A review of the effectiveness and experiences of welfare advice services co-located in health settings: A critical narrative systematic review

We conducted a narrative systematic review to assess the health, social and financial impacts of co-located welfare services in the UK and to explore the effectiveness of and facilitators and barriers to successful implementation of these services, in order to guide future policy and practice. We searched Medline, EMBASE and other literature sources, from January 2010 to November 2020, for literature examining the impact of co-located welfare services in the UK on any outcome. The review identified 14 studies employing a range of study designs, including: one non-randomised controlled trial; one pilot randomised controlled trial; one before-and-after-study; three qualitative studies; and eight case studies. A theory of change model, developed a priori, was used as an analytical framework against which to map the evidence on how the services work, why and for whom. All studies demonstrated improved financial security for participants, generating an average of £27 of social, economic and environmental return per £1 invested. Some studies reported improved mental health for individuals accessing services. Several studies attributed subjective improvements in physical health to the service addressing key social determinants of health. Benefits to the health service were also demonstrated through reduced workload for healthcare professionals. Key components of a successful service included co-production during service development and ongoing enhanced multi-disciplinary collaboration. Overall, this review demonstrates improved financial security for participants and for the first time models the wider health and welfare benefits for participants and for health service from these services. However, given the generally poor scientific quality of the studies, care must be taken in drawing firm conclusions. There remains a need for more high quality research, using experimental methods and larger sample sizes, to further build upon this evidence base and to measure the strength of the proposed theoretical pathways in this area.

'When will this end? Will it end?' The impact of the March-June 2020 UK COVID-19 lockdown response on mental health: a longitudinal survey of mothers in the Born in Bradford study

OBJECTIVES

To explore clinically important increases in depression/anxiety from before to during the first UK COVID-19 lockdown and factors related to this change, with a particular focus on ethnic differences.

DESIGN

Pre-COVID-19 and lockdown surveys nested within two longitudinal Born in Bradford cohort studies.

PARTICIPANTS

1860 mothers with a child aged 0-5 or 9-13, 48% Pakistani heritage.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

ORs for a clinically important increase (5 points or more) in depression (eight item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-8)) and anxiety (Generalised Anxiety Disorder Assessment (GAD-7)) in unadjusted regression analyses, repeated with exposures of interest separated by ethnicity to look for differences in magnitude of associations, and lived experience of mothers captured in open text questions.

RESULTS

The number of women reporting clinically important depression/anxiety increased from 11% to 20% (95% CI 10%-13%; 18%-22%) and from 10% to 16% (95% CI 8%-11%; 15%-18%), respectively. Increases in depression/anxiety were associated with loneliness (OR=8.37, 95% CI 5.70 to 12.27; 8.50, 95% CI 5.71 to 12.65, respectively); financial (6.23, 95% CI 3.96 to 9.80; 6.03, 95% CI 3.82 to 9.51), food (3.33, 95% CI 2.09 to 5.28; 3.46, 95% CI 2.15 to 5.58) and housing insecurity (3.29, 95% CI 2.36 to 4.58; 3.0, 95% CI 2.11 to 4.25); a lack of physical activity (3.13, 95% CI 2.15 to 4.56; 2.55, 95% CI 1.72 to 3.78); and a poor partner relationship (3.6, 95% CI 2.44 to 5.43; 5.1, 95% CI 3.37 to 7.62). The magnitude of associations between key exposures and worsening mental health varied between ethnic groups.Responses to open text questions illustrated a complex interplay of challenges contributing to mental ill health including: acute health anxieties; the mental load of managing multiple responsibilities; loss of social support and coping strategies; pressures of financial and employment insecurity; and being unable to switch off from the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Mental ill health has worsened for many during the COVID-19 lockdown, particularly in those who are lonely and economically insecure. The magnitude of associations between key exposures and worsening mental health varied between ethnic groups. Mental health problems may have longer term consequences for public health and interventions that address the potential causes are needed.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in an ethnically diverse community: descriptive findings from the Born in Bradford study

Background: The roll out of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines are underway in the UK, and ensuring good uptake in vulnerable communities will be critical to reducing hospital admissions and deaths. There is emerging evidence that vaccine hesitancy is higher in ethnic minorities and deprived areas, and that this may be caused by distrust and misinformation in the community.  This study aims to understand COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in an ethnically diverse and deprived population of Bradford through the Born in Bradford (BiB) research programme. Methods: Surveys were sent to parents in BiB who had taken part in a previous Covid-19 survey (n=1727). Cross tabulations explored variation by ethnicity and deprivation. Answers to a question asking the main reason for hesitancy was analysed using thematic analysis. Results: 535 (31%) of those invited between 29 th October-9 th December 2020 participated. 48% were White British, 37% Pakistani heritage and 15% from other ethnicities; 46% were from the most deprived quintile of the Index of Multiple Deprivation. 29% of respondents do want a vaccine, 10% do not. The majority had not thought about it (29%) or were unsure (30%). Vaccine hesitancy differed by ethnicity and deprivation: 43% (95% CIs: 37-54%) of White British and 60% (35-81%) in the least deprived areas do want a vaccine, compared to 13% (9-19%) of Pakistani heritage and 20% (15-26%) in the most deprived areas. Reasons for not wanting a vaccine were commonly explained by confusion and distrust which was linked to exposure to misinformation. Conclusions: There is a risk of unequitable roll out of the vaccination programme in the UK with higher vaccine hesitancy in ethnic minorities and those living in deprived areas. There is an urgent need to tackle misinformation that is leading to uncertainty and confusion about the vaccines.

Ethnicity, pre-existing comorbidities, and outcomes of hospitalised patients with COVID-19

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in thousands of deaths in the UK. Those with existing comorbidities and minority ethnic groups have been found to be at increased risk of mortality. We wished to determine if there were any differences in intensive care unit (ICU) admission and 30-day hospital mortality in a city with high levels of deprivation and a large community of people of South Asian heritage.  Methods: Detailed information on 582 COVID-19-positive inpatients in Bradford and Calderdale between February-August 2020 were extracted from Electronic Health Records. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to explore the relationship between ethnicity with admission to ICU and 30-day mortality, respectively accounting for the effect of demographic and clinical confounders. Results: The sample consisted of 408 (70%) White, 142 (24%) South Asian and 32 (6%) other minority ethnic patients. Ethnic minority patients were younger, more likely to live in deprived areas, and be overweight/obese, have type 2 diabetes, hypertension and asthma compared to white patients, but were less likely to have cancer (South Asian patients only) and COPD. Male and obese patients were more likely to be admitted to ICU, and patients of South Asian ethnicity, older age, and those with cancer were less likely. Being male, older age, deprivation, obesity, and cancer were associated with 30-day mortality. The risk of death in South Asian patients was the same as in white patients HR 1.03 (0.58, 1.82). Conclusions: Despite South Asian patients being less likely to be admitted to ICU and having a higher prevalence of diabetes and obesity, there was no difference in the risk of death compared to white patients. This contrasts with other findings and highlights the value of studies of communities which may have different ethnic, deprivation and clinical risk profiles.

Experiences of lockdown during the Covid-19 pandemic: descriptive findings from a survey of families in the Born in Bradford study

Background: Lockdown measures implemented to contain the Covid-19 virus have increased health inequalities, with families from deprived and ethnically diverse backgrounds most likely to be adversely affected. This paper describes the experiences of families living in the multi-ethnic and deprived city of Bradford, England. Methods: A wave of survey data collection using a combination of email, text and phone with postal follow-up during the first Covid-19 UK lockdown (10th April to 30 th June 2020) with parents participating in two longitudinal studies. Cross tabulations explored variation by ethnicity and financial insecurity. Text from open questions was analysed using thematic analysis. Results: Of 7,652 families invited, 2,144 (28%) participated. The results presented are based on the 2,043 (95%) mothers' responses: 957 (47%) of whom were of Pakistani heritage, 715 (35%) White British and 356 (18%) other ethnicity 971 (46%) lived in the most deprived decile of material deprivation in England. and 738 (37%) were financially insecure. Many families lived in poor quality (N=574, 28%), overcrowded (N=364, 19%) housing. Food (N=396, 20%), employment (N=728, 37%) and housing (N=204, 10%) insecurities were common, particularly in those who were furloughed, self-employed not working or unemployed. Clinically important depression and anxiety were reported by 372 (19%) and 318 (16%) mothers. Ethnic minority and financially insecure families had a worse experience during the lockdown across all domains, with the exception of mental health which appeared worse in White British mothers.  Open text responses corroborated these findings and highlighted high levels of anxiety and fear about Covid-19. Conclusions: There is a need for policy makers and commissioners to better support vulnerable families during and after the pandemic. Future work will use longitudinal data from before the pandemic, and from future surveys during the pandemic, to describe trajectories and the long-term consequences of the pandemic on vulnerable populations.

