The promise of machine learning in predicting treatment outcomes in psychiatry

Poor response to methylphenidate is associated with a smaller dorsal attentive network in adult Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD)

Stimulants, such as methylphenidate (MPH), are effective in treating attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), but there is individual variability in response, especially in adults. To improve outcomes, we need to understand the factors associated with adult treatment response. This longitudinal study investigated whether pre-treatment anatomy of the fronto-striatal and fronto-parietal attentional networks was associated with MPH treatment response. 60 adults with ADHD underwent diffusion brain imaging before starting MPH treatment, and response was measured at two months. We tested the association between brain anatomy and treatment response by using regression-based approaches; and compared the identified anatomical characteristics with those of 20 matched neurotypical controls in secondary analyses. Finally, we explored whether combining anatomical with clinical and neuropsychological data through machine learning provided a more comprehensive profile of factors associated with treatment response. At a group level, a smaller left dorsal superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF I), a tract responsible for the voluntary control of attention, was associated with a significantly lower probability of being responders to two-month MPH-treatment. The association between the volume of the left SLF I and treatment response was driven by improvement on both inattentive and hyperactive/impulsive symptoms. Only non-responders significantly differed from controls in this tract metric. Finally, our machine learning approach identified clinico-neuropsychological factors associated with treatment response, such as higher cognitive performance and symptom severity at baseline. These novel findings add to our understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms underlying response to MPH, pointing to the dorsal attentive network as playing a key role.

Duration of Untreated Illness in Patients with Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder and Its Impact on Long-Term Outcome: A Systematic Review

Background: Duration of untreated illness (DUI)-defined as the time period between the onset of a mental disorder and its first adequate treatment-should influence patients' long-term prognosis and outcome. In patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), DUI lasts on average from 87.5 up to 94.5 months, being significantly longer compared with data available from patients affected by other severe mental disorders, such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. We carried out a systematic review in order to assess the impact of DUI on long-term outcomes in OCD patients. Methods: A systemic review has been implemented, searching from inception to April 2023; only papers written in English were included. Results: Seventy-one articles were initially identified; only eight papers were included in the review. The DUI ranged from 7.0 ± 8.5 to 20.9 ± 11.2 years. Patients reporting a longer DUI have a poor long-term outcome in terms of lower level of treatment response and greater symptom severity. Conclusions: The present review confirms that longer DUI has a negative impact on the long-term outcome of patients with OCD. It should be useful to promote the dissemination of early interventions with a specific focus on OCD symptoms.

Revolutionizing stress-related disorder regulation through neuroinformatics and data analysis: An editorial

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Closing the Gap for Children with OCD: A Staged-Care Model of Cognitive Behavioural Therapy with Exposure and Response Prevention

Childhood obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is among the most prevalent and disabling mental health conditions affecting children and adolescents. Although the distress and burden associated with childhood OCD are well documented and empirically supported treatments are available, there remains an unacceptable "treatment gap" and "quality gap" in the provision of services for youth suffering from OCD. The treatment gap represents the large number of children who never receive mental health services for OCD, while the quality gap refers to the children and young people who do access services, but do not receive evidence-based, cognitive behavioural therapy with exposure and response prevention (CBT-ERP). We propose a novel staged-care model of CBT-ERP that aims to improve the treatment access to high-quality CBT-ERP, as well as enhance the treatment outcomes for youth. In staged care, patients receive hierarchically arranged service packages that vary according to the intensity, duration, and mix of treatment options, with provision of care from prevention, early intervention, through to first and second-line treatments. Based on a comprehensive review of the literature on treatment outcomes and predictors of treatments response, we propose a preliminary staging algorithm to determine the level of clinical care, informed by three key determinants: severity of illness, comorbidity, and prior treatment history. The proposed clinical staging model for paediatric OCD prioritises high-quality care for children at all stages and levels of illness, utilising empirically supported CBT-ERP, across multiple modalities, combined with evidence-informed, clinical decision-making heuristics. While informed by evidence, the proposed staging model requires empirical validation before it is ready for prime time.

Moving toward precision PTSD treatment: predicting veterans' intensive PTSD treatment response using continuously updating machine learning models

BACKGROUND

Considerable heterogeneity exists in treatment response to first-line posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) treatments, such as Cognitive Processing Therapy (CPT). Relatively little is known about the timing of when during a course of care the treatment response becomes apparent. Novel machine learning methods, especially continuously updating prediction models, have the potential to address these gaps in our understanding of response and optimize PTSD treatment.

METHODS

Using data from a 3-week (n = 362) CPT-based intensive PTSD treatment program (ITP), we explored three methods for generating continuously updating prediction models to predict endpoint PTSD severity. These included Mixed Effects Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (MixedBART), Mixed Effects Random Forest (MERF) machine learning models, and Linear Mixed Effects models (LMM). Models used baseline and self-reported PTSD symptom severity data collected every other day during treatment. We then validated our findings by examining model performances in a separate, equally established, 2-week CPT-based ITP (n = 108).

RESULTS

Results across approaches were very similar and indicated modest prediction accuracy at baseline (R2 ~ 0.18), with increasing accuracy of predictions of final PTSD severity across program timepoints (e.g. mid-program R2 ~ 0.62). Similar findings were obtained when the models were applied to the 2-week ITP. Neither the MERF nor the MixedBART machine learning approach outperformed LMM prediction, though benefits of each may differ based on the application.

CONCLUSIONS

Utilizing continuously updating models in PTSD treatments may be beneficial for clinicians in determining whether an individual is responding, and when this determination can be made.

Prediction of depression treatment outcome from multimodal data: a CAN-BIND-1 report

BACKGROUND

Prediction of treatment outcomes is a key step in improving the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD). The Canadian Biomarker Integration Network in Depression (CAN-BIND) aims to predict antidepressant treatment outcomes through analyses of clinical assessment, neuroimaging, and blood biomarkers.

METHODS

In the CAN-BIND-1 dataset of 192 adults with MDD and outcomes of treatment with escitalopram, we applied machine learning models in a nested cross-validation framework. Across 210 analyses, we examined combinations of predictive variables from three modalities, measured at baseline and after 2 weeks of treatment, and five machine learning methods with and without feature selection. To optimize the predictors-to-observations ratio, we followed a tiered approach with 134 and 1152 variables in tier 1 and tier 2 respectively.

RESULTS

A combination of baseline tier 1 clinical, neuroimaging, and molecular variables predicted response with a mean balanced accuracy of 0.57 (best model mean 0.62) compared to 0.54 (best model mean 0.61) in single modality models. Adding week 2 predictors improved the prediction of response to a mean balanced accuracy of 0.59 (best model mean 0.66). Adding tier 2 features did not improve prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

A combination of clinical, neuroimaging, and molecular data improves the prediction of treatment outcomes over single modality measurement. The addition of measurements from the early stages of treatment adds precision. Present results are limited by lack of external validation. To achieve clinically meaningful prediction, the multimodal measurement should be scaled up to larger samples and the robustness of prediction tested in an external validation dataset.

Out of their minds? Externalist challenges for using AI in forensic psychiatry

Harnessing the power of machine learning (ML) and other Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques promises substantial improvements across forensic psychiatry, supposedly offering more objective evaluations and predictions. However, AI-based predictions about future violent behaviour and criminal recidivism pose ethical challenges that require careful deliberation due to their social and legal significance. In this paper, we shed light on these challenges by considering externalist accounts of psychiatric disorders which stress that the presentation and development of psychiatric disorders is intricately entangled with their outward environment and social circumstances. We argue that any use of predictive AI in forensic psychiatry should not be limited to neurobiology alone but must also consider social and environmental factors. This thesis has practical implications for the design of predictive AI systems, especially regarding the collection and processing of training data, the selection of ML methods, and the determination of their explainability requirements.

