Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought

Non-structural carbohydrate dynamics associated with drought-induced die-off