Kashmir, India-A seroepidemiological study

SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has greatly affected healthcare workers because of the high risk of getting infected. The present cross-sectional study measured SARS-CoV-2 antibody in healthcare workers of Kashmir, India.

METHODS

Serological testing to detect antibodies against nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV-2 was performed in 2003 healthcare workers who voluntarily participated in the study.

RESULTS

We report relatively high seropositivity of 26.8% (95% CI 24.8-28.8) for SARS-CoV-2in healthcare workers, nine months after the first case was detected in Kashmir. Most of the healthcare workers (71.7%) attributed infection to the workplace environment. Among healthcare workers who neither reported any prior symptom nor were they ever tested for infection by nasopharyngeal swab test, 25.5% were seropositive.

CONCLUSION

We advocate interval testing by nasopharyngeal swab test of all healthcare workers regardless of symptoms to limit the transmission of infection within healthcare settings.

Genomic characterization and epidemiology of an emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant in Delhi, India

Delhi, the national capital of India, experienced multiple severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreaks in 2020 and reached population seropositivity of >50% by 2021. During April 2021, the city became overwhelmed by COVID-19 cases and fatalities, as a new variant, B.1.617.2 (Delta), replaced B.1.1.7 (Alpha). A Bayesian model explains the growth advantage of Delta through a combination of increased transmissibility and reduced sensitivity to immune responses generated against earlier variants (median estimates: 1.5-fold greater transmissibility and 20% reduction in sensitivity). Seropositivity of an employee and family cohort increased from 42% to 87.5% between March and July 2021, with 27% reinfections, as judged by increased antibody concentration after a previous decline. The likely high transmissibility and partial evasion of immunity by the Delta variant contributed to an overwhelming surge in Delhi.

Genomic characterization and epidemiology of an emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant in Delhi, India

Delhi, the national capital of India, experienced multiple severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreaks in 2020 and reached population seropositivity of >50% by 2021. During April 2021, the city became overwhelmed by COVID-19 cases and fatalities, as a new variant, B.1.617.2 (Delta), replaced B.1.1.7 (Alpha). A Bayesian model explains the growth advantage of Delta through a combination of increased transmissibility and reduced sensitivity to immune responses generated against earlier variants (median estimates: 1.5-fold greater transmissibility and 20% reduction in sensitivity). Seropositivity of an employee and family cohort increased from 42% to 87.5% between March and July 2021, with 27% reinfections, as judged by increased antibody concentration after a previous decline. The likely high transmissibility and partial evasion of immunity by the Delta variant contributed to an overwhelming surge in Delhi.

Forecast of the COVID-19 trend in India: A simple modelling approach

By February 2021, the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in India had been relatively mild in terms of total reported cases and deaths. Surprisingly, the second wave in early April becomes devastating and attracts worldwide attention. Multiple factors (e.g., Delta variants with increased transmissibility) could have driven the rapid growth of the epidemic in India and led to a large number of deaths within a short period. We aim to reconstruct the transmission rate, estimate the infection fatality rate and forecast the epidemic size. We download the reported COVID-19 mortality data in India and formulate a simple mathematical model with a flexible transmission rate. We use iterated filtering to fit our model to deaths data. We forecast the infection attack rate in a month ahead. Our model simulation matched the reported deaths well and is reasonably close to the results of the serological study. We forecast that the infection attack rate (IAR) could have reached 43% by July 24, 2021, under the current trend. Our estimated infection fatality rate is about 0.07%. Under the current trend, the IAR will likely reach a level of 43% by July 24, 2021. Our estimated infection fatality rate appears unusually low, which could be due to a low case to infection ratio reported in previous study. Our approach is readily applicable in other countries and with other types of data (e.g., excess deaths).

Impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy at birth in India: a decomposition analysis

BACKGROUND

Quantifying excess deaths and their impact on life expectancy at birth (e0) provide a more comprehensive understanding of the burden of coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) on mortality. The study aims to comprehend the repercussions of the burden of COVID-19 disease on the life expectancy at birth and inequality in age at death in India.

METHODS

The mortality schedule of COVID-19 disease in the pandemic year 2020 was considered one of the causes of death in the category of other infectious diseases in addition to other 21 causes of death in the non-pandemic year 2019 in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data. The measures e0 and Gini coefficient at age zero (G0) and then sex differences in e0 and G0 over time were analysed by assessing the age-specific contributions based on the application of decomposition analyses in the entire period of 2010-2020.

