Chilling outweighs photoperiod in preventing precocious spring development

Explaining the exceptional 4270 m high elevation limit of an evergreen oak in the south-eastern Himalayas

Unlike the well-understood alpine treeline, the upper range limits of tree taxa that do not reach the alpine treeline are largely unexplained. In this study, we explored the causes of the exceptionally high elevation (4270 m) occurrence of broad-leaved evergreen oaks (Quercus pannosa) in the south-eastern Himalayas. We assessed the course of freezing resistance of buds and leaves from winter to summer at the upper elevational limit of this oak species. Linked to leaf phenology, we analyzed freezing resistance and assessed minimum crown temperature for the past 65 years. We also examined potential carbon limitation at the range limit of this species. Last season buds and leaves operated at a safety margin of 5.5 and 11 K in mid-winter. Once fully dehardened early in July, last season foliage is damaged at -5.9 and new foliage at -4.6 °C. Bud break is timed for late June to early July when low temperature extremes historically were never below -3.0 °C. The monsoon regime ensures a long remaining season (149 days), thus compensating for the late onset of shoot growth. Compared with a site at 3450 m, specific leaf area is reduced, foliar non-structural carbohydrate concentrations are similar and the δ13C signal is higher, jointly suggesting that carbon limitation is unlikely at the range limit of this species. We also show that these oaks enter the growing season with fully intact (not embolized) xylem. We conclude that the interaction between phenology and freezing tolerance results in safe flushing, while still facilitating shoot maturation before winter. These factors jointly determine the upper range limit of this oak species. Our study illuminates an exceptional case of broad-leaved evergreen tree performance near the treeline, and by exploring a suite of traits, we can underpin the central role of flushing phenology in such a stressful environment.

Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling

Spring warming substantially advances leaf unfolding and flowering time for perennials. Winter warming, however, decreases chilling accumulation (CA), which increases the heat requirement (HR) and acts to delay spring phenology. Whether or not this negative CA-HR relationship is correctly interpreted in ecosystem models remains unknown. Using leaf unfolding and flowering data for 30 perennials in Europe, here we show that more than half (7 of 12) of current chilling models are invalid since they show a positive CA-HR relationship. The possible reason is that they overlook the effect of freezing temperature on dormancy release. Overestimation of the advance in spring phenology by the end of this century by these invalid chilling models could be as large as 7.6 and 20.0 days under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Our results highlight the need for a better representation of chilling for the correct understanding of spring phenological responses to future climate change.

Climate warming is advancing spring leaf unfolding, but it is also reducing the cold periods that many trees require to break winter dormancy. Here, the authors show that 7 of 12 current chilling models fail to account for the correct relationship between chilling accumulation and heat requirement, leading to substantial overestimates of the advance of spring phenology under climate change.

Climate warming increases spring phenological differences among temperate trees

Climate warming has substantially advanced spring leaf flushing, but winter chilling and photoperiod co-determine the leaf flushing process in ways that vary among species. As a result, the interspecific differences in spring phenology (IDSP) are expected to change with climate warming, which may, in turn, induce negative or positive ecological consequences. However, the temporal change of IDSP at large spatiotemporal scales remains unclear. In this study, we analyzed long-term in-situ observations (1951-2016) of six, coexisting temperate tree species from 305 sites across Central Europe and found that phenological ranking did not change when comparing the rapidly warming period 1984-2016 to the marginally warming period 1951-1983. However, the advance of leaf flushing was significantly larger in early-flushing species EFS (6.7 ± 0.3 days) than in late-flushing species LFS (5.9 ± 0.2 days) between the two periods, indicating extended IDSP. This IDSP extension could not be explained by differences in temperature sensitivity between EFS and LFS; however, climatic warming-induced heat accumulation effects on leaf flushing, which were linked to a greater heat requirement and higher photoperiod sensitivity in LFS, drove the shifts in IDSP. Continued climate warming is expected to further extend IDSP across temperate trees, with associated implications for ecosystem function.

Variation in the phenology of photosynthesis among eastern white pine provenances in response to warming

In higher-latitude trees, temperature and photoperiod control the beginning and end of the photosynthetically active season. Elevated temperature (ET) has advanced spring warming and delayed autumn cooling while photoperiod remains unchanged. We assessed the effects of warming on the length of the photosynthetically active season of three provenances of Pinus strobus L. seedlings from different latitudes, and evaluated the accuracy of the photochemical reflectance index (PRI) and the chlorophyll/carotenoid index (CCI) for tracking the predicted variation in spring and autumn phenology of photosynthesis among provenances. Seedlings from northern, local and southern P. strobus provenances were planted in a temperature-free-air-controlled enhancement (T-FACE) experiment and exposed to ET (+1.5/3°C; day/night). Over 18 months, we assessed photosynthetic phenology by measuring chlorophyll fluorescence, gas exchange, leaf spectral reflectance and pigment content. During autumn, all seedlings regardless of provenance followed the same sequence of phenological events with the initial downregulation of photosynthesis, followed by the modulation of non-photochemical quenching and associated adjustments of zeaxanthin pool sizes. However, the timing of autumn downregulation differed between provenances, with delayed onset in the southern provenance (SP) and earlier onset in the northern relative to the local provenance, indicating that photoperiod at the provenance origin is a dominant factor controlling autumn phenology. Experimental warming further delayed the downregulation of photosynthesis during autumn in the SP. A provenance effect during spring was also observed but was generally not significant. The vegetation indices PRI and CCI were both effective at tracking the seasonal variations of energy partitioning in needles and the differences of carotenoid pigments indicative of the stress status of needles. These results demonstrate that PRI and CCI can be useful tools for monitoring conifer phenology and for the remote monitoring of the length of the photosynthetically active season of conifers in a changing climate.

Phenological Differentiation in Sugar Maple Populations and Responses of Bud Break to an Experimental Warming

Species with wide geographical ranges exhibit specific adaptations to local climates, which may result in diverging responses among populations to changing conditions. Climate change has advanced spring phenology worldwide, but questions of whether and how the phenological responses to warming differ among individuals across the natural range of a species remain. We conducted two experiments in January and April 2019, and performed daily observations of the timings of bud break in 1-year-old seedlings of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marshall) from 25 Canadian provenances at two thermal conditions (14/10 and 18/14 °C day/night temperature) in a controlled environment. Overall, bud break started 6 days from the beginning of the experiments and finished after 125 days. The earlier events were observed in seedlings originating from the colder sites. Bud break was delayed by 4.8 days per additional degree Celsius in the mean annual temperature at the origin site. Warming advanced the timing of bud break by 17–27 days in January and by 3–8 days in April. Similar advancements in bud break were observed among provenances under warming conditions, which rejected our hypothesis that sugar maple populations have different phenological responses to warming. Our findings confirm the differentiation in ecotypes for the process of bud break in sugar maple. In cases of homogenous spring warming across the native range of sugar maple, similar advancements in bud phenology can be expected in different populations.

Photoperiod and temperature as dominant environmental drivers triggering secondary growth resumption in Northern Hemisphere conifers

Wood formation consumes around 15% of the anthropogenic CO₂ emissions per year and plays a critical role in long-term sequestration of carbon on Earth. However, the exogenous factors driving wood formation onset and the underlying cellular mechanisms are still poorly understood and quantified, and this hampers an effective assessment of terrestrial forest productivity and carbon budget under global warming. Here, we used an extensive collection of unique datasets of weekly xylem tissue formation (wood formation) from 21 coniferous species across the Northern Hemisphere (latitudes 23 to 67°N) to present a quantitative demonstration that the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers is primarily driven by photoperiod and mean annual temperature (MAT), and only secondarily by spring forcing, winter chilling, and moisture availability. Photoperiod interacts with MAT and plays the dominant role in regulating the onset of secondary meristem growth, contrary to its as-yet-unquantified role in affecting the springtime phenology of primary meristems. The unique relationships between exogenous factors and wood formation could help to predict how forest ecosystems respond and adapt to climate warming and could provide a better understanding of the feedback occurring between vegetation and climate that is mediated by phenology. Our study quantifies the role of major environmental drivers for incorporation into state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs), thereby providing an improved assessment of long-term and high-resolution observations of biogeochemical cycles across terrestrial biomes.

