Evolutionary rescue in a changing world

Identifying robust strategies for assisted migration in a competitive stochastic metacommunity

Assisted migration (AM) is the translocation of species beyond their historical range to locations that are expected to be more suitable under future climate change. However, a relocated population may fail to establish in its donor community if there is high uncertainty in decision-making, climate, and interactions with the recipient ecological community. To quantify the benefit to persistence and risk of establishment failure of AM under different management scenarios (e.g., choosing target species, proportion of population to relocate, and optimal location to relocate), we built a stochastic metacommunity model to simulate several species reproducing, dispersing, and competing on a temperature gradient as temperature increases over time. Without AM, the species were vulnerable to climate change when they had low population sizes, short dispersal, and strong poleward competition. When relocating species that exemplified these traits, AM increased the long-term persistence of the species most when relocating a fraction of the donor population, even if the remaining population was very small or rapidly declining. This suggests that leaving behind a fraction of the population could be a robust approach, allowing managers to repeat AM in case they move the species to the wrong place and at the wrong time, especially when it is difficult to identify a species' optimal climate. We found that AM most benefitted species with low dispersal ability and least benefited species with narrow thermal tolerances, for which AM increased extinction risk on average. Although relocation did not affect the persistence of nontarget species in our simple competitive model, researchers will need to consider a more complete set of community interactions to comprehensively understand invasion potential.

Increasing temperature weakens the positive effect of genetic diversity on population growth

Genetic diversity and temperature increases associated with global climate change are known to independently influence population growth and extinction risk. Whether increasing temperature may influence the effect of genetic diversity on population growth, however, is not known. We address this issue in the model protist system Tetrahymena thermophila. We test the hypothesis that at temperatures closer to the species' thermal optimum (i.e., the temperature at which population growth is maximal, or T opt), genetic diversity should have a weaker effect on population growth compared to temperatures away from the thermal optimum. To do so, we grew populations of T. thermophila with varying levels of genetic diversity at increasingly warmer temperatures and quantified their intrinsic population growth rate, r. We found that genetic diversity increases population growth at cooler temperatures, but that as temperature increases, this effect weakens. We also show that a combination of changes in the amount of expressed genetic diversity (G) in r, plastic changes in population growth across temperatures (E), and strong G × E interactions underlie this temperature effect. Our results uncover important but largely overlooked temperature effects that have implications for the management of small populations with depauperate genetic stocks in an increasingly warming world.

Population genomics of Digitaria insularis from soybean areas in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Digitaria insularis is a weed species that has gained considerable importance in Brazil's soybean production areas that rely on glyphosate-resistant cultivars. Herbicide-resistant weed populations of this species have been reported in many regions in Brazil, first in the south, followed by later reports in the north. We hypothesized that the spread of herbicide-resistant D. insularis is facilitated by movement of agricultural machinery from the southern regions of Brazil.

RESULTS

Population genomics revealed a weak or no genetic structure (FST  = [0; 0.16]), moderate expected heterozygosity (HE  = 0.15; 0.44) and low inbreeding (FIS  = [-0.1; 0.1]) in D. insularis populations. Our data supported the hypothesis that herbicide resistance gene flow predominantly occurred in a south-to-north direction based on a migration analysis. We also found evidence of local adaptation of resistant populations in the northern soybean-growing regions of Brazil.

CONCLUSION

Evidence in our work suggests that gene flow of glyphosate-resistant D. insularis is associated with movement of agricultural machinery, although local selection pressure seems to play an important role in the evolution of herbicide resistance throughout the country. Our results suggest preventive practices such as equipment sanitation should be implemented to limit the spread of herbicide resistant D. insularis. © 2021 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Avoiding extinction under nonlinear environmental change: models of evolutionary rescue with plasticity

Rapid environmental changes are putting numerous species at risk of extinction. For migration-limited species, persistence depends on either phenotypic plasticity or evolutionary adaptation (evolutionary rescue). Current theory on evolutionary rescue typically assumes linear environmental change. Yet accelerating environmental change may pose a bigger threat. Here, we present a model of a species encountering an environment with accelerating or decelerating change, to which it can adapt through evolution or phenotypic plasticity (within-generational or transgenerational). We show that unless either form of plasticity is sufficiently strong or adaptive genetic variation is sufficiently plentiful, accelerating or decelerating environmental change increases extinction risk compared to linear environmental change for the same mean rate of environmental change.

Genome-wide analysis reveals associations between climate and regional patterns of adaptive divergence and dispersal in American pikas

Understanding the role of adaptation in species' responses to climate change is important for evaluating the evolutionary potential of populations and informing conservation efforts. Population genomics provides a useful approach for identifying putative signatures of selection and the underlying environmental factors or biological processes that may be involved. Here, we employed a population genomic approach within a space-for-time study design to investigate the genetic basis of local adaptation and reconstruct patterns of movement across rapidly changing environments in a thermally sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). Using genotypic data at 49,074 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we analyzed patterns of genome-wide diversity, structure, and migration along three independent elevational transects located at the northern extent (Tweedsmuir South Provincial Park, British Columbia, Canada) and core (North Cascades National Park, Washington, USA) of the Cascades lineage. We identified 899 robust outlier SNPs within- and among-transects. Of those annotated to genes with known function, many were linked with cellular processes related to climate stress including ATP-binding, ATP citrate synthase activity, ATPase activity, hormone activity, metal ion-binding, and protein-binding. Moreover, we detected evidence for contrasting patterns of directional migration along transects across geographic regions that suggest an increased propensity for American pikas to disperse among lower elevation populations at higher latitudes where environments are generally cooler. Ultimately, our data indicate that fine-scale demographic patterns and adaptive processes may vary among populations of American pikas, providing an important context for evaluating biotic responses to climate change in this species and other alpine-adapted mammals.

Warming Rates Alter Sequence of Disassembly in Experimental Communities

AbstractThe frequency, intensity, and duration of periods of extreme environmental warming are expected to rise over the next hundred years and play an increasing role in species loss resulting from climate change, and yet we know little about their potential future effects on variability in the composition of communities. This study analyzed patterns of species loss in a community of four rotifers and six ciliates exposed to different rates of extreme warming. Temperature of loss was positively correlated with warming rates for all species, consistent with theoretical frameworks suggesting that lower rates of warming increase exposure time and cumulative thermal stress at each temperature. The sequence of species loss during extreme warming depended on the environmental warming rate (i.e., warming rates had the capacity to drive reversals in the relative thermal tolerances of species), and changes in the sequence of species loss driven by the warming rate resulted in substantial variability in community composition. The results suggest that differences in warming rates across space and time may increase variability in community composition in ecosystems increasingly disturbed by extreme temperature, potentially altering interspecific interactions, the abiotic environment, and ecosystem function. Several ecological mechanisms may be responsible, singly or together, for changes in the sequence of species loss at different rates of warming, including (a) differences among species in their sensitivity to the intensity and duration of heat exposure, (b) the effects of warming rates on temperature-dependent interspecific interactions, and (c) differences in opportunities for evolution among species and across warming rates.

