Trends in burden of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma by underlying liver disease in US veterans, 2001-2013

SACRED: Effect of simvastatin on hepatic decompensation and death in subjects with high-risk compensated cirrhosis: Statins and Cirrhosis: Reducing Events of Decompensation

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The development of decompensation in cirrhosis demarcates a marked change in the natural history of chronic liver disease. HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) exert pleiotropic effects that reduce inflammation and fibrosis as well as improve vascular reactivity. Retrospective studies uniformly have associated statin utilization with improved outcomes for patients with cirrhosis. Prospective human studies have shown that statins reduce portal hypertension and reduce death in patients with decompensated cirrhosis after variceal hemorrhage when added to standard therapy with an acceptable safety profile. This proposal aims to extend these findings to demonstrate that simvastatin reduces incident hepatic decompensation events among cirrhotic patients at high risk for hepatic decompensation.

METHODS

We will perform the SACRED Trial (NCT03654053), a phase III, prospective, multi-center, double-blind, randomized clinical trial at 11 VA Medical Centers. Patients with compensated cirrhosis with clinically significant portal hypertension will be stratified based upon the concomitant use of nonselective beta-blockers and randomized to simvastatin 40 mg/day versus placebo for up to 24 months. Patients will be observed for the development of hepatic decompensation (variceal hemorrhage, ascites, encephalopathy), hepatocellular carcinoma, liver-related death, death from any cause, and/or complications of statin therapy. Ancillary studies will evaluate patient-reported outcomes and pharmacogenetic corollaries of safety and/or efficacy.

CONCLUSION

Statins have a long track-record of safety and tolerability. This class of medications is generic and inexpensive, and thus, if the hypothesis is proven, there will be few barriers to widespread acceptance of the role of statins to prevent decompensation in patients with compensated cirrhosis. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03654053.

Frailty Is a Risk Factor for Postoperative Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis Undergoing Diverse Major Surgeries

With a rising burden of cirrhosis surgeries, understanding risk factors for postoperative mortality is more salient than ever. The role of baseline frailty has not been assessed in this context. We evaluated the association between patient frailty and postoperative risk among diverse patients with cirrhosis and determined if frailty improves prognostication of cirrhosis surgical risk scores. This was a retrospective cohort study of U.S. veterans with cirrhosis identified between 2008 and 2016 who underwent nontransplant major surgery. Frailty was ascertained using the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS). Cox regression analysis was used to investigate the impact of patient frailty on postoperative mortality. Logistic regression was used to identify incremental changes in discrimination for postoperative mortality when frailty was added to the risk prediction models, including the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Mayo Risk Score (MRS), and Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated With Liver Disease (VOCAL)-Penn. A total of 804 cirrhosis surgeries were identified. The majority of patients (48.5%) had high-risk frailty at baseline (HFRS >15). In adjusted Cox regression models, categories of increasing frailty scores were associated with poorer postoperative survival. For example, intermediate-risk frailty (HFRS 5-15) conferred a 1.77-fold increased hazard relative to low-risk frailty (HFRS, <5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-2.95; P = 0.03). High-risk frailty demonstrated a similarly increased hazard (hazard ratio, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.05-2.88; P = 0.03), suggesting a threshold effect of frailty on postoperative mortality. The incorporation of frailty improved discrimination of MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP for postoperative mortality, but did not do so for the MRS or VOCAL-Penn score. Patient frailty was an additional important predictor of cirrhosis surgical risk. The incorporation of preoperative frailty assessments may help to risk stratify patients, especially in settings where the MELD-Na and CTP are commonly applied.

The role of a two-assay serological testing strategy for anti-HCV screening in low-prevalence populations

HCV screening depends mainly on a one-assay anti-HCV testing strategy that is subject to an increased false-positive rate in low-prevalence populations. In this study, a two-assay anti-HCV testing strategy was applied to screen HCV infection in two groups, labelled group one (76,442 people) and group two (18,415 people), using Elecsys electrochemiluminescence (ECL) and an Architect chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay (CMIA), respectively. Each anti-HCV-reactive serum was retested with the other assay. A recombinant immunoblot assay (RIBA) and HCV RNA testing were performed to confirm anti-HCV positivity or active HCV infection. In group one, 516 specimens were reactive in the ECL screening, of which CMIA retesting showed that 363 (70.3%) were anti-HCV reactive (327 positive, 30 indeterminate, 6 negative by RIBA; 191 HCV RNA positive), but 153 (29.7%) were not anti-HCV reactive (4 positive, 29 indeterminate, 120 negative by RIBA; none HCV RNA positive). The two-assay strategy significantly improved the positive predictive value (PPV, 64.1% & 90.1%, P < 0.05). In group two, 87 serum specimens were reactive according to CMIA screening. ECL showed that 56 (70.3%) were anti-HCV reactive (47 positive, 8 indeterminate, 1 negative by RIBA; 29 HCV RNA positive) and 31 (29.7%) were anti-HCV non-reactive (25 negative, 5 indeterminate, 1 positive by RIBA; none HCV RNA positive). Again, the PPV was significantly increased (55.2% & 83.9%, P < 0.05). Compared with a one-assay testing strategy, the two-assay testing strategy may significantly reduce false positives in anti-HCV testing and identify inactive HCV infection in low-seroprevalence populations.

Emotion regulation and experiential avoidance moderate the association between posttraumatic symptoms and alcohol use disorder among Israeli combat veterans

INTRODUCTION

the association between Posttraumatic Stress symptoms (PTSS) and Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) among combat veterans is well established. However, little is known concerning the intertwining effect of distress oriented coping mechanisms on this association. In this study, we sought to explore the moderating role of experiential avoidance (EA), cognitive reappraisal (CR) and expressive suppression (ES) on the association between PTSS and AUD among Israeli combat veterans.

METHOD

Participants were 189 Israel Defense Forces (IDF) male combat veterans (mean age = 30.03) who completed a set of validated self-report questionnaires assessing PTSS, AUD, EA, CR and ES. Moderation analyses were conducted using a four-step hierarchical regression analysis and an ordinary least squares regression analysis.

RESULTS

Analyses indicated that individuals with average or high levels of EA or ES exhibited significant positive association between PTSS and AUD, yet those with low levels of EA or ES exhibited no significant association between PTSS and AUD (b = 0.14,Confidence Interval (CI)[0.06, 0.22, SE = 0.04, t = 3.65, p = .000, 95%] for EA and b = 0.17, CI[0.07, 0.25, SE = 0.04, t = 3.69, p = .000, 95%] for ES). In addition, CR moderated the association between PTSS and AUD (b = 0.18, CI[0.07, 0.29, SE = 0.06, t = 3.24, p = .001, 95%]), so that the association between PTSS and AUD is positive and stronger for higher levels of CR.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings imply that EA, ES and CR and emotion regulation may be major facilitators of the association between PTSS and AUD among combat veterans. These findings are discussed in the Israeli context as well as in light of a general psychological perspective.

Excellent Safety and Sustained Virologic Response to Direct-Acting Antivirals Treatment in HCV-Infected Geriatric Patients: A Real-World Data

BACKGROUND

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are current standard of HCV treatment (Rx). However, data remain lacking on real-world safety, patterns of biochemical, virologic responses, and sustained virologic response (SVR12) rate in geriatric patients.

AIMS

The present study assessed clinical presentation, safety, SVR12 rate, dynamic changes in HCV RNA, ALT, and AFP in geriatric patients (age ≥ 65 year old, G1) versus non-geriatric patients (G2) with chronic hepatitis C and received DAA treatment.

METHODS

This was a single-center, retrospective study on 183 patients with DAA Rx and 12-week post-Rx follow-up.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences in patterns of biochemical and virologic responses between the two groups. Undetectable HCV RNA rates were 67.2% versus 75.7% (p = 0.22) and 77.3% versus 84.3% (p = 0.24) at Rx week 2 and Rx week 4, respectively. The SVR12 rate was comparable in 2 groups, 94.1% (G1) versus 95.7% (G2, p = 0.64). ALT normalization rates were 91.2% versus 91.3% (p = 0.98), 92.6% versus 93.9% (p = 0.74), and 97.1% versus 97.4% (p = 0.89) at Rx week 2, post-Rx week12, and post-Rx week 24, respectively. AFP normalization was lower in G1 with 89.7% versus 95.7% (p = 0.12), 77.9% versus 87.8% (p = 0.08), and 79.4% versus 92.2% (p = 0.01), at Rx week 2, and post-Rx week 12, and post-Rx week 24, respectively. Both groups showed similar side effects profile including fatigue 11.8% versus 12.2% (p = 0.93) and headache 11.8% versus 13.9% (p = 0.68).

CONCLUSION

Based on our real-world data, geriatric patients had excellent and comparable treatment outcomes with non-geriatric patients in safety and SVR12 rates to different DAA regimens.