Ethnicity, pre-existing comorbidities, and outcomes of hospitalised patients with COVID-19

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in thousands of deaths in the UK. Those with existing comorbidities and minority ethnic groups have been found to be at increased risk of mortality. We wished to determine if there were any differences in intensive care unit (ICU) admission and 30-day hospital mortality in a city with high levels of deprivation and a large community of people of South Asian heritage.  Methods: Detailed information on 622 COVID-19-positive inpatients in Bradford and Calderdale between February-August 2020 were extracted from Electronic Health Records. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to explore the relationship between ethnicity with admission to ICU and 30-day mortality, respectively accounting for the effect of demographic and clinical confounders. Results: The sample consisted of 408 (70%) White, 142 (24%) South Asian and 32 (6%) other minority ethnic patients. Ethnic minority patients were younger, more likely to live in deprived areas, and be overweight/obese, have type 2 diabetes, hypertension and asthma compared to white patients, but were less likely to have cancer (South Asian patients only) and COPD. Male and obese patients were more likely to be admitted to ICU, and patients of South Asian ethnicity, older age, and those with cancer were less likely. Being male, older age, deprivation, obesity, and cancer were associated with 30-day mortality. The risk of death in South Asian patients was the same as in white patients HR 1.03 (0.58, 1.82). Conclusions: Despite South Asian patients being less likely to be admitted to ICU and having a higher prevalence of diabetes and obesity, there was no difference in the risk of death compared to white patients. This contrasts with other findings and highlights the value of studies of communities which may have different ethnic, deprivation and clinical risk profiles.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in an ethnically diverse community: descriptive findings from the Born in Bradford study

Background: The roll out of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines are now underway in the UK, and ensuring good uptake in vulnerable communities will be critical to reducing hospital admissions and deaths. There is emerging evidence that vaccine hesitancy is higher in ethnic minorities and deprived areas, and that this may be caused by misinformation in the community.  This study aims to understand COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in an ethnically diverse and deprived population. Methods: Questionnaire surveys were sent to parents in the Born in Bradford study. Cross tabulations explored variation by ethnicity and deprivation. Text from open-ended questions was analysed using thematic analysis. Results: 535 (31%) of 1727 invited between 29th October-9th December 2020 participated in the study. 154 (29%) of respondents do want a vaccine, 53 (10%) do not. The majority had not thought about it (N=154, 29%) or were unsure (N=161, 30%). Vaccine hesitancy differed significantly by ethnicity and deprivation: 43% (95% CIs: 37-54%) of White British and 60% (35-81%) in the least deprived areas do want a vaccine, compared to 13% (9-19%) of Pakistani heritage and 20% (15-26%) in the most deprived areas. Those that distrusted the NHS were more likely to not want a vaccine (30%, 15-50%).  Reasons for not wanting a vaccine were commonly explained by confusion and distrust caused by prevalent misinformation. Conclusions: There is a much higher level of vaccine hesitancy in ethnic minorities, those living in deprived areas and those that distrust the NHS. There is an urgent need to tackle the overwhelming misinformation about COVID-19 that is leading to this uncertainty and confusion about the vaccines. If not addressed there is a high risk of unequitable roll out of the vaccination programme in the UK.

Experiences of lockdown during the Covid-19 pandemic: descriptive findings from a survey of families in the Born in Bradford study

Background: Lockdown measures implemented to contain the Covid-19 virus may be increasing health inequalities, with families from deprived and ethnically diverse backgrounds most likely to be adversely affected. This paper presents findings of the experiences of the Covid-19 lockdown on families living in the multi-ethnic and deprived city of Bradford, England. Methods: Questionnaire surveys were sent during the Covid-19 UK lockdown (10th April to 30 th June 2020) to parents in two prospective birth cohort studies. Cross tabulations explored variation by ethnicity and employment status. Text from open questions were analysed using thematic analysis. Results: Of 7,652 families invited, 2,144 (28%) participated. Ethnicity of respondents was: 957 (47%) Pakistani heritage, 715 (35%) White British and 356 (18%) other. 971 (46%) live in the most deprived decile of material deprivation in England. 2,043 (95%) were mothers and 101 were partners. The results summarised below are based on the mothers' responses. Many families live in poor quality (N=574, 28%), and overcrowded (N=364, 19%) housing; this was more common in families of Pakistani heritage and other ethnicities. Financial (N=738 (37%), food (N=396, 20%), employment (N=728, 37%) and housing (N=204, 10%) insecurities were common, particularly in those who were furloughed, self-employed not working or unemployed. Clinically significant depression and anxiety symptoms were reported by 372 (19%) and 318 (16%) of the mothers and were more common in White British mothers and those with economic insecurity. Open text responses corroborated these findings and highlighted high levels of anxiety about becoming ill or dying from Covid-19. Conclusions: The experiences of the Covid-19 lockdown in this ethnically diverse and deprived population highlight a large number of families living in poor housing conditions, suffering from economic insecurity and poor mental health. There is a need for policy makers and commissioners to better support these families.

Advancing public health policy making through research on the political strategies of alcohol industry actors

Development and implementation of evidence-based policies is needed in order to ameliorate the rising toll of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Alcohol is a key cause of the mortality burden and alcohol policies are under-developed. This is due in part to the global influence of the alcohol industry. We propose that a better understanding of the methods and the effectiveness of alcohol industry influence on public health policies will support efforts to combat such influence, and advance global health. Many of the issues on the research agenda we propose will inform, and be informed by, research into the political influence of other commercial actors.

The Caregiver Health Effects of Caring for Young Children with Developmental Disabilities: A Meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Mothers of school age and older children with developmental disabilities experience poorer health than mothers of typically developing children. This review assesses the evidence for the effect on mothers' health of caring for young children with developmental disabilities, and the influence of different disability diagnoses and socioeconomic status.

METHODS

Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO and CINAHL were searched. Studies measuring at least one symptom, using a quantitative scale, in mothers of preschool children (0-5 years) with and without a diagnosed developmental disability were selected. Random effects meta-analysis was performed, and predictive intervals reported due to high expected heterogeneity.

RESULTS

The meta-analysis included 23 estimates of association from 14 retrospective studies for the outcomes of stress (n = 11), depressive symptoms (n = 9), general health (n = 2) and fatigue (n = 1). Caring for a child with a developmental disability was associated with greater ill health (standardised mean difference 0.87; 95% predictive interval - 0.47, 2.22). The largest association was for mixed developmental disabilities (1.36; - 0.64, 3.36) and smallest for Down syndrome (0.38; - 2.17, 2.92). There was insufficient socioeconomic information to perform subgroup analysis. The small number of studies and data heterogeneity limited the precision of the estimates of association and generalizability of the findings.

CONCLUSIONS FOR PRACTICE

Mothers of young children with developmental disabilities may have poorer health than those with typically developing children. Research is needed to identify whether the relationship is causal and, if so, interventions that could reduce the negative effect of caregiving.

An evaluation of the influence of the publication of the UK National Institute for health and Care Excellence's guidance on hypertension in pregnancy: a retrospective analysis of clinical practice

Background

The UK National Institute for health and Care Excellence (NICE) publish guidance aimed at standardising practice. Evidence regarding how well recommendations are implemented and what clinicians think about guidance is limited. We aimed to establish the extent to which the NICE Hypertension in pregnancy (HIP) guidance has influenced care and assess clinician’s attitudes to this guidance.

