Estimating the life course of influenza A(H3N2) antibody responses from cross-sectional data

Characterising antibody kinetics from multiple influenza infection and vaccination events in ferrets

The strength and breadth of an individual's antibody repertoire is an important predictor of their response to influenza infection or vaccination. Although progress has been made in understanding qualitatively how repeated exposures shape the antibody mediated immune response, quantitative understanding remains limited. We developed a set of mathematical models describing short-term antibody kinetics following influenza infection or vaccination and fit them to haemagglutination inhibition (HI) titres from 5 groups of ferrets which were exposed to different combinations of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV with or without adjuvant), A/H3N2 priming inoculation and post-vaccination A/H1N1 inoculation. We fit models with various immunological mechanisms that have been empirically observed but have not previously been included in mathematical models of antibody landscapes, including: titre ceiling effects, antigenic seniority and exposure-type specific cross reactivity. Based on the parameter estimates of the best supported models, we describe a number of key immunological features. We found quantifiable differences in the degree of homologous and cross-reactive antibody boosting elicited by different exposure types. Infection and adjuvanted vaccination generally resulted in strong, broadly reactive responses whereas unadjuvanted vaccination resulted in a weak, narrow response. We found that the order of exposure mattered: priming with A/H3N2 improved subsequent vaccine response, and the second dose of adjuvanted vaccination resulted in substantially greater antibody boosting than the first. Either antigenic seniority or a titre ceiling effect were included in the two best fitting models, suggesting a role for a mechanism describing diminishing antibody boosting with repeated exposures. Although there was considerable uncertainty in our estimates of antibody waning parameters, our results suggest that both short and long term waning were present and would be identifiable with a larger set of experiments. These results highlight the potential use of repeat exposure animal models in revealing short-term, strain-specific immune dynamics of influenza.

Parameter identification for a stochastic SEIRS epidemic model: case study influenza

A recent parameter identification technique, the local lagged adapted generalized method of moments, is used to identify the time-dependent disease transmission rate and time-dependent noise for the stochastic susceptible, exposed, infectious, temporarily immune, susceptible disease model (SEIRS) with vital rates. The stochasticity appears in the model due to fluctuations in the time-dependent transmission rate of the disease. All other parameter values are assumed to be fixed, known constants. The method is demonstrated with US influenza data from the 2004-2005 through 2016-2017 influenza seasons. The transmission rate and noise intensity stochastically work together to generate the yearly peaks in infections. The local lagged adapted generalized method of moments is tested for forecasting ability. Forecasts are made for the 2016-2017 influenza season and for infection data in year 2017. The forecast method qualitatively matches a single influenza season. Confidence intervals are given for possible future infectious levels.

Multiple Influenza Virus Infections in 4 Consecutive Epidemiological Seasons: A Retrospective Study in Children and Adolescents

BACKGROUND

Recent observations provide evidence for group-specific immunity toward influenza A infections and raise the question of how often we can get the flu.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 2308 cases of children and adolescents with clinically manifested influenza and a positive PCR-test during the last 4 epidemiological seasons (2014-15 through 2017-18).

RESULTS

In the 2015-16 epidemiological season, almost 12% of patients had experienced an influenza infection during the previous season; in the 2016-17 season, more than 14% had at least 1 infection during the previous 2 seasons, and in 2017-18 season, over 18% had 1 or more infections during the previous 3 seasons. The majority of these repetitive infections occurred in children between 3-8 years of age. 29 patients experienced 3 or 4 infections during these seasons, whereas 38 children had 2 influenza episodes within the same season. Epidemiological pattern of circulating viral strains changed yearly; however, we identified 5 patients with confirmed influenza B infections during the 2014-15 and 2017-18 seasons, when only subtype Yamagata was circulating in Austria.

CONCLUSIONS

Repetitive influenza infections in consecutive epidemiological seasons occurred quite frequently in children and adolescents. Observations like ours contribute to a better understanding of the immunity against influenza virus infections and could have implications for future vaccination strategies.

Age-specific differences in the dynamics of protective immunity to influenza

Influenza A viruses evolve rapidly to escape host immunity, causing reinfection. The form and duration of protection after each influenza virus infection are poorly understood. We quantify the dynamics of protective immunity by fitting individual-level mechanistic models to longitudinal serology from children and adults. We find that most protection in children but not adults correlates with antibody titers to the hemagglutinin surface protein. Protection against circulating strains wanes to half of peak levels 3.5–7 years after infection in both age groups, and wanes faster against influenza A(H3N2) than A(H1N1)pdm09. Protection against H3N2 lasts longer in adults than in children. Our results suggest that influenza antibody responses shift focus with age from the mutable hemagglutinin head to other epitopes, consistent with the theory of original antigenic sin, and might affect protection. Imprinting, or primary infection with a subtype, has modest to no effect on the risk of non-medically attended infections in adults.

Protective immunity after influenza virus infection is poorly understood. Here, the authors quantify the dynamics of immunity against influenza A virus infections by fitting individual-level mechanistic models to longitudinal serology, and find that the form and dynamics of protection differ between children and adults.

Why Are CD8 T Cell Epitopes of Human Influenza A Virus Conserved?

Universal influenza vaccines against the conserved epitopes of influenza A virus have been proposed to minimize the burden of seasonal outbreaks and prepare for the pandemics. However, it is not clear how rapidly T cell-inducing vaccines will select for viruses that escape these T cell responses. Our mathematical models explore the factors that contribute to the conservation of CD8 T cell epitopes and how rapidly the virus will evolve in response to T cell-inducing vaccines. We identify the key biological parameters to be measured and questions that need to be addressed in future studies.

The high degree of conservation of CD8 T cell epitopes of influenza A virus (IAV) may allow for the development of T cell-inducing vaccines that provide protection across different strains and subtypes. This conservation is not fully explained by functional constraint, since an additional mutation(s) can compensate for the replicative fitness loss of IAV escape variants. Here, we propose three additional mechanisms that contribute to the conservation of CD8 T cell epitopes of IAV. First, influenza-specific CD8 T cells may protect predominantly against severe pathology rather than infection and may have only a modest effect on transmission. Second, polymorphism of the human major histocompatibility complex class I (MHC-I) gene restricts the advantage of an escape variant to only a small fraction of the human population who carry the relevant MHC-I alleles. Finally, infection with CD8 T cell escape variants may result in a compensatory increase in the responses to other epitopes of IAV. We use a combination of population genetics and epidemiological models to examine how the interplay between these mechanisms affects the rate of invasion of IAV escape variants. We conclude that for a wide range of biologically reasonable parameters, the invasion of an escape variant virus will be slow, with a timescale of a decade or more. The results suggest T cell-inducing vaccines do not engender the rapid evolution of IAV. Finally, we identify key parameters whose measurement will allow for more accurate quantification of the long-term effectiveness and impact of universal T cell-inducing influenza vaccines.