The Predictive Role of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Lactate and Lactate Clearance for In-Hospital Mortality Among a National Cirrhosis Cohort

The burden of cirrhosis hospitalizations is increasing. The admission Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-lactate (MELD-lactate) was recently demonstrated to be a superior predictor of in-hospital mortality compared with MELD in limited cohorts. We identified specific classes of hospitalizations where MELD-lactate may be especially useful and evaluated the predictive role of lactate clearance. This was a retrospective cohort study of 1036 cirrhosis hospitalizations for gastrointestinal bleeding, infection, or other portal hypertension-related indications in the Veterans Health Administration where MELD-lactate was measured on admission. Performance characteristics for in-hospital mortality were compared between MELD-lactate and MELD/MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), with stratified analyses of MELD categories (≤15, >15 to <25, ≥25) and reason for admission. We also incorporated day 3 lactate levels into modeling and tested for an interaction between day 1 MELD-lactate and day 3 lactate clearance. MELD-lactate had superior discrimination for in-hospital mortality compared with MELD or MELD-Na (area under the curve [AUC] 0.789 versus 0.776 versus 0.760, respectively; P < 0.001) and superior calibration. MELD-lactate had higher discrimination among hospitalizations with MELD ≤15 (AUC 0.763 versus 0.608 for MELD, global P = 0.01) and hospitalizations for infection (AUC 0.791 versus 0.674 for MELD, global P < 0.001). We found a significant interaction between day 1 MELD-lactate and day 3 lactate clearance; heat maps were created as clinical tools to risk-stratify patients based on these clinical data. MELD-lactate had significantly superior performance in predicting in-hospital mortality among patients hospitalized for infection and/or with MELD ≤15 when compared with MELD or MELD-Na. Incorporating day 3 lactate clearance may further improve prognostication.

No difference in hepatocellular carcinoma risk between chronic hepatitis B patients treated with entecavir versus tenofovir

OBJECTIVE

Entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) are first-line agents for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Recent studies have challenged the assumption that these agents are equally effective at preventing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to determine whether the risk of HCC and mortality differ in patients with CHB treated with ETV and TDF.

DESIGN

We performed a retrospective cohort study of Veterans Affairs patients with CHB in the USA who initiated treatment with ETV or TDF between the dates of Food and Drug Administration approval of these medications and 1 January 2017. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to determine the association between antiviral therapy and HCC risk as well as the risk of death or liver transplantation. Propensity score adjustment and competing risks analysis were performed.

RESULTS

We identified 2193 ETV-treated and 1094 TDF-treated patients who were followed for a mean of 5.4 years. We found no difference in the risk of HCC in ETV-treated versus TDF-treated patients (adjusted HR (aHR) 1.00, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.32). Results were similar in propensity score adjusted and competing risks analysis, and in multiple sensitivity analyses. We also found no difference in the risk of death or liver transplantation (aHR 1.16, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.39).

CONCLUSIONS

We found no difference in the risk of HCC between patients with CHB treated with ETV versus TDF. Our results support current guideline recommendations that both agents are appropriate first-line options for the treatment of CHB.

Alcohol-associated Cirrhosis and Alcoholic Hepatitis Hospitalization Trends in the United States

GOALS

The goals of this study were to evaluate trends in hospitalizations and in-hospital mortality among US adults with alcohol-associated cirrhosis and alcoholic hepatitis.

BACKGROUND

Alcohol-associated liver disease contributes to significant liver-related morbidity in the United States, among which inpatient care is a major driver of clinical and economic burden.

METHODS

Using the 2007-2014 National Inpatient Sample, alcohol-associated cirrhosis and alcoholic hepatitis hospitalizations were identified. Survey-weighted annual hospitalization trends were stratified by sex, race/ethnicity, and age and compared using χ2 and Student's t-test methods. Adjusted multivariate logistic regression models evaluated predictors of in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

Among 159,973 alcohol-associated liver disease hospitalizations, 83.7% had a primary diagnosis of alcohol-associated cirrhosis and 18.4% had a primary diagnosis of alcoholic hepatitis. Sex-specific differences in hospitalizations emerged, with significantly higher hospitalization rates seen in males versus females among both alcoholic hepatitis [incidence rate ratio=3.71, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.47-4.01, P<0.01] and alcohol-associated cirrhosis (incidence rate ratio=2.68, 95% CI: 2.21-3.71, P<0.01). Differences in hospitalization and mortality by ethnicity were observed for both alcohol-associated cirrhosis and alcoholic hepatitis. African Americans with alcohol-associated cirrhosis had significantly higher in-hospital mortality compared with non-Hispanic whites [odds ratio (OR)=1.13, 95% CI: 1.04-1.24, P<0.01], whereas Native Americans (OR=1.88, 95% CI: 1.06-3.34, P=0.030) and Asian/Pacific Islanders (OR=2.02, 95% CI: 1.00-4.06, P=0.048) with alcoholic hepatitis had significantly higher in-hospital mortality compared with non-Hispanic whites.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated increasing alcohol-associated cirrhosis and alcoholic hepatitis hospitalizations in the United States. The highest rates were observed in men and among Native American and Hispanic ethnic minorities. Significant ethnicity-specific disparities in mortality were observed.

Molecular Mechanisms Linking Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis to Cancer

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NAFLD and MAFLD as emerging causes of HCC: A populational study

Background & Aims

There are conflicting data regarding the epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) arising in the context of non-alcoholic and metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (NAFLD and MAFLD). We aimed to examine the changing contribution of NAFLD and MAFLD, stratified by sex, in a well-defined geographical area and highly characterised HCC population between 1990 and 2014.

Methods

We identified all patients with HCC resident in the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, diagnosed between 1990 and 2014 from the prospective Geneva Cancer Registry and assessed aetiology-specific age-standardised incidence. NAFLD-HCC was diagnosed when other causes of liver disease were excluded in cases with type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome, or obesity. Criteria for MAFLD included one or more of the following criteria: overweight/obesity, presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, or evidence of metabolic dysregulation.

Results

A total of 76/920 (8.3%) of patients were diagnosed with NAFLD-HCC in the canton of Geneva between 1990 and 2014. Between the time periods 1990–1994 and 2010–2014, there was a significant increase in HCC incidence in women (standardised incidence ratio [SIR] 1.83, 95% CI 1.08–3.13, p = 0.026) but not in men (SIR 1.10, 95% CI 0.85–1.43, p = 0.468). In the same timeframe, the proportion of NAFLD-HCC increased more in women (0–29%, p = 0.037) than in men (2–12%, p = 0.010) while the proportion of MAFLD increased from 21% to 68% in both sexes and from 7% to 67% in women (p <0.001). From 2000–2004 to 2010–2014, the SIR of NAFLD-HCC increased to 1.92 (95% CI 0.77–5.08) for men and 12.7 (95% CI 1.63–545) in women, whereas it decreased or remained stable for other major aetiologies of HCC.

Conclusions

In a populational cohort spanning 25 years, the burden of NAFLD and MAFLD associated HCCs increased significantly, driving an increase in HCC incidence, particularly in women.

Lay summary

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common type of liver cancer, increasingly arising in patients with liver disease caused by metabolic syndrome, termed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) or metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). We assessed all patients with HCC between 1990 and 2014 in the canton of Geneva (western Switzerland) and found an increase in all HCC cases in this timeframe, particularly in women. In addition, we found that HCC caused by NAFLD or MAFLD significantly increased over the years, particularly in women, possibly driving the increase in overall HCC cases.

•

The burden of HCC arising in the context of non-alcoholic and metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (NAFLD and MAFLD) remains unclear.

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We assessed all HCC cases between 1990 and 2014 in an area of western Switzerland.

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We found a significant increase in overall HCC incidence in women but not in men.

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The proportion of NAFLD- and MAFLD-HCC increased in both sexes, particularly in women.

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Liver function of MAFLD patients was intermediate between ‘pure’ NAFLD and non-MAFLD individuals.

Patient Frailty Is Independently Associated With the Risk of Hospitalization for Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

There is significant interest in identifying risk factors associated with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). In transplant candidates, frailty predicts wait-list mortality and posttransplant outcomes. However, the impact of frailty on ACLF development and mortality is unknown. This was a retrospective study of US veterans with cirrhosis identified between 2008 and 2016. First hospitalizations were characterized as ACLF or non-ACLF admissions. Prehospitalization patient frailty was ascertained using a validated score based on administrative coding data. We used logistic regression to investigate the impact of an increasing frailty score on the odds of ACLF hospitalization and short-term ACLF mortality. Cox regression was used to analyze the association between frailty and longterm survival from hospitalization. We identified 16,561 cirrhosis hospitalizations over a median follow-up of 4.19 years (interquartile range, 2.47-6.34 years). In adjusted models, increasing frailty score was associated with significantly increased odds of ACLF hospitalization versus non-ACLF hospitalization (odds ratio, 1.03 per point; 95% CI 1.02-1.03; P < 0.001). By contrast, frailty score was not associated with ACLF 28- or 90-day mortality (P = 0.13 and P = 0.33, respectively). In an adjusted Cox analysis of all hospitalizations, increasing frailty scores were associated with poorer longterm survival from the time of hospitalization (hazard ratio, 1.02 per 5 points; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.03; P = 0.004). Frailty increases the likelihood of ACLF hospitalization among patients with cirrhosis, but it does not impact short-term ACLF mortality. These findings have implications for clinicians caring for frail outpatients with cirrhosis, including tailored follow-up, risk mitigation strategies, and possible expedited transplant evaluation.

Mortality and Hepatic Decompensation in Patients With Cirrhosis and Atrial Fibrillation Treated With Anticoagulation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Outcomes with anticoagulation (AC) are understudied in advanced liver disease. We investigated effects of AC with warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) on all-cause mortality and hepatic decompensation as well as ischemic stroke, major adverse cardiovascular events, splanchnic vein thrombosis, and bleeding in a cohort with cirrhosis and atrial fibrillation (AF).

