Socio-economic disadvantage and utilisation of labour epidural analgesia in Scotland: a population-based study†

Socio-economic deprivation is associated with adverse maternal and childhood outcomes. Epidural analgesia, the gold standard for labour analgesia, may improve maternal well-being. We assessed the association of socio-economic status with utilisation of epidural analgesia and whether this differed when epidural analgesia was advisable for maternal safety. This was a population-based study of NHS data for all women in labour in Scotland between 1 January 2007 and 23 October 2020, excluding elective caesarean sections. Socio-economic status deciles were defined using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. Medical conditions for which epidural analgesia is advisable for maternal safety (medical indications) and contraindications were defined according to national guidelines. Of 593,230 patients in labour, 131,521 (22.2%) received epidural analgesia. Those from the most deprived areas were 16% less likely to receive epidural analgesia than the most affluent (relative risk 0.84 [95%CI 0.82-0.85]), with the inter-decile mean change in receiving epidural analgesia estimated at -2% ([95%CI -2.2% to -1.7%]). Among the 21,219 deliveries with a documented medical indication for epidural analgesia, the socio-economic gradient persisted (relative risk 0.79 [95%CI 0.75-0.84], inter-decile mean change in receiving epidural analgesia -2.5% [95%CI -3.1% to -2.0%]). Women in the most deprived areas with a medical indication for epidural analgesia were still less likely (absolute risk 0.23 [95%CI 0.22-0.24]) to receive epidural analgesia than women from the most advantaged decile without a medical indication (absolute risk 0.25 [95%CI 0.24-0.25]). Socio-economic deprivation is associated with lower utilisation of epidural analgesia, even when epidural analgesia is advisable for maternal safety. Ensuring equitable access to an intervention that alleviates pain and potentially reduces adverse outcomes is crucial.

Maternal plasma cortisol's effect on offspring birth weight: a Mendelian Randomisation study

BACKGROUND

Observational studies and randomized controlled trials have found evidence that higher maternal circulating cortisol levels in pregnancy are associated with lower offspring birth weight. However, it is possible that the observational associations are due to residual confounding.

METHODS

We performed two-sample Mendelian Randomisation (MR) using a single genetic variant (rs9989237) associated with morning plasma cortisol (GWAS; sample 1; N = 25,314). The association between this maternal genetic variant and offspring birth weight, adjusted for fetal genotype, was obtained from the published EGG Consortium and UK Biobank meta-analysis (GWAS; sample 2; N = up to 406,063) and a Wald ratio was used to estimate the causal effect. We also performed an alternative analysis using all GWAS reported cortisol variants that takes account of linkage disequilibrium. We also tested the genetic variant's effect on pregnancy cortisol and performed PheWas to search for potential pleiotropic effects.

RESULTS

The estimated effect of maternal circulating cortisol on birth weight was a 50 gram (95% CI, -109 to 10) lower birth weight per 1 SD higher log-transformed maternal circulating cortisol levels, using a single variant. The alternative analysis gave similar results (-33 grams (95% CI, -77 to 11)). The effect of the cortisol variant on pregnancy cortisol was 2-fold weaker than in the original GWAS, and evidence was found of pleiotropy.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide some evidence that higher maternal morning plasma cortisol causes lower birth weight. Identification of more independent genetic instruments for morning plasma cortisol are necessary to explore the potential bias identified.

Maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index and risk of preterm birth: a collaboration using large routine health datasets

BACKGROUND

Preterm birth (PTB) is a leading cause of child morbidity and mortality. Evidence suggests an increased risk with both maternal underweight and obesity, with some studies suggesting underweight might be a greater factor in spontaneous PTB (SPTB) and that the relationship might vary by parity. Previous studies have largely explored established body mass index (BMI) categories. Our aim was to compare associations of maternal pre-pregnancy BMI with any PTB, SPTB and medically indicated PTB (MPTB) among nulliparous and parous women across populations with differing characteristics, and to identify the optimal BMI with lowest risk for these outcomes.

METHODS

We used three UK datasets, two USA datasets and one each from South Australia, Norway and Denmark, together including just under 29 million pregnancies resulting in a live birth or stillbirth after 24 completed weeks gestation. Fractional polynomial multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the relationship of maternal BMI with any PTB, SPTB and MPTB, among nulliparous and parous women separately. The results were combined using a random effects meta-analysis. The estimated BMI at which risk was lowest was calculated via differentiation and a 95% confidence interval (CI) obtained using bootstrapping.

RESULTS

We found non-linear associations between BMI and all three outcomes, across all datasets. The adjusted risk of any PTB and MPTB was elevated at both low and high BMIs, whereas the risk of SPTB was increased at lower levels of BMI but remained low or increased only slightly with higher BMI. In the meta-analysed data, the lowest risk of any PTB was at a BMI of 22.5 kg/m2 (95% CI 21.5, 23.5) among nulliparous women and 25.9 kg/m2 (95% CI 24.1, 31.7) among multiparous women, with values of 20.4 kg/m2 (20.0, 21.1) and 22.2 kg/m2 (21.1, 24.3), respectively, for MPTB; for SPTB, the risk remained roughly largely constant above a BMI of around 25-30 kg/m2 regardless of parity.

CONCLUSIONS

Consistency of findings across different populations, despite differences between them in terms of the time period covered, the BMI distribution, missing data and control for key confounders, suggests that severe under- and overweight may play a role in PTB risk.

Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy.

METHODS

For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961-2007, median latest follow-up years 1980-2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU.

FINDINGS

For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose-response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43-2·97) when diagnosed at 30-39 years, 2·26 (2·08-2·45) at 40-49 years, 1·84 (1·72-1·97) at 50-59 years, 1·57 (1·47-1·67) at 60-69 years, and 1·39 (1·29-1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier.

INTERPRETATION

Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3-4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.

Is Height2.7 Appropriate for Indexation of Left Ventricular Mass in Healthy Adolescents? The Importance of Sex Differences

BACKGROUND

Left ventricular mass (LVM) is an important predictor of cardiovascular risk. In adolescence, LVM is commonly indexed to height2.7, although some evidence suggests that this may not fully account for sex differences.

METHODS

We investigated appropriate allometric scaling of LVM to height, total lean mass, and body surface area, in a UK birth cohort of 2039 healthy adolescents (17±1 years). Allometric relationships were determined by linear regression stratified by sex, following log transformation of x and y variables [log(y)=a+b×log(x)], b is the allometric exponent.

RESULTS

Log (LVM) showed linear relationships with log(height) and log(lean mass). Biased estimates of slope resulted when the sexes were pooled. The exponents were lower than the conventional estimate of 2.7 for males (mean [95% CI]=1.66 [1.30-2.03]) and females (1.58 [1.27-1.90]). When LVM was indexed to lean mass, the exponent was 1.16 (1.05-1.26) for males and 1.07 (0.97-1.16) for females. When LVM was indexed to estimated body surface area, the exponent was 1.53 (1.40-1.66) for males and 1.34 (1.24-1.45) for females.

CONCLUSIONS

Allometric exponents derived from pooled data, including men and women without adjustment for sex were biased, possibly due to sex differences in body composition. We suggest that when assessing LVM, clinicians should consider body size, body composition, sex, and age. Our observations may also have implications for the identification of young individuals with cardiac hypertrophy.

Characteristics associated with antenatally unidentified small-for-gestational-age fetuses: prospective cohort study nested within DESiGN randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To identify the clinical characteristics and patterns of ultrasound use amongst pregnancies with an antenatally unidentified small-for-gestational-age (SGA) fetus, compared with those in which SGA is identified, to understand how to design interventions that improve antenatal SGA identification.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of singleton, non-anomalous SGA (birth weight < 10th centile) neonates born after 24 + 0 gestational weeks at 13 UK sites, recruited for the baseline period and control arm of the DESiGN trial. Pregnancy with antenatally unidentified SGA was defined if there was no scan or if the final scan showed estimated fetal weight (EFW) at the 10th centile or above. Identified SGA was defined if EFW was below the 10th centile at the last scan. Maternal and fetal sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were studied for associations with unidentified SGA using unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models. Ultrasound parameters (gestational age at first growth scan, number and frequency of ultrasound scans) were described, stratified by presence of indication for serial ultrasound. Associations of unidentified SGA with absolute centile and percentage weight difference between the last scan and birth were also studied on unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression, according to time between the last scan and birth.

RESULTS

Of the 15 784 SGA babies included, SGA was not identified antenatally in 78.7% of cases. Of pregnancies with unidentified SGA, 47.1% had no recorded growth scan. Amongst 9410 pregnancies with complete data on key maternal comorbidities and antenatal complications, the risk of unidentified SGA was lower for women with any indication for serial scans (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 0.56 (95% CI, 0.49-0.64)), for Asian compared with white women (aOR, 0.80 (95% CI, 0.69-0.93)) and for those with non-cephalic presentation at birth (aOR, 0.58 (95% CI, 0.46-0.73)). The risk of unidentified SGA was highest among women with a body mass index (BMI) of 25.0-29.9 kg/m2 (aOR, 1.15 (95% CI, 1.01-1.32)) and lowest in those with underweight BMI (aOR, 0.61 (95% CI, 0.48-0.76)) compared to women with BMI of 18.5-24.9 kg/m2 . Compared to women with identified SGA, those with unidentified SGA had fetuses of higher SGA birth-weight centile (adjusted odds for unidentified SGA increased by 1.21 (95% CI, 1.18-1.23) per one-centile increase between the 0th and 10th centiles). Duration between the last scan and birth increased with advancing gestation in pregnancies with unidentified SGA. SGA babies born within a week of the last growth scan had a mean difference between EFW and birth-weight centiles of 19.5 (SD, 13.8) centiles for the unidentified-SGA group and 0.2 (SD, 3.3) centiles for the identified-SGA group (adjusted mean difference between groups, 19.0 (95% CI, 17.8-20.1) centiles).

