A framework for community interactions under climate change

Direct and indirect viral associations predict coexistence in wild plant virus communities

Viruses are a vastly underestimated component of biodiversity that occur as diverse communities across hierarchical scales from the landscape level to individual hosts. The integration of community ecology with disease biology is a powerful, novel approach that can yield unprecedented insights into the abiotic and biotic drivers of pathogen community assembly. Here, we sampled wild plant populations to characterize and analyze the diversity and co-occurrence structure of within-host virus communities and their predictors. Our results show that these virus communities are characterized by diverse, non-random coinfections. Using a novel graphical network modeling framework, we demonstrate how environmental heterogeneity influences the network of virus taxa and how the virus co-occurrence patterns can be attributed to non-random, direct statistical virus-virus associations. Moreover, we show that environmental heterogeneity changed virus association networks, especially through their indirect effects. Our results highlight a previously underestimated mechanism of how environmental variability can influence disease risks by changing associations between viruses that are conditional on their environment.

Indicators of the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems

Freshwater ecosystems, including lakes, streams, and wetlands, are responsive to climate change and other natural and anthropogenic stresses. These ecosystems are frequently hydrologically and ecologically connected with one another and their surrounding landscapes, thereby integrating changes throughout their watersheds. The responses of any given freshwater ecosystem to climate change depend on the magnitude of climate forcing, interactions with other anthropogenic and natural changes, and the characteristics of the ecosystem itself. Therefore, the magnitude and manner in which freshwater ecosystems respond to climate change is difficult to predict a priori. We present a conceptual model to elucidate how freshwater ecosystems are altered by climate change. We identify eleven indicators that describe the response of freshwater ecosystems to climate change, discuss their potential value and limitations, and describe supporting measurements. Indicators are organized in three inter-related categories: hydrologic, water quality, and ecosystem structure and function. The indicators are supported by data sets with a wide range of temporal and spatial coverage, and they inform important scientific and management needs. Together, these indicators improve the understanding and management of the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.

Not only climate: The importance of biotic interactions in shaping species distributions at macro scales

Abiotic factors are usually considered key drivers of species distribution at macro scales, while biotic interactions are mostly used at local scales. A few studies have explored the role of biotic interactions at macro scales, but all considered a limited number of species and obligate interactions. We examine the role of biotic interactions in large-scale SDMs by testing two main hypotheses: (1) biotic factors in SDMs can have an important role at continental scale; (2) the inclusion of biotic factors in large-scale SDMs is important also for generalist species. We used a maximum entropy algorithm to model the distribution of 177 bat species in Africa calibrating two SDMs for each species: one considering only abiotic variables (noBIO-SDMs) and the other (BIO-SDMs) including also biotic variables (trophic resource richness). We focused the interpretation of our results on variable importance and response curves. For each species, we also compared the potential distribution measuring the percentage of change between the two models in each pixel of the study area. All models gave AUC >0.7, with values on average higher in BIO-SDMs compared to noBIO-SDMs. Trophic resources showed an importance overall higher level than all abiotic predictors in most of the species (~68%), including generalist species. Response curves were highly interpretable in all models, confirming the ecological reliability of our models. Model comparison between the two models showed a change in potential distribution for more than 80% of the species, particularly in tropical forests and shrublands. Our results highlight the importance of considering biotic interactions in SDMs at macro scales. We demonstrated that a generic biotic proxy can be important for modeling species distribution when species-specific data are not available, but we envision that a multi-scale analysis combined with a better knowledge of the species might provide a better understanding of the role of biotic interactions.

Integrating animal physiology into the adaptive management of restored landscapes

Global-scale ecological changes and intensifying habitat destruction and have caused alarming declines in wildlife populations, resulting in a great need for concerted efforts towards their conservation. Despite this, animals are frequently overlooked in restoration and management initiatives and therefore populations often do not reassemble following disturbance without re-establishing habitat that meets their abiotic and biotic requirements. However, restoration ecologists broadly lack insight into the physiological mechanisms that can govern the responses of fauna to environmental change and management. Therefore, we conducted a literature search for studies reporting a mechanistic understanding of faunal habitat suitability and selection in restored landscapes to deliver an updated perspective on the integration of animal ecophysiology and restoration ecology. Of the 75,442 studies that we identified discussing ecological restoration in the last 50 years, only 8,627 (11.4%) did so in the context of fauna from which 912 studies (1.2%) examined habitat selection, 35 studies (0.05%) integrated physiology and only 15 studies (0.02%) explored thermal biology, despite temperature being one of the most pervasive drivers of physiological functioning. To combat this, we developed a conceptual framework that can guide restoration ecophysiology and promote innovative, multidisciplinary research through an established adaptive management structure. While physiological tools and approaches are currently underutilised in restoration practice, integrating them into ecological restoration, and environmental management more broadly, will offer exciting new opportunities to describe, explain and predict the responses of fauna to environmental change occurring, and that yet to come.

The timing of heat waves has multiyear effects on milkweed and its insect community

Extreme heat events are becoming more frequent and intense as climate variability increases, and these events inherently vary in their timing. We predicted that the timing of a heat wave would determine its consequences for insect communities owing to temporal variation in the susceptibility of host plants to heat stress. We subjected common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca) plants to in-field experimental heat waves to investigate how the timing of heat waves, both seasonally and relative to a biotic stressor (experimental herbivory), affected their ecological consequences. We found that heat waves had multiyear, timing-specific effects on plant-insect communities. Early-season heat waves led to greater and more persistent effects on plants and herbivore communities than late-season heat waves. Heat waves following experimental herbivory had reduced consequences. Our results show that extreme climate events can have complex, lasting ecological effects beyond the year of the event-and that timing is key to understanding those effects.