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This was a retrospective, longitudinal study using national data of U.S. veterans with cirrhosis at 128 medical centers, including patients with cirrhosis with incident AF, from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2017 followed through December 31, 2018. To assess the effects of AC on outcomes, we applied propensity score (PS) matching and marginal structural models (MSMs) to account for confounding by indication and time-dependent confounding. The final cohort included 2,694 veterans with cirrhosis with AF (n = 1,694 and n = 704 in the warfarin and DOAC cohorts after PS matching, respectively) with a median of 4.6 years of follow-up. All-cause mortality was lower with warfarin versus no AC (PS matched: hazard ratio [HR], 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55-0.76; MSM models: HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.40-0.73) and DOACs versus no AC (PS matched: HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.50-0.93; MSM models: HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.31-0.81). In MSM models, warfarin (HR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.09-0.90) and DOACs (HR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.07-0.79) were associated with reduced ischemic stroke. In secondary analyses, bleeding was lower with DOACs compared to warfarin (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26-0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Warfarin and DOACs were associated with reduced all-cause mortality. Warfarin was associated with more bleeding compared to no AC. DOACs had a lower incidence of bleeding compared to warfarin in exploratory analyses. Future studies should prospectively investigate these observed associations.

Risk Prediction Models for Post-Operative Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis are at increased risk of postoperative mortality. Currently available tools to predict postoperative risk are suboptimally calibrated and do not account for surgery type. Our objective was to use population-level data to derive and internally validate cirrhosis surgical risk models.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL) cohort, which contains granular data on patients with cirrhosis from 128 U.S. medical centers, merged with the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) to identify surgical procedures. We categorized surgeries as abdominal wall, vascular, abdominal, cardiac, chest, or orthopedic and used multivariable logistic regression to model 30-, 90-, and 180-day postoperative mortality (VOCAL-Penn models). We compared model discrimination and calibration of VOCAL-Penn to the Mayo Risk Score (MRS), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium MELD-Na, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores. We identified 4,712 surgical procedures in 3,785 patients with cirrhosis. The VOCAL-Penn models were derived and internally validated with excellent discrimination (30-day postoperative mortality C-statistic = 0.859; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.809-0.909). Predictors included age, preoperative albumin, platelet count, bilirubin, surgery category, emergency indication, fatty liver disease, American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, and obesity. Model performance was superior to MELD, MELD-Na, CTP, and MRS at all time points (e.g., 30-day postoperative mortality C-statistic for MRS = 0.766; 95% CI, 0.676-0.855) in terms of discrimination and calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

The VOCAL-Penn models substantially improve postoperative mortality predictions in patients with cirrhosis. These models may be applied in practice to improve preoperative risk stratification and optimize patient selection for surgical procedures (www.vocalpennscore.com).

Older Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Are Less Knowledgeable About Survivorship Issues: Outcomes from a Survey-based Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

As the incidence and survival for hepatocellular carcinoma increase, the number of patients having been treated for liver cancer would be expected to increase as well. Little is known about the experience of the survivors of hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

The authors conducted a 3-tool survey of hepatocellular carcinoma survivors at a large, academic, and tertiary referral medical center to assess potential areas of disparities in the survivorship experience. The instruments aimed to assess knowledge of survivorship issues (Perceived Efficacy in Patient-Physician Interactions Questionnaire-1), preparedness for the survivorship experience (Perceived Efficacy in Patient-Physician Interactions Questionnaire-2), and self-efficacy in procuring medical information while navigating the patient-provider relationship (Perceived Efficacy in Patient-Physician Interactions Questionnaire). The authors compared mean test scores for each instrument, with higher scores indicating a more positive response, by patient characteristics and used s linear regression model to examine associations between sociodemographics and survey scores.

RESULTS

In total, 110 patients took at least 1 survey. In the multiple linear regression model, the authors found that for every increase in patient age by 10 years, knowledge of survivorship issues decreased by a total score of 1.3 (P=0.02). In this model, the authors found no significant differences between male and female respondents, English and non-English speakers, and liver transplant recipients and nonliver transplant recipients. Survivors who had completed a 4-year college degree had significantly higher knowledge of survivorship issues than those who did not use χ testing, but this finding did not maintain significance in the multiple linear regression model.

CONCLUSIONS

In a population of 110 ethnically diverse hepatocellular carcinoma survivors, the authors found older patients had gaps in knowledge of survivorship issues. Particular attention should be paid to older populations during liver cancer treatment.

The Role of Advanced Practice Providers in the Care of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common liver disease in the United States. NAFLD presents unique challenges to conventional health care delivery. Patients require accurate, efficient risk stratification to both individualize clinical management plans and optimize subspecialty resource allocation The hepatology workforce is grossly outmatched by the demand for NAFLD referrals, however. Advanced practice providers (APPs) may be best suited to meeting the challenges of NAFLD care. This article reviews the nature and scope of APP practice, the specific needs posed by NAFLD, and the evidence supporting the comparative advantages of APPs in optimizing the outcomes of patients with NAFLD. Our goal is to show how APPs are uniquely suited to addressing the needs of patients with NAFLD who are seen in hepatology practice, with an emphasis on training philosophy and behavioral intervention.

Ribavirin Improves NK Cell IFNγ Response During Sofosbuvir-based DAA Therapy in CV-infected Liver Transplant Recipients

BACKGROUND

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is characterized by activation of natural killer (NK) cells. Here, we asked whether HCV-elimination by sofosbuvir-based direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) and addition of RBV improves NK cell function in liver transplant (LTx) recipients.

METHODS

We analyzed NK cell degranulation and IFNγ-response along with STAT-1 and STAT-4 phosphorylation in 29 HCV-infected LTx-recipients and 17 HCV-infected patients during DAA-treatment.

RESULTS

Compared to uninfected LTx-recipients, NK cells from HCV-infected LTx-recipients were polarized towards cytotoxicity with increased CD107a-degranulation (10.1% vs 14.6%; P=0.0263) and reduced capacity to produce IFNγ (43.0% vs 26.7%; P=0.0002). The altered phenotype of NK cells in HCV-infected LTx-recipients was accompanied by increased STAT-1 (44.6% vs 87.4%; P<0.0001) and STAT-1 phosphorylation (0.7% vs 8.9%; P=0.0005) compared to pSTAT-4 IFNα-induction (29.9% vs 17.6%; P=0.0014). Successful DAA-therapy did not affect CD107a-degranulation, but decreased STAT-1. RBV cotreatment with DAA-therapy for HCV increased CD56Bright NK cell IFNγ-responses in LTx-recipients (70.9% vs 89.2%; P=0.002) and this correlated to an increase in the inducibility of pSTAT-4 (MFI 157 vs 173; P=0.0002).

CONCLUSION

RBV cotreatment of HCV-infection improved pSTAT4-dependent IFNγ-production in NK cells. This is relevant especially for immunocompromised patients such as LTx-recipients or patients with end-stage liver disease.

Outcomes of cholecystectomy in US veterans with cirrhosis: Predicting outcomes using nomogram

BACKGROUND

This study examines the outcomes of open and laparoscopic cholecystectomy (OC/LC) in veterans with cirrhosis and develops a nomogram to predict outcomes.

METHODS

We analyzed the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program to identify all patients with cirrhosis and ascites who underwent cholecystectomy from 2008 to 2015. Univariate and multivariate regression were used to identify predictors of morbidity and mortality. A predictive nomogram was constructed and internally validated.

RESULTS

A total of 349 patients were identified. Overall, complications occurred in 18.7% of patients, and mortality was 3.8%. LC was performed in 58.9%, and 19.2% were preformed emergently. Overall, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score was an independent factor of morbidity and mortality, while laparoscopic approach had a protective effect on morbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

Although cholecystectomy is a high-risk operation in cirrhotic veterans, LC may have favorable outcomes than OC in selected patients. An easy-to-use nomogram to predict morbidity and mortality for cirrhotic patients undergoing cholecystectomy is proposed.

Personalized surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis - using machine learning adapted to HCV status

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Refining hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance programs requires improved individual risk prediction. Thus, we aimed to develop algorithms based on machine learning approaches to predict the risk of HCC more accurately in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis, according to their virological status.

METHODS

Patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV-related cirrhosis from the French ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort were included in a semi-annual HCC surveillance program. Three prognostic models for HCC occurrence were built, using (i) Fine-Gray regression as a benchmark, (ii) single decision tree (DT), and (iii) random survival forest for competing risks survival (RSF). Model performance was evaluated from C-indexes validated externally in the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort (n = 668 enrolled between 08/2012-01/2014).

RESULTS

Out of 836 patients analyzed, 156 (19%) developed HCC and 434 (52%) achieved sustained virological response (SVR) (median follow-up 63 months). Fine-Gray regression models identified 6 independent predictors of HCC occurrence in patients before SVR (past excessive alcohol intake, genotype 1, elevated AFP and GGT, low platelet count and albuminemia) and 3 in patients after SVR (elevated AST, low platelet count and shorter prothrombin time). DT analysis confirmed these associations but revealed more complex interactions, yielding 8 patient groups with varying cancer risks and predictors depending on SVR achievement. On RSF analysis, the most important predictors of HCC varied by SVR status (non-SVR: platelet count, GGT, AFP and albuminemia; SVR: prothrombin time, ALT, age and platelet count). Externally validated C-indexes before/after SVR were 0.64/0.64 [Fine-Gray], 0.60/62 [DT] and 0.71/0.70 [RSF].

