SARS-CoV-2 was already spreading in France in late December 2019

Respiratory tract samples collected from patients in a region of Quebec, Canada, indicate the absence of early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 infection

BACKGROUND

The first documented case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in Quebec was confirmed on February 27, 2020. Retracing the first cases that occur within a geographical region may provide insight regarding the evolution and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in that region because the spread of undiagnosed cases may facilitate the initial community amplification of the virus.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of respiratory tract samples collected for influenza testing in a region of Quebec, Canada, to look for evidence of early circulation of SARS-CoV-2. Frozen nucleic acid extracts initially collected for influenza testing between January 1 and February 20, 2020, were tested for SARS-CoV-2 using a reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction assay.

RESULTS

During the study period, 1,440 of 2,121 (67.9%) nucleic acid extracts from individual patients were available for retrospective testing. None of the samples tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that SARS-CoV-2 was not circulating within the region before February 20, 2020, because many samples, representing more than two-thirds of all samples tested for influenza during early 2020, were tested. Further studies using a similar methodology to determine the date of onset of SARS-CoV-2 in different countries and geographic areas could enhance our understanding of the current pandemic.

A parsimonious approach for spatial transmission and heterogeneity in the COVID-19 propagation

Raw data on the number of deaths at a country level generally indicate a spatially variable distribution of COVID-19 incidence. An important issue is whether this pattern is a consequence of environmental heterogeneities, such as the climatic conditions, during the course of the outbreak. Another fundamental issue is to understand the spatial spreading of COVID-19. To address these questions, we consider four candidate epidemiological models with varying complexity in terms of initial conditions, contact rates and non-local transmissions, and we fit them to French mortality data with a mixed probabilistic-ODE approach. Using statistical criteria, we select the model with non-local transmission corresponding to a diffusion on the graph of counties that depends on the geographic proximity, with time-dependent contact rate and spatially constant parameters. This suggests that in a geographically middle size centralized country such as France, once the epidemic is established, the effect of global processes such as restriction policies and sanitary measures overwhelms the effect of local factors. Additionally, this approach reveals the latent epidemiological dynamics including the local level of immunity, and allows us to evaluate the role of non-local interactions on the future spread of the disease.

Doubled mortality rate during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: quantifying what is not captured by surveillance

Objectives

It is important to quantify the true burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in different countries, to enable informed decisions about imposing and relaxing control measures. COVID-19 surveillance data fails in this respect, as it is influenced by different definitions, control policies and capacities. This article aims to quantify excess mortality and estimate the distribution between COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 causes of death.

Study design

Observational study and mathematical modelling.

Methods

Publicly available data from multiple institutional sources were used and an in-depth analysis was carried out of deaths from all causes between 2015 and 2020 in Italy at the national, regional and local level. Excess mortality over time and space was first explored, followed by an assessment of how this related to COVID-19 surveillance and, ultimately, assuming a fixed male:female ratio, a model was developed and applied to estimate the proportions of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 excess mortality in 2020.

Results

In Italy, the mortality rate doubled in March and April 2020 compared with data from 2015 to 2019 (+109%, when considering municipalites with >10.000 inhabitants), with excess mortality reaching >600% in large municipalities in northern areas. Notified COVID-19 deaths accounted for only 43.5% (regional range: 43–62%) of excess mortality. It is estimated that more than two-thirds of excess deaths that were not captured by surveillance are non-COVID-19 deaths, which could be a result of the excess burden on the health systems, in addition to reduced demand and supply of other non-COVID healthcare services.

Conclusions

The impact of COVID-19 during the early stages of the pandemic is much larger than official figures have reported. Monitoring excess mortality helps to capture the full effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, which differs between regions in Italy and which might have resulted in significant indirect effects on the well-being of the population. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic has also resulted in significant indirect effects on the well-being of the population.

Timing the SARS-CoV-2 Index Case in Hubei Province

Understanding when SARS-CoV-2 emerged is critical to evaluating our current approach to monitoring novel zoonotic pathogens and understanding the failure of early containment and mitigation efforts for COVID-19. We employed a coalescent framework to combine retrospective molecular clock inference with forward epidemiological simulations to determine how long SARS-CoV-2 could have circulated prior to the time of the most recent common ancestor. Our results define the period between mid-October and mid-November 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Hubei province. By characterizing the likely dynamics of the virus before it was discovered, we show that over two-thirds of SARS-CoV-2-like zoonotic events would be self-limited, dying out without igniting a pandemic. Our findings highlight the shortcomings of zoonosis surveillance approaches for detecting highly contagious pathogens with moderate mortality rates.

