Review and synthesis of the effects of climate change on amphibians

Habitat patches for newts in the face of climate change: local scale assessment combining niche modelling and graph theory

Triturus cristatus and Triturus marmoratus are two protected and declining newts occurring in the administrative department of Vienne, in France. They have limited dispersal abilities and rely on the connectivity between habitats and their suitability. In a warming climate, the locations of suitable habitats are expected to change, as is the connectivity. Here, we wondered how climate change might affect shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity of habitat patches, as connectivity is a key element enabling species to realize a potential range shift. We used ecological niche modelling (ENM), combining large-scale climate suitability with local scale, high-resolution habitat features, to identify suitable areas for the two species, under low and high warming scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). We associated it with connectivity assessment through graph theory. The variable 'small ponds' contributed most to land cover-only ENMs for both species. Projections with climate change scenarios revealed a potential impact of warming on suitable habitat patches for newts, especially for T. cristatus. We observed a decrease in connectivity following a decrease in patch suitability. Our results highlight the important areas for newt habitat connectivity within the study area, and define those potentially threatened by climate warming. We provide information for prioritizing sites for acquisition, protection or restoration, and to advise landscape policies. Our framework is a useful and easily reproducible way to combine global climate requirements of the species with detailed information on species habitats and occurrence when available.

Shifts in temperature influence how Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infects amphibian larvae

Many climate change models predict increases in frequency and magnitude of temperature fluctuations that might impact how ectotherms are affected by disease. Shifts in temperature might especially affect amphibians, a group with populations that have been challenged by several pathogens. Because amphibian hosts invest more in immunity at warmer than cooler temperatures and parasites might acclimate to temperature shifts faster than hosts (creating lags in optimal host immunity), researchers have hypothesized that a temperature shift from cold-to-warm might result in increased amphibian sensitivity to pathogens, whereas a shift from warm-to-cold might result in decreased sensitivity. Support for components of this climate-variability based hypothesis have been provided by prior studies of the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) that causes the disease chytridiomycosis in amphibians. We experimentally tested whether temperature shifts before exposure to Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) alters susceptibility to the disease chytridiomycosis in the larval stage of two amphibian species–western toads (Anaxyrus boreas) and northern red legged frogs (Rana aurora). Both host species harbored elevated Bd infection intensities under constant cold (15° C) temperature in comparison to constant warm (20° C) temperature. Additionally, both species experienced an increase in Bd infection abundance after shifted from 15° C to 20° C, compared to a constant 20° C but they experienced a decrease in Bd after shifted from 20° C to 15° C, compared to a constant 15° C. These results are in contrast to prior studies of adult amphibians highlighting the potential for species and stage differences in the temperature-dependence of chytridiomycosis.

Early onset of breeding season in the green toad Bufotes viridis in Western Poland

Amphibians are highly sensitive to environmental changes such as climate warming. Here, we report unusually early oviposition in two spatially isolated urban subpopulations of the green toad Bufotesviridis Laurenti, 1768, in Poznań, Western Poland. To our knowledge, we report the earliest breeding date for Central and Eastern Europe, for areas of similar latitude. We ascribe the early onset of B.viridis reproduction to an exceptionally warm spring in Western Poland in 2017. B.viridis shows flexibility in the timing of reproductive activity, however, shifts in breeding phenology may have both beneficial and detrimental population consequences.

Disease and the Drying Pond: Examining Possible Links among Drought, Immune Function, and Disease Development in Amphibians

Drought can heavily impact aquatic ecosystems. For amphibian species that rely on water availability for larval development, drought can have direct and indirect effects on larval survival and postmetamorphic fitness. Some amphibian species can accelerate the timing of metamorphosis to escape drying habitats through developmental plasticity. However, trade-offs associated with premature metamorphosis, such as reduced body size and altered immune function in the recently metamorphosed individual, may have downstream effects on susceptibility to disease. Here, we review the physiological mechanisms driving patterns in larval amphibian development under low water conditions. Specifically, we discuss drought-induced accelerated metamorphosis and how it may alter immune function, predisposing juvenile amphibians to infectious disease. In addition, we consider how these physiological and immunological adjustments could play out in a lethal disease system, amphibian chytridiomycosis. Last, we propose avenues for future research that adopt an ecoimmunological approach to evaluate the combined threats of drought and disease for amphibian populations.

Effects of forestry-driven changes to groundcover and soil moisture on amphibian desiccation, dispersal, and survival

Over 80% of amphibian species that are declining are forest dependent. Forestry practices are a major cause of forest alterations globally, and it is well documented that clearcutting can contribute to amphibian declines. However, there might be adverse effects of forestry practices other than clearcutting. For example, planting overstory trees in rows (plantations) can change groundcover microhabitats and soil moisture levels, but the effects of this common practice on amphibian populations are not well studied. We compared the impacts of common intensive pine plantation operations to naturally regenerated pine forests on the desiccation, movement rates, behavior, and survival of >900 juvenile southern toads (Anaxyrus terrestris). Pine plantations had significantly more accumulation of conifer needles and less exposed soil, herbaceous groundcover, broadleaf litter, and soil moisture than natural pine forests despite the greater canopy cover at plantations. Litter cover explained 85% of groundcover microhabitat variance among forest types and predicted minimum soil moisture levels. When toads were held in small outdoor enclosures that constrained microhabitat selection, 24-h desiccation rates and 72-h mortality were significantly greater in pine plantation than in naturally regenerated pine forest because of lower soil moisture, especially during low rainfall periods. In large outdoor pens where juvenile amphibians could select microhabitats, movement was strongly directed down slope and increased with precipitation. However, initial speeds were positively associated with pine density, likely because toads were trying to evacuate from the drier high-pine-density areas. High-intensity silviculture practices that eliminate herbaceous or vegetative groundcover, such as roller chopping and scalping, increase amphibian desiccation because planted conifers dry the upper soil layer. Our study highlights the importance of prioritizing lower intensity silviculture practices or lower pine densities to retain groundcover microhabitat that serves as amphibian refugia from dry conditions that are predicted to increase in frequency with climate change.

