Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic

Methods for sequencing the pandemic: benefits of rapid or high-throughput processing

Genomic epidemiology has proven successful for real-time and retrospective monitoring of small and large-scale outbreaks. Here, we report two genomic sequencing and analysis strategies for rapid-turnaround or high-throughput processing of metagenomic samples. The rapid-turnaround method was designed to provide a quick phylogenetic snapshot of samples at the heart of active outbreaks, and has a total turnaround time of <48 hours from raw sample to analyzed data. The high-throughput method, first reported here for SARS-CoV2, was designed for semi-retrospective data analysis, and is both cost effective and highly scalable. Though these methods were developed and utilized for the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic response in Arizona, U.S, we envision their use for infectious disease epidemiology in the 21 st Century.

Sequencing the pandemic: rapid and high-throughput processing and analysis of COVID-19 clinical samples for 21 st century public health

Genomic epidemiology has proven successful for real-time and retrospective monitoring of small and large-scale outbreaks. Here, we report two genomic sequencing and analysis strategies for rapid-turnaround or high-throughput processing of metagenomic samples. The rapid-turnaround method was designed to provide a quick phylogenetic snapshot of samples at the heart of active outbreaks, and has a total turnaround time of <48 hours from raw sample to analyzed data. The high-throughput method was designed for semi-retrospective data analysis, and is both cost effective and highly scalable. Though these methods were developed and utilized for the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic response in Arizona, U.S, and we envision their use for infectious disease epidemiology in the 21 st Century.

Analysis of an Ebola virus disease survivor whose host and viral markers were predictive of death indicates the effectiveness of medical countermeasures and supportive care

BACKGROUND

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is an often-fatal infection where the effectiveness of medical countermeasures is uncertain. During the West African outbreak (2013-2016), several patients were treated with different types of anti-viral therapies including monoclonal antibody-based cocktails that had the potential to neutralise Ebola virus (EBOV). However, at the time, the efficacy of these therapies was uncertain. Given the scale of the outbreak, several clinical phenotypes came to the forefront including the ability of the same virus to cause recrudescence in the same patient-perhaps through persisting in immune privileged sites. Several key questions remained including establishing if monoclonal antibody therapy was effective in humans with severe EVD, whether virus escape mutants were selected during treatment, and what is the potential mechanism(s) of persistence. This was made possible through longitudinal samples taken from a UK patient with EVD.

METHODS

Several different sample types, plasma and cerebrospinal fluid, were collected and sequenced using Illumina-based RNAseq. Sequence reads were mapped both to EBOV and the human genome and differential gene expression analysis used to identify changes in the abundance of gene transcripts as infection progressed. Digital Cell Quantitation analysis was used to predict the immune phenotype in samples derived from blood.

RESULTS

The findings were compared to equivalent data from West African patients. The study found that both virus and host markers were predictive of a fatal outcome. This suggested that the extensive supportive care, and most likely the application of the medical countermeasure ZMab (a monoclonal antibody cocktail), contributed to survival of the UK patient. The switch from progression to a 'fatal' outcome to a 'survival' outcome could be seen in both the viral and host markers. The UK patient also suffered a recrudescence infection 10 months after the initial infection. Analysis of the sequencing data indicated that the virus entered a period of reduced or minimal replication, rather than other potential mechanisms of persistence-such as defective interfering genomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The data showed that comprehensive supportive care and the application of medical countermeasures are worth pursuing despite an initial unfavourable prognosis.

Identification of Hidden Population Structure in Time-Scaled Phylogenies

Population structure influences genealogical patterns, however, data pertaining to how populations are structured are often unavailable or not directly observable. Inference of population structure is highly important in molecular epidemiology where pathogen phylogenetics is increasingly used to infer transmission patterns and detect outbreaks. Discrepancies between observed and idealized genealogies, such as those generated by the coalescent process, can be quantified, and where significant differences occur, may reveal the action of natural selection, host population structure, or other demographic and epidemiological heterogeneities. We have developed a fast non-parametric statistical test for detection of cryptic population structure in time-scaled phylogenetic trees. The test is based on contrasting estimated phylogenies with the theoretically expected phylodynamic ordering of common ancestors in two clades within a coalescent framework. These statistical tests have also motivated the development of algorithms which can be used to quickly screen a phylogenetic tree for clades which are likely to share a distinct demographic or epidemiological history. Epidemiological applications include identification of outbreaks in vulnerable host populations or rapid expansion of genotypes with a fitness advantage. To demonstrate the utility of these methods for outbreak detection, we applied the new methods to large phylogenies reconstructed from thousands of HIV-1 partial pol sequences. This revealed the presence of clades which had grown rapidly in the recent past and was significantly concentrated in young men, suggesting recent and rapid transmission in that group. Furthermore, to demonstrate the utility of these methods for the study of antimicrobial resistance, we applied the new methods to a large phylogeny reconstructed from whole genome Neisseria gonorrhoeae sequences. We find that population structure detected using these methods closely overlaps with the appearance and expansion of mutations conferring antimicrobial resistance. [Antimicrobial resistance; coalescent; HIV; population structure.].

Spatiotemporal reconstruction and transmission dynamics during the 2016-17 H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Italy

Effective control of avian diseases in domestic populations requires understanding of the transmission dynamics facilitating viral emergence and spread. In 2016-17, Italy experienced a significant avian influenza epidemic caused by a highly pathogenic A(H5N8) virus, which affected domestic premises housing around 2.7 million birds, primarily in the north-eastern regions with the highest density of poultry farms (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto). We perform integrated analyses of genetic, spatiotemporal and host data within a Bayesian phylogenetic framework. Using continuous and discrete phylogeography, we estimate the locations of movements responsible for the spread and persistence of the epidemic. The information derived from these analyses on rates of transmission between regions through time can be used to assess the success of control measures. Using an approach based on phylogenetic-temporal distances between domestic cases, we infer the presence of cryptic wild bird-mediated transmission, information that can be used to complement existing epidemiological methods for distinguishing transmission within the domestic population from incursions across the wildlife-domestic interface, a common challenge in veterinary epidemiology. Spatiotemporal reconstruction of the epidemic reveals a highly skewed distribution of virus movements with a high proportion of shorter distance local movements interspersed with occasional long-distance dispersal events associated with wild birds. We also show how such inference be used to identify possible instances of human-mediated movements where distances between phylogenetically linked domestic cases are unusually high.

Inference of Nipah virus evolution, 1999-2015

Despite near-annual human outbreaks of Nipah virus (NiV) disease in Bangladesh, typically due to individual spillover events from the local bat population, only twenty whole-genome NiV sequences exist from humans and ten from bats. NiV whole-genome sequences from annual outbreaks have been challenging to generate, primarily due to the low viral load in human throat swab and serum specimens. Here, we used targeted enrichment with custom NiV-specific probes and generated thirty-five additional unique full-length genomic sequences directly from human specimens and viral isolates. We inferred the temporal and geographic evolutionary history of NiV in Bangladesh and expanded a tool to visualize NiV spatio-temporal spread from a Bayesian continuous diffusion analysis. We observed that strains from Bangladesh segregated into two distinct clades that have intermingled geographically in Bangladesh over time and space. As these clades expanded geographically and temporally, we did not observe evidence for significant branch and site-specific selection, except for a single site in the Henipavirus L polymerase. However, the Bangladesh 1 and 2 clades are differentiated by mutations initially occurring in the polymerase, with additional mutations accumulating in the N, G, F, P, and L genes on external branches. Modeling the historic geographical and temporal spread demonstrates that while widespread, NiV does not exhibit significant genetic variation in Bangladesh. Thus, future public health measures should address whether NiV within in the bat population also exhibits comparable genetic variation, if zoonotic transmission results in a genetic bottleneck and if surveillance techniques are detecting only a subset of NiV.