A branching process model of evolutionary rescue

Evolutionary rescue is the process whereby a declining population may start growing again, thus avoiding extinction, via an increase in the frequency of fitter genotypes. These genotypes may either already be present in the population in small numbers, or arise by mutation as the population declines. We present a simple two-type discrete-time branching process model and use it to obtain results such as the probability of rescue, the shape of the population growth curve of a rescued population, and the time until the first rescuing mutation occurs. Comparisons are made to existing results in the literature in cases where both the mutation rate and the selective advantage of the beneficial mutations are small.

Low Heritability but Significant Early Environmental Effects on Resting Metabolic Rate in a Wild Passerine

AbstractPredicting the impact of climate change on biodiversity requires understanding the adaptation potential of wild organisms. Evolutionary responses depend on the additive genetic variation associated with the phenotypic traits targeted by selection. We combine 5 years of cross-fostering experiments, measurements of resting metabolic rate (RMR) on nearly 200 wild collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis) nestlings, and animal models using a 17-year pedigree to evaluate the potential for an evolutionary response to changing environmental conditions. Contrary to other avian studies, we find no significant heritability of whole-organism, mass-independent, or mass-specific RMR, but we report a strong effect of nest environment instead. We therefore conclude that variation in nestling RMR is explained by variation in the early-life environment provided by the parents. We discuss possible underlying specific parental effects and the importance of taking different mechanisms into account to understand how animals phenotypically adapt (or fail to adapt) to climate change.

Rapid microgeographic evolution in response to climate change

Environmental change is predicted to accelerate into the future and will exert strong selection pressure on biota. Although many species may be fated to extinction, others may survive through their capacity to evolve rapidly at highly localized (i.e., microgeographic) scales. Yet, even as new examples have been discovered, the limits to such evolutionary responses have not often been evaluated. One of the first examples of microgeographic variation involved pond populations of wood frogs (Rana sylvatica). Although separated by just tens to hundreds of meters, these populations exhibited countergradient variation in intrinsic embryonic development rates when reared in a common garden. We repeated this experiment 17 years (approximately six to nine generations) later and found that microgeographic variation persists in contemporary populations. Furthermore, we found that contemporary embryos have evolved to develop 14-19% faster than those in 2001. Structural equation models indicate that the predominant cause for this response is likely due to changes in climate over the intervening 17 years. Despite potential for rapid and fine-scale evolution, demographic declines in populations experiencing the greatest changes in climate and habitat imply a limit to the species' ability to mitigate extreme environmental change.

Are immigrants outbred and unrelated? Testing standard assumptions in a wild metapopulation

Immigration into small recipient populations is expected to alleviate inbreeding and increase genetic variation, and hence facilitate population persistence through genetic and/or evolutionary rescue. Such expectations depend on three standard assumptions: that immigrants are outbred, unrelated to existing natives at arrival, and unrelated to each other. These assumptions are rarely explicitly verified, including in key field systems in evolutionary ecology. Yet, they could be violated due to non-random or repeated immigration from adjacent small populations. We combined molecular genetic marker data for 150-160 microsatellite loci with comprehensive pedigree data to test the three assumptions for a song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) population that is a model system for quantifying effects of inbreeding and immigration in the wild. Immigrants were less homozygous than existing natives on average, with mean homozygosity that closely resembled outbred natives. Immigrants can therefore be considered outbred on the focal population scale. Comparisons of homozygosity of real or hypothetical offspring of immigrant-native, native-native and immigrant-immigrant pairings implied that immigrants were typically unrelated to existing natives and to each other. Indeed, immigrants' offspring would be even less homozygous than outbred individuals on the focal population scale. The three standard assumptions of population genetic and evolutionary theory were consequently largely validated. Yet, our analyses revealed some deviations that should be accounted for in future analyses of heterosis and inbreeding depression, implying that the three assumptions should be verified in other systems to probe patterns of non-random or repeated dispersal and facilitate precise and unbiased estimation of key evolutionary parameters.

A sink host allows a specialist herbivore to persist in a seasonal source

In seasonal environments, sinks that are more persistent than sources may serve as temporal stepping stones for specialists. However, this possibility has to our knowledge, not been demonstrated to date, as such environments are thought to select for generalists, and the role of sinks, both in the field and in the laboratory, is difficult to document. Here, we used laboratory experiments to show that herbivorous arthropods associated with seasonally absent main (source) habitats can endure on a suboptimal (sink) host for several generations, albeit with a negative growth rate. Additionally, they dispersed towards this host less often than towards the main host and accepted it less often than the main host. Finally, repeated experimental evolution attempts revealed no adaptation to the suboptimal host. Nevertheless, field observations showed that arthropods are found in suboptimal habitats when the main habitat is unavailable. Together, these results show that evolutionary rescue in the suboptimal habitat is not possible. Instead, the sink habitat functions as a temporal stepping stone, allowing for the persistence of a specialist when the source habitat is gone.

Meta-analysis: Congruence of genomic and phenotypic differentiation across diverse natural study systems

Linking genotype to phenotype is a primary goal for understanding the genomic underpinnings of evolution. However, little work has explored whether patterns of linked genomic and phenotypic differentiation are congruent across natural study systems and traits. Here, we investigate such patterns with a meta-analysis of studies examining population-level differentiation at subsets of loci and traits putatively responding to divergent selection. We show that across the 31 studies (88 natural population-level comparisons) we examined, there was a moderate (R 2 = 0.39) relationship between genomic differentiation (F ST ) and phenotypic differentiation (P ST ) for loci and traits putatively under selection. This quantitative relationship between P ST and F ST for loci under selection in diverse taxa provides broad context and cross-system predictions for genomic and phenotypic adaptation by natural selection in natural populations. This context may eventually allow for more precise ideas of what constitutes "strong" differentiation, predictions about the effect size of loci, comparisons of taxa evolving in nonparallel ways, and more. On the other hand, links between P ST and F ST within studies were very weak, suggesting that much work remains in linking genomic differentiation to phenotypic differentiation at specific phenotypes. We suggest that linking genotypes to specific phenotypes can be improved by correlating genomic and phenotypic differentiation across a spectrum of diverging populations within a taxon and including wide coverage of both genomes and phenomes.

