British Regional Heart Study: cardiovascular risk factors in middle-aged men in 24 towns

High diet quality is associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in older men

Although diet quality is implicated in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, few studies have investigated the relation between diet quality and the risks of CVD and mortality in older adults. This study examined the prospective associations between dietary scores and risk of CVD and all-cause mortality in older British men. A total of 3328 men (aged 60-79 y) from the British Regional Heart Study, free from CVD at baseline, were followed up for 11.3 y for CVD and mortality. Baseline food-frequency questionnaire data were used to generate 2 dietary scores: the Healthy Diet Indicator (HDI), based on WHO dietary guidelines, and the Elderly Dietary Index (EDI), based on a Mediterranean-style dietary intake, with higher scores indicating greater compliance with dietary recommendations. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses assessed associations between quartiles of HDI and EDI and risk of all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, CVD events, and coronary heart disease (CHD) events. During follow-up, 933 deaths, 327 CVD deaths, 582 CVD events, and 307 CHD events occurred. Men in the highest compared with the lowest EDI quartile had significantly lower risks of all-cause mortality (HR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.60, 0.94; P-trend = 0.03), CVD mortality (HR: 0.63; 95% CI: 0.42, 0.94; P-trend = 0.03), and CHD events (HR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.45, 0.97; P-trend = 0.05) but not CVD events (HR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.60, 1.05; P-trend = 0.16) after adjustment for sociodemographic, behavioral, and cardiovascular risk factors. The HDI was not significantly associated with any of the outcomes. The EDI appears to be more useful than the HDI for assessing diet quality in relation to CVD and morality risk in older men. Encouraging older adults to adhere to the guidelines inherent in the EDI criteria may have public health benefits.

Sarcopenic obesity and risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality: a population-based cohort study of older men

Objectives

To examine associations between sarcopenia, obesity, and sarcopenic obesity and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality in older men.

Design

Prospective cohort study.

Setting

British Regional Heart Study.

Participants

Men aged 60–79 years (n = 4,252).

Measurements

Baseline waist circumference (WC) and midarm muscle circumference (MAMC) measurements were used to classify participants into four groups: sarcopenic, obese, sarcopenic obese, or optimal WC and MAMC. The cohort was followed for a mean of 11.3 years for CVD and all-cause mortality. Cox regression analyses assessed associations between sarcopenic obesity groups and all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, CVD events, and coronary heart disease (CHD) events.

Results

There were 1,314 deaths, 518 CVD deaths, 852 CVD events, and 458 CHD events during follow-up. All-cause mortality risk was significantly greater in sarcopenic (HR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.22–1.63) and obese (HR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.03–1.42) men than in the optimal reference group, with the highest risk in sarcopenic obese (HR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.35–2.18), after adjustment for lifestyle characteristics. Risk of CVD mortality was significantly greater in sarcopenic and obese but not sarcopenic obese men. No association was seen between sarcopenic obesity groups and CHD or CVD events.

Conclusion

Sarcopenia and central adiposity were associated with greater cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality. Sarcopenic obese men had the highest risk of all-cause mortality but not CVD mortality. Efforts to promote healthy aging should focus on preventing obesity and maintaining muscle mass.

Low muscle mass in older men: the role of lifestyle, diet and cardiovascular risk factors

OBJECTIVE

To explore associations between low muscle mass and a wide range of lifestyle, dietary and cardiovascular risk factors in older men including metabolic risk factors, markers of inflammation, endothelial dysfunction and coagulation.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

British Regional Heart Study.

PARTICIPANTS

4252 men aged 60-79 years.

MEASUREMENTS

PARTICIPANTS attended a physical examination in 1998-2000, and completed a general questionnaire and a food frequency questionnaire. Low muscle mass was assessed by two measures: midarm muscle circumference (MAMC) and fat-free mass index (FFMI). Associations between risk factors and low muscle mass were analysed using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Physical inactivity, insulin resistance, C-reactive protein, von Willebrand factor and fibrinogen were associated with significantly increased odds of low MAMC and FFMI after adjustment for body mass index, lifestyle characteristics and morbidity. Those with higher percent energy intake from carbohydrates showed decreased odds of low MAMC (OR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.55-0.96) and FFMI (OR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.58-0.99). Other dietary variables, smoking, alcohol intake, D-dimer, interleukin 6 and homocysteine showed no important associations with MAMC and FFMI.

CONCLUSION

Increasing physical activity, consuming a diet with a high proportion of energy from carbohydrates, and taking steps to prevent insulin resistance and reduce inflammation and endothelial dysfunction may help to reduce the risk of low muscle mass in older men.

The obesity paradox in men with coronary heart disease and heart failure: the role of muscle mass and leptin

AIMS

We have investigated the role of muscle mass, natriuretic peptides and adipokines in explaining the obesity paradox.

BACKGROUND

The obesity paradox relates to the association between obesity and increased survival in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) or heart failure (HF).

METHODS

Prospective study of 4046 men aged 60-79 years followed up for a mean period of 11 years, during which 1340 deaths occurred. The men were divided according to the presence of doctor diagnosed CHD and HF: (i) no CHD or HF ii), with CHD (no HF) and (iii) with HF.

RESULTS

Overweight (BMI 25-9.9 kg/m(2)) and obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2)) were associated with lower mortality risk compared to men with normal weight (BMI 18.5-24.9 kg/m(2)) in those with CHD [hazards ratio (HR) 0.71 (0.56,0.91) and 0.77 (0.57,1.04); p=0.04 for trend] and in those with HF [HR 0.57 (0.28,1.16) and 0.41 (0.16,1.09; p=0.04 for trend). Adjustment for muscle mass and NT-proBNP attenuated the inverse association in those with CHD (no HF) [HR 0.78 (0.61,1.01) and 0.96 (0.68,1.36) p=0.60 for trend) but made minor differences to those with HF [p=0.05]. Leptin related positively to mortality in men without HF but inversely to mortality in those with HF; adjustment for leptin abolished the BMI mortality association in men with HF [HR 0.82 (0.31,2.20) and 0.99 (0.27,3.71); p=0.98 for trend].

CONCLUSION

The lower mortality risk associated with excess weight in men with CHD without HF may be due to higher muscle mass. In men with HF, leptin (possibly reflecting cachexia) explain the inverse association.

Caring for women living with HIV: gaps in the evidence

Introduction

In the management of HIV, women and men generally undergo the same treatment pathway, with gender differences being given limited consideration. This is in spite of accumulating evidence that there are a number of potential differences between women and men which may affect response to treatment, pharmacokinetics, toxicities and coping. There are also notable psychological, behavioural, social and structural factors that may have a unique impact on women living with HIV (WLWH). Despite our increasing knowledge of HIV and advances in treatment, there are significant gaps in the data relating specifically to women. One of the factors contributing to this situation is the under-representation of women in all aspects of HIV clinical research. Furthermore, there are clinical issues unique to women, including gynaecologic and breast diseases, menopause-related factors, contraception and other topics related to women's and sexual health.

Methods

Using scoping review methodology, articles from the literature from 1980 to 2012 were identified using appropriate MeSH headings reflecting the clinical status of WLWH, particularly in the areas of clinical management, sexual health, emotional wellbeing and treatment access. Titles and abstracts were scanned to determine whether they were relevant to non-reproductive health in WLWH, and papers meeting inclusion criteria were reviewed.

Results

This review summarizes our current knowledge of the clinical status of WLWH, particularly in the areas of clinical management, sexual health, emotional wellbeing and treatment access. It suggests that there are a number of gender differences in disease and treatment outcomes, and distinct women-specific issues, such as menopause and co-morbidities, that pose significant challenges to the care of WLWH.

Conclusions

Based on a review of this evidence, outstanding questions and areas where further studies are required to determine gender differences in the efficacy and safety of treatment and other clinical and psychological issues specifically affecting WLWH have been identified. Well-controlled and adequately powered clinical studies are essential to help provide answers to these questions and to contribute to activities aimed at improving the health and wellbeing of WLWH.

