Modification of Heat-Related Mortality in an Elderly Urban Population by Vegetation (Urban Green) and Proximity to Water (Urban Blue): Evidence from Lisbon, Portugal

The evolution of minimum mortality temperatures as an indicator of heat adaptation: The cases of Madrid and Seville (Spain)

The increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves is one of the most unquestionable effects of climate change. Therefore, the progressive increase in maximum temperatures will have a clear incidence on the increase in mortality, especially in countries that are vulnerable due to geographical location or their socioeconomic characteristics. Different research studies show that the mortality attributable to heat is decreasing globally, and research is centred on future scenarios. One way of detecting the existence of a lesser impact of heat is through the increase in the so-called temperature of minimum mortality (TMM). The objective of this study is to determine the temporal evolution of TMM in two Spanish provinces (Seville and Madrid) during the 1983-2018 period and to evaluate whether the rate of adaptation to heat is appropriate. We used the gross rate of daily mortality due to natural causes (CIEX: A00-R99) and the maximum daily temperature (°C) to determine the quinquennial TMM using dispersion diagrams and realizing fit using quadratic and cubic curvilinear estimation. The same analysis was carried out at the annual level, by fitting an equation to the line of TMM for each province, whose slope, if significant (p < 0.05) represents the annual rate of variation in TMM. The results observed in this quinquennial analysis showed that the TMM is higher in Seville than in Madrid and that it is higher among men than women in the two provinces. Furthermore, there was an increase in TMM in all of the quinquennium and a clear decrease in the final period. At the annual level, the linear fit was significant for Madrid for the whole population and corresponds to an increase in the TMM of 0.58 °C per decade. For Seville the linear fits were significant and the slopes of the fitted lines was 1.1 °C/decade. Both Madrid and Seville are adapting to the increase in temperatures observed over the past 36 years, and women are the group that is more susceptible to heat, compared to men. The implementation of improvements and evaluation of prevention plans to address the impact of heat waves should continue in order to ensure adequate adaptation in the future.

Blue space, health and well-being: A narrative overview and synthesis of potential benefits

Research into the potential health and well-being benefits from exposure to green spaces such as parks and woodlands has led to the development of several frameworks linking the different strands of evidence. The current paper builds on these to provide a model of how exposure to aquatic environments, or blue spaces such as rivers, lakes and the coast, in particular, may benefit health and well-being. Although green and blue spaces share many commonalities, there are also important differences. Given the breadth of the research, spanning multiple disciplines and research methodologies, a narrative review approach was adopted which aimed to highlight key issues and processes rather than provide a definitive balance of evidence summary. Novel aspects of our framework included the inclusion of outcomes that are only indirectly good for health through being good for the environment, the addition of nature connectedness as both a trait and state, and feedback loops where actions/interventions to increase exposure are implemented. Limitations of the review and areas for future work, including the need to integrate potential benefits with potential risks, are discussed.

Review of Biometeorology of Heatwaves and Warm Extremes in Europe

Numerous extreme heatwaves producing large impacts on human health, agriculture, water resources, energy demand, regional economies, and forest ecosystems occurred during the first twenty years of the 21st century. The present study strives to provide a systematic review of recent studies of warm biometeorological extremes in Europe. The main aim of this paper is to provide a methodical summary of the observed changes in warm extremes, duration, and variability in different parts of Europe. During the last decade, much attention has been paid to the negative impacts of heat and humidity on human health. Therefore, the human biometeorology is required to appraise the human thermal environment in a way that human thermoregulation is taken into account. In many European countries and regions, future heat exposure will indeed exceed critical levels, and a steep increase in biometeorological heatwaves and warm extremes are expected. The indices that take into account human energy balance along with weather conditions should be used to examine the impacts of extreme heatwaves on human health and should be used as a basis for the determination of acclimatization to high-heat-stress conditions. A detailed description of recent studies that have used biometeorological indices such as Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) for the estimation of warm extremes and their influence on human health is provided. Additionally, a short overview of the existence of the heat-health warning systems (HHWS), their conceptualization, and implementation across the European continent is considered, as well as the possibilities for further investigations and implementation of effective measures and programs that could reduce the adverse health impacts.

Associations of Residential Greenness with Depression and Anxiety in Rural Chinese Adults

Background

Depression and anxiety are top contributors to non-fatal health loss globally. Several studies have indicated the association between residential greenness and mental health.

Method

The participants (n = 27,366) were recruited from four counties in Henan Province, China during 2015–2017. Symptoms of depression and anxiety were evaluated using the Patient Health Questionnaire-2 (PHQ-2) and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder-2 (GAD-2) in the baseline survey. The level of residential greenness during the 3-year period before the baseline survey was assessed using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). The mixed-effect linear regression model was applied to examine the associations of residential greenness with depression and anxiety.

Results

The results of adjusted models showed that the score of PHQ-2 (Δscore and 95% confidence interval [CI]) decreased by −0.024 (−0.041, −0.006) and −0.022 (−0.038, −0.004) with an interquartile range (IQR) increase in NDVI and EVI within a 1,000-m buffer radius, respectively. The score of GAD-2 (Δscore and 95% CI) decreased by −0.024 (−0.040, −0.006) and −0.028 (−0.044, −0.011), in relation to an IQR increase in NDVI and EVI within a 1,000-m buffer radius, respectively.

Conclusions

A higher level of residential greenness was significantly associated with lower risk of depression and anxiety in rural areas of Henan Province. Improving residential greenness accessibility may help to promote the mental health of rural populations.

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Mental disorders, particularly depression and anxiety, have become one of the most serious public health issues globally.

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Symptoms of depression and anxiety and level of residential greenness were investigated for 27,366 participants from the Henan Rural Cohort.

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The mixed effect linear regression model was used to examine the associations between level of residential greenness and depression and anxiety in rural areas of Henan Province, China.

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Higher residential greenness was significantly associated with lower risks of depression and anxiety.

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Stronger effects of residential greenness were observed in males and in those with higher income and education level.

The impact of heat waves on daily mortality in districts in Madrid: The effect of sociodemographic factors

Although there is significant scientific evidence on the impact of heat waves, there are few studies that analyze the effects of sociodemographic factors on the impact of heat waves below the municipal level. The objective of this study was to analyze the role of income level, percent of the population over age 65, existence of air conditioning units and hectares (Ha) of green zones in districts in Madrid, in the impact of heat on daily mortality between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2013. Seventeen districts were analyzed, and Generalized Linear (GLM) Poisson Regression Models were used to calculate relative risks (RR) and attributable risks (RA) for the impact of heat waves on mortality due to natural causes (CIEX:A00-R99). The pattern of risks obtained was analyzed using GLM univariates and multivariates of the binomial family (link logit), introducing the socioeconomic and demographic variables mentioned above. The results indicate that heat wave had an impact in only three of the districts analyzed. In the univariate models, all of the variables were statistically significant, but Ha of green zones lost significance in the multivariate model. Income level, existence of air conditioning units, and percent of the population over age 65 in the district remained as variables that modulate the impact of heat wave on daily mortality in the municipality of Madrid. Income level was the key variable that explained this behavior. The results obtained in this study show that there are factors at levels below the municipal level (district level) that should be considered as focus areas for health policy in order to decrease the impact of heat and promote the process of adaptation to heat in the context of climate change.