Major depressive disorder

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is characterized by persistent depressed mood, loss of interest or pleasure in previously enjoyable activities, recurrent thoughts of death, and physical and cognitive symptoms. People with MDD can have reduced quality of life owing to the disorder itself as well as related medical comorbidities, social factors, and impaired functional outcomes. MDD is a complex disorder that cannot be fully explained by any one single established biological or environmental pathway. Instead, MDD seems to be caused by a combination of genetic, environmental, psychological and biological factors. Treatment for MDD commonly involves pharmacological therapy with antidepressant medications, psychotherapy or a combination of both. In people with severe and/or treatment-resistant MDD, other biological therapies, such as electroconvulsive therapy, may also be offered.

Digital transformation of mental health services

This paper makes a case for digital mental health and provides insights into how digital technologies can enhance (but not replace) existing mental health services. We describe digital mental health by presenting a suite of digital technologies (from digital interventions to the application of artificial intelligence). We discuss the benefits of digital mental health, for example, a digital intervention can be an accessible stepping-stone to receiving support. The paper does, however, present less-discussed benefits with new concepts such as 'poly-digital', where many different apps/features (e.g. a sleep app, mood logging app and a mindfulness app, etc.) can each address different factors of wellbeing, perhaps resulting in an aggregation of marginal gains. Another benefit is that digital mental health offers the ability to collect high-resolution real-world client data and provide client monitoring outside of therapy sessions. These data can be collected using digital phenotyping and ecological momentary assessment techniques (i.e. repeated mood or scale measures via an app). This allows digital mental health tools and real-world data to inform therapists and enrich face-to-face sessions. This can be referred to as blended care/adjunctive therapy where service users can engage in 'channel switching' between digital and non-digital (face-to-face) interventions providing a more integrated service. This digital integration can be referred to as a kind of 'digital glue' that helps join up the in-person sessions with the real world. The paper presents the challenges, for example, the majority of mental health apps are maybe of inadequate quality and there is a lack of user retention. There are also ethical challenges, for example, with the perceived 'over-promotion' of screen-time and the perceived reduction in care when replacing humans with 'computers', and the trap of 'technological solutionism' whereby technology can be naively presumed to solve all problems. Finally, we argue for the need to take an evidence-based, systems thinking and co-production approach in the form of stakeholder-centred design when developing digital mental health services based on technologies. The main contribution of this paper is the integration of ideas from many different disciplines as well as the framework for blended care using 'channel switching' to showcase how digital data and technology can enrich physical services. Another contribution is the emergence of 'poly-digital' and a discussion on the challenges of digital mental health, specifically 'digital ethics'.

Predictors of treatment dropout in patients with posttraumatic stress disorder due to childhood abuse

Background

Knowledge about patient characteristics predicting treatment dropout for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is scarce, whereas more understanding about this topic may give direction to address this important issue.

Method

Data were obtained from a randomized controlled trial in which a phase-based treatment condition (Eye Movement Desensitization and Reprocessing [EMDR] therapy preceded by Skills Training in Affect and Interpersonal Regulation [STAIR]; n = 57) was compared with a direct trauma-focused treatment (EMDR therapy only; n = 64) in people with a PTSD due to childhood abuse. All pre-treatment variables included in the trial were examined as possible predictors for dropout using machine learning techniques.

Results

For the dropout prediction, a model was developed using Elastic Net Regularization. The ENR model correctly predicted dropout in 81.6% of all individuals. Males, with a low education level, suicidal thoughts, problems in emotion regulation, high levels of general psychopathology and not using benzodiazepine medication at screening proved to have higher scores on dropout.

Conclusion

Our results provide directions for the development of future programs in addition to PTSD treatment or for the adaptation of current treatments, aiming to reduce treatment dropout among patients with PTSD due to childhood abuse.

Improving mental health care in depression: A call for action

Depressive disorders have one of the highest disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of all medical conditions, which led the European Psychiatric Association to propose a policy paper, pinpointing their unmet health care and research needs. The first part focuses on what can be currently done to improve the care of patients with depression, and then discuss future trends for research and healthcare. Through the narration of clinical cases, the different points are illustrated. The necessary political framework is formulated, to implement such changes to fundamentally improve psychiatric care. The group of European Psychiatrist Association (EPA) experts insist on the need for (1) increased awareness of mental illness in primary care settings, (2) the development of novel (biological) markers, (3) the rapid implementation of machine learning (supporting diagnostics, prognostics, and therapeutics), (4) the generalized use of electronic devices and apps into everyday treatment, (5) the development of the new generation of treatment options, such as plasticity-promoting agents, and (6) the importance of comprehensive recovery approach. At a political level, the group also proposed four priorities, the need to (1) increase the use of open science, (2) implement reasonable data protection laws, (3) establish ethical electronic health records, and (4) enable better healthcare research and saving resources.

Development of a model to predict antidepressant treatment response for depression among Veterans

BACKGROUND

Only a limited number of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) respond to a first course of antidepressant medication (ADM). We investigated the feasibility of creating a baseline model to determine which of these would be among patients beginning ADM treatment in the US Veterans Health Administration (VHA).

METHODS

A 2018-2020 national sample of n = 660 VHA patients receiving ADM treatment for MDD completed an extensive baseline self-report assessment near the beginning of treatment and a 3-month self-report follow-up assessment. Using baseline self-report data along with administrative and geospatial data, an ensemble machine learning method was used to develop a model for 3-month treatment response defined by the Quick Inventory of Depression Symptomatology Self-Report and a modified Sheehan Disability Scale. The model was developed in a 70% training sample and tested in the remaining 30% test sample.

RESULTS

In total, 35.7% of patients responded to treatment. The prediction model had an area under the ROC curve (s.e.) of 0.66 (0.04) in the test sample. A strong gradient in probability (s.e.) of treatment response was found across three subsamples of the test sample using training sample thresholds for high [45.6% (5.5)], intermediate [34.5% (7.6)], and low [11.1% (4.9)] probabilities of response. Baseline symptom severity, comorbidity, treatment characteristics (expectations, history, and aspects of current treatment), and protective/resilience factors were the most important predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

Although these results are promising, parallel models to predict response to alternative treatments based on data collected before initiating treatment would be needed for such models to help guide treatment selection.

Attitudes Toward the Adoption of 2 Artificial Intelligence-Enabled Mental Health Tools Among Prospective Psychotherapists: Cross-sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Despite growing efforts to develop user-friendly artificial intelligence (AI) applications for clinical care, their adoption remains limited because of the barriers at individual, organizational, and system levels. There is limited research on the intention to use AI systems in mental health care.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to address this gap by examining the predictors of psychology students' and early practitioners' intention to use 2 specific AI-enabled mental health tools based on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study included 206 psychology students and psychotherapists in training to examine the predictors of their intention to use 2 AI-enabled mental health care tools. The first tool provides feedback to the psychotherapist on their adherence to motivational interviewing techniques. The second tool uses patient voice samples to derive mood scores that the therapists may use for treatment decisions. Participants were presented with graphic depictions of the tools' functioning mechanisms before measuring the variables of the extended Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology. In total, 2 structural equation models (1 for each tool) were specified, which included direct and mediated paths for predicting tool use intentions.

RESULTS

Perceived usefulness and social influence had a positive effect on the intention to use the feedback tool (P<.001) and the treatment recommendation tool (perceived usefulness, P=.01 and social influence, P<.001). However, trust was unrelated to use intentions for both the tools. Moreover, perceived ease of use was unrelated (feedback tool) and even negatively related (treatment recommendation tool) to use intentions when considering all predictors (P=.004). In addition, a positive relationship between cognitive technology readiness (P=.02) and the intention to use the feedback tool and a negative relationship between AI anxiety and the intention to use the feedback tool (P=.001) and the treatment recommendation tool (P<.001) were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

The results shed light on the general and tool-dependent drivers of AI technology adoption in mental health care. Future research may explore the technological and user group characteristics that influence the adoption of AI-enabled tools in mental health care.