Interactive climate factors restrict future increases in spring productivity of temperate and boreal trees

Climate warming is currently advancing spring leaf-out of temperate and boreal trees, enhancing net primary productivity (NPP) of forests. However, it remains unclear whether this trend will continue, preventing for accurate projections of ecosystem functioning and climate feedbacks. Several ecophysiological mechanisms have been proposed to regulate the timing of leaf emergence in response to changing environmental cues, but the relative importance of those mechanisms remains unclear. Here, we use 727,401 direct phenological observations of common European forest trees to examine the dominant controls on leaf-out. Using the emerging mechanisms, we forecast future trajectories of spring arrival and evaluate the consequences for forest carbon dynamics. By representing hypothesized relationships with autumn temperature, winter chilling, and the timing of spring onset, we accurately predicted reductions in the advance of leaf-out. There was a strong consensus between our empirical model and existing process-based models, revealing that the advance in leaf-out will not exceed 2 weeks over the rest of the century. We further estimate that, under a 'business-as-usual' climate scenario, earlier spring arrival will enhance NPP of temperate and boreal forests by ~0.2 Gt per year at the end of the century. In contrast, previous estimates based on a simple degree-day model range around 0.8 Gt. As such, the expected NPP is drastically reduced in our updated model relative to previous estimates-by a total of ~25 Gt over the rest of the century. These findings reveal important environmental constraints on the productivity of broad-leaved deciduous trees and highlight that shifting spring phenology is unlikely to slow the rate of warming by offsetting anthropogenic carbon emissions.

Phenological responses in a sycamore-aphid-parasitoid system and consequences for aphid population dynamics: A 20 year case study

Species interactions have a spatiotemporal component driven by environmental cues, which if altered by climate change can drive shifts in community dynamics. There is insufficient understanding of the precise time windows during which inter-annual variation in weather drives phenological shifts and the consequences for mismatches between interacting species and resultant population dynamics-particularly for insects. We use a 20 year study on a tri-trophic system: sycamore Acer pseudoplatanus, two associated aphid species Drepanosiphum platanoidis and Periphyllus testudinaceus and their hymenopteran parasitoids. Using a sliding window approach, we assess climatic drivers of phenology in all three trophic levels. We quantify the magnitude of resultant trophic mismatches between aphids and their plant hosts and parasitoids, and then model the impacts of these mismatches, direct weather effects and density dependence on local-scale aphid population dynamics. Warmer temperatures in mid-March to late-April were associated with advanced sycamore budburst, parasitoid attack and (marginally) D. platanoidis emergence. The precise time window during which spring weather advances phenology varies considerably across each species. Crucially, warmer temperatures in late winter delayed the emergence of both aphid species. Seasonal variation in warming rates thus generates marked shifts in the relative timing of spring events across trophic levels and mismatches in the phenology of interacting species. Despite this, we found no evidence that aphid population growth rates were adversely impacted by the magnitude of mismatch with their host plants or parasitoids, or direct impacts of temperature and precipitation. Strong density dependence effects occurred in both aphid species and probably buffered populations, through density-dependent compensation, from adverse impacts of the marked inter-annual climatic variation that occurred during the study period. These findings explain the resilience of aphid populations to climate change and uncover a key mechanism, warmer winter temperatures delaying insect phenology, by which climate change drives asynchronous shifts between interacting species.

Phenological responses of temperate and boreal trees to warming depend on ambient spring temperatures, leaf habit, and geographic range

Changes in plant phenology associated with climate change have been observed globally. What is poorly known is whether and how phenological responses to climate warming will differ from year to year, season to season, habitat to habitat, or species to species. Here, we present 5 y of phenological responses to experimental warming for 10 subboreal tree species. Research took place in the open-air B4WarmED experiment in Minnesota. The design is a two habitat (understory and open) × three warming treatments (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) factorial at two sites. Phenology was measured twice weekly during the growing seasons of 2009 through 2013. We found significant interannual variation in the effect of warming and differences among species in response to warming that relate to geographic origin and plant functional group. Moreover, responses to experimental temperature variation were similar to responses to natural temperature variation. Warming advanced the date of budburst more in early compared to late springs, suggesting that to simulate interannual variability in climate sensitivity of phenology, models should employ process-based or continuous development approaches. Differences among species in timing of budburst were also greater in early compared to late springs. Our results suggest that climate change-which will make most springs relatively "early"-could lead to a future with more variable phenology among years and among species, with consequences including greater risk of inappropriately early leafing and altered interactions among species.

Climate change fingerprints in recent European plant phenology

A paper published in Global Change Biology in 2006 revealed that phenological responses in 1971-2000 matched the warming pattern in Europe, but a lack of chilling and adaptation in farming may have reversed these findings. Therefore, for 1951-2018 in a corresponding data set, we determined changes as linear trends and analysed their variation by plant traits/groups, across season and time as well as their attribution to warming following IPCC methodology. Although spring and summer phases in wild plants advanced less (maximum advances in 1978-2007), more (~90%) and more significant (~60%) negative trends were present, being stronger in early spring, at higher elevations, but smaller for nonwoody insect-pollinated species. These trends were strongly attributable to winter and spring warming. Findings for crop spring phases were similar, but were less pronounced. There were clearer and attributable signs for a delayed senescence in response to winter and spring warming. These changes resulted in a longer growing season, but a constant generative period in wild plants and a shortened one in agricultural crops. Phenology determined by farmers' decisions differed noticeably from the purely climatic driven phases with smaller percentages of advancing (~75%) trends, but farmers' spring activities were the only group with reinforced advancement, suggesting adaptation. Trends in farmers' spring and summer activities were very likely/likely associated with the warming pattern. In contrast, the advance in autumn farming phases was significantly associated with below average summer warming. Thus, under ongoing climate change with decreased chilling the advancing phenology in spring and summer is still attributable to warming; even the farmers' activities in these seasons mirror, to a lesser extent, the warming. Our findings point to adaptation to climate change in agriculture and reveal diverse implications for terrestrial ecosystems; the strong attribution supports the necessary mediation of warming impacts to the general public.

Shifts in the temperature-sensitive periods for spring phenology in European beech and pedunculate oak clones across latitudes and over recent decades

Spring phenology of temperate trees has advanced worldwide in response to global warming. However, increasing temperatures may not necessarily lead to further phenological advance, especially in the warmer latitudes because of insufficient chilling and/or shorter day length. Determining the start of the forcing phase, that is, when buds are able to respond to warmer temperatures in spring, is therefore crucial to predict how phenology will change in the future. In this study, we used 4,056 leaf-out date observations during the period 1969-2017 for clones of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) planted in 63 sites covering a large latitudinal gradient (from Portugal ~41°N to Norway ~63°N) at the International Phenological Gardens in order to (a) evaluate how the sensitivity periods to forcing and chilling have changed with climate warming, and (b) test whether consistent patterns occur along biogeographical gradients, that is, from colder to warmer environments. Partial least squares regressions suggest that the length of the forcing period has been extended over the recent decades with climate warming in the colder latitudes but has been shortened in the warmer latitudes for both species, with a more pronounced shift for beech. We attribute the lengthening of the forcing period in the colder latitudes to earlier opportunities with temperatures that can promote bud development. In contrast, at warmer or oceanic climates, the beginning of the forcing period has been delayed, possibly due to insufficient chilling. However, in spite of a later beginning of the forcing period, spring phenology has continued to advance at these areas due to a faster satisfaction of heat requirements induced by climate warming. Overall, our results support that ongoing climate warming will have different effects on the spring phenology of forest trees across latitudes due to the interactions between chilling, forcing and photoperiod.

Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States

Urbanization has caused environmental changes, such as urban heat islands (UHIs), that affect terrestrial ecosystems. However, how and to what extent urbanization affects plant phenology remains relatively unexplored. Here, we investigated the changes in the satellite-derived start of season (SOS) and the covariation between SOS and temperature (R _T ) in 85 large cities across the conterminous United States for the period 2001-2014. We found that 1) the SOS came significantly earlier (6.1 ± 6.3 d) in 74 cities and R _T was significantly weaker (0.03 ± 0.07) in 43 cities when compared with their surrounding rural areas (P < 0.05); 2) the decreased magnitude in R _T mainly occurred in cities in relatively cold regions with an annual mean temperature <17.3 °C (e.g., Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania); and 3) the magnitude of urban-rural difference in both SOS and R _T was primarily correlated with the intensity of UHI. Simulations of two phenology models further suggested that more and faster heat accumulation contributed to the earlier SOS, while a decrease in required chilling led to a decline in R _T magnitude in urban areas. These findings provide observational evidence of a reduced covariation between temperature and SOS in major US cities, implying the response of spring phenology to warming conditions in nonurban environments may decline in the warming future.

Dormancy-Associated MADS-Box (DAM) Genes Influence Chilling Requirement of Sweet Cherries and Co-Regulate Flower Development with SOC1 Gene

Floral bud dormancy release of fruit tree species is greatly influenced by climate change. The lack of chilling accumulation often results in the occurrence of abnormal flower and low yields of sweet cherries (Prunus avium L.) in warm regions. To investigate the regulation of dormancy in sweet cherries, six DAM genes with homology to peach DAM, designated PavDAM1-6, have been identified and characterized. Phylogenetic analysis indicate that these genes are similar to DAMs in peach, apple and pear. The expression patterns of the PavDAMs in the low-chill cultivar ‘Royal Lee’ were different from that in the high-chill cultivar ‘Hongdeng’. ‘Royal Lee’ exhibits lower transcriptional level of PavDAM1 compared to ‘Hongdeng’, especially at the stage of chilling accumulation, and transcriptional levels of PavDAM4/5 were high in both cultivars during the endodormancy. Ectopic expression of PavDAM1 and PavDAM5 in Arabidopsis resulted in plants with abnormal flower and seed development, especially the PavDAM5. Higher transcriptional levels of SOC1 were observed in transgenic PavDAM1/5 lines, and ectopic expression of PavSOC1 had the similar floral phenotype. Further, protein interaction analysis demonstrated that PavDAM1/5 could interact with PavSOC1 in vivo and in vitro, which will help clarify the molecular mechanism of the flower development in sweet cherry or other fruit trees.

Chilling and Forcing From Cut Twigs-How to Simplify Phenological Experiments for Citizen Science

Low-cost phenological experiments with cut twigs are increasingly used to study bud development in response to spring warming and photoperiod. However, a broader variety of species needs to be tackled and in particular the influence of insufficient winter chilling deserves more attention. Therefore, we investigated if and how chilling requirements can be efficiently investigated by cut twigs and how this low-tech approach could be successfully implemented as a citizen science or school project. We conducted an experiment on bud burst and leaf development of Corylus avellana L. twigs, with natural chilling outdoors on a shrub (S) and another chilling treatment as cut twigs in containers (C), and subsequent forcing indoors. Subsampling of the number of cutting dates and number of twigs was used to infer minimum required sample sizes. Apart from insufficiently chilled twigs, ~80% of the twigs (both S and C) reached leaf out. For multiple definitions of chilling and forcing, a negative exponential relationship was revealed between chilling and amount of forcing needed to reach certain developmental stages. At least 5 out of 15 cutting dates or alternatively half of the 10 twig repetitions, but especially those mirroring low chilling conditions, were needed to describe the chilling-forcing relationship with some degree of robustness. In addition, for cutting dates with long chilling, i.e., from January onwards, freshly cut twigs (S) required significantly more forcing to reach bud burst than twigs from containers (C), although the effect was small. In general, chilling conditions of mature shrubs were well captured by cut twigs, therefore opening the possibility of chilling through refrigeration. We conclude that experimental protocols as outlined here are feasible for citizen scientists, school projects, and science education, and would have the potential to advance the research field if carried out on a large scale. We provide an easy-to-use Shiny simulation app to enable citizen scientists to build up a bud development model based on their own experimental data and then simulate future phenological development with winter and/or spring warming. This may encourage them to further study other aspects of climate change and the impacts of climate change.

The Interactive Effects of Chilling, Photoperiod, and Forcing Temperature on Flowering Phenology of Temperate Woody Plants

The effects of winter chilling, spring forcing temperature, and photoperiod on spring phenology are well known for many European and North American species, but the environmental cues that regulate the spring phenology of East Asian species have not yet been thoroughly investigated. Here, we conducted a growth chamber experiment to test the effects of chilling (controlled by different lengths of exposure to natural chilling conditions), forcing temperature (12, 15, or 18°C) and photoperiod (14 or 10 h) on first flowering date (FFD) of six woody species (three shrubs and three trees) native to East Asia. The three-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) separately for each species showed that the effects of chilling and forcing temperature were significant for almost all species (P < 0.05). Averaged over all chilling and photoperiod treatments, the number of days until FFD decreased by 2.3-36.1 days when the forcing temperature increased by 3°C. More chilling days reduced the time to FFD by 0.7-26 days, when averaged over forcing and photoperiod treatments. A longer photoperiod could advance the FFD by 1.0-5.6 days, on average, but its effect was only significant for two species (including one tree and one shrub). The effects of forcing temperature and photoperiod interacted with chilling for half of the studied species, being stronger in the low chilling than high chilling treatment. These results could be explained by the theory and model of growing degree-days (GDD). Increased exposure to chilling coupled to a longer photoperiod reduced the GDD requirement for FFD, especially when plants grew under low chilling conditions. However, shrubs (except Viburnum dilatatum) had lower chilling and heat requirements than trees, suggesting that, by leafing out sooner, they engage in a more opportunistic life strategy to maximize their growing season, especially before canopy closure from trees' foliage. Our results confirmed the varying effects of these three cues on the flowering phenology of woody species native to East Asia. In future climate change scenarios, spring warming is likely to advance the spring phenology of those woody species, although the reduced chilling and shorter photoperiod may partly offset this spring warming effect.

Warming Events Advance or Delay Spring Phenology by Affecting Bud Dormancy Depth in Trees

The frequency of sudden, strong warming events is projected to increase in the future. The effects of such events on spring phenology of trees might depend on their timing because spring warming has generally been shown to advance spring budburst while fall and winter warming have been shown to delay spring phenology. To understand the mechanism behind timing-specific warming effects on spring phenology, I simulated warming events during fall, mid-winter and at the end of winter and quantified their effects on bud dormancy depth and subsequently on spring leaf out. The warming events were carried out in climate chambers on tree seedlings of Betula pendula and Fagus sylvatica in October, January, and February. Control seedlings were kept at photoperiod and temperature matching the daily fluctuating field conditions. Warmed seedlings were kept 10°C warmer than the control seedlings for 10 days during the respective warming periods. Warming in October increased bud dormancy depth and decreased spring leaf-out rate only for F. sylvatica, whereas warming in February reduced bud dormancy depth and advanced spring leaf-out rate only for B. pendula. Neither bud dormancy depth nor spring leaf out rate were affected by January warming. The results indicate that warming-induced changes in bud dormancy depth may explain species- and timing-specific warming effects on spring phenology. The extent to which the timing of bud dormancy phases is species-specific will influence among-species variation in future spring leaf out times.