Effects of water temperature on freshwater macroinvertebrates: a systematic review

Water temperature is one of the main abiotic factors affecting the structure and functioning of aquatic ecosystems and its alteration can have important effects on biological communities. Macroinvertebrates are excellent bio-indicators and have been used for decades to assess the status of aquatic ecosystems as a result of environmental stresses; however, their responses to temperature are poorly documented and have not been systematically evaluated. The aims of this review are: (i) to collate and summarize responses of freshwater macroinvertebrates to different temperature conditions, comparing the results of experimental and theoretical studies; (ii) to understand how the focus of research on the effects of temperature on macroinvertebrates has changed during the last 51 years; and (iii) to identify research gaps regarding temperature responses, ecosystem types, organism groups, spatiotemporal scales, and geographical regions to suggest possible research directions. We performed a comparative assessment of 223 publications that specifically consider freshwater macroinvertebrates and address the effects of temperature. Short-term studies performed in the laboratory and focusing on insects exposed to a range of temperatures dominated. Field studies were carried out mainly in Europe, at catchment scale and almost exclusively in rivers; they mainly investigated responses to water thermal regime at the community scale. The most frequent biological responses tested were growth rate, fecundity and the time and length of emergence, whereas ecological responses mainly involved composition, richness, and distribution. Thermal research on freshwater macroinvertebrates has undergone a shift since the 2000s when studies involving extended spatiotemporal scales and investigating the effects of global warming first appeared. In addition, recent studies have considered the effects of temperature at genetic and evolutionary scales. Our review revealed that the effects of temperature on macroinvertebrates are manifold with implications at different levels, from genes to communities. However, community-level physiological, phenological and fitness responses tested on individuals or populations should be studied in more detail given their macroecological effects are likely to be enhanced by climate warming. In addition, most field studies at regional scales have used air temperature as a proxy for water temperature; obtaining accurate water temperature data in future studies will be important to allow proper consideration of the spatial thermal heterogeneity of water bodies and any effects on macroinvertebrate distribution patterns. Finally, we found an uneven number of studies across different ecosystems and geographic areas, with lentic bodies and regions outside the West underrepresented. It will also be crucial to include macroinvertebrates of high-altitude and tropical areas in future work because these groups are most vulnerable to climate warming for multiple reasons. Further studies on temperature-macroinvertebrate relationships are needed to fill the current gaps and facilitate appropriate conservation strategies for freshwater ecosystems in an anthropogenic-driven era.

Can metabolic traits explain animal community assembly and functioning?

All animals on Earth compete for free energy, which is acquired, assimilated, and ultimately allocated to growth and reproduction. Competition is strongest within communities of sympatric, ecologically similar animals of roughly equal size (i.e. horizontal communities), which are often the focus of traditional community ecology. The replacement of taxonomic identities with functional traits has improved our ability to decipher the ecological dynamics that govern the assembly and functioning of animal communities. Yet, the use of low-resolution and taxonomically idiosyncratic traits in animals may have hampered progress to date. An animal's metabolic rate (MR) determines the costs of basic organismal processes and activities, thus linking major aspects of the multifaceted constructs of ecological niches (where, when, and how energy is obtained) and ecological fitness (how much energy is accumulated and passed on to future generations). We review evidence from organismal physiology to large-scale analyses across the tree of life to propose that MR gives rise to a group of meaningful functional traits - resting metabolic rate (RMR), maximum metabolic rate (MMR), and aerobic scope (AS) - that may permit an improved quantification of the energetic basis of species coexistence and, ultimately, the assembly and functioning of animal communities. Specifically, metabolic traits integrate across a variety of typical trait proxies for energy acquisition and allocation in animals (e.g. body size, diet, mobility, life history, habitat use), to yield a smaller suite of continuous quantities that: (1) can be precisely measured for individuals in a standardized fashion; and (2) apply to all animals regardless of their body plan, habitat, or taxonomic affiliation. While integrating metabolic traits into animal community ecology is neither a panacea to disentangling the nuanced effects of biological differences on animal community structure and functioning, nor without challenges, a small number of studies across different taxa suggest that MR may serve as a useful proxy for the energetic basis of competition in animals. Thus, the application of MR traits for animal communities can lead to a more general understanding of community assembly and functioning, enhance our ability to trace eco-evolutionary dynamics from genotypes to phenotypes (and vice versa), and help predict the responses of animal communities to environmental change. While trait-based ecology has improved our knowledge of animal communities to date, a more explicit energetic lens via the integration of metabolic traits may further strengthen the existing framework.

Phenotypic evolution as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process: The effect of environmental variation and phenotypic plasticity

Here we investigate phenotypic evolution from the perspective of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process. Evolutionarily speaking, the model assumes the existence of stabilizing selection toward a phenotypic optimum. The standard (OU) model is modified to include environmental variation by taking a moving phenotypic optimum and endowing organisms with phenotypic plasticity. These two processes lead to an effective fitness landscape, which deforms the original. We observe that the simultaneous occurrence of environmental variation and phenotypic plasticity leads to skewed phenotypic distributions. The skewness of the resulting phenotypic distributions strongly depends on the rate of environmental variation and strength of selection. When generalized to more than one trait, the phenotypic distributions are not only affected by the magnitude of the rate of environmental variation but also by its direction. A remarkable feature of our predictions is the existence of an upper bound for the critical rate of environmental variation to allow population persistence, even if there is no cost associated with phenotypic plasticity.

Density, Temperature, and Comingled Species Affect Fitness within Carrion Communities: Coexistence in Phormia regina and Lucilia sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Blow fly (Diptera: Calliphoridae) interactions vary between competition and facilitation. Female blow flies engage in aggregated egg-laying, resulting in larval feeding masses differing in density and species composition. Numerous species are abundant within the same season, and some oviposit near or directly on eggs of other species, modifying their oviposition location choice depending on the presence or absence of other species. The ability to coexist on carrion, a temporary resource, was successfully attributed to resource, spatial, and temporal heterogeneity. Despite these broad categorizations, the specific mechanisms of coexistence within blow fly communities require further investigation. This study investigates variation in temperature and larval density as potential mechanisms of coexistence between two forensically important blow fly species: Lucilia sericata Meigen and Phormia regina Meigen (Diptera: Calliphoridae). Larval density, species ratio mix, and ambient temperature during development were manipulated in the presence of conspecifics and heterospecifics in the laboratory, and the fitness of each species was measured. In heterospecific treatments, the survival and body size of P. regina increased even at high ambient temperatures. In contrast, the survival of L. sericata remained unaffected by density or presence of heterospecifics, whereas body size increased in L. sericata-dominated heterospecific treatments depending on temperature and density. The negative effects of density were observed at high ambient temperatures, suggesting that density impacts are a function of ambient temperature. Overall, species coexistence was dependent on temperature, which mediated the outcome of species interactions.