IMPORTANCE Universal influenza vaccines against the conserved epitopes of influenza A virus have been proposed to minimize the burden of seasonal outbreaks and prepare for the pandemics. However, it is not clear how rapidly T cell-inducing vaccines will select for viruses that escape these T cell responses. Our mathematical models explore the factors that contribute to the conservation of CD8 T cell epitopes and how rapidly the virus will evolve in response to T cell-inducing vaccines. We identify the key biological parameters to be measured and questions that need to be addressed in future studies.

Persistent Antibody Clonotypes Dominate the Serum Response to Influenza over Multiple Years and Repeated Vaccinations

Humans are repeatedly exposed to influenza virus via infections and vaccinations. Understanding how multiple exposures and pre-existing immunity impact antibody responses is essential for vaccine development. Given the recent prevalence of influenza H1N1 A/California/7/2009 (CA09), we examined the clonal composition and dynamics of CA09 hemagglutinin (HA)-reactive IgG repertoire over 5 years in a donor with multiple influenza exposures. The anti-CA09 HA polyclonal response in this donor comprised 24 persistent antibody clonotypes, accounting for 72.6% ± 10.0% of the anti-CA09 HA repertoire over 5 years. These persistent antibodies displayed higher somatic hypermutation relative to transient serum antibodies detected at one time point. Additionally, persistent antibodies predominantly demonstrated cross-reactivity and potent neutralization toward a phylogenetically distant H5N1 A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (VT04) strain, a feature correlated with HA stem recognition. This analysis reveals how "serological imprinting" impacts responses to influenza and suggests that once elicited, cross-reactive antibodies targeting the HA stem can persist for years.

Estimating the Severity Profile of Enterovirus A71 Infections in Children: A Bayesian Synthesis Framework

Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) is responsible for the majority of severe cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease, but little evidence is available on the severity profile of EV-A71 infections. We formulated a hierarchical Bayesian model that synthesized data on diseases/events associated with EV-A71 and EV-A71 antibody responses to infection among unvaccinated children from large clinical trials of EV-A71 vaccination, which were conducted in Jiangsu and Beijing during 2012 and 2013, to reconstruct the severity profile in a unified framework. On average, 15.1% of the children aged 6-35 months were infected by EV-A71 during 1-year follow-up in a mild epidemic season. We estimated that 9.7%, 2.2%, and 0.6% of children infected with EV-A71 were diagnosed with EV-A71-associated diseases, were hospitalized, and showed severe complications, respectively. We estimated on average 1 death per 10,000 EV-A71 infections for children aged 6-35 months. Approximately 70% of children had ≥4-fold rises in antibody titers after infection. Most EV-A71 infections in young children are mild, and overall 2.2% of the infected patients were hospitalized in the 2 trials. There remain several uncertainties about the immune response after infection and the duration of immunity against EV-A71 reinfection.

Immunogenicity of Influenza Vaccines: Evidence for Differential Effect of Secondary Vaccination on Humoral and Cellular Immunity

While currently used influenza vaccines are designed to induce neutralizing antibodies, little is known on T cell responses induced by these vaccines. The 2009 pandemic provided us with the opportunity to evaluate the immune response to vaccination in a unique setting. We evaluated both antibody and T cell responses in a cohort of public health care workers (18–52 years) during two consecutive influenza seasons from 2009 to 2011 and compared the MF59-adjuvanted pandemic vaccine with the unadjuvanted seasonal subunit vaccine that included the pandemic strain [The study was registered in the Netherlands Trial Register (NTR2070)]. Antibody responses were determined in serum by a hemagglutination inhibition assay. Vaccine-specific T cell responses were evaluated by detecting IFN-γ producing peripheral blood mononuclear cells using whole influenza virus or vaccine-specific peptide pools as stimulating antigens. Mixed effects regression models were used to correct the data for influenza-specific pre-existing immunity due to previous infections or vaccinations and for age and sex. We show that one dose of the pandemic vaccine induced antibody responses sufficient for providing seroprotection and that the vaccine induced T cell responses. A second dose further increased antibody responses but not T cell responses. Nonetheless, both could be boosted by the seasonal vaccine in the subsequent season. Furthermore, we show that the seasonal vaccine alone is capable of inducing vaccine-specific T cell responses, despite the fact that the vaccine did not contain an adjuvant. In addition, residual antibody levels remained detectable for over 15 months, while T cell levels in the blood had contracted to baseline levels by that time. Hereby, we show that pandemic as well as seasonal vaccines induce both humoral and cellular responses, however, with a different profile of induction and waning, which has its implications for future vaccine design.

Subdominance and poor intrinsic immunogenicity limit humoral immunity targeting influenza HA stem

Both natural influenza infection and current seasonal influenza vaccines primarily induce neutralizing antibody responses against highly diverse epitopes within the "head" of the viral hemagglutinin (HA) protein. There is increasing interest in redirecting immunity toward the more conserved HA stem or stalk as a means of broadening protective antibody responses. Here we examined HA stem-specific B cell and T follicular helper (Tfh) cell responses in the context of influenza infection and immunization in mouse and monkey models. We found that during infection, the stem domain was immunologically subdominant to the head in terms of serum antibody production and antigen-specific B and Tfh cell responses. Similarly, we found that HA stem immunogens were poorly immunogenic compared with the full-length HA with abolished sialic acid binding activity, with limiting Tfh cell elicitation a potential constraint to the induction or boosting of anti-stem immunity by vaccination. Finally, we confirm that currently licensed seasonal influenza vaccines can boost preexisting memory responses against the HA stem in humans. An increased understanding of the immune dynamics surrounding the HA stem is essential to inform the design of next-generation influenza vaccines for broad and durable protection.

Immunosenescence Modulation by Vaccination

A decline in immune function is a hallmark of aging that leads to complicated illness from a variety of infectious diseases, cancer and other immune-mediated disorders, and may limit the ability to appropriately respond to vaccination. How vaccines might alter the senescent immune response and what are the immune correlates of protection will be addressed from the perspective of (1) stimulating a previously primed response as in the case of vaccines for seasonal influenza and herpes zoster, (2) priming the response to novel antigens such as pandemic influenza or West Nile virus, (3) vaccination against bacterial pathogens such as pneumococcus and pertussis, (4) vaccines against bacterial toxins such as tetanus and Clostridium difficile, and (5) vaccine approaches to mitigate effects of cytomegalovirus on immune senescence. New or improved vaccines developed over recent years demonstrate the considerable opportunity to improve current vaccines and develop new vaccines as a preventive approach to a variety of diseases in older adults. Strategies for selecting appropriate immunologic targets for new vaccine development and evaluating how vaccines may alter the senescent immune response in terms of potential benefits and risks in the preclinical and clinical trial phases of vaccine development will be discussed.

