Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production

Genomic selection for crop improvement in fruits and vegetables: a systematic scoping review

To ensure the nutritional needs of an expanding global population, it is crucial to optimize the growing capabilities and breeding values of fruit and vegetable crops. While genomic selection, initially implemented in animal breeding, holds tremendous potential, its utilization in fruit and vegetable crops remains underexplored. In this systematic review, we reviewed 63 articles covering genomic selection and its applications across 25 different types of fruit and vegetable crops over the last decade. The traits examined were directly related to the edible parts of the crops and carried significant economic importance. Comparative analysis with WHO/FAO data identified potential economic drivers underlying the study focus of some crops and highlighted crops with potential for further genomic selection research and application. Factors affecting genomic selection accuracy in fruit and vegetable studies are discussed and suggestions made to assist in their implementation into plant breeding schemes. Genetic gain in fruits and vegetables can be improved by utilizing genomic selection to improve selection intensity, accuracy, and integration of genetic variation. However, the reduction of breeding cycle times may not be beneficial in crops with shorter life cycles such as leafy greens as compared to fruit trees. There is an urgent need to integrate genomic selection methods into ongoing breeding programs and assess the actual genomic estimated breeding values of progeny resulting from these breeding programs against the prediction models.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11032-024-01497-2.

Response of the Northeast China grain market to climate change based on the gravity model approach

Scientific evidence has revealed that climate change negatively affects agricultural crop production both regionally and globally. Previous studies have indicated that the role of climate change is significant in some parts of China. Thus, assessing the impact of the future climate on the grain market is vital for ensuring regional and national food security. In this study, regional climate model (RCM 4.5 and 8.5) simulations were employed to investigate the role of future climate change on a major grain-producing market in China (Northeast China). For this purpose, historical (2004-2017) and future (2020-2076) data were applied in the gravity model to examine the effects of climate change on the Northeast China grain market. The results revealed that the maximum temperature is a crucial climate factor that significantly affects the grain market. The analysis revealed that precipitation was positively related and that the temperature was significantly negatively related to domestic consumption and exports of rice, maize, and soybean. Moreover, the analysis of the RCM (4.5 and 8.5) simulations revealed a negative contribution of the maximum temperature to domestic consumption and export levels. Overall, the analysis enhances our understanding of the impacts of climate change on the Northeast China grain market.

Identifying the physiological traits associated with DNA marker using genome wide association in wheat under heat stress

Heat stress poses a significant environmental challenge that profoundly impacts wheat productivity. It disrupts vital physiological processes such as photosynthesis, by impeding the functionality of the photosynthetic apparatus and compromising plasma membrane stability, thereby detrimentally affecting grain development in wheat. The scarcity of identified marker trait associations pertinent to thermotolerance presents a formidable obstacle in the development of marker-assisted selection strategies against heat stress. To address this, wheat accessions were systematically exposed to both normal and heat stress conditions and phenotypic data were collected on physiological traits including proline content, canopy temperature depression, cell membrane injury, photosynthetic rate, transpiration rate (at vegetative and reproductive stage and 'stay-green'. Principal component analysis elucidated the most significant contributors being proline content, transpiration rate, and canopy temperature depression, which exhibited a synergistic relationship with grain yield. Remarkably, cluster analysis delineated the wheat accessions into four discrete groups based on physiological attributes. Moreover, to explore the relationship between physiological traits and DNA markers, 158 wheat accessions were genotyped with 186 SSRs. Allelic frequency and polymorphic information content value were found to be highest on genome A (4.94 and 0.688), chromosome 1A (5.00 and 0.712), and marker Xgwm44 (13.0 and 0.916). Population structure, principal coordinate analysis and cluster analysis also partitioned the wheat accessions into four subpopulations based on genotypic data, highlighting their genetic homogeneity. Population diversity and presence of linkage disequilibrium established the suitability of population for association mapping. Additionally, linkage disequilibrium decay was most pronounced within a 15-20 cM region on chromosome 1A. Association mapping revealed highly significant marker trait associations at Bonferroni correction P < 0.00027. Markers Xwmc418 (located on chromosome 3D) and Xgwm233 (chromosome 7A) demonstrated associations with transpiration rate, while marker Xgwm494 (chromosome 3A) exhibited an association with photosynthetic rates at both vegetative and reproductive stages under heat stress conditions. Additionally, markers Xwmc201 (chromosome 6A) and Xcfa2129 (chromosome 1A) displayed robust associations with canopy temperature depression, while markers Xbarc163 (chromosome 4B) and Xbarc49 (chromosome 5A) were strongly associated with cell membrane injury at both stages. Notably, marker Xbarc49 (chromosome 5A) exhibited a significant association with the 'stay-green' trait under heat stress conditions. These results offers the potential utility in marker-assisted selection, gene pyramiding and genomic selection models to predict performance of wheat accession under heat stress conditions.

Spatio-temporal change of winter wheat yield and its quantitative responses to compound frost-dry events - An example of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China from 2001 to 2020

Extreme climate events such as frost and drought have great influence on wheat growth and yield. Understanding the effects of frost, drought and compound frost-dry events on wheat growth and yield is of great significance for ensuring national food security. In this study, wheat yield prediction model (SCYMvp) was developed by combining crop growth model (CGM), satellite images and meteorological variables. Wheat yield maps in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHHP) during 2001-2020 were generated using SCYMvp model. Meanwhile, accumulative frost days (AFD), accumulative dry days (ADD) and accumulative frost-dry days (AFDD) in different growth periods of wheat were calculated, and the effects of frost and drought on wheat yield were quantified by the first difference method and linear mixed model. The results showed that wheat yield increased significantly, while the rising trend was obvious at more than half of the regions. Extreme climate events (ECEs) showed a relatively stable change trend, although the change trend was significant only in a few areas. Compared with frost and drought in the early growth period, ECEs in the middle growth period (spring ECEs) had more negative effects on wheat growth and yield. Wheat yield was negatively correlated with spring ECEs, and yield loss was between 4.6 and 49.8 kg/ha for each 1 d increase of spring ECEs. The effects of spring ECEs on wheat yield were ranked as AFDD > AFD > ADD. The negative effect of ADD on wheat yield in the late growth period was higher than that in the other periods. The negative effects of spring ECEs on yield in southern regions were higher than those in northern regions. Overall, due to the adverse effects of frost and drought on wheat yield in the middle and late growth periods, the mean annual yield loss was 6.4 %, among which spring AFD caused the greatest loss to wheat yield (3.1 %). The results have important guiding significance for formulating climate adaptation management strategies.

Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies

This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950-2020 and 1850-2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950-2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970-2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies.

Individual or successiveseed priming with nitric oxide and calcium toward enhancing salt tolerance of wheat crop through early ROS detoxification and activation of antioxidant defense

Despite the considerable efforts reported so far to enhance seed priming, novel ideas are still needed to be suggested to this sustainable sector of agri-seed industry. This could be the first study addressing the effect of nitric oxide (NO) under open field conditions. The impacts of seed redox-priming using sodium nitroprusside (SNP) and osmo-priming with calcium chloride (CaCl2), both applied individually or successively, were investigated under salinity stress conditions on wheat plants (Triticum aestivum L.). Various parameters, including water relations, growth, yield, photosynthetic pigments, and antioxidant activities (enzymatic and non-enzymatic), were recorded to assess the outcomes of these priming agents on mitigating the negative impacts of salinity stress on wheat plants. Water consumptive use (ETa) and irrigation water applied (IWA) decreased with seeds priming. Successive priming with SNP + CaCl2 induced the greatest values of crop water productivity (CWP), irrigation water productivity (IWP), seed index, grain yield and grain nitrogen content.Under salinity stress, the dry weight of plants was decreased. However, hydro-priming and successive chemical priming agents using combinations of calcium chloride and sodium nitroprusside (CaCl2 + SNP & SNP + CaCl2) preserved growth under salinity stress.Individual priming with sodium nitroprusside (SNP) and calcium chloride (CaCl2) resulted in the lowest recorded content of sodium in the shoot, with a value of 2 ppm. On the other hand, successive priming using CaCl2 + SNP or SNP + CaCl2 induced the contents of potassium in the shoot, with values of 40 ppm and 39 ppm, respectively. Malondialdehyde decreased in shoot significantly withapplicationof priming agents. Successive priming with CaCl2 + SNP induced the highest proline contents in shoot (6 µg/ g FW). The highest value of phenolics and total antioxidants contents in shoot were recorded under successive priming using CaCl2 + SNP and SNP + CaCl2.Priming agents improved the activities of ascorbate peroxidase and catalase enzymes. The successive priming improved water relations (ETa, IWA, CWP and IWP) and wheat growth and productivity under salinity stress more than individual priming treatments.

