Trends in burden of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma by underlying liver disease in US veterans, 2001-2013

Risk Prediction Models for Post-Operative Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis are at increased risk of postoperative mortality. Currently available tools to predict postoperative risk are suboptimally calibrated and do not account for surgery type. Our objective was to use population-level data to derive and internally validate cirrhosis surgical risk models.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL) cohort, which contains granular data on patients with cirrhosis from 128 U.S. medical centers, merged with the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) to identify surgical procedures. We categorized surgeries as abdominal wall, vascular, abdominal, cardiac, chest, or orthopedic and used multivariable logistic regression to model 30-, 90-, and 180-day postoperative mortality (VOCAL-Penn models). We compared model discrimination and calibration of VOCAL-Penn to the Mayo Risk Score (MRS), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium MELD-Na, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores. We identified 4,712 surgical procedures in 3,785 patients with cirrhosis. The VOCAL-Penn models were derived and internally validated with excellent discrimination (30-day postoperative mortality C-statistic = 0.859; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.809-0.909). Predictors included age, preoperative albumin, platelet count, bilirubin, surgery category, emergency indication, fatty liver disease, American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, and obesity. Model performance was superior to MELD, MELD-Na, CTP, and MRS at all time points (e.g., 30-day postoperative mortality C-statistic for MRS = 0.766; 95% CI, 0.676-0.855) in terms of discrimination and calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

The VOCAL-Penn models substantially improve postoperative mortality predictions in patients with cirrhosis. These models may be applied in practice to improve preoperative risk stratification and optimize patient selection for surgical procedures (www.vocalpennscore.com).

Older Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Are Less Knowledgeable About Survivorship Issues: Outcomes from a Survey-based Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

As the incidence and survival for hepatocellular carcinoma increase, the number of patients having been treated for liver cancer would be expected to increase as well. Little is known about the experience of the survivors of hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

The authors conducted a 3-tool survey of hepatocellular carcinoma survivors at a large, academic, and tertiary referral medical center to assess potential areas of disparities in the survivorship experience. The instruments aimed to assess knowledge of survivorship issues (Perceived Efficacy in Patient-Physician Interactions Questionnaire-1), preparedness for the survivorship experience (Perceived Efficacy in Patient-Physician Interactions Questionnaire-2), and self-efficacy in procuring medical information while navigating the patient-provider relationship (Perceived Efficacy in Patient-Physician Interactions Questionnaire). The authors compared mean test scores for each instrument, with higher scores indicating a more positive response, by patient characteristics and used s linear regression model to examine associations between sociodemographics and survey scores.

RESULTS

In total, 110 patients took at least 1 survey. In the multiple linear regression model, the authors found that for every increase in patient age by 10 years, knowledge of survivorship issues decreased by a total score of 1.3 (P=0.02). In this model, the authors found no significant differences between male and female respondents, English and non-English speakers, and liver transplant recipients and nonliver transplant recipients. Survivors who had completed a 4-year college degree had significantly higher knowledge of survivorship issues than those who did not use χ testing, but this finding did not maintain significance in the multiple linear regression model.

CONCLUSIONS

In a population of 110 ethnically diverse hepatocellular carcinoma survivors, the authors found older patients had gaps in knowledge of survivorship issues. Particular attention should be paid to older populations during liver cancer treatment.

The Role of Advanced Practice Providers in the Care of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common liver disease in the United States. NAFLD presents unique challenges to conventional health care delivery. Patients require accurate, efficient risk stratification to both individualize clinical management plans and optimize subspecialty resource allocation The hepatology workforce is grossly outmatched by the demand for NAFLD referrals, however. Advanced practice providers (APPs) may be best suited to meeting the challenges of NAFLD care. This article reviews the nature and scope of APP practice, the specific needs posed by NAFLD, and the evidence supporting the comparative advantages of APPs in optimizing the outcomes of patients with NAFLD. Our goal is to show how APPs are uniquely suited to addressing the needs of patients with NAFLD who are seen in hepatology practice, with an emphasis on training philosophy and behavioral intervention.

Ribavirin Improves NK Cell IFNγ Response During Sofosbuvir-based DAA Therapy in CV-infected Liver Transplant Recipients

BACKGROUND

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is characterized by activation of natural killer (NK) cells. Here, we asked whether HCV-elimination by sofosbuvir-based direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) and addition of RBV improves NK cell function in liver transplant (LTx) recipients.

METHODS

We analyzed NK cell degranulation and IFNγ-response along with STAT-1 and STAT-4 phosphorylation in 29 HCV-infected LTx-recipients and 17 HCV-infected patients during DAA-treatment.

RESULTS

Compared to uninfected LTx-recipients, NK cells from HCV-infected LTx-recipients were polarized towards cytotoxicity with increased CD107a-degranulation (10.1% vs 14.6%; P=0.0263) and reduced capacity to produce IFNγ (43.0% vs 26.7%; P=0.0002). The altered phenotype of NK cells in HCV-infected LTx-recipients was accompanied by increased STAT-1 (44.6% vs 87.4%; P<0.0001) and STAT-1 phosphorylation (0.7% vs 8.9%; P=0.0005) compared to pSTAT-4 IFNα-induction (29.9% vs 17.6%; P=0.0014). Successful DAA-therapy did not affect CD107a-degranulation, but decreased STAT-1. RBV cotreatment with DAA-therapy for HCV increased CD56Bright NK cell IFNγ-responses in LTx-recipients (70.9% vs 89.2%; P=0.002) and this correlated to an increase in the inducibility of pSTAT-4 (MFI 157 vs 173; P=0.0002).

CONCLUSION

RBV cotreatment of HCV-infection improved pSTAT4-dependent IFNγ-production in NK cells. This is relevant especially for immunocompromised patients such as LTx-recipients or patients with end-stage liver disease.

Outcomes of cholecystectomy in US veterans with cirrhosis: Predicting outcomes using nomogram

BACKGROUND

This study examines the outcomes of open and laparoscopic cholecystectomy (OC/LC) in veterans with cirrhosis and develops a nomogram to predict outcomes.

METHODS

We analyzed the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program to identify all patients with cirrhosis and ascites who underwent cholecystectomy from 2008 to 2015. Univariate and multivariate regression were used to identify predictors of morbidity and mortality. A predictive nomogram was constructed and internally validated.

RESULTS

A total of 349 patients were identified. Overall, complications occurred in 18.7% of patients, and mortality was 3.8%. LC was performed in 58.9%, and 19.2% were preformed emergently. Overall, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score was an independent factor of morbidity and mortality, while laparoscopic approach had a protective effect on morbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

Although cholecystectomy is a high-risk operation in cirrhotic veterans, LC may have favorable outcomes than OC in selected patients. An easy-to-use nomogram to predict morbidity and mortality for cirrhotic patients undergoing cholecystectomy is proposed.

Personalized surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis - using machine learning adapted to HCV status

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Refining hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance programs requires improved individual risk prediction. Thus, we aimed to develop algorithms based on machine learning approaches to predict the risk of HCC more accurately in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis, according to their virological status.

METHODS

Patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV-related cirrhosis from the French ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort were included in a semi-annual HCC surveillance program. Three prognostic models for HCC occurrence were built, using (i) Fine-Gray regression as a benchmark, (ii) single decision tree (DT), and (iii) random survival forest for competing risks survival (RSF). Model performance was evaluated from C-indexes validated externally in the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort (n = 668 enrolled between 08/2012-01/2014).

RESULTS

Out of 836 patients analyzed, 156 (19%) developed HCC and 434 (52%) achieved sustained virological response (SVR) (median follow-up 63 months). Fine-Gray regression models identified 6 independent predictors of HCC occurrence in patients before SVR (past excessive alcohol intake, genotype 1, elevated AFP and GGT, low platelet count and albuminemia) and 3 in patients after SVR (elevated AST, low platelet count and shorter prothrombin time). DT analysis confirmed these associations but revealed more complex interactions, yielding 8 patient groups with varying cancer risks and predictors depending on SVR achievement. On RSF analysis, the most important predictors of HCC varied by SVR status (non-SVR: platelet count, GGT, AFP and albuminemia; SVR: prothrombin time, ALT, age and platelet count). Externally validated C-indexes before/after SVR were 0.64/0.64 [Fine-Gray], 0.60/62 [DT] and 0.71/0.70 [RSF].

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factors for hepatocarcinogenesis differ according to SVR status. Machine learning algorithms can refine HCC risk assessment by revealing complex interactions between cancer predictors. Such approaches could be used to develop more cost-effective tailored surveillance programs.

LAY SUMMARY

Patients with HCV-related cirrhosis must be included in liver cancer surveillance programs, which rely on ultrasound examination every 6 months. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening is hampered by sensitivity issues, leading to late cancer diagnoses in a substantial number of patients. Refining surveillance periodicity and modality using more sophisticated imaging techniques such as MRI may only be cost-effective in patients with the highest HCC incidence. Herein, we demonstrate how machine learning algorithms (i.e. data-driven mathematical models to make predictions or decisions), can refine individualized risk prediction.

Molecular subtyping of hepatocellular carcinoma: A step toward precision medicine

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most prevalent and fatal digestive tumors. Treatment for this disease has been constraint by heterogeneity of this group of tumors, which has greatly limited the progress in personalized therapy. Although existing studies have revealed the genetic and epigenetic blueprints that drive HCCs, many of the molecular mechanisms that lead to HCCs remain elusive. Recent advances in techniques for studying functional genomics, such as genome sequencing and transcriptomic analyses, have led to the discovery of molecular mechanisms that participate in the initiation and evolution of HCC. Integrative multi-omics analyses have identified several molecular subtypes of HCC associated with specific molecular characteristics and clinical outcomes. Deciphering similar molecular features among highly heterogeneous HCC patients is a prerequisite to implementation of personalized therapeutics. This review summarizes the current research progresses in precision therapy on the backbone of molecular subtypes of HCC.

