Disorder, not just state of risk: meta-analysis of functioning and quality of life in people at high risk of psychosis

Pathways to care in at-risk mental states: A systematic review

AIM

Pathways to care are well studied in the First Episode Psychosis field, but less attention has been given to At-Risk Mental States or prodromal psychosis. This is important because accessing appropriate help at the earliest opportunity is likely to improve outcomes, particularly for those who make transition to psychosis. The present systematic review aimed to synthesize the available literature on pathways to care in ARMS or prodromal psychosis, and investigate the barriers and facilitators to receiving care for ARMS.

METHODS

The CINAHL Complete, EMBASE, Medline Complete, PsycINFO and PubMED databases were searched. Studies were included if they were published in English between 1985 and 2019, where reported data came exclusively from an At-Risk Mental State population, and the study described or related to pathways to care.

RESULTS

Ten studies met the inclusion criteria, of which 8 were quantitative. Screening tools and pathways to care instruments varied. Mental health professionals, and general practitioners played a key role in help seeking. Family involvement was also found to be an important factor.

CONCLUSIONS

Pathways to care research in At-Risk Mental States are more scarce than in the field of First Episode Psychosis. More research is warranted, especially concerning the role of patient-level characteristics on pathways to care. A validated measure of pathways to care may also be of benefit.

A randomized Phase II trial evaluating efficacy, safety, and tolerability of oral BI 409306 in attenuated psychosis syndrome: Design and rationale

AIM

Attenuated psychosis syndrome (APS), a condition for further study in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-5, comprises psychotic symptoms that are qualitatively similar to those observed in schizophrenia but are less severe. Patients with APS are at high risk of converting to first-episode psychosis (FEP). As evidence for effective pharmacological interventions in APS is limited, novel treatments may provide symptomatic relief and delay/prevent psychotic conversion. This trial aims to investigate the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of BI 409306, a potent and selective phosphodiesterase-9 inhibitor, versus placebo in APS. Novel biomarkers of psychosis are being investigated.

METHODS

In this Phase II, multinational, double-blind, parallel-group trial, randomized (1:1) patients will receive BI 409306 50 mg or placebo twice daily for 52 weeks. Patients (n = 300) will be enrolled to determine time to remission of APS, time to FEP, change in everyday functional capacity (Schizophrenia Cognition Rating Scale), and change from baseline in Brief Assessment of Cognition composite score and Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale scores. Potential biomarkers of psychosis under investigation include functional measures of brain activity and automated speech analyses. Safety is being assessed throughout.

CONCLUSIONS

This trial will determine whether BI 409306 is superior to placebo in achieving sustainable remission of APS and improvements in cognition and functional capacity. These advances may provide evidence-based treatment options for symptomatic relief in APS. Furthermore, the study will assess the effect of BI 409306 on psychotic conversion and explore the identification of patients at risk for conversion using novel biomarkers.

Interventions for people at ultra-high risk for psychosis: A systematic review of economic evaluations

AIM

Psychotic disorders have long-term negative consequences for functioning and quality of life. Ultra-high risk (UHR) programs aim to identify and treat people during the prodromal period before their first psychotic episode. Though studies on the clinical effectiveness of treating prodromal symptoms in people at UHR for psychosis exist, no review has exclusively and comprehensively evaluated the economic impact of UHR programs. Our objective was to systematically review the literature on economic evaluations of UHR programs.

METHODS

We searched the Cochrane, EMBASE, MEDLINE, and PsycInfo electronic databases, in addition to grey literature, from inception to March 2020 to identify economic evaluations of UHR programs. We included all cost and cost-effectiveness studies of interventions for people at UHR. The data were synthesized qualitatively, and a risk of bias assessment was performed.

RESULTS

Of the 1916 articles retrieved, six studies met our inclusion criteria. These included three cost analysis studies and three cost-effectiveness studies. Five studies were conducted from the health system perspective and the time horizon varied between six months and ten years. Only two reported quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) as their outcome. Overall, all cost-effectiveness studies and one cost analysis suggested that UHR programs were cost-effective and cost saving, respectively. The risk of bias assessment suggested moderate levels of bias across all studies.

CONCLUSION

Economic evaluations of UHR programs varied in terms of outcomes and length of follow-up; however, most studies found them to be cost-effective. Future studies would benefit from long-term evaluations of UHR programs and consistent valuation of outcomes.

Genetic counselling for the prevention of mental health consequences of cannabis use: A randomized controlled trial-within-cohort

BACKGROUND

Cannabis use is a risk factor for severe mental illness. However, cannabis does not affect everyone equally. Genetic information may help identify individuals who are more vulnerable to the harmful effects of cannabis on mental health. A common genetic variant within the AKT1 gene selectively increases risk of psychosis, only among those who use cannabis. Therapeutically oriented genetic counselling may enable us to reduce cannabis exposure among genetically sensitive individuals.

METHODS

Using a trial-within-cohort design, we aim to test if genetic counselling, including the option to receive AKT1 rs2494732 genotype, reduces cannabis use. To this end, we have designed a genetic counselling intervention: Interdisciplinary approach to Maximize Adolescent potential: Genetic counselling Intervention to reduce Negative Environmental effects (IMAGINE).

RESULTS

IMAGINE will be implemented in a cohort of children and youth enriched for familial risk for major mood and psychotic disorders. Approximately 110 eligible individuals aged 12-21 years will be randomized in a 1:1 ratio to be offered a single genetic counselling session with a board-certified genetic counsellor, or not. Allocated youth will also be invited to attend a follow-up session approximately 1 month following the intervention. The primary outcome will be cannabis use (measured by self-report or urine screen) at subsequent annual assessments as part of the larger cohort study. Secondary outcomes include intervention acceptability and psychopathology.

CONCLUSION

This study represents the first translational application of a gene-environment interaction to improve mental health and test an intervention with potential public health benefits. This study is registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03601026).

ITAlian partnership for psychosis prevention (ITAPP): Improving the mental health of young people

Background

The European impact of the clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) paradigm is constrained by the lack of critical mass (detection) to power prognostic and preventive interventions.

Methods

An ITAlian partnership for psychosis prevention (ITAPP) was created across CHR-P centers, which were surveyed to describe: (a) service, catchment area, and outreach; (b) service users; and (c) interventions and outcomes. Descriptive statistics and Kaplan–Meier failure function complemented the analyses.

Results

The ITAPP included five CHR-P clinical academic centers established from 2007 to 2018, serving about 13 million inhabitants, with a recruitment capacity of 277 CHR-P individuals (mean age: 18.7 years, SD: 4.8, range: 12–39 years; 53.1% females; 85.7% meeting attenuated psychotic symptoms; 85.8% without any substance abuse). All centers were multidisciplinary and included adolescents and young adults (transitional) primarily recruited through healthcare services. The comprehensive assessment of at-risk mental state was the most widely used instrument, while the duration of follow-up, type of outreach, and preventive interventions were heterogeneous. Across 205 CHR-P individuals with follow up (663.7 days ± 551.7), the cumulative risk of psychosis increased from 8.7% (95% CI 5.3–14.1) at 1 year to 15.9% (95% CI 10.6–23.3) at 2 years, 21.8% (95% CI 14.9–31.3) at 3 years, 34.8% (95% CI 24.5–47.9) at 4 years, and 51.9% (95% CI 36.3–69.6) at 5 years.

Conclusions

The ITAPP is one of the few CHR-P clinical research partnerships in Europe for fostering detection, prognosis, and preventive care, as well as for translating research innovations into practice.

Recent stressful life events and stress sensitivity in children and adolescents at clinical risk for psychosis

Although psychosocial stress is consistently described as a casual factor for psychosis, the role of recent stressful life events (SLEs) is inconclusive. Studies with subjects with psychosis risk syndrome (PRS), fail to show a large number of SLEs but suggest greater stress sensitivity in these populations. We evaluate the presence of recent SLEs and stress sensitivity, and their relationship with symptoms and functionality in a sample consisting exclusively of help-seeking children and adolescents. Seventy-two 10- to 17-year-old help-seeking subjects who met PRS criteria and forty-two healthy control (HC) subjects participated in a naturalistic multi-site study. Measures of stress included the Stressful Life Events Schedule (SLES) and the G4 item of the Scale for Prodromal Syndromes (SOPS) scale. Child and adolescent PRS subjects presented greater number of SLEs during the previous year, greater total accumulated stress, greater sensitivity to stress, and more impaired tolerance to normal stress than did HC subjects. Stress measures showed a relationship with positive and negative attenuated symptoms, clinical variables and functionality. Our results support the role of stress in the PRS status. It reinforces the suggested differences for clinical presentation of PRS in terms of age, highlighting the importance of gathering data on the under-18 population.

Probability of Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk: An Updated Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Estimating the current likelihood of transitioning from a clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) to psychosis holds paramount importance for preventive care and applied research.

OBJECTIVE

To quantitatively examine the consistency and magnitude of transition risk to psychosis in individuals at CHR-P.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and Web of Science databases until November 1, 2020. Manual search of references from previous articles.