Methods

Five maternity units in the Midlands and North of England took part in the retrospective evaluation of 2490 birth records from randomly selected dates in 2008–2010 and 2013–2015. The proportion of women where care was adhered to before (2008–2010) and after (2013–2015) guidance publication was examined and differences estimated. Eleven midwives and obstetricians employed by Bradford Hospitals were interviewed.

Results

The proportion of high risk women prescribed Aspirin rose (before 14%, after 54%, p = < 0.01 (confidence interval of change (CI) 37, 43%) as well as for moderate risk women (before 3%, after 54%, p = < 0.01, CI 48, 54%) following guidance publication. Three quarters had blood pressure and a third proteinuria measured at every antenatal visit before and after guidance. Early birth < 37 weeks and ≥ 37 weeks gestation was more frequently offered after guidance publication than before (< 37 weeks: before 9%, after 18%, p = 0.01, CI 2, 16% and ≥ 37 weeks before 30%, after 52%, p = < 0.01, CI 9, 35%). Few were informed of future risk of developing a hypertensive disorder or had a documented postnatal review; however there was an increase in women advised to see their GP for this review (58% before and 90% after guidance p = < 0.01, CI 24, 39%).

All clinicians said the NICE HIP guidance was informative and provided robust evidence, however they said length of the document made use in practice challenging. They did not always access NICE guidance, preferring to use local guidance at least initially; both obstetricians and midwives said they accessed NICE guidance for in-depth information.

Conclusions

NICE HIP guidance is valued, used by clinicians and has influenced important aspects of care that may help improve outcomes for women who develop hypertension or pre-eclampsia, however some recommendations have had limited impact and therefore interventions are required to improve adherence.

Starting school: educational development as a function of age of entry and prematurity

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the impact on early development of prematurity and summer birth and the potential 'double disadvantage' created by starting school a year earlier than anticipated during pregnancy, due to being born preterm.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PATIENTS

We investigated the impact of gestational and school-entry age on the likelihood of failing to achieve a 'Good Level of Development' (GLD) on the Early Years Foundation Stage Profile in 5-year-old children born moderate-to-late preterm using data from the Born in Bradford longitudinal birth cohort. We used hierarchical logistic regression to control for chronological maturity, and perinatal and socioeconomic factors.

RESULTS

Gestational age and school-entry age were significant predictors of attaining a GLD in the 10 337 children who entered school in the correct academic year given their estimated date of delivery. The odds of not attaining a GLD increased by 1.09 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.11) for each successive week born early and by 1.17 for each month younger within the year group (95% CI 1.16 to 1.18). There was no interaction between these two effects. Children starting school a year earlier than anticipated during pregnancy were less likely to achieve a GLD compared with (1) other children born preterm (fully adjusted OR 5.51 (2.85-14.25)); (2) term summer births (3.02 (1.49-6.79)); and (3) preterm summer births who remained within their anticipated school-entry year (3.64 (1.27-11.48)).

CONCLUSIONS

These results confirm the developmental risks faced by children born moderate-to-late preterm, and-for the first time-illustrate the increased risk associated with 'double disadvantage'.

Measuring fidelity to behavioural support delivery for smoking cessation and its association with outcomes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Behavioural support increases smoking cessation in clinical settings, but effect sizes differ among providers, due possibly to variations in delivery. This study evaluates a measure ('fidelity index') intended to capture fidelity to delivery of content- and interaction-based items of a behavioural support (BS) for smoking cessation and the association of fidelity with quit rates.

METHODS

A fidelity index for scoring the adherence and quality domains of a specific BS intervention, '5As for quit', was developed by classifying the intervention components using the taxonomy of behaviour change techniques. The index was applied to code 154 BS sessions audiotaped among 18 chest clinics in Pakistan to assess their fidelity and explore reliability of coding. The association between intervention fidelity and successful quit achieved by the same providers in a previous study was explored using regression analysis.

RESULTS

The index represented two domains: adherence to delivery of content-based activities of 5As (37 items) and quality of interaction-based activities (eight items). The intercoder reliability was good for content-based (average Krippendorff's α = 0.80) and moderate for interaction-based (average Krippendorff's α = 0.66) items. Approximately 70% (intraclass correlation coefficient: adherence scores = 0.72, quality scores = 0.71) of variation in BS delivery was contributed by providers, which increased to 97% (g-coefficient: adherence scores = 0.973, quality scores = 0.974) after accounting for other sources of variation. Higher quit rates were positively associated with average quality scores [risk ratio = 2.15; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.43-3.24], but negatively associated with average adherence scores (risk ratio = 0.55; 95% CI = 0.40-0.77) within services.

CONCLUSIONS

The fidelity index is a reliable measure for quantifying intervention fidelity of delivering smoking cessation behavioural support. Recommended revisions of the fidelity index include incorporation of additional interaction-based items, such as the relational techniques used in motivational interviewing.

The Born in Bradford COVID-19 Research Study: Protocol for an adaptive mixed methods research study to gather actionable intelligence on the impact of COVID-19 on health inequalities amongst families living in Bradford

The UK COVID-19 lockdown has included restricting social movement and interaction to slow the spread of disease and reduce demand on NHS acute services. It is likely that the impacts of restrictions will hit the least advantaged disproportionately and will worsen existing structural inequalities amongst deprived and ethnic minority groups. The aim of this study is to deliver rapid intelligence to enable an effective COVID-19 response, including co-production of interventions, that address key issues in the City of Bradford, UK, and nationally. In the longer term we aim to understand the impacts of the response on health trajectories and inequalities in these. In this paper we describe our approach and protocol. We plan an adaptive longitudinal mixed methods approach embedded with Born in Bradford (BiB) birth cohorts which have rich existing data (including questionnaire, routine health and biobank). All work packages (WP) interact and are ongoing. WP1 uses co-production and engagement methods with communities, decision-makers and researchers to continuously set (changing) research priorities and will, longer-term, co-produce interventions to aid the City's recovery. In WP2 repeated quantitative surveys will be administered during lockdown (April-June 2020), with three repeat surveys until 12 months post-lockdown with an ethnically diverse pool of BiB participants (parents, children aged 9-13 years, pregnant women: total sample pool N=7,652, N=5,154, N=1,800). A range of health, social, economic and education outcomes will be assessed. In WP3 priority topics identified in WP1 and WP2 will be explored qualitatively. Initial priority topics include children's mental wellbeing, health beliefs and the peri/post-natal period. Feedback loops will ensure findings are fed directly to decision-makers and communities (via WP1) to enable co-production of acceptable interventions and identify future priority topic areas. Findings will be used to aid development of local and national policy to support recovery from the pandemic and minimise health inequalities.

Development of a Clinical Decision Rule for the Early Safe Discharge of Patients with Mild Traumatic Brain Injury and Findings on Computed Tomography Brain Scan: A Retrospective Cohort Study

International guidelines recommend routine hospital admission for all patients with mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) who have injuries on computed tomography (CT) brain scan. Only a small proportion of these patients require neurosurgical or critical care intervention. We aimed to develop an accurate clinical decision rule to identify low-risk patients safe for discharge from the emergency department (ED) and facilitate earlier referral of those requiring intervention. A retrospective cohort study of case notes of patients admitted with initial Glasgow Coma Scale 13–15 and injuries identified by CT was completed. Data on a primary outcome measure of clinically important deterioration (indicating need for hospital admission) and secondary outcome of neurosurgery, intensive care unit admission, or intubation (indicating need for neurosurgical admission) were collected. Multi-variable logistic regression was used to derive models and a risk score predicting deterioration using routinely reported clinical and radiological candidate variables identified in a systematic review. We compared the performance of this new risk score with the Brain Injury Guideline (BIG) criteria, derived in the United States. A total of 1699 patients were included from three English major trauma centers. A total of 27.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25.5–29.9) met the primary and 13.1% (95% CI, 11.6–14.8) met the secondary outcomes of deterioration. The derived clinical decision rule suggests that patients with simple skull fractures or intracranial bleeding <5 mm in diameter who are fully conscious could be safely discharged from the ED. The decision rule achieved a sensitivity of 99.5% (95% CI, 98.1–99.9) and specificity of 7.4% (95% CI, 6.0–9.1) to the primary outcome. The BIG criteria achieved the same sensitivity, but lower specificity (5%). Our empirical models showed good predictive performance and outperformed the BIG criteria. This would potentially allow ED discharge of 1 in 20 patients currently admitted for observation. However, prospective external validation and economic evaluation are required.