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factors for hepatocarcinogenesis differ according to SVR status. Machine learning algorithms can refine HCC risk assessment by revealing complex interactions between cancer predictors. Such approaches could be used to develop more cost-effective tailored surveillance programs.

LAY SUMMARY

Patients with HCV-related cirrhosis must be included in liver cancer surveillance programs, which rely on ultrasound examination every 6 months. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening is hampered by sensitivity issues, leading to late cancer diagnoses in a substantial number of patients. Refining surveillance periodicity and modality using more sophisticated imaging techniques such as MRI may only be cost-effective in patients with the highest HCC incidence. Herein, we demonstrate how machine learning algorithms (i.e. data-driven mathematical models to make predictions or decisions), can refine individualized risk prediction.

Molecular subtyping of hepatocellular carcinoma: A step toward precision medicine

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most prevalent and fatal digestive tumors. Treatment for this disease has been constraint by heterogeneity of this group of tumors, which has greatly limited the progress in personalized therapy. Although existing studies have revealed the genetic and epigenetic blueprints that drive HCCs, many of the molecular mechanisms that lead to HCCs remain elusive. Recent advances in techniques for studying functional genomics, such as genome sequencing and transcriptomic analyses, have led to the discovery of molecular mechanisms that participate in the initiation and evolution of HCC. Integrative multi-omics analyses have identified several molecular subtypes of HCC associated with specific molecular characteristics and clinical outcomes. Deciphering similar molecular features among highly heterogeneous HCC patients is a prerequisite to implementation of personalized therapeutics. This review summarizes the current research progresses in precision therapy on the backbone of molecular subtypes of HCC.

Ferritin as a key risk factor for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in children with obesity

Background

The association between serum ferritin and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in children with obesity is not clear. This study was designed to investigate whether serum ferritin can be an independent predictor for NAFLD.

Methods

According to the hepatic ultrasound results, a total of 347 children with obesity were enrolled in this study. Among them, 95 patients with NAFLD and 95 without NAFLD were matched for gender, age, blood pressure and body mass index, the odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of ferritin and the risk of NAFLD were analyzed.

Results

After propensity score matching, ferritin values of the patients with NAFLD were significantly higher than those without NAFLD group. Alanine aminotransferase and ferritin were strongly associated with NAFLD in multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis. The medium and high levels of ferritin increased risk of NAFLD, and the adjusted ORs were 3.298 (95% CI:1.326‐8.204), 7.322 (95% CI:2.725‐19.574) across the ferritin concentration tertiles after adjustment for confounders. Ferritin was shown to be the best predictor for NAFLD with sensitivity and specificity of 60.0% and 77.9%, respectively, area under the curve was 0.733.

Conclusion

The results show that serum ferritin can usefully be considered as a predictor of NAFLD in children with obesity.

Risk Factors, Pathogenesis, and Strategies for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prevention: Emphasis on Secondary Prevention and Its Translational Challenges

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-associated mortality globally. Given the limited therapeutic efficacy in advanced HCC, prevention of HCC carcinogenesis could serve as an effective strategy. Patients with chronic fibrosis due to viral or metabolic etiologies are at a high risk of developing HCC. Primary prevention seeks to eliminate cancer predisposing risk factors while tertiary prevention aims to prevent HCC recurrence. Secondary prevention targets patients with baseline chronic liver disease. Various epidemiological and experimental studies have identified candidates for secondary prevention-both etiology-specific and generic prevention strategies-including statins, aspirin, and anti-diabetic drugs. The introduction of multi-cell based omics analysis along with better characterization of the hepatic microenvironment will further facilitate the identification of targets for prevention. In this review, we will summarize HCC risk factors, pathogenesis, and discuss strategies of HCC prevention. We will focus on secondary prevention and also discuss current challenges in translating experimental work into clinical practice.

The Use of Administrative Data to Investigate the Population Burden of Hepatic Encephalopathy

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a devastating complication of cirrhosis with an increasing footprint in global public health. Although the condition is defined using a careful history and examination, we cannot accurately measure the true impact of HE relying on data collected exclusively from clinical studies. For this reason, administrative data sources are necessary to study the population burden of HE. Administrative data is generated with each health care encounter to account for health care resource utilization and is extracted into a dataset for the secondary purpose of research. In order to utilize such data for valid analysis, several pitfalls must be avoided—specifically, selecting the particular database capable of meeting the needs of the study’s aims, paying careful attention to the limits of each given database, and ensuring validity of case definition for HE specific to the dataset. In this review, we summarize the types of data available for and the results of administrative data studies of HE.

Cognitive Tests and Stool Frequency at Hospital Discharge Do Not Predict Outcomes in Hepatic Encephalopathy

OBJECTIVES

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is associated with hospital readmissions and mortality. We sought to determine whether cognitive testing and stool frequency at discharge predicted 30-day readmission or death in cirrhotic patients admitted with overt HE.

METHODS

We approached consecutive inpatients with cirrhosis and overt HE when they were within 48 hours of discharge. Patients underwent cognitive tests, including Psychometric Hepatic Encephalopathy Score (PHES), and stool frequency was documented. Chart review identified Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-sodium (MELD-Na) and the presence of non-HE extrahepatic organ failures. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate predictors of time to the primary composite outcome of hospital readmission for HE or death within 30 days, censoring for liver transplantation.

RESULTS

Of 51 patients consented and enrolled, 14 patients met the primary composite outcome. In unadjusted Cox models, 4 variables predicted HE readmission or death: MELD-Na (hazard ratio [HR] 1.10 [1.01-1.20], P = 0.03), respiratory failure (HR 4.26 [1.47-12.35], P = 0.008), total number of HE extrahepatic organ failures (HR 1.79 [1.12-2.88], P = 0.02), and score on a PHES subtest, Number Connection Test A (per 30 seconds; HR 1.25 [1.06-1.47], P = 0.01). PHES and 24-hour stool frequency did not predict the primary outcome. When controlling for MELD-Na, respiratory failure predicted the primary outcome (HR 3.67 [1.24-10.86], P = 0.02).

CONCLUSION

Cognitive testing and stool frequency at discharge did not predict poor outcomes in patients admitted with HE, while respiratory failure appeared to be a strong predictor.

Natural History of Cirrhosis: Changing Trends in Etiology Over the Years

BACKGROUND AND GOALS

The aims of the present study were to investigate the natural history of cirrhosis and to determine trends in the etiology of cirrhosis.

METHODS

Between January 2001 and January 2018, a total of 1,341 patients had been diagnosed with cirrhosis and were included.

RESULTS

A total of 898 cirrhotic patients, who were followed up for at least 6 months were included into the analysis. The median age was 54 years. The median Child-Pugh and MELD scores were 7.5 and 11, respectively. Ascites (51%) was the most common causes of decompensation. Chronic viral hepatitis was the most frequent cause of cirrhosis (58%). Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection was the main etiology (34%), followed by hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection (18%). Among 129 patients with cryptogenic cirrhosis (CC), 60 had metabolic abnormalities. If these 60 patients with CC were considered to have nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-related cirrhosis, the proportion of NAFLD-related cirrhosis increased from 1.8 to 8.0%. At admission, 74 patients (8%) had been diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A new HCC developed in 80 patients during the follow-up period. The probability of developing HCC was 3.9% at 12 months. Logistic regression analysis showed that the development of HCC was significantly associated with older age (p < 0.001), male gender (p < 0.001), viral etiology (p = 0.026), and baseline high aspartate aminotransferase level (p = 0.01). Overall, 104 cirrhotic patients died.

CONCLUSION

HBV and HCV remain the leading causes of etiology in cirrhosis and HCC. However, NAFLD-related cirrhosis is recognized as a growing burden.

Development, Validation, and Evaluation of a Simple Machine Learning Model to Predict Cirrhosis Mortality

Importance

Machine-learning algorithms offer better predictive accuracy than traditional prognostic models but are too complex and opaque for clinical use.

Objective

To compare different machine learning methods in predicting overall mortality in cirrhosis and to use machine learning to select easily scored clinical variables for a novel cirrhosis prognostic model.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prognostic study used a retrospective cohort of adult patients with cirrhosis or its complications seen in 130 hospitals and affiliated ambulatory clinics in the integrated, national Veterans Affairs health care system from October 1, 2011, to September 30, 2015. Patients were followed up through December 31, 2018. Data were analyzed from October 1, 2017, to May 31, 2020.

Exposures

Potential predictors included demographic characteristics; liver disease etiology, severity, and complications; use of health care resources; comorbid conditions; and comprehensive laboratory and medication data. Patients were randomly selected for model development (66.7%) and validation (33.3%). Three different statistical and machine learning methods were evaluated: gradient descent boosting, logistic regression with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regularization, and logistic regression with LASSO constrained to select no more than 10 predictors (partial pathway model). Predictor inclusion and model performance were evaluated in a 5-fold cross-validation. Last, the predictors identified in the most parsimonious (the partial path) model were refit using maximum-likelihood estimation (Cirrhosis Mortality Model [CiMM]), and its predictive performance was compared with that of the widely used Model for End Stage Liver Disease with sodium (MELD-Na) score.

Main Outcomes and Measures

All-cause mortality.

