GetReal in network meta-analysis: a review of the methodology

Pharmacological and dietary-supplement treatments for autism spectrum disorder: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

There is still no approved medication for the core symptoms of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). This network meta-analysis investigated pharmacological and dietary-supplement treatments for ASD.

METHODS

We searched for randomized-controlled-trials (RCTs) with a minimum duration of seven days in ClinicalTrials.gov, EMBASE, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, WHO-ICTRP (from inception up to July 8, 2018), CENTRAL and PubMed (up to November 3, 2021). The co-primary outcomes were core symptoms (social-communication difficulties-SCD, repetitive behaviors-RB, overall core symptoms-OCS) measured by validated scales and standardized-mean-differences (SMDs). Associated symptoms, e.g., irritability/aggression and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms, dropouts and important side-effects, were investigated as secondary outcomes. Studies in children/adolescents and adults were analyzed separately in random-effects pairwise and network meta-analyses.

RESULTS

We analyzed data for 41 drugs and 17 dietary-supplements, from 125 RCTs (n = 7450 participants) in children/adolescents and 18 RCTs (n = 1104) in adults. The following medications could improve at least one core symptom domain in comparison with placebo: aripiprazole (k = 6 studies in analysis, SCD: SMD = 0.27 95% CI [0.09, 0.44], RB: 0.48 [0.26, 0.70]), atomoxetine (k = 3, RB:0.49 [0.18, 0.80]), bumetanide (k = 4, RB: 0.35 [0.09, 0.62], OCS: 0.61 [0.31, 0.91]), and risperidone (k = 4, SCM: 0.31 [0.06, 0.55], RB: 0.60 [0.29, 0.90]; k = 3, OCS: 1.18 [0.75, 1.61]) in children/adolescents; fluoxetine (k = 1, RB: 1.20 [0.45, 1.96]), fluvoxamine (k = 1, RB: 1.04 [0.27, 1.81]), oxytocin (k = 6, RB:0.41 [0.16, 0.66]) and risperidone (k = 1, RB: 0.97 [0.21,1.74]) in adults. There were some indications of improvement by carnosine, haloperidol, folinic acid, guanfacine, omega-3-fatty-acids, probiotics, sulforaphane, tideglusib and valproate, yet imprecise and not robust. Confidence in these estimates was very low or low, except moderate for oxytocin. Medications differed substantially in improving associated symptoms, and in their side-effect profiles.

LIMITATIONS

Most of the studies were inadequately powered (sample sizes of 20-80 participants), with short duration (8-13 weeks), and about a third focused on associated symptoms. Networks were mainly star-shaped, and there were indications of reporting bias. There was no optimal rating scale measuring change in core symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

Some medications could improve core symptoms, although this could be likely secondary to the improvement of associated symptoms. Evidence on their efficacy and safety is preliminary; therefore, routine prescription of medications for the core symptoms cannot be recommended. Trial registration PROSPERO-ID CRD42019125317.

Cross-roads for meta-analysis and network meta-analysis of H. pylori therapy

Helicobacter pylori infections are responsible for tremendous morbidity and mortality worldwide, leading to efforts to eradicate the organism. However, the effectiveness of antimicrobial therapy has been undermined by the progressive development of antimicrobial resistance. Treatments and treatment guidelines have been based on traditional pairwise meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. More recently, network meta-analyses have also been used in an attempt to provide useful information to the clinician regarding which therapies appear best and which to avoid as the least efficacious. However, both forms of meta-analysis have been undermined by the same problems including the poor quality of the clinical trials using unoptimised regimens and incomparable comparisons related to marked geographic and ethnic genotypic and phenotypic heterogeneity. In addition, the comparator regimens often consist of invalid strawman comparisons. New approaches concerning H. pylori treatment and analysis of therapies are needed. H. pylori therapies should be based on antimicrobial stewardship, as in other infectious diseases. This approach requires the use of only optimised therapies proven to be reliably highly effective in the local population (eg, a cure rate of >90%) for both the study and the comparator regimens. Meta-analyses should be restricted to regimens that meet these criteria and must take into account the presence of marked geographical and host genetic and phenotypic heterogeneity. In addition, to provide clinically relevant results, treatment outcomes should focus on, and present, actual cure rates in addition to odd ratios.

Oral Antihypertensives for Nonsevere Pregnancy Hypertension: Systematic Review, Network Meta- and Trial Sequential Analyses

BACKGROUND

We aimed to address which antihypertensives are superior to placebo/no therapy or another antihypertensive for controlling nonsevere pregnancy hypertension and provide future sample size estimates for definitive evidence.

METHODS

Randomized trials of antihypertensives for nonsevere pregnancy hypertension were identified from online electronic databases, to February 28, 2021 (registration URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/; unique identifier: CRD42020188725). Our outcomes were severe hypertension, proteinuria/preeclampsia, fetal/newborn death, small-for-gestational age infants, preterm birth, and admission to neonatal care. A Bayesian random-effects model generated estimates of direct and indirect treatment comparisons. Trial sequential analysis informed future trials needed.

RESULTS

Of 1246 publications identified, 72 trials were included; 61 (6923 women) were informative. All commonly prescribed antihypertensives (labetalol, other β-blockers, methyldopa, calcium channel blockers, and mixed/multi-drug therapy) versus placebo/no therapy reduced the risk of severe hypertension by 30% to 70%. Labetalol decreased proteinuria/preeclampsia (odds ratio, 0.73 [95% credible interval, 0.54-0.99]) and fetal/newborn death (odds ratio, 0.54 [0.30-0.98]) compared with placebo/no therapy, and proteinuria/preeclampsia compared with methyldopa (odds ratio, 0.66 [0.44-0.99]) and calcium channel blockers (odds ratio, 0.63 [0.41-0.96]). No other differences were identified, but credible intervals were wide. Trial sequential analysis indicated that 2500 to 10 000 women/arm (severe hypertension or safety outcomes) to >15 000/arm (fetal/newborn death) would be required to provide definitive evidence.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, all commonly prescribed antihypertensives in pregnancy reduce the risk of severe hypertension, but labetalol may also decrease proteinuria/preeclampsia and fetal/newborn death. Evidence is lacking for many other safety outcomes. Prohibitive sample sizes are required for definitive evidence. Real-world data are needed to individualize care.

Network Meta-Analysis for Single-Case Design Studies: An Illustration

Single-case designs (SCDs) are used to evaluate the effects of interventions on individual participants. By repeatedly measuring participants under different conditions, SCD studies focus on individual effects rather than on group summaries. The main limitation of SCDs remains its generalisability to wider populations, reducing the relevance of their findings for practice and policy making. With this limitation in mind, methodological developments for synthesising SCD data from different studies that investigate the same research question have intensified in the past decades (e.g. multilevel modelling). However, these techniques are restricted to comparing two interventions at a time and can only incorporate evidence from studies that directly compare the two treatments of interest. These limitations could be addressed by using network meta-analysis that incorporates both direct and indirect evidence to simultaneously compare multiple interventions. Despite its potential, network meta-analytical techniques have yet to be applied to SCD data. Thus, in this paper, we argue that network meta-analysis can be a valuable tool to synthesise SCD data. We demonstrate the use of network meta-analysis in SCD data using a real dataset, and we conclude by reflecting on the challenges that SCD researchers might face when applying network meta-analysis methods to their data.

Neuropsychological Interventions for Cancer-Related Cognitive Impairment: A Network Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

The aim of this network meta-analysis was to evaluate the comparative effects of neuropsychological interventions for cancer-related cognitive impairment (CRCI), and to rank the best intervention options for adult cancer patients with CRCI. Twenty-seven eligible randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were searched, and a total of six interventions identified: cognitive behavioral therapies (CBT), cognitive rehabilitation (CR), cognitive training (CT), meditation/mindfulness-based interventions, psychoeducation, and supportive care. In terms of effectiveness, the relative effect size of CBT, CR, and CT in managing subjective cognition had statistically significant differences - 0.94 (0.43-1.44), 0.54 (0.03-1.05), and 0.47 (0.13-0.81), respectively. The most effective interventions to manage the objective cognition of attention were meditation or mindfulness-based interventions: intervention effect size was 0.58 (0.24-0.91). The relative effect size of CT had a statistically significant difference in managing verbal memory, and the intervention effect size was 1.16 (0.12-2.20). The relative effect size of psychoeducation in managing executive function compared with control had a statistically significant difference, which was 0.56 (0.26-0.86). For managing information processing speed, the most effective intervention was CT and the effect size was -0.58 (-1.09--0.06). This network meta-analysis found that CT is the most effective intervention for managing the objective cognition of verbal memory and processing speed; meditation/mindfulness-based interventions may be the best option for enhancing attention; psychoeducation is the most effective intervention for managing executive function; CT may be the best option for managing verbal fluency as the intervention ranking probability. For the management of subjective cognition, CBT may be the most effective intervention.

Software to Conduct a Meta-Analysis and Network Meta-Analysis

Statistical software for meta-analysis (MA) and network meta-analysis (NMA) have become indispensable for researchers. The aim of this chapter is to introduce key features of MA and NMA software to compare the effectiveness of interventions. Commonly used or routinely maintained statistical software are reviewed, including commercial and open-sourced programs such as Stata, R and Excel plug-ins. It does not provide a comprehensive overview of all features available in the software covered. Rather, it focuses on the essential features required to carry out an MA or NMA . This chapter begins with a review of key considerations when implementing an MA or NMA , then presents a summary of the software. Key features of each software option are discussed.

Contrast-Based and Arm-Based Models for Network Meta-Analysis

Network meta-analysis is used to synthesize evidence from a network of treatments. The models used in a network meta-analysis are more complex than those used for pairwise meta-analysis. Two types of models are available to undertake a network meta-analysis: contrast-based and arm-based models. Contrast-based models have been used in most published network meta-analyses. Arm-based models offer greater flexibility and handle treatments symmetrically, but risk compromising randomization. In this chapter, we (1) present the contrast-based and arm-based statistical models; (2) describe the theoretical differences between the models (noting when the estimates from the models are expected to diverge); (3) summarize the evidence comparing the two models from simulation studies and empirical investigations; and (4) provide a worked example applying the two models to a network using the R software package.

A Revised Framework to Evaluate the Consistency Assumption Globally in a Network of Interventions

Background

The unrelated mean effects (UME) model has been proposed for evaluating the consistency assumption globally in the network of interventions. However, the UME model does not accommodate multiarm trials properly and omits comparisons between nonbaseline interventions in the multiarm trials not investigated in 2-arm trials.