A framework for precision "dosing" of mental healthcare services: algorithm development and clinical pilot

BACKGROUND

One in five adults in the US experience mental illness and over half of these adults do not receive treatment. In addition to the access gap, few innovations have been reported for ensuring the right level of mental healthcare service is available at the right time for individual patients.

METHODS

Historical observational clinical data was leveraged from a virtual healthcare system. We conceptualize mental healthcare services themselves as therapeutic interventions and develop a prototype computational framework to estimate their potential longitudinal impacts on depressive symptom severity, which is then used to assess new treatment schedules and delivered to clinicians via a dashboard. We operationally define this process as "session dosing": 497 patients who started treatment with severe symptoms of depression between November 2020 and October 2021 were used for modeling. Subsequently, 22 mental health providers participated in a 5-week clinical quality improvement (QI) pilot, where they utilized the prototype dashboard in treatment planning with 126 patients.

RESULTS

The developed framework was able to resolve patient symptom fluctuations from their treatment schedules: 77% of the modeling dataset fit criteria for using the individual fits for subsequent clinical planning where five anecdotal profile types were identified that presented different clinical opportunities. Based on initial quality thresholds for model fits, 88% of those individuals were identified as adequate for session optimization planning using the developed dashboard, while 12% supported more thorough treatment planning (e.g. different treatment modalities). In the clinical pilot, 90% of clinicians reported using the dashboard a few times or more per member. Although most clinicians (67.5%) either rarely or never used the dashboard to change session types, numerous other discussions were enabled, and opportunities for automating session recommendations were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

It is possible to model and identify the extent to which mental healthcare services can resolve depressive symptom severity fluctuations. Implementation of one such prototype framework in a real-world clinic represents an advancement in mental healthcare treatment planning; however, investigations to assess which clinical endpoints are impacted by this technology, and the best way to incorporate such frameworks into clinical workflows, are needed and are actively being pursued.

Sampling inequalities affect generalization of neuroimaging-based diagnostic classifiers in psychiatry

BACKGROUND

The development of machine learning models for aiding in the diagnosis of mental disorder is recognized as a significant breakthrough in the field of psychiatry. However, clinical practice of such models remains a challenge, with poor generalizability being a major limitation.

METHODS

Here, we conducted a pre-registered meta-research assessment on neuroimaging-based models in the psychiatric literature, quantitatively examining global and regional sampling issues over recent decades, from a view that has been relatively underexplored. A total of 476 studies (n = 118,137) were included in the current assessment. Based on these findings, we built a comprehensive 5-star rating system to quantitatively evaluate the quality of existing machine learning models for psychiatric diagnoses.

RESULTS

A global sampling inequality in these models was revealed quantitatively (sampling Gini coefficient (G) = 0.81, p < .01), varying across different countries (regions) (e.g., China, G = 0.47; the USA, G = 0.58; Germany, G = 0.78; the UK, G = 0.87). Furthermore, the severity of this sampling inequality was significantly predicted by national economic levels (β =  - 2.75, p < .001, R²_adj = 0.40; r =  - .84, 95% CI: - .41 to - .97), and was plausibly predictable for model performance, with higher sampling inequality for reporting higher classification accuracy. Further analyses showed that lack of independent testing (84.24% of models, 95% CI: 81.0-87.5%), improper cross-validation (51.68% of models, 95% CI: 47.2-56.2%), and poor technical transparency (87.8% of models, 95% CI: 84.9-90.8%)/availability (80.88% of models, 95% CI: 77.3-84.4%) are prevailing in current diagnostic classifiers despite improvements over time. Relating to these observations, model performances were found decreased in studies with independent cross-country sampling validations (all p < .001, BF₁₀ > 15). In light of this, we proposed a purpose-built quantitative assessment checklist, which demonstrated that the overall ratings of these models increased by publication year but were negatively associated with model performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Together, improving sampling economic equality and hence the quality of machine learning models may be a crucial facet to plausibly translating neuroimaging-based diagnostic classifiers into clinical practice.

The role of pharmacogenomics in precision psychiatry

The field of psychiatry is facing an important paradigm shift in the provision of clinical care and mental health service organization toward personalization and integration of multimodal data science. This approach, termed precision psychiatry, aims at identifying subgroups of patients more prone to the development of a certain phenotype, such as symptoms or severe mental disorders (risk detection), and/or to guide treatment selection. Pharmacogenomics and computational psychiatry are two fundamental tools of precision psychiatry, which have seen increasing levels of integration in clinical settings. Here we present a brief overview of these two applications of precision psychiatry in clinical settings.

Multivariate resting-state functional connectomes predict and characterize obesity phenotypes

The univariate obesity-brain associations have been extensively explored, while little is known about the multivariate associations between obesity and resting-state functional connectivity. We therefore utilized machine learning and resting-state functional connectivity to develop and validate predictive models of 4 obesity phenotypes (i.e. body fat percentage, body mass index, waist circumference, and waist-height ratio) in 3 large neuroimaging datasets (n = 2,992). Preliminary evidence suggested that the resting-state functional connectomes effectively predicted obesity/weight status defined by each obesity phenotype with good generalizability to longitudinal and independent datasets. However, the differences between resting-state functional connectivity patterns characterizing different obesity phenotypes indicated that the obesity-brain associations varied according to the type of measure of obesity. The shared structure among resting-state functional connectivity patterns revealed reproducible neuroimaging biomarkers of obesity, primarily comprising the connectomes within the visual cortex and between the visual cortex and inferior parietal lobule, visual cortex and orbital gyrus, and amygdala and orbital gyrus, which further suggested that the dysfunctions in the perception, attention and value encoding of visual information (e.g. visual food cues) and abnormalities in the reward circuit may act as crucial neurobiological bases of obesity. The recruitment of multiple obesity phenotypes is indispensable in future studies seeking reproducible obesity-brain associations.

Predicting new-onset post-stroke depression from real-world data using machine learning algorithm

Introduction

Post-stroke depression (PSD) is a serious mental disorder after ischemic stroke. Early detection is important for clinical practice. This research aims to develop machine learning models to predict new-onset PSD using real-world data.

Methods

We collected data for ischemic stroke patients from multiple medical institutions in Taiwan between 2001 and 2019. We developed models from 61,460 patients and used 15,366 independent patients to test the models' performance by evaluating their specificities and sensitivities. The predicted targets were whether PSD occurred at 30, 90, 180, and 365 days post-stroke. We ranked the important clinical features in these models.

Results

In the study's database sample, 1.3% of patients were diagnosed with PSD. The average specificity and sensitivity of these four models were 0.83-0.91 and 0.30-0.48, respectively. Ten features were listed as important features related to PSD at different time points, namely old age, high height, low weight post-stroke, higher diastolic blood pressure after stroke, no pre-stroke hypertension but post-stroke hypertension (new-onset hypertension), post-stroke sleep-wake disorders, post-stroke anxiety disorders, post-stroke hemiplegia, and lower blood urea nitrogen during stroke.

Discussion

Machine learning models can provide as potential predictive tools for PSD and important factors are identified to alert clinicians for early detection of depression in high-risk stroke patients.