Effects of diversity on thermal niche variation in bird communities under climate change

Climate change alters ecological communities by affecting individual species and interactions between species. However, the impacts of climate change may be buffered by community diversity: diverse communities may be more resistant to climate-driven perturbations than simple communities. Here, we assess how diversity influences long-term thermal niche variation in communities under climate change. We use 50-year continental-scale data on bird communities during breeding and non-breeding seasons to quantify the communities' thermal variability. Thermal variability is measured as the temporal change in the community's average thermal niche and it indicates community's response to climate change. Then, we study how the thermal variability varies as a function of taxonomic, functional, and evolutionary diversity using linear models. We find that communities with low thermal niche variation have higher functional diversity, with this pattern being measurable in the non-breeding but not in the breeding season. Given the expected increase in seasonal variation in the future climate, the differences in bird communities' thermal variability between breeding and non-breeding seasons may grow wider. Importantly, our results suggest that functionally diverse wildlife communities can mitigate effects of climate change by hindering changes in thermal niche variability, which underscores the importance of addressing the climate and biodiversity crises together.

Differences in fish herbivory among tropical and temperate seaweeds and annual patterns in kelp consumption influence the tropicalisation of temperate reefs

Climate change is leading to novel species interactions and profoundly altering ecosystems. In marine systems, tropical and subtropical species are increasing in higher latitudes. This has been linked to the deforestation of temperate coastlines, as direct effects of ocean warming combine with increased herbivory from tropical and sub-tropical fishes and lead to the decline of canopy-forming kelp. Here, we tested the hypothesis that this deforestation may be facilitated by greater palatability of temperate kelp and other canopy seaweeds compared to tropical taxa. We used multiple-choice filmed feeding field experiments and chemical analyses to measure the palatability of temperate and tropical seaweeds from Tosa Bay (southeastern Japan) and we used single-species feeding assays to measure changes in consumption of the kelp Ecklonia cava throughout the year. We found no evidence that temperate seaweeds are more palatable to herbivorous fish. In the multiple-choice assays, consumption was concentrated on both tropical and temperate Sargassum species, which are ephemeral and peak in abundance in the spring/early summer. Consumption of the kelp Ecklonia cava peaked during the autumn, when Sargassum species are absent. The highest levels of kelp herbivory coincide with the reproductive season for E. cava and may contribute to the long-term decline of these kelp forests in southern Japan.

Climate Change Amelioration by Marine Producers: Does Dominance Predict Impact?

AbstractClimate change threatens biodiversity worldwide, and assessing how those changes will impact communities will be critical for conservation. Dominant primary producers can alter local-scale environmental conditions, reducing temperature via shading and mitigating ocean acidification via photosynthesis, which could buffer communities from the impacts of climate change. We conducted two experiments on the coast of southeastern Alaska to assess the effects of a common seaweed species, Neorhodomela oregona, on temperature and pH in field tide pools and tide pool mesocosms. We found that N. oregona was numerically dominant in this system, covering >60% of habitable space in the pools and accounting for >40% of live cover. However, while N. oregona had a density-dependent effect on pH in isolated mesocosms, we did not find a consistent effect of N. oregona on either pH or water temperature in tide pools in the field. These results suggest that the amelioration of climate change impacts in immersed marine ecosystems by primary producers is not universal and likely depends on species' functional attributes, including photosynthetic rate and physical structure, in addition to abundance or dominance.

Coastal upwelling generates cryptic temperature refugia

Understanding the effects of climate-mediated environmental variation on the distribution of organisms is critically important in an era of global change. We used wavelet analysis to quantify the spatiotemporal (co)variation in daily water temperature for predicting the distribution of cryptic refugia across 16 intertidal sites that were characterized as 'no', 'weak' or 'strong' upwelling and spanned 2000 km of the European Atlantic Coast. Sites experiencing weak upwelling exhibited high synchrony in temperature but low levels of co-variability at monthly to weekly timescales, whereas the opposite was true for sites experiencing strong upwelling. This suggests upwelling generates temporal thermal refugia that can promote organismal performance by both supplying colder water that mitigates thermal stress during hot Summer months and ensuring high levels of fine-scale variation in temperature that reduce the duration of thermal extremes. Additionally, pairwise correlograms based on the Pearson-product moment correlation coefficient and wavelet coherence revealed scale dependent trends in temperature fluctuations across space, with a rapid decay in strong upwelling sites at monthly and weekly timescales. This suggests upwelling also generates spatial thermal refugia that can 'rescue' populations from unfavorable conditions at local and regional scales. Overall, this study highlights the importance of identifying cryptic spatiotemporal refugia that emerge from fine-scale environmental variation to map potential patterns of organismal performance in a rapidly changing world.

Metabolic rate allometry in intertidal mussels across environmental gradients: The role of coastal carbonate system parameters in mediating the effects of latitude and temperature

We assess the role of direct and indirect effects of coastal environmental drivers (including the parameters of the carbonate system) on energy expenditure (MR) and body mass (M) of the intertidal mussel, Perumytilus purpuratus, across 10 populations distributed over 2800 km along the Southern Eastern Pacific (SEP) coast. We find biogeographic and local variation in carbonate system variables mediates the effects of latitude and temperature on metabolic rate allometry along the SEP coast. Also, the fitted Piecewise Structural Equation models (PSEM) have greater predictive ability (conditional R² = 0.95) relative to the allometric scaling model (R² = 0.35). The largest standardized coefficients for MR and M were determined by the influence of temperature and latitude, followed by pCO₂, pH, total alkalinity, and salinity. Thus, physiological diversity of P. purpuratus along the SEP coast emerges as the result of direct and indirect effects of biogeographic and local environmental variables.

Alternative developmental and transcriptomic responses to host plant water limitation in a butterfly metapopulation

Predicting how climate change affects biotic interactions poses a challenge. Plant-insect herbivore interactions are particularly sensitive to climate change, as climate-induced changes in plant quality cascade into the performance of insect herbivores. Whereas the immediate survival of herbivore individuals depends on plastic responses to climate change-induced nutritional stress, long-term population persistence via evolutionary adaptation requires genetic variation for these responses. To assess the prospects for population persistence under climate change, it is therefore crucial to characterize response mechanisms to climate change-induced stressors, and quantify their variability in natural populations. Here, we test developmental and transcriptomic responses to water limitation-induced host plant quality change in a Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulation. We combine nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy on the plant metabolome, larval developmental assays and an RNA sequencing analysis of the larval transcriptome. We observed that responses to feeding on water-limited plants, in which amino acids and aromatic compounds are enriched, showed marked variation within the metapopulation, with individuals of some families performing better on control and others on water-limited plants. The transcriptomic responses were concordant with the developmental responses: families exhibiting opposite developmental responses also produced opposite transcriptomic responses (e.g. in growth-associated transcripts). The divergent responses in both larval development and transcriptome are associated with differences between families in amino acid catabolism and storage protein production. The results reveal intrapopulation variability in plasticity, suggesting that the Finnish M. cinxia metapopulation harbours potential for buffering against drought-induced changes in host plant quality.