Methods

We proposed a refinement of the UME model that tackles the limitations mentioned above. We also accompanied the scatterplots on the posterior mean deviance contributions of the trial arms under the network meta-analysis (NMA) and UME models with Bland-Altman plots to detect outlying trials contributing to poor model fit. We applied the refined and original UME models to 2 networks with multiarm trials.

Results

The original UME model omitted more than 20% of the observed comparisons in both networks. The thorough inspection of the individual data points’ deviance contribution using complementary plots in conjunction with the measures of model fit and the estimated between-trial variance indicated that the refined and original UME models revealed possible inconsistency in both examples.

Conclusions

The refined UME model allows proper accommodation of the multiarm trials and visualization of all observed evidence in complex networks of interventions. Furthermore, considering several complementary plots to investigate deviance helps draw informed conclusions on the possibility of global inconsistency in the network.

Highlights

Hypofractionated radiotherapy for newly diagnosed elderly glioblastoma patients: A systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate different hypofractionated radiotherapy (HRT) regimens for newly diagnosed elderly glioblastoma (GBM) patients.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review with network meta-analysis (NMA), including searches on CENTRAL, Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, clinical trial databases and manual search. Only randomized clinical trials (RCTs) were included. Primary outcomes: overall survival (OS) and adverse events (AE). Secondary outcomes: progression-free-survival (PFS) and quality of life (QoL). We used the Cochrane Risk of Bias (RoB) table for assessing individual studies and CINeMA for evaluating the certainty of the final body of evidence.

RESULTS

Four RCTs (499 patients) were included. For OS, the estimates from NMA did not provide strong evidence of a difference between the HRTs: 40 Gray (Gy) versus 45 Gy (HR: 0.89; CI 95%: 0.42, 1.91); 34 Gy versus 45 Gy (HR: 0.85; CI 95% 0.43, 1.70); 25 Gy versus 45 Gy (HR: 0.81; CI 95% 0.32, 2.02); 34 Gy versus 40 Gy (HR: 0.95; CI 95% 0.57, 1.61); and 25 Gy versus 34 Gy (HR: 0.95; CI 95% 0.46, 1.97). We performed qualitative synthesis for AE and QoL due to data scarcity and clinical heterogeneity among studies. The four studies reported a similar QoL (assessed by different methods) between arms. One RCT reported grade ≥ 3 AE, with no evidence of a difference between arms. PFS was reported in one study (25 Gy versus 40 Gy), with no evidence of a difference between arms.

CONCLUSION

This review found no evidence of a difference between the evaluated HRTs for efficacy and safety.

A frequentist one-step model for a simple network meta-analysis of time-to-event data in presence of an effect modifier

INTRODUCTION

Individual patient data (IPD) present particular advantages in network meta-analysis (NMA) because interactions may lead an aggregated data (AD)-based model to wrong a treatment effect (TE) estimation. However, fewer works have been conducted for IPD with time-to-event contrary to binary outcomes. We aimed to develop a general frequentist one-step model for evaluating TE in the presence of interaction in a three-node NMA for time-to-event data.

METHODS

One-step, frequentist, IPD-based Cox and Poisson generalized linear mixed models were proposed. We simulated a three-node network with or without a closed loop with (1) no interaction, (2) covariate-treatment interaction, and (3) covariate distribution heterogeneity and covariate-treatment interaction. These models were applied to the NMA (Meta-analyses of Chemotherapy in Head and Neck Cancer [MACH-NC] and Radiotherapy in Carcinomas of Head and Neck [MARCH]), which compared the addition of chemotherapy or modified radiotherapy (mRT) to loco-regional treatment with two direct comparisons. AD-based (contrast and meta-regression) models were used as reference.

RESULTS

In the simulated study, no IPD models failed to converge. IPD-based models performed well in all scenarios and configurations with small bias. There were few variations across different scenarios. In contrast, AD-based models performed well when there were no interactions, but demonstrated some bias when interaction existed and a larger one when the modifier was not distributed evenly. While meta-regression performed better than contrast-based only, it demonstrated a large variability in estimated TE. In the real data example, Cox and Poisson IPD-based models gave similar estimations of the model parameters. Interaction decomposition permitted by IPD explained the ecological bias observed in the meta-regression.

CONCLUSION

The proposed general one-step frequentist Cox and Poisson models had small bias in the evaluation of a three-node network with interactions. They performed as well or better than AD-based models and should also be undertaken whenever possible.

Predictive P-score for treatment ranking in Bayesian network meta-analysis

Background

Network meta-analysis (NMA) is a widely used tool to compare multiple treatments by synthesizing different sources of evidence. Measures such as the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) and the P-score are increasingly used to quantify treatment ranking. They provide summary scores of treatments among the existing studies in an NMA. Clinicians are frequently interested in applying such evidence from the NMA to decision-making in the future. This prediction process needs to account for the heterogeneity between the existing studies in the NMA and a future study.

Methods

This article introduces the predictive P-score for informing treatment ranking in a future study via Bayesian models. Two NMAs were used to illustrate the proposed measure; the first assessed 4 treatment strategies for smoking cessation, and the second assessed treatments for all-grade treatment-related adverse events. For all treatments in both NMAs, we obtained their conventional frequentist P-scores, Bayesian P-scores, and predictive P-scores.

Results

In the two examples, the Bayesian P-scores were nearly identical to the corresponding frequentist P-scores for most treatments, while noticeable differences existed for some treatments, likely owing to the different assumptions made by the frequentist and Bayesian NMA models. Compared with the P-scores, the predictive P-scores generally had a trend to converge toward a common value of 0.5 due to the heterogeneity. The predictive P-scores’ numerical estimates and the associated plots of posterior distributions provided an intuitive way for clinicians to appraise treatments for new patients in a future study.

Conclusions

The proposed approach adapts the existing frequentist P-score to the Bayesian framework. The predictive P-score can help inform medical decision-making in future studies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-021-01397-5.

Reporting of Cochrane systematic review protocols with network meta-analyses-A scoping review

Publishing systematic review protocols is a fundamental part of systematic reviews to ensure transparency and reproducibility. In this scoping review, we aimed to evaluate reporting of Cochrane systematic review protocols with network meta-analyses (NMA). We searched all Cochrane NMA protocols published in 2018 and 2019, and assessed the characteristics and reporting of methodologies relevant to NMA. We reported frequencies for each reporting item. Forty-five protocols were assessed, including two for overviews and 43 for intervention reviews. Thirty-three (73%) were labelled as NMA protocols in the title. Forty-two (95%) justified the need of an NMA and 40 (89%) used appropriate search strategies to identify potential eligible studies. About half (24, 53%) considered the transitivity assumption when reporting inclusion criteria and 35 (78%) specified potential effect modifiers. Forty-three (96%) reported statistical software for NMA, 25 (56%) reported NMA model choice, 32 (71%) reported framework choice and 32 (71%) reported assumption about heterogeneity variances. Protocols varied in whether they reported methods for relative ranking (35, 78%), statistical inconsistency (40, 89%), reporting bias (44, 98%) and sources of heterogeneity (39, 87%). In conclusion, Cochrane NMA protocols reported multiple NMA-specific items well, but could be further improved, especially regarding transitivity assumptions. Our recommendations for NMA protocol reporting based on this scoping review could assist authors, reviewers, and editors to improve NMA protocols.

Protocol of a systematic review and network meta-analysis for the prevention and treatment of perinatal depression

INTRODUCTION

Perinatal depression is common and can often lead to adverse health outcomes for mother and child. Multiple pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments have been evaluated against usual care or placebo controls in meta-analyses for preventing and treating perinatal depression compared. It is not yet established which of these candidate treatments might be the optimal approach for prevention or treatment.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analyses will be conducted. Eight electronic databases shall be searched for randomised controlled trials that have evaluated the effectiveness of treatments for prevention and/or treatment of perinatal depression. Screening of articles shall be conducted by two reviewers independently. One network meta-analysis shall evaluate the effectiveness of interventions in preventing depression during the perinatal period. A second network meta-analysis shall compare the effectiveness of treatments for depression symptoms in women with perinatal depression. Bayesian 95% credible intervals shall be used to estimate the pooled mean effect size of each treatment, and surface under cumulative ranking area will be used to rank the treatments' effectiveness.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

We shall report our findings so that healthcare providers can make informed decisions on what might be the optimal approach for addressing perinatal depression to prevent cases and improve outcomes in those suffering from depression through knowledge exchange workshops, international conference presentations and journal article publications.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020200081.

Relative effectiveness of non-surgical interventions for pain management in knee osteoarthritis: a protocol for a component network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

INTRODUCTION

Knee osteoarthritis is a chronic degenerative disease associated with significant chronic pain, disability and impaired quality of life and is the most common form of osteoarthritis. There is no cure for knee osteoarthritis, and the main therapeutic goals are pain management and improving quality of life. The objective of this study is to evaluate the relative efficacy and acceptability of available interventions using network meta-analysis (NMA) to provide a comprehensive evidence base to inform future treatment guidelines.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A comprehensive literature search of major electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) and clinical trial registries will identify randomised control trials (RCTs) of interventions listed in NICE guidelines for the treatment of knee osteoarthritis in adults. We will perform an NMA to estimate relative intervention effects across the whole treatment network. If any studies use multicomponent intervention packages, we will employ a component NMA model to estimate the contribution of individual components. The quality of evidence will be assessed using the Confidence in Network Meta-Analysis approach, which is based on the traditional GRADE framework adapted for NMA. Risk of bias (RoB) will be assessed using the revised Cochrane RoB 2.0 tool for RCTs.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study does not require ethical approval. Findings will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020184192.

Health wearable devices for weight and BMI reduction in individuals with overweight/obesity and chronic comorbidities: systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the comparative effectiveness of different health wearable-based physical activity (PA) promotion intervention strategies against each other and control for reducing body weight and body mass index (BMI) in individuals with overweight/obesity and chronic comorbidities.

DESIGN

Systematic review and network meta-analysis (PROSPERO identifier: CRD42020158191).

