The global, regional, and national burden of cirrhosis by cause in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Liver Cirrhosis: ancient disease, new challenge

Liver cirrhosis is a common cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Excessive alcohol consumption and metabolic associated steatotic liver disease are the most common etiological factors of cirrhosis in our region. Cirrhosis occurs in two well-differentiated phases, compensated and decompensated, depending on the absence or presence of complications, respectively. Current therapeutic strategies are aimed at controlling these complications (such as ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, bacterial infections, or digestive hemorrhage, among others) or performing a liver transplant if there are no contraindications. However, it is important to eliminate the etiological factor responsible for the disease, as this can lead to the disappearance of complications, a state known as recompensation. This article proposes an updated review of the epidemiology of cirrhosis and its main causes, and offers an overview of the clinical features and treatment of the disease's complications, in addition to outlining future lines of research in this field.

The Value of TyG-Related Indices in Evaluating MASLD and Significant Liver Fibrosis in MASLD

Background: Triglyceride glucose (TyG) and its related index (TyG-body mass index, TyG-BMI) are recognized as markers for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), but their associations with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and significant liver fibrosis (SLF) risk are less studied. Therefore, this study explores the effectiveness of these indices in assessing MASLD and SLF risk in the U.S. population. Methods: Utilizing data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a cross-sectional study involving 5520 participants from the general population was performed. This research measured demographic, anthropometric, biochemical, comorbid, and lifestyle characteristics, all of which are considered risk factors for MASLD/SLF. Results: Upon controlling for confounding variables, only the TyG-BMI was found to have a consistent positive association with the risk of MASLD and SLF. Specifically, for each standard deviation increase, the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were 4.44 (3.64-9.26, p for trend < 0.001) for MASLD and 2.48 (2.15-2.87, p for trend < 0.001) for SLF. Significant interactions were identified among age, sex, and the risk of MASLD associated with the TyG-BMI. The TyG-BMI also had a significant threshold effect on the risk of MASLD at a cutoff point of 180.71. Furthermore, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) revealed that the TyG-BMI better predicted the risk of MASLD and SLF (AUC 0.820, 95% CI 0.810-0.831; AUC 0.729, 95% CI 0.703-0.756, respectively). In addition, the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), decision curve analysis (DCA), and net reclassification index (NRI) also demonstrated the satisfactory predictive ability of the TyG-BMI. Conclusions: Within this large dataset, the TyG-BMI was independently associated with both the MASLD score and the SLF in the MASLD cohort. Its predictive efficacy consistently surpassed that of TyG and other noninvasive models, indicating that TyG-BMI has potential for the early identification of MASLD and SLF risk.

Simvastatin and Rifaximin in Decompensated Cirrhosis: A Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

There are no useful treatments to prevent the development of severe complications of liver cirrhosis. Simvastatin and rifaximin have shown beneficial effects in liver cirrhosis.

Objective

To assess whether simvastatin combined with rifaximin improves outcomes in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial conducted among patients with decompensated cirrhosis in 14 European hospitals between January 2019 and December 2022. The last date of follow-up was December 2022.

Interventions

Patients were randomly assigned to receive simvastatin, 20 mg/d, plus rifaximin, 1200 mg/d (n = 117), or identical-appearing placebo (n = 120) for 12 months in addition to standard therapy, stratified according to Child-Pugh class B or C.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary end point was incidence of severe complications of liver cirrhosis associated with organ failure meeting criteria for acute-on-chronic liver failure. Secondary outcomes included transplant or death and a composite end point of complications of cirrhosis (ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, acute kidney injury, and infection).

Results

Among the 237 participants randomized (Child-Pugh class B: n = 194; Child-Pugh class C: n = 43), 72% were male and the mean age was 57 years. There were no differences between the 2 groups in terms of development of acute-on-chronic liver failure (21 [17.9%] vs 17 [14.2%] patients in the treatment and placebo groups, respectively; hazard ratio, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.65-2.34; P = .52); transplant or death (22 [18.8%] vs 29 [24.2%] patients in the treatment and placebo groups, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.43-1.32; P = .32); or development of complications of cirrhosis (50 [42.7%] vs 55 [45.8%] patients in the treatment and placebo groups, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.63-1.36; P = .70). Incidence of adverse events was similar in both groups (426 vs 419; P = .59), but 3 patients in the treatment group (2.6%) developed rhabdomyolysis.

Conclusions and Relevance

The addition of simvastatin plus rifaximin to standard therapy does not improve outcomes in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03780673.

[Fibrotic diseases in the gastrointestinal tract : Liver fibrosis and more]

Chronic liver damage, such as metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), viral hepatitis B or C, cholestatic hepatitis (PBC, PSC), toxic damage (alcohol) or genetic alterations (hemochromatosis, Wilson's disease, etc.) usually cause a chronic inflammatory response in liver cells or bile duct epithelial cells. In the long term this chronic inflammatory response can lead to scarring of the liver, a condition known as fibrosis. The development of liver fibrosis is largely independent of the causative agent, although the pattern of initial fibrosis (periportal, pericentral or sinusoidal) can vary. Untreated and progressive fibrosis can sometimes lead to complete architectural deconstruction and deposition of connective tissue in the liver, intestines and other parenchymal organs, with a gradual loss of function. In the end stage of liver cirrhosis, portal hypertension, encephalopathy, bleeding or carcinomas, e.g., hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocellular carcinoma (iCCCa), can occur. Intestinal fibrosis is one of the most devastating complications of Crohn's disease. With novel and consistent therapeutic interventions, fibrotic processes can be stopped and reversed. New research technologies have substantially improved our knowledge of liver fibrogenesis and intestinal fibrosis. The focus of this review article is on MASLD and Crohn's disease, chronic inflammatory diseases of the liver and intestines with increasing prevalence and a major impact on the general population. The current principles and potential possibilities of preventive and therapeutic antifibrotic interventions are illustrated.

Microwave ablation versus radiofrequency ablation for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with decompensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The efficacy of microwave ablation (MWA) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with decompensated cirrhosis remains unclear.

METHODS

A total of 315 patients with decompensated cirrhosis and HCC who underwent MWA or RFA were recruited. Recurrence beyond the Milan criteria (RBM), local tumor progression (LTP), overall survival (OS), and complications were evaluated and compared.

RESULTS

After propensity score matching, the overall liver-related complication rates were 12.1 % in the current study. The cumulative RBM rates were lower in patients treated with MWA compared to those treated with RFA (21.9 % vs. 23.4 % at 1 year; 42.3 % vs. 66.8 % at 5 years; p = 0.016). In addition, lower cumulative rates of LTP were found in patients treated with MWA compared to those treated with RFA (6.2 % vs. 19.9 % at 1 year; 14.7 % vs. 27.8 % at 3 years; p = 0.032). The OS rates at 1 and 5 years were 89.9 % and 58.9 % in the MWA group, and 80.7 %, and 38.9 % in the RFA group, respectively (p = 0.105).

CONCLUSION

HCC patients with decompensated cirrhosis can undergo MWA or RFA with acceptable mortality, morbidity and liver-rated complications rates. MWA demonstrates superiority over RFA in tumor control.

Global Epidemiology of Cirrhosis in Women

Recent epidemiological evidence indicates a significant rise in cirrhosis burden over the past 2 decades in all parts of the world, with cirrhosis incidence rates and related deaths escalating quickly. Women face unique risk factors and susceptibility to chronic liver diseases compared with men, underscoring the need for a sex-specific approach in early identification, reversal of causative factors, and complication prevention. This review aims to explore epidemiological trends and sex-specific factors contributing to the global epidemiology of cirrhosis among female patients today. While cirrhosis prevalence remains higher in male patients globally, the incidence rate from 2010 to 2019 grew faster among female patients. The female-to-male incidence ratio of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease-related cirrhosis globally in 2019 was 1.3, indicating a shifting trend toward new diagnoses among women now surpassing that of men. Alcohol-associated cirrhosis epidemiology is also changing, with trends toward an equal incidence of alcohol-associated cirrhosis between both sexes, particularly in industrialized nations with increased alcohol accessibility. Cirrhosis from viral hepatitis remains the main etiology among female patients in endemic regions. Sex differences in epidemiology are likely multifactorial, influenced by varying risk factors, susceptibility, and behaviors between sexes. Further research is necessary to better understand these disparities and to tailor sex-specific interventions toward improved management and treatment strategies, ultimately enhancing outcomes for women with cirrhosis and providing better patient-centered care.

Association of Sugar-Sweetened, Artificially Sweetened, and Unsweetened Coffee Consumption with Chronic Liver Disease and Liver-Related Events: A Large Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Previous observational studies have not reached an agreement on the association between coffee consumption and risk of liver diseases. Also, none of these studies took sweetener added in coffee into consideration.

OBJECTIVES

We aim to explore the associations of consumption of sweetened and unsweetened coffee with chronic liver disease (CLD) and liver-related events (LREs), and evaluate the degree to which sweetener added counteracted the effect of coffee.