How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

Morphological ghosts of introgression in Darwin's finch populations

Many species of plants, animals, and microorganisms exchange genes well after the point of evolutionary divergence at which taxonomists recognize them as species. Genomes contain signatures of past gene exchange and, in some cases, they reveal a legacy of lineages that no longer exist. But genomic data are not available for many organisms, and particularly problematic for reconstructing and interpreting evolutionary history are communities that have been depleted by extinctions. For these, morphology may substitute for genes, as exemplified by the history of Darwin's finches on the Galápagos islands of Floreana and San Cristóbal. Darwin and companions collected seven specimens of a uniquely large form of Geospiza magnirostris in 1835. The populations became extinct in the next few decades, partly due to destruction of Opuntia cactus by introduced goats, whereas Geospiza fortis has persisted to the present. We used measurements of large samples of G. fortis collected for museums in the period 1891 to 1906 to test for unusually large variances and skewed distributions of beak and body size resulting from introgression. We found strong evidence of hybridization on Floreana but not on San Cristóbal. The skew is in the direction of the absent G. magnirostris We estimate introgression influenced 6% of the frequency distribution that was eroded by selection after G. magnirostris became extinct on these islands. The genetic residuum of an extinct species in an extant one has implications for its future evolution, as well as for a conservation program of reintroductions in extinction-depleted communities.

Host adaptation to novel pathogen introduction: Predicting conditions that promote evolutionary rescue

Novel pathogen introduction can have drastic consequences for naive host populations, and outcomes can be difficult to predict. Evolutionary rescue (ER) provides a foundation for understanding whether hosts are driven to extinction or survive via adaptation. Currently, patterns of host population dynamics alongside evidence of adaptation are used to infer ER. However, the gap between established ER theory and complexity inherent in natural systems makes interpreting empirical patterns difficult because they can be confounded with ecological drivers of survival under current theory. To bridge this gap, we expand ER theory to include biological selective agents, such as pathogens. We find birth processes to be more important than previously theorised in determining ER potential. We employ a novel framework evaluating ER potential within natural systems and gain ability to identify system characteristics that make ER possible. Identifying these characteristics allows a shift from retrospective observation to a predictive mindset, and our findings suggest that ER occurrence may be more limited than previously thought. We use the plague system of Yersinia pestis infecting Cynomys ludovicianus (black-tailed prairie dogs) and Spermophilus beecheyi (California ground squirrels) as a case study.

Cancer recurrence and lethality are enabled by enhanced survival and reversible cell cycle arrest of polyaneuploid cells

We present a unifying theory to explain cancer recurrence, therapeutic resistance, and lethality. The basis of this theory is the formation of simultaneously polyploid and aneuploid cancer cells, polyaneuploid cancer cells (PACCs), that avoid the toxic effects of systemic therapy by entering a state of cell cycle arrest. The theory is independent of which of the classically associated oncogenic mutations have already occurred. PACCs have been generally disregarded as senescent or dying cells. Our theory states that therapeutic resistance is driven by PACC formation that is enabled by accessing a polyploid program that allows an aneuploid cancer cell to double its genomic content, followed by entry into a nondividing cell state to protect DNA integrity and ensure cell survival. Upon removal of stress, e.g., chemotherapy, PACCs undergo depolyploidization and generate resistant progeny that make up the bulk of cancer cells within a tumor.

The Future of Bacteriophage Therapy Will Promote Antimicrobial Susceptibility

Rising antimicrobial resistance severely limits efforts to treat infections and is a cause for critical concern. Renewed interest in bacteriophage therapy has advanced understanding of the breadth of species capable of targeting bacterial antimicrobial resistance mechanisms, but many questions concerning ideal application remain unanswered. The following minireview examines bacterial resistance mechanisms, the current state of bacteriophage therapy, and how bacteriophage therapy can augment strategies to combat resistance with a focus on the clinically relevant bacterium Pseudomonas aeruginosa, as well as the role of efflux pumps in antimicrobial resistance. Methods to prevent antimicrobial efflux using efflux pump inhibitors and phage steering, a type of bacteriophage therapy, are also covered. The evolutionary context underlying antimicrobial resistance and the need to include theory in the ongoing development of bacteriophage therapy are also discussed.

Understanding Organismal Capacity to Respond to Anthropogenic Change: Barriers and Solutions

Global environmental changes induced by human activities are forcing organisms to respond at an unprecedented pace. At present we have only a limited understanding of why some species possess the capacity to respond to these changes while others do not. We introduce the concept of multidimensional phenospace as an organizing construct to understanding organismal evolutionary responses to environmental change. We then describe five barriers that currently challenge our ability to understand these responses: 1) Understanding the parameters of environmental change and their fitness effects, 2) Mapping and integrating phenotypic and genotypic variation, 3) Understanding whether changes in phenospace are heritable, 4) Predicting consistency of genotype to phenotype patterns across space and time, and 5) Determining which traits should be prioritized to understand organismal response to environmental change. For each we suggest one or more solutions that would help us surmount the barrier and improve our ability to predict, and eventually manipulate, organismal capacity to respond to anthropogenic change. Additionally, we provide examples of target species that could be useful to examine interactions between phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution in changing phenospace.

Genomic Approaches for Conservation Management in Australia under Climate Change

Conservation genetics has informed threatened species management for several decades. With the advent of advanced DNA sequencing technologies in recent years, it is now possible to monitor and manage threatened populations with even greater precision. Climate change presents a number of threats and challenges, but new genomics data and analytical approaches provide opportunities to identify critical evolutionary processes of relevance to genetic management under climate change. Here, we discuss the applications of such approaches for threatened species management in Australia in the context of climate change, identifying methods of facilitating viability and resilience in the face of extreme environmental stress. Using genomic approaches, conservation management practices such as translocation, targeted gene flow, and gene-editing can now be performed with the express intention of facilitating adaptation to current and projected climate change scenarios in vulnerable species, thus reducing extinction risk and ensuring the protection of our unique biodiversity for future generations. We discuss the current barriers to implementing conservation genomic projects and the efforts being made to overcome them, including communication between researchers and managers to improve the relevance and applicability of genomic studies. We present novel approaches for facilitating adaptive capacity and accelerating natural selection in species to encourage resilience in the face of climate change.

Adaptation to simultaneous warming and acidification carries a thermal tolerance cost in a marine copepod

The ocean is undergoing warming and acidification. Thermal tolerance is affected both by evolutionary adaptation and developmental plasticity. Yet, thermal tolerance in animals adapted to simultaneous warming and acidification is unknown. We experimentally evolved the ubiquitous copepod Acartia tonsa to future combined ocean warming and acidification conditions (OWA approx. 22°C, 2000 µatm CO2) and then compared its thermal tolerance relative to ambient conditions (AM approx. 18°C, 400 µatm CO2). The OWA and AM treatments were reciprocally transplanted after 65 generations to assess effects of developmental conditions on thermal tolerance and potential costs of adaptation. Treatments transplanted from OWA to AM conditions were assessed at the F1 and F9 generations following transplant. Adaptation to warming and acidification, paradoxically, reduces both thermal tolerance and phenotypic plasticity. These costs of adaptation to combined warming and acidification may limit future population resilience.