CONCLUSIONS

Unidentified SGA was more common amongst women without an indication for serial ultrasound, and in those with cephalic presentation at birth, BMI of 25.0-29.9 kg/m2 and less severe SGA. Ultrasound EFW was overestimated in women with unidentified SGA. This demonstrates the importance of improving the accuracy of SGA screening strategies in low-risk populations and continuing performance of ultrasound scans for term pregnancies. © 2022 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Arterial stiffness increase from adolescence to young adulthood is accelerated by smoking and alcohol use

Background

Smoking tobacco and drinking alcohol are associated with increased arterial stiffness, a critical intermediate endpoint for cardiovascular disease, in adults and in teenagers. The relationship between these risky behaviours and changes in arterial stiffness from late adolescence to early adulthood is not known.

Purpose

To investigate associations between smoking and drinking habits and the change in arterial stiffness between ages 17 and 24 using a large population-based cohort.

Methods

Participants underwent repeated measurements of arterial stiffness (carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV)), anthropometrics, resting blood pressure and blood biomarkers, at ages 17 and 24 years. Participants were grouped and scored by alcohol (never, medium intensity (MI): ≤4 drinks on a typical day of drinking, high intensity (HI): &gt;5) and smoking (never, past, MI, &lt;10 cigarettes a day HI, ≥10) exposure at both clinics. Average scores between clinics were taken (scores 0–5) and composite alcohol (never, MI, HI) and smoking (never, past, MI, HI) groups were created. Multivariable regression analysis was performed to investigate associations between smoking/drinking habits and change in cfPWV from 17 to 24 years (ΔPWV). Associations were adjusted for age, gender, and socioeconomic status (model 1). Model 2 was additionally adjusted for body mass index, systolic blood pressure, LDL cholesterol, glucose, and C-reactive protein at age 24. Data are presented as means (95% confidence intervals).

Results

1,655 participants (1,013 females and 642 males) had cfPWV recorded at both ages. cfPWV increased from 17 to 24 years in both women (ΔPWV 0.56m/s (0.50, 0.62), p&lt;0.001) and men (0.65m/s (0.56, 0.74), p&lt;0.001). There was a 0.05m/s (0.00, 0.10) increase in ΔPWV per 1 unit increase in average alcohol score (p=0.039). Compared to never drinkers, ΔPWV increased by 0.18m/s (−0.03, 0.38) in MI (p=0.09), and 0.21m/s (−0.01, 0.41) in HI drinkers (p=0.055). There was no association between ΔPWV and average smoking score (β=0.03m/s (−0.03, 0.08), p=0.4). Compared to never smokers, HI smokers had a slightly greater ΔPWV (0.17m/s (−0.08, 0.42), p=0.18). After stratifying by sex, this difference was evident in women (0.32m/s (0.04, 0.60), p=0.028) while no association was seen in men (−0.12m/s (−0.59, 0.35), p=0.6). No differences were found between never-smokers and ex-smokers (difference = 0.04m/s (−0.08, 0.16), p=0.5). Adjustment for potential confounders (model 2) did not attenuate these associations. Figure shows estimated marginal means for ΔPWV between (a) alcohol and (b) smoking groups from model 1. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals.

Conclusion

Smoking and alcohol use in young adulthood is associated with an accelerated increase in arterial stiffness, with evidence of a graded adverse association for alcohol. Our findings also suggest that adverse effects of smoking in youth may be reversible with smoking cessation.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation

P–396 Preconceptual male and female metabolite profiles are associated with ongoing pregnancy after IVF

Study question

In men and women undergoing IVF are preconceptual circulating metabolites associated with ongoing pregnancy rates?

Summary answer

Preconceptual serum histidine levels, in both women and men were associated with ongoing pregnancy. Several amino acids and lipoproteins exhibited possible sex-specific associations.

What is known already

Preconceptual maternal health has been associated with pregnancy outcomes after IVF. The extent to which this is because of pre-existing metabolic factors related to infertility and the role of paternal metabolic health is unclear.

Study design, size, duration

Cohort of 398 women and 325 male partners prospectively recruited between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2019.

Participants/materials, setting, methods

Women and their male partners intending to undergo assisted conception at a University Hospital, had detailed pre-treatment phenotyping including non-fasting serum lipids, lipoprotein subclasses, and low-molecular weight metabolites (including amino acids, glycolysis and inflammatory markers) (155 metabolites) quantified by NMR spectroscopy. Multivariable linear and logistic regression were used to examine the associations of pre-treatment serum metabolic profiles, with ongoing pregnancy at 20 weeks gestation with adjustment for confounders.

Main results and the role of chance

392 women and 322 men proceeded to IVF treatment, with an overall ongoing pregnancy rate of 47.2% (95% CI 0.42, 0.52) per cycle started and a multiple pregnancy rate of 1.1% (95%CI 0.0, 0.04). In both females and males in confounder adjusted analyses histidine was associated with the chance of ongoing pregnancy, with similar magnitudes in each parent (OR 1.28 (95% CI 1.03, 1.60) per one standard deviation (SD) increase for males and OR 1.26 (95% CI 0.99, 1.60) per one SD increase for females). In females Alanine (OR = 1.31 (1.05, 1.64)), Isoleucine (OR = 1.28 (1.02, 1.61)) and Leucine (OR = 1.24 (0.99, 1.55)) had a positive association with ongoing pregnancy, while in males, pyruvate (OR = 1.30 (1.02,1.66)) exhibited a positive association with ongoing pregnancy. In both parents, associations of lipids, lipoproteins sub-particles and fatty acids with pregnancy were closer to the null.

Limitations, reasons for caution

Suggestive parental differences could be due to chance. Patients were relatively homogenous undertaking their first IVF cycle and the results may not be generalisable to other clinical populations.

Wider implications of the findings: This study provides data on a range of metabolic pathways and their association with ongoing pregnancy following IVF. The identification of potentially relevant clinical effect sizes in both men and women warrants further exploration.

Trial registration number

Not applicable

Impact of lung function on cardiovascular diseases and cardiovascular risk factors: a two sample bidirectional Mendelian randomisation study

INTRODUCTION

Observational studies suggested lung function is inversely associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) although these studies could be confounded. We conducted a two sample Mendelian randomisation study using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to clarify the role of lung function in CVD and its risk factors, and conversely the role of CVD in lung function.

METHODS

We obtained genetic instruments for forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁: 260) and forced vital capacity (FVC: 320) from publicly available UK Biobank summary statistics (n=421 986) and applied to GWAS summary statistics for coronary artery disease (CAD) (n=184 305), stroke (n=446 696), atrial fibrillation (n=1 030 836) and heart failure (n=977 320) and cardiovascular risk factors. Inverse variance weighting was used to assess the impact of lung function on these outcomes, with various sensitivity analyses. Bidirectional Mendelian randomisation was used to assess reverse causation.

RESULTS

FEV₁ and FVC were inversely associated with CAD (OR per SD increase, 0.72 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.82) and 0.70 (95%CI 0.62 to 0.78)), overall stroke (0.87 (95%CI 0.77 to 0.97), 0.90 (95% CI 0.82 to 1.00)) and some stroke subtypes. FEV₁ and FVC were inversely associated with type 2 diabetes and systolic blood pressure. Sensitivity analyses produced similar findings although the association with CAD was attenuated after adjusting for height (eg, OR for 1SD FEV₁0.95 (0.75 to 1.19), but not for stroke or type 2 diabetes. There was no strong evidence for reverse causation.

CONCLUSION

Higher lung function likely protect against CAD and stroke.

Blood pressure variability and night-time dipping assessed by 24-hour ambulatory monitoring: Cross-sectional association with cardiac structure in adolescents

Greater blood pressure (BP) is associated with greater left ventricular mass indexed to height2.7 (LVMi2.7) in adolescents. This study examined whether greater BP variability and reduced night-time dipping are associated with cardiac remodeling in a general population of adolescents. A cross-sectional analysis was undertaken in 587 UK adolescents (mean age 17.7 years; 43.1% male). BP was measured in a research clinic and using 24-hour ambulatory monitoring. We examined associations (for both systolic and diastolic BP) of: 1) clinic and 24-hour mean BP; 2) measures of 24-hour BP variability: standard deviation weighted for day/night (SDdn), variability independent of the mean (VIM) and average real variability (ARV); and 3) night-time dipping with cardiac structures. Cardiac structures were assessed by echocardiography: 1) LVMi2.7; 2) relative wall thickness (RWT); 3) left atrial diameter indexed to height (LADi) and 4) left ventricular internal diameter in diastole (LVIDD). Higher systolic BP was associated with greater LVMi2.7. Systolic and diastolic BP were associated with greater RWT. Associations were inconsistent for LADi and LVIDD. There was evidence for associations between both greater SDdn and ARV and higher RWT (per 1 SD higher diastolic ARV, mean difference in RWT was 0.13 SDs, 95% CI 0.045 to 0.21); these associations with RWT remained after adjustment for mean BP. There was no consistent evidence of associations between night-time dipping and cardiac structure. Measurement of BP variability, even in adolescents with blood pressure in the physiologic range, might benefit risk of cardiovascular remodeling assessment.