Genome sequencing and its use in public health responses to COVID-19

Human history has been shaped by the heavy burden of infectious disease pandemics. Yet, despite the bitter lessons learned from history, even those in living memory such as the 1918 influenza pandemic and HIV/AIDS epidemic, COVID-19 stands unique in the sudden, immense health and economic impacts to the global human population. While the costs have been great, and the long-term consequences are still being revealed, the urgent need for action has also brought forward rapid developments and innovations to combat COVID-19 and better prepare us for future infectious disease outbreaks. One such area has been the widespread adoption of whole genome sequencing to inform public health responses. Genome sequencing during the COVID-19 pandemic has become key to tracking the spread of SARS-CoV-2 at all scales, to such a degree that terms such as genomics, mutations, variants and clusters are now common vernacular to politicians, health officials and the general public. This article provides a commentary on the genesis and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing, and its critical on-going role in the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

An approach to integrate population mobility patterns and sociocultural factors in communicable disease preparedness and response

Complex human movement patterns driven by a range of economic, health, social, and environmental factors influence communicable disease spread. Further, cross-border movement impacts disparate public health systems of neighboring countries, making an effective response to disease importation or exportation more challenging. Despite the array of quantitative techniques and social science approaches available to analyze movement patterns, there continues to be a dearth of methods within the applied public health setting to gather and use information about community-level mobility dynamics. Population Connectivity Across Borders (PopCAB) is a rapidly-deployable toolkit to characterize multisectoral movement patterns through community engagement using focus group discussions or key informant interviews, each with participatory mapping, and apply the results to tailor preparedness and response strategies. The Togo and Benin Ministries of Health (MOH), in collaboration with the Abidjan Lagos Corridor Organization and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, adapted and applied PopCAB to inform cross-border preparedness and response strategies for multinational Lassa fever outbreaks. Initially, the team implemented binational, national-level PopCAB activities in March 2017, highlighting details about a circular migration pathway across northern Togo, Benin, and Nigeria. After applying those results to respond to a cross-border Lassa fever outbreak in February 2018, the team designed an expanded PopCAB initiative in April 2018. In eight days, they trained 54 MOH staff who implemented 21 PopCAB focus group discussions in 14 cities with 224 community-level participants representing six stakeholder groups. Using the newly-identified 167 points of interest and 176 routes associated with a circular migration pathway across Togo, Benin, and Nigeria, the Togo and Benin MOH refined their cross-border information sharing and collaboration processes for Lassa fever and other communicable diseases, selected health facilities with increased community connectivity for enhanced training, and identified techniques to better integrate traditional healers in surveillance and community education strategies. They also integrated the final toolkit in national- and district-level public health preparedness plans. Integrating PopCAB in public health practice to better understand and accommodate population movement patterns can help countries mitigate the international spread of disease in support of improved global health security and International Health Regulations requirements.

Assignment of epidemiological lineages in an emerging pandemic using the pangolin tool

The response of the global virus genomics community to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has been unprecedented, with significant advances made towards the 'real-time' generation and sharing of SARS-CoV-2 genomic data. The rapid growth in virus genome data production has necessitated the development of new analytical methods that can deal with orders of magnitude of more genomes than previously available. Here, we present and describe Phylogenetic Assignment of Named Global Outbreak Lineages (pangolin), a computational tool that has been developed to assign the most likely lineage to a given SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence according to the Pango dynamic lineage nomenclature scheme. To date, nearly two million virus genomes have been submitted to the web-application implementation of pangolin, which has facilitated the SARS-CoV-2 genomic epidemiology and provided researchers with access to actionable information about the pandemic's transmission lineages.

Preparing for Emerging Zoonotic Viruses

The risk of emergence and spread of novel human pathogens originating from an animal reservoir has increased in the past decades. However, the unpredictable nature of disease emergence makes surveillance and preparedness challenging. Knowledge of general risk factors for emergence and spread, combined with local level data is needed to develop a risk-based methodology for early detection. This involves the implementation of the One Health approach, integrating human, animal and environmental health sectors, as well as social sciences, bioinformatics and more. Recent technical advances, such as metagenomic sequencing, will aid the rapid detection of novel pathogens on the human-animal interface.

A Darwinian Uncertainty Principle

Reconstructing ancestral characters and traits along a phylogenetic tree is central to evolutionary biology. It is the key to understanding morphology changes among species, inferring ancestral biochemical properties of life, or recovering migration routes in phylogeography. The goal is 2-fold: to reconstruct the character state at the tree root (e.g., the region of origin of some species) and to understand the process of state changes along the tree (e.g., species flow between countries). We deal here with discrete characters, which are “unique,” as opposed to sequence characters (nucleotides or amino-acids), where we assume the same model for all the characters (or for large classes of characters with site-dependent models) and thus benefit from multiple information sources. In this framework, we use mathematics and simulations to demonstrate that although each goal can be achieved with high accuracy individually, it is generally impossible to accurately estimate both the root state and the rates of state changes along the tree branches, from the observed data at the tips of the tree. This is because the global rates of state changes along the branches that are optimal for the two estimation tasks have opposite trends, leading to a fundamental trade-off in accuracy. This inherent “Darwinian uncertainty principle” concerning the simultaneous estimation of “patterns” and “processes” governs ancestral reconstructions in biology. For certain tree shapes (typically speciation trees) the uncertainty of simultaneous estimation is reduced when more tips are present; however, for other tree shapes it does not (e.g., coalescent trees used in population genetics).

Disease control across urban-rural gradients

Controlling the regional re-emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) after its initial spread in ever-changing personal contact networks and disease landscapes is a challenging task. In a landscape context, contact opportunities within and between populations are changing rapidly as lockdown measures are relaxed and a number of social activities re-activated. Using an individual-based metapopulation model, we explored the efficacy of different control strategies across an urban-rural gradient in Wales, UK. Our model shows that isolation of symptomatic cases or regional lockdowns in response to local outbreaks have limited efficacy unless the overall transmission rate is kept persistently low. Additional isolation of non-symptomatic infected individuals, who may be detected by effective test-and-trace strategies, is pivotal to reducing the overall epidemic size over a wider range of transmission scenarios. We define an 'urban-rural gradient in epidemic size' as a correlation between regional epidemic size and connectivity within the region, with more highly connected urban populations experiencing relatively larger outbreaks. For interventions focused on regional lockdowns, the strength of such gradients in epidemic size increased with higher travel frequencies, indicating a reduced efficacy of the control measure in the urban regions under these conditions. When both non-symptomatic and symptomatic individuals are isolated or regional lockdown strategies are enforced, we further found the strongest urban-rural epidemic gradients at high transmission rates. This effect was reversed for strategies targeted at symptomatic individuals only. Our results emphasize the importance of test-and-trace strategies and maintaining low transmission rates for efficiently controlling SARS-CoV-2 spread, both at landscape scale and in urban areas.