STUDY SELECTION

Longitudinal studies reporting transition risks in individuals at CHR-P.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Meta-analysis compliant with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) and Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) reporting guidelines; independent data extraction, manually and through digitalization of Kaplan-Meier curves.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES

Primary effect size was cumulative risk of transition to psychosis at 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 4, and more than 4 years' follow-up, estimated using the numbers of individuals at CHR-P transitioning to psychosis at each time point. These analyses were complemented by meta-analytical Kaplan-Meier curves and speed of transition to psychosis (hazard rate). Random-effects meta-analysis, between-study heterogeneity analysis, study quality assessment, and meta-regressions were conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 130 studies and 9222 individuals at CHR-P were included. The mean (SD) age was 20.3 (4.4) years, and 5100 individuals (55.3%) were male. The cumulative transition risk was 0.09 (95% CI, 0.07-0.10; k = 37; n = 6485) at 0.5 years, 0.15 (95% CI, 0.13-0.16; k = 53; n = 7907) at 1 year, 0.20 (95% CI, 0.17-0.22; k = 30; n = 5488) at 1.5 years, 0.19 (95% CI, 0.17-0.22; k = 44; n = 7351) at 2 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.21-0.29; k = 19; n = 3114) at 2.5 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.22-0.29; k = 29; n = 4029) at 3 years, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.23-0.30; k = 16; n = 2926) at 4 years, and 0.28 (95% CI, 0.20-0.37; k = 14; n = 2301) at more than 4 years. The cumulative Kaplan-Meier transition risk was 0.08 (95% CI, 0.08-0.09; n = 4860) at 0.5 years, 0.14 (95% CI, 0.13-0.15; n = 3408) at 1 year, 0.17 (95% CI, 0.16-0.19; n = 2892) at 1.5 years, 0.20 (95% CI, 0.19-0.21; n = 2357) at 2 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.23-0.26; n = 1444) at 2.5 years, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.25-0.28; n = 1029) at 3 years, 0.28 (95% CI, 0.26-0.29; n = 808) at 3.5 years, 0.29 (95% CI, 0.27-0.30; n = 737) at 4 years, and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.32-0.38; n = 114) at 10 years. The hazard rate only plateaued at 4 years' follow-up. Meta-regressions showed that a lower proportion of female individuals (β = -0.02; 95% CI, -0.04 to -0.01) and a higher proportion of brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (β = 0.02; 95% CI, 0.01-0.03) were associated with an increase in transition risk. Heterogeneity across the studies was high (I2 range, 77.91% to 95.73%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this meta-analysis, 25% of individuals at CHR-P developed psychosis within 3 years. Transition risk continued increasing in the long term. Extended clinical monitoring and preventive care may be beneficial in this patient population.

Impact of Comorbid Affective Disorders on Longitudinal Clinical Outcomes in Individuals at Ultra-high Risk for Psychosis

INTRODUCTION

Diagnoses of anxiety and/or depression are common in subjects at Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis (UHR) and associated with extensive functional impairment. Less is known about the impact of affective comorbidities on the prospective course of attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS).

METHOD

Latent class mixed modelling identified APS trajectories in 331 UHR subjects assessed at baseline, 6, 12, and 24 months follow-up. The prognostic value of past, baseline, and one-year DSM-IV depressive or anxiety disorders on trajectories was investigated using logistic regression, controlling for confounders. Cox proportional hazard analyses investigated associations with transition risk.

RESULTS

46.8% of participants fulfilled the criteria for a past depressive disorder, 33.2% at baseline, and 15.1% at one-year follow-up. Any past, baseline, or one-year anxiety disorder was diagnosed in 42.9%, 37.2%, and 27.0%, respectively. Participants were classified into one of three latent APS trajectory groups: (1) persistently low, (2) increasing, and (3) decreasing. Past depression was associated with a higher risk of belonging to the increasing trajectory group, compared to the persistently low (OR = 3.149, [95%CI: 1.298-7.642]) or decreasing group (OR = 3.137, [1.165-8.450]). In contrast, past (OR = .443, [.179-1.094]) or current (OR = .414, [.156-1.094]) anxiety disorders showed a trend-level association with a lower risk of belonging to the increasing group compared to the persistently low group. Past depression was significantly associated with a higher risk of transitioning to psychosis (HR = 2.123, [1.178-3.828]).

CONCLUSION

A past depressive episode might be a particularly relevant risk factor for an unfavorable course of APS in UHR individuals. Early affective disturbances may be used to advance detection, prognostic, and clinical strategies.

Psychosis-spectrum experiences linked to specific psychotherapy readiness domains among psychiatrically hospitalized adolescents

AIM

Early psychosocial treatment for psychosis-spectrum symptoms has been linked to positive outcomes, whereas delayed treatment is associated with poorer prognosis. Thus, there is a critical need to bolster psychotherapy engagement efforts, particularly among high-risk groups and during high-risk periods, in order to maximize recovery. This study explores the relation between psychosis-spectrum symptoms and psychotherapy readiness among psychiatrically hospitalized adolescents, a foundational step for developing more effective psychotherapy engagement approaches for this population.

METHODS

Adolescents (n = 704; 12-18 years) who were admitted to a psychiatric inpatient unit completed the Readiness for Psychotherapy Index (RPI), a psychosis-spectrum questionnaire (PRIME Screen), and a brief diagnostic interview at intake. Correlational patterns and regression analyses were used to explore associations between variables.

RESULTS

The PRIME Screen was negatively associated with the RPI Openness subscale and positively associated with the Distress subscale, beyond the effects of demographics (ie, age, sex, race) and psychiatric diagnoses.

CONCLUSIONS

Results indicate that the RPI probes multiple facets of psychotherapy readiness that have unique associations with psychosis-spectrum experiences. Adolescents with higher PRIME scores endorsed greater mental health-related distress and lower levels of openness to psychotherapy. These psychotherapy readiness factors warrant further exploration, as they may be significant barriers or facilitators to engaging adolescents with psychosis-spectrum symptoms in much needed early treatment services.

Transition to psychosis in randomized clinical trials of individuals at clinical high risk of psychosis compared to observational cohorts: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Individuals at clinical high risk of psychosis (CHR-P) recruited in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and observational cohorts may display a different enrichment and hence risk of transition to psychosis. No meta-analysis has ever addressed this issue.

METHODS

"Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses" (PRISMA) and "Meta-analysis Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology" (MOOSE)-compliant meta-analysis. PubMed and Web of Science were searched until November 2020 (PROSPERO:CRD42021229223). We included nonoverlapping longitudinal studies (RCTs-control condition and observational cohorts) reporting the transition to psychosis in CHR-P individuals. The primary effect size measure was the cumulative risk of transition at 0.5, 1, and 2 years follow-up in RCTs compared to observational cohorts. Random effects meta-analyses, heterogeneity assessment, quality assessment, and meta-regressions were conducted.

RESULTS

Ninety-four independent studies (24 RCTs, 70 observational cohorts) and 9,243 individuals (mean age = 20.1 ± 3.0 years; 43.7% females) were included. The meta-analytical risk of transitioning to psychosis from a CHR-P stage was 0.091 (95% confidence intervals [CI] = 0.068-0.121) at 0.5 years, 0.140 (95% CI = 0.101-0.191) at 1 year and 0.165 (95% CI = 0.097-0.267) at 2 years follow-up in RCTs, and 0.081 (95% CI = 0.067-0.099) at 0.5 years, 0.138 (95% CI = 0.114-0.167) at 1 year, and 0.174 (95% CI = 0.156-0.193) at 2 years follow-up in observational cohorts. There were no between-group differences in transition risks (p > 0.05). The proportion of CHR-P individuals with substance use disorders (excluding alcohol and cannabis) was higher in observational cohorts (16.8, 95% CI = 13.3-21.0%) than in RCTs (3.4, 95% CI = 0.8-12.7%; p = 0.018).

CONCLUSIONS

There is no meta-analytic evidence supporting sampling biases in RCTs of CHR-P individuals. Further RCTs are needed to detect effective interventions to prevent psychosis in this at-risk group.

Preventive psychiatry: a blueprint for improving the mental health of young people

Preventive approaches have latterly gained traction for improving mental health in young people. In this paper, we first appraise the conceptual foundations of preventive psychiatry, encompassing the public health, Gordon's, US Institute of Medicine, World Health Organization, and good mental health frameworks, and neurodevelopmentally-sensitive clinical staging models. We then review the evidence supporting primary prevention of psychotic, bipolar and common mental disorders and promotion of good mental health as potential transformative strategies to reduce the incidence of these disorders in young people. Within indicated approaches, the clinical high-risk for psychosis paradigm has received the most empirical validation, while clinical high-risk states for bipolar and common mental disorders are increasingly becoming a focus of attention. Selective approaches have mostly targeted familial vulnerability and non-genetic risk exposures. Selective screening and psychological/psychoeducational interventions in vulnerable subgroups may improve anxiety/depressive symptoms, but their efficacy in reducing the incidence of psychotic/bipolar/common mental disorders is unproven. Selective physical exercise may reduce the incidence of anxiety disorders. Universal psychological/psychoeducational interventions may improve anxiety symptoms but not prevent depressive/anxiety disorders, while universal physical exercise may reduce the incidence of anxiety disorders. Universal public health approaches targeting school climate or social determinants (demographic, economic, neighbourhood, environmental, social/cultural) of mental disorders hold the greatest potential for reducing the risk profile of the population as a whole. The approach to promotion of good mental health is currently fragmented. We leverage the knowledge gained from the review to develop a blueprint for future research and practice of preventive psychiatry in young people: integrating universal and targeted frameworks; advancing multivariable, transdiagnostic, multi-endpoint epidemiological knowledge; synergically preventing common and infrequent mental disorders; preventing physical and mental health burden together; implementing stratified/personalized prognosis; establishing evidence-based preventive interventions; developing an ethical framework, improving prevention through education/training; consolidating the cost-effectiveness of preventive psychiatry; and decreasing inequalities. These goals can only be achieved through an urgent individual, societal, and global level response, which promotes a vigorous collaboration across scientific, health care, societal and governmental sectors for implementing preventive psychiatry, as much is at stake for young people with or at risk for emerging mental disorders.

Youth Experience Tracker Instrument: A self-report measure of developmental antecedents to severe mental illness

AIM

We sought to examine the structure, internal consistency, convergent and criterion validity of the Youth Experience Tracker Instrument (YETI), a new brief self-report measure designed to facilitate early identification of risk for severe forms of mental illness, including major depressive disorder, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia.

METHODS

We collected 716 YETIs from 315 individuals aged 8 to 27 with and without familial risk of severe mental illness. The YETI measures six developmental antecedents that precede and predict serious forms of mental illness: affective lability, anxiety, basic symptoms, depressive symptoms, psychotic-like experiences, and sleep. A battery of concurrent questionnaires and interviews measured the same constructs.