METHODS

We performed a longitudinal cohort study of 170,044 participants without liver diseases or cancer at baseline investigation (2006-2010) and followed until 2022. Consumption of coffee and sweetener was assessed by 24-h dietary recall questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards models and restricted cubic splines were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 12.4 y, we identified 4152 incident of CLD and 853 LREs. Compared with nonconsumers, unsweetened coffee consumers of various amount had lower risk of CLD (HR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.67, 0.83 for 1.5∼2.5 drinks/d) and LREs (HR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.46, 0.80 for 2.5∼3.5 drinks/d) in the multivariable Cox models. U-shaped associations of unsweetened coffee with CLD and LREs were observed. The results for sweetened coffee were less consistent and conclusive in both CLD and LREs. We detected positive associations between sweetener and CLD and LREs. Compared with unsweetened coffee consumers, consumers of different amount of sugar added to coffee had higher risk of CLD in the multivariable Cox model. For artificial sweetener, a significant higher risk of CLD (HR: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.25, 2.05)and LREs (HR: 1.82; 95% CI: 1.11, 2.98) was only found in those who added ≥2 teaspoons/drink. We detected significant interaction between artificial sweetener and coffee intake on the risk of CLD (HR for product term: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.60, 0.96; P = 0.018; relative excess risk due to interaction: -0.32; 95% CI: -0.58, -0.06).

CONCLUSIONS

Moderate consumption of unsweetened coffee was associated with lower risk of CLD and LREs. Adding sweetener into coffee could bring additional risk of liver diseases in coffee consumers.

Extracorporeal liver support and liver transplantation for acute-on-chronic liver failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is defined by acute decompensation, organ failure and a high risk of short-term mortality. This condition is characterized by an overwhelming systemic inflammatory response. Despite treating the precipitating event, intensive monitoring and organ support, clinical deterioration can occur with very poor outcomes. During the last decades, several extracorporeal liver support systems have been developed to try to reduce ongoing liver injury and provide an improved environment for the liver to regenerate or as a bridging therapy until liver transplantation. Several clinical trials have been performed to evaluate the clinical efficacy of extracorporeal liver support systems, but no clear impact on survival has been proven. DIALIVE is a novel extracorporeal liver support device that has been built to specifically address the pathophysiological derangements responsible for the development of ACLF by replacing dysfunctional albumin and removing pathogen and damage-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs and DAMPs). In phase II clinical trial, DIALIVE appears to be safe, and it seems to be associated with a faster time to the resolution of ACLF compared with standard medical treatment. Even in patients with severe ACLF, liver transplantation saves lives and there is clear evidence of transplant benefit. Careful selection of patients is required to attain good results from liver transplantation, but many questions remain unanswered. In this review, we describe the current perspectives on the use of extracorporeal liver support and liver transplantation for ACLF patients.

A pilot clinical trial of exercise program for elderly patients with cirrhosis and frailty: comprehensive exercise rehabilitation intervention

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Comprehensive exercise rehabilitation has the potential to increase muscle mass and performance by stimulating protein synthesis and accelerating muscle catabolism. We developed the comprehensive exercise rehabilitation intervention (CERI) for elderly patients with cirrhosis, and we aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of CERI.

METHODS

Eligible were elderly patients with cirrhosis and frailty. Patients were randomized 1 : 1 to 12 weeks of CERI. Physical function were assessed using the gait speed, grip strength, 5 Sit-down Tests, and Balance Test, respectively.

RESULTS

Finally, 58 and 58 completed the study in CERI and SOC arms, respectively. The age range is 60-73. After 12 weeks, gait speed improved from 0.89 to 1.06 in CERI participants (Δgait speed 0.17) and 0.87-0.91 (Δgait speed 0.04) in SOC arm ( P  = 0.001 for Δgait speed difference). Grip strength improved from 15.44 to 15.94 in CERI participants (Δgrip strength 0.50) and 15.52-15.16 (Δgrip strength -0.36) in SOC arm ( P  = 0.044 for Δgrip strength difference). 5 Sit-down Tests Score improved from 16.17 to 15.46 in CERI participants (Δ5 Sit-down Tests 0.71) and 16.78-16.61 (Δ5 Sit-down Tests 0.17) in SOC arm ( P  = 0.037 for Δ5 Sit-down Tests difference). Median Balance Test score improved from 26.11 to 28.82 in CERI participants (ΔBalance Test 2.71) and 25.94-26.13 (ΔBalance Test 0.19) in SOC arm ( P  < 0.001 for ΔBalance Test difference); 92% of CERI participants adhered to the study for 12 weeks. No adverse events were reported by CERI participants.

CONCLUSION

CERI was safely administered at pilot randomized clinical trial, while all participants showed minimal improvement in gait speed, grip strength, 5 Sit-down Tests, and Balance Test. But multicenter, larger sample clinical trials are needed to track the effects of CERI.

Association Between Dietary Alcohol Intake and Migraine or Severe Headache Miscellaneous Pain: The NHANES 1999-2004

BACKGROUND

The relationship between alcohol consumption and migraine or severe headache remains controversial in the existing literature. Given that alcohol is a widely consumed beverage, clarifying the relationship between alcohol and migraine or severe headaches can help manage the patient's condition.

AIM

This study aimed to investigate the potential relationship between alcohol consumption and migraine or severe headache.

METHODS

Employing National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database records spanning March 1999 to December 2004, our analysis encompassed threshold effects, smoothed curve fitting, and multivariate logistic regression to elucidate the relationship between alcohol consumption level and migraine or severe headaches. We utilized subgroup analyses and interaction tests to explore the stability of this relationship across different stratified populations.

RESULTS

A total of 13,083 subjects were enrolled. The odds of migraine or severe headache decreased with increasing dietary alcohol intake. This was more pronounced in the older and male subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a significant negative association between dietary alcohol intake and the odds of having migraine or severe headache.

The Global Burden of Cirrhosis and Other Chronic Liver Diseases in 2021

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases has changed in recent years due to shifts in the contributing aetiologies. We estimated the burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases, including etiological and regional differences, across 204 countries and territories from 2010 to 2021.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We analysed temporal trends in the burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases utilising data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. We estimated annual frequencies and age-standardised rates (ASRs) of incident cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by sex, country, World Health Organisation region and its contributing aetiologies. In 2021, there were an estimated 58 417 006 incident cases, 1 425 142 deaths and 46 417 777 DALYs related to cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases. From 2010 to 2021, there was a rise in age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) (APC: +0.35%) but age-standardised death rates (ASDRs) (APC: -1.74%) and age-standardised disability-adjusted life-years (ASDALYs) (APC: -1.85%) declined. Cirrhosis related to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) contributed to 48 310 981 incident cases in 2021 and was largely responsible for the overall increase in ASIRs from 2010 to 2021. Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases related to MASH were the only aetiology with a rise in ASIR (APC: +0.86%). Age-standardised deaths related to all aetiologies of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases declined during the study period. Age-standardised deaths and DALYs related to MASH increased in the Americas, unlike all other world regions where they declined or remained stable.

CONCLUSIONS

Age-adjusted deaths related to cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases are declining. However, the age-adjusted incidence of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases is increasing, driven by increases in the incidence of MASH.

Association between elevated fibrosis-4 index of liver fibrosis and risk of hemorrhagic stroke

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis is associated with an increased risk of hemorrhagic stroke. Liver fibrosis, typically a silent condition, is antecedent to cirrhosis. The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that elevated Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, indicating a high probability of liver fibrosis, is associated with an increased risk of hemorrhagic stroke.

METHODS

We performed a cohort analysis of the prospective United Kingdom Biobank cohort study. Participants 40-69 years old were enrolled between 2007 and 2010 and had available follow-up data until March 1, 2018. We excluded participants with prevalent hemorrhagic stroke or thrombocytopenia. High probability of liver fibrosis was defined as having a value >2.67 of the validated FIB-4 index. The primary outcome was hemorrhagic stroke (intracerebral or subarachnoid hemorrhage), defined based on hospitalization and death registry data. Secondary outcomes were intracerebral and subarachnoid hemorrhage, separately. We used Cox proportional hazards models to evaluate the association of FIB-4 index >2.67 with hemorrhagic stroke while adjusting for potential confounders including hypertension, alcohol use, and antithrombotic use.

RESULTS

Among 452,994 participants (mean age, 57 years; 54% women), approximately 2% had FIB-4 index >2.67, and 1241 developed hemorrhagic stroke. In adjusted models, FIB-4 index >2.67 was associated with an increased risk of hemorrhagic stroke (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.6-2.6). Results were similar for intracerebral hemorrhage (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.5-2.7) and subarachnoid hemorrhage (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.5-3.5) individually.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated FIB-4 index was associated with an increased risk of hemorrhagic stroke.

Risk of Coronary Artery Disease in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is increasingly observed in patients with liver cirrhosis. However, data on the incidence and prevalence of CAD in cirrhotic patients are heterogeneous, and the association remains uncertain. In this study, we aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to address these issues.

METHODS

PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases were searched. Incidence, prevalence, and factors associated with CAD were pooled using a random-effects model. Risk ratio (RR) and odds ratio (OR), with their 95% confidence interval (CI), were calculated to evaluate differences in CAD incidence and prevalence between patients with and without liver cirrhosis.