Socioeconomic level and associations between heat exposure and all-cause and cause-specific hospitalization in 1,814 Brazilian cities: A nationwide case-crossover study

BACKGROUND

Heat exposure, which will increase with global warming, has been linked to increased risk of a range of types of cause-specific hospitalizations. However, little is known about socioeconomic disparities in vulnerability to heat. We aimed to evaluate whether there were socioeconomic disparities in vulnerability to heat-related all-cause and cause-specific hospitalization among Brazilian cities.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We collected daily hospitalization and weather data in the hot season (city-specific 4 adjacent hottest months each year) during 2000-2015 from 1,814 Brazilian cities covering 78.4% of the Brazilian population. A time-stratified case-crossover design modeled by quasi-Poisson regression and a distributed lag model was used to estimate city-specific heat-hospitalization association. Then meta-analysis was used to synthesize city-specific estimates according to different socioeconomic quartiles or levels. We included 49 million hospitalizations (58.5% female; median [interquartile range] age: 33.3 [19.8-55.7] years). For cities of lower middle income (LMI), upper middle income (UMI), and high income (HI) according to the World Bank's classification, every 5°C increase in daily mean temperature during the hot season was associated with a 5.1% (95% CI 4.4%-5.7%, P < 0.001), 3.7% (3.3%-4.0%, P < 0.001), and 2.6% (1.7%-3.4%, P < 0.001) increase in all-cause hospitalization, respectively. The inter-city socioeconomic disparities in the association were strongest for children and adolescents (0-19 years) (increased all-cause hospitalization risk with every 5°C increase [95% CI]: 9.9% [8.7%-11.1%], P < 0.001, in LMI cities versus 5.2% [4.1%-6.3%], P < 0.001, in HI cities). The disparities were particularly evident for hospitalization due to certain diseases, including ischemic heart disease (increase in cause-specific hospitalization risk with every 5°C increase [95% CI]: 5.6% [-0.2% to 11.8%], P = 0.060, in LMI cities versus 0.5% [-2.1% to 3.1%], P = 0.717, in HI cities), asthma (3.7% [0.3%-7.1%], P = 0.031, versus -6.4% [-12.1% to -0.3%], P = 0.041), pneumonia (8.0% [5.6%-10.4%], P < 0.001, versus 3.8% [1.1%-6.5%], P = 0.005), renal diseases (9.6% [6.2%-13.1%], P < 0.001, versus 4.9% [1.8%-8.0%], P = 0.002), mental health conditions (17.2% [8.4%-26.8%], P < 0.001, versus 5.5% [-1.4% to 13.0%], P = 0.121), and neoplasms (3.1% [0.7%-5.5%], P = 0.011, versus -0.1% [-2.1% to 2.0%], P = 0.939). The disparities were similar when stratifying the cities by other socioeconomic indicators (urbanization rate, literacy rate, and household income). The main limitations were lack of data on personal exposure to temperature, and that our city-level analysis did not assess intra-city or individual-level socioeconomic disparities and could not exclude confounding effects of some unmeasured variables.

CONCLUSIONS

Less developed cities displayed stronger associations between heat exposure and all-cause hospitalizations and certain types of cause-specific hospitalizations in Brazil. This may exacerbate the existing geographical health and socioeconomic inequalities under a changing climate.

Intraurban social risk and mortality patterns during extreme heat events: A case study of Moscow, 2010-2017

There is currently an increase in the number of heat waves occurring worldwide. Moscow experienced the effects of an extreme heat wave in 2010, which resulted in more than 10,000 extra deaths and significant economic damage. This study conducted a comprehensive assessment of the social risks existing during the occurrence of heat waves and allowed us to identify the spatial heterogeneity of the city in terms of thermal risk and the consequences for public health. Using a detailed simulation of the meteorological regime based on the COSMO-CLM regional climate model and the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET), a spatial assessment of thermal stress in the summer of 2010 was carried out. Based on statistical data, the components of social risk (vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity of the population) were calculated and mapped. We also performed an analysis of their changes in 2010-2017. A significant differentiation of the territory of Moscow has been revealed in terms of the thermal stress and vulnerability of the population to heat waves. The spatial pattern of thermal stress agrees quite well with the excess deaths observed during the period from July to August 2010. The identified negative trend of increasing vulnerability of the population has grown in most districts of Moscow. The adaptive capacity has been reduced in most of Moscow. The growth of adaptive capacity mainly affects the most prosperous areas of the city.

The Impact of Regeneration and Climate Adaptations of Urban Green-Blue Assets on All-Cause Mortality: A 17-Year Longitudinal Study

Urban waterways are underutilised assets, which can provide benefits ranging from climate-change mitigation and adaptation (e.g., reducing flood risks) to promoting health and well-being in urban settings. Indeed, urban waterways provide green and blue spaces, which have increasingly been associated with health benefits. The present observational study used a unique 17-year longitudinal natural experiment of canal regeneration from complete closure and dereliction in North Glasgow in Scotland, U.K. to explore the impact of green and blue canal assets on all-cause mortality as a widely used indicator of general health and health inequalities. Official data on deaths and socioeconomic deprivation for small areas (data zones) for the period 2001–2017 were analysed. Distances between data zone population-weighted centroids to the canal were calculated to create three 500 m distance buffers. Spatiotemporal associations between proximity to the canal and mortality were estimated using linear mixed models, unadjusted and adjusted for small-area measures of deprivation. The results showed an overall decrease in mortality over time (β = −0.032, 95% confidence interval (CI) [−0.046, −0.017]) with a closing of the gap in mortality between less and more affluent areas. The annual rate of decrease in mortality rates was largest in the 0–500 m buffer zone closest to the canal (−3.12%, 95% CI [−4.50, −1.73]), with smaller decreases found in buffer zones further removed from the canal (500–1000 m: −3.01%, 95% CI [−6.52, 0.62]), and 1000–1500 m: −1.23%, 95% CI [−5.01, 2.71]). A similar pattern of results was found following adjustment for deprivation. The findings support the notion that regeneration of disused blue and green assets and climate adaptions can have a positive impact on health and health inequalities. Future studies are now needed using larger samples of individual-level data, including environmental, socioeconomic, and health variables to ascertain which specific elements of regeneration are the most effective in promoting health and health equity.

Geospatial context of social and environmental factors associated with health risk during temperature extremes: Review and discussion

This study reviews forty-six publications between 2008 and 2017 dealing with socio-environmental impacts on adverse health effects of temperature extremes, in a geospatial context. The review showed that most studies focus on extremely hot weather but lack analysis of how spatial heterogeneity across a region can influence cold mortality/morbidity. There are limitations regarding the use of temperature datasets for spatial analyses. Only a few studies have applied air temperature datasets with high spatial resolution to health studies, but none of these studies have used anthropogenic heat as a factor for analysis of health risk. In addition, the elderly is generally recognized as a vulnerable group in most studies, but the interaction between old age and temperature risk varies by location. Other socio-demographic factors such as low income, low education and accessibility to community shelters may also need to be considered in the future. There are only a few studies which investigate the interaction between temperature and air pollution in a geospatial context, despite the fact that this is a known interaction that can influence health risk under extreme weather. In conclusions, although investigation of temperature effects on health risk is already at the "mature stage", studies of socio-environmental influences on human health under extreme weather in a geospatial context is still being investigated. A comprehensive assessment is required to analyse how the spatial aspects of the geophysical and social environments can influence human health under extreme weather, in order to develop a better community plan and health protocols for disaster preparedness.

The neighborhood effect of exposure to blue space on elderly individuals' mental health: A case study in Guangzhou, China

Within the urban setting, blue space refers to all visible surface waters, including lakes, rivers, and coastal waters. Exposure to the natural environment, especially blue space, has been consistently linked to better mental health. While previous studies have disentangled the positive relationship between neighborhood blue space and mental health, scant attention has been paid to pathways through which neighborhood blue space affects mental health among Chinese urban elderly individuals. Based on questionnaire data collected from Guangzhou in 2018, remote sensing images, street-scapes, and other such sources, we extracted various blue space indicators. We employed multilevel linear regression modeling, mediating effect modeling to examine bio-psychosocial pathways and mechanisms linking exposure to blue space and elderly individuals' mental health. Propensity score matching method was employed to deal with selection bias. According to this empirical analysis, firstly, neighborhood exposure to blue space was significantly associated with elderly individuals' mental health. Secondly, environmental harm reduction, stress reduction, and social contact facilitation played a separate role in mediating the effect of blue space exposure on elderly individuals' mental health. These findings confirm the mediation pathways in the context of Chinese cities. Our research enriches the empirical research on blue space and public health from the perspective of health geography, and suggests the need for "healthy neighborhood" and "health aging" planning in Chinese settings.