Memory CD4+ T cells enhance B-cell responses to drifting influenza immunization

Influenza A annually infects 5-10% of the world's human population resulting in one million deaths. Influenza causes annual epidemics and reinfects previously exposed individuals because of antigenic drift in the glycoprotein hemagglutinin. Due to antigenic drift, the immune system is simultaneously exposed to novel and conserved parts of the influenza virus via vaccination and/or infection throughout life. Preexisting immunity has long been known to augment subsequent hemagglutination inhibitory antibody (hAb) responses. However, the preexisting immunological contributors that influence hAb responses are not understood. Therefore, we adapted and developed sequential infection and immunization mouse models using drifted influenza strains to show that MHC Class II haplotype and T-cell reactivity influences subsequent hAb responses. We found that CB6F1 mice infected with A/CA followed by immunization with A/PR8 have increased hAb responses to A/PR8 compared to C57BL/6 mice. Increased hAb responses in CB6F1 mice were CD4⁺  T-cell and B-cell dependent and corresponded to increased germinal center A/PR8-specific B and T-follicular helper cells. These results suggest conserved MHC Class II restricted epitopes within HA are essential for B cells to respond to drifting influenza and could be leveraged to boost hAb responses.

Climatic factors and long-term trends of influenza-like illness rates in The Netherlands, 1970-2016

BACKGROUND

Climatic factors affect the survival and transmissibility of respiratory viruses causing influenza-like illness (ILI), and we hypothesized that changes in absolute humidity and temperature may affect long-term trends of ILI incidence rate in temperate countries. We tested this hypothesis using ILI and meteorological time series in the Netherlands for the period 1970-2016.

METHODS

We described the long-term trends of ILI incidence, absolute humidity and temperature; modelled the association between climatic factors and ILI activity using negative binomial regression models; and assessed the strength of the association between the seasonal average absolute humidity (or temperature) and ILI incidence rate using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient.

RESULTS

The ILI incidence rate declined from 1970 and reached a minimum in the season 2002-03, but started to increase again from the season 2003-04 onwards. In the negative binominal regression models, the weekly ILI count was inversely associated (p < 0.001) with 0- and 1-week lagged absolute humidity and temperature. After three decades of rising absolute humidity and temperature (1970-2000), the early 2000s represented a trend-reversal point for the climatic time series. The seasonal average ILI incidence rate and absolute humidity (or temperature) were strongly (inversely) correlated.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that climate change may have played a role in the long-term trends of ILI incidence rates in the Netherlands, as we were able to show that lower humidity and temperature in a given week were associated with higher ILI incidence in the next week, there was a clear time point reversal in climatic parameters and ILI rates in the 2000s, and the average annual ILI incidence was inversely related to average annual temperatures and humidity.

Sera from Individuals with Narrowly Focused Influenza Virus Antibodies Rapidly Select Viral Escape Mutations In Ovo

Influenza viruses use distinct antibody escape mechanisms depending on the overall complexity of the antibody response that is encountered. When grown in the presence of a hemagglutinin (HA) monoclonal antibody, influenza viruses typically acquire a single HA mutation that reduces the binding of that specific monoclonal antibody. In contrast, when confronted with mixtures of HA monoclonal antibodies or polyclonal sera that have antibodies that bind several HA epitopes, influenza viruses acquire mutations that increase HA binding to host cells. Recent data from our laboratory and others suggest that some humans possess antibodies that are narrowly focused on HA epitopes that were present in influenza virus strains that they were likely exposed to in childhood. Here, we completed a series of experiments to determine if humans with narrowly focused HA antibody responses are able to select for influenza virus antigenic escape variants in ovo We identified three human donors that possessed HA antibody responses that were heavily focused on a single HA antigenic site. Sera from all three of these donors selected single HA escape mutations during in ovo passage experiments, similar to what has been previously reported for single monoclonal antibodies. These single HA mutations directly reduced binding of serum antibodies used for selection. We propose that new antigenic variants of influenza viruses might originate in individuals who produce antibodies that are narrowly focused on HA epitopes that were present in viral strains that they encountered in childhood.IMPORTANCE Influenza vaccine strains must be updated frequently since circulating viral strains continuously change in antigenically important epitopes. Our previous studies have demonstrated that some individuals possess antibody responses that are narrowly focused on epitopes that were present in viral strains that they encountered during childhood. Here, we show that influenza viruses rapidly escape this type of polyclonal antibody response when grown in ovo by acquiring single mutations that directly prevent antibody binding. These studies improve our understanding of how influenza viruses evolve when confronted with narrowly focused polyclonal human antibodies.

Treating Influenza Infection, From Now and Into the Future

Influenza viruses (IVs) are a continual threat to global health. The high mutation rate of the IV genome makes this virus incredibly successful, genetic drift allows for annual epidemics which result in thousands of deaths and millions of hospitalizations. Moreover, the emergence of new strains through genetic shift (e.g., swine-origin influenza A) can cause devastating global outbreaks of infection. Neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) are currently used to treat IV infection and act directly on viral proteins to halt IV spread. However, effectivity is limited late in infection and drug resistance can develop. New therapies which target highly conserved features of IV such as antibodies to the stem region of hemagglutinin or the IV RNA polymerase inhibitor: Favipiravir are currently in clinical trials. Compared to NAIs, these treatments have a higher tolerance for resistance and a longer therapeutic window and therefore, may prove more effective. However, clinical and experimental evidence has demonstrated that it is not just viral spread, but also the host inflammatory response and damage to the lung epithelium which dictate the outcome of IV infection. Therapeutic regimens for IV infection should therefore also regulate the host inflammatory response and protect epithelial cells from unnecessary cell death. Anti-inflammatory drugs such as etanercept, statins or cyclooxygenase enzyme 2 inhibitors may temper IV induced inflammation, demonstrating the possibility of repurposing these drugs as single or adjunct therapies for IV infection. IV binds to sialic acid receptors on the host cell surface to initiate infection and productive IV replication is primarily restricted to airway epithelial cells. Accordingly, targeting therapies to the epithelium will directly inhibit IV spread while minimizing off target consequences, such as over activation of immune cells. The neuraminidase mimic Fludase cleaves sialic acid receptors from the epithelium to inhibit IV entry to cells. While type III interferons activate an antiviral gene program in epithelial cells with minimal perturbation to the IV specific immune response. This review discusses the above-mentioned candidate anti-IV therapeutics and others at the preclinical and clinical trial stage.

