Data Resource Profile: Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care (HES APC)

Heart Failure Readmission in Patients With ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction and Active Cancer

Background

Although numerous studies have examined readmission with heart failure (HF) after acute myocardial infarction (AMI), limited data are available on HF readmission in cancer patients post-AMI.

Objectives

This study aimed to assess the rates and factors associated with HF readmission in cancer patients presenting with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

Methods

A nationally linked cohort of STEMI patients between January 2005 and March 2019 were obtained from the UK Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project registry and the UK national Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care registry. Multivariable Fine-Gray competing risk models were used to evaluate HF readmission at 30 days and 1 year.

Results

A total of 326,551 STEMI indexed admissions were included, with 7,090 (2.2%) patients having active cancer. The cancer group was less likely to be admitted under the care of a cardiologist (74.5% vs 81.9%) and had lower rates of invasive coronary angiography (62.2% vs 72.7%; P < 0.001) and percutaneous coronary intervention (58.4% vs. 69.5%). There was a significant prescription gap in the administration of post-AMI medications upon discharge such as an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker (49.5% vs 71.1%) and beta-blockers (58.4% vs 68.0%) in cancer patients. The cancer group had a higher rate of HF readmission at 30 days (3.2% vs 2.3%) and 1 year (9.4% vs 7.3%). However, after adjustment, cancer was not independently associated with HF readmission at 30 days (subdistribution HR: 1.05; 95% CI: 0.86-1.28) or 1 year (subdistribution HR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.92-1.16). The opportunity-based quality indicator was associated with higher rates of HF readmission independent of cancer diagnosis.

Conclusions

Cancer patients receive care that differs in important ways from patients without cancer. Greater implementation of evidence-based care may reduce HF readmissions, including in cancer patients.

Risk of Mortality Following Surgery in Patients With a Previous Cardiovascular Event

Importance

There is a lack of consensus regarding the interval of time-dependent postoperative mortality risk following acute coronary syndrome or stroke.

Objective

To determine the magnitude and duration of risk associated with the time interval between a preoperative cardiovascular event and 30-day postoperative mortality.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This is a longitudinal retrospective population-based cohort study. This study linked data from the Hospital Episode Statistics for National Health Service England, Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project and the Office for National Statistics mortality registry. All adults undergoing a National Health Service-funded noncardiac, nonneurologic surgery in England between April 1, 2007, and March 31, 2018, registered in Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care were included. Data were analyzed from July 2021 to July 2022.

Exposure

The time interval between a previous cardiovascular event (acute coronary syndrome or stroke) and surgery.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were postoperative mortality at 60, 90, and 365 days. Multivariable logistic regression models with restricted cubic splines were used to estimate adjusted odds ratios.

Results

There were 877 430 patients with and 20 582 717 without a prior cardiovascular event (overall mean [SD] age, 53.4 [19.4] years; 11 577 157 [54%] female). Among patients with a previous cardiovascular event, the time interval associated with increased risk of postoperative mortality was surgery within 11.3 months (95% CI, 10.8-11.7), with subgroup risks of 14.2 months before elective surgery (95% CI, 13.3-15.3) and 7.3 months for emergency surgery (95% CI, 6.8-7.8). Heterogeneity in these timings was noted across many surgical specialties. The time-dependent risk intervals following stroke and myocardial infarction were similar, but the absolute risk was greater following a stroke. Regarding surgical urgency, the risk of 30-day mortality was higher in those with a prior cardiovascular event for emergency surgery (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.34-1.37) and an elective procedure (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.78-1.89) than those without a prior cardiovascular event.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, surgery within 1 year of an acute coronary syndrome or stroke was associated with increased postoperative mortality before reaching a new baseline, particularly for elective surgery. This information may help clinicians and patients balance deferring the potential benefits of the surgery against the desire to avoid increased mortality from overly expeditious surgery after a recent cardiovascular event.

Health outcomes after myocardial infarction: A population study of 56 million people in England

BACKGROUND

The occurrence of a range of health outcomes following myocardial infarction (MI) is unknown. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the long-term risk of major health outcomes following MI and generate sociodemographic stratified risk charts in order to inform care recommendations in the post-MI period and underpin shared decision making.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This nationwide cohort study includes all individuals aged ≥18 years admitted to one of 229 National Health Service (NHS) Trusts in England between 1 January 2008 and 31 January 2017 (final follow-up 27 March 2017). We analysed 11 non-fatal health outcomes (subsequent MI and first hospitalisation for heart failure, atrial fibrillation, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, severe bleeding, renal failure, diabetes mellitus, dementia, depression, and cancer) and all-cause mortality. Of the 55,619,430 population of England, 34,116,257 individuals contributing to 145,912,852 hospitalisations were included (mean age 41.7 years (standard deviation [SD 26.1]); n = 14,747,198 (44.2%) male). There were 433,361 individuals with MI (mean age 67.4 years [SD 14.4)]; n = 283,742 (65.5%) male). Following MI, all-cause mortality was the most frequent event (adjusted cumulative incidence at 9 years 37.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] [37.6,37.9]), followed by heart failure (29.6%; 95% CI [29.4,29.7]), renal failure (27.2%; 95% CI [27.0,27.4]), atrial fibrillation (22.3%; 95% CI [22.2,22.5]), severe bleeding (19.0%; 95% CI [18.8,19.1]), diabetes (17.0%; 95% CI [16.9,17.1]), cancer (13.5%; 95% CI [13.3,13.6]), cerebrovascular disease (12.5%; 95% CI [12.4,12.7]), depression (8.9%; 95% CI [8.7,9.0]), dementia (7.8%; 95% CI [7.7,7.9]), subsequent MI (7.1%; 95% CI [7.0,7.2]), and peripheral arterial disease (6.5%; 95% CI [6.4,6.6]). Compared with a risk-set matched population of 2,001,310 individuals, first hospitalisation of all non-fatal health outcomes were increased after MI, except for dementia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.01; 95% CI [0.99,1.02];p = 0.468) and cancer (aHR 0.56; 95% CI [0.56,0.57];p < 0.001). The study includes data from secondary care only-as such diagnoses made outside of secondary care may have been missed leading to the potential underestimation of the total burden of disease following MI.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, up to a third of patients with MI developed heart failure or renal failure, 7% had another MI, and 38% died within 9 years (compared with 35% deaths among matched individuals). The incidence of all health outcomes, except dementia and cancer, was higher than expected during the normal life course without MI following adjustment for age, sex, year, and socioeconomic deprivation. Efforts targeted to prevent or limit the accrual of chronic, multisystem disease states following MI are needed and should be guided by the demographic-specific risk charts derived in this study.

Linking migration and hospital data in England: linkage process and evaluation of bias

Introduction

Difficulties ascertaining migrant status in national data sources such as hospital records have limited large-scale evaluation of migrant healthcare needs in many countries, including England. Linkage of immigration data for migrants and refugees, with National Health Service (NHS) hospital care data enables research into the relationship between migration and health for a large cohort of international migrants.

Objectives

We aimed to describe the linkage process and compare linkage rates between migrant sub-groups to evaluate for potential bias for data on non-EU migrants and resettled refugees linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) in England.

Methods

We used stepwise deterministic linkage to match records from migrants and refugees to a unique healthcare identifier indicating interaction with the NHS (linkage stage 1 to NHS Personal Demographic Services, PDS), and then to hospital records (linkage stage 2 to HES). We calculated linkage rates and compared linked and unlinked migrant characteristics for each linkage stage.

Results

Of the 1,799,307 unique migrant records, 1,134,007 (63%) linked to PDS and 451,689 (25%) linked to at least one hospital record between 01/01/2005 and 23/03/2020. Individuals on work, student, or working holiday visas were less likely to link to a hospital record than those on settlement and dependent visas and refugees. Migrants from the Middle East and North Africa and South Asia were four times more likely to link to at least one hospital record, compared to those from East Asia and the Pacific. Differences in age, sex, visa type, and region of origin between linked and unlinked samples were small to moderate.

Conclusion

This linked dataset represents a unique opportunity to explore healthcare use in migrants. However, lower linkage rates disproportionately affected individuals on shorter-term visas so future studies of these groups may be more biased as a result. Increasing the quality and completeness of identifiers recorded in administrative data could improve data linkage quality.

Cohort profile: the National Congenital Anomaly Registration Dataset in England

PURPOSE

The National Congenital Anomaly and Rare Disease Registration Service (NCARDRS), part of National Disease Registration Service in National Health Service England, quality assures, curates and analyses individual data on the pregnancies, fetuses, babies, children and adults with congenital anomalies and rare diseases across England. The congenital anomaly (CA) register provides a resource for patients and their families, clinicians, researchers and public health professionals in furthering the understanding of CAs.

PARTICIPANTS

NCARDRS registers CAs occurring in babies born alive and stillborn, fetal losses and terminations in England. NCARDRS collects data from secondary and tertiary healthcare providers, private providers and laboratories covering fetal medicine, maternity or paediatric services. Data describe the pregnancy, mother, baby and anomaly. Established in 2015, NCARDRS expanded CA registration coverage from 22% of total births in England in 2015 to national coverage, which was achieved in 2018. Prior to 2015, data collection was performed independently by regional registers in England; these data are also held by NCARDRS.

FINDINGS TO DATE

NCARDRS registers approximately 21 000 babies with CAs per year with surveillance covering around 600 000 total births, the largest birth coverage for a CA register globally. Data on prevalence, risk factors and survival for children with CAs are available. Data have been used in several peer-reviewed publications. Birth prevalence statistics, including public health indicators such as the association with maternal age, infant and perinatal mortality, are published annually. NCARDRS supports clinical audit for screening programmes and service evaluation.

FUTURE PLANS

NCARDRS provides a valuable resource for the understanding of the epidemiology, surveillance, prevention and treatment of CAs. Currently, approximately 21 000 new registrations of babies or fetuses with suspected or confirmed CAs are added each year. Identifiers are collected, enabling linkage to routinely collected healthcare and population statistics, further enhancing the value of the data.

Drug Utilization Studies in Pregnant Women for Newly Licensed Medicinal Products: A Contribution from IMI ConcePTION

Purpose

Studies focusing on safety outcomes typically require large populations to comprehensively characterise the patient groups exposed to the medicines under investigation. However, there is often less information for subpopulations, such as pregnant or breastfeeding women, particularly when new medicines are considered. It is important to understand what information can be obtained from drug utilization studies (DUS) involving pregnant women in the early years postmarketing to provide supportive information for safety studies. The aims of this literature review are to (1) identify and review DUS for new medicines in pregnancy and breastfeeding and (2) list and summarise key information items to be reported in a DUS for new medicines in pregnancy.