RESULTS

The best-fitting bifactor model supported the validity of both total score and antecedent-specific subscales. Internal consistency was high for the total score (ω = 0.94) and subscales (ω = 0.80-0.92; ρ = 0.72). The total score captured the majority of information from the 26 YETI items (hierarchical omega ω_h = 0.74). Correlations of YETI subscales with established measures of the same constructs (r = 0.45-0.80) suggested adequate convergent validity. We propose cut-offs with high negative predictive values to facilitate efficient risk screening.

CONCLUSION

The YETI, a brief self-report measure of antecedents, provides an alternative to using multiple longer instruments. Future research may examine the predictive validity of the YETI for the onset of major mood and psychotic disorders.

Longitudinal outcome of attenuated positive symptoms, negative symptoms, functioning and remission in people at clinical high risk for psychosis: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Little is known about clinical outcomes other than transition to psychosis in people at Clinical High-Risk for psychosis (CHR-P). Our aim was to comprehensively meta-analytically evaluate for the first time a wide range of clinical and functional outcomes beyond transition to psychosis in CHR-P individuals.

METHODS

PubMed and Web of Science were searched until November 2020 in this PRISMA compliant meta-analysis (PROSPERO:CRD42020206271). Individual longitudinal studies conducted in individuals at CHR-P providing data on at least one of our outcomes of interest were included. We carried out random-effects pairwise meta-analyses, meta-regressions, and assessed publication bias and study quality. Analyses were two-tailed with α=0.05.

FINDINGS

75 prospective studies were included (n=5,288, age=20.0 years, females=44.5%). Attenuated positive symptoms improved at 12 (Hedges' g=0.753, 95%CI=0.495-1.012) and 24 (Hedges' g=0.836, 95%CI=0.463-1.209), but not ≥36 months (Hedges' g=0.315. 95%CI=-0.176-0.806). Negative symptoms improved at 12 (Hedges' g=0.496, 95%CI=0.315-0.678), but not 24 (Hedges' g=0.499, 95%CI=-0.137-1.134) or ≥36 months (Hedges' g=0.033, 95%CI=-0.439-0.505). Depressive symptoms improved at 12 (Hedges' g=0.611, 95%CI=0.441-0.782) and 24 (Hedges' g=0.583, 95%CI=0.364-0.803), but not ≥36 months (Hedges' g=0.512 95%CI=-0.337-1.361). Functioning improved at 12 (Hedges' g=0.711, 95%CI=0.488-0.934), 24 (Hedges' g=0.930, 95%CI=0.553-1.306) and ≥36 months (Hedges' g=0.392, 95%CI=0.117-0.667). Remission from CHR-P status occurred in 33.4% (95%CI=22.6-44.1%) at 12 months, 41.4% (95%CI=32.3-50.5%) at 24 months and 42.4% (95%CI=23.4-61.3%) at ≥36 months. Heterogeneity across the included studies was significant and ranged from I2=53.6% to I2=96.9%. The quality of the included studies (mean±SD) was 4.6±1.1 (range=2-8).

INTERPRETATION

CHR-P individuals improve on symptomatic and functional outcomes over time, but these improvements are not maintained in the longer term, and less than half fully remit. Prolonged duration of care may be needed for this patient population to optimize outcomes.

FUNDING

None.

Stress reactivity as a putative mechanism linking childhood trauma with clinical outcomes in individuals at ultra-high-risk for psychosis: Findings from the EU-GEI High Risk Study

AIMS

Childhood trauma is associated with an elevated risk for psychosis, but the psychological mechanisms involved remain largely unclear. This study aimed to investigate emotional and psychotic stress reactivity in daily life as a putative mechanism linking childhood trauma and clinical outcomes in individuals at ultra-high-risk (UHR) for psychosis.

METHODS

Experience sampling methodology was used to measure momentary stress, affect and psychotic experiences in the daily life of N = 79 UHR individuals in the EU-GEI High Risk Study. The Childhood Trauma Questionnaire was used to assess self-reported childhood trauma. Clinical outcomes were assessed at baseline, 1- and 2-year follow-up.

RESULTS

The association of stress with positive (β = -0.14, p = 0.010) and negative affect (β = 0.11, p = 0.020) was modified by transition status such that stress reactivity was greater in individuals who transitioned to psychosis. Moreover, the association of stress with negative affect (β = 0.06, p = 0.019) and psychotic experiences (β = 0.05, p = 0.037) was greater in individuals exposed to high v. low levels of childhood trauma. We also found evidence that decreased positive affect in response to stress was associated with reduced functioning at 1-year follow-up (B = 6.29, p = 0.034). In addition, there was evidence that the association of childhood trauma with poor functional outcomes was mediated by stress reactivity (e.g. indirect effect: B = -2.13, p = 0.026), but no evidence that stress reactivity mediated the association between childhood trauma and transition (e.g. indirect effect: B = 0.14, p = 0.506).

CONCLUSIONS

Emotional and psychotic stress reactivity may be potential mechanisms linking childhood trauma with clinical outcomes in UHR individuals.

Autism Spectrum Disorder and Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Psychotic experiences can occur in autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Some of the ASD individuals with these experiences may fulfil Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) criteria. A systematic literature search was performed to review the information on ASD and CHR-P. A meta-analysis of the proportion of CHR-P in ASD was conducted. The systematic review included 13 studies. The mean age of ASD individuals across the included studies was 11.09 years. The Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome subgroup was the most frequently reported. Four studies were meta-analysed, showing that 11.6% of CHR-P individuals have an ASD diagnosis. Symptoms of prodromal psychosis may be present in individuals with ASD. The transition from CHR-P to psychosis is not affected by ASD.

Prognostic Accuracy of DSM-5 Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome in Adolescents: Prospective Real-World 5-Year Cohort Study

There is limited research in adolescents at risk for psychosis. The new Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition attenuated psychosis syndrome (DSM-5 APS) criteria have not been validated in this group. We conducted a RECORD-compliant, real-world, prospective, 5-year cohort study addressing clinical profile, transition to psychosis, and prognostic accuracy of DSM-5 APS in help-seeking inpatient/outpatient adolescents accessing Children and Adolescent Neuropsychiatric services at IRCCS Mondino Foundation (Pavia, Lombardy, Italy) between 2012 and 2019. About 243 adolescents (31 early-onset psychosis [EOP]; 110 meeting DSM-5 APS criteria, DSM-5 APS; 102 not meeting psychotic or DSM-5 APS criteria, non-APS) were included. At baseline, DSM-5 APS adolescents (aged 15.4 ± 1.6) had on average 2.3 comorbid disorders (higher than EOP/non-APS, P < .001). DSM-5 APS adolescents had an intermediate psychopathological profile between non-APS/EOP (P < .001) and worsen Clinical Global Impression-Severity than non-APS (P < .001). DSM-5 APS functioning was intermediate between non-APS and EOP. 39.1% of DSM-5 APS were treated with psychotropic drugs (average = 64 days); 53.6% received psychotherapy. Follow-up of DSM-5 APS and non-APS groups lasted 33 and 26 months, respectively (median). The cumulative risk of transition at 1-5 years was 13%, 17%, 24.2%, 26.8%, and 26.8% in the DSM-5 APS group, 0%, 0%, 3.2%, 3.2%, and 3.2% in the non-APS group. The 5-year prognostic accuracy of the DSM-5 APS in adolescent was adequate (area under the curve = 0.77; Harrell's C = 0.736, 95%CI 0.697-0.775), with high sensitivity (91.3%) and suboptimal specificity (63.2%). The DSM-5 APS diagnosis can be used to detect help-seeking adolescents at risk of psychosis and predict their long-term outcomes. Future research should consolidate these findings.

Annual Research Review: Prevention of psychosis in adolescents - systematic review and meta-analysis of advances in detection, prognosis and intervention

BACKGROUND

The clinical high-risk state for psychosis (CHR-P) paradigm has facilitated the implementation of psychosis prevention into clinical practice; however, advancements in adolescent CHR-P populations are less established.

METHODS

We performed a PRISMA/MOOSE-compliant systematic review of the Web of Science database, from inception until 7 October 2019, to identify original studies conducted in CHR-P children and adolescents (mean age <18 years). Findings were systematically appraised around core themes: detection, prognosis and intervention. We performed meta-analyses (employing Q statistics and I ² test) regarding the proportion of CHR-P subgroups, the prevalence of baseline comorbid mental disorders, the risk of psychosis onset and the type of interventions received at baseline. Quality assessment and publication bias were also analysed.

RESULTS

Eighty-seven articles were included (n = 4,667 CHR-P individuals). Quality of studies ranged from 3.5 to 8 (median 5.5) on a modified Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Detection: Individuals were aged 15.6 ± 1.2 years (51.5% males), mostly (83%) presenting with attenuated positive psychotic symptoms. CHR-P psychometric accuracy improved when caregivers served as additional informants. Comorbid mood (46.4%) and anxiety (31.4%) disorders were highly prevalent. Functioning and cognition were impaired. Neurobiological studies were inconclusive.

PROGNOSIS

Risk for psychosis was 10.4% (95%CI: 5.8%-18.1%) at 6 months, 20% (95%CI: 15%-26%) at 12 months, 23% (95%CI: 18%-29%) at 24 months and 23.3% (95%CI: 17.3%-30.7%) at ≥36 months.

INTERVENTIONS

There was not enough evidence to recommend one specific treatment (including cognitive behavioural therapy) over the others (including control conditions) to prevent the transition to psychosis in this population. Randomised controlled trials suggested that family interventions, cognitive remediation and fish oil supplementation may improve cognition, symptoms and functioning. At baseline, 30% of CHR-P adolescents were prescribed antipsychotics and 60% received psychotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

It is possible to detect and formulate a group-level prognosis in adolescents at risk for psychosis. Future interventional research is required.

Cost and health impacts of adherence to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence schizophrenia guideline recommendations

BACKGROUND

Discrepancies between the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) schizophrenia guideline recommendations and current clinical practice in the UK have been reported.

AIMS

We aim to assess whether it is cost-effective to improve adherence to the NICE schizophrenia guideline recommendations, compared with current practice.