Camostat mesylate against SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19-Rationale, dosing and safety

The coronavirus responsible for COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, utilizes a viral membrane spike protein for host cell entry. For the virus to engage in host membrane fusion, SARS-CoV-2 utilizes the human transmembrane surface protease, TMPRSS2, to cleave and activate the spike protein. Camostat mesylate, an orally available well-known serine protease inhibitor, is a potent inhibitor of TMPRSS2 and has been hypothesized as a potential antiviral drug against COVID-19. In vitro human cell and animal studies have shown that camostat mesylate inhibits virus-cell membrane fusion and hence viral replication. In mice, camostat mesylate treatment during acute infection with influenza, also dependent on TMPRSS2, leads to a reduced viral load. The decreased viral load may be associated with an improved patient outcome. Because camostat mesylate is administered as an oral drug, it may be used in outpatients as well as inpatients at all disease stages of SARS-CoV-2 infection if it is shown to be an effective antiviral agent. Clinical trials are currently ongoing to test whether this well-known drug could be repurposed and utilized to combat the current pandemic. In the following, we will review current knowledge on camostat mesylate mode of action, potential benefits as an antiviral agent and ongoing clinical trials.

Unexpected high frequency of unspecific reactivities by testing pre-epidemic blood specimens from Europe and Africa with SARS-CoV-2 IgG-IgM antibody rapid tests points to IgM as the Achilles heel

We aimed to evaluate the rates of false-positive test results of three rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) and IgM detection. Two serum panels from patients hospitalized in Paris, France, and from patients living in Bangui, Central African Republic, acquired before the 2019 COVID-19 outbreak, were tested by 3 CE IVD-labeled RDTs for SARS-CoV-2 serology (BIOSYNEX® COVID-19 BSS [IgG/IgM]; SIENNA™ COVID-19 IgG/IgM Rapid Test Cassette; NG-Test® IgG-IgM COVID-19). Detectable IgG or IgM reactivities could be observed in 31 (3.43%) of the 902 IgG and IgM bands of the 3 RDTs used with all pre-epidemic sera. The frequencies of IgG/IgM reactivities were similar for European (3.20%) and African (3.55%) sera. IgM reactivities were observed in 9 European and 14 African sera, while IgG reactivity was observed in only 1 African serum (15.1% vs. 0.66%). The test NG-Test® IgG-IgM COVID-19 showed the highest rates of IgG or IgM reactivities (6.12% [18/294]), while the test BIOSYNEX® COVID-19 BSS (IgG/IgM) showed the lowest rate (1.36% [4/294]). Some combinations of 2 RDTs in series allowed decreasing significantly the risk of false-positive test results. Our observations point to the risk of false-positive reactivities when using currently available RDT for SARS-CoV-2 serological screening, especially for the IgM band, even if the test is CE IVD-labeled and approved by national health authorities, and provide the rational basis for confirmatory testing by another RDT in case of positive initial screening.

Peaks of Fine Particulate Matter May Modulate the Spreading and Virulence of COVID-19

A probe of a patient, seeking help in an emergency ward of a French hospital in late December 2019 because of Influenza like symptoms, was retrospectively tested positive to COVID-19. Despite the early appearance of the virus in Europe, the prevalence and virulence appeared to be low for several weeks, before the spread and severity of symptoms increased exponentially, yet with marked spatial and temporal differences. Here, we compare the possible linkages between peaks of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and the sudden, explosive increase of hospitalizations and mortality rates in the Swiss Canton of Ticino, and the Greater Paris and London regions. We argue that these peaks of fine particulate matter are primarily occurring during thermal inversion of the boundary layer of the atmosphere. We also discuss the influence of Saharan dust intrusions on the COVID-19 outbreak observed in early 2020 on the Canary Islands. We deem it both reasonable and plausible that high PM2.5 concentrations-favored by air temperature inversions or Saharan dust intrusions-are not only modulating but even more so boosting severe outbreaks of COVID-19. Moreover, desert dust events-besides enhancing PM2.5 concentrations-can be a vector for fungal diseases, thereby exacerbating COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. We conclude that the overburdening of the health services and hospitals as well as the high over-mortality observed in various regions of Europe in spring 2020 may be linked to peaks of PM2.5 and likely particular weather situations that have favored the spread and enhanced the virulence of the virus. In the future, we recommended to monitor not only the prevalence of the virus, but also to consider the occurrence of weather situations that can lead to sudden, very explosive COVID-19 outbreaks.

No Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 Circulation in Rome (Italy) during the Pre-Pandemic Period: Results of a Retrospective Surveillance

In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the COVID-19 outbreak recorded over the previous months could be characterized as a pandemic. The first known Italian SARS-CoV-2 positive case was reported on 21 February. In some countries, cases of suspected “COVID-19-like pneumonia” had been reported earlier than those officially accepted by health authorities. This has led many investigators to check preserved biological or environmental samples to see whether the virus was detectable on dates prior to those officially stated. With regard to Italy, the results of a microbiological screening in sewage samples collected between the end of February and the beginning of April 2020 from wastewaters in Milan (Northern Italy) and Rome (Central Italy) showed presence of SARS-CoV-2. In the present study, we evaluated, by means of a standardized diagnostic method, the SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence amongst patients affected by severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARI) in an academic hospital located in Central Italy during the period of 1 November 2019–1 March 2020. Overall, the number of emergency room (ER) visits during the investigated period was 13,843. Of these, 1208 had an influenza-like syndrome, but only 166 matched the definition of SARI as stated in the study protocol. A total of 52 SARI cases were laboratory confirmed as influenza: 26 as a type B virus, 25 as a type A, and 1 as both viruses. Although about 17% of the total sample had laboratory or radiological data compatible with COVID-19, all the nasopharyngeal swabs stored underwent SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR and tested negative. Based on our result, it is confirmed that the COVID-19 pandemic spread did not start prior to the “official” onset in central Italy. Routine monitoring of SARI causative agents at the local level is critical for reporting epidemiologic and etiologic trends that may differ from one country to another and also among different influenza seasons. This has a practical impact on prevention and control strategies.