Compensatory adaptation and diversification subsequent to evolutionary rescue in a model adaptive radiation

Biological populations may survive lethal environmental stress through evolutionary rescue. The rescued populations typically suffer a reduction in growth performance and harbor very low genetic diversity compared with their parental populations. The present study addresses how population size and within-population diversity may recover through compensatory evolution, using the experimental adaptive radiation of bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens. We exposed bacterial populations to an antibiotic treatment and then imposed a one-individual-size population bottleneck on those surviving the antibiotic stress. During the subsequent compensatory evolution, population size increased and leveled off very rapidly. The increase of diversity was of slower paces and persisted longer. In the very early stage of compensatory evolution, populations of large sizes had a greater chance to diversify; however, this productivity-diversification relationship was not observed in later stages. Population size and diversity from the end of the compensatory evolution was not contingent on initial population growth performance. We discussed the possibility that our results be explained by the emergence of a "holey" fitness landscape under the antibiotic stress.

The dynamics of evolutionary rescue from a novel pathogen threat in a host metapopulation

When a novel disease strikes a naïve host population, there is evidence that the most immediate response can involve host evolution while the pathogen remains relatively unchanged. When hosts also live in metapopulations, there may be critical differences in the dynamics that emerge from the synergy among evolutionary, ecological, and epidemiological factors. Here we used a Susceptible-Infected-Recovery model to explore how spatial and temporal ecological factors may drive the epidemiological and rapid-evolutionary dynamics of host metapopulations. For simplicity, we assumed two host genotypes: wild type, which has a positive intrinsic growth rate in the absence of disease, and robust type, which is less likely to catch the infection given exposure but has a lower intrinsic growth rate in the absence of infection. We found that the robust-type host would be strongly selected for in the presence of disease when transmission differences between the two types is large. The growth rate of the wild type had dual but opposite effects on host composition: a smaller increase in wild-type growth increased wild-type competition and lead to periodical disease outbreaks over the first generations after pathogen introduction, while larger growth increased disease by providing more susceptibles, which increased robust host density but decreased periodical outbreaks. Increased migration had a similar impact as the increased differential susceptibility, both of which led to an increase in robust hosts and a decrease in periodical outbreaks. Our study provided a comprehensive understanding of the combined effects among migration, disease epidemiology, and host demography on host evolution with an unchanging pathogen. The findings have important implications for wildlife conservation and zoonotic disease control.

Genetic and plastic rewiring of food webs under climate change

Climate change is altering ecological and evolutionary processes across biological scales. These simultaneous effects of climate change pose a major challenge for predicting the future state of populations, communities and ecosystems. This challenge is further exacerbated by the current lack of integration of research focused on these different scales.

We propose that integrating the fields of quantitative genetics and food web ecology will reveal new insights on how climate change may reorganize biodiversity across levels of organization. This is because quantitative genetics links the genotypes of individuals to population‐level phenotypic variation due to genetic (G), environmental (E) and gene‐by‐environment (G × E) factors. Food web ecology, on the other hand, links population‐level phenotypes to the structure and dynamics of communities and ecosystems.

We synthesize data and theory across these fields and find evidence that genetic (G) and plastic (E and G × E) phenotypic variation within populations will change in magnitude under new climates in predictable ways. We then show how changes in these sources of phenotypic variation can rewire food webs by altering the number and strength of species interactions, with consequences for ecosystem resilience. We also find evidence suggesting there are predictable asymmetries in genetic and plastic trait variation across trophic levels, which set the pace for phenotypic change and food web responses to climate change. Advances in genomics now make it possible to partition G, E and G × E phenotypic variation in natural populations, allowing tests of the hypotheses we propose.

By synthesizing advances in quantitative genetics and food web ecology, we provide testable predictions for how the structure and dynamics of biodiversity will respond to climate change.

Evolutionary rescue at different rates of environmental change is affected by trade-offs between short-term performance and long-term survival

As climate change accelerates and habitats free from anthropogenic impacts diminish, populations are forced to migrate or to adapt quickly. Evolutionary rescue (ER) is a phenomenon, in which a population is able to avoid extinction through adaptation. ER is considered to be more likely at slower rates of environmental change. However, the effects of correlated characters on evolutionary rescue are seldom explored yet correlated characters could play a major role in ER. We tested how evolutionary background in different fluctuating environments and the rate of environmental change affect the probability of ER by exposing populations of the bacteria Serratia marcescens to two different rates of steady temperature increase. As suggested by theory, slower environmental change allowed populations to grow more effectively even at extreme temperatures, but at the expense of long-term survival at extreme conditions due to correlated selection. Our results indicate important gap of knowledge on the effects of correlated selection during the environmental change and on evolutionary rescue at differently changing environments.

Evolutionary rescue in host-pathogen systems

Natural populations encounter a variety of threats that can increase their risk of extinction. Populations can avoid extinction through evolutionary rescue (ER), which occurs when an adaptive, genetic response to selection allows a population to recover from an environmental change that would otherwise cause extinction. While the traditional framework for ER was developed with abiotic risk factors in mind, ER may also occur in response to a biotic source of demographic change, such as the introduction of a novel pathogen. We first describe how ER in response to a pathogen differs from the traditional ER framework; density-dependent transmission, pathogen evolution, and pathogen extinction can change the strength of selection imposed by a pathogen and make host population persistence more likely. We also discuss several variables that affect traditional ER (abundance, genetic diversity, population connectivity, and community composition) that also directly affect disease risk resulting in diverse outcomes for ER in host-pathogen systems. Thus, generalizations developed in studies of traditional ER may not be relevant for ER in response to the introduction of a pathogen. Incorporating pathogens into the framework of ER will lead to a better understanding of how and when populations can avoid extinction in response to novel pathogens.

The ecological causes and consequences of hard and soft selection

Interactions between natural selection and population dynamics are central to both evolutionary-ecology and biological responses to anthropogenic change. Natural selection is often thought to incur a demographic cost that, at least temporarily, reduces population growth. However, hard and soft selection clarify that the influence of natural selection on population dynamics depends on ecological context. Under hard selection, an individual's fitness is independent of the population's phenotypic composition, and substantial population declines can occur when phenotypes are mismatched with the environment. In contrast, under soft selection, an individual's fitness is influenced by its phenotype relative to other interacting conspecifics. Soft selection generally influences which, but not how many, individuals survive and reproduce, resulting in little effect on population growth. Despite these important differences, the distinction between hard and soft selection is rarely considered in ecology. Here, we review and synthesize literature on hard and soft selection, explore their ecological causes and implications and highlight their conservation relevance to climate change, inbreeding depression, outbreeding depression and harvest. Overall, these concepts emphasise that natural selection and evolution may often have negligible or counterintuitive effects on population growth-underappreciated outcomes that have major implications in a rapidly changing world.