Responses of bud-break phenology to daily-asymmetric warming: daytime warming intensifies the advancement of bud break

There is evidence that the ongoing climate change is happening through nighttime rather than daytime warming. How such a daily-asymmetric warming modifies plant phenology is still unclear. We investigated the effects of asymmetric warming on bud break by daily monitoring seedlings belonging to 26 black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP.] and 15 balsam fir [Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.] provenances from the native range in Canada. Seedlings were subjected to either daytime or nighttime warming in three growth chambers at temperatures ranging between 10 and 24 °C. On average, a warming of 4 °C advanced the timings of bud break in both species by 2.4 days, with the later phases being more sensitive to the treatment. Bud break of both species responded more strongly to daytime warming, with the bud break occurred 1.2 and 3.2 days earlier under daytime than nighttime warming in black spruce and balsam fir, respectively. A marked ecotypic differentiation was only observed in black spruce that originated from provenances distributed broadly across Canada, with seedlings from the warmest provenance completing bud break 8.3 days later than those from the coldest one. However, no significant effect of provenance was observed for balsam fir, the narrowly distributed species. Overall, the above results suggest that a higher temporal resolution such as temperatures during daytime and nighttime, and higher spatial resolution should be taken into account to improve the accuracy of phenological model predictions under global change scenarios. Phenological models based on daily average temperature should take into account the diverging impacts of asymmetric warming on plant phenology. Our findings may indicate that the influence of warming on plant phenology may be less dramatic than expected.

Shortened temperature-relevant period of spring leaf-out in temperate-zone trees

Temperature during a particular period prior to spring leaf-out, the temperature-relevant period (TRP), is a strong determinant of the leaf-out date in temperate-zone trees. Climatic warming has substantially advanced leaf-out dates in temperate biomes worldwide, but its effect on the beginning and length of the TRP has not yet been explored, despite its direct relevance for phenology modeling. Using 1,551 species-site combinations of long-term (1951-2016) in situ observations on six tree species (namely, Aesculus hippocastanum, Alnus glutinosa, Betula pendula, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, and Quercus robur) in central Europe, we found that the advancing leaf-out was accompanied by a shortening of the TRP. On average across all species and sites, the length of the TRP significantly decreased by 23% (p < .05), from 60 ± 4 days during 1951-1965 to 47 ± 4 days during 2002-2016. Importantly, the average start date of the TRP did not vary significantly over the study period (March 2-5, DOY = 61-64), which could be explained by sufficient chilling over the study period in the regions considered. The advanced leaf-out date with unchanged beginning of the TRP can be explained by the faster accumulation of the required heat due to climatic warming, which overcompensated for the retarding effect of shortening daylength on bud development. This study shows that climate warming has not yet affected the mean TRP starting date in the study region, implying that phenology modules in global land surface models might be reliable assuming a fixed TRP starting date at least for the temperate central Europe. Field warming experiments do, however, remain necessary to test to what extent the length of TRP will continue to shorten and whether the starting date will remain stable under future climate conditions.

Determinants and consequences of plant-insect phenological synchrony for a non-native herbivore on a deciduous conifer: implications for invasion success

Phenological synchrony between herbivorous insects and host plants is an important determinant of insect distribution and abundance. Non-native insects often experience novel climates, photoperiods, and host plants. How critical time periods of insect life cycles coincide with-or diverge from-phenological windows of host plant suitability could affect invasion success and the dynamics of outbreaks. Larch casebearer is an invasive defoliator that has recently undergone anomalous outbreaks on eastern larch in North America. We conducted growth chamber, greenhouse, and field studies to quantify the spring phenological window for larch casebearer on eastern larch and importance of phenological synchrony for casebearer development and survival. We constructed degree-day models of spring activity for both species and investigated responses of casebearers to early and delayed activation relative to bud break. Both species had lower developmental thresholds of  ~ 5 °C, but mean activation of casebearers occurred 245 degree-days after bud break by eastern larch. In addition to forcing temperatures, phenologies of eastern larch and casebearer larvae were significantly influenced by chilling and photoperiod, respectively. Larvae were robust to both starvation and delayed activation; days between larval activation and bud break (range: 0-58 days) had no influence on larval development and survival to adulthood. Disparate plant-insect responses to environmental cues and robustness of casebearers to changes in phenology result in a wide phenological window that likely has contributed to the insect's broad distribution in eastern North America. Changes in phenological synchrony, however, do not appear to have facilitated recent outbreaks of larch casebearer on eastern larch.

Daylength helps temperate deciduous trees to leaf-out at the optimal time

Global warming has led to substantially earlier spring leaf-out in temperate-zone deciduous trees. The interactive effects of temperature and daylength underlying this warming response remain unclear. However, they need to be accurately represented by earth system models to improve projections of the carbon and energy balances of temperate forests and the associated feedbacks to the Earth's climate system. We studied the control of leaf-out by daylength and temperature using data from six tree species across 2,377 European phenological network (www.pep725.eu), each with at least 30 years of observations. We found that, in addition to and independent of the known effect of chilling, daylength correlates negatively with the heat requirement for leaf-out in all studied species. In warm springs when leaf-out is early, days are short and the heat requirement is higher than in an average spring, which mitigates the warming-induced advancement of leaf-out and protects the tree against precocious leaf-out and the associated risks of late frosts. In contrast, longer-than-average daylength (in cold springs when leaf-out is late) reduces the heat requirement for leaf-out, ensuring that trees do not leaf-out too late and miss out on large amounts of solar energy. These results provide the first large-scale empirical evidence of a widespread daylength effect on the temperature sensitivity of leaf-out phenology in temperate deciduous trees.

Rethinking false spring risk

Temperate plants are at risk of being exposed to late spring freezes. These freeze events-often called false springs-are one of the strongest factors determining temperate plants species range limits and can impose high ecological and economic damage. As climate change may alter the prevalence and severity of false springs, our ability to forecast such events has become more critical, and it has led to a growing body of research. Many false spring studies largely simplify the myriad complexities involved in assessing false spring risks and damage. While these studies have helped advance the field and may provide useful estimates at large scales, studies at the individual to community levels must integrate more complexity for accurate predictions of plant damage from late spring freezes. Here, we review current metrics of false spring, and how, when, and where plants are most at risk of freeze damage. We highlight how life stage, functional group, species differences in morphology and phenology, and regional climatic differences contribute to the damage potential of false springs. More studies aimed at understanding relationships among species tolerance and avoidance strategies, climatic regimes, and the environmental cues that underlie spring phenology would improve predictions at all biological levels. An integrated approach to assessing past and future spring freeze damage would provide novel insights into fundamental plant biology and offer more robust predictions as climate change progresses, which are essential for mitigating the adverse ecological and economic effects of false springs.

The impact of rising temperatures on water balance and phenology of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) stands

In this article, we outline the set-up and the application of an eco-hydrological box model, with the aim to describe the water balance of deciduous (Fagus Sylvatica L.) forest stands. The water balance model (WBM) uses standard meteorological parameters as input variables and runs on a daily time step. It consists of two modules. The aboveground module (1) comprises routines for fog precipitation generation, precipitation interception and snowfall/snowmelt dynamics. Covered belowground processes (2) are bypass flow, percolation, soil evaporation and transpiration, where the latter two processes are considered separately. Preceding to the WBM, a routine is introduced, specifying the intra-annual foliage dynamics of beech. Emphasis is also laid on the inter-annual variation of beech phenology. Leaf sprouting and leaf senescence are calculated as functions of day-length and air temperature. The WBM was applied to four European beech dominated forest stands in the northeastern part of Austria. They are located on a gradient of declining annual precipitation (from west to east). The two easterly sites are located close to the (dry) limit of the natural distribution of beech. Records of soil moisture were used for the adjustment of 26 parameters. On all sites the calibration process (simulated annealing) delivered good predictions of soil moisture (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency≥ 0.925). Then, the obtained parameterization was used to apply different scenarios of global warming. The temperature was increased step-wisely up to 4 °C. All scenarios were run (1) with present phenological conditions and (2) with phenology responding to higher temperatures. This way, we wanted to assign the effect of higher temperatures and longer growing seasons on the water dynamics of the forest stands. A warming of 1 °C corresponded roughly to an elongation of the growing season of 4.5 days, where the start of the growing season was affected more strongly than the end. Apparently, higher temperatures led to drier soils. The strongest change was observed in early summer, also amplified by an earlier start of the growing season. Rising temperatures led to lower export fluxes of liquid water, simultaneously increasing evapotranspiration (ET). The gain in ET was almost entirely assignable to increased soil evaporation. Drier soils led to a sharp depression of transpiration during summer months. This decline was compensated by the effect of elongated growing seasons. The risk of severe drought was increased by higher temperatures, but here the contribution of growing season length was negligible. Drier soils seem to hamper the stands’ productivity. For all warming scenarios, the estimated increase of the gross primary production, caused by longer periods of assimilation, is nullified by the effect of soil water deficit in mid-summer.