Chasing the ghost of infection past: identifying thresholds of change during the COVID-19 infection in Spain

One of the largest nationwide bursts of the first COVID-19 outbreak occurred in Spain, where infection expanded in densely populated areas through March 2020. We analyse the cumulative growth curves of reported cases and deaths in all Spain and two highly populated regions, Madrid and Catalonia, identifying changes and sudden shifts in their exponential growth rate through segmented Poisson regressions. We associate these breakpoints with a timeline of key events and containment measures, and data on policy stringency and citizen mobility. Results were largely consistent for infections and deaths in all territories, showing four major shifts involving 19-71% reductions in growth rates originating from infections before 3 March and on 5-8, 10-12 and 14-18 March, but no identifiable effect of the strengthened lockdown of 29-30 March. Changes in stringency and mobility were only associated to the latter two shifts, evidencing an early deceleration in COVID-19 spread associated to personal hygiene and social distancing recommendations, followed by a stronger decrease when lockdown was enforced, leading to the contention of the outbreak by mid-April. This highlights the importance of combining public health communication strategies and hard confinement measures to contain epidemics.

History of the COVID-19 pandemic: Origin, explosion, worldwide spreading

The SARS-CoV-2 virus of the COVID-19 pandemic, that is presently devastating the entire world, had been active well before January of this year, when its pathogenic potential exploded full force in Wuhan. It had caused the onset of small disease outbreaks in China, and probably elsewhere as well, which failed to reach epidemic potential. The distant general origin of its zoonosis can be traced back to the ecosystem changes that have decreased biodiversity, greatly facilitating the contacts between humans and the animal reservoirs that carry pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2. These reservoirs are the bats. The transition between the limited outbreaks that had occurred through 2019 and the epidemic explosion of December–January was made possible by the great amplification of the general negative conditions that had caused the preceding small outbreaks. In the light of what we have now learned, the explosion was predictable, and could have happened wherever the conditions that had allowed it, could be duplicated. What could not have been predicted was the second transition, from epidemic to pandemic. Research has now revealed that the globalization of the infection appears to have been caused by a mutation in the spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2, that has dramatically increased its transmissibility.

Retrospective Post-mortem SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR of Autopsies with COVID-19-Suggestive Pathology Supports the Absence of Lethal Community Spread in Basel, Switzerland, before February 2020

INTRODUCTION

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has rapidly spread around the world. While the first case was recorded in Hubei in December 2019, the extent of early community spread in Central Europe before this period is unknown. A high proportion of asymptomatic cases and undocumented infections, high transmissibility, and phylogenetic genomic diversity have engendered the controversial possibility of early international community spread of SARS-CoV-2 before its emergence in China.

METHODS

To assess the early presence of lethal COVID-19 in Switzerland, we retrospectively performed an analysis of deaths at University Hospital Basel between October 2019 and February 2020 (n = 310), comparing the incidence of clinical causes of death with March 2020 (n = 72), the month during which the first lethal COVID-19 cases in Basel were reported. Trends of COVID-19-suggestive sequelae, such as bronchopneumonia with organization, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), or pulmonary embolisms (PE) were evaluated. In cases where autopsy was performed (n = 71), analogous analyses were conducted on the cause of death and pulmonary histological findings. Eight cases with a COVID-19-suggestive clinical history and histopathology between October 2019 and February 2020, and 3 cases before October 2019, were selected for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR.

RESULTS

A statistically significant rise in pulmonary causes of death was observed in March 2020 (p = 0.03), consistent with the reported emergence of lethal COVID-19 in Switzerland. A rise in lethal bronchopneumonia was observed between December 2019 and January 2020, which was likely seasonal. The incidence of lethal ARDS and PE was uniformly low between October 2019 and February 2020. All autopsy cases analyzed by means of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR yielded negative results.

CONCLUSION

Our data suggest the absence of early lethal community spread of COVID-19 in Basel before its initial reported emergence in Switzerland in March 2020.

Covid-19 pandemic and food: Present knowledge, risks, consumers fears and safety

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 is a pandemic disease that has paralyzed social life and the economy around the world since the end of 2019, and which has so far killed nearly 600,000 people. The rapidity of its spread and the lack of detailed research on the course and methods of transmission significantly impede both its eradication and prevention.

SCOPE AND APPROACH

Due to the high transmission rate and fatality resulting from COVID-19 disease, the paper focuses on analyzing the current state of knowledge about SARS-CoV-2 as well as its potential connection with food as a source of pathogen and infection.

KEY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

There is currently no evidence (scientific publications, WHO, EFSA etc.) that COVID-19 disease can spread directly through food and the human digestive system. However, according to the hypothesis regarding the primary transmission of the virus, the source of which was food of animal origin (meat of wild animals), as well as the fact that food is a basic necessity for humans, it is worth emphasizing that food can, if not directly, be a carrier of the virus. Particular attention should be paid to this indirect pathway when considering the potential for the spread of an epidemic and the development of prevention principles.