RESULTS

Fifty-one studies were included. The pooled incidences of CAD, acute coronary syndromes, and myocardial infarction (MI) were 2.28%, 2.02%, and 1.80%, respectively. Liver cirrhosis was not significantly associated with CAD incidence (RR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.46-1.28) or MI (RR = 0.87; 95% CI = 0.49-1.57). The pooled prevalence of CAD, acute coronary syndromes, and MI was 18.87%, 12.54%, and 6.12%, respectively. Liver cirrhosis was not significantly associated with CAD prevalence (OR = 1.29; 95% CI = 0.83-2.01) or MI (OR = 0.58; 95% CI = 0.28-1.22). Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, hepatitis C virus, advanced age, male sex, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking history, and family history of CAD were significantly associated with CAD in cirrhotic patients.

CONCLUSIONS

CAD is common in cirrhotic patients, but cirrhosis itself may not be associated with an increased CAD risk. In addition to traditional risk factors, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis and hepatitis C virus infection are also associated with CAD presence in cirrhotic patients.

Association between the degree of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and nocturnal hypertension

Nighttime blood pressure (BP) decreases have prognostic significance owing to circadian patterns. The prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has rapidly increased in recent years. We aimed to investigate circadian blood pressure changes in patients with NAFLD. The present study included 114 patients diagnosed with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and no previous hypertension diagnosis. Thirty patients comprised the control group (no hepatosteatosis and no hypertension). The patients were divided into 3 groups based on nocturnal BP dipping. Blood pressure patterns using night-day ratios were classified as dipper (ratio ≤ 0, 9), nondipper (0, 9 < ratio ≤ 1, 0), or nocturnal hypertension (ratio > 1, 0). There were no significant differences in sex, age, presence of diabetes, or biochemical test results between the groups. According to the blood pressure pattern, the nondipper rate in the hepatosteatosis group was significantly higher than that in the control group. Patients were compared in terms of the presence and severity of hepatosteatosis according to night blood pressure patterns. A significant difference was observed between the groups (P < .001 and P = .001, respectively). We found an association between hepatosteatosis severity and night blood pressure patterns. Patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease have a higher incidence of nocturnal hypertension. We observed impaired circadian blood pressure changes in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

The CC motif chemokine ligand 11 contributes to alcoholic liver disease

AIMS

Alcoholic liver disease (ALD) is characterized by aberrant lipid metabolism and chronic inflammation that eventually give rise to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. In the present study we investigated the contribution of CC motif chemokine ligand 11 (CCL11) to ALD pathogenesis.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

ALD was induced in mice by binge ethanol gavage or chronic ethanol feeding.

KEY FINDINGS

Bioinformatic analysis of sequencing data indicated that CCL11 expression was up-regulated in hepatocytes from mice subjected to ethanol feeding compared to those from the control mice. Exposure to ethanol led to CCL11 up-regulation in primary murine hepatocytes in vitro. Consistently, Oil Red O (ORO) staining detected elevated lipid accumulation whereas quantitative PCR (qPCR) detected augmented expression of pro-inflammatory mediators in primary murine hepatocytes treated with recombinant CCL11. On the contrary, CCL11 knockout mice (KO) developed a less severe form of ALD compared to wild type littermates when subjected to either binge or chronic ethanol feeding. Finally, CCL11 antagonism by administration with an inhibitor to CCL11 receptor CCR3 (CCR3i) attenuated ALD in mice.

SIGNIFICANCE

Our data support a role for CCL11 in ALD pathogenesis and provide proof-of-concept that targeting CCL11 can be considered as a therapeutic approach for ALD intervention.

Lactate-to-albumin ratio as a potential prognostic predictor in patients with cirrhosis and sepsis: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Patients with liver cirrhosis face high infection risks due to immune dysfunction and hospital-related factors, increasing mortality rates when sepsis occurs. While various biomarkers predict outcomes in cirrhosis, few are accessible and reliable. This study addresses the gap by evaluating the prognostic potential of the lactate-to-albumin ratio (LAR).

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed data from patients with cirrhosis and sepsis who were admitted to the intensive care unit at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center between 2008 and 2022. LAR was calculated from the ratio obtained from the first measurement taken within 24 h of admission. The optimal LAR threshold was determined using R statistical software. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to compare mortality risks between two patient groups, while multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association between LAR and mortality risk in patients with cirrhosis and concomitant sepsis. A restricted cubic spline (RCS) was used to explore potential dose-response relationships between LAR and mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were used to assess the predictive ability, sensitivity, and specificity of LAR for all-cause mortality in patients with cirrhosis and combined sepsis, and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated. Finally, subgroup analyses were performed to assess the relationship between LAR and prognosis across different populations.

RESULTS

A total of 1731 patients were included in the study. The optimal LAR threshold was identified as 1.0 using R statistical software. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that patients with higher LAR levels had a higher risk of 14-day, 28-day, and 90-day all-cause mortality (all log-rank P < 0.001). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models indicated independent associations between higher LAR levels and all-cause mortality at 14-day, 28-day, and 90-day before and after adjusting for confounders. RCS analysis revealed a nonlinear association between LAR and short- and long-term all-cause mortality in patients with cirrhosis and sepsis. ROC curve analysis showed that although the predictive value of LAR for the prognosis of patients with cirrhosis combined with sepsis was slightly inferior to that of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, it was significantly better than that of lactate, albumin, and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment. Subgroup analyses showed no significant interactions between LAR and any specific subgroup.

CONCLUSION

LAR has good predictive value for the prognosis of patients with cirrhosis and sepsis.

Machine learning-based plasma metabolomics for improved cirrhosis risk stratification

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis is a leading cause of mortality in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD). The rapid development of metabolomic technologies has enabled the capture of metabolic changes related to the progression of cirrhosis.

METHODS

This study used proton nuclear magnetic resonance (1 H-NMR) serum metabolomics data from the UK Biobank (UKB) and employed elastic net-regularized Cox proportional hazards models to explore the role of metabolomics in cirrhosis risk stratification in patients with CLD. Metabolomic data were integrated with aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4) to construct predictive models for cirrhosis risk. The model performance was assessed in both the derivation and validation cohorts.

RESULTS

A total of 2,738 eligible patients were included in the analysis. Several metabolites showed an independent association with cirrhosis events (68 out of 168 metabolites after adjustment for age and sex, and 21 out of 168 metabolites after full adjustment). The integration of metabolomics with FIB-4 improved the predictive performance compared to FIB-4 alone (Harrell's C: 0.717 vs. 0.696, ΔC = 0.021, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.014-0.028, Net Reclassification Improvement [NRI]: 0.504 [0.488-0.520]). Similarly, the combination of metabolomics with APRI also improved predictive performance compared to APRI alone (Harrell's C: 0.747 vs. 0.718, ΔC = 0.029, 95% CI 0.022-0.035, NRI: 0.378 [0.366-0.389]). Key metabolites, including branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs), lipids, and markers of oxidative stress, were identified as significant predictors. Pathway enrichment analysis revealed that disruptions in lipid and amino acid metabolism play a central role in the progression of cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

1 H-NMR serum metabolomics significantly improves the prediction of cirrhosis risk in patients with CLD. The APRI + Metabolomics model demonstrated strong discriminatory power, with key metabolites involved in fatty acid and amino acid metabolism, providing a promising tool for the early screening of cirrhosis risk.

Global Epidemiology and Geographic Variations of Pediatric-Onset Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Comprehensive Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

An increasing incidence of pediatric-onset inflammatory bowel disease (PIBD) has been reported in many countries. However, the global burden and distribution of this disease remain less understood. We aimed to examine the global epidemiology and trends of PIBD from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study, covering 204 countries, were analyzed. We assessed key measures like incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) using linear regression to calculate annual percentage changes and assess trends.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, the PIBD incidence rate increased and the DALY rate and mortality rate declined. The incidence rate was notably elevated in the high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, reaching 6.3 per 100 000 person-years, corresponding to 13 914 new cases in 2019. Incidence and prevalence of PIBD positively correlated with the SDI, while higher death and DALY burdens were observed in lower-SDI countries. In 2019, the top 5 countries with the highest PIBD incidence rates were Canada (19.9 per 100 000 population), Denmark (12.4 per 100 000 population), Hungary (8.5 per 100 000 population), Austria (8.1 per 100 000 population), and the United States (7.4 per 100 000 population). Several countries experienced significant increases in incidence rates from 1990 to 2019, led by Taiwan (annual percent change 4.2%), followed by China (2.8%), Japan (2.1%), Australia (1.8%), and Hungary (1.6%).

DISCUSSION

PIBD incidence has significantly increased since 1990. High-SDI countries face higher incidence, while lower-SDI countries experience higher mortality and DALY burdens. The study underscores the need for ongoing monitoring and research to address this emerging public health issue.