Intraspecific differences in spring leaf phenology in relation to tree size in temperate deciduous trees

Spring leaf phenology strongly influences plant productivity in temperate deciduous forests. Many studies have detected earlier budburst and leaf maturation in smaller trees within species, and have discussed the adaptive significance of increasing carbon gain before canopy closure in small trees. However, some previous studies have found the opposite pattern, and the physiological and environmental bases for this discrepancy are incompletely understood. We investigated the spring leaf phenology of 11 deciduous species in a cool-temperate forest in Japan for 2 years with different amounts of snowfall, and also gathered data on the day of budburst from multiple studies to assess whether and how the timing of budburst is related to tree size, phylogeny, temperature and annual snowfall of study sites. We found that differences in the timing of budburst and leaf maturation between saplings (<1 m height) and short trees (1-10 m height) are larger than those between short trees and tall trees (>10 m height), resulting in non-linear relationships between timing and height in most species. Cumulative degree-days to the day of budburst were smaller in saplings than in tall trees, probably because saplings are selected to outcompete the other individuals/species to become established. Moreover, phylogenetic relatedness did not explain the difference in spring leaf phenology between saplings and tall trees in the literature survey. In addition, our literature survey showed that budburst occurred earlier in saplings of most species in sites with less snowfall, whereas budburst occurred earlier in tall trees at sites with heavy snowfall. These results suggest that the opposite patterns found in some studies may be due to (i) differences in the target size, as saplings show larger phenological discrepancies than short and tall trees, and (ii) the microclimate experienced by the tree, as sites with heavy snow show delayed sapling phenology.

Short photoperiod reduces the temperature sensitivity of leaf-out in saplings of Fagus sylvatica but not in horse chestnut

Leaf phenology is one of the most reliable bioindicators of ongoing global warming in temperate and boreal zones because it is highly sensitive to temperature variation. A large number of studies have reported advanced spring leaf-out due to global warming, yet the temperature sensitivity of leaf-out has significantly decreased in temperate deciduous tree species over the past three decades. One of the possible mechanisms is that photoperiod is limiting further advance to protect the leaves against potential damaging frosts. However, the "photoperiod limitation" hypothesis remains poorly investigated and experimentally tested. Here, we conducted a photoperiod- and temperature-manipulation experiment in climate chambers on two common deciduous species in Europe: Fagus sylvatica (European beech, a typically late flushing species) and Aesculus hippocastanum (horse chestnut, a typically early flushing species). In agreement with previous studies, we found that the warming significantly advanced the leaf-out dates by 4.3 and 3.7 days/°C for beech and horse chestnut saplings, respectively. However, shorter photoperiod significantly reduced the temperature sensitivity of beech only (3.0 days/°C) by substantially increasing the heat requirement to avoid leafing-out too early. Interestingly, the photoperiod limitation only occurs below a certain daylength (photoperiod threshold) when the warming increased above 4°C for beech trees. In contrast, for chestnut, no photoperiod threshold was found even when the ambient air temperature was warmed by 5°C. Given the species-specific photoperiod effect on leaf phenology, the sequence of the leaf-out timing among forest tree species may change under future climate warming conditions. Nonphotoperiodic species may benefit from warmer springs by starting the growing season earlier than photoperiodic sensitive species, modifying forest ecosystem structure and functions, but this photoperiod limitation needs to be further investigated experimentally in numerous species.

Compensatory Growth of Scots Pine Seedlings Mitigates Impacts of Multiple Droughts Within and Across Years

Tree seedling resistance to and recovery from abiotic stressors such as drought and warming are crucial for forest regeneration and persistence. Selection of more resilient provenances and their use in forest management programs might alleviate pressures of climate change on forest ecosystems. Scots pine forests in particular have suffered frequent drought-induced mortality, suggesting high vulnerability to extreme events. Here, we conducted an experiment using potted Scots pine seedlings from ten provenances of its south-western distribution range to investigate provenance-specific impacts of multiple drought events. Seedlings were grown under ambient and elevated temperatures for 1.5 years and were subjected to consecutive droughts during spring and summer. Growth (height, diameter, and needle) and spring phenology were monitored during the whole study period and complemented by biomass assessments (bud, needle, wood, and needle/wood ratio) as well as measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence and of needle stable carbon isotope ratio. Phenology, growth and biomass parameters as well as carbon isotope ratio and their (direct) responses to reoccurring droughts differed between provenances, indicating genotypic adaptation. Seedling growth was plastic during drought with intra- and inter-annual compensatory growth after drought stress release (carryover effects), however, not fully compensating the initial impact. For (smaller) seedlings from southern/drier origins, sometimes greater drought resistance was observed which diminished under warmer conditions in the greenhouse. Warming increased diameter growth and advanced phenological development, which was (partly) delayed by drought in 2013, but advanced in 2014. Earlier phenology was linked to higher growth in 2013, but interestingly later phenology had positive effects on wood and needle biomass when subjected to drought. Lastly, stable carbon isotope ratios indicated a clear drought response of carbon assimilation. Drought-induced reduction of the photosystem II efficiency was only observed under warmer conditions but showed compensation under ambient temperatures. Besides these direct drought impacts, also interactive effects of previous drought events were shown, either reinforcing or sometimes attenuating the actual impact. Thus, depending on amount and timing of events, Scots pine seedlings, particularly from southern origins, might be well adapted and resilient to drought stress and should be considered when discussing assisted migration under changing climatic conditions.

Phenological shifts in conifer species stressed by spruce budworm defoliation

Synchrony between host budburst and insect emergence greatly influences the time window for insect development and survival. A few alterations of bud phenology have been reported under defoliation without clear consensus regarding the direction of effects, i.e., advance or delay. Here, we compared budburst phenology between conifers in defoliation and control treatments, and measured carbon allocation as a potential mechanistic explanation of changes in phenology. In a 2-year greenhouse experiment, saplings of balsam fir, black spruce and white spruce of two different provenances (north and south) were subjected to either control (no larvae) or natural defoliation treatment (larvae added) by spruce budworm. Bud and instar phenology, primary and secondary growth, defoliation and non-structural carbohydrates were studied during the growing season. No differences were observed in bud phenology during the first year of defoliation. After 1 year of defoliation, bud phenology advanced by 6-7 days in black spruce and balsam fir and by 3.5 days in white spruce compared with the control. Because of this earlier bud break, apical and shoot growth exceeded 50% of its final length before mature instar defoliation occurred, which decreased the overall level of damage. A sugar-mediated response, via earlier starch breakdown, and higher sugar availability to buds explains the advanced budburst in defoliated saplings. The advanced phenological response to defoliation was consistent across the conifer species and provenances except for one species × provenance combination. Allocation of carbon to buds and shoots growth at the expense of wood growth in the stem and reserve accumulation represents a shift in the physiological resources priorities to ensure tree survival. This advancement in bud phenology could be considered as a physiological response to defoliation based on carbohydrate needs for primary growth, rather than a resistance trait to spruce budworm.