Candidate biomarkers in psychiatric disorders: state of the field

The field of psychiatry is hampered by a lack of robust, reliable and valid biomarkers that can aid in objectively diagnosing patients and providing individualized treatment recommendations. Here we review and critically evaluate the evidence for the most promising biomarkers in the psychiatric neuroscience literature for autism spectrum disorder, schizophrenia, anxiety disorders and post-traumatic stress disorder, major depression and bipolar disorder, and substance use disorders. Candidate biomarkers reviewed include various neuroimaging, genetic, molecular and peripheral assays, for the purposes of determining susceptibility or presence of illness, and predicting treatment response or safety. This review highlights a critical gap in the biomarker validation process. An enormous societal investment over the past 50 years has identified numerous candidate biomarkers. However, to date, the overwhelming majority of these measures have not been proven sufficiently reliable, valid and useful to be adopted clinically. It is time to consider whether strategic investments might break this impasse, focusing on a limited number of promising candidates to advance through a process of definitive testing for a specific indication. Some promising candidates for definitive testing include the N170 signal, an event-related brain potential measured using electroencephalography, for subgroup identification within autism spectrum disorder; striatal resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) measures, such as the striatal connectivity index (SCI) and the functional striatal abnormalities (FSA) index, for prediction of treatment response in schizophrenia; error-related negativity (ERN), an electrophysiological index, for prediction of first onset of generalized anxiety disorder, and resting-state and structural brain connectomic measures for prediction of treatment response in social anxiety disorder. Alternate forms of classification may be useful for conceptualizing and testing potential biomarkers. Collaborative efforts allowing the inclusion of biosystems beyond genetics and neuroimaging are needed, and online remote acquisition of selected measures in a naturalistic setting using mobile health tools may significantly advance the field. Setting specific benchmarks for well-defined target application, along with development of appropriate funding and partnership mechanisms, would also be crucial. Finally, it should never be forgotten that, for a biomarker to be actionable, it will need to be clinically predictive at the individual level and viable in clinical settings.

Waiting for a digital therapist: three challenges on the path to psychotherapy delivered by artificial intelligence

Growing demand for broadly accessible mental health care, together with the rapid development of new technologies, trigger discussions about the feasibility of psychotherapeutic interventions based on interactions with Conversational Artificial Intelligence (CAI). Many authors argue that while currently available CAI can be a useful supplement for human-delivered psychotherapy, it is not yet capable of delivering fully fledged psychotherapy on its own. The goal of this paper is to investigate what are the most important obstacles on our way to developing CAI systems capable of delivering psychotherapy in the future. To this end, we formulate and discuss three challenges central to this quest. Firstly, we might not be able to develop effective AI-based psychotherapy unless we deepen our understanding of what makes human-delivered psychotherapy effective. Secondly, assuming that it requires building a therapeutic relationship, it is not clear whether psychotherapy can be delivered by non-human agents. Thirdly, conducting psychotherapy might be a problem too complicated for narrow AI, i.e., AI proficient in dealing with only relatively simple and well-delineated tasks. If this is the case, we should not expect CAI to be capable of delivering fully-fledged psychotherapy until the so-called "general" or "human-like" AI is developed. While we believe that all these challenges can ultimately be overcome, we think that being mindful of them is crucial to ensure well-balanced and steady progress on our path to AI-based psychotherapy.

Machine Learning Techniques for Developing Remotely Monitored Central Nervous System Biomarkers Using Wearable Sensors: A Narrative Literature Review

BACKGROUND

Central nervous system (CNS) disorders benefit from ongoing monitoring to assess disease progression and treatment efficacy. Mobile health (mHealth) technologies offer a means for the remote and continuous symptom monitoring of patients. Machine Learning (ML) techniques can process and engineer mHealth data into a precise and multidimensional biomarker of disease activity.

OBJECTIVE

This narrative literature review aims to provide an overview of the current landscape of biomarker development using mHealth technologies and ML. Additionally, it proposes recommendations to ensure the accuracy, reliability, and interpretability of these biomarkers.

METHODS

This review extracted relevant publications from databases such as PubMed, IEEE, and CTTI. The ML methods employed across the selected publications were then extracted, aggregated, and reviewed.

RESULTS

This review synthesized and presented the diverse approaches of 66 publications that address creating mHealth-based biomarkers using ML. The reviewed publications provide a foundation for effective biomarker development and offer recommendations for creating representative, reproducible, and interpretable biomarkers for future clinical trials.

CONCLUSION

mHealth-based and ML-derived biomarkers have great potential for the remote monitoring of CNS disorders. However, further research and standardization of study designs are needed to advance this field. With continued innovation, mHealth-based biomarkers hold promise for improving the monitoring of CNS disorders.

Systematic review of machine learning utilization within outpatient psychodynamic psychotherapy research

Introduction

Although outpatient psychodynamic psychotherapy is effective, there has been no improvement in treatment success in recent years. One way to improve psychodynamic treatment could be the use of machine learning to design treatments tailored to the individual patient's needs. In the context of psychotherapy, machine learning refers mainly to various statistical methods, which aim to predict outcomes (e.g., drop-out) of future patients as accurately as possible. We therefore searched various literature for all studies using machine learning in outpatient psychodynamic psychotherapy research to identify current trends and objectives.

Methods

For this systematic review, we applied the Preferred Reporting Items for systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Guidelines.

Results

In total, we found four studies that used machine learning in outpatient psychodynamic psychotherapy research. Three of these studies were published between 2019 and 2021.

Discussion

We conclude that machine learning has only recently made its way into outpatient psychodynamic psychotherapy research and researchers might not yet be aware of its possible uses. Therefore, we have listed a variety of perspectives on how machine learning could be used to increase treatment success of psychodynamic psychotherapies. In doing so, we hope to give new impetus to outpatient psychodynamic psychotherapy research on how to use machine learning to address previously unsolved problems.

Subjective and objective sleep and circadian parameters as predictors of depression-related outcomes: A machine learning approach in UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Sleep and circadian disruption are associated with depression onset and severity, but it is unclear which features (e.g., sleep duration, chronotype) are important and whether they can identify individuals showing poorer outcomes.

METHODS

Within a subset of the UK Biobank with actigraphy and mental health data (n = 64,353), penalised regression identified the most useful of 51 sleep/rest-activity predictors of depression-related outcomes; including case-control (Major Depression (MD) vs. controls; postnatal depression vs. controls) and within-case comparisons (severe vs. moderate MD; early vs. later onset, atypical vs. typical symptoms; comorbid anxiety; suicidality). Best models (of lasso, ridge, and elastic net) were selected based on Area Under the Curve (AUC).

RESULTS

For MD vs. controls (n_(MD) = 24,229; n_(control) = 40,124), lasso AUC was 0.68, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.67-0.69. Discrimination was reasonable for atypical vs. typical symptoms (n_(atypical) = 958; n_(typical) = 18,722; ridge: AUC 0.74, 95 % CI 0.71-0.77) but poor for remaining models (AUCs 0.59-0.67). Key predictors across most models included: difficulty getting up, insomnia symptoms, snoring, actigraphy-measured daytime inactivity and lower morning activity (~8 am). In a distinct subset (n = 310,718), the number of these factors shown was associated with all depression outcomes.

LIMITATIONS

Analyses were cross-sectional and in middle-/older aged adults: comparison with longitudinal investigations and younger cohorts is necessary.

DISCUSSION

Sleep and circadian measures alone provided poor to moderate discrimination of depression outcomes, but several characteristics were identified that may be clinically useful. Future work should assess these features alongside broader sociodemographic, lifestyle and genetic features.

Machine learning v. traditional regression models predicting treatment outcomes for binge-eating disorder from a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

While effective treatments exist for binge-eating disorder (BED), prediction of treatment outcomes has proven difficult, and few reliable predictors have been identified. Machine learning is a promising method for improving the accuracy of difficult-to-predict outcomes. We compared the accuracy of traditional and machine-learning approaches for predicting BED treatment outcomes.

METHODS

Participants were 191 adults with BED in a randomized controlled trial testing 6-month behavioral and stepped-care treatments. Outcomes, determined by independent assessors, were binge-eating (% reduction, abstinence), eating-disorder psychopathology, and weight loss (% loss, ⩾5% loss). Predictors included treatment condition, demographic information, and baseline clinical characteristics. Traditional models were logistic/linear regressions. Machine-learning models were elastic net regressions and random forests. Predictive accuracy was indicated by the area under receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC), root mean square error (RMSE), and R2. Confidence intervals were used to compare accuracy across models.