Temporal changes in years of life lost associated with heat waves in the Czech Republic

Seniors constitute the population group generally most at risk of mortality due to heat stress. As life expectancy increases and health conditions of elderly people improve over time, vulnerability of the population to heat changes as well. We employed the years-of-life-lost (YLL) approach, considering life expectancy at the time of each death, to investigate how population ageing affects temporal changes in heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic. Using an updated gridded meteorological database, we identified heat waves during 1994-2017, and analysed temporal changes in their impacts on YLL and mortality. The mean impact of a heat-wave day on relative excess mortality and YLL had declined by approximately 2-3% per decade. That decline abated in the current decade, however, and the decreasing trend in mean excess mortality as well as YLL vanished when the short-term mortality displacement effect was considered. Moreover, the cumulative number of excess deaths and YLL during heat waves rose due to increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves during the examined period. The results show that in studies of temporal changes it is important to differentiate between mean effects of heat waves on mortality and the overall death burden associated with heat waves. Analysis of the average ratio of excess YLL/death per heat-wave day indicated that the major heat-vulnerable population group shifted towards older age (70+ years among males and 75+ years among females). Our findings highlight the importance of focusing heat-protection measures especially upon the elderly population, which is most heat-vulnerable and whose numbers are rising.

Assessing Equity in the Accessibility to Urban Green Spaces According to Different Functional Levels

Accessibility of urban residents to different services and amenities is a growing concern for policy makers. Urban green spaces (UGS) provide services and benefits that are particularly important for people having less mobility, such as children, the elderly or the poor. Practical experience has led to the classification of UGS in hierarchic systems reflecting the type and degree of benefits and services or functions they provide to users, which vary, primarily with their size. It is therefore necessary to ensure equity in the spatial distribution of different classes of UGS in the urban areas. In this work, we explore a methodology based in geographical information systems (GIS) to assess equity of access by different population groups to UGS according to its functional levels in the City of Barcelona, Spain, using a spatial clustering method. Results did not support the existence of overall inequalities in the access to UGS by the different groups of the population. However, indicators of spatial association revealed insufficiencies concerning accessibility to nearby UGS by seniors, children and the less wealthy in some parts of the city. This methodology may be used to inform urban planners dealing with the provision of UGS in an equitable manner to different socioeconomic groups of the resident population.

Individual- and community-level shifts in mortality patterns during the January 2016 East Asia cold wave associated with a super El Niño event: Empirical evidence in Hong Kong

Despite the fact that cold weather has been widely documented as a major factor that can elevate the mortality in a subtropical population due to a lack of adaptability, the disastrous impacts from a major cold event in East Asia caused by a super El Niño event in January 2016 have passed largely unreported. In order to minimize the catastrophic risk from such events given ongoing concerns about climate change, as also noted in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR), it is important to evaluate the individual- and community-level shifts in mortality patterns during such cold waves, in order to develop health protocols for surveillance and disaster planning. This study evaluated the impacts of the 2016 cold wave on mortality patterns in Hong Kong because this city has been highlighted as a city with severe negative impacts from the disaster by social media. Based on a sensitivity analysis, we found significantly higher daily mortality for up to ten weeks during this cold wave compared to the same calendar days between 2007 and 2015. We also found that the short-term impact of the cold wave was prolonged and fatal, with the potential to increase the mortality across the city for up to five weeks compared to the pre-disaster period. An examination of the individual- and community-level shifts in mortality patterns reveals that the unmarried and economically inactive were most vulnerable during the 2016 cold wave, and respiratory diseases were the greatest medical problems, while age and gender effects as well as cardiovascular diseases did not enhance the fatal effect. The excessive mortality was citywide, and not limited to particular locations or specific characteristics of a community within the city. Based on the results, disaster education as well as social and health services should be provided to all local people for an extended period in order to minimize the fatal and prolonged effects of future cold waves.

Impacts of climate change on the public health of the Mediterranean Basin population - Current situation, projections, preparedness and adaptation

The Mediterranean Basin is undergoing a warming trend with longer and warmer summers, an increase in the frequency and the severity of heat waves, changes in precipitation patterns and a reduction in rainfall amounts. In this unique populated region, which is characterized by significant gaps in the socio-economic levels particularly between the North (Europe) and South (Africa), parallel with population growth and migration, increased water demand and forest fires risk - the vulnerability of the Mediterranean population to human health risks increases significantly. Indeed, climatic changes impact the health of the Mediterranean population directly through extreme heat, drought or storms, or indirectly by changes in water availability, food provision and quality, air pollution and other stressors. The main health effects are related to extreme weather events (including extreme temperatures and floods), changes in the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases and changes in environmental and social conditions. The poorer countries, particularly in North Africa and the Levant, are at highest risk. Climate change affects the vulnerable sectors of the region, including an increasingly older population, with a larger percentage of those with chronic diseases, as well as poor people, which are therefore more susceptible to the effects of extreme temperatures. For those populations, a better surveillance and control systems are especially needed. In view of the climatic projections and the vulnerability of Mediterranean countries, climate change mitigation and adaptation become ever more imperative. It is important that prevention Health Action Plans will be implemented, particularly in those countries that currently have no prevention plans. Most adaptation measures are "win-win situation" from a health perspective, including reducing air pollution or providing shading solutions. Additionally, Mediterranean countries need to enhance cross-border collaboration, as adaptation to many of the health risks requires collaboration across borders and also across the different parts of the basin.

Residential exposure to natural outdoor environments and general health among older adults in Shanghai, China

Background

Exposure to natural outdoor environments (NOE) has been shown to be beneficial to older adults’ health and functioning, yet this assertion has rarely been tested in China. We investigated the relationships between exposure to NOE and older adults’ self-rated health in Shanghai, China and examined whether these relationships varied by sex, age, education and hukou status.

Method

This cross-sectional study used micro-data sample of the 2010 Shanghai population census, including 7962 older adults nested within 3345 neighbourhoods. Self-rated health was the outcome variable. Four NOE exposure indicators were calculated for each neighbourhood: the amount of surrounding greenness/blueness and proximity to large green/blue spaces. Multilevel logistic regression was employed to explore the association between natural outdoor environment exposure and self-rated health, adjusting for individual-level and neighbourhood-level covariates. Stratified analyses were used to examine variations by sex, age, education and hukou status.

Results

Older adults living in neighbourhoods with higher surrounding greenness and higher proximity to both green spaces and blue spaces were more likely to report good health. Residential surrounding blueness was not significantly related to self-rated health. Females, those aged 60–69 years, those who had elementary school or junior high school education and those with non-local hukou benefit more from residential surrounding greenness, and those aged 70–79 years and who had elementary school or junior high school education benefit more from residential proximity to blue spaces.

Conclusions

Higher residential greenness and proximity to both green spaces and blue spaces were associated with better self-rated health, particularly for females, younger older adults, the low educated and non-local hukou holders. Our findings suggest that urban green spaces and urban blue spaces have different effects on health among Chinese older adults and that the assessment of exposure matters to the investigation of NOE-health relationships.

Heatwaves, hospitalizations for Alzheimer's disease, and postdischarge deaths: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Available data on the effects of heatwaves on hospitalizations and postdischarge status of Alzheimer's disease patients are very scarce.

METHODS

We used data from a retrospective cohort study which included Alzheimer's disease patients who were hospitalized from 1st January 2005 to 31st December 2013 in Brisbane, Australia, and died within two months after they were discharged. A time-stratified case-crossover design using conditional logistic regression was employed to quantify the effects of heatwaves on hospitalizations and postdischarge deaths due to Alzheimer's disease. A case-only design was used to assess the modification effects of age, sex, and community-level vegetation and Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) on heatwave effects.