Methods

To identify postmarketing DUS of new prescription medicines or enantiomers in pregnancy, a systematic literature review was undertaken in PubMed and Embase between January 2015 and June 2022. In addition, the complete database of the ENCePP EU PAS Register was systematically searched to June 2022.

Results

We identified 11 published DUS on new medicines in pregnancy from the ENCePP EU PAS Register and none from other sources. No studies on breastfeeding were identified. The 11 identified publications reported the medicine's use for the first 3 to 5 years after marketing approval. No reports assessed utilization in the first 3 years of approval. It was usual to issue interim reports annually (7 studies). All studies concerned conditions managed in ambulatory care (primary care and outpatient facilities) and included some primary care prescribing. Most (n = 8) only had prescribing/dispensing data available at individual level for ambulatory care; outpatient prescribing was included in three of these studies Three studies held a limited amount of in-hospital prescribing data. A DUS can confirm at an early stage whether there are sufficient exposed pregnancies in available data sources to ensure a safety study is powered to detect a difference in the prevalence of adverse pregnancy or infant outcomes or if additional data from other databases are needed. A DUS may also help address methodological considerations such as selection of comparators. DUS can be performed embedded in a DUS in the general population, in a cohort of women of childbearing age, or in a cohort of pregnant women.

Conclusion

This review summarises key aspects of a DUS for new medicines in pregnancy. DUS for new medicines in pregnancy should be planned before marketing, scheduled for the first 3 to 5 years after release, with annual interim/progress reports, and reported in peer-reviewed journals. By offering detailed information on data sources, exposure timing, prevalence and location, coprescribing, comorbidities, coexposures, and demographics, a DUS will offer a firm foundation for safety studies and will help to contextualize spontaneous reporting of serious adverse events.

Examining the quality and population representativeness of linked survey and administrative data: guidance and illustration using linked 1958 National Child Development Study and Hospital Episode Statistics data

Introduction

Recent years have seen an increase in linkages between survey and administrative data. It is important to evaluate the quality of such data linkages to discern the likely reliability of ensuing research. Evaluation of linkage quality and bias can be conducted using different approaches, but many of these are not possible when there is a separation of processes for linkage and analysis to help preserve privacy, as is typically the case in the UK (and elsewhere).

Objectives

We aimed to describe a suite of generalisable methods to evaluate linkage quality and population representativeness of linked survey and administrative data which remain tractable when users of the linked data are not party to the linkage process itself. We emphasise issues particular to longitudinal survey data throughout.

Methods

Our proposed approaches cover several areas: i) Linkage rates, ii) Selection into response, linkage consent and successful linkage, iii) Linkage quality, and iv) Linked data population representativeness. We illustrate these methods using a recent linkage between the 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS; a cohort following an initial 17,415 people born in Great Britain in a single week of 1958) and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) databases (containing important information regarding admissions, accident and emergency attendances and outpatient appointments at NHS hospitals in England).

Results

Our illustrative analyses suggest that the linkage quality of the NCDS-HES data is high and that the linked sample maintains an excellent level of population representativeness with respect to the single dimension we assessed.

Conclusions

Through this work we hope to encourage providers and users of linked data resources to undertake and publish thorough evaluations. We further hope that providing illustrative analyses using linked NCDS-HES data will improve the quality and transparency of research using this particular linked data resource.

Risk of self-harm in patients with eating disorders: English population-based national record-linkage study, 1999-2021

OBJECTIVE

Anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) are eating disorders associated with high rates of self-harm (SH). This is the first national study in England to quantify this association in a hospital population.

METHOD

A retrospective cohort study using a linked national dataset of Hospital Episode Statistics for 1999-2021. The exposure cohort included individuals aged <35 years admitted to hospital with a diagnosis of AN or BN. The reference cohort included hospital controls. We calculated the rate ratio (RR) of SH in each cohort. The individuals in the two cohorts were matched on multiple socio-demographic indicators. The main outcome was a subsequent hospitalization or death record with an SH diagnosis.

RESULTS

We identified 15,004 females and 1411 males with AN, and 6055 females and 741 males with BN. The RR with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for a subsequent admission with intentional self-harm after admission with AN was 4.9 (95%CI 4.7-5.1) in females and 4.8 (95%CI 3.9-5.8) in males. For BN it was 9.0 (95%CI 8.4-9.6) in females and 9.8 (95%CI 7.7-12.2) in males. There were strong associations between AN and BN and other SH.

DISCUSSION

Women and men admitted to English hospitals with AN or BN have a very high risk of a subsequent admission with SH. For some SH behaviors, such as alcohol intoxication, the RR was >10-fold elevated. The magnitude of risk was higher for BN than for AN. Clinicians should be aware of the scale of risk increase. Providing those at risk with appropriate support is required.

PUBLIC SIGNIFICANCE

This study is the first national study in an English hospital population that confirms and quantifies the association between eating disorders and self-harm. We have found that both women and men admitted to hospital with anorexia nervosa or bulimia nervosa are at an increased risk of subsequent admission with self-harm. It is important that clinicians are aware of this increased risk to support those at highest risk of self-harm.

A matched cohort study evaluating the risks of infections in people with type 1 diabetes and their associations with glycated haemoglobin

AIMS

People with type 1 diabetes (T1D) have raised infection rates compared to those without, but how these risks vary by age, sex and ethnicity, or by glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), remain uncertain.

METHODS

33,829 patients with T1D in Clinical Practice Research Datalink on 01/01/2015 were age-sex-ethnicity matched to two non-diabetes patients. Infections were collated from primary care and linked hospitalisation records during 2015-2019, and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated versus non-diabetes. For 26,096 people with T1D, with ≥3 HbA1c measurements in 2012-2014, mean and coefficient of variation were estimated, and compared across percentiles.

RESULTS

People with T1D had increased risk for infections presenting in primary care (IRR = 1.81, 95%CI 1.77-1.85) and hospitalisations (IRR = 3.37, 3.21-3.53) compared to non-diabetes, slightly attenuated after further adjustment. Younger ages and non-White ethnicities had greater relative risks, potentially explained by higher HbA1c mean and variability amongst people with T1D within these sub-groups. Both mean HbA1c and greater variability were strongly associated with infection risks, but the greatest associations were at the highest mean levels (hospitalisations IRR = 4.09, 3.64-4.59) for >97 versus ≤53 mmol/mol.

CONCLUSIONS

Infections are a significant health burden in T1D. Improved glycaemic control may reduce infection risks, while prompter infection treatments may reduce hospital admissions.

How can current oncological datasets be adjusted to support the automated patient recruitment in clinical trials?

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to identify necessary adjustments required in existing oncological datasets to effectively support automated patient recruitment.

METHODS

We extracted and categorized the inclusion and exclusion criteria from 115 oncological trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov in 2022. These criteria were then compared with the content of the oBDS (Oncological Base Dataset version 3.0), Germany's legally mandated oncological data standard.

RESULTS

The analysis revealed that 42.9% of generalized inclusion and exclusion criteria are typically present as data fields in the oBDS. On average, 54.6% of all criteria per trial were covered. Notably, certain criteria such as comorbidities, pregnancy status, and laboratory values frequently appeared in trial protocols but were absent in the oBDS.

CONCLUSION

The omission of criteria, notably comorbidities, within the oBDS restricts its functionality to support trial recruitment. Addressing this limitation would enhance its overall effectiveness. Furthermore, the implications of these findings extend beyond Germany, suggesting potential relevance and applicability to oncological datasets globally.

Inequalities in treatment among patients with colon and rectal cancer: a multistate survival model using data from England national cancer registry 2012-2016

BACKGROUND

Individual and tumour factors only explain part of observed inequalities in colorectal cancer survival in England. This study aims to investigate inequalities in treatment in patients with colorectal cancer.

METHODS

All patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer in England between 2012 and 2016 were followed up from the date of diagnosis (state 1), to treatment (state 2), death (state 3) or censored at 1 year after the diagnosis. A multistate approach with flexible parametric model was used to investigate the effect of income deprivation on the probability of remaining alive and treated in colorectal cancer.

RESULTS

Compared to the least deprived quintile, the most deprived with stage I-IV colorectal cancer had a lower probability of being alive and treated at all the time during follow-up, and a higher probability of being untreated and of dying. The probability differences (most vs. least deprived) of being alive and treated at 6 months ranged between -2.4% (95% CI: -4.3, -1.1) and -7.4% (-9.4, -5.3) for colon; between -2.0% (-3.5, -0.4) and -6.2% (-8.9, -3.5) for rectal cancer.

CONCLUSION

Persistent inequalities in treatment were observed in patients with colorectal cancer at every stage, due to delayed access to treatment and premature death.

Outcomes of ST elevation myocardial infarction in patients with cancer: a nationwide study

AIMS

To assess processes of care and clinical outcomes in cancer patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) according to cancer type.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This is a national population-based study of patients admitted with STEMI in the UK between January 2005 and March 2019. Data were obtained from the National Heart Attack Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (MINAP) registry and the Hospital Episode Statistics registry. We identified 353 448 STEMI-indexed admissions between 2005 and 2019. Of those, 8581 (2.4%) had active cancer. Prostate cancer (29% of STEMI patients with cancer) was the most common cancer followed by haematologic malignancies (14%) and lung cancer (13%). Cancer patients were less likely to receive invasive coronary revascularization (60.0% vs. 71.6%, P < 0.001] and had higher in-hospital death [odd ratio (OR) 1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-1.54] and bleeding (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.03-1.46). Cancer patients had higher mortality at 30 days (HR 2.39, 95% CI 2.19-2.62) and 1 year (HR 3.73, 95% CI 3.58-3.89). Lung cancer was the cancer associated with the highest risk of death in the hospital (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.39-2.22) and at 1 year (OR 8.08, 95% CI 7.44-8.78). Colon cancer (OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.24-3.14) was the main cancer associated with major bleeding. All common cancer types were associated with higher mortality at 1 year. Cardiovascular death (62%) was the main cause of death in the first 30 days, while cancer (52%) was the main cause of death within 1 year.

CONCLUSION

STEMI patients with cancer have a higher risk of short- and long-term mortality, particularly lung cancer. Colon cancer is the main cancer associated with major bleeding. Cardiovascular disease was the main cause of death in the first month, whereas cancer was the main cause of death within 1 year.

Forecasting influenza hospital admissions within English sub-regions using hierarchical generalised additive models

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza places a substantial burden annually on healthcare services. Policies during the COVID-19 pandemic limited the transmission of seasonal influenza, making the timing and magnitude of a potential resurgence difficult to ascertain and its impact important to forecast.

