Mapping Plasmodium falciparum Mortality in Africa between 1990 and 2015

Anemia was an Uncommon Complication of Severe Malaria in a High-Transmission Rural Area of Western Uganda

The clinical epidemiology of severe malaria among patients presenting to peripheral health centers has not been well described. We conducted a prospective, observational cohort study to describe the epidemiology and clinical manifestations of severe malaria in a highland area of declining transmission intensity in Western Uganda. Individuals presenting with a history of fever were screened with a malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT). We prepared blood smears and conducted clinical and laboratory testing for those with a positive RDT. We defined severe malaria in accordance with World Health Organization guidelines for research and epidemiological studies. A total of 6,641 individuals underwent testing for malaria. Ninety-six of 1,462 (6.6%) participants with confirmed parasitemia satisfied the criteria for severe malaria. The incidence of severe malaria peaked between 2 and 3 years of age (incidence rate ratio = 17.1, 95% confidence interval = 8.4-34.9, P < 0.001) and then declined steadily until age 10. However, we also found a second peak among those ≥ 50 years of age. Severe anemia was uncommon, detected in only 5.3% of cases. Instead, shock (22.2%) and lactic acidosis (19.4%) were most frequently encountered. Our results suggest that the clinical characteristics of severe malaria presenting to rural, peripheral health centers may be different than previously observed in referral centers. These findings merit further investigation into the optimal methods for identification and management of severe malaria in rural health centers in the region.

Mapping multiple components of malaria risk for improved targeting of elimination interventions

There is a long history of considering the constituent components of malaria risk and the malaria transmission cycle via the use of mathematical models, yet strategic planning in endemic countries tends not to take full advantage of available disease intelligence to tailor interventions. National malaria programmes typically make operational decisions about where to implement vector control and surveillance activities based upon simple categorizations of annual parasite incidence. With technological advances, an enormous opportunity exists to better target specific malaria interventions to the places where they will have greatest impact by mapping and evaluating metrics related to a variety of risk components, each of which describes a different facet of the transmission cycle. Here, these components and their implications for operational decision-making are reviewed. For each component, related mappable malaria metrics are also described which may be measured and evaluated by malaria programmes seeking to better understand the determinants of malaria risk. Implementing tailored programmes based on knowledge of the heterogeneous distribution of the drivers of malaria transmission rather than only consideration of traditional metrics such as case incidence has the potential to result in substantial improvements in decision-making. As programmes improve their ability to prioritize their available tools to the places where evidence suggests they will be most effective, elimination aspirations may become increasingly feasible.

Mapping under-5 and neonatal mortality in Africa, 2000-15: a baseline analysis for the Sustainable Development Goals

BACKGROUND

During the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) era, many countries in Africa achieved marked reductions in under-5 and neonatal mortality. Yet the pace of progress toward these goals substantially varied at the national level, demonstrating an essential need for tracking even more local trends in child mortality. With the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, which established ambitious targets for improving child survival by 2030, optimal intervention planning and targeting will require understanding of trends and rates of progress at a higher spatial resolution. In this study, we aimed to generate high-resolution estimates of under-5 and neonatal all-cause mortality across 46 countries in Africa.

METHODS

We assembled 235 geographically resolved household survey and census data sources on child deaths to produce estimates of under-5 and neonatal mortality at a resolution of 5 × 5 km grid cells across 46 African countries for 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. We used a Bayesian geostatistical analytical framework to generate these estimates, and implemented predictive validity tests. In addition to reporting 5 × 5 km estimates, we also aggregated results obtained from these estimates into three different levels-national, and subnational administrative levels 1 and 2-to provide the full range of geospatial resolution that local, national, and global decision makers might require.

FINDINGS

Amid improving child survival in Africa, there was substantial heterogeneity in absolute levels of under-5 and neonatal mortality in 2015, as well as the annualised rates of decline achieved from 2000 to 2015. Subnational areas in countries such as Botswana, Rwanda, and Ethiopia recorded some of the largest decreases in child mortality rates since 2000, positioning them well to achieve SDG targets by 2030 or earlier. Yet these places were the exception for Africa, since many areas, particularly in central and western Africa, must reduce under-5 mortality rates by at least 8·8% per year, between 2015 and 2030, to achieve the SDG 3.2 target for under-5 mortality by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

In the absence of unprecedented political commitment, financial support, and medical advances, the viability of SDG 3.2 achievement in Africa is precarious at best. By producing under-5 and neonatal mortality rates at multiple levels of geospatial resolution over time, this study provides key information for decision makers to target interventions at populations in the greatest need. In an era when precision public health increasingly has the potential to transform the design, implementation, and impact of health programmes, our 5 × 5 km estimates of child mortality in Africa provide a baseline against which local, national, and global stakeholders can map the pathways for ending preventable child deaths by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Impact of malaria interventions on child mortality in endemic African settings: comparison and alignment between LiST and Spectrum-Malaria model

Background

In malaria-endemic countries, malaria prevention and treatment are critical for child health. In the context of intervention scale-up and rapid changes in endemicity, projections of intervention impact and optimized program scale-up strategies need to take into account the consequent dynamics of transmission and immunity.