The effects of different cold-temperature regimes on development, growth, and susceptibility to an abiotic and biotic stressor

Global climate change is expected to both increase average temperatures as well as temperature variability.Increased average temperatures have led to earlier breeding in many spring-breeding organisms. However, individuals breeding earlier will also face increased temperature fluctuations, including exposure to potentially harmful cold-temperature regimes during early developmental stages.Using a model spring-breeding amphibian, we investigated how embryonic exposure to different cold-temperature regimes (control, cold-pulse, and cold-press) affected (a) compensatory larval development and growth, (b) larval susceptibility to a common contaminant, and (c) larval susceptibility to parasites.We found: (a) no evidence of compensatory development or growth, (b) larvae exposed to the cold-press treatment were more susceptible to NaCl at 4-days post-hatching but recovered by 17-days post-hatching, and (c) larvae exposed to both cold treatments were less susceptible to parasites.These results demonstrate that variation in cold-temperature regimes can lead to unique direct and indirect effects on larval growth, development, and response to stressors. This underscores the importance of considering cold-temperature variability and not just increased average temperatures when examining the impacts of climate disruption.

Ecophysiology of Amphibians: Information for Best Mechanistic Models

Several amphibian lineages epitomize the faunal biodiversity crises, with numerous reports of population declines and extinctions worldwide. Predicting how such lineages will cope with environmental changes is an urgent challenge for biologists. A promising framework for this involves mechanistic modeling, which integrates organismal ecophysiological features and ecological models as a means to establish causal and consequential relationships of species with their physical environment. Solid frameworks built for other tetrapods (e.g., lizards) have proved successful in this context, but its extension to amphibians requires care. First, the natural history of amphibians is distinct within tetrapods, for it includes a biphasic life cycle that undergoes major habitat transitions and changes in sensitivity to environmental factors. Second, the accumulated data on amphibian ecophysiology is not nearly as expressive, is heavily biased towards adult lifeforms of few non-tropical lineages, and overlook the importance of hydrothermal relationships. Thus, we argue that critical usage and improvement in the available data is essential for enhancing the power of mechanistic modeling from the physiological ecology of amphibians. We highlight the complexity of ecophysiological variables and the need for understanding the natural history of the group under study and indicate directions deemed crucial to attaining steady progress in this field.

Multi-year data from satellite- and ground-based sensors show details and scale matter in assessing climate's effects on wetland surface water, amphibians, and landscape conditions

Long-term, interdisciplinary studies of relations between climate and ecological conditions on wetland-upland landscapes have been lacking, especially studies integrated across scales meaningful for adaptive resource management. We collected data in situ at individual wetlands, and via satellite for surrounding 4-km² landscape blocks, to assess relations between annual weather dynamics, snow duration, phenology, wetland surface-water availability, amphibian presence and calling activity, greenness, and evapotranspiration in four U.S. conservation areas from 2008 to 2012. Amid recent decades of relatively warm growing seasons, 2012 and 2010 were the first and second warmest seasons, respectively, dating back to 1895. Accordingly, we observed the earliest starts of springtime biological activity during those two years. In all years, early-season amphibians first called soon after daily mean air temperatures were ≥ 0°C and snow had mostly melted. Similarly, satellite-based indicators suggested seasonal leaf-out happened soon after snowmelt and temperature thresholds for plant growth had occurred. Daily fluctuations in weather and water levels were related to amphibian calling activity, including decoupling the timing of the onset of calling at the start of season from the onset of calling events later in the season. Within-season variation in temperature and precipitation also was related to vegetation greenness and evapotranspiration, but more at monthly and seasonal scales. Wetland water levels were moderately to strongly associated with precipitation and early or intermittent wetland drying likely reduced amphibian reproduction success in some years, even though Pseudacris crucifer occupied sites at consistently high levels. Notably, satellite-based indicators of landscape water availability did not suggest such consequential, intra-seasonal variability in wetland surface-water availability. Our cross-disciplinary data show how temperature and precipitation interacted to affect key ecological relations and outcomes on our study landscapes. These results demonstrate the value of multi-year studies and the importance of scale for understanding actual climate-related effects in these areas.

Interspecific interactions are conditional on temperature in an Appalachian stream salamander community

Differences in the rates of responses to climate change have the potential to disrupt well-established ecological interactions among species. In semi-aquatic communities, competitive asymmetry based on body size currently maintains competitive exclusion and coexistence via interference competition. Elevated temperatures are predicted to have the strongest negative effects on large species and aquatic species. Our objectives were to evaluate the interaction between the effects of elevated temperatures and competitor identity on growth and habitat selection behavior of semi-aquatic salamanders in stream mesocosms. We observed interference competition between small and large species. Elevated temperatures had a negative effect on the larger species and a neutral effect on the smaller species. At elevated temperatures, the strength of interference competition declined, and the smaller species co-occupied the same aquatic cover objects as the larger species more frequently. Disruptions in competitive interactions in this community may affect habitat use patterns and decrease selection for character displacement among species. Determining how biotic interactions change along abiotic gradients is necessary to predict the future long-term stability of current communities.

Altered spring phenology of North American freshwater turtles and the importance of representative populations

Globally, populations of diverse taxa have altered phenology in response to climate change. However, most research has focused on a single population of a given taxon, which may be unrepresentative for comparative analyses, and few long-term studies of phenology in ectothermic amniotes have been published. We test for climate-altered phenology using long-term studies (10-36 years) of nesting behavior in 14 populations representing six genera of freshwater turtles (Chelydra, Chrysemys, Kinosternon, Malaclemys, Sternotherus, and Trachemys). Nesting season initiation occurs earlier in more recent years, with 11 of the populations advancing phenology. The onset of nesting for nearly all populations correlated well with temperatures during the month preceding nesting. Still, certain populations of some species have not advanced phenology as might be expected from global patterns of climate change. This collection of findings suggests a proximate link between local climate and reproduction that is potentially caused by variation in spring emergence from hibernation, ability to process food, and thermoregulatory opportunities prior to nesting. However, even though all species had populations with at least some evidence of phenological advancement, geographic variation in phenology within and among turtle species underscores the critical importance of representative data for accurate comprehensive assessments of the biotic impacts of climate change.