GLU: a software package for analysing continuously measured glucose levels in epidemiology

Continuous glucose monitors (CGM) record interstitial glucose levels 'continuously', producing a sequence of measurements for each participant (e.g. the average glucose level every 5 min over several days, both day and night). To analyse these data, researchers tend to derive summary variables such as the area under the curve (AUC), to then use in subsequent analyses. To date, a lack of consistency and transparency of precise definitions used for these summary variables has hindered interpretation, replication and comparison of results across studies. We present GLU, an open-source software package for deriving a consistent set of summary variables from CGM data. GLU performs quality control of each CGM sample (e.g. addressing missing data), derives a diverse set of summary variables (e.g. AUC and proportion of time spent in hypo-, normo- and hyper- glycaemic levels) covering six broad domains, and outputs these (with quality control information) to the user. GLU is implemented in R and is available on GitHub at https://github.com/MRCIEU/GLU. Git tag v0.2 corresponds to the version presented here.

Changes in parental smoking during pregnancy and risks of adverse birth outcomes and childhood overweight in Europe and North America: An individual participant data meta-analysis of 229,000 singleton births

BACKGROUND

Fetal smoke exposure is a common and key avoidable risk factor for birth complications and seems to influence later risk of overweight. It is unclear whether this increased risk is also present if mothers smoke during the first trimester only or reduce the number of cigarettes during pregnancy, or when only fathers smoke. We aimed to assess the associations of parental smoking during pregnancy, specifically of quitting or reducing smoking and maternal and paternal smoking combined, with preterm birth, small size for gestational age, and childhood overweight.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis among 229,158 families from 28 pregnancy/birth cohorts from Europe and North America. All 28 cohorts had information on maternal smoking, and 16 also had information on paternal smoking. In total, 22 cohorts were population-based, with birth years ranging from 1991 to 2015. The mothers' median age was 30.0 years, and most mothers were medium or highly educated. We used multilevel binary logistic regression models adjusted for maternal and paternal sociodemographic and lifestyle-related characteristics. Compared with nonsmoking mothers, maternal first trimester smoking only was not associated with adverse birth outcomes but was associated with a higher risk of childhood overweight (odds ratio [OR] 1.17 [95% CI 1.02-1.35], P value = 0.030). Children from mothers who continued smoking during pregnancy had higher risks of preterm birth (OR 1.08 [95% CI 1.02-1.15], P value = 0.012), small size for gestational age (OR 2.15 [95% CI 2.07-2.23], P value < 0.001), and childhood overweight (OR 1.42 [95% CI 1.35-1.48], P value < 0.001). Mothers who reduced the number of cigarettes between the first and third trimester, without quitting, still had a higher risk of small size for gestational age. However, the corresponding risk estimates were smaller than for women who continued the same amount of cigarettes throughout pregnancy (OR 1.89 [95% CI 1.52-2.34] instead of OR 2.20 [95% CI 2.02-2.42] when reducing from 5-9 to ≤4 cigarettes/day; OR 2.79 [95% CI 2.39-3.25] and OR 1.93 [95% CI 1.46-2.57] instead of OR 2.95 [95% CI 2.75-3.15] when reducing from ≥10 to 5-9 and ≤4 cigarettes/day, respectively [P values < 0.001]). Reducing the number of cigarettes during pregnancy did not affect the risks of preterm birth and childhood overweight. Among nonsmoking mothers, paternal smoking was associated with childhood overweight (OR 1.21 [95% CI 1.16-1.27], P value < 0.001) but not with adverse birth outcomes. Limitations of this study include the self-report of parental smoking information and the possibility of residual confounding. As this study only included participants from Europe and North America, results need to be carefully interpreted regarding other populations.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed that as compared to nonsmoking during pregnancy, quitting smoking in the first trimester is associated with the same risk of preterm birth and small size for gestational age, but with a higher risk of childhood overweight. Reducing the number of cigarettes, without quitting, has limited beneficial effects. Paternal smoking seems to be associated, independently of maternal smoking, with the risk of childhood overweight. Population strategies should focus on parental smoking prevention before or at the start, rather than during, pregnancy.

Common variation at 16p11.2 is associated with glycosuria in pregnancy: findings from a genome-wide association study in European women

Glycosuria is a condition where glucose is detected in urine at higher concentrations than normal (i.e. not detectable). Glycosuria at some point during pregnancy has an estimated prevalence of 50% and is associated with adverse outcomes in both mothers and offspring. Little is currently known about the genetic contribution to this trait or the extent to which it overlaps with other seemingly related traits, e.g. diabetes. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for self-reported glycosuria in pregnant mothers from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (cases/controls = 1249/5140). We identified two loci, one of which (lead SNP = rs13337037; chromosome 16; odds ratio of glycosuria per effect allele: 1.42; 95% CI: 1.30, 1.56; P = 1.97 × 10-13) was then validated using an obstetric measure of glycosuria measured in the same cohort (227/6639). We performed a secondary GWAS in the 1986 Northern Finland Birth Cohort (NFBC1986; 747/2991) using midwife-reported glycosuria and offspring genotype as a proxy for maternal genotype. The combined results revealed evidence for a consistent effect on glycosuria at the chromosome 16 locus. In follow-up analyses, we saw little evidence of shared genetic underpinnings with the exception of urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (Rg = 0.64; SE = 0.22; P = 0.0042), a biomarker of kidney disease. In conclusion, we identified a genetic association with self-reported glycosuria during pregnancy, with the lead SNP located 15kB upstream of SLC5A2, a target of antidiabetic drugs. The lack of strong genetic correlation with seemingly related traits such as type 2 diabetes suggests different genetic risk factors exist for glycosuria during pregnancy.

4-Hydroxyglutamate is a novel predictor of pre-eclampsia

Background

Pre-term pre-eclampsia is a major cause of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality worldwide. A multi-centre randomized–controlled trial has shown that first-trimester screening followed by treatment of high-risk women with aspirin reduces the risk of pre-term pre-eclampsia. However, the biomarkers currently employed in risk prediction are only weakly associated with the outcome.

Methods

We conducted a case–cohort study within the Pregnancy Outcome Prediction study to analyse untargeted maternal serum metabolomics in samples from 12, 20, 28 and 36 weeks of gestational age (wkGA) in women with pre-eclampsia delivering at term (n = 165) and pre-term (n = 29), plus a random sample of the cohort (n = 325). We used longitudinal linear mixed models to identify candidate metabolites at 20/28 wkGA that differed by term pre-eclampsia status. Candidates were validated using measurements at 36 wkGA in the same women. We then tested the association between the 12-, 20- and 28-wkGA measurements and pre-term pre-eclampsia. We externally validated the association using 24- to 28-wkGA samples from the Born in Bradford study (25 cases and 953 controls).

Results

We identified 100 metabolites that differed most at 20/28 wkGA in term pre-eclampsia. Thirty-three of these were validated (P < 0.0005) at 36 wkGA. 4-Hydroxyglutamate and C-glycosyltryptophan were independently predictive at 36 wkGA of term pre-eclampsia. 4-Hydroxyglutamate was also predictive (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 95% confidence interval) of pre-term pre-eclampsia at 12 (0.673, 0.558–0.787), 20 (0.731, 0.657–0.806) and 28 wkGA (0.733, 0.627–0.839). The predictive ability of 4-hydroxyglutamate at 12 wkGA was stronger than two existing protein biomarkers, namely PAPP-A (0.567, 0.439–0.695) and placenta growth factor (0.589, 0.463–0.714). Finally, 4-hydroxyglutamate at 24–28 wkGA was positively associated with pre-eclampsia (term or pre-term) among women from the Born in Bradford study.

Conclusions

4-hydroxyglutamate is a novel biochemical predictor of pre-eclampsia that provides better first-trimester prediction of pre-term disease than currently employed protein biomarkers.

UK stillbirth trends in over 11 million births provide no evidence to support effectiveness of Growth Assessment Protocol program

OBJECTIVE

Use of the Growth Assessment Protocol (GAP) has increased internationally under the assumption that it reduces the stillbirth rate. The evidence for this is limited and based largely on an ecological time-trend study. Discordance in the uptake of the GAP program between Scotland and England/Wales enabled us to assess the assertion that implementation of GAP leads to a reduced stillbirth rate.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the National Records for Scotland and the Office for National Statistics on the number of singleton maternities and stillbirths in Scotland and in England and Wales, respectively, from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2015. National uptake of the GAP program over time in each of the regions was recorded. Stillbirth rate per 1000 maternities was calculated, according to year of delivery, and compared between Scotland and England/Wales.

RESULTS

During the study period, there were 870 632 singleton maternities in Scotland, of which 4243 were stillbirths, and there were 10 469 120 singleton maternities in England and Wales, of which 51 562 were stillbirths. There was a marked difference in uptake of the GAP program between the two regions, with substantially fewer maternity units in Scotland implementing the program. Stillbirth rates were static up to 2010, with a decline thereafter in both regions, to 3.75 (95% CI, 3.25-4.30) per 1000 maternities in Scotland and 4.30 (95% CI, 4.15-4.46) per 1000 maternities in England and Wales in 2015. From 2010 onwards, the decline in Scotland was faster, equating to 48 (95% CI, 47.9-48.1) fewer stillbirths per 100 000 maternities in Scotland than in England and Wales from 2010 to 2015 compared with 2000 to 2009.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a decline in stillbirth rate in England and Wales, which coincided with implementation of the GAP program. However, a concurrent decline in stillbirth rate was observed in Scotland in the absence of increased implementation of GAP. The secular rates of change in stillbirth rate in England and Wales cannot be used to infer efficacy of the GAP program. © 2020 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Elucidating the role of maternal environmental exposures on offspring health and disease using two-sample Mendelian randomization

BACKGROUND

There is considerable interest in estimating the causal effect of a range of maternal environmental exposures on offspring health-related outcomes. Previous attempts to do this using Mendelian randomization methodologies have been hampered by the paucity of epidemiological cohorts with large numbers of genotyped mother-offspring pairs.