Methods for Rapid Mobility Estimation to Support Outbreak Response

When pressed for time, outbreak investigators often use homogeneous mixing models to model infectious diseases in data-poor regions. But recent outbreaks such as the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa have shown the limitations of this approach in an era of increasing urbanization and connectivity. Both outbreak detection and predictive modeling depend on realistic estimates of human and disease mobility, but these data are difficult to acquire in a timely manner. This is especially true when dealing with an emerging outbreak in an under-resourced nation. Weighted travel networks with realistic estimates for population flows are often proprietary, expensive, or nonexistent. Here we propose a method for rapidly generating a mobility model from open-source data. As an example, we use road and river network data, along with population estimates, to construct a realistic model of human movement between health zones in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Using these mobility data, we then fit an epidemic model to real-world surveillance data from the recent Ebola outbreak in the Nord Kivu region of the DRC to illustrate a potential use of the generated mobility estimation. In addition to providing a way for rapid risk estimation, this approach brings together novel techniques to merge diverse GIS datasets that can then be used to address issues that pertain to public health and global health security.

Going back to the roots: Evaluating Bayesian phylogeographic models with discrete trait uncertainty

Phylogeography is a popular way to analyze virus sequences annotated with discrete, epidemiologically-relevant, trait data. For applied public health surveillance, a key quantity of interest is often the state at the root of the inferred phylogeny. In epidemiological terms, this represents the geographic origin of the observed outbreak. Since determining the origin of an outbreak is often critical for public health intervention, it is prudent to understand how well phylogeographic models perform this root state classification task under various analytical scenarios. Specifically, we investigate how discrete state space and sequence data set influence the root state classification accuracy. We performed phylogeographic inference on several simulated DNA data sets while i) increasing the number of sequences and ii) increasing the total number of possible discrete trait values. We show that phylogeographic models tend to perform best at intermediate sequence data set sizes. Further, we demonstrate that a popular metric used for evaluation of phylogeographic models, the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, both increases with discrete state space and data set sizes. Further, by modeling phylogeographic root state classification accuracy using logistic regression, we show that KL is not supported as a predictor of model accuracy, indicating its limited utility for assessing phylogeographic model performance on empirical data. These results suggest that relying solely on the KL metric may lead to artificially inflated support for models with finer discretization schemes and larger data set sizes. These results will be important for public health practitioners seeking to use phylogeographic models for applied infectious disease surveillance.

Rapid implementation of SARS-CoV-2 sequencing to investigate cases of health-care associated COVID-19: a prospective genomic surveillance study

BACKGROUND

The burden and influence of health-care associated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections is unknown. We aimed to examine the use of rapid SARS-CoV-2 sequencing combined with detailed epidemiological analysis to investigate health-care associated SARS-CoV-2 infections and inform infection control measures.

METHODS

In this prospective surveillance study, we set up rapid SARS-CoV-2 nanopore sequencing from PCR-positive diagnostic samples collected from our hospital (Cambridge, UK) and a random selection from hospitals in the East of England, enabling sample-to-sequence in less than 24 h. We established a weekly review and reporting system with integration of genomic and epidemiological data to investigate suspected health-care associated COVID-19 cases.

FINDINGS

Between March 13 and April 24, 2020, we collected clinical data and samples from 5613 patients with COVID-19 from across the East of England. We sequenced 1000 samples producing 747 high-quality genomes. We combined epidemiological and genomic analysis of the 299 patients from our hospital and identified 35 clusters of identical viruses involving 159 patients. 92 (58%) of 159 patients had strong epidemiological links and 32 (20%) patients had plausible epidemiological links. These results were fed back to clinical, infection control, and hospital management teams, leading to infection-control interventions and informing patient safety reporting.

INTERPRETATION

We established real-time genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in a UK hospital and showed the benefit of combined genomic and epidemiological analysis for the investigation of health-care associated COVID-19. This approach enabled us to detect cryptic transmission events and identify opportunities to target infection-control interventions to further reduce health-care associated infections. Our findings have important implications for national public health policy as they enable rapid tracking and investigation of infections in hospital and community settings.

FUNDING

COVID-19 Genomics UK funded by the Department of Health and Social Care, UK Research and Innovation, and the Wellcome Sanger Institute.

Amplicon-Based Detection and Sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 in Nasopharyngeal Swabs from Patients With COVID-19 and Identification of Deletions in the Viral Genome That Encode Proteins Involved in Interferon Antagonism

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Sequencing the viral genome as the outbreak progresses is important, particularly in the identification of emerging isolates with different pathogenic potential and to identify whether nucleotide changes in the genome will impair clinical diagnostic tools such as real-time PCR assays. Although single nucleotide polymorphisms and point mutations occur during the replication of coronaviruses, one of the biggest drivers in genetic change is recombination. This can manifest itself in insertions and/or deletions in the viral genome. Therefore, sequencing strategies that underpin molecular epidemiology and inform virus biology in patients should take these factors into account. A long amplicon/read length-based RT-PCR sequencing approach focused on the Oxford Nanopore MinION/GridION platforms was developed to identify and sequence the SARS-CoV-2 genome in samples from patients with or suspected of COVID-19. The protocol, termed Rapid Sequencing Long Amplicons (RSLAs) used random primers to generate cDNA from RNA purified from a sample from a patient, followed by single or multiplex PCRs to generate longer amplicons of the viral genome. The base protocol was used to identify SARS-CoV-2 in a variety of clinical samples and proved sensitive in identifying viral RNA in samples from patients that had been declared negative using other nucleic acid-based assays (false negative). Sequencing the amplicons revealed that a number of patients had a proportion of viral genomes with deletions.

Estimating effective population size changes from preferentially sampled genetic sequences

Coalescent theory combined with statistical modeling allows us to estimate effective population size fluctuations from molecular sequences of individuals sampled from a population of interest. When sequences are sampled serially through time and the distribution of the sampling times depends on the effective population size, explicit statistical modeling of sampling times improves population size estimation. Previous work assumed that the genealogy relating sampled sequences is known and modeled sampling times as an inhomogeneous Poisson process with log-intensity equal to a linear function of the log-transformed effective population size. We improve this approach in two ways. First, we extend the method to allow for joint Bayesian estimation of the genealogy, effective population size trajectory, and other model parameters. Next, we improve the sampling time model by incorporating additional sources of information in the form of time-varying covariates. We validate our new modeling framework using a simulation study and apply our new methodology to analyses of population dynamics of seasonal influenza and to the recent Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa.

Estimating changes in the number of individuals in a given population is a challenging problem in some settings. For example, estimating population size trajectories of the number of people infected by a pathogen (e.g., Influenza virus) is a difficult problem, because many infections in a large population remain unobserved/hidden. One indirect way of assessing population size changes is to take a sample of individuals from the population of interest and analyze genetic sequences from these individuals (e.g., Influenza virus genomes). Intuitively, genetic data is informative about population size changes, because genetic diversity increases/decreases together with the population size. However, if we sample more individuals when the population size increases and less when it decreases, this strategy produces biased results. To avoid this bias, we propose a method that explicitly and flexibly models potential dependency of genetic sequence sampling on the population size. An added bonus of this new modeling framework is more precise estimation of population size changes. We demonstrate strengths of our new methodology on simulated data and on genetic sequences of Influenza and Ebola viruses.