Liver diseases: epidemiology, causes, trends and predictions

As a highly complex organ with digestive, endocrine, and immune-regulatory functions, the liver is pivotal in maintaining physiological homeostasis through its roles in metabolism, detoxification, and immune response. Various factors including viruses, alcohol, metabolites, toxins, and other pathogenic agents can compromise liver function, leading to acute or chronic injury that may progress to end-stage liver diseases. While sharing common features, liver diseases exhibit distinct pathophysiological, clinical, and therapeutic profiles. Currently, liver diseases contribute to approximately 2 million deaths globally each year, imposing significant economic and social burdens worldwide. However, there is no cure for many kinds of liver diseases, partly due to a lack of thorough understanding of the development of these liver diseases. Therefore, this review provides a comprehensive examination of the epidemiology and characteristics of liver diseases, covering a spectrum from acute and chronic conditions to end-stage manifestations. We also highlight the multifaceted mechanisms underlying the initiation and progression of liver diseases, spanning molecular and cellular levels to organ networks. Additionally, this review offers updates on innovative diagnostic techniques, current treatments, and potential therapeutic targets presently under clinical evaluation. Recent advances in understanding the pathogenesis of liver diseases hold critical implications and translational value for the development of novel therapeutic strategies.

[Survey on knowledge of metabolic liver disease (EHMet) among Primary Care Physicians in Spain]

OBJECTIVE

Improving the management of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) in Primary Care requires a good knowledge of the disease. This study evaluated the knowledge of biomarkers and comorbidities associated with the disease among Primary Care Physicians (PCPs), the resources available for diagnosis, and the relationship with hepatologists.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Cross-sectional study based on an anonymous email survey sent to PCPs actively practicing at the time of distribution. Retired professionals were excluded. The survey comprised 29 questions grouped into 3sections: 1. Sociodemographic characteristics, 2. Relationship with the gastroenterology department, 3. Diagnosis and management of MAFLD.

RESULTS

A total of 362 responses were received (10.23% participation). Of the respondents, 64.2% were women, and the most participative age group was 50-59 (29.4%). Cantabria, Catalonia, Andalusia, Castilla-León and Madrid were the regions with the highest response rates. 81.5% of PCPs did not have protocols for diagnosis and management, and while two-thirds were familiar with the Fib-4 marker, only half used it. Having protocols increased the use of Fib-4 (OR 4.41; 95%CI 1.68-11.53). A total of 81.5% recognized the importance of extrahepatic comorbidities, and 92% actively screened for cardiovascular risk factors. Elastography was considered useful by 58.7%, but only 11% had access to it. 72% of PCPs had no relationship with specialists, although 60% had access to a Hepatology Unit.

CONCLUSIONS

It is necessary to improve knowledge of MAFLD, strengthen collaboration between care levels, and establish standardized management protocols.

Association Between Liver Fibrosis and Risk of Incident Stroke and Mortality: A Large Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

There is a well-established relationship between liver conditions and cardiovascular diseases. However, uncertainty persists regarding the contribution of liver fibrosis to major stroke types including ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, and subarachnoid hemorrhage at the population level.

METHODS

In this large prospective cohort study, participants without previous stroke or coronary heart disease at baseline from the UK Biobank were included. We identified participants at high probability of advanced liver fibrosis using the Fibrosis-4 index >2.67 or aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index ≥1.0. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were conducted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for liver fibrosis with the incidence of major stroke types, stroke-related death, and all-cause death.

RESULTS

Among 379 953 participants (mean age, 56.2 [SD, 8.1] years; 44.6% men), 7396 (1.9%) had a Fibrosis-4 index >2.67 at baseline. During a median follow-up of 12.75 (interquartile range, 12.03-13.48) years, 7143 (1.9%) incident stroke cases were documented. Advanced liver fibrosis assessed by the Fibrosis-4 index was associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke (HR, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.70-2.22]), intracerebral hemorrhage (HR, 2.14 [95% CI, 1.63-2.81]), subarachnoid hemorrhage (HR, 1.90 [95% CI, 1.27-2.84), stroke-related death (HR, 2.20 [95% CI, 1.73-2.80]), and all-cause death (HR, 2.59 [95% CI, 2.46-2.73]). Using the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index as an alternative score, liver fibrosis was correlated with magnified risk of intracerebral hemorrhage (HR, 3.76 [95% CI, 2.38-5.93]) and subarachnoid hemorrhage (HR, 3.05 [95% CI, 1.51-6.13]) compared with ischemic stroke (HR, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.17-2.14]). Restricted cubic spline analysis showed nonlinear associations of the Fibrosis-4 index and aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index with stroke incidence and all-cause death.

CONCLUSIONS

Liver fibrosis is associated with increased risk of incident stroke and death among people without previous stroke or cardiovascular events, with particularly greater risk of intracerebral hemorrhage and subarachnoid hemorrhage. Noninvasive indices of liver fibrosis may serve as an easily accessible marker to detect individuals facing elevated risk of stroke and death in the primary prevention settings.

Changes in Protein Metabolism and Early Development of Sarcopenia in Mice With Cholestatic Liver Disease

BACKGROUND

Sarcopenia is a frequent complication of liver cirrhosis. Here, we chose a mouse model of cholestatic liver disease (CLD) to gain mechanistic insights into the development of sarcopenia from the earliest stages of chronic liver injury. Particular attention was paid to protein metabolism, metabolite profiles, and mediators of CLD-induced muscle wasting.

METHODS

Male C57BL/6 J mice underwent bile duct ligation (BDL), sham surgery, or served as untreated controls. The observation phase lasted from the preoperative stage to postoperative day 14. Metabolic cage experiments were performed to determine the nitrogen balance (N-BAL), nitrogen metabolite profiles, and total energy expenditure (TEE) using doubly labelled water. The fractional protein synthesis rate (FPSR) was assessed using 2H5-ring-phenylalanine. Plasma concentrations of inflammatory markers, metabolites, and enzymes associated with liver damage were investigated. Muscle strength and volume were assessed using a grip strength meter and MRI, respectively. Gene expression was analysed by real-time PCR.

RESULTS

BDL caused CLD with necroses and inflammation, increased bilirubin (p < 0.0001) and conjugated bile acids (p < 0.05), and reduced food intake (p < 0.0001) and body weight (p < 0.0001; each vs. sham). Compared to controls, BDL mice showed lower N-BAL (p < 0.05), reduced TEE (p < 0.01), and lower FPSR in the liver (p < 0.05) and quadriceps muscle (p < 0.001). Arginine was the only plasma amino acid that was diminished after BDL compared to controls and sham treatment (p < 0.0001). Reduced muscle strength was observed as early as d3/d4 after BDL (p < 0.001; vs. sham), while muscle volume decreased from d6 to d13 (p < 0.05). In quadriceps muscle, a lower nuclei-to-fibre ratio (p < 0.001) and elevated 1-methyl-histidine (1-MH) (p < 0.001) were detected, whereas 3-MH was increased in the urine of BDL mice (p < 0.001; each vs. sham). The quadriceps muscle of BDL mice contained higher mRNA levels of atrophy-associated genes (Trim63: p < 0.0001, Fbxo32: p < 0.01) and Mstn (p < 0.05), but lower levels of genes involved in mitochondrial function (Cpt-1b: p < 0.05, Pgc-1α: p < 0.01; each vs. sham). In the plasma of BDL mice, elevated protein levels of TNF receptor-1 (p < 0.0001) and HGF-1 (p < 0.05) were observed, while myostatin was diminished (p < 0.05; each vs. sham).

CONCLUSIONS

Sarcopenia occurs early in CLD and is a multicausal process. Relevant pathophysiologies include reduced protein synthesis, degradation of muscle proteins, arginine deficiency, a systemic pro-inflammatory and catabolic state, and muscle toxicity of bile acids. Consequently, the treatment of sarcopenia should focus both on eliminating the cause of the cholestasis and on symptomatic measures such as anti-inflammatory treatment, lowering the bile acid level, and targeted compensation of deficiencies.

The gut-brain axis underlying hepatic encephalopathy in liver cirrhosis

Up to 50-70% of patients with liver cirrhosis develop hepatic encephalopathy (HE), which is closely related to gut microbiota dysbiosis, with an unclear mechanism. Here, by constructing gut-brain modules to assess bacterial neurotoxins from metagenomic datasets, we found that phenylalanine decarboxylase (PDC) genes, mainly from Ruminococcus gnavus, increased approximately tenfold in patients with cirrhosis and higher in patients with HE. Cirrhotic, not healthy, mice colonized with R. gnavus showed brain phenylethylamine (PEA) accumulation, along with memory impairment, symmetrical tremors and cortex-specific neuron loss, typically found in patients with HE. This accumulation of PEA was primarily driven by decreased monoamine oxidase-B activity in both the liver and serum due to cirrhosis. Targeting PDC or PEA reversed the neurological symptoms induced by R. gnavus. Furthermore, fecal microbiota transplantation from patients with HE to germ-free cirrhotic mice replicated these symptoms and further corroborated the efficacy of targeting PDC or PEA. Clinically, high baseline PEA levels were linked to a sevenfold increased risk of HE after intrahepatic portosystemic shunt procedures. Our findings expand the understanding of the gut-liver-brain axis and identify a promising therapeutic and predictive target for HE.