The acute thermal respiratory response is unique among species in a guild of larval anuran amphibians-Implications for energy economy in a warmer future

Climate change is bringing about increased temperatures of amphibian habitats throughout the world, where ectothermic larvae will experience elevated respiratory (metabolic) energy demands. We compared the acute, thermal respiratory response ("TRR") of four species of sympatric larval amphibians (Lithobates sphenocephalus, L. catesbeianus, Scaphiopus holbrookii, and Hyla chrysoscelis) to determine species-specific differences in the rate at which metabolic energy requirements increase with temperature. The TRR, the slope of the relationship between respiration rate and temperature within critical thermal limits, varied significantly among species such that the absolute, per capita change in metabolic energy requirement as temperature increased was greater for L. sphenocephalus and L. catesbeianus than for H. chrysoscelis and S. holbrookii. This was also reflected in the temperature coefficients (Q_10,18.5-25.5), which ranged from 1.77 (S. holbrookii) to 2.70 (L. sphenocephalus) for per capita respiration rates. Our results suggest that L. sphenocephalus and L. catesbeianus will experience a more rapid increase in energetic requirements as temperature increases relative to the other species, possibly magnifying their influences on the resource pool. There is a critical paucity of information on the metabolic responses of most larval amphibians across a range of temperatures, despite that this relationship dictates the magnitude of the priority investment of assimilated energy in respiration, thus shaping the energetic economy of the individual. A broader knowledge of species-specific TRRs, combined with research to determine thermal acclimatory or adaptive potentials over chronic time scales, will provide a framework for evaluating whether asymmetric, climate-mediated differences in energetic demands among species could ultimately influence larval amphibian ecology in a warmer future.

The origin of invasion of an alien frog species in Tibet, China

Identifying the origins of alien species has important implications for effectively controlling the spread of alien species. The black-spotted frog Pelophylax nigromaculatus, originally from East Asia, has become an alien species on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this study, we collected 300 individuals of P. nigromaculatus from 13 native regions and 2 invasive regions (including Nyingchi and Lhasa) on the TP. To identify the source region of the TP introductions, we sequenced portions of the mitochondrial cyt b gene. We sequenced a ∼600-bp portion of the mitochondrial cyt b gene to identify 69 haplotypes (124 polymorphic sites) in all sampled populations. According to the network results, we suggest that the P. nigromaculatus found on the TP was most likely originated from Chongqing by human introduction. Furthermore, we found that the genetic diversity was significantly lower for invasive than for native sites due to founder effects. Our study provides genetic evidence that this alien species invaded the cold environment of high elevations and expanded the distribution of P. nigromaculatus in China.

Effects of both cold and heat stresses on the liver of giant spiny frog Quasipaa spinosa: stress response and histological changes

Ambient temperature associated stress can affect the normal physiological functions in ectotherms. To assess the effects of cold or heat stress on amphibians, the giant spiny frogs, Quasipaa spinosa, were acclimated at 22 °C followed by being treated at 5 °C or 30 °C for 0, 3, 6, 12, 24 and 48 h, respectively. Histological alterations, apoptotic index, mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation, antioxidant activity indices and stress-response gene expressions in frog livers were subsequently determined. Results showed that many fat droplets appeared after 12 h of heat stress. Percentage of melanomacrophages centres significantly changed during 48 h at both stress conditions. Furthermore, the mitochondrial ROS levels were elevated in a time-dependent manner up to 6 h and 12 h in the cold and heat stress groups, respectively. The activities of superoxide dismutase, glutathione peroxidase and catalase were successively increased along the cold or heat exposure, and most of their gene expression levels showed similar changes at both stress conditions. Most tested HSP genes were sensitive to temperature exposure, and the expression profiles of most apoptosis-related genes was significantly up-regulated at 3 and 48 h under cold and heat stress, respectively. Apoptotic index at 48 h under cold stress was significantly higher than that under heat stress. Notably, lipid droplets, HSP30, HSP70 and HSP110 might be suitable bioindicators of heat stress. The results of these alterations at physiological, biochemical and molecular levels might contribute to a better understanding of the stress response of Q. spinosa and even amphibians under thermal stresses.

Model uncertainties do not affect observed patterns of species richness in the Amazon

BACKGROUND

Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scale-patterns of species richness and species vulnerability to climate change-are affected by the inputs used to model and project species distribution.

METHODS

We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals), all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2) modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered factors.

RESULTS

The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall species richness losses.

CONCLUSIONS

From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of variation, choosing the appropriate statistics according to the study objective is also essential for estimating the impacts of climate change on species distribution. Yet from a conservation perspective, we show that Amazon endemic fauna is potentially vulnerable to climate change, due to expected reductions on suitable climate area. Climate-driven faunal movements are predicted towards the Andes mountains, which might work as climate refugia for migrating species.

Pathogen richness and abundance predict patterns of adaptive major histocompatibility complex variation in insular amphibians

The identification of the factors responsible for genetic variation and differentiation at adaptive loci can provide important insights into the evolutionary process and is crucial for the effective management of threatened species. We studied the impact of environmental viral richness and abundance on functional diversity and differentiation of the MHC class Ia locus in populations of the black-spotted pond frog (Pelophylax nigromaculatus), an IUCN-listed species, on 24 land-bridge islands of the Zhoushan Archipelago and three nearby mainland sites. We found a high proportion of private MHC alleles in mainland and insular populations, corresponding to 32 distinct functional supertypes, and strong positive selection on MHC antigen-binding sites in all populations. Viral pathogen diversity and abundance were reduced at island sites relative to the mainland, and islands housed distinctive viral communities. Standardized MHC diversity at island sites exceeded that found at neutral microsatellites, and the representation of key functional supertypes was positively correlated with the abundance of specific viruses in the environment (Frog virus 3 and Ambystoma tigrinum virus). These results indicate that pathogen-driven diversifying selection can play an important role in maintaining functionally important MHC variation following island isolation, highlighting the importance of considering functionally important genetic variation and host-pathogen associations in conservation planning and management.