METHODS

We have developed a hierarchical generalised additive model (GAM) for the short-term forecasting of hospital admissions with a positive test for the influenza virus sub-regionally across England. The model incorporates a multi-level structure of spatio-temporal splines, weekly cycles in admissions, and spatial correlation. Using multiple performance metrics including interval score, coverage, bias, and median absolute error, the predictive performance is evaluated for the 2022-2023 seasonal wave. Performance is measured against autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Prophet time series models.

RESULTS

Across the epidemic phases the hierarchical GAM shows improved performance, at all geographic scales relative to the ARIMA and Prophet models. Temporally, the hierarchical GAM has overall an improved performance at 7 and 14 day time horizons. The performance of the GAM is most sensitive to the flexibility of the smoothing function that measures the national epidemic trend.

CONCLUSIONS

This study introduces an approach to short-term forecasting of hospital admissions for the influenza virus using hierarchical, spatial, and temporal components. The methodology was designed for the real time forecasting of epidemics. This modelling framework was used across the 2022-2023 winter for healthcare operational planning by the UK Health Security Agency and the National Health Service in England.

Correctness and Completeness of Breast Cancer Diagnoses Recorded in UK CPRD Aurum and CPRD GOLD Databases: Comparison to Hospital Episode Statistics and Cancer Registry (Companion Paper 2)

Purpose

To evaluate the new Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum database, we estimated 'correctness' (ie accuracy, validity) and 'completeness' (ie presence, missingness) of malignant breast cancer diagnoses recorded in CPRD Aurum compared to external linked data sources: Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) Admitted Patient Care (APC), HES Outpatient (OP), and Cancer Registry (CR), and to the previously validated CPRD GOLD.

Methods

Linkage-eligible, female patients with incident malignant breast cancer diagnosis recorded in at least one study data source were selected. Correctness was the proportion of malignant breast cancer cases recorded in CPRD Aurum or GOLD who also had a diagnosis recorded in HES APC/OP (2004-2019) or CR (2004-2016). Completeness was estimated by identifying all malignant breast cancer diagnoses in HES APC/OP or CR and calculating the proportion with a concordant diagnosis in CPRD Aurum or GOLD.

Results

Compared to HES APC/OP, there were 85,659 and 31,452 eligible patients in CPRD Aurum and GOLD, respectively. Correctness estimates were high (CPRD Aurum 83.5%, GOLD 81.7%). Compared to CR, there were 70,190 and 29,597 eligible patients in CPRD Aurum and GOLD, respectively: correctness was 89.1% for CPRD Aurum and 88.2% for GOLD. Completeness estimates for CPRD Aurum and GOLD were high (>90%). Diagnoses were recorded in CPRD Aurum within -7 to 74 days of those in the linked sources. Reasons for discordant diagnostic coding included presence of treatment or other clinical codes only, diagnosis coded after end of follow-up, non-malignant breast cancer in linked data, and administrative codes in lieu of diagnostic codes.

Conclusion

These results indicate that correctness and completeness of malignant breast cancer diagnoses in CPRD Aurum were high and similar to CPRD GOLD. This provides confidence in use of CPRD Aurum for research purposes. Where complete case capture is important, researchers should consider linkage to HES APC or CR.

Cohort study to assess geographical variation in cholangiocarcinoma treatment in England

BACKGROUND

Outcomes for cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) are extremely poor owing to the complexities in diagnosing and managing a rare disease with heterogenous sub-types. Beyond curative surgery, which is only an option for a minority of patients diagnosed at an early stage, few systemic therapy options are currently recommended to relieve symptoms and prolong life. Stent insertion to manage disease complications requires highly specialised expertise. Evidence is lacking as to how CCA patients are managed in a real-world setting and whether there is any variation in treatments received by CCA patients.

AIM

To assess geographic variation in treatments received amongst CCA patients in England.

METHODS

Data used in this cohort study were drawn from the National Cancer Registration Dataset (NCRD), Hospital Episode Statistics and the Systemic Anti-Cancer Therapy Dataset. A cohort of 8853 CCA patients diagnosed between 2014-2017 in the National Health Service in England was identified from the NCRD. Potentially curative surgery for all patients and systemic therapy and stent insertion for 7751 individuals who did not receive surgery were identified as three end-points of interest. Linear probability models assessed variation in each of the three treatment modalities according to Cancer Alliance of residence at diagnosis, and for socio-demographic and clinical characteristics at diagnosis.

RESULTS

Of 8853 CCA patients, 1102 (12.4%) received potentially curative surgery. The mean [95% confidence interval (CI)] percentage-point difference from the population average ranged from -3.96 (-6.34 to -1.59)% to 3.77 (0.54 to 6.99)% across Cancer Alliances in England after adjustment for patient sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, showing statistically significant variation. Amongst 7751 who did not receive surgery, 1542 (19.9%) received systemic therapy, with mean [95%CI] percentage-point difference from the population average between -3.84 (-8.04 to 0.35)% to 9.28 (1.76 to 16.80)% across Cancer Alliances after adjustment, again showing the presence of statistically significant variation for some regions. Stent insertion was received by 2156 (27.8%), with mean [95%CI] percentage-point difference from the population average between -10.54 (-12.88 to -8.20)% to 13.64 (9.22 to 18.06)% across Cancer Alliances after adjustment, showing wide and statistically significant variation from the population average. Half of 8853 patients (n = 4468) received no treatment with either surgery, systemic therapy or stent insertion.

CONCLUSION

Substantial regional variation in treatments received by CCA patients was observed in England. Such variation could be due to differences in case-mix, clinical practice or access to specialist expertise.

Long-term healthcare utilization and costs of babies born after assisted reproductive technologies (ART): a record linkage study with 10-years' follow-up in England

STUDY QUESTION

Is the long-term health care utilization of children born after ART more costly to the healthcare system in England than children born to mothers with no fertility problems?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Children born after ART had significantly more general practitioner (GP) consultations and higher primary care costs up to 10 years after birth, and significantly higher hospital admission costs in the first year after birth, compared to children born to mothers with no fertility problems.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

There is evidence that children born after ART are at an increased risk of adverse birth outcomes and a small increased risk of rare adverse outcomes in childhood.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We conducted a longitudinal study of 368 088 mother and baby pairs in England using a bespoke linked dataset. Singleton babies born 1997-2018, and their mothers, who were registered at GP practices in England contributing data to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), were identified through the CPRD GOLD mother-baby dataset; this data was augmented with further linkage to the mothers' Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) Register data. Four groups of babies were identified through the mothers' records: a 'fertile' comparison group, an 'untreated sub-fertile' group, an 'ovulation induction' group, and an ART group. Babies were followed-up from birth to 28 February 2021, unless censored due to loss to follow-up (e.g. leaving GP practice, emigration) or death.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

The CPRD collects anonymized coded patient electronic health records from a network of GPs in the UK. We estimated primary care costs and hospital admission costs for babies in the four fertility groups using the CPRD GOLD data and the linked Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) Admitted Patient Care (APC) data. Linear regression was used to compare the care costs in the different groups. Inverse probability weights were generated and applied to adjust for potential bias caused by attrition due to loss to follow-up.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Children born to mothers with no fertility problems had significantly fewer consultations and lower primary care costs compared to the other groups throughout the 10-years' follow up. Regarding hospital costs, children born after ART had significantly higher hospital admission costs in the first year after birth compared to those born to mothers with no fertility problems (difference = £307 (95% CI: 153, 477)). The same pattern was observed in children born after untreated subfertility and ovulation induction.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

HFEA linkage uses non-donor data cycles only, and the introduction of consent for data use reduced the availability of HFEA records after 2009. The fertility groups were derived by augmenting HFEA data with evidence from primary care records; however, there remains some potential misclassification of exposure groups. The cost of neonatal critical care is not captured in the HES APC data, which may cause underestimation of the cost differences between the comparison group and the infertility groups.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

The findings can help anticipate the financial impact on the healthcare system associated with subfertility and ART, particularly as the demand for these treatments grows.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

C.C. and this work were funded by a UK Medical Research Council Career Development Award [MR/L019671/1] and a UK MRC Transition Support Award [MR/W029286/1]. X.H. is an Australia National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Emerging Leadership Fellow [grant number 2009253]. The authors declare no competing interest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Geographical Variation in Underlying Social Deprivation, Cardiovascular and Other Comorbidities in Patients with Potentially Curable Cancers in England: Results from a National Registry Dataset Analysis

AIMS

To describe the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), multiple comorbidities and social deprivation in patients with a potentially curable cancer in 20 English Cancer Alliances.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This National Registry Dataset Analysis used national cancer registry data and CVD databases to describe rates of CVD, comorbidities and social deprivation in patients diagnosed with a potentially curable malignancy (stage I-III breast cancer, stage I-III colon cancer, stage I-III rectal cancer, stage I-III prostate cancer, stage I-IIIA non-small cell lung cancer, stage I-IV diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, stage I-IV Hodgkin lymphoma) between 2013 and 2018. Outcome measures included observation of CVD prevalence, other comorbidities (evaluated by the Charlson Comorbidity Index) and deprivation (using the Index of Multiple Deprivation) according to tumour site and allocation to Cancer Alliance. Patients were allocated to CVD prevalence tertiles (minimum: <33.3rd percentile; middle: 33.3rd to 66.6th percentile; maximum: >66.6th percentile).

RESULTS

In total, 634 240 patients with a potentially curable malignancy were eligible. The total CVD prevalence for all cancer sites varied between 13.4% (CVD n = 2058; 95% confidence interval 12.8, 13.9) and 19.6% (CVD n = 7818; 95% confidence interval 19.2, 20.0) between Cancer Alliances. CVD prevalence showed regional variation both for male (16-26%) and female patients (8-16%) towards higher CVD prevalence in northern Cancer Alliances. Similar variation was observed for social deprivation, with the proportion of cancer patients being identified as most deprived varying between 3.3% and 32.2%, depending on Cancer Alliance. The variation between Cancer Alliance for total comorbidities was much smaller.

CONCLUSION

Social deprivation, CVD and other comorbidities in patients with a potentially curable malignancy in England show significant regional variations, which may partly contribute to differences observed in treatments and outcomes.