METHODS

We describe a new statistical model that we have created which can be used to estimate the effect of maternal genotypes on offspring outcomes conditional on offspring genotype, using both individual-level and summary-results data, even when the extent of sample overlap is unknown.

RESULTS

We describe how the estimates obtained from our method can subsequently be used in large-scale two-sample Mendelian randomization studies to investigate the causal effect of maternal environmental exposures on offspring outcomes. This includes studies that aim to assess the causal effect of in utero exposures related to fetal growth restriction on future risk of disease in offspring. We illustrate our framework using examples related to offspring birthweight and cardiometabolic disease, although the general principles we espouse are relevant for many other offspring phenotypes.

CONCLUSIONS

We advocate for the establishment of large-scale international genetics consortia that are focused on the identification of maternal genetic effects and committed to the public sharing of genome-wide summary-results data from such efforts. This information will facilitate the application of powerful two-sample Mendelian randomization studies of maternal exposures and offspring outcomes.

Identifying potential causal effects of age at menarche: a Mendelian randomization phenome-wide association study

BACKGROUND

Age at menarche has been associated with various health outcomes. We aimed to identify potential causal effects of age at menarche on health-related traits in a hypothesis-free manner.

METHODS

We conducted a Mendelian randomization phenome-wide association study (MR-pheWAS) of age at menarche with 17,893 health-related traits in UK Biobank (n = 181,318) using PHESANT. The exposure of interest was the genetic risk score for age at menarche. We conducted a second MR-pheWAS after excluding SNPs associated with BMI from the genetic risk score, to examine whether results might be due to the genetic overlap between age at menarche and BMI. We followed up a subset of health-related traits to investigate MR assumptions and seek replication in independent study populations.

RESULTS

Of the 17,893 tests performed in our MR-pheWAS, we identified 619 associations with the genetic risk score for age at menarche at a 5% false discovery rate threshold, of which 295 were below a Bonferroni-corrected P value threshold. These included potential effects of younger age at menarche on lower lung function, higher heel bone-mineral density, greater burden of psychosocial/mental health problems, younger age at first birth, higher risk of childhood sexual abuse, poorer cardiometabolic health, and lower physical activity. After exclusion of variants associated with BMI, the genetic risk score for age at menarche was related to 37 traits at a 5% false discovery rate, of which 29 were below a Bonferroni-corrected P value threshold. We attempted to replicate findings for bone-mineral density, lung function, neuroticism, and childhood sexual abuse using 5 independent cohorts/consortia. While estimates for lung function, higher bone-mineral density, neuroticism, and childhood sexual abuse in replication cohorts were consistent with UK Biobank estimates, confidence intervals were wide and often included the null.

CONCLUSIONS

The genetic risk score for age at menarche was related to a broad range of health-related traits. Follow-up analyses indicated imprecise evidence of an effect of younger age at menarche on greater bone-mineral density, lower lung function, higher neuroticism score, and greater risk of childhood sexual abuse in the smaller replication samples available; hence, these findings need further exploration when larger independent samples become available.

Circulating Fatty Acids and Risk of Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke: Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis in Up to 16 126 Participants

Background We aimed at investigating the association of circulating fatty acids with coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke risk. Methods and Results We conducted an individual-participant data meta-analysis of 5 UK-based cohorts and 1 matched case-control study. Fatty acids (ie, omega-3 docosahexaenoic acid, omega-6 linoleic acid, monounsaturated and saturated fatty acids) were measured at baseline using an automated high-throughput serum nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics platform. Data from 3022 incident CHD cases (13 104 controls) and 1606 incident stroke cases (13 369 controls) were included. Logistic regression was used to model the relation between fatty acids and odds of CHD and stroke, adjusting for demographic and lifestyle variables only (ie, minimally adjusted model) or with further adjustment for other fatty acids (ie, fully adjusted model). Although circulating docosahexaenoic acid, but not linoleic acid, was related to lower CHD risk in the fully adjusted model (odds ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.76-0.95 per standard unit of docosahexaenoic acid), there was evidence of high between-study heterogeneity and effect modification by study design. Stroke risk was consistently lower with increasing circulating linoleic acid (odds ratio for fully adjusted model, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.75-0.90). Circulating monounsaturated fatty acids were associated with higher CHD risk across all models and with stroke risk in the fully adjusted model (odds ratio, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.03-1.44). Saturated fatty acids were not related to increased CHD risk in the fully adjusted model (odds ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.82-1.09), or stroke risk. Conclusions We found consistent evidence that linoleic acid was associated with decreased risk of stroke and that monounsaturated fatty acids were associated with increased risk of CHD. The different pattern between CHD and stroke in terms of fatty acids risk profile suggests future studies should be cautious about using composite events. Different study designs are needed to assess which, if any, of the associations observed is causal.

Epigenome-wide meta-analysis of blood DNA methylation in newborns and children identifies numerous loci related to gestational age

BACKGROUND

Preterm birth and shorter duration of pregnancy are associated with increased morbidity in neonatal and later life. As the epigenome is known to have an important role during fetal development, we investigated associations between gestational age and blood DNA methylation in children.

METHODS

We performed meta-analysis of Illumina's HumanMethylation450-array associations between gestational age and cord blood DNA methylation in 3648 newborns from 17 cohorts without common pregnancy complications, induced delivery or caesarean section. We also explored associations of gestational age with DNA methylation measured at 4-18 years in additional pediatric cohorts. Follow-up analyses of DNA methylation and gene expression correlations were performed in cord blood. DNA methylation profiles were also explored in tissues relevant for gestational age health effects: fetal brain and lung.

RESULTS

We identified 8899 CpGs in cord blood that were associated with gestational age (range 27-42 weeks), at Bonferroni significance, P < 1.06 × 10- 7, of which 3343 were novel. These were annotated to 4966 genes. After restricting findings to at least three significant adjacent CpGs, we identified 1276 CpGs annotated to 325 genes. Results were generally consistent when analyses were restricted to term births. Cord blood findings tended not to persist into childhood and adolescence. Pathway analyses identified enrichment for biological processes critical to embryonic development. Follow-up of identified genes showed correlations between gestational age and DNA methylation levels in fetal brain and lung tissue, as well as correlation with expression levels.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified numerous CpGs differentially methylated in relation to gestational age at birth that appear to reflect fetal developmental processes across tissues. These findings may contribute to understanding mechanisms linking gestational age to health effects.

Exploring the role of genetic confounding in the association between maternal and offspring body mass index: evidence from three birth cohorts

BACKGROUND

Maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) is positively associated with offspring birth weight (BW) and BMI in childhood and adulthood. Each of these associations could be due to causal intrauterine effects, or confounding (genetic or environmental), or some combination of these. Here we estimate the extent to which the association between maternal BMI and offspring body size is explained by offspring genotype, as a first step towards establishing the importance of genetic confounding.

METHODS

We examined the associations of maternal pre-pregnancy BMI with offspring BW and BMI at 1, 5, 10 and 15 years, in three European birth cohorts (n ≤11 498). Bivariate Genomic-relatedness-based Restricted Maximum Likelihood implemented in the GCTA software (GCTA-GREML) was used to estimate the extent to which phenotypic covariance was explained by offspring genotype as captured by common imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We merged individual participant data from all cohorts, enabling calculation of pooled estimates.

RESULTS

Phenotypic covariance (equivalent here to Pearson's correlation coefficient) between maternal BMI and offspring phenotype was 0.15 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13, 0.17] for offspring BW, increasing to 0.29 (95% CI: 0.26, 0.31) for offspring 15 year BMI. Covariance explained by offspring genotype was negligible for BW [-0.04 (95% CI: -0.09, 0.01)], but increased to 0.12 (95% CI: 0.04, 0.21) at 15 years, which is equivalent to 43% (95% CI: 15%, 72%) of the phenotypic covariance. Sensitivity analyses using weight, BMI and ponderal index as the offspring phenotype at all ages showed similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

Offspring genotype explains a substantial fraction of the covariance between maternal BMI and offspring adolescent BMI. This is consistent with a potentially important role for genetic confounding as a driver of the maternal BMI-offspring BMI association.

Metabolomics analysis in adults with high bone mass identifies a relationship between bone resorption and circulating citrate which replicates in the general population

OBJECTIVE

Bone turnover, which regulates bone mass, may exert metabolic consequences, particularly on markers of glucose metabolism and adiposity. To better understand these relationships, we examined cross-sectional associations between bone turnover markers (BTMs) and metabolic traits in a population with high bone mass (HBM, BMD Z-score ≥+3.2).

DESIGN

β-C-terminal telopeptide of type-I collagen (β-CTX), procollagen type-1 amino-terminal propeptide (P1NP) and osteocalcin were assessed by electrochemiluminescence immunoassays. Metabolic traits, including lipids and glycolysis-related metabolites, were measured using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Associations of BTMs with metabolic traits were assessed using generalized estimating equation linear regression, accounting for within-family correlation, adjusting for potential confounders (age, sex, height, weight, menopause, bisphosphonate and oral glucocorticoid use).