DATA SOURCES

We performed two independent searches from December 2019 to September 2020 in PubMed, MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science, Central Register of Controlled Trials, EMBASE and PsycINFO databases for articles published in English between 2007 and 2020.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES

Inclusion criteria were based on the PICOS framework. We included randomised controlled trials of health wearable-based interventions using two or more PA intervention arms/strategies and compared their effects on participants' body weight (kg) and BMI (kg/m2) with a control group. Data were analysed using a Bayesian network meta-analysis to directly and indirectly compare the effects of the six different intervention strategies (comparators). The six comparators were: (1) control group (ie, usual care, waitlist); (2) comparison group (ie, traditional, non-health wearable PA interventions); (3) commercial health wearable-only intervention (eg, Fitbit, Polar M400); (4) research grade health wearable-only intervention (ie, accelerometers or pedometers); (5) multicomponent commercial health wearable intervention (eg, Fitbit + nutrition counselling); and (6) multicomponent research grade health wearable intervention. The results were reported as standardised mean differences (SMDs) with associated 95% credible intervals (CrIs).

RESULTS

From 641 screened records, 31 studies were included. For body weight reduction in individuals with overweight/obesity and chronic comorbidities, accelerometer/pedometer-only (SMD -4.44, 95% CrI -8.94 to 0.07) and commercial health wearable-only (SMD -2.76, 95% CrI -4.80 to -0.81) intervention strategies were the most effective compared with the three other treatments and control. For BMI reduction, multicomponent accelerometer/pedometer (SMD -3.43, 95% CrI -4.94 to -2.09) and commercial health wearable-only (SMD -1.99, 95% CrI -4.95 to 0.96) intervention strategies were the most effective compared with the other four conditions.

CONCLUSION

Health wearable devices are effective intervention tools/strategies for reducing body weight and BMI in individuals with overweight/obesity and chronic comorbidities.

Iron preparations for women of reproductive age with iron deficiency anaemia in pregnancy (FRIDA): a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Numerous iron preparations are available for the treatment of iron deficiency anaemia in pregnancy. We aimed to provide a summary of the effectiveness and safety of iron preparations used in this setting.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised trials. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, trial registers, and grey literature for trials published in any language from Jan 1, 2011, to Feb 28, 2021. We included trials including pregnant women with iron deficiency anaemia and evaluating iron preparations, irrespective of administration route, with at least 60 mg of elemental iron, in comparison with another iron or non-iron preparation. Three authors independently selected studies, extracted data, and did a risk of bias assessment using the Cochrane tool (version 1.0). The primary outcome was the effectiveness of iron preparations, evaluated by changes in haemoglobin concentration at 4 weeks from baseline. The secondary outcomes were change in serum ferritin concentration at 4 weeks from baseline and treatment-related severe and non-severe adverse events. We did random-effects pairwise and network meta-analyses. Side-effects were reported descriptively for each trial. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42018100822.

FINDINGS

Among 3037 records screened, 128 full-text articles were further assessed for eligibility. Of the 53 eligible trials (reporting on 9145 women), 30 (15 interventions; 3243 women) contributed data to the network meta-analysis for haemoglobin and 15 (nine interventions; 1396 women) for serum ferritin. The risk of bias varied across the trials contributing to network meta-analysis, with 22 of 30 trials in the network meta-analysis for haemoglobin judged to have a high or medium global risk of bias. Compared with oral ferrous sulfate, intravenous iron sucrose improved both haemoglobin (mean difference 7·17 g/L, 95% CI 2·62-11·73; seven trials) and serum ferritin (mean difference 49·66 μg/L, 13·63-85·69; four trials), and intravenous ferric carboxymaltose improved haemoglobin (mean difference 8·52 g/L, 0·51-16·53; one trial). The evidence for other interventions compared with ferrous sulfate was insufficient. The most common side-effects with oral iron preparations were gastrointestinal effects (nausea, vomiting, and altered bowel movements). Side-effects were less common with parenteral iron preparations, although these included local pain, skin irratation, and, on rare occasions, allergic reactions.

INTERPRETATION

Iron preparations for treatment of iron deficiency anaemia in pregnancy vary in effectiveness, with good evidence of benefit for intravenous iron sucrose and some evidence for intravenous ferric carboxymaltose. Clinicians and policy makers should consider the effectiveness of individual preparations before administration, to ensure effective treatment.

FUNDING

None.

Network meta-analysis of management of trigger thumb in children

To estimate and rank cure and recurrence rates between conservative and operative treatments for trigger thumb in children. A systematic review was conducted by searching PubMed and Scopus. Eligible criteria were comparative studies included non-syndromic trigger thumbs, aged up to 10 years, reported at least 20 thumbs and followed up at least 12 months. Two assessors independently extracted data and appraised for cure, recurrence rates among observation, stretching, splinting, open surgery, and percutaneous surgery. We assessed the risk of bias in non-randomized studies of interventions. A network meta-analysis, and probability of being the best outcomes were estimated with surface under the cumulative ranking curves (SUCRA). From 6853 searched articles, eight studies (799 children and 981 thumbs) were included. Mean age was 1.87-2.83 years and average followed up time was 1-5.7 years. Open surgery, percutaneous release, splinting, and stretching had higher cure rate than observation; pooled risk ratio (95% confidence interval) of 2.06 (1.53-2.78), 1.79 (1.26-2.53), 1.76 (1.30-2.36), and 1.37 (0.93-2.03), respectively. Percutaneous release increased risk of recurrence 3.29 times (1.42-7.60) when compared with open surgery. The best cure rates were open surgery (SUCRA = 95) followed by splint (SUCRA = 63.4), and percutaneous technique (SUCRA= 62.8). The highest recurrence rates were percutaneous (SUCRA = 97.3), and open surgery (SUCRA = 62.4). Splint is the most appropriate intervention for pediatric trigger thumb. After failed conservative methods, open surgery is considered for operative treatment. Level of evidence: Therapeutic study level II-III.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, intravenous fluids, pancreatic stents, or their combinations for the prevention of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), intravenous fluid, pancreatic stents, or combinations of these have been evaluated in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) for the prevention of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis, but the comparative efficacy of these treatments remains unclear. Our aim was to do an exploratory network meta-analysis of previous RCTs to systematically compare the direct and indirect evidence and rank NSAIDs, intravenous fluids, pancreatic stents, or combinations of these to determine the most efficacious method of prophylaxis for post-ERCP pancreatitis.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register from inception to Nov 15, 2020, for full-text RCTs that evaluated the efficacy of NSAIDs, pancreatic stents, intravenous fluids, or combinations of these for post-ERCP pancreatitis prevention in adult (aged ≥18 years) patients undergoing ERCP. Summary data from intention-to-treat analyses were extracted from published reports. We analysed incidence of post-ERCP pancreatitis across studies using network meta-analysis under the frequentist framework, obtaining pairwise odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs. We used the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system for the confidence rating. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020172606.

FINDINGS

We identified 1503 studies, of which 55 RCTs evaluating 20 interventions in 17 062 patients were included in the network meta-analysis. The mean incidence of post-ERCP pancreatitis in the placebo or active control group was 12·2% (95% CI 11·4-13·0). Normal saline plus rectal indometacin (OR 0·02, 95% CI 0·00-0·40), intramuscular diclofenac 75 mg (0·24, 0·09-0·69), intravenous high-volume Ringer's lactate plus rectal diclofenac 100 mg (0·30, 0·16-0·55), intravenous high-volume Ringer's lactate (0·31, 0·12-0·78), 5-7 Fr pancreatic stents (0·35, 0·26-0·48), rectal diclofenac 100 mg (0·36, 0·25-0·52), 3 Fr pancreatic stents (0·47, 0·26-0·87), and rectal indometacin 100 mg (0·60, 0·50-0·73) were all more efficacious than placebo for preventing post-ERCP pancreatitis in pairwise comparisons. 5-7 Fr pancreatic stents (0·59, 0·41-0·84), intravenous high-volume Ringer's lactate plus rectal diclofenac 100 mg (0·49, 0·26-0·94), intravenous standard-volume normal saline plus rectal indometacin 100 mg (0·04, 0·00-0·66), and rectal diclofenac 100 mg (0·59, 0·40-0·89) were more efficacious than rectal indometacin 100 mg. The GRADE confidence rating was low to moderate for 98·3% of the pairwise comparisons.

INTERPRETATION

This systematic review and network meta-analysis summarises the available literature on NSAIDs, pancreatic stents, intravenous fluids, or combinations of these for prophylaxis of post-ERCP pancreatitis. Rectal diclofenac 100 mg is the best performing rectal NSAID in this network meta-analysis. Combinations of prophylaxis might be more effective, but there is little evidence. These findings help to establish prophylaxis of post-ERCP pancreatitis for future research and practice, and could reduce costs and increase adoption of prophylaxis.

FUNDING

None.

Complications of Cranioplasty in Relation to Material: Systematic Review, Network Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regression

BACKGROUND

Cranioplasty is a ubiquitous neurosurgical procedure consisting of reconstruction of a pre-existing calvarial defect. Many materials are available, including polymethylmethacrylate in hand-moulded (hPMMA) and prefabricated (pPMMA) form, hydroxyapatite (HA), polyetheretherketone (PEEK) and titanium (Ti).

OBJECTIVE

To perform a network meta-analysis (NMA) to assess the relationship between materials and complications of cranioplasty.

METHODS

PubMed/MEDLINE, Google Scholar, EMBASE, Scopus, and The Cochrane Library were searched from January 1, 1990 to February 14, 2021. Studies detailing rates of any of infections, implant exposure, or revision surgery were included. A frequentist NMA was performed for each complication. Risk ratios (RRs) with 95% CIs were calculated for each material pair.

RESULTS

A total of 3620 abstracts were screened and 31 full papers were included. Surgical revision was reported in 18 studies and occurred in 316/2032 cases (14%; 95% CI 11-17). PEEK had the lowest risk of re-operation with a rate of 8/157 (5%; 95% CI 0-11) in 5 studies, superior to autografts (RR 0.20; 95% CI 0.07-0.57), hPMMA (RR 0.20; 95% CI 0.07-0.60), Ti (RR 0.39; 95% CI 0.17-0.92), and pPMMA (RR 0.14; 95% CI 0.04-0.51). Revision rate was 131/684 (19%; 95% CI 13-25; 10 studies) in autografts, 61/317 (18%; 95%CI 9-28; 7 studies) in hPMMA, 84/599 (13%; 95% CI 7-19; 11 studies) in Ti, 7/59 (9%; 95% CI 1-23; 3 studies) in pPMMA, and 25/216 (12%; 95% CI 4-24; 4 studies) in HA. Infection occurred in 463/4667 (8%; 95% CI 6-11) and implant exposure in 120/1651 (6%; 95% CI 4-9).