The Misdiagnosis and Underdiagnosis of Hepatic Encephalopathy

Patients with cirrhosis are at risk of developing hepatic encephalopathy (HE), which can present with a wide range of symptoms, including confusion, lethargy, inappropriate behavior, and altered sleep patterns. In addition to HE, patients with cirrhosis are at risk of developing mild cognitive impairment, dementia, and delirium, which have features closely resembling HE. Given the similar presentation of these conditions, misdiagnosis can and does occur. Mild cognitive impairment is common in individuals aged 50 years and older and can progress to dementia in those affected. Dementia and HE are both characterized by sleep disturbance and cognitive dysfunction, thus differentiating these conditions can be difficult. Furthermore, delirium can disrupt sleep patterns, and liver disease is recognized as a risk factor for its development. As HE is a cirrhosis-related complication, determining if a patient has undiagnosed cirrhosis is critical, particularly given the large number of patients with asymptomatic, compensated cirrhosis. Separately, underdiagnosis of minimal HE can occur even in patients with diagnosed liver disease, related, in part, to lack of testing. Given the availability of effective therapies for managing symptoms and preventing future episodes, accurate diagnosis of HE is essential.

Dietary inflammatory potential and metabolic (dysfunction)-associated steatotic liver disease and its complications: A comprehensive review

Metabolic (dysfunction)-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) represents a spectrum of liver pathologies linked to metabolic syndrome components. Inflammation emerges as a pivotal player in MASLD pathogenesis, initiating and perpetuating hepatic injury. Diet, a modifiable risk factor, influences inflammation levels and MASLD progression. This review synthesizes existing evidence on the association between pro-inflammatory diets, assessed via the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII) and Empirical Dietary Inflammatory Potential (EDIP), and MASLD. Evidence suggests a significant association between higher DII/EDIP scores and MASLD risk, with studies revealing a positive correlation between inflammatory diet intake and MASLD occurrence, particularly in males. However, inconsistencies exist regarding the influence of body mass index (BMI) on this association and criticisms regarding adjustment for BMI and reliance on surrogate markers necessitate cautious interpretation. Limited data suggest a potential link between dietary inflammatory potential and advanced liver fibrosis and heightened risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with increased DII/EDIP scores, albeit requiring further confirmation through gold-standard assessment methods. Dietary-induced inflammation exacerbates MASLD pathogenesis through multiple pathways, including insulin resistance, adipose tissue dysfunction, gut microbiota alterations, and oxidative stress, culminating in hepatic steatosis, inflammation, and fibrosis. Further research utilizing robust methodologies is imperative to confirm these findings and elucidate underlying mechanisms, thus informing targeted dietary interventions for MASLD management.

Prognostic Implications of Cardiac Geometry in Cirrhosis: Findings From a Large Cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Cirrhosis is characterised by hyperdynamic circulation, which contributes to cirrhotic cardiomyopathy (CCM). However, the expert consensus on CCM did not initially include cardiac structure because of scant evidence. Therefore, this study investigated the associations of cardiac chamber geometry with mortality and CCM.

METHODS

We retrospectively included 2514 cirrhotic patients from 2011 to 2023. In accordance with the guidelines for echocardiography, left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy (LVH) and LV, left atrial (LA), right ventricular (RV), and right atrial (RA) enlargement were evaluated. Cox and logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the relationships among cardiac chamber, all-cause mortality, and CCM.

RESULTS

The prevalence rates of LV hypertrophy and LV, LA, RV, and RA enlargement were 21.9%, 21.3%, 30.4%, 5.9%, and 10.9%, respectively. Concentric LVH (HR: 1.305, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.153-1.466), eccentric LVH (HR: 1.272, 95% CI: 1.139-1.426), LV enlargement (HR: 1.305, 95% CI: 1.153-1.466), and LA enlargement (HR: 1.254, 95% CI: 1.130-1.379) were significantly associated with mortality during the median follow-up of 2.1 years. In a subcohort of 1898 individuals, CCM, with a prevalence of 29.0%, was independently associated with concentric LVH (OR: 1.834, 95% CI: 1.214-2.707), eccentric LVH (OR: 3.063, 95% CI: 2.379-3.903), LV enlargement (OR: 2.519, 95% CI: 2.150-2.977), LA enlargement (OR: 3.559, 95% CI: 2.770-4.321), and RA enlargement (OR: 1.416, 95% CI: 1.025-1.915). LV abnormalities showed 90% specificity and 35% sensitivity for CCM diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Geometric pattern changes in the LV and LA are prevalent and independently associated with all-cause mortality and CCM. These indicators have potential for hazard stratification and CCM redefinition.

Health disparities in cirrhosis care and liver transplantation

Morbidity and mortality from cirrhosis are substantial and increasing. Health disparities in cirrhosis and liver transplantation are reflective of inequities along the entire spectrum of chronic liver disease care, from screening and diagnosis to prevention and treatment of liver-related complications. The key populations experiencing disparities in health status and healthcare delivery include racial and ethnic minority groups, sexual and gender minorities, people of lower socioeconomic status and underserved rural communities. These disparities lead to delayed diagnosis of chronic liver disease and complications of cirrhosis (for example, hepatocellular carcinoma), to differences in treatment of chronic liver disease and its complications, and ultimately to unequal access to transplantation for those with end-stage liver disease. Calling out these disparities is only the first step towards implementing solutions that can improve health equity and clinical outcomes for everyone. Multi-level interventions along the care continuum for chronic liver disease are needed to mitigate these disparities and provide equitable access to care.

Predictive value of renal shear wave elastography in liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

In liver cirrhosis, prognosis is profoundly affected by renal function. This study evaluates the usefulness of renal stiffness measurement by point-shear wave elastography and renal perfusion by duplex.

METHODS

In this case-control study, organ stiffness was quantified using point-shear wave elastography and duplex sonography to calculate the arterial resistive (RI) and pulsatility indices (PI) in 123 patients, including patients with liver cirrhosis with (LC+A) and without ascites (LC-A) and patients without liver cirrhosis (NLC).

RESULTS

PI and RI were significantly increased in LC-A and LC+A compared to NLC (p<0.001) and correlated with MELD and Child Pugh scores. Point-shear wave elastography showed significantly lower renal stiffness in LC+A compared to LC-A (p<0.01) and NLC (p<0.001). Renal stiffness correlated inversely with MELD and Child Pugh scores. Reduced renal stiffness, but not PI or RI, was associated with the presence of hepatorenal syndrome (p<0.001). Reduced renal stiffness was associated with an increased risk of death due to complications of liver cirrhosis within 3 years (p<0.01).

CONCLUSION

Point-shear wave elastography and duplex sonography correlate with progression of liver cirrhosis, but only shear wave elastography represents a valuable prognostic tool for hepatorenal syndrome and mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis.

Identification of multiple complications as independent risk factors associated with 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality in hepatitis B-associated cirrhosis patients

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B-associated cirrhosis (HBC) is associated with severe complications and adverse clinical outcomes. This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for the occurrence of multiple complications (three or more) in patients with HBC and to explore the effects of multiple complications on HBC prognosis.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, data from 121 HBC patients treated at Nanjing Second Hospital from February 2009 to November 2019 were analysed. The maximum follow-up period was 10.75 years, with a median of 5.75 years. Eight machine learning techniques were employed to construct predictive models, including C5.0, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), k-nearest neighbour (KNN), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), support vector machine (SVM), generalised linear model (GLM) and naive Bayes (NB), utilising variables such as medical history, demographics, clinical signs, and laboratory test results. Model performance was evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, residual analysis, calibration curve analysis, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The influence of multiple complications on HBC survival time was assessed via Kaplan‒Meier curve analysis. Furthermore, LASSO and univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) in patients with HBC, followed by ROC, C-index, calibration curve, and DCA curve analyses of the constructed prognostic nomogram model. This study utilized bootstrap resampling for internal validation and employed the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database for external validation.

RESULTS

The GBDT model exhibited the highest area under the curve (AUC) and emerged as the optimal model for predicting the occurrence of multiple complications. The key predictive factors included posthospitalisation fever (PHF), body mass index (BMI), retinol binding protein (RBP), total bilirubin (TB) levels, and eosinophils (EOS). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that patients with multiple complications had significantly worse OS than those with fewer complications. Additionally, multivariable Cox regression analysis, informed by least absolute shrinkage and LASSO selection, identified hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), multiple complications, and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels as independent prognostic factors for OS. The prognostic model demonstrated 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS ROC AUCs of 0.802, 0.793, and 0.817, respectively. For the internal validation cohort, the corresponding AUC values were 0.797, 0.832, and 0.835. In contrast, the external validation cohort yielded a 1-year ROC AUC of 0.707. Calibration curves indicated good consistency of the model, and DCA demonstrated the model's clinical utility, showing high net benefits within certain threshold ranges. Compared with the univariable models, the multivariable ROC curves indicated higher AUC values for this prognostic model, and the model also possessed the best c-index.

CONCLUSION

The GBDT prediction model provides a reliable tool for the early identification of high-risk HBC patients prone to developing multiple complications. The concurrent occurrence of multiple complications is an independent prognostic factor for OS in patients with HBC. The constructed prognostic model demonstrated remarkable predictive performance and clinical applicability, indicating its crucial role in enhancing patient outcomes through timely and targeted interventions.