Quasi-experimental evaluation of a nationwide diabetes prevention programme

Diabetes is a leading cause of morbidity, mortality and cost of illness1,2. Health behaviours, particularly those related to nutrition and physical activity, play a key role in the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus3. Whereas behaviour change programmes (also known as lifestyle interventions or similar) have been found efficacious in controlled clinical trials4,5, there remains controversy about whether targeting health behaviours at the individual level is an effective preventive strategy for type 2 diabetes mellitus6 and doubt among clinicians that lifestyle advice and counselling provided in the routine health system can achieve improvements in health7-9. Here we show that being referred to the largest behaviour change programme for prediabetes globally (the English Diabetes Prevention Programme) is effective in improving key cardiovascular risk factors, including glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), excess body weight and serum lipid levels. We do so by using a regression discontinuity design10, which uses the eligibility threshold in HbA1c for referral to the behaviour change programme, in electronic health data from about one-fifth of all primary care practices in England. We confirm our main finding, the improvement of HbA1c, using two other quasi-experimental approaches: difference-in-differences analysis exploiting the phased roll-out of the programme and instrumental variable estimation exploiting regional variation in programme coverage. This analysis provides causal, rather than associational, evidence that lifestyle advice and counselling implemented at scale in a national health system can achieve important health improvements.

Readmission following hospital admission for community-acquired pneumonia in England

INTRODUCTION

Readmission rates following hospital admission with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) have increased in the UK over the past decade. The aim of this work was to describe the cohort of patients with emergency 30-day readmission following hospitalisation for CAP in England and explore the reasons for this.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of cases from the British Thoracic Society national adult CAP audit admitted to hospitals in England with CAP between 1 December 2018 and 31 January 2019 was performed. Cases were linked with corresponding patient level data from Hospital Episode statistics, providing data on the primary diagnosis treated during readmission and mortality. Analyses were performed describing the cohort of patients readmitted within 30 days, reasons for readmission and comparing those readmitted and primarily treated for pneumonia with other diagnoses.

RESULTS

Of 8136 cases who survived an index admission with CAP, 1304 (15.7%) were readmitted as an emergency within 30 days of discharge. The main problems treated on readmission were pneumonia in 516 (39.6%) patients and other respiratory disorders in 284 (21.8%). Readmission with pneumonia compared with all other diagnoses was associated with significant inpatient mortality (15.9% vs 6.5%; aOR 2.76, 95% CI 1.86 to 4.09, p<0.001). A diagnosis of hospital-acquired infection was more frequent in readmissions treated for pneumonia than other diagnoses (22.1% vs 3.9%, p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Pneumonia is the most common condition treated on readmission following hospitalisation with CAP and carries a higher mortality than both the index admission or readmission due to other diagnoses. Strategies to reduce readmissions due to pneumonia are required.

Estimating the cost and epidemiology of mild to severe chronic pain associated with osteoarthritis in England: a retrospective analysis of linked primary and secondary care data

OBJECTIVE

Osteoarthritis (OA) affects 10% of adults in the UK. Despite over one-third of people with OA experiencing chronic pain, few studies have examined the population-level impact of chronic pain associated with OA. We compared resource-use and epidemiological outcomes in patients with mild, moderate and severe chronic OA-associated pain and matched controls without known OA.

DESIGN

Retrospective, longitudinal, observational cohort study (July 2008 to June 2019).

SETTING

Electronic records extracted from Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD primary care linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES).

PARTICIPANTS

Patients (cases; n=23 016) aged ≥18 years with chronic OA-associated pain. Controls (n=23 016) without OA or chronic pain matched on age, sex, comorbidity burden, general practitioner practice and available HES data.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Total healthcare resource use (HCRU), direct healthcare costs in 0-12, 12-24 and 24-36 months postindex. Secondary outcomes included incidence and prevalence of chronic OA-associated pain and pharmacological management.

RESULTS

HCRU was consistently greater in cases versus controls for all resource categories during preindex and postindex periods. Across follow-up periods, resource use was greatest in patients with severe pain. In the first 12 months postindexing, mean total costs incurred by cases were four times higher versus matched controls (£256 vs £62); costs were approximately twice as high in cases vs controls for months 12-24 (£166 vs £86) and 24-36 (£150 vs £81; all p<0.0001). The incidence of new cases of chronic pain associated with OA was 2.64 per 1000 person-years; the prevalence was 1.4%.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the real-world cost of chronic pain associated with OA in cases versus matched controls. We included patients with mild, moderate and severe pain associated with OA, and showed HCRU in discrete 1-year time frames. The true economic burden of pain associated with OA is likely to be considerably higher when indirect costs are considered.

Impact of special educational needs provision on hospital utilisation, school attainment and absences for children in English primary schools stratified by gestational age at birth: A target trial emulation study protocol

Introduction

One third of children in English primary schools have additional learning support called special educational needs (SEN) provision, but children born preterm are more likely to have SEN than those born at term. We aim to assess the impact of SEN provision on health and education outcomes in children grouped by gestational age at birth.

Methods

We will analyse linked administrative data for England using the Education and Child Health Insights from Linked Data (ECHILD) database. A target trial emulation approach will be used to specify data extraction from ECHILD, comparisons of interest and our analysis plan. Our target population is all children enrolled in year one of state-funded primary school in England who were born in an NHS hospital in England between 2003 and 2008, grouped by gestational age at birth (extremely preterm (24-<28 weeks), very preterm (28-<32 weeks), moderately preterm (32-<34 weeks), late preterm (34-<37 weeks) and full term (37-<42 weeks). The intervention of interest will comprise categories of SEN provision (including none) during year one (age five/six). The outcomes of interest are rates of unplanned hospital utilisation, educational attainment, and absences by the end of primary school education (year six, age 11). We will triangulate results from complementary estimation methods including the naïve estimator, multivariable regression, g-formula, inverse probability weighting, inverse probability weighting with regression adjustment and instrumental variables, along with a variety for a variety of causal contrasts (average treatment effect, overall, and on the treated/not treated).

Ethics and dissemination

We have existing research ethics approval for analyses of the ECHILD database described in this protocol. We will disseminate our findings to diverse audiences (academics, relevant government departments, service users and providers) through seminars, peer-reviewed publications, short briefing reports and infographics for non-academics (published on the study website).

Evaluating police drug diversion in England: protocol for a realist evaluation

There is increasing international interest in the use of police drug diversion schemes that offer people suspected of minor drug-related offences an educative or therapeutic intervention as an alternative to criminalisation. While there have been randomised trials of some such schemes for their effects on reducing offending, with generally positive results, less is known about the health outcomes, and what works, for whom, in what circumstances and why. This protocol reports on a realist evaluation of police drug diversion in England that has been coproduced by a team of academic, policing, health, and service user partners. The overall study design combines a qualitative assessment of the implementation, contexts, mechanisms, moderators and outcomes of schemes in Durham, Thames Valley and the West Midlands with a quantitative, quasi-experimental analysis of administrative data on the effects of being exposed to the presence of police drug diversion on reoffending and health outcomes. These will be supplemented with analysis of the cost-consequences of the evaluated schemes, an analysis of the equity of their implementation and effects, and a realist synthesis of the various findings from these different methods.

Using linked administrative data to aid the handling of non-response and restore sample representativeness in cohort studies: the 1958 national child development study and hospital episode statistics data

BACKGROUND

There is growing interest in whether linked administrative data have the potential to aid analyses subject to missing data in cohort studies.

METHODS

Using linked 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS; British cohort born in 1958, n = 18,558) and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data, we applied a LASSO variable selection approach to identify HES variables which are predictive of non-response at the age 55 sweep of NCDS. We then included these variables as auxiliary variables in multiple imputation (MI) analyses to explore the extent to which they helped restore sample representativeness of the respondents together with the imputed non-respondents in terms of early life variables (father's social class at birth, cognitive ability at age 7) and relative to external population benchmarks (educational qualifications and marital status at age 55).

RESULTS

We identified 10 HES variables that were predictive of non-response at age 55 in NCDS. For example, cohort members who had been treated for adult mental illness had more than 70% greater odds of bring non-respondents (odds ratio 1.73; 95% confidence interval 1.17, 2.51). Inclusion of these HES variables in MI analyses only helped to restore sample representativeness to a limited extent. Furthermore, there was essentially no additional gain in sample representativeness relative to analyses using only previously identified survey predictors of non-response (i.e. NCDS rather than HES variables).

CONCLUSIONS

Inclusion of HES variables only aided missing data handling in NCDS to a limited extent. However, these findings may not generalise to other analyses, cohorts or linked administrative datasets. This work provides a demonstration of the use of linked administrative data for the handling of missing cohort data which we hope will act as template for others.

Chronic Low Back Pain with and without Concomitant Osteoarthritis: A Retrospective, Longitudinal Cohort Study of Patients in England

Objective

Despite the high prevalence of chronic low back pain (CLBP) and osteoarthritis (OA), few estimates of the economic cost of these conditions in England have been published. The aim of the present analysis was to characterise the economic burden of moderate-to-severe pain associated with CLBP + OA and CLBP alone compared with general population-matched controls without CLBP or OA. The primary objective was to describe the total healthcare resource use (HCRU) and direct healthcare costs associated with the target patient populations. Secondary objectives were to describe treatment patterns and surgical procedures.

Methods

This was a retrospective, observational cohort study of patients receiving healthcare indicative of moderate-to-severe chronic pain associated with CLBP, with or without OA. We used linked longitudinal data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES). Patients (cases) were matched 1 : 1 with controls on age, sex, comorbidity burden, GP practice, and HES data availability.

Results

The CLBP-alone cohort comprised 13 554 cases with CLBP and 13 554 matched controls; the CLBP + OA cohort comprised 7803 cases with both OA and CLBP and 7803 matched controls. Across all follow-up periods, patients with CLBP alone and those with CLBP + OA had significantly more GP consultations, outpatient attendances, emergency department visits, and inpatient stays than controls (all p < 0.0001). By 36 months after indexing, the mean (SD) per-patient total direct healthcare cost in the CLBP-alone cohort was £5081 (£5905) for cases and £1809 (£4451) for controls (p < 0.0001); in the CLBP + OA cohort, the mean (SD) per-patient total direct healthcare cost was £8819 (£7143) for cases and £2428 (£4280) for controls (p < 0.0001).

Conclusion

Moderate-to-severe chronic pain associated with CLBP-with or without OA-has a substantial impact on patients and healthcare providers, leading to higher HCRU and costs versus controls among people with CLBP alone or together with OA.

Evaluation of variation in special educational needs provision and its impact on health and education using administrative records for England: umbrella protocol for a mixed-methods research programme

INTRODUCTION

One-third of children in England have special educational needs (SEN) provision recorded during their school career. The proportion of children with SEN provision varies between schools and demographic groups, which may reflect variation in need, inequitable provision and/or systemic factors. There is scant evidence on whether SEN provision improves health and education outcomes.