METHOD

A previously developed whole-disease model for schizophrenia, using the discrete event simulation method, was adapted to assess the cost and health impacts of adherence to the NICE recommendations. Three scenarios to improve adherence to the clinical guidelines were modelled: universal provision of cognitive-behavioural therapy for patients at clinical high risk of psychosis, universal provision of family intervention for patients with first-episode psychosis and prompt provision of clozapine for patients with treatment-resistant schizophrenia. The primary outcomes were lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years gained.

RESULTS

The results suggest full adherence to the guideline recommendations would decrease cost and improve quality-adjusted life-years. Based on the NICE willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000-£30 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, prompt provision of clozapine for patients with treatment-resistant schizophrenia results in the greatest net monetary benefit, followed by universal provision of cognitive-behavioural therapy for patients at clinical high risk of psychosis, and universal provision of family intervention for patients with first-episode psychosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that adherence to guideline recommendations would decrease cost and improve quality-adjusted life-years. Greater investment is needed to improve guideline adherence and therefore improve patient quality of life and realise potential cost savings.

Preventive interventions for individuals at ultra high risk for psychosis: An updated and extended meta-analysis

Intervention at the earliest illness stage, in ultra or clinical high-risk individuals, or indicated prevention, currently represents the most promising strategy to ameliorate, delay or prevent psychosis. We review the current state of evidence and conduct a broad-spectrum meta-analysis of various outcomes: transition to psychosis, attenuated positive and negative psychotic symptoms, mania, depression, anxiety, general psychopathology, symptom-related distress, functioning, quality of life, and treatment acceptability. 26 randomized controlled trials were included. Meta-analytically pooled interventions reduced transition rate (risk ratio [RR] = 0.57, 95%CI 0.41-0.81) and attenuated positive psychotic symptoms at 12-months (standardized mean difference = -0.15, 95%CI = -0.28--0.01). When stratified by intervention type (pharmacological, psychological), only the pooled effect of psychological interventions on transition rate was significant. Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) was associated with a reduction in incidence at 12-months (RR = 0.52, 95%CI = 0.33-0.82) and 18-48-months (RR = 0.60, 95%CI = 0.42-0.84), but not 6-months. Findings at 12-months and 18-48-months were robust in sensitivity and subgroup analyses. All other outcomes were non-significant. To date, effects of trialed treatments are specific to transition and, a lesser extent, attenuated positive symptoms, highlighting the future need to target other symptom domains and functional outcomes. Sound evidence supports CBT in reducing transition and the value of intervening at this illness stage. STUDY REGISTRATION: Research Registry ID: reviewregistry907.

Neural correlates of emotional processing in psychosis risk and onset - A systematic review and meta-analysis of fMRI studies

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The neural bases of altered emotion processing in psychosis are still unclear.

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Systematic review indicated widespread activation decreases to emotion in first-episode psychosis.

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Evidence in people at clinical high-risk for psychosis lacked convergence.

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These findings were corroborated by image-based meta-analyses.

Aberrant emotion processing is a well-established component of psychotic disorders and is already present at the first episode of psychosis (FEP). However, the role of emotion processing abnormalities in the emergence of psychosis and the underlying neurobiology remain unclear. Here, we systematically reviewed functional magnetic resonance studies that used emotion processing task paradigms in FEP patients, and in people at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHRp). Image-based meta-analyses with Seed-based d Mapping on available studies (n = 6) were also performed. Compared to controls, FEP patients showed decreased neural responses to emotion, particularly in the amygdala and anterior cingulate cortex. There were no significant differences between CHRp subjects and controls, but a high degree of heterogeneity was identified across studies. The role of altered emotion processing in the early phase of psychosis may be clarified through more homogenous experimental designs, particularly in the CHRp population.

Using Natural Language Processing on Electronic Health Records to Enhance Detection and Prediction of Psychosis Risk

BACKGROUND

Using novel data mining methods such as natural language processing (NLP) on electronic health records (EHRs) for screening and detecting individuals at risk for psychosis.

METHOD

The study included all patients receiving a first index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) NHS Foundation Trust between January 1, 2008, and July 28, 2018. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO)-regularized Cox regression was used to refine and externally validate a refined version of a five-item individualized, transdiagnostic, clinically based risk calculator previously developed (Harrell's C = 0.79) and piloted for implementation. The refined version included 14 additional NLP-predictors: tearfulness, poor appetite, weight loss, insomnia, cannabis, cocaine, guilt, irritability, delusions, hopelessness, disturbed sleep, poor insight, agitation, and paranoia.

RESULTS

A total of 92 151 patients with a first index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within the SLaM Trust were included in the derivation (n = 28 297) or external validation (n = 63 854) data sets. Mean age was 33.6 years, 50.7% were women, and 67.0% were of white race/ethnicity. Mean follow-up was 1590 days. The overall 6-year risk of psychosis in secondary mental health care was 3.4 (95% CI, 3.3-3.6). External validation indicated strong performance on unseen data (Harrell's C 0.85, 95% CI 0.84-0.86), an increase of 0.06 from the original model.

CONCLUSIONS

Using NLP on EHRs can considerably enhance the prognostic accuracy of psychosis risk calculators. This can help identify patients at risk of psychosis who require assessment and specialized care, facilitating earlier detection and potentially improving patient outcomes.

Generalized neurocognitive impairment in individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis: The possible key role of slowed processing speed

OBJECTIVE

Widespread neurocognitive impairment is well-established in individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) for developing psychoses, but it is unknown whether slowed processing speed may underlie impairment in other neurocognitive domains, as found in schizophrenia. The study delineated domain functioning in a UHR sample and examined if neurocognitive slowing might account for deficits across domains.

METHODS

The cross-sectional study included 50 UHR individuals with no (n = 38) or minimal antipsychotic exposure (n = 12; mean lifetime dose of haloperidol equivalent = 17.56 mg; SD = 13.04) and 50 matched healthy controls. Primary analyses compared group performance across neurocognitive domains before and after covarying for processing speed. To examine the specificity of processing speed effects, post hoc analyses examined the impact of the other neurocognitive domains and intelligence as covariates.

RESULTS

UHR individuals exhibited significant impairment across all neurocognitive domains (all ps ≤ .010), with medium to large effect sizes (Cohen's ds = -0.53 to -1.12). Only processing speed used as covariate eliminated significant between-group differences in all other domains, reducing unadjusted Cohen's d values with 68% on average, whereas the other domains used as covariates averagely reduced unadjusted Cohen's d values with 20% to 48%. When covarying each of the other domains after their shared variance with speed of processing was removed, all significant between-group domain differences remained (all ps ≤ .024).

CONCLUSION

Slowed processing speed may underlie generalized neurocognitive impairment in UHR individuals and represent a potential intervention target.

Predictors of remission from the ultra-high risk state for psychosis

AIM

A significant proportion of individuals at Ultra-High Risk (UHR) for psychosis do not transition to manifest psychosis. Many non-transitioning UHR individuals do, however, display poor long-term outcomes such as persistence of attenuated psychotic symptoms. Evidence is scarce on which variables may predict a better clinical and functional prognosis such as remission from the UHR state.

METHODS

A total of 146 UHR individuals were enrolled in a randomized clinical trial (RCT), with this being analyses secondary to the RCT. Participants were assessed on multiple domains of symptoms, functioning, neuro- and social cognition. Regression analyses elucidated on the predictive power of these measures to remission from the UHR status (ie, not meeting UHR criteria) at 12-month follow-up.

RESULTS

Of the 91 UHR individuals attending 12-month follow-up, 33 (36%) exhibited remission from the UHR state. Regression analyses revealed baseline functioning to be a significant predictor of risk remission, and this was maintained when controlling for the effect of antipsychotic medication, gender and estimated IQ. The individuals with remission from the UHR state showed lower attenuated psychotic- and depressive symptoms along with better functioning at 12-month follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate functioning to be a contributor to the symptomatic recovery of UHR individuals, but a large amount of the variance on risk remission is, however, explained by other factors. Additionally, our findings suggest that UHR individuals with better functioning at ascertainment may present with a better clinical and functional prognosis, which may inform on the need for monitoring and intervention in this subgroup.

The case for improved transdiagnostic detection of first-episode psychosis: Electronic health record cohort study

BACKGROUND

Improving outcomes of a First Episode of Psychosis (FEP) relies on the ability to detect most individuals with emerging psychosis and treat them in specialised Early Intervention (EI) services. Efficacy of current detection strategies is undetermined.

METHODS

RECORD-compliant clinical, 6-year, retrospective, transdiagnostic, lifespan-inclusive, Electronic Health Record (EHR) cohort study, representing real-world secondary mental healthcare in South London and Maudsley (SLaM) NHS. All individuals accessing SLaM in the period 2007-2017 and receiving any ICD-10 diagnosis other than persistent psychosis were included. Descriptive statistics, Kaplan-Meier curves, logistic regression, epidemiological incidence of psychosis in the general population were used to address pathways to care and detection power of EI services for FEP.

RESULTS

A total of 106,706 individuals underwent the 6-year follow-up: they were mostly single (72.57%) males (50.51%) of white ethnicity (60.01%), aged on average 32.96 years, with an average Health Of the Nation Outcome Scale score of 11.12 and mostly affected with F40-48 Neurotic/stress-related/somatoform disorders (27.46%). Their transdiagnostic risk of developing a FEP cumulated to 0.072 (95%CI 0.067-0.077) at 6 years. Those individuals who developed a FEP (n = 1841) entered healthcare mostly (79.02%) through inpatient mental health services (29.76%), community mental health services (29.54%) or accident and emergency departments (19.50%); at the time of FEP onset, most of them (46.43%) were under the acute care pathway. Individuals contacting accident and emergency departments had an increased risk of FEP (OR 2.301, 95%CI 2.095-2.534, P < 0.001). The proportion of SLaM FEP cases that were eligible and under the care of EI services was 0.456 at any time. The epidemiological proportion of FEP cases in the sociodemographically-matched general population that was detected by EI service was 0.373.

CONCLUSIONS

More than half of individuals who develop a FEP remain undetected by current pathways to care and EI services. Improving detection strategies should become a mainstream area in the future generation of early psychosis research.