RESULTS

The e0 for men and women decline from 69.5 and 72.0 years in 2019 to 67.5 and 69.8 years, respectively, in 2020. The e0 shows a drop of approximately 2.0 years in 2020 when compared to 2019. The sex differences in e0 and G0 are negatively skewed towards men. The trends in e0 and G0 value reveal that its value in 2020 is comparable to that in the early 2010s. The age group of 35-79 years showed a remarkable negative contribution to Δe0 and ΔG0. By causes of death, the COVID-19 disease has contributed - 1.5 and - 9.5%, respectively, whereas cardiovascular diseases contributed the largest value of was 44.6 and 45.9%, respectively, to sex differences in e0 and G0 in 2020. The outcomes reveal a significant impact of excess deaths caused by the COVID-19 disease on mortality patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic has negative repercussions on e0 and G0 in the pandemic year 2020. It has severely affected the distribution of age at death in India, resulting in widening the sex differences in e0 and G0. The COVID-19 disease demonstrates its potential to cancel the gains of six to eight years in e0 and five years in G0 and has slowed the mortality transition in India.

Social Factors Associated With Adherence to Preventive Behaviors Related to COVID-19 Among Rural and Semi-urban Communities in Western Maharashtra, India

Background: To control the transmission of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection, the Government of India (GoI) had taken stringent precautionary measures during the lockdown period. This study aimed to explore determinants affecting adherence to protective measures against COVID-19 infection among rural and semi-urban settings of Maharashtra, India.

Methods: A cross-sectional telephonic survey among 1,016 adults from randomly selected households was conducted between June 5 and July 16, 2020. The data were explored for knowledge, awareness, practices related to protective measures, and self-risk perception. Socio-demographic and attitudinal correlates of failure to use protective measures against COVID-19 were measured.

Results: In the survey, 72% of the participants were men. The mean age was 46 years (SD: 13.8). The main source of information was television (91%); however, information from healthcare providers (65%) and mass media announcements (49%) was trustworthy. Washing hands immediately with soap after returning from outdoors was reported by 95% of the respondents, always using a mask while outdoors by 94%, never attended social gatherings by 91%, always using hand sanitizer while outside by 77%, and 68% of the respondents followed all protective measures. The knowledge score [mean score 20.3 (SD: 2.4) out of 24] was independently associated with the risk of not using protective measures, with each unit increase in knowledge score, the risk of not using protective measures reduced by 16%. No source of income was independently associated with not using protective measures [AOR 1.5 95% CI (1.01–2.3)].

Conclusions: The COVID-19 public health interventions and behavior change communication strategies should be specifically directed towards the low socio-economic populations through trusted sources. The association between knowledge and practices demonstrates the importance of accurate public health communication to optimally follow preventive measures, such as structural interventions to address poverty and employment policies to address the unemployment crisis are required. Surveillance activity is needed to understand the actual behavior change among the population.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG antibodies in Kashmir, India, 7 months after the first reported local COVID-19 case: results of a population-based seroprevalence survey from October to November 2020

OBJECTIVES

We designed a population-based survey in Kashmir to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG antibodies in the general population aged 18 years and above.

SETTING

The survey was conducted among 110 villages and urban wards across 10 districts in Kashmir from 17 October 2020 to 4 November 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals aged 18 years and above were eligible to be included in the survey. Serum samples were tested for the presence of SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG antibodies using the Abbott SARS-CoV-2 IgG assay.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

We labelled assay results equal to or above the cut-off index value of 1.4 as positive for SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG antibodies. Seroprevalence estimates were adjusted for the sampling design and assay characteristics.

RESULTS

Out of 6397 eligible individuals enumerated, 6315 (98.7%) agreed to participate. The final analysis was done on 6230 participants. Seroprevalence adjusted for the sampling design and assay characteristics was 36.7% (95% CI 34.3% to 39.2%). Seroprevalence was higher among the older population. Among seropositive individuals, 10.2% (247/2415) reported a history of COVID-19-like symptoms. Out of 474 symptomatic individuals, 233 (49.2%) reported having been tested. We estimated an infection fatality rate of 0.034%.

CONCLUSIONS

During the first 7 months of the COVID-19 epidemic in Kashmir Valley, approximately 37% of individuals were infected. The reported number of COVID-19 cases was only a small fraction of the estimated number of infections. A more efficient surveillance system with strengthened reporting of COVID-19 cases and deaths is warranted.

Surgery for Cancer in the Wake of Second and Future Waves! Challenges and Opportunities in the Indian Context

The pandemic situation created by newly discovered severe acute respiratory disease corona virus 2019 has thrown up many challenges to surgical fraternity across world. All surgeons particularly cancer surgeons are facing dilemmas not only in managing patients but also in appropriate personal as well as employee’s health protection as well. Since the pandemic is not expected to recede unless it affects a considerable proportion of population or up to 60% of population is vaccinated, we need to be aware of prevailing best practices. This is important in ensuring continuity of care for cancer patients as well as to limit the consequences of one getting infected with the COVID-19. This review article focuses on the current challenges and the ways to mitigate them.