Ferritin as a key risk factor for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in children with obesity

Background

The association between serum ferritin and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in children with obesity is not clear. This study was designed to investigate whether serum ferritin can be an independent predictor for NAFLD.

Methods

According to the hepatic ultrasound results, a total of 347 children with obesity were enrolled in this study. Among them, 95 patients with NAFLD and 95 without NAFLD were matched for gender, age, blood pressure and body mass index, the odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of ferritin and the risk of NAFLD were analyzed.

Results

After propensity score matching, ferritin values of the patients with NAFLD were significantly higher than those without NAFLD group. Alanine aminotransferase and ferritin were strongly associated with NAFLD in multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis. The medium and high levels of ferritin increased risk of NAFLD, and the adjusted ORs were 3.298 (95% CI:1.326‐8.204), 7.322 (95% CI:2.725‐19.574) across the ferritin concentration tertiles after adjustment for confounders. Ferritin was shown to be the best predictor for NAFLD with sensitivity and specificity of 60.0% and 77.9%, respectively, area under the curve was 0.733.

Conclusion

The results show that serum ferritin can usefully be considered as a predictor of NAFLD in children with obesity.

Risk Factors, Pathogenesis, and Strategies for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prevention: Emphasis on Secondary Prevention and Its Translational Challenges

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-associated mortality globally. Given the limited therapeutic efficacy in advanced HCC, prevention of HCC carcinogenesis could serve as an effective strategy. Patients with chronic fibrosis due to viral or metabolic etiologies are at a high risk of developing HCC. Primary prevention seeks to eliminate cancer predisposing risk factors while tertiary prevention aims to prevent HCC recurrence. Secondary prevention targets patients with baseline chronic liver disease. Various epidemiological and experimental studies have identified candidates for secondary prevention-both etiology-specific and generic prevention strategies-including statins, aspirin, and anti-diabetic drugs. The introduction of multi-cell based omics analysis along with better characterization of the hepatic microenvironment will further facilitate the identification of targets for prevention. In this review, we will summarize HCC risk factors, pathogenesis, and discuss strategies of HCC prevention. We will focus on secondary prevention and also discuss current challenges in translating experimental work into clinical practice.

The Use of Administrative Data to Investigate the Population Burden of Hepatic Encephalopathy

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a devastating complication of cirrhosis with an increasing footprint in global public health. Although the condition is defined using a careful history and examination, we cannot accurately measure the true impact of HE relying on data collected exclusively from clinical studies. For this reason, administrative data sources are necessary to study the population burden of HE. Administrative data is generated with each health care encounter to account for health care resource utilization and is extracted into a dataset for the secondary purpose of research. In order to utilize such data for valid analysis, several pitfalls must be avoided—specifically, selecting the particular database capable of meeting the needs of the study’s aims, paying careful attention to the limits of each given database, and ensuring validity of case definition for HE specific to the dataset. In this review, we summarize the types of data available for and the results of administrative data studies of HE.

Cognitive Tests and Stool Frequency at Hospital Discharge Do Not Predict Outcomes in Hepatic Encephalopathy

OBJECTIVES

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is associated with hospital readmissions and mortality. We sought to determine whether cognitive testing and stool frequency at discharge predicted 30-day readmission or death in cirrhotic patients admitted with overt HE.

METHODS

We approached consecutive inpatients with cirrhosis and overt HE when they were within 48 hours of discharge. Patients underwent cognitive tests, including Psychometric Hepatic Encephalopathy Score (PHES), and stool frequency was documented. Chart review identified Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-sodium (MELD-Na) and the presence of non-HE extrahepatic organ failures. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate predictors of time to the primary composite outcome of hospital readmission for HE or death within 30 days, censoring for liver transplantation.

RESULTS

Of 51 patients consented and enrolled, 14 patients met the primary composite outcome. In unadjusted Cox models, 4 variables predicted HE readmission or death: MELD-Na (hazard ratio [HR] 1.10 [1.01-1.20], P = 0.03), respiratory failure (HR 4.26 [1.47-12.35], P = 0.008), total number of HE extrahepatic organ failures (HR 1.79 [1.12-2.88], P = 0.02), and score on a PHES subtest, Number Connection Test A (per 30 seconds; HR 1.25 [1.06-1.47], P = 0.01). PHES and 24-hour stool frequency did not predict the primary outcome. When controlling for MELD-Na, respiratory failure predicted the primary outcome (HR 3.67 [1.24-10.86], P = 0.02).

CONCLUSION

Cognitive testing and stool frequency at discharge did not predict poor outcomes in patients admitted with HE, while respiratory failure appeared to be a strong predictor.

Natural History of Cirrhosis: Changing Trends in Etiology Over the Years

BACKGROUND AND GOALS

The aims of the present study were to investigate the natural history of cirrhosis and to determine trends in the etiology of cirrhosis.

METHODS

Between January 2001 and January 2018, a total of 1,341 patients had been diagnosed with cirrhosis and were included.

RESULTS

A total of 898 cirrhotic patients, who were followed up for at least 6 months were included into the analysis. The median age was 54 years. The median Child-Pugh and MELD scores were 7.5 and 11, respectively. Ascites (51%) was the most common causes of decompensation. Chronic viral hepatitis was the most frequent cause of cirrhosis (58%). Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection was the main etiology (34%), followed by hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection (18%). Among 129 patients with cryptogenic cirrhosis (CC), 60 had metabolic abnormalities. If these 60 patients with CC were considered to have nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-related cirrhosis, the proportion of NAFLD-related cirrhosis increased from 1.8 to 8.0%. At admission, 74 patients (8%) had been diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A new HCC developed in 80 patients during the follow-up period. The probability of developing HCC was 3.9% at 12 months. Logistic regression analysis showed that the development of HCC was significantly associated with older age (p < 0.001), male gender (p < 0.001), viral etiology (p = 0.026), and baseline high aspartate aminotransferase level (p = 0.01). Overall, 104 cirrhotic patients died.

CONCLUSION

HBV and HCV remain the leading causes of etiology in cirrhosis and HCC. However, NAFLD-related cirrhosis is recognized as a growing burden.

Development, Validation, and Evaluation of a Simple Machine Learning Model to Predict Cirrhosis Mortality

Importance

Machine-learning algorithms offer better predictive accuracy than traditional prognostic models but are too complex and opaque for clinical use.

Objective

To compare different machine learning methods in predicting overall mortality in cirrhosis and to use machine learning to select easily scored clinical variables for a novel cirrhosis prognostic model.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prognostic study used a retrospective cohort of adult patients with cirrhosis or its complications seen in 130 hospitals and affiliated ambulatory clinics in the integrated, national Veterans Affairs health care system from October 1, 2011, to September 30, 2015. Patients were followed up through December 31, 2018. Data were analyzed from October 1, 2017, to May 31, 2020.

Exposures

Potential predictors included demographic characteristics; liver disease etiology, severity, and complications; use of health care resources; comorbid conditions; and comprehensive laboratory and medication data. Patients were randomly selected for model development (66.7%) and validation (33.3%). Three different statistical and machine learning methods were evaluated: gradient descent boosting, logistic regression with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regularization, and logistic regression with LASSO constrained to select no more than 10 predictors (partial pathway model). Predictor inclusion and model performance were evaluated in a 5-fold cross-validation. Last, the predictors identified in the most parsimonious (the partial path) model were refit using maximum-likelihood estimation (Cirrhosis Mortality Model [CiMM]), and its predictive performance was compared with that of the widely used Model for End Stage Liver Disease with sodium (MELD-Na) score.

Main Outcomes and Measures

All-cause mortality.

Results

Of the 107 939 patients with cirrhosis (mean [SD] age, 62.7 [9.6] years; 96.6% male; 66.3% white, 18.4% African American), the annual mortality rate ranged from 8.8% to 15.3%. In total, 32.7% of patients died within 3 years, and 46.2% died within 5 years after the index date. Models predicting 1-year mortality had good discrimination for the gradient descent boosting (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC], 0.81; 95% CI, 0.80-0.82), logistic regression with LASSO regularization (AUC, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.77-0.79), and the partial path logistic model (AUC, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.76-0.78). All models showed good calibration. The final CiMM model with machine learning-derived clinical variables offered significantly better discrimination than the MELD-Na score, with AUCs of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.77-0.79) vs 0.67 (95% CI, 0.66-0.68) for 1-year mortality, respectively (DeLong z = 17.00; P < .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, simple machine learning techniques performed as well as the more advanced ensemble gradient boosting. Using the clinical variables identified from simple machine learning in a cirrhosis mortality model produced a new score more transparent than machine learning and more predictive than the MELD-Na score.

Noninvasive imaging assessment of portal hypertension

Portal hypertension (PH) is a spectrum of complications of chronic liver disease (CLD) and cirrhosis, with manifestations including ascites, gastroesophageal varices, splenomegaly, hypersplenism, hepatic hydrothorax, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatopulmonary syndrome and portopulmonary hypertension. PH can vary in severity and is diagnosed via invasive hepatic venous pressure gradient measurement (HVPG), which is considered the reference standard. Accurate diagnosis of PH and assessment of severity are highly relevant as patients with clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) are at higher risk for developing acute variceal bleeding and mortality. In this review, we discuss current and upcoming noninvasive imaging methods for diagnosis and assessment of severity of PH.