German and international studies on SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence

Since the beginning of the year 2020, the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has spread globally at a tremendous pace. Studies on the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the population help estimate the number of people that have already been infected. They also allow an estimate of the number of undetected infections i.e. infections that do not appear in data on officially reported cases. The interpretation of study results needs to consider bias from selective sampling and the diagnostic test properties. To promote networking and co-operation between scientists, the Robert Koch Institute has compiled an overview of the seroepidemiological studies conducted in Germany on its website, which is regularly updated. The RKI conducts searches, for example of press releases, study registry entries or preprint server publications, and contacts the lead investigators of these studies. Of the 40 studies contacted so far, 24 have already provided information (as of 25.06.2020). We can differentiate between studies of the general population, of selected population groups such as healthcare workers, or of ongoing cohorts. This article provides an overview of such studies from Germany, but also of selected international studies. A special focus is set on studies of children and adolescents, which are now of particular interest due to the planned reopening of childcare facilities and schools.

Modeling the second wave of COVID-19 infections in France and Italy via a stochastic SEIR model

COVID-19 has forced quarantine measures in several countries across the world. These measures have proven to be effective in significantly reducing the prevalence of the virus. To date, no effective treatment or vaccine is available. In the effort of preserving both public health and the economical and social textures, France and Italy governments have partially released lockdown measures. Here, we extrapolate the long-term behavior of the epidemic in both countries using a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model, where parameters are stochastically perturbed with a lognormal distribution to handle the uncertainty in the estimates of COVID-19 prevalence and to simulate the presence of super-spreaders. Our results suggest that uncertainties in both parameters and initial conditions rapidly propagate in the model and can result in different outcomes of the epidemic leading or not to a second wave of infections. Furthermore, the presence of super-spreaders adds instability to the dynamics, making the control of the epidemic more difficult. Using actual knowledge, asymptotic estimates of COVID-19 prevalence can fluctuate of the order of 10×10⁶ units in both countries.

A discrete-time-evolution model to forecast progress of Covid-19 outbreak

Here we present a discrete-time-evolution model with one day interval to forecast the propagation of Covid-19. The proposed model can be easily implemented with daily updated data sets of the pandemic publicly available by distinct online sources. It has only two adjustable parameters and it predicts the evolution of the total number of infected people in a country for the next 14 days if parameters do not change during the analyzed period. The model incorporates the main aspects of the disease such as the fact that there are asymptomatic and symptomatic phases (both capable of propagating the virus), and that these phases take almost two weeks before the infected person status evolves to the next (asymptomatic becomes symptomatic or symptomatic becomes either recovered or dead). A striking advantage of the model for its implementation by the health sector is that it gives directly the number of total infected people in each day (in thousands, tens of thousands or hundred of thousands). Here, the model is tested with data from Brazil, UK and South Korea, presenting low error rates on the prediction of the evolution of the disease in all analyzed countries. We hope this model may be a useful tool to estimate the propagation of the disease.

SARS-Cov-2 trajectory predictions and scenario simulations from a global perspective: a modelling study

The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 emerging from Wuhan, China has developed into a global epidemic. Here, we combine both human mobility and non-pharmaceutical interventions (social-distancing and suspected-cases isolation) into SEIR transmission model to understand how coronavirus transmits in a global environment. Dynamic trends of region-specific time-variant reproduction number, social-distancing rate, work-resumption rate, and suspected-cases isolation rate have been estimated and plotted for each region by fitting stochastic transmission processes to the real total confirmed cases reported of each region. We find after shutdown in Wuhan, the reproduction number in Wuhan greatly declined from 6·982 (95% CI 2·558-14·668) on January 23rd, 2020 to 1.130 (95% CI 0.289-3.279) on February 7th, 2020, and there was a higher intervention level in terms of social-distancing and suspected-cases isolation in Wuhan than the Chinese average and Western average, for the period from the shutdown in Wuhan to mid-March. Future epidemic trajectories of Western countries up to October 10th, 2020, have been predicted with 95% confidence intervals. Through the scenario simulation, we discover the benefits of earlier international travel ban and rigorous intervention strategies, and the significance of non-pharmaceutical interventions. From a global perspective, it is vital for each country to control the risks of imported cases, and execute rigorous non-pharmaceutical interventions before successful vaccination development.

Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves

Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society.