Accommodating individual travel history and unsampled diversity in Bayesian phylogeographic inference of SARS-CoV-2

Spatiotemporal bias in genome sampling can severely confound discrete trait phylogeographic inference. This has impeded our ability to accurately track the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the availability of unprecedented numbers of SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Here, we present an approach to integrate individual travel history data in Bayesian phylogeographic inference and apply it to the early spread of SARS-CoV-2. We demonstrate that including travel history data yields i) more realistic hypotheses of virus spread and ii) higher posterior predictive accuracy compared to including only sampling location. We further explore methods to ameliorate the impact of sampling bias by augmenting the phylogeographic analysis with lineages from undersampled locations. Our reconstructions reinforce specific transmission hypotheses suggested by the inclusion of travel history data, but also suggest alternative routes of virus migration that are plausible within the epidemiological context but are not apparent with current sampling efforts.

Molecular epidemiology of the first wave of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection in Thailand in 2020

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a major global concern. Several SARS-CoV-2 gene mutations have been reported. In the current study associations between SARS-CoV-2 gene variation and exposure history during the first wave of the outbreak in Thailand between January and May 2020 were investigated. Forty samples were collected at different time points during the outbreak, and parts of the SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence were used to assess genomic variation patterns. The phylogenetics of the 40 samples were clustered into L, GH, GR, O and T types. T types were predominant in Bangkok during the first local outbreak centered at a boxing stadium and entertainment venues in March 2020. Imported cases were infected with various types, including L, GH, GR and O. In southern Thailand introductions of different genotypes were identified at different times. No clinical parameters were significantly associated with differences in genotype. The results indicated local transmission (type T, Spike protein (A829T)) and imported cases (types L, GH, GR and O) during the first wave in Thailand. Genetic and epidemiological data may contribute to national policy formulation, transmission tracking and the implementation of measures to control viral spread.

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling to estimate past population dynamics using the skygrid coalescent model in a Bayesian phylogenetics framework

Nonparametric coalescent-based models are often employed to infer past population dynamics over time. Several of these models, such as the skyride and skygrid models, are equipped with a block-updating Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme to efficiently estimate model parameters. The advent of powerful computational hardware along with the use of high-performance libraries for statistical phylogenetics has, however, made the development of alternative estimation methods feasible. We here present the implementation and performance assessment of a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo gradient-based sampler to infer the parameters of the skygrid model. The skygrid is a popular and flexible coalescent-based model for estimating population dynamics over time and is available in BEAST 1.10.5, a widely-used software package for Bayesian pylogenetic and phylodynamic analysis. Taking into account the increased computational cost of gradient evaluation, we report substantial increases in effective sample size per time unit compared to the established block-updating sampler. We expect gradient-based samplers to assume an increasingly important role for different classes of parameters typically estimated in Bayesian phylogenetic and phylodynamic analyses.

Variation around the dominant viral genome sequence contributes to viral load and outcome in patients with Ebola virus disease

BACKGROUND

Viral load is a major contributor to outcome in patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD), with high values leading to a fatal outcome. Evidence from the 2013-2016 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak indicated that different genotypes of the virus can have different phenotypes in patients. Additionally, due to the error-prone nature of viral RNA synthesis in an individual patient, the EBOV genome exists around a dominant viral genome sequence. The minor variants within a patient may contribute to the overall phenotype in terms of viral protein function. To investigate the effects of these minor variants, blood samples from patients with acute EVD were deeply sequenced.

RESULTS

We examine the minor variant frequency between patients with acute EVD who survived infection with those who died. Non-synonymous differences in viral proteins were identified that have implications for viral protein function. The greatest frequency of substitution was identified at three codon sites in the L gene-which encodes the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp). Recapitulating this in an assay for virus replication, these substitutions result in aberrant viral RNA synthesis and correlate with patient outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Together, these findings support the notion that in patients who survived EVD, in some cases, the genetic variability of the virus resulted in deleterious mutations that affected viral protein function, leading to reduced viral load. Such mutations may also lead to persistent strains of the virus and be associated with recrudescent infections.

Species-Specific Evolution of Ebola Virus during Replication in Human and Bat Cells

Ebola virus (EBOV) causes a severe, often fatal disease in humans and nonhuman primates. Within the past decade, EBOV has caused two large and difficult-to-control outbreaks, one of which recently ended in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Bats are the likely reservoir of EBOV, but little is known of their relationship with the virus. We perform serial passages of EBOV in human and bat cells and use circular sequencing to compare the short-term evolution of the virus. Virus populations passaged in bat cells have sequence markers indicative of host RNA editing enzyme activity, including evidence for ADAR editing of the EBOV glycoprotein. Multiple regions in the EBOV genome appear to have undergone adaptive evolution when passaged in bat and human cells. Individual mutated viruses are rescued and characterized. Our results provide insight into the host species-specific evolution of EBOV and highlight the adaptive flexibility of the virus.

Phylogeographic Analysis Reveals Multiple International transmission Events Have Driven the Global Emergence of Escherichia coli O157:H7

BACKGROUND

Shiga toxin-producing Escherchia coli (STEC) O157:H7 is a zoonotic pathogen that causes numerous food and waterborne disease outbreaks. It is globally distributed, but its origin and the temporal sequence of its geographical spread are unknown.

METHODS

We analyzed whole-genome sequencing data of 757 isolates from 4 continents, and performed a pan-genome analysis to identify the core genome and, from this, extracted single-nucleotide polymorphisms. A timed phylogeographic analysis was performed on a subset of the isolates to investigate its worldwide spread.

RESULTS

The common ancestor of this set of isolates occurred around 1890 (1845-1925) and originated from the Netherlands. Phylogeographic analysis identified 34 major transmission events. The earliest were predominantly intercontinental, moving from Europe to Australia around 1937 (1909-1958), to the United States in 1941 (1921-1962), to Canada in 1960 (1943-1979), and from Australia to New Zealand in 1966 (1943-1982). This pre-dates the first reported human case of E. coli O157:H7, which was in 1975 from the United States.

CONCLUSIONS

Inter- and intra-continental transmission events have resulted in the current international distribution of E. coli O157:H7, and it is likely that these events were facilitated by animal movements (eg, Holstein Friesian cattle). These findings will inform policy on action that is crucial to reduce the further spread of E. coli O157:H7 and other (emerging) STEC strains globally.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus dissemination across pig production systems in the United States

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) remains widespread in the North American pig population. Despite improvements in virus characterization, it is unclear whether PRRSV infections are a product of viral circulation within production systems (local) or across production systems (external). Here, we examined the local and external dissemination dynamics of PRRSV and the processes facilitating its spread in three production systems. Overall, PRRSV genetic diversity has declined since 2018, while phylodynamic results support frequent external transmission. We found that PRRSV dissemination predominantly occurred mostly through transmission between farms of different production companies for several months, especially from November until May, a timeframe already established as PRRSV season. Although local PRRSV dissemination occurred mainly through regular pig flow (from sow to nursery and then to finisher farms), an important flux of PRRSV dissemination also occurred in the opposite direction, from finisher to sow and nursery farms, highlighting the importance of downstream farms as sources of the virus. Our results also showed that farms with pig densities of 500 to 1,000 pig/km² and farms located at a range within 0.5 km and 0.7 km from major roads were more likely to be infected by PRRSV, whereas farms at an elevation of 41 to 61 meters and surrounded by denser vegetation were less likely to be infected, indicating their role as dissemination barriers. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that external dissemination was intense, and reinforce the importance of farm proximity on PRRSV spread. Thus, consideration of farm location, geographic characteristics and animal densities across production systems may help to forecast PRRSV collateral dissemination.