Characterising seasonal influenza epidemiology using primary care surveillance data

Understanding the epidemiology of seasonal influenza is critical for healthcare resource allocation and early detection of anomalous seasons. It can be challenging to obtain high-quality data of influenza cases specifically, as clinical presentations with influenza-like symptoms may instead be cases of one of a number of alternate respiratory viruses. We use a new dataset of confirmed influenza virological data from 2011-2016, along with high-quality denominators informing a hierarchical observation process, to model seasonal influenza dynamics in New South Wales, Australia. We use approximate Bayesian computation to estimate parameters in a climate-driven stochastic epidemic model, including the basic reproduction number R₀, the proportion of the population susceptible to the circulating strain at the beginning of the season, and the probability an infected individual seeks treatment. We conclude that R₀ and initial population susceptibility were strongly related, emphasising the challenges of identifying these parameters. Relatively high R₀ values alongside low initial population susceptibility were among the results most consistent with these data. Our results reinforce the importance of distinguishing between R₀ and the effective reproduction number (R_e) in modelling studies.

When patients present to their doctor with influenza-like symptoms, they may have influenza, or some other respiratory virus. The only way to discriminate between these viruses is with an expensive test, which is not performed in many cases. Additionally, results other than influenza may not be reported. This means that it can be difficult to determine how much influenza is circulating in the population each season. We used a unique dataset of confirmed influenza with denominators to fit models for seasonal influenza in New South Wales, Australia. Knowing the denominators allowed us to estimate population level trends. We found that the relationship between influenza transmission rates and immunity due to previous infections was critical, with relatively high transmission corresponding to substantial preexisting immunity likely. This existing immunity is critical to understanding and effectively modeling influenza dynamics.

Timescales of influenza A/H3N2 antibody dynamics

Human immunity influences the evolution and impact of influenza strains. Because individuals are infected with multiple influenza strains during their lifetime, and each virus can generate a cross-reactive antibody response, it is challenging to quantify the processes that shape observed immune responses or to reliably detect recent infection from serological samples. Using a Bayesian model of antibody dynamics at multiple timescales, we explain complex cross-reactive antibody landscapes by inferring participants' histories of infection with serological data from cross-sectional and longitudinal studies of influenza A/H3N2 in southern China and Vietnam. We find that individual-level influenza antibody profiles can be explained by a short-lived, broadly cross-reactive response that decays within a year to leave a smaller long-term response acting against a narrower range of strains. We also demonstrate that accounting for dynamic immune responses alongside infection history can provide a more accurate alternative to traditional definitions of seroconversion for the estimation of infection attack rates. Our work provides a general model for quantifying aspects of influenza immunity acting at multiple timescales based on contemporary serological data and suggests a two-armed immune response to influenza infection consistent with competitive dynamics between B cell populations. This approach to analysing multiple timescales for antigenic responses could also be applied to other multistrain pathogens such as dengue and related flaviviruses.

Host contact structure is important for the recurrence of Influenza A

An important characteristic of influenza A is its ability to escape host immunity through antigenic drift. A novel influenza A strain that causes a pandemic confers full immunity to infected individuals. Yet when the pandemic strain drifts, these individuals will have decreased immunity to drifted strains in the following seasonal epidemics. We compute the required decrease in immunity so that a recurrence is possible. Models for influenza A must make assumptions on the contact structure on which the disease spreads. By considering local stability of the disease free equilibrium via computation of the reproduction number, we show that the classical random mixing assumption predicts an unrealistically large decrease of immunity before a recurrence is possible. We improve over the classical random mixing assumption by incorporating a contact network structure. A complication of contact networks is correlations induced by the initial pandemic. We provide a novel analytic derivation of such correlations and show that contact networks may require a dramatically smaller loss of immunity before recurrence. Hence, the key new insight in our paper is that on contact networks the establishment of a new strain is possible for much higher immunity levels of previously infected individuals than predicted by the commonly used random mixing assumption. This suggests that stable contacts like classmates, coworkers and family members are a crucial path for the spread of influenza in human populations.

Is It Possible to Develop a "Universal" Influenza Virus Vaccine? Immunogenetic Considerations Underlying B-Cell Biology in the Development of a Pan-Subtype Influenza A Vaccine Targeting the Hemagglutinin Stem

Current influenza vaccines preferentially generate B-cell responses to the variable hemagglutinin (HA) head. Focusing vaccine-induced antibody responses on epitopes in the conserved HA stem may provide better protection against future drifted and pandemic strains. Understanding the basis for the dominant HA head and subdominant HA stem-specific responses at the level of B-cell activation and differentiation will be critical for designing vaccines that induce sustained stem-specific responses. Identifying antibody lineages with broad neutralizing activity against influenza A viruses and defining the structural mode of recognition for germline precursors of those antibodies will also guide future immunogen design.

Immune History and Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness

The imperfect effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines is often blamed on antigenic mismatch, but even when the match appears good, effectiveness can be surprisingly low. Seasonal influenza vaccines also stand out for their variable effectiveness by age group from year to year and by recent vaccination status. These patterns suggest a role for immune history in influenza vaccine effectiveness, but inference is complicated by uncertainty about the contributions of bias to the estimates themselves. In this review, we describe unexpected patterns in the effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination and explain how these patterns might arise as consequences of study design, the dynamics of immune memory, or both. Resolving this uncertainty could lead to improvements in vaccination strategy, including the use of universal vaccines in experienced populations, and the evaluation of vaccine efficacy against influenza and other antigenically variable pathogens.

How single mutations affect viral escape from broad and narrow antibodies to H1 influenza hemagglutinin

Influenza virus can escape most antibodies with single mutations. However, rare antibodies broadly neutralize many viral strains. It is unclear how easily influenza virus might escape such antibodies if there was strong pressure to do so. Here, we map all single amino-acid mutations that increase resistance to broad antibodies to H1 hemagglutinin. Our approach not only identifies antigenic mutations but also quantifies their effect sizes. All antibodies select mutations, but the effect sizes vary widely. The virus can escape a broad antibody to hemagglutinin's receptor-binding site the same way it escapes narrow strain-specific antibodies: via single mutations with huge effects. In contrast, broad antibodies to hemagglutinin's stalk only select mutations with small effects. Therefore, among the antibodies we examine, breadth is an imperfect indicator of the potential for viral escape via single mutations. Antibodies targeting the H1 hemagglutinin stalk are quantifiably harder to escape than the other antibodies tested here.

Epidemiological Studies to Support the Development of Next Generation Influenza Vaccines

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases recently published a strategic plan for the development of a universal influenza vaccine. This plan focuses on improving understanding of influenza infection, the development of influenza immunity, and rational design of new vaccines. Epidemiological studies such as prospective, longitudinal cohort studies are essential to the completion of these objectives. In this review, we discuss the contributions of epidemiological studies to our current knowledge of vaccines and correlates of immunity, and how they can contribute to the development and evaluation of the next generation of influenza vaccines. These studies have been critical in monitoring the effectiveness of current influenza vaccines, identifying issues such as low vaccine effectiveness, reduced effectiveness among those who receive repeated vaccination, and issues related to egg adaptation during the manufacturing process. Epidemiological studies have also identified population-level correlates of protection that can inform the design and development of next generation influenza vaccines. Going forward, there is an enduring need for epidemiological studies to continue advancing knowledge of correlates of protection and the development of immunity, to evaluate and monitor the effectiveness of next generation influenza vaccines, and to inform recommendations for their use.