CONCLUSION

PEEK appears to have the lowest risk of cranioplasty revision, but further research is required to determine the optimal material.

Dismantling, optimising, and personalising internet cognitive behavioural therapy for depression: a systematic review and component network meta-analysis using individual participant data

BACKGROUND

Internet cognitive behavioural therapy (iCBT) is a viable delivery format of CBT for depression. However, iCBT programmes include training in a wide array of cognitive and behavioural skills via different delivery methods, and it remains unclear which of these components are more efficacious and for whom.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and individual participant data component network meta-analysis (cNMA) of iCBT trials for depression. We searched PubMed, PsycINFO, Embase, and the Cochrane Library for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) published from database inception to Jan 1, 2019, that compared any form of iCBT against another or a control condition in the acute treatment of adults (aged ≥18 years) with depression. Studies with inpatients or patients with bipolar depression were excluded. We sought individual participant data from the original authors. When these data were unavailable, we used aggregate data. Two independent researchers identified the included components. The primary outcome was depression severity, expressed as incremental mean difference (iMD) in the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) scores when a component is added to a treatment. We developed a web app that estimates relative efficacies between any two combinations of components, given baseline patient characteristics. This study is registered in PROSPERO, CRD42018104683.

FINDINGS

We identified 76 RCTs, including 48 trials contributing individual participant data (11 704 participants) and 28 trials with aggregate data (6474 participants). The participants' weighted mean age was 42·0 years and 12 406 (71%) of 17 521 reported were women. There was suggestive evidence that behavioural activation might be beneficial (iMD -1·83 [95% credible interval (CrI) -2·90 to -0·80]) and that relaxation might be harmful (1·20 [95% CrI 0·17 to 2·27]). Baseline severity emerged as the strongest prognostic factor for endpoint depression. Combining human and automated encouragement reduced dropouts from treatment (incremental odds ratio, 0·32 [95% CrI 0·13 to 0·93]). The risk of bias was low for the randomisation process, missing outcome data, or selection of reported results in most of the included studies, uncertain for deviation from intended interventions, and high for measurement of outcomes. There was moderate to high heterogeneity among the studies and their components.

INTERPRETATION

The individual patient data cNMA revealed potentially helpful, less helpful, or harmful components and delivery formats for iCBT packages. iCBT packages aiming to be effective and efficient might choose to include beneficial components and exclude ones that are potentially detrimental. Our web app can facilitate shared decision making by therapist and patient in choosing their preferred iCBT package.

FUNDING

Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.

Classifying information-sharing methods

BACKGROUND

Sparse relative effectiveness evidence is a frequent problem in Health Technology Assessment (HTA). Where evidence directly pertaining to the decision problem is sparse, it may be feasible to expand the evidence-base to include studies that relate to the decision problem only indirectly: for instance, when there is no evidence on a comparator, evidence on other treatments of the same molecular class could be used; similarly, a decision on children may borrow-strength from evidence on adults. Usually, in HTA, such indirect evidence is either included by ignoring any differences ('lumping') or not included at all ('splitting'). However, a range of more sophisticated methods exists, primarily in the biostatistics literature. The objective of this study is to identify and classify the breadth of the available information-sharing methods.

METHODS

Forwards and backwards citation-mining techniques were used on a set of seminal papers on the topic of information-sharing. Papers were included if they specified (network) meta-analytic methods for combining information from distinct populations, interventions, outcomes or study-designs.

RESULTS

Overall, 89 papers were included. A plethora of evidence synthesis methods have been used for information-sharing. Most papers (n=79) described methods that shared information on relative treatment effects. Amongst these, there was a strong emphasis on methods for information-sharing across multiple outcomes (n=42) and treatments (n=25), with fewer papers focusing on study-designs (n=23) or populations (n=8). We categorise and discuss the methods under four 'core' relationships of information-sharing: functional, exchangeability-based, prior-based and multivariate relationships, and explain the assumptions made within each of these core approaches.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the range of information-sharing methods available. These methods often impose more moderate assumptions than lumping or splitting. Hence, the degree of information-sharing that they impose could potentially be considered more appropriate. Our identification of four 'core' methods of information-sharing allows for an improved understanding of the assumptions underpinning the different methods. Further research is required to understand how the methods differ in terms of the strength of sharing they impose and the implications of this for health care decisions.

Methodological approaches for analysing data from therapeutic efficacy studies

Several anti-malarial drugs have been evaluated in randomized clinical trials to treat acute uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. The outcome of anti-malarial drug efficacy studies is classified into one of four possible outcomes defined by the World Health Organization: adequate clinical and parasitological response, late parasitological failure, late clinical failure, early treatment failure. These four ordered categories are ordinal data, which are reduced to either a binary outcome (i.e., treatment success and treatment failure) to calculate the proportions of treatment failure or to time-to-event outcome for KaplanMeier survival analysis. The arbitrary transition from 4-level ordered categories to 2-level type categories results in a loss of statistical power. In the opinion of the authors, this outcome can be considered as ordinal at a fixed endpoint or at longitudinal endpoints. Alternative statistical methods can be applied to 4-level ordinal categories of therapeutic response to optimize data exploitation. Furthermore, network meta-analysis is useful not only for direct comparison of drugs which were evaluated together in a randomized design, but also for indirect comparison of different artemisinin-based combinations across different clinical studies using a common drug comparator, with the aim to determine the ranking order of drug efficacy. Previous works conducted in Cameroonian children served as data source to illustrate the feasibility of these novel statistical approaches. Data analysis based on ordinal end-point may be helpful to gain further insight into anti-malarial drug efficacy.

Treatment options for progression or recurrence of glioblastoma: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Glioblastoma (GBM) is a highly malignant brain tumour that almost inevitably progresses or recurs after first line standard of care. There is no consensus regarding the best treatment/s to offer people upon disease progression or recurrence. For the purposes of this review, progression and recurrence are considered as one entity.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effectiveness of further treatment/s for first and subsequent progression or recurrence of glioblastoma (GBM) among people who have received the standard of care (Stupp protocol) for primary treatment of the disease; and to prepare a brief economic commentary on the available evidence.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE and Embase electronic databases from 2005 to December 2019 and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, in the Cochrane Library; Issue 12, 2019). Economic searches included the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED) up to 2015 (database closure) and MEDLINE and Embase from 2015 to December 2019.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and comparative non-randomised studies (NRSs) evaluating effectiveness of treatments for progressive/recurrent GBM. Eligible studies included people with progressive or recurrent GBM who had received first line radiotherapy with concomitant and adjuvant temozolomide (TMZ).

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently selected studies and extracted data to a pre-designed data extraction form. We conducted network meta-analyses (NMA) and ranked treatments according to effectiveness for each outcome using the random-effects model and Stata software (version 15). We rated the certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 42 studies: these comprised 34 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and 8 non-randomised studies (NRSs) involving 5236 participants. We judged most RCTs to be at a low risk of bias and NRSs at high risk of bias. Interventions included chemotherapy, re-operation, re-irradiation and novel therapies either used alone or in combination. For first recurrence, we included 11 interventions in the network meta-analysis (NMA) for overall survival (OS), and eight in the NMA for progression-free survival (PFS). Lomustine (LOM; also known as CCNU) was the most common comparator and was used as the reference treatment. No studies in the NMA evaluated surgery, re-irradiation, PCV (procarbazine, lomustine, vincristine), TMZ re-challenge or best supportive care. We could not perform NMA for second or later recurrence due to insufficient data. Quality-of-life data were sparse. First recurrence (NMA findings) Median OS across included studies in the NMA ranged from 5.5 to 12.6 months and median progression-free survival (PFS) ranged from 1.5 months to 4.2 months. We found no high-certainty evidence that any treatments tested were better than lomustine. These treatments included the following. Bevacizumab plus lomustine: Evidence suggested probably little or no difference in OS between bevacizumab (BEV) combined with lomustine (LOM) and LOM monotherapy (hazard ratio (HR) 0.91, 0.75 to 1.10; moderate-certainty evidence), although BEV + LOM may improve PFS (HR 0.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.44 to 0.74; low-certainty evidence). Bevacizumab monotherapy: Low-certainty evidence suggested there may be little or no difference in OS (HR 1.22, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.76) and PFS (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.58 to 1.38; low-certainty evidence) between BEV and LOM monotherapies; more evidence on BEV is needed. Regorafenib (REG): REG may improve OS compared with LOM (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.76; low-certainty evidence). Evidence on PFS was very low certainty and more evidence on REG is needed. Temozolomide (TMZ) plus Depatux-M (ABT414): For OS, low-certainty evidence suggested that TMZ plus ABT414 may be more effective than LOM (HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.92) and may be more effective than BEV (HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.89; low-certainty evidence). This may be due to the TMZ component only and more evidence is needed. Fotemustine (FOM): FOM and LOM may have similar effects on OS (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.51 to 1.57, low-certainty evidence). Bevacizumab and irinotecan (IRI): Evidence on BEV + irinotecan (IRI) versus LOM for both OS and PFS is very uncertain and there is probably little or no difference between BEV + IRI versus BEV monotherapy (OS: HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.70 to 1.30; moderate-certainty evidence). When treatments were ranked for OS, FOM ranked first, BEV + LOM second, LOM third, BEV + IRI fourth, and BEV fifth. Ranking does not take into account the certainty of the evidence, which also suggests there may be little or no difference between FOM and LOM. Other treatments Three studies evaluated re-operation versus no re-operation, with or without re-irradiation and chemotherapy, and these suggested possible survival advantages with re-operation within the context of being able to select suitable candidates for re-operation. A cannabinoid treatment in the early stages of evaluation, in combination with TMZ, merits further evaluation. Second or later recurrence Limited evidence from three heterogeneous studies suggested that radiotherapy with or without BEV may have a beneficial effect on survival but more evidence is needed. Evidence was insufficient to draw conclusions about the best radiotherapy dosage. Other evidence suggested that there may be little difference in survival with tumour-treating fields compared with physician's best choice of treatment. We found no reliable evidence on best supportive care. Severe adverse events (SAEs) The BEV+LOM combination was associated with significantly greater risk of SAEs than LOM monotherapy (RR 2.51, 95% CI 1.72 to 3.66, high-certainty evidence), and ranked joint worst with cediranib + LOM (RR 2.51, 95% CI 1.29 to 4.90; high-certainty evidence). LOM ranked best and REG ranked second best. Adding novel treatments to BEV was generally associated with a higher risk of severe adverse events compared with BEV alone.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

For treatment of first recurrence of GBM, among people previously treated with surgery and standard chemoradiotherapy, the combination treatments evaluated did not improve overall survival compared with LOM monotherapy and were often associated with a higher risk of severe adverse events. Limited evidence suggested that re-operation with or without re-irradiation and chemotherapy may be suitable for selected candidates. Evidence on second recurrence is sparse. Re-irradiation with or without bevacizumab may be of value in selected individuals, but more evidence is needed.