RESULTS

Across outcomes, AUC ranged from very poor to fair (0.49-0.73) for logistic regressions, elastic nets, and random forests, with few significant differences across model types. RMSE was significantly lower for elastic nets and random forests v. linear regressions but R2 values were low (0.01-0.23).

CONCLUSIONS

Different analytic approaches revealed some predictors of key treatment outcomes, but accuracy was limited. Machine-learning models with unbiased resampling methods provided a minimal advantage over traditional models in predictive accuracy for treatment outcomes.

AI-assisted prediction of differential response to antidepressant classes using electronic health records

Antidepressant selection is largely a trial-and-error process. We used electronic health record (EHR) data and artificial intelligence (AI) to predict response to four antidepressants classes (SSRI, SNRI, bupropion, and mirtazapine) 4 to 12 weeks after antidepressant initiation. The final data set comprised 17,556 patients. Predictors were derived from both structured and unstructured EHR data and models accounted for features predictive of treatment selection to minimize confounding by indication. Outcome labels were derived through expert chart review and AI-automated imputation. Regularized generalized linear model (GLM), random forest, gradient boosting machine (GBM), and deep neural network (DNN) models were trained and their performance compared. Predictor importance scores were derived using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). All models demonstrated similarly good prediction performance (AUROCs ≥ 0.70, AUPRCs ≥ 0.68). The models can estimate differential treatment response probabilities both between patients and between antidepressant classes for the same patient. In addition, patient-specific factors driving response probabilities for each antidepressant class can be generated. We show that antidepressant response can be accurately predicted from real-world EHR data with AI modeling, and our approach could inform further development of clinical decision support systems for more effective treatment selection.

Can Epigenetics Predict Drug Efficiency in Mental Disorders?

Psychiatric disorders affect millions of individuals and their families worldwide, and the costs to society are substantial and are expected to rise due to a lack of effective treatments. Personalized medicine-customized treatment tailored to the individual-offers a solution. Although most mental diseases are influenced by genetic and environmental factors, finding genetic biomarkers that predict treatment efficacy has been challenging. This review highlights the potential of epigenetics as a tool for predicting treatment efficacy and personalizing medicine for psychiatric disorders. We examine previous studies that have attempted to predict treatment efficacy through epigenetics, provide an experimental model, and note the potential challenges at each stage. While the field is still in its infancy, epigenetics holds promise as a predictive tool by examining individual patients' epigenetic profiles in conjunction with other indicators. However, further research is needed, including additional studies, replication, validation, and application beyond clinical settings.

Multimodal predictions of treatment outcome in major depression: A comparison of data-driven predictors with importance ratings by clinicians

BACKGROUND

Reliable prediction models of treatment outcome in Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) are currently lacking in clinical practice. Data-driven outcome definitions, combining data from multiple modalities and incorporating clinician expertise might improve predictions.

METHODS

We used unsupervised machine learning to identify treatment outcome classes in 1060 MDD inpatients. Subsequently, classification models were created on clinical and biological baseline information to predict treatment outcome classes and compared to the performance of two widely used classical outcome definitions. We also related the findings to results from an online survey that assessed which information clinicians use for outcome prognosis.

RESULTS

Three and four outcome classes were identified by unsupervised learning. However, data-driven outcome classes did not result in more accurate prediction models. The best prediction model was targeting treatment response in its standard definition and reached accuracies of 63.9 % in the test sample, and 59.5 % and 56.9 % in the validation samples. Top predictors included sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, while biological parameters did not improve prediction accuracies. Treatment history, personality factors, prior course of the disorder, and patient attitude towards treatment were ranked as most important indicators by clinicians.

LIMITATIONS

Missing data limited the power to identify biological predictors of treatment outcome from certain modalities.

CONCLUSIONS

So far, the inclusion of available biological measures in addition to psychometric and clinical information did not improve predictive value of the models, which was overall low. Optimized biomarkers, stratified predictions and the inclusion of clinical expertise may improve future prediction models.

Individual differences in computational psychiatry: a review of current challenges

Bringing precision to the understanding and treatment of mental disorders requires instruments for studying clinically relevant individual differences. One promising approach is the development of computational assays: integrating computational models with cognitive tasks to infer latent patient-specific disease processes in brain computations. While recent years have seen many methodological advancements in computational modelling and many cross-sectional patient studies, much less attention has been paid to basic psychometric properties (reliability and construct validity) of the computational measures provided by the assays. In this review, we assess the extent of this issue by examining emerging empirical evidence. We find that many computational measures suffer from poor psychometric properties, which poses a risk of invalidating previous findings and undermining ongoing research efforts using computational assays to study individual (and even group) differences. We provide recommendations for how to address these problems and, crucially, embed them within a broader perspective on key developments that are needed for translating computational assays to clinical practice.

Machine learning methods to predict outcomes of pharmacological treatment in psychosis

In recent years, machine learning (ML) has been a promising approach in the research of treatment outcome prediction in psychosis. In this study, we reviewed ML studies using different neuroimaging, neurophysiological, genetic, and clinical features to predict antipsychotic treatment outcomes in patients at different stages of schizophrenia. Literature available on PubMed until March 2022 was reviewed. Overall, 28 studies were included, among them 23 using a single-modality approach and 5 combining data from multiple modalities. The majority of included studies considered structural and functional neuroimaging biomarkers as predictive features used in ML models. Specifically, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) features contributed to antipsychotic treatment response prediction of psychosis with good accuracies. Additionally, several studies found that ML models based on clinical features might present adequate predictive ability. Importantly, by examining the additive effects of combining features, the predictive value might be improved by applying multimodal ML approaches. However, most of the included studies presented several limitations, such as small sample sizes and a lack of replication tests. Moreover, considerable clinical and analytical heterogeneity among included studies posed a challenge in synthesizing findings and generating robust overall conclusions. Despite the complexity and heterogeneity of methodology, prognostic features, clinical presentation, and treatment approaches, studies included in this review suggest that ML tools may have the potential to predict treatment outcomes of psychosis accurately. Future studies need to focus on refining feature characterization, validating prediction models, and evaluate their translation in real-world clinical practice.

Moderators of LGBQ-affirmative cognitive behavioral therapy: ESTEEM is especially effective among Black and Latino sexual minority men

OBJECTIVE

Lesbian, gay, bisexual, and queer (LGBQ)-affirmative cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) focused on minority stress processes can address gay and bisexual men's transdiagnostic mental and behavioral health concerns. Identifying moderators of treatment outcomes may inform the mechanisms of LGBQ-affirmative CBT and subpopulations who may derive particular benefit.

METHOD

Data were from a clinical trial in which gay and bisexual men with mental and behavioral health concerns were randomized to receive Effective Skills to Empower Effective Men (ESTEEM; an LGBQ-affirmative transdiagnostic CBT; n = 100) or one of two control conditions (n = 154): LGBQ-affirmative community mental health treatment (CMHT) or HIV counseling and testing (HCT). The preregistered outcome was a comorbidity index of depression, anxiety, alcohol/drug problems, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission risk behavior at 8-month follow-up (i.e., 4 months postintervention). A two-step exploratory machine learning process was employed for 20 theoretically informed baseline variables identified by study therapists as potential moderators of ESTEEM efficacy. Potential moderators included demographic factors, pretreatment comorbidities, clinical facilitators, and minority stress factors.

RESULTS

Racial/ethnic minority identification, namely as Black or Latino, was the only statistically significant moderator of treatment efficacy (B = -3.23, 95% CI [-5.03, -1.64]), t(197) = -3.88, p < .001. Racially/ethnically minoritized recipients (d = -0.71, p < .001), but not White/non-Latino recipients (d = 0.22, p = .391), had greater reductions in comorbidity index scores in ESTEEM compared to the control conditions. This moderation was driven by improvements in anxiety and alcohol/drug use problems.