RESULTS

A total of 198 adults with HBM had complete data, mean [SD] age 61.6 [13.7] years; 77% were female. Of 23 summary metabolic traits, citrate was positively related to all BTMs: adjusted ββ-CTX  = 0.050 (95% CI 0.024, 0.076), P = 1.71 × 10-4 , βosteocalcin  = 6.54 × 10-4 (1.87 × 10-4 , 0.001), P = .006 and βP1NP  = 2.40 × 10-4 (6.49 × 10-5 , 4.14 × 10-4 ), P = .007 (β = increase in citrate (mmol/L) per 1 µg/L BTM increase). Inverse relationships of β-CTX (β = -0.276 [-0.434, -0.118], P = 6.03 × 10-4 ) and osteocalcin (-0.004 [-0.007, -0.001], P = .020) with triglycerides were also identified. We explored the generalizability of these associations in 3664 perimenopausal women (age 47.9 [4.4] years) from a UK family cohort. We confirmed a positive, albeit lower magnitude, association between β-CTX and citrate (adjusted βwomen  = 0.020 [0.013, 0.026], P = 1.95 × 10-9 ) and an inverse association of similar magnitude between β-CTX and triglycerides (β = -0.354 [-0.471, -0.237], P = 3.03 × 10-9 ).

CONCLUSIONS

Bone resorption is positively related to circulating citrate and inversely related to triglycerides. Further studies are justified to determine whether plasma citrate or triglyceride concentrations are altered by factors known to modulate bone resorption, such as bisphosphonates.

Maternal Gestational Diabetes Mellitus and Newborn DNA Methylation: Findings From the Pregnancy and Childhood Epigenetics Consortium

OBJECTIVE

Maternal gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) has been associated with adverse outcomes in the offspring. Growing evidence suggests that the epigenome may play a role, but most previous studies have been small and adjusted for few covariates. The current study meta-analyzed the association between maternal GDM and cord blood DNA methylation in the Pregnancy and Childhood Epigenetics (PACE) consortium.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Seven pregnancy cohorts (3,677 mother-newborn pairs [317 with GDM]) contributed results from epigenome-wide association studies, using DNA methylation data acquired by the Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip array. Associations between GDM and DNA methylation were examined using robust linear regression, with adjustment for potential confounders. Fixed-effects meta-analyses were performed using METAL. Differentially methylated regions (DMRs) were identified by taking the intersection of results obtained using two regional approaches: comb-p and DMRcate.

RESULTS

Two DMRs were identified by both comb-p and DMRcate. Both regions were hypomethylated in newborns exposed to GDM in utero compared with control subjects. One DMR (chr 1: 248100345-248100614) was located in the OR2L13 promoter, and the other (chr 10: 135341870-135342620) was located in the gene body of CYP2E1. Individual CpG analyses did not reveal any differentially methylated loci based on a false discovery rate-adjusted P value threshold of 0.05.

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal GDM was associated with lower cord blood methylation levels within two regions, including the promoter of OR2L13, a gene associated with autism spectrum disorder, and the gene body of CYP2E1, which is upregulated in type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Future studies are needed to understand whether these associations are causal and possible health consequences.

The Parkinson's Disease Mendelian Randomization Research Portal

BACKGROUND

Mendelian randomization is a method for exploring observational associations to find evidence of causality.

OBJECTIVE

To apply Mendelian randomization between risk factors/phenotypic traits (exposures) and PD in a large, unbiased manner, and to create a public resource for research.

METHODS

We used two-sample Mendelian randomization in which the summary statistics relating to single-nucleotide polymorphisms from 5,839 genome-wide association studies of exposures were used to assess causal relationships with PD. We selected the highest-quality exposure genome-wide association studies for this report (n = 401). For the disease outcome, summary statistics from the largest published PD genome-wide association studies were used. For each exposure, the causal effect on PD was assessed using the inverse variance weighted method, followed by a range of sensitivity analyses. We used a false discovery rate of 5% from the inverse variance weighted analysis to prioritize exposures of interest.

RESULTS

We observed evidence for causal associations between 12 exposures and risk of PD. Of these, nine were effects related to increasing adiposity and decreasing risk of PD. The remaining top three exposures that affected PD risk were tea drinking, time spent watching television, and forced vital capacity, but these may have been biased and were less convincing. Other exposures at nominal statistical significance included inverse effects of smoking and alcohol.

CONCLUSIONS

We present a new platform which offers Mendelian randomization analyses for a total of 5,839 genome-wide association studies versus the largest PD genome-wide association studies available (https://pdgenetics.shinyapps.io/MRportal/). Alongside, we report further evidence to support a causal role for adiposity on lowering the risk of PD. © 2019 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Employment and health of working parents: a joint effort to uncover hidden treasures in birth cohorts

Key messages

Birth cohorts hide a treasure of occupational and health information of young working parents. OMEGA-NET has plans to dig them out to investigate their interplay.

Associations of cord leptin and cord insulin with adiposity and blood pressure in White British and Pakistani children aged 4/5 years

Background: Cord leptin and cord insulin concentrations may be important biomarkers of child adiposity and cardiovascular health, especially in populations with an increased long-term risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. We aimed to determine whether cord leptin and insulin are associated with adiposity and early cardiovascular health at age 4/5, and whether any associations differ between White British and Pakistani children. Methods: Using bi-ethnic cohort data from 6060 mother-offspring pairs (2717 (44.8%) White British, 3343 (55.2%) Pakistani), we examined associations of cord leptin and insulin with adiposity (BMI, skinfold thickness) and systolic and diastolic blood pressure at age 4/5. Results: Cord leptin and insulin were higher in Pakistani compared to White British children (7.4 ng/ml versus 6.7 ng/ml and 4.1 mU/L versus 3.63 mU/L , respectively). Associations with adiposity measurements were similar in both groups and close to the null value. For example, each 10 ng/ml higher cord leptin was associated with a difference in mean childhood BMI of 0.10 kg/m 2 (95% CI 0.01, 0.19) in White British, 0.01 kg/m 2 (95% CI -0.08, 0.10) in Pakistani and 0.04 kg/m 2 (95% CI -0.02, 0.11) in both groups combined.  Associations with systolic and diastolic blood pressure were also close to the null and consistent in both groups. Conclusions: We found no evidence that cord leptin or insulin were likely to be valuable biomarkers for predicting later adiposity and blood pressure in White British or Pakistani children. For now, other factors such as family history and social-economic status may be more useful markers of risk.

Morning plasma cortisol as a cardiovascular risk factor: findings from prospective cohort and Mendelian randomization studies

OBJECTIVE

The identification of new causal risk factors has the potential to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction and the development of new treatments to reduce CVD deaths. In the general population, we sought to determine whether cortisol is a causal risk factor for CVD and coronary heart disease (CHD).

DESIGN AND METHODS

Three approaches were adopted to investigate the association between cortisol and CVD/CHD. First, we used multivariable regression in two prospective nested case-control studies (total 798 participants, 313 incident CVD/CHD with complete data). Second, a random-effects meta-analysis of these data and previously published prospective associations was performed (total 6680 controls, 696 incident CVD/CHD). Finally, one- and two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses were performed (122,737 CHD cases, 547,261 controls for two-sample analyses).

RESULTS

In the two prospective nested case-control studies, logistic regression adjusting for sex, age, BMI, smoking and time of sampling, demonstrated a positive association between morning plasma cortisol and incident CVD (OR: 1.28 per 1 SD higher cortisol, 95% CI: 1.06-1.54). In the meta-analysis of prospective studies, the equivalent result was OR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.06-1.31. Results from the two-sample Mendelian randomization were consistent with these positive associations: OR: 1.06, 95% CI: 0.98-1.15.

CONCLUSIONS

All three approaches demonstrated a positive association between morning plasma cortisol and incident CVD. Together, these findings suggest that elevated morning cortisol is a causal risk factor for CVD. The current data suggest strategies targeted at lowering cortisol action should be evaluated for their effects on CVD.

Paternal impact on the life course development of obesity and type 2 diabetes in the offspring

The aetiologies of obesity and type 2 diabetes are incredibly complex, but the potential role of paternal influences remains relatively understudied. A better understanding of paternal influences on offspring risk of obesity and type 2 diabetes could have profound implications for public health, clinical practice and society. In this review, we outline potential biological and social mechanisms through which fathers might exert an impact on the health of their offspring. We also present a systematically compiled overview of the current evidence linking paternal factors to offspring development of obesity and type 2 diabetes throughout the life course. Although evidence is accumulating to support paternal associations with offspring outcomes, more high-quality research is needed to overcome specific methodological challenges and provide stronger causal evidence.

Metabolic profiling of adolescent non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Background: Adolescent non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with cardiometabolic risk factors. The association between adolescent NAFLD and a wide range of metabolic biomarkers is unclear. We have attempted to determine the differences in metabolic profile of adolescents with and without markers of NAFLD. Methods: We performed cross-sectional analyses in a sample of 3,048 participants from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children at age 17. We used three indicators of NAFLD: ALT >40 U/l; AST >40 U/l and ultrasound scan-assessed steatosis. Associations between each measure of NAFLD and 154 metabolic traits, assessed by Nuclear Magnetic Resonance, were analyzed by multivariable linear regression, adjusting for age, sex and BMI. Results: All three indicators of NAFLD were associated with ~0.5 standard deviation (SD) greater concentrations of all extremely large to small very low-density lipoproteins (VLDL) measures. ALT >40U/l was associated with ~0.5SD greater concentrations of very small VLDLs, intermediate-density lipoproteins and low-density lipoproteins. Concentrations of most cholesterols, including remnant cholesterol, all triglycerides and monounsaturated fatty acids, in addition to glycoprotein acetyls (inflammatory marker), were also higher in participants with NAFLD. Conclusions: We have identified differing metabolic profiles between adolescents with and without indicators of NAFLD. These results provide the foundations for future research to determine whether these differences persist and result in adverse future cardiometabolic health.