Population genomics of cardiometabolic traits: design of the University College London-London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine-Edinburgh-Bristol (UCLEB) Consortium

Substantial advances have been made in identifying common genetic variants influencing cardiometabolic traits and disease outcomes through genome wide association studies. Nevertheless, gaps in knowledge remain and new questions have arisen regarding the population relevance, mechanisms, and applications for healthcare. Using a new high-resolution custom single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array (Metabochip) incorporating dense coverage of genomic regions linked to cardiometabolic disease, the University College-London School-Edinburgh-Bristol (UCLEB) consortium of highly-phenotyped population-based prospective studies, aims to: (1) fine map functionally relevant SNPs; (2) precisely estimate individual absolute and population attributable risks based on individual SNPs and their combination; (3) investigate mechanisms leading to altered risk factor profiles and CVD events; and (4) use Mendelian randomisation to undertake studies of the causal role in CVD of a range of cardiovascular biomarkers to inform public health policy and help develop new preventative therapies.

Potential health impacts of hard water

In the past five decades or so evidence has been accumulating about an environmental factor, which appears to be influencing mortality, in particular, cardiovascular mortality, and this is the hardness of the drinking water. In addition, several epidemiological investigations have demonstrated the relation between risk for cardiovascular disease, growth retardation, reproductive failure, and other health problems and hardness of drinking water or its content of magnesium and calcium. In addition, the acidity of the water influences the reabsorption of calcium and magnesium in the renal tubule. Not only, calcium and magnesium, but other constituents also affect different health aspects. Thus, the present review attempts to explore the health effects of hard water and its constituents.

Plasma vitamin C, but not vitamin E, is associated with reduced risk of heart failure in older men

BACKGROUND

Oxidative stress has been implicated in the pathogenesis of heart failure (HF). However, data on the association between antioxidant intakes and circulating levels and risk of incident HF in the older general population are limited. We have examined prospectively the associations between plasma vitamin C and E, dietary intakes of vitamin C and E, and incident HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Prospective study of 3919 men aged 60 to 79 years with no prevalent HF followed up for a mean period of 11 years, in whom there were 263 cases with incident HF. Higher plasma vitamin C level was associated with significantly lower risk of incident HF in both men with and without previous myocardial infarction after adjustment for lifestyle characteristics, diabetes mellitus, blood lipids, blood pressure, and heart rate (hazards ratio [95% confidence interval], 0.81 [0.70, 0.93] and 0.75 [0.59, 0.97] for 1 SD increase in log vitamin C, respectively). Plasma vitamin E and dietary vitamin C intake showed no association with HF. High levels of dietary vitamin E intake (which correlated weakly with plasma vitamin E) were associated with increased risk of HF in men with no previous myocardial infarction even after adjustment (adjusted hazards ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.23 [1.06, 1.42] for 1 SD increase).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher plasma vitamin C is associated with a reduced risk of HF in older men with and without myocardial infarction. High intake of dietary vitamin E may be associated with increased HF risk. Primary intervention trials assessing the effect of vitamin C supplements on HF risk in the elderly are needed.

Alkaline Phosphatase, Serum Phosphate, and Incident Cardiovascular Disease and Total Mortality in Older Men

Objective—

We have examined the association between serum phosphate and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes and total mortality in older men.

Approach and Results—

A prospective study of 3381 men, aged 60 to 79 years, without a history of myocardial infarction or stroke followed up for an average 11 years during which there were 605 major CVD events (fatal coronary heart disease and nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and CVD death) and 984 total deaths. ALP but not serum phosphate was associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease and overall CVD events which persisted after adjustment for CVD risk factors and markers of inflammation and after exclusion of men with chronic kidney disease (adjusted hazard ratio per SD, 1.19 [1.05, 1.34]; P =0.007 and 1.10 [1.01, 1.21]; P =0.04). In contrast, serum phosphate was only associated with increased CVD mortality owing to noncoronary heart disease or stroke causes (adjusted hazard ratio per SD, 1.35 [1.01, 1.83]; P =0.04). Both raised phosphate and ALP were associated with significantly increased total mortality after full adjustment and exclusion of men with chronic kidney disease.

Conclusions—

ALP but not serum phosphate is associated with coronary heart disease risk in elderly men. High levels of ALP and serum phosphate are both associated with increased total mortality.

Neighborhood disadvantage and adult alcohol outcomes: differential risk by race and gender

OBJECTIVE

We examined whether relationships of neighborhood disadvantage with drinker status, heavy drinking, alcohol-related consequences, and dependence differed by race and/or gender. We hypothesized that neighborhood disadvantage would be negatively associated with drinker status but positively associated with heavy and problem drinking, with more pronounced relationships among African American and Hispanic men than other groups.

METHOD

Data consisted of nationally representative, randomly selected, cross-sectional samples of White, African American, and Hispanic adults (N = 13,864, of which 52% were female; with 7,493 drinkers, of which 48% were female) from the 2000 and 2005 National Alcohol Surveys merged with 2000 Census data. Analyses included logistic and linear regression using weights to adjust for sampling and nonresponse.

RESULTS

Hypotheses were partly supported. Bivariate relationships were in the expected direction. Multivariate main effect models showed that neighborhood disadvantage was significantly associated with increased abstinence and marginally associated with increased negative consequences experienced by drinkers, but race/ethnicity and gender modified these associations. Disadvantage was significantly associated with increased abstinence for all groups except African American and Hispanic men. Among drinkers, disadvantage was significantly negatively associated with heavy drinking by Whites but significantly positively associated with heavy drinking by African Americans. Disadvantage also was associated with elevated alcohol-related consequences for White women and African American men.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings have implications for the development of targeted interventions to reduce the unequal impacts of neighborhood disadvantage on alcohol outcomes. Future research should examine the contribution of multiple types of disadvantage to heavy drinking and alcohol problems.

Epidemiological evidence against a role for C-reactive protein causing leptin resistance

OBJECTIVE

It has been suggested that elevated levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) might interfere with leptin signalling and contribute to leptin resistance. Our aim was to assess whether plasma levels of CRP influence leptin resistance in humans, and our hypothesis was that CRP levels would modify the cross-sectional relationships between leptin and measures of adiposity.

DESIGN AND METHODS

W assessed four measures of adiposity: BMI, waist circumference, fat mass and body fat (%) in 2113 British Regional Heart Study (BRHS) men (mean (s.d.) age 69 (5) years), with replication in 760 (age 69 (6) years) European Male Ageing Study (EMAS) subjects.

RESULTS

IN BRHS subjects, leptin correlated with CRP (SPEARMAN'S R=0.22, P0.0001). Leptin and crp correlated with all four measures of adiposity (R VALUE RANGE: 0.22-0.57, all P<0.0001). Age-adjusted mean levels for adiposity measures increased in relation to leptin levels, but CRP level did not consistently influence the β-coefficients of the regression lines in a CRP-stratified analysis. In BRHS subjects, the BMI vs leptin relationship demonstrated a weak statistical interaction with CRP (P=0.04). We observed no similar interaction in EMAS subjects and no significant interactions with other measures of adiposity in BRHS or EMAS cohorts.

CONCLUSION

We have shown that plasma CRP has little influence on the relationship between measures of adiposity and serum leptin levels in these middle-aged and elderly male European cohorts. This study provides epidemiological evidence against CRP having a significant role in causing leptin resistance.

Adiposity, adipokines, and risk of incident stroke in older men

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The association between adiposity and adipocytes and risk of stroke in older adults is uncertain. We have examined the association between adiposity measures and adipocytes (adiponectin and leptin) with incident stroke events in older men.

METHODS

Prospective study of 3411 men aged 60 to 79 years with no previous diagnosis of myocardial infarction, heart failure, or stroke followed-up for an average of 9 years, during which there were 192 incident major stroke events.

RESULTS

In age-adjusted analyses, body mass index and waist circumference were not significantly associated with risk of stroke in older men, although obese men (body mass index >30 kg/m(2)) showed the lowest risk of stroke. Despite the strong positive correlation between leptin and body mass index and waist circumference, risk of stroke was significantly increased in those in the top quartile of the leptin distribution. The increased risk remained after adjustment for potential confounders, including systolic blood pressure (adjusted hazard ratios top quartile versus bottom quartile: 2.03; confidence interval, 1.27-3.27]). Further adjustment for markers of inflammation (c-reactive protein), endothelial dysfunction (von Willebrand factor), fibrinolytic activity (d-dimer), and γ-glutamyl transferase attenuated the increased risk, but risk remained significantly increased (adjusted hazard ratios, 1.73; confidence interval, 1.06-2.83]). By contrast, no association was seen between adiponectin and risk of stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Conventional adiposity measures were not associated with increased stroke risk in older men. However, leptin (a good marker of percent fat mass), but not adiponectin, predicted stroke, suggesting a link between fat mass and stroke risk.