RESULTS

There were 907 hospitalizations in the study period, and 307 patients died within two months after discharge. Hospitalizations and postdischarge deaths due to Alzheimer's disease increased by 51% (95% confidence interval (CI): 2%, 126%) and 269% (95% CI: 76%, 665%), respectively, during middle-intensity heatwaves (i.e., 95th percentile & ≥2 days). The magnitude of heatwave effect on postdischarge deaths increased dramatically when heatwave intensity increased from 95th percentile to 97th percentile. People who lived in communities with low-level vegetation were more vulnerable to heatwave effect on hospitalizations for Alzheimer's disease than those who lived in communities with high-level vegetation (relative risk: 3.05, 95% CI: 1.16, 7.98).

CONCLUSION

Heatwaves increased the risk of hospitalizations for those living with Alzheimer's disease, and increased the risk of postdischarge deaths of Alzheimer's disease patients. Increasing urban greenness may ease heat-related Alzheimer's disease burden.

Green spaces and mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Green spaces have been proposed to be a health determinant, improving health and wellbeing through different mechanisms. We aimed to systematically review the epidemiological evidence from longitudinal studies that have investigated green spaces and their association with all-cause mortality. We aimed to evaluate this evidence with a meta-analysis, to determine exposure-response functions for future quantitative health impact assessments.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies on green spaces and all-cause mortality. We searched for studies published and indexed in MEDLINE before Aug 20, 2019, which we complemented with an additional search of cited literature. We included studies if their design was longitudinal; the exposure of interest was measured green space; the endpoint of interest was all-cause mortality; they provided a risk estimate (ie, a hazard ratio [HR]) and the corresponding 95% CI for the association between green space exposure and all-cause mortality; and they used normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) as their green space exposure definition. Two investigators (DR-R and DP-L) independently screened the full-text articles for inclusion. We used a random-effects model to obtain pooled HRs. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42018090315.

FINDINGS

We identified 9298 studies in MEDLINE and 13 studies that were reported in the literature but not indexed in MEDLINE, of which 9234 (99%) studies were excluded after screening the titles and abstracts and 68 (88%) of 77 remaining studies were excluded after assessment of the full texts. We included nine (12%) studies in our quantitative evaluation, which comprised 8 324 652 individuals from seven countries. Seven (78%) of the nine studies found a significant inverse relationship between an increase in surrounding greenness per 0·1 NDVI in a buffer zone of 500 m or less and the risk of all-cause mortality, but two studies found no association. The pooled HR for all-cause mortality per increment of 0·1 NDVI within a buffer of 500 m or less of a participant's residence was 0·96 (95% CI 0·94-0·97; I², 95%).

INTERPRETATION

We found evidence of an inverse association between surrounding greenness and all-cause mortality. Interventions to increase and manage green spaces should therefore be considered as a strategic public health intervention.

FUNDING

World Health Organization.

Neighbourhood blue space, health and wellbeing: The mediating role of different types of physical activity

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests that living near blue spaces such as the coast, lakes and rivers may be good for health and wellbeing. Although greater levels of physical activity (PA) may be a potential mechanism, we know little about the types of PA that might account for this.

OBJECTIVES

To explore the mediating role of: a) 'watersports' (e.g. sailing/canoeing); b) 'on-land outdoor PA' in natural/mixed settings (e.g. walking/running/cycling); and, c) 'indoor/other PA' (e.g. gym/squash) in the relationships between residential blue space availability and health outcomes.

METHODS

Using data from the Health Survey for England (n = 21,097), we constructed a path model to explore whether weekly volumes of each PA type mediate any of the relationships between residential blue space availability (coastal proximity and presence of freshwater) and self-reported general and mental health, controlling for green space density and a range of socio-economic factors at the individual- and area-level.

RESULTS

Supporting predictions, living nearer the coast was associated with better self-reported general and mental health and this was partially mediated by on-land outdoor PA (primarily walking). Watersports were more common among those living within 5kms of the coast, but did not mediate associations between coastal proximity and health. Presence of freshwater in the neighbourhood was associated with better mental health, but this effect was not mediated by PA.

CONCLUSIONS

Although nearby blue spaces offer potentially easier access to watersports, relatively few individuals in England engage in them and thus they do not account for positive population health associations. Rather, the benefits to health from coastal living seem, at least in part, due to participation in land-based outdoor activities (especially walking). Further research is needed to explore the mechanisms behind the relationship between freshwater presence and mental health.

Association of Extreme Heat Events With Hospital Admission or Mortality Among Patients With End-Stage Renal Disease

Importance

Extreme heat events (EHEs) are increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity, and this trend is projected to continue as part of ongoing climate change. There is a paucity of data regarding how EHEs may affect highly vulnerable populations, such as patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Such data are needed to inform ESRD patient management guidelines in a changing climate.

Objectives

To investigate the association between EHEs and the risk of hospital admission or mortality among patients with ESRD and further characterize how this risk may vary among races/ethnicities or patients with preexisting comorbidities.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This study used hospital admission and mortality records of patients with ESRD who underwent hemodialysis treatment at Fresenius Kidney Care clinics in Boston, Massachusetts; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; or New York, New York, from January 1, 2001, to December 31, 2012. Data were analyzed using a time-stratified case-crossover design with conditional Poisson regression to investigate associations between EHEs and risk of hospital admission or mortality among patients with ESRD. Data were analyzed from July 1, 2017, to March 31, 2019.

Exposures

Calendar day- and location-specific 95th-percentile maximum temperature thresholds were calculated using daily meteorological data from 1960 to 1989. These thresholds were used to identify EHEs in each of the 3 cities during the study.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Daily all-cause hospital admission and all-cause mortality among patients with ESRD.

Results

The study included 7445 patients with ESRD (mean [SD] age, 61.1 [14.1] years; 4283 [57.5%] men), among whom 2953 deaths (39.7%) and 44 941 hospital admissions (mean [SD], 6.0 [7.5] per patient) were recorded. Extreme heat events were associated with increased risk of same-day hospital admission (rate ratio [RR], 1.27; 95% CI, 1.13-1.43) and same-day mortality (RR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.01-1.70) among patients with ESRD. There was some heterogeneity in risk, with patients in Boston showing statistically significant increased risk for hospital admission (RR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.00-1.31) and mortality (RR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.04-2.02) associated with cumulative exposure to EHEs, while such risk was absent among patients with ESRD in Philadelphia. While increases in risks were similar among non-Hispanic black and non-Hispanic white patients, findings among Hispanic and Asian patients were less clear. After stratifying by preexisting comorbidities, cumulative lag exposure to EHEs was associated with increased risk of mortality among patients with ESRD living with congestive heart failure (RR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.27-1.89), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (RR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.24-2.06), or diabetes (RR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.51-2.21).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, extreme heat events were associated with increased risk of hospital admission or mortality among patients with ESRD, and the association was potentially affected by geographic region and race/ethnicity. Future studies with larger populations and broader geographic coverage are needed to better characterize this variability in risk and inform ESRD management guidelines and differential risk variables, given the projected increases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of EHEs.

Heatwaves and diabetes in Brisbane, Australia: a population-based retrospective cohort study

Background

Available data on the effects of heatwaves on hospitalizations for diabetes and the post-discharge status of diabetics are scarce. This study aimed to assess the effects of heatwaves on hospitalizations and post-discharge deaths for diabetes, and to identify the individual- and community-level characteristics [i.e. age, gender, Socio-economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)] that modified heatwave effects.

Methods

Health data were extracted from a cohort study which included patients in Brisbane, Australia, who were hospitalized due to diabetes from 1st January 2005 to 31st December 2013, and died within 2 months after they were discharged. Data on community-level modifiers, including SEIFA and NDVI (i.e. urban vegetation), were obtained from Australian Bureau of Statistics and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Case-crossover design was used to quantify the effects of heatwaves on hospitalizations and post-discharge deaths due to diabetes. Four heatwave definitions incorporating both intensity (i.e. 90th, 95th, 97th and 99th percentiles of mean temperature distribution) and duration (2 days), as well as excess heat factor (EHF), were used. A case-only design was adopted to identify the modifiers of heatwave effects.