Blood pressure change across pregnancy in white British and Pakistani women: analysis of data from the Born in Bradford cohort

The incidence of gestational hypertension (GH) and pre-eclampsia (PE) is increasing. Use of blood pressure (BP) change patterns may improve early detection of BP abnormalities. We used Linear spline random-effects models to estimate BP patterns across pregnancy for white British and Pakistani women. Pakistani women compared to white British women had lower BP during the first two trimesters of pregnancy, irrespective of the development of GH or PE or presence of a risk factor. Pakistani compared to white British women with GH and PE showed steeper BP increases towards the end of pregnancy. Pakistani women were half as likely to develop GH, but as likely to develop PE than white British women. To conclude; BP trajectories differ by ethnicity. Because GH developed evenly from 20 weeks gestation, and PE occurred more commonly after 36 weeks in both ethnic groups, the lower BP up to the third trimester in Pakistani women resulted in a lower GH rate, whereas PE rates, influenced by the steep third trimester BP increase were similar. Criteria for diagnosing GH and PE may benefit from considering ethnic differences in BP change across pregnancy.

Private and social time preference for health outcomes: A general population survey in Iran

Despite the recent increase in economic evaluations of health care programs in low and middle income countries, there is still a surprising gap in evidence on the appropriate discount rate and the discounting of health outcomes such as quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Our study aimed to calculate the implied time preference rate for health outcomes in Iran and its key determinants. Data were gathered from one family member from each of the 650 households randomly selected in Tehran. The respondents’ private and social preferences for health outcomes were calculated using the time trade-off (TTO) technique based on the discounted utility model. We investigated the main assumptions of the discounted utility model through equality of mean comparison, and the association between private time preference and key socio-economic determinants using multilevel regression analysis. The mean and median implied rates were 5.8% and 4.9% for private time preference and 25.6% and 20% for social time preference respectively. Our study confirmed that magnitude, framing and time effects have a significant impact on implied discount rates, which means that the conventional discounted utility model’s main assumptions are violated in the Iranian general population. Other models of discounting which apply lower rates for far health outcomes might provide a more sensible solution to discounting health interventions with long-term impacts.

Impact of the SIGN head injury guidelines and NHS 4-hour emergency target on hospital admissions for head injury in Scotland: an interrupted times series

OBJECTIVES

Head injury is a common reason for emergency department (ED) attendance. Around 1% of patients have life-threatening injuries, while 80% of patients are discharged. National guidelines (Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN)) were introduced in Scotland with the aim of achieving early identification of those with acute intracranial lesions yet safely reducing hospital admissions.This study aims to assess the impact of these guidelines and any effect the national 4-hour ED performance target had on hospital admissions for head injury.

SETTING

All Scottish hospitals between April 1998 and March 2016.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients admitted to hospital for head injury or traumatic brain injury (TBI) diagnosed by CT imaging identified using administrative Scottish Information Services Division data. There are 275 hospitals in Scotland. In 2015/2016, there were 571 221 emergency hospital admissions in Scotland.

INTERVENTIONS

The SIGN head injury guidelines introduced in 2000 and 2009. The 4-hour ED target introduced in 2004.

OUTCOMES

The monthly rate of hospital admissions for head injury and traumatic brain injury.

STUDY DESIGN

An interrupted time series analysis.

RESULTS

The first guideline was associated with a reduction in monthly admissions of 0.14 (95% CI 0.09 to 4.83) per 100 000 population. The 4-hour target was associated with a monthly increase in admissions of 0.13 (95% CI 0.06 to 0.20) per 100 000 population. The second guideline reduced monthly admissions by 0.09 (95% CI-0.13 to -0.05) per 100 000 population. These effects varied between age groups.The guidelines were associated with increased admissions for patients with injuries identified by CT imaging-guideline 1: 0.06 (95% CI 0.004 to 0.12); guideline 2: 0.05 (95% CI 0.04 to 0.06) per 100 000 population.

CONCLUSION

Increased CT imaging of head injured patients recommended by SIGN guidelines reduced hospital admissions. The 4-hour ED target and the increased identification of TBI by CT imaging acted to undermine this effect.

Prevalence of, and risk factors for, presenting visual impairment: findings from a vision screening programme based on UK NSC guidance in a multi-ethnic population

PURPOSE

To determine presenting visual acuity levels and explore the factors associated with failing vision screening in a multi-ethnic population of UK children aged 4-5 years.

METHODS

Visual acuity (VA) using the logMAR Crowded Test was measured in 16,541 children in a population-based vision screening programme. Referral for cycloplegic examination was based on national recommendations (>0.20logMAR in one or both eyes). Presenting visual impairment (PVI) was defined as VA >0.3logMAR in the better eye. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association of ethnicity, maternal, and early-life factors with failing vision screening and PVI in participants of the Born in Bradford birth cohort.

RESULTS

In total, 2467/16,541 (15%) failed vision screening, 732 (4.4%) had PVI. Children of Pakistani (OR: 2.49; 95% CI: 1.74-3.60) and other ethnicities (OR: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.28-3.12) showed increased odds of PVI compared to white children. Children born to older mothers (OR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.19-2.24) and of low birth weight (OR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.00-2.34) also showed increased odds. Follow-up results were available for 1068 (43.3%) children, 993 (93%) were true positives; 932 (94%) of these had significant refractive error. Astigmatism (>1DC) (44%) was more common in children of Pakistani ethnicity and hypermetropia (>3.0DS) (27%) in white children (Fisher's exact, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

A high prevalence of PVI is reported. Failing vision screening and PVI were highly associated with ethnicity. The positive predictive value of the vision screening programme was good, with only 7% of children followed up confirmed as false positives.

The effect of adherence to spectacle wear on early developing literacy: a longitudinal study based in a large multiethnic city, Bradford, UK

OBJECTIVES

To determine the impact of adherence to spectacle wear on visual acuity (VA) and developing literacy following vision screening at age 4-5 years.

DESIGN

Longitudinal study nested within the Born in Bradford birth cohort.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Observation of 944 children: 432 had failed vision screening and were referred (treatment group) and 512 randomly selected (comparison group) who had passed (<0.20 logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (logMAR) in both eyes). Spectacle wear was observed in school for 2 years following screening and classified as adherent (wearing spectacles at each assessment) or non-adherent.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Annual measures of VA using a crowded logMAR test. Literacy was measured by Woodcock Reading Mastery Tests-Revised subtest: letter identification.

RESULTS

The VA of all children improved with increasing age, -0.009 log units per month (95% CI -0.011 to -0.007) (worse eye). The VA of the adherent group improved significantly more than the comparison group, by an additional -0.008 log units per month (95% CI -0.009 to -0.007) (worse eye) and -0.004 log units per month (95% CI -0.005 to -0.003) in the better eye.Literacy was associated with the VA, letter identification (ID) reduced by -0.9 (95% CI -1.15 to -0.64) for every one line (0.10 logMAR) fall in VA (better eye). This association remained after adjustment for socioeconomic and demographic factors (-0.33, 95% CI -0.54 to -0.12). The adherent group consistently demonstrated higher letter-ID scores compared with the non-adherent group, with the greatest effect size (0.11) in year 3.

CONCLUSIONS

Early literacy is associated with the level of VA; children who adhere to spectacle wear improve their VA and also have the potential to improve literacy. Our results suggest failure to adhere to spectacle wear has implications for the child's vision and education.