Effects of Heat Stress during Anthesis and Grain Filling Stages on Some Physiological and Agronomic Traits in Diverse Wheat Genotypes

Heat stress represents a significant environmental challenge that adversely impacts the growth, physiology, and productivity of wheat. In order to determine the response to high temperatures of the wheat varieties developed mostly in the Pannonian environmental zone, as well as varietal differences, we subjected seven varieties from Serbia, one from Australia, and one from the UK to thermal stress during anthesis and mid-grain filling and combined stress during both of these periods. The changes in chlorophyll fluorescence and index, leaf temperature, and main agronomic traits of nine winter wheat varieties were investigated under high temperatures. Heat stress negatively affected leaf temperature, chlorophyll fluorescence, and the chlorophyll index during different growth stages. Compared to the control, stress at anthesis, mid-grain filling, and combined stress resulted in yield reductions of 32%, 46%, and 59%, respectively. Single treatment at anthesis had a more severe effect on the number of grains per plant, causing a 38% reduction compared to the control. Moreover, single treatment during mid-grain filling resulted in the greatest decline in grain weight, with a 29% reduction compared to the control. There was a significant varietal variation in heat tolerance, highlighting Avangarda and NS 40s as the most tolerant varieties that should be included in regular breeding programs as valuable sources of heat tolerance. Understanding the genetic and physiological mechanisms of heat tolerance in these promising varieties should be the primary focus of future research and help develop targeted breeding strategies and agronomic practices to mitigate the adverse effects of heat stress on wheat production.

Relative effects of melatonin and hydrogen sulfide treatments in mitigating salt damage in wheat

Soil salinity poses a significant threat to agricultural productivity, impacting the growth and yield of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) plants. This study investigates the potential of melatonin (MT; 100 µM) and hydrogen sulfide (H2S; 200 µM sodium hydrosulfide, NaHS) to confer the tolerance of wheat plants to 100 mM NaCl. Salinity stress induced the outburst of reactive oxygen species (ROS) resulting in damage to the chloroplast structure, growth, photosynthesis, and yield. Application of either MT or NaHS augmented the activity of antioxidant enzymes, superoxide dismutase, ascorbate peroxidase, glutathione reductase, and reduced glutathione (GSH) levels, upregulated the expression of Na+ transport genes (SOS1, SOS2, SOS3, NHX1), resulting in mitigation of salinity stress. Thus, improved stomatal behavior, gas-exchange parameters, and maintenance of chloroplast structure resulted in enhanced activity of the Calvin cycle enzymes and overall enhancement of growth, photosynthetic, and yield performance of plants under salinity stress. The use of DL-propargylglycine (PAG, an inhibitor of hydrogen sulfide biosynthesis) and p-chlorophenyl alanine (p-CPA, an inhibitor of melatonin biosynthesis) to plants under salt stress showed the comparative necessity of MT and H2S in mitigation of salinity stress. In the presence of PAG, more pronounced detrimental effects were observed than in the presence of p-CPA, emphasizing that MT was involved in mitigating salinity through various potential pathways, one of which was through H2S.

Heat Stress and Plant-Biotic Interactions: Advances and Perspectives

Climate change presents numerous challenges for agriculture, including frequent events of plant abiotic stresses such as elevated temperatures that lead to heat stress (HS). As the primary driving factor of climate change, HS threatens global food security and biodiversity. In recent years, HS events have negatively impacted plant physiology, reducing plant's ability to maintain disease resistance and resulting in lower crop yields. Plants must adapt their priorities toward defense mechanisms to tolerate stress in challenging environments. Furthermore, selective breeding and long-term domestication for higher yields have made crop varieties vulnerable to multiple stressors, making them more susceptible to frequent HS events. Studies on climate change predict that concurrent HS and biotic stresses will become more frequent and severe in the future, potentially occurring simultaneously or sequentially. While most studies have focused on singular stress effects on plant systems to examine how plants respond to specific stresses, the simultaneous occurrence of HS and biotic stresses pose a growing threat to agricultural productivity. Few studies have explored the interactions between HS and plant-biotic interactions. Here, we aim to shed light on the physiological and molecular effects of HS and biotic factor interactions (bacteria, fungi, oomycetes, nematodes, insect pests, pollinators, weedy species, and parasitic plants), as well as their combined impact on crop growth and yields. We also examine recent advances in designing and developing various strategies to address multi-stress scenarios related to HS and biotic factors.

Discovering novel genomic regions explaining adaptation of bread wheat to conservation agriculture through GWAS

To sustainably increase wheat yield to meet the growing world population's food demand in the face of climate change, Conservation Agriculture (CA) is a promising approach. Still, there is a lack of genomic studies investigating the genetic basis of crop adaptation to CA. To dissect the genetic architecture of 19 morpho-physiological traits that could be involved in the enhanced adaptation and performance of genotypes under CA, we performed GWAS to identify MTAs under four contrasting production regimes viz., conventional tillage timely sown (CTTS), conservation agriculture timely sown (CATS), conventional tillage late sown (CTLS) and conservation agriculture late sown (CALS) using an association panel of 183 advanced wheat breeding lines along with 5 checks. Traits like Phi2 (Quantum yield of photosystem II; CATS:0.37, CALS: 0.31), RC (Relative chlorophyll content; CATS:55.51, CALS: 54.47) and PS1 (Active photosystem I centers; CATS:2.45, CALS: 2.23) have higher mean values in CA compared to CT under both sowing times. GWAS identified 80 MTAs for the studied traits across four production environments. The phenotypic variation explained (PVE) by these QTNs ranged from 2.15 to 40.22%. Gene annotation provided highly informative SNPs associated with Phi2, NPQ (Quantum yield of non-photochemical quenching), PS1, and RC which were linked with genes that play crucial roles in the physiological adaptation under both CA and CT. A highly significant SNP AX94651261 (9.43% PVE) was identified to be associated with Phi2, while two SNP markers AX94730536 (30.90% PVE) and AX94683305 (16.99% PVE) were associated with NPQ. Identified QTNs upon validation can be used in marker-assisted breeding programs to develop CA adaptive genotypes.

Transgenic tobacco plants overexpressing a wheat salt stress root protein (TaSSRP) exhibit enhanced tolerance to heat stress

BACKGROUND

Heat stress is a detrimental abiotic stress that limits the development of many plant species and is linked to a variety of cellular and physiological problems. Heat stress affects membrane fluidity, which leads to negative effects on cell permeability and ion transport. Research reveals that heat stress causes severe damage to cells and leads to rapid accumulation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), which could cause programmed cell death.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This current study aimed to validate the role of Triticum aestivum Salt Stress Root Protein (TaSSRP) in plants' tolerance to heat stress by modulating its expression in tobacco plants. The Relative Water Content (RWC), total chlorophyll content, and Membrane Stability Index (MSI) of the seven distinct transgenic lines (T0 - 2, T0 - 3, T0 - 6, T0 - 8, T0 - 9, T0 - 11, and T0 - 13), increased in response to heat stress. Despite the fact that the same tendency was detected in wild-type (WT) plants, changes in physio-biochemical parameters were greater in transgenic lines than in WT plants. The expression analysis revealed that the transgene TaSSRP expressed from 1.00 to 1.809 folds in different lines in the transgenic tobacco plants. The gene TaSSRP offered resistance to heat stress in Nicotiana tabacum, according to the results of the study.

CONCLUSION

These findings could help to improve our knowledge and understanding of the mechanism underlying thermotolerance in wheat, and the novel identified gene TaSSRP could be used in generating wheat varieties with enhanced tolerance to heat stress.

Various extracts of the brown seaweed Cystoseira barbata with different compositions exert biostimulant effects on seedling growth of wheat

Worldwide, where the demand for novel and greener solutions for sustainable agricultural production is increasing, the use of eco-friendly products such as seaweed-derived biostimulants as pre-sowing treatment represent a promising and important approach for the future. Cystoseira barbata, a brown seaweed species abundant in the Mediterranean Region, was collected from the Marmara Sea and subjected to water, alkali, and acidic extractions, and the biostimulant activity of these extracts was tested on wheat (Triticum durum cv. Saricanak-98) using different rates through application to the seeds or germination medium (substrate) applications. The different extracts were characterized by mineral, total phenolic, free amino acid, mannitol, polysaccharide, antioxidant concentrations and hormone-like activity. The effects of the extracts on growth parameters, root morphology, esterase activity, and mineral nutrient concentrations of wheat seedlings were investigated. Our results suggest that the substrate application was more effective in enhancing the seedling performance compared to the seed treatment. High rates of seaweed extracts applied to substrates increased the shoot length and fresh weight of wheat seedlings by up to 20 and 25%, respectively. The substrate applications enhanced the root fresh weights of wheat seedlings by up to 25% when compared to control plants. Among the biostimulant extract applications, the water extract at the highest rate yielded the most promising results in terms of the measured parameters. Cystoseira barbata extracts with different compositions can be used as effective biostimulants to boost seedling growth. The local seaweed biomass affected by mucilage problems, has great potential as a bioeconomy resource and can contribute to sustainable practices for agriculture.

Dissecting the effect of heat stress on durum wheat under field conditions

Introduction

Heat stress negatively affects wheat production in several ways, mainly by reducing growth rate, photosynthetic capacity and reducing spike fertility. Modeling stress response means analyzing simultaneous relationships among traits affecting the whole plant response and determinants of grain yield. The aim of this study was to dissect the diverse impacts of heat stress on key yield traits and to identify the most promising sources of alleles for heat tolerance.