Estimation of Cross-Immunity Between Drifted Strains of Influenza A/H3N2

To determine the cross-immunity between influenza strains, we design a novel statistical method, which uses a theoretical model and clinical data on attack rates and vaccine efficacy among school children for two seasons after the 1968 A/H3N2 influenza pandemic. This model incorporates the distribution of susceptibility and the dependence of cross-immunity on the antigenic distance of drifted strains. We find that the cross-immunity between an influenza strain and the mutant that causes the next epidemic is 88%. Our method also gives estimates of the vaccine protection against the vaccinating strain, and the basic reproduction number of the 1968 pandemic influenza.

An updated influenza A(H3N2) vaccine generates limited antibody responses to previously encountered antigens in children

BACKGROUND

Influenza vaccination may provide a "back-boost" to antibodies against previously encountered strains. If the back-boost effect is common, this could allow more aggressive vaccine updates, as emerging variants would be expected to both elicit de-novo responses and boost pre-existing responses against recently circulating strains. Here we used the emergence of an antigenically novel A(H3N2) strain to determine whether an antigenically updated vaccine boosted antibodies against historical strains.

METHODS

We performed hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assays on pre- and post-vaccination sera from 124 children 5-17 years old who received 2015-2016 inactivated influenza vaccine, containing an antigenically updated A(H3N2) strain. We evaluated the mean fold increase in HI titer against both the 2015-2016 vaccine strain and representative strains from two prior antigenic clusters. Factors associated with post-vaccination titers against historical strains were evaluated using linear regression, adjusting for baseline titer.

RESULTS

Geometric mean titers against each antigen examined increased significantly after vaccination (P < .0001). Mean fold increase was 3.29 against the vaccine strain and 1.22-1.46 against historical strains. Response to vaccine strain was associated with increased post-vaccination titers against historical strains.

CONCLUSIONS

A vaccine containing an antigenically novel A(H3N2) strain modestly boosted antibody responses against historical influenza strains in children.

fluEvidenceSynthesis: An R package for evidence synthesis based analysis of epidemiological outbreaks

Public health related decisions often have to balance the cost of intervention strategies with the benefit of the reduction in disease burden. While the cost can often be inferred, forward modelling of the effect of different intervention options is complicated and disease specific. Here we introduce a package that is aimed to simplify this process. The package allows one to infer parameters using a Bayesian approach, perform forward modelling of the likely results of the proposed intervention and finally perform cost effectiveness analysis of the results. The package is based on a method previously used in the United Kingdom to inform vaccination strategies for influenza, with extensions to make it easily adaptable to other diseases and data sources.

From Original Antigenic Sin to the Universal Influenza Virus Vaccine

Antibody responses are essential for protection against influenza virus infection. Humans are exposed to a multitude of influenza viruses throughout their lifetime and it is clear that immune history influences the magnitude and quality of the antibody response. The 'original antigenic sin' concept refers to the impact of the first influenza virus variant encounter on lifelong immunity. Although this model has been challenged since its discovery, past exposure, and likely one's first exposure, clearly affects the epitopes targeted in subsequent responses. Understanding how previous exposure to influenza virus shapes antibody responses to vaccination and infection is critical, especially with the prospect of future pandemics and for the effective development of a universal influenza vaccine.

Urgent challenges in implementing live attenuated influenza vaccine

Conflicting reports have emerged about the effectiveness of the live attenuated influenza vaccine. The live attenuated influenza vaccine appears to protect particularly poorly against currently circulating H1N1 viruses that are derived from the 2009 pandemic H1N1 viruses. During the 2015-16 influenza season, when pandemic H1N1 was the predominant virus, studies from the USA reported a complete lack of effectiveness of the live vaccine in children. This finding led to a crucial decision in the USA to recommend that the live vaccine not be used in 2016-17 and to switch to the inactivated influenza vaccine. Other countries, including the UK, Canada, and Finland, however, have continued to recommend the use of the live vaccine. This policy divergence and uncertainty has far reaching implications for the entire global community, given the importance of the production capabilities of the live attenuated influenza vaccine for pandemic preparedness. In this Personal View, we discuss possible explanations for the observed reduced effectiveness of the live attenuated influenza vaccine and highlight the underpinning scientific questions. Further research to understand the reasons for these observations is essential to enable informed public health policy and commercial decisions about vaccine production and development in coming years.

Heterosubtypic cross-reactivity of HA1 antibodies to influenza A, with emphasis on nonhuman subtypes (H5N1, H7N7, H9N2)

Epidemics of influenza A vary greatly in size and age distribution of cases, and this variation is attributed to varying levels of pre-existing immunity. Recent studies have shown that antibody-mediated immune responses are more cross-reactive than previously believed, and shape patterns of humoral immunity to influenza A viruses over long periods. Here we quantify antibody responses to the hemagglutinin subunit 1 (HA1) across a range of subtypes using protein microarray analysis of cross-sectional serological surveys carried out in the Netherlands before and after the A/2009 (H1N1) pandemic. We find significant associations of responses, both within and between subtypes. Interestingly, substantial overall reactivity is observed to HA1 of avian H7N7 and H9N2 viruses. Seroprevalence of H7N7 correlates with antibody titers to A/1968 (H3N2), and is highest in persons born between 1954 and 1969. Seroprevalence of H9N2 is high across all ages, and correlates strongly with A/1957 (H2N2). This correlation is most pronounced in A/2009 (H1N1) infected persons born after 1968 who have never encountered A/1957 (H2N2)-like viruses. We conclude that heterosubtypic antibody cross-reactivity, both between human subtypes and between human and nonhuman subtypes, is common in the human population.

Competition between influenza A virus subtypes through heterosubtypic immunity modulates re-infection and antibody dynamics in the mallard duck

Our overall hypothesis is that host population immunity directed at multiple antigens will influence the prevalence, diversity and evolution of influenza A virus (IAV) in avian populations where the vast subtype diversity is maintained. To investigate how initial infection influences the outcome of later infections with homologous or heterologous IAV subtypes and how viruses interact through host immune responses, we carried out experimental infections in mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos). Mallards were pre-challenged with an H3N8 low-pathogenic IAV and were divided into six groups. At five weeks post H3N8 inoculation, each group was challenged with a different IAV subtype (H4N5, H10N7, H6N2, H12N5) or the same H3N8. Two additional pre-challenged groups were inoculated with the homologous H3N8 virus at weeks 11 and 15 after pre-challenge to evaluate the duration of protection. The results showed that mallards were still resistant to re-infection after 15 weeks. There was a significant reduction in shedding for all pre-challenged groups compared to controls and the outcome of the heterologous challenges varied according to hemagglutinin (HA) phylogenetic relatedness between the viruses used. There was a boost in the H3 antibody titer after re-infection with H4N5, which is consistent with original antigenic sin or antigenic seniority and suggest a putative strategy of virus evasion. These results imply competition between related subtypes that could regulate IAV subtype population dynamics in nature. Collectively, we provide new insights into within-host IAV complex interactions as drivers of IAV antigenic diversity that could allow the circulation of multiple subtypes in wild ducks.