Fibrin D-dimer, tissue-type plasminogen activator, von Willebrand factor, and risk of incident stroke in older men

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Abnormalities in blood coagulation and the fibrinolytic system have been associated with increased risk of stroke, but few prospective studies have studied the associations in older adults. We have examined the associations between fibrin D-dimer, tissue-type plasminogen activator, and von Willebrand factor (vWF) and risk of stroke in older men and examined their predictive roles separately in normotensive and hypertensive men.

METHODS

Prospective study of 3358 men aged 60 to 79 years with no previous diagnosis of myocardial infarction or stroke and without atrial fibrillation followed-up for an average of 9 years, during which there were 187 incident stroke events.

RESULTS

Increased levels of D-dimer and vWF were associated with significantly increased risk of major stroke events after adjustment for potential confounders, including systolic blood pressure (adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence interval per standard deviation increase in D-dimer and vWF were 1.24 [95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.44] and 1.25 [95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.45], respectively). No associations were seen with tPA after adjustment. The positive associations between D-dimer and vWF and incident stroke remained after additional adjustment for markers of inflammation (C-reactive protein, IL-6). D-dimer was associated with stroke in both normotensive and hypertensive men; vWF showed stronger associations in normotensive than in hypertensive men (test for interaction: P=0.52 for D-dimer; P<0.01 for vWF).

CONCLUSIONS

Fibrin D-dimer and vWF are associated with increased risk of stroke in older men. These associations were not explained by their associations with inflammation. D-dimer may be a useful marker to identify those at high risk for stroke among hypertensive men.

Γ-glutamyltransferase, hepatic enzymes, and risk of incident heart failure in older men

OBJECTIVE

The relationship between γ-glutamyl transferase (GGT) and heart failure (HF) in older adults is unknown. We have examined the relationship between GGT, other markers of hepatic function (alanine aminotransferase, aspartate transaminase, and alkaline phosphatase), and incident HF in older men.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This was a prospective study of 3494 men aged 60 to 79 years with no diagnosed HF or myocardial infarction followed up for a mean period of 9 years, in whom there were 168 incident HF cases. Elevated GGT (top quartile, ≥38 U/L) was associated with significantly increased risk of incident HF in men aged<70 years but not in men aged≥70 years (test for age-GGT interaction, P<0.0001). The increased risk of HF associated with elevated GGT persisted after adjustment for a wide range of established and novel risk factors for HF, including diabetes, stroke, obesity, systolic blood pressure, atrial fibrillation, lung function, inflammation (C-reactive protein), endothelial dysfunction (von Willebrand factor), leptin, and N terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI], 1.91 [1.07, 3.42]). Other liver function markers showed no significant associations with HF after similar adjustments.

CONCLUSION

Elevated GGT was associated with increased risk of HF in men aged<70 years. Additional studies are now needed to determine the mechanisms responsible.

Do women exhibit greater differences in established and novel risk factors between diabetes and non-diabetes than men? The British Regional Heart Study and British Women's Heart Health Study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Type 2 diabetes is associated with greater relative risk of CHD in women than in men, which is not fully explained by conventional cardiovascular risk factors. We assessed whether cardiovascular risk factors including more novel factors such as markers of insulin resistance, inflammation, activated coagulation and endothelial dysfunction differ more between diabetic and non-diabetic women than between diabetic and non-diabetic men, and the role of insulin resistance.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study of non-diabetic and diabetic men and women (n = 7,529) aged 60-79 years with no previous myocardial infarction who underwent an examination was conducted. Measurements of anthropometry, blood pressure and fasting measurements of lipids, insulin, glucose and haemostatic and inflammatory markers were taken.

RESULTS

Non-diabetic women tended to have more favourable risk factors and were less insulin resistant than non-diabetic men, but this was diminished in the diabetic state. Levels of waist circumference, BMI, von Willebrand factor (VWF), WBC count, insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), diastolic blood pressure, HDL-cholesterol, tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) and factor VIII differed more between diabetic and non-diabetic women than between diabetic and non-diabetic men (test for diabetes × sex interaction p < 0.05). The more adverse effect of diabetes on these risk markers in women was associated with, and thereby largely attenuated by, insulin resistance.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The greater adverse influence of diabetes per se on adiposity and HOMA-IR and downstream blood pressure, lipids, endothelial dysfunction and systemic inflammation in women compared with men may contribute to their greater relative risk of coronary heart disease.

Socioeconomic status and coronary heart disease

BACKGROUND

Iran has undergone a remarkable demographic transition over the last three decades. Socioeconomic status (SES) indicators including education, income, and occupation are associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors, morbidity, and mortality. The aim of the present study was to describe demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, their association to the diseases, and to explore the predictive risk of CHD in Tabriz, the fourth largest city in Iran and the capital of East Azerbaijan Province.

METHODS

This cross-sectional descriptive study was carried out to explore and analyze the current SES status of CHD patients. The study was conducted in Tabriz and all patients (n=189) refereed to the Central Referral Hospital for cardiac patients (Shahid Madani Hospi-tal) from 2009 to 2010 were considered. A researcher structured questionnaire with 15 ques-tions was used to collect data. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the basic SES fea-tures of the CHD patients and data analysis was done using SPSS ver. 16.

RESULTS

Less educated participants were more susceptible to CHD. Regarding to occupa-tional status, housewives and retired men were in higher risk of CHD than the rest of the peo-ple.  Studied patients also reported to be mostly from urban areas that were living in apart-ment complexes.

CONCLUSION

In line with some international research evidence the study results suggested that people from lower/middle social classes were in greater CHD risk than higher social classes.  This epidemic might be halted through the promotion of healthier lifestyles and the support of environmental and policy changes.

Obesity and risk of incident heart failure in older men with and without pre-existing coronary heart disease: does leptin have a role?

OBJECTIVES

We examined the relationship between body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and incident HF in men with and without pre-existing coronary heart disease (CHD) and assessed the contribution of plasma leptin concentration to these associations.

BACKGROUND

Leptin has been proposed as a potential link between obesity and heart failure (HF).

METHODS

This was a prospective study of 4,080 men age 60 to 79 years with no diagnosed HF followed for a mean period of 9 years, in whom there were 228 incident HF cases.

RESULTS

Increased BMI was associated with significantly increased risk of HF in men with and without pre-existing CHD (myocardial infarction or angina) after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors including C-reactive protein. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) associated with a 1-SD increase in BMI were 1.37 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09 to 1.72) and 1.18 (95% CI: 1.00 to 1.39) in men with and without CHD, respectively. Increased leptin was significantly associated with an increased risk of HF in men without pre-existing CHD, independent of BMI and potential mediators (adjusted HR for a 1-SD increase in log leptin: 1.30 [95% CI: 1.06 to 1.61]; p = 0.01). However, no association was seen in those with pre-existing CHD (corresponding HR: 1.06 [95% CI: 0.77 to 1.45]; p = 0.72). Adjustment for leptin abolished the association between BMI and HF in men with no CHD; in those with CHD, the association between BMI and HF remained significant (p = 0.03). Similar patterns were seen for waist circumference.

CONCLUSIONS

In the absence of established CHD, the association between obesity and HF may be mediated by plasma leptin. In those with CHD, obesity appears to increase the risk of HF independent of leptin.

Interleukin 18 and coronary heart disease: prospective study and systematic review

AIM

Previous studies suggest that circulating levels of interleukin-18 (IL-18) may be prospectively related to risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in the general population. We report new data from the largest prospective study to date, which are combined with data from all published prospective studies in a meta-analysis.