METHODS

The Health Outcomes of young People in Education (HOPE) research programme uses administrative data from the Education and Child Health Insights from Linked Data-ECHILD-which contains data from all state schools, and contacts with National Health Service hospitals in England, to explore variation in SEN provision and its impact on health and education outcomes. This umbrella protocol sets out analyses across four work packages (WP). WP1 defined a range of 'health phenotypes', that is health conditions expected to need SEN provision in primary school. Next, we describe health and education outcomes (WP1) and individual, school-level and area-level factors affecting variation in SEN provision across different phenotypes (WP2). WP3 assesses the impact of SEN provision on health and education outcomes for specific health phenotypes using a range of causal inference methods to account for confounding factors and possible selection bias. In WP4 we review local policies and synthesise findings from surveys, interviews and focus groups of service users and providers to understand factors associated with variation in and experiences of identification, assessment and provision for SEN. Triangulation of findings on outcomes, variation and impact of SEN provision for different health phenotypes in ECHILD, with experiences of SEN provision will inform interpretation of findings for policy, practice and families and methods for future evaluation.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Research ethics committees have approved the use of the ECHILD database and, separately, the survey, interviews and focus groups of young people, parents and service providers. These stakeholders will contribute to the design, interpretation and communication of findings.

Temporal trends and patterns in initial opioid prescriptions after hospital discharge following colectomy in England over 10 years

BACKGROUND

While opioid analgesics are often necessary for the management of acute postoperative pain, appropriate prescribing practices are crucial to avoid harm. The aim was to investigate the changes in the proportion of people receiving initial opioid prescriptions after hospital discharge following colectomy, and describe trends and patterns in prescription characteristics.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study. Patients undergoing colectomy in England between 2010 and 2019 were included using electronic health record data from linked primary (Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum) and secondary (Hospital Episode Statistics) care. The proportion of patients having an initial opioid prescription issued in primary care within 90 days of hospital discharge was calculated. Prescription characteristics of opioid type and formulation were described.

RESULTS

Of 95 155 individuals undergoing colectomy, 15 503 (16.3%) received opioid prescriptions. There was a downward trend in the proportion of patients with no prior opioid exposure (opioid naive) who had a postdischarge opioid prescription (P <0.001), from 11.4% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2019 (-41.3%, P <0.001), whereas the proportions remained stable for those prescribed opioids prior to surgery, from 57.5% in 2010 to 58.3% in 2019 (P = 0.637). Codeine represented 44.5% of all prescriptions and prescribing increased by 14.5% between 2010 and 2019. Prescriptions for morphine and oxycodone rose significantly by 76.6% and 31.0% respectively, while tramadol prescribing dropped by 48.0%. The most commonly prescribed opioid formulations were immediate release (83.9%), followed by modified release (5.8%) and transdermal (3.2%). There was a modest decrease in the prescribing of immediate-release formulations from 86.0% in 2010 to 82.0% in 2019 (P <0.001).

CONCLUSION

Over the 10 years studied, there was a changing pattern of opioid prescribing following colectomy, with a decrease in the proportion of opioid-naive patients prescribed postdischarge opioids.

Novel methods to define invasive procedures at the end of life were developed to improve quality of end of life care research: a population-based cohort study in colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Understanding the use of invasive procedures (IPs) at the end of life (EoL) is important to avoid undertreatment and overtreatment, but epidemiologic analysis is hampered by limited methods to define treatment intent and EoL phase. This study applied novel methods to report IPs at the EoL using a colorectal cancer case study.

METHODS

An English population-based cohort of adult patients diagnosed between 2013 and 2015 was used with follow-up to 2018. Procedure intent (curative, noncurative, diagnostic) by cancer site and stage at diagnosis was classified by two surgeons independently. Joinpoint regression modeled weekly rates of IPs for 36 subcohorts of patients with incremental survival of 0-36 months. EoL phase was defined by a significant IP rate change before death. Zero-inflated Poisson regression explored associations between IP rates and clinical/sociodemographic variables.

RESULTS

Of 87,731 patients included, 41,972 (48%) died. Nine thousand four hundred ninety two procedures were classified by intent (inter-rater agreement 99.8%). Patients received 502,895 IPs (1.39 and 3.36 per person year for survivors and decedents). Joinpoint regression identified significant increases in IPs 4 weeks before death in those living 3-6 months and 8 weeks before death in those living 7-36 months from diagnosis. Seven thousand nine hundred eight (18.8%) patients underwent IPs at the EoL, with stoma formation the most common major procedure. Younger age, early-stage disease, men, lower comorbidity, those receiving chemotherapy, and living longer from diagnosis were associated with IPs.

CONCLUSION

Methods to identify and classify IPs at the EoL were developed and tested within a colorectal cancer population. This approach can be now extended and validated to identify potential undertreatment and overtreatment.

Estimating the prevalence of diagnosed Alzheimer disease in England across deprivation groups using electronic health records: a clinical practice research datalink study

OBJECTIVE

Estimate the prevalence of diagnosed Alzheimer's disease (AD) and early Alzheimer's disease (eAD) overall and stratified by age, sex and deprivation and combinations thereof in England on 1 January 2020.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional.

SETTING

Primary care electronic health record data, the Clinical Practice Research database linked with secondary care data, Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and patient-level deprivation data, Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD).

OUTCOME MEASURES

The prevalence per 100 000 of the population and corresponding 95% CIs for both diagnosed AD and eAD overall and stratified by covariates. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the sensitivity of the population definition and look-back period.

RESULTS

There were 448 797 patients identified in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink that satisfied the study inclusion criteria and were eligible for HES and IMD linkage. For the main analysis of AD and eAD, 379 763 patients are eligible for inclusion in the denominator. This resulted in an estimated prevalence of diagnosed AD of 378.39 (95% CI, 359.36 to 398.44) per 100 000 and eAD of 292.81 (95% CI, 276.12 to 310.52) per 100 000. Prevalence estimates across main and sensitivity analyses for the entire AD study population were found to vary widely with estimates ranging from 137.48 (95% CI, 127.05 to 148.76) to 796.55 (95% CI, 768.77 to 825.33). There was significant variation in prevalence of diagnosed eAD when assessing the sensitivity with the look-back periods, as low as 120.54 (95% CI, 110.80 to 131.14) per 100 000, and as high as 519.01 (95% CI, 496.64 to 542.37) per 100 000.

CONCLUSIONS

The study found relatively consistent patterns of prevalence across both AD and eAD populations. Generally, the prevalence of diagnosed AD increased with age and increased with deprivation for each age category. Women had a higher prevalence than men. More granular levels of stratification reduced patient numbers and increased the uncertainty of point prevalence estimates. Despite this, the study found a relationship between deprivation and prevalence of AD.

Early special educational needs provision and its impact on unplanned hospital utilisation and school absences in children with isolated cleft lip and/or palate: a demonstration target trial emulation study protocol using ECHILD

Background

Special educational needs (SEN) provision is designed to help pupils with additional educational, behavioural or health needs; for example, pupils with cleft lip and/or palate may be offered SEN provision to improve their speech and language skills. Our aim is to contribute to the literature and assess the impact of SEN provision on health and educational outcomes for a well-defined population.

Methods

We will use the ECHILD database, which links educational and health records across England. Our target population consists of children identified within ECHILD to have a specific congenital anomaly: isolated cleft lip and/or palate. We will apply a trial emulation framework to reduce biases in design and analysis of observational data to investigate the causal impact of SEN provision (including none) by the start of compulsory education (Year One - age five year on entry) on the number of unplanned hospital utilisation and school absences by the end of primary education (Year Six - age ten/eleven). We will use propensity score-based estimators (inverse probability weighting (IPW) and IPW regression adjustment IPW) to compare categories of SEN provision in terms of these outcomes and to triangulate results obtained using complementary estimation methods (Naïve estimator, multivariable regression, parametric g-formula, and if possible, instrumental variables), targeting a variety of causal contrasts (average treatment effect/in the treated/in the not treated) of SEN provision.

Conclusions

This study will evaluate the impact of reasonable adjustments at the start of compulsory education on health and educational outcomes in the isolated cleft lip and palate population by triangulating complementary methods under a target-trial framework.

Obstetric and neonatal outcomes in pregnant women with and without a history of specialist mental health care: a national population-based cohort study using linked routinely collected data in England

BACKGROUND

Pregnant women with pre-existing mental illnesses have increased risks of adverse obstetric and neonatal outcomes compared with pregnant women without pre-existing mental illnesses. We aimed to estimate these differences in risks according to the highest level of pre-pregnancy specialist mental health care, defined as psychiatric hospital admission, crisis resolution team (CRT) contact, or specialist community care only, and the timing of the most recent care episode in the 7 years before pregnancy.

METHODS

Hospital and birth registration records of women with singleton births between April 1, 2014, and March 31, 2018 in England were linked to records of babies and records from specialist mental health services provided by the England National Health Service, a publicly funded health-care system. We compared the risks of adverse pregnancy outcomes, including fetal and neonatal death, preterm birth, and babies being born small for gestational age (SGA; birthweight <10th percentile), and composite indicators for neonatal adverse outcomes and maternal morbidity, between women with and without a history of contact with specialist mental health care. We calculated odds ratios adjusted for maternal characteristics (aORs), using logistic regression.

FINDINGS

Of 2 081 043 included women (mean age 30·0 years; range 18-55 years; 77·7% White, 11·4% South Asian, 4·7% Black, and 6·2% mixed or other ethnic background), 151 770 (7·3%) had at least one pre-pregnancy specialist mental health-care contact. 7247 (0·3%) had been admitted to a psychiatric hospital, 29 770 (1·4%) had CRT contact, and 114 753 (5·5%) had community care only. With a pre-pregnancy mental health-care contact, risk of stillbirth or neonatal death within 7 days of birth was not significantly increased (0·45-0·49%; aOR 1·11, 95% CI 0·99-1·24): risk of preterm birth (<37 weeks) increased (6·5-9·8%; aOR 1·53, 1·35-1·73), as did risk of SGA (6·2- 7·5%; aOR 1·34, 1·30-1·37) and neonatal adverse outcomes (6·4-8·4%; aOR 1·37, 1·21-1·55). With a pre-pregnancy mental health-care contact, risk of maternal morbidity increased slightly from 0·9% to 1·0% (aOR 1·18, 1·12-1·25). Overall, risks were highest for women who had a psychiatric hospital admission any time or a mental health-care contact in the year before pregnancy.

INTERPRETATION

Information about the level and timing of pre-pregnancy specialist mental health-care contacts helps to identify women at increased risk of adverse obstetric and neonatal outcomes. These women are most likely to benefit from dedicated community perinatal mental health teams working closely with maternity services to provide integrated care.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research.