Effectiveness of local hemostatic to prevent bleeding in dental patients on anticoagulation: A systematic review and network meta-analysis

This study aimed to determine the effectiveness of hemostatic protocols to prevent bleeding in dental procedures among individuals undergoing oral anticoagulation therapy. A systematic review and network meta-analysis were accomplished. Searches of literature and grey literature were performed in different electronic databases. Clinical trials were considered as part of the inclusion criteria. Data extraction and assessment of the risk of bias of the included articles were performed. Assessment of the certainty of evidence was also performed. As results we find that the N-butyl-2-cyanoacrylate [RR -35.00 (95% CI - 107.12, -5.78)], calcium sulfate (CaSO₄) [RR -5.62 (95% CI -11.41, -1.03)], and tranexamic acid (TXA) [RR -3.46 (95% CI -7.63, -0.77)] showed beneficial effects compared to placebo. However, only TXA presented beneficial effects with moderate certainty evidence. N-butyl-2-cyanoacrylate and CaSO₄ presented very low certainty evidence. In the comparisons between the hemostatic agents, no differences were observed. For the mean bleeding time, no significant difference in the comparisons was observed as well. Concluding, bleeding events in individuals on oral anticoagulation decreased with the use of TXA compared to placebo. N-butyl-2-cyanoacrylate and CaSO₄ were also superior to placebo, but the certainty of evidence was low. For the mean bleeding time, no significant difference in hemostatic agents was observed.

Ticagrelor vs Clopidogrel in addition to Aspirin in minor ischemic stroke/ transient ischemic attack-Protocol for a systematic review and network meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Patients with minor ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack represent a high-risk population for recurrent stroke. No direct comparison exists comparing dual antiplatelet therapy regimens-namely, Ticagrelor and Aspirin versus Clopidogrel and Aspirin. This systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) will examine the efficacy of these two different antiplatelet regimens in preventing recurrent stroke and mortality up to 30 days.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) will be searched with the assistance of a medical information specialist. Two independent reviewers will screen studies for inclusion; eligible studies will include randomized controlled trials that enrolled adults presenting with acute minor ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack and compared one or more of the interventions against each other and/or a control. The primary outcomes will be recurrent ischemic stroke up to 30 days from symptom onset. Secondary outcomes will include safety outcomes (I.e. major bleeding and mortality), functional disability, and outcomes up to 90 days from symptom onset. A Bayesian approach to NMA will be implemented using the BUGSnet function in R Software. Between group comparisons for time-to-event (TTE) and dichotomous outcomes will be presented in terms of hazard ratios and odds ratios with 95% credible intervals, respectively. Secondary effect measures of treatment ranking will also be estimated.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

No formal research ethics approval are necessary. We will disseminate our findings through scientific conference presentations, peer-reviewed publications, and social media/the press. The findings from this review will aid clinicians in decision-making on the choice of antithrombotic therapy in a high-risk stroke population and could be important in the development of future treatment trials and guidelines. Registration ID with Open Science Framework: 10.17605/OSF.IO/XDJYZ.

Role of progesterone, cerclage and pessary in preventing preterm birth in twin pregnancies: A systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine the role of progesterone, pessary and cervical cerclage in reducing the risk of (preterm birth) PTB in twin pregnancies and compare these interventions using pairwise and network meta-analysis.

STUDY DESIGN

Medline, Embase, CINAHL and Cochrane databases were explored. The inclusion criteria were studies in which twin pregnancies were randomized to an intervention for the prevention of PTB (any type of progesterone, cervical cerclage, cervical pessary, or any combination of these) or to a control group (e.g. placebo or treatment as usual). Interventions of interest were either progesterone [vaginal or oral natural progesterone or intramuscular 17a-hydroxyprogesterone caproate (17-OHPC)], cerclage (McDonald or Shirodkar), or cervical pessary. The primary outcome was PTB < 34 weeks of gestation. Both primary and secondary outcomes were explored in an unselected population of twin pregnancies and in women at higher risk of PTB (defined as those with cervical length <25 mm). Random-effect head-to-head and a multiple-treatment meta-analyses were used to analyze the data and results expressed as risk ratios.

RESULTS

26 studies were included in the meta-analysis. When considering an unselected population of twin pregnancies, vaginal progesterone, intra-muscular17-OHPC or pessary did not reduce the risk of PTB < 34 weeks of gestation (all p > 0.05). When stratifying the analysis for spontaneous PTB, neither pessary, vaginal or intramuscular 17-OHPC were associated with a significant reduction in the risk of PTB compared to controls (all p > 0.05), while there was no study on cerclage which explored this outcome in an unselected population of twin pregnancies. When considering twin pregnancies with short cervical length (≤25 mm), there was no contribution of either pessary, vaginal progesterone, intra-muscular 17-OHPC or cerclage in reducing the risk of overall PTB < 34 weeks of gestation.

CONCLUSIONS

Cervical pessary, progesterone and cerclage do not show a significant effect in reducing the rate of PTB or perinatal morbidity in twins, either when these interventions are applied to an unselected population of twins or in pregnancies with a short cervix.

Internet-Based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Depression: A Systematic Review and Individual Patient Data Network Meta-analysis

Importance

Personalized treatment choices would increase the effectiveness of internet-based cognitive behavioral therapy (iCBT) for depression to the extent that patients differ in interventions that better suit them.

Objective

To provide personalized estimates of short-term and long-term relative efficacy of guided and unguided iCBT for depression using patient-level information.

Data Sources

We searched PubMed, Embase, PsycInfo, and Cochrane Library to identify randomized clinical trials (RCTs) published up to January 1, 2019.

Study Selection

Eligible RCTs were those comparing guided or unguided iCBT against each other or against any control intervention in individuals with depression. Available individual patient data (IPD) was collected from all eligible studies. Depression symptom severity was assessed after treatment, 6 months, and 12 months after randomization.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

We conducted a systematic review and IPD network meta-analysis and estimated relative treatment effect sizes across different patient characteristics through IPD network meta-regression.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) scores.

Results

Of 42 eligible RCTs, 39 studies comprising 9751 participants with depression contributed IPD to the IPD network meta-analysis, of which 8107 IPD were synthesized. Overall, both guided and unguided iCBT were associated with more effectiveness as measured by PHQ-9 scores than control treatments over the short term and the long term. Guided iCBT was associated with more effectiveness than unguided iCBT (mean difference [MD] in posttreatment PHQ-9 scores, -0.8; 95% CI, -1.4 to -0.2), but we found no evidence of a difference at 6 or 12 months following randomization. Baseline depression was found to be the most important modifier of the relative association for efficacy of guided vs unguided iCBT. Differences between unguided and guided iCBT in people with baseline symptoms of subthreshold depression (PHQ-9 scores 5-9) were small, while guided iCBT was associated with overall better outcomes in patients with baseline PHQ-9 greater than 9.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this network meta-analysis with IPD, guided iCBT was associated with more effectiveness than unguided iCBT for individuals with depression, benefits were more substantial in individuals with moderate to severe depression. Unguided iCBT was associated with similar effectiveness among individuals with symptoms of mild/subthreshold depression. Personalized treatment selection is entirely possible and necessary to ensure the best allocation of treatment resources for depression.

Comparative efficacy and acceptability of expressive writing treatments compared with psychotherapy, other writing treatments, and waiting list control for adult trauma survivors: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Expressive writing about a traumatic event is promising in treating posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms in adult trauma survivors. To date, the comparative efficacy and acceptability of this approach is uncertain. Therefore, we aimed to examine the comparative efficacy and acceptability of expressive writing treatments.

METHODS

We included 44 RCTs with 7724 participants contributing 54 direct comparisons between expressive writing (EW), enhanced writing (i.e. including additional therapist contact or individualized writing assignments; EW+), PTSD psychotherapies (PT), neutral writing (NW), and waiting-list control (WL).

RESULTS

EW, EW+, PT, and NW were statistically significantly more efficacious than WL at the longest available follow-up, with SMDs (95% CI) of -0.78 (-1.10 to -0.46) for PT, -0.81 (-1.02 to -0.61) for EW+ , -0.43 (-0.65 to -0.21) for EW, and -0.37 (-0.61 to -0.14) for NW. We found small to moderate differences between the active treatments. At baseline mean PTSD severity was significantly lower in EW+ compared with WL. We found considerable heterogeneity and inconsistency and we found elevated risk of bias in at least one of the bias dimensions in all studies. When EW+-WL comparisons were excluded from the analyses EW+ was no longer superior compared with EW.

CONCLUSIONS

The summarized evidence confirms that writing treatments may contribute to improving PTSD symptoms in medium to long-term. Methodological issues in the available evidence hamper definite conclusions regarding the comparative efficacy and acceptability of writing treatments. Adequately sized comparative randomized controlled trials preferably including all four active treatment approaches, reporting long-term data, and including researchers with balanced preferences are needed.

A review of the quantitative effectiveness evidence synthesis methods used in public health intervention guidelines

BACKGROUND

The complexity of public health interventions create challenges in evaluating their effectiveness. There have been huge advancements in quantitative evidence synthesis methods development (including meta-analysis) for dealing with heterogeneity of intervention effects, inappropriate 'lumping' of interventions, adjusting for different populations and outcomes and the inclusion of various study types. Growing awareness of the importance of using all available evidence has led to the publication of guidance documents for implementing methods to improve decision making by answering policy relevant questions.

METHODS

The first part of this paper reviews the methods used to synthesise quantitative effectiveness evidence in public health guidelines by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) that had been published or updated since the previous review in 2012 until the 19th August 2019.The second part of this paper provides an update of the statistical methods and explains how they address issues related to evaluating effectiveness evidence of public health interventions.