Defining the vaccination window for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) using age-seroprevalence data for children in Kilifi, Kenya

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important cause of lower respiratory tract disease in early life and a target for vaccine prevention. Data on the age-prevalence of RSV specific antibodies will inform on optimizing vaccine delivery.

Methods

Archived plasma samples were randomly selected within age strata from 960 children less than 145 months of age admitted to Kilifi County Hospital pediatric wards between 2007 and 2010. Samples were tested for antibodies to RSV using crude virus IgG ELISA. Seroprevalence (and 95% confidence intervals) was estimated as the proportion of children with specific antibodies above a defined cut-off level. Nested catalytic models were used to explore different assumptions on antibody dynamics and estimate the rates of decay of RSV specific maternal antibody and acquisition of infection with age, and the average age of infection.

Results

RSV specific antibody prevalence was 100% at age 0-<1month, declining rapidly over the first 6 months of life, followed by an increase in the second half of the first year of life and beyond. Seroprevalence was lowest throughout the age range 5–11 months; all children were seropositive beyond 3 years of age. The best fit model to the data yielded estimates for the rate of infection of 0.78/person/year (95% CI 0.65–0.97) and 1.69/person/year (95% CI 1.27–2.04) for ages 0-<1 year and 1-<12 years, respectively. The rate of loss of maternal antibodies was estimated as 2.54/year (95% CI 2.30–2.90), i.e. mean duration 4.7 months. The mean age at primary infection was estimated at 15 months (95% CI 13–18).

Conclusions

The rate of decay of maternal antibody prevalence and subsequent age-acquisition of infection are rapid, and the average age at primary infection early. The vaccination window is narrow, and suggests optimal targeting of vaccine to infants 5 months and above to achieve high seroconversion.

Progesterone-Based Contraceptives Reduce Adaptive Immune Responses and Protection against Sequential Influenza A Virus Infections

In addition to their intended use, progesterone (P4)-based contraceptives promote anti-inflammatory immune responses, yet their effects on the outcome of infectious diseases, including influenza A virus (IAV) infection, are rarely evaluated. To evaluate their impact on immune responses to sequential IAV infections, adult female mice were treated with placebo or one of two progestins, P4 or levonorgestrel (LNG), and infected with a mouse-adapted H1N1 (maH1N1) virus. Treatment with P4 or LNG reduced morbidity but had no effect on pulmonary virus titers during primary H1N1 infection compared to placebo treatment. In serum and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, total anti-IAV IgG and IgA titers and virus-neutralizing antibody titers but not hemagglutinin stalk antibody titers were lower in progestin-treated mice than placebo-treated mice. Females were challenged 6 weeks later with either an maH1N1 drift variant (maH1N1dv) or maH3N2 IAV. The level of protection following infection with the maH1N1dv was similar among all groups. In contrast, following challenge with maH3N2, progestin treatment reduced survival as well as the numbers and activity of H1N1- and H3N2-specific memory CD8⁺ T cells, including tissue-resident cells, compared with placebo treatment. In contrast to primary IAV infection, progestin treatment increased the titers of neutralizing and IgG antibodies against both challenge viruses compared with those achieved with placebo treatment. While the immunomodulatory properties of progestins protected immunologically naive female mice from the severe outcomes from IAV infection, it made them more susceptible to secondary challenge with a heterologous IAV, despite improving their antibody responses against a secondary IAV infection. Taken together, the immunomodulatory effects of progestins differentially regulate the outcome of infection depending on exposure history.IMPORTANCE The impact of hormone-based contraceptives on the outcome of infectious diseases outside the reproductive tract is rarely considered. Using a mouse model, we have made the novel observation that treatment with either progesterone or a synthetic analog found in hormonal contraceptives, levonorgestrel, impacts sequential influenza A virus infection by modulating antibody responses and decreasing the numbers and activity of memory CD8⁺ T cells. Progestins reduced the antibody responses during primary H1N1 virus infection but increased antibody titers following a sequential infection with either an H1N1 drift variant or an H3N2 virus. Following challenge with an H3N2 virus, female mice treated with progestins experienced greater mortality with increased pulmonary inflammation and reduced numbers and activity of CD8⁺ T cells. This study suggests that progestins significantly affect adaptive immune responses to influenza A virus infection, with their effect on the outcome of infection depending on exposure history.

The impact of stratified immunity on the transmission dynamics of influenza

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The disease model with stratified immunity improves the accuracy on influenza epidemic reconstruction.

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Antibody boosting in children is greater than adults during influenza outbreak.

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Age-specific mixing pattern and the relative infectivity of children to adults are the key drivers of infection heterogeneity.

Although empirical studies show that protection against influenza infection in humans is closely related to antibody titres, influenza epidemics are often described under the assumption that individuals are either susceptible or not. Here we develop a model in which antibody titre classes are enumerated explicitly and mapped onto a variable scale of susceptibility in different age groups. Fitting only with pre- and post-wave serological data during 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong, we demonstrate that with stratified immunity, the timing and the magnitude of the epidemic dynamics can be reconstructed more accurately than is possible with binary seropositivity data. We also show that increased infectiousness of children relative to adults and age-specific mixing are required to reproduce age-specific seroprevalence observed in Hong Kong, while pre-existing immunity in the elderly is not. Overall, our results suggest that stratified immunity in an aged-structured heterogeneous population plays a significant role in determining the shape of influenza epidemics.

Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales

Our ability to infer unobservable disease-dynamic processes such as force of infection (infection hazard for susceptible hosts) has transformed our understanding of disease transmission mechanisms and capacity to predict disease dynamics. Conventional methods for inferring FOI estimate a time-averaged value and are based on population-level processes. Because many pathogens exhibit epidemic cycling and FOI is the result of processes acting across the scales of individuals and populations, a flexible framework that extends to epidemic dynamics and links within-host processes to FOI is needed. Specifically, within-host antibody kinetics in wildlife hosts can be short-lived and produce patterns that are repeatable across individuals, suggesting individual-level antibody concentrations could be used to infer time since infection and hence FOI. Using simulations and case studies (influenza A in lesser snow geese and Yersinia pestis in coyotes), we argue that with careful experimental and surveillance design, the population-level FOI signal can be recovered from individual-level antibody kinetics, despite substantial individual-level variation. In addition to improving inference, the cross-scale quantitative antibody approach we describe can reveal insights into drivers of individual-based variation in disease response, and the role of poorly understood processes such as secondary infections, in population-level dynamics of disease.