The Risk of Deterioration in GCS13-15 Patients with Traumatic Brain Injury Identified by Computed Tomography Imaging: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The optimal management of mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients with injuries identified by computed tomography (CT) brain scan is unclear. Some guidelines recommend hospital admission for an observation period of at least 24 h. Others argue that selected lower-risk patients can be discharged from the Emergency Department (ED). The objective of our review and meta-analysis was to estimate the risk of death, neurosurgical intervention, and clinical deterioration in mild TBI patients with injuries identified by CT brain scan, and assess which patient factors affect the risk of these outcomes. A systematic review and meta-analysis adhering to PRISMA standards of protocol and reporting were conducted. Study selection was performed by two independent reviewers. Meta-analysis using a random effects model was undertaken to estimate pooled risks for: clinical deterioration, neurosurgical intervention, and death. Meta-regression was used to explore between-study variation in outcome estimates using study population characteristics. Forty-nine primary studies and five reviews were identified that met the inclusion criteria. The estimated pooled risk for the outcomes of interest were: clinical deterioration 11.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 11.7%-15.8%), neurosurgical intervention 3.5% (95% CI: 2.2%-4.9%), and death 1.4% (95% CI: 0.8%-2.2%). Twenty-one studies presented within-study estimates of the effect of patient factors. Meta-regression of study characteristics and pooling of within-study estimates of risk factor effect found the following factors significantly affected the risk for adverse outcomes: age, initial Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), type of injury, and anti-coagulation. The generalizability of many studies was limited due to population selection. Mild TBI patients with injuries identified by CT brain scan have a small but clinically important risk for serious adverse outcomes. This review has identified several prognostic factors; research is needed to derive and validate a usable clinical decision rule so that low-risk patients can be safely discharged from the ED.

The identification and treatment of women with hyperglycaemia in pregnancy: an analysis of individual participant data, systematic reviews, meta-analyses and an economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is associated with a higher risk of important adverse outcomes. Practice varies and the best strategy for identifying and treating GDM is unclear.

AIM

To estimate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of strategies for identifying and treating women with GDM.

METHODS

We analysed individual participant data (IPD) from birth cohorts and conducted systematic reviews to estimate the association of maternal glucose levels with adverse perinatal outcomes; GDM prevalence; maternal characteristics/risk factors for GDM; and the effectiveness and costs of treatments. The cost-effectiveness of various strategies was estimated using a decision tree model, along with a value of information analysis to assess where future research might be worthwhile. Detailed systematic searches of MEDLINE^® and MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations^®, EMBASE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature Plus, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Health Technology Assessment database, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Maternity and Infant Care database and the Cochrane Methodology Register were undertaken from inception up to October 2014.

RESULTS

We identified 58 studies examining maternal glucose levels and outcome associations. Analyses using IPD alone and the systematic review demonstrated continuous linear associations of fasting and post-load glucose levels with adverse perinatal outcomes, with no clear threshold below which there is no increased risk. Using IPD, we estimated glucose thresholds to identify infants at high risk of being born large for gestational age or with high adiposity; for South Asian (SA) women these thresholds were fasting and post-load glucose levels of 5.2 mmol/l and 7.2 mmol/l, respectively and for white British (WB) women they were 5.4 and 7.5 mmol/l, respectively. Prevalence using IPD and published data varied from 1.2% to 24.2% (depending on criteria and population) and was consistently two to three times higher in SA women than in WB women. Lowering thresholds to identify GDM, particularly in women of SA origin, identifies more women at risk, but increases costs. Maternal characteristics did not accurately identify women with GDM; there was limited evidence that in some populations risk factors may be useful for identifying low-risk women. Dietary modification additional to routine care reduced the risk of most adverse perinatal outcomes. Metformin (Glucophage,^® Teva UK Ltd, Eastbourne, UK) and insulin were more effective than glibenclamide (Aurobindo Pharma - Milpharm Ltd, South Ruislip, Middlesex, UK). For all strategies to identify and treat GDM, the costs exceeded the health benefits. A policy of no screening/testing or treatment offered the maximum expected net monetary benefit (NMB) of £1184 at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). The NMB for the three best-performing strategies in each category (screen only, then treat; screen, test, then treat; and test all, then treat) ranged between -£1197 and -£1210. Further research to reduce uncertainty around potential longer-term benefits for the mothers and offspring, find ways of improving the accuracy of identifying women with GDM, and reduce costs of identification and treatment would be worthwhile.

LIMITATIONS

We did not have access to IPD from populations in the UK outside of England. Few observational studies reported longer-term associations, and treatment trials have generally reported only perinatal outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Using the national standard cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per QALY it is not cost-effective to routinely identify pregnant women for treatment of hyperglycaemia. Further research to provide evidence on longer-term outcomes, and more cost-effective ways to detect and treat GDM, would be valuable.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013004608.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Qualitative study investigating the perceptions of parents of children who failed vision screening at the age of 4-5 years

OBJECTIVE

To explore in depth parents' experiences and understanding of their children's eye care in order to better comprehend why there is relatively low uptake of services and variable adherence to treatment.

DESIGN

Semistructured interviews, informed by the Health Belief framework, were conducted with parents of children who had failed vision screening at age 4-5 years. Four were parents of children who never attended follow-up, 11 had children who attended but did not adhere to spectacle wear and 5 parents of children who had attended and adhered. Interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim; thematic analysis based on the constant comparative method was undertaken.

RESULTS

Parents' beliefs led to uncertainty about the benefit of treatment, with parents testing their children to confirm the presence of a vision deficit and seeking advice from other family and community members. The stigma of spectacle wear explained the resistance of some to their child's treatment with the maintenance of 'normality' often more important than clinical advice. The combination of parents' own health beliefs, stigma and the practicalities of attending appointments together influenced parental decisions. Attendance following vision screening and the decision to adhere to spectacle wear were primarily based on the perceived severity of the visual reduction with the perceived benefit of spectacle wear outweighing any negative consequences.

CONCLUSIONS

Healthcare professionals require a greater understanding of parents' decision-making processes in order to provide personalised information. Knowledge of the cues to attendance and adherence provides policy makers a framework with which to review the barriers, develop strategies and redesign children's eye care pathways.

A protocol for the development of a prediction model in mild traumatic brain injury with CT scan abnormality: which patients are safe for discharge?

BACKGROUND

Head injury is an extremely common clinical presentation to hospital emergency departments (EDs). Ninety-five percent of patients present with an initial Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of 13-15, indicating a normal or near-normal conscious level. In this group, around 7% of patients have brain injuries identified by CT imaging but only 1% of patients have life-threatening brain injuries. It is unclear which brain injuries are clinically significant, so all patients with brain injuries identified by CT imaging are admitted for monitoring. If risk could be accurately determined in this group, admissions for low-risk patients could be avoided and resources could be focused on those with greater need.This study aims to (a) estimate the proportion of GCS13-15 patients with traumatic brain injury identified by CT imaging admitted to hospital who clinically deteriorate and (b) develop a prognostic model highly sensitive to clinical deterioration which could help inform discharge decision making in the ED.

METHODS

A retrospective case note review of 2000 patients with an initial GCS13-15 and traumatic brain injury identified by CT imaging (2007-2017) will be completed in two English major trauma centres. The prevalence of clinically significant deterioration including death, neurosurgery, intubation, seizures or drop in GCS by more than 1 point will be estimated. Candidate prognostic factors have been identified in a previous systematic review. Multivariable logistic regression will be used to derive a prognostic model, and its sensitivity and specificity to the outcome of deterioration will be explored.

DISCUSSION

This study will potentially derive a statistical model that predicts clinically relevant deterioration and could be used to develop a clinical risk tool guiding the need for hospital admission in this group.

Thompson hemiarthroplasty versus modular unipolar implants for patients requiring hemiarthroplasty of the hip: A systematic review of the evidence

Objectives

The objective of this study was to assess all evidence comparing the Thompson monoblock hemiarthroplasty with modular unipolar implants for patients requiring hemiarthroplasty of the hip with respect to mortality and complications.

Methods

A literature search was performed to identify all relevant literature. The population consisted of patients undergoing hemiarthroplasty of the hip for fracture. The intervention was hemiarthroplasty of the hip with a comparison between Thompson and modular unipolar prostheses.

Pubmed, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, PROSPERO and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials.

The study designs included were randomised controlled trials (RCTs), well designed case control studies and retrospective or prospective cohort studies. Studies available in any language, published at any time until September 2015 were considered. Studies were included if they contained mortality or complications.

Results

The initial literature search identified 4757 items for examination. Four papers were included in the final review. The pooled odds ratio for mortality was 1.3 (95% confidence Interval 0.78 to 2.46) favouring modular designs. The pooled odds ratio for post-operative complications was 1.1 (95% CI 0.79 to 1.55) favouring modular designs. Outcomes were reported at 12 or six months. These papers all contained potential sources of bias and significant clinical heterogeneity.