DISCUSSION

Black and Latino gay and bisexual men experiencing comorbid mental and behavioral health risks might particularly benefit from a minority stress-focused LGBQ-affirmative CBT. Future research should identify mechanisms for this moderation to inform targeted treatment delivery and dissemination. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Predicting psychotic relapse following randomised discontinuation of paliperidone in individuals with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder: an individual participant data analysis

BACKGROUND

Predicting relapse for individuals with psychotic disorders is not well established, especially after discontinuation of antipsychotic treatment. We aimed to identify general prognostic factors of relapse for all participants (irrespective of treatment continuation or discontinuation) and specific predictors of relapse for treatment discontinuation, using machine learning.

METHODS

For this individual participant data analysis, we searched the Yale University Open Data Access Project's database for placebo-controlled, randomised antipsychotic discontinuation trials with participants with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder (aged ≥18 years). We included studies in which participants were treated with any antipsychotic study drug and randomly assigned to continue the same antipsychotic drug or to discontinue it and receive placebo. We assessed 36 prespecified baseline variables at randomisation to predict time to relapse, using univariate and multivariate proportional hazard regression models (including multivariate treatment group by variable interactions) with machine learning to categorise the variables as general prognostic factors of relapse, specific predictors of relapse, or both.

FINDINGS

We identified 414 trials, of which five trials with 700 participants (304 [43%] women and 396 [57%] men) were eligible for the continuation group and 692 participants (292 [42%] women and 400 [58%] men) were eligible for the discontinuation group (median age 37 [IQR 28-47] years for continuation group and 38 [28-47] years for discontinuation group). Out of the 36 baseline variables, general prognostic factors of increased risk of relapse for all participants were drug-positive urine; paranoid, disorganised, and undifferentiated types of schizophrenia (lower risk for schizoaffective disorder); psychiatric and neurological adverse events; higher severity of akathisia (ie, difficulty or inability to sit still); antipsychotic discontinuation; lower social performance; younger age; lower glomerular filtration rate; benzodiazepine comedication (lower risk for anti-epileptic comedication). Out of the 36 baseline variables, predictors of increased risk specifically after antipsychotic discontinuation were increased prolactin concentration, higher number of hospitalisations, and smoking. Both prognostic factors and predictors with increased risk after discontinuation were oral antipsychotic treatment (lower risk for long-acting injectables), higher last dosage of the antipsychotic study drug, shorter duration of antipsychotic treatment, and higher score on the Clinical Global Impression (CGI) severity scale The predictive performance (concordance index) for participants who were not used to train the model was 0·707 (chance level is 0·5).

INTERPRETATION

Routinely available general prognostic factors of psychotic relapse and predictors specific for treatment discontinuation could be used to support personalised treatment. Abrupt discontinuation of higher dosages of oral antipsychotics, especially for individuals with recurring hospitalisations, higher scores on the CGI severity scale, and increased prolactin concentrations, should be avoided to reduce the risk of relapse.

FUNDING

German Research Foundation and Berlin Institute of Health.

Precision Medicine Approaches to Mental Health Care

Developing a more comprehensive understanding of the physiological underpinnings of mental illness, precision medicine has the potential to revolutionize psychiatric care. With recent breakthroughs in next-generation multi-omics technologies and data analytics, it is becoming more feasible to leverage multimodal biomarkers, from genetic variants to neuroimaging biomarkers, to objectify diagnostics and treatment decisions in psychiatry and improve patient outcomes. Ongoing work in precision psychiatry will parallel progress in precision oncology and cardiology to develop an expanded suite of blood- and neuroimaging-based diagnostic tests, empower monitoring of treatment efficacy over time, and reduce patient exposure to ineffective treatments. The emerging model of precision psychiatry has the potential to mitigate some of psychiatry's most pressing issues, including improving disease classification, lengthy treatment duration, and suboptimal treatment outcomes. This narrative-style review summarizes some of the emerging breakthroughs and recurring challenges in the application of precision medicine approaches to mental health care.

Multi-omics data integration methods and their applications in psychiatric disorders

To study mental illness and health, in the past researchers have often broken down their complexity into individual subsystems (e.g., genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, clinical data) and explored the components independently. Technological advancements and decreasing costs of high throughput sequencing has led to an unprecedented increase in data generation. Furthermore, over the years it has become increasingly clear that these subsystems do not act in isolation but instead interact with each other to drive mental illness and health. Consequently, individual subsystems are now analysed jointly to promote a holistic understanding of the underlying biological complexity of health and disease. Complementing the increasing data availability, current research is geared towards developing novel methods that can efficiently combine the information rich multi-omics data to discover biologically meaningful biomarkers for diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. However, clinical translation of the research is still challenging. In this review, we summarise conventional and state-of-the-art statistical and machine learning approaches for discovery of biomarker, diagnosis, as well as outcome and treatment response prediction through integrating multi-omics and clinical data. In addition, we describe the role of biological model systems and in silico multi-omics model designs in clinical translation of psychiatric research from bench to bedside. Finally, we discuss the current challenges and explore the application of multi-omics integration in future psychiatric research. The review provides a structured overview and latest updates in the field of multi-omics in psychiatry.

Prediction of Chinese clients' satisfaction with psychotherapy by machine learning

Background

Effective psychotherapy should satisfy the client, but that satisfaction depends on many factors. We do not fully understand the factors that affect client satisfaction with psychotherapy and how these factors synergistically affect a client's psychotherapy experience.

Aims

This study aims to use machine learning to predict Chinese clients' satisfaction with psychotherapy and analyze potential outcome contributors.

Methods

In this cross-sectional investigation, a self-compiled online questionnaire was delivered through the WeChat app. The information of 791 participants who had received psychotherapy was used in the study. A series of features, for example, the participants' demographic features and psychotherapy-related features, were chosen to distinguish between participants satisfied and dissatisfied with the psychotherapy they received. With our dataset, we trained seven supervised machine-learning-based algorithms to implement prediction models.

Results

Among the 791 participants, 619 (78.3%) reported being satisfied with the psychotherapy sessions that they received. The occupation of the clients, the location of psychotherapy, and the form of access to psychotherapy are the three most recognizable features that determined whether clients are satisfied with psychotherapy. The machine-learning model based on the CatBoost achieved the highest prediction performance in classifying satisfied and psychotherapy clients with an F1 score of 0.758.

Conclusion

This study clarified the factors related to clients' satisfaction with psychotherapy, and the machine-learning-based classifier accurately distinguished clients who were satisfied or unsatisfied with psychotherapy. These results will help provide better psychotherapy strategies for specific clients, so they may achieve better therapeutic outcomes.

Electroencephalography for predicting antidepressant treatment success: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Patients suffering from major depressive disorder (MDD) regularly experience non-response to treatment for their depressive episode. Personalized clinical decision making could shorten depressive episodes and reduce patient suffering. Although no clinical tools are currently available, machine learning analysis of electroencephalography (EEG) shows promise in treatment response prediction.

METHODS

With a systematic review and meta-analysis, we evaluated the accuracy of EEG for individual patient response prediction. Importantly, we included only prediction studies that used cross-validation. We used a bivariate model to calculate prediction success, as expressed by area-under the curve, sensitivity and specificity. Furthermore, we analyzed prediction success for separate antidepressant interventions.

RESULTS

15 studies with 12 individual patient samples and a total of 479 patients were included. Research methods varied considerably between studies. Meta-analysis of results from this heterogeneous set of studies resulted in an area under the curve of 0.91, a sensitivity of 83 % (95 % CI 74-89 %), and a specificity of 86 % (95 % CI 81-90 %). Classification performance did not significantly differ between treatments. Although studies were all internally validated, no externally validated studies have been reported. We found substantial risk of bias caused by methodological shortcomings such as non-independent feature selection, though performance of non-biased studies was comparable.

LIMITATIONS

Sample sizes were relatively small and no study used external validation, increasing the risk of overestimation of accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

Electroencephalography can predict the response to antidepressant treatment with high accuracy. However, future studies with more rigorous validation are needed to produce a clinical tool to guide interventions in MDD.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021268169.