METHODS

We measured baseline IL-18 levels in stored serum samples of subjects from a case-control study nested within a prospective study of 5661 men aged 40-59 years recruited from general practices in 18 British towns in 1978-1980 and followed-up for up to 16 years (median time to event 8.4 years) for fatal CHD and non-fatal myocardial infarction (595 cases, 1238 controls).

RESULTS

IL-18 concentrations were strongly related to cigarette smoking, triglyceride, HDL-cholesterol (inversely) and to circulating levels of several inflammatory and haemostatic markers. Men in the top third of baseline IL-18 levels had an age-adjusted odds ratio (OR) for CHD of 1.55 (95% CI 1.21, 1.98) compared with those in the lowest third; this was reduced to 1.30 (95% CI 0.99, 1.69) after additional adjustment for vascular risk factors and 1.12 (95% CI 0.84, 1.49) after further adjustment for CRP and IL-6. In meta-analyses of CVD, associations (or effect sizes) were consistent between studies; RRs were 1.64 [corrected] (95% CI 1.48, 1.83) [corrected] after age adjustment, 1.39 (95% CI 1.25, [corrected] 1.55) after additional risk factor adjustment and 1.34 (95% CI 1.17, 1.53) [corrected] after additional adjustment for inflammatory markers.

CONCLUSIONS

Circulating IL-18 is prospectively and independently associated with CVD risk.

N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic Peptide is a more useful predictor of cardiovascular disease risk than C-reactive protein in older men with and without pre-existing cardiovascular disease

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to compare the predictive capabilities of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and C-reactive protein (CRP) for risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in older men with and without pre-existing CVD.

BACKGROUND

The clinical utility of NT-proBNP in CVD risk stratification in the general population remains unclear.

METHODS

A prospective study of 3,649 men age 60 to 79 years were followed for a mean of 9 years during which there were 608 major CVD events (major fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease, stroke, and CVD death).

RESULTS

NT-proBNP was significantly associated with risk of all major CVD outcomes after adjustment for CV risk factors in both men with and without CVD. The adjusted standardized hazard ratios for CVD events in those without pre-existing CVD and those with pre-existing CVD were 1.49 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.33 to 1.65) and 1.52 (95% CI: 1.33 to 1.75), respectively. CRP was associated with CVD outcomes only in men without pre-existing CVD (adjusted standardized hazard ratios: 1.22 [95% CI: 1.10 to 1.34] and 1.00 [95% CI: 0.86 to 1.38], respectively). NT-proBNP was more strongly associated with CVD outcome than CRP, particularly among those with pre-existing CVD. Inclusion of NT-proBNP in a Framingham-based model yielded significant improvement in C-statistics in both men with and without CVD and resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 8.8% (p = 0.0009) and 8.2% (p < 0.05), respectively, for major CVD events. Inclusion of CRP in the Framingham-based model did not improve prediction in either group (net reclassification improvement 3.8% and 0.6%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

NT-proBNP, but not CRP, improved prediction of major CVD events in older men with and without pre-existing CVD.

Survival with treated and well-controlled blood pressure: findings from a prospective cohort study

AIM

To compare survival and incident cardiovascular disease between normotensive, untreated hypertensive, treated and poorly-controlled hypertensive and treated and well-controlled hypertensive adults.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data from the British Regional Heart Study (men) and British Women's Heart and Health Study (women) were used (N = 6476). Blood pressure and treatment were assessed at baseline (1998-2001) when participants were aged 60-79 years and participants were followed up for a median of 8 years. Date and cause of death were obtained from death certificates and non-fatal cardiovascular disease events were obtained from repeat detailed medical record reviews. Of the whole cohort 52% of women and 49% of men had untreated hypertension and a further 22% and 18%, respectively, had poorly treated hypertension. Just 3% of women and 4% of men had treated and well controlled hypertension and 23% and 29%, respectively, were normotensive. Compared to normotensive individuals, incident cardiovascular disease (fatal and non-fatal) was increased in those with poorly-controlled hypertension (Hazard Ratio (HR): 1.88; 95%CI: 1.53, 2.30), those with untreated hypertension (HR 1.46; 95%CI 1.22, 1.75) and those who were well-controlled hypertension (HR 1.38; 95%CI 0.94, 2.03). Adjustment for baseline differences in mean blood pressure between the groups resulted in attenuation of the increased risk in the poorly-controlled (1.52 (1.18, 1.97) and untreated groups (1.21 (0.97, 1.52), but did not change the association in the well-controlled group. All-cause mortality was also increased in all three hypertension groups but estimates were imprecise with wide confidence intervals.

CONCLUSIONS

Half of women and men aged 60-79 in Britain had untreated hypertension and only a very small proportion of those with diagnosed and treated hypertension were well controlled. Those with hypertension, irrespective of whether this was treated and controlled or not, were at greater risk of future cardiovascular disease than those who are normotensive.

Prediction of coronary heart disease risk by Framingham and SCORE risk assessments varies by socioeconomic position: results from a study in British men

AIM

Evidence is limited on performance of the Framingham risk score (FRS) in different socioeconomic groups; similar limitations apply to the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). We examined the performance of coronary risk prediction systems in different socioeconomic groups in British men.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In a socially and geographically representative cohort of British men aged 40-59 between 1978 and 1980, predicted 10-year coronary heart disease (CHD) (fatal and non-fatal) risk was calculated using FRS, and CHD mortality using SCORE. Prevalent cardiovascular disease cases were excluded. Occupational social class ranged from I (professionals) to V (unskilled workers), and was summarized as non-manual (I, II, III non-manual) and manual (III manual, IV, V). Both FRS and SCORE over-estimated 10-year CHD risk; over-prediction by both was particularly marked in high social classes. With FRS, predicted/observed risk fell progressively from 2.30 in social class I to 1.19 in social class V. Sensitivity of FRS at a ≥20% threshold (27% of men) fell from 53% to 37% from social class I to V; specificity varied similarly. With SCORE, predicted/observed CHD mortality fell from 1.53 to 1.26 from social class I to V; sensitivity at a ≥5% threshold (29% of men) fell between non-manual (61%) and manual (57%) groups, as did specificity. However, including social class in FRS barely improved risk prediction (net reclassification improvement = 0.18%).

CONCLUSIONS

Framingham and SCORE predictions varied between socioeconomic groups and are more likely to identify those at greater CHD risk in higher socioeconomic groups. To ensure equitable primary prevention, strategies to adequately estimate risk in lower socioeconomic groups (at increased CHD risk) should be developed.

Class and lifestyle 'lock-in' among middle-aged and older men: a Multiple Correspondence Analysis of the British Regional Heart Study

Health lifestyles are collective patterns of health risk behaviour that develop within a social habitus. An important area for research is the extent to which health lifestyles become more individualised over time and as people age, or whether health lifestyles remain socially structured. This article presents findings from a Multiple Correspondence Analysis of the British Regional Heart Study. Our findings suggest that smoking and alcohol use retain a strong class patterning as men age (suggesting some support for the long-term importance of social structures in old age). This indicates that, in later life, some forms of class-related health lifestyles become fixed or 'locked in'. In contrast there is evidence to suggest that, for exercise, class becomes less important as people age (suggesting either some support for growing individualisation and or important ageing effects). Further studies are required to examine different forms of health lifestyle in later life in relation to forms of cultural and economic capital. This study provides evidence in support of attempts to theorise health lifestyles in terms of collectivities. Furthermore, the concept of selective lifestyle 'lock-in' may be a useful way of understanding the relationship between class and health lifestyles in old age.

High adiponectin and increased risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality in asymptomatic older men: does NT-proBNP help to explain this association?

BACKGROUND

Raised adiponectin is associated with increased rather than decreased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality at older age. We examined whether N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), a marker of cardiac dysfunction, may help explain this relationship.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A prospective study of 2879 men aged 60–79 years with no history of CVD at baseline followed-up for a mean of 9 years during which there were 196 major coronary heart disease events (fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction) and 667 deaths (including 225 CVD deaths), whereas adiponectin concentration was inversely associated with several conventional CVD risk factors; it was significantly and positively associated with NT-proBNP concentration. After adjustment for several vascular risk factors, including renal function and muscle mass, relative risks associated with a top third versus bottom third comparison of adiponectin concentration were 1.51 (1.02–2.23) for coronary heart disease, 1.67 (1.15–2.41) for CVD mortality and 1.41 (1.13–1.95) for all cause mortality. Upon further adjustment for NT-proBNP, these relative risks attenuated to 1.31 (0.88–1.94), 1.31 (0.90–1.91) and 1.26 (1.01–1.59), respectively.