Methods

The new Spectrum-Malaria program planning tool was used to project health impacts of Insecticide-Treated mosquito Nets (ITNs) and effective management of uncomplicated malaria cases (CMU), among other interventions, on malaria infection prevalence, case incidence and mortality in children 0–4 years, 5–14 years of age and adults. Spectrum-Malaria uses statistical models fitted to simulations of the dynamic effects of increasing intervention coverage on these burdens as a function of baseline malaria endemicity, seasonality in transmission and malaria intervention coverage levels (estimated for years 2000 to 2015 by the World Health Organization and Malaria Atlas Project). Spectrum-Malaria projections of proportional reductions in under-five malaria mortality were compared with those of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) for the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia, for given (standardized) scenarios of ITN and/or CMU scale-up over 2016–2030.

Results

Proportional mortality reductions over the first two years following scale-up of ITNs from near-zero baselines to moderately higher coverages align well between LiST and Spectrum-Malaria —as expected since both models were fitted to cluster-randomized ITN trials in moderate-to-high-endemic settings with 2-year durations. For further scale-up from moderately high ITN coverage to near-universal coverage (as currently relevant for strategic planning for many countries), Spectrum-Malaria predicts smaller additional ITN impacts than LiST, reflecting progressive saturation. For CMU, especially in the longer term (over 2022–2030) and for lower-endemic settings (like Zambia), Spectrum-Malaria projects larger proportional impacts, reflecting onward dynamic effects not fully captured by LiST.

Conclusions

Spectrum-Malaria complements LiST by extending the scope of malaria interventions, program packages and health outcomes that can be evaluated for policy making and strategic planning within and beyond the perspective of child survival.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-017-4739-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Clinical Implications of Single-Cell Microfluidic Devices for Hematological Disorders

Single-cell microfluidic devices are poised to substantially impact the hematology field by providing a high-throughput and rapid device to analyze disease-mediated biophysical cellular changes in the clinical setting in order to diagnose patients and monitor disease prognosis. In this Feature, we cover recent advances of single-cell microfluidic devices for studying and diagnosing hematological dysfunctions and the clinical impact made possible by these advances.

Study roadmap for high-throughput development of easy to use and affordable biomarkers as diagnostics for tropical diseases: a focus on malaria and schistosomiasis

BACKGROUND

Interventions are currently being used against 'infectious diseases of poverty', which remain highly debilitating and deadly in most endemic countries, especially malaria, schistosomiasis, echinococcosis and African sleeping sickness. However, major limitations of current 'traditional' methods for diagnosis are neither simple nor convenient for population surveillance, and showed low sensitivity and specificity. Access to novel technologies for the development of adequate and reliable tools are expressly needed. A collaborative project between African Network for Drugs and Diagnostics Innovation and partner institutions in Africa and China aims to screen suitable serological biomarkers for diagnostic pipelines against these 'diseases of the poor'.

METHODS

Parasite-specific exposed versus unexposed individuals were screened and sera or urine/stools were collected through case-control studies in China and African countries. Target genes/open reading frames were selected, then will be cloned and cell-free expressed, quantified and immuno-detected. Target antigens/epitopes will be probed and screened with sera from exposed or unexposed individuals using a high-throughput antigen screening platform as the study progresses. The specificity and sensitivity of highly immunoreactive biomarkers will be evaluated as well, using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays or dipsticks.

DISCUSSION

This roadmap explicitly unfolds the integrated operating procedures with focus on malaria and schistosomiasis, for the identification of suitable biomarkers that will aid the prioritization of diagnostics for population use. However, there is need to further validate any new diagnostic through comparison with standard methods in field deployable tests for each region. Our expectations for the future are to seek regulatory approval and promote the use of diagnostics in endemic areas.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate.

FINDINGS

The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally.

INTERPRETATION

At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends.

METHODS

We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016.

FINDINGS

The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2-73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5-20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00-8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe.

INTERPRETATION

The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Vδ2+ T cell response to malaria correlates with protection from infection but is attenuated with repeated exposure

Vδ2+ γδ T cells are semi-innate T cells that expand markedly following P. falciparum (Pf) infection in naïve adults, but are lost and become dysfunctional among children repeatedly exposed to malaria. The role of these cells in mediating clinical immunity (i.e. protection against symptoms) to malaria remains unclear. We measured Vδ2+ T cell absolute counts at acute and convalescent malaria timepoints (n = 43), and Vδ2+ counts, cellular phenotype, and cytokine production following in vitro stimulation at asymptomatic visits (n = 377), among children aged 6 months to 10 years living in Uganda. Increasing age was associated with diminished in vivo expansion following malaria, and lower Vδ2 absolute counts overall, among children living in a high transmission setting. Microscopic parasitemia and expression of the immunoregulatory markers Tim-3 and CD57 were associated with diminished Vδ2+ T cell pro-inflammatory cytokine production. Higher Vδ2 pro-inflammatory cytokine production was associated with protection from subsequent Pf infection, but also with an increased odds of symptoms once infected. Vδ2+ T cells may play a role in preventing malaria infection in children living in endemic settings; progressive loss and dysfunction of these cells may represent a disease tolerance mechanism that contributes to the development of clinical immunity to malaria.