Bird Communities in a Changing World: The Role of Interspecific Competition

Significant changes in the environment have the potential to affect bird species abundance and distribution, both directly, through a modification of the landscape, habitats, and climate, and indirectly, through a modification of biotic interactions such as competitive interactions. Predicting and mitigating the consequences of global change thus requires not only a sound understanding of the role played by biotic interactions in current ecosystems, but also the recognition and study of the complex and intricate effects that result from the perturbation of these ecosystems. In this review, we emphasize the role of interspecific competition in bird communities by focusing on three main predictions derived from theoretical and empirical considerations. We provide numerous examples of population decline and displacement that appeared to be, at least in part, driven by competition, and were amplified by environmental changes associated with human activities. Beyond a shift in relative species abundance, we show that interspecific competition may have a negative impact on species richness, ecosystem services, and endangered species. Despite these findings, we argue that, in general, the role played by interspecific competition in current communities remains poorly understood due to methodological issues and the complexity of natural communities. Predicting the consequences of global change in these communities is further complicated by uncertainty regarding future environmental conditions and the speed and efficacy of plastic and evolutionary responses to fast-changing environments. Possible directions of future research are highlighted.

Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China

Association is the basic unit of plant community classification. Exploring the distribution of plant associations can help improve our understanding of biodiversity conservation. Different associations depend on different habitats and studying the association level is important for ecological restoration, regional ecological protection, regulating the ecological balance, and maintaining biodiversity. However, previous studies have only focused on suitable distribution areas for species and not on the distribution of plant associations. Larix gmelinii is a sensitive and abundant species that occurs along the southern margin of the Eurasian boreal forests, and its distribution is closely related to permafrost. In this study, 420 original plots of L. gmelinii forests were investigated. We used a Maxent model and the ArcGIS software to project the potential geographical distribution of L. gmelinii associations in the future (by 2050 and 2070) according to the climate scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. We used the multi-classification logistic regression analysis method to obtain the response of the suitable area change for the L. gmelinii alliance and associations to climate change under different climate scenarios. Results revealed that temperature is the most crucial factor affecting the distribution of L. gmelinii forests and most of its associations under different climate scenarios. Suitable areas for each association type are shrinking by varying degrees, especially due to habitat loss at high altitudes in special terrains. Different L. gmelinii associations should have different management measures based on the site conditions, composition structure, growth, development, and renewal succession trends. Subsequent research should consider data on biological factors to obtain more accurate prediction results.

Resource limitation determines realized thermal performance of consumers in trophodynamic models

Recent work has demonstrated that changes in resource availability can alter a consumer's thermal performance curve (TPC). When resources decline, the optimal temperature and breadth of thermal performance also decline, leading to a greater risk of warming than predicted by static TPCs. We investigate the effect of temperature on coupled consumer-resource dynamics, focusing on the potential for changes in the consumer TPC to alter extinction risk. Coupling consumer and resource dynamics generally reduces the potential for resource decline to exacerbate the effects of warming via changes to the TPC due to a reduction in top-down control when consumers near the limits of their thermal performance curve. However, if resources are more sensitive to warming, consumer TPCs can be reshaped by declining resources, leading to increased extinction risk. Our work elucidates the role of top-down and bottom-up regulation in determining the extent to which changes in resource density alter consumer TPCs.

Biological sensitivities to high-resolution climate change projections in the California current marine ecosystem

The California Current Marine Ecosystem is a highly productive system that exhibits strong natural variability and vulnerability to anthropogenic climate trends. Relating projections of ocean change to biological sensitivities requires detailed synthesis of experimental results. Here, we combine measured biological sensitivities with high-resolution climate projections of key variables (temperature, oxygen, and pCO₂ ) to identify the direction, magnitude, and spatial distribution of organism-scale vulnerabilities to multiple axes of projected ocean change. Among 12 selected species of cultural and economic importance, we find that all are sensitive to projected changes in ocean conditions through responses that affect individual performance or population processes. Response indices were largest in the northern region and inner shelf. While performance traits generally increased with projected changes, fitness traits generally decreased, indicating that concurrent stresses can lead to fitness loss. For two species, combining sensitivities to temperature and oxygen changes through the Metabolic Index shows how aerobic habitat availability could be compressed under future conditions. Our results suggest substantial and specific ecological susceptibility in the next 80 years, including potential regional loss of canopy-forming kelp, changes in nearshore food webs caused by declining rates of survival among red urchins, Dungeness crab, and razor clams, and loss of aerobic habitat for anchovy and pink shrimp. We also highlight fillable gaps in knowledge, including specific physiological responses to stressors, variation in responses across life stages, and responses to multistressor combinations. These findings strengthen the case for filling information gaps with experiments focused on fitness-related responses and those that can be used to parameterize integrative physiological models, and suggest that the CCME is susceptible to substantial changes to ecosystem structure and function within this century.

The role of continental shelf bathymetry in shaping marine range shifts in the face of climate change

As a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, marine species on continental shelves around the world are rapidly shifting deeper and poleward. However, whether these shifts deeper and poleward will allow species to access more, less, or equivalent amounts of continental shelf area and associated critical habitats remains unclear. By examining the proportion of seabed area at a range of depths for each large marine ecosystem (LME), we found that shelf area declined monotonically for 19% of LMEs examined. However, the majority exhibited a greater proportion of shelf area in mid-depths or across several depth ranges. By comparing continental shelf area across 2° latitudinal bands, we found that all coastlines exhibit multiple instances of shelf area expansion and contraction, which have the potential to promote or restrict poleward movement of marine species. Along most coastlines, overall shelf habitat increases or exhibits no significant change moving towards the poles. The exception is the Southern West Pacific, which experiences an overall loss of area with increasing latitude. Changes in continental shelf area availability across latitudes and depths are likely to affect the number of species local ecosystems can support. These geometric analyses help identify regions of conservation priority and ecological communities most likely to face attrition or expansion due to variations in available area.