Methods

We evaluated a diverse durum wheat panel of 183 cultivars and breeding lines from worldwide, for their response to long-term heat stress under field conditions (HS) with respect to non stress conditions (NS), considering phenological traits, grain yield (GY) and its components as a function of the timing of heat stress and climatic covariates. We investigated the relationships among plant and environmental variables by means of a structural equation model (SEM) and Genetic SEM (GSEM).

Results

Over two years of experiments at CENEB, CIMMYT, the effects of HS were particularly pronounced for the normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI (-51.3%), kernel weight per spike, KWS (-40.5%), grain filling period, GFP (-38.7%), and GY (-56.6%). Average temperatures around anthesis were negatively correlated with GY, thousand kernel weight TKW and test weight TWT, but also with spike density, a trait determined before heading/anthesis. Under HS, the correlation between the three major determinants of GY, i.e., fertile spike density, spike fertility and kernel size, were of noticeable magnitude. NDVI measured at medium milk-soft dough stage under HS was correlated with both spike fertility and grain weight while under NS it was less predictive of grain weight but still highly correlated with spike fertility. GSEM modeling suggested that the causal model of performance under HS directly involves genetic effects on GY, NDVI, KWS and HD.

Discussion

We identified consistently suitable sources of genetic resistance to heat stress to be used in different durum wheat pre-breeding programs. Among those, Desert Durums and CIMMYT'80 germplasm showed the highest degree of adaptation and capacity to yield under high temperatures and can be considered as a valuable source of alleles for adaptation to breed new HS resilient cultivars.

Influence of climatic variables on maize grain yield and its components by adjusting the sowing date

Yield and its components are greatly affected by climate change. Adjusting the sowing date is an effective way to alleviate adverse effects and adapt to climate change. Aiming to determine the optimal sowing date of summer maize and clarify the contribution of climatic variables to grain yield and its components, a consecutive 4-year field experiment was conducted from 2016 to 2019 with four sowing dates at 10-day intervals from 5 June to 5 July. Analysis of historical meteorological data showed that more solar radiation (SR) was distributed from early June to mid-August, and the maximum temperature (Tmax) > 32°C appeared from early July to late August, which advanced and lasted longer in 1991-2020 relative to 1981-1990. Additionally, the precipitation was mainly distributed from early June to late July. The climate change in the growing season of summer maize resulted in optimal sowing dates ranging from 5 June to 15 June, with higher yields and yield stability, mainly because of the higher kernel number per ear and 1,000-grain weight. The average contribution of kernel number per ear to grain yield was 58.7%, higher than that of 1,000-grain weight (41.3%). Variance partitioning analysis showed that SR in 15 days pre-silking to 15 days post-silking (SS) and silking to harvest (SH) stages significantly contributed to grain yield by 63.1% and 86.4%. The extreme growing degree days (EDD) > 32°C, SR, precipitation, and diurnal temperature range (DTR) contributed 20.6%, 22.9%, 14.5%, and 42.0% to kernel number per ear in the SS stage, respectively. Therefore, we concluded that the early sowing dates could gain high yield and yield stability due to the higher SR in the growing season. Meanwhile, due to the decreasing trend in SR and increasing Tmax trend in this region, in the future, new maize varieties with high-temperature resistance, high light efficiency, shade tolerance, and medium-season traits need to be bred to adapt to climate change and increased grain yield.

Ameliorative impacts of gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) on seedling growth, physiological biomarkers, and gene expression in eight wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars under salt stress

Plants spontaneously accumulate γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA), a nonprotein amino acid, in response to various stressors. Nevertheless, there is limited knowledge regarding the precise molecular mechanisms that plants employ to cope with salt stress. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of GABA on the salt tolerance of eight distinct varieties of bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) by examining plant growth rates and physiological and molecular response characteristics. The application of salt stress had a detrimental impact on plant growth markers. Nevertheless, the impact was mitigated by the administration of GABA in comparison to the control treatment. When the cultivars Gemmiza 7, Gemmiza 9, and Gemmiza 12 were exposed to GABA at two distinct salt concentrations, there was a substantial increase in both the leaf chlorophyll content and photosynthetic rate. Both the control wheat cultivars and the plants exposed to salt treatment and GABA treatment showed alterations in stress-related biomarkers and antioxidants. This finding demonstrated that GABA plays a pivotal role in mitigating the impact of salt treatments on wheat cultivars. Among the eight examined kinds of wheat, CV. Gemmiza 7 and CV. Gemmiza 11 exhibited the most significant alterations in the expression of their TaSOS1 genes. CV. Misr 2, CV. Sakha 94, and CV. Sakha 95 exhibited the highest degree of variability in the expression of the NHX1, DHN3, and GR genes, respectively. The application of GABA to wheat plants enhances their ability to cope with salt stress by reducing the presence of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and other stress indicators, regulating stomatal aperture, enhancing photosynthesis, activating antioxidant enzymes, and upregulating genes involved in salt stress tolerance.

Global impacts of heat and water stress on food production and severe food insecurity

In contrast to most integrated assessment models, with limited transparency on damage functions and recursive temporal dynamics, we use a unique large-dimensional computational global climate and trade model, GTAP-DynW, to directly project the possible intertemporal impacts of water and heat stress on global food supply and food security to 2050. The GTAP-DynW model uses GTAP production and trade data for 141 countries and regions, with varying water and heat stress baselines, and results are aggregated into 30 countries/regions and 30 commodity sectors. Blue water stress projections are drawn from WRI source material and a GTAP-Water database to incorporate dynamic changes in water resources and their availability in agricultural production and international trade, thus providing a more general measure for severe food insecurity from water and heat stress damages with global warming. Findings are presented for three representative concentration pathways: RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP8.5-SPP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3 (population growth only for SSPs) and project: (a) substantial declines, as measured by GCal, in global food production of some 6%, 10%, and 14% to 2050 and (b) the number of additional people with severe food insecurity by 2050, correspondingly, increases by 556 million, 935 million, and 1.36 billion compared to the 2020 model baseline.

Tissue- and time-dependent metabolite profiles during early grain development under normal and high night-time temperature conditions

BACKGROUND

Wheat grain development in the first few days after pollination determines the number of endosperm cells that influence grain yield potential and is susceptible to various environmental conditions, including high night temperatures (HNTs). Flag leaves and seed-associated bracts (glumes, awn, palea, and lemma) provide nutrients to the developing seed. However, the specific metabolic roles of these tissues are uncertain, especially their dynamics at different developmental stages and the time in a day. Tissue- and time-dependent metabolite profiling may hint at the metabolic roles of tissues and the mechanisms of how HNTs affect daytime metabolic status in early grain development.

RESULTS

The metabolite profiles of flag leaf, bract, seed (embryo and endosperm), and entire spike were analyzed at 12:00 (day) and 23:00 (night) on 2, 4, and 6 days after fertilization under control and HNT conditions. The metabolite levels in flag leaves and bracts showed day/night oscillations, while their behaviors were distinct between the tissues. Some metabolites, such as sucrose, cellobiose, and succinic acid, showed contrasting oscillations in the two photosynthetic tissues. In contrast, seed metabolite levels differed due to the days after fertilization rather than the time in a day. The seed metabolite profile altered earlier in the HNT than in the control condition, likely associated with accelerated grain development caused by HNT. HNT also disrupted the day/night oscillation of sugar accumulation in flag leaves and bracts.

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight distinct metabolic roles of flag leaves and bracts during wheat early seed development. The seed metabolite levels are related to the developmental stages. The early metabolic events in the seeds and the disruption of the day/night metabolic cycle in photosynthetic tissues may partly explain the adverse effects of HNT on grain yield.

Global wheat planting suitability under the 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets

The potential distribution of crops will be impacted by climate change, but there is limited research on potential wheat distributions under specific global warming targets. This study employed the Maxent model to predict the potential distribution of wheat under the 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets based on data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) multimodel ensemble, and the effect of global warming on wheat planting suitability was analyzed. Our results indicated global warming would significantly change wheat planting suitability. Over half of the areas experienced changes in wheat planting suitability under two warming targets, and the effect became more pronounced with increasing temperatures. Additionally, global warming might promote wheat planting in more regions. The area with an increase in wheat planting suitability was observed to be 9% higher than those experiencing a decrease on average. Moreover, global warming could exacerbate the disparity between global wheat supply and demand in countries/regions. Traditional wheat-producing countries/regions are poised to benefit from the warming effects of climate change, while less developed and wheat import-dependent countries/regions may face greater challenges in achieving wheat self-sufficiency. To address this potential challenge, the promotion and inter-regional exchange of agronomic technologies, and the development of more rational trade standards are urgently needed. Since socioeconomic factors have a significant impact on wheat cultivation, further investigation is required to determine how the wheat planting distribution may change in the future under the combined impact of climate change, supply-demand relationship, and policy.