The discounted value of human lives lost due to COVID-19 in France

Background: This study estimates the total discounted value of human lives lost (TDVHL) due to COVID-19 in France as of 14 September 2020. Methods: The human capital approach (HCA) model was used to estimate the TDVHL of the 30,916 human lives lost due to COVID-19 in France; i.e., assuming a discount rate of 3% and the national average life expectancy at birth of 83.13 years. To test the robustness of the estimated TDVHL, the model was rerun (a) using 5% and 10% discount rates, while holding the French average life expectancy constant; and (b) consecutively substituting national life expectancy with the world average life expectancy of 73.2 years and the world highest life expectancy of 88.17 years.  Results: The human lives lost had a TDVHL of Int$10,492,290,194, and an average value of Int$339,381 per human life lost. Rerun of the HCA model with 5% and 10% discount rates decreased TDVHL by Int$1,304,764,602 (12.4%) and Int$3,506,938,312 (33%), respectively. Re-calculation of the model with the world average life expectancy decreased the TDVHL by Int$7,750,187,267 (73.87%). Contrastingly, re-estimation of the model with the world's highest life expectancy augmented TDVHL by Int$3,744,263,463 (35.7%). Conclusions: The average discounted economic value per human life lost due to COVID-19 of Int$339,381 is 8-fold the France gross domestic product per person. Such evidence constitutes an additional argument for health policy makers when making a case for increased investment to optimise France's International Health Regulation capacities and coverage of essential health services, and safely managed water and sanitation services.

Characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a highly transmissible and pathogenic coronavirus that emerged in late 2019 and has caused a pandemic of acute respiratory disease, named 'coronavirus disease 2019' (COVID-19), which threatens human health and public safety. In this Review, we describe the basic virology of SARS-CoV-2, including genomic characteristics and receptor use, highlighting its key difference from previously known coronaviruses. We summarize current knowledge of clinical, epidemiological and pathological features of COVID-19, as well as recent progress in animal models and antiviral treatment approaches for SARS-CoV-2 infection. We also discuss the potential wildlife hosts and zoonotic origin of this emerging virus in detail.

Hospital and Population-Based Evidence for COVID-19 Early Circulation in the East of France

BACKGROUND

Understanding SARS-CoV-2 dynamics and transmission is a serious issue. Its propagation needs to be modeled and controlled. The Alsace region in the East of France has been among the first French COVID-19 clusters in 2020.

METHODS

We confront evidence from three independent and retrospective sources: a population-based survey through internet, an analysis of the medical records from hospital emergency care services, and a review of medical biology laboratory data. We also check the role played in virus propagation by a large religious meeting that gathered over 2000 participants from all over France mid-February in Mulhouse.

RESULTS

Our results suggest that SARS-CoV-2 was circulating several weeks before the first officially recognized case in Alsace on 26 February 2020 and the sanitary alert on 3 March 2020. The religious gathering seems to have played a role for secondary dissemination of the epidemic in France, but not in creating the local outbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results illustrate how the integration of data coming from multiple sources could help trigger an early alarm in the context of an emerging disease. Good information data systems, able to produce earlier alerts, could have avoided a general lockdown in France.

COVID19: an announced pandemic

A severe upper respiratory tract syndrome caused by the new coronavirus has now spread to the entire world as a highly contagious pandemic. The large scale explosion of the disease is conventionally traced back to January of this year in the Chinese province of Hubei, the wet markets of the principal city of Wuhan being assumed to have been the specific causative locus of the sudden explosion of the infection. A number of findings that are now coming to light show that this interpretation of the origin and history of the pandemic is overly simplified. A number of variants of the coronavirus would in principle have had the ability to initiate the pandemic well before January of this year. However, even if the COVID-19 had become, so to say, ready, conditions in the local environment would have had to prevail to induce the loss of the biodiversity's "dilution effect" that kept the virus under control, favoring its spillover from its bat reservoir to the human target. In the absence of these appropriate conditions only abortive attempts to initiate the pandemic could possibly occur: a number of them did indeed occur in China, and probably elsewhere as well. These conditions were unfortunately present at the wet marked in Wuhan at the end of last year.

SARS-CoV-2 multifaceted interaction with human host. Part I: What we have learnt and done so far, and the still unknown realities

SARS-CoV-2, the causing agent of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, is a beta-coronavirus which has 80% genetic homology with SARS-CoV, but displays increased virulence and transmissibility. Initially, SARS-CoV-2 was considered a respiratory virus generally causing a mild disease, only severe and fatal in the elderly and individuals with underlying conditions. Severe illnesses and fatalities were attributed to a cytokine storm, an excessive response from the host immune system. However, with the number of infections over 10 millions and still soaring, the insidious and stealthy nature of the virus has emerged, as it causes a vast array of diverse unexpected symptoms among infected individuals, including the young and healthy. It has become evident that besides infecting the respiratory tract, SARS-CoV-2 can affect many organs, possibly through the infection of the endothelium. This review presents an overview of our learning curve with the novel virus emergence, transmission, pathology, biological properties and host-interactions. It also briefly describes remedial measures taken until an effective vaccine is available, that is non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce the viral spread and the repurposing of existing drugs, approved or in development for other conditions to eliminate the virus or mitigate the cytokine storm.