Conclusion

The current evidence comparing monoblock versus modular implants in patients undergoing hemiarthroplasty is weak. Confidence intervals around the pooled odds ratios are broad and incorporate a value of one. Direct comparison of outcomes from these papers is fraught with difficulty and, as such, may well be misleading. A well designed randomised controlled trial would be helpful to inform evidence-based implant selection.

Cite this article: A. L. Sims, A. J. Farrier, M. R. Reed, T. A. Sheldon. Thompson hemiarthroplasty versus modular unipolar implants for patients requiring hemiarthroplasty of the hip: A systematic review of the evidence. Bone Joint Res 2017;6:–513. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.68.BJR-2016-0256.R1.

Treatments for gestational diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effectiveness of different treatments for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

DESIGN

Systematic review, meta-analysis and network meta-analysis.

METHODS

Data sources were searched up to July 2016 and included MEDLINE and Embase. Randomised trials comparing treatments for GDM (packages of care (dietary and lifestyle interventions with pharmacological treatments as required), insulin, metformin, glibenclamide (glyburide)) were selected by two authors and double checked for accuracy. Outcomes included large for gestational age, shoulder dystocia, neonatal hypoglycaemia, caesarean section and pre-eclampsia. We pooled data using random-effects meta-analyses and used Bayesian network meta-analysis to compare pharmacological treatments (ie, including treatments not directly compared within a trial).

RESULTS

Forty-two trials were included, the reporting of which was generally poor with unclear or high risk of bias. Packages of care varied in their composition and reduced the risk of most adverse perinatal outcomes compared with routine care (eg, large for gestational age: relative risk0.58 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.68; I2=0%; trials 8; participants 3462). Network meta-analyses suggest that metformin had the highest probability of being the most effective treatment in reducing the risk of most outcomes compared with insulin or glibenclamide.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence shows that packages of care are effective in reducing the risk of most adverse perinatal outcomes. However, trials often include few women, are poorly reported with unclear or high risk of bias and report few outcomes. The contribution of each treatment within the packages of care remains unclear. Large well-designed and well-conducted trials are urgently needed.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

PROSPERO CRD42013004608.

Risk factor screening to identify women requiring oral glucose tolerance testing to diagnose gestational diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis and analysis of two pregnancy cohorts

BACKGROUND

Easily identifiable risk factors including: obesity and ethnicity at high risk of diabetes are commonly used to indicate which women should be offered the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) to diagnose gestational diabetes (GDM). Evidence regarding these risk factors is limited however. We conducted a systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis and individual participant data (IPD) analysis to evaluate the performance of risk factors in identifying women with GDM.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Medline in Process, Embase, Maternity and Infant Care and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) up to August 2016 and conducted additional reference checking. We included observational, cohort, case-control and cross-sectional studies reporting the performance characteristics of risk factors used to identify women at high risk of GDM. We had access to IPD from the Born in Bradford and Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy cohorts, all pregnant women in the two cohorts with data on risk factors and OGTT results were included.

RESULTS

Twenty nine published studies with 211,698 women for the SR and a further 14,103 women from two birth cohorts (Born in Bradford and the Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy study) for the IPD analysis were included. Six studies assessed the screening performance of guidelines; six examined combinations of risk factors; eight evaluated the number of risk factors and nine examined prediction models or scores. Meta-analysis using data from published studies suggests that irrespective of the method used, risk factors do not identify women with GDM well. Using IPD and combining risk factors to produce the highest sensitivities, results in low specificities (and so higher false positives). Strategies that use the risk factors of age (>25 or >30) and BMI (>25 or 30) perform as well as other strategies with additional risk factors included.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factor screening methods are poor predictors of which pregnant women will be diagnosed with GDM. A simple approach of offering an OGTT to women 25 years or older and/or with a BMI of 25kg/m2 or more is as good as more complex risk prediction models. Research to identify more accurate (bio)markers is needed. Systematic Review Registration: PROSPERO CRD42013004608.

Hyperglycaemia and risk of adverse perinatal outcomes: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

 To assess the association between maternal glucose concentrations and adverse perinatal outcomes in women without gestational or existing diabetes and to determine whether clear thresholds for identifying women at risk of perinatal outcomes can be identified.

DESIGN

 Systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies and control arms of randomised trials.

DATA SOURCES

 Databases including Medline and Embase were searched up to October 2014 and combined with individual participant data from two additional birth cohorts.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES

 Studies including pregnant women with oral glucose tolerance (OGTT) or challenge (OGCT) test results, with data on at least one adverse perinatal outcome.

APPRAISAL AND DATA EXTRACTION

 Glucose test results were extracted for OGCT (50 g) and OGTT (75 g and 100 g) at fasting and one and two hour post-load timings. Data were extracted on induction of labour; caesarean and instrumental delivery; pregnancy induced hypertension; pre-eclampsia; macrosomia; large for gestational age; preterm birth; birth injury; and neonatal hypoglycaemia. Risk of bias was assessed with a modified version of the critical appraisal skills programme and quality in prognostic studies tools.

RESULTS

 25 reports from 23 published studies and two individual participant data cohorts were included, with up to 207 172 women (numbers varied by the test and outcome analysed in the meta-analyses). Overall most studies were judged as having a low risk of bias. There were positive linear associations with caesarean section, induction of labour, large for gestational age, macrosomia, and shoulder dystocia for all glucose exposures across the distribution of glucose concentrations. There was no clear evidence of a threshold effect. In general, associations were stronger for fasting concentration than for post-load concentration. For example, the odds ratios for large for gestational age per 1 mmol/L increase of fasting and two hour post-load glucose concentrations (after a 75 g OGTT) were 2.15 (95% confidence interval 1.60 to 2.91) and 1.20 (1.13 to 1.28), respectively. Heterogeneity was low between studies in all analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

 This review and meta-analysis identified a large number of studies in various countries. There was a graded linear association between fasting and post-load glucose concentration across the whole glucose distribution and most adverse perinatal outcomes in women without pre-existing or gestational diabetes. The lack of a clear threshold at which risk increases means that decisions regarding thresholds for diagnosing gestational diabetes are somewhat arbitrary. Research should now investigate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of applying different glucose thresholds for diagnosis of gestational diabetes on perinatal and longer term outcomes.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

 PROSPERO CRD42013004608.

Evaluation of ethnic disparities in detection of depression and anxiety in primary care during the maternal period: combined analysis of routine and cohort data

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on detection disparities of common mental disorders in minority ethnic women.

AIMS

Describe the natural history of common mental disorders in primary care in the maternal period, characterise women with, and explore ethnic disparities in, detected and potentially missed common mental disorders.

METHOD

Secondary analyses of linked birth cohort and primary care data involving 8991 (39.4% White British) women in Bradford. Common mental disorders were characterised through indications in the electronic medical record. Potentially missed common mental disorders were defined as an elevated General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28) score during pregnancy with no corresponding common mental disorder markers in the medical record.

RESULTS

Estimated prevalence of pre-birth common mental disorders was 9.5%, rising to 14.0% 3 years postnatally. Up to half of cases were potentially missed. Compared with White British women, minority ethnic women were twice as likely to have potentially missed common mental disorders and half as likely to have a marker of screening for common mental disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

Common mental disorder detection disparities exist for minority ethnic women in the maternal period.

Impact of visual acuity on developing literacy at age 4-5 years: a cohort-nested cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the prevalence of poor vision in children aged 4-5 years and determine the impact of visual acuity on literacy.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study linking clinical, epidemiological and education data.

SETTING

Schools located in the city of Bradford, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Prevalence was determined for 11,186 children participating in the Bradford school vision screening programme. Data linkage was undertaken for 5836 Born in Bradford (BiB) birth cohort study children participating both in the Bradford vision screening programme and the BiB Starting Schools Programme. 2025 children had complete data and were included in the multivariable analyses.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Visual acuity was measured using a logMAR Crowded Test (higher scores=poorer visual acuity). Literacy measured by Woodcock Reading Mastery Tests-Revised (WRMT-R) subtest: letter identification (standardised).