Genome-wide scanning to identify and validate single nucleotide polymorphism markers associated with drought tolerance in spring wheat seedlings

Unlike other growth stages of wheat, very few studies on drought tolerance have been done at the seedling stage, and this is due to the complexity and sensitivity of this stage to drought stress resulting from climate change. As a result, the drought tolerance of wheat seedlings is poorly understood and very few genes associated with drought tolerance at this stage were identified. To address this challenge, a set of 172 spring wheat genotypes representing 20 different countries was evaluated under drought stress at the seedling stage. Drought stress was applied on all tested genotypes by water withholding for 13 days. Two types of traits, namely morphological and physiological traits were scored on the leaves of all tested genotypes. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) is one of the effective genetic analysis methods that was used to identify target single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers and candidate genes for later use in marker-assisted selection. The tested plant materials were genotyped using 25k Infinium iSelect array (25K) (herein after it will be identified as 25K) (for 172 genotypes) and genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) (for 103 genotypes), respectively. The results of genotyping revealed 21,093 25K and 11,362 GBS-SNPs, which were used to perform GWAS analysis for all scored traits. The results of GWAS revealed that 131 and 55 significant SNPs were controlling morphological and physiological traits, respectively. Moreover, a total of eight and seven SNP markers were found to be associated with more than one morphological and physiological trait under drought stress, respectively. Remarkably, 10 significant SNPs found in this study were previously reported for their association with drought tolerance in wheat. Out of the 10 validated SNP markers, four SNPs were associated with drought at the seedling stage, while the remaining six SNPs were associated with drought stress at the reproductive stage. Moreover, the results of gene enrichment revealed 18 and six pathways as highly significant biological and molecular pathways, respectively. The selection based on drought-tolerant alleles revealed 15 genotypes with the highest number of different drought-tolerant alleles. These genotypes can be used as candidate parents in future breeding programs to produce highly drought-tolerant genotypes with high genetic diversity. Our findings in this study provide novel markers and useful information on the genetic basis of drought tolerance at early growth stages.

Analysis of the Effects of the Vrn-1 and Ppd-1 Alleles on Adaptive and Agronomic Traits in Common Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

Wheat heading time is primarily governed by two loci: VRN-1 (response to vernalization) and PPD-1 (response to photoperiod). Five sets of near-isogenic lines (NILs) were studied with the aim of investigating the effect of the aforementioned genes on wheat vegetative period duration and 14 yield-related traits. Every NIL was sown in the hydroponic greenhouse of the Institute of Cytology and Genetics, SB RAS. To assess their allelic composition at the VRN-1 and PPD-1 loci, molecular markers were used. It was shown that HT in plants with the Vrn-A1vrn-B1vrn-D1 genotype was reduced by 29 and 21 days (p < 0.001) in comparison to HT in plants with the vrn-A1Vrn-B1vrn-D1 and the vrn-A1vrn-B1Vrn-D1 genotypes, respectively. In our study, we noticed a decrease in spike length as well as spikelet number per spike parameter for some NIL carriers of the Vrn-A1a allele in comparison to carriers of the Vrn-B1 allele. PCA revealed three first principal components (PC), together explaining more than 70% of the data variance. Among the studied genetic traits, the Vrn-A1a and Ppd-D1a alleles showed significant correlations with PCs. Regarding genetic components, significant correlations were calculated between PC3 and Ppd-B1a (-0.26, p < 0.05) and Vrn-B1 (0.57, p < 0.05) alleles. Thus, the presence of the Vrn-A1a allele affects heading time, while Ppd-D1a is associated with plant height reduction.

Potential global distribution of Setaria italica, an important species for dryland agriculture in the context of climate change

Setaria italica (S. italica, Linnaeus, 1753) is a drought-resistant, barren-tolerant, and widely adapted C-4 crop that plays a vital role in maintaining agricultural and economic stability in arid and barren regions of the world. However, the potential habitat of S. italica under current and future climate scenarios remains to be explored. Predicting the potential global geographic distribution of S. italica and clarifying its ecological requirements can help promote sustainable agriculture, which is crucial for addressing the global food crisis. In this study, we predicted the potential global geographic distribution of S. italica based on 3,154 global distribution records using the Maxent model and ArcGIS software. We assessed the constraints on its potential distribution based on the contribution of environmental factors variables. The predictive accuracy of the Maxent model was evaluated using AUC values, TSS values, and Kappa statistics, respectively. The results showed that the Maxent model had a high prediction accuracy, and the simulation results were also reliable; the total suitable habitats of S. italica is 5.54×107 km2, which mainly included the United States (North America), Brazil (South America), Australia (Oceania), China, India (Asia), and the Russian Federation (Europe). The most suitable habitat of S. italica was 0.52×107 km2, accounting for 9.44% of the total areas, mainly in the United States, India, the Russian Federation, and China. Soil and precipitation (driest monthly precipitation, hottest seasonal precipitation) are the most critical factors limiting the potential distribution of S. italica. Compared with the modern potential distribution, we predict that the four future climate change scenarios will result in varying reductions in the possible geographic ranges of S. italica. Overall, climate change may significantly affect the global distribution of S. italica, altering its worldwide production and trade patterns.

Genome-wide expression analysis of novel heat-responsive microRNAs and their targets in contrasting wheat genotypes at reproductive stage under terminal heat stress

Introduction

Heat stress at terminal stage of wheat is critical and leads to huge yield losses worldwide. microRNAs (miRNAs) play significant regulatory roles in gene expression associated with abiotic and biotic stress at the post-transcriptional level.

Methods

In the present study, we carried out a comparative analysis of miRNAs and their targets in flag leaves as well as developing seeds of heat tolerant (RAJ3765) and heat susceptible (HUW510) wheat genotypes under heat stress and normal conditions using small RNA and degradome sequencing.

Results and discussion

A total of 84 conserved miRNAs belonging to 35 miRNA families and 93 novel miRNAs were identified in the 8 libraries. Tae-miR9672a-3p, tae-miR9774, tae-miR9669-5p, and tae-miR5048-5p showed the highest expression under heat stress. Tae-miR9775, tae-miR9662b-3p, tae-miR1120a, tae-miR5084, tae-miR1122a, tae-miR5085, tae-miR1118, tae-miR1130a, tae-miR9678-3p, tae-miR7757-5p, tae-miR9668-5p, tae-miR5050, tae-miR9652-5p, and tae-miR9679-5p were expressed only in the tolerant genotype, indicating their role in heat tolerance. Comparison between heat-treated and control groups revealed that 146 known and 57 novel miRNAs were differentially expressed in the various tissues. Eight degradome libraries sequence identified 457 targets of the differentially expressed miRNAs. Functional analysis of the targets indicated their involvement in photosynthesis, spliceosome, biosynthesis of nucleotide sugars and protein processing in the endoplasmic reticulum, arginine and proline metabolism and endocytosis.

Conclusion

This study increases the number of identified and novel miRNAs along with their roles involved in heat stress response in contrasting genotypes at two developing stages of wheat.

Simulating the effects of optimizing sowing date and variety shift on maize production at finer scale in northeast China under future climate

BACKGROUND

Global warming and the rising occurrences of climate extremes have become formidable challenges for maize production in northeast China. The optimization of sowing date and variety choice stand out as two economic approaches for maize to enhance its resilience to climate change. Nevertheless, assessment of the potential of optimizing sowing date and variety shift on maize yield at finer scale remains underexamined. This study investigated the implications of optimizing sowing date and implementing variety shift on maize yield from a regional perspective.

RESULTS

Compared to the reference period (1986-2005), climate change would decrease by 11.5-34.6% (the range describes the differences among climate scenarios and agro-ecological regions) maize yield in the 2050s (2040-2059) if no adaption measure were to be implemented. The combined adaption (optimizing sowing date and variety shift) can improve maize yield by 38.8 ± 11.3%, 42.7 ± 9.7% and 33.9 ± 7.6% under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The current sowing window typically falls within the projected optimal sowing window, defined as the period capable of achieving 90% of the maximum yield within the potential sowing window under future climate conditions. Consequently, the potential of the effect of optimizing sowing window on maize yield is limited. In contrast, variety shift results in higher yield improvement, as temperature rise creates favorable conditions for transplanting varieties with an extended growth period, particularly in high latitudes and mountainous regions. Under future climate, cumulative precipitation and compound drought and hot days during maize growing seasons are two key factors influencing maize production.

CONCLUSIONS

The optimization of sowing date and variety choice can improve maize yield in northeast China. In addition, maize production should consider varieties with longer growth period and drought and heat tolerance to adapt to climate change. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Is CRISPR/Cas9-based multi-trait enhancement of wheat forthcoming?

Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR) technologies have been implemented in recent years in the genome editing of eukaryotes, including plants. The original system of knocking out a single gene by causing a double-strand break (DSB), followed by non-homologous end joining (NHEJ) or Homology-directed repair (HDR) has undergone many adaptations. These adaptations include employing CRISPR/Cas9 to upregulate gene expression or to cause specific small changes to the DNA sequence of the gene-of-interest. In plants, multiplexing, i.e., inducing multiple changes by CRISPR/Cas9, is extremely relevant due to the redundancy of many plant genes, and the time- and labor-consuming generation of stable transgenic plant lines via crossing. Here we discuss relevant examples of various traits, such as yield, biofortification, gluten content, abiotic stress tolerance, and biotic stress resistance, which have been successfully manipulated using CRISPR/Cas9 in plants. While existing studies have primarily focused on proving the impact of CRISPR/Cas9 on a single trait, there is a growing interest among researchers in creating a multi-stress tolerant wheat cultivar 'super wheat', to commercially and sustainably enhance wheat yields under climate change. Due to the complexity of the technical difficulties in generating multi-target CRISPR/Cas9 lines and of the interactions between stress responses, we propose enhancing already commercial local landraces with higher yield traits along with stress tolerances specific to the respective localities, instead of generating a general 'super wheat'. We hope this will serve as the sustainable solution to commercially enhancing crop yields under both stable and challenging environmental conditions.

Climate change enhances stability of wheat-flowering-date

The stability of winter wheat-flowering-date is crucial for ensuring consistent and robust crop performance across diverse climatic conditions. However, the impact of climate change on wheat-flowering-dates remains uncertain. This study aims to elucidate the influence of climate change on wheat-flowering-dates, predict how projected future climate conditions will affect flowering date stability, and identify the most stable wheat genotypes in the study region. We applied a multi-locus genotype-based (MLG-based) model for simulating wheat-flowering-dates, which we calibrated and evaluated using observed data from the Northern China winter wheat region (NCWWR). This MLG-based model was employed to project flowering dates under different climate scenarios. The simulated flowering dates were then used to assess the stability of flowering dates under varying allelic combinations in projected climatic conditions. Our MLG-based model effectively simulated flowering dates, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.3 days, explaining approximately 88.5 % of the genotypic variation in flowering dates among 100 wheat genotypes. We found that, in comparison to the baseline climate, wheat-flowering-dates are expected to shift earlier within the target sowing window by approximately 11 and 14 days by 2050 under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, our analysis revealed that wheat-flowering-date stability is likely to be further strengthened under projected climate scenarios due to early flowering trends. Ultimately, we demonstrate that the combination of Vrn and Ppd genes, rather than individual Vrn or Ppd genes, plays a critical role in wheat-flowering-date stability. Our results suggest that the combination of Ppd-D1a with winter genotypes carrying the vrn-D1 allele significantly contributes to flowering date stability under current and projected climate scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights for wheat breeders and producers under future climatic conditions.

Natural variation of STKc_GSK3 kinase TaSG-D1 contributes to heat stress tolerance in Indian dwarf wheat

Heat stress threatens global wheat (Triticum aestivum) production, causing dramatic yield losses worldwide. Identifying heat tolerance genes and comprehending molecular mechanisms are essential. Here, we identify a heat tolerance gene, TaSG-D1E286K, in Indian dwarf wheat (Triticum sphaerococcum), which encodes an STKc_GSK3 kinase. TaSG-D1E286K improves heat tolerance compared to TaSG-D1 by enhancing phosphorylation and stability of downstream target TaPIF4 under heat stress condition. Additionally, we reveal evolutionary footprints of TaPIF4 during wheat selective breeding in China, that is, InDels predominantly occur in the TaPIF4 promoter of Chinese modern wheat cultivars and result in decreased expression level of TaPIF4 in response to heat stress. These sequence variations with negative effect on heat tolerance are mainly introduced from European germplasm. Our study provides insight into heat stress response mechanisms and proposes a potential strategy to improve wheat heat tolerance in future.

Biomolecular evidence for changing millet reliance in Late Bronze Age central Germany

The Bronze Age of Central Europe was a period of major social, economic, political and ideological change. The arrival of millet is often seen as part of wider Bronze Age connectivity, yet understanding of the subsistence regimes underpinning this dynamic period remains poor for this region, in large part due to a dominance of cremation funerary rites, which hinder biomolecular studies. Here, we apply stable isotope analysis, radiocarbon dating and archaeobotanical analysis to two Late Bronze Age (LBA) sites, Esperstedt and Kuckenburg, in central Germany, where human remains were inhumed rather than cremated. We find that people buried at these sites did not consume millet before the Middle Bronze Age (MBA) (ca. 1600 BCE). However, by the early LBA (ca. 1300-1050 BCE) people consumed millet, often in substantial quantities. This consumption appears to have subsequently diminished or ceased around 1050-800 BCE, despite charred millet grains still being found in the archaeological deposits from this period. The arrival of millet in this region, followed by a surge in consumption spanning two centuries, indicates a complex interplay of cultural and economic factors, as well as a potential use of millet to buffer changes in aridity in a region increasingly prone to crop failure in the face of climate change today.

Projecting global fertilizer consumption under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios using an approach of ensemble machine learning

Comprehensively projecting global fertilizer consumption is essential for providing critical datasets in related fields such as earth system simulation, the fertilizer industry, and agricultural sciences. However, since previous studies have not fully considered the socioeconomic factors affecting fertilizer consumption, huge uncertainties may remain in fertilizer consumption projections. Here, an approach ensembled six machine learning algorithms was proposed in this study to predict global fertilizer consumption from 2020 to 2100 by considering the impact of socioeconomic factors under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. It indicates that the proposed approach provides a rational and reliable framework for fertilizer consumption prediction that stably outperforms the single algorithms with relatively high accuracy (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.93, Kling-Gupta efficiency of 0.89, and mean absolute percentage error of 10.97 %). We found that global N and P fertilizer consumption may decrease from 2020 to 2100, while K fertilizer may buck the trend. N fertilizer consumption showed a declining trend of -1 %, -17.13 %, and -3.43 % under the SSP1, SSP2, and SSP3 scenarios in 2100, respectively. For P fertilizer, those were -0.68 %, -9.68 %, and -2.03 %. In contrast, global K fertilizer consumption may increase by 18.03 %, 9.18 %, and 6.74 %, respectively. On average, N, P, and K fertilizer consumption is highest in China, and the lowest is in Kazakhstan. However, the hotspots of N fertilizer consumption may shift from China to Latin America and the Caribbean. This study highlighted the ensemble machine learning approach could potentially be a robust method for predicting future fertilizer consumption. Our prediction product will not only contribute to a better understanding of global fertilizer consumption trends and dynamics but also provide flexible and accurate key data/parameters for related research. The Projected Global Fertilizers Consumption Datasets are available at doi:https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8195593 (Gao et al., 2023).

The influence of climatic and environmental variables on sunflower planting season suitability in Tanzania

Crop survival and growth requires identification of correlations between appropriate suitable planting season and relevant climatic and environmental characteristics. Climatic and environmental conditions may cause water and heat stress at critical stages of crop development and thus affecting planting suitability. Consequently, this may affect crop yield and productivity. This study assesses the influence of climate and environmental variables on rain-fed sunflower planting season suitability in Tanzania. Data on rainfall, temperature, slope, elevation, soil and land use/or cover were accessed from publicly available sources using Google Earth Engine. This is a cloud-based geospatial computing platform for remote sensed datasets. Tanzania sunflower production calendar of 2022 was adopted to mark the start and end limits of planting across the country. The default climate and environmental parameters from FAO database were used. In addition, Pearson correlation was used to evaluate the relationship between rainfall, temperature over Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 2000 to 2020 at five-year interval for January-April and June-September, for high and poor suitability season. The results showed that planting suitability of sunflower in Tanzania is driven more by rainfall than temperature. It was revealed that intra-annual planting suitability increases gradually from short to long- rain season and diminishes towards dry season of the year. January-April planting season window showing highest suitability (41.65%), whereas June-September indicating lowest suitability (0.05%). Though, not statistically significant, rainfall and NDVI were positively correlated with r = 0.65 and 0.75 whereas negative correlation existed between temperature and NDVI with r = -- 0.6 and - 0.77. We recommend sunflower subsector interventions that consider appropriate intra-regional and seasonal diversity as an important adaptive mechanism to ensure high sunflower yields.

Insight into carbohydrate metabolism, protein quantification and mineral regulation in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) by the action of green synthesized silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) against heat stress

In the present investigation, the role of GS-AgNPs treatment in wheat plants was carried out in reducing heat stress with the aim of facilitating scientists on this topic. The effect of GS-AgNPs against heat stress has rarely been deliberated in wheat plants, and only a few studies have been established earlier in this scenario. This work illustrated the effect of GS-AgNPs on the regulation of carbohydrates metabolism, SOD, proteins, crude fibers, and minerals changes in wheat plants. Data were analysed using PCA analysis, correlation parameters, and normal probability distribution in PAST 3 software. The results indicated that heat stress alone caused severe changes in carbohydrates metabolism, SOD, proteins, crude fibers, and minerals immediately so that plants could not recover without foreign stabilizers such as GS-AgNPs. The application of GS-AgNPs increases the flux of carbohydrates metabolism, SOD, and proteins, including HSPs, crude fibers, and minerals, in wheat plants to reduce the effect of heat stress. The 50 mg/l concentration of GS-AgNPs has shown an increase in carbohydrates metabolism and SOD activity, while crude fibres have shown a significant enhancement at 100 mg/l of GS-AgNPs. The crude and true proteins were also shown pronounced increase in treatment to a concentration of 50 mg/l of GS-AgNPs. GS-AgNPs stimulated HSP production; most importantly, smHSP production was observed in the present results with other HSPs in wheat plants treated with a 50 mg/l concentration of GS-AgNPs. The mineral distribution was also regulated by the respective treatment of GS-AgNPs, and the highest amounts of Ca, P and Fe were found to be highest in wheat under heat stress. In general, we computed the expected model based on GS-AgNPs on the genes/factors that respond to heat stress and their potential role in mitigating heat stress in wheat. In addition, we discussed the prospective signalling pathway triggered by GS-AgNPs in wheat against heat stress. In the future, this work might be helpful in distinguishing the genetic variation due to GS-AgNPs in promoting tolerance in wheat against heat stress.