RESULTS

The proportion of NICE public health guidelines that used a meta-analysis as part of the synthesis of effectiveness evidence has increased since the previous review in 2012 from 23% (9 out of 39) to 31% (14 out of 45). The proportion of NICE guidelines that synthesised the evidence using only a narrative review decreased from 74% (29 out of 39) to 60% (27 out of 45).An application in the prevention of accidents in children at home illustrated how the choice of synthesis methods can enable more informed decision making by defining and estimating the effectiveness of more distinct interventions, including combinations of intervention components, and identifying subgroups in which interventions are most effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite methodology development and the publication of guidance documents to address issues in public health intervention evaluation since the original review, NICE public health guidelines are not making full use of meta-analysis and other tools that would provide decision makers with fuller information with which to develop policy. There is an evident need to facilitate the translation of the synthesis methods into a public health context and encourage the use of methods to improve decision making.

Adjunctive Psychotherapy for Bipolar Disorder: A Systematic Review and Component Network Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Several psychotherapy protocols have been evaluated as adjuncts to pharmacotherapy for patients with bipolar disorder, but little is known about their comparative effectiveness.

OBJECTIVE

To use systematic review and network meta-analysis to compare the association of using manualized psychotherapies and therapy components with reducing recurrences and stabilizing symptoms in patients with bipolar disorder.

DATA SOURCES

Major bibliographic databases (MEDLINE, PsychInfo, and Cochrane Library of Systematic Reviews) and trial registries were searched from inception to June 1, 2019, for randomized clinical trials of psychotherapy for bipolar disorder.

STUDY SELECTION

Of 3255 abstracts, 39 randomized clinical trials were identified that compared pharmacotherapy plus manualized psychotherapy (cognitive behavioral therapy, family or conjoint therapy, interpersonal therapy, or psychoeducational therapy) with pharmacotherapy plus a control intervention (eg, supportive therapy or treatment as usual) for patients with bipolar disorder.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Binary outcomes (recurrence and study retention) were compared across treatments using odds ratios (ORs). For depression or mania severity scores, data were pooled and compared across treatments using standardized mean differences (SMDs) (Hedges-adjusted g using weighted pooled SDs). In component network meta-analyses, the incremental effectiveness of 13 specific therapy components was examined.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was illness recurrence. Secondary outcomes were depressive and manic symptoms at 12 months and acceptability of treatment (study retention).

RESULTS

A total of 39 randomized clinical trials with 3863 participants (2247 of 3693 [60.8%] with data on sex were female; mean [SD] age, 36.5 [8.2] years) were identified. Across 20 two-group trials that provided usable information, manualized treatments were associated with lower recurrence rates than control treatments (OR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.43-0.74). Psychoeducation with guided practice of illness management skills in a family or group format was associated with reducing recurrences vs the same strategies in an individual format (OR, 0.12; 95% CI, 0.02-0.94). Cognitive behavioral therapy (SMD, -0.32; 95% CI, -0.64 to -0.01) and, with less certainty, family or conjoint therapy (SMD, -0.46; 95% CI, -1.01 to 0.08) and interpersonal therapy (SMD, -0.46; 95% CI, -1.07 to 0.15) were associated with stabilizing depressive symptoms compared with treatment as usual. Higher study retention was associated with family or conjoint therapy (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.26-0.82) and brief psychoeducation (OR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.23-0.85) compared with standard psychoeducation.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study suggests that outpatients with bipolar disorder may benefit from skills-based psychosocial interventions combined with pharmacotherapy. Conclusions are tempered by heterogeneity in populations, treatment duration, and follow-up.

Network meta-analysis on the comparative efficacy of family interventions for psychotic disorders: a protocol

INTRODUCTION

Family interventions are effective and are strongly recommended for psychotic disorders. However, there is a variety of intervention types, and their differential efficacy is widely unclear. The aim of the planned network meta-analysis (NMA) is to compare the efficacy of family interventions that differ in content (eg, psychoeducation, mutual support, skills training) and format (eg, number of sessions, inclusion of patients, form of delivery).

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will include randomised controlled trials comparing psychosocial interventions directed at the adult relatives, friends or non-professional carers of people with a diagnosis of a psychotic disorder (schizophrenia spectrum) to any kind of control condition. The main outcomes will be global clinical state for the patients and coping with psychosis as well as attitudes towards psychosis for the relatives. Additional outcomes will be severity of symptoms, functioning, burden and compliance/drop-out. We conducted a comprehensive search of Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE(R), PsycINFO, Cumulative Index to Nursing & Allied Health Literature (8 August 2019) and reference lists of review articles. Full-text assessment of eligibility, data extraction and risk-of-bias assessment will be done by two independent reviewers. An NMA will be conducted for any of the planned outcomes and intervention characteristics for which sufficient and appropriate data are available. The analyses will make use of a random effects model within a frequentist framework. Estimates for all pairwise treatment effects will be obtained using standardised mean differences for continuous outcomes and risk ratios for dichotomous outcomes. Interventions will be ranked according to their relative efficacy. We will address the assumption of transitivity, heterogeneity and inconsistency using theoretical and statistical approaches. The possibility of publication bias and the strength of evidence will also be examined.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

There are no ethical concerns. Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at practitioners' conferences.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020148728.

Intraoperative imaging technology to maximise extent of resection for glioma: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Multiple studies have identified the prognostic relevance of extent of resection in the management of glioma. Different intraoperative technologies have emerged in recent years with unknown comparative efficacy in optimising extent of resection. One previous Cochrane Review provided low- to very low-certainty evidence in single trial analyses and synthesis of results was not possible. The role of intraoperative technology in maximising extent of resection remains uncertain. Due to the multiple complementary technologies available, this research question is amenable to a network meta-analysis methodological approach.

OBJECTIVES

To establish the comparative effectiveness and risk profile of specific intraoperative imaging technologies using a network meta-analysis and to identify cost analyses and economic evaluations as part of a brief economic commentary.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL (2020, Issue 5), MEDLINE via Ovid to May week 2 2020, and Embase via Ovid to 2020 week 20. We performed backward searching of all identified studies. We handsearched two journals, Neuro-oncology and the Journal of Neuro-oncology from 1990 to 2019 including all conference abstracts. Finally, we contacted recognised experts in neuro-oncology to identify any additional eligible studies and acquire information on ongoing randomised controlled trials (RCTs).

SELECTION CRITERIA

RCTs evaluating people of all ages with presumed new or recurrent glial tumours (of any location or histology) from clinical examination and imaging (computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), or both). Additional imaging modalities (e.g. positron emission tomography, magnetic resonance spectroscopy) were not mandatory. Interventions included fluorescence-guided surgery, intraoperative ultrasound, neuronavigation (with or without additional image processing, e.g. tractography), and intraoperative MRI.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed the search results for relevance, undertook critical appraisal according to known guidelines, and extracted data using a prespecified pro forma.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified four RCTs, using different intraoperative imaging technologies: intraoperative magnetic resonance imaging (iMRI) (2 trials, with 58 and 14 participants); fluorescence-guided surgery with 5-aminolevulinic acid (5-ALA) (1 trial, 322 participants); and neuronavigation (1 trial, 45 participants). We identified one ongoing trial assessing iMRI with a planned sample size of 304 participants for which results are expected to be published around winter 2020. We identified no published trials for intraoperative ultrasound. Network meta-analyses or traditional meta-analyses were not appropriate due to absence of homogeneous trials across imaging technologies. Of the included trials, there was notable heterogeneity in tumour location and imaging technologies utilised in control arms. There were significant concerns regarding risk of bias in all the included studies. One trial of iMRI found increased extent of resection (risk ratio (RR) for incomplete resection was 0.13, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02 to 0.96; 49 participants; very low-certainty evidence) and one trial of 5-ALA (RR for incomplete resection was 0.55, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.71; 270 participants; low-certainty evidence). The other trial assessing iMRI was stopped early after an unplanned interim analysis including 14 participants; therefore, the trial provided very low-quality evidence. The trial of neuronavigation provided insufficient data to evaluate the effects on extent of resection. Reporting of adverse events was incomplete and suggestive of significant reporting bias (very low-certainty evidence). Overall, the proportion of reported events was low in most trials and, therefore, issues with power to detect differences in outcomes that may or may not have been present. Survival outcomes were not adequately reported, although one trial reported no evidence of improvement in overall survival with 5-ALA (hazard ratio (HR) 0.82, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.07; 270 participants; low-certainty evidence). Data for quality of life were only available for one study and there was significant attrition bias (very low-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Intraoperative imaging technologies, specifically 5-ALA and iMRI, may be of benefit in maximising extent of resection in participants with high-grade glioma. However, this is based on low- to very low-certainty evidence. Therefore, the short- and long-term neurological effects are uncertain. Effects of image-guided surgery on overall survival, progression-free survival, and quality of life are unclear. Network and traditional meta-analyses were not possible due to the identified high risk of bias, heterogeneity, and small trials included in this review. A brief economic commentary found limited economic evidence for the equivocal use of iMRI compared with conventional surgery. In terms of costs, one non-systematic review of economic studies suggested that, compared with standard surgery, use of image-guided surgery has an uncertain effect on costs and that 5-ALA was more costly. Further research, including completion of ongoing trials of ultrasound-guided surgery, is needed.

Quantitative Evidence Synthesis Methods for the Assessment of the Effectiveness of Treatment Sequences for Clinical and Economic Decision Making: A Review and Taxonomy of Simplifying Assumptions

Sequential use of alternative treatments for chronic conditions represents a complex intervention pathway; previous treatment and patient characteristics affect both the choice and effectiveness of subsequent treatments. This paper critically explores the methods for quantitative evidence synthesis of the effectiveness of sequential treatment options within a health technology assessment (HTA) or similar process. It covers methods for developing summary estimates of clinical effectiveness or the clinical inputs for the cost-effectiveness assessment and can encompass any disease condition. A comprehensive review of current approaches is presented, which considers meta-analytic methods for assessing the clinical effectiveness of treatment sequences and decision-analytic modelling approaches used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatment sequences. Estimating the effectiveness of a sequence of treatments is not straightforward or trivial and is severely hampered by the limitations of the evidence base. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of sequences were often absent or very limited. In the absence of sufficient RCTs of whole sequences, there is no single best way to evaluate treatment sequences; however, some approaches could be re-used or adapted, sharing ideas across different disease conditions. Each has advantages and disadvantages, and is influenced by the evidence available, extent of treatment sequences (number of treatment lines or permutations), and complexity of the decision problem. Due to the scarcity of data, modelling studies applied simplifying assumptions to data on discrete treatments. A taxonomy for all possible assumptions was developed, providing a unique resource to aid the critique of existing decision-analytic models.