Metabolic profiling of adolescent non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Background: Adolescent non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with cardiometabolic risk factors. The association between adolescent NAFLD and a wide range of metabolic biomarkers is unclear. We have attempted to determine the differences in metabolic profile of adolescents with and without markers of NAFLD. Methods: We performed cross-sectional analyses in a sample of 3,048 participants from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children at age 17. We used three indicators of NAFLD: ALT >40 U/l; AST >40 U/l and ultrasound scan-assessed steatosis. Associations between each measure of NAFLD and 154 metabolic traits, assessed by Nuclear Magnetic Resonance, were analyzed by multivariable linear regression, adjusting for age, sex and BMI. Results: All three indicators of NAFLD were associated with ~0.5 standard deviation (SD) greater concentrations of all extremely large to small very low-density lipoproteins (VLDL) measures. ALT >40U/l was associated with ~0.5SD greater concentrations of very small VLDLs, intermediate-density lipoproteins and low-density lipoproteins. Concentrations of most cholesterols, including remnant cholesterol, all triglycerides and monounsaturated fatty acids, in addition to glycoprotein acetyls (inflammatory marker), were also higher in participants with NAFLD. Conclusions: We have identified differing metabolic profiles between adolescents with and without indicators of NAFLD. These results provide the foundations for future research to determine whether these differences persist and result in adverse future cardiometabolic health.

Blood pressure change across pregnancy in white British and Pakistani women: analysis of data from the Born in Bradford cohort

The incidence of gestational hypertension (GH) and pre-eclampsia (PE) is increasing. Use of blood pressure (BP) change patterns may improve early detection of BP abnormalities. We used Linear spline random-effects models to estimate BP patterns across pregnancy for white British and Pakistani women. Pakistani women compared to white British women had lower BP during the first two trimesters of pregnancy, irrespective of the development of GH or PE or presence of a risk factor. Pakistani compared to white British women with GH and PE showed steeper BP increases towards the end of pregnancy. Pakistani women were half as likely to develop GH, but as likely to develop PE than white British women. To conclude; BP trajectories differ by ethnicity. Because GH developed evenly from 20 weeks gestation, and PE occurred more commonly after 36 weeks in both ethnic groups, the lower BP up to the third trimester in Pakistani women resulted in a lower GH rate, whereas PE rates, influenced by the steep third trimester BP increase were similar. Criteria for diagnosing GH and PE may benefit from considering ethnic differences in BP change across pregnancy.

Sex and area differences in the association between adiposity and lipid profile in Malawi

Background

Evidence from high-income countries shows that higher adiposity results in an adverse lipid profile, but it is unclear whether this association is similar in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) populations. This study aimed to assess the association between total and central adiposity measures and lipid profile in Malawi, exploring differences by sex and area of residence (rural/urban).

Methods

In this cross-sectional study, data from 12 096 rural and 12 847 urban Malawian residents were used. The associations of body mass index (BMI) and waist to hip ratio (WHR) with fasting lipids (total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) and triglycerides (TG)) were assessed by area and sex.

Results

After adjusting for potential confounders, higher BMI and WHR were linearly associated with increased TC, LDL-C and TG and reduced HDL-C. BMI was more strongly related to fasting lipids than was WHR. The associations of adiposity with adverse lipid profile were stronger in rural compared with urban residents. For instance, one SD increase in BMI was associated with 0.23 mmol/L (95% CI 0.19 to 0.26) increase in TC in rural women and 0.13 mmol/L (95% CI 0.11 to 0.15) in urban women. Sex differences in the associations between adiposity and lipids were less evident.

Conclusions

The consistent associations observed of higher adiposity with adverse lipid profiles in men and women living in rural and urban areas of Malawi highlight the emerging adverse cardio-metabolic epidemic in this poor population. Our findings underline the potential utility of BMI in estimating cardiovascular risk and highlight the need for greater investment to understand the long-term health outcomes of obesity and adverse lipid profiles and the extent to which lifestyle changes and treatments effectively prevent and modify adverse cardio-metabolic outcomes.

Variants in the fetal genome near pro-inflammatory cytokine genes on 2q13 associate with gestational duration

The duration of pregnancy is influenced by fetal and maternal genetic and non-genetic factors. Here we report a fetal genome-wide association meta-analysis of gestational duration, and early preterm, preterm, and postterm birth in 84,689 infants. One locus on chromosome 2q13 is associated with gestational duration; the association is replicated in 9,291 additional infants (combined P = 3.96 × 10⁻¹⁴). Analysis of 15,588 mother-child pairs shows that the association is driven by fetal rather than maternal genotype. Functional experiments show that the lead SNP, rs7594852, alters the binding of the HIC1 transcriptional repressor. Genes at the locus include several interleukin 1 family members with roles in pro-inflammatory pathways that are central to the process of parturition. Further understanding of the underlying mechanisms will be of great public health importance, since giving birth either before or after the window of term gestation is associated with increased morbidity and mortality.

Gestational duration depends on both maternal and fetal genetic influences. Here, the authors perform a fetal genome-wide association meta-analysis and find that a locus on 2q13 is associated with pregnancy duration and further show that the lead SNP rs7594852 changes the binding properties of transcriptional repressor HIC1.

GWAS on longitudinal growth traits reveals different genetic factors influencing infant, child, and adult BMI

Early childhood growth patterns are associated with adult health, yet the genetic factors and the developmental stages involved are not fully understood. Here, we combine genome-wide association studies with modeling of longitudinal growth traits to study the genetics of infant and child growth, followed by functional, pathway, genetic correlation, risk score, and colocalization analyses to determine how developmental timings, molecular pathways, and genetic determinants of these traits overlap with those of adult health. We found a robust overlap between the genetics of child and adult body mass index (BMI), with variants associated with adult BMI acting as early as 4 to 6 years old. However, we demonstrated a completely distinct genetic makeup for peak BMI during infancy, influenced by variation at the LEPR/LEPROT locus. These findings suggest that different genetic factors control infant and child BMI. In light of the obesity epidemic, these findings are important to inform the timing and targets of prevention strategies.

Mendelian randomization study shows no causal relationship between circulating urate levels and Parkinson's disease

Objective

Observational studies have shown that increased plasma urate is associated with lower risk of Parkinson’s disease (PD), but these studies were not designed to test causality. If a causal relationship exists, then modulating plasma urate levels could be a potential preventive avenue for PD. We used a large two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) design to assess for a causal relationship between plasma urate and PD risk.

Methods

We used a genetic instrument consisting of 31 independent loci for plasma urate on a case-control genome-wide association study data set, which included 13,708 PD cases and 95,282 controls. Individual effect estimates for each SNP were combined using the inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method. Two additional methods, MR-Egger and a penalized weighted median (PWM)-based approach, were used to assess potential bias attributed to pleiotropy or invalid instruments.

Results

We found no evidence for a causal relationship between urate and PD, with an effect estimate from the IVW method of odds ratio (OR) 1.03 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.88–1.20) per 1-standard-deviation increase in plasma urate levels. MR Egger and PWM analyses yielded similar estimates (OR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.83–1.17] and 0.99 [95% CI, 0.86−1.14], respectively).

Interpretation

We did not find evidence for a linear causal protective effect by urate on PD risk. The associations observed in previous observational studies may be, in part, attributed to confounding or reverse causality. In the context of the present findings, strategies to elevate circulating urate levels may not reduce overall PD risk.

Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy and DNA Methylation in Newborns

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) are associated with low birth weight, shorter gestational age, and increased risk of maternal and offspring cardiovascular diseases later in life. The mechanisms involved are poorly understood, but epigenetic regulation of gene expression may play a part. We performed meta-analyses in the Pregnancy and Childhood Epigenetics Consortium to test the association between either maternal HDP (10 cohorts; n=5242 [cases=476]) or preeclampsia (3 cohorts; n=2219 [cases=135]) and epigenome-wide DNA methylation in cord blood using the Illumina HumanMethylation450 BeadChip. In models adjusted for confounders, and with Bonferroni correction, HDP and preeclampsia were associated with DNA methylation at 43 and 26 CpG sites, respectively. HDP was associated with higher methylation at 27 (63%) of the 43 sites, and across all 43 sites, the mean absolute difference in methylation was between 0.6% and 2.6%. Epigenome-wide associations of HDP with offspring DNA methylation were modestly consistent with the equivalent epigenome-wide associations of preeclampsia with offspring DNA methylation (R2=0.26). In longitudinal analyses conducted in 1 study (n=108 HDP cases; 550 controls), there were similar changes in DNA methylation in offspring of those with and without HDP up to adolescence. Pathway analysis suggested that genes located at/near HDP-associated sites may be involved in developmental, embryogenesis, or neurological pathways. HDP is associated with offspring DNA methylation with potential relevance to development.

A Cross-Cohort Study Examining the Associations of Metabolomic Profile and Subclinical Atherosclerosis in Children and Their Parents: The Child Health CheckPoint Study and Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children

Background High-throughput nuclear magnetic resonance profiling of circulating metabolites is suggested as an adjunct for cardiovascular risk evaluation. The relationship between metabolites and subclinical atherosclerosis remains unclear, particularly among children. Therefore, we examined the associations of metabolites with carotid intima-media thickness ( cIMT ) and arterial pulse wave velocity ( PWV ). Methods and Results Data from two independent population-based studies was examined; (1) cross-sectional associations with cIMT and PWV in 1178 children (age 11-12 years, 51% female) and 1316 parents (mean age 45 years, 87% female) from the CheckPoint study (Australia); and (2) longitudinal associations in 4249 children (metabolites at 7-8 years, PWV at 10-11 years, 52% female), and cross-sectional associations in 4171 of their mothers (mean age 48 years, cIMT data) from ALSPAC (The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children; UK ). Metabolites were measured by the same nuclear magnetic resonance platform in both studies, comprising of 69 biomarkers. Biophysical assessments included body mass index, blood pressure, cIMT and PWV . In linear regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and blood pressure, there was no evidence of metabolite associations in either children or adults for cIMT at a 10% false discovery threshold. In CheckPoint adults, glucose was positively, and some high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol derived measures and amino acids (glutamine, histidine, tyrosine) inversely associated with PWV. Conclusions These data suggest that in children circulating metabolites have no consistent association with cIMT and PWV once adjusted for body mass index and blood pressure. In their middle-aged parents, some evidence of metabolite associations with PWV were identified that warrant further investigation.