Micro-epidemiological structuring of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations in regions with varying transmission intensities in Africa

Background: The first models of malaria transmission assumed a completely mixed and homogeneous population of parasites.  Recent models include spatial heterogeneity and variably mixed populations. However, there are few empiric estimates of parasite mixing with which to parametize such models.

Methods: Here we genotype 276 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 5199 P. falciparum isolates from two Kenyan sites (Kilifi county and Rachuonyo South district) and one Gambian site (Kombo coastal districts) to determine the spatio-temporal extent of parasite mixing, and use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and linear regression to examine the relationship between genetic relatedness and distance in space and time for parasite pairs.

Results: Using 107, 177 and 82 SNPs that were successfully genotyped in 133, 1602, and 1034 parasite isolates from The Gambia, Kilifi and Rachuonyo South district, respectively, we show that there are no discrete geographically restricted parasite sub-populations, but instead we see a diffuse spatio-temporal structure to parasite genotypes.  Genetic relatedness of sample pairs is predicted by relatedness in space and time.

Conclusions: Our findings suggest that targeted malaria control will benefit the surrounding community, but unfortunately also that emerging drug resistance will spread rapidly through the population.

Micro-epidemiological structuring of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations in regions with varying transmission intensities in Africa

Background: The first models of malaria transmission assumed a completely mixed and homogeneous population of parasites. Recent models include spatial heterogeneity and variably mixed populations. However, there are few empiric estimates of parasite mixing with which to parametize such models. Methods: Here we genotype 276 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 5199 P. falciparum isolates from two Kenyan sites (Kilifi county and Rachuonyo South district) and one Gambian site (Kombo coastal districts) to determine the spatio-temporal extent of parasite mixing, and use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and linear regression to examine the relationship between genetic relatedness and distance in space and time for parasite pairs. Results: Using 107, 177 and 82 SNPs that were successfully genotyped in 133, 1602, and 1034 parasite isolates from The Gambia, Kilifi and Rachuonyo South district, respectively, we show that there are no discrete geographically restricted parasite sub-populations, but instead we see a diffuse spatio-temporal structure to parasite genotypes. Genetic relatedness of sample pairs is predicted by relatedness in space and time. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that targeted malaria control will benefit the surrounding community, but unfortunately also that emerging drug resistance will spread rapidly through the population.

3D mosquito screens to create window double screen traps for mosquito control

BACKGROUND

Mosquitoes are vectors for many diseases such as malaria. Insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying of insecticides are the principal malaria vector control tools used to prevent malaria in the tropics. Other interventions aim at reducing man-vector contact. For example, house screening provides additive or synergistic effects to other implemented measures. We used commercial screen materials made of polyester, polyethylene or polypropylene to design novel mosquito screens that provide remarkable additional benefits to those commonly used in house screening. The novel design is based on a double screen setup made of a screen with 3D geometric structures parallel to a commercial mosquito screen creating a trap between the two screens. Owing to the design of the 3D screen, mosquitoes can penetrate the 3D screen from one side but cannot return through the other side, making it a unidirectional mosquito screen. Therefore, the mosquitoes are trapped inside the double screen system. The permissiveness of both sides of the 3D screens for mosquitoes to pass through was tested in a wind tunnel using the insectary strain of Anopheles stephensi.

RESULTS

Among twenty-five tested 3D screen designs, three designs from the cone, prism, or cylinder design groups were the most efficient in acting as unidirectional mosquito screens. The three cone-, prism-, and cylinder-based screens allowed, on average, 92, 75 and 64% of Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes released into the wind tunnel to penetrate the permissive side and 0, 0 and 6% of mosquitoes to escape through the non-permissive side, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A cone-based 3D screen fulfilled the study objective. It allowed capturing 92% of mosquitoes within the double screen setup inside the wind tunnel and blocked 100% from escaping. Thus, the cone-based screen effectively acted as a unidirectional mosquito screen. This 3D screen-based trap design could therefore be used in house screening as a means of avoiding infective bites and reducing mosquito population size.

Circulating microRNAs in malaria infection: bench to bedside

Severe malaria has a poor prognosis with a morbidity rate of 80% in tropical areas. The early parasite detection is one of the effective means to prevent severe malaria of which specific treatment strategies are limited. Many clinical characteristics and laboratory testings have been used for the early diagnosis and prediction of severe disease. However, a few of these factors could be applied to clinical practice. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) were demonstrated as useful biomarkers in many diseases such as malignant diseases and cardiovascular diseases. Recently it was found that plasma miR-451 and miR-16 were downregulated in malaria infection at parasitic stages or with multi-organ failure involvement. MiR-125b, -27a, -23a, -150, 17-92 and -24 are deregulated in malaria patients with multiple organ failures. Here, the current findings of miRNAs were reviewed in relation to clinical severity of malaria infection and emphasized that miRNAs are potential biomarkers for severe malaria infection.