Comparing methods for estimating patient-specific treatment effects in individual patient data meta-analysis

Meta‐analysis of individual patient data (IPD) is increasingly used to synthesize data from multiple trials. IPD meta‐analysis offers several advantages over meta‐analyzing aggregate data, including the capacity to individualize treatment recommendations. Trials usually collect information on many patient characteristics. Some of these covariates may strongly interact with treatment (and thus be associated with treatment effect modification) while others may have little effect. It is currently unclear whether a systematic approach to the selection of treatment‐covariate interactions in an IPD meta‐analysis can lead to better estimates of patient‐specific treatment effects. We aimed to answer this question by comparing in simulations the standard approach to IPD meta‐analysis (no variable selection, all treatment‐covariate interactions included in the model) with six alternative methods: stepwise regression, and five regression methods that perform shrinkage on treatment‐covariate interactions, that is, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), ridge, adaptive LASSO, Bayesian LASSO, and stochastic search variable selection. Exploring a range of scenarios, we found that shrinkage methods performed well for both continuous and dichotomous outcomes, for a variety of settings. In most scenarios, these methods gave lower mean squared error of the patient‐specific treatment effect as compared with the standard approach and stepwise regression. We illustrate the application of these methods in two datasets from cardiology and psychiatry. We recommend that future IPD meta‐analysis that aim to estimate patient‐specific treatment effects using multiple effect modifiers should use shrinkage methods, whereas stepwise regression should be avoided.

Interventions to facilitate return to work in adults with chronic non-malignant pain: a protocol for a systematic review and network meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Work absenteeism due to chronic non-malignant pain (CNMP) is a major societal and individual cause of concern that requires effective treatments.

OBJECTIVE

We present a protocol for a systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) aiming to compare available interventions for return to work (RTW) in adults with CNMP.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

PubMed, Embase, PsycINFO, Web of Knowledge and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases will be searched till 31 August 2020 for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) examining interventions for RTW outcomes among patients with CNMP. Two independent investigators will search the databases, perform data extraction and assess the methodological quality of the selected RCTs. The primary outcome will be RTW, if possible, full-time or part-time after work absence due to chronic pain from baseline to the last available follow-up. Secondary outcomes will include self-reported workability or work capacity, or self-reported physical functioning and quality of life as measured by any validated scale. Pairwise meta-analysis and NMA will be conducted for each outcome using a random-effects model. For the primary outcomes, we will also obtain the ranking of all competing interventions within each NMA using surface under the cumulative ranking curve. The assumption of coherence (ie, that direct and indirect evidence are in statistical agreement) will be examined using both a local and a global approach. We will also conduct subgroup and meta-regression analyses, whenever feasible, to investigate the unexplained variation in effect size. The comparison-adjusted funnel plot will be used to evaluate small-study effects. The overall quality of evidence will be rated with the Confidence in Network Meta-Analysis tool. Data analysis will be conducted using Stata V.16.0.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This systematic review does not require ethical approval since it will not disseminate any private patient data. The results of this study will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publication.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020171429.

Analgesic medicines for adults with low back pain: protocol for a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence for the comparative effectiveness of analgesic medicines for adults with low back pain. This systematic review and network meta-analysis aims to determine the analgesic effect, safety, acceptability, effect on function, and relative rank according to analgesic effect, safety, acceptability, and effect on function of a single course of [an] analgesic medicine(s) or combination of these medicines for people with low back pain.

METHODS

We will include published and unpublished randomised trials written in any language that compare an analgesic medicine to either another medicine, placebo/sham, or no intervention in adults with low back pain, grouped according to pain duration: acute (fewer than 6 weeks), sub-acute (6 to 12 weeks), and chronic (greater than 12 weeks). The co-primary outcomes are pain intensity following treatment and safety (adverse events). The secondary outcomes are function and acceptability (all-cause dropouts). We will perform a network meta-analysis to compare and rank analgesic medicines. We will form judgements of confidence in the results using the Confidence in Network Meta-Analysis (CINeMA) methodology.

DISCUSSION

This network meta-analysis will establish which medicine, or combination of medicines, is most effective for reducing pain and safest for adults with low back pain.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42019145257.

Safety and Outcomes of Different Surgical Techniques for Cubital Tunnel Decompression: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Cubital tunnel syndrome is the second most common compressive neuropathy, affecting 6% of the population. Numerous different operations are performed globally to treat it; however, prior conventional (pairwise) meta-analyses have been unable to determine which procedure is associated with the best outcomes and fewest complications.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate which operation for cubital tunnel syndrome is associated with the greatest likelihood of symptomatic cure.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, EMBASE, and CENTRAL were searched from database inception to March 2, 2019, with no restrictions on the setting or design of studies.

STUDY SELECTION

Experimental and observational studies directly comparing the outcomes of at least 2 surgical treatments for adults with primary cubital tunnel syndrome were included. Case reports were excluded, and when comparative studies had subgroups with 1 participant, the single-participant subgroup was excluded. The treatments had to be in situ decompression with or without medial epicondylectomy or an anterior subcutaneous, subfascial, intramuscular, or submuscular transposition. The access could be open, minimally invasive, or endoscopic. The comparator could be sham surgery or any operation mentioned earlier.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Data were extracted by 2 independent reviewers, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline and the PRISMA Network Meta-analysis extension statement. Network meta-analysis was used to estimate the relative efficacy and safety associated with interventions using relative risks. Surgical techniques were ranked by their probability of being the best (P score) and interpreted in terms of their clinical impact.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was response to treatment (ie, symptomatic improvement). The secondary outcomes were perioperative complications, reoperation, and recurrence.

RESULTS

A total of 30 studies of 2894 limbs undergoing 8 different operations were included. Across the studies, 56% of participants were men, the mean (SD) age was 48 (8) years, and patients had symptoms for a mean (SD) of 15 (7) months. Overall, 87% (95% CI, 92%-91%) of patients improved with surgery; all forms of in situ decompression were more effective than any type of transposition procedure; for example, open in situ decompression with epicondylectomy was associated with higher success rates than subcutaneous transposition (relative risk, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.01-1.25). Postoperatively, 3% (95% CI, 2%-4%) of patients developed complications, and in situ decompressions were ranked as the least risky, although there was considerable uncertainty in this outcome. Overall, 2% (95% CI, 1%-3%) of patients required reoperation; open in situ decompression was associated with the fewest reoperations; in comparison, submuscular transposition was associated with 5 times the risk of reoperation (relative risk, 5.08; 95% CI, 2.06-12.52). During surveillance, 3% (95% CI, 1%-4%) of patients developed recurrence, and open in situ decompression with epicondylectomy was ranked as the safest operation, although there was uncertainty in the estimates.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this network meta-analysis, open in situ decompression (with or without medial epicondylectomy) appeared to be the safest operation and also was associated with the best outcomes for patients with primary cubital tunnel syndrome. Future research should focus on better defining this disorder and developing core outcome measures.

A Bayesian multivariate meta-analysis of prevalence data

When conducting a meta-analysis involving prevalence data for an outcome with several subtypes, each of them is typically analyzed separately using a univariate meta-analysis model. Recently, multivariate meta-analysis models have been shown to correspond to a decrease in bias and variance for multiple correlated outcomes compared with univariate meta-analysis, when some studies only report a subset of the outcomes. In this article, we propose a novel Bayesian multivariate random effects model to account for the natural constraint that the prevalence of any given subtype cannot be larger than that of the overall prevalence. Extensive simulation studies show that this new model can reduce bias and variance when estimating subtype prevalences in the presence of missing data, compared with standard univariate and multivariate random effects models. The data from a rapid review on occupation and lower urinary tract symptoms by the Prevention of Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms Research Consortium are analyzed as a case study to estimate the prevalence of urinary incontinence and several incontinence subtypes among women in suspected high risk work environments.

Psychological interventions for chronic non-specific low back pain: protocol of a systematic review with network meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Psychological factors such as fear avoidance beliefs, depression, anxiety, catastrophic thinking and familial and social stress, have been associated with high disability levels in people with chronic low back pain (LBP). Guidelines endorse the integration of psychological interventions in the management of chronic LBP. However, uncertainty surrounds the comparative effectiveness of different psychological approaches. Network meta-analysis (NMA) allows comparison and ranking of numerous competing interventions for a given outcome of interest. Therefore, we will perform a systematic review with a NMA to determine which type of psychological intervention is most effective for adults with chronic non-specific LBP.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will search electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of Science, SCOPUS and CINAHL) from inception until 22 August 2019 for randomised controlled trials comparing psychological interventions to any comparison interventions in adults with chronic non-specific LBP. There will be no restriction on language. The primary outcomes will include physical function and pain intensity, and secondary outcomes will include health-related quality of life, fear avoidance, intervention compliance and safety. Risk of bias will be assessed using the Revised Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for randomised trials (RoB 2) tool and confidence in the evidence will be assessed using the Confidence in NMA (CINeMA) framework. We will conduct a random-effects NMA using a frequentist approach to estimate relative effects for all comparisons between treatments and rank treatments according to the mean rank and surface under the cumulative ranking curve values. All analyses will be performed in Stata.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

No ethical approval is required. The research will be published in a peer-reviewed journal.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42019138074.

The Comparative Efficacy of Chlorhexidine Gluconate and Povidone-iodine Antiseptics for the Prevention of Infection in Clean Surgery: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

There is uncertainty around preoperative skin antisepsis in clean surgery. Network meta-analysis provides more precise estimates than standard pairwise meta-analysis and can rank interventions by efficacy, to better inform clinical decisions.

BACKGROUND

Infection is the most common and costly complication of surgery. The relative efficacy of CHG and PVI based skin antiseptics in clean surgery remains unclear.

METHODS

We searched for randomized or nonrandomized studies comparing the effect of different preparations of CHG and PVI on the dichotomous outcome of surgical site infection. We included studies of adults undergoing clean surgery. We excluded studies concerning indwelling vascular catheters, blood sampling, combination antiseptics or sequential applications of different antiseptics. We performed a network meta-analysis to estimate the relative efficacy of interventions using relative risks (RR).