Association between fat mass through adolescence and arterial stiffness: a population-based study from The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children

BACKGROUND

The link between adiposity, metabolic abnormalities, and arterial disease progression in children and adolescents remains poorly defined. We aimed to assess whether persistent high adiposity levels are associated with increased arterial stiffness in adolescence and any mediation effects by common metabolic risk factors.

METHODS

We included participants from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) who had detailed adiposity measurements between the ages 9-17 years and arterial stiffness (carotid to femoral pulse wave velocity [PWV]) measured at age 17 years. Body-mass index (BMI) and waist-to-height ratio were calculated from weight, height, and waist circumference measurements whereas fat mass was assessed using repeated dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) scans. We used total and trunk fat mass indices (FMIs) to classify participants as normal (<75th percentile) or high (>75th percentile) FMI. We classified participants as being metabolically unhealthy if they had three or more of the following risk factors: high levels of systolic blood pressure, triglycerides, or glucose (all >75th percentile) or low levels of high-density lipoprotein (<25th percentile). We used multivariable linear regression analysis to assess the relationship between PWV and exposure to adiposity, and tested for linear trend of PVW levels across ordinal groups. We used latent class growth mixture modelling analysis to assess the effect of longitudinal changes in adiposity indices through adolescence on arterial stiffness.

FINDINGS

We studied 3423 participants (1866 [54·5%] female and 1557 [45·5%] male). Total fat mass was positively associated with PWV at age 17 years (0·004 m/s per kg, 95% CI 0·001-0·006; p=0·0081). Persistently high total FMI and trunk FMI between ages 9 and 17 years were related to greater PWV (0·15 m/s per kg/m2, 0·05-0·24; p=0·0044 and 0·15 m/s per kg/m2, 0·06-0·25; p=0·0021) compared with lower FMI. Metabolic abnormalities amplified the adverse effect of high total FMI on arterial stiffness (PWV 6·0 m/s [95% CI 5·9-6·0] for metabolically healthy participants and 6·2 m/s [5·9-6·4] for metabolically unhealthy participants). Participants who restored normal total FMI in adolescence (PWV 5·8 m/s [5·7-5·9] for metabolically healthy and 5·9 m/s [5·6-6·1] for metabolically unhealthy) had comparable PWV to those who had normal FMI throughout (5·7 m/s [5·7-5·8] for metabolically healthy and 5·9 m/s [5·8-5·9] for metabolically unhealthy).

INTERPRETATION

Persistently high fat mass during adolescence was associated with greater arterial stiffness and was further aggravated by an unfavourable metabolic profile. Reverting to normal FMI in adolescence was associated with normal PWV, suggesting adolescence as an important period for interventions to tackle obesity in the young to maximise long-term vascular health.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, British Heart Foundation, and AFA Insurances.

Breech presentation is associated with lower adolescent tibial bone strength

We compared bone outcomes in adolescents with breech and cephalic presentation. Tibia bone mineral content, density, periosteal circumference, and cross-sectional moment of inertia were lower in breech presentation, and females with breech presentation had lower hip CSA. These findings suggest that prenatal loading may exert long-lasting influences on skeletal development.

INTRODUCTION

Breech position during pregnancy is associated with reduced range of fetal movement, and with lower limb joint stresses. Breech presentation at birth is associated with lower neonatal bone mineral content (BMC) and area, but it is unknown whether these associations persist into later life.

METHODS

We examined associations between presentation at onset of labor, and tibia and hip bone outcomes at age 17 years in 1971 participants (1062 females) from a UK prospective birth cohort that recruited > 15,000 pregnant women in 1991-1992. Cortical BMC, cross-sectional area (CSA) and bone mineral density (BMD), periosteal circumference, and cross-sectional moment of inertia (CSMI) were measured by peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) at 50% tibia length. Total hip BMC, bone area, BMD, and CSMI were measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA).

RESULTS

In models adjusted for sex, age, maternal education, smoking, parity, and age, singleton/multiple births, breech presentation (n = 102) was associated with lower tibial cortical BMC (- 0.14SD, 95% CI - 0.29 to 0.00), CSA (- 0.12SD, - 0.26 to 0.02), BMD (- 0.16SD, - 0.31 to - 0.01), periosteal circumference (- 0.14SD, - 0.27 to - 0.01), and CSMI (- 0.11SD, - 0.24 to 0.01). In females only, breech presentation was associated with lower hip CSA (- 0.24SD, - 0.43 to 0.00) but not with other hip outcomes. Additional adjustment for potential mediators (delivery method, birthweight, gestational age, childhood motor competence and adolescent height and body composition) did not substantially affect associations with either tibia or hip outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that prenatal skeletal loading may exert long-lasting influences on skeletal size and strength but require replication.

Investigating causal relations between sleep traits and risk of breast cancer in women: mendelian randomisation study

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether sleep traits have a causal effect on risk of breast cancer.

DESIGN

Mendelian randomisation study.

SETTING

UK Biobank prospective cohort study and Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) case-control genome-wide association study.

PARTICIPANTS

156 848 women in the multivariable regression and one sample mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis in UK Biobank (7784 with a breast cancer diagnosis) and 122 977 breast cancer cases and 105 974 controls from BCAC in the two sample MR analysis.

EXPOSURES

Self reported chronotype (morning or evening preference), insomnia symptoms, and sleep duration in multivariable regression, and genetic variants robustly associated with these sleep traits.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Breast cancer diagnosis.

RESULTS

In multivariable regression analysis using UK Biobank data on breast cancer incidence, morning preference was inversely associated with breast cancer (hazard ratio 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.93 to 0.98 per category increase), whereas there was little evidence for an association between sleep duration and insomnia symptoms. Using 341 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with chronotype, 91 SNPs associated with sleep duration, and 57 SNPs associated with insomnia symptoms, one sample MR analysis in UK Biobank provided some supportive evidence for a protective effect of morning preference on breast cancer risk (0.85, 0.70, 1.03 per category increase) but imprecise estimates for sleep duration and insomnia symptoms. Two sample MR using data from BCAC supported findings for a protective effect of morning preference (inverse variance weighted odds ratio 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.82 to 0.93 per category increase) and adverse effect of increased sleep duration (1.19, 1.02 to 1.39 per hour increase) on breast cancer risk (both oestrogen receptor positive and oestrogen receptor negative), whereas evidence for insomnia symptoms was inconsistent. Results were largely robust to sensitivity analyses accounting for horizontal pleiotropy.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings showed consistent evidence for a protective effect of morning preference and suggestive evidence for an adverse effect of increased sleep duration on breast cancer risk.

Associations of mortality with own blood pressure using son's blood pressure as an instrumental variable

High systolic blood pressure (SBP) causes cardiovascular disease (CVD) and is associated with mortality from other causes, but conventional multivariably-adjusted results may be confounded. Here we used a son’s SBP (>1 million Swedish men) as an instrumental variable for parental SBP and examined associations with parents’ cause-specific mortality, avoiding reverse causation. The hazard ratio for CVD mortality per SD (10.80 mmHg) of SBP was 1.49 (95% CI: 1.43, 1.56); SBP was positively associated with coronary heart disease and stroke. SBP was also associated positively with all-cause, diabetes and kidney cancer mortality, and negatively with external causes. Negative associations with respiratory-related mortality were probably confounded by smoking. Hazard ratios for other causes were imprecise or null. Diastolic blood pressure gave similar results to SBP. CVD hazard ratios were intermediate between those from conventional multivariable studies and Mendelian randomization and stronger than those from clinical trials, approximately consistent with an effect of exposure duration on effect sizes. Plots of parental mortality against offspring SBP were approximately linear, supporting calls for lower SBP targets. Results suggest that conventional multivariable analyses of mortality and SBP are not substantially confounded by reverse causation and confirm positive effects of SBP on all-cause, CVD and diabetes mortality.