Genomic sequence of yellow fever virus from a Dutch traveller returning from the Gambia-Senegal region, the Netherlands, November 2018

In November 2018, yellow fever was diagnosed in a Dutch traveller returning from a bicycle tour in the Gambia-Senegal region. A complete genome sequence of yellow fever virus (YFV) from the case was generated and clustered phylogenetically with YFV from the Gambia and Senegal, ruling out importation into the Netherlands from recent outbreaks in Brazil or Angola. We emphasise the need for increased public awareness of YFV vaccination before travelling to endemic countries.

Genomic epidemiology and evolutionary dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus group B in Kilifi, Kenya, 2015-17

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) circulates worldwide, occurring seasonally in communities, and is a leading cause of acute respiratory illness in young children. There is paucity of genomic data from purposively sampled populations by which to investigate evolutionary dynamics and transmission patterns of RSV. Here we present an analysis of 295 RSV group B (RSVB) genomes from Kilifi, coastal Kenya, sampled from individuals seeking outpatient care in nine health facilities across a defined geographical area (∼890 km²), over two RSV epidemics between 2015 and 2017. RSVB diversity was characterized by multiple virus introductions into the area and co-circulation of distinct genetic clusters, which transmitted and diversified locally with varying frequency. Increase in relative genetic diversity paralleled seasonal virus incidence. Importantly, we identified a cluster of viruses that emerged in the 2016/17 epidemic, carrying distinct amino-acid signatures including a novel nonsynonymous change (K68Q) in antigenic site ∅ in the Fusion protein. RSVB diversity was additionally marked by signature nonsynonymous substitutions that were unique to particular genomic clusters, some under diversifying selection. Our findings provide insights into recent evolutionary and epidemiological behaviors of RSVB, and highlight possible emergence of a novel antigenic variant, which has implications on current prophylactic strategies in development.

Origin and evolution of emerging Liao ning Virus (genus Seadornavirus, family Reoviridae)

Background

Liao ning virus (LNV) is a member of the genus Seadornavirus, family Reoviridae and has been isolated from kinds of vectors in Asia and Australia. However, there are no systematic studies describe the molecular genetic evolution and migration of LNVs. With the development of bioinformatics, viral genetic data combining the information of virus isolation time and locations could be integrated to infer the virus evolution and spread in nature.

Methods

Here, a phylogenetic and phylogeographic analysis using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations was conducted on the LNVs isolated from a variety of vectors during 1990–2014 to identify the evolution and migration patterns of LNVs.

Results

The results demonstrated that the LNV could be divided into 3 genotypes, of which genotype 1 mainly composed of LNVs isolated from Australia during 1990 to 2014 and the original LNV strain (LNV-NE97–31) isolated from Liaoning province in northern China in 1997, genotype 2 comprised of the isolates all from Xinjiang province in western China and genotype 3 consisted the isolates from Qinghai and Shanxi province of central China. LNVs emerged about 272 years ago and gradually evolved into three lineages in the order genotype 1, genotype 2 and genotype 3. Following phylogeographic analysis, it shows genotype 1 LNVs transmitted from Australia (113°E-153°E,10°S-42°S) to Liaoning province (118°E-125°E,38°N-43°N) in Northeast Asian continent then further spread across the central part of China to western China (75°E-95°E,35°N-50°N).

Conclusion

LNVs were initially isolated from Liaoning province of China in the Northeast Asia, however, the present study revealed that LNVs were first appeared in Australia in the South Pacific region and transmitted to mainland China then rapidly spread across China and evolved three different genotypes. The above results suggested that LNV had the characteristics of long-distance transmission and there were great genetic diversity existed in the LNV population. Notably, current information of 80 strains of LNVs are limited. It is of great importance to strengthen the surveillance of LNVs to explore its real origin in nature and monitoring of the LNVs’ population variation and maintain vigilance to avoid LNV breaking through the species barrier and further clarify its relationship to human and animal infection.

Viral genomics in Ebola virus research

Filoviruses such as Ebola virus continue to pose a substantial health risk to humans. Advances in the sequencing and functional characterization of both pathogen and host genomes have provided a wealth of knowledge to clinicians, epidemiologists and public health responders during outbreaks of high-consequence viral disease. Here, we describe how genomics has been historically used to investigate Ebola virus disease outbreaks and how new technologies allow for rapid, large-scale data generation at the point of care. We highlight how genomics extends beyond consensus-level sequencing of the virus to include intra-host viral transcriptomics and the characterization of host responses in acute and persistently infected patients. Similar genomics techniques can also be applied to the characterization of non-human primate animal models and to known natural reservoirs of filoviruses, and metagenomic sequencing can be the key to the discovery of novel filoviruses. Finally, we outline the importance of reverse genetics systems that can swiftly characterize filoviruses as soon as their genome sequences are available.

Population structure across scales facilitates coexistence and spatial heterogeneity of antibiotic-resistant infections

Antibiotic-resistant infections are a growing threat to human health, but basic features of the eco-evolutionary dynamics remain unexplained. Most prominently, there is no clear mechanism for the long-term coexistence of both drug-sensitive and resistant strains at intermediate levels, a ubiquitous pattern seen in surveillance data. Here we show that accounting for structured or spatially-heterogeneous host populations and variability in antibiotic consumption can lead to persistent coexistence over a wide range of treatment coverages, drug efficacies, costs of resistance, and mixing patterns. Moreover, this mechanism can explain other puzzling spatiotemporal features of drug-resistance epidemiology that have received less attention, such as large differences in the prevalence of resistance between geographical regions with similar antibiotic consumption or that neighbor one another. We find that the same amount of antibiotic use can lead to very different levels of resistance depending on how treatment is distributed in a transmission network. We also identify parameter regimes in which population structure alone cannot support coexistence, suggesting the need for other mechanisms to explain the epidemiology of antibiotic resistance. Our analysis identifies key features of host population structure that can be used to assess resistance risk and highlights the need to include spatial or demographic heterogeneity in models to guide resistance management.

Multiple approaches for massively parallel sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 genomes directly from clinical samples

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) has caused a major epidemic worldwide; however, much is yet to be known about the epidemiology and evolution of the virus partly due to the scarcity of full-length SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) genomes reported. One reason is that the challenges underneath sequencing SARS-CoV-2 directly from clinical samples have not been completely tackled, i.e., sequencing samples with low viral load often results in insufficient viral reads for analyses.

METHODS

We applied a novel multiplex PCR amplicon (amplicon)-based and hybrid capture (capture)-based sequencing, as well as ultra-high-throughput metatranscriptomic (meta) sequencing in retrieving complete genomes, inter-individual and intra-individual variations of SARS-CoV-2 from serials dilutions of a cultured isolate, and eight clinical samples covering a range of sample types and viral loads. We also examined and compared the sensitivity, accuracy, and other characteristics of these approaches in a comprehensive manner.

RESULTS

We demonstrated that both amplicon and capture methods efficiently enriched SARS-CoV-2 content from clinical samples, while the enrichment efficiency of amplicon outran that of capture in more challenging samples. We found that capture was not as accurate as meta and amplicon in identifying between-sample variations, whereas amplicon method was not as accurate as the other two in investigating within-sample variations, suggesting amplicon sequencing was not suitable for studying virus-host interactions and viral transmission that heavily rely on intra-host dynamics. We illustrated that meta uncovered rich genetic information in the clinical samples besides SARS-CoV-2, providing references for clinical diagnostics and therapeutics. Taken all factors above and cost-effectiveness into consideration, we proposed guidance for how to choose sequencing strategy for SARS-CoV-2 under different situations.