RESULTS

The mean (SD) presenting visual acuity was 0.14 (0.09) logMAR (range 0.0-1.0). 9% of children had a presenting visual acuity worse than 0.2logMAR (failed vision screening), 4% worse than 0.3logMAR (poor visual acuity) and 2% worse than 0.4logMAR (visually impaired). Unadjusted analysis showed that the literacy score was associated with presenting visual acuity, reducing by 2.4 points for every 1 line (0.10logMAR) reduction in vision (95% CI -3.0 to -1.9). The association of presenting visual acuity with the literacy score remained significant after adjustment for demographic and socioeconomic factors reducing by 1.7 points (95% CI -2.2 to -1.1) for every 1 line reduction in vision.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevalence of decreased visual acuity was high compared with other population-based studies. Decreased visual acuity at school entry is associated with reduced literacy. This may have important implications for the children's future educational, health and social outcomes.

Association between hyperglycaemia and adverse perinatal outcomes in south Asian and white British women: analysis of data from the Born in Bradford cohort

BACKGROUND

Diagnosis of gestational diabetes predicts risk of infants who are large for gestational age (LGA) and with high adiposity, which in turn aims to predict a future risk of obesity in the offspring. South Asian women have higher risk of gestational diabetes, lower risk of LGA, and on average give birth to infants with greater adiposity than do white European women. Whether the same diagnostic criteria for gestational diabetes should apply to both groups of women is unclear. We aimed to assess the association between maternal glucose and adverse perinatal outcomes to ascertain whether thresholds used to diagnose gestational diabetes should differ between south Asian and white British women. We also aimed to assess whether ethnic origin affected prevalence of gestational diabetes irrespective of criteria used.

METHODS

We used data (including results of a 26-28 week gestation oral glucose tolerance test) of women from the Born in Bradford study, a prospective study that recruited women attending the antenatal clinic at the Bradford Royal Infirmary, UK, between 2007 and 2011 and who intended to give birth to their infant in that hospital. We studied the association between fasting and 2 h post-load glucose and three primary outcomes (LGA [defined as birthweight >90th percentile for gestational age], high infant adiposity [sum of skinfolds >90th percentile for gestational age], and caesarean section). We calculated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for a 1 SD increase in fasting and post-load glucose. We established fasting and post-load glucose thresholds that equated to an OR of 1·75 for LGA and high infant adiposity in each group of women to identify ethnic-specific criteria for diagnosis of gestational diabetes.

FINDINGS

Of 13,773 pregnancies, 3420 were excluded from analyses. Of 10,353 eligible pregnancies, 4088 women were white British, 5408 were south Asian, and 857 were of other ethnic origin. The adjusted ORs of LGA per 1 SD fasting glucose were 1·22 (95% CI 1·08-1·38) in white British women and 1·43 (1·23-1·67) in south Asian women (pinteraction with ethnicity = 0·39). Results for high infant adiposity were 1·35 (1·23-1·49) and 1·35 (1·18-1·54; pinteraction with ethnicity=0·98), and for caesarean section they were 1·06 (0·97-1·16) and 1·11 (1·02-1·20; pinteraction with ethnicity=0·47). Associations between post-load glucose and the three primary outcomes were weaker than for fasting glucose. A fasting glucose concentration of 5·4 mmol/L or a 2 h post-load level of 7·5 mmol/L identified white British women with 75% or higher relative risk of LGA or high infant adiposity; in south Asian women, the cutoffs were 5·2 mmol/L or 7·2 mml/L; in the whole cohort, the cutoffs were 5·3 mmol/L or 7·5 mml/L. The prevalence of gestational diabetes in our cohort ranged from 1·2% to 8·7% in white British women and 4% to 24% in south Asian women using six different criteria. Compared with the application of our whole-cohort criteria, use of our ethnic-specific criteria increased the prevalence of gestational diabetes in south Asian women from 17·4% (95% CI 16·4-18·4) to 24·2% (23·1-25·3).

INTERPRETATION

Our data support the use of lower fasting and post-load glucose thresholds to diagnose gestational diabetes in south Asian than white British women. They also suggest that diagnostic criteria for gestational diabetes recommended by UK NICE might underestimate the prevalence of gestational diabetes compared with our criteria or those recommended by the International Association of Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups and WHO, especially in south Asian women.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research.

The dysfunctional consequences of a performance measurement system: the case of the Iranian national hospital grading programme

Objectives

Performance measurement systems are increasingly used to reward and improve provider performance. However, such initiatives may also inadvertently induce a range of unintended and dysfunctional side-effects. This study explores the unintended and adverse consequences induced by the Iranian national hospital grading programme, which incorporates financial incentives for meeting nationally defined standards.

Methods

We interviewed key informants across four key groups with a legitimate interest in healthcare performance: four purposively selected hospitals; four health insurance organizations; the Iranian hospital accreditation body; and one grading agency. The transcribed interviews and field notes were analysed thematically, and subsequently, member checking was conducted.

Results

Seven dysfunctional consequences were identified: misrepresentation of data by hospitals; increased anxiety and stress among hospital employees; tunnel vision; financial pressures on poorly graded hospitals; incentives to purchase unnecessary equipment; erosion of public trust; and restricting access to hospital services by patients. These were caused by the way the grading system was implemented: poor standards of audit; the way in which the audit process was conducted; and the timing of audits. The pay for performance element of the grading system and the focus on structural aspects in the standards made improvement in grading particularly difficult for those hospitals that had been assessed as under-performing.

Conclusion

Although the Iranian hospital grading system has resulted in a significant increase in the adoption of national standards, it has nevertheless induced a range of perverse outcomes. To mitigate these requires further refinement and recalibration of the system.

Role of pay-for-performance in a hospital performance measurement system: a multiple case study in Iran

Pay for performance (P4P) is becoming increasingly popular in the health care sector as a tool for encouraging performance (especially quality) improvement. Evidence about the effect of policies in hospitals is rare and generally confined to developed countries. The Iranian hospital grading system, which links the charges hospitals can make for patient stay to the results of their annual performance grading, is one of the earliest examples of P4P in the world. We report here the first evaluation of the impact of the Iranian P4P system. We conducted a multiple case study using semi-structured interviews and observation in four hospitals with different ownership and grading results, to explore responses to the grading system and the P4P policy. The data were analysed using framework analysis assisted by Atlas-ti software. The findings showed hospital behaviour was influenced by and changed in response to P4P policy, despite serious concerns about the validity of the grading standards. The main driver for such changes was hospital revenue, which acted as a direct financial incentive for private hospital managers and as a factor for public hospital managers' sense of success and reputation. Frontline staff were motivated indirectly by higher revenue flowing into investment in better facilities and working environment. Other potential mechanisms by which the grading system could have influenced behaviour [such as patient and General Practitioner (GP) referral choice] did not appear to influence hospital behaviour.

Assessment of the implementation of a national patient safety alert to reduce wrong site surgery

BACKGROUND

In 2005, guidance on how to prevent wrong site surgery in the form of a national safety alert was issued to all NHS hospital trusts in England and Wales by the National Patient Safety Agency.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the response to the alert among clinicians in England and Wales 12-15 months after it had been issued.

METHODS

A before-after study, using telephone/face-to-face interviews with consultant surgeons and senior nurses in ophthalmology, orthopaedics and urology in 11 NHS hospitals in England & Wales in the year prior to the alert and 12-15 months after. The interviews were coded and analysed thematically.

RESULTS

The study revealed marked heterogeneity in organisational processes in response to a national alert. There was a significant change in surgeons' self-reported practice, with only 48% of surgeons routinely marking patients prior to the alert and 85% after (p<0.001). However, inter-specialty differences remained and change in practice was not always matched by change in attitude. Compliance with the detailed recommendations about how marking should be carried out was inconsistent. There were unintended consequences in terms of greater bureaucracy and concerns about diffusion of responsibility and hastily performed marking to enable release of patients from wards.

CONCLUSION

The alert was effective in promoting presurgical marking and encouraging awareness of safety issues in relation to correct site surgery. However, care should be taken to monitor unintended consequences and whether change is sustained. Greater flexibility for local adaptation coupled with better design and early testing of safety alerts prior to national dissemination may facilitate more sustainable changes in practice.