Malaria

Malaria is caused in humans by five species of single-celled eukaryotic Plasmodium parasites (mainly Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax) that are transmitted by the bite of Anopheles spp. mosquitoes. Malaria remains one of the most serious infectious diseases; it threatens nearly half of the world's population and led to hundreds of thousands of deaths in 2015, predominantly among children in Africa. Malaria is managed through a combination of vector control approaches (such as insecticide spraying and the use of insecticide-treated bed nets) and drugs for both treatment and prevention. The widespread use of artemisinin-based combination therapies has contributed to substantial declines in the number of malaria-related deaths; however, the emergence of drug resistance threatens to reverse this progress. Advances in our understanding of the underlying molecular basis of pathogenesis have fuelled the development of new diagnostics, drugs and insecticides. Several new combination therapies are in clinical development that have efficacy against drug-resistant parasites and the potential to be used in single-dose regimens to improve compliance. This ambitious programme to eliminate malaria also includes new approaches that could yield malaria vaccines or novel vector control strategies. However, despite these achievements, a well-coordinated global effort on multiple fronts is needed if malaria elimination is to be achieved.

Multiplication rate variation in the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum

It is important to understand intrinsic variation in asexual blood stage multiplication rates of the most virulent human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. Here, multiplication rates of long-term laboratory adapted parasite clones and new clinical isolates were measured, using a newly standardised assay of growth from low starting density in replicate parallel cultures with erythrocytes from multiple different donors, across multiple cycles. Multiplication rates of long-term established clones were between 7.6 and 10.5 fold per 48 hours, with clone Dd2 having a higher rate than others (clones 3D7, HB3 and D10). Parasite clone-specific growth was then analysed in co-culture assays with all possible heterologous pairwise combinations. This showed that co-culture of different parasites did not affect their replication rates, indicating that there were no suppressive interactions operating between parasites. Multiplication rates of eleven new clinical isolates were measured after a few weeks of culture, and showed a spectrum of replication rates between 2.3 and 6.0 fold per 48 hours, the entire range being lower than for the long-term laboratory adapted clones. Multiplication rate estimates remained stable over time for several isolates tested repeatedly up to three months after culture initiation, indicating considerable persistence of this important trait variation.

Variation in species composition and infection rates of Anopheles mosquitoes at different altitudinal transects, and the risk of malaria in the highland of Dirashe Woreda, south Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

The transmission of malaria is heterogeneous, and varies due to altitude. The information on whether the transmission of malaria is indigenous or imported to highland areas is scarce. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the species composition and infection rates of Anopheles at different altitudinal transects, and the risk of malaria if any in the highland of Dirashe Woreda, South Ethiopia.

METHODS

This study was conducted in Gato (low altitude; average elevation of 1273 m), Onota (mid-altitude; average elevation of 1707 m) and Layignaw-Arguba (high altitude; average elevation of 2337 m) from August 2015 to April 2016. Anopheles mosquitoes were sampled using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light traps from thirty houses (ten houses from each village). The circum-sporozoite proteins (CSPs) rate and entomological inoculation rate (EIR) of Anopheles mosquitoes were estimated. For the epidemiological survey, malaria cases were collected from laboratory registration books of selected health facilities from (August 2015-April 2016). A cross-sectional survey was done to collect data on malaria vector control activities in each village (August-September 2015).

RESULTS

One thousand two hundred sixty-eight Anopheles mosquitoes comprising Anopheles arabiensis, An. demeilloni, An. cinereus, An. pharoensis, An. funestus-group, An. pretoriensis, An. christyi, An. ardensis and An. tenebrosus were identified in the study area. Anopheles arabiensis was the dominant species in Gato, whereas An. demeilloni was the dominant species in Layignaw-Arguba. Five mosquitoes, three An. arabiensis from Gato and two An. demeilloni from Layignaw-Arguba, were positive for Plasmodium falciparum CSPs. Plasmodium falciparum CSP rate was 0.4% (95% CI: 0.08-1.15) for An. arabiensis in Gato, and it was 0.64% (95% CI: 0.08-2.3) for An. demeilloni from Layignaw-Arguba. The P. falciparum EIR of An. arabiensis was 8.6 (95% CI: 2.4-33.4) infectious bites/person/nine-months in Gato. Plasmodium falciparum parasite was dominant in Gato (88%) and Onota (57.5%), whereas in Layignaw-Arguba P. vivax (59.4%) occurred most frequently. Increased malaria cases were observed in children age 5-14 years in Gato (P < 0.05), whereas in Onota and Layignaw-Arguba there was no statistically significant difference in malaria cases among the age groups. Households owning at least one long lasting insecticidal net were 92.7% in the study area, and 77.6% slept under the net during the preceding night of the survey. About 64.4% of the households in Gato were protected by the indoor residual spray. However, the spraying was done when the density of local malaria vectors was low.

CONCLUSION

Incrimination of Plasmodium CSP positive Anopheles species and the presence of malaria in children under five years in high altitude Layignaw-Arguba may justify the existence of indigenous malaria transmission and the need for effective malaria control. Further investigation and confirmation using more sensitive molecular techniques are however needed to consider An. demeilloni as a proven vector of malaria in Ethiopia.

Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of mortality in relation to malaria incidence in Western Kenya

INTRODUCTION

The effect of malaria exposure on mortality using health facility incidence data as a measure of transmission has not been well investigated. Health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) routinely capture data on mortality, interventions and other household related indicators, offering a unique platform for estimating and monitoring the incidence-mortality relationship in space and time.

METHODS

Mortality data from the HDSS located in Western Kenya collected from 2007 to 2012 and linked to health facility incidence data were analysed using Bayesian spatio-temporal survival models to investigate the relation between mortality (all-cause/malaria-specific) and malaria incidence across all age groups. The analysis adjusted for insecticide-treated net (ITN) ownership, socio-economic status (SES), distance to health facilities and altitude. The estimates obtained were used to quantify excess mortality due to malaria exposure.

RESULTS

Our models identified a strong positive relationship between slide positivity rate (SPR) and all-cause mortality in young children 1-4 years (HR = 4.29; 95% CI: 2.78-13.29) and all ages combined (HR = 1.55; 1.04-2.80). SPR had a strong positive association with malaria-specific mortality in young children (HR = 9.48; 5.11-37.94), however, in older children (5-14 years), it was associated with a reduction in malaria specific mortality (HR = 0.02; 0.003-0.33).

CONCLUSION

SPR as a measure of transmission captures well the association between malaria transmission intensity and all-cause/malaria mortality. This offers a quick and efficient way to monitor malaria burden. Excess mortality estimates indicate that small changes in malaria incidence substantially reduce overall and malaria specific mortality.

Global funding trends for malaria research in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic analysis

Background

Total domestic and international funding for malaria is inadequate to achieve WHO global targets in burden reduction by 2030. We describe the trends of investments in malaria-related research in sub-Saharan Africa and compare investment with national disease burden to identify areas of funding strength and potentially neglected populations. We also considered funding for malaria control.

Methods

Research funding data related to malaria for 1997–2013 were sourced from existing datasets, from 13 major public and philanthropic global health funders, and from funding databases. Investments (reported in US$) were considered by geographical area and compared with data on parasite prevalence and populations at risk in sub-Saharan Africa. 45 sub-Saharan African countries were ranked by amount of research funding received.

Findings

We found 333 research awards totalling US$814·4 million. Public health research covered $308·1 million (37·8%) and clinical trials covered $275·2 million (33·8%). Tanzania ($107·8 million [13·2%]), Uganda ($97·9 million [12·0%]), and Kenya ($92·9 million [11·4%]) received the highest sum of research investment and the most research awards. Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda remained highly ranked after adjusting for national gross domestic product. Countries with a reasonably high malaria burden that received little research investment or funding for malaria control included Central African Republic (ranked 40th) and Sierra Leone (ranked 35th). Congo (Brazzaville) and Guinea had reasonably high malaria mortality, yet Congo (Brazzaville) ranked 38th and Guinea ranked 25th, thus receiving little investment.

Interpretation

Some countries receive reasonably large investments in malaria-related research (Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda), whereas others receive little or no investments (Sierra Leone, Central African Republic). Research investments are typically highest in countries where funding for malaria control is also high. Investment strategies should consider more equitable research and operational investments across countries to include currently neglected and susceptible populations.

Funding

Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Malaria 2017: Update on the Clinical Literature and Management

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Malaria is a prevalent disease in travelers to and residents of malaria-endemic regions. Health care workers in both endemic and non-endemic settings should be familiar with the latest evidence for the diagnosis, management and prevention of malaria. This article will discuss the recent malaria epidemiologic and medical literature to review the progress, challenges, and optimal management of malaria.

RECENT FINDINGS

There has been a marked decrease in malaria-related global morbidity and mortality secondary to malaria control programs over the last few decades. This exciting progress is tempered by continued levels of high transmission in some regions, the emergence of artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Southeast Asia, and the lack of a highly protective malaria vaccine. In the United States (US), the number of travelers returning with malaria infection has increased over the past few decades. Thus, US health care workers need to maintain expertise in the diagnosis and treatment of this infection. The best practices for treatment and prevention of malaria need to be continually updated based on emerging data. Here, we present an update on the recent literature on malaria epidemiology, drug resistance, severe disease, and prevention strategies.

PERIPHERAL PARASITAEMIA AND ITS ASSOCIATION WITH PLASMA CYTOKINES LEVELS IN MALARIA-INFECTED PREGNANT WOMEN IN ABA, ABIA STATE, NIGERIA

Background:

Cytokines in pregnant female may not be a normal phenomenon as malarial infection is often associated with strong CD4+ cell activation and up-regulation of pro-inflammatory cytokines. We investigated the relationship between peripheral parasitaemia and plasma levels of cytokines among malaria infected pregnant women in Aba, Abia State, Nigeria.