Intervention strategies for ultra-high risk for psychosis: Progress in delaying the onset and reducing the impact of first-episode psychosis

Over a quarter of a century ago, the formulation of the "at risk mental state" and operational criteria to prospectively identify individuals at "clinical" or "ultra-high risk" (UHR) for psychosis created a global wave of research momentum aimed at predicting and preventing first-episode psychosis. A substantial number of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were conducted to determine if transition to psychosis could be delayed or even prevented. The efficacy of a range of interventions was examined, with standard meta-analyses clearly indicating that these could at least delay transition for 1-2 years and that outcomes improve. Recently, network meta-analyses have attempted to identify the most effective intervention. These highlighted the fact that no one form of intervention is superior to the rest, a finding interpreted in such a way as to create doubts concerning the value of intervening. These doubts have been reinforced by a subsequent Cochrane review which judged the quality of the evidence as low or very low. Here, we report a narrative review of findings from RCTs and meta-analyses on the efficacy of interventions in UHR. We also critique the network meta-analyses and the Cochrane review, and indicate that many of the trials were of the highest possible quality for such research, and were published in top ranked psychiatry journals, which demand such quality. Although outcomes vary, and the UHR group is clearly heterogeneous, we highlight the clinical benefits of psychosocial treatment. The next generation of clinical trials seek to elucidate the optimal type, duration and sequence of interventions.

Establishing a clinical service to prevent psychosis: What, how and when? Systematic review

The first rate-limiting step to successfully translate prevention of psychosis in to clinical practice is to establish specialised Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) services. This study systematises the knowledge regarding CHR-P services and provides guidelines for translational implementation. We conducted a PRISMA/MOOSE-compliant (PROSPERO-CRD42020163640) systematic review of Web of Science to identify studies until 4/05/2020 reporting on CHR-P service configuration, outreach strategy and referrals, service user characteristics, interventions, and outcomes. Fifty-six studies (1998-2020) were included, encompassing 51 distinct CHR-P services across 15 countries and a catchment area of 17,252,666 people. Most services (80.4%) consisted of integrated multidisciplinary teams taking care of CHR-P and other patients. Outreach encompassed active (up to 97.6%) or passive (up to 63.4%) approaches: referrals came mostly (90%) from healthcare agencies. CHR-P individuals were more frequently males (57.2%). Most (70.6%) services accepted individuals aged 12-35 years, typically assessed with the CAARMS/SIPS (83.7%). Baseline comorbid mental conditions were reported in two-third (69.5%) of cases, and unemployment in one third (36.6%). Most services provided up to 2-years (72.4%), of clinical monitoring (100%), psychoeducation (81.1%), psychosocial support (73%), family interventions (73%), individual (67.6%) and group (18.9%) psychotherapy, physical health interventions (37.8%), antipsychotics (87.1%), antidepressants (74.2%), anxiolytics (51.6%), and mood stabilisers (38.7%). Outcomes were more frequently ascertained clinically (93.0%) and included: persistence of symptoms/comorbidities (67.4%), transition to psychosis (53.5%), and functional status (48.8%). We provide ten practical recommendations for implementation of CHR-P services. Health service knowledge summarised by the current study will facilitate translational efforts for implementation of CHR-P services worldwide.

Depression: An actionable outcome for those at clinical high-risk

Comorbid diagnoses are common in youth who are at clinical high-risk (CHR) for developing psychosis, with depression being the most common. The aim of this paper is to examine depression over two years in a large sample of CHR youth who do not make the transition to psychosis, considering both categorical and dimensional ratings of depression severity. The sample consisted of 267 CHR youth who were followed for two years. Based on DSM-IV diagnoses over this time period, 100 CHR individuals never received a diagnosis of depression, 64 individuals continuously met criteria for depression, 92 individuals received a diagnosis of depression at one or more timepoints, and 11 participants had a diagnosis of depression only at 24-months. These groupings were supported by six-monthly ratings on the Calgary Depression Scale. The majority of this sample experienced a major depressive episode on more than one occasion, suggesting that depression and depressive symptoms identify a domain of substantial unmet clinical need. Recommendations are that depression in CHR youth and young adults should be monitored more frequently and that there is a need for clinical trials to address depression systematically in this vulnerable population.

Sleep disturbances and the At Risk Mental State: A systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

To synthesise and investigate how sleep disturbances relate to psychotic symptoms, functioning and Quality of Life (QoL) in At Risk Mental State (ARMS) youth.

METHOD

A comprehensive search of six databases (MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science and CENTRAL) was conducted. Eligible studies provided data on sleep disturbances or disorders in ARMS patients.

RESULTS

Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria (n = 1962 ARMS patients) including 7 cross-sectional studies, 2 RCT's and 7 cohort studies. Narrative synthesis revealed that self-reported sleep (e.g., general disturbances, fragmented night time sleep and nightmares) was poorer among ARMS patients compared to healthy controls. In the limited studies (n = 4) including objective measurements of sleep disturbances, ARMS patients experienced higher levels of movement during sleep, more daytime naps and increased sleep latency compared to controls. Furthermore, sleep disturbances were associated with attenuated psychotic symptoms and functional outcomes cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Only one study investigated the relationship between sleep and QoL. The exploratory meta-analysis revealed a significant difference in self-reported sleep disturbances measured by the PSQI (mean difference in score: 3.30 (95% CI 1.87, 4.74), p < 0.00001) and SIPS (mean difference in score: 1.58 (95% CI 0.80, 2.35), p < 0.00001) of ARMS patients compared to control groups.

CONCLUSIONS

ARMS individuals report impaired sleep quality and reduced sleep quantity compared to healthy controls. However, further research is needed to explore the longitudinal relationship between sleep disruptions and QoL in early psychosis. Significant variations in how sleep is measured across studies highlight a need to assess disturbances to sleep using robust and consistent approaches in this patient group.

Evaluation of variability in individual response to treatments in the clinical high-risk state for psychosis: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) may differ considerably in their response to indicated preventive interventions. No studies have tested this.

METHOD

PRISMA-compliant systematic review of the Web of Science (MEDLINE), PsycInfo, CENTRAL and unpublished/gray literature up to 1 September 2019. RCTs in CHR-P individuals, reporting on attenuated positive psychotic symptoms were included. The primary outcome was the variability ratio between the variance of the severity of attenuated positive psychotic symptoms in the indicated intervention condition vs the control condition (needs-based interventions, NBI) at 6 and 12 months. Random effect models, C statistics, meta-regressions/sensitivity analyses and Cochrane Risk of Bias assessment were performed.

RESULTS

Overall, 1707 individuals from 14 RCTs (57% male, mean age = 20) reporting on the impact of preventive interventions on attenuated positive psychotic symptoms were included. At 6 months, the variability ratio was 1 (95% CI 0.89-1.12). At 12 months, the variability ratio was higher in the indicated intervention compared to the NBI condition but not statistically different: 1.09 (95% CI 0.94-1.25). Between-study heterogeneity was serious (I² = 51% and 68%, respectively), but sensitivity analysis suggested it may be related to two outlying studies or larger variability in the response to treatment in small studies.

CONCLUSIONS

There is no evidence for individual differences in CHR-P response to preventive treatments. Although the study cannot exclude that subsets of CHR-P individuals may respond differently to preventive treatments, it indicates that the average effect of preventive interventions is a reasonable estimate for the CHR-P individual.

Neurocognition and Social Cognition- Possibilities for Diagnosis and Treatment in Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis State

In recent decades, clinicians have developed the construct of ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis to characterize the prodromal phase of psychosis or classify people with weakly expressed psychotic symptoms. In this conceptual analysis, we have gathered up-to-date data about the clinical picture of neurocognition and social cognition in people at UHR for psychosis. We also discuss treatment options. A well-chosen therapeutic approach can help to deal with difficulties and delay or even prevent the development of full-blown psychotic disorders in the UHR group. Despite much evidence supporting the benefits of therapy, early interventions are still not as widely used as they should be. Thus, a better understanding of the UHR state is very important for all healthcare workers.

Counterpoint. Early intervention for psychosis risk syndromes: Minimizing risk and maximizing benefit

BACKGROUND

Malhi et al. in this issue critique the clinical high risk (CHR) syndrome for psychosis.

METHOD

Response to points of critique.

RESULTS

We agree that inconsistency in CHR nomenclature should be minimized. We respectfully disagree on other points. In our view: a) individuals with CHR and their families need help, using existing interventions, even though we do not yet fully understand disease mechanisms; b) substantial progress has been made in identification of biomarkers; c) symptoms used to identify CHR are specific to psychotic illnesses; d) CHR diagnosis is not "extremely difficult"; e) the pattern of progression, although heterogenous, is discernible; f) "psychosis-like symptoms" are common but are not used to identify CHR; and g) on the point described as 'the real risk,' CHR diagnosis does not frequently cause harmful stigma.

DISCUSSION

Malhi et al.'s arguments do not fairly characterize progress in the CHR field nor efforts to minimize stigma. That said, much work remains in areas of consistent nomenclature, mechanisms of disease, dissecting heterogeneity, and biomarkers. With regard to what the authors term the "real risk" of stigma associated with a CHR "label," however, our view is that avoiding words like "risk" and "psychosis" reinforces the stigma that both they and we mean to oppose. Moreover, patients and their families benefit from being given a term that describes what is happening to them.

Worldwide implementation of clinical services for the prevention of psychosis: The IEPA early intervention in mental health survey

BACKGROUND

Clinical research into the Clinical High Risk state for Psychosis (CHR-P) has allowed primary indicated prevention in psychiatry to improve outcomes of psychotic disorders. The strategic component of this approach is the implementation of clinical services to detect and take care of CHR-P individuals, which are recommended by several guidelines. The actual level of implementation of CHR-P services worldwide is not completely clear.

AIM

To assess the global geographical distribution, core characteristics relating to the level of implementation of CHR-P services; to overview of the main barriers that limit their implementation at scale.

METHODS

CHR-P services worldwide were invited to complete an online survey. The survey addressed the geographical distribution, general implementation characteristics and implementation barriers.