Conserving intraspecific variation for nature's contributions to people

The rapid loss of intraspecific variation is a hidden biodiversity crisis. Intraspecific variation, which includes the genomic and phenotypic diversity found within and among populations, is threatened by local extinctions, abundance declines, and anthropogenic selection. However, biodiversity assessments often fail to highlight this loss of diversity within species. We review the literature on how intraspecific variation supports critical ecological functions and nature's contributions to people (NCP). Results show that the main categories of NCP (material, non-material, and regulating) are supported by intraspecific variation. We highlight new strategies that are needed to further explore these connections and to make explicit the value of intraspecific variation for NCP. These strategies will require collaboration with local and Indigenous groups who possess critical knowledge on the relationships between intraspecific variation and ecosystem function. New genomic methods provide a promising set of tools to uncover hidden variation. Urgent action is needed to document, conserve, and restore the intraspecific variation that supports nature and people. Thus, we propose that the maintenance and restoration of intraspecific variation should be raised to a major global conservation objective.

Rapid genetic adaptation to recently colonized environments is driven by genes underlying life history traits

Background

Uncovering the mechanisms underlying rapid genetic adaptation can provide insight into adaptive evolution and shed light on conservation, invasive species control, and natural resource management. However, it can be difficult to experimentally explore rapid adaptation due to the challenges associated with propagating and maintaining species in captive environments for long periods of time. By contrast, many introduced species have experienced strong selection when colonizing environments that differ substantially from their native range and thus provide a “natural experiment” for studying rapid genetic adaptation. One such example occurred when sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus), native to the northern Atlantic, naturally migrated into Lake Champlain and expanded their range into the Great Lakes via man-made shipping canals.

Results

Utilizing 368,886 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we calculated genome-wide levels of genetic diversity (i.e., heterozygosity and π) for sea lamprey collected from native (Connecticut River), native but recently colonized (Lake Champlain), and invasive (Lake Michigan) populations, assessed genetic differentiation between all populations, and identified candidate genes that responded to selection imposed by the novel environments. We observed a 14 and 24% reduction in genetic diversity in Lake Michigan and Lake Champlain populations, respectively, compared to individuals from the Connecticut River, suggesting that sea lamprey populations underwent a genetic bottleneck during colonization. Additionally, we identified 121 and 43 outlier genes in comparisons between Lake Michigan and Connecticut River and between Lake Champlain and Connecticut River, respectively. Six outlier genes that contained synonymous SNPs in their coding regions and two genes that contained nonsynonymous SNPs may underlie the rapid evolution of growth (i.e., GHR), reproduction (i.e., PGR, TTC25, STARD10), and bioenergetics (i.e., OXCT1, PYGL, DIN4, SLC25A15).

Conclusions

By identifying the genomic basis of rapid adaptation to novel environments, we demonstrate that populations of invasive species can be a useful study system for understanding adaptive evolution. Furthermore, the reduction in genome-wide levels of genetic diversity associated with colonization coupled with the identification of outlier genes underlying key life history traits known to have changed in invasive sea lamprey populations (e.g., growth, reproduction) illustrate the utility in applying genomic approaches for the successful management of introduced species.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12864-021-07553-x.

The Effect of Habitat Choice on Evolutionary Rescue in Subdivided Populations

AbstractEvolutionary rescue is the process by which a population, in response to an environmental change, successfully avoids extinction through adaptation. In spatially structured environments, dispersal can affect the probability of rescue. Here, we model an environment consisting of patches that degrade one after another, and we investigate the probability of rescue by a mutant adapted to the degraded habitat. We focus on the effects of dispersal and of immigration biases. We identify up to three regions delimiting the effect of dispersal on the probability of evolutionary rescue: (i) starting from low dispersal rates, the probability of rescue increases with dispersal; (ii) at intermediate dispersal rates, it decreases; and (iii) at large dispersal rates, it increases again with dispersal, except if mutants are too counterselected in not-yet-degraded patches. The probability of rescue is generally highest when mutant and wild-type individuals preferentially immigrate into patches that have already undergone environmental change. Additionally, we find that mutants that will eventually rescue the population most likely first appear in nondegraded patches. Overall, our results show that habitat choice, compared with the often-studied unbiased immigration scheme, can substantially alter the dynamics of population survival and adaptation to new environments.

Using environmental and geographic data to optimize ex situ collections and preserve evolutionary potential

Maintenance of biodiversity through seed banks and botanical gardens, where the wealth of species' genetic variation may be preserved ex situ, is a major goal of conservation. However, challenges can persist in optimizing ex situ collections if trade-offs exist among cost, effort, and conserving species evolutionary potential, particularly when genetic data are not available. We evaluated the genetic consequences of population preservation informed by geographic (isolation by distance [IBD]) and environmental (isolation by environment [IBE]) distance for ex situ collections for which population provenance is available. We used 19 genetic and genomic data sets from 15 plant species to assess the proportion of population genetic differentiation explained by geographic and environmental factors and to simulate ex situ collections prioritizing source populations based on pairwise geographic distance, environmental distance, or both. Specifically, we tested the impact prioritizing sampling based on these distances may have on the capture of neutral, functional, or putatively adaptive genetic diversity and differentiation. Individually, IBD and IBE explained limited population genetic differences across all 3 genetic marker classes (IBD, 10-16%; IBE, 1-5.5%). Together, they explained a substantial proportion of population genetic differences for functional (45%) and adaptive (71%) variation. Simulated ex situ collections revealed that inclusion of IBD, IBE, or both increased allelic diversity and genetic differentiation captured among populations, particularly for loci that may be important for adaptation. Thus, prioritizing population collections based on environmental and geographic distance data can optimize genetic variation captured ex situ. For the vast majority of plant species for which there is no genetic information, these data are invaluable to conservation because they can guide preservation of genetic variation needed to maintain evolutionary potential within collections.

Environmental fluctuations dampen the effects of clonal reproduction on evolutionary rescue

Evolutionary rescue occurs when genetic change allows a population to persist in response to an environmental change that would otherwise have led to extinction. Most studies of evolutionary rescue assume that species have either fully clonal or fully sexual reproduction; however, many species have partially clonal reproductive strategies in which they reproduce both clonally and sexually. Furthermore, the few evolutionary rescue studies that have evaluated partially clonal reproduction did not consider fluctuations in the environment, which are nearly ubiquitous in nature. Here, we use individual-based simulations to investigate how environmental fluctuations (either uncorrelated or positively autocorrelated) influence the effect of clonality on evolutionary rescue. We show that, for moderate magnitudes of environmental fluctuations, as was found in the absence of fluctuations, increasing the degree of clonality increases the probability of population persistence in response to an abrupt environmental change, but decreases persistence in response to a continuous, directional environmental change. However, with large magnitudes of fluctuations, both the benefits of clonality following a step change and the detrimental effects of clonality following a continuous, directional change are generally reduced; in fact, in the latter scenario, increasing clonality can even become beneficial if environmental fluctuations are autocorrelated. We also show that increased generational overlap dampens the effects of environmental fluctuations. Overall, we demonstrate that understanding the evolutionary rescue of partially clonal organisms requires not only knowledge of the species life history and the type of environmental change, but also an understanding of the magnitude and autocorrelation of environmental fluctuations.