Daily Maximum Temperatures Induce Lagged Effects on Leaf Unfolding in Temperate Woody Species Across Large Elevational Gradients

The timing of leaf unfolding in temperate woody species is predominantly controlled by the seasonal course of temperature in late winter and early spring. However, quantifying lagged temperature effects on spring phenology is still challenging. Here, we aimed at investigating lagged and potentially non-linear effects of daily maximum temperatures on the probability of leaf unfolding in temperate woody species growing across large elevational gradients. We analyzed 5280 observations of leaf-out time of four tree species (European beech, horse chestnut, European larch, Norway spruce) and one shrub species (common hazel) that were recorded by volunteers over 40 years at 42 locations in Switzerland. We used a case-crossover sampling design to match leaf-out dates with control dates (i.e., dates before or after leaf-out), and analyzed these data with conditional logistic regression accounting for lagged temperature effects over 60 days. Multivariate meta-analyses were used to synthesize lagged temperature and elevational effects on leaf unfolding across multiple phenological stations. Temperature effects on the probability of leaf unfolding were largest at relatively short lags (i.e., within ca. 10 days) and decreased with increasing lags. Short- to mid-term effects (i.e., within ca. 10 to 20 days) were larger for late-leafing species known to be photoperiod-sensitive (beech, Norway spruce). Temperature effects increased for the broadleaved species (horse chestnut, hazel, beech) with decreasing elevation, particularly within ca. 10 to 40 days, i.e., leaf unfolding occurs more rapidly at low elevations for a given daily maximum temperature. Our novel findings provide evidence of cumulative and long-term temperature effects on leaf unfolding, whereby the efficiency of relatively high temperatures to trigger leaf-out becomes higher shortly before bud burst. These lagged associations between temperature and leaf unfolding improve our understanding of phenological responses across temperate woody species with differing ecological requirements that occur along elevational gradients.

Experiments Are Necessary in Process-Based Tree Phenology Modelling

In boreal and temperate trees, air temperature is a major environmental factor regulating the timing of spring phenological events, such as vegetative bud burst, through underlying physiological processes. This has been established by experimental research, and mathematical process-based tree phenology models have been developed based on the results. The models have often been applied when assessing the effects of climate change. Currently, there is an increasing trend to develop process-based tree phenology models using only observational phenological records from natural conditions. We point out that this method runs a high risk of producing models that do not simulate the real physiological processes in the trees and discuss experimental designs facilitating the development of biologically realistic process-based models for tree spring phenology.

Long-term changes in the impacts of global warming on leaf phenology of four temperate tree species

Contrary to the generally advanced spring leaf unfolding under global warming, the effects of the climate warming on autumn leaf senescence are highly variable with advanced, delayed, and unchanged patterns being all reported. Using one million records of leaf phenology from four dominant temperate species in Europe, we investigated the temperature sensitivities of spring leaf unfolding and autumn leaf senescence (S_T , advanced or delayed days per degree Celsius). The S_T of spring phenology in all of the four examined species showed an increase and decrease during 1951-1980 and 1981-2013, respectively. The decrease in the S_T during 1981-2013 appears to be caused by reduced accumulation of chilling units. As with spring phenology, the S_T of leaf senescence of early successional and exotic species started to decline since 1980. In contrast, for late successional species, the S_T of autumn senescence showed an increase for the entire study period from 1951 to 2013. Moreover, the impacts of rising temperature associated with global warming on spring leaf unfolding were stronger than those on autumn leaf senescence. The timing of leaf senescence was positively correlated with the timing of leaf unfolding during 1951-1980. However, as climate warming continued, the differences in the responses between spring and autumn phenology gradually increased, so that the correlation was no more significant during 1981-2013. Our results further suggest that since 2000, due to the decreased temperature sensitivity of leaf unfolding the length of the growing season has not increased any more. These finding needs to be addressed in vegetation models used for assessing the effects of climate change.

Yield potential definition of the chilling requirement reveals likely underestimation of the risk of climate change on winter chill accumulation

Evaluation of chilling requirements of cultivars of temperate fruit trees provides key information to assess regional suitability, according to winter chill, for both industry expansion and ongoing profitability as climate change progresses. Traditional methods for calculating chilling requirements use climate-controlled chambers and define chilling requirements (CR) using a fixed bud burst percentage, usually close to 50% (CR-50%). However, this CR-50% definition may estimate chilling requirements that lead to flowering percentages that are lower than required for orchards to be commercially viable. We used sweet cherry to analyse the traditional method for calculating chilling requirements (CR-50%) and compared the results with a more restrictive method, where the chilling requirement was defined by a 90% bud break level (CR_m-90%). For sweet cherry, this higher requirement of flowering success (90% as opposed to 50%) better represents grower production needs as a greater number of flowers leads to greater potential yield. To investigate the future risk of insufficient chill based on alternate calculations of the chilling requirement, climate projections of winter chill suitability across Europe were calculated using CR-50% and CR_m-90%. Regional suitability across the landscape was highly dependent on the method used to define chilling requirements, and differences were found for both cold and mild winter areas. Our results suggest that bud break percentage levels used in the assessment of chilling requirements for sweet cherry influence production risks of current and future production areas. The use of traditional methods to determine chilling requirements can result in an underestimation of productivity chilling requirements for tree crops like sweet cherry which rely on a high conversion of flowers to mature fruit to obtain profitable yields. This underestimation may have negative consequences for the fruit industry as climate change advances with climate risk underestimated.

Checking the Consistency of Volunteered Phenological Observations While Analysing Their Synchrony

The increasing availability of volunteered geographic information (VGI) enables novel studies in many scientific domains. However, inconsistent VGI can negatively affect these studies. This paper describes a workflow that checks the consistency of Volunteered Phenological Observations (VPOs) while considering the synchrony of observations (i.e., the temporal dispersion of a phenological event). The geographic coordinates, day of the year (DOY) of the observed event, and the accumulation of daily temperature until that DOY were used to: (1) spatially group VPOs by connecting observations that are near to each other, (2) define consistency constraints, (3) check the consistency of VPOs by evaluating the defined constraints, and (4) optimize the constraints by analysing the effect of inconsistent VPOs on the synchrony models derived from the observations. This workflow was tested using VPOs collected in the Netherlands during the period 2003–2015. We found that the average percentage of inconsistent observations was low to moderate (ranging from 1% for wood anemone and pedunculate oak to 15% for cow parsley species). This indicates that volunteers provide reliable phenological information. We also found a significant correlation between the standard deviation of DOY of the observed events and the accumulation of daily temperature (with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.78 for lesser celandine, and 0.60 for pedunculate oak). This confirmed that colder days in late winter and early spring lead to synchronous flowering and leafing onsets. Our results highlighted the potential of synchrony information and geographical context for checking the consistency of phenological VGI. Other domains using VGI can adapt this geocomputational workflow to check the consistency of their data, and hence the robustness of their analyses.