Clinical heterogeneity in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease-associated hepatocellular carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

The indisputable increase in nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) prevalence (25% of population) has consequently led to an increase in Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) and liver-related mortality worldwide. The characteristics of patients with HCC, secondary to NAFLD, are older age, large tumors due to late diagnosis, often without cirrhosis and high prevalence of the metabolic syndrome components, leading to an increased mortality rate. Although the mechanisms of disease remain partially obscure, insulin resistance, oxidative stress, apoptosis, iron overload, and excessive local and systemic inflammation are identified as culprits for hepatocarcinogenesis in the presence of NAFLD.

AREA COVERED

In this review, the authors report that there are no uniform guidelines for surveillance and early diagnosis in this patient group. Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging is generally applicable to HCC due to NAFLD and management depends on liver function, tumor characteristics, and cardiovascular comorbidity. Evidence suggests that HCC due to NAFLD can be associated with worse survival due to late diagnosis.

EXPERT OPINION

The need for effective early diagnosis and management of NAFLD is urgent, considering the galloping incidence of the obesity and the fact that liver cirrhosis and HCC due to NAFLD will become the first indication for liver transplantation in foreseeable future.

Newer second-line glucose-lowering drugs versus thiazolidinediones on cirrhosis risk among older US adult patients with type 2 diabetes

AIMS

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) accelerates progression of chronic liver disease to cirrhosis, yet the effects of most glucose-lowering drugs (GLDs) on cirrhosis risk in T2D are unknown. To address this gap, we compared cirrhosis risk following initiation of newer second-line GLDs vs. thiazolidinediones (TZDs), which improve histology in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using the US Medicare Fee-for-Service database (2007-2015) and an active comparator, new-user design, we estimated crude incidence rates (IRs) and propensity-score adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for incident cirrhosis, comparing newer GLDs (dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1RA), and sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i)) vs. TZDs.

RESULTS

Among 239,549 total initiators, we observed 318, 151, and < 30 cirrhosis events when comparing DPP4i vs. TZD, GLP1RA vs. TZD, and SGLT2i vs. TZD, respectively. IRs ranged from 1.7 [95% CI, 0.8-3.6] to 3.6 [2.5-5.2] events per 1000 person-years. Point aHR estimates for cirrhosis were elevated among newer GLD initiators vs. TZD (DPP4i: 1.15 [0.89-1.50]; GLP1RA: 1.34 [0.82-2.20]; SGLT2i: 1.16, [0.44-3.08]), although estimates were imprecise due to short durations of drug exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed mildly elevated cirrhosis risk with newer GLDs vs. TZD; however, uncertainty remains due to imprecise and statistically non-significant effect estimates.

Changes in the Global Burden of Chronic Liver Diseases From 2012 to 2017: The Growing Impact of NAFLD

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) are main causes of chronic liver disease. We assessed the global incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) related to chronic liver disease (primary liver cancer [LC] and cirrhosis).

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We obtained data from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study. In 2017, there were 2.14 million liver-related deaths (2.06-2.30 million), representing an 11.4% increase since 2012 (16.0% increase in LC deaths; 8.7% increase in cirrhosis deaths). LC and cirrhosis accounted for 38.3% and 61.7%, respectively, of liver deaths (LC and cirrhosis deaths were related to HBV [39% and 29%], HCV [29% and 26%], ALD [16% and 25%], and NAFLD [8% and 9%]). Between 2012 and 2017, age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and age-standardized DALY rate increased for LC from 11.1 to 11.8, 10.1 to 10.2, and 250.4 to 253.6 per 100,000, respectively. Although age-standardized incidence rate for cirrhosis increased from 66.0 to 66.3, ASDR and age-standardized DALY rate decreased from 17.1 to 16.5 and 532.9 to 510.7, respectively. The largest increase in ASDR for LC occurred in Eastern Europe (annual percent change [APC] = 2.18% [0.89%-3.49%]), whereas the largest decrease occurred in high-income Asia Pacific (APC = -2.88% [-3.58 to -2.18%]). ASDR for LC-NAFLD and ALD increased annually by 1.42% (1.00%-1.83%) and 0.53% (0.08-0.89), respectively, whereas there were no increases for HBV (P = 0.224) and HCV (P = 0.054). ASDR for cirrhosis-NAFLD increased (APC = 0.29% [0.01%-0.59%]) but decreased for ALD (APC = -0.44% [-0.78% to -0.40%]), HCV (APC = -0.50% [-0.81% to -0.18%]), and HBV (APC = -1.43% [-1.71% to -0.40%]).

CONCLUSIONS

From 2012 to 2017, the global burden of LC and cirrhosis has increased. Viral hepatitis remains the most common cause of liver deaths, and NAFLD is the most rapidly growing contributor to liver mortality and morbidity.

Contemporary Epidemiology of Chronic Liver Disease and Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Accurate estimates for the contemporary burden of chronic liver disease (CLD) are vital for setting clinical, research, and policy priorities. We aimed to review the incidence, prevalence, and mortality of CLD and its resulting complications, including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

We reviewed the published literature on the incidence, prevalence, trends of various etiologies of CLD and its resulting complications. In addition, we provided updated data from the Centers for Disease Control and Global Burden of Disease Study on the morbidity and mortality of CLD, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Lastly, we assessed the strengths and weaknesses of available sources of data in hopes of providing important context to these national estimates of cirrhosis burden.

RESULTS

An estimated 1.5 billion persons have CLD worldwide and the age-standardized incidence of CLD and cirrhosis is 20.7/100,000, a 13% increase since 2000. Similarly, cirrhosis prevalence and mortality has increased in recent years in the United States. The epidemiology of CLD is shifting, reflecting implementation of large-scale hepatitis B vaccination and hepatitis C treatment programs, the increasing prevalence of the metabolic syndrome, and increasing alcohol misuse.

CONCLUSIONS

The global burden of CLD and cirrhosis is substantial. Although vaccination, screening, and antiviral treatment campaigns for hepatitis B and C have reduced the CLD burden in some parts of the world, concomitant increases in injection drug use, alcohol misuse, and metabolic syndrome threaten these trends. Ongoing efforts to address CLD-related morbidity and mortality require accurate contemporary estimates of epidemiology and outcomes.

Carbohydrate Sulfotransferase 4 Inhibits the Progression of Hepatitis B Virus-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Is a Potential Prognostic Marker in Several Tumors

Carbohydrate sulfotransferase 4 (CHST4) plays an important role in lymphocyte homing and is abnormally expressed in several cancer types; however, its precise function in tumor development and progression is unknown. Here we confirm that CHST4 is aberrantly expressed in various tumor subtypes. In particular, we found that CHST4 expression was downregulated in hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HBV-HCC) tumors compared to paired normal tissue. We also showed that CHST4 overexpression inhibited the proliferation and metastasis of HCC cells in vitro. Clinically, CHST4 was identified as an independent prognostic factor for HBV-HCC patients. We further illuminated the anti-tumor role and mechanism of CHST4 in HBV-HCC by constructing a FENDRR–miR-10b-5p–CHST4 competing endogenous RNA network. We found that downregulation of CHST4 expression may promote HBV expression and regulate ribonucleoprotein complex biogenesis to promote malignant behaviors in HBV-HCC. CHST4 may also recruit CD4+ T cells, macrophages, dendritic cells, and neutrophils into the tumor microenvironment to inhibit the progression of HBV-HCC. Overall, our findings suggest that CHST4 acts as a tumor suppressor in HCC-HBV and represents a potential diagnostic and therapeutic target.

Observational and Genetic Associations of Body Mass Index and Hepatobiliary Diseases in a Relatively Lean Chinese Population

IMPORTANCE

There is some support for the existence of genetic associations between adiposity and certain hepatobiliary diseases in Western populations. However, there is little evidence of such genetic associations in China, where the causes of these diseases may differ from those in Western populations and the mean body mass index (BMI) is much lower.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the observational associations of BMI with hepatobiliary diseases and liver biomarkers with the genetic associations between BMI and these factors and to assess whether the genetic associations of BMI with liver diseases differed by hepatitis B virus infection status.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study used data from the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank, including 473 938 adults aged 30 to 79 years without hepatobiliary diseases at baseline from 10 diverse areas in China from June 25, 2004, to July 15, 2008. A random sample of 75 736 participants with genotyping data was included in the Mendelian randomization analysis. Follow-up was completed January 1, 2017 (median [interquartile range] length of follow-up, 10.2 [9.2-11.1] years). Data were analyzed from January to October 2019.

EXPOSURES

Measured BMI obtained during the baseline survey and genetically instrumented BMI derived using 92 single-nucleotide variations.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incident cases of hepatobiliary diseases, liver enzymes, fatty liver index, and fibrosis score.

RESULTS

Among 473 938 individuals (276 041 [58.2%] women), the mean (SD) age was 52 (10.9) years and mean (SD) BMI was 23.8 (3.4). Baseline BMI was associated with higher risks of chronic liver disease (adjusted risk ratio per 1-SD increase, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.17) and gallbladder disease (adjusted risk ratio per 1-SD increase, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.27 to 1.31), with heterogeneity by disease subtype (P < .001). Genetically instrumented BMI was associated with higher risks of chronic liver disease (risk ratio per 1-SD increase, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.08 to 2.24) and gallbladder disease (risk ratio per 1-SD increase, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.76), with no heterogeneity between subtypes. A meta-analysis of the genetic associations in China Kadoorie Biobank and those calculated in UK Biobank gave a risk ratio of 1.55 (95% CI, 1.30 to 1.84) for chronic liver disease and 1.42 (95% CI, 1.22 to 1.64) for gallbladder disease. In the China Kadoorie Biobank study, there were positive genetic associations of BMI with liver enzymes, steatosis, and fibrosis scores, consistent with observational associations. The genetic associations of BMI with liver diseases and biomarkers did not differ by hepatitis B virus infection status.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study of a relatively lean Chinese population, there were positive genetic associations of BMI with hepatobiliary diseases. These results suggest that maintaining a healthy weight through diet and physical activity may help prevent hepatobiliary diseases.