Materials and Methods:

A total of 206 non-HIV positive asymptomatic malaria parasitaemic (n=144) and non-parasitaemic (n=62) pregnant women were recruited for this study alongside 80 non-pregnant women who served as positive (n=40) and negative (n=40) controls. Blood samples were aseptically collected from each subject and tested for HIV and malaria parasites using standard methods. Also, plasma levels of cytokines were measured using Th1/Th2 human cytokine ELISA kits (Abcam, UK). Analysis of Variance and Student’s t-test were used for Comparison of groups while Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient was used for tests of association.

Results:

The results revealed a mean parasite density of 685.56±484.55 parasites/µl of blood. Malaria infected pregnant subjects showed significantly higher levels of IFN-γ, TNF-α, IL-4, IL-6 and IL-10 when compared with their non-infected counterparts (P< 0.05). The cytokines evaluated were higher in moderate parasitaemia than mild parasitaemia. Positive correlation existed between peripheral parasite density (PPD) and IL-4 (r= 0.24, P=0.004), PPD and IL-6 (r = 0.35, P = 0.001) as well as PPD and IL-10 (r = 0.29, P = 0.001).

Conclusion:

This study showed that increase in peripheral parasitaemia increased levels of some plasma cytokines (IL-4, IL-6 and IL-10) but not IFN-γ and TNF-α in the malaria infected pregnant women studied.

Estimates of global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of diarrhoeal diseases: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoeal diseases. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 25 years and informs the changing picture of diarrhoeal disease worldwide.

Methods

We estimated diarrhoeal mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm), a modelling platform shared across most causes of death in the GBD 2015 study. We modelled diarrhoeal morbidity, including incidence and prevalence, using a meta-regression platform called DisMod-MR. We estimated aetiologies for diarrhoeal diseases using a counterfactual approach that incorporates the aetiology-specific risk of diarrhoeal disease and the prevalence of the aetiology in diarrhoea episodes. We used the Socio-demographic Index, a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility, to assess trends in diarrhoeal mortality. The two leading risk factors for diarrhoea—childhood malnutrition and unsafe water, sanitation, and hygiene—were used in a decomposition analysis to establish the relative contribution of changes in diarrhoea disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).

Findings

Globally, in 2015, we estimate that diarrhoea was a leading cause of death among all ages (1·31 million deaths, 95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 1·23 million to 1·39 million), as well as a leading cause of DALYs because of its disproportionate impact on young children (71·59 million DALYs, 66·44 million to 77·21 million). Diarrhoea was a common cause of death among children under 5 years old (499 000 deaths, 95% UI 447 000–558 000). The number of deaths due to diarrhoea decreased by an estimated 20·8% (95% UI 15·4–26·1) from 2005 to 2015. Rotavirus was the leading cause of diarrhoea deaths (199 000, 95% UI 165 000–241 000), followed by Shigella spp (164 300, 85 000–278 700) and Salmonella spp (90 300, 95% UI 34 100–183 100). Among children under 5 years old, the three aetiologies responsible for the most deaths were rotavirus, Cryptosporidium spp, and Shigella spp. Improvements in safe water and sanitation have decreased diarrhoeal DALYs by 13·4%, and reductions in childhood undernutrition have decreased diarrhoeal DALYs by 10·0% between 2005 and 2015.

Interpretation

At the global level, deaths due to diarrhoeal diseases have decreased substantially in the past 25 years, although progress has been faster in some countries than others. Diarrhoea remains a largely preventable disease and cause of death, and continued efforts to improve access to safe water, sanitation, and childhood nutrition will be important in reducing the global burden of diarrhoea.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Beyond causes of death: The social determinants of mortality among children aged 1-59 months in Nigeria from 2009 to 2013

Background

Millions of children worldwide suffer and die from conditions for which effective interventions exist. While there is ample evidence regarding these diseases, there is a dearth of information on the social factors associated with child mortality.

Methods

The 2014 Verbal and Social Autopsy Study was conducted based on a nationally representative sample of 3,254 deaths that occurred in children under the age of five and were reported on the birth history component of the 2013 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey. We conducted a descriptive analysis of the preventive and curative care sought and obtained for the 2,057 children aged 1–59 months who died in Nigeria and performed regional (North vs. South) comparisons.

Results

A total of 1,616 children died in the northern region, while 441 children died in the South. The majority (72.5%) of deceased children in the northern region were born to mothers who had no education, married at a young age, and lived in the poorest two quintiles of households. When caregivers first noticed that their child was ill, a median of 2 days passed before they sought or attempted to seek healthcare for their children. The proportion of children who reached and departed from their first formal healthcare provider alive was greater in the North (30.6%) than in the South (17.9%) (p<0.001). A total of 548 children were moderately or severely sick at discharge from the first healthcare provider, yet only 3.9%-18.1% were referred to a second healthcare provider. Cost, lack of transportation, and distance from healthcare facilities were the most commonly reported barriers to formal care-seeking behavior.