Hindcast-validated species distribution models reveal future vulnerabilities of mangroves and salt marsh species

Rapid climate change is threatening biodiversity via habitat loss, range shifts, increases in invasive species, novel species interactions, and other unforeseen changes. Coastal and estuarine species are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to sea level rise and may be severely impacted in the next several decades. Species distribution modeling can project the potential future distributions of species under scenarios of climate change using bioclimatic data and georeferenced occurrence data. However, models projecting suitable habitat into the future are impossible to ground truth. One solution is to develop species distribution models for the present and project them to periods in the recent past where distributions are known to test model performance before making projections into the future. Here, we develop models using abiotic environmental variables to quantify the current suitable habitat available to eight Neotropical coastal species: four mangrove species and four salt marsh species. Using a novel model validation approach that leverages newly available monthly climatic data from 1960 to 2018, we project these niche models into two time periods in the recent past (i.e., within the past half century) when either mangrove or salt marsh dominance was documented via other data sources. Models were hindcast-validated and then used to project the suitable habitat of all species at four time periods in the future under a model of climate change. For all future time periods, the projected suitable habitat of mangrove species decreased, and suitable habitat declined more severely in salt marsh species.

Comparing management strategies for conserving communities of climate-threatened species with a stochastic metacommunity model

Many species are shifting their ranges to keep pace with climate change, but habitat fragmentation and limited dispersal could impede these range shifts. In the case of climate-vulnerable foundation species such as tropical reef corals and temperate forest trees, such limitations might put entire communities at risk of extinction. Restoring connectivity through corridors, stepping-stones or enhanced quality of existing patches could prevent the extinction of several species, but dispersal-limited species might not benefit if other species block their dispersal. Alternatively, managers might relocate vulnerable species between habitats through assisted migration, but this is generally a species-by-species approach. To evaluate the relative efficacy of these strategies, we simulated the climate-tracking of species in randomized competitive metacommunities with alternative management interventions. We found that corridors and assisted migration were the most effective strategies at reducing extinction. Assisted migration was especially effective at reducing the extinction likelihood for short-dispersing species, but it often required moving several species repeatedly. Assisted migration was more effective at reducing extinction in environments with higher stochasticity, and corridors were more effective at reducing extinction in environments with lower stochasticity. We discuss the application of these approaches to an array of systems ranging from tropical corals to temperate forests.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years’.

Latitudinal gradient in species diversity provides high niche opportunities for a range-expanding phytophagous insect

When species undergo poleward range expansions in response to anthropogenic change, they likely encounter less diverse communities in new locations. If low diversity communities provide weak biotic interactions, such as reduced competition or predation, range-expanding species may experience high niche opportunities. Here, we investigated if oak gall wasp communities follow a latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) and if lower diversity communities provide weaker interactions at the poles for a range-expanding community member, Neuroterus saltatorius. We performed systematic surveys of gall wasps on a dominant oak, Quercus garryana, throughout most of its range, from northern California to Vancouver Island, British Columbia. On 540 trees at 18 sites, we identified 23 oak gall wasp morphotypes in three guilds (leaf detachable, leaf integral, and stem galls). We performed regressions between oak gall wasp diversity, latitude, and other abiotic (e.g. temperature) and habitat (e.g. oak patch size) factors to reveal if gall wasp communities followed an LDG. To uncover patterns in local interactions, we first performed partial correlations of gall wasp morphotype occurrences on trees within regions). We then performed regressions between abundances of co-occurring gall wasps on trees to reveal if interactions are putatively competitive or antagonistic. Q. garryana-gall wasp communities followed an LDG, with lower diversity at higher latitudes, particularly with a loss of detachable leaf gall morphotypes. Detachable leaf gall wasps, including the range-expanding species, co-occurred most on trees, with weak co-occurrences on trees in the northern expanded region. Abundances of N. saltatorius and detachable and integral leaf galls co-occurring on trees were negatively related, suggesting antagonistic interactions. Overall, we found that LDGs create communities with weaker associations at the poles that might facilitate ecological release in a range-expanding community member. Given the ubiquity of LDGs in nature, poleward range-expanding species are likely moving into low diversity communities. Yet, understanding if latitudinal diversity pattern provides weak biotic interactions for range-expanding species is not well explored. Our large-scale study documenting diversity in a related community of phytophagous insects that co-occur on a host plant reveals that LDGs create high niche opportunities for a range-expanding community member. Biogeographical patterns in diversity and species interactions are likely important mechanisms contributing to altered biotic interactions under range-expansions.

Multiple parasitoid species enhance top-down control, but parasitoid performance is context-dependent

Ecological communities are composed of many species, forming complex networks of interactions. Current environmental changes are altering the structure and species composition of ecological networks, which could modify interactions, either directly or indirectly. To predict changes in the functioning of communities, we need to understand whether species interactions are primarily driven by network structure (i.e., topology) or the specific identities of species (i.e., nodes). Yet, this partitioning of effects is challenging and thus rarely explored. Here we disentangled the influence of network structure and the identities of species on the outcome of consumer-resource interactions using a host-parasitoid system. We used four common community modules in host-parasitoid communities to represent network structure (i.e., host-parasitoid, exploitative competition, alternative host, and a combination of exploitative competition and alternative host). We assembled nine different species combinations per community module in a laboratory experiment using a pool of three Drosophila hosts and three larval parasitoid species (Leptopilina sp., Ganaspis sp., and Asobara sp.). We compared host suppression and parasitoid performance across community modules and species assemblages to identify general effects linked to network structure and specific effects due to species community composition. We found that multiple parasitoid species enhanced host suppression due to sampling effect, weaker interspecific than intraspecific competition between parasitoids, and synergism. However, the effects of network structure on parasitoid performance were species-specific and dependent on the identity of co-occurring species. Consequently, multiple parasitoid species generally strengthen top down-control, but the performance of the parasitoids depends on the identity of either the co-occurring parasitoid species, the alternative host species, or both. Our results highlight the importance of preserving parasitoid diversity for ecosystem functioning and show that other effects depend on species community composition, and may therefore be altered by ongoing environmental changes.