Incidence, preventability and consequences of adverse events in older people: results of a retrospective case-note review

OBJECTIVES

to estimate the extent, preventability and consequences of adverse clinical events in elderly and non-elderly patients.

DESIGN

a two-stage structured, retrospective, patient case-note review.

SETTING

a large NHS hospital in England.

POPULATION

a random sample of 1,006 non-psychiatric patients.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

proportion of patients with adverse events, the proportion of preventable adverse events and the types and consequences of adverse events in patients >or=75 and under 75 years old.

RESULTS

forty five [13.5%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 10-17] of 332 patients >or=75 years and 42 (6.2%; 95% CI 4-8) of 674 patients <75 years had at least one adverse event. There was a significantly raised risk of experiencing an adverse event with increasing age [odds ratio (OR) = 1.03 adverse events per year of life, P < 0.001]. There was no statistically significant difference in preventability of adverse events and also in experiencing disability or death as a result of an adverse event by age after adjustment for potential confounders.

CONCLUSION

adverse events are significantly more common in non-psychiatric elderly inpatients than younger patients. There is little evidence that adverse events in older patients are more preventable and lead to disability or death more frequently.

Extent, nature and consequences of adverse events: results of a retrospective casenote review in a large NHS hospital

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the extent, nature and consequences of adverse events in a large National Health Service (NHS) hospital, and to evaluate the reliability of a two-stage casenote review method in identifying adverse events.

DESIGN

A two-stage structured retrospective patient casenote review.

SETTING

A large NHS hospital in England.

POPULATION

A random sample of 1006 hospital admissions between January and May 2004: surgery (n = 311), general medicine (n = 251), elderly (n = 184), orthopaedics (n = 131), urology (n = 61) and three other specialties (n = 68).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Proportion of admissions with adverse events, the proportion of preventable adverse events, and the types and consequences of adverse events.

RESULTS

8.7% (n = 87) of the 1006 admissions had at least one adverse event (95% CI 7.0% to 10.4%), of which 31% (n = 27) were preventable. 15% of adverse events led to impairment or disability which lasted more than 6 months and another 10% contributed to patient death. Adverse events led to a mean increased length of stay of 8 days (95% CI 6.5 to 9). The sensitivity of the screening criteria in identifying adverse events was 92% (95% CI 87% to 96%) and the specificity was 62% (95% CI 53% to 71%). Inter-rater reliability for determination of adverse events was good (kappa = 0.64), but for the assessment of preventability it was only moderate (kappa = 0.44).

CONCLUSION

This study confirms that adverse events are common, serious and potentially preventable source of harm to patients in NHS hospitals. The accuracy and reliability of a structured two-stage casenote review in identifying adverse events in the UK was confirmed.

Accuracy of child morbidity data in demographic and health surveys

BACKGROUND

The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) have been used throughout the developing world for the last 20 years to provide data on the distribution of disease in order to inform planning. Data on child illness and death are reported by mothers and are susceptible to error.

METHODS

We conducted an in-depth study of the Iranian DHS carried out in 2000-2001 and reviewed 110 DHS carried out around the world to check for bias by assessing the social gradient in reported child morbidity and mortality.

RESULTS

We found that the reported under-5 child morbidity and mortality rates for the 28 Iranian provinces were inversely correlated (r = -0.592, P < 0.001) and that the adjusted social gradient of child morbidity implied increased illness in those who had literate vs illiterate mothers (OR = 1.26, 95% CI 1.20-1.32) compared with a decrease in mortality with increased literacy (OR = 0.52, 95% CI 0.46-0.59). Many of the other DHSs also show increased rates of reported child diarrhoea in households with higher levels of maternal education, access to piped water and urban (vs rural) dwellings, the reverse of what is found with mortality rates.

CONCLUSIONS

This suggests that there may be significant recall and reporting bias in under-5 childhood morbidity in DHSs. Caution should be used in the interpretation and use of data from DHSs and the survey methods should be reviewed.

Evaluation of the implementation of the alert issued by the UK National Patient Safety Agency on the storage and handling of potassium chloride concentrate solution

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness of the response of NHS hospital trusts to an alert issued by the National Patient Safety Agency designed to limit the availability of concentrated potassium chloride in hospitals in England and Wales, and to determine the nature of any unintended consequences.

DESIGN

Multi-method study involving interviews and a physical inspection of clinical areas.

SETTING

207 clinical areas in 20 randomly selected acute NHS trusts in England and Wales between 31 October 2002 and 31 January 2003.

PARTICIPANTS

Senior managers and ward based medical and nursing staff.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Degree of staff awareness of and compliance with the requirements of the national alert, withdrawal of concentrated potassium chloride solutions from non-critical areas, provision of pre-diluted alternatives, storage and recording in accordance with controlled drug legislation.

RESULTS

All trusts required that potassium chloride concentrate be stored in a separate locked cup-board from common injectable diluents (100% compliance). Unauthorized stocks of potassium chloride were found in five clinical areas not authorized by the trust (98% compliance). All trusts required documentation control of potassium chloride concentrate in clinical areas, but errors were recorded in 20 of the 207 clinical areas visited (90% compliance). Of those interviewed, 78% of nurses and 30% of junior doctors were aware of the alert.

CONCLUSIONS

The NPSA alert was effective and resulted in rapid development and implementation of local policies to reduce the availability of concentrated potassium chloride solutions. The success is likely to be partly due to the nature of the proposed changes and it cannot be assumed that future alerts will be equally effective. Continued vigilance will be necessary to help sustain the changes.

Experience of wrong site surgery and surgical marking practices among clinicians in the UK

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the incidence of "wrong site surgery", but the consequences of this type of medical error can be severe. Guidance from both the USA and more recently the UK has highlighted the importance of preventing error by marking patients before surgery.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the experiences of wrong site surgery and current marking practices among clinicians in the UK before the release of a national Correct Site Surgery Alert.

METHODS

38 telephone or face-to-face interviews were conducted with consultant surgeons in ophthalmology, orthopaedics and urology in 14 National Health Service hospitals in the UK. The interviews were coded and analysed thematically using the software package QSR Nud*ist 6.

RESULTS

Most surgeons had experience of wrong site surgery, but there was no clear pattern of underlying causes. Marking practices varied considerably. Surgeons were divided on the value of marking and varied in their practices. Orthopaedic surgeons reported that they marked before surgery; however, some urologists and ophthalmologists reported that they did not. There seemed to be no formal hospital policies in place specifically relating to wrong site surgery, and there were problems associated with implementing a system of marking in some cases. The methods used to mark patients also varied. Some surgeons believed that marking was a limited method of preventing wrong site surgery and may even increase the risk of wrong site surgery.

CONCLUSION

Marking practices are variable and marking is not always used. Introducing standard guidance on marking may reduce the overall risk of wrong site surgery, especially as clinicians work at different hospital sites. However, the more specific needs of people and specialties must also be considered.

Sensitivity of routine system for reporting patient safety incidents in an NHS hospital: retrospective patient case note review

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the performance of a routine incident reporting system in identifying patient safety incidents.

DESIGN

Two stage retrospective review of patients' case notes and analysis of data submitted to the routine incident reporting system on the same patients.

SETTING

A large NHS hospital in England.

POPULATION

1006 hospital admissions between January and May 2004: surgery (n=311), general medicine (n=251), elderly care (n=184), orthopaedics (n=131), urology (n=61), and three other specialties (n=68).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Proportion of admissions with at least one patient safety incident; proportion and type of patient safety incidents missed by routine incident reporting and case note review methods.

RESULTS

324 patient safety incidents were identified in 230/1006 admissions (22.9%; 95% confidence interval 20.3% to 25.5%). 270 (83%) patient safety incidents were identified by case note review only, 21 (7%) by the routine reporting system only, and 33 (10%) by both methods. 110 admissions (10.9%; 9.0% to 12.8%) had at least one patient safety incident resulting in patient harm, all of which were detected by the case note review and six (5%) by the reporting system.

CONCLUSION

The routine incident reporting system may be poor at identifying patient safety incidents, particularly those resulting in harm. Structured case note review may have a useful role in surveillance of routine incident reporting and associated quality improvement programmes.