Genetic mixing for population management: From genetic rescue to provenancing

Animal and plant species around the world are being challenged by the deleterious effects of inbreeding, loss of genetic diversity, and maladaptation due to widespread habitat destruction and rapid climate change. In many cases, interventions will likely be needed to safeguard populations and species and to maintain functioning ecosystems. Strategies aimed at initiating, reinstating, or enhancing patterns of gene flow via the deliberate movement of genotypes around the environment are generating growing interest with broad applications in conservation and environmental management. These diverse strategies go by various names ranging from genetic or evolutionary rescue to provenancing and genetic resurrection. Our aim here is to provide some clarification around terminology and to how these strategies are connected and linked to underlying genetic processes. We draw on case studies from the literature and outline mechanisms that underlie how the various strategies aim to increase species fitness and impact the wider community. We argue that understanding mechanisms leading to species decline and community impact is a key to successful implementation of these strategies. We emphasize the need to consider the nature of source and recipient populations, as well as associated risks and trade-offs for the various strategies. This overview highlights where strategies are likely to have potential at population, species, and ecosystem scales, but also where they should probably not be attempted depending on the overall aims of the intervention. We advocate an approach where short- and long-term strategies are integrated into a decision framework that also considers nongenetic aspects of management.

Climate change threatens Chinook salmon throughout their life cycle

Widespread declines in Atlantic and Pacific salmon (Salmo salar and Oncorhynchus spp.) have tracked recent climate changes, but managers still lack quantitative projections of the viability of any individual population in response to future climate change. To address this gap, we assembled a vast database of survival and other data for eight wild populations of threatened Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha). For each population, we evaluated climate impacts at all life stages and modeled future trajectories forced by global climate model projections. Populations rapidly declined in response to increasing sea surface temperatures and other factors across diverse model assumptions and climate scenarios. Strong density dependence limited the number of salmon that survived early life stages, suggesting a potentially efficacious target for conservation effort. Other solutions require a better understanding of the factors that limit survival at sea. We conclude that dramatic increases in smolt survival are needed to overcome the negative impacts of climate change for this threatened species.

Evolutionary Rescue of an Environmental Pseudomonas otitidis in Response to Anthropogenic Perturbation

Anthropogenic perturbations introduce novel selective pressures to natural environments, impacting the genomic variability of organisms and thus altering the evolutionary trajectory of populations. Water overexploitation for agricultural purposes and defective policies in Cuatro Cienegas, Coahuila, Mexico, have strongly impacted its water reservoir, pushing entire hydrological systems to the brink of extinction along with their native populations. Here, we studied the effects of continuous water overexploitation on an environmental aquatic lineage of Pseudomonas otitidis over a 13-year period which encompasses three desiccation events. By comparing the genomes of a population sample from 2003 (original state) and 2015 (perturbed state), we analyzed the demographic history and evolutionary response to perturbation of this lineage. Through coalescent simulations, we obtained a demographic model of contraction-expansion-contraction which points to the occurrence of an evolutionary rescue event. Loss of genomic and nucleotide variation alongside an increment in mean and variance of Tajima’s D, characteristic of sudden population expansions, support this observation. In addition, a significant increase in recombination rate (R/θ) was observed, pointing to horizontal gene transfer playing a role in population recovery. Furthermore, the gain of phosphorylation, DNA recombination, small-molecule metabolism and transport and loss of biosynthetic and regulatory genes suggest a functional shift in response to the environmental perturbation. Despite subsequent sampling events in the studied site, no pseudomonad was found until the lagoon completely dried in 2017. We speculate about the causes of P. otitidis final decline or possible extinction. Overall our results are evidence of adaptive responses at the genomic level of bacterial populations in a heavily exploited aquifer.

Evolvability and evolutionary rescue

The survival prospects of threatened species or populations can sometimes be improved by adaptive change. Such evolutionary rescue is particularly relevant when the threat comes from changing environments, or when long-term population persistence requires range expansion into new habitats. Conservation biologists are therefore often interested in whether or not populations or lineages show a disposition for adaptive evolution, that is, if they are evolvable. Here, we discuss four alternative perspectives that target different causes of evolvability and outline some of the key challenges those perspectives are designed to address. Standing genetic variation provides one familiar estimate of evolvability. Yet, the mere presence of genetic variation is often insufficient to predict if a population will adapt, or how it will adapt. The reason is that adaptive change not only depends on genetic variation, but also on the extent to which this genetic variation can be realized as adaptive phenotypic variation. This requires attention to developmental systems and how plasticity influences evolutionary potential. Finally, we discuss how a better understanding of the different factors that contribute to evolvability can be exploited in conservation practice.

Evolutionary rescue via transgenerational plasticity: Evidence and implications for conservation

When a population experiences severe stress from a changing environment, evolution by natural selection can prevent its extinction, a process dubbed "evolutionary rescue." However, evolution may be unable to track the sort of rapid environmental change being experienced by many modern-day populations. A potential solution is for organisms to respond to environmental change through phenotypic plasticity, which can buffer populations against change and thereby buy time for evolutionary rescue. In this review, we examine whether this process extends to situations in which the environmentally induced response is passed to offspring. As we describe, theoretical and empirical studies suggest that such "transgenerational plasticity" can increase population persistence. We discuss the implications of this process for conservation biology, outline potential limitations, and describe some applications. Generally, transgenerational plasticity may be effective at buying time for evolutionary rescue to occur.

Positive interactions within and between populations decrease the likelihood of evolutionary rescue

Positive interactions, including intraspecies cooperation and interspecies mutualisms, play crucial roles in shaping the structure and function of many ecosystems, ranging from plant communities to the human microbiome. While the evolutionary forces that form and maintain positive interactions have been investigated extensively, the influence of positive interactions on the ability of species to adapt to new environments is still poorly understood. Here, we use numerical simulations and theoretical analyses to study how positive interactions impact the likelihood that populations survive after an environment deteriorates, such that survival in the new environment requires quick adaptation via the rise of new mutants-a scenario known as evolutionary rescue. We find that the probability of evolutionary rescue in populations engaged in positive interactions is reduced significantly. In cooperating populations, this reduction is largely due to the fact that survival may require at least a minimal number of individuals, meaning that adapted mutants must arise and spread before the population declines below this threshold. In mutualistic populations, the rescue probability is decreased further due to two additional effects-the need for both mutualistic partners to adapt to the new environment, and competition between the two species. Finally, we show that the presence of cheaters reduces the likelihood of evolutionary rescue even further, making it extremely unlikely. These results indicate that while positive interactions may be beneficial in stable environments, they can hinder adaptation to changing environments and thereby elevate the risk of population collapse. Furthermore, these results may hint at the selective pressures that drove co-dependent unicellular species to form more adaptable organisms able to differentiate into multiple phenotypes, including multicellular life.