CONCLUSION

We show for the first time that concomitantly elevated NT-proBNP concentration, at least, partially explains the apparently positive relationship between adiponectin concentration and risk of CVD and mortality in asymptomatic elderly men.

Geographic and demographic variability in 20-year hypertension incidence: the CARDIA study

Although the variability of cardiovascular disease mortality by geography, race, and sex is well known, less is known about risk factor variation. We assessed 20-year incidence of hypertension, a cardiovascular disease risk factor, across 4 US urban areas and by race-sex. Among 3436 eligible adults 18 to 30 years of age when recruited in 1985 to 1986 in the community-based Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) cohort, we examined 20-year cumulative incidence of hypertension (systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mm Hg or antihypertensive medication use at any examination) by site and race-sex, adjusting for baseline and time-dependent covariates with Cox regression. Twenty-year incidence, when the mean age was ≈ 45 years, was 34.5% in black men (n = 617), 37.6% in black women (n = 965), 21.4% in white men (n = 856), and 12.3% in white women (n = 998; P<0.001). Incidence was 33.6% in Birmingham, Ala, 23.4% in Chicago, Ill, 19% in Minneapolis, Minn, and 27.4% in Oakland, Calif (P<0.001). After adjustment for age, race, sex, heart rate, body mass index, smoking, family history, education, uric acid, alcohol use, physical activity, and baseline systolic blood pressure, hazard ratios (95% CI) compared with Birmingham were 0.72 (0.59 to 0.87) for Chicago, 0.60 (0.50 to 0.74) for Minneapolis, and 0.73 (0.61 to 0.87) for Oakland. Race-sex differences persisted after adjustment for site, especially for black women. From young adulthood to middle age, hypertension incidence varies significantly across urban areas. Independent of geography, blacks, especially women, are at markedly higher risk of hypertension. Hypertension incidence may contribute to geographic and racial differences in cardiovascular disease mortality, including stroke.

The potential for a two-stage diabetes risk algorithm combining non-laboratory-based scores with subsequent routine non-fasting blood tests: results from prospective studies in older men and women

AIM

To develop strategies based on simple clinical assessment and blood markers to identify older individuals at high risk for Type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

A prospective study of non-diabetic men (n = 3523) and women (n = 3404) aged 60-79 years followed for 7 years, during which there were 297 incident cases of Type 2 diabetes. Logistic regression was used to develop scores to predict incident cases, starting with clinical predictors and adding blood markers that predicted the incidence of diabetes. Receiving operating characteristic analyses were used to assess improvement in prediction.

RESULTS

The area under the curve for a simple clinical assessment score, which included age, sex, family history of diabetes, smoking status, BMI, waist circumference, hypertension and recall of doctor diagnosis of coronary heart disease was 0.765 (0.740, 0.791); sensitivity and specificity in the top quintile of the score were 50.3 and 81.4%, respectively. Addition of simple fasting blood markers HDL cholesterol, triglyceride and glucose improved prediction [area under the curve = 0.817 (0.793, 0.840), P < 0.0001; sensitivity 63.8%; specificity 82.0%]. An alternative model adding blood markers not dependent on fasting yielded similar results. Further addition of C-reactive protein made no improvement. Blood measurements made small differences to reclassification of risk in those in the lowest three quintiles of the non-laboratory score.

CONCLUSION

In large population settings, simple clinical assessments could be used in the first instance to identify older adults who would benefit from further testing with routine (non-fasting) blood markers to identify those at most likely to be at elevated diabetes risk.

Areas of disadvantage: a systematic review of effects of area-level socioeconomic status on substance use outcomes

ISSUES

This review examines whether area-level disadvantage is associated with increased substance use and whether study results are impacted by the size of the area examined, definition of socioeconomic status (SES), age or ethnicity of participants, outcome variables or analytic techniques.

APPROACH

Five electronic databases and the reference sections of identified papers were searched to locate studies of the effects of area-level SES on substance use published through the end of 2007 in English-language, peer-reviewed journals or books. The 41 studies that met inclusion criteria included 238 effects, with a subsample of 34 studies (180 effects) used for the main analyses. Study findings were stratified by methodological characteristics and synthesised using generalised estimating equations to account for clustering of effects within studies.

KEY FINDINGS

There was strong evidence that substance use outcomes cluster by geographic area, but there was limited and conflicting support for the hypothesis that area-level disadvantage is associated with increased substance use. Support for the disadvantage hypothesis appeared to vary by sample age and ethnicity, size of area examined, type of SES measure, specific outcome considered and analysis techniques.

IMPLICATIONS

Future studies should use rigorous methods to yield more definitive conclusions about the effects of area-level SES on alcohol and drug outcomes, including composite measures of SES and both bivariate and multivariate analyses.

CONCLUSION

Further research is needed to identify confounds of the relationship between area-level SES and substance use and to explain why the effects of area-level SES vary by outcome and residents' age.

Common clinical practice versus new PRIM score in predicting coronary heart disease risk

OBJECTIVES

To compare the new Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) Score and common clinical practice with the Framingham Point Score for classification of individuals with respect to coronary heart disease (CHD) risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS

PRIM Score and the Framingham Point Score were estimated for 11,444 participants from the Copenhagen City Heart Study. Gender specific cumulative incidences and 10 year absolute CHD risks were estimated for subsets defined by age, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking categories. PRIM defined seven mutually exclusive subsets in women and men, with cumulative incidences of CHD from 0.01 to 0.22 in women, and from 0.03 to 0.26 in men. PRIM versus Framingham Point Score found 11% versus 4% of all women, and 31% versus 35% of all men to have 10 year CHD risks>20%. Among women ≥ 65 years with hypertension and/or with diabetes, 10 year CHD risk>20% was found for 100% with PRIM scoring but for only 18% with the Framingham Point Score.

CONCLUSION

Compared to the PRIM Score, common clinical practice with the Framingham Point Score underestimates CHD risk in women, especially in women≥65 years with hypertension and/or with diabetes.

Geographical variation in cardiovascular incidence: results from the British Women's Heart and Health Study

BACKGROUND

Prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in women shows regional variations not explained by common risk factors. Analysis of CVD incidence will provide insight into whether there is further divergence between regions with increasing age.

METHODS

Seven-year follow-up data on 2685 women aged 59-80 (mean 69) at baseline from 23 towns in the UK were available from the British Women's Heart and Health Study. Time to fatal or non-fatal CVD was analyzed using Cox regression with adjustment for risk factors, using multiple imputation for missing values.

RESULTS

Compared to South England, CVD incidence is similar in North England (HR 1.05 (95% CI 0.84, 1.31)) and Scotland (0.93 (0.68, 1.27)), but lower in Midlands/Wales (0.85 (0.64, 1.12)). Event severity influenced regional variation, with South England showing lower fatal incident CVD than other regions, but higher non-fatal incident CVD. Kaplan-Meier plots suggested that regional divergence in CVD occurred before baseline (before mean baseline age of 69).

CONCLUSIONS

In women, regional differences in CVD early in adult life do not further diverge in later life. This may be due to regional differences in early detection, survivorship of women entering the study, or event severity. Targeting health care resources for CVD by geographic variation may not be appropriate for older age-groups.

Improving cardiovascular risk reduction for primary prevention--utility of lifetime risk assessment

The objective of this article is to review the evidence basis for short-term risk assessments of overall coronary heart disease (CHD) burden as compared with lifetime risk estimates of CHD, based on the current medical literature. We reviewed literature published in the last 6 years using the terms "cardiovascular prevention," "Framingham risk scoring," "lifetime risk," and "cardiovascular risk assessment," and subsequently evaluated 98 publications to determine the variation in these approaches to estimate cardiovascular risk factors and impact on clinical decision making. The current evidence base suggests that lifetime risk estimates offset the significant impact of age on traditional, short-term risk estimates of cardiovascular risk. We conclude that the use of lifetime risk estimates may be more clinically meaningful than traditional, short-term risk estimates to assess an individual's overall risk burden, and may prevent the potential delay of therapeutic interventions to reduce cardiovascular events. For primary care, this difference may be of relevance to patients and should be communicated to them.