Universal or Specific? A Modeling-Based Comparison of Broad-Spectrum Influenza Vaccines against Conventional, Strain-Matched Vaccines

Despite the availability of vaccines, influenza remains a major public health challenge. A key reason is the virus capacity for immune escape: ongoing evolution allows the continual circulation of seasonal influenza, while novel influenza viruses invade the human population to cause a pandemic every few decades. Current vaccines have to be updated continually to keep up to date with this antigenic change, but emerging ‘universal’ vaccines—targeting more conserved components of the influenza virus—offer the potential to act across all influenza A strains and subtypes. Influenza vaccination programmes around the world are steadily increasing in their population coverage. In future, how might intensive, routine immunization with novel vaccines compare against similar mass programmes utilizing conventional vaccines? Specifically, how might novel and conventional vaccines compare, in terms of cumulative incidence and rates of antigenic evolution of seasonal influenza? What are their potential implications for the impact of pandemic emergence? Here we present a new mathematical model, capturing both transmission dynamics and antigenic evolution of influenza in a simple framework, to explore these questions. We find that, even when matched by per-dose efficacy, universal vaccines could dampen population-level transmission over several seasons to a greater extent than conventional vaccines. Moreover, by lowering opportunities for cross-protective immunity in the population, conventional vaccines could allow the increased spread of a novel pandemic strain. Conversely, universal vaccines could mitigate both seasonal and pandemic spread. However, where it is not possible to maintain annual, intensive vaccination coverage, the duration and breadth of immunity raised by universal vaccines are critical determinants of their performance relative to conventional vaccines. In future, conventional and novel vaccines are likely to play complementary roles in vaccination strategies against influenza: in this context, our results suggest important characteristics to monitor during the clinical development of emerging vaccine technologies.

Influenza vaccines used today offer good protection, but have limitations: they have to be updated regularly, to remain effective in the face of ongoing virus evolution, and they cannot be used in advance of an influenza pandemic. In this study we considered how such ‘conventional’ vaccines might compare on the population level against new ‘universal’ vaccines currently being developed, that may protect against a broad spectrum of influenza viruses. We developed a mathematical model to capture the interactions between vaccination, influenza transmission, and viral evolution. The model suggests that annual vaccination with universal vaccines could control annual influenza epidemics more efficiently than conventional vaccines. In doing so they could slow viral evolution, rather than promoting it, while maintaining the broadly protective immunity that could mitigate against the emergence of a pandemic. These effects depend sensitively on the duration of protection that universal vaccines can afford, an important quantity to monitor in their development. In future, it is likely that conventional and universal vaccines would be deployed in tandem: we suggest that they could fulfill distinct roles, with universal vaccines being prioritised for managing transmission and evolution, and conventional vaccines being focused on protecting specific risk groups.

Immunity against influenza A(H1N1) infections is determined by age at the time of initial strain circulation

We explored age-dependent patterns in haemagglutination inhibition (HI) titre to seasonal [1956 A(H1N1), 1977 A(H1N1), 2007 A(H1N1)] and pandemic [A(H1N1)pdm09] influenza strains using serological data collected from an adult French influenza cohort. Subjects were recruited by their general practitioners from 2008 to 2009 and followed until 2010. We explored age-related differences between strain-specific HI titres using 1053 serological samples collected over the study period from 398 unvaccinated subjects. HI titres against the tested seasonal and pandemic strains were determined using the HI technique. Geometric mean titres (GMTs) were estimated using regression models for interval-censored data. Generalized additive mixed models were fit to log-transformed HI estimates to study the relationship between HI titre and age (age at inclusion and/or age at initial strain circulation). GMT against one strain was consistently highest in the birth cohort exposed to that strain during childhood, with peak titres observed in subjects aged 7-8 years at the time of initial strain circulation. Our results complete previous findings on influenza A(H3N2) strains and identify a strain-dependent relationship between HI titre and age at initial strain circulation.

Antibodies with 'Original Antigenic Sin' Properties Are Valuable Components of Secondary Immune Responses to Influenza Viruses

Human antibodies (Abs) elicited by influenza viruses often bind with a high affinity to past influenza virus strains, but paradoxically, do not bind to the viral strain actually eliciting the response. This phenomena is called ‘original antigenic sin’ (OAS) since this can occur at the expense of generating new de novo Abs. Here, we characterized the specificity and functionality of Abs elicited in mice that were sequentially exposed to two antigenically distinct H1N1 influenza virus strains. Many Abs elicited under these conditions had an OAS phenotype, in that they bound strongly to the viral strain used for the first exposure and very weakly to the viral strain used for the second exposure. We found that OAS and non-OAS Abs target the same general region of the influenza hemagglutinin protein and that B cells expressing these two types of Abs can be clonally-related. Surprisingly, although OAS Abs bound with very low affinities, some were able to effectively protect against an antigenically drifted viral strain following passive transfer in vivo. Taken together, our data indicate that OAS Abs share some level of cross-reactivity between priming and recall viral strains and that B cells producing these Abs can be protective when recalled into secondary immune responses.

Humans are continuously exposed to antigenically distinct influenza virus strains. Influenza virus infections early in life elicit immune responses that are subsequently recalled upon exposures with different influenza virus strains. Antibodies elicited against older influenza strains can dominate immune responses elicited against new influenza strains. This process is referred to as ‘original antigenic sin’ since the recall of antibodies against past influenza strains can occur at the apparent expense of generating antibodies against new viral strains. It has been proposed that ‘original antigenic sin’ contributes to vaccine failures. Here, we use a mouse model to show that antibodies that have an ‘original antigenic sin’ phenotype surprisingly target the same regions of influenza viruses that are recognized by strain-specific antibodies. Most importantly, despite the observation that ‘original antigenic sin’ antibodies bound poorly in conventional binding assays, these antibodies were able to efficiently protect in vivo. These data indicate that antibodies with an ‘original antigenic sin’ phenotype are an underappreciated valuable component of secondary immune responses to influenza viruses.