Riverscape genetics in brook lamprey: genetic diversity is less influenced by river fragmentation than by gene flow with the anadromous ecotype

Understanding the effect of human-induced landscape fragmentation on gene flow and evolutionary potential of wild populations has become a major concern. Here, we investigated the effect of riverscape fragmentation on patterns of genetic diversity in the freshwater resident European brook lamprey (Lampetra planeri) that has a low ability to pass obstacles to migration. We tested the hypotheses of (i) asymmetric gene flow following water current and (ii) an effect of gene flow with the closely related anadromous river lamprey (L. fluviatilis) ecotype on L. planeri genetic diversity. We genotyped 2472 individuals, including 225 L. fluviatilis, sampled from 81 sites upstream and downstream barriers to migration, in 29 western European rivers. Linear modelling revealed a strong positive relationship between genetic diversity and the distance from the river source, consistent with expected patterns of decreased gene flow into upstream populations. However, the presence of anthropogenic barriers had a moderate effect on spatial genetic structure. Accordingly, we found evidence for downstream-directed gene flow, supporting the hypothesis that barriers do not limit dispersal mediated by water flow. Downstream L. planeri populations in sympatry with L. fluviatilis displayed consistently higher genetic diversity. We conclude that genetic drift and slight downstream gene flow drive the genetic make-up of upstream L. planeri populations whereas gene flow between ecotypes maintains higher levels of genetic diversity in L. planeri populations sympatric with L. fluviatilis. We discuss the implications of these results for the design of conservation strategies of lamprey, and other freshwater organisms with several ecotypes, in fragmented dendritic river networks.

Population responses to a historic drought across the range of the common monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus)

PREMISE

Due to climate change, more frequent and intense periodic droughts are predicted to increasingly pose major challenges to the persistence of plant populations. When a severe drought occurs over a broad geographical region, independent responses by individual populations provide replicated natural experiments for examining the evolution of drought resistance and the potential for evolutionary rescue.

METHODS

We used a resurrection approach to examine trait evolution in populations of the common monkeyflower, Mimulus guttatus, exposed to a record drought in California from 2011 to 2017. Specifically, we compared variation in traits related to drought escape and avoidance from seeds collected from 37 populations pre- and post-drought in a common garden. In a parallel experiment, we evaluated fitness in two populations, one which thrived and one which was nearly extirpated during the drought, under well-watered and dry-down conditions.

RESULTS

We observed substantial variation among populations in trait evolution. In the subset of populations where phenotypes changed significantly, divergence proceeded along trait correlations with some populations flowering rapidly with less vegetative tissue accumulation and others delaying flowering with greater vegetative tissue accumulation. The degree of trait evolution was only weakly correlated with drought intensity but strongly correlated with initial levels of standing variation. Fitness was higher in the post-drought than pre-drought accessions in both treatments for the thriving population, but lower in both treatments for the nearly extirpated population.

CONCLUSIONS

Together, our results indicate that evolutionary responses to drought are context dependent and reflect the standing genetic variation and genetic correlations present within populations.

Population genomics reveal rapid genetic differentiation in a recently invasive population of Rattus norvegicus

Background

Invasive species bring a serious effect on local biodiversity, ecosystems, and even human health and safety. Although the genetic signatures of historical range expansions have been explored in an array of species, the genetic consequences of contemporary range expansions have received little attention, especially in mammal species. In this study, we used whole-genome sequencing to explore the rapid genetic change and introduction history of a newly invasive brown rat (Rattus norvegicus) population which invaded Xinjiang Province, China in the late 1970s.

Results

Bayesian clustering analysis, principal components analysis, and phylogenetic analysis all showed clear genetic differentiation between newly introduced and native rat populations. Reduced genetic diversity and high linkage disequilibrium suggested a severe population bottleneck in this colonization event. Results of TreeMix analyses revealed that the introduced rats were derived from an adjacent population in geographic region (Northwest China). Demographic analysis indicated that a severe bottleneck occurred in XJ population after the split off from the source population, and the divergence of XJ population might have started before the invasion of XJ. Moreover, we detected 42 protein-coding genes with allele frequency shifts throughout the genome for XJ rats and they were mainly associated with lipid metabolism and immunity, which could be seen as a prelude to future selection analyses in the novel environment of XJ.

Conclusions

This study presents the first genomic evidence on genetic differentiation which developed rapidly, and deepens the understanding of invasion history and evolutionary processes of this newly introduced rat population. This would add to our understanding of how invasive species become established and aid strategies aimed at the management of this notorious pest that have spread around the world with humans.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12983-021-00387-z.

Why disease ecology needs life-history theory: a host perspective

When facing an emerging infectious disease of conservation concern, we often have little information on the nature of the host-parasite interaction to inform management decisions. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the life-history strategies of host species can be predictive of individual- and population-level responses to infectious disease, even without detailed knowledge on the specifics of the host-parasite interaction. Here, we argue that a deeper integration of life-history theory into disease ecology is timely and necessary to improve our capacity to understand, predict and mitigate the impact of endemic and emerging infectious diseases in wild populations. Using wild vertebrates as an example, we show that host life-history characteristics influence host responses to parasitism at different levels of organisation, from individuals to communities. We also highlight knowledge gaps and future directions for the study of life-history and host responses to parasitism. We conclude by illustrating how this theoretical insight can inform the monitoring and control of infectious diseases in wildlife.

Immigration counter-acts local micro-evolution of a major fitness component: Migration-selection balance in free-living song sparrows

Ongoing adaptive evolution, and resulting “evolutionary rescue” of declining populations, requires additive genetic variation in fitness. Such variation can be increased by gene flow resulting from immigration, potentially facilitating evolution. But, gene flow could in fact constrain rather than facilitate local adaptive evolution if immigrants have low additive genetic values for local fitness. Local migration‐selection balance and micro‐evolutionary stasis could then result. However, key quantitative genetic effects of natural immigration, comprising the degrees to which gene flow increases the total local additive genetic variance yet counteracts local adaptive evolutionary change, have not been explicitly quantified in wild populations. Key implications of gene flow for population and evolutionary dynamics consequently remain unclear. Our quantitative genetic analyses of long‐term data from free‐living song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) show that mean breeding value for local juvenile survival to adulthood, a major component of fitness, increased across cohorts more than expected solely due to drift. Such micro‐evolutionary change should be expected given nonzero additive genetic variance and consistent directional selection. However, this evolutionary increase was counteracted by negative additive genetic effects of recent immigrants, which increased total additive genetic variance but prevented a net directional evolutionary increase in total additive genetic value. These analyses imply an approximate quantitative genetic migration‐selection balance in a major fitness component, and hence demonstrate a key mechanism by which substantial additive genetic variation can be maintained yet decoupled from local adaptive evolutionary change.