Effects of environmental warming during early life history on libellulid odonates

Climate warming affects ectotherms globally, yet we know little regarding the variability in species’ responses to warming, particularly in early life stages. Additionally, intraspecific variation in response to warming is understudied but may determine species’ resilience to warming. To assess how temperature affects egg development rate in co-occurring dragonfly species, we manipulated temperature (range: 22–31 °C) and measured time to hatching. Warming decreased egg development time across all species, indicating that while climate warming will advance hatching phenology, maintained synchrony in hatching order will likely not affect species interactions. Our second experiment examined early life-history responses to warming in the dot-tailed whiteface (Leucorrhinia intacta (Hagen, 1861)) dragonfly. We measured time to hatching, hatchling size, growth rate, and survival at four temperatures (23–30 °C), including a treatment with increased thermal variation. Warming resulted in smaller hatchlings with increased growth and mortality rates, whereas higher thermal variation did not have effects different from those of warming alone. We observed significant intraspecific variation in the responses to warming in both egg development time and hatchling size and this variation was correlated with date of oviposition. High levels of intraspecific variation may be important in buffering populations from the effects of climate warming.

Temporal shifts and temperature sensitivity of avian spring migratory phenology: a phylogenetic meta-analysis

There are wide reports of advances in the timing of spring migration of birds over time and in relation to rising temperatures, though phenological responses vary substantially within and among species. An understanding of the ecological, life-history and geographic variables that predict this intra- and interspecific variation can guide our projections of how populations and species are likely to respond to future climate change. Here, we conduct phylogenetic meta-analyses addressing slope estimates of the timing of avian spring migration regressed on (i) year and (ii) temperature, representing a total of 413 species across five continents. We take into account slope estimation error and examine phylogenetic, ecological and geographic predictors of intra- and interspecific variation. We confirm earlier findings that on average birds have significantly advanced their spring migration time by 2·1 days per decade and 1·2 days °C-1 . We find that over time and in response to warmer spring conditions, short-distance migrants have advanced spring migratory phenology by more than long-distance migrants. We also find that larger bodied species show greater advance over time compared to smaller bodied species. Our results did not reveal any evidence that interspecific variation in migration response is predictable on the basis of species' habitat or diet. We detected a substantial phylogenetic signal in migration time in response to both year and temperature, suggesting that some of the shifts in migratory phenological response to climate are predictable on the basis of phylogeny. However, we estimate high levels of species and spatial variance relative to phylogenetic variance, which is consistent with plasticity in response to climate evolving fairly rapidly and being more influenced by adaptation to current local climate than by common descent. On average, avian spring migration times have advanced over time and as spring has become warmer. While we are able to identify predictors that explain some of the true among-species variation in response, substantial intra- and interspecific variation in migratory response remains to be explained.

Amphibian breeding phenology trends under climate change: predicting the past to forecast the future

Global climate warming is predicted to hasten the onset of spring breeding by anuran amphibians in seasonal environments. Previous data had indicated that the breeding phenology of a population of Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) at their northern range limit had been progressively later in spring, contrary to generally observed trends in other species. Although these animals are known to respond to environmental temperature and the lunar cycle to commence breeding, the timing of breeding should also be influenced by the onset of overwintering animals' prior upward movement through the soil column from beneath the frost line as winter becomes spring. I used recorded weather data to identify four factors of temperature, rainfall and snowfall in late winter and early spring that correlated with the toads' eventual date of emergence aboveground. Estimated dates of spring emergence of the toads calculated using a predictive model based on these factors, as well as the illumination of the moon, were highly correlated with observed dates of emergence over 24 consecutive years. Using the model to estimate of past dates of spring breeding (i.e. retrodiction) indicated that even three decades of data were insufficient to discern any appreciable phenological trend in these toads. However, by employing weather data dating back to 1876, I detected a significant trend over 140 years towards earlier spring emergence by the toads by less than half a day/decade, while, over the same period of time, average annual air temperature and annual precipitation had both increased. Changes in the springtime breeding phenology for late-breeding species, such as Fowler's Toads, therefore may conform to expectations of earlier breeding under global warming. Improved understanding of the environmental cues that bring organisms out of winter dormancy will enable better interpretation of long-term phenological trends.

Non-target effects of a glyphosate-based herbicide on Common toad larvae (Bufo bufo, Amphibia) and associated algae are altered by temperature

BACKGROUND

Glyphosate-based herbicides are the most widely used pesticides in agriculture, horticulture, municipalities and private gardens that can potentially contaminate nearby water bodies inhabited by amphibians and algae. Moreover, the development and diversity of these aquatic organisms could also be affected by human-induced climate change that might lead to more periods with extreme temperatures. However, to what extent non-target effects of these herbicides on amphibians or algae are altered by varying temperature is not well known.

METHODS

We studied effects of five concentrations of the glyphosate-based herbicide formulation Roundup PowerFlex (0, 1.5, 3, 4 mg acid equivalent glyphosate L-1 as a one time addition and a pulse treatment of totally 4 mg a.e. glyphosate L-1) on larval development of Common toads (Bufo bufo, L.; Amphibia: Anura) and associated algae communities under two temperature regimes (15 vs. 20 °C).

RESULTS

Herbicide contamination reduced tail growth (-8%), induced the occurrence of tail deformations (i.e. lacerated or crooked tails) and reduced algae diversity (-6%). Higher water temperature increased tadpole growth (tail and body length (tl/bl) +66%, length-to-width ratio +4%) and decreased algae diversity (-21%). No clear relation between herbicide concentrations and tadpole growth or algae density or diversity was observed. Interactive effects of herbicides and temperature affected growth parameters, tail deformation and tadpole mortality indicating that the herbicide effects are temperature-dependent. Remarkably, herbicide-temperature interactions resulted in deformed tails in 34% of all herbicide treated tadpoles at 15 °C whereas no tail deformations were observed for the herbicide-free control at 15 °C or any tadpole at 20 °C; herbicide-induced mortality was higher at 15 °C but lower at 20 °C.

DISCUSSION

These herbicide- and temperature-induced changes may have decided effects on ecological interactions in freshwater ecosystems. Although no clear dose-response effect was seen, the presence of glyphosate was decisive for an effect, suggesting that the lowest observed effect concentration (LOEC) in our study was 1.5 mg a.e. glyphosate L-1 water. Overall, our findings also question the relevance of pesticide risk assessments conducted at standard temperatures.