CONCLUSIONS

This is, to the best of our knowledge, the first work systematically investigating inter- and intra-individual variations of SARS-CoV-2 using amplicon- and capture-based whole-genome sequencing, as well as the first comparative study among multiple approaches. Our work offers practical solutions for genome sequencing and analyses of SARS-CoV-2 and other emerging viruses.

Accommodating individual travel history, global mobility, and unsampled diversity in phylogeography: a SARS-CoV-2 case study

Spatiotemporal bias in genome sequence sampling can severely confound phylogeographic inference based on discrete trait ancestral reconstruction. This has impeded our ability to accurately track the emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2, which is the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the availability of staggering numbers of genomes on a global scale, evolutionary reconstructions of SARS-CoV-2 are hindered by the slow accumulation of sequence divergence over its relatively short transmission history. When confronted with these issues, incorporating additional contextual data may critically inform phylodynamic reconstructions. Here, we present a new approach to integrate individual travel history data in Bayesian phylogeographic inference and apply it to the early spread of SARS-CoV-2, while also including global air transportation data. We demonstrate that including travel history data for each SARS-CoV-2 genome yields more realistic reconstructions of virus spread, particularly when travelers from undersampled locations are included to mitigate sampling bias. We further explore the impact of sampling bias by incorporating unsampled sequences from undersampled locations in the analyses. Our reconstructions reinforce specific transmission hypotheses suggested by the inclusion of travel history data, but also suggest alternative routes of virus migration that are plausible within the epidemiological context but are not apparent with current sampling efforts. Although further research is needed to fully examine the performance of our new data integration approaches and to further improve them, they represent multiple new avenues for directly addressing the colossal issue of sample bias in phylogeographic inference.

Ethical challenges in pathogen sequencing: a systematic scoping review

Background: Going forward, the routine implementation of genomic surveillance activities and outbreak investigation is to be expected. We sought to systematically identify the emerging ethical challenges; and to systematically assess the gaps in ethical frameworks or thinking and identify where further work is needed to solve practical challenges.

Methods: We systematically searched indexed academic literature from PubMed, Google Scholar, and Web of Science from 2000 to April 2019 for peer-reviewed articles that substantively engaged in discussion of ethical issues in the use of pathogen genome sequencing technologies for diagnostic, surveillance and outbreak investigation.

Results: 28 articles were identified; nine United States, five United Kingdom, five The Netherlands, three Canada, two Switzerland, one Australia, two South Africa, and one Italy. Eight articles were specifically about the use of sequencing in HIV. Eleven were not specific to a particular disease. Results were organized into four themes: tensions between public and private interests; difficulties with translation from research to clinical and public health practice; the importance of community trust and support; equity and global partnerships; and the importance of context.

Conclusion: While pathogen sequencing has the potential to be transformative for public health, there are a number of key ethical issues that must be addressed, particularly around the conditions of use for pathogen sequence data. Ethical standards should be informed by public values, and further empirical work investigating stakeholders’ views are required. Development in the field should also be under-pinned by a strong commitment to values of justice, in particular global health equity.

The Expectations and Challenges of Wildlife Disease Research in the Era of Genomics: Forecasting with a Horizon Scan-like Exercise

The outbreak and transmission of disease-causing pathogens are contributing to the unprecedented rate of biodiversity decline. Recent advances in genomics have coalesced into powerful tools to monitor, detect, and reconstruct the role of pathogens impacting wildlife populations. Wildlife researchers are thus uniquely positioned to merge ecological and evolutionary studies with genomic technologies to exploit unprecedented "Big Data" tools in disease research; however, many researchers lack the training and expertise required to use these computationally intensive methodologies. To address this disparity, the inaugural "Genomics of Disease in Wildlife" workshop assembled early to mid-career professionals with expertise across scientific disciplines (e.g., genomics, wildlife biology, veterinary sciences, and conservation management) for training in the application of genomic tools to wildlife disease research. A horizon scanning-like exercise, an activity to identify forthcoming trends and challenges, performed by the workshop participants identified and discussed 5 themes considered to be the most pressing to the application of genomics in wildlife disease research: 1) "Improving communication," 2) "Methodological and analytical advancements," 3) "Translation into practice," 4) "Integrating landscape ecology and genomics," and 5) "Emerging new questions." Wide-ranging solutions from the horizon scan were international in scope, itemized both deficiencies and strengths in wildlife genomic initiatives, promoted the use of genomic technologies to unite wildlife and human disease research, and advocated best practices for optimal use of genomic tools in wildlife disease projects. The results offer a glimpse of the potential revolution in human and wildlife disease research possible through multi-disciplinary collaborations at local, regional, and global scales.

Multivariate time-series analysis of biomarkers from a dengue cohort offers new approaches for diagnosis and prognosis

Dengue is a major public health problem worldwide with distinct clinical manifestations: an acute presentation (dengue fever, DF) similar to other febrile illnesses (OFI) and a more severe, life-threatening form (severe dengue, SD). Due to nonspecific clinical presentation during the early phase of dengue infection, differentiating DF from OFI has remained a challenge, and current methods to determine severity of dengue remain poor early predictors. We present a prospective clinical cohort study conducted in Caracas, Venezuela from 2001-2005, designed to determine whether clinical and hematological parameters could distinguish DF from OFI, and identify early prognostic biomarkers of SD. From 204 enrolled suspected dengue patients, there were 111 confirmed dengue cases. Piecewise mixed effects regression and nonparametric statistics were used to analyze longitudinal records. Decreased serum albumin and fibrinogen along with increased D-dimer, thrombin-antithrombin complex, activated partial thromboplastin time and thrombin time were prognostic of SD on the day of defervescence. In the febrile phase, the day-to-day rates of change in serum albumin and fibrinogen concentration, along with platelet counts, were significantly decreased in dengue patients compared to OFI, while the day-to-day rates of change of lymphocytes (%) and thrombin time were increased. In dengue patients, the absolute lymphocytes to neutrophils ratio showed specific temporal increase, enabling classification of dengue patients entering the critical phase with an area under the ROC curve of 0.79. Secondary dengue patients had elongation of Thrombin time compared to primary cases while the D-dimer formation (fibrinolysis marker) remained always lower for secondary compared to primary cases. Based on partial analysis of 31 viral complete genomes, a high frequency of C-to-T transitions located at the third codon position was observed, suggesting deamination events with five major hot spots of amino acid polymorphic sites outside in non-structural proteins. No association of severe outcome was statistically significant for any of the five major polymorphic sites found. This study offers an improved understanding of dengue hemostasis and a novel way of approaching dengue diagnosis and disease prognosis using piecewise mixed effect regression modeling. It also suggests that a better discrimination of the day of disease can improve the diagnostic and prognostic classification power of clinical variables using ROC curve analysis. The piecewise mixed effect regression model corroborated key early clinical determinants of disease, and offers a time-series approach for future vaccine and pathogenesis clinical studies.