Identifying long non-coding RNAs involved in heat stress response during wheat pollen development

Introduction

Wheat is a staple food crop for over one-third of the global population. However, the stability of wheat productivity is threatened by heat waves associated with climate change. Heat stress at the reproductive stage can result in pollen sterility and failure of grain development.

Methods

This study used transcriptome data analysis to explore the specific expression of long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) in response to heat stress during pollen development in four wheat cultivars.

Results and discussion

We identified 11,054 lncRNA-producing loci, of which 5,482 lncRNAs showed differential expression in response to heat stress. Heat-responsive lncRNAs could target protein-coding genes in cis and trans and in lncRNA-miRNA-mRNA regulatory networks. Gene ontology analysis predicted that target protein-coding genes of lncRNAs regulate various biological processes such as hormonal responses, protein modification and folding, response to stress, and biosynthetic and metabolic processes. We also noted some paired lncRNA/protein-coding gene modules and some lncRNA-miRNA-mRNA regulatory modules shared in two or more wheat cultivars. These modules were related to regulating plant responses to heat stress, such as heat-shock proteins and transcription factors, and protein domains, such as MADS-box, Myc-type, and Alpha crystallin/Hsp20 domain.

Conclusion

Our results provide the basic knowledge and molecular resources for future functional studies investigating wheat reproductive development under heat stress.

Differential effects of elevated CO2 on awn and glume metabolism in durum wheat (Triticum durum)

While the effect of CO2 enrichment on wheat (Triticum spp.) photosynthesis, nitrogen content or yield has been well-studied, the impact of elevated CO2 on metabolic pathways in organs other than leaves is poorly documented. In particular, glumes and awns, which may refix CO2 respired by developing grains and be naturally exposed to higher-than-ambient CO2 mole fraction, could show specific responses to elevated CO2 . Here, we took advantage of a free-air CO2 enrichment experiment and performed multilevel analyses, including metabolomics, ionomics, proteomics, major hormones and isotopes in Triticum durum . While in leaves, elevated CO2 tended to accelerate amino acid metabolism with many significantly affected metabolites, the effect on glumes and awns metabolites was modest. There was a lower content in compounds of the polyamine pathway (along with uracile and allantoin) under elevated CO2 , suggesting a change in secondary N metabolism. Also, cytokinin metabolism appeared to be significantly affected under elevated CO2 . Despite this, elevated CO2 did not affect the final composition of awn and glume organic matter, with the same content in carbon, nitrogen and other elements. We conclude that elevated CO2 mostly impacts on leaf metabolism but has little effect in awns and glumes, including their composition at maturity.

A framework for modeling an agronomic system's vulnerability to climate change with reflections from the Caspian coastal agro-ecological zone of Iran

Assessing the vulnerability of different sectors to climate change has great importance in determining the appropriate adaptation measures to deal with climate change impacts on a river basin scale. In this research, using a framework for modeling the agronomic system vulnerability to climate change, vulnerability assessment under different scenarios was conducted for the Gorganrud River Basin located in the agro-ecological zone of the Caspian coastal plain of Iran. Considering exposure, susceptibility, and lack of resilience components, 12 indicators were chosen and quantified for both agronomic-environmental and socio-economic aspects. The SSM-iCrop2 model was used to simulate crop yield under current and climate change scenarios across the basin. The analysis indicates that in the current condition, the vulnerability level is different across the watersheds of the Gorganrud River Basin. By applying the climate change scenarios, agronomic system vulnerability would increase in the basin to some extent, particularly in Madarsu and Tilabad watersheds attributed with high vulnerability (0.63 and 0.61, respectively). This justifies the need to implement adaptation plans for encountering water shortage in the future. The analysis also suggests that the vulnerability of the agronomic system for adaptation scenarios characterized by less water consumption under climate change conditions is going to be slightly different from the vulnerability under the climate change scenarios. Due to an increase in agronomic system vulnerability under climate change scenarios, coupled with the fact that most watersheds (except Chehelchai, Nardin, and Narmab) are moderately vulnerable even under current conditions, policymakers and planners should promote crop and livelihood diversification programs aiming to prevent an increase in agronomic vulnerability.

Exploring the genotype-environment interaction of bread wheat in ambient and high-temperature planting conditions: a rigorous investigation

The current study is carried out to find out the stable wheat genotype in ambient and high temperature planting conditions. The objective was to estimate the genotype x environment interactions through various univariates and multivariate techniques. Twenty wheat genotypes were evaluated at Jabalpur, Narmadapuram, and Sagar districts of Madhya Pradesh, India, across cropping years 2019-20 and 2021-21, considering both timely and late planting conditions. The univariate and multivariate stability analysis were performed based on per-plant grain yield and grain filling rate. Our result revealed that environment, genotype, and GEI effects were significant (P < 0.001) across all the environments. The wheat genotypes JW3288, L8, and L13 have been discerned as top performers, exhibiting remarkable stability in grain yield per plant. Similarly, for grain filling rate, genotypes L11 and L13 have emerged as superior and consistently stable performers. Notably, the AMMI and GGE models demonstrated superior effectiveness and accuracy compared to the linear regression model. In conclusion, based on thorough univariate and multivariate stability analyses, L13 emerges as the most stable genotype across all environments under both planting conditions. Consequently, L13 holds promise for inclusion in future breeding programs. It's noteworthy that Jabalpur stands out as the most discriminating and representative environment among all the conditions assessed.

QTL mapping: insights into genomic regions governing component traits of yield under combined heat and drought stress in wheat

Drought and heat frequently co-occur during crop growth leading to devastating yield loss. The knowledge of the genetic loci governing component traits of yield under combined drought and heat stress is essential for enhancing the climate resilience. The present study employed a mapping population of 180 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) derived from a cross between GW322 and KAUZ to identify quantitative trait loci (QTLs) governing the component traits of yield under heat and combined stress conditions. Phenotypic evaluation was conducted across two consecutive crop seasons (2021-2022 and 2022-2023) under late sown irrigation (LSIR) and late sown restricted irrigation (LSRI) conditions at the Indian Council of Agricultural Research Institute-Indian Agricultural Research Institute (ICAR-IARI), New Delhi. Various physiological and agronomic traits of importance were measured. Genotyping was carried out with 35K SNP Axiom breeder's genotyping array. The linkage map spanned a length of 6769.45 cM, ranging from 2.28 cM/marker in 1A to 14.21 cM/marker in 5D. A total of 35 QTLs were identified across 14 chromosomes with 6B containing the highest (seven) number of QTLs. Out of 35 QTLs, 16 were major QTLs explaining the phenotypic variance greater than 10%. The study identified eight stable QTLs along with two hotspots on chromosomes 6B and 5B. Five QTLs associated with traits thousand-grain weight (TGW), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and plant height (PH) were successfully validated. Candidate genes encoding antioxidant enzymes, transcription factors, and growth-related proteins were identified in the QTL regions. In silico expression analysis highlighted higher expression of transcripts TraesCS2D02G021000.1, TraesCS2D02G031000, TraesCS6A02G247900, and TraesCS6B02G421700 under stress conditions. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the genetic architecture underlying combined heat and drought tolerance in wheat, providing valuable insights for wheat improvement strategies under changing climatic conditions.

Plants and global warming: challenges and strategies for a warming world

KEY MESSAGE

In this review, we made an attempt to create a holistic picture of plant response to a rising temperature environment and its impact by covering all aspects from temperature perception to thermotolerance. This comprehensive account describing the molecular mechanisms orchestrating these responses and potential mitigation strategies will be helpful for understanding the impact of global warming on plant life. Organisms need to constantly recalibrate development and physiology in response to changes in their environment. Climate change-associated global warming is amplifying the intensity and periodicity of these changes. Being sessile, plants are particularly vulnerable to variations happening around them. These changes can cause structural, metabolomic, and physiological perturbations, leading to alterations in the growth program and in extreme cases, plant death. In general, plants have a remarkable ability to respond to these challenges, supported by an elaborate mechanism to sense and respond to external changes. Once perceived, plants integrate these signals into the growth program so that their development and physiology can be modulated befittingly. This multifaceted signaling network, which helps plants to establish acclimation and survival responses enabled their extensive geographical distribution. Temperature is one of the key environmental variables that affect all aspects of plant life. Over the years, our knowledge of how plants perceive temperature and how they respond to heat stress has improved significantly. However, a comprehensive mechanistic understanding of the process still largely elusive. This review explores how an increase in the global surface temperature detrimentally affects plant survival and productivity and discusses current understanding of plant responses to high temperature (HT) and underlying mechanisms. We also highlighted potential resilience attributes that can be utilized to mitigate the impact of global warming.