Acute, chronic and biochemical effects of chlorothalonil on Agalychnis callidryas, Isthmohyla pseudopuma and Smilisca baudinii tadpoles

Declines of amphibian populations have been a worldwide issue of concern for the scientific community during the last several decades. Efforts are being carried out to elucidate factors related to this phenomenon. Among these factors, pathogens, climate change, and environmental pollution have been suggested as possible causes. Regarding environmental pollutants, some pesticides are persistent in the environment and capable of being transported long distances from their release point. In Costa Rica, some pesticides have been detected in protected areas, at locations where amphibian populations have declined. Information about toxicity of pesticides used in Costa Rican agriculture to amphibians is still scarce, particularly for native species.Toxicity tests with chlorothalonil, a fungicide intensively used in Costa Rica, were carried out exposing tadpoles of three Costa Rican native species: Agalychnis callidryas, Isthmohyla pseudopuma, and Smilisca baudinii in order to evaluate acute and chronic toxicity as well as the biomarkers cholinesterase activity (ChE), glutathione-S transferase activity (GST), and lipid peroxidation (LPO).96-h LC₅₀: 26.6 (18.9-35.8) μg/L to A. callidryas, 25.5 (21.3-29.7) μg/L to I pseudopuma and 32.3 (26.3-39.7) μg/L to S. baudinii were determined for chlorothalonil. These three species of anurans are among the most sensitive to chlorothalonil according to the literature. Besides, GST was induced in S. baudinii after exposure to sub-lethal concentrations of chlorothalonil while evisceration occurred in S. baudinii and A. callidryas tadpoles exposed to lethal concentrations of the fungicide. Chronic exposure to sub-lethal concentrations accelerated development in S. baudinii and caused lesions in tail of S. baudinii and I. pseudopuma tadpoles. Our results demonstrate that chlorothalonil is highly toxic to native amphibian species and that low concentrations can cause biochemical responses related to phase II of biotransformation and effects on development.

Recent and future threats to the Endangered Cuban toad Peltophryne longinasus: potential additive impacts of climate change and habitat loss

Habitat loss and climate change are major threats to amphibian species worldwide. We combined niche modelling under various climatic scenarios with analysis of habitat loss and the appropriateness of Cuban protected areas to identify major risk zones for the Endangered Cuban toad Peltophryne longinasus. Four subspecies with disjunct distributions associated with mountain forests are recognized. Our results suggest that the western subspecies, P. longinasus longinasus and P. longinasus cajalbanensis, are at risk from global warming, habitat degradation and potential additive effects. Peltophryne longinasus dunni, in central Cuba, has the lowest threat level related to climate change and habitat loss but could become increasingly threatened by the presence of the infectious disease chytridiomycosis. The eastern subspecies, P. longinasus ramsdeni, faces moderate impacts of climate change and habitat loss; however, low opportunity of migration to new areas and population decline justify a high threatened status for this subspecies. Our results predict minor temperature increases and precipitation decreases in the future. Nevertheless, at the biological level these changes could generate variations in species physiology, vocal behaviour and prey availability, and could probably increase the risk of predation. In Cuba protected areas have contributed to avoiding excessive forest loss but the potential impact of climate change was not considered in their original design. Our findings confirm that all subspecies of P. longinasus are threatened but management measures should be tailored according to the various predicted impacts.

Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review

Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species-study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians.

The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China

Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137-4,124 m to 286-4,396 m in the 2050s or 314-4,448 m in the 2070s), and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded.

Water Temperature Affects Susceptibility to Ranavirus

The occurrence of emerging infectious diseases in wildlife populations is increasing, and changes in environmental conditions have been hypothesized as a potential driver. For example, warmer ambient temperatures might favor pathogens by providing more ideal conditions for propagation or by stressing hosts. Our objective was to determine if water temperature played a role in the pathogenicity of an emerging pathogen (ranavirus) that infects ectothermic vertebrate species. We exposed larvae of four amphibian species to a Frog Virus 3 (FV3)-like ranavirus at two temperatures (10 and 25°C). We found that FV3 copies in tissues and mortality due to ranaviral disease were greater at 25°C than at 10°C for all species. In a second experiment with wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus), we found that a 2°C change (10 vs. 12°C) affected ranaviral disease outcomes, with greater infection and mortality at 12°C. There was evidence that 10°C stressed Cope's gray tree frog (Hyla chrysoscelis) larvae, which is a species that breeds during summer-all individuals died at this temperature, but only 10% tested positive for FV3 infection. The greater pathogenicity of FV3 at 25°C might be related to faster viral replication, which in vitro studies have reported previously. Colder temperatures also may decrease systemic infection by reducing blood circulation and the proportion of phagocytes, which are known to disseminate FV3 through the body. Collectively, our results indicate that water temperature during larval development may play a role in the emergence of ranaviruses.

Allocation trade-off under climate warming in experimental amphibian populations

Climate change could either directly or indirectly cause population declines via altered temperature, rainfall regimes, food availability or phenological responses. However few studies have focused on allocation trade-offs between growth and reproduction under marginal resources, such as food scarce that may be caused by climate warming. Such critical changes may have an unpredicted impact on amphibian life-history parameters and even population dynamics. Here, we report an allocation strategy of adult anuran individuals involving a reproductive stage under experimental warming. Using outdoor mesocosm experiments we simulated a warming scenario likely to occur at the end of this century. We examined the effects of temperature (ambient vs. pre-/post-hibernation warming) and food availability (normal vs. low) on reproduction and growth parameters of pond frogs (Pelophylax nigromaculatus). We found that temperature was the major factor influencing reproductive time of female pond frogs, which showed a significant advancing under post-hibernation warming treatment. While feeding rate was the major factor influencing reproductive status of females, clutch size, and variation of body size for females, showed significant positive correlations between feeding rate and reproductive status, clutch size, or variation of body size. Our results suggested that reproduction and body size of amphibians might be modulated by climate warming or food availability variation. We believe this study provides some new evidence on allocation strategies suggesting that amphibians could adjust their reproductive output to cope with climate warming.