Survival Benefit of Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

In the United States, nearly 30% of liver transplants (LT) are performed for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although overall long-term survival is highest with LT, there are limited data on the incremental survival benefit of LT versus other curative options (resection or ablation) due to shunting of patients towards LT.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients aged 50-69 with cirrhosis and HCC in the Veterans Health Administration (population enriched with 3 curative treatments) from 2008 to 2016. The cohort was restricted to patients who received LT, resection, or ablation and a calculated model for end-stage liver disease score <15 at HCC diagnosis.

RESULTS

Among 2129 veterans in the analytic cohort, 658 (26.7%) received LT, 244 (11.5%) underwent resection, and 1317 (61.59%) received ablation. In multivariable models, patients who underwent resection (hazard ratio: 5.42; 95% confidence interval: 4.15-7.08) or ablation (hazard ratio: 5.50; 95% confidence interval: 4.51-6.71) had significantly increased hazards of death. However, in absolute terms, the incremental survival benefit of LT over resection or ablation was small, between 0.02 and 0.03 years at 1 year, 0.32-0.42 years at 3 years, and 1.04-1.24 years at 5 years follow-up. These results were consistent in sensitivity analyses accounting for possible immortal time bias, as well as a cohort restricted to early/intermediate stage HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Although LT is associated with significantly increased survival compared to resection and ablation, the absolute incremental survival benefit is small over a 5-year time horizon. Optimal selection of patients for LT is critical for maximizing utilization of a scarce resource.

Utilization of hepatitis C viremic donors for liver transplant recipients without hepatitis C. A veterans transplant center report

BACKGROUND

We report our experience utilizing liver donors with HCV Viremia (RNA+) for HCV-negative recipients (HCV D+R-) at a Veterans Affairs (VA) transplant center.

METHODS

In 2018, we introduced an informed consent process for HCV D+R- liver transplants.

RESULTS

Eight HCV D+R- liver transplants (LT) were performed. Median time from listing to LT was 189 days (range 41-511). Median MELD at LT was 23.5 (median MELD at LT of 31 for center). All recipients developed HCV viremia after transplant. Median time to DAA initiation was 10 days after viremia (range 3-25). After transplant, the DAAs used were Mavyret in five recipients and Epclusa in three, all for 12 weeks. All eight patients completed DAA therapy and achieved negative HCV RNA by end of therapy (ETR) and seven reached sustained virologic response (SVR) by 12 weeks after end of therapy. One patient died from chronic ischemic encephalopathy after ETR, before SVR.

CONCLUSIONS

HCV D+R- is a practical strategy to expand the pool of donor organs. It shortened waiting time, allowing patients to receive transplants at lower MELD scores. VA liver transplant programs have provided universal and timely access to post-transplant HCV DAA therapy after donor-derived infection.

Nutrition Parameters for Assessing Malnutrition in a Population of US Veterans With Hepatitis C Virus

BACKGROUND

Chronic liver disease often leads to malnutrition in patients. Patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) are at greater risk for misclassification due to disease-specific changes in fluid, muscle, and fat status. Tools traditionally used to diagnose malnutrition may not be applicable in the HCV population, and delaying malnutrition diagnosis may contribute to disease progression. The aim of the present study is to determine and compare the incidence of malnutrition in US veterans with HCV by using 3 different malnutrition assessment tools (subjective global assessment [SGA], American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition and the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics [ASPEN-AND], and Royal Free Hospital Global Assessment [RFH-GA]).

METHODS

Thirty-three US veterans were evaluated for malnutrition according to SGA, ASPEN-AND, and RFH-GA protocols using a prospective, descriptive study design.

RESULTS

Fifteen participants (45.5%) were classified with malnutrition using any criteria (SGA, ASPEN, or RFH-GA). All 3 tools had good agreement, with ASPEN-AND to RFH-GA having the highest specificity and sensitivity. Of those classified with malnutrition using any assessment tool, mean body mass index was 26.6 (P = .014), subjective muscle loss was the most frequently encountered parameter, and 6 (40%) of 15 also had fluid accumulation.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate that malnutrition and particularly muscle wasting is common in US veterans with HCV. All 3 tools had good agreement and the most commonly used nutrition parameter was muscle loss (subjective). In a malnutrition assessment tool for the HCV population, both subjective and objective measures of body composition should be included.

Characteristic Features of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Japan with a Focus on the Roles of Age, Sex and Body Mass Index

This review provides an update on the characteristics of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), with a focus on the effects of age, sex, and body mass index. Age is a risk factor for NAFLD progression; however, extremely old patients have unique features, namely, the associations between metabolic comorbidities and NAFLD are weaker and NAFLD is not a risk factor for mortality. The prevalence of NAFLD is higher in men than in premenopausal women, whereas the reverse is true after menopause. Thus, before menopause, estrogen may have protective effects against NAFLD. Our hospital data showed that over 25% of male patients with NAFLD and almost 40% of female patients with NAFLD, especially elderly patients, were nonobese. Although histological steatosis and activity were associated with body mass index, the prevalence of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis was not. The prevalence of advanced fibrosis showed a significant sex difference. Advanced fibrosis was significantly more frequent among severely obese men but the prevalence was lower among severely obese women. This difference could be because a substantial proportion of severely obese women were premenopausal; thus, estrogen may have much stronger effects on the development of fibrosis than on obesity. Further studies are required to develop tailored management strategies.

Coordination of Care Is Associated With Survival and Health Care Utilization in a Population-Based Study of Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Improving care coordination for patients with high-intensity specialty care needs, such as cirrhosis, can increase quality of healthcare and reduce utilization. We examined the relationship between care concentration and risk of hospitalization for patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of 26,006 Medicare enrollees with cirrhosis with more than 4 outpatient visits over 180 days. We collected data on 2 validated measures of care concentration: the usual provider of care (UPC) index, a measure of the proportion of a patient's total visits that is with their most regularly seen provider, and the continuity of care (COC) index, a measure of care density and dispersion. Both use a scale of 0 to 1. Time to death or liver transplantation was evaluated using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. Hospital days and 30-day readmissions per person-year were evaluated in negative binomial models.

RESULTS

The median COC score was 0.40 (interquartile range, 0.26-0.60) and the median UPC was 0.60 (interquartile range, 0.50-0.80). Increasing care concentration (based on COC and UPC index scores) were associated with increased mortality and hospitalization. The highest 25th percentile of COC and UPC scores were associated with adjusted hazard ratios for mortality of 1.20 (95% CI, 1.10-1.31) and 1.14 (95% CI, 1.06-1.24), adjusted incidence rate ratios for hospital days of 1.12 (95% CI, 1.02-1.23) and 1.10 (95% CI, 1.01-1.20), and adjusted incidence rate ratios for readmissions of 1.19 (95% CI, 1.06-1.34) and 1.12 (95% CI, 1.00-1.25), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on a study of Medicare enrollees, care concentration is low among patients with cirrhosis. However, increased concentration is associated with increased mortality and increased healthcare utilization. These data indicate that, to optimize outcomes for persons with cirrhosis, team-based care might be necessary.

Assessment of a Deep Learning Model to Predict Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Hepatitis C Cirrhosis

IMPORTANCE

Deep learning, a family of machine learning models that use artificial neural networks, has achieved great success at predicting outcomes in nonmedical domains.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether deep learning recurrent neural network (RNN) models that use raw longitudinal data extracted directly from electronic health records outperform conventional regression models in predicting the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This prognostic study included 48 151 patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis in the national Veterans Health Administration who had at least 3 years of follow-up after the diagnosis of cirrhosis. Patients were identified by having at least 1 positive HCV RNA test between January 1, 2000, to January 1, 2016, and were followed up from the diagnosis of cirrhosis to January 1, 2019, for the development of incident HCC. A total of 3 models predicting HCC during a 3-year period were developed and compared, as follows: (1) logistic regression (LR) with cross-sectional inputs (cross-sectional LR); (2) LR with longitudinal inputs (longitudinal LR); and (3) RNN with longitudinal inputs. Data analysis was conducted from April 2018 to August 2020.

EXPOSURES

Development of HCC.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, area under the precision-recall curve, and Brier score.

RESULTS

During a mean (SD) follow-up of 11.6 (5.0) years, 10 741 of 48 151 patients (22.3%) developed HCC (annual incidence, 3.1%), and a total of 52 983 samples (51 948 [98.0%] from men) were collected. Patients who developed HCC within 3 years were older than patients who did not (mean [SD] age, 58.2 [6.6] years vs 56.9 [6.9] years). RNN models had superior mean (SD) area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.759 [0.009]) and mean (SD) Brier score (0.136 [0.003]) than cross-sectional LR (0.689 [0.009] and 0.149 [0.003], respectively) and longitudinal LR (0.682 [0.007] and 0.150 [0.003], respectively) models. Using the RNN model, the samples with the mean (SD) highest 51% (1.5%) of HCC risk, in which 80% of all HCCs occurred, or the mean (SD) highest 66% (1.2%) of HCC risk, in which 90% of all HCCs occurred, could potentially be targeted. Among samples from patients who achieved sustained virologic response, the performance of the RNN models was even better (mean [SD] area under receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.806 [0.025]; mean [SD] Brier score, 0.117 [0.007]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, deep learning RNN models outperformed conventional LR models, suggesting that RNN models could be used to identify patients with HCV-related cirrhosis with a high risk of developing HCC for risk-based HCC outreach and surveillance strategies.