Conclusions

Maternal, household, and healthcare system factors contributed to child mortality in Nigeria. Information regarding modifiable social factors may be useful in planning intervention programs to promote child survival in Nigeria and other low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Evolution and patterns of global health financing 1995-2014: development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

BACKGROUND

An adequate amount of prepaid resources for health is important to ensure access to health services and for the pursuit of universal health coverage. Previous studies on global health financing have described the relationship between economic development and health financing. In this study, we further explore global health financing trends and examine how the sources of funds used, types of services purchased, and development assistance for health disbursed change with economic development. We also identify countries that deviate from the trends.

METHODS

We estimated national health spending by type of care and by source, including development assistance for health, based on a diverse set of data including programme reports, budget data, national estimates, and 964 National Health Accounts. These data represent health spending for 184 countries from 1995 through 2014. We converted these data into a common inflation-adjusted and purchasing power-adjusted currency, and used non-linear regression methods to model the relationship between health financing, time, and economic development.

FINDINGS

Between 1995 and 2014, economic development was positively associated with total health spending and a shift away from a reliance on development assistance and out-of-pocket (OOP) towards government spending. The largest absolute increase in spending was in high-income countries, which increased to purchasing power-adjusted $5221 per capita based on an annual growth rate of 3·0%. The largest health spending growth rates were in upper-middle-income (5·9) and lower-middle-income groups (5·0), which both increased spending at more than 5% per year, and spent $914 and $267 per capita in 2014, respectively. Spending in low-income countries grew nearly as fast, at 4·6%, and health spending increased from $51 to $120 per capita. In 2014, 59·2% of all health spending was financed by the government, although in low-income and lower-middle-income countries, 29·1% and 58·0% of spending was OOP spending and 35·7% and 3·0% of spending was development assistance. Recent growth in development assistance for health has been tepid; between 2010 and 2016, it grew annually at 1·8%, and reached US$37·6 billion in 2016. Nonetheless, there is a great deal of variation revolving around these averages. 29 countries spend at least 50% more than expected per capita, based on their level of economic development alone, whereas 11 countries spend less than 50% their expected amount.

INTERPRETATION

Health spending remains disparate, with low-income and lower-middle-income countries increasing spending in absolute terms the least, and relying heavily on OOP spending and development assistance. Moreover, tremendous variation shows that neither time nor economic development guarantee adequate prepaid health resources, which are vital for the pursuit of universal health coverage.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

AMA1 and MAEBL are important for Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite infection of the liver

The malaria sporozoite injected by a mosquito migrates to the liver by traversing host cells. The sporozoite also traverses hepatocytes before invading a terminal hepatocyte and developing into exoerythrocytic forms. Hepatocyte infection is critical for parasite development into merozoites that infect erythrocytes, and the sporozoite is thus an important target for antimalarial intervention. Here, we investigated two abundant sporozoite proteins of the most virulent malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum and show that they play important roles during cell traversal and invasion of human hepatocytes. Incubation of P. falciparum sporozoites with R1 peptide, an inhibitor of apical merozoite antigen 1 (AMA1) that blocks merozoite invasion of erythrocytes, strongly reduced cell traversal activity. Consistent with its inhibitory effect on merozoites, R1 peptide also reduced sporozoite entry into human hepatocytes. The strong but incomplete inhibition prompted us to study the AMA-like protein, merozoite apical erythrocyte-binding ligand (MAEBL). MAEBL-deficient P. falciparum sporozoites were severely attenuated for cell traversal activity and hepatocyte entry in vitro and for liver infection in humanized chimeric liver mice. This study shows that AMA1 and MAEBL are important for P. falciparum sporozoites to perform typical functions necessary for infection of human hepatocytes. These two proteins therefore have important roles during infection at distinct points in the life cycle, including the blood, mosquito, and liver stages.

Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein II causes vascular leakage and exacerbates experimental cerebral malaria in mice

A devastating complication of Plasmodium falciparum infection is cerebral malaria, in which vascular leakage and cerebral swelling lead to coma and often death. P. falciparum produces a protein called histidine-rich protein II (HRPII) that accumulates to high levels in the bloodstream of patients and serves as a diagnostic and prognostic marker for falciparum malaria. Using a human cerebral microvascular endothelial barrier model, we previously found that HRPII activates the endothelial cell inflammasome, resulting in decreased integrity of tight junctions and increased endothelial barrier permeability. Here, we report that intravenous administration of HRPII induced blood-brain barrier leakage in uninfected mice. Furthermore, HRPII infusion in P. berghei-infected mice increased early mortality from experimental cerebral malaria. These data support the hypothesis that HRPII is a virulence factor that contributes to cerebral malaria by compromising the integrity of the blood-brain barrier.