Results

Of the 107 939 patients with cirrhosis (mean [SD] age, 62.7 [9.6] years; 96.6% male; 66.3% white, 18.4% African American), the annual mortality rate ranged from 8.8% to 15.3%. In total, 32.7% of patients died within 3 years, and 46.2% died within 5 years after the index date. Models predicting 1-year mortality had good discrimination for the gradient descent boosting (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC], 0.81; 95% CI, 0.80-0.82), logistic regression with LASSO regularization (AUC, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.77-0.79), and the partial path logistic model (AUC, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.76-0.78). All models showed good calibration. The final CiMM model with machine learning-derived clinical variables offered significantly better discrimination than the MELD-Na score, with AUCs of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.77-0.79) vs 0.67 (95% CI, 0.66-0.68) for 1-year mortality, respectively (DeLong z = 17.00; P < .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, simple machine learning techniques performed as well as the more advanced ensemble gradient boosting. Using the clinical variables identified from simple machine learning in a cirrhosis mortality model produced a new score more transparent than machine learning and more predictive than the MELD-Na score.

Noninvasive imaging assessment of portal hypertension

Portal hypertension (PH) is a spectrum of complications of chronic liver disease (CLD) and cirrhosis, with manifestations including ascites, gastroesophageal varices, splenomegaly, hypersplenism, hepatic hydrothorax, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatopulmonary syndrome and portopulmonary hypertension. PH can vary in severity and is diagnosed via invasive hepatic venous pressure gradient measurement (HVPG), which is considered the reference standard. Accurate diagnosis of PH and assessment of severity are highly relevant as patients with clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) are at higher risk for developing acute variceal bleeding and mortality. In this review, we discuss current and upcoming noninvasive imaging methods for diagnosis and assessment of severity of PH.

Clinical heterogeneity in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease-associated hepatocellular carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

The indisputable increase in nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) prevalence (25% of population) has consequently led to an increase in Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) and liver-related mortality worldwide. The characteristics of patients with HCC, secondary to NAFLD, are older age, large tumors due to late diagnosis, often without cirrhosis and high prevalence of the metabolic syndrome components, leading to an increased mortality rate. Although the mechanisms of disease remain partially obscure, insulin resistance, oxidative stress, apoptosis, iron overload, and excessive local and systemic inflammation are identified as culprits for hepatocarcinogenesis in the presence of NAFLD.

AREA COVERED

In this review, the authors report that there are no uniform guidelines for surveillance and early diagnosis in this patient group. Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging is generally applicable to HCC due to NAFLD and management depends on liver function, tumor characteristics, and cardiovascular comorbidity. Evidence suggests that HCC due to NAFLD can be associated with worse survival due to late diagnosis.

EXPERT OPINION

The need for effective early diagnosis and management of NAFLD is urgent, considering the galloping incidence of the obesity and the fact that liver cirrhosis and HCC due to NAFLD will become the first indication for liver transplantation in foreseeable future.

Newer second-line glucose-lowering drugs versus thiazolidinediones on cirrhosis risk among older US adult patients with type 2 diabetes

AIMS

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) accelerates progression of chronic liver disease to cirrhosis, yet the effects of most glucose-lowering drugs (GLDs) on cirrhosis risk in T2D are unknown. To address this gap, we compared cirrhosis risk following initiation of newer second-line GLDs vs. thiazolidinediones (TZDs), which improve histology in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using the US Medicare Fee-for-Service database (2007-2015) and an active comparator, new-user design, we estimated crude incidence rates (IRs) and propensity-score adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for incident cirrhosis, comparing newer GLDs (dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1RA), and sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i)) vs. TZDs.

RESULTS

Among 239,549 total initiators, we observed 318, 151, and < 30 cirrhosis events when comparing DPP4i vs. TZD, GLP1RA vs. TZD, and SGLT2i vs. TZD, respectively. IRs ranged from 1.7 [95% CI, 0.8-3.6] to 3.6 [2.5-5.2] events per 1000 person-years. Point aHR estimates for cirrhosis were elevated among newer GLD initiators vs. TZD (DPP4i: 1.15 [0.89-1.50]; GLP1RA: 1.34 [0.82-2.20]; SGLT2i: 1.16, [0.44-3.08]), although estimates were imprecise due to short durations of drug exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed mildly elevated cirrhosis risk with newer GLDs vs. TZD; however, uncertainty remains due to imprecise and statistically non-significant effect estimates.

Changes in the Global Burden of Chronic Liver Diseases From 2012 to 2017: The Growing Impact of NAFLD

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) are main causes of chronic liver disease. We assessed the global incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) related to chronic liver disease (primary liver cancer [LC] and cirrhosis).

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We obtained data from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study. In 2017, there were 2.14 million liver-related deaths (2.06-2.30 million), representing an 11.4% increase since 2012 (16.0% increase in LC deaths; 8.7% increase in cirrhosis deaths). LC and cirrhosis accounted for 38.3% and 61.7%, respectively, of liver deaths (LC and cirrhosis deaths were related to HBV [39% and 29%], HCV [29% and 26%], ALD [16% and 25%], and NAFLD [8% and 9%]). Between 2012 and 2017, age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and age-standardized DALY rate increased for LC from 11.1 to 11.8, 10.1 to 10.2, and 250.4 to 253.6 per 100,000, respectively. Although age-standardized incidence rate for cirrhosis increased from 66.0 to 66.3, ASDR and age-standardized DALY rate decreased from 17.1 to 16.5 and 532.9 to 510.7, respectively. The largest increase in ASDR for LC occurred in Eastern Europe (annual percent change [APC] = 2.18% [0.89%-3.49%]), whereas the largest decrease occurred in high-income Asia Pacific (APC = -2.88% [-3.58 to -2.18%]). ASDR for LC-NAFLD and ALD increased annually by 1.42% (1.00%-1.83%) and 0.53% (0.08-0.89), respectively, whereas there were no increases for HBV (P = 0.224) and HCV (P = 0.054). ASDR for cirrhosis-NAFLD increased (APC = 0.29% [0.01%-0.59%]) but decreased for ALD (APC = -0.44% [-0.78% to -0.40%]), HCV (APC = -0.50% [-0.81% to -0.18%]), and HBV (APC = -1.43% [-1.71% to -0.40%]).

CONCLUSIONS

From 2012 to 2017, the global burden of LC and cirrhosis has increased. Viral hepatitis remains the most common cause of liver deaths, and NAFLD is the most rapidly growing contributor to liver mortality and morbidity.

Contemporary Epidemiology of Chronic Liver Disease and Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Accurate estimates for the contemporary burden of chronic liver disease (CLD) are vital for setting clinical, research, and policy priorities. We aimed to review the incidence, prevalence, and mortality of CLD and its resulting complications, including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

We reviewed the published literature on the incidence, prevalence, trends of various etiologies of CLD and its resulting complications. In addition, we provided updated data from the Centers for Disease Control and Global Burden of Disease Study on the morbidity and mortality of CLD, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Lastly, we assessed the strengths and weaknesses of available sources of data in hopes of providing important context to these national estimates of cirrhosis burden.

RESULTS

An estimated 1.5 billion persons have CLD worldwide and the age-standardized incidence of CLD and cirrhosis is 20.7/100,000, a 13% increase since 2000. Similarly, cirrhosis prevalence and mortality has increased in recent years in the United States. The epidemiology of CLD is shifting, reflecting implementation of large-scale hepatitis B vaccination and hepatitis C treatment programs, the increasing prevalence of the metabolic syndrome, and increasing alcohol misuse.

CONCLUSIONS

The global burden of CLD and cirrhosis is substantial. Although vaccination, screening, and antiviral treatment campaigns for hepatitis B and C have reduced the CLD burden in some parts of the world, concomitant increases in injection drug use, alcohol misuse, and metabolic syndrome threaten these trends. Ongoing efforts to address CLD-related morbidity and mortality require accurate contemporary estimates of epidemiology and outcomes.

Carbohydrate Sulfotransferase 4 Inhibits the Progression of Hepatitis B Virus-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Is a Potential Prognostic Marker in Several Tumors

Carbohydrate sulfotransferase 4 (CHST4) plays an important role in lymphocyte homing and is abnormally expressed in several cancer types; however, its precise function in tumor development and progression is unknown. Here we confirm that CHST4 is aberrantly expressed in various tumor subtypes. In particular, we found that CHST4 expression was downregulated in hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HBV-HCC) tumors compared to paired normal tissue. We also showed that CHST4 overexpression inhibited the proliferation and metastasis of HCC cells in vitro. Clinically, CHST4 was identified as an independent prognostic factor for HBV-HCC patients. We further illuminated the anti-tumor role and mechanism of CHST4 in HBV-HCC by constructing a FENDRR–miR-10b-5p–CHST4 competing endogenous RNA network. We found that downregulation of CHST4 expression may promote HBV expression and regulate ribonucleoprotein complex biogenesis to promote malignant behaviors in HBV-HCC. CHST4 may also recruit CD4+ T cells, macrophages, dendritic cells, and neutrophils into the tumor microenvironment to inhibit the progression of HBV-HCC. Overall, our findings suggest that CHST4 acts as a tumor suppressor in HCC-HBV and represents a potential diagnostic and therapeutic target.