Meiotic instability and irregular chromosome pairing underpin heat-induced infertility in bread wheat carrying the Rht-B1b or Rht-D1b Green Revolution genes

Mutations in the Rht-B1a and Rht-D1a genes of wheat (Triticum aestivum; resulting in Rht-B1b and Rht-D1b alleles) cause gibberellin-insensitive dwarfism and are one of the most important elements of increased yield introduced during the 'Green Revolution'. We measured the effects of a short period of heat imposed during the early reproductive stage on near-isogenic lines carrying Rht-B1b or Rht-D1b alleles, with respect to the wild-type (WT). The temperature shift caused a significant fertility loss within the ears of Rht-B1b and Rht-D1b wheats, greater than that observed for the WT. Defects in chromosome synapsis, reduced homologous recombination and a high frequency of chromosome mis-segregation were associated with reduced fertility. The transcription of TaGA3ox gene involved in the final stage of gibberellic acid (GA) biosynthesis was activated and ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry identified GA1 as the dominant bioactive GA in developing ears, but levels were unaffected by the elevated temperature. Rht-B1b and Rht-D1b mutants were inclined to meiotic errors under optimal temperatures and showed a higher susceptibility to heat than their tall counterparts. Identification and introduction of new dwarfing alleles into modern breeding programmes is invaluable in the development of climate-resilient wheat varieties.

Heat and Wheat: Adaptation strategies with respect to heat shock proteins and antioxidant potential; an era of climate change

Extreme changes in weather including heat-wave and high-temperature fluctuations are predicted to increase in intensity and duration due to climate change. Wheat being a major staple crop is under severe threat of heat stress especially during the grain-filling stage. Widespread food insecurity underscores the critical need to comprehend crop responses to forthcoming climatic shifts, pivotal for devising adaptive strategies ensuring sustainable crop productivity. This review addresses insights concerning antioxidant, physiological, molecular impacts, tolerance mechanisms, and nanotechnology-based strategies and how wheat copes with heat stress at the reproductive stage. In this study stress resilience strategies were documented for sustainable grain production under heat stress at reproductive stage. Additionally, the mechanisms of heat resilience including gene expression, nanomaterials that trigger transcription factors, (HSPs) during stress, and physiological and antioxidant traits were explored. The most reliable method to improve plant resilience to heat stress must include nano-biotechnology-based strategies, such as the adoption of nano-fertilizers in climate-smart practices and the use of advanced molecular approaches. Notably, the novel resistance genes through advanced molecular approach and nanomaterials exhibit promise for incorporation into wheat cultivars, conferring resilience against imminent adverse environmental conditions. This review will help scientific communities in thermo-tolerance wheat cultivars and new emerging strategies to mitigate the deleterious impact of heat stress.

Climatic variability and its impact on the indigenous agricultural system using panel data analysis in the Sikkim Himalaya, India

Climate-induced extreme events with fluctuations in climatic indicators like temperature and precipitation highly influence crop productivity. This study deals with quantitative analysis of climatic variability and crop production (1990-2018) using panel data regression analysis. The focus is on variability of three crops, i.e., paddy, maize, and wheat in the Rangit river basin of Sikkim Himalaya, India. Meterological data were acquired from the Indian Meteorological Department, agricultural data from the state agricultural department and a field survey were also conducted with the farmers, using a structured questionnaire, focused group discussion, and key informant observations. The acquired data was analyzed with the help of correlation and multiple linear regression analysis to analyze the relationship between climatic variability and crop production. The result of the study shows that all three crops are dependent on rainfall; however, paddy was the most sensitive to climatic variability. It was found that the overall grain production had an inverse relation to temperature, but it had a positive correlation with rainfall. It was observed that there was a continuous decline in the overall production of paddy and wheat. During deficiency years, it was found that when - 11.33% rainfall was deficient, paddy yield declined by - 1.52%. Further, a deviation of - 13.48% led to a decline of - 54.78% in wheat. The study advocates that timely policy interventions and strategies shall reduce climatic shocks and improve productivity. This would strengthen the livelihood security of the local communities, overcome the challenges of food security, and ensure long-term sustainability of Rangit River basin.

Building soil to reduce climate change impacts on global crop yield

Improving soil health and resilience is fundamental for sustainable food production, however the role of soil in maintaining or improving global crop productivity under climate warming is not well identified and quantified. Here, we examined the impact of soil on yield response to climate warming for four major crops (i.e., maize, wheat, rice and soybean), using global-scale datasets and random forest method. We found that each °C of warming reduced global yields of maize by 3.4%, wheat by 2.4%, rice by 0.3% and soybean by 5.0%, which were spatially heterogeneous with possible positive impacts. The random forest modeling analyses further showed that soil organic carbon (SOC), as an indicator of soil quality, dominantly explained the spatial heterogeneity of yield responses to warming and would regulate the negative warming responses. Improving SOC under the medium SOC sequestration scenario would reduce the warming-induced yield loss of maize, wheat, rice and soybean to 0.1% °C-1, 2.7% °C-1, 3.4% °C-1 and - 0.6% °C-1, respectively, avoiding an average of 3%-5% °C-1 of global yield loss. These yield benefits would occur on 53.2%, 67.8%, 51.8% and 71.6% of maize, wheat, rice and soybean planting areas, respectively, with particularly pronounced benefits in the regions with negative warming responses. With improved soil carbon, food systems are predicted to provide additional 20 to over 130 million tonnes of food that would otherwise lose due to future warming. Our findings highlight the critical role of soil in alleviating negative warming impacts on food security, especially for developing regions, given that sustainable actions on soil improvement could be taken broadly.

Jasmonate: A Hormone of Primary Importance for Temperature Stress Response in Plants

Temperature is a critical environmental factor that plays a vital role in plant growth and development. Temperatures below or above the optimum ranges lead to cold or heat stress, respectively. Temperature stress retards plant growth and development, and it reduces crop yields. Jasmonates (JAs) are a class of oxylipin phytohormones that play various roles in growth, development, and stress response. In recent years, studies have demonstrated that cold and heat stress affect JA biosynthesis and signaling, and JA plays an important role in the response to temperature stress. Recent studies have provided a large body of information elucidating the mechanisms underlying JA-mediated temperature stress response. In the present review, we present recent advances in understanding the role of JA in the response to cold and heat stress, and how JA interacts with other phytohormones during this process.

Enhancing climate change resilience in agricultural crops

Climate change threatens global food and nutritional security through negative effects on crop growth and agricultural productivity. Many countries have adopted ambitious climate change mitigation and adaptation targets that will exacerbate the problem, as they require significant changes in current agri-food systems. In this review, we provide a roadmap for improved crop production that encompasses the effective transfer of current knowledge into plant breeding and crop management strategies that will underpin sustainable agriculture intensification and climate resilience. We identify the main problem areas and highlight outstanding questions and potential solutions that can be applied to mitigate the impacts of climate change on crop growth and productivity. Although translation of scientific advances into crop production lags far behind current scientific knowledge and technology, we consider that a holistic approach, combining disciplines in collaborative efforts, can drive better connections between research, policy, and the needs of society.

Future climate change impacts on wheat grain yield and protein in the North China Region

The threat of global climate change on wheat production may be underestimated by the limited capacity of many crop models to predict grain quality and protein composition. This study aimed to integrate a wheat quality module of protein components into the CROPSIM-CERES-Wheat model to investigate the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield and protein quality in the North China Region (NCR) using five Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 under three shared socioeconomic pathways. The CERES-Wheat model with a quality module was developed and calibrated and validated using data from several sites in the NCR. The results of the calibration and validation showed that the modified CERES-Wheat model can accurately predict grain yield, protein content and its components in field experiments. Compared with the baseline period (1981-2010), the annual mean temperature and annual cumulative precipitation increased in the NCR in the 2030's, 2050's and 2080's. The radiation was higher under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, and lower under the SSP370 scenario compared to the baseline period. The anthesis and maturity date occurred earlier under the three future scenarios. The average grain yield increased by 13.3-30.9 % under three future scenarios. However, the regional average grain protein content of winter wheat in the future decreased by 2.0 %- 3.5 %. The reduction in wheat grain protein at the regional was less pronounced under SSP370 than that under SSP126 and SSP585. The structural protein content of winter wheat decreased under future climate conditions compared with the baseline period, but the storage protein content showed the opposite tendency. The model provided a useful tool to study the effects of future climate on grain quality and protein composition. These findings are important for developing agricultural practices and strategies to mitigate the potential impacts of climate change on wheat production and wheat quality in the future.