RESULTS

The survey was completed by 47 CHR-P services offering care to 22 248 CHR-P individuals: Western Europe (51.1%), North America (17.0%), East Asia (17.0%), Australia (6.4%), South America (6.4%) and Africa (2.1%). Their implementation characteristics included heterogeneous clinical settings, assessment instruments and length of care offered. Most CHR-P patients were recruited through mental or physical health services. Preventive interventions included clinical monitoring and crisis management (80.1%), supportive therapy (70.2%) or structured psychotherapy (61.7%), in combination with pharmacological treatment (in 74.5%). Core implementation barriers were staffing and financial constraints, and the recruitment of CHR-P individuals. The dynamic map of CHR-P services has been implemented on the IEPA website: https://iepa.org.au/list-a-service/.

CONCLUSIONS

Worldwide primary indicated prevention of psychosis in CHR-P individuals is possible, but the implementation of CHR-P services is heterogeneous and constrained by pragmatic challenges.

Expanding the search for emerging mental ill health to safeguard student potential and vocational success in high school: A narrative review

AIM

Young people experiencing mental ill health are more likely than their healthy aged peers to drop out of high school. This can result in social exclusion and vocational derailment. Identifying young people at risk and taking action before an illness is established or school dropout occurs is an important goal. This study aimed to examine evidence for the risk markers and at risk mental states of the clinical staging model (stage 0-1b) and whether these risk states and early symptoms impact school participation and academic attainment.

METHOD

This narrative review assembles research from both the psychiatry and education literature. It examines stage 0 to stage 1b of the clinical staging model and links the risk states and early symptoms to evidence about the academic success of young people in high school.

RESULTS

In accordance with the clinical staging model and evidence from education literature, childhood trauma and parental mental illness can impact school engagement and academic progress. Sleep disturbance can result in academic failure. Undifferentiated depression and anxiety can increase the risk for school dropout. Subthreshold psychosis and hypomanic states are associated with functional impairment and high rates of Not in Employment, Education, or Training (NEET) but are not recognized in the education literature.

CONCLUSION

Risk markers for emerging mental ill health can be identified in education research and demonstrate an impact on a student's success in high school. Clear referral protocols need to be embedded into school life to reduce risk of progression to later stages of illness and support school participation and success.

Predicting the individual risk of psychosis conversion in at-risk mental state (ARMS): a multivariate model reveals the influence of nonpsychotic prodromal symptoms

To improve the prediction of the individual risk of conversion to psychosis in UHR subjects, by considering all CAARMS' symptoms at first presentation and using a multivariate machine learning method known as logistic regression with Elastic-net shrinkage. 46 young individuals who sought help from the specialized outpatient unit at Sainte-Anne hospital and who met CAARMS criteria for UHR were assessed, among whom 27 were reassessed at follow-up (22.4 ± 6.54 months) and included in the analysis. Elastic net logistic regression was trained, using CAARMS items at baseline to predict individual evolution between converters (UHR-P) and non-converters (UHR-NP). Elastic-net was used to select the few CAARMS items that best predict the clinical evolution. All validations and significances of predictive models were computed with non-parametric re-sampling strategies that provide robust estimators even when the distributional assumption cannot be guaranteed. Among the 25 CAARMS items, the Elastic net selected 'obsessive-compulsive symptoms' and 'aggression/dangerous behavior' as risk factors for conversion while 'anhedonia' and 'mood swings/lability' were associated with non-conversion at follow-up. In the ten-fold stratified cross-validation, the classification achieved 81.8% of sensitivity (P = 0.035) and 93.7% of specificity (P = 0.0016). Non-psychotic prodromal symptoms bring valuable information to improve the prediction of conversion to psychosis. Elastic net logistic regression applied to clinical data is a promising way to switch from group prediction to an individualized prediction.

Real-world long-term outcomes in individuals at clinical risk for psychosis: The case for extending duration of care

BACKGROUND

Most services for individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) provide short-term clinical care. This study determines the real-world and long-term clinical outcomes beyond transition to psychosis in a large cohort of CHR-P individuals.

METHOD

Retrospective RECORD-compliant real-world Electronic Health Records (EHR) cohort study in secondary mental health care (the South London and the Maudsley -SLaM- NHS Foundation Trust). All CHR-P patients accessing the CHR-P service at SLaM in the period 2001-2018 were included. Main outcomes were long-term cumulative risk of first: (i) developing an ICD-10 psychotic disorder (primary outcome), receiving a treatment with (iia) antipsychotic medication, (iib) benzodiazepines, (iic) other psychotropic medications, (iid) psychotherapy, receiving an (iiia) informal or (iiib) compulsory admission into a mental health hospital, and the time to these events; (iiic) number of days spent in hospital and (iv) cumulative risk of death for any reason and age/gender Standardised Mortality Ratio (SMR). Data were extracted from the EHR and analysed with Kaplan Meier failure functions, Cox and zero-inflated negative binomial regressions.

FINDINGS

600 CHR-P patients (80.43% Attenuated Psychotic Symptoms, APS; 18.06%, Brief and Limited Intermittent Psychotic Symptoms, BLIPS, 1.51% Genetic Risk and Deterioration Syndrome) were included (mean age 22.63 years, range 13-36; 55.33% males; 46.44% white, mean duration of untreated attenuated psychotic symptoms 676.32 days, 1105.40 SD). The cumulative risk to first psychosis was 0.365 (95%CI 0.302-0.437) at 11 years; first antipsychotic 0.777 (95%CI 0.702-0.844) at 9 years; first benzodiazepine 0.259 (95%CI 0.183-0.359) at 12 years; first other types of medications 0.630 (95%CI 0.538-0.772) at 9 years; first psychotherapy 0.814 (95%CI 0.764-0.859) at 9 years; first informal admission 0.378 (95%CI 0.249-0.546) at 12 years; first compulsory admission 0.251 (95%CI 0.175-0.352) at 12 years; those admitted spent on average 94.84 (SD=169.94) days in hospital; the cumulative risk of death for any reason was 0.036 (95%CI 0.012-0.103) at 9 years, with an SMR of 3.9 (95%CI 1.20-6.6). Compared to APS, BLIPS had a higher risk of developing psychosis, being admitted compulsorily into hospital, receiving antipsychotics and benzodiazepines and lower probability of receiving psychotherapy. Other prognostic factors of long-term outcomes included age, symptoms severity, duration of untreated attenuated psychotic symptoms, ethnicity and employment status.

INTERPRETATION

Duration of care provided by CHR-P services should be expanded to address long-term real-world outcomes.

FUNDING

This study was supported by the King's College London Confidence in Concept award from the Medical Research Council (MRC) (MC_PC_16048) to PF-P. GSP is supported by the Alicia Koplowitz Foundation. HB is supported by a National Institute for Health Research Maudsley Biomedical Research Centre studentship.

Transdiagnostic individualized clinically-based risk calculator for the automatic detection of individuals at-risk and the prediction of psychosis: external replication in 2,430,333 US patients

The real-world impact of psychosis prevention is reliant on effective strategies for identifying individuals at risk. A transdiagnostic, individualized, clinically-based risk calculator to improve this has been developed and externally validated twice in two different UK healthcare trusts with convincing results. The prognostic performance of this risk calculator outside the UK is unknown. All individuals who accessed primary or secondary health care services belonging to the IBM® MarketScan® Commercial Database between January 2015 and December 2017, and received a first ICD-10 index diagnosis of nonorganic/nonpsychotic mental disorder, were included. According to the risk calculator, age, gender, ethnicity, age-by-gender, and ICD-10 cluster diagnosis at index date were used to predict development of any ICD-10 nonorganic psychotic disorder. Because patient-level ethnicity data were not available city-level ethnicity proportions were used as proxy. The study included 2,430,333 patients with a mean follow-up of 15.36 months and cumulative incidence of psychosis at two years of 1.43%. There were profound differences compared to the original development UK database in terms of case-mix, psychosis incidence, distribution of baseline predictors (ICD-10 cluster diagnoses), availability of patient-level ethnicity data, follow-up time and availability of specialized clinical services for at-risk individuals. Despite these important differences, the model retained accuracy significantly above chance (Harrell's C = 0.676, 95% CI: 0.672-0.679). To date, this is the largest international external replication of an individualized prognostic model in the field of psychiatry. This risk calculator is transportable on an international scale to improve the automatic detection of individuals at risk of psychosis.

Progression from being at-risk to psychosis: next steps

Over the past 20 years there has been a great deal of research into those considered to be at risk for developing psychosis. Much has been learned and studies have been encouraging. The aim of this paper is to offer an update of the current status of research on risk for psychosis, and what the next steps might be in examining the progression from CHR to psychosis. Advances have been made in accurate prediction, yet there are some methodological issues in ascertainment, diagnosis, the use of data-driven selection methods and lack of external validation. Although there have been several high-quality treatment trials the heterogeneity of this clinical high-risk population has to be addressed so that their treatment needs can be properly met. Recommendations for the future include more collaborative research programmes, and ensuring they are accessible and harmonized with respect to criteria and outcomes so that the field can continue to move forward with the development of large collaborative consortiums as well as increased funding for multisite projects.