The Precision in Psychiatry (PIP) study: Testing an internet-based methodology for accelerating research in treatment prediction and personalisation

BACKGROUND

Evidence-based treatments for depression exist but not all patients benefit from them. Efforts to develop predictive models that can assist clinicians in allocating treatments are ongoing, but there are major issues with acquiring the volume and breadth of data needed to train these models. We examined the feasibility, tolerability, patient characteristics, and data quality of a novel protocol for internet-based treatment research in psychiatry that may help advance this field.

METHODS

A fully internet-based protocol was used to gather repeated observational data from patient cohorts receiving internet-based cognitive behavioural therapy (iCBT) (N = 600) or antidepressant medication treatment (N = 110). At baseline, participants provided > 600 data points of self-report data, spanning socio-demographics, lifestyle, physical health, clinical and other psychological variables and completed 4 cognitive tests. They were followed weekly and completed another detailed clinical and cognitive assessment at week 4. In this paper, we describe our study design, the demographic and clinical characteristics of participants, their treatment adherence, study retention and compliance, the quality of the data gathered, and qualitative feedback from patients on study design and implementation.

RESULTS

Participant retention was 92% at week 3 and 84% for the final assessment. The relatively short study duration of 4 weeks was sufficient to reveal early treatment effects; there were significant reductions in 11 transdiagnostic psychiatric symptoms assessed, with the largest improvement seen for depression. Most participants (66%) reported being distracted at some point during the study, 11% failed 1 or more attention checks and 3% consumed an intoxicating substance. Data quality was nonetheless high, with near perfect 4-week test retest reliability for self-reported height (ICC = 0.97).

CONCLUSIONS

An internet-based methodology can be used efficiently to gather large amounts of detailed patient data during iCBT and antidepressant treatment. Recruitment was rapid, retention was relatively high and data quality was good. This paper provides a template methodology for future internet-based treatment studies, showing that such an approach facilitates data collection at a scale required for machine learning and other data-intensive methods that hope to deliver algorithmic tools that can aid clinical decision-making in psychiatry.

The development and internal evaluation of a predictive model to identify for whom Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy (MBCT) offers superior relapse prevention for recurrent depression versus maintenance antidepressant medication

Depression is highly recurrent, even following successful pharmacological and/or psychological intervention. We aimed to develop clinical prediction models to inform adults with recurrent depression choosing between antidepressant medication (ADM) maintenance or switching to Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy (MBCT). Using data from the PREVENT trial (N=424), we constructed prognostic models using elastic net regression that combined demographic, clinical and psychological factors to predict relapse at 24 months under ADM or MBCT. Only the ADM model (discrimination performance: AUC=.68) predicted relapse better than baseline depression severity (AUC=.54; one-tailed DeLong's test: z=2.8, p=.003). Individuals with the poorest ADM prognoses who switched to MBCT had better outcomes compared to those who maintained ADM (48% vs. 70% relapse, respectively; superior survival times [z=-2.7, p=.008]). For individuals with moderate-to-good ADM prognosis, both treatments resulted in similar likelihood of relapse. If replicated, the results suggest that predictive modeling can inform clinical decision-making around relapse prevention in recurrent depression.

Improving treatment outcomes for borderline personality disorder: what can we learn from biomarker studies of psychotherapy?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Borderline personality disorder (BPD) is a severe and common psychiatric disorder and though evidence-based psychotherapies are effective, rates of treatment nonresponse are as high as 50%. Treatment studies may benefit from interdisciplinary approaches from neuroscience and genetics research that could generate novel insights into treatment mechanisms and tailoring interventions to the individual.

RECENT FINDINGS

We provide a timely update to the small but growing body of literature investigating neurobiological and epigenetic changes and using biomarkers to predict outcomes from evidence-based psychotherapies for BPD. Using a rapid review methodology, we identified eight new studies, updating our earlier 2018 systematic review. Across all studies, neuroimaging ( n  = 18) and genetics studies ( n  = 4) provide data from 735 participants diagnosed with BPD (mean sample size across studies = 33.4, range 2-115).

SUMMARY

We report further evidence for psychotherapy-related alterations of neural activation and connectivity in regions and networks relating to executive control, emotion regulation, and self/interpersonal functioning in BPD. Emerging evidence also shows epigenetic changes following treatment. Future large-scale multisite studies may help to delineate multilevel treatment targets to inform intervention design, selection, and monitoring for the individual patient via integration of knowledge generated through clinical, neuroscience, and genetics research.

Resting-State Brain Activity Dysfunctions in Schizophrenia and Their Associations with Negative Symptom Domains: An fMRI Study

The aim of the present study was to examine the neurobiological correlates of the two negative symptom domains of schizophrenia, the Motivational Deficit domain (including avolition, anhedonia, and asociality) and the Expressive Deficit domain (including blunted affect and alogia), focusing on brain areas that are most commonly found to be associated with negative symptoms in previous literature. Resting-state (rs) fMRI data were analyzed in 62 subjects affected by schizophrenia (SZs) and 46 healthy controls (HCs). The SZs, compared to the HCs, showed higher rs brain activity in the right inferior parietal lobule and the right temporoparietal junction, and lower rs brain activity in the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, the bilateral anterior dorsal cingulate cortex, and the ventral and dorsal caudate. Furthermore, in the SZs, the rs brain activity in the left orbitofrontal cortex correlated with negative symptoms (r = -0.436, p = 0.006), in particular with the Motivational Deficit domain (r = -0.424, p = 0.002), even after controlling for confounding factors. The left ventral caudate correlated with negative symptoms (r = -0.407, p = 0.003), especially with the Expressive Deficit domain (r = -0.401, p = 0.003); however, these results seemed to be affected by confounding factors. In line with the literature, our results demonstrated that the two negative symptom domains might be underpinned by different neurobiological mechanisms.

Sex and gender differences in clinical and functional indices in subjects with schizophrenia and healthy controls: Data from the baseline and 4-year follow-up studies of the Italian Network for Research on Psychoses

Gender differences in clinical and psychosocial aspects of schizophrenia have been widely reported. Findings have not always been consistent, and some of them need further research. In a large sample of community dwelling persons with schizophrenia, we investigated gender differences in clinical, cognitive and functional indices, as well as their changes over a 4-year follow-up and their impact on real-life functioning. Gender differences in personal resources, cognitive and functional indices were explored also in a sample of healthy controls. Men with respect to women had an earlier age of illness onset, a worse premorbid adjustment in the academic domain, more severe avolition, expressive deficit and positive symptoms, lower prevalence of comorbidity for affective disorders, less frequent use of two coping strategies ('religion' and 'use of emotional support') and more frequent positive history of substance and alcohol abuse. In addition, men were more impaired in verbal learning, while women in reasoning/problem solving. Some patterns of gender differences observed in healthy controls were not confirmed in patients. Men's disadvantages in the clinical picture did not translate into a worse outcome. This finding may be related to the complex interplay of several factors acting as predictors or mediators of outcome.