Online Bayesian Phylodynamic Inference in BEAST with Application to Epidemic Reconstruction

Reconstructing pathogen dynamics from genetic data as they become available during an outbreak or epidemic represents an important statistical scenario in which observations arrive sequentially in time and one is interested in performing inference in an "online" fashion. Widely used Bayesian phylogenetic inference packages are not set up for this purpose, generally requiring one to recompute trees and evolutionary model parameters de novo when new data arrive. To accommodate increasing data flow in a Bayesian phylogenetic framework, we introduce a methodology to efficiently update the posterior distribution with newly available genetic data. Our procedure is implemented in the BEAST 1.10 software package, and relies on a distance-based measure to insert new taxa into the current estimate of the phylogeny and imputes plausible values for new model parameters to accommodate growing dimensionality. This augmentation creates informed starting values and re-uses optimally tuned transition kernels for posterior exploration of growing data sets, reducing the time necessary to converge to target posterior distributions. We apply our framework to data from the recent West African Ebola virus epidemic and demonstrate a considerable reduction in time required to obtain posterior estimates at different time points of the outbreak. Beyond epidemic monitoring, this framework easily finds other applications within the phylogenetics community, where changes in the data-in terms of alignment changes, sequence addition or removal-present common scenarios that can benefit from online inference.

The role of genetic sequencing and analysis in the polio eradication programme

Genetic sequencing of polioviruses detected through clinical and environmental surveillance is used to confirm detection, identify their likely origin, track geographic patterns of spread, and determine the appropriate vaccination response. The critical importance of genetic sequencing and analysis to the Global Polio Eradication Initiative has grown with the increasing incidence of vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) infections in Africa specifically (470 reported cases in 2019), and globally, alongside persistent transmission of serotype 1 wild-type poliovirus in Pakistan and Afghanistan (197 reported cases in 2019). Adapting what has been learned about the virus genetics and evolution to address these threats has been a major focus of recent work. Here, we review how phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods have been used to trace the spread of wild-type polioviruses and identify the likely origins of VDPVs. We highlight the analysis methods and sequencing technology currently used and the potential for new technologies to speed up poliovirus detection and the interpretation of genetic data. At a pivotal point in the eradication campaign with the threat of anti-vaccine sentiment and donor and public fatigue, innovation is critical to maintain drive and overcome the last remaining circulating virus.

Rapid in-country sequencing of whole virus genomes to inform rabies elimination programmes

Genomic surveillance is an important aspect of contemporary disease management but has yet to be used routinely to monitor endemic disease transmission and control in low- and middle-income countries. Rabies is an almost invariably fatal viral disease that causes a large public health and economic burden in Asia and Africa, despite being entirely vaccine preventable. With policy efforts now directed towards achieving a global goal of zero dog-mediated human rabies deaths by 2030, establishing effective surveillance tools is critical. Genomic data can provide important and unique insights into rabies spread and persistence that can direct control efforts. However, capacity for genomic research in low- and middle-income countries is held back by limited laboratory infrastructure, cost, supply chains and other logistical challenges. Here we present and validate an end-to-end workflow to facilitate affordable whole genome sequencing for rabies surveillance utilising nanopore technology. We used this workflow in Kenya, Tanzania and the Philippines to generate rabies virus genomes in two to three days, reducing costs to approximately £60 per genome. This is over half the cost of metagenomic sequencing previously conducted for Tanzanian samples, which involved exporting samples to the UK and a three- to six-month lag time. Ongoing optimization of workflows are likely to reduce these costs further. We also present tools to support routine whole genome sequencing and interpretation for genomic surveillance. Moreover, combined with training workshops to empower scientists in-country, we show that local sequencing capacity can be readily established and sustainable, negating the common misperception that cutting-edge genomic research can only be conducted in high resource laboratories. More generally, we argue that the capacity to harness genomic data is a game-changer for endemic disease surveillance and should precipitate a new wave of researchers from low- and middle-income countries.

Tracking echovirus eleven outbreaks in Guangdong, China: a metatranscriptomic, phylogenetic, and epidemiological study

In April 2019, a suspect cluster of enterovirus cases was reported in a neonatology department in Guangdong, China, resulting in five deaths. We aimed to investigate the pathogen profiles in fatal cases, the circulation and transmission pattern of the viruses by combining metatranscriptomic, phylogenetic, and epidemiological analyses. Metatranscriptomic sequencing was used to characterize the enteroviruses. Clinical and environmental surveillance in the local population was performed to understand the prevalence and genetic diversity of the viruses in the local population. The possible source(s), evolution, transmission, and recombination of the viruses were investigated by incorporating genomes from the current outbreak, from local retrospective surveillance, and from public databases. Metatranscriptomic analysis identified Echovirus 11 (E11) in three fatal cases. Seroprevalence of neutralization antibody to E11 was 35 to 44 per cent in 3–15 age groups of general population, and the viruses were associated with various clinical symptoms. From the viral phylogeny, nosocomial transmissions were identified and all E11 2019 outbreak strains were closely related with E11 strains circulating in local population 2017–19. Frequent recombination occurred among the 2019 Guangdong E11 outbreak strains and various genotypes in enterovirus B species. This study provides an example of combining advanced genetic technology and epidemiological surveillance in pathogen diagnosis, source(s), and transmission tracing during an infectious disease outbreak. The result highlights the hidden E11 circulation and the risk of viral transmission and infection in the young age population in China. Frequent recombination between Guangdong-like strains and other enterovirus genotypes also implies the prevalence of these emerging E11 strains.

Community perspectives on the benefits and risks of technologically enhanced communicable disease surveillance systems: a report on four community juries

Background

Outbreaks of infectious disease cause serious and costly health and social problems. Two new technologies – pathogen whole genome sequencing (WGS) and Big Data analytics – promise to improve our capacity to detect and control outbreaks earlier, saving lives and resources. However, routinely using these technologies to capture more detailed and specific personal information could be perceived as intrusive and a threat to privacy.

Method

Four community juries were convened in two demographically different Sydney municipalities and two regional cities in New South Wales, Australia (western Sydney, Wollongong, Tamworth, eastern Sydney) to elicit the views of well-informed community members on the acceptability and legitimacy of:

making pathogen WGS and linked administrative data available for public health research

using this information in concert with data linkage and machine learning to enhance communicable disease surveillance systems

Fifty participants of diverse backgrounds, mixed genders and ages were recruited by random-digit-dialling and topic-blinded social-media advertising. Each jury was presented with balanced factual evidence supporting different expert perspectives on the potential benefits and costs of technologically enhanced public health research and communicable disease surveillance and given the opportunity to question experts.

Results

Almost all jurors supported data linkage and WGS on routinely collected patient isolates for the purposes of public health research, provided standard de-identification practices were applied. However, allowing this information to be operationalised as a syndromic surveillance system was highly contentious with three juries voting in favour, and one against by narrow margins. For those in favour, support depended on several conditions related to system oversight and security being met. Those against were concerned about loss of privacy and did not trust Australian governments to run secure and effective systems.

Conclusions

Participants across all four events strongly supported the introduction of data linkage and pathogenomics to public health research under current research governance structures. Combining pathogen WGS with event-based data surveillance systems, however, is likely to be controversial because of a lack of public trust, even when the potential public health benefits are clear. Any suggestion of private sector involvement or commercialisation of WGS or surveillance data was unanimously rejected.