Interactive effects of climate change with nutrients, mercury, and freshwater acidification on key taxa in the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative region

The North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative LCC (NA LCC) is a public-private partnership that provides information to support conservation decisions that may be affected by global climate change (GCC) and other threats. The NA LCC region extends from southeast Virginia to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Within this region, the US National Climate Assessment documented increases in air temperature, total precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation events, and rising sea level, and predicted more drastic changes. Here, we synthesize literature on the effects of GCC interacting with selected contaminant, nutrient, and environmental processes to adversely affect natural resources within this region. Using a case study approach, we focused on 3 stressors with sufficient NA LCC region-specific information for an informed discussion. We describe GCC interactions with a contaminant (Hg) and 2 complex environmental phenomena-freshwater acidification and eutrophication. We also prepared taxa case studies on GCC- and GCC-contaminant/nutrient/process effects on amphibians and freshwater mussels. Several avian species of high conservation concern have blood Hg concentrations that have been associated with reduced nesting success. Freshwater acidification has adversely affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Adirondacks and other areas of the region that are slowly recovering due to decreased emissions of N and sulfur oxides. Eutrophication in many estuaries within the region is projected to increase from greater storm runoff and less denitrification in riparian wetlands. Estuarine hypoxia may be exacerbated by increased stratification. Elevated water temperature favors algal species that produce harmful algal blooms (HABs). In several of the region's estuaries, HABs have been associated with bird die-offs. In the NA LCC region, amphibian populations appear to be declining. Some species may be adversely affected by GCC through higher temperatures and more frequent droughts. GCC may affect freshwater mussel populations via altered stream temperatures and increased sediment loading during heavy storms. Freshwater mussels are sensitive to un-ionized ammonia that more toxic at higher temperatures. We recommend studying the interactive effects of GCC on generation and bioavailability of methylmercury and how GCC-driven shifts in bird species distributions will affect avian exposure to methylmercury. Research is needed on how decreases in acid deposition concurrent with GCC will alter the structure and function of sensitive watersheds and surface waters. Studies are needed to determine how GCC will affect HABs and avian disease, and how more severe and extensive hypoxia will affect fish and shellfish populations. Regarding amphibians, we suggest research on 1) thermal tolerance and moisture requirements of species of concern, 2) effects of multiple stressors (temperature, desiccation, contaminants, nutrients), and 3) approaches to mitigate impacts of increased temperature and seasonal drought. We recommend studies to assess which mussel species and populations are vulnerable and which are resilient to rising stream temperatures, hydrological shifts, and ionic pollutants, all of which are influenced by GCC.

Temperature-induced shifts in hibernation behavior in experimental amphibian populations

Phenological shifts are primary responses of species to recent climate change. Such changes might lead to temporal mismatches in food webs and exacerbate species vulnerability. Yet insights into this phenomenon through experimental approaches are still scarce, especially in amphibians, which are particularly sensitive to changing thermal environments. Here, under controlled warming conditions, we report a critical, but poorly studied, life-cycle stage (i.e., hibernation) in frogs inhabiting subtropical latitudes. Using outdoor mesocosm experiments, we examined the effects of temperature (ambient vs. + ~2.2/2.4 °C of pre-/post-hibernation warming) and food availability (normal vs. 1/3 food) on the date of entrance into/emergence from hibernation in Pelophylax nigromaculatus. We found temperature was the major factor determining the hibernation period, which showed a significant shortening under experimental warming (6–8 days), with delays in autumn and advances in spring. Moreover, the timing of hibernation was not affected by food availability, whereas sex and, particularly, age were key factors in the species’ phenological responses. Specifically, male individuals emerged from hibernation earlier, while older individuals also entered and emerged from hibernation earlier. We believe that this study provides some of the first experimental evidence for the effect of climate warming on the timing of amphibian hibernation.

Upper thermal tolerance in anuran embryos and tadpoles at constant and variable peak temperatures

Anuran survival is strongly affected by exposure to high environmental temperatures. However, their upper thermal tolerances vary between species and within developmental stages. The aims of this research were to measure the median lethal temperature (LT50) of three anuran developmental stages (Gosner stages 10, 20, and 25) at a constant thermal regime, and of developing embryos (stage 10) until they became tadpoles (stage 25) exposed to daily peaks of temperatures between 1000 and 1600. Four Colombian species (Emerald-eyed Treefrog, Hypsiboas crepitans (Wied-Neuwied, 1824); Tungara Frog, Engystomops pustulosus (Cope, 1864); Rivero’s Toad, Rhinella humboldti (Gallardo, 1965); Emerald Glassfrog, Espadarana prosoblepon (Boettger, 1892)) were used in these experiments. An ontogenetic increase was observed in the upper thermal tolerance from embryos to tadpoles for all species studied. In addition, developing embryos exposed to peak temperatures showed a LT50 fairly close to the mean of the maximum habitat temperatures, particularly in H. crepitans and E. pustulosus that lay egg masses exposed directly to the sun. Environmental temperatures in the microhabitat of species studied showed values remarkably higher than their experimental LT50. Therefore, we postulate that rapid increases in environmental temperatures, as result of global or local changes, might be a critical factor for anuran survival, mainly during the embryonic stages when they are more sensitive to temperature.

Warmer winters reduce frog fecundity and shift breeding phenology, which consequently alters larval development and metamorphic timing

One widely documented phenological response to climate change is the earlier occurrence of spring-breeding events. While such climate change-driven shifts in phenology are common, their consequences for individuals and populations have rarely been investigated. I addressed this gap in our knowledge by using a multi-year observational study of six wood frog (Rana sylvatica) populations near the southern edge of their range. I tested first if winter temperature or precipitation affected the date of breeding and female fecundity, and second if timing of breeding affected subsequent larval development rate, mass at metamorphosis, date of metamorphosis, and survival. Warmer winters were associated with earlier breeding but reduced female fecundity. Winter precipitation did not affect breeding date, but was positively associated with female fecundity. There was no association between earlier breeding and larval survival or mass at metamorphosis, but earlier breeding was associated with delayed larval development. The delay in larval development was explained through a counterintuitive correlation between breeding date and temperature during larval development. Warmer winters led to earlier breeding, which in turn was associated with cooler post-breeding temperatures that slowed larval development. The delay in larval development did not fully compensate for the earlier breeding, such that for every 2 days earlier that breeding took place, the average date of metamorphosis was 1 day earlier. Other studies have found that earlier metamorphosis is associated with increased postmetamorphic growth and survival, suggesting that earlier breeding has beneficial effects on wood frog populations.