Seroepidemiology: an underused tool for designing and monitoring vaccination programmes in low- and middle-income countries

Seroepidemiology, the use of data on the prevalence of bio-markers of infection or vaccination, is a potentially powerful tool to understand the epidemiology of infection before vaccination and to monitor the effectiveness of vaccination programmes. Global and national burden of disease estimates for hepatitis B and rubella are based almost exclusively on serological data. Seroepidemiology has helped in the design of measles, poliomyelitis and rubella elimination programmes, by informing estimates of the required population immunity thresholds for elimination. It contributes to monitoring of these programmes by identifying population immunity gaps and evaluating the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns. Seroepidemiological data have also helped to identify contributing factors to resurgences of diphtheria, Haemophilus Influenzae type B and pertussis. When there is no confounding by antibodies induced by natural infection (as is the case for tetanus and hepatitis B vaccines), seroprevalence data provide a composite picture of vaccination coverage and effectiveness, although they cannot reliably indicate the number of doses of vaccine received. Despite these potential uses, technological, time and cost constraints have limited the widespread application of this tool in low-income countries. The use of venous blood samples makes it difficult to obtain high participation rates in surveys, but the performance of assays based on less invasive samples such as dried blood spots or oral fluid has varied greatly. Waning antibody levels after vaccination may mean that seroprevalence underestimates immunity. This, together with variation in assay sensitivity and specificity and the common need to take account of antibody induced by natural infection, means that relatively sophisticated statistical analysis of data is required. Nonetheless, advances in assays on minimally invasive samples may enhance the feasibility of including serology in large survey programmes in low-income countries. In this paper, we review the potential uses of seroepidemiology to improve vaccination policymaking and programme monitoring and discuss what is needed to broaden the use of this tool in low- and middle-income countries.

Multi-epitope Models Explain How Pre-existing Antibodies Affect the Generation of Broadly Protective Responses to Influenza

The development of next-generation influenza vaccines that elicit strain-transcendent immunity against both seasonal and pandemic viruses is a key public health goal. Targeting the evolutionarily conserved epitopes on the stem of influenza’s major surface molecule, hemagglutinin, is an appealing prospect, and novel vaccine formulations show promising results in animal model systems. However, studies in humans indicate that natural infection and vaccination result in limited boosting of antibodies to the stem of HA, and the level of stem-specific antibody elicited is insufficient to provide broad strain-transcendent immunity. Here, we use mathematical models of the humoral immune response to explore how pre-existing immunity affects the ability of vaccines to boost antibodies to the head and stem of HA in humans, and, in particular, how it leads to the apparent lack of boosting of broadly cross-reactive antibodies to the stem epitopes. We consider hypotheses where binding of antibody to an epitope: (i) results in more rapid clearance of the antigen; (ii) leads to the formation of antigen-antibody complexes which inhibit B cell activation through Fcγ receptor-mediated mechanism; and (iii) masks the epitope and prevents the stimulation and proliferation of specific B cells. We find that only epitope masking but not the former two mechanisms to be key in recapitulating patterns in data. We discuss the ramifications of our findings for the development of vaccines against both seasonal and pandemic influenza.

The current influenza vaccine requires frequent updating in order to protect against small changes in the virus from one year to the next as well as larger changes associated with the emergence of new influenza strains from zoonotic reservoirs that cause pandemics. There is a considerable interest in developing “universal” vaccines that will boost immune responses to the conserved regions of the virus, in particular, to the stem region of the major virus surface molecule hemagglutinin (HA). However, recent data reveals that vaccination results in very limited boosting of antibodies to the stem of HA. We use mathematical models to explore different hypotheses that may explain why vaccination does not boost antibodies to the conserved parts of the virus. By confronting our models with the data from the human vaccination trials we found that the key mechanism preventing effective boosting of the responses to the stem of HA is masking of the stem by pre-existing antibodies developed during previous infections and vaccinations. We discuss how this masking effect could be overcome in a “universal” influenza vaccine.

Mathematical Model Reveals the Role of Memory CD8 T Cell Populations in Recall Responses to Influenza

The current influenza vaccine provides narrow protection against the strains included in the vaccine, and needs to be reformulated every few years in response to the constantly evolving new strains. Novel approaches are directed toward developing vaccines that provide broader protection by targeting B and T cell epitopes that are conserved between different strains of the virus. In this paper, we focus on developing mathematical models to explore the CD8 T cell responses to influenza, how they can be boosted, and the conditions under which they contribute to protection. Our models suggest that the interplay between spatial heterogeneity (with the virus infecting the respiratory tract and the immune response being generated in the secondary lymphoid organs) and T cell differentiation (with proliferation occurring in the lymphoid organs giving rise to a subpopulation of resident T cells in the respiratory tract) is the key to understand the dynamics of protection afforded by the CD8 T cell response to influenza. Our results suggest that the time lag for the generation of resident T cells in the respiratory tract and their rate of decay following infection are the key factors that limit the efficacy of CD8 T cell responses. The models predict that an increase in the level of central memory T cells leads to a gradual decrease in the viral load, and, in contrast, there is a sharper protection threshold for the relationship between the size of the population of resident T cells and protection. The models also suggest that repeated natural influenza infections cause the number of central memory CD8 T cells and the peak number of resident memory CD8 T cells to reach their plateaus, and while the former is maintained, the latter decays with time since the most recent infection.

Masking of antigenic epitopes by antibodies shapes the humoral immune response to influenza

The immune responses to influenza, a virus that exhibits strain variation, show complex dynamics where prior immunity shapes the response to the subsequent infecting strains. Original antigenic sin (OAS) describes the observation that antibodies to the first encountered influenza strain, specifically antibodies to the epitopes on the head of influenza's main surface glycoprotein, haemagglutinin (HA), dominate following infection with new drifted strains. OAS suggests that responses to the original strain are preferentially boosted. Recent studies also show limited boosting of the antibodies to conserved epitopes on the stem of HA, which are attractive targets for a 'universal vaccine'. We develop multi-epitope models to explore how pre-existing immunity modulates the immune response to new strains following immunization. Our models suggest that the masking of antigenic epitopes by antibodies may play an important role in describing the complex dynamics of OAS and limited boosting of antibodies to the stem of HA. Analysis of recently published data confirms model predictions for how pre-existing antibodies to an epitope on HA decrease the magnitude of boosting of the antibody response to this epitope following immunization. We explore strategies for boosting of antibodies to conserved epitopes and generating broadly protective immunity to multiple strains.

Computational Characterization of Transient Strain-Transcending Immunity against Influenza A

The enigmatic observation that the rapidly evolving influenza A (H3N2) virus exhibits, at any given time, a limited standing genetic diversity has been an impetus for much research. One of the first generative computational models to successfully recapitulate this pattern of consistently constrained diversity posits the existence of a strong and short-lived strain-transcending immunity. Building on that model, we explored a much broader set of scenarios (parameterizations) of a transient strain-transcending immunity, ran long-term simulations of each such scenario, and assessed its plausibility with respect to a set of known or estimated influenza empirical measures. We evaluated simulated outcomes using a variety of measures, both epidemiological (annual attack rate, epidemic duration, reproductive number, and peak weekly incidence), and evolutionary (pairwise antigenic diversity, fixation rate, most recent common ancestor, and kappa, which quantifies the potential for antigenic evolution). Taking cumulative support from all these measures, we show which parameterizations of strain-transcending immunity are plausible with respect to the set of empirically derived target values. We conclude that strain-transcending immunity which is milder and longer lasting than previously suggested is more congruent with the observed short- and long-term behavior of influenza.