Observational and Genetic Associations of Body Mass Index and Hepatobiliary Diseases in a Relatively Lean Chinese Population

IMPORTANCE

There is some support for the existence of genetic associations between adiposity and certain hepatobiliary diseases in Western populations. However, there is little evidence of such genetic associations in China, where the causes of these diseases may differ from those in Western populations and the mean body mass index (BMI) is much lower.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the observational associations of BMI with hepatobiliary diseases and liver biomarkers with the genetic associations between BMI and these factors and to assess whether the genetic associations of BMI with liver diseases differed by hepatitis B virus infection status.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study used data from the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank, including 473 938 adults aged 30 to 79 years without hepatobiliary diseases at baseline from 10 diverse areas in China from June 25, 2004, to July 15, 2008. A random sample of 75 736 participants with genotyping data was included in the Mendelian randomization analysis. Follow-up was completed January 1, 2017 (median [interquartile range] length of follow-up, 10.2 [9.2-11.1] years). Data were analyzed from January to October 2019.

EXPOSURES

Measured BMI obtained during the baseline survey and genetically instrumented BMI derived using 92 single-nucleotide variations.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incident cases of hepatobiliary diseases, liver enzymes, fatty liver index, and fibrosis score.

RESULTS

Among 473 938 individuals (276 041 [58.2%] women), the mean (SD) age was 52 (10.9) years and mean (SD) BMI was 23.8 (3.4). Baseline BMI was associated with higher risks of chronic liver disease (adjusted risk ratio per 1-SD increase, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.17) and gallbladder disease (adjusted risk ratio per 1-SD increase, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.27 to 1.31), with heterogeneity by disease subtype (P < .001). Genetically instrumented BMI was associated with higher risks of chronic liver disease (risk ratio per 1-SD increase, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.08 to 2.24) and gallbladder disease (risk ratio per 1-SD increase, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.76), with no heterogeneity between subtypes. A meta-analysis of the genetic associations in China Kadoorie Biobank and those calculated in UK Biobank gave a risk ratio of 1.55 (95% CI, 1.30 to 1.84) for chronic liver disease and 1.42 (95% CI, 1.22 to 1.64) for gallbladder disease. In the China Kadoorie Biobank study, there were positive genetic associations of BMI with liver enzymes, steatosis, and fibrosis scores, consistent with observational associations. The genetic associations of BMI with liver diseases and biomarkers did not differ by hepatitis B virus infection status.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study of a relatively lean Chinese population, there were positive genetic associations of BMI with hepatobiliary diseases. These results suggest that maintaining a healthy weight through diet and physical activity may help prevent hepatobiliary diseases.

Survival Benefit of Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

In the United States, nearly 30% of liver transplants (LT) are performed for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although overall long-term survival is highest with LT, there are limited data on the incremental survival benefit of LT versus other curative options (resection or ablation) due to shunting of patients towards LT.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients aged 50-69 with cirrhosis and HCC in the Veterans Health Administration (population enriched with 3 curative treatments) from 2008 to 2016. The cohort was restricted to patients who received LT, resection, or ablation and a calculated model for end-stage liver disease score <15 at HCC diagnosis.

RESULTS

Among 2129 veterans in the analytic cohort, 658 (26.7%) received LT, 244 (11.5%) underwent resection, and 1317 (61.59%) received ablation. In multivariable models, patients who underwent resection (hazard ratio: 5.42; 95% confidence interval: 4.15-7.08) or ablation (hazard ratio: 5.50; 95% confidence interval: 4.51-6.71) had significantly increased hazards of death. However, in absolute terms, the incremental survival benefit of LT over resection or ablation was small, between 0.02 and 0.03 years at 1 year, 0.32-0.42 years at 3 years, and 1.04-1.24 years at 5 years follow-up. These results were consistent in sensitivity analyses accounting for possible immortal time bias, as well as a cohort restricted to early/intermediate stage HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Although LT is associated with significantly increased survival compared to resection and ablation, the absolute incremental survival benefit is small over a 5-year time horizon. Optimal selection of patients for LT is critical for maximizing utilization of a scarce resource.

Utilization of hepatitis C viremic donors for liver transplant recipients without hepatitis C. A veterans transplant center report

BACKGROUND

We report our experience utilizing liver donors with HCV Viremia (RNA+) for HCV-negative recipients (HCV D+R-) at a Veterans Affairs (VA) transplant center.

METHODS

In 2018, we introduced an informed consent process for HCV D+R- liver transplants.

RESULTS

Eight HCV D+R- liver transplants (LT) were performed. Median time from listing to LT was 189 days (range 41-511). Median MELD at LT was 23.5 (median MELD at LT of 31 for center). All recipients developed HCV viremia after transplant. Median time to DAA initiation was 10 days after viremia (range 3-25). After transplant, the DAAs used were Mavyret in five recipients and Epclusa in three, all for 12 weeks. All eight patients completed DAA therapy and achieved negative HCV RNA by end of therapy (ETR) and seven reached sustained virologic response (SVR) by 12 weeks after end of therapy. One patient died from chronic ischemic encephalopathy after ETR, before SVR.

CONCLUSIONS

HCV D+R- is a practical strategy to expand the pool of donor organs. It shortened waiting time, allowing patients to receive transplants at lower MELD scores. VA liver transplant programs have provided universal and timely access to post-transplant HCV DAA therapy after donor-derived infection.

Nutrition Parameters for Assessing Malnutrition in a Population of US Veterans With Hepatitis C Virus

BACKGROUND

Chronic liver disease often leads to malnutrition in patients. Patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) are at greater risk for misclassification due to disease-specific changes in fluid, muscle, and fat status. Tools traditionally used to diagnose malnutrition may not be applicable in the HCV population, and delaying malnutrition diagnosis may contribute to disease progression. The aim of the present study is to determine and compare the incidence of malnutrition in US veterans with HCV by using 3 different malnutrition assessment tools (subjective global assessment [SGA], American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition and the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics [ASPEN-AND], and Royal Free Hospital Global Assessment [RFH-GA]).

METHODS

Thirty-three US veterans were evaluated for malnutrition according to SGA, ASPEN-AND, and RFH-GA protocols using a prospective, descriptive study design.

RESULTS

Fifteen participants (45.5%) were classified with malnutrition using any criteria (SGA, ASPEN, or RFH-GA). All 3 tools had good agreement, with ASPEN-AND to RFH-GA having the highest specificity and sensitivity. Of those classified with malnutrition using any assessment tool, mean body mass index was 26.6 (P = .014), subjective muscle loss was the most frequently encountered parameter, and 6 (40%) of 15 also had fluid accumulation.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate that malnutrition and particularly muscle wasting is common in US veterans with HCV. All 3 tools had good agreement and the most commonly used nutrition parameter was muscle loss (subjective). In a malnutrition assessment tool for the HCV population, both subjective and objective measures of body composition should be included.

Characteristic Features of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Japan with a Focus on the Roles of Age, Sex and Body Mass Index

This review provides an update on the characteristics of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), with a focus on the effects of age, sex, and body mass index. Age is a risk factor for NAFLD progression; however, extremely old patients have unique features, namely, the associations between metabolic comorbidities and NAFLD are weaker and NAFLD is not a risk factor for mortality. The prevalence of NAFLD is higher in men than in premenopausal women, whereas the reverse is true after menopause. Thus, before menopause, estrogen may have protective effects against NAFLD. Our hospital data showed that over 25% of male patients with NAFLD and almost 40% of female patients with NAFLD, especially elderly patients, were nonobese. Although histological steatosis and activity were associated with body mass index, the prevalence of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis was not. The prevalence of advanced fibrosis showed a significant sex difference. Advanced fibrosis was significantly more frequent among severely obese men but the prevalence was lower among severely obese women. This difference could be because a substantial proportion of severely obese women were premenopausal; thus, estrogen may have much stronger effects on the development of fibrosis than on obesity. Further studies are required to develop tailored management strategies.

Coordination of Care Is Associated With Survival and Health Care Utilization in a Population-Based Study of Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Improving care coordination for patients with high-intensity specialty care needs, such as cirrhosis, can increase quality of healthcare and reduce utilization. We examined the relationship between care concentration and risk of hospitalization for patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of 26,006 Medicare enrollees with cirrhosis with more than 4 outpatient visits over 180 days. We collected data on 2 validated measures of care concentration: the usual provider of care (UPC) index, a measure of the proportion of a patient's total visits that is with their most regularly seen provider, and the continuity of care (COC) index, a measure of care density and dispersion. Both use a scale of 0 to 1. Time to death or liver transplantation was evaluated using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. Hospital days and 30-day readmissions per person-year were evaluated in negative binomial models.

RESULTS

The median COC score was 0.40 (interquartile range, 0.26-0.60) and the median UPC was 0.60 (interquartile range, 0.50-0.80). Increasing care concentration (based on COC and UPC index scores) were associated with increased mortality and hospitalization. The highest 25th percentile of COC and UPC scores were associated with adjusted hazard ratios for mortality of 1.20 (95% CI, 1.10-1.31) and 1.14 (95% CI, 1.06-1.24), adjusted incidence rate ratios for hospital days of 1.12 (95% CI, 1.02-1.23) and 1.10 (95% CI, 1.01-1.20), and adjusted incidence rate ratios for readmissions of 1.19 (95% CI, 1.06-1.34) and 1.12 (95% CI, 1.00-1.25), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on a study of Medicare enrollees, care concentration is low among patients with cirrhosis. However, increased concentration is associated with increased mortality and increased healthcare utilization. These data indicate that, to optimize outcomes for persons with cirrhosis, team-based care might be necessary.