Effects of social and climatic factors on birth sex ratio in Macaca mulatta in Mount Taihangshan area

Sex allocation theory predicts the optimal investment to male and female offspring. However, a biased sex ratio requires explanations as to why the deviation occurs. Rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta) is the most widely distributed nonhuman primate species and the Taihangshan macaque (Macaca mulatta tcheliensis) occupies the northern limit of all rhesus macaque natural populations worldwide. We observed one macaque troop (Wangwu-1 [WW-1]) inhabiting Taihangshan Macaque National Nature Reserve and recorded all birth events and the sex of newborn macaques from 2004 to 2013. Our aim was to apply the Trivers-Willard hypothesis to this free-ranging rhesus macaque troop, and to understand the relationship between climatic parameters (precipitation and temperature) and birth sex ratio. We found that the total newborn macaques showed a female-biased sex ratio at birth in the WW-1 troop, but there were no significant biased birth sex ratios in all matriarchs and in high-ranking and middle-ranking matrilineal units. However, the low-ranking macaque matrilineal unit was significantly female-biased. Moreover, we found that the annual precipitation of the previous year was positively associated with the birth sex ratio, and there was an interactive effect of troop size and current winter temperature on the birth sex ratio. The underlying mechanisms for the effects of social and climatic factors on birth sex ratio could be complex, and we discuss several plausible explanations.

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection dynamics vary seasonally in upstate New York, USA

The amphibian disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is a major cause of worldwide amphibian declines and extinctions. Although several studies indicate that Bd prevalence and infection intensity vary seasonally, temporal variation of Bd at high-latitude sites, such as the northeastern USA, is still poorly characterized. We screened amphibians for Bd monthly at 2 study sites in New York State from April to October 2011 and used quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) to detect and quantify temporal variability in Bd infection prevalence and intensity. We found pronounced seasonal variation in both Bd infection prevalence and intensity at the community level, and our data indicate that this pattern is due to a few species (Lithobates catesbeianus, L. clamitans, and Notophthalmus viridescens) that drive temporal variability in disease dynamics. Amphibian body mass and sex were significant predictors of infection intensity but not infection prevalence. Understanding the temporal dynamics of Bd host-pathogen interactions provides important insight into regional, seasonal, and host-specific determinants of disease outbreaks. Further, our study elucidates the most relevant and informative timing for Bd surveys in temperate amphibian assemblages. Seasonal variation of infection dynamics suggests that Bd surveys from different sampling time points are not comparable, and summer surveys to evaluate chytridiomycosis may significantly underestimate Bd prevalence and intensity, leading to false conclusions about the severity of chytridiomycosis-induced amphibian mortality and population decline.

Identifying Priority Species and Conservation Opportunities Under Future Climate Scenarios: Amphibians in a Biodiversity Hotspot

Climate change is driving shifts in the distribution of plants and animals, and prioritizing management actions for such shifts is a necessary but technically difficult challenge. We worked with state agencies in the southeastern United States to identify high-priority amphibian species, to model the vulnerabilities of those species to regional climate change, and to identify long-term climatic refugia within the context of existing conservation lands. Directly interfacing with state natural resource experts ensured that 1) species prioritization schemes extend beyond political boundaries and 2) our models resulted in conservation-relevant applications. We used a correlative model to project midcentury distributions of suitable climate for priority species and to evaluate each species' vulnerability to climate change. Using spatially explicit projected climate distributions, we ranked existing protected areas relative to their ability to provide climatic refugia for priority species in 2050. We identified 21 species as regional high-priority species. Fifteen of the 21 species are forecast to lose more than 85% of their climatically suitable habitat. Regions in the Appalachian Mountains, the Florida Panhandle, and the north-central region of Alabama are projected to lose the most climatic habitat for priority amphibian species. We identified many existing protected areas as midcentury climatic refugia in the Appalachians; however, our projections indicated refugia in the Southeast Coastal Plain to be exceedingly scarce. Although the topographic relief present in the Appalachians appears to provide future conservation opportunities via climatic refugia, the Coastal Plain affords fewer such opportunities and conservation of amphibians in that region is likely to be more challenging. The approach outlined here could be applied across a broad range of taxa and regions.

Temporal change in body mass of two sympatric hamster species and implications for population dynamics

Shifting of body size distributions of animals has been a long-time focus in population ecology, but the underlying mechanism of density-dependent changes in body size and its implications for population dynamics of animals are largely unknown. In this 26-year study, we investigated intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting body mass of the Chinese striped hamster (Cricetulus barabensis Pallas, 1773) and the greater long-tailed hamster (Tscherskia triton de Winton, 1899) in the Northern China Plain. We proposed three hypotheses to explain body mass shifts in the two hamster species: growth, survival, and reproduction hypotheses. Our results showed that mean and maximum body masses of both hamster species were positively correlated with population density, and that this density-dependent change in body mass is more likely to be caused by a change in mortality rates, not by a change in growth rates or reproduction rates. The sustained decline of body mass during the study period was probably caused by increased mortality owing to an increase in the area of agricultural irrigation. Our results suggest that, under the condition of lacking survival and growth data, the maximum body mass (which represents survival rate), minimum body mass (which represents growth rate), and mean body mass are very useful criteria in revealing intrinsic and extrinsic effects on population dynamics and the underlying mechanisms.

Matching species traits to projected threats and opportunities from climate change

AIM

Climate change can lead to decreased climatic suitability within species' distributions, increased fragmentation of climatically suitable space, and/or emergence of newly suitable areas outside present distributions. Each of these extrinsic threats and opportunities potentially interacts with specific intrinsic traits of species, yet this specificity is seldom considered in risk assessments. We present an analytical framework for examining projections of climate change-induced threats and opportunities with reference to traits that are likely to mediate species' responses, and illustrate the applicability of the framework.