Opicapone versus entacapone: Head-to-head retrospective data-based comparison of healthcare resource utilization in people with Parkinson's disease new to catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) inhibitor treatment

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Motor fluctuations are a significant driver of healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) in people with Parkinson's disease (pwPD). A common management strategy is to include catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) inhibition with either opicapone or entacapone in the levodopa regimen. However, to date, there has been a lack of head-to-head data comparing the two COMT inhibitors in real-world settings. The aim of this study was to evaluate changes in HCRU and effect on sleep medications when opicapone was initiated as first COMT inhibitor versus entacapone.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we assessed HCRU outcomes in pwPD naïve to COMT inhibition via UK electronic healthcare records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episodes Statistics databases, June 2016 to December 2019). HCRU outcomes were assessed before (baseline) and after COMT inhibitor prescription at 0-6 months, 7-12 months and 13-18 months. Opicapone-treated pwPD were algorithm-matched (1:4) to entacapone-treated pwPD.

RESULTS

By 6 months, treatment with opicapone resulted in 18.5% fewer neurology outpatient visits compared to entacapone treatment; this effect was maintained until the last follow-up (18 months). In the opicapone group, the mean levodopa equivalent daily dose decreased over the first year and then stabilized, whereas the entacapone-treated group showed an initial decrease in the first 6 months followed by a dose increase between 7 and 18 months. Neither COMT inhibitor had a significant impact on sleep medication use.

CONCLUSIONS

This head-to-head study is the first to demonstrate, using 'real-world' data, that initiating COMT inhibition with opicapone is likely to decrease the need for post-treatment HCRU versus initiation of COMT inhibition with entacapone.

What is the impact of hospital and surgeon volumes on outcomes in rectal cancer surgery?

AIM

Evidence for a positive volume-outcome relationship for rectal cancer surgery is unclear. This study aims to evaluate the volume-outcome relationship for rectal cancer surgery at hospital and surgeon level in the English National Health Service (NHS).

METHOD

All patients undergoing a rectal cancer resection in the English NHS between 2015 and 2019 were included. Multilevel multivariable logistic regression was used to model relationships between outcomes and mean annual hospital and surgeon volumes (using a linear plus a quadratic term for volume) with adjustment for patient characteristics.

RESULTS

A total of 13 858 patients treated in 166 hospitals were included. Six hospitals (3.6%) performed fewer than 10 rectal cancer resections per year, and 381 surgeons (45.0%) performed fewer than five such resections per year. Patients treated by high-volume surgeons had a reduced length of stay (p = 0.016). No statistically significant volume-outcome relationships were demonstrated for 90-day mortality, 30-day unplanned readmission, unplanned return to theatre, stoma at 18 months following anterior resection, positive circumferential resection margin and 2-year all-cause mortality at either hospital or surgeon level (p values > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Almost half of colorectal surgeons in England do not meet national guidelines for rectal cancer surgeons to perform a minimum of five major resections annually. However, our results suggest that centralizing rectal cancer surgery with the main focus of increasing operative volume may have limited impact on NHS surgical outcomes. Therefore, quality improvement initiatives should address a wider range of evidence-based process measures, across the multidisciplinary care pathway, to enhance outcomes for patients with rectal cancer.

Comparison of characteristics of patients with lung cancer in U.K. primary care databases: Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum and GOLD

INTRODUCTION

In recent years, the number of general practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) database GOLD is decreasing. Therefore, for research questions addressing for instance novel treatments requiring up-to-date data, sample size will become an important consideration in study feasibility. In recent years, CPRD Aurum, containing information of practices that use EMIS software, has become an additional data source that is being used for CPRD studies. In order to establish whether Aurum is suited to act as data source for future studies in the field of lung cancer research, we aimed to compare characteristics between patients with lung cancer in Aurum and GOLD.

METHODS

A retrospective study was performed comparing characteristics and overall survival (OS) of patients with lung cancer in Aurum and GOLD. To further evaluate similarity, hypothetical eligibility of these patients in Aurum and GOLD was compared for 11 randomized clinical trials (RCTs).

RESULTS

Baseline characteristics registered in Aurum and GOLD were largely similar, with some clinically irrelevant differences for previous malignancies, deviant laboratory values and drug use. Median OS was 9.8 and 9.0 months for patients in Aurum and GOLD, respectively. Potential RCT eligibility varied between 49.4% and 79.5% and 49.1% and 78.1% for patients in Aurum and GOLD, respectively. Mortality rates and the comparison of the obtained HRs per hypothetical eligibility cohort per RCT were similar in Aurum and GOLD.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that data of patients with lung cancer in Aurum and GOLD are largely comparable, suggesting that Aurum is suitable for future epidemiological lung cancer research.

Interrupted time series evaluation of the impact of a dementia wellbeing service on avoidable hospital admissions for people with dementia in Bristol, England

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether a dementia wellbeing service (DWS) signposting people with dementia to community services decreases the rate of avoidable hospital admissions, in-hospital mortality, complexity of admissions (number of comorbidities) or length of stay.

METHODS

Interrupted time series analysis to estimate the effects of the DWS on hospital outcomes. We included all unplanned admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions ('avoidable hospital admissions') with a dementia diagnosis recorded in the Hospital Episode Statistics. The intervention region was compared with a demographically similar control region in the 2 years before and 3 years after the implementation of the new service (October 2013 to September 2018).

RESULTS

There was no strong evidence that admission rates reduced and only weak evidence that the trend in average length of stay reduced slowly over time. In-hospital mortality decreased immediately after the introduction of the dementia wellbeing service compared to comparator areas (x0.64, 95% CI 0.42, 0.97, p = 0.037) but attenuated over the following years. The rate of increase in comorbidities also appeared to slow after the service began; they were similar to comparator areas by September 2018.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no major impact of the DWS on avoidable hospital admissions, although there was weak evidence for slightly shorter length of stay and reduced complexity of hospital admissions. These findings may or may not reflect a true benefit of the service and require further investigation. The DWS was established to improve quality of dementia care; reducing hospital admissions was never its sole purpose. More targeted interventions may be required to reduce hospital admissions for people with dementia.

Assessing national patterns and outcomes of pituitary surgery: is hospital administrative data good enough?

PURPOSE

Patterns of surgical care, outcomes, and quality of care can be assessed using hospital administrative databases but this requires accurate and complete data. The aim of this study was to explore whether the quality of hospital administrative data was sufficient to assess pituitary surgery practice in England.

METHODS

The study analysed Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data from April 2013 to March 2018 on all adult patients undergoing pituitary surgery in England. A series of data quality indicators examined the attribution of cases to consultants, the coding of sellar and parasellar lesions, associated endocrine and visual disorders, and surgical procedures. Differences in data quality over time and between neurosurgical units were examined.

RESULTS

A total of 5613 records describing pituitary procedures were identified. Overall, 97.3% had a diagnostic code for the tumour or lesion treated, with 29.7% (n = 1669) and 17.8% (n = 1000) describing endocrine and visual disorders, respectively. There was a significant reduction from the first to the fifth year in records that only contained a pituitary tumour code (63.7%-47.0%, p < .001). The use of procedure codes that attracted the highest tariff increased over time (66.4%-82.4%, p < .001). Patterns of coding varied widely between the 24 neurosurgical units.

CONCLUSION

The quality of HES data on pituitary surgery has improved over time but there is wide variation in the quality of data between neurosurgical units. Research studies and quality improvement programmes using these data need to check it is of sufficient quality to not invalidate their results.

Completeness of endocrine therapy information in the Primary Care Prescription Database (PCPD) and secondary care treatment datasets: A national population-based cohort study using routine healthcare data

BACKGROUND

Endocrine therapy (ET) is a widely used treatment for breast cancer. In the UK, use is typically initiated in secondary care, with subsequent treatment in primary care. Evaluating use of ET depends on data sources containing accurate and complete information. This study aimed to evaluate the completeness and consistency of ET recorded in primary and secondary care data (SCD) and determine the value of combining data sources in describing use of ET.

METHODS

This cohort study included women (50 + years) diagnosed with hormone receptor-positive invasive breast cancer in England, April-2015 to December-2019. Concordance of ET recorded in SCD and the Primary Care Prescription Database (PCPD) was evaluated. Factors associated with recording of ET in each setting were assessed using statistical models.

RESULTS

Overall 110,529 women were included. 94% had ET recorded in either SCD or PCPD. ET captured in SCD varied from 3% (in Systemic Anti-Cancer Therapy data) to 52% (in the Cancer Outcomes and Services Dataset; COSD). By contrast, 93% of patients had an ET prescription in PCPD. Among patients with ET recorded, this was not captured in COSD for 45%. Capture in COSD was lowest for younger women, those with no comorbidity/frailty, with lower stage or HER2-positive disease, or with other treatments recorded. Overall concordance between COSD and PCPD was 57%, but varied substantially across NHS trusts (lowest decile≤28%; highest decile≥86%). Among women with ET recorded in both settings, the earliest record was in COSD for 97%; 59% of initial ET prescriptions recorded in COSD were not captured in PCPD. Combining PCPD and COSD data enabled estimation of ET duration.

CONCLUSIONS

PCPD is vital for understanding the use of ET within this population. Completeness of SCD could be improved by ensuring information on first ET prescription is recorded. PCPD (linked to SCD) is a valuable resource for examining patterns of care for patients with cancer, including treatment duration and adherence.

Association between ethnic background and COVID-19 morbidity, mortality and vaccination in England: a multistate cohort analysis using the UK Biobank

OBJECTIVES

Despite growing evidence suggesting increased COVID-19 mortality among people from ethnic minorities, little is known about milder forms of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We sought to explore the association between ethnic background and the probability of testing, testing positive, hospitalisation, COVID-19 mortality and vaccination uptake.

DESIGN

A multistate cohort analysis. Participants were followed between 8 April 2020 and 30 September 2021.

SETTING

The UK Biobank, which stores medical data on around half a million people who were recruited between 2006 and 2010.

PARTICIPANTS

405 541 subjects were eligible for analysis, limited to UK Biobank participants living in England. 23 891 (6%) of participants were non-white.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The associations between ethnic background and testing, testing positive, hospitalisation and COVID-19 mortality were studied using multistate survival analyses. The association with single and double-dose vaccination was also modelled. Multistate models adjusted for age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation were fitted to estimate adjusted HRs (aHR) for each of the multistate transitions.