High entomological inoculation rate of malaria vectors in area of high coverage of interventions in southwest Ethiopia: Implication for residual malaria transmission

In Ethiopia, vector control is the principal strategy to reduce the burden of malaria. The entomological indicators of malaria transmission such as density, sporozoite rate and entomological inoculation rate (EIR) are parameters used to assess the impact of the interventions and the intensity of malaria transmission. The susceptibility of malaria vectors also determines the effectiveness of insecticide based vector control tools. Hence, the aim of the study was to assess the species composition, sporozoite rate and EIR, and insecticide susceptibility status of malaria vectors. 33 houses (18 for Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light traps and 15 for exit traps) were randomly selected to sample Anopheles mosquitoes from October 2015 to May 2016. Plasmodium circum-sporozoite proteins (CSPs) of An. arabiensis and An. pharoensis were determined using Enzyme-Linked Immuno-Sorbent Assay (ELISA). Five Anopheles species were identified from CDC Light traps and exit traps. An. arabiensis (80.2%) was the predominant species, followed by An. pharoensis (18.5%). An. pretoriensis, An. tenebrosus and An. rhodesiensis were documented in small numbers. 1056 Anopheles mosquitoes were tested for CSPs. Of which nine (eight An. arabiensis and one An. pharoensis) were positive for CSPs with an overall CSP rate of 0.85% (95% CI: 0.3-1.4). Five Anopheles mosquitoes were positive for P. falciparum and four were positive for P.vivax_210. P. falciparum CSP rate of An. arabiensis was 0.46% (95% CI: 0.13-1.2) and it was 0.54% (95% CI: 0.01-2.9) for An. pharoensis. The overall EIR of An. arabiensis was 5.3 infectious bites per/person (ib/p)/eight months. An. arabiensis was resistant to dieldrin (mortality rate of 57%) and deltamethrin with mortality rates of 71% but was fully susceptible to propoxur and bendiocarb. Based on the EIR of An. arabiensis, indoor malaria transmission was high regardless of high coverage of indoor-based interventions. Finally, there was an indoor residual malaria transmission in a village of high coverage of bed nets and where the principal malaria vector is susceptibility to propoxur and bendiocarb; insecticides currently in use for indoor residual spraying. The continuing indoor transmission of malaria in such village implies the need for new tools to supplement the existing interventions and to reduce indoor malaria transmission.

Spectrum-Malaria: a user-friendly projection tool for health impact assessment and strategic planning by malaria control programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Scale-up of malaria prevention and treatment needs to continue but national strategies and budget allocations are not always evidence-based. This article presents a new modelling tool projecting malaria infection, cases and deaths to support impact evaluation, target setting and strategic planning.

METHODS

Nested in the Spectrum suite of programme planning tools, the model includes historic estimates of case incidence and deaths in groups aged up to 4, 5-14, and 15+ years, and prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection (PfPR) among children 2-9 years, for 43 sub-Saharan African countries and their 602 provinces, from the WHO and malaria atlas project. Impacts over 2016-2030 are projected for insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC), and effective management of uncomplicated cases (CMU) and severe cases (CMS), using statistical functions fitted to proportional burden reductions simulated in the P. falciparum dynamic transmission model OpenMalaria.

RESULTS

In projections for Nigeria, ITNs, IRS, CMU, and CMS scale-up reduced health burdens in all age groups, with largest proportional and especially absolute reductions in children up to 4 years old. Impacts increased from 8 to 10 years following scale-up, reflecting dynamic effects. For scale-up of each intervention to 80% effective coverage, CMU had the largest impacts across all health outcomes, followed by ITNs and IRS; CMS and SMC conferred additional small but rapid mortality impacts.

DISCUSSION

Spectrum-Malaria's user-friendly interface and intuitive display of baseline data and scenario projections holds promise to facilitate capacity building and policy dialogue in malaria programme prioritization. The module's linking to the OneHealth Tool for costing will support use of the software for strategic budget allocation. In settings with moderately low coverage levels, such as Nigeria, improving case management and achieving universal coverage with ITNs could achieve considerable burden reductions. Projections remain to be refined and validated with local expert input data and actual policy scenarios.

Taking the health aid debate to the subnational level: the impact and allocation of foreign health aid in Malawi

Objective

Cross-national studies provide inconclusive results as to the effectiveness of foreign health aid. We highlight a novel application of using subnational data to evaluate aid impacts, using Malawi as a case study.

Design

We employ two rounds of nationally representative household surveys (2004/2005 and 2010/2011) and geo-referenced foreign aid data. We examine the determinants of Malawi's traditional authorities receiving aid according to health, environmental risk, socioeconomic and political factors. We use two approaches to estimate the impact of aid on reducing malaria prevalence and increasing healthcare quality: difference-in-difference models, which include traditional authority and month-of-interview fixed effects and control for individual and household level time-varying factors, and entropy balancing, where models balance on health-related and socioeconomic baseline characteristics. General health aid and four specific health aid sectors are examined.

Results

Traditional authorities with greater proportions of individuals living in urban areas, more health facilities and greater proportions of those in major ethnic groups were more likely to receive aid. Difference-in-difference models show health infrastructure and parasitic disease control aid reduced malaria prevalence by 1.20 (95% CI −0.36 to 2.76) and 2.20 (95% CI 0.43 to 3.96) percentage points, respectively, and increased the likelihood of individuals reporting healthcare as more than adequate by 12.1 (95% CI 1.51 to 22.68) and 14.0 (95% CI 0.11 to 28.11) percentage points. Entropy balancing shows similar results.

Conclusions

Aid was targeted to areas with greater existing health infrastructure rather than areas most in need, but still effectively reduced malaria prevalence and enhanced self-reported healthcare quality.