Impact of Safety-Net Burden on In-Hospital Mortality and Hospitalization Costs Among Patients with Alcoholic Hepatitis and Alcoholic Cirrhosis

Aims

Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) and alcoholic cirrhosis disproportionately affect ethnic minority and safety-net populations. We evaluate the impact of a hospital’s safety net burden (SNB) on in-hospital mortality and costs among patients with AH and alcoholic cirrhosis.

Methods

We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 2012–2016 National Inpatient Sample. SNB was calculated as percentage of hospitalizations with Medicaid or uninsured payer status. Associations between hospital SNB and in-hospital mortality and costs were evaluated with adjusted multivariable logistic regression and linear regression models.

Results

Among 21,898 AH-related hospitalizations, compared to low SNB hospitals (LBH), patients hospitalized in high SNB hospitals (HBH) were younger (44.4 y vs. 47.4 y, P &lt; 0.001) and more likely to be African American (11.3% vs. 7.7%, P &lt; 0.001) or Hispanic (15.4% vs. 8.4%, P &lt; 0.001). AH-related hospitalizations in HBH had a non-significant trend towards higher odds of mortality (OR 1.27, 95% CI 0.98–1.65, P = 0.07) and higher mean hospitalizations costs. Among 108,669 alcoholic cirrhosis-related hospitalizations, patients in HBH were younger (53.3 y vs. 55.8 y, P &lt; 0.001) and more likely to be African American (8.2% vs. 7.3%, P &lt; 0.001) or Hispanic (24.4% vs. 12.0%, P &lt; 0.001) compared to LBH. Compared to alcoholic cirrhosis-related hospitalizations in LBH, mortality was higher among medium SNB (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.03–1.17, P = 0.007) and HBH (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.00–1.15, P = 0.05). Mean hospitalization costs were not different by SNB status.

Conclusions

HBH hospitals predominantly serve ethnic minorities and underinsured/uninsured populations. The higher in-hospital mortality associated HBH particularly for alcoholic cirrhosis patients is alarming given its increasing burden in the USA.

The impact of SVR from direct-acting antiviral- and interferon-based treatments for HCV on hepatocellular carcinoma risk

We evaluated the effect of sustained virologic response (SVR) from direct-acting antiviral (DAA)- and interferon-based treatments on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in a large population-based cohort in Canada. We used data from the BC Hepatitis Testers Cohort, which includes ~1.3 million individuals tested for HCV since 1990, linked with healthcare administrative and registry datasets. Patients were followed from the end of HCV treatment to HCC, death or 31 December 2016. We assessed HCC risk among those who did and did not achieve SVR by treatment type using proportional hazard models. Of 12 776 eligible individuals, 3905 received DAAs while 8871 received interferon-based treatments, followed for a median of 1.0 [range: 0.6-2.7] and 7.9 [range: 4.4-17.1] years, respectively. A total of 3613 and 6575 achieved SVR with DAAs- and interferon-based treatments, respectively. Among DAAs-treated patients, HCC incidence rate was 6.9 (95%CI: 4.7-10.1)/1000 person yr (PY) in SVR group (HCC cases: 26) and 38.2 (95%CI: 20.6-71.0) in the no-SVR group (HCC cases: 10, P < .001). Among interferon-treated individuals, HCC incidence rate was 1.8 (95%CI: 1.5-2.2) in the SVR (HCC cases: 99) and 13.9 (95%CI: 12.3-15.8) in the no-SVR group (HCC cases: 239, P < .001). Compared with no-SVR from interferon, SVR from DAA- and interferon-based treatments resulted in significant reduction in HCC risk (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio (adjSHR) DAA = 0.30, 95%CI: 0.19-0.48 and adjSHR interferon = 0.2, 95%CI: 0.16-0.26). Among those with SVR, treatment with DAAs compared to interferon was not associated with HCC risk (adjSHR = 0.93, 95%CI: 0.51-1.71). In conclusion, similar to interferon era, DAA-related SVR is associated with 70% reduction in HCC risk.

Epidemiologic, humanistic and economic burden of hepatocellular carcinoma in the USA: a systematic literature review

AIM

To describe the epidemiologic, humanistic and economic burdens of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the USA.

MATERIALS & METHODS

Studies describing the epidemiology and economic burden from national cohorts, any economic models, or any humanistic burden studies published 2008-2018 were systematically searched.

RESULTS

HCC incidence was 9.5 per 100,000 person-years in most recent data, but was ∼100-times higher among patients with hepatitis/cirrhosis. Approximately a third of patients were diagnosed with advanced disease. Patients with HCC experienced poor quality of life. Direct costs were substantial and varied based on underlying demographics, disease stage and treatment received. Between 25-77% of patients did not receive surgical, locoregional or systemic treatment.

CONCLUSION

Better treatments are needed to extend survival and improve quality of life for patients with HCC.

Models for acute on chronic liver failure development and mortality in a veterans affairs cohort

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The diagnosis of acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) carries a high short-term mortality, making early identification of at-risk patients crucial. To date, there are no models that predict which patients with compensated cirrhosis will develop ACLF, and limited models exist to predict ACLF mortality. We sought to create novel risk prediction models using a large North American cohort.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of 75,922 patients with compensated cirrhosis from the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL) dataset. Using 70% derivation/30% validation sets, we identified ACLF patients using the Asian Pacific Association of Liver (APASL) definition. Multivariable logistic regression was used to derive prediction models (called VOCAL-Penn) for developing ACLF at 3, 6, and 12 months. We then created prediction models for ACLF mortality at 28 and 90 days.

RESULTS

The VOCAL-Penn models for ACLF development had very good discrimination [concordance (C) statistics of 0.93, 0.92, and 0.89 at 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively] and calibration. The mortality models also had good discrimination at 28 and 90 days (C statistics 0.89 and 0.88, respectively), outperforming the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-sodium, and the APASL ACLF Research Consortium ACLF scores.

CONCLUSION

We have developed novel tools for predicting development of ACLF in compensated cirrhosis patients, as well as for ACLF mortality. These tools may be used to proactively guide patient follow-up, prognostication, escalation of care, and transplant evaluation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for predicting development of APASL ACLF at 3 months (a), 6 months (b), and 1 year (c).

Survival benefit associated with early detection of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in veteran inpatients with cirrhotic ascites

Background

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is common in hospitalized cirrhotic patients with ascites and carries high mortality. This study aimed to determine whether early diagnostic paracentesis (EDP) <12 h of hospitalization conveys an intermediate‐term (6‐month) survival benefit in cirrhotic patients diagnosed with SBP.

Methods

Consecutive US veterans with cirrhosis diagnosed with SBP over 13 years at a single VA medical center were reviewed retrospectively. Kaplan‐Meyer analyses assessed the effects of EDP on survival.

Results

A total of 79 cirrhotic patients were diagnosed with SBP (61.8 ± 8.8 years, n = 77 male, n = 52 [66.8%] Caucasian, n = 23 [29.1%] African‐American). Underlying liver diseases included hepatitis c viral infection (HCV) (17.5%), alcohol (28.6%), alcohol and HCV (30.1%), and cryptogenic/metabolic (15.9%). Median baseline model for end‐stage liver disease (MELD) was 12 (range 6–34), and median MELD at presentation was 18. Seven subjects had a history of hepatocellular carcinoma (11.1%), and 26 (41.3%) presented with sepsis. Thirty‐three (52.4%) subjects died within 6 months after the SBP admission. Of the subjects, 41 (65.1%) underwent EDP, of which 23 (56.0%) survived at least 6 months, compared to only 7 of the 22 patients (31.8%) undergoing paracentesis >12 h from presentation (P = 0.057). The maximal benefit of EDP on survival was observed beyond days 14 and 30; at these time points, no statistical difference in mortality was discernable (P = 0.55 and 0.71). In a multivariate model including age, MELD at admission, hepatocellular cancer, and sepsis criteria, EDP (p 0.034) positively impacted patient survival at 6 months.

Conclusions

EDP is associated with improved 6‐month mortality in cirrhotic patients with ascites. In this veteran cohort, EDP was as important as MELD as a predictor of intermediate‐term survival.

Outcomes after hepatic encephalopathy in population-based cohorts of patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Hepatic encephalopathy is a devastating complication of cirrhosis.

AIM

To describe the outcomes after developing hepatic encephalopathy among contemporary, aging patients.

METHODS

We examined data for a 20% random sample of United States Medicare enrolees with cirrhosis and Part D prescription coverage from 2008 to 2014. Among 49 164 persons with hepatic encephalopathy, we evaluated the associations with transplant-free survival using Cox proportional hazard models with time-varying covariates (hazard ratios, HR) and incidence rate ratios (IRR) for healthcare utilisation measured in hospital-days and 30-day readmissions per person-year. We validated our findings in an external cohort of 2184 privately insured patients with complete laboratory values.

RESULTS

Hepatic encephalopathy was associated with median survivals of 0.95 and 2.5 years for those ≥65 or <65 years old and 1.1 versus 3.9 years for those with and without ascites. Non-alcoholic fatty-liver disease posed the highest adjusted risk of death among aetiologies, HR 1.07 95% CI (1.02, 1.12). Both gastroenterology consultation and rifaximin utilisation were associated with lower mortality, respective adjusted-HR 0.73 95% CI (0.67, 0.80) and 0.40 95% CI (0.39, 0.42). Thirty-day readmissions were fewer for patients seen by gastroenterologists (0.71 95% CI [0.57-0.88]) and taking rifaximin (0.18 95% CI [0.08-0.40]). Lactulose alone was associated with fewer hospital-days, IRR 0.31 95% CI (0.30-0.32), than rifaximin alone, 0.49 95% CI (0.45-0.53), but the optimal therapy combination was lactulose/rifaximin, IRR 0.28 95% CI (0.27-0.30). These findings were validated in the privately insured cohort adjusting for model for endstage liver disease-sodium score and serum albumin.