Ecologic association between influenza and COVID-19 mortality rates in European countries

Ecologic studies investigating COVID-19 mortality determinants, used to make predictions and design public health control measures, generally focused on population-based variable counterparts of individual-based risk factors. Influenza is not causally associated with COVID-19, but shares population-based determinants, such as similar incidence/mortality trends, transmission patterns, efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions, comorbidities and underdiagnosis. We investigated the ecologic association between influenza mortality rates and COVID-19 mortality rates in the European context. We considered the 3-year average influenza (2014-2016) and COVID-19 (31 May 2020) crude mortality rates in 34 countries using EUROSTAT and ECDC databases and performed correlation and regression analyses. The two variables - log transformed, showed significant Spearman's correlation ρ = 0.439 (P = 0.01), and regression coefficients, b = 0.743 (95% confidence interval, 0.272-1.214; R2 = 0.244; P = 0.003), b = 0.472 (95% confidence interval, 0.067-0.878; R2 = 0.549; P = 0.02), unadjusted and adjusted for confounders (population size and cardiovascular disease mortality), respectively. Common significant determinants of both COVID-19 and influenza mortality rates were life expectancy, influenza vaccination in the elderly (direct associations), number of hospital beds per population unit and crude cardiovascular disease mortality rate (inverse associations). This analysis suggests that influenza mortality rates were independently associated with COVID-19 mortality rates in Europe, with implications for public health preparedness, and implies preliminary undetected SARS-CoV-2 spread in Europe.

Autism and COVID-19: A Case Series in a Neurodevelopmental Unit

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has become pandemic and can impact individuals with autism as well. Here, we report a case series admitted to a neurobehavioral unit dedicated to challenging behaviors in patients with autism.

METHODS

We describe 16 patients (mean age 20.8 years; range 12-43 years; 76% male) with autism hospitalized between March 2020 and mid-April 2020 for challenging behaviors, for which COVID-19 disease has been suspected and who needed both psychiatric and medical care. A close cooperation with the Infectious and Tropical Diseases Department was organized to limit viral spread and training sessions (e.g., hygiene, clinical COVID-19 monitoring, virus testing) were given to staff members.

RESULTS

Most patients had severe autism and severe/moderate intellectual disability. Eleven patients were already in the unit when it was hit by the pandemic, and five were admitted from the community. Based on a virus search via reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or serology at the 2-month follow-up, we had 11 confirmed COVID-19 cases. The main COVID-19 symptoms included benign upper respiratory infection signs (N = 9, 81.8%), diarrhea (N = 7, 63.6%), fatigue (N = 7, 63.6%), and respiratory signs (N = 5, 45.5%), including one patient who needed oxygen therapy. Three patients remained asymptomatic and COVID-19-free (including two under immunosuppressive treatments). Among the symptomatic patients, five showed atypical behaviors that we understood as idiosyncratic manifestations (e.g., irrepressible licking behavior). On day 14, only one patient with respiratory dysfunction still had a positive RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2 test.

CONCLUSIONS

Organizing a COVID+ unit for patients with autism is realistic and requires close collaboration with infectologists. We believe that this initiative should be promoted to limit both the spread of the virus and the ostracism of patients with autism and challenging behaviors.

Tracking the onset date of the community spread of SARS-CoV-2 in western countries

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) rapidly spread around the world during 2020, but the precise time in which the virus began to spread locally is difficult to trace for most countries. Here, we estimate the probable onset date of the community spread of SARS-CoV-2 for heavily affected countries from Western Europe and the Americas on the basis of the cumulative number of deaths reported during the early stage of the epidemic. Our results support that SARS-CoV-2 probably started to spread locally in all western countries analysed between mid-January and mid-February 2020, thus long before community transmission was officially recognised and control measures were implemented.

COVID-19 breakthroughs: separating fact from fiction

The newly recognised coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, causative agent of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), has caused a pandemic with huge ramifications for human interactions around the globe. As expected, research efforts to understand the virus and curtail the disease are moving at a frantic pace alongside the spread of rumours, speculations and falsehoods. In this article, we aim to clarify the current scientific view behind several claims or controversies related to COVID-19. Starting with the origin of the virus, we then discuss the effect of ibuprofen and nicotine on the severity of the disease. We highlight the knowledge on fomites and SARS-CoV-2 and discuss the evidence and explications for a disproportionately stronger impact of COVID-19 on ethnic minorities, including a potential protective role for vitamin D. We further review what is known about the effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children, including their role in transmission of the disease, and conclude with the science on different mortality rates between different countries and whether this hints at the existence of more pathogenic cohorts of SARS-CoV-2.

Public health initiatives from hospitalized patients with COVID-19, China

BACKGROUND

Since December 2019, when it first occurred in Wuhan, China, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly worldwide via human-to-human transmission. We aimed to describe the epidemiological and demographic features of COVID-19 outside Wuhan.

METHODS

A single-center case series of 136 consecutive (from January 16 to February 17, 2020) patients with confirmed COVID-19 hospitalized in The First People's Hospital of Jingzhou, China, was retrospectively analyzed. Outcomes were followed up until February 19, 2020.

RESULTS

Of the 136 patients (median age, 49 years; interquartile range [IQR], 33-63 years; range, 0.3-83 years), 91 (67%) had been to Wuhan or contacted persons from Wuhan. Forty-five (33.1%) were familial clusters. The median incubation period was 6 days (IQR: 4-11 days). All children had an exact exposure history, family members with COVID-19, and "Mild/Moderate" symptoms at admission. Among the 64 elderly patients, 14 (21.9%) had no exposure history, and 43 (67.2%) had a chronic illness. All 11 (8.1%) "Severe/very severe" illness at onset cases and 5 (3.7%) fatal cases were elderly patients. The duration from symptom onset to admission was positively correlated with the duration from symptom onset to endpoint. Overall, patients with a longer incubation period had more severe outcomes.