Environmental controls on light inhibition of respiration and leaf and canopy daytime carbon exchange in a temperate deciduous forest

Uncertainty in the estimation of daytime ecosystem carbon cycling due to the light inhibition of leaf respiration and photorespiration, and how these small fluxes vary through the growing season in the field, remains a confounding element in calculations of gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration. Our study focuses on how phenology, short-term temperature changes and canopy position influence leaf-level carbon exchange in Quercus rubra L. (red oak) at Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts, USA. Using leaf measurements and eddy covariance, we also quantify the effect of light inhibition on estimates of daytime respiration at leaf and ecosystem scales. Measured rates of leaf respiration in the light and dark were highest in the early growing season and declined in response to 10-day prior air temperatures (P < 0.01), evidence of within-season thermal acclimation. Leaf respiration was significantly inhibited by light (27.1 ± 2.82% inhibited across all measurements), and this inhibition varied with the month of measurement; greater inhibition was observed in mid-summer leaves compared with early- and late-season leaves. Increases in measurement temperature led to higher rates of respiration and photorespiration, though with a less pronounced positive effect on photosynthesis; as a result, carbon-use efficiency declined with increasing leaf temperature. Over the growing season when we account for seasonally variable light inhibition and basal respiration rates, our modeling approaches found a cumulative 12.9% reduction of leaf-level respiration and a 12.8% reduction of canopy leaf respiration, resulting in a 3.7% decrease in total ecosystem respiration compared with estimates that do not account for light inhibition in leaves. Our study sheds light on the environmental controls of the light inhibition of daytime leaf respiration and how integrating this phenomenon and other small fluxes can reduce uncertainty in current and future projections of terrestrial carbon cycling.

Global warming reduces leaf-out and flowering synchrony among individuals

The temporal overlap of phenological stages, phenological synchrony, crucially influences ecosystem functioning. For flowering, among-individual synchrony influences gene flow. For leaf-out, it affects interactions with herbivores and competing plants. If individuals differ in their reaction to the ongoing change in global climate, this should affect population-level synchrony. Here, we use climate-manipulation experiments, Pan-European long-term (>15 years) observations, and common garden monitoring data on up to 72 woody and herbaceous species to study the effects of increasing temperatures on the extent of leaf-out and flowering synchrony within populations. Warmer temperatures reduce in situ leaf-out and flowering synchrony by up to 55%, and experiments on European beech provide a mechanism for how individual differences in day-length and/or chilling sensitivity may explain this finding. The rapid loss of reproductive and vegetative synchrony in European plants predicts changes in their gene flow and trophic interactions, but community-wide consequences remain largely unknown.

Editorial note

This article has been through an editorial process in which the authors decide how to respond to the issues raised during peer review. The Reviewing Editor's assessment is that all the issues have been addressed (see decision letter).

Effectiveness of winter temperatures for satisfying chilling requirements for reproductive budburst of red alder (Alnus rubra)

Background

Experiencing an adequate amount of cold temperatures over winter is necessary for many temperate tree species to break dormancy and flower in spring. Thus, changes in winter and spring temperatures associated with climate change may influence when trees break dormancy and flower in the future. There have been several experimental studies that have quantified the effectiveness of cold temperatures for chilling requirements for vegetative budburst of temperate trees; however, there are few experimental studies addressing the chilling requirements for reproductive budburst of trees, as it is difficult to place reproductively mature trees in temperature-controlled environments.

Methods

To identify how changing temperatures associated with climate change may impact reproductive phenology, we completed a temperature-controlled growth chamber experiment using cuttings of reproductive branches of red alder (Alnus rubra), one of the most widespread hardwood tree species of the Pacific Northwest, USA. The purpose of this study was to examine how colder (4 °C) and warmer (9 °C) winter temperature regimes influenced the timing of reproductive budburst of red alder cuttings in spring. We also compared the date of budburst of cuttings to that of branches from intact trees.

Results

We found that cuttings flowered earlier after pretreatment with a 4 °C winter temperature regime than after a 9 °C winter temperature regime. We found no significant differences between the timing of male budburst of cuttings exposed to ambient conditions compared to male budburst of branches from intact trees. We used our experimental data to estimate a “possibility-line” that shows the accumulated chilling and forcing temperatures necessary prior to reproductive budburst of red alder.

Discussion

This study provides a preliminary indication that warmer winters with climate change may not be as effective as colder winters for satisfying chilling temperature requirements of a Northwest hardwood tree species.

Phenological sequences: how early-season events define those that follow

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Plant phenology is a critical trait, as the timings of phenophases such as budburst, leafout, flowering, and fruiting, are important to plant fitness. Despite much study about when individual phenophases occur and how they may shift with climate change, little is known about how multiple phenophases relate to one another across an entire growing season. We test the extent to which early phenological stages constrain later ones, throughout a growing season, across 25 angiosperm tree species.

METHODS

We observed phenology (budburst, leafout, flowering, fruiting, and senescence) of 118 individual trees across 25 species, from April through December 2015.

KEY RESULTS

We found that early phenological events weakly constrain most later events, with the strongest constraints seen between consecutive stages. In contrast, interphase duration was a much stronger predictor of phenology, especially for reproductive events, suggesting that the development time of flowers and fruits may constrain the phenology of these events.

CONCLUSIONS

Much of the variation in later phenological events can be explained by the timing of earlier events and by interphase durations. This highlights that a shift in one phenophase may often have cascading effects on later phases. Accurate forecasts of climate change impacts should therefore include multiple phenophases within and across years.

Cold Hardiness in Trees: A Mini-Review

Significant advances have been made in our understanding of the regulation of cold hardiness. The existence of numerous biophysical and biochemical adaptive mechanisms in perennial woody plants and the complexity their regulation has made the development of methods for managing and improving cold hardiness in perennial woody plants has been very difficult. This may be partially attributed to viewing cold hardiness as a single dimensional response, rather than as a complex phenomenon, involving different mechanisms (avoidance and tolerance), different stages (mid-winter vs. late winter), and having an intimate overlap with the genetic regulation of dormancy. In particular separating the molecular regulation of cold hardiness from growth processes has been challenging. ICE and C-repeat binding factor (CBF), transcription factors (Inducer of CBF expression and CRT-binding factor) have been shown to be an important aspect in the regulation of cold-induced gene expression. Evidence has emerged, however, that they are also intimately involved in the regulation of growth, flowering, dormancy, and stomatal development. This evidence includes the presence of CBF binding motifs in genes regulating these processes, or through cross-talk between the pathways that regulate them. Recent changes in climate that have resulted in erratic episodes of unseasonal warming followed by more seasonal patterns of low temperatures has also highlighted the need to better understand the genetic and molecular regulation of deacclimation, a topic of research that is only more recently being addressed. Environmentally-induced epigenetic regulation of stress responses and seasonal processes such as cold acclimation, deacclimation, and dormancy have been documented but are still poorly understood. Advances in the ability to efficiently generate large DNA and RNA datasets and genetic transformation technologies have greatly increased our ability to explore the regulation of gene expression and explore genetic diversity. Greater knowledge of the interplay between epigenetic and genetic regulation of cold hardiness, along with the application of advanced genetic analyses, such as genome-wide-association-studies (GWAS), are needed to develop strategies for addressing the complex processes associated with cold hardiness in woody plants. A cautionary note is also indicated regarding the time-scale needed to examine and interpret plant response to freezing temperatures if progress is to be made in developing effective approaches for manipulating and improving cold hardiness.

Genetic differentiation in the timing of budburst in Fagus crenata in relation to temperature and photoperiod

Climate change is expected to influence plant productivity particularly through changes in the timing of budburst. Nonetheless, knowledge about the intraspecific variation of the timing of budburst and its relationship with climate is insufficient for most tree species. Based on the common garden experiments of Fagus crenata, we investigated the interrelationships between the day of budburst, cumulative degree-days (temperature sum), chilling duration, and photoperiod at the timing of budburst for the trees of different combinations of 11 sites of seed origin and seven experimental sites in Japan. We found that the relationship between the latitude of experimental sites and the timing of budburst differed for the trees of different latitudes of origins. The timing of budburst was earlier for the trees of more northern populations throughout the latitudes of experimental sites. Variation in the timing of budburst among the trees of different seed origins was smaller for more northern experimental sites. Such patterns were caused by directional changes in the relationships between temperature sum, chilling duration, and photoperiod among the trees of different origins: the asymptotes of the curvilinear relationship between chilling duration and temperature sum, chilling duration and photoperiod, and temperature sum and photoperiod, decreased for more northern populations. With the northward expansion of species distribution, the responses of budburst to climate probably changed genetically in such ways in this species. Our results suggest that intraspecific variations in the relationships between the timing of budburst and associated meteorological factors inevitably influence the overall pattern of the timing of budburst at the geographic scale, and the timing of budburst might deviate from predictions when intraspecific variations are not considered.