Linking animal behavior to ecosystem change in disturbed environments

Environmental disturbances often cause individuals to change their behavior. The behavioral responses can induce a chain of reactions through the network of species interactions, via consumptive and trait mediated connections. Given that species interactions define ecosystem structure and functioning, changes to these interactions often have ecological repercussions. Here, we explore the transmission of behavioral responses through the network of species interactions, and how the responses influence ecological conditions. We describe the underlying mechanisms and the ultimate impact that the behavioral responses can have on ecosystem structure and functioning, including biodiversity and ecosystems stability and services. We explain why behavioral responses of some species have a larger impact than that of others on ecosystems, and why research should focus on these species and their interactions. With the work, we synthesize existing theory and empirical evidence to provide a conceptual framework that links behavior responses to altered species interactions, community dynamics, and ecosystem processes. Considering that species interactions link biodiversity to ecosystem functioning, a deeper understanding of behavioral responses and their causes and consequences can improve our knowledge of the mechanisms and pathways through which human activities alter ecosystems. This knowledge can improve our ability to predict the effects of ongoing disturbances on communities and ecosystems and decide on the interventions needed to mitigate negative effects.

Interspecific Asymmetries in Behavioral Plasticity Drive Seasonal Patterns of Temporal Niche Partitioning in an Island Carnivore Community

Animals vary considerably in the amount of behavioral plasticity they exhibit in daily activity timing and temporal niche switching. It is not well understood how environmental factors drive changes in temporal activity or how interspecific differences in the plasticity of activity timing ultimately manifest in free-living animals. Here, we investigated the temporal structure and organization of activity patterns of two insular mammalian carnivores living in sympatry, the island fox (Urocyon littoralis) and island spotted skunk (Spilogale gracilis amphiala). Using collar-mounted accelerometers, we assessed the plasticity of behavioral activity rhythms in foxes and skunks by investigating how environmental factors drive the distribution of locomotor activity across the day and year, and subsequently examined the dynamics of temporal niche overlap between the two species. We documented that foxes express phenotypic plasticity in daily activity timing across the year, ranging from nocturnal to diurnal to crepuscular rhythms depending on individual and time of year. Most notably, foxes increased the proportion of daytime activity as seasonal temperatures decreased. Overall, activity patterns of foxes were consistent with the circadian thermoenergetics hypothesis, which posits that animals that switch their patterns of activity do so to coincide with the most energetically favorable time of day. In contrast to foxes, skunks exhibited little behavioral plasticity, appearing strictly nocturnal across the year. While the duration of skunk activity bouts increased with the duration of night, timing of activity onset and offset extended into daytime hours during summer when the duration of darkness was shortest. Analysis of temporal niche overlap between foxes and skunks suggested that niche overlap was highest during summer and lowest during winter and was dictated primarily by temporal niche switching in foxes, rather than skunks. Collectively, our results highlight how interspecific asymmetries in behavioral plasticity drive dynamic patterns of temporal niche overlap within an island carnivore community.

Direction of plant-soil feedback determines plant responses to drought

Droughts exarcerbate Plant-soil feedbacks (PSFs) making positive PSFs more positive and negative PSFs more negative. Alterations in PSFs that droughts induce could relate to the rooting depth of the tested plants. We present some rare evidence on how a driver of global change will alter a biotic interaction.

Global change re-structures alpine plant communities through interacting abiotic and biotic effects

Global change is altering patterns of community assembly, with net outcomes dependent on species' responses to the abiotic environment, both directly and mediated through biotic interactions. Here, we assess alpine plant community responses in a 15-year factorial nitrogen addition, warming and snow manipulation experiment. We used a dynamic competition model to estimate the density-dependent and -independent processes underlying changes in species-group abundances over time. Density-dependent shifts in competitive interactions drove long-term changes in abundance of species-groups under global change while counteracting environmental drivers limited the growth response of the dominant species through density-independent mechanisms. Furthermore, competitive interactions shifted with the environment, primarily with nitrogen and drove non-linear abundance responses across environmental gradients. Our results highlight that global change can either reshuffle species hierarchies or further favour already-dominant species; predicting which outcome will occur requires incorporating both density-dependent and -independent mechanisms and how they interact across multiple global change factors.

Consistent heat tolerance under starvation across seasonal morphs in Mycalesis mineus (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae)

Heat tolerance is a key trait for understanding insect responses to extreme heat events, but tolerance may be modulated by changes in food availability and seasonal variability in temperature. Differences in sensitivity and resistance across life stages are also important determinants of species responses. Using a full-factorial experimental design, we here investigated the effects of larval starvation, adult starvation, and seasonal morph (developmental temperature) on heat tolerance of a seasonally polyphenic butterfly, Mycalesis mineus, in both larval and adult stages. While starvation and rearing temperature profoundly influenced various life history traits in the insect, none of the treatments affected adult heat tolerance. There was also no evidence of reduced heat tolerance in larvae under starvation stress, though larval thermal tolerance was higher by ~1 °C at the higher developmental temperature. The lack of a starvation effect was unexpected given the general physiological cost of heat tolerance mechanisms. This might be attributed to the ability to tolerate heat being preserved under resource-based trade-offs due to its critical role in ensuring insect survival. Invariant heat tolerance in M. mineus shows that some insects may have thermal capacity to cope with extreme heat under short-term starvation and seasonality disruptions, though more prolonged changes may have greater consequences. The capacity to maintain key physiological function under multiple stressors will be crucial for species resilience in future novel environments.

Extinction, coextinction and colonization dynamics in plant-hummingbird networks under climate change

Climate-driven range shifts may cause local extinctions, while the accompanying loss of biotic interactions may trigger secondary coextinctions. At the same time, climate change may facilitate colonizations from regional source pools, balancing out local species loss. At present, how these extinction-coextinction-colonization dynamics affect biological communities under climate change is poorly understood. Using 84 communities of interacting plants and hummingbirds, we simulated patterns in climate-driven extinctions, coextinctions and colonizations under future climate change scenarios. Our simulations showed clear geographic discrepancies in the communities' vulnerability to climate change. Andean communities were the least affected by future climate change, as they experienced few climate-driven extinctions and coextinctions while having the highest colonization potential. In North America and lowland South America, communities had many climate-driven extinctions and few colonization events. Meanwhile, the pattern of coextinction was highly dependent on the configuration of networks formed by interacting hummingbirds and plants. Notably, North American communities experienced proportionally fewer coextinctions than other regions because climate-driven extinctions here primarily affected species with peripheral network roles. Moreover, coextinctions generally decreased in communities where species have few overlapping interactions, that is, communities with more complementary specialized and modular networks. Together, these results highlight that we should not expect colonizations to adequately balance out local extinctions in the most vulnerable ecoregions.