CONCLUSIONS

Hepatic encephalopathy remains morbid and associated with poor outcomes among contemporary patients. Gastroenterology consultation and combination lactulose-rifaximin are both associated with improved outcomes. These data inform the development of care coordination efforts for subjects with cirrhosis.

Physical activity compared to adiposity and risk of liver-related mortality: Results from two prospective, nationwide cohorts

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Obesity in adulthood has been associated with increased risk of liver-related mortality. Whether higher levels of physical activity counteract the excess risk conferred by obesity remains unknown. We simultaneously evaluated the long-term impact of physical activity and adiposity on liver-related mortality, within 2 nationwide populations.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study of 77,238 women and 48,026 men, with detailed, validated assessments of weekly physical activity (metabolic equivalent task [MET]-hours]), adiposity (body mass index [BMI], waist circumference), and diet, alcohol use and clinical comorbidities, biennially from 1986 through 2012. Using Cox proportional hazards regression models, we calculated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for liver-related mortality, including death from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and other complications of cirrhosis.

RESULTS

Over 1,856,226 person-years, we recorded 295 liver-related deaths (108 HCC; 187 cirrhosis). Risk of liver-related mortality increased monotonically with higher BMI during adulthood (ptrend<0.0001) and with weight gain during early adulthood (ptrend <0.0001). The risk of liver-related mortality also declined progressively, with increasing physical activity (ptrend = 0.0003); the aHRs across increasing physical activity quintiles were: 1.0, 0.70 (95% CI 0.51-0.96), 0.59 (95% CI 0.42-0.84), 0.52 (95% CI 0.36-0.74) and 0.46 (95% CI 0.31-0.66). Compared to lean-active adults (BMI <25; ≥18 MET-hours/week), the aHRs for obese-active, lean-sedentary, and obese-sedentary adults were: 1.04 (95% CI 0.73-1.37), 2.08 (95% CI 1.21-3.33) and 3.40 (95% CI 2.06-5.56), respectively. Findings were similar for HCC-specific and cirrhosis-specific mortality. Overall, engaging in average-pace walking for >3 hours/week could have prevented 25% of liver-related deaths (95% CI 0.12-0.38).

CONCLUSIONS

In 2 prospective, nationwide cohorts, both excess adiposity and reduced physical activity were significant predictors of liver-related mortality. Achieving higher physical activity levels counteracted the excess liver-related risks associated with obesity.

LAY SUMMARY

This is the first large, prospective cohort study to simultaneously evaluate the impact of obesity and physical activity on the long-term risk of liver-related mortality in 2 nationwide populations of American men and women. The study demonstrated that obesity predicted significantly increased risk of liver-related mortality, while physical activity predicted significantly lower risk of liver-related mortality. Importantly, the excess risk of liver-related mortality observed with obesity was no longer statistically significant among adults who engaged in the equivalent of average-pace walking for 3 hours or more, per week.

Impact of Alcohol Use Disorder Treatment on Clinical Outcomes Among Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Despite the significant medical and economic consequences of coexisting alcohol use disorder (AUD) in patients with cirrhosis, little is known about AUD treatment patterns and their impact on clinical outcomes in this population. We aimed to characterize the use of and outcomes associated with AUD treatment in patients with cirrhosis.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This retrospective cohort study included Veterans with cirrhosis who received Veterans Health Administration care and had an index diagnosis of AUD between 2011 and 2015. We assessed the baseline factors associated with AUD treatment (pharmacotherapy or behavioral therapy) and clinical outcomes for 180 days following the first AUD diagnosis code within the study time frame. Among 93,612 Veterans with cirrhosis, we identified 35,682 with AUD, after excluding 2,671 who had prior diagnoses of AUD and recent treatment. Over 180 days following the index diagnosis of AUD, 5,088 (14%) received AUD treatment, including 4,461 (12%) who received behavioral therapy alone, 159 (0.4%) who received pharmacotherapy alone, and 468 (1%) who received both behavioral therapy and pharmacotherapy. In adjusted analyses, behavioral and/or pharmacotherapy-based AUD treatment was associated with a significant reduction in incident hepatic decompensation (6.5% vs. 11.6%, adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.52, 0.76), a nonsignificant decrease in short-term all-cause mortality (2.6% vs. 3.9%, AOR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.57, 1.08), and a significant decrease in long-term all-cause mortality (51% vs. 58%, AOR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.80, 0.96).

CONCLUSIONS

Most Veterans with cirrhosis and coexisting AUD did not receive behavioral therapy or pharmacotherapy treatment for AUD over a 6-month follow-up. The reductions in hepatic decompensation and mortality suggest that future studies should focus on delivering evidence-based AUD treatments to patients with coexisting AUD and cirrhosis.

Epidemiological Trend of Sepsis in Patients with Hospital Admissions Related to Hepatitis C in Spain (2000-2015): A Nationwide Study

Background: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection predisposes patients to other infectious diseases, such as sepsis. We aimed to analyze epidemiological trends of sepsis-related admissions, deaths, and costs in hospital admissions with chronic hepatitis C who had a hospital admission in Spain. Methods: We performed a retrospective study of all hospitalizations involving chronic hepatitis C in the Spanish Minimum Basic Data Set (MBDS) between 2000 and 2015. This period was divided into four calendar periods (2000–2004, 2005–2007, 2008–2011, and 2012–2015). Results: We selected 868,523 hospital admissions of patients with chronic hepatitis C over 16 years in the Spanish MBDS. Among them, we found 70,976 (8.17%) hospital admissions of patients who developed sepsis, of which 13,915 (19.61%) died during admission. We found an upward trend, from 2000–2003 to 2012–2015, in the rate of sepsis-related admission (from 6.18% to 10.64%; p < 0.001), the risk of sepsis-related admission (from 1.31 to 1.55; p < 0.001), and the sepsis-related cost per hospital admission (from 7198€ to above 9497€; p < 0.001). However, we found a downward trend during the same study period in the sepsis case-fatality rate (from 21.99% to 18.16%; p < 0.001), the risk of sepsis-related death (from 0.81 to 0.56; p < 0.001), and the length of hospital stay (LOHS) (from 16.9 to 13.9; p < 0.001). Moreover, the rate of bacterial Gram-positive and candidiasis infections decreased, while Gram-negative microorganisms increased from 2000–2003 to 2012–2015. Conclusions: Sepsis, in chronic hepatitis C patients admitted to the hospital, has increased the period 2000–2015 and has been an increasing burden for the Spanish public health system. However, there has also been a significant reduction in lethality and LOHS during the study period. In addition, the most prevalent specific microorganisms have also changed in this period.

Epidemiological trend of hepatitis C-related liver events in Spain (2000-2015): A nationwide population-based study

OBJECTIVE

Analysis the epidemiological trends of hospital admissions, intra-hospital deaths, and costs related to chronic hepatitis C (CHC) taking into account four major clinical stages [compensated cirrhosis (CC), end-stage liver disease (ESLD), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver transplantation (LT)] in Spain.

METHODS

Retrospective study in patients with chronic hepatitis C and a hospital admission in the Spanish Minimum Basic Data Set from 2000 to 2015. Outcome variables were admission, death, length of hospital stay and costs.

RESULTS

A total of 868,523 hospital admissions with CHC (25.5% CC, 25.3% ESLD, 8.6% HCC, and 2.5% LT) were identified. Overall rates of admission and mortality increased from 2000-2003 to 2004-2007, but after 2008, these rates stabilized and/or decreased. An upward trend was found for hospitalization percentage in CC (from 22.3% to 30%; p < 0.001), ESLD (from 23.9% to 27.1%; p < 0.001), HCC (from 7.4% to 11%; p < 0.001), and LT (from 0.07% to 0.10%; p = 0.003). An upward trend was also found for case fatality rate, except in ESLD (p = 0.944). Gender and age influenced the evolution of hospitalization rates and mortality differently. The length of hospital stay showed a significant downward trend in all strata analyzed (p < 0.001). Cost per patient had a significant upward trend (p < 0.001), except in LT, and a decrease from 2008-2011 to 2012-2015 in CC (p = 0.025), HCC (p < 0.001), and LT (p = 0.050) was found.

CONCLUSION

The initial upward trend of the disease burden in CHC has changed from 2000 to 2015 in Spain, improving in many parameters after 2004-2007, particularly in the 2012-2015 calendar period.

Risk prediction scores for acute on chronic liver failure development and mortality

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) causes high short-term mortality in patients with previously stable chronic liver disease. To date there are no models to predict which patients are likely to develop ACLF, and existing models to predict ACLF mortality are based on limited cohorts. We sought to create novel risk prediction scores using a large cohort of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of 74 790 patients with incident cirrhosis in the Veterans Health Administration database using randomized 70% derivation/30% validation sets. ACLF events were identified per the European ACLF criteria. Multivariable logistic regression was used to derive prediction models for developing ACLF at 3, 6 and 12 months, and ACLF mortality at 28 and 90 days. Mortality models were compared to model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-sodium and the Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (CLIF-C) ACLF score.

RESULTS

Models for the developing ACLF had very good discrimination (concordance [C] statistics 0.83-0.87) at all timepoints. Models for ACLF mortality also had good discrimination at 28 and 90 days (C-statistics 0.79-0.82), and were superior to MELD, MELD-sodium and the CLIF-C ACLF score. The calibration of the novel models was excellent at all timepoints.