Association of maternal circulating 25(OH)D and calcium with birth weight: A mendelian randomisation analysis

BACKGROUND

Systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have suggested that maternal vitamin D (25[OH]D) and calcium supplementation increase birth weight. However, limitations of many trials were highlighted in the reviews. Our aim was to combine genetic and RCT data to estimate causal effects of these two maternal traits on offspring birth weight.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We performed two-sample mendelian randomisation (MR) using genetic instrumental variables associated with 25(OH)D and calcium that had been identified in genome-wide association studies (GWAS; sample 1; N = 122,123 for 25[OH]D and N = 61,275 for calcium). Associations between these maternal genetic variants and offspring birth weight were calculated in the UK Biobank (UKB) (sample 2; N = 190,406). We used data on mother-child pairs from two United Kingdom birth cohorts (combined N = 5,223) in sensitivity analyses to check whether results were influenced by fetal genotype, which is correlated with the maternal genotype (r ≈ 0.5). Further sensitivity analyses to test the reliability of the results included MR-Egger, weighted-median estimator, 'leave-one-out', and multivariable MR analyses. We triangulated MR results with those from RCTs, in which we used randomisation to supplementation with vitamin D (24 RCTs, combined N = 5,276) and calcium (6 RCTs, combined N = 543) as an instrumental variable to determine the effects of 25(OH)D and calcium on birth weight. In the main MR analysis, there was no strong evidence of an effect of maternal 25(OH)D on birth weight (difference in mean birth weight -0.03 g [95% CI -2.48 to 2.42 g, p = 0.981] per 10% higher maternal 25[OH]D). The effect estimate was consistent across our MR sensitivity analyses. Instrumental variable analyses applied to RCTs suggested a weak positive causal effect (5.94 g [95% CI 2.15-9.73, p = 0.002] per 10% higher maternal 25[OH]D), but this result may be exaggerated because of risk of bias in the included RCTs. The main MR analysis for maternal calcium also suggested no strong evidence of an effect on birth weight (-20 g [95% CI -44 to 5 g, p = 0.116] per 1 SD higher maternal calcium level). Some sensitivity analyses suggested that the genetic instrument for calcium was associated with birth weight via exposures that are independent of calcium levels (horizontal pleiotropy). Application of instrumental variable analyses to RCTs suggested that calcium has a substantial effect on birth weight (178 g [95% CI 121-236 g, p = 1.43 × 10-9] per 1 SD higher maternal calcium level) that was not consistent with any of the MR results. However, the RCT instrumental variable estimate may have been exaggerated because of risk of bias in the included RCTs. Other study limitations include the low response rate of UK Biobank, which may bias MR estimates, and the lack of suitable data to test whether the effects of genetic instruments on maternal calcium levels during pregnancy were the same as those outside of pregnancy.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that maternal circulating 25(OH)D does not influence birth weight in otherwise healthy newborns. However, the effect of maternal circulating calcium on birth weight is unclear and requires further exploration with more research including RCT and/or MR analyses with more valid instruments.

Improving the accuracy of two-sample summary-data Mendelian randomization: moving beyond the NOME assumption

BACKGROUND

Two-sample summary-data Mendelian randomization (MR) incorporating multiple genetic variants within a meta-analysis framework is a popular technique for assessing causality in epidemiology. If all genetic variants satisfy the instrumental variable (IV) and necessary modelling assumptions, then their individual ratio estimates of causal effect should be homogeneous. Observed heterogeneity signals that one or more of these assumptions could have been violated.

METHODS

Causal estimation and heterogeneity assessment in MR require an approximation for the variance, or equivalently the inverse-variance weight, of each ratio estimate. We show that the most popular 'first-order' weights can lead to an inflation in the chances of detecting heterogeneity when in fact it is not present. Conversely, ostensibly more accurate 'second-order' weights can dramatically increase the chances of failing to detect heterogeneity when it is truly present. We derive modified weights to mitigate both of these adverse effects.

RESULTS

Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the modified weights outperform first- and second-order weights in terms of heterogeneity quantification. Modified weights are also shown to remove the phenomenon of regression dilution bias in MR estimates obtained from weak instruments, unlike those obtained using first- and second-order weights. However, with small numbers of weak instruments, this comes at the cost of a reduction in estimate precision and power to detect a causal effect compared with first-order weighting. Moreover, first-order weights always furnish unbiased estimates and preserve the type I error rate under the causal null. We illustrate the utility of the new method using data from a recent two-sample summary-data MR analysis to assess the causal role of systolic blood pressure on coronary heart disease risk.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose the use of modified weights within two-sample summary-data MR studies for accurately quantifying heterogeneity and detecting outliers in the presence of weak instruments. Modified weights also have an important role to play in terms of causal estimation (in tandem with first-order weights) but further research is required to understand their strengths and weaknesses in specific settings.

Elevated Blood Pressure in Adolescence Is Attributable to a Combination of Elevated Cardiac Output and Total Peripheral Resistance

Unlike in older people, it has been suggested that elevated blood pressure (BP) in young people is because of high cardiac output accompanied by normal total peripheral resistance (TPR)-a hyperkinetic/hyperdynamic circulation. We investigated this in a large, United Kingdom-based birth cohort of adolescents. The study was conducted on 2091 17-year-old participants in the ALSPAC (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children)-a prospective population-based birth cohort study. BP measurement and echocardiography were performed, and heart rate (HR), stroke volume (SV), and TPR were calculated. Data are means (SD). Higher quintiles of systolic BP were associated with higher SV, higher HR, and higher TPR. The proportional contribution made by SV, HR, and TPR to mean arterial pressure differed little by systolic BP quintile (SV [32%-34%], HR [25%-29%], and TPR [39%-41%]). Higher BP is attributable to a combination of higher cardiac output (ie, SV×HR) and higher TPR in a population-based sample of adolescents. There is no evidence of a disproportionate contribution from elevated cardiac output at higher BP levels.

Association of Gestational Weight Gain With Adverse Maternal and Infant Outcomes

Importance

Both low and high gestational weight gain have been associated with adverse maternal and infant outcomes, but optimal gestational weight gain remains uncertain and not well defined for all prepregnancy weight ranges.

Objectives

To examine the association of ranges of gestational weight gain with risk of adverse maternal and infant outcomes and estimate optimal gestational weight gain ranges across prepregnancy body mass index categories.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Individual participant-level meta-analysis using data from 196 670 participants within 25 cohort studies from Europe and North America (main study sample). Optimal gestational weight gain ranges were estimated for each prepregnancy body mass index (BMI) category by selecting the range of gestational weight gain that was associated with lower risk for any adverse outcome. Individual participant-level data from 3505 participants within 4 separate hospital-based cohorts were used as a validation sample. Data were collected between 1989 and 2015. The final date of follow-up was December 2015.

Exposures

Gestational weight gain.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcome termed any adverse outcome was defined as the presence of 1 or more of the following outcomes: preeclampsia, gestational hypertension, gestational diabetes, cesarean delivery, preterm birth, and small or large size for gestational age at birth.

Results

Of the 196 670 women (median age, 30.0 years [quartile 1 and 3, 27.0 and 33.0 years] and 40 937 were white) included in the main sample, 7809 (4.0%) were categorized at baseline as underweight (BMI <18.5); 133 788 (68.0%), normal weight (BMI, 18.5-24.9); 38 828 (19.7%), overweight (BMI, 25.0-29.9); 11 992 (6.1%), obesity grade 1 (BMI, 30.0-34.9); 3284 (1.7%), obesity grade 2 (BMI, 35.0-39.9); and 969 (0.5%), obesity grade 3 (BMI, ≥40.0). Overall, any adverse outcome occurred in 37.2% (n = 73 161) of women, ranging from 34.7% (2706 of 7809) among women categorized as underweight to 61.1% (592 of 969) among women categorized as obesity grade 3. Optimal gestational weight gain ranges were 14.0 kg to less than 16.0 kg for women categorized as underweight; 10.0 kg to less than 18.0 kg for normal weight; 2.0 kg to less than 16.0 kg for overweight; 2.0 kg to less than 6.0 kg for obesity grade 1; weight loss or gain of 0 kg to less than 4.0 kg for obesity grade 2; and weight gain of 0 kg to less than 6.0 kg for obesity grade 3. These gestational weight gain ranges were associated with low to moderate discrimination between those with and those without adverse outcomes (range for area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.55-0.76). Results for discriminative performance in the validation sample were similar to the corresponding results in the main study sample (range for area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.51-0.79).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this meta-analysis of pooled individual participant data from 25 cohort studies, the risk for adverse maternal and infant outcomes varied by gestational weight gain and across the range of prepregnancy weights. The estimates of optimal gestational weight gain may inform prenatal counseling; however, the optimal gestational weight gain ranges had limited predictive value for the outcomes assessed.

Maternal and fetal genetic effects on birth weight and their relevance to cardio-metabolic risk factors

Birth weight variation is influenced by fetal and maternal genetic and non-genetic factors, and has been reproducibly associated with future cardio-metabolic health outcomes. In expanded genome-wide association analyses of own birth weight (n = 321,223) and offspring birth weight (n = 230,069 mothers), we identified 190 independent association signals (129 of which are novel). We used structural equation modeling to decompose the contributions of direct fetal and indirect maternal genetic effects, then applied Mendelian randomization to illuminate causal pathways. For example, both indirect maternal and direct fetal genetic effects drive the observational relationship between lower birth weight and higher later blood pressure: maternal blood pressure-raising alleles reduce offspring birth weight, but only direct fetal effects of these alleles, once inherited, increase later offspring blood pressure. Using maternal birth weight-lowering genotypes to proxy for an adverse intrauterine environment provided no evidence that it causally raises offspring blood pressure, indicating that the inverse birth weight-blood pressure association is attributable to genetic effects, and not to intrauterine programming.

Meta-analysis of epigenome-wide association studies in neonates reveals widespread differential DNA methylation associated with birthweight

Birthweight is associated with health outcomes across the life course, DNA methylation may be an underlying mechanism. In this meta-analysis of epigenome-wide association studies of 8,825 neonates from 24 birth cohorts in the Pregnancy And Childhood Epigenetics Consortium, we find that DNA methylation in neonatal blood is associated with birthweight at 914 sites, with a difference in birthweight ranging from -183 to 178 grams per 10% increase in methylation (PBonferroni < 1.06 x 10-7). In additional analyses in 7,278 participants, <1.3% of birthweight-associated differential methylation is also observed in childhood and adolescence, but not adulthood. Birthweight-related CpGs overlap with some Bonferroni-significant CpGs that were previously reported to be related to maternal smoking (55/914, p = 6.12 x 10-74) and BMI in pregnancy (3/914, p = 1.13x10-3), but not with those related to folate levels in pregnancy. Whether the associations that we observe are causal or explained by confounding or fetal growth influencing DNA methylation (i.e. reverse causality) requires further research.