Epidemiology of liver diseases: global disease burden and forecasted research trends

We assessed the global incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with various liver diseases, including alcohol-related liver disease (ALD), hepatitis B/C virus infections (HBV or HCV), liver cancer, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), and other chronic liver diseases, from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study. Additionally, we analyzed the global trends in hepatology research and drug development. From 2000 to 2019, prevalence rates increased for ALD, MASLD and other liver diseases, while they decreased for HBV, HCV, and liver cancer. Countries with a high socio-demographic index (SDI) exhibited the lowest mortality rates and DALYs. The burden of liver diseases varied due to factors like sex and region. In nine representative countries, MASLD, along with hepatobiliary cancer, showed highest increase in funding in hepatology research. Globally, the major research categories in hepatology papers from 2000 to 2019 were cancer, pathobiology, and MASLD. The United States (U.S.) was at the forefront of hepatology research, with China gradually increasing its influence over time. Hepatologists worldwide are increasingly focusing on studying the communication between the liver and other organs, while underestimating the research on ALD. Cancer, HCV, and MASLD were the primary diseases targeted for therapeutic development in clinical trials. However, the proportion of new drugs approved for the treatment of liver diseases was relatively low among all newly approved drugs in the U.S., China, Japan, and the European Union. Notably, there were no approved drug for the treatment of ALD in the world.

Efficacy and safety of anticoagulation in asymptomatic cirrhotic patients with portal vein thrombosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The role of anticoagulation in asymptomatic cirrhotic patients with portal vein thrombosis (PVT) remains unclear. This study aims to evaluate the efficacy and safety of anticoagulation in this patient population.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Embase up to August 2024. The primary outcomes analyzed were PVT recanalization, progression of PVT, bleeding events, and mortality. Odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for dichotomous variables.

RESULTS

Seventeen studies, including randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies, were included in the analysis. Compared to no intervention, anticoagulation significantly increased the PVT recanalization rate (OR = 3.89, p < .001) and decreased the PVT progression rate (OR = 0.28, p < .001) as well as overall mortality (OR = 0.66, p = .008). Importantly, anticoagulation did not significantly increase the bleeding rate (OR = 1.21, p = .41). Subgroup analysis revealed a greater benefit in PVT recanalization within the short-term treatment subgroup (≤ 6 months) compared to long-term treatment subgroup (> 6 months), and in the Asian subgroup compared to the European or United States of America (USA) subgroup. In the Warfarin subgroup, while the total bleeding rate increased significantly, there was no significant rise in major bleeding events. Additionally, a downward trend in variceal bleeding was observed in the Asian subgroup (OR = 0.44; 95% CI: 0.19-1.04; p = .06).

CONCLUSION

Anticoagulation is both safe and effective for asymptomatic cirrhotic patients with PVT. It not only treats PVT and reduces all-cause mortality, but also does so without significantly increasing the risk of bleeding events.

Hepatic encephalopathy and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis are associated with increased liver-related readmissions in cirrhosis

Introduction

Liver disease remains a significant global health concern. In China, the number of patients with liver cirrhosis is estimated to reach 7 million. In addition to the high risk of death, cirrhosis leads to several severe complications. Patients with cirrhosis have significantly longer hospital stays and higher total hospital costs than those without cirrhosis. We aimed to investigate the predictors of readmission among patients with cirrhosis in China.

Materials and methods

We conducted a retrospective study to evaluate adult patients with cirrhosis. Data on various sociodemographic, clinical, and hospitalization characteristics were collected. We defined the primary endpoint as the first liver-related readmission occurring within 30-90 days of initial hospitalization. Adult patients with cirrhosis admitted to our hospital between January 2009 and December 2022 were included. Differences between groups were analyzed using Student's t-test and chi-square test. Logistic and multiple linear regression analyses were performed to identify predictors associated with readmission and the length of the first hospitalization.

Results

In total, 1,285 patients were diagnosed with cirrhosis. Among these patients, 767 (59.7%) were males, and the mean age was 58.9 ± 12.3 years. Seventy-two (5.6%) and 154 (12.0%) patients were readmitted within 30 and 90 days, respectively. Compared with those who were not readmitted, patients readmitted at 30-day and 90-day had a higher proportion of males, ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, electrolyte abnormalities, higher Child-Pugh-Turcotte scores, longer initial hospital stays, and higher initial hospitalization costs. Logistic regression analysis indicated that hepatic encephalopathy, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, diabetes, and ascites were predictors of 30- and 90-day readmission. Hypertension and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis were significant predictors of the length of the first hospitalization.

Conclusion

Patients with cirrhosis presenting with hepatic encephalopathy, ascites, and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis may have a higher risk of rehospitalization.

Systematic Sex-Based Inequity in the MELD Score-Based Allocation System for Liver Transplantation in Germany

In liver allocation systems based on the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, sex inequities have been identified in countries with high organ donation rates. Whether similar inequities exist in regions with average to low donation rates remained unclear. We assessed the impact of sex on transplantation rates, waiting list mortality and post-transplant survival in 25,943 patients waitlisted for liver transplantation in Germany between 2003 and 2017 using competing risk analysis. Women are currently underrepresented on the waiting list (33.3%) and among transplant recipients (31.1%) compared to their proportion of severe liver disease cases (35.1%). The introduction of MELD-based allocation has worsened this disadvantage [HR before: 0.89 (0.81-0.98), after: 0.77 (0.74-0.81)]. Three key factors contribute to this disparity: Women have lower creatinine levels despite worse renal function, reducing their MELD score (median 1, 0-3). Second, exceptional MELD points are more frequently granted to men [HR 1.61 (1.54-1.69) compared to regular allocation]. Third, the small height of women has the highest impact on the probability of not being transplanted [adjusted HR 0.85 (0.81-0.9)]. Even in countries with lower organ donation rates, MELD-based allocation leads to sex inequity. Measures are needed to ensure sex-neutral liver allocation in MELD-based systems worldwide.

Global, regional, and national burden of NAFLD in youths and young adults aged 15-39 years, 1990-2021, its attributable risk factors, and projections to 2035: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a significant health burden in youths and young adults, and the trend toward younger onset of NAFLD is alarming. Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, this study assessed the burden and trends of NAFLD in youths and young adults aged 15-39 from 1990 to 2021 and extracted data from this study on the incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) rates of NAFLD. We evaluated the global temporal trend of NAFLD from 1990 to 2021 with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and age-standardized rate (ASR). The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict future trends of the NAFLD burden to 2035. We found that the global burden of NAFLD in youths and young adults has risen steadily from 1990 to 2021, and projects to increase to 2035, which places enormous pressure on society. To alleviate this burden, implementing measures targeting risk factors such as glycemic control and smoking cessation is necessary.

Magnitude, patterns, and factors associated with liver disease among clinically suspected clients in Eastern Ethiopia: hidden public health tragedy

BACKGROUND

Liver diseases are a public health problem in developing regions, and the majority of them are asymptomatic. Evidence on the current burden of liver disease and associated context-specific risk factors is scarce in the study area, where various risk factors for liver disease, including khat chewing, smoking, and aflatoxin exposure, are common. This study was to assess the magnitude, patterns, and factors associated with liver disease among patients visiting governmental hospitals in eastern Ethiopia.

METHODS

A facility-based cross-sectional study was conducted among randomly selected 388 clinically suspected adults for liver disease visiting a public hospital in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia. Data was collected using a combination of structured questionnaires, physical examinations, and investigations through interviews, medical chart reviews, liver enzymes, and the results of ultrasound examinations. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were employed to determine the factors associated with liver disease. Candidate variables in bivariable analysis were selected based on p-values < 0.25, biological plausibility, and evidence of associations from previous studies. The level of significance was considered at a P-value < 0.05, and the adjusted odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval was reported.

RESULTS

A total of 388 (92%) adults were included and liver disease was diagnosed among 295 (76%; 71.5-80.2) of the study participants, where chronic liver disease due to non-viral (65.1%) and viral causes (34.9%) were prevalent. The risk of liver disease was higher among females (AOR = 3.43; 1.80-6.55) and under grade twelve (AOR = 3.90; 1.95-7.82) compared to counterparts. Furthermore, alcohol consumption (AOR = 3.14; 1.33-7.32), khat chewing (AOR = 1.69; 0.91-3.15), a history of hospitalization (AOR = 4.20; 2.29-7.11), and a history of intestinal parasite infection (AOR = 1.17; 0.55-2.49) were found to be positively associated with an increased risk of liver disease among adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Liver disease detection rate was found to be high and could be associated with substance use (alcohol and khat), history of hospitalization, and worm infection, which can be incorporated into the prevention strategies of liver diseases.

Assessment of hypoxia status in a rat chronic liver disease model using IVIM and T1 mapping

Objectives

This study was aimed to assess the diagnostic performance of intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and T1 mapping in detecting hypoxia status of chronic liver disease using a carbon tetrachloride (CCl4)-induced rat model.