Multi-Stemmed Habit in Trees Contributes Climate Resilience in Tropical Dry Forest

Understanding how environmental adaptations mediate plant and ecosystem responses becomes increasingly important under accelerating global environmental change. Multi-stemmed trees, for example, differ in form and function from single-stemmed trees and may possess physiological advantages that allow for persistence during stressful climatic events such as extended drought. Following the worst drought in Hawaii in a century, we examined patterns of stem abundance and turnover in a Hawaiian lowland dry forest (LDF) and a montane wet forest (MWF) to investigate how multi-stemmed trees might influence site persistence, and how stem abundance and turnover relate to key functional traits. We found stem abundance and multi-stemmed trees to be an important component for climate resilience within the LDF. The LDF had higher relative abundance of multi-stemmed trees, stem abundance, and mean stem abundance compared to a reference MWF. Within the LDF, multi-stemmed trees had higher relative stem abundance (i.e., percent composition of stems to the total number of stems in the LDF) and higher estimated aboveground carbon than single-stemmed trees. Stem abundance varied among species and tree size classes. Stem turnover (i.e., change in stem abundance between five-year censuses) varied among species and tree size classes and species mean stem turnover was correlated with mean species stem abundance per tree. At the plot level, stem abundance per tree is also a predictor of survival, though mortality did not differ between multiple- and single-stemmed trees. Lastly, species with higher mean stem abundance per tree tended to have traits associated with a higher light-saturated photosynthetic rate, suggesting greater productivity in periods with higher water supply. Identifying the traits that allow species and forest communities to persist in dry environments or respond to disturbance is useful for forecasting ecological climate resilience or potential for restoration in tropical dry forests.

Climate influence on plant-pollinator interactions in the keystone species Vaccinium myrtillus

Climate change is altering the world's ecosystems through direct effects of climate warming and precipitation changes but also indirectly through changes in biotic interactions. For instance, climate‐driven changes in plant and/or insect communities may alter plant–pollinator interactions, thereby influencing plant reproductive success and ultimately population dynamics of insect‐pollinated plants. To better understand how the importance of insect pollination for plant fruit set varies with climate, we experimentally excluded pollinators from the partly selfing keystone species Vaccinium myrtillus along elevational gradients in the forest‐tundra ecotone in central Norway. The study comprised three mountain areas, seven elevational gradients spanning from the climatically relatively benign birch forest to the colder alpine areas above the tree line, and 180 plots of 1 × 1 m, with experimental treatments allocated randomly to plots within sites. Within the experimental plots, we counted the number of flowers of V. myrtillus and counted and weighed all fruits, as well as seeds for a selection of fruits. Excluding pollinators resulted in lower fruit production, as well as reduced fruit and seed mass of V. myrtillus. In the alpine sites pollinator exclusion resulted in 84% fewer fruits, 50% lower fruit weight, and 50% lower seed weight compared to control conditions. Contrary to our expectations, the negative effect of pollinator exclusion was less pronounced in the forest compared to alpine sites, suggesting that the importance of insect pollination for seed production is lower at low elevations. Our findings indicate that the keystone species V. myrtillus is relatively robust to changes in the pollinator community in a warmer climate, thereby making it less vulnerable to climate‐driven changes in plant–pollinator interactions.

An Integrative Perspective on the Mechanistic Basis of Context Dependent Species Interactions

It has long been known that the outcome of species interactions depends on the environmental context in which they occur. Climate change research has sparked a renewed interest in context dependent species interactions because rapidly changing abiotic environments will cause species interactions to occur in novel contexts and researchers must incorporate this in their predictions of species' responses to climate change. Here we argue that predicting how the environment will alter the outcome of species interactions requires an integrative biology approach that focuses on the traits, mechanisms, and processes that bridge disciplines such as physiology, biomechanics, ecology, and evolutionary biology. Specifically, we advocate for quantifying how species differ in their tolerance and performance to both environmental challenges independent of species interactions, and in interactions with other species as a function of the environment. Such an approach increases our understanding of the mechanisms underlying outcomes of species interactions across different environmental contexts. This understanding will in turn help determine how the outcome of species interactions affects the relative abundance and distribution of the interacting species in nature. A general theme that emerges from this perspective is that species are unable to maintain high levels of performance across different environmental contexts because of trade-offs between physiological tolerance to environmental challenges and performance in species interactions. Thus, an integrative biology paradigm that focuses on the trade-offs across environments, the physiological mechanisms involved, and how the ecological context impacts the outcome of species interactions provides a stronger framework to understand why species interactions are context dependent.

Effects of exposure to elevated temperature and different food levels on the escape response and metabolism of early life stages of white seabream, Diplodus sargus

Recent literature suggests that anthropogenic stressors can disrupt ecologically relevant behaviours in fish, such as the ability to escape from predators. Disruption of these behaviours at critical life history transitions, such as the transition from the pelagic environment to the juvenile/adult habitat, may have even greater repercussions. The literature suggests that an increase in temperature can affect fish escape response, as well as metabolism; however, few studies have focused on the acute sensitivity responses and the potential for acclimation through developmental plasticity. Here, we aimed at evaluating the acute and long-term effects of exposure to warming conditions on the escape response and routine metabolic rate (RMR) of early life stages of the white seabream, Diplodus sargus. Additionally, as food availability may modulate the response to warming, we further tested the effects of long-term exposure to high temperature and food shortage, as individual and interacting drivers, on escape response and RMR. Temperature treatments were adjusted to ambient temperature (19°C) and a high temperature (22°C). Feeding treatments were established as high ration and low ration (50% of high ration). Escape response and RMR were measured after the high temperature was reached (acute exposure) and after 4 weeks (prolonged exposure). Acute warming had a significant effect on escape response and generated an upward trend in RMR. In the long term, however, there seems to be an acclimation of the escape response and RMR. Food shortage, interacting with high temperature, led to an increase in latency response and a significant reduction in RMR. The current study provides relevant experimental data on fishes' behavioural and physiological responses to the combined effects of multiple stressors. This knowledge can be incorporated in recruitment models, thereby contributing to fine-tuning of models required for fisheries management and species conservation.