Results

There were 10 542 hospitalizations for diabetes, and 513 patients died due to diabetes within 2 months after discharge. During low-intensity heatwave days (i.e. 90th percentile & 2 days), we did not observe a significant increase in hospitalizations for diabetes [9% at lag 0; 95% confidence interval (CI): –3%, 23%; P = 0.146], but we observed a significant increase in post-discharge deaths (46% at lag 2; 95% CI: 3%, 107%; P = 0.036). During middle-intensity heatwave days (i.e. 95th percentile & 2 days), hospitalizations for diabetes increased by 19% at lag 0 (95% CI: 2%, 39%; P = 0.026), and post-discharge deaths increased by 64% at lag 0 (95% CI: 6%, 154%; P = 0.027). During high-intensity heatwave days (i.e. 97th percentile & 2 days), hospitalizations for diabetes increased by 37% at lag 1 (95% CI: 11%, 69%; P = 0.004) and post-discharge deaths increased by 137% at lag 1 (95% CI: 39%, 303%; P = 0.002). When heatwave intensity increased to 99th percentile, we did not observe a significant increase in hospitalizations (–1% at lag 0; 95% CI: –38%, 59%; P = 0.870) or post-discharge deaths (79% at lag 0; 95% CI: –39%, 431%; P = 0.301). When we used EHF to define heatwaves, we observed significant increases of hospitalizations (7%; 95% CI: 1%, 15%; P = 0.039) and post-discharge deaths (68%, 95% CI: 10%, 158%; P = 0.017) during heatwave days, compared with non-heatwave days. Children and male diabetics were particularly vulnerable to heatwave effects, but we did not find any significant modification effect of SEIFA or NDVI on the associations of heatwaves with hospitalizations and post-discharge deaths due to diabetes.

Conclusion

Heatwaves may lead to hospitalizations of diabetics and their premature deaths. Heat-related diabetes burden in children may increase as climate warms and with increasing obesity rates in adolescents.

Differences in the impact of heat waves according to urban and peri-urban factors in Madrid

Aside from climatic factors, the impact of heat waves on mortality depends on the demographic and socio-economic structure of the population as well as variables relating to local housing. Hence, this study's main aim was to ascertain whether there might be a differential impact of heat waves on daily mortality by area of residence. The study is a time-series analysis (2000-2009) of daily mortality and minimum and maximum daily temperatures (°C) in five geographical areas of the Madrid region. The impact of such waves on heat-related mortality due to natural causes (ICD-10: A00- R99), circulatory causes (ICD-10: I00-I99) and respiratory causes (ICD-10: J00-J99) was obtained by calculating the relative risk (RR) and attributable risk (AR), using GLM models with the Poisson link and controlling for trend, seasonalities and the autoregressive nature of the series. Furthermore, we also evaluated other external variables, such as the percentage of the population aged over 65 years and the percentage of old housing. No heat-related mortality threshold temperature with statistical significance was detected in the northern and eastern areas. While the threshold temperatures in the central and southern areas were very similar and close to the 90th percentile, the threshold in the western area corresponded to the 97th percentile. Attributable mortality proved to be highest in the central area with 85 heat wave-related deaths per annum. External factors found to influence the impact of heat on mortality in Madrid were the size of the population aged over 65 years and the age of residential housing. Demographic structure and the percentage of old housing play a key role in modulating the impact of heat waves. This study concludes that the areas in which heat acts earliest are those having a higher degree of population ageing.

[Effect of City-Specific Characteristics on Association between Heat and Ambulance Dispatches]

OBJECTIVES

In this multicity study, we aimed to elucidate the city-specific factors affecting the association of high ambient temperature with ambulance dispatches due to acute illnesses.

METHODS

We used the data of ambulance dispatches in 27 cities in Japan with more than 500,000 population excluding Tokyo, from May to September from 2012 to 2015. We included patients 20 years and older (≥20 years) and stratified them into three age groups (20-59, 60-79, and ≥80 years). We explored the city-specific pattern of the daily relative temperature (in temperature percentiles) and the risk of ambulance dispatches for each age group using a distributed lag nonlinear model and estimated the city-specific relative risks of ambulance dispatches at the 95/99 percentile temperature compared with the 77.6 percentile temperature defined as the reference temperature (Tref). Then, the estimates were combined by performing meta-analyses for each age group. We also applied meta-regression models to explore whether the city-specific characteristics modified the association of temperature with ambulance dispatches.

RESULTS

The relative risks of the 95th percentile with respect to Tref were 1.14 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.12, 1.16), 1.16 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.20), 1.13 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.16), and 1.13 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.16), for all-age (≥20) and age-stratified groups (20-59, 60-79, and ≥80 years), respectively. We observed a higher relative risk for the ≥20 years age group in the cities with higher proportions of single-elderly, single-mother, and single-father households. We also found that the relative risk for the 20-59 years age group was higher in the cities with a higher proportion of blue-collar workers.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study provides insights into city-specific characteristics modifying heat-related health effects.

The health benefits of the great outdoors: A systematic review and meta-analysis of greenspace exposure and health outcomes

BACKGROUND

The health benefits of greenspaces have demanded the attention of policymakers since the 1800s. Although much evidence suggests greenspace exposure is beneficial for health, there exists no systematic review and meta-analysis to synthesise and quantify the impact of greenspace on a wide range of health outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To quantify evidence of the impact of greenspace on a wide range of health outcomes.

METHODS

We searched five online databases and reference lists up to January 2017. Studies satisfying a priori eligibility criteria were evaluated independently by two authors.

RESULTS

We included 103 observational and 40 interventional studies investigating ~100 health outcomes. Meta-analysis results showed increased greenspace exposure was associated with decreased salivary cortisol -0.05 (95% CI -0.07, -0.04), heart rate -2.57 (95% CI -4.30, -0.83), diastolic blood pressure -1.97 (95% CI -3.45, -0.19), HDL cholesterol -0.03 (95% CI -0.05, <-0.01), low frequency heart rate variability (HRV) -0.06 (95% CI -0.08, -0.03) and increased high frequency HRV 91.87 (95% CI 50.92, 132.82), as well as decreased risk of preterm birth 0.87 (95% CI 0.80, 0.94), type II diabetes 0.72 (95% CI 0.61, 0.85), all-cause mortality 0.69 (95% CI 0.55, 0.87), small size for gestational age 0.81 (95% CI 0.76, 0.86), cardiovascular mortality 0.84 (95% CI 0.76, 0.93), and an increased incidence of good self-reported health 1.12 (95% CI 1.05, 1.19). Incidence of stroke, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, asthma, and coronary heart disease were reduced. For several non-pooled health outcomes, between 66.7% and 100% of studies showed health-denoting associations with increased greenspace exposure including neurological and cancer-related outcomes, and respiratory mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Greenspace exposure is associated with numerous health benefits in intervention and observational studies. These results are indicative of a beneficial influence of greenspace on a wide range of health outcomes. However several meta-analyses results are limited by poor study quality and high levels of heterogeneity. Green prescriptions involving greenspace use may have substantial benefits. Our findings should encourage practitioners and policymakers to give due regard to how they can create, maintain, and improve existing accessible greenspaces in deprived areas. Furthermore the development of strategies and interventions for the utilisation of such greenspaces by those who stand to benefit the most.

Environmental risk factors associated with low birth weight: The case study of the Haifa Bay Area in Israel

BACKGROUND

Low birth weight (LBW) is known to be associated with infant mortality and postnatal health complications. Previous studies revealed strong relationships between LBW rate and several socio-demographic factors, including ethnicity, maternal age, and family income. However, studies of association between LBW rate and environmental risk factors remain infrequent.