LOCATION

Sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We applied the framework to 195 sub-Saharan African amphibians with both available bioclimatic envelope model projections for the mid-21st century and trait data. Excluded were 500 narrow-ranging species mainly from montane areas. For each of projected losses, increased fragmentation and gains of climate space, we selected potential response-mediating traits and examined the spatial overlap with vulnerability due to these traits. We examined the overlap for all species, and individually for groups of species with different combinations of threats and opportunities.

RESULTS

In the Congo Basin and arid Southern Africa, projected losses for wide-ranging amphibians were compounded by sensitivity to climatic variation, and expected gains were precluded by poor dispersal ability. The spatial overlap between exposure and vulnerability was more pronounced for species projected to have their climate space contracting in situ or shifting to distant geographical areas. Our results exclude the potential exposure of narrow-ranging species to shrinking climates in the African tropical mountains.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

We illustrate the application of a framework combining spatial projections of climate change exposure with traits that are likely to mediate species' responses. Although the proposed framework carries several assumptions that require further scrutiny, its application adds a degree of realism to familiar assessments that consider all species to be equally affected by climate change-induced threats and opportunities.

Linking climate change to population cycles of hares and lynx

The classic 10-year population cycle of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus, Erxleben 1777) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis, Kerr 1792) in the boreal forests of North America has drawn much attention from both population and community ecologists worldwide; however, the ecological mechanisms driving the 10-year cyclic dynamic pattern are not fully revealed yet. In this study, by the use of historic fur harvest data, we constructed a series of generalized additive models to study the effects of density dependence, predation, and climate (both global climate indices of North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and northern hemispheric temperature (NHT) and local weather data including temperature, rainfall, and snow). We identified several key pathways from global and local climate to lynx with various time lags: rainfall shows a negative, and snow shows a positive effect on lynx; NHT and NAO negatively affect lynx through their positive effect on rainfall and negative effect on snow; SOI positively affects lynx through its negative effect on rainfall. Direct or delayed density dependency effects, the prey effect of hare on lynx and a 2-year delayed negative effect of lynx on hare (defined as asymmetric predation) were found. The simulated population dynamics is well fitted to the observed long-term fluctuations of hare and lynx populations. Through simulation, we find density dependency and asymmetric predation, only producing damped oscillation, are necessary but not sufficient factors in causing the observed 10-year cycles; while extrinsic climate factors are important in producing and modifying the sustained cycles. Two recent population declines of lynx (1940-1955 and after 1980) were likely caused by ongoing climate warming indirectly. Our results provide an alternative explanation to the mechanism of the 10-year cycles, and there is a need for further investigation on links between disappearance of population cycles and global warming in hare-lynx system.

Climate change, multiple stressors, and the decline of ectotherms

Climate change is believed to be causing declines of ectothermic vertebrates, but there is little evidence that climatic conditions associated with declines have exceeded critical (i.e., acutely lethal) maxima or minima, and most relevant studies are correlative, anecdotal, or short-term (hours). We conducted an 11-week factorial experiment to examine the effects of temperature (22 °C or 27 °C), moisture (wet or dry), and atrazine (an herbicide; 0, 4, 40, 400 μg/L exposure as embryos and larvae) on the survival, growth, behavior, and foraging rates of postmetamorphic streamside salamanders (Ambystoma barbouri), a species of conservation concern. The tested climatic conditions were between the critical maxima and minima of streamside salamanders; thus, this experiment quantified the long-term effects of climate change within the noncritical range of this species. Despite a suite of behavioral adaptations to warm and dry conditions (e.g., burrowing, refuge use, huddling with conspecifics, and a reduction in activity), streamside salamanders exhibited significant loss of mass and significant mortality in all but the cool and moist conditions, which were closest to the climatic conditions in which they are most active in nature. A temperature of 27 °C represented a greater mortality risk than dry conditions; death occurred rapidly at this temperature and more gradually under cool and dry conditions. Foraging decreased under dry conditions, which suggests there were opportunity costs to water conservation. Exposure to the herbicide atrazine additively decreased water-conserving behaviors, foraging efficiency, mass, and time to death. Hence, the hypothesis that moderate climate change can cause population declines is even more plausible under scenarios with multiple stressors. These results suggest that climate change within the noncritical range of species and pollution may reduce individual performance by altering metabolic demands, hydration, and foraging effort and may facilitate population declines of amphibians and perhaps other ectothermic vertebrates.

Using physiology to understand climate-driven changes in disease and their implications for conservation

Controversy persists regarding the contributions of climate change to biodiversity losses, through its effects on the spread and emergence of infectious diseases. One of the reasons for this controversy is that there are few mechanistic studies that explore the links among climate change, infectious disease, and declines of host populations. Given that host-parasite interactions are generally mediated by physiological responses, we submit that physiological models could facilitate the prediction of how host-parasite interactions will respond to climate change, and might offer theoretical and terminological cohesion that has been lacking in the climate change-disease literature. We stress that much of the work on how climate influences host-parasite interactions has emphasized changes in climatic means, despite a hallmark of climate change being changes in climatic variability and extremes. Owing to this gap, we highlight how temporal variability in weather, coupled with non-linearities in responses to mean climate, can be used to predict the effects of climate on host-parasite interactions. We also discuss the climate variability hypothesis for disease-related declines, which posits that increased unpredictable temperature variability might provide a temporary advantage to pathogens because they are smaller and have faster metabolisms than their hosts, allowing more rapid acclimatization following a temperature shift. In support of these hypotheses, we provide case studies on the role of climatic variability in host population declines associated with the emergence of the infectious diseases chytridiomycosis, withering syndrome, and malaria. Finally, we present a mathematical model that provides the scaffolding to integrate metabolic theory, physiological mechanisms, and large-scale spatiotemporal processes to predict how simultaneous changes in climatic means, variances, and extremes will affect host-parasite interactions. However, several outstanding questions remain to be answered before investigators can accurately predict how changes in climatic means and variances will affect infectious diseases and the conservation status of host populations.