Inferring epidemiological links from deep sequencing data: a statistical learning approach for human, animal and plant diseases

Pathogen sequence data have been exploited to infer who infected whom, by using empirical and model-based approaches. Most of these approaches exploit one pathogen sequence per infected host (e.g. individual, household, field). However, modern sequencing techniques can reveal the polymorphic nature of within-host populations of pathogens. Thus, these techniques provide a subsample of the pathogen variants that were present in the host at the sampling time. Such data are expected to give more insight on epidemiological links than a single sequence per host. In general, a mechanistic viewpoint to transmission and micro-evolution has been followed to infer epidemiological links from these data. Here, we investigate an alternative approach grounded on statistical learning. The idea consists of learning the structure of epidemiological links with a pseudo-evolutionary model applied to training data obtained from contact tracing, for example, and using this initial stage to infer links for the whole dataset. Such an approach has the potential to be particularly valuable in the case of a risk of erroneous mechanistic assumptions, it is sufficiently parsimonious to allow the handling of big datasets in the future, and it is versatile enough to be applied to very different contexts from animal, human and plant epidemiology.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.

An emergent clade of SARS-CoV-2 linked to returned travellers from Iran

The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has rapidly spread outside China with major outbreaks occurring in Italy, South Korea, and Iran. Phylogenetic analyses of whole-genome sequencing data identified a distinct SARS-CoV-2 clade linked to travellers returning from Iran to Australia and New Zealand. This study highlights potential viral diversity driving the epidemic in Iran, and underscores the power of rapid genome sequencing and public data sharing to improve the detection and management of emerging infectious diseases.

Genomic and serologic characterization of enterovirus A71 brainstem encephalitis

Objective

In 2016, Catalonia experienced a pediatric brainstem encephalitis outbreak caused by enterovirus A71 (EV-A71). Conventional testing identified EV in the periphery but rarely in CSF. Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) and CSF pan-viral serology (VirScan) were deployed to enhance viral detection and characterization.

Methods

RNA was extracted from the CSF (n = 20), plasma (n = 9), stool (n = 15), and nasopharyngeal samples (n = 16) from 10 children with brainstem encephalitis and 10 children with meningitis or encephalitis. Pathogens were identified using mNGS. Available CSF from cases (n = 12) and pediatric other neurologic disease controls (n = 54) were analyzed with VirScan with a subset (n = 9 and n = 50) validated by ELISA.

Results

mNGS detected EV in all samples positive by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) (n = 25). In qRT-PCR-negative samples (n = 35), mNGS found virus in 23% (n = 8, 3 CSF samples). Overall, mNGS enhanced EV detection from 42% (25/60) to 57% (33/60) (p-value = 0.013). VirScan and ELISA increased detection to 92% (11/12) compared with 46% (4/12) for CSF mNGS and qRT-PCR (p-value = 0.023). Phylogenetic analysis confirmed the EV-A71 strain clustered with a neurovirulent German EV-A71. A single amino acid substitution (S241P) in the EVA71 VP1 protein was exclusive to the CNS in one subject.

Conclusion

mNGS with VirScan significantly increased the CNS detection of EVs relative to qRT-PCR, and the latter generated an antigenic profile of the acute EV-A71 immune response. Genomic analysis confirmed the close relation of the outbreak EV-A71 and neuroinvasive German EV-A71. A S241P substitution in VP1 was found exclusively in the CSF.

Incubation periods impact the spatial predictability of cholera and Ebola outbreaks in Sierra Leone

Forecasting the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases during an outbreak is an important component of epidemic response. However, it remains challenging both methodologically and with respect to data requirements, as disease spread is influenced by numerous factors, including the pathogen's underlying transmission parameters and epidemiological dynamics, social networks and population connectivity, and environmental conditions. Here, using data from Sierra Leone, we analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of recent cholera and Ebola outbreaks and compare and contrast the spread of these two pathogens in the same population. We develop a simulation model of the spatial spread of an epidemic in order to examine the impact of a pathogen's incubation period on the dynamics of spread and the predictability of outbreaks. We find that differences in the incubation period alone can determine the limits of predictability for diseases with different natural history, both empirically and in our simulations. Our results show that diseases with longer incubation periods, such as Ebola, where infected individuals can travel farther before becoming infectious, result in more long-distance sparking events and less predictable disease trajectories, as compared to the more predictable wave-like spread of diseases with shorter incubation periods, such as cholera.

Accounting for population structure reveals ambiguity in the Zaire Ebolavirus reservoir dynamics

Ebolaviruses pose a substantial threat to wildlife populations and to public health in Africa. Evolutionary analyses of virus genome sequences can contribute significantly to elucidate the origin of new outbreaks, which can help guide surveillance efforts. The reconstructed between-outbreak evolutionary history of Zaire ebolavirus so far has been highly consistent. By removing the confounding impact of population growth bursts during local outbreaks on the free mixing assumption that underlies coalescent-based demographic reconstructions, we find-contrary to what previous results indicated-that the circulation dynamics of Ebola virus in its animal reservoir are highly uncertain. Our findings also accentuate the need for a more fine-grained picture of the Ebola virus diversity in its reservoir to reliably infer the reservoir origin of outbreak lineages. In addition, the recent appearance of slower-evolving variants is in line with latency as a survival mechanism and with bats as the natural reservoir host.

Ebola virus disease

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a severe and frequently lethal disease caused by Ebola virus (EBOV). EVD outbreaks typically start from a single case of probable zoonotic transmission, followed by human-to-human transmission via direct contact or contact with infected bodily fluids or contaminated fomites. EVD has a high case-fatality rate; it is characterized by fever, gastrointestinal signs and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. Diagnosis requires a combination of case definition and laboratory tests, typically real-time reverse transcription PCR to detect viral RNA or rapid diagnostic tests based on immunoassays to detect EBOV antigens. Recent advances in medical countermeasure research resulted in the recent approval of an EBOV-targeted vaccine by European and US regulatory agencies. The results of a randomized clinical trial of investigational therapeutics for EVD demonstrated survival benefits from two monoclonal antibody products targeting the EBOV membrane glycoprotein. New observations emerging from the unprecedented 2013-2016 Western African EVD outbreak (the largest in history) and the ongoing EVD outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have substantially improved the understanding of EVD and viral persistence in survivors of EVD, resulting in new strategies toward prevention of infection and optimization of clinical management, acute illness outcomes and attendance to the clinical care needs of patients.

In Search of Covariates of HIV-1 Subtype B Spread in the United States-A Cautionary Tale of Large-Scale Bayesian Phylogeography

Infections with HIV-1 group M subtype B viruses account for the majority of the HIV epidemic in the Western world. Phylogeographic studies have placed the introduction of subtype B in the United States in New York around 1970, where it grew into a major source of spread. Currently, it is estimated that over one million people are living with HIV in the US and that most are infected with subtype B variants. Here, we aim to identify the drivers of HIV-1 subtype B dispersal in the United States by analyzing a collection of 23,588 pol sequences, collected for drug resistance testing from 45 states during 2004-2011. To this end, we introduce a workflow to reduce this large collection of data to more computationally-manageable sample sizes and apply the BEAST framework to test which covariates associate with the spread of HIV-1 across state borders. Our results show that we are able to consistently identify certain predictors of spread under reasonable run times across datasets of up to 10,000 sequences. However, the general lack of phylogenetic structure and the high uncertainty associated with HIV trees make it difficult to interpret the epidemiological relevance of the drivers of spread we are able to identify. While the workflow we present here could be applied to other virus datasets of a similar scale, the characteristic star-like shape of HIV-1 phylogenies poses a serious obstacle to reconstructing a detailed evolutionary and spatial history for HIV-1 subtype B in the US.