Outreach and support in South-London (OASIS) 2001-2020: Twenty years of early detection, prognosis and preventive care for young people at risk of psychosis

This study aims to describe twenty years of early detection, prognosis and preventive care in the Outreach and Support In South-London (OASIS) mental health service for individuals at Clinical High risk of psychosis (CHR-P). The study presents a comprehensive analysis of the 2001- 2020 activity of the OASIS team encompassing core domains: (i) service characteristics, (ii) detection, (iii) prognosis, (iv) treatment and (v) clinical research. The analyses employed descriptive statistics, population-level data, the epidemiological incidence of psychosis, Kaplan Meier failure functions and Greenwood 95% CIs and Electronic Health Records. OASIS is part of the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) NHS trust, the largest European mental health provider, serving a total urban population of 1,358,646 individuals (population aged 16-35: 454,525). Incidence of psychosis in OASIS's catchment area ranges from 58.3 to 71.9 cases per 100,000 person-years, and it is higher than the national average of 41.5 cases per 100,000 person-year. OASIS is a standalone, NHS-funded, multidisciplinary (team leader, consultant and junior psychiatrists, clinical psychologists, mental health professionals), transitional (for those aged 14-35 years) community mental health service with a yearly caseload of 140 CHR-P individuals. OASIS regularly delivers a comprehensive service promotion outreach to several local community organisations. Referrals to OASIS (2366) are made by numerous agencies; about one-third of the referrals eventually met CHR-P criteria. Overall, 600 CHR-P individuals (55.33% males, mean age 22.63 years, white ethnicity 46.44%) have been under the care of the OASIS service: 80.43% met attenuated psychotic symptoms, 18.06% brief and limited intermittent psychotic symptoms and 1.51% genetic risk and deterioration CHR-P criteria. All CHR-P individuals were offered cognitive behavioural therapy and psychosocial support; medications were used depending on individual needs. The cumulative risk of psychosis at ten years was 0.365 (95%CI 0.302-0.437). At six years follow-up, across two-third of individuals non-transitioning to psychosis, 79.24% still displayed some mental health problem, and only 20.75% achieved a complete clinical remission. Research conducted at OASIS encompassed clinical, prognostic, neurobiological and interventional studies and leveraged local, national and international infrastructures; over the past ten years, OASIS-related research attracted about £ 50 million of grant income, with 5,922 citations in the international databases. Future developments may include broadening OASIS to prevent other serious mental disorders beyond psychosis and fostering translational risk prediction and interventional research. With a twenty-years activity, OASIS' cutting-edge quality of preventive care, combined with translational research innovations, consolidated the service as a leading reference model for evidence-based prevention of psychosis worldwide.

Real-World Clinical Outcomes Two Years After Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk: Electronic Health Record Cohort Study

The objective of this study is to describe the 2-year real-world clinical outcomes after transition to psychosis in patients at clinical high-risk. The study used the clinical electronic health record cohort study including all patients receiving a first index primary diagnosis of nonorganic International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 psychotic disorder within the early psychosis pathway in the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) National Health Service (NHS) Trust from 2001 to 2017. Outcomes encompassed: cumulative probability (at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months) of receiving a first (1) treatment with antipsychotic, (2) informal admission, (3) compulsory admission, and (4) treatment with clozapine and (5) numbers of days spent in hospital (at 12 and 24 months) in patients transitioning to psychosis from clinical high-risk services (Outreach and Support in south London; OASIS) compared to other first-episode groups. Analyses included logistic and 0-inflated negative binomial regressions. In the study, 1561 patients were included; those who had initially been managed by OASIS and had subsequently transitioned to a first episode of psychosis (n = 130) were more likely to receive antipsychotic medication (at 3, 6, and 24 months; all P < .023), to be admitted informally (at all timepoints, all P < .004) and on a compulsory basis (at all timepoints, all P < .013), and to have spent more time in hospital (all timepoints, all P < .007) than first-episode patients who were already psychotic when seen by the OASIS service (n = 310), or presented to early intervention services (n = 1121). The likelihood of receiving clozapine was similar across all groups (at 12/24 months, all P < .101). Transition to psychosis from a clinical high-risk state is associated with severe real-world clinical outcomes. Prevention of transition to psychosis should remain a core target of future research. The study protocol was registered on www.researchregistry.com; researchregistry5039).

Early language measures associated with later psychosis features in 22q11.2 deletion syndrome

The 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11DS) is associated with impaired cognitive functions and increased risk for schizophrenia spectrum disorders. Speech and language deficits are prominent, with evidence of decline anteceding emergence of psychosis. There is paucity of data examining language function in children with 22q11DS with follow-up assessment of psychosis spectrum (PS) symptoms. We examined the association between early language measures, obtained clinically, and PS status, obtained on average 10.1 years later, in 166 youths with 22q11DS, with repeated language testing in 48. Participants were administered the Preschool Language Scale (receptive/expressive), and/or, for school aged children, the Clinical Evaluation of Language Fundamentals (receptive/expressive), and age appropriate IQ tests. The structured interview for prodromal syndromes (SIPS) assessed PS symptoms. We found that performance on all preschool measures showed age associated decline, and males performed more poorly on core composite (receptive/expressive) and receptive language measures. For language assessment later in childhood, poorer performance was consistently associated with subsequent PS status. Furthermore, steeper age-related decline was seen in the PS group across language measures and marginally for full-scale IQ. These findings suggest that while preschool language testing is useful in characterizing performance decline in individuals with 22q11DS, it does not robustly differentiate those with subsequent PS from those without. However, language testing in the school age population can help identify individuals with 22q11DS who are at risk for psychosis. Such data are needed for elucidating a lifespan trajectory for affected individuals and may help understand pathways to psychosis applicable to the general population.

Deconstructing the relationships between self-esteem and paranoia in early psychosis: an experience sampling study

Background

No studies have examined the association between self‐esteem and paranoia developmentally across the critical stages of psychosis emergence. The present study fills this gap and extends previous research by examining how different dimensions, measures, and types of self‐esteem relate to daily‐life paranoia across at‐risk mental states for psychosis (ARMS) and first episode of psychosis (FEP) stages. Furthermore, the moderation effects of momentary anxiety and momentary perceived social support on the association between momentary self‐esteem and paranoia were examined.

Design

This study used a multilevel, cross‐sectional design.

Methods

One‐hundred and thirteen participants (74 ARMS and 39 FEP) were assessed repeatedly over seven consecutive days on levels of momentary paranoia, self‐esteem, anxiety and perceived social support using experience sampling methodology. Measures of trait and implicit self‐esteem were also collected.

Results

Global momentary and trait self‐esteem, and their positive and negative dimensions, were related to daily‐life paranoia in both ARMS and FEP groups. Conversely, implicit self‐esteem was not associated with daily‐life paranoia in either group. Anxiety negatively moderated the association between positive self‐esteem and lower paranoia, whereas both feeling close to others and feeling cared for by others strengthened this association. However, only feeling cared for by others moderated the association between negative self‐esteem and higher paranoia.

Conclusions

Different types, measures and dimensions of self‐esteem are differentially related to paranoia in early psychosis and are influenced by contextual factors in daily‐life. This yields a more complex picture of these associations and offers insights that might aid psychological interventions.

Practitioner points

Different measures (trait and momentary) and dimensions (positive and negative) of explicit self‐esteem are distinctly related to paranoia across risk and first‐episode stages of psychosis.

Explicit, but not implicit, self‐esteem is associated with real‐life paranoia in incipient psychosis.

Anxiety boosted the association of poor self‐esteem and paranoia ideation in daily‐life.

Social closeness, but feeling cared for by others in particular, interacts with self‐esteem tempering the expression of paranoia in real life.

Individualized Diagnostic and Prognostic Models for Patients With Psychosis Risk Syndromes: A Meta-analytic View on the State of the Art

BACKGROUND

The clinical high risk (CHR) paradigm has facilitated research into the underpinnings of help-seeking individuals at risk for developing psychosis, aiming at predicting and possibly preventing transition to the overt disorder. Statistical methods such as machine learning and Cox regression have provided the methodological basis for this research by enabling the construction of diagnostic models (i.e., distinguishing CHR individuals from healthy individuals) and prognostic models (i.e., predicting a future outcome) based on different data modalities, including clinical, neurocognitive, and neurobiological data. However, their translation to clinical practice is still hindered by the high heterogeneity of both CHR populations and methodologies applied.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed the literature on diagnostic and prognostic models built on Cox regression and machine learning. Furthermore, we conducted a meta-analysis on prediction performances investigating heterogeneity of methodological approaches and data modality.

RESULTS

A total of 44 articles were included, covering 3707 individuals for prognostic studies and 1052 individuals for diagnostic studies (572 CHR patients and 480 healthy control subjects). CHR patients could be classified against healthy control subjects with 78% sensitivity and 77% specificity. Across prognostic models, sensitivity reached 67% and specificity reached 78%. Machine learning models outperformed those applying Cox regression by 10% sensitivity. There was a publication bias for prognostic studies yet no other moderator effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results may be driven by substantial clinical and methodological heterogeneity currently affecting several aspects of the CHR field and limiting the clinical implementability of the proposed models. We discuss conceptual and methodological harmonization strategies to facilitate more reliable and generalizable models for future clinical practice.

Intranasal oxytocin increases heart-rate variability in men at clinical high risk for psychosis: a proof-of-concept study

Autonomic nervous system (ANS) dysfunction (i.e., increased sympathetic and/or decreased parasympathetic activity) has been proposed to contribute to psychosis vulnerability. Yet, we still lack directed therapeutic strategies that improve ANS regulation in psychosis or at-risk states. The oxytocin system constitutes a potential therapeutic target, given its role in ANS regulation. However, whether intranasal oxytocin ameliorates autonomic regulation during emerging psychosis is currently unknown. We pooled together two datasets, one of 30 men at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P), and another of 17 healthy men, who had participated in two double-blinded, placebo-controlled, randomised, crossover MRI studies with similar protocols. All participants self-administered 40 IU of intranasal oxytocin or placebo using a nasal spray. We recorded pulse plethysmography during a period of 8 min at about 1 h post dosing and estimated heart rate (HR) and high-frequency HR variability (HF-HRV), an index of cardio-parasympathetic activity. CHR-P and healthy men did not differ at resting HR or HF-HRV under placebo. We found a significant condition × treatment effect for HF-HRV, showing that intranasal oxytocin, compared with placebo, increased HF-HRV in CHR-P but not in healthy men. The main effects of treatment and condition were not significant. In this proof-of-concept study, we show that intranasal oxytocin increases cardio-parasympathetic activity in CHR-P men, highlighting its therapeutic potential to improve autonomic regulation in this clinical group. Our findings support the need for further research on the preventive and therapeutic potential of intranasal oxytocin during emerging psychosis, where we lack effective treatments.