RESULTS

We included 17 studies comparing 5 antiseptics in 14,593 individuals. The overall rate of surgical site infection was 3%. Alcoholic CHG 4%-5% was ranked as the most effective antiseptic as it halved the risk of surgical site infection when compared to aqueous PVI [RR 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.24, 1.02)] and also to alcoholic PVI, although uncertainty was larger [RR 0.51 (95% confidence interval 0.21, 1.27)]. Adverse events related to antiseptic application were only observed with patients exposed to PVI.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcoholic formulations of 4%-5% CHG seem to be safe and twice as effective as PVI (alcoholic or aqueous solutions) in preventing infection after clean surgery in adults. Our findings concur with the literature on contaminated and clean-contaminated surgery, and endorse guidelines worldwide which advocate the use of alcoholic CHG for preoperative skin antisepsis.

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO ID CRD42018113001.

Agreement between ranking metrics in network meta-analysis: an empirical study

OBJECTIVE

To empirically explore the level of agreement of the treatment hierarchies from different ranking metrics in network meta-analysis (NMA) and to investigate how network characteristics influence the agreement.

DESIGN

Empirical evaluation from re-analysis of NMA.

DATA

232 networks of four or more interventions from randomised controlled trials, published between 1999 and 2015.

METHODS

We calculated treatment hierarchies from several ranking metrics: relative treatment effects, probability of producing the best value [Formula: see text] and the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA). We estimated the level of agreement between the treatment hierarchies using different measures: Kendall's τ and Spearman's ρ correlation; and the Yilmaz [Formula: see text] and Average Overlap, to give more weight to the top of the rankings. Finally, we assessed how the amount of the information present in a network affects the agreement between treatment hierarchies, using the average variance, the relative range of variance and the total sample size over the number of interventions of a network.

RESULTS

Overall, the pairwise agreement was high for all treatment hierarchies obtained by the different ranking metrics. The highest agreement was observed between SUCRA and the relative treatment effect for both correlation and top-weighted measures whose medians were all equal to 1. The agreement between rankings decreased for networks with less precise estimates and the hierarchies obtained from [Formula: see text] appeared to be the most sensitive to large differences in the variance estimates. However, such large differences were rare.

CONCLUSIONS

Different ranking metrics address different treatment hierarchy problems, however they produced similar rankings in the published networks. Researchers reporting NMA results can use the ranking metric they prefer, unless there are imprecise estimates or large imbalances in the variance estimates. In this case treatment hierarchies based on both probabilistic and non-probabilistic ranking metrics should be presented.

The Kilim plot: A tool for visualizing network meta-analysis results for multiple outcomes

Network meta‐analysis (NMA) can be used to compare multiple competing treatments for the same disease. In practice, usually a range of outcomes is of interest. As the number of outcomes increases, summarizing results from multiple NMAs becomes a nontrivial task, especially for larger networks. Moreover, NMAs provide results in terms of relative effect measures that can be difficult to interpret and apply in every‐day clinical practice, such as the odds ratios. In this article, we aim to facilitate the clinical decision‐making process by proposing a new graphical tool, the Kilim plot, for presenting results from NMA on multiple outcomes. Our plot compactly summarizes results on all treatments and all outcomes; it provides information regarding the strength of the statistical evidence of treatment effects, while it illustrates absolute, rather than relative, effects of interventions. Moreover, it can be easily modified to include considerations regarding clinically important effects. To showcase our method, we use data from a network of studies in antidepressants. All analyses are performed in R and we provide the source code needed to produce the Kilim plot, as well as an interactive web application.

Comparative efficacy and safety of pharmacological interventions for osteoporosis in postmenopausal women: a network meta-analysis (Chongqing, China)

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to assess the comparative effectiveness and safety of different pharmacological agents, including abaloparatide and romosozumab, for treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Google Scholar for relevant randomized controlled trials published up to July 16, 2018. After study selection according to the preplanned criteria, we performed data extraction and quality assessment. With statistical heterogeneity and inconsistency being examined, pairwise and network meta-analyses were conducted to synthesize risk ratio and 95% CI. Finally, we calculated the surface under the cumulative ranking curve to rank the interventions, and carried out three sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of our main results.

RESULTS

Our searches yielded 2,584 records in total, of which 21 were finally included in quantitative synthesis and all of them were of high quality. Our 5 outcomes of interest involved a total of 13 interventions and 67,524 participants. For each outcome, the estimated τ values all were less than or equal to 0.0747, and the P values for test of consistency varied from 0.097 to 0.941, respectively, suggesting low heterogeneity and no inconsistency. Abaloparatide and teriparatide, without statistical difference between them, had a statistically lower risk of new vertebral or nonvertebral fractures than placebo, strontium ranelate, risedronate, raloxifene, lasofoxifene (0.25 mg/d), lasofoxifene (0.5 mg/d), denosumab, and alendronate. Zoledronic acid and romosozumab, without statistical difference between them, were significantly more efficacious than placebo, risedronate, and alendronate in preventing clinical fractures. Denosumab was statistically superior to placebo in preventing new vertebral and nonvertebral fractures, and to placebo, risedronate, and alendronate in preventing clinical fractures. For the outcomes of adverse events and serious adverse events, all of treatments were not statistically different from one another, except that zoledronic acid was statistically worse than placebo in terms of adverse events. Based on surface under the cumulative ranking curves, abaloparatide and teriparatide were two of the most effective treatments in preventing new vertebral and nonvertebral fractures; zoledronic acid and romosozumab were two of the most effective treatments in preventing clinical fractures, and denosumab and romosozumab were two of the best interventions for the outcome of adverse events. Three sensitivity analyses revealed the robustness of the main results.

CONCLUSIONS

Abaloparatide and teriparatide are most efficacious in preventing new vertebral and nonvertebral fractures in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, whereas zoledronic acid and romosozumab are in preventing clinical fractures. Meanwhile, there is no statistical difference between abaloparatide, teriparatide or romosozumab, and placebo in terms of safety. Furthermore, in terms of adverse events, zoledronic acid is statistically worse than placebo, and two of the best interventions are denosumab and romosozumab, of which denosumab also reduces the risk of different kinds of fractures.

Fragility index of network meta-analysis with application to smoking cessation data

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The network meta-analysis (NMA) is frequently used to synthesize evidence for multiple treatment comparisons, but its complexity may affect the robustness (or fragility) of the results. The fragility index (FI) is recently proposed to assess the fragility of the results from clinical studies and from pairwise meta-analyses. We extend the FI to NMAs with binary outcomes.

METHODS

We define the FI for each treatment comparison in NMAs. It quantifies the minimal number of events necessary to be modified for altering the comparison's statistical significance. We introduce an algorithm to derive the FI and visualizations of the process. A worked example of smoking cessation data is used to illustrate the proposed methods.

RESULTS

Some treatment comparisons had small FIs; their significance (or nonsignificance) could be altered by modifying a few events' status. They were related to various factors, such as P-values, event counts, and sample sizes, in the original NMA. After modifying event status, treatment ranking measures were also changed to different extents.

CONCLUSION

Many NMAs include insufficiently compared treatments, small event counts, or small sample sizes; their results are potentially fragile. The FI offers a useful tool to evaluate treatment comparisons' robustness and reliability.

Comparative effectiveness of biological medicines in rheumatoid arthritis: systematic review and network meta-analysis including aggregate results from reanalysed individual patient data

OBJECTIVE

To assess the comparative effectiveness of biological medicines in rheumatoid arthritis in sufficiently similar patient populations, based on the current definitions of key outcomes.

DESIGN

Systematic review and network meta-analysis including aggregate results from reanalysed individual patient data.

DATA SOURCES

Clinical study reports and aggregate results from reanalyses of individual patient data on key outcomes for rheumatoid arthritis provided by study sponsors for studies conducted up to 2017, and several databases and registries from inception up to February 2017.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES

Randomised controlled trials investigating patient relevant outcomes in adults with rheumatoid arthritis treated with biological medicines in combination with methotrexate after methotrexate failure for at least 24 weeks.

RESULTS

45 eligible trials were identified. Combining data from clinical study reports and aggregate results from reanalyses of individual patient data allowed extensive analyses yielding sufficiently similar populations and homogeneous study results for network meta-analyses, including up to 35 studies on eight biological medicines combined with methotrexate. These analyses showed few statistically significant differences between the combination treatments. For example, anakinra showed less benefit than almost all the other seven biological medicines regarding clinical remission or low disease activity (clinical disease activity index ≤2.8 or ≤10, respectively) and certolizumab pegol showed more harm than the other seven biological medicines regarding serious adverse events or infections. Some outcomes had very wide 95% confidence intervals, potentially implying unidentified differences between the eight biological medicines, but wide 95% confidence intervals were less prominent for low disease activity, serious adverse events, and infections. Owing to a lack of head-to-head trials, results were mainly based on indirect comparisons with a limited number of studies, and recently approved Janus kinase inhibitors could not be included.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with rheumatoid arthritis after methotrexate failure, only minor differences in benefits and harms were seen between biological medicines in combination with methotrexate. However, the analysis was hampered by a lack of long term direct comparisons. The substantial information gain achieved by the reanalysis of individual patient data calls for the routine availability of individual patient data.

Component network meta-analysis compared to a matching method in a disconnected network: A case study

Network meta-analysis is a method to combine evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compare a number of different interventions for a given clinical condition. Usually, this requires a connected network. A possible approach to link a disconnected network is to add evidence from nonrandomized comparisons, using propensity score or matching-adjusted indirect comparisons methods. However, nonrandomized comparisons may be associated with an unclear risk of bias. Schmitz et al. used single-arm observational studies for bridging the gap between two disconnected networks of treatments for multiple myeloma. We present a reanalysis of these data using component network meta-analysis (CNMA) models entirely based on RCTs, utilizing the fact that many of the treatments consisted of common treatment components occurring in both networks. We discuss forward and backward strategies for selecting appropriate CNMA models and compare the results to those obtained by Schmitz et al. using their matching method. CNMA models provided a good fit to the data and led to treatment rankings that were similar, though not fully equal to that obtained by Schmitz et al. We conclude that researchers encountering a disconnected network with treatments in different subnets having common components should consider a CNMA model. Such models, exclusively based on evidence from RCTs, are a promising alternative to matching approaches that require additional evidence from observational studies. CNMA models are implemented in the R package netmeta.