Lung function and risk of type 2 diabetes and fatal and nonfatal major coronary heart disease events: possible associations with inflammation

OBJECTIVE

We prospectively examined the relationship between lung function and risk of type-2 diabetes and fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) events and investigated the hypothesis that inflammation may underlie these associations.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A prospective study of 4,434 men aged 40-59 years with no history of cardiovascular disease (CHD or stroke) or diabetes drawn from general practices in 24 British towns and followed up for 20 years.

RESULTS

There were 680 major CHD events (276 fatal, 404 nonfatal) and 256 incident type 2 diabetes during the 20 years follow-up. Forced vital capacity (FVC) and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1)) but not FEV(1)-to-FVC ratio were significantly and inversely associated with incident type 2 diabetes and fatal CHD events (not nonfatal events) after adjustment for age, potential confounders, and metabolic risk factors. The adjusted relative risk (RR) for type 2 diabetes (Quartile 1 vs. Quartile 4) were 1.59 (1.07-2.56) and 1.74 (1.16-2.61) for FVC and FEV(1), respectively (P = 0.03 and P = 0.04 for trend). The corresponding RR for fatal CHD were 1.48 (1.00-2.21) and 1.81 (1.19-2.76) (P = 0.002 and P = 0.0003 for trend). Lung function was significantly and inversely associated with C-reactive protein and interleukin-6; the inverse associations with type 2 diabetes for FVC and FEV(1) were attenuated after further adjustment for these factors (P = 0.14 and P = 0.11 for trend) but remained significant for fatal CHD (P = 0.03 and P = 0.01, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Restrictive rather than obstructive impairment of lung function is associated with incident type 2 diabetes (and fatal CHD) with both associations partially explained by traditional and metabolic risk factors and inflammation.

The association between graded physical activity in postmenopausal British women, and the prevalence and incidence of hip and wrist fractures

BACKGROUND

physical activity is promoted for older women as a means of maintaining health and avoiding falls and fractures. Findings relating physical activity of older women to risk of falls and fracture are contradictory. The association between level of physical activity and prevalent and incident hip and wrist fractures was examined in a large representative sample of postmenopausal British women.

METHODS

data from the British Women's Heart and Health Study, a cohort study of 4286 postmenopausal women aged 60-79, from 23 UK towns were used. Information on physical activity, anthropometry, falls and hip and wrist fractures from baseline examination and questionnaire (1999-2001) and follow-up questionnaire (2007) were available. Cross-sectional baseline prevalence data were analysed using logistic regression and cohort incidence data using a Cox proportional hazards model examining the association of physical activity with fracture outcomes.

RESULTS

3003 (70%) women, with complete baseline data, were studied. 13.6% had previously fractured a wrist and 1.3% a hip. Analyses unadjusted for confounders showed moderate protective associations between activity and fracture risk. After adjustment for confounders there was a weak trend towards fewer hip fractures (adjusted OR 0.13 [0.01, 1.18]) and more wrist fractures (adjusted OR 1.35 [0.76, 2.48]), amongst most active compared with inactive women. The crude incidence rate of wrist and/or hip fracture was 7.0 [5.9, 8.2] per 1000 person-years. No evidence was found for an association between physical activity and combined incident hip and/or wrist fracture (adjusted rate ratio inactive versus most active 1.69 [0.67, 4.24]).

CONCLUSION

no clear associations between graded physical activity and hip/wrist fractures were seen but estimates were imprecise. Physical activities are heterogeneous and individual fracture types and mechanisms differ. Very large prospective observational studies are required to disentangle the precise effects of different activity patterns on different fracture types.

Cigarette smoking and serum liver enzymes: the role of alcohol and inflammation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Smoking may affect the liver through inflammatory pathways and may aggravate the pathogenic effects of alcohol on the liver. We have examined the relationship between cigarette smoking and liver enzymes and the role of alcohol and C-reactive protein (CRP), a marker of inflammation.

METHODS

The subjects consisted of 4595 men aged 40-59 y with no history of coronary heart disease drawn from general practices in 24 British towns.

RESULTS

Cigarette smoking was significantly associated with increased levels of gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (P < 0.0001) and was inversely associated with increased aspartate aminotransferase (AST) after adjustment for alcohol intake, body mass index and physical activity. Compared with never smokers, heavy cigarette smokers (> or =40/day) were associated with increased odds of elevated GGT (> or =23 IU/L) (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.56 [1.08, 2.27]), which was abolished after adjustment for CRP (adjusted OR 1.27 [0.87, 1.86]). There was a significant interaction between smoking and alcohol on GGT. In the absence of heavy drinking, there was no association between smoking and GGT after adjustment for CRP. Among heavy drinkers, smoking was associated with increased levels of GGT independent of CRP. Smoking was associated with increased odds of elevated ALP (> or =11 IU/L) (adjusted OR 3.95 [2.77, 5.62]), which persisted after adjustment for CRP and white cell count (adjusted OR 2.90 [1.99-4.23]), possibly reflecting increased bone cell activity.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that cigarette smoking does not cause liver injury, but may enhance the effects of alcohol on liver cell injury in heavy drinkers.

Assessing prediction of diabetes in older adults using different adiposity measures: a 7 year prospective study in 6,923 older men and women

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to examine whether waist circumference (WC) or WHR improve diabetes prediction beyond body mass index in older men and women, and to define optimal cut-off points.

METHODS

In this prospective study, non-diabetic men (n = 3,519) and women (n = 3,404) aged 60-79 years were followed up for 7 years. There were 169 and 128 incident cases of type 2 diabetes in men and women, respectively.

RESULTS

BMI, WC and WHR all showed strong associations with incident type 2 diabetes independent of potential confounders. In men, the adjusted relative risks (top vs lowest quartile) were 4.71 (95% CI 2.45-9.03) for BMI, 3.53 (95% CI 1.92-6.48) for WC and 2.76 (95% CI 1.58-4.82) for WHR. For women, the corresponding relative risks were 4.10 (95% CI 2.16-7.79), 12.18 (95% CI 4.83-30.74) and 5.61 (95% CI 2.84-11.09) for BMI, WC and WHR, respectively. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis revealed similar associations for BMI and WC in predicting diabetes in men (AUC = 0.726 and 0.713, respectively); WHR was the weakest predictor (AUC = 0.656). In women, WC was a significantly stronger predictor (AUC = 0.780) than either BMI (AUC = 0.733) or WHR (AUC = 0.728; p < 0.01 for both). Inclusion of both WC and BMI did not improve prediction beyond BMI alone in men or WC alone in women. Optimal sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of type 2 diabetes was observed at a WC of 100 cm in men and 92 cm in women.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

In older men, BMI and WC yielded similar prediction of risk of type 2 diabetes, whereas WC was clearly a superior predictor in older women.

Comparison of the associations of body mass index and measures of central adiposity and fat mass with coronary heart disease, diabetes, and all-cause mortality: a study using data from 4 UK cohorts

BACKGROUND

Measures of regional adiposity have been proposed as alternatives to the measurement of body mass index (BMI) for identifying persons at risk of future disease.

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to compare the magnitudes of association of BMI and alternative measurements of adiposity with coronary heart disease, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease risk factors and all-cause mortality.

DESIGN

Data from 4 cohorts of adults [3937 women from the British Women's Heart and Health Study (BWHHS); 2367 and 1950 men from phases 1 and 3, respectively, of the Caerphilly Prospective Study (CaPS); 403 men and women from the Boyd Orr Study; and 789 men and women from the Maidstone-Dewsbury Study] were analyzed.