CONCLUSION

As high-risk susceptible groups, strong protection should be implemented for children and the elderly. Universal screening should be performed for people with a clear exposure history, even lacking apparent symptoms. Given the rapid progression of COVID-19, people should be admitted quickly following symptom onset.

No evidence of SARS-CoV-2 circulation before identification of the first Swiss SARS-CoV-2 case

•Retrospective RT-PCR was performed for SARS-CoV-2 on frozen nasopharyngeal swabs of patients with lower respiratory tract infections collected in Western Switzerland between November 2019 and March 2020 •No case was identified before the first officially diagnosed cases •This suggests that the targeted screening approach was adequate when faced with difficulties in upscaling testing capacity

Evolutionary and structural analyses of SARS-CoV-2 D614G spike protein mutation now documented worldwide

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was declared on March 11, 2020 by the World Health Organization. As of the 31st of May, 2020, there have been more than 6 million COVID-19 cases diagnosed worldwide and over 370,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins. Thousands of SARS-CoV-2 strains have been sequenced to date, providing a valuable opportunity to investigate the evolution of the virus on a global scale. We performed a phylogenetic analysis of over 1,225 SARS-CoV-2 genomes spanning from late December 2019 to mid-March 2020. We identified a missense mutation, D614G, in the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, which has emerged as a predominant clade in Europe (954 of 1,449 (66%) sequences) and is spreading worldwide (1,237 of 2,795 (44%) sequences). Molecular dating analysis estimated the emergence of this clade around mid-to-late January (10-25 January) 2020. We also applied structural bioinformatics to assess the potential impact of D614G on the virulence and epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. In silico analyses on the spike protein structure suggests that the mutation is most likely neutral to protein function as it relates to its interaction with the human ACE2 receptor. The lack of clinical metadata available prevented our investigation of association between viral clade and disease severity phenotype. Future work that can leverage clinical outcome data with both viral and human genomic diversity is needed to monitor the pandemic.

Interest of the cellular population data analysis as an aid in the early diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection

Introduction

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) is characterized by a high contagiousness requiring isolation measures. At this time, diagnosis is based on the positivity of specific RT‐PCR and/or chest computed tomography scan, which are time‐consuming and may delay diagnosis. Complete blood count (CBC) can potentially contribute to the diagnosis of COVID‐19. We studied whether the analysis of cellular population data (CPD), provided as part of CBC‐Diff analysis by the DxH 800 analyzers (Beckman Coulter), can help to identify SARS‐CoV‐2 infection.

Methods

Cellular population data of the different leukocyte subpopulations were analyzed in 137 controls, 322 patients with proven COVID‐19 (COVID+), and 285 patients for whom investigations were negative for SARS‐CoV‐2 infection (COVID−). When CPD of COVID+ were different from controls and COVID− patients, we used receiver operating characteristic analysis to test the discriminating capacity of the individual parameters. Using a random forest classifier, we developed the algorithm based on the combination of 4 monocyte CPD to discriminate COVID+ from COVID− patients. This algorithm was tested prospectively in a series of 222 patients referred to the emergency unit.

Results

Among the 222 patients, 86 were diagnosed as COVID‐19 and 60.5% were correctly identified using the discriminating protocol. Among the 136 COVID− patients, 10.3% were misclassified (specificity 89.7%, sensitivity 60.5%). False negatives were observed mainly in patients with a low inflammatory state whereas false positives were mainly seen in patients with sepsis.

Conclusion

Consideration of CPD could constitute a first step and potentially aid in the early diagnosis of COVID‐19.

COVID-19 Is a Multifaceted Challenging Pandemic Which Needs Urgent Public Health Interventions

Until less than two decades ago, all known human coronaviruses (CoV) caused diseases so mild that they did not stimulate further advanced CoV research. In 2002 and following years, the scenario changed dramatically with the advent of the new more pathogenic CoVs, including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndome (SARS-CoV-1), Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome (MERS)-CoV, and the new zoonotic SARS-CoV-2, likely originated from bat species and responsible for the present coronavirus disease (COVID-19), which to date has caused 15,581,007 confirmed cases and 635,173 deaths in 208 countries, including Italy. SARS-CoV-2 transmission is mainly airborne via droplets generated by symptomatic patients, and possibly asymptomatic individuals during incubation of the disease, although for the latter, there are no certain data yet. However, research on asymptomatic viral infection is currently ongoing worldwide to elucidate the real prevalence and mortality of the disease. From a clinical point of view, COVID-19 would be defined as "COVID Planet " because it presents as a multifaceted disease, due to the large number of organs and tissues infected by the virus. Overall, based on the available published data, 80.9% of patients infected by SARS-CoV-2 develop a mild disease/infection, 13.8% severe pneumonia, 4.7% respiratory failure, septic shock, or multi-organ failure, and 3% of these cases are fatal, but mortality parameter is highly variable in different countries. Clinically, SARS-CoV-2 causes severe primary interstitial viral pneumonia and a "cytokine storm syndrome", characterized by a severe and fatal uncontrolled systemic inflammatory response triggered by the activation of interleukin 6 (IL-6) with development of endothelitis and generalized thrombosis that can lead to organ failure and death. Risk factors include advanced age and comorbidities including hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. Virus entry occurs via binding the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor present in almost all tissues and organs through the Spike (S) protein. Currently, SARS-CoV-2 infection is prevented by the use of masks, social distancing, and improved hand hygiene measures. This review summarizes the current knowledge on the main biological and clinical features of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, also focusing on the principal measures taken in some Italian regions to face the emergency and on the most important treatments used to manage the COVID-19 pandemic.