Assessment of a Deep Learning Model to Predict Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Hepatitis C Cirrhosis

IMPORTANCE

Deep learning, a family of machine learning models that use artificial neural networks, has achieved great success at predicting outcomes in nonmedical domains.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether deep learning recurrent neural network (RNN) models that use raw longitudinal data extracted directly from electronic health records outperform conventional regression models in predicting the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This prognostic study included 48 151 patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis in the national Veterans Health Administration who had at least 3 years of follow-up after the diagnosis of cirrhosis. Patients were identified by having at least 1 positive HCV RNA test between January 1, 2000, to January 1, 2016, and were followed up from the diagnosis of cirrhosis to January 1, 2019, for the development of incident HCC. A total of 3 models predicting HCC during a 3-year period were developed and compared, as follows: (1) logistic regression (LR) with cross-sectional inputs (cross-sectional LR); (2) LR with longitudinal inputs (longitudinal LR); and (3) RNN with longitudinal inputs. Data analysis was conducted from April 2018 to August 2020.

EXPOSURES

Development of HCC.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, area under the precision-recall curve, and Brier score.

RESULTS

During a mean (SD) follow-up of 11.6 (5.0) years, 10 741 of 48 151 patients (22.3%) developed HCC (annual incidence, 3.1%), and a total of 52 983 samples (51 948 [98.0%] from men) were collected. Patients who developed HCC within 3 years were older than patients who did not (mean [SD] age, 58.2 [6.6] years vs 56.9 [6.9] years). RNN models had superior mean (SD) area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.759 [0.009]) and mean (SD) Brier score (0.136 [0.003]) than cross-sectional LR (0.689 [0.009] and 0.149 [0.003], respectively) and longitudinal LR (0.682 [0.007] and 0.150 [0.003], respectively) models. Using the RNN model, the samples with the mean (SD) highest 51% (1.5%) of HCC risk, in which 80% of all HCCs occurred, or the mean (SD) highest 66% (1.2%) of HCC risk, in which 90% of all HCCs occurred, could potentially be targeted. Among samples from patients who achieved sustained virologic response, the performance of the RNN models was even better (mean [SD] area under receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.806 [0.025]; mean [SD] Brier score, 0.117 [0.007]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, deep learning RNN models outperformed conventional LR models, suggesting that RNN models could be used to identify patients with HCV-related cirrhosis with a high risk of developing HCC for risk-based HCC outreach and surveillance strategies.

Impact of Safety-Net Burden on In-Hospital Mortality and Hospitalization Costs Among Patients with Alcoholic Hepatitis and Alcoholic Cirrhosis

Aims

Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) and alcoholic cirrhosis disproportionately affect ethnic minority and safety-net populations. We evaluate the impact of a hospital’s safety net burden (SNB) on in-hospital mortality and costs among patients with AH and alcoholic cirrhosis.

Methods

We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 2012–2016 National Inpatient Sample. SNB was calculated as percentage of hospitalizations with Medicaid or uninsured payer status. Associations between hospital SNB and in-hospital mortality and costs were evaluated with adjusted multivariable logistic regression and linear regression models.

Results

Among 21,898 AH-related hospitalizations, compared to low SNB hospitals (LBH), patients hospitalized in high SNB hospitals (HBH) were younger (44.4 y vs. 47.4 y, P &lt; 0.001) and more likely to be African American (11.3% vs. 7.7%, P &lt; 0.001) or Hispanic (15.4% vs. 8.4%, P &lt; 0.001). AH-related hospitalizations in HBH had a non-significant trend towards higher odds of mortality (OR 1.27, 95% CI 0.98–1.65, P = 0.07) and higher mean hospitalizations costs. Among 108,669 alcoholic cirrhosis-related hospitalizations, patients in HBH were younger (53.3 y vs. 55.8 y, P &lt; 0.001) and more likely to be African American (8.2% vs. 7.3%, P &lt; 0.001) or Hispanic (24.4% vs. 12.0%, P &lt; 0.001) compared to LBH. Compared to alcoholic cirrhosis-related hospitalizations in LBH, mortality was higher among medium SNB (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.03–1.17, P = 0.007) and HBH (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.00–1.15, P = 0.05). Mean hospitalization costs were not different by SNB status.

Conclusions

HBH hospitals predominantly serve ethnic minorities and underinsured/uninsured populations. The higher in-hospital mortality associated HBH particularly for alcoholic cirrhosis patients is alarming given its increasing burden in the USA.

The impact of SVR from direct-acting antiviral- and interferon-based treatments for HCV on hepatocellular carcinoma risk

We evaluated the effect of sustained virologic response (SVR) from direct-acting antiviral (DAA)- and interferon-based treatments on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in a large population-based cohort in Canada. We used data from the BC Hepatitis Testers Cohort, which includes ~1.3 million individuals tested for HCV since 1990, linked with healthcare administrative and registry datasets. Patients were followed from the end of HCV treatment to HCC, death or 31 December 2016. We assessed HCC risk among those who did and did not achieve SVR by treatment type using proportional hazard models. Of 12 776 eligible individuals, 3905 received DAAs while 8871 received interferon-based treatments, followed for a median of 1.0 [range: 0.6-2.7] and 7.9 [range: 4.4-17.1] years, respectively. A total of 3613 and 6575 achieved SVR with DAAs- and interferon-based treatments, respectively. Among DAAs-treated patients, HCC incidence rate was 6.9 (95%CI: 4.7-10.1)/1000 person yr (PY) in SVR group (HCC cases: 26) and 38.2 (95%CI: 20.6-71.0) in the no-SVR group (HCC cases: 10, P < .001). Among interferon-treated individuals, HCC incidence rate was 1.8 (95%CI: 1.5-2.2) in the SVR (HCC cases: 99) and 13.9 (95%CI: 12.3-15.8) in the no-SVR group (HCC cases: 239, P < .001). Compared with no-SVR from interferon, SVR from DAA- and interferon-based treatments resulted in significant reduction in HCC risk (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio (adjSHR) DAA = 0.30, 95%CI: 0.19-0.48 and adjSHR interferon = 0.2, 95%CI: 0.16-0.26). Among those with SVR, treatment with DAAs compared to interferon was not associated with HCC risk (adjSHR = 0.93, 95%CI: 0.51-1.71). In conclusion, similar to interferon era, DAA-related SVR is associated with 70% reduction in HCC risk.

Epidemiologic, humanistic and economic burden of hepatocellular carcinoma in the USA: a systematic literature review

AIM

To describe the epidemiologic, humanistic and economic burdens of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the USA.

MATERIALS & METHODS

Studies describing the epidemiology and economic burden from national cohorts, any economic models, or any humanistic burden studies published 2008-2018 were systematically searched.

RESULTS

HCC incidence was 9.5 per 100,000 person-years in most recent data, but was ∼100-times higher among patients with hepatitis/cirrhosis. Approximately a third of patients were diagnosed with advanced disease. Patients with HCC experienced poor quality of life. Direct costs were substantial and varied based on underlying demographics, disease stage and treatment received. Between 25-77% of patients did not receive surgical, locoregional or systemic treatment.

CONCLUSION

Better treatments are needed to extend survival and improve quality of life for patients with HCC.

Models for acute on chronic liver failure development and mortality in a veterans affairs cohort

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The diagnosis of acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) carries a high short-term mortality, making early identification of at-risk patients crucial. To date, there are no models that predict which patients with compensated cirrhosis will develop ACLF, and limited models exist to predict ACLF mortality. We sought to create novel risk prediction models using a large North American cohort.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of 75,922 patients with compensated cirrhosis from the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL) dataset. Using 70% derivation/30% validation sets, we identified ACLF patients using the Asian Pacific Association of Liver (APASL) definition. Multivariable logistic regression was used to derive prediction models (called VOCAL-Penn) for developing ACLF at 3, 6, and 12 months. We then created prediction models for ACLF mortality at 28 and 90 days.

RESULTS

The VOCAL-Penn models for ACLF development had very good discrimination [concordance (C) statistics of 0.93, 0.92, and 0.89 at 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively] and calibration. The mortality models also had good discrimination at 28 and 90 days (C statistics 0.89 and 0.88, respectively), outperforming the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-sodium, and the APASL ACLF Research Consortium ACLF scores.

CONCLUSION

We have developed novel tools for predicting development of ACLF in compensated cirrhosis patients, as well as for ACLF mortality. These tools may be used to proactively guide patient follow-up, prognostication, escalation of care, and transplant evaluation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for predicting development of APASL ACLF at 3 months (a), 6 months (b), and 1 year (c).

Survival benefit associated with early detection of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in veteran inpatients with cirrhotic ascites

Background

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is common in hospitalized cirrhotic patients with ascites and carries high mortality. This study aimed to determine whether early diagnostic paracentesis (EDP) <12 h of hospitalization conveys an intermediate‐term (6‐month) survival benefit in cirrhotic patients diagnosed with SBP.

Methods

Consecutive US veterans with cirrhosis diagnosed with SBP over 13 years at a single VA medical center were reviewed retrospectively. Kaplan‐Meyer analyses assessed the effects of EDP on survival.