RESULTS

18 172 (4.5%) individuals tested positive, 3285 (0.8%) tested negative and then positive, 1490 (6.9% of those tested positive) were hospitalised, and 129 (0.6%) tested positive at the moment of hospital admission (ie, direct hospitalisation). Finally, 662 (17.4%) died after admission. Compared with white participants, Asian participants had an increased risk of negative to positive transition (aHR 1.24 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.52)), testing positive (95% CI 1.44 (1.33 to 1.55)) and direct hospitalisation (1.61 (95% CI 1.28 to 2.03)). Black participants had an increased risk of hospitalisation following a positive test (1.71 (95% CI 1.29 to 2.27)) and direct hospitalisation (1.90 (95% CI 1.51 to 2.39)). Although not the case for Asians (aHR 1.00 (95% CI 0.98 to 1.02)), black participants had a reduced vaccination probability (0.63 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.65)). In contrast, Chinese participants had a reduced risk of testing negative (aHR 0.64 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.73)), of testing positive (0.40 (95% CI 0.28 to 0.57)) and of vaccination (0.78 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.83)).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified inequities in testing, vaccination and COVID-19 outcomes according to ethnicity in England. Compared with whites, Asian participants had increased risks of infection and admission, and black participants had almost double hospitalisation risk, and a 40% lower vaccine uptake.

Treatment-related acute toxicity with adjuvant systemic treatment among patients with HER2-positive early invasive breast cancer: a national population-based cohort study

Objective

Although adjuvant trastuzumab-based treatment (TBT) improves survival for patients with HER2-positive early invasive breast cancer (EIBC), risk of toxicity grows as patient age increases. We examined use of TBT and associated severe acute toxicity event (SATE) rates to understand the real-world impact.

Methods and analysis

Women (50+ years), newly diagnosed with HER2-positive EIBC in England, 2014-2019, were identified from Cancer Registry data, linked to the Systemic Anti-Cancer Therapy dataset for TBT information. SATEs were measured using hospital administrative data. Statistical models were developed to identify potential predictors of SATE.

Results

Among 5087 women who received trastuzumab, with median duration 11.7 months, 47.4% (95% CI 46.0% to 48.7%) completed treatment. Women aged 70+ years made up 20.2% of patients aged 50+ who received adjuvant TBT in routine care, compared with 5% of women aged 50+ across trials. 32.8% (95% CI 31.5% to 34.1%) had a record of any SATE. 6.8% (95% CI 6.1% to 7.5%) had a cardiovascular SATE. Congestive cardiac failure rate was 0.5% (95% CI 0.3% to 0.7%). High deprivation, anthracycline use, increasing frailty were associated with increased odds of any SATE. Older age, sequential chemotherapy, history of myocardial infarction/chronic pulmonary disorder/liver disease were associated with increased odds of cardiovascular SATE. Among two-thirds of women not eligible for trial cohorts SATE rates were lower than for trial-eligible patients, explained by baseline differences in patients.

Conclusion

Evidence of treatment-related SATE among patients treated in routine care is needed to inform treatment decisions and counsel older patients. This study provides information on SATE rates for adjuvant TBT, and common types, overall and by age for such discussions.

Predictors of persistent postoperative opioid use following colectomy: a population-based cohort study from England

This retrospective cohort study on adults undergoing colectomy from 2010 to 2019 used linked primary (Clinical Practice Research Datalink), and secondary (Hospital Episode Statistics) care data to determine the prevalence of persistent postoperative opioid use following colectomy, stratified by pre-admission opioid exposure, and identify associated predictors. Based on pre-admission opioid exposure, patients were categorised as opioid-naïve, currently exposed (opioid prescription 0-6 months before admission) and previously exposed (opioid prescription within 7-12 months before admission). Persistent postoperative opioid use was defined as requiring an opioid prescription within 90 days of discharge, along with one or more opioid prescriptions 91-180 days after hospital discharge. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to obtain odds ratios for predictors of persistent postoperative opioid use. Among the 93,262 patients, 15,081 (16.2%) were issued at least one opioid prescription within 90 days of discharge. Of these, 6791 (45.0%) were opioid-naïve, 7528 (49.9%) were currently exposed and 762 (5.0%) were previously exposed. From the whole cohort, 7540 (8.1%) developed persistent postoperative opioid use. Patients with pre-operative opioid exposure had the highest persistent use: 5317 (40.4%) from the currently exposed group; 305 (9.8%) from the previously exposed group; and 1918 (2.5%) from the opioid-naïve group. The odds of developing persistent opioid use were higher among individuals who used long-acting opioid formulations in the 180 days before colectomy than those who used short-acting formulations (odds ratio 3.41 (95%CI 3.07-3.77)). Predictors of persistent opioid use included: previous opioid exposure; high deprivation index; multiple comorbidities; use of long-acting opioids; white race; and open surgery. Minimally invasive surgical approaches were associated with lower odds of persistent opioid use and may represent a modifiable risk factor.

Gestational age and hospital admission costs from birth to childhood: a population-based record linkage study in England

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between gestational age at birth and hospital admission costs from birth to 8 years of age.

DESIGN

Population-based, record linkage, cohort study in England.

SETTING

National Health Service (NHS) hospitals in England, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

1 018 136 live, singleton births in NHS hospitals in England between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2006.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Hospital admission costs from birth to age 8 years, estimated by gestational age at birth (<28, 28-29, 30-31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41 and 42 weeks).

RESULTS

Both birth admission and subsequent admission hospital costs decreased with increasing gestational age at birth. Differences in hospital admission costs between gestational age groups diminished with increasing age, particularly after the first 2 years following birth. Children born extremely preterm (<28 weeks) and very preterm (28-31 weeks) still had higher average hospital admission costs (£699 (95% CI £419 to £919) for <28 weeks; £434 (95% CI £305 to £563) for 28-31 weeks) during the eighth year of life compared with children born at 40 weeks (£109, 95% CI £104 to £114). Children born extremely preterm had the highest 8-year cumulative hospital admission costs per child (£80 559 (95% CI £79 238 to £82 019)), a large proportion of which was incurred during the first year after birth (£71 997 (95% CI £70 866 to £73 097)).

CONCLUSIONS

The association between gestational age at birth and hospital admission costs persists into mid-childhood. The study results provide a useful costing resource for future economic evaluations focusing on preventive and treatment strategies for babies born preterm.

Did the evidence-based intervention (EBI) programme reduce inappropriate procedures, lessen unwarranted variation or lead to spill-over effects in the National Health Service?

BACKGROUND

Health systems are under pressure to maintain services within limited resources. The Evidence-Based Interventions (EBI) programme published a first list of guidelines in 2019, which aimed to reduce inappropriate use of interventions within the NHS in England, reducing potential harm and optimising the use of limited resources. Seventeen procedures were selected in the first round, published in April 2019.

METHODS

We evaluated changes in the trends for each procedure after its inclusion in the EBI's first list of guidelines using interrupted time series analysis. We explored whether there was any evidence of spill-over effects onto related or substitute procedures, as well as exploring changes in geographical variation following the publication of national guidance.

RESULTS

Most procedures were experiencing downward trends in the years prior to the launch of EBI. We found no evidence of a trend change in any of the 17 procedures following the introduction of the guidance. No evidence of spill-over increases in substitute or related procedures was found. Geographic variation in the number of procedures performed across English CCGs remained at similar levels before and after EBI.

CONCLUSIONS

The EBI programme had little success in its aim to further reduce the use of the 17 procedures it deemed inappropriate in all or certain circumstances. Most procedure rates were already decreasing before EBI and all continued with a similar trend afterwards. Geographical variation in the number of procedures remained at a similar level post EBI. De-adoption of inappropriate care is essential in maintaining health systems across the world. However, further research is needed to explore context specific enablers and barriers to effective identification and de-adoption of such inappropriate health care to support future de-adoption endeavours.

Use of a Statistical Adaptive Treatment Strategy Approach for Emulating Randomized Controlled Trials Using Observational Data: The Example of Blood-Pressure Control Strategies for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Events Among Individuals With Hypertension at High Cardiovascular Risk

Statistical approaches to adaptive treatment strategies (ATS) can be used to mimic the sequential decision-making inherently found in clinical practice. To illustrate the use of a statistical ATS approach, we emulated a target trial of different blood pressure (BP) control plans for the prevention of cardiovascular events among individuals with hypertension at high cardiovascular risk, inspired by the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT). We included 103,708 patients with hypertension and a "QRISK3" estimated 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease of ≥20% who initiated an antihypertensive drug between 1998 and 2018. Dynamic marginal structural models estimated the comparative effects of treating patients with intensive (target BP: 130/80 mm Hg), standard (140/90 mm Hg), and conservative (150/90 mm Hg) BP control strategies. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for the intensive versus standard strategy were 0.96 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.92, 1.00) for major adverse cardiovascular events and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.88, 0.97) for death from cardiovascular causes. For the conservative versus standard strategy, they were 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.10) and 1.08 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.13), respectively. These results are largely compatible with SPRINT. ATS can be used to emulate randomized controlled trials of complex treatment strategies in an observational setting and represents an alternative approach for situations where randomized controlled trials are not feasible.

The incidence rate of planned and emergency physical health hospital admissions in people diagnosed with severe mental illness: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

People with severe mental illness (SMI) have more physical health conditions than the general population, resulting in higher rates of hospitalisations and mortality. In this study, we aimed to determine the rate of emergency and planned physical health hospitalisations in those with SMI, compared to matched comparators, and to investigate how these rates differ by SMI diagnosis.

METHODS

We used Clinical Practice Research DataLink Gold and Aurum databases to identify 20,668 patients in England diagnosed with SMI between January 2000 and March 2016, with linked hospital records in Hospital Episode Statistics. Patients were matched with up to four patients without SMI. Primary outcomes were emergency and planned physical health admissions. Avoidable (ambulatory care sensitive) admissions and emergency admissions for accidents, injuries and substance misuse were secondary outcomes. We performed negative binomial regression, adjusted for clinical and demographic variables, stratified by SMI diagnosis.

RESULTS

Emergency physical health (aIRR:2.33; 95% CI 2.22-2.46) and avoidable (aIRR:2.88; 95% CI 2.60-3.19) admissions were higher in patients with SMI than comparators. Emergency admission rates did not differ by SMI diagnosis. Planned physical health admissions were lower in schizophrenia (aIRR:0.80; 95% CI 0.72-0.90) and higher in bipolar disorder (aIRR:1.33; 95% CI 1.24-1.43). Accident, injury and substance misuse emergency admissions were particularly high in the year after SMI diagnosis (aIRR: 6.18; 95% CI 5.46-6.98).

CONCLUSION

We found twice the incidence of emergency physical health admissions in patients with SMI compared to those without SMI. Avoidable admissions were particularly elevated, suggesting interventions in community settings could reduce hospitalisations. Importantly, we found underutilisation of planned inpatient care in patients with schizophrenia. Interventions are required to ensure appropriate healthcare use, and optimal diagnosis and treatment of physical health conditions in people with SMI, to reduce the mortality gap due to physical illness.

Opioid Injection-Associated Bacterial Infections in England, 2002-2021: A Time Series Analysis of Seasonal Variation and the Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019

BACKGROUND

Bacterial infections cause substantial pain and disability among people who inject drugs. We described time trends in hospital admissions for injecting-related infections in England.