RESULTS

The magnitudes of associations of BMI with incident coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease risk factors were similar to those with measurements of central adiposity [waist circumference (WC), waist-hip ratio (WHR), or waist-height ratio (WHtR)] and more direct measurements of fat mass (bioimpedance/skinfold thickness). In CaPS (men only), there was no strong evidence of differences in the strengths of association with incident diabetes between BMI, WC, WHR, and WHtR (P for heterogeneity > 0.49 for all). In the BWHHS (women only), there was statistical evidence that WC [hazard ratio (HR): 2.35; 95% CI: 2.03, 2.73] and WHtR (HR: 2.29; 95% CI: 1.98, 2.66) were more strongly associated with diabetes than with BMI (HR: 1.80; 95% CI: 1.59, 2.04) (P for heterogeneity < 0.02 for both). Central adiposity measurements were positively associated with all-cause mortality, as was BMI, but only when those with a BMI (in kg/m(2)) <22.5 were removed from the analyses.

CONCLUSION

No strong evidence supports replacing BMI in clinical or public health practice with other adiposity measures.

Factors associated with physical activity referral completion and health outcomes

Participant socio-demographic characteristics and referral reason were investigated in relation to completion and health outcomes in a Primary Care Physical Activity Referral Scheme using a prospective population-based longitudinal design. Participants (n = 1735) were recruited over a 2-year period. A three-stage binary logistic regression analysis identified the factors associated with the outcomes of completion (model 1), body mass reduction (model 2) and blood pressure reduction (model 3). Participant's age, gender, ethnicity, occupation and referral reason were the independent variables for model 1, with the variables of completion added in model 2 and completion and body mass reduction added in model 3. Logistic regression analysis revealed that increasing age is associated with the likelihood of completion (Odds Ratio, OR = 1.019; Confidence Interval, CI = 1.008-1.030; P = 0.001). Participants with a pulmonary condition are less likely to complete (OR = 0.546; CI = 0.346-0.860; P < 0.01) compared to those referred for cardiovascular conditions. For ethnicity, in comparison to the white category, patients in the mixed category are significantly more likely to achieve a reduction in body mass (OR = 3.991; CI = 1.191-13.373; P < 0.05). Those who complete are more likely to achieve a reduction in body mass (OR = 3.541; CI = 2.721-4.608; P < 0.001). When compared to the unemployed category, the skilled manual category had an increased likelihood of achieving a reduction in blood pressure (OR = 1.875; CI = 1.044-3.227; P < 0.05). Participants who completed also demonstrated an increased likelihood of a reduction in blood pressure (OR = 1.680; CI = 1.250-2.003; P < 0.001). Furthermore, those participants who achieved a reduction in body mass had an increased likelihood of achieving a reduction in blood pressure (OR = 1.292; CI = 1.008-1.641; P < 0.05). Completion is associated with health outcomes of reduced body mass and blood pressure.

Circulating inflammatory and hemostatic biomarkers are associated with risk of myocardial infarction and coronary death, but not angina pectoris, in older men

AIMS

The extent to which hemostatic and inflammatory biomarkers are related to angina pectoris as compared with myocardial infarction (MI) remains uncertain. We examined the relationship between a wide range of inflammatory and hemostatic biomarkers, including markers of activated coagulation, fibrinolysis and endothelial dysfunction and viscosity, with incident myocardial infarction (MI) or coronary heart disease (CHD) death and incident angina pectoris uncomplicated by MI or CHD death in older men.

METHODS

A prospective study of 3217 men aged 60-79 years with no baseline CHD (angina or MI) and who were not on warfarin, followed up for 7 years during which there were 198 MI/CHD death cases and 220 incident uncomplicated angina cases.

RESULTS

Inflammatory biomarkers [C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6, fibrinogen], plasma viscosity and hemostatic biomarkers [von Willebrand factor (VWF) and fibrin D-dimer] were associated with a significant increased risk of MI/CHD death but not with uncomplicated angina even after adjustment for age and conventional risk factors. Adjustment for CRP attenuated the relationships between VWF, fibrin D-dimer and plasma viscosity with MI/CHD death. Comparisons of differing associations with risk of MI/CHD deaths and uncomplicated angina were significant for the inflammatory markers (P < 0.05) and marginally significant for fibrin D-dimer (P = 0.05). In contrast, established risk factors including blood pressure and high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol were associated with both MI/CHD death and uncomplicated angina.

CONCLUSION

Circulating biomarkers of inflammation and hemostasis are associated with incident MI/CHD death but not incident angina uncomplicated by MI or CHD death in older men.

Associations between dietary fiber and inflammation, hepatic function, and risk of type 2 diabetes in older men: potential mechanisms for the benefits of fiber on diabetes risk

OBJECTIVE

To examine the relationship between dietary fiber and the risk of type 2 diabetes in older men and the role of hepatic and inflammatory markers.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The study was performed prospectively and included 3,428 nondiabetic men (age 60-79 years) followed up for 7 years, during which there were 162 incident cases of type 2 diabetes.

RESULTS

Low total dietary fiber (lowest quartile < or =20 g/day) was associated with increased risk of diabetes after adjustment for total calorie intake and potential confounders (relative risk -1.47 [95% CI 1.03-2.11]). This increased risk was seen separately for both low cereal and low vegetable fiber intake. Dietary fiber was inversely associated with inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein, interleukin-6) and with tissue plasminogen activator and gamma-glutamyl transferase. Adjustment for these markers attenuated the increased risk (1.28 [0.88-1.86]).

CONCLUSIONS

Dietary fiber is associated with reduced diabetes risk, which may be partly explained by inflammatory markers and hepatic fat deposition.

Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, Erqou S, Kaptoge S, Perry PL, Di Angelantonio E, Thompson A, White IR, Marcovina SM, Collins R, Thompson SG, Danesh J. Lipoprotein(a) concentration and the risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, and nonvascular mortality

CONTEXT

Circulating concentration of lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]), a large glycoprotein attached to a low-density lipoprotein-like particle, may be associated with risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the relationship of Lp(a) concentration with risk of major vascular and nonvascular outcomes.

STUDY SELECTION

Long-term prospective studies that recorded Lp(a) concentration and subsequent major vascular morbidity and/or cause-specific mortality published between January 1970 and March 2009 were identified through electronic searches of MEDLINE and other databases, manual searches of reference lists, and discussion with collaborators.

DATA EXTRACTION

Individual records were provided for each of 126,634 participants in 36 prospective studies. During 1.3 million person-years of follow-up, 22,076 first-ever fatal or nonfatal vascular disease outcomes or nonvascular deaths were recorded, including 9336 CHD outcomes, 1903 ischemic strokes, 338 hemorrhagic strokes, 751 unclassified strokes, 1091 other vascular deaths, 8114 nonvascular deaths, and 242 deaths of unknown cause. Within-study regression analyses were adjusted for within-person variation and combined using meta-analysis. Analyses excluded participants with known preexisting CHD or stroke at baseline.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Lipoprotein(a) concentration was weakly correlated with several conventional vascular risk factors and it was highly consistent within individuals over several years. Associations of Lp(a) with CHD risk were broadly continuous in shape. In the 24 cohort studies, the rates of CHD in the top and bottom thirds of baseline Lp(a) distributions, respectively, were 5.6 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.4-5.9) per 1000 person-years and 4.4 (95% CI, 4.2-4.6) per 1000 person-years. The risk ratio for CHD, adjusted for age and sex only, was 1.16 (95% CI, 1.11-1.22) per 3.5-fold higher usual Lp(a) concentration (ie, per 1 SD), and it was 1.13 (95% CI, 1.09-1.18) following further adjustment for lipids and other conventional risk factors. The corresponding adjusted risk ratios were 1.10 (95% CI, 1.02-1.18) for ischemic stroke, 1.01 (95% CI, 0.98-1.05) for the aggregate of nonvascular mortality, 1.00 (95% CI, 0.97-1.04) for cancer deaths, and 1.00 (95% CI, 0.95-1.06) for nonvascular deaths other than cancer.

CONCLUSION

Under a wide range of circumstances, there are continuous, independent, and modest associations of Lp(a) concentration with risk of CHD and stroke that appear exclusive to vascular outcomes.

The effect on cardiovascular risk factors of migration from rural to urban areas in Peru: PERU MIGRANT Study

BACKGROUND

Mass-migration observed in Peru from the 1970s occurred because of the need to escape from politically motivated violence and work related reasons. The majority of the migrant population, mostly Andean peasants from the mountainous areas, tends to settle in clusters in certain parts of the capital and their rural environment could not be more different than the urban one. Because the key driver for migration was not the usual economic and work-related reasons, the selection effects whereby migrants differ from non-migrants are likely to be less prominent in Peru. Thus the Peruvian context offers a unique opportunity to test the effects of migration.