Results

A total of 79 cirrhotic patients were diagnosed with SBP (61.8 ± 8.8 years, n = 77 male, n = 52 [66.8%] Caucasian, n = 23 [29.1%] African‐American). Underlying liver diseases included hepatitis c viral infection (HCV) (17.5%), alcohol (28.6%), alcohol and HCV (30.1%), and cryptogenic/metabolic (15.9%). Median baseline model for end‐stage liver disease (MELD) was 12 (range 6–34), and median MELD at presentation was 18. Seven subjects had a history of hepatocellular carcinoma (11.1%), and 26 (41.3%) presented with sepsis. Thirty‐three (52.4%) subjects died within 6 months after the SBP admission. Of the subjects, 41 (65.1%) underwent EDP, of which 23 (56.0%) survived at least 6 months, compared to only 7 of the 22 patients (31.8%) undergoing paracentesis >12 h from presentation (P = 0.057). The maximal benefit of EDP on survival was observed beyond days 14 and 30; at these time points, no statistical difference in mortality was discernable (P = 0.55 and 0.71). In a multivariate model including age, MELD at admission, hepatocellular cancer, and sepsis criteria, EDP (p 0.034) positively impacted patient survival at 6 months.

Conclusions

EDP is associated with improved 6‐month mortality in cirrhotic patients with ascites. In this veteran cohort, EDP was as important as MELD as a predictor of intermediate‐term survival.

Outcomes after hepatic encephalopathy in population-based cohorts of patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Hepatic encephalopathy is a devastating complication of cirrhosis.

AIM

To describe the outcomes after developing hepatic encephalopathy among contemporary, aging patients.

METHODS

We examined data for a 20% random sample of United States Medicare enrolees with cirrhosis and Part D prescription coverage from 2008 to 2014. Among 49 164 persons with hepatic encephalopathy, we evaluated the associations with transplant-free survival using Cox proportional hazard models with time-varying covariates (hazard ratios, HR) and incidence rate ratios (IRR) for healthcare utilisation measured in hospital-days and 30-day readmissions per person-year. We validated our findings in an external cohort of 2184 privately insured patients with complete laboratory values.

RESULTS

Hepatic encephalopathy was associated with median survivals of 0.95 and 2.5 years for those ≥65 or <65 years old and 1.1 versus 3.9 years for those with and without ascites. Non-alcoholic fatty-liver disease posed the highest adjusted risk of death among aetiologies, HR 1.07 95% CI (1.02, 1.12). Both gastroenterology consultation and rifaximin utilisation were associated with lower mortality, respective adjusted-HR 0.73 95% CI (0.67, 0.80) and 0.40 95% CI (0.39, 0.42). Thirty-day readmissions were fewer for patients seen by gastroenterologists (0.71 95% CI [0.57-0.88]) and taking rifaximin (0.18 95% CI [0.08-0.40]). Lactulose alone was associated with fewer hospital-days, IRR 0.31 95% CI (0.30-0.32), than rifaximin alone, 0.49 95% CI (0.45-0.53), but the optimal therapy combination was lactulose/rifaximin, IRR 0.28 95% CI (0.27-0.30). These findings were validated in the privately insured cohort adjusting for model for endstage liver disease-sodium score and serum albumin.

CONCLUSIONS

Hepatic encephalopathy remains morbid and associated with poor outcomes among contemporary patients. Gastroenterology consultation and combination lactulose-rifaximin are both associated with improved outcomes. These data inform the development of care coordination efforts for subjects with cirrhosis.

Physical activity compared to adiposity and risk of liver-related mortality: Results from two prospective, nationwide cohorts

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Obesity in adulthood has been associated with increased risk of liver-related mortality. Whether higher levels of physical activity counteract the excess risk conferred by obesity remains unknown. We simultaneously evaluated the long-term impact of physical activity and adiposity on liver-related mortality, within 2 nationwide populations.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study of 77,238 women and 48,026 men, with detailed, validated assessments of weekly physical activity (metabolic equivalent task [MET]-hours]), adiposity (body mass index [BMI], waist circumference), and diet, alcohol use and clinical comorbidities, biennially from 1986 through 2012. Using Cox proportional hazards regression models, we calculated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for liver-related mortality, including death from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and other complications of cirrhosis.

RESULTS

Over 1,856,226 person-years, we recorded 295 liver-related deaths (108 HCC; 187 cirrhosis). Risk of liver-related mortality increased monotonically with higher BMI during adulthood (ptrend<0.0001) and with weight gain during early adulthood (ptrend <0.0001). The risk of liver-related mortality also declined progressively, with increasing physical activity (ptrend = 0.0003); the aHRs across increasing physical activity quintiles were: 1.0, 0.70 (95% CI 0.51-0.96), 0.59 (95% CI 0.42-0.84), 0.52 (95% CI 0.36-0.74) and 0.46 (95% CI 0.31-0.66). Compared to lean-active adults (BMI <25; ≥18 MET-hours/week), the aHRs for obese-active, lean-sedentary, and obese-sedentary adults were: 1.04 (95% CI 0.73-1.37), 2.08 (95% CI 1.21-3.33) and 3.40 (95% CI 2.06-5.56), respectively. Findings were similar for HCC-specific and cirrhosis-specific mortality. Overall, engaging in average-pace walking for >3 hours/week could have prevented 25% of liver-related deaths (95% CI 0.12-0.38).

CONCLUSIONS

In 2 prospective, nationwide cohorts, both excess adiposity and reduced physical activity were significant predictors of liver-related mortality. Achieving higher physical activity levels counteracted the excess liver-related risks associated with obesity.

LAY SUMMARY

This is the first large, prospective cohort study to simultaneously evaluate the impact of obesity and physical activity on the long-term risk of liver-related mortality in 2 nationwide populations of American men and women. The study demonstrated that obesity predicted significantly increased risk of liver-related mortality, while physical activity predicted significantly lower risk of liver-related mortality. Importantly, the excess risk of liver-related mortality observed with obesity was no longer statistically significant among adults who engaged in the equivalent of average-pace walking for 3 hours or more, per week.

Impact of Alcohol Use Disorder Treatment on Clinical Outcomes Among Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Despite the significant medical and economic consequences of coexisting alcohol use disorder (AUD) in patients with cirrhosis, little is known about AUD treatment patterns and their impact on clinical outcomes in this population. We aimed to characterize the use of and outcomes associated with AUD treatment in patients with cirrhosis.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This retrospective cohort study included Veterans with cirrhosis who received Veterans Health Administration care and had an index diagnosis of AUD between 2011 and 2015. We assessed the baseline factors associated with AUD treatment (pharmacotherapy or behavioral therapy) and clinical outcomes for 180 days following the first AUD diagnosis code within the study time frame. Among 93,612 Veterans with cirrhosis, we identified 35,682 with AUD, after excluding 2,671 who had prior diagnoses of AUD and recent treatment. Over 180 days following the index diagnosis of AUD, 5,088 (14%) received AUD treatment, including 4,461 (12%) who received behavioral therapy alone, 159 (0.4%) who received pharmacotherapy alone, and 468 (1%) who received both behavioral therapy and pharmacotherapy. In adjusted analyses, behavioral and/or pharmacotherapy-based AUD treatment was associated with a significant reduction in incident hepatic decompensation (6.5% vs. 11.6%, adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.52, 0.76), a nonsignificant decrease in short-term all-cause mortality (2.6% vs. 3.9%, AOR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.57, 1.08), and a significant decrease in long-term all-cause mortality (51% vs. 58%, AOR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.80, 0.96).

CONCLUSIONS

Most Veterans with cirrhosis and coexisting AUD did not receive behavioral therapy or pharmacotherapy treatment for AUD over a 6-month follow-up. The reductions in hepatic decompensation and mortality suggest that future studies should focus on delivering evidence-based AUD treatments to patients with coexisting AUD and cirrhosis.

Epidemiological Trend of Sepsis in Patients with Hospital Admissions Related to Hepatitis C in Spain (2000-2015): A Nationwide Study

Background: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection predisposes patients to other infectious diseases, such as sepsis. We aimed to analyze epidemiological trends of sepsis-related admissions, deaths, and costs in hospital admissions with chronic hepatitis C who had a hospital admission in Spain. Methods: We performed a retrospective study of all hospitalizations involving chronic hepatitis C in the Spanish Minimum Basic Data Set (MBDS) between 2000 and 2015. This period was divided into four calendar periods (2000–2004, 2005–2007, 2008–2011, and 2012–2015). Results: We selected 868,523 hospital admissions of patients with chronic hepatitis C over 16 years in the Spanish MBDS. Among them, we found 70,976 (8.17%) hospital admissions of patients who developed sepsis, of which 13,915 (19.61%) died during admission. We found an upward trend, from 2000–2003 to 2012–2015, in the rate of sepsis-related admission (from 6.18% to 10.64%; p < 0.001), the risk of sepsis-related admission (from 1.31 to 1.55; p < 0.001), and the sepsis-related cost per hospital admission (from 7198€ to above 9497€; p < 0.001). However, we found a downward trend during the same study period in the sepsis case-fatality rate (from 21.99% to 18.16%; p < 0.001), the risk of sepsis-related death (from 0.81 to 0.56; p < 0.001), and the length of hospital stay (LOHS) (from 16.9 to 13.9; p < 0.001). Moreover, the rate of bacterial Gram-positive and candidiasis infections decreased, while Gram-negative microorganisms increased from 2000–2003 to 2012–2015. Conclusions: Sepsis, in chronic hepatitis C patients admitted to the hospital, has increased the period 2000–2015 and has been an increasing burden for the Spanish public health system. However, there has also been a significant reduction in lethality and LOHS during the study period. In addition, the most prevalent specific microorganisms have also changed in this period.