METHODS

We analyzed hospital admissions in England between January 2002 and December 2021. We included patients with infections commonly caused by drug injection, including cutaneous abscesses, cellulitis, endocarditis, or osteomyelitis, and a diagnosis of opioid use disorder. We used Poisson regression to estimate seasonal variation and changes associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) response.

RESULTS

There were 92 303 hospital admissions for injection-associated infections between 2002 and 2021. Eighty-seven percent were skin, soft-tissue, or vascular infections; 72% of patients were male; and the median age increased from 31 years in 2002 to 42 years in 2021. The rate of admissions reduced from 13.97 per day (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.59-14.36) in 2003 to 8.94 (95% CI, 8.64-9.25) in 2011, then increased to 18.91 (95% CI, 18.46-19.36) in 2019. At the introduction of COVID-19 response in March 2020, the rate of injection-associated infections reduced by 35.3% (95% CI, 32.1-38.4). Injection-associated infections were also seasonal; the rate was 1.21 (95% CI, 1.18-1.24) times higher in July than in February.

CONCLUSIONS

This incidence of opioid injection-associated infections varies within years and reduced following COVID-19 response measures. This suggests that social and structural factors such as housing and the degree of social mixing may contribute to the risk of infection, supporting investment in improved social conditions for this population as a means to reduce the burden of injecting-related infections.

Secondary healthcare costs after mastectomy and immediate breast reconstruction for women with breast cancer in England: population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Immediate breast reconstruction after mastectomy can improve the quality of life for women with breast cancer and rates are increasing. Long-term inpatient costs of care were estimated to understand the impact of different immediate breast reconstruction procedures on healthcare expenditure.

METHODS

Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care data were used to identify women undergoing unilateral mastectomy and immediate breast reconstruction in English National Health Service hospitals (1 April 2009 to 31 March 2015) and any subsequent procedures performed to revise, replace, or complete the breast reconstruction. Costs were assigned to Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care data using the Healthcare Resource Group 2020/21 National Costs Grouper. Generalized linear models were used to estimate mean cumulative costs for five immediate breast reconstruction procedures over 3 and 8 years, adjusting for covariates (age/ethnicity/deprivation).

RESULTS

A total of 16 890 women underwent mastectomy and immediate breast reconstruction: implant (5192; 30.7 per cent), expander (2826; 16.7 per cent), autologous latissimus dorsi flap (2372; 14.0 per cent), latissimus dorsi flap with expander/implant (3109; 18.4 per cent), and abdominal free-flap reconstruction (3391; 20.1 per cent). The mean (95 per cent c.i.) cumulative cost was lowest for latissimus dorsi flap with expander/implant reconstruction (€20 103 (€19 582 to €20 625)) over 3 years and highest for abdominal free-flap reconstruction (€27 560 (€27 037 to €28 083)). Over 8 years, expander (€29 140 (€27 659 to €30 621)) and latissimus dorsi flap with expander/implant (€29 312 (€27 622 to €31 003)) reconstructions were the least expensive, while abdominal free-flap reconstruction (€34 536 (€32 958 to €36 113)) remained the most expensive, despite having lower costs for revisions and secondary reconstructions. This was driven primarily by the cost of the index procedure (€5435 (expander reconstruction) to €15 106 (abdominal free-flap reconstruction)).

CONCLUSION

Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care Healthcare Resource Group data provided a comprehensive longitudinal cost assessment of secondary care. Although abdominal free-flap reconstruction was the most expensive option, higher costs of the index procedure need to be balanced against ongoing long-term costs of revisions/secondary reconstructions, which are higher after implant-based procedures.

Mortality rates among patients successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free antivirals: population based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To quantify mortality rates for patients successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free, direct acting antivirals and compare these rates with those of the general population.

DESIGN

Population based cohort study.

SETTING

British Columbia, Scotland, and England (England cohort consists of patients with cirrhosis only).

PARTICIPANTS

21 790 people who were successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free antivirals (2014-19). Participants were divided into three liver disease severity groups: people without cirrhosis (pre-cirrhosis), those with compensated cirrhosis, and those with end stage liver disease. Follow-up started 12 weeks after antiviral treatment completion and ended on date of death or 31 December 2019.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Crude and age-sex standardised mortality rates, and standardised mortality ratio comparing the number of deaths with that of the general population, adjusting for age, sex, and year. Poisson regression was used to identify factors associated with all cause mortality rates.

RESULTS

1572 (7%) participants died during follow-up. The leading causes of death were drug related mortality (n=383, 24%), liver failure (n=286, 18%), and liver cancer (n=250, 16%). Crude all cause mortality rates (deaths per 1000 person years) were 31.4 (95% confidence interval 29.3 to 33.7), 22.7 (20.7 to 25.0), and 39.6 (35.4 to 44.3) for cohorts from British Columbia, Scotland, and England, respectively. All cause mortality was considerably higher than the rate for the general population across all disease severity groups and settings; for example, all cause mortality was three times higher among people without cirrhosis in British Columbia (standardised mortality ratio 2.96, 95% confidence interval 2.71 to 3.23; P<0.001) and more than 10 times higher for patients with end stage liver disease in British Columbia (13.61, 11.94 to 15.49; P<0.001). In regression analyses, older age, recent substance misuse, alcohol misuse, and comorbidities were associated with higher mortality rates.

CONCLUSION

Mortality rates among people successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free, direct acting antivirals are high compared with the general population. Drug and liver related causes of death were the main drivers of excess mortality. These findings highlight the need for continued support and follow-up after successful treatment for hepatitis C to maximise the impact of direct acting antivirals.

Epidemiology of childhood acute kidney injury in England using e-alerts

Background

Few studies describe the epidemiology of childhood acute kidney injury (AKI) nationally. Laboratories in England are required to issue electronic (e-)alerts for AKI based on serum creatinine changes. This study describes a national cohort of children who received an AKI alert and their clinical course.

Methods

A cross-section of AKI episodes from 2017 are described. Hospital record linkage enabled description of AKI-associated hospitalizations including length of stay (LOS) and critical care requirement. Risk associations with critical care (hospitalized cohort) and 30-day mortality (total cohort) were examined using multivariable logistic regression.

Results

In 2017, 7788 children (52% male, median age 4.4 years, interquartile range 0.9-11.5 years) experienced 8927 AKI episodes; 8% occurred during birth admissions. Of 5582 children with hospitalized AKI, 25% required critical care. In children experiencing an AKI episode unrelated to their birth admission, Asian ethnicity, young (<1 year) or old (16-<18 years) age (reference 1-<5 years), and high peak AKI stage had higher odds of critical care. LOS was higher with peak AKI stage, irrespective of critical care admission. Overall, 30-day mortality rate was 3% (n = 251); youngest and oldest age groups, hospital-acquired AKI, higher peak stage and critical care requirement had higher odds of death. For children experiencing AKI alerts during their birth admission, no association was seen between higher peak AKI stage and critical care admission.

Conclusions

Risk associations for adverse AKI outcomes differed among children according to AKI type and whether hospitalization was related to birth. Understanding the factors driving AKI development and progression may help inform interventions to minimize morbidity.

The Impact of Pre-Operative Anaemia on One Year Amputation Free Survival and Re-Admissions in Patients Undergoing Vascular Surgery for Peripheral Arterial Disease: a National Vascular Registry Study

OBJECTIVE

Anaemia is common among patients undergoing surgery, but its association with post-operative outcomes in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is unclear. The aim of this observational population based study was to examine the association between pre-operative anaemia and one year outcomes after surgical revascularisation for PAD.

METHODS

This study used data from the National Vascular Registry, linked with an administrative database (Hospital Episode Statistics), to identify patients who underwent open surgical lower limb revascularisation for PAD in English NHS hospitals between January 2016 and December 2019. The primary outcome was one year amputation free survival. Secondary outcomes were one year re-admission rate, 30 day re-intervention rate, 30 day ipsilateral major amputation rate and 30 day death. Flexible parametric survival analysis and generalised linear regression were performed to assess the effect of anaemia on one year outcomes.

RESULTS

The analysis included 13 641 patients, 57.9% of whom had no anaemia, 23.8% mild, and 18.3% moderate or severe anaemia. At one year follow up, 80.6% of patients were alive and amputation free. The risk of one year amputation or death was elevated in patients with mild anaemia (adjusted HR 1.3; 95% CI 1.15 - 1.41) and moderate or severe anaemia (aHR 1.5; 1.33 - 1.67). Patients with moderate or severe anaemia experienced more re-admissions over one year (adjusted IRR 1.31; 1.26 - 1.37) and had higher odds of 30 day re-interventions (aOR 1.22; 1.04 - 1.45), 30 day ipsilateral major amputation (aOR 1.53; 1.17 - 2.01), and 30 day death (aOR 1.39; 1.03 - 1.88) compared with patients with no anaemia.

CONCLUSION

Pre-operative anaemia is associated with lower one year amputation free survival and higher one year re-admission rates following surgical revascularisation in patients with PAD. Research is required to evaluate whether interventions to correct anaemia improve outcomes after lower limb revascularisation.

Outcomes after minor lower limb amputation for peripheral arterial disease and diabetes: population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Patients with diabetes and peripheral arterial disease are at increased risk of minor amputation. The aim of study was to assess the rate of re-amputations and death after an initial minor amputation, and to identify associated risk factors.

METHODS

Data on all patients aged 40 years and over with diabetes and/or peripheral arterial disease, who underwent minor amputation between January 2014 and December 2018, were extracted from Hospital Episode Statistics. Patients who had bilateral index procedures or an amputation in the 3 years before the study were excluded. Primary outcomes were ipsilateral major amputation and death after the index minor amputation. Secondary outcomes were ipsilateral minor re-amputations, and contralateral minor and major amputations.

RESULTS

In this study of 22 118 patients, 16 808 (76.0 per cent) were men and 18 473 (83.5 per cent) had diabetes. At 1 year after minor amputation, the estimated ipsilateral major amputation rate was 10.7 (95 per cent c.i. 10.3 to 11.1) per cent. Factors associated with a higher risk of ipsilateral major amputation included male sex, severe frailty, diagnosis of gangrene, emergency admission, foot amputation (compared with toe amputation), and previous or concurrent revascularization. The estimated mortality rate was 17.2 (16.7 to 17.7) per cent at 1 year and 49.4 (48.6 to 50.1) per cent at 5 years after minor amputation. Older age, severe frailty, comorbidity, gangrene, and emergency admission were associated with a significantly higher mortality risk.

CONCLUSION

Minor amputations were associated with a high risk of major amputation and death. One in 10 patients had an ipsilateral major amputation within the first year after minor amputation and half had died by 5 years.