Heat-dependent postpollination limitations on maize pollen tube growth and kernel sterility

Heat stress has a negative impact on pollen development in maize (Zea mays L.) but the postpollination events that determine kernel sterility are less well characterised. The impact of short-term (hours) heat exposure during postpollination was therefore assessed in silks and ovaries. The temperatures inside the kernels housed within the husks was significantly lower than the imposed heat stress. This protected the ovaries and possibly the later phase of pollen tube growth from the adverse effects of heat stress. Failure of maize kernel fertilization was observed within 6 h of heat stress exposure postpollination. This was accompanied by a significant restriction of early pollen tube growth rather than pollen germination. Limitations on early pollen tube growth were therefore a major factor contributing to heat stress-induced kernel sterility. Exposure to heat stress altered the sugar composition of silks, suggesting that hexose supply contributed to the limitations on pollen tube growth. Moreover, the activities of sucrose metabolising enzymes, the expression of sucrose degradation and trehalose biosynthesis genes were decreased following heat stress. Significant increases in reactive oxygen species, abscisic acid and auxin levels accompanied by altered expression of phytohormone-related genes may also be important in the heat-induced suppression of pollen tube growth.

Fungal and Toxin Contaminants in Cereal Grains and Flours: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Cereal grains serve as the cornerstone of global nutrition, providing a significant portion of humanity's caloric requirements. However, the presence of fungal genera, such Fusarium, Penicillium, Aspergillus, and Alternaria, known for their mycotoxin-producing abilities, presents a significant threat to human health due to the adverse effects of these toxins. The primary objective of this study was to identify the predominant fungal contaminants in cereal grains utilized in breadmaking, as well as in flour and bread. Moreover, a systematic review, including meta-analysis, was conducted on the occurrence and levels of mycotoxins in wheat flour from the years 2013 to 2023. The genera most frequently reported were Fusarium, followed by Penicillium, Aspergillus, and Alternaria. Among the published reports, the majority focused on the analysis of Deoxynivalenol (DON), which garnered twice as many reports compared to those focusing on Aflatoxins, Zearalenone, and Ochratoxin A. The concentration of these toxins, in most cases determined by HPLC-MS/MS or HPLC coupled with a fluorescence detector (FLD), was occasionally observed to exceed the maximum limits established by national and/or international authorities. The prevalence of mycotoxins in flour samples from the European Union (EU) and China, as well as in foods intended for infants, exhibited a significant reduction compared to other commercial flours assessed by a meta-analysis investigation.

The Triticeae CBF Gene Cluster-To Frost Resistance and Beyond

The pivotal role of CBF/DREB1 transcriptional factors in Triticeae crops involved in the abiotic stress response has been highlighted. The CBFs represent an important hub in the ICE-CBF-COR pathway, which is one of the most relevant mechanisms capable of activating the adaptive response to cold and drought in wheat, barley, and rye. Understanding the intricate mechanisms and regulation of the cluster of CBF genes harbored by the homoeologous chromosome group 5 entails significant potential for the genetic improvement of small grain cereals. Triticeae crops seem to share common mechanisms characterized, however, by some peculiar aspects of the response to stress, highlighting a combined landscape of single-nucleotide variants and copy number variation involving CBF members of subgroup IV. Moreover, while chromosome 5 ploidy appears to confer species-specific levels of resistance, an important involvement of the ICE factor might explain the greater tolerance of rye. By unraveling the genetic basis of abiotic stress tolerance, researchers can develop resilient varieties better equipped to withstand extreme environmental conditions. Hence, advancing our knowledge of CBFs and their interactions represents a promising avenue for improving crop resilience and food security.

Acclimation response and management strategies to combat heat stress in wheat for sustainable agriculture: A state-of-the-art review

Unpredicted variability in climate change on the planet is associated with frequent extreme high-temperature events impacting crop yield globally. Wheat is an economically and nutritionally important crop that fulfils global food requirements and each degree rise in temperature results in ∼6% of its yield reduction. Thus, understanding the impact of climate change, especially the terminal heat stress on global wheat production, becomes critically important for policymakers, crop breeders, researchers and scientists to ensure global food security. This review describes how wheat perceives heat stress and induces stress adaptation events by its morpho-physiological, phenological, molecular, and biochemical makeup. Temperature above a threshold level in crop vicinity leads to irreversible injuries, viz. destruction of cellular membranes and enzymes, generation of active oxygen species, redox imbalance, etc. To cope with these changes, wheat activates its heat tolerance mechanisms characterized by hoarding up soluble carbohydrates, signalling molecules, and heat tolerance gene expressions. Being vulnerable to heat stress, increasing wheat production without delay seeks strategies to mitigate the detrimental effects and provoke the methods for its sustainable development. Thus, to ensure the crop's resilience to stress and increasing food demand, this article circumscribes the integrated management approaches to enhance wheat's performance and adaptive capacity besides its alleviating risks of increasing temperature anticipated with climate change. Implementing these integrated strategies in the face of risks from rising temperatures will assist us in producing sustainable wheat with improved yield.

Sustainable transformation of agriculture requires landscape experiments

Transformation of agriculture to realise sustainable site-specific management requires comprehensive scientific support based on field experiments to capture the complex agroecological process, incite new policies and integrate them into farmers' decisions. However, current experimental approaches are limited in addressing the wide spectrum of sustainable agroecosystem and landscape characteristics and in supplying stakeholders with suitable solutions and measures. This review identifies major constraints in current field experimentation, such as a lack of consideration of multiple processes and scales and a limited ability to address interactions between them. It emphasizes the urgent need to establish a new category of landscape experimentation that empowers agricultural research on sustainable agricultural systems, aiming at elucidating interactions among various landscape structures and functions, encompassing both natural and anthropogenic features. It extensively discusses the key characteristics of landscape experiments and major opportunities to include them in the agricultural research agenda. In particular, simultaneously considering multiple factors, and thus processes at different scales and possible synergies or antagonisms among them would boost our understanding of heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. We also highlight that though various studies identified promising approaches with respect to experimental design and data analysis, further developments are still required to build a fully functional and integrated framework for landscape experimentation in agricultural settings.

Genetic diversity, transcript heterogeneity and allele mining of TaSKP1-6B-4 gene variants across diverse genotypes under terminal heat stress and genome wide characterization of TaSKP1 gene family from bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

SKP1 (S-phase kinase protein1) is an essential regulatory component of SCF (Skp1-cullin-F-box) E3 ubiquitin ligases involved in maintenance of cellular protein homeostasis through ubiquitin mediated proteasome system (UPS). UPS play a key role in stress response and grain yield. Earlier, we isolated TaSKP1-6B-4, highly induced in flag leaf tissues (Accession No. KJ830759.1) of developing wheat caryopses under heat stress. To further assess the functional role of SKP1, genetic variability analysis was carried out in a panel of 25 contrasting germplasm through extensive phenotyping and transcript profiling of TaSKP1-6B-4 during anthesis under ambient and terminal heat stress (THS) in field experiments for two consecutive years. The analysis of variance revealed significant variations for all the traits studied. Higher H2(%), GCV, PCV, GA and GA% mean observed in tiller number per plant (23.81, 17.65, 5.71, 28, 30.86%) and grain number per head (30.27, 82.79, 60.16, 105.00, 108.64%) under THS over ambient temperature. Higher fold induction of TaSKP1-6B-4 transcripts was recorded in 10 genotypes viz. HD2967 (9.9), IC145456 (6.18) in flag leaf; while C-306 (15.88), RAJ3765 (8.37) in ear head. Allele mining of SKP1-6B-4 showed genotypic sequence variations. Whole genome wide search of SKP1 gene family identified 95 SKP1 genes which were structurally characterized. Grain yield, leaf senescence and other agronomic-morpho-physiological parameters combined with transcript profiling, cvHD2967, was found to be the best positively responsive to THS which by pedigree was not heat tolerant. We report a novel 2 year comprehensive field based analysis on collective genetic variability and SKP1/UPS modulation under a natural environmental setting. The data reveals potential functional role of UPS under THS and tolerant cultivars can be further utilized for clarifying the role of UPS mechanistically at the molecular level and for developing terminal heat stress tolerant wheat.

Transgenic strategies to improve the thermotolerance of photosynthesis

Warming driven by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is irreversible over at least the next century, unless practical technologies are rapidly developed and deployed at scale to remove and sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Accepting this reality highlights the central importance for crop agriculture to develop adaptation strategies for a warmer future. While nearly all processes in plants are impacted by above optimum temperatures, the impact of heat stress on photosynthetic processes stand out for their centrality. Here, we review transgenic strategies that show promise in improving the high-temperature tolerance of specific subprocesses of photosynthesis and in some cases have already been shown in proof of concept in field experiments to protect yield from high temperature-induced losses. We also highlight other manipulations to photosynthetic processes for which full proof of concept is still lacking but we contend warrant further attention. Warming that has already occurred over the past several decades has had detrimental impacts on crop production in many parts of the world. Declining productivity presages a rapidly developing global crisis in food security particularly in low income countries. Transgenic manipulation of photosynthesis to engineer greater high-temperature resilience holds encouraging promise to help meet this challenge.