Emergent effects of global change on consumption depend on consumers and their resources in marine systems

Understanding the effects of global change on species interactions is important for predicting emergent ecosystem changes. Although environmental change can have direct effects on consumers, it is unclear if consumption will change in any generalizable way when both the consumer and resource(s) are exposed to future conditions. Using meta-analysis, we show high variability in consumption rates in response to ocean acidification and warming, indicating conclusions that suggest consumption will generally increase or decrease in a future ocean are premature. We also demonstrate how the interpretation is dependent on whether only the consumer or both the consumer and its resource(s) are exposed to future conditions. Based on these findings, we provide a road map for future research in this area.

A better understanding of how environmental change will affect species interactions would significantly aid efforts to scale up predictions of near-future responses to global change from individuals to ecosystems. To address this need, we used meta-analysis to quantify the individual and combined effects of ocean acidification (OA) and warming on consumption rates of predators and herbivores in marine ecosystems. Although the primary studies demonstrated that these environmental variables can have direct effects on consumers, our analyses highlight high variability in consumption rates in response to OA and warming. This variability likely reflects differences in local adaptation among species, as well as important methodological differences. For example, our results suggest that exposure of consumers to OA reduces consumption rates on average, yet consumption rates actually increase when both consumers and their resource(s) are concurrently exposed to the same conditions. We hypothesize that this disparity is due to increased vulnerability of prey or resource(s) in conditions of OA that offset declines in consumption. This hypothesis is supported by an analysis demonstrating clear declines in prey survival in studies that exposed only prey to future OA conditions. Our results illustrate how simultaneous OA and warming produce complex outcomes when species interact. Researchers should further explore other potential sources of variation in response, as well as the prey-driven component of any changes in consumption and the potential for interactive effects of OA and warming.

Climate Change in Africa and Vegetation Response: A Bibliometric and Spatially Based Information Assessment

The impact of climate change over the coming decades will increase the likelihood of many species undergoing genetic alterations or even becoming extinct. Vegetation and belowground organisms are more vulnerable to the intensified impact of climate change due to a possible lack of genetic plasticity and limited mobility. Organisms are inter-dependable in ecosystems; hence, this study focused on the impact of climate change, examining the soil condition in Africa, vegetation responses and the overview of species’ responses to climate change through a bibliometric study and an analysis of remote sensing information. The bibliometric study examines climate change-related literature published from 1999 to 2019, collected from the Web of Science and Scopus database platforms, and this reveals an overall rapid increase in the number of climate change publications in Africa, with South Africa occupying a leading position in all the studied parameters. The spatially based information on soil moisture, temperature and the photosynthetic activities of vegetation affirmed that there is increasing amount of drought in Africa with more impact in northern, southern and eastern Africa. African countries, especially in the above-mentioned regions, need to urgently invest in support programs that will ease the impact of climate change, particularly on food security.

Changes in temperature alter competitive interactions and overall structure of fig wasp communities

Organisms exist within ecological networks, connected through interactions such as parasitism, predation and mutualism which can modify their abundance and distribution within habitat patches. Differential species responses make it hard to predict the influence of climate change at the community scale. Understanding the interplay between climate and biotic interactions can improve our predictions of how ecosystems will respond to current global warming. We aim to understand how climate affects the multi-trophic biotic interactions as well as the community structure using the enclosed communities of wasps associated with figs as study system. To examine the presence and strength of multi-trophic species interactions, we first characterized the multi-trophic community of fig wasps associated with Ficus racemosa and then applied hierarchical joint species distribution models, fitted to community monitoring data. We further evaluated the effect of climate on individual species trends as well as inter-specific interactions. We found that the competitive balance shifted to favour non-pollinating galling wasps and disadvantage the dominant pollinator in sub-optimal conditions. Further, sub-optimal conditions for galling wasps facilitated the occurrence of their specialized parasitoid, as changes cascaded across trophic levels and led to alternative community structures. Our results highlight the role of how species interactions can be modified across multiple trophic levels in a fig wasp community according to climate.

Body size and food-web interactions mediate species range shifts under warming

Species ranges are shifting in response to climate change, but most predictions disregard food-web interactions and, in particular, if and how such interactions change through time. Predator-prey interactions could speed up species range shifts through enemy release or create lags through biotic resistance. Here, we developed a spatially explicit model of interacting species, each with a thermal niche and embedded in a size-structured food-web across a temperature gradient that was then exposed to warming. We also created counterfactual single species models to contrast and highlight the effect of trophic interactions on range shifts. We found that dynamic trophic interactions hampered species range shifts across 450 simulated food-webs with up to 200 species each over 200 years of warming. All species experiencing dynamic trophic interactions shifted more slowly than single-species models would predict. In addition, the trailing edges of larger bodied species ranges shifted especially slowly because of ecological subsidies from small shifting prey. Trophic interactions also reduced the numbers of locally novel species, novel interactions and productive species, thus maintaining historical community compositions for longer. Current forecasts ignoring dynamic food-web interactions and allometry may overestimate species' tendency to track climate change.

Introduction to the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments'

Understanding where, when and how species' ranges will be modified is both a fundamental problem and essential to predicting how spatio-temporal environmental changes in abiotic and biotic factors impact biodiversity. Notably, different species may respond disparately to similar environmental changes: some species may overcome an environmental change only with difficulty or not at all, while other species may readily overcome the same change. Ranges may contract, expand or move. The drivers and consequences of this variability in species' responses remain puzzling. Importantly, changes in a species' range creates feedbacks to the environmental conditions, populations and communities in its previous and current range, rendering population genetic, population dynamic and community processes inextricably linked. Understanding these links is critical in guiding biodiversity management and conservation efforts. This theme issue presents current thinking about the factors and mechanisms that limit and/or modify species' ranges. It also outlines different approaches to detect changes in species' distributions, and illustrates cases of range modifications in several taxa. Overall, this theme issue highlights the urgency of understanding species' ranges but shows that we are only just beginning to disentangle the processes involved. One way forward is to unite ecology with evolutionary biology and empirical with modelling approaches. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.