STUDY METHODS

We retrieved a geo-referenced data set, containing 7216 individual records of children born in 2015 in the Haifa Bay Area in Israel. Using this dataset, we analysed factors affecting LBW prevalence by applying two alternative techniques: analysis of LBW rates in small census area (SCAs) and more recently developed double kernel density (DKD) relative risk (RR) estimates.

RESULTS

In the SCA models, LBW rate was found to be associated with proximity to petrochemical industries (B=-0.26, 95%CI=-0.30, -0.22), road density (B=0.05, 95%CI=0.02, 0.08), distance to the seashore (B=0.17, 95%CI=0.14, 0.22), PM_2.5 (B=0.06, 95%CI=0.04, 0.09) and NO_x (B=0.10, 95%CI=0.06, 0.13) exposure estimates. Although similar factors emerged in the DKD models as well, in most cases, the effects of these factors in the latter models were found to be stronger: proximity to petrochemical industries (B=-0.48, 95%CI= -0.51, -0.30), road density (B=0.05, 95%CI=0.02, 0.08), distance to the seashore (B=0.24, 95%CI=0.21, 0.27), PM_2.5 (B=0.08, 95%CI=0.05, 0.10) and NO_x (B=0.20, 95%CI=0.17, 0.23) exposure estimates. In addition, elevation above the sea level was found to be statistically significant in spatial dependence models estimated for both DKD and SCA rates (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

The analysis revealed an excess LBW rate in residential areas located close to petrochemical industries and a protective effect of seashore proximity and elevation above the sea level on the LBW rate. We attribute the latter finding to the moderating effect of elevated seashore locations on outdoor temperatures during the hot summer season.

Associations between Living Near Water and Risk of Mortality among Urban Canadians

BACKGROUND

Increasing evidence suggests that residential exposures to natural environments, such as green spaces, are associated with many health benefits. Only a single study has examined the potential link between living near water and mortality.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to examine whether residential proximity to large, natural water features (e.g., lakes, rivers, coasts, "blue space") was associated with cause-specific mortality.

METHODS

Our study is based on a population-based cohort of nonimmigrant adults living in the 30 largest Canadian cities [i.e., the 2001 Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort) (CanCHEC)]. Subjects were drawn from the mandatory 2001 Statistics Canada long-form census, who were linked to the Canadian mortality database and to annual income-tax filings, through 2011. We estimated associations between living within of blue space and deaths from several common causes of death. We adjusted models for many personal and contextual covariates, as well as for exposures to residential greenness and ambient air pollution.

RESULTS

Our cohort included approximately 1.3 million subjects at baseline, 106,180 of whom died from nonaccidental causes during follow-up. We found significant, reduced risks of mortality in the range of 12-17% associated with living within of water in comparison with living farther away, among all causes of death examined, except with external/accidental causes. Protective effects were found to be higher among women and all older adults than among other subjects, and protective effects were found to be highest against deaths from stroke and respiratory-related causes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that living near blue spaces in urban areas has important benefits to health, but further work is needed to better understand the drivers of this association. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3397.

Assessing heat-related health risk in Europe via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)

In this work, the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as a heat-related health risk indicator in Europe is demonstrated. The UTCI is a bioclimate index that uses a multi-node human heat balance model to represent the heat stress induced by meteorological conditions to the human body. Using 38 years of meteorological reanalysis data, UTCI maps were computed to assess the thermal bioclimate of Europe for the summer season. Patterns of heat stress conditions and non-thermal stress regions are identified across Europe. An increase in heat stress up to 1 °C is observed during recent decades. Correlation with mortality data from 17 European countries revealed that the relationship between the UTCI and death counts depends on the bioclimate of the country, and death counts increase in conditions of moderate and strong stress, i.e., when UTCI is above 26 and 32 °C. The UTCI's ability to represent mortality patterns is demonstrated for the 2003 European heatwave. These findings confirm the importance of UTCI as a bioclimatic index that is able to both capture the thermal bioclimatic variability of Europe, and relate such variability with the effects it has on human health.

The Urban Heat Island: Implications for Health in a Changing Environment

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is a well-studied phenomenon, whereby urban areas are generally warmer than surrounding suburban and rural areas. The most direct effect on health from the UHI is due to heat risk, which is exacerbated in urban areas, particularly during heat waves. However, there may be health benefits from warming during colder months. This review highlights recent attempts to quantitatively estimate the health impacts of the UHI and estimations of the health benefits of UHI mitigation measures.

RECENT FINDINGS

Climate change, increasing urbanisation and an ageing population in much of the world, is likely to increase the risks to health from the UHI, particularly from heat exposure. Studies have shown increased health risks in urban populations compared with rural or suburban populations in hot weather and a disproportionate impact on more vulnerable social groups. Estimations of the impacts of various mitigation techniques suggest that a range of measures could reduce health impacts from heat and bring other benefits to health and wellbeing. The impact of the UHI on heat-related health is significant, although often overlooked, particularly when considering future impacts associated with climate change. Multiple factors should be considered when designing mitigation measures in urban environments in order to maximise health benefits and avoid unintended negative effects.

Long-term exposure to residential green and blue spaces and anxiety and depression in adults: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Although exposure to natural outdoor environments has been consistently associated with improved perceived general health, available evidence on a protective association between this exposure and specific mental health disorders such as depression and anxiety is still limited.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of long-term exposure to residential green and blue spaces on anxiety and depression and intake of related medication. Additionally, we aimed to explore potential mediators and effect modifiers of this association.

METHODS

The study was based on an existing adult cohort (ALFA - Alzheimer and Families) and includes 958 adult participants from Barcelona recruited in 2013-2014. For each participant residential green and blue exposure indicators [surrounding greenness (NDVI), amount of green (land-cover) and access to major green spaces and blue spaces] were generated for different buffers (100m, 300m and 500m). Participants reported their history of doctor-diagnosed anxiety and depressive disorders and intake of related medication. Logistic regression models were applied to assess the corresponding associations.

RESULTS

Increasing surrounding greenness was associated with reduced odds of self-reported history of benzodiazepines [e.g. Odds ratio - OR (95%CI) = 0.62 (0.43, 0.89) for 1-interquartile range (IQR) increase in NDVI in a 300m buffer] and access to major green spaces was associated with self-reported history of depression [OR (95%CI) = 0.18 (0.06, 0.58)]. No statistically significant associations were observed with blue spaces. Air pollution (between 0.8% and 29.6%) and noise (between 2.2% and 5.3%) mediated a proportion of the associations observed, whereas physical activity and social support played a minor role.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest a potential protective role of green spaces on mental health (depression and anxiety) in adults, but further studies, especially longitudinal studies, are needed to provide further evidence of these benefits and of the mediation role of exposures like air pollution and noise.

A Review of Epidemiologic Studies on Greenness and Health: Updated Literature Through 2017

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Many studies suggest that exposure to natural vegetation, or greenness, may be beneficial for a variety of health outcomes. We summarize the recent research in this area.

RECENT FINDINGS

We observed consistent and strong evidence of associations for higher greenness with improvements in birth weights and physical activity, as well as lower mortality rates. Recent studies also suggested that exposure to greenness may lower levels of depression and depressive symptoms. The evidence on greenness and cardiovascular health remains mixed. Findings are also inconsistent for greenness measures and asthma and allergies. Our knowledge of the impacts of greenness on a wide variety of health outcomes continues to evolve. Future research should incorporate information on specific species and some qualities of natural greenness that might drive health outcomes, integrate exposure assessments that incorporate personal mobility into analyses, and include prospective designs to add to the growing evidence that nature exposure positively affects health.

A Review of Epidemiologic Studies on Greenness and Health: Updated Literature Through 2017

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Many studies suggest that exposure to natural vegetation, or greenness, may be beneficial for a variety of health outcomes. We summarize the recent research in this area.