METHODS/DESIGN

The PERU MIGRANT (PEru's Rural to Urban MIGRANTs) study was designed to investigate the magnitude of differences between rural-to-urban migrant and non-migrant groups in specific CVD risk factors. For this, three groups were selected: Rural, people who have always have lived in a rural environment; Rural-urban, people who migrated from rural to urban areas; and, Urban, people who have always lived in a urban environment.

DISCUSSION

Overall response rate at enrolment was 73.2% and overall response rate at completion of the study was 61.6%. A rejection form was obtained in 282/323 people who refused to take part in the study (87.3%). Refusals did not differ by sex in rural and migrant groups, but 70% of refusals in the urban group were males. In terms of age, most refusals were observed in the oldest age-group (>60 years old) in all study groups. The final total sample size achieved was 98.9% of the target sample size (989/1000). Of these, 52.8% (522/989) were females. Final size of the rural, migrant and urban study groups were 201, 589 and 199 urban people, respectively. Migrant's average age at first migration and years lived in an urban environment were 14.4 years (IQR 10-17) and 32 years (IQR 25-39), respectively. This paper describes the PERU MIGRANT study design together with a critical analysis of the potential for bias and confounding in migrant studies, and strategies for reducing these problems. A discussion of the potential advantages provided by the case of migration in Peru to the field of migration and health is also presented.

How much does HDL cholesterol add to risk estimation? A report from the SCORE Investigators

BACKGROUND

Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), the risk estimation system recommended by the European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention, estimates 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease mortality based on age, sex, country of origin, systolic blood pressure, smoking status and either total cholesterol (TC) or TC/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio. As, counterintuitively, these two systems perform very similarly, we have investigated whether incorporating HDL-C and TC as separate variables improves risk estimation.

METHODS

The study consisted of 57,302 men and 47,659 women. Cox proportional hazards method was used to derive the function including HDL-C and an identical function without HDL-C for comparison. Risk charts were developed to illustrate the results.

RESULTS

Inclusion of HDL-C resulted in a modest but statistically significant improvement in risk estimation, based on the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC); 0.814 versus 0.808, P value less than 0.0001, for the functions with and without HDL-C, respectively. Addition of HDL-C also resulted in a significant and important improvement in risk estimation as measured by net reclassification index, which is highly clinically relevant. Improvement in risk estimation was greatest in women from high-risk countries, in terms of both AUROC and net reclassification index.

CONCLUSION

For the general population, the inclusion of HDL-C in risk estimation results in only a modest improvement in overall risk estimation based on AUROC. However, when using the more clinically that examines reclassification of individuals, clinically useful improvements occur. Inclusion of HDL may be particularly useful in women from high-risk countries and individuals with unusually high or low HDL-C levels. Addition of HDL-C is particularly applicable to electronic, interactive risk estimation systems such as HeartScore.

Patterns in drug utilization--national and international aspects: antihypertensive drugs

There is a reasonable agreement between defined daily doses (DDDs) and prescribed daily doses (PDDs) of antihypertensive drugs, at least in Norway and Sweden. Sales and prescriptions of antihypertensive drugs in seven European countries (CSSR, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Northern Ireland, Norway and Sweden) have increased 50 to 200% during the last 10 years. The drug statistics also illustrate marked qualitative and quantitative differences in the utilization of antihypertensive drugs between these seven European countries. Mortality in cardiovascular diseases also differs between these countries, particularly between Northern Ireland and Finland and the other countries. So do sales of alcohol and tobacco. However, none of these factors seem to co-vary with drug utilization.

Extent of social inequalities in disability in the elderly: results from a population-based study of British men

PURPOSE

Little is known about social inequalities in disability in the elderly. We examined the extent and determinants of socioeconomic inequalities in disability and functional limitation in elderly men in Britain.

METHODS

Disability was ascertained as problems with activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental ADL in a socioeconomically representative sample of 3,981 men from 24 British towns who were between 63 to 82 years of age in 2003. We also examined functional limitation. Measures of socioeconomic position were social class, age at leaving full-time education, and car and house ownership.

RESULTS

Men in lower social classes had greater risks of both ADL and instrumental ADL disability and functional limitation compared with higher social classes; odds ratios (95% CI) for social class V compared with I were 3.13 (1.64-5.97), 2.87 (1.49-5.51), and 2.65 (1.31-5.35), respectively. Behavioral risk factors (smoking, body mass index, physical activity) and particularly co-morbidity attenuated these differences; together, they reduced relative risks to 1.11 (0.49-2.51), 1.01 (0.45-2.25), and 1.05 (0.46-2.42). Age at leaving full-time education had no relation to functional limitations after taking social class into account. Men who were not house or car owners had greater odds of functional limitation and ADL disability compared with house or car owners, independent of behavioural risk factors, comorbidities and social class.

CONCLUSION

Strong socioeconomic inequalities in disability exist in the elderly, which were considerably explained by behavioral factors and comorbidity. Policy efforts are needed to reduce the social disparities in disability in the elderly.

Serum matrix metalloproteinase-9 and coronary heart disease: a prospective study in middle-aged men

BACKGROUND

Matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) has a potential role in arterial plaque rupture, but its relation to risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) is uncertain.

AIM

To determine whether circulating levels of serum MMP-9 are prospectively related to the risk of CHD in the general population.

METHODS

We measured baseline MMP-9 levels in stored serum samples of subjects in a case-control study nested within a prospective study of 5661 men followed up for 16 years for CHD events (465 cases, 1076 controls).

RESULTS

MMP-9 values were associated with cigarette smoking, and with several inflammatory and haemostatic markers, but not with age, body mass index, blood pressure or lipid measurements. Men in the top third of baseline MMP-9 levels had an age-adjusted odds ratio (OR) for CHD of 1.37 (95% CI 1.04-1.82) compared with those in the bottom third. Adjustment for conventional risk factors (smoking in particular) reduced the odds ratio to borderline significance: OR 1.28 (95% CI 0.95-1.74), while additional adjustment for two markers of generalized inflammation, interleukin-6 and C-reactive protein, further attenuated the association: OR 1.13 (0.82-1.56).

CONCLUSION

Serum MMP-9 has a modest association with incident CHD in the general population, which is not independent of cigarette smoking exposure and circulating markers of generalized inflammation. MMP-9 is unlikely to be a clinically useful biomarker of CHD risk, but may still play a role in the pathogenesis of CHD.

Hard drinking water does not protect against cardiovascular disease: new evidence from the British Regional Heart Study

BACKGROUND

It has been previously suggested that hard drinking water in general, and in particular high calcium and magnesium intake from drinking water, protect against cardiovascular disease.

DESIGN

Prospective study of men from 24 British towns, with widely differing levels of hardness in drinking water.

METHODS

A total of 7,735 men aged 40-59 years were recruited during 1978-1980. Estimates of town-level water hardness were available and tap water samples, taken from 947 participants who also answered a questionnaire about water consumption, were used to calculate individual calcium and magnesium intakes. Men were followed for incident of major coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, and CHD mortality for 25 years.

RESULTS

Water hardness varied from 0.27 to 5.28 mmol/l in the 24 towns. A weak inverse association was found between water hardness and incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) [hazard ratio (HR), 0.96 per two-fold increase, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.91-1.01, P=0.08 after adjustment for age and seven established coronary risk factors]. No association was observed with CHD incidence (adjusted HR, 0.99, 95% CI, 0.94-1.04, P=0.62) or mortality (adjusted HR, 0.96, 95% CI, 0.90-1.02, P=0.18). Individual magnesium intake showed a positive, rather than an inverse, association with CHD incidence (adjusted HR, 1.10 per two-fold increase, 95% CI, 1.01-1.20, P=0.045); individual calcium intake was unrelated to CHD or CVD end points.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that neither high water hardness, nor high calcium or magnesium intake appreciably protect against CHD or CVD. Initiatives to add calcium and magnesium to desalinated water cannot be justified by these findings.