Cognitive behavioral therapy in adolescents with early-onset psychosis: a randomized controlled pilot study

Cognitive behavioral therapy for psychosis (CBT) is an effective treatment in adult patients with schizophrenia. However, no randomized controlled and blinded trial in adolescents with early-onset psychosis (EOP) has been conducted. Therefore, the present pilot study explores the acceptance, tolerability, feasibility, and safety of a modified CBT in adolescents with EOP. Twenty-five adolescents with EOP were randomized to either 9 months (20 sessions) of CBT + treatment as usual (TAU) or TAU alone. The primary endpoint was the PANSS-positive subscale (P1-7). Secondary endpoints included psychopathology, global functioning, and quality of life (QoL). Acceptance, tolerability, feasibility, and safety were assessed. Blinded assessments took place by the end of the treatment (9 months) and at 24-month follow-up. Despite improvements in both groups and lack of statistical significance between CBT + TAU and TAU regarding the primary endpoint, we observed between-group effect sizes of at least d = 0.39 in favor of CBT + TAU at post-treatment for delusions, negative symptoms, functioning and QoL after the intervention and effect sizes of at least d = 0.35 after 24 months. CBT in EOP was highly acceptable (73.5% agreed to randomization), well-tolerated (83.1% attendance rate, no drop-outs), and safe (one serious adverse event (SAE) in CBT + TAU in comparison with six SAEs in TAU). These findings suggest that CBT adapted to the needs of adolescents with EOP is a promising approach regarding negative symptoms, functioning, and QoL. CBT is a safe and tolerable treatment. However, due to the small sample size and the pilot character of the study, these conclusions are limited, and should be tested in a larger, adequately powered randomized controlled trial.

Prevention of Psychosis: Advances in Detection, Prognosis, and Intervention

IMPORTANCE

Detection, prognosis, and indicated interventions in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) are key components of preventive psychiatry.

OBJECTIVE

To provide a comprehensive, evidence-based systematic appraisal of the advancements and limitations of detection, prognosis, and interventions for CHR-P individuals and to formulate updated recommendations.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Reviews, and Ovid/PsychINFO were searched for articles published from January 1, 2013, to June 30, 2019, to identify meta-analyses conducted in CHR-P individuals. MEDLINE was used to search the reference lists of retrieved articles. Data obtained from each article included first author, year of publication, topic investigated, type of publication, study design and number, sample size of CHR-P population and comparison group, type of comparison group, age and sex of CHR-P individuals, type of prognostic assessment, interventions, quality assessment (using AMSTAR [Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews]), and key findings with their effect sizes.

FINDINGS

In total, 42 meta-analyses published in the past 6 years and encompassing 81 outcomes were included. For the detection component, CHR-P individuals were young (mean [SD] age, 20.6 [3.2] years), were more frequently male (58%), and predominantly presented with attenuated psychotic symptoms lasting for more than 1 year before their presentation at specialized services. CHR-P individuals accumulated several sociodemographic risk factors compared with control participants. Substance use (33% tobacco use and 27% cannabis use), comorbid mental disorders (41% with depressive disorders and 15% with anxiety disorders), suicidal ideation (66%), and self-harm (49%) were also frequently seen in CHR-P individuals. CHR-P individuals showed impairments in work (Cohen d = 0.57) or educational functioning (Cohen d = 0.21), social functioning (Cohen d = 1.25), and quality of life (Cohen d = 1.75). Several neurobiological and neurocognitive alterations were confirmed in this study. For the prognosis component, the prognostic accuracy of CHR-P instruments was good, provided they were used in clinical samples. Overall, risk of psychosis was 22% at 3 years, and the risk was the highest in the brief and limited intermittent psychotic symptoms subgroup (38%). Baseline severity of attenuated psychotic (Cohen d = 0.35) and negative symptoms (Cohen d = 0.39) as well as low functioning (Cohen d = 0.29) were associated with an increased risk of psychosis. Controlling risk enrichment and implementing sequential risk assessments can optimize prognostic accuracy. For the intervention component, no robust evidence yet exists to favor any indicated intervention over another (including needs-based interventions and control conditions) for preventing psychosis or ameliorating any other outcome in CHR-P individuals. However, because the uncertainty of this evidence is high, needs-based and psychological interventions should still be offered.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This review confirmed recent substantial advancements in the detection and prognosis of CHR-P individuals while suggesting that effective indicated interventions need to be identified. This evidence suggests a need for specialized services to detect CHR-P individuals in primary and secondary care settings, to formulate a prognosis with validated psychometric instruments, and to offer needs-based and psychological interventions.

Implementation of a Real-Time Psychosis Risk Detection and Alerting System Based on Electronic Health Records using CogStack

Recent studies have shown that an automated, lifespan-inclusive, transdiagnostic, and clinically based, individualized risk calculator provides a powerful system for supporting the early detection of individuals at-risk of psychosis at a large scale, by leveraging electronic health records (EHRs). This risk calculator has been externally validated twice and is undergoing feasibility testing for clinical implementation. Integration of this risk calculator in clinical routine should be facilitated by prospective feasibility studies, which are required to address pragmatic challenges, such as missing data, and the usability of this risk calculator in a real-world and routine clinical setting. Here, we present an approach for a prospective implementation of a real-time psychosis risk detection and alerting service in a real-world EHR system. This method leverages the CogStack platform, which is an open-source, lightweight, and distributed information retrieval and text extraction system. The CogStack platform incorporates a set of services that allow for full-text search of clinical data, lifespan-inclusive, real-time calculation of psychosis risk, early risk-alerting to clinicians, and the visual monitoring of patients over time. Our method includes: 1) ingestion and synchronization of data from multiple sources into the CogStack platform, 2) implementation of a risk calculator, whose algorithm was previously developed and validated, for timely computation of a patient's risk of psychosis, 3) creation of interactive visualizations and dashboards to monitor patients' health status over time, and 4) building automated alerting systems to ensure that clinicians are notified of patients at-risk, so that appropriate actions can be pursued. This is the first ever study that has developed and implemented a similar detection and alerting system in clinical routine for early detection of psychosis.

Predictors of study drop-out and service disengagement in patients at clinical high risk for psychosis

PURPOSE

Study drop-out during follow-up and service disengagement frequently occur in patients at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P). However, little is known about their predictors. Therefore, we aimed to analyze the rate and reasons for drop-out and service disengagement in CHR-P patients and investigate their sociodemographic and clinical predictors.

METHODS

Data from 200 patients of the prospective Früherkennung von Psychosen (FePsy) study were analyzed with competing risks survival models, considering drop-out and transition to psychosis as competing events. To investigate whether symptoms changed immediately before drop-out, t tests were applied.

RESULTS

Thirty-six percent of patients dropped out within 5 years. Almost all drop-outs also disengaged from our service. Hence, study drop-out was used as a proxy for service disengagement. Patients with more severe baseline disorganized symptoms and a late inclusion into the study were significantly more likely to disengage. Immediately before disengagement, there was significant improvement in negative symptoms only.

CONCLUSION

A considerable proportion of CHR-P patients disengaged from our clinical study and service. Patients who were included during a later study period with more assessments disengaged more often, which might have been due to more frequent invitations to follow-up assessments and thereby increasing participation burden. Hence, our study provides a cautionary note on high-frequency follow-up assessments. Larger-scale studies evaluating predictors on multiple domains would help to further elucidate drop-out and disengagement.

Dynamic ElecTronic hEalth reCord deTection (DETECT) of individuals at risk of a first episode of psychosis: a case-control development and validation study

BACKGROUND

Many individuals who will experience a first episode of psychosis (FEP) are not detected before occurrence, limiting the effect of preventive interventions. The combination of machine-learning methods and electronic health records (EHRs) could help address this gap.

METHODS

This case-control development and validation study is based on EHR data from IBM Explorys. The IBM Explorys Platform holds standardised, longitudinal, de-identified, patient-level EHR data pooled from different health-care systems with distinct EHRs. The present EHR-based studies were retrospective, matched (1:1), case-control studies compliant with RECORD, STROBE, and TRIPOD statements. The study included individuals in the IBM Explorys database who at some point between 1990 and 2018 had a diagnosis of FEP followed by schizophrenia, and psychosis-free matched control individuals from a random subsample of the full cohort. For every individual in the FEP cohort, the individual in the control cohort was matched to have a similar date for inclusion in the database and a similar total observation time. Individuals in the FEP cohort had their index date defined as the first diagnosis of psychosis or the first prescription of antipsychotic medication. Individuals in the control cohort had their index date defined to occur the same number of days after inclusion in the database as their matching FEP individual. The FEP and control cohorts were both randomly split into development and validation datasets in a ratio of 7:3. The subset of individuals in the validation dataset who had all their health-care encounters at providers that were not seen in the development dataset made up the external validation subset. A novel recurrent neural network model was developed to predict the risk of FEP 1 year before the index date by employing demographics and medical events (in the categories diagnoses, prescriptions, procedures, encounters and admissions, observations, and laboratory test results) dynamically collected in the EHR as part of clinical routine. We named the recurrent neural network Dynamic ElecTronic hEalth reCord deTection (DETECT). The main outcomes were accuracy and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Decision-curve analyses and dynamic patient journey plots were used to evaluate clinical usefulness.

FINDINGS

The FEP and control cohorts each comprised 72 860 individuals. 102 030 individuals (51 015 matching pairs) were randomly allocated to the development dataset and the remaining 43 690 to the validation dataset. In the validation dataset, 4770 individuals had all their encounters outside of the 118 790 health-care providers that were encountered in the development dataset. The data from these individuals made up the external validation subset. The median follow-up (observation time before index date) was 6·0 years (IQR 3·0-10·4). In the development dataset, DETECT's prognostic accuracy was 0·787 and AUROC was 0·868. In the validation dataset, DETECT's prognostic accuracy was 0·774 and AUROC was 0·856. In the external test subset, DETECT's balanced prognostic accuracy was 0·724 and AUROC was 0·799. Prevalence-adjusted decision-curve analyses suggested that DETECT was associated with a positive net benefit in two different scenarios for FEP detection.

INTERPRETATION

DETECT showed adequate prognostic accuracy to detect individuals at risk of developing a FEP in primary and secondary care. Replication and refinement in a population-based setting are needed to consolidate these findings.

FUNDING

Lundbeck.