RECENT FINDINGS

We observed consistent and strong evidence of associations for higher greenness with improvements in birth weights and physical activity, as well as lower mortality rates. Recent studies also suggested that exposure to greenness may lower levels of depression and depressive symptoms. The evidence on greenness and cardiovascular health remains mixed. Findings are also inconsistent for greenness measures and asthma and allergies. Our knowledge of the impacts of greenness on a wide variety of health outcomes continues to evolve. Future research should incorporate information on specific species and some qualities of natural greenness that might drive health outcomes, integrate exposure assessments that incorporate personal mobility into analyses, and include prospective designs to add to the growing evidence that nature exposure positively affects health.

Heat stress mortality and desired adaptation responses of healthcare system in Poland

Heat stress is one of the environmental factors influencing the health of individuals and the wider population. There is a large body of research to document significant increases in mortality and morbidity during heat waves all over the world. This paper presents key results of research dealing with heat-related mortality (HRM) in various cities in Poland which cover about 25% of the country's population. Daily mortality and weather data reports for the years 1991-2000 were used. The intensity of heat stress was assessed by the universal thermal climate index (UTCI). The research considers also the projections of future bioclimate to the end of twenty-first century. Brain storming discussions were applied to find necessary adaptation strategies of healthcare system (HCS) in Poland, to minimise negative effects of heat stress. In general, in days with strong and very strong heat stress, ones must expect increase in mortality (in relation to no thermal stress days) of 12 and 47%, respectively. Because of projected rise in global temperature and heat stress frequency, we must expect significant increase in HRM to the end of twenty-first century of even 165% in comparison to present days. The results of research show necessity of urgent implementation of adaptation strategies to heat in HCS.

Modification of the association between high ambient temperature and health by urban microclimate indicators: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Landscape characteristics, including vegetation and impervious surfaces, influence urban microclimates and may lead to within-city differences in the adverse health effects of high ambient temperatures.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to quantitatively summarize the epidemiologic literature that assessed microclimate indicators as effect measure modifiers (EMM) of the association between ambient temperature and mortality or morbidity.

METHODS

We systematically identified papers and abstracted relative risk estimates for hot and cool microclimate indicator strata. We calculated the ratio of the relative risks (RRR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) to assess differences in health effects across strata, and pooled the RRR estimates using random effects meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Eleven papers were retained. In the pooled analyses, people living in hotter areas within cities (based on land surface temperature or modeled estimates of air temperature) had 6% higher risk of mortality/morbidity compared to those in cooler areas (95% CI: 1.03-1.09). Those living in less vegetated areas had 5% higher risk compared to those living in more vegetated areas (95% CI: 1.00-1.11).

DISCUSSION

There is epidemiologic evidence that those living in hotter, and less vegetated areas of cities have higher risk of morbidity or mortality from higher ambient temperature. Further research with improved assessment of landscape characteristics and investigation of the joint effects of physiologic adaptation and landscape will advance the current understanding.

CONCLUSION

This review provides quantitative evidence that intra-urban differences in landscape characteristics and micro-urban heat islands contribute to within-city variability in the health effects of high ambient temperatures.

Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities

Some rare heatwaves have extreme daily mortality impacts; moderate heatwaves have lower daily impacts but occur much more frequently at present and so account for large aggregated impacts. We applied health-based models to project trends in high-mortality heatwaves, including proportion of all heatwaves expected to be high-mortality, using the definition that a high-mortality heatwave increases mortality risk by ≥20 %. We projected these trends in 82 US communities in 2061-2080 under two scenarios of climate change (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), two scenarios of population change (SSP3, SSP5), and three scenarios of community adaptation to heat (none, lagged, on-pace) for large- and medium-ensemble versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model. More high-mortality heatwaves were expected compared to present under all scenarios except on-pace adaptation, and population exposure was expected to increase under all scenarios. At least seven more high-mortality heatwaves were expected in a twenty-year period in the 82 study communities under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 when assuming no adaptation. However, high-mortality heatwaves were expected to remain <1 % of all heatwaves and heatwave exposure under all scenarios. Projections were most strongly influenced by the adaptation scenario- going from a scenario of on-pace to lagged adaptation or from lagged to no adaptation more than doubled the projected number of and exposure to high-mortality heatwaves. Based on our results, fewer high-mortality heatwaves are expected when following RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5 and under higher levels of adaptation, but high-mortality heatwaves are expected to remain a very small proportion of total heatwave exposure.

Social participation and heat-related behavior in older adults during heat waves and on other days

BACKGROUND

High indoor temperatures require behavioral adaptation, especially among vulnerable older adults. There are uncertainties as to the degree to which people adapt to these challenging conditions.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to describe the degree of adaptation of social participation and other heat-related behavior with respect to higher indoor temperatures.

METHODS

In this study 81 residents from 10 sheltered living facilities (84% women, mean age 80.9 years) were visited every 4 weeks from May to October 2015 and additionally during 2 heat waves in July and August 2015. The indoor temperature, drinking and clothing and social participation were documented. Baseline documentation of gait speed and residential area were used to create subgroups of people with high or low gait speed and with facility location in a garden city/suburb or city/city center.

RESULTS

Social participation and clothing decreased with -4.53 in the World Health Organization participation score units (95% confidence interval CI -5.32; -3.74) and -0.41 for clothing units (95% CI -0.46; -0.37) and volume of drinking increased (0.65 l/day; 95% CI 0.52; 0.77) per increase of indoor temperature by 10 °C. The negative association between indoor temperature and social life participation was stronger if functional capacity was low or if the facility was located in the city/city center. Not all older adults displayed temperature-related adaptive behavior.

CONCLUSION

For older adults the negative association between indoor temperature and social life participation was stronger in the city/city center or if their functional capacity was low. Frequent personal contact and motivation of those who are frail might be helpful to support their adaptive behavior of drinking and clothing during heat stress.

Characterizing prolonged heat effects on mortality in a sub-tropical high-density city, Hong Kong

Extreme hot weather events are likely to increase under future climate change, and it is exacerbated in urban areas due to the complex urban settings. It causes excess mortality due to prolonged exposure to such extreme heat. However, there is lack of universal definition of prolonged heat or heat wave, which leads to inadequacies of associated risk preparedness. Previous studies focused on estimating temperature-mortality relationship based on temperature thresholds for assessing heat-related health risks but only several studies investigated the association between types of prolonged heat and excess mortality. However, most studies focused on one or a few isolated heat waves, which cannot demonstrate typical scenarios that population has experienced. In addition, there are limited studies on the difference between daytime and nighttime temperature, resulting in insufficiency to conclude the effect of prolonged heat. In sub-tropical high-density cities where prolonged heat is common in summer, it is important to obtain a comprehensive understanding of prolonged heat for a complete assessment of heat-related health risks. In this study, six types of prolonged heat were examined by using a time-stratified analysis. We found that more consecutive hot nights contribute to higher mortality risk while the number of consecutive hot days does not have significant association with excess mortality. For a day after five consecutive hot nights, there were 7.99% [7.64%, 8.35%], 7.74% [6.93%, 8.55%], and 8.14% [7.38%, 8.88%] increases in all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. Non-consecutive hot days or nights are also found to contribute to short-term mortality risk. For a 7-day-period with at least five non-consecutive hot days and nights, there was 15.61% [14.52%, 16.70%] increase in all-cause mortality at lag 0-1, but only -2.00% [-2.83%, -1.17%] at lag 2-3. Differences in the temperature-mortality relationship caused by hot days and hot nights imply the need to categorize prolonged heat for public health surveillance. Findings also contribute to potential improvement to existing heat-health warning system.

Exploring pathways linking greenspace to health: Theoretical and methodological guidance

BACKGROUND

In a rapidly urbanizing world, many people have little contact with natural environments, which may affect health and well-being. Existing reviews generally conclude that residential greenspace is beneficial to health. However, the processes generating these benefits and how they can be best promoted remain unclear.

OBJECTIVES

During an Expert Workshop held in September 2016, the evidence linking greenspace and health was reviewed from a transdisciplinary standpoint, with a particular focus on potential underlying biopsychosocial pathways and how these can be explored and organized to support policy-relevant population health research.