Protecting healthcare workers during COVID-19 pandemic with nanotechnology: A protocol for a new device from Egypt

The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is thought to have occurred first in Wuhan, China in December 2019, before spreading to over 120 countries in the months that followed. It was declared a “public health emergency of international concern” by the World Health Organization on January 31, 2020 and recognized as a pandemic on March 11, 2020. The primary route of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from human to human is through inhalation of respiratory droplets. Devising protective technologies for stopping the spread of the droplets of aerosol containing the viral particles is a vital requirement to curb the ongoing outbreak. However, the current generations of protective respirator masks in use are noted for their imperfect design and there is a need to develop their more advanced analogues, with higher blockage efficiency and the ability to deactivate the trapped bacteria and viruses. It is likely that one such design will be inspired by nanotechnologies. Here we describe a new design from Egypt, utilizing a reusable, recyclable, customizable, antimicrobial and antiviral respirator facial mask feasible for mass production. The novel design is based on the filtration system composed of a nanofibrous matrix of polylactic acid and cellulose acetate containing copper oxide nanoparticles and graphene oxide nanosheets and produced using the electrospinning technique. Simultaneously, the flat pattern fabricated from a thermoplastic composite material is used to provide a solid fit with the facial anatomy. This design illustrates an effort made in a developing setting to provide innovative solutions for combating the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic of potentially global significance.

Withaferin A: a potential therapeutic agent against COVID-19 infection

The outbreak and continued spread of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a preeminent global health threat that has resulted in the infection of over 11.5 million people worldwide. In addition, the pandemic has claimed the lives of over 530,000 people worldwide. Age and the presence of underlying comorbid conditions have been found to be key determinants of patient mortality. One such comorbidity is the presence of an oncological malignancy, with cancer patients exhibiting an approximate two-fold increase in mortality rate. Due to a lack of data, no consensus has been reached about the best practices for the diagnosis and treatment of cancer patients. Interestingly, two independent research groups have discovered that Withaferin A (WFA), a steroidal lactone with anti-inflammatory and anti-tumorigenic properties, may bind to the viral spike (S-) protein of SARS-CoV-2. Further, preliminary data from our research group has demonstrated that WFA does not alter expression of ACE2 in the lungs of tumor-bearing female mice. Downregulation of ACE2 has recently been demonstrated to increase the severity of COVID-19. Therefore, WFA demonstrates real potential as a therapeutic agent to treat or prevent the spread of COVID-19 due to the reported interference in viral S-protein to host receptor binding and its lack of effect on ACE2 expression in the lungs.

[Seroprevalence and SARS-CoV-2 testing in healthcare occupations]

The SARS-CoV‑2 causes a disease spectrum that includes asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections with subclinical manifestations but which can nevertheless still be potentially contagious. Evidence from SARS-CoV‑2 infected macaque monkeys and from studies with seasonal coronaviruses suggests that the infection is likely to produce an immunity that is protective for a certain period of time. Available test methods enable a high degree of reliability, e.g. if high-quality serological methods are combined. Although individual test results have to be interpreted with caution, serosurveillance in a tertiary eye care center and large eye research institute can reduce anxiety and provide clarity regarding the actual number of (unreported) SARS-CoV‑2 infections.

The COVID-19 pandemic: diverse contexts; different epidemics-how and why?

It is very exceptional that a new disease becomes a true pandemic. Since its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, has spread to nearly all countries of the world in only a few months. However, in different countries, the COVID-19 epidemic takes variable shapes and forms in how it affects communities. Until now, the insights gained on COVID-19 have been largely dominated by the COVID-19 epidemics and the lockdowns in China, Europe and the USA. But this variety of global trajectories is little described, analysed or understood. In only a few months, an enormous amount of scientific evidence on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 has been uncovered (knowns). But important knowledge gaps remain (unknowns). Learning from the variety of ways the COVID-19 epidemic is unfolding across the globe can potentially contribute to solving the COVID-19 puzzle. This paper tries to make sense of this variability-by exploring the important role that context plays in these different COVID-19 epidemics; by comparing COVID-19 epidemics with other respiratory diseases, including other coronaviruses that circulate continuously; and by highlighting the critical unknowns and uncertainties that remain. These unknowns and uncertainties require a deeper understanding of the variable trajectories of COVID-19. Unravelling them will be important for discerning potential future scenarios, such as the first wave in virgin territories still untouched by COVID-19 and for future waves elsewhere.

Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios

COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.