Materials and methods

The hypoxia group of chronic liver disease consisted of eight rats induced by injection of CCl4 and the control group consisted of nine rats injected with pure olive oil. All 17 rats underwent MRI examination at week 13 after injection, using T1 mapping and IVIM. Liver specimens were subjected to immunohistochemical staining for the exogenous hypoxia marker pimonidazole and the endogenous hypoxia marker HIF-1α and scored semi-quantitatively. Differences in MRI multiparameters, pimonidazole H-scores, and HIF-1α were analyzed between the control and hypoxia groups. Correlations between MRI multiparameters and H-score, and MRI multiparameters and HIF-1α, were analyzed, and the diagnostic performance of multiparameter MRI was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Results

There were significant differences between the control group and the hypoxia group in D* values (p = 0.01) and f values (p = 0.025) of IVIM parameters, T1 mapping (p = 0.003), HIF-1α (p < 0.001) and pimonidazole scores (p = 0.004). D* (r = 0.508, p = 0.037) and T1 mapping (r = 0.489, p = 0.046) values positively correlated with pimonidazole scores. D* (r = 0.556, p = 0.020) and T1 mapping (r = 0.505, p = 0.039) showed a positive correlation with HIF-1α. The optimal cut-off value of T1 mapping was 941.527, and the sensitivity, specificity, and AUC were 87.5, 77.8, and 0.889 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.734-1), respectively.

Conclusion

IVIM and T1 Mapping are promising methods for non-invasive detection of hypoxia status in chronic liver diseases.

Understanding immunological insights of liver transplantation: a practice for attaining operational tolerance

Liver transplantation has been at the forefront of medical research, with efforts concentrated on understanding the intricate cellular and molecular dynamics involved this complex procedure. This body of work has chronicled critical clinical advancements, identified challenges, and highlighted progressive improvements in surgical practices. These concerted efforts have significantly contributed to the evolution and enhancement of liver transplantation, elevating it to its current level of sophistication. A successful liver transplant now demands an integrated, multidisciplinary approach that includes not only expanding the donor pool from deceased to living donors but also embracing advances in surgical methods, efficiently managing post-transplant complications, and, importantly, achieving operational tolerance. The latter, operational tolerance, is a state wherein the recipient's immune system is coaxed into accepting the transplanted organ without the long-term use of immunosuppressive drugs, thereby minimizing potential side effects, and improving quality of life. Understanding the critical immune mechanisms that aim to prevent graft rejection is essential from an immunological perspective. This review aims to highlight the crucial areas of host versus graft immune responses, making a clear distinction between organs received from living and deceased donors. It examines how these immune responses, both innate and adaptive, are initiated and proposes the exploration of molecular docking sites as a strategy to curb unwanted immune reactions. Additionally, this review explores the promising potential of biomarkers in predicting graft rejection, and emphasizes the importance of achieving tolerance and the continuous quest for innovative strategies to enhance the success and longevity of liver transplants.

Effects of air pollution on the development and progression of digestive diseases: an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses

Air pollution, especially particulate matter (PM), is one of the most common risk factors for global burden of disease. However, its effect on the risk of digestive diseases is unclear. Herein, we attempt to explore this issue by reviewing the existing evidence from published meta-analyses. We conducted a systematic literature search to identify all relevant meta-analyses regarding the association of air pollution with digestive diseases, and summarize their major findings. We assessed the methodological quality and evidence quality of the included meta-analyses using the AMSTAR-2 and GRADE tools, respectively, and the overlap of primary studies was assessed by the GROOVE tool. Nine meta-analyses were included in our analysis, containing 43 primary studies with high overlap. In the included meta-analyses, the methodological quality was from critically low to moderate, and the evidence quality was from very low to moderate. The exposure was primarily PM2.5. Seven, four, and one meta-analysis investigated the effect of air pollution on liver diseases, gastrointestinal diseases, and pancreatic diseases, respectively. PM2.5 exposure was significantly associated with liver dysfunction, chronic liver diseases, liver cancer, and colorectal cancer, but not oesophagus cancer, gastric cancer, or pancreatic cancer. Based on very low to moderate quality evidence from meta-analyses, PM2.5 exposure may contribute to the development of some digestive diseases, especially liver diseases.

The effects of diacylglycerol edible oil intervention in patients with chronic metabolic syndrome combined with asymptomatic hyperuricemia: study protocol for a multicenter, prospective, double-blind, randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study is to evaluate the efficacy and safety of diacylglycerol (DAG) edible oil intervention in patients with chronic metabolic syndrome complicated by asymptomatic hyperuricemia through a multicenter, prospective, double-blind, randomized controlled clinical trial.

METHODS

A multicenter, double-blind, and randomized controlled trial involving 176 patients was designed. All patients with chronic metabolic syndrome complicated by asymptomatic hyperuricemia who meet inclusion and exclusion criteria will be included in the study and will be randomized to either group A or group B. Group A will receive DAG-rich oil (≥ 80%) and group B will receive conventional cooking oil (triacylglycerol (TAG)-rich oil) for 12 weeks. Serum uric acid level is the primary outcome. Fasting blood glucose, 2 h postprandial blood glucose, fasting insulin, glycated hemoglobin, lipid profile, and average carotid intima-media thickness will be evaluated as the secondary outcomes. Blood routine, urine routine, liver enzymes, and electrocardiogram will be tested to assess the safety. The sample size for each group was calculated to be 88 cases.

DISCUSSION

We will evaluate the efficacy and safety of DAG oil compared with conventional TAG oil in patients with chronic metabolic syndrome with asymptomatic hyperuricemia. The dietary oil with superior efficacy and better safety will be recommended for reference use.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Chinese Clinical Trial Registry ChiCTR2400085336. Registered on June 5, 2024.

Global temporal trends and projections of hepatitis B-related cirrhosis among adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2035: an analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021

Background

Chronic hepatitis B and cirrhosis pose significant global health threats. Few studies have explored the disease burden and mortality trend of cirrhosis caused by hepatitis B virus infection among adolescents and young adults (AYAs, aged 15-39 years). This study aimed to assess the disease burden and trends.

Methods

Publicly available data were obtained from the 2021 GBD database. The rates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years were calculated at the global, regional, and national levels. Temporal trends were assessed using joinpoint regression analysis, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict future trends.

Results

From 1990 to 2021, the global incidence rate of hepatitis B-related cirrhosis decreased from 111.33 (95% uncertainty interval: 89.18 to 134.98) to 67.75 (54.06 to 82.71) per 100,000 with an average annual percentage change of -1.58 (95% confidence interval: -1.66 to -1.51, p < 0.001). However, between 1990 and 2021, the incidence numbers in the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups increased by 23.75 and 21.24%, respectively. The number of deaths in low and low-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) areas increased by 79.51 and 20.62%, respectively. Moreover, it is predicted that the numbers of incidences and deaths will continue to rise in areas with low SDI. At the regional level, Central Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest incidence and mortality rates. In 2021, Somalia and the Democratic Republic of Congo had the highest incidence rates, whereas Kiribati and Cambodia had the highest mortality rates.

Conclusion

The overall burden of hepatitis B-related cirrhosis among AYAs has decreased over the past three decades. Nevertheless, there was a slight increase in the incidence number among individuals aged 30-39 years. The substantial burden and predicted rise in the numbers of incidences and deaths in low SDI areas underscore the need for sustained and targeted public health interventions.

Natural History of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease: From Metabolic Syndrome to Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Introduction: Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD) stems from disrupted lipid metabolism in the liver, often linked to obesity, type 2 diabetes, and dyslipidemia. In Mexico, where obesity affects 36.9% of adults, MASLD prevalence has risen, especially with metabolic syndrome affecting 56.31% by 2018. MASLD can progress to Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis (MASH), affecting 5.27% globally, leading to severe complications like cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Background: Visceral fat distribution varies by gender, impacting MASLD development due to hormonal influences. Insulin resistance plays a central role in MASLD pathogenesis, exacerbated by high-fat diets and specific fatty acids, leading to hepatic steatosis. Lipotoxicity from saturated fatty acids further damages hepatocytes, triggering inflammation and fibrosis progression in MASH. Diagnosing MASLD traditionally involves invasive liver biopsy, but non-invasive methods like ultrasound and transient elastography are preferred due to their safety and availability. These methods detect liver steatosis and fibrosis with reasonable accuracy, offering alternatives to biopsy despite varying sensitivity and specificity. Conclusions: MASLD as a metabolic disorder underscores its impact on public health, necessitating improved awareness and early management strategies to mitigate its progression to severe liver diseases.

Aurora kinase A promotes hepatic stellate cell activation and liver fibrosis through the Wnt/β-catenin pathway

AIMS

Aurora kinase A (AURKA) has been implicated in promoting myeloid and renal fibrosis. This study aimed to investigate the impact and underlying mechanism of AURKA on liver fibrosis and to assess the therapeutic potential of MLN8237, a small-molecule AURKA inhibitor, in preventing liver fibrosis in mice.

METHODS

The research used bioinformatics analysis and immunohistochemistry staining on fibrotic liver tissues from human and mouse models to assess AURKA expression. The cellular localization of AURKA was determined through double immunofluorescence staining in human fibrotic liver tissues and primary mouse hepatic stellate cells. RNA interference and AURKA antagonism were used to examine the effects of AURKA on liver fibrosis, while RNA-sequencing, qRT-PCR, and western blotting were employed to elucidate the potential molecular mechanisms of AURKA on hepatic stellate cell activation.