DISCUSSIONS

Potential pathways linking greenspace to health are here presented in three domains, which emphasize three general functions of greenspace: reducing harm (e.g. reducing exposure to air pollution, noise and heat), restoring capacities (e.g. attention restoration and physiological stress recovery) and building capacities (e.g. encouraging physical activity and facilitating social cohesion). Interrelations between among the three domains are also noted. Among several recommendations, future studies should: use greenspace and behavioural measures that are relevant to hypothesized pathways; include assessment of presence, access and use of greenspace; use longitudinal, interventional and (quasi)experimental study designs to assess causation; and include low and middle income countries given their absence in the existing literature. Cultural, climatic, geographic and other contextual factors also need further consideration.

CONCLUSIONS

While the existing evidence affirms beneficial impacts of greenspace on health, much remains to be learned about the specific pathways and functional form of such relationships, and how these may vary by context, population groups and health outcomes. This Report provides guidance for further epidemiological research with the goal of creating new evidence upon which to develop policy recommendations.

Effect Modification by Environmental Quality on the Association between Heatwaves and Mortality in Alabama, United States

Background: Previous studies have shown that heatwaves are associated with increased mortality. However, it remains unclear whether the associations between heatwaves and mortality are modified by the environmental quality. Methods: We used the United States (US) Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Quality Index (EQI) and its five domain indices (air, water, land, built, and sociodemographic) to represent the cumulative environmental quality. We applied a time-stratified case-crossover design to analyze the disparities in the association between heatwaves and non-accidental deaths (NAD) among counties with different environmental qualities, in metropolitan areas in Alabama (AL), United States. Results: We found significant associations between heatwaves and NAD and a significant effect modification of this relationship by EQI. There were higher odds ratios in counties with the worst cumulative environmental qualities compared to counties with the best cumulative environmental qualities. For example, the percent change in odds ratio (mean and (95% CI)) between heatwave days and non-heatwave days was -10.3% (-26.6, 9.6) in counties with an overall EQI of 1 (the best overall environment) and 13.2% (4.9, 22.2) in counties with an overall EQI of 3 (the worst overall environment). Among the five domains, air quality had the strongest effect modification on the association. Conclusion: Our findings provide evidence that the associations between heatwaves and NAD vary among areas with different environmental qualities. These findings suggest that integration of air quality and heatwave warning systems may provide greater protection to public health.

Supporting sustainability initiatives through biometeorology education and training

The International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) has covered significant breadth and depth addressing fundamental and applied societal and environmental challenges in the last 60 years. Biometeorology is an interdisciplinary science connecting living organisms to their environment, but there is very little understanding of the existence and placement of this discipline within formal educational systems and institutions. It is thus difficult to project the ability of members of the biometeorological community-especially the biometeorologists of the future-to help solve global challenges. In this paper, we ask: At present, how we are training people to understand and think about biometeorology? We also ask: What are the current tools and opportunities in which biometeorologists might address future challenges? Finally, we connect these two questions by asking: What type of new training and skill development is needed to better educate "biometeorologists of the future" to more effectively address the future challenges? To answer these questions, we provide quantitative and qualitative evidence from an educationally focused workshop attended by new professionals in biometeorology. We identify four common themes (thermal comfort and exposures, agricultural productivity, air quality, and urbanization) that biometeorologists are currently studying and that we expect to be important in the future based on their alignment with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Review of recent literature within each of these thematic areas highlights a wide array of skill sets and perspectives that biometeorologists are already using. Current and new professionals within the ISB have noted highly varying and largely improvised educational pathways into the field. While variability and improvisation may be assets in promoting flexibility, adaptation, and interdisciplinarity, the lack of formal training in biometeorology raises concerns about the extent to which continuing generations of scholars will identify and engage with the community of scholarship that the ISB has developed over its 60-year history.

Eco-Health linkages: assessing the role of ecosystem goods and services on human health using causal criteria analysis

OBJECTIVES

In the last decade, we saw an upsurge of studies evaluating the role of ecosystem goods and services (EGS) on human health (Eco-Health). Most of this work consists of observational research of intermediate processes and few address the full pathways from ecosystem to EGS to human health, limiting our ability to assess causality.

METHODS

We conducted a causal criteria analysis of Eco-Health literature using Eco-Evidence, a software tool that helps evaluate evidence of cause-effect relationships. We focus on the context of green spaces providing "buffering" EGS that may influence disease.

RESULTS

We found support for a causal linkage between green spaces and all of the EGS tested, and sufficient evidence linking EGS to gastro intestinal disease and heat morbidities. Inconsistencies were found when assessing the link between EGS to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Few studies directly link green spaces to health. Those that do, support a connection to cardiovascular disease, and heat morbidities, but provide inconsistent evidence regarding respiratory illness.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results help establish an agenda to shape future Eco-Health research and define priorities for managing green spaces to provide human health benefits.

Urban vegetation and heat-related mortality in Seoul, Korea

Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to heat-related health outcomes. Simultaneous trends of climate change and urbanization may increase the urban heat-related health burden. We investigated the effects of urban vegetation on heat-related mortality, and evaluated whether different levels of vegetation and individuals' characteristics affect the temperature-mortality associations within Seoul, Korea 2000-2009. We used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to assess the urban vegetation within Seoul. We applied an overdispersed Poisson generalized linear model with interaction term between temperature and indicator of NDVI group (categorized in 3 levels) to assess the effect modification of the temperature-mortality association by urban vegetation. We conducted stratified analysis to explore whether associations are affected by individual characteristics of sex and age. The association between total mortality and a 1°C increase in temperature above the 90th percentile (25.1°C) (the "heat effect") was the highest for gus with low NDVI. The heat effect was a 4.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3, 5.9%), 3.0% (95% CI 0.2, 5.9%), and 2.2% (95% CI -0.5, 5.0%) increase in mortality risk for low, medium, and high NDVI group, respectively. Estimated risks showed similar effects by sex and age. Our findings suggest a higher mortality effect of high temperature in areas with lower vegetation in Seoul, Korea.

The influence of socioeconomic, biogeophysical and built environment on old-age survival in a Southern European city

Old-age survival is a good indicator of population health and regional development. We evaluated the spatial distribution of old-age survival across Porto neighbourhoods and its relation with physical (biogeophysical and built) and socioeconomic factors (deprivation). Smoothed survival rates and odds ratio (OR) were estimated using Bayesian spatial models. There were important geographical differentials in the chances of survival after 75 years of age. Socioeconomic deprivation strongly impacted old-age survival (Men: least deprived areas OR=1.31(1.05-1.63); Women OR=1.53(1.24-1.89)), explaining over 40% of the spatial variance. Walkability and biogeophysical environment were unrelated to old-age survival and also unrelated to socioeconomic deprivation, being fairly evenly distributed through the city.

Spatial Patterns of Heat-Related Cardiovascular Mortality in the Czech Republic

The study examines spatial patterns of effects of high temperature extremes on cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic at a district level during 1994–2009. Daily baseline mortality for each district was determined using a single location-stratified generalized additive model. Mean relative deviations of mortality from the baseline were calculated on days exceeding the 90th percentile of mean daily temperature in summer, and they were correlated with selected demographic, socioeconomic, and physical-environmental variables for the districts. Groups of districts with similar characteristics were identified according to socioeconomic status and urbanization level in order to provide a more general picture than possible on the district level. We evaluated lagged patterns of excess mortality after hot spell occurrences in: (i) urban areas vs. predominantly rural areas; and (ii) regions with different overall socioeconomic level. Our findings suggest that climatic conditions, altitude, and urbanization generally affect the spatial distribution of districts with the highest excess cardiovascular mortality, while socioeconomic status did not show a significant effect in the analysis across the Czech Republic as a whole. Only within deprived populations, socioeconomic status played a relevant role as well. After taking into account lagged effects of temperature on excess mortality, we found that the effect of hot spells was significant in highly urbanized regions, while most excess deaths in rural districts may be attributed to harvesting effects.