Burning down the house: reinventing drug discovery in psychiatry for the development of targeted therapies

Despite advances in neuroscience, limited progress has been made in developing new and better medications for psychiatric disorders. Available treatments in psychiatry rely on a few classes of drugs that have a broad spectrum of activity across disorders with limited understanding of mechanism of action. While the added value of more targeted therapies is apparent, a dearth of pathophysiologic mechanisms exists to support targeted treatments, and where mechanisms have been identified and drugs developed, results have been disappointing. Based on serendipity and early successes that led to the current drug armamentarium, a haunting legacy endures that new drugs should align with outdated and overinclusive diagnostic categories, consistent with the idea that "one size fits all". This legacy has fostered clinical trial designs focused on heterogenous populations of patients with a single diagnosis and non-specific outcome variables. Disturbingly, this approach likely contributed to missed opportunities for drugs targeting the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis and now inflammation. Indeed, cause-and-effect data support the role of inflammatory processes in neurotransmitter alterations that disrupt specific neurocircuits and related behaviors. This pathway to pathology occurs across disorders and warrants clinical trial designs that enrich for patients with increased inflammation and use primary outcome variables associated with specific effects of inflammation on brain and behavior. Nevertheless, such trial designs have not been routinely employed, and results of anti-inflammatory treatments have been underwhelming. Thus, to accelerate development of targeted therapeutics including in the area of inflammation, regulatory agencies and the pharmaceutical industry must embrace treatments and trials focused on pathophysiologic pathways that impact specific symptom domains in subsets of patients, agnostic to diagnosis. Moreover, closer collaboration among basic and clinical investigators is needed to apply neuroscience knowledge to reveal disease mechanisms that drive psychiatric symptoms. Together, these efforts will support targeted treatments, ultimately leading to new and better therapeutics in psychiatry.

Predicting treatment outcome in depression: an introduction into current concepts and challenges

Improving response and remission rates in major depressive disorder (MDD) remains an important challenge. Matching patients to the treatment they will most likely respond to should be the ultimate goal. Even though numerous studies have investigated patient-specific indicators of treatment efficacy, no (bio)markers or empirical tests for use in clinical practice have resulted as of now. Therefore, clinical decisions regarding the treatment of MDD still have to be made on the basis of questionnaire- or interview-based assessments and general guidelines without the support of a (laboratory) test. We conducted a narrative review of current approaches to characterize and predict outcome to pharmacological treatments in MDD. We particularly focused on findings from newer computational studies using machine learning and on the resulting implementation into clinical decision support systems. The main issues seem to rest upon the unavailability of robust predictive variables and the lacking application of empirical findings and predictive models in clinical practice. We outline several challenges that need to be tackled on different stages of the translational process, from current concepts and definitions to generalizable prediction models and their successful implementation into digital support systems. By bridging the addressed gaps in translational psychiatric research, advances in data quantity and new technologies may enable the next steps toward precision psychiatry.

Predicting early dropout in online versus face-to-face guided self-help: A machine learning approach

BACKGROUND

Early dropout hinders the effective adoption of brief psychological interventions and is associated with poor treatment outcomes. This study examined if attendance and depression treatment outcomes could be improved by matching patients to either face-to-face or computerized low-intensity psychological interventions.

METHODS

Archival clinical records were analysed for 85,664 patients who accessed face-to-face or computerized guided self-help (GSH). The primary outcome was early dropout (attending ≤3 sessions). Supervised machine learning analyses were applied in a training sample (n = 55,529). The trained algorithm was cross-validated in an independent test sample (n = 30,135). The clinical utility of the model was evaluated using logistic regression, chi-square tests, and sensitivity analyses in a balanced subsample.

RESULTS

Patients who received their model-indicated treatment modality were 12% more likely to receive an adequate dose of treatment OR = 1.12 (95% CI = 1.02 to 1.24), p = .02, and the strength of this effect was larger in the balanced subsample (OR = 2.10, 95% CI = 1.65 to 2.68, p < .001). Patients had better treatment outcomes when matched to their model-indicated treatment modality.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning approaches may enable services to optimally match patients to the treatment modality that maximizes attendance.

Personalized Prediction of Response to Smartphone-Delivered Meditation Training: Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Meditation apps have surged in popularity in recent years, with an increasing number of individuals turning to these apps to cope with stress, including during the COVID-19 pandemic. Meditation apps are the most commonly used mental health apps for depression and anxiety. However, little is known about who is well suited to these apps.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop and test a data-driven algorithm to predict which individuals are most likely to benefit from app-based meditation training.

METHODS

Using randomized controlled trial data comparing a 4-week meditation app (Healthy Minds Program [HMP]) with an assessment-only control condition in school system employees (n=662), we developed an algorithm to predict who is most likely to benefit from HMP. Baseline clinical and demographic characteristics were submitted to a machine learning model to develop a "Personalized Advantage Index" (PAI) reflecting an individual's expected reduction in distress (primary outcome) from HMP versus control.

RESULTS

A significant group × PAI interaction emerged (t658=3.30; P=.001), indicating that PAI scores moderated group differences in outcomes. A regression model that included repetitive negative thinking as the sole baseline predictor performed comparably well. Finally, we demonstrate the translation of a predictive model into personalized recommendations of expected benefit.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the results revealed the potential of a data-driven algorithm to inform which individuals are most likely to benefit from a meditation app. Such an algorithm could be used to objectively communicate expected benefits to individuals, allowing them to make more informed decisions about whether a meditation app is appropriate for them.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04426318; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04426318.

From promise to practice: towards the realisation of AI-informed mental health care

In this Series paper, we explore the promises and challenges of artificial intelligence (AI)-based precision medicine tools in mental health care from clinical, ethical, and regulatory perspectives. The real-world implementation of these tools is increasingly considered the prime solution for key issues in mental health, such as delayed, inaccurate, and inefficient care delivery. Similarly, machine-learning-based empirical strategies are becoming commonplace in psychiatric research because of their potential to adequately deconstruct the biopsychosocial complexity of mental health disorders, and hence to improve nosology of prognostic and preventive paradigms. However, the implementation steps needed to translate these promises into practice are currently hampered by multiple interacting challenges. These obstructions range from the current technology-distant state of clinical practice, over the lack of valid real-world databases required to feed data-intensive AI algorithms, to model development and validation considerations being disconnected from the core principles of clinical utility and ethical acceptability. In this Series paper, we provide recommendations on how these challenges could be addressed from an interdisciplinary perspective to pave the way towards a framework for mental health care, leveraging the combined strengths of human intelligence and AI.

Expectations for Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Psychiatry

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Artificial intelligence (AI) is often presented as a transformative technology for clinical medicine even though the current technology maturity of AI is low. The purpose of this narrative review is to describe the complex reasons for the low technology maturity and set realistic expectations for the safe, routine use of AI in clinical medicine.

RECENT FINDINGS

For AI to be productive in clinical medicine, many diverse factors that contribute to the low maturity level need to be addressed. These include technical problems such as data quality, dataset shift, black-box opacity, validation and regulatory challenges, and human factors such as a lack of education in AI, workflow changes, automation bias, and deskilling. There will also be new and unanticipated safety risks with the introduction of AI. The solutions to these issues are complex and will take time to discover, develop, validate, and implement. However, addressing the many problems in a methodical manner will expedite the safe and beneficial use of AI to augment medical decision making in psychiatry.

Metaverse as a possible tool for reshaping schema modes in treating personality disorders

Personality disorders (PD) are usually treated with face-to-face sessions and/or digital mental health services. Among many schools of therapies, schema therapy stands out because rather than simply targeting the symptoms of PD, it cordially targets the cause of PD and heals the early maladaptive schema, thus is exceptionally good at soothing emotional disturbances before enacting cognitive restructuring, resulting in long-term efficacy. However, according to Piaget's genetic epistemology, the unmet needs lie in the fact that the schemata that determine the adaptive behavior can only be formed in the interaction with the real world that the patient is living in and reconsolidated by the feedback from the object world upon the patient's newly-formed behavior. Therefore, in order to reshape the patient's schema modes to support adaptive behavior and regain emotional regulation capabilities of the healthy adult, one may have to reconstruct the object world surrounding the patient. Metaverse, the bestowed successor to the Internet with the cardinal feature of "the sense of full presence," can become a powerful tool to reconstruct a new object world for the patient with the prescription of a psychotherapist, so as to transform the treatment techniques in schema therapy into the natural autobiographical experiences of patients in the new object world, thus gradually reshape the patient's schema modes that can ultimately result in an adaptive, and more inclusive, interaction with the real world. This work describes the underlying theory, the mechanism, the process, and ethical considerations of such promising technology for the not-too-far future.