Temperature and photoperiod drive spring phenology across all species in a temperate forest community

Accurate predictions of spring plant phenology with climate change are critical for projections of growing seasons, plant communities and a number of ecosystem services, including carbon storage. Progress towards prediction, however, has been slow because the major cues known to drive phenology - temperature (including winter chilling and spring forcing) and photoperiod - generally covary in nature and may interact, making accurate predictions of plant responses to climate change complex and nonlinear. Alternatively, recent work suggests many species may be dominated by one cue, which would make predictions much simpler. Here, we manipulated all three cues across 28 woody species from two North American forests. All species responded to all cues examined. Chilling exerted a strong effect, especially on budburst (-15.8 d), with responses to forcing and photoperiod greatest for leafout (-19.1 and -11.2 d, respectively). Interactions between chilling and forcing suggest that each cue may compensate somewhat for the other. Cues varied across species, leading to staggered leafout within each community and supporting the idea that phenology is a critical aspect of species' temporal niches. Our results suggest that predicting the spring phenology of communities will be difficult, as all species we studied could have complex, nonlinear responses to future warming.

Ecosystem warming extends vegetation activity but heightens vulnerability to cold temperatures

Shifts in vegetation phenology are a key example of the biological effects of climate change^1-3. However, there is substantial uncertainty about whether these temperature-driven trends will continue, or whether other factors-for example, photoperiod-will become more important as warming exceeds the bounds of historical variability^4,5. Here we use phenological transition dates derived from digital repeat photography⁶ to show that experimental whole-ecosystem warming treatments⁷ of up to +9 °C linearly correlate with a delayed autumn green-down and advanced spring green-up of the dominant woody species in a boreal Picea-Sphagnum bog. Results were confirmed by direct observation of both vegetative and reproductive phenology of these and other bog plant species, and by multiple years of observations. There was little evidence that the observed responses were constrained by photoperiod. Our results indicate a likely extension of the period of vegetation activity by 1-2 weeks under a 'CO₂ stabilization' climate scenario (+2.6 ± 0.7 °C), and 3-6 weeks under a 'high-CO₂ emission' scenario (+5.9 ± 1.1 °C), by the end of the twenty-first century. We also observed severe tissue mortality in the warmest enclosures after a severe spring frost event. Failure to cue to photoperiod resulted in precocious green-up and a premature loss of frost hardiness⁸, which suggests that vulnerability to spring frost damage will increase in a warmer world^9,10. Vegetation strategies that have evolved to balance tradeoffs associated with phenological temperature tracking may be optimal under historical climates, but these strategies may not be optimized for future climate regimes. These in situ experimental results are of particular importance because boreal forests have both a circumpolar distribution and a key role in the global carbon cycle¹¹.

Pollination in a new climate: Assessing the potential influence of flower temperature variation on insect pollinator behaviour

Climate change has the potential to enhance or disrupt biological systems, but currently, little is known about how organism plasticity may facilitate adaptation to localised climate variation. The bee-flower relationship is an exemplar signal-receiver system that may provide important insights into the complexity of ecological interactions in situations like this. For example, several studies on bee temperature preferences show that bees prefer to collect warm nectar from flowers at low ambient temperatures, but switch their preferences to cooler flowers at ambient temperatures above about 30° C. We used temperature sensor thermal probes to measure the temperature of outdoor flowers of 30 plant species in the Southern regions of the Australian mainland, to understand how different species could modulate petal temperature in response to changes in ambient temperature and, potentially, influence the decision-making of bees in the flowering plant's favour. We found that flower petal temperatures respond in different ways to changing ambient temperature: linearly increasing or decreasing relative to the ambient temperature, dynamically changing in a non-linear manner, or varying their temperature along with the ambient conditions. For example, our investigation of the difference between ambient temperature and petal temperature (ΔT), and ambient temperature, revealed a non-linear relationship for Erysimum linifolium and Polygala grandiflora that seems suited to bee temperature preferences. The temperature profiles of species like Hibertia vestita and H. obtusifolia appear to indicate that they do not have a cooling mechanism. These species may therefore be less attractive to bee pollinators in changing climatic conditions with ambient temperatures increasingly above 30° C. This may be to the species' detriment when insect-pollinator mediated selection is considered. However, we found no evidence that flower visual characteristics used by bees to identify flowers at close range, such as colour or shape, were straightforward modulators of floral temperature. We could not identify any clear link to phylogenetic history and temperature modulation either. Mapping our test flower distribution on the Australian continent however, indicates a potential clustering that suggests different flower responses may constitute adaptations to local conditions. Our study proposes a framework for modelling the potential effects of climate change and floral temperature on flower pollination dynamics at local and global scales.

Local environment, not local adaptation, drives leaf-out phenology in common gardens along an elevational gradient in Acadia National Park, Maine

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Climate-driven changes in phenology are substantially affecting ecological relationships and ecosystem processes. The role of variation among species has received particular attention; for example, variation among species' phenological responses to climate can disrupt trophic interactions and can influence plant performance. Variation within species in phenological responses to climate, however, has received much less attention, despite its potential role in ecological interactions and local adaptation to climate change.

METHODS

We constructed three common gardens across an elevation gradient on Cadillac Mountain in Acadia National Park, Maine, to test population-level responses in leaf-out phenology in a reciprocal transplant experiment. The experiment included three native species: low bush blueberry (Vaccinium angustifolium), sheep's laurel (Kalmia angustifolia), and three-toothed cinquefoil (Sibbaldiopsis tridentata).

KEY RESULTS

Evidence for local adaptation of phenological response to temperature varied among the species, but was weak for all three. Rather, variation in phenological response to temperature appeared to be driven by local microclimate at each garden site and year-to-year variation in temperature.

CONCLUSIONS

Population-level adaptations in leaf-out phenology appear to be relatively unimportant for these species in Acadia National Park, perhaps a reflection of strong genetic mixing across elevations, or weak differences in selection on phenological response to spring temperatures at different elevations. These results concur with other observational data in Acadia and highlight the utility of experimental approaches to understand the importance of annual and local site variation in affecting phenology both among and within plant species.

Assessing frost damages using dynamic models in walnut trees: exposure rather than vulnerability controls frost risks

Frost damages develop when exposure overtakes frost vulnerability. Frost risk assessment therefore needs dynamic simulation of frost hardiness using temperature and photoperiod in interaction with developmental stage. Two models, including or not the effect of photoperiod, were calibrated using five years of frost hardiness monitoring (2007-2012), in two locations (low and high elevation) for three walnut genotypes with contrasted phenology and maximum hardiness (Juglans regia cv Franquette, J. regia × nigra 'Early' and 'Late'). The photothermal model predicted more accurate values for all genotypes (efficiency = 0.879; Root Mean Standard Error Predicted (RMSEP) = 2.55 °C) than the thermal model (efficiency = 0.801; RMSEP = 3.24 °C). Predicted frost damages were strongly correlated to minimum temperature of the freezing events (ρ = -0.983) rather than actual frost hardiness (ρ = -0.515), or ratio of phenological stage completion (ρ = 0.336). Higher frost risks are consequently predicted during winter, at high elevation, whereas spring is only risky at low elevation in early genotypes exhibiting faster dehardening rate. However, early frost damages, although of lower value, may negatively affect fruit production the subsequent year (R²  = 0.381, P = 0.057). These results highlight the interacting pattern between frost exposure and vulnerability at different scales and the necessity of intra-organ studies to understand the time course of frost vulnerability in flower buds along the winter.