Collapse and rescue of evolutionary food webs under global warming

Global warming is severely impacting ecosystems and threatening ecosystem services as well as human well-being. While some species face extinction risk, several studies suggest the possibility that fast evolution may allow species to adapt and survive in spite of environmental changes. We assess how such evolutionary rescue extends to multitrophic communities and whether evolution systematically preserves biodiversity under global warming. More precisely, we expose simulated trophic networks of co-evolving consumers to warming under different evolutionary scenarios, which allows us to assess the effect of evolution on diversity maintenance. We also investigate how the evolution of body mass and feeding preference affects coexistence within a simplified consumer-resource module. Our simulations predict that the long-term diversity loss triggered by warming is considerably higher in scenarios where evolution is slowed down or switched off completely, indicating that eco-evolutionary feedback indeed helps to preserve biodiversity. However, even with fast evolution, food webs still experience vast disruptions in their structure and functioning. Reversing warming may thus not be sufficient to restore previous structures. Our findings highlight how the interaction between evolutionary rescue and changes in trophic structures constrains ecosystem responses to warming with important implications for conservation and management policies.

Evolutionary and Plastic Phenotypic Change Can Be Just as Fast as Changes in Population Densities

AbstractEvolution and plasticity can drive population-level phenotypic change (e.g., changes in the mean phenotype) on timescales comparable to changes in population densities. However, it is unclear whether phenotypic change has the potential to be just as fast as changes in densities or whether comparable rates of change occur only when densities are changing slow enough for phenotypes to keep pace. Moreover, it is unclear whether this depends on the mode of adaptation. Using scaling theory and fast-slow dynamical systems theory, we develop a method for comparing maximum rates of density and phenotypic change estimated from population-level time-series data. We apply our method to 30 published empirical studies where changes in morphological traits are caused by evolution, plasticity, or an unknown combination. For every study, the maximum rate of phenotypic change was between 0.5 and 2.5 times faster than the maximum rate of change in density. Moreover, there were no systematic differences between systems with different modes of adaptation. Our results show that plasticity and evolution can drive phenotypic change just as fast as changes in densities. We discuss the implications of our results in terms of the strengths of feedbacks between population densities and traits.

Whole exome sequencing identifies the potential for genetic rescue in iconic and critically endangered Panamanian harlequin frogs

Avoiding extinction in a rapidly changing environment often relies on a species' ability to quickly adapt in the face of extreme selective pressures. In Panamá, two closely related harlequin frog species (Atelopus varius and Atelopus zeteki) are threatened with extinction due to the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Once thought to be nearly extirpated from Panamá, A. varius have recently been rediscovered in multiple localities across their historical range; however, A. zeteki are possibly extinct in the wild. By leveraging a unique collection of 186 Atelopus tissue samples collected before and after the Bd outbreak in Panama, we describe the genetics of persistence for these species on the brink of extinction. We sequenced the transcriptome and developed an exome-capture assay to sequence the coding regions of the Atelopus genome. Using these genetic data, we evaluate the population genetic structure of historical A. varius and A. zeteki populations, describe changes in genetic diversity over time, assess the relationship between contemporary and historical individuals, and test the hypothesis that some A. varius populations have rapidly evolved to resist or tolerate Bd infection. We found a significant decrease in genetic diversity in contemporary (compared to historical) A. varius populations. We did not find strong evidence of directional allele frequency change or selection for Bd resistance genes, but we uncovered a set of candidate genes that warrant further study. Additionally, we found preliminary evidence of recent migration and gene flow in one of the largest persisting A. varius populations in Panamá, suggesting the potential for genetic rescue in this system. Finally, we propose that previous conservation units should be modified, as clear genetic breaks do not exist beyond the local population level. Our data lay the groundwork for genetically informed conservation and advance our understanding of how imperiled species might be rescued from extinction.

Thermal sensitivity and flow-mediated migratory delays drive climate risk for coastal sockeye salmon

Climate change is subjecting aquatic species to increasing temperatures and shifting hydrologic conditions. Understanding how these changes affect individual survival can help guide conservation and management actions. Anadromous Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) in some large river systems are acutely impacted by the river temperatures and flows encountered during their spawning migrations. However, comparatively little is known about drivers of en route mortality for salmon in smaller coastal watersheds, and climate impacts may differ across watersheds and locally adapted salmon populations. To understand the effects of climate on the survival of coastal sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka; hísn in Haíɫzaqv), we tagged 1785 individual fish with passive integrated transponders across four migration seasons in the Koeye River—a low-elevation watershed in coastal British Columbia—and tracked them during their relatively short migration (∼13 km) from river entry to spawning grounds. Overall, 64.7% of sockeye survived to enter the spawning grounds, and survival decreased rapidly when water temperatures exceeded 15 °C. The best-fitting model included an interaction between river flow and temperature, such that temperature effects were worse when flows were low, and river entry ceased at the lowest flows. Results revealed temperature-mediated mortality and migration delays from low water that may synergistically reduce survival among sockeye salmon returning to coastal watersheds.

Pedal to the metal: Cities power evolutionary divergence by accelerating metabolic rate and locomotor performance

Metabolic rates of ectotherms are expected to increase with global trends of climatic warming. But the potential for rapid, compensatory evolution of lower metabolic rate in response to rising temperatures is only starting to be explored. Here, we explored rapid evolution of metabolic rate and locomotor performance in acorn-dwelling ants (Temnothorax curvispinosus) in response to urban heat island effects. We reared ant colonies within a laboratory common garden (25°C) to generate a laboratory-born cohort of workers and tested their acute plastic responses to temperature. Contrary to expectations, urban ants exhibited a higher metabolic rate compared with rural ants when tested at 25°C, suggesting a potentially maladaptive evolutionary response to urbanization. Urban and rural ants had similar metabolic rates when tested at 38°C, as a consequence of a diminished plastic response of the urban ants. Locomotor performance also evolved such that the running speed of urban ants was faster than rural ants under warmer test temperatures (32°C and 42°C) but slower under a cooler test temperature (22°C). The resulting specialist-generalist trade-off and higher thermal optimum for locomotor performance might compensate for evolved increases in metabolic rate by allowing workers to more quickly scout and retrieve resources.