RESULTS

The results showed that AURKA was positively correlated with the progression of liver fibrosis and was predominantly expressed in activated HSCs. Silencing AURKA inhibited HSC activation and proliferation, and induced HSC apoptosis, effects that were similar to those observed with MLN8237 treatment. Additionally, silencing AURKA suppressed the glycogen synthase kinase-3β/β-catenin signaling pathway. Pharmacological inhibition of AURKA phosphorylation also resulted in reduced liver fibrosis in vivo.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, AURKA may promote HSC activation and liver fibrosis through the Wnt/β-catenin pathway, suggesting its potential as a therapeutic target for liver fibrosis.

Prevalence of under-nutrition and associated factors among patients with liver cirrhosis at a tertiary hospital in Ethiopia

Liver cirrhosis is a major health burden, resulting in over 1 million deaths per year worldwide. Nutritional imbalance often complicates the course of liver diseases, particularly of cirrhosis and has been linked to increased mortality. Despite the high disease burden, there is paucity of literature regarding the magnitude of under-nutrition in patients with cirrhosis and its associated factors in Ethiopia and sub-Saharan Africa. The study aimed to assess the prevalence of under-nutrition and its associated factors among adult out-patients with liver cirrhosis. A hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 136 adult out-patients with cirrhosis who visited the hepatology clinic of St. Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College. Data were obtained through patient interviews, medical record reviews, anthropometric and handgrip strength measurements and collected using a structured checklist and analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 26.0. Body mass index with cutoff points adjusted for the degree of ascites were used to diagnose under-nutrition. Descriptive statistical tools and binary and multivariable logistic regression analyses were employed, and statistical significance was set at <0.05. The mean age of study participants was 39.5 years (standard deviation: ±11.2) and 62.5% were males. Chronic hepatitis B virus infection (57.4%) was the most common cause of liver cirrhosis, followed by alcohol-associated liver cirrhosis (12.5%). The majority (70.6%) of the study participants were undernourished. The factors found to have statistically significant association with under-nutrition were, rural area of residence (adjusted odds ratios [AOR]: 5.65, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.98-16.1), presence of ascites (AOR: 2.43, 95% CI: 1.03-5.7) and the disease severity, as measured by the child-pugh class (AOR, 1.11; 95% CI: 0.45-2.7). Under-nutrition was found to be a common problem among out-patients with liver cirrhosis and patients from rural areas and those with advanced disease were disproportionately affected. It is imperative to implement routine nutritional screening and plan on appropriate interventions for patients with liver cirrhosis.

Neurogastroenterology and motility disorders in patients with cirrhosis

Neurogastroenterology and motility disorders are complex gastrointestinal conditions that are prevalent worldwide, particularly affecting women and younger individuals. These conditions significantly impact the quality of life of people suffering from them. There is increasing evidence linking these disorders to cirrhosis, with a higher prevalence compared to the general population. However, the link between neurogastroenterology and motility disorders and cirrhosis remains unclear due to undefined mechanisms. In addition, managing these conditions in cirrhosis is often limited by the adverse effects of drugs commonly used for these disorders, presenting a significant clinical challenge in the routine management of patients with cirrhosis. This review delves into this connection, exploring potential pathophysiological links and clinical interventions between neurogastroenterology disorders and cirrhosis.

Machine learning models to further identify advantaged populations that can achieve functional cure of chronic hepatitis B virus infection after receiving Peg-IFN alpha treatment

OBJECTIVE

Functional cure is currently the highest goal of hepatitis B virus(HBV) treatment.Pegylated interferon(Peg-IFN) alpha is an important drug for this purpose,but even in the hepatitis B e antigen(HBeAg)-negative population,there is still a portion of the population respond poorly to it.Therefore,it is important to explore the influencing factors affecting the response rate of Peg-IFN alpha and establish a prediction model to further identify advantaged populations.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 382 patients.297 patients were in the training set and 85 patients from another hospital were in the test set.The intersect features were extracted from all variables using the recursive feature elimination(RFE) algorithm, Boruta algorithm, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO) regression algorithm in the training dataset.Then,we employed six machine learning(ML) algorithms-Logistic Regression(LR),Random Forest(RF),Support Vector Machines(SVM),K Nearest Neighbors(KNN),Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LightGBM) and Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)-to develop the model.Internal 10-fold cross-validation helped determine the best-performing model,which was then tested externally.Model performance was assessed using metrics such as area under the curve(AUC) and other metrics.SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP) plots were used to interpret variable significance.

RESULTS

138/382(36.13 %) patients achieved functional cure.HBsAg at baseline,HBsAg decline at week12,non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD) and age were identified as significant variables.RF performed the best,with AUC value of 0.988,and maintained good performance in test set.The SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP) plot highlighted HBsAg at baseline and HBsAg decline at week 12 are the top two predictors.The web-calculator was designed to predict functional cure more conveniently(https://www.xsmartanalysis.com/model/list/predict/model/html?mid = 17054&symbol = 317ad245Hx628ko3uW51).

CONCLUSION

We developed a prediction model,which can be used to not only accurately identifies advantageous populations with Peg-IFN alpha,but also determines whether to continue subsequent Peg-IFN alpha.

Insulin-like growth factor-1 in cirrhosis is linked to hepatic dysfunction and fibrogenesis and predicts liver-related mortality

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We aimed to characterise insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) signalling in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD).

METHODS

Consecutive patients undergoing hepatic venous pressure gradient [HVPG] measurement were prospectively included. Clinical stages were defined as follows: probable ACLD (pACLD): liver stiffness ≥10 kPa and HVPG ≤5 mmHg, S0: mild PH (HVPG 6-9 mmHg), S1: clinically significant PH (CSPH), S2: CSPH with varices, S3: past variceal bleeding, S4: past/current non-bleeding hepatic decompensation and S5: further decompensation.

RESULTS

In total, 269 patients were included; 105 were compensated (pACLD: n = 18; S0: n = 30; S1: n = 20; S2: n = 37), and 164 were decompensated (S3: n = 11; S4: n = 89; S5: n = 64). Median levels of IGF-1 decreased with progressive cirrhosis (from pACLD: 88.5 ng/mL to S5: 51.0 ng/mL; p < 0.001). Patients with CSPH had significantly lower IGF-1 levels (63.5 ng/mL vs. 81.0 ng/mL; p = 0.001). IGF-1 showed an independent negative association with body mass index (BMI; aB: -1.56; p < 0.001), enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test (aB: -8.43; p < 0.001), MELD (aB: -1.13; p = 0.042) and age (per 10 years; aB: -6.87; p < 0.001). IGF-1 exhibited an excellent AUROC (0.856) for the prediction of liver-related death at 6 months of follow-up. Lower IGF-1 (per 10 ng/mL) was linked to higher risk of (further) decompensation (0.90; 95% CI: 0.83-0.98; p = 0.016), acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF; asHR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.68-0.93; p = 0.004) and liver-related death (asHR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.63-0.91; p = 0.004).

CONCLUSION

Decreased levels of IGF-1 reflect impaired hepatic function and fibrogenesis in patients with cirrhosis, which seems particularly relevant in obesity since low IGF-1 was independently linked to high BMI. Lower IGF-1 in cirrhosis predicts decompensation, ACLF and liver-related death.

Hepatoprotective Potential of Murraya koenigii (Curry Leaves) against Xenobiotics, Heavy Metals, and Hepatotoxic Agents: A Comprehensive Review

Liver disease, responsible for two million annual deaths, causes Chronic Liver Disease (CLD) and cirrhosis, causing roughly a million deaths yearly. Treatment options for liver injury induced by hepatotoxicity vary, including medication (N-acetylcysteine, corticosteroids, and ursodeoxycholic acid), lifestyle changes, and sometimes liver transplant. However, effectiveness varies, and some treatments carry risks and side effects, highlighting the need for improved therapeutic approaches. Murraya koenigii (MK) is known for its hepatoprotective, antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, anti-microbial, nephroprotective, hepatoprotective, gastroprotective, cardioprotective, neuroprotective, wound-healing, anti-cancerous and immunomodulatory effects, etc. This review highlights the effectiveness of MK against liver damage induced by heavy metals, drug abuse, xenobiotics, etc. A comprehensive search across multiple databases like PubMed, Google Scholar, and others for articles on various hepatotoxicants and hepatoprotective activity of MK was conducted. The researchers applied specific search terms and limits, resulting in 149 eligible articles for final analysis, meeting predetermined inclusion criteria and excluding irrelevant studies. According to the available literature, the phytochemical components of MK, such as flavonoids, tannins, and alkaloids present in various extracts, play a crucial role in reversing the hepatotoxic effects by modifying oxidative and ER stresses, re-establishing the hepatic biochemical markers and enzymes involved in metabolism denoting ameliorative activity, and controlling the expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines. To conclude, this review highlights that MK has great potential as a natural hepatoprotective agent, providing a versatile defense against a range of injuries caused by heavy metals, xenobiotics, and common hepatotoxic agents.