CONCLUSION

We have obtained highly-predictive models for developing ACLF, as well as for ACLF short-term mortality in a diverse United States cohort. These may be used to identify outpatients at significant risk of ACLF, which may prompt closer follow-up or early transplant referral, and facilitate decision making for patients with diagnosed ACLF, including escalation of care, expedited transplant evaluation or palliation.

The association between etiology of hepatocellular carcinoma and race-ethnicity in Florida

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has risen considerably in the US since 1980. The main causes include metabolic disorders (NAFLD, diabetes, obesity, metabolic syndrome), alcohol-related disease (ALD) and hepatitis C and B virus infections (HCV, HBV). Etiology-specific HCC incidence rates by detailed race-ethnicity are needed to improve HCC control and prevention efforts.

METHODS

All HCC cases diagnosed in Florida during 2014-2015 were linked to statewide hospital discharge data to determine etiology. Age-specific and age-adjusted rates were used to assess the intersection between etiology and detailed racial-ethnicities, including White, African American, Afro-Caribbean, Asian, Cuban, Puerto Rican and Continental Hispanic (Mexican, South and Central American).

RESULTS

Of 3666 HCC cases, 2594 matched with discharge data. HCV was the leading cause of HCC among men and women (50% and 43% respectively), followed by metabolic disorders (25% and 37%) and ALD (16% and 9%). Puerto Rican and African American men had the highest HCV-HCC rates, 7.9 and 6.3 per 100 000 respectively. Age-specific rates for HCV-HCC peaked among baby boomers (those born in 1945-1965). Metabolic-HCC rates were highest among populations above age 70 and among Continental Hispanics. Afro-Caribbean men had high rates of HBV-HCC, whereas Puerto Rican men had high ALD-HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

HCC etiology is associated with specific race/ethnicity. While HCV-related HCC rates are projected to decrease soon, HCC will continue to affect Hispanics disproportionately, based on higher rates of metabolic-HCC (and ALD-HCC) among Continental Hispanics, who demographically represent 80% of all US Hispanics. Multifaceted approaches for HCC control and prevention are needed.

MELD-GRAIL-Na: Glomerular Filtration Rate and Mortality on Liver-Transplant Waiting List

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Among patients with cirrhosis awaiting liver transplantation, prediction of wait-list (WL) mortality is adjudicated by the Model for End Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) score. Replacing serum creatinine (SCr) with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in the MELD-Na score may improve prediction of WL mortality, especially for women and highest disease severity.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We developed (2014) and validated (2015) a model incorporating eGFR using national data (n = 17,095) to predict WL mortality. Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was estimated using the GFR assessment in liver disease (GRAIL) developed among patients with cirrhosis. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis models were used to compare the predicted 90-day WL mortality between MELD-GRAIL-Na (re-estimated bilirubin, international normalized ratio [INR], sodium, and GRAIL) versus MELD-Na. Within 3 months, 27.8% were transplanted, 4.3% died on the WL, and 4.7% were delisted for other reasons. GFR as estimated by GRAIL (hazard ratio [HR] 0.382, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.344-0.424) and the re-estimated model MELD-GRAIL-Na (HR 1.212, 95% CI 1.199-1.224) were significant predictors of mortality or being delisted on the WL within 3 months. MELD-GRAIL-Na was a better predictor of observed mortality at highest deciles of disease severity (≥ 27-40). For a score of 32 or higher (observed mortality 0.68), predicted mortality was 0.67 (MELD-GRAIL-Na) and 0.51 (MELD-Na). For women, a score of 32 or higher (observed mortality 0.67), the predicted mortality was 0.69 (MELD-GRAIL-Na) and 0.55 (MELD-Na). In 2015, use of MELD-GRAIL-Na as compared with MELD-Na resulted in reclassification of 16.7% (n = 672) of patients on the WL.

CONCLUSION

Incorporation of eGFR likely captures true GFR better than SCr, especially among women. Incorporation of MELD-GRAIL-Na instead of MELD-Na may affect outcomes for 12%-17% awaiting transplant and affect organ allocation.

Integrated Model for Patient-Centered Advanced Liver Disease Care

Advanced liver disease (AdvLD) is a high-risk common condition with a progressive, highly morbid, and often fatal course. Despite effective treatments, there are substantial shortfalls in access to and use of evidence-based supportive and palliative care for AdvLD. Although patient-centered, chronic illness models that integrate early supportive and palliative care with curative treatments hold promise, there are several knowledge gaps that hinder development of an integrated model for AdvLD. We review these evidence gaps. We also describe a conceptual framework for a patient-centered approach that explicates key elements needed to improve integrated care. An integrated model of AdvLD would allow clinicians, patients, and caregivers to work collaboratively to identify treatments and other healthcare that best align with patients' priorities.

A Telephone and Mail Outreach Program Successfully Increases Uptake of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer‐related death worldwide. Society guidelines recommend surveillance with abdominal ultrasound with or without serum alpha‐fetoprotein every 6 months for adults at increased risk of developing HCC. However, adherence is often suboptimal. We assessed the feasibility of a coordinated telephone outreach program for unscreened patients with cirrhosis within the Veteran’s Affairs (VA) health care system. Using a patient care dashboard of advanced chronic liver disease in the VA Greater Los Angeles Healthcare System, we identified veterans with a diagnosis of cirrhosis, a platelet count ≤ 150,000/uL, and no documented HCC surveillance in the previous 8 months. Eligible veterans received a telephone call from a patient navigator to describe the risks and benefits of HCC surveillance. Orders for an abdominal ultrasound and alpha‐fetoprotein were placed for veterans who agreed to surveillance. Veterans who were not reached by telephone received an informational letter by mail to encourage participation. Of the 129 veterans who met the eligibility criteria, most were male (96.9%). The most common etiology for cirrhosis was hepatitis C (64.3%), and most of the patients had compensated cirrhosis (68.2%). The patient navigators reached 32.5% of patients by phone. Patients in each group were similar across clinical and demographic characteristics. Patients who were called were more likely to undergo surveillance (adjusted odds ratio = 2.56, 95% confidence interval: 1.03‐6.33). Most of the patients (72.1%) completed abdominal imaging when reached by phone. Conclusion: Targeted outreach increased uptake of HCC surveillance among patients with cirrhosis in a large, integrated, VA health care system.

Do Nutritional Interventions Improve the Outcomes of Patients with Cirrhosis and Ascites: A Systematic Review of Randomized Trials

Purpose of review

Ascites is a common, morbid complication of cirrhosis. Nutritional interventions such as sodium-restriction and high-protein diet are considered standard of care. However, their evidence base is limited. We performed a systematic review of randomized trials of nutritional interventions for ascites.

Recent findings

Increasing consumption of calories and protein alone was ineffective. Studies reached contradictory conclusions regarding sodium restriction in patients taking combination diuretics. Intravenous amino acid infusion alone did not improve outcomes, peripheral parenteral nutrition did not improve outcomes except alone but reduced mortality in conjunction with branched-chain amino acid evening snack.

Summary

Patients may benefit from sodium restriction and a protein-rich evening snack. Future trials should prioritize standardizing nutritional targets and tailoring interventions to the specific needs of patients including the socioeconomic factors impacting adherence.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Mechanisms Associated with Chronic HCV Infection and the Impact of Direct-Acting Antiviral Treatment

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is the major risk factor for liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The mechanisms of HCC initiation, growth, and metastasis appear to be highly complex due to the decade-long interactions between the virus, immune system, and overlapping bystander effects of host metabolic liver disease. The lack of a readily accessible animal model system for HCV is a significant obstacle to understand the mechanisms of viral carcinogenesis. Traditionally, the primary prevention strategy of HCC has been to eliminate infection by antiviral therapy. The success of virus elimination by antiviral treatment is determined by the SVR when the HCV is no longer detectable in serum. Interferon-alpha (IFN-α) and its analogs, pegylated IFN-α (PEG-IFN-α) alone with ribavirin (RBV), have been the primary antiviral treatment of HCV for many years with a low cure rate. The cloning and sequencing of HCV have allowed the development of cell culture models, which accelerated antiviral drug discovery. It resulted in the selection of highly effective direct-acting antiviral (DAA)-based combination therapy that now offers incredible success in curing HCV infection in more than 95% of all patients, including those with cirrhosis. However, several emerging recent publications claim that patients who have liver cirrhosis at the time of DAAs treatment face the risk of HCC occurrence and recurrence after viral cure. This remains a substantial challenge while addressing the long-term benefit of antiviral medicine. The host-related mechanisms that drive the risk of HCC in the absence of the virus are unknown. This review describes the multifaceted mechanisms that create a tumorigenic environment during chronic HCV infection. In addition to the potential oncogenic programming that drives HCC after viral clearance by DAAs, the current status of a biomarker development for early prediction of cirrhosis regression and HCC detection post viral treatment is discussed. Since DAAs treatment does not provide full protection against reinfection or viral transmission to other individuals, the recent studies for a vaccine development are also reviewed.

Trends in the Burden of Chronic Liver Disease Among Hospitalized US Adults

Importance

One factor associated with the rapidly increasing clinical and economic burden of chronic liver disease (CLD) is inpatient health care utilization.

Objective

To understand trends in the hospitalization burden of CLD in the US.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study of hospitalized adults in the US used data from the National Inpatient Sample from 2012 to 2016 on adult CLD-related hospitalizations. Data were analyzed from June to October 2019.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hospitalizations identified using a comprehensive review of CLD-specific International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification and International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Survey-weighted annual trends in national estimates of CLD-related hospitalizations, in-hospital mortality, and hospitalization costs, stratified by demographic and clinical characteristics.

Results

This study included 1 016 743 CLD-related hospitalizations (mean [SD] patient age, 57.4 [14.4] years; 582 197 [57.3%] male; 633 082 [62.3%] white). From 2012 to 2016, the rate of CLD-related hospitalizations per 100 000 hospitalizations increased from 3056 (95% CI, 3042-3069) to 3757 (95% CI, 3742-3772), and total inpatient hospitalization costs increased from $14.9 billion (95% CI, $13.9 billion to $15.9 billion) to $18.8 billion (95% CI, $17.6 billion to $20.0 billion). Mean (SD) patient age increased (56.8 [14.2] years in 2012 to 57.8 [14.6] years in 2016) and, subsequently, the proportion with Medicare also increased (41.7% [95% CI, 41.1%-42.2%] to 43.6% [95% CI, 43.1%-44.1%]) (P for trend < .001 for both). The proportion of hospitalizations of patients with hepatitis C virus was similar throughout the period of study (31.6% [95% CI, 31.3%-31.9%]), and the proportion with alcoholic cirrhosis and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease showed increases. The mortality rate was higher among hospitalizations with alcoholic cirrhosis (11.9% [95% CI, 11.7%-12.0%]) compared with other etiologies. Presence of hepatocellular carcinoma was also associated with a high mortality rate (9.8% [95% CI, 9.5%-10.1%]). Cost burden increased across all etiologies, with a higher total cost burden among hospitalizations with alcoholic cirrhosis ($22.7 billion [95% CI, $22.1 billion to $23.2 billion]) or hepatitis C virus ($22.6 billion [95% CI, $22.1 billion to $23.2 billion]). Presence of cirrhosis, complications of cirrhosis, and comorbidities added to the CLD burden.

Conclusions and Relevance

Over the study period, the total estimated national hospitalization costs in patients with CLD reached $81.1 billion. The inpatient CLD burden in the US is likely increasing because of an aging CLD population with increases in concomitant comorbid conditions.

Real-world study on clinical outcomes of nucleos(t)ide analogues antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B

Nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) are widely used for antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), but real-world data on treatment patterns and long-term clinical outcomes are not always available. Using data from electronic medical records between January 2011 and December 2016 in Shanghai, China, we evaluated patient characteristics, treatment patterns and clinical outcomes in patients with CHB. There were 6688 patients in the study cohort. The incidences of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were 41.0‰ and 6.8‰ person-years, respectively. There were more cirrhosis and HCC cases among patients who had shorter NA treatment duration (<365 days), or who were less compliant (<80%). In addition, increased risk of cirrhosis and HCC was observed in patients who did not achieve hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss/seroconversion. Moreover, patients with cirrhosis developed after antiviral treatments had a higher incidence of HCC (adjusted hazard ratio 15.86, 95% confidence interval 7.35–34.24). Good compliance with treatment and longer treatment duration significantly decreased the risk of developing cirrhosis and HCC. HBsAg loss seemed to be a protective factor for cirrhosis/HCC in NAs-treated patients with CHB, and cirrhosis was a confirmed risk factor for HCC development as expected.

Hepatitis C Care Continuum in a Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Positive Cohort: Data From the HIV Atlanta Veterans Affairs Cohort Study

Background

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection is associated with accelerated progression to cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and liver-associated death. It is fortunate that curative direct-acting antivirals for the treatment of HCV are widely available in the VA healthcare system. We attempted to identify, evaluate, and treat all HIV/HCV-coinfected persons at the Atlanta VA Healthcare System.

Methods

Human immunodeficiency virus/HCV-coinfected persons at Atlanta VA between 2015 and 2018 were identified using the HIV Atlanta Veterans Affairs Cohort Study and Hepatitis C VA Clinical Case Registry. Retrospective reviews of each electronic medical record were conducted by the hepatitis C clinical team for validation. The primary end point was achieving sustained virologic response.

Results

One hundred thirty-eight veterans with HIV and hepatitis C viremia were identified. One hundred twenty-five (90%) were evaluated for treatment and 113 (91%) were initiated on direct-acting antiviral therapy. Median age at initiation of treatment was 60 years and the majority were black race (90%). Genotype 1a was most common (70%) and 41% had compensated cirrhosis. One hundred eight completed treatment and 96% achieved sustained virologic response. Six veterans had virologic relapse; 4 had treatment-emergent resistance mutations in the NS5a gene. Mean CD4 was 580 cells/mm³ with HIV viral suppression in 82% of the cohort. In those not treated, unstable housing (25%), active substance use (31%), and psychiatric conditions (42%) were identified barriers to care.

Conclusions

Through a concerted, systematic effort, over 80% of HIV/hepatitis C persons in the Atlanta VA have been initiated on treatment for hepatitis C, 96% of which have been cured.

The global, regional, and national burden of cirrhosis by cause in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (collectively referred to as cirrhosis in this paper) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, although the burden and underlying causes differ across locations and demographic groups. We report on results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 on the burden of cirrhosis and its trends since 1990, by cause, sex, and age, for 195 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from vital registrations, vital registration samples, and verbal autopsies to estimate mortality. We modelled prevalence of total, compensated, and decompensated cirrhosis on the basis of hospital and claims data. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. Estimates are presented as numbers and age-standardised or age-specific rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). All estimates are presented for five causes of cirrhosis: hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol-related liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and other causes. We compared mortality, prevalence, and DALY estimates with those expected according to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as a proxy for the development status of regions and countries.

FINDINGS

In 2017, cirrhosis caused more than 1·32 million (95% UI 1·27-1·45) deaths (440 000 [416 000-518 000; 33·3%] in females and 883 000 [838 000-967 000; 66·7%] in males) globally, compared with less than 899 000 (829 000-948 000) deaths in 1990. Deaths due to cirrhosis constituted 2·4% (2·3-2·6) of total deaths globally in 2017 compared with 1·9% (1·8-2·0) in 1990. Despite an increase in the number of deaths, the age-standardised death rate decreased from 21·0 (19·2-22·3) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 16·5 (15·8-18·1) per 100 000 population in 2017. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardised death rate among GBD super-regions for all years of the study period (32·2 [25·8-38·6] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017), and the high-income super-region had the lowest (10·1 [9·8-10·5] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017). The age-standardised death rate decreased or remained constant from 1990 to 2017 in all GBD regions except eastern Europe and central Asia, where the age-standardised death rate increased, primarily due to increases in alcohol-related liver disease prevalence. At the national level, the age-standardised death rate of cirrhosis was lowest in Singapore in 2017 (3·7 [3·3-4·0] per 100 000 in 2017) and highest in Egypt in all years since 1990 (103·3 [64·4-133·4] per 100 000 in 2017). There were 10·6 million (10·3-10·9) prevalent cases of decompensated cirrhosis and 112 million (107-119) prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis globally in 2017. There was a significant increase in age-standardised prevalence rate of decompensated cirrhosis between 1990 and 2017. Cirrhosis caused by NASH had a steady age-standardised death rate throughout the study period, whereas the other four causes showed declines in age-standardised death rate. The age-standardised prevalence of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH increased more than for any other cause of cirrhosis (by 33·2% for compensated cirrhosis and 54·8% for decompensated cirrhosis) over the study period. From 1990 to 2017, the number of prevalent cases more than doubled for compensated cirrhosis due to NASH and more than tripled for decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH. In 2017, age-standardised death and DALY rates were lower among countries and territories with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

Cirrhosis imposes a substantial health burden on many countries and this burden has increased at the global level since 1990, partly due to population growth and ageing. Although the age-standardised death and DALY rates of cirrhosis decreased from 1990 to 2017, numbers of deaths and DALYs and the proportion of all global deaths due to cirrhosis increased. Despite the availability of effective interventions for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis B and C, they were still the main causes of cirrhosis burden worldwide, particularly in low-income countries. The impact of hepatitis B and C is expected to be attenuated and overtaken by that of NASH in the near future. Cost-effective interventions are required to continue the prevention and treatment of viral hepatitis, and to achieve early diagnosis and prevention of cirrhosis due to alcohol-related liver disease and NASH.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Validation of a hierarchical algorithm to define chronic liver disease and cirrhosis etiology in administrative healthcare data

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Chronic liver disease (CLD) and cirrhosis are leading causes of death globally with the burden of disease rising significantly over the past several decades. Defining the etiology of liver disease is important for understanding liver disease epidemiology, healthcare planning, and outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a hierarchical algorithm for CLD and cirrhosis etiology in administrative healthcare data.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with CLD or cirrhosis attending an outpatient hepatology clinic in Ontario, Canada from 05/01/2013-08/31/2013 underwent detailed chart abstraction. Gold standard liver disease etiology was determined by an attending hepatologist as hepatitis C (HCV), hepatitis B (HBV), alcohol-related, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/cryptogenic, autoimmune or hemochromatosis. Individual data was linked to routinely collected administrative healthcare data at ICES. Diagnostic accuracy of a hierarchical algorithm incorporating both laboratory and administrative codes to define etiology was evaluated by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV), and kappa's agreement.

RESULTS

442 individuals underwent chart abstraction (median age 53 years, 53% cirrhosis, 45% HCV, 26% NAFLD, 10% alcohol-related). In patients with cirrhosis, the algorithm had adequate sensitivity/PPV (>75%) and excellent specificity/NPV (>90%) for all etiologies. In those without cirrhosis, the algorithm was excellent for all etiologies except for hemochromatosis and autoimmune diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

A hierarchical algorithm incorporating laboratory and administrative coding can accurately define cirrhosis etiology in routinely collected healthcare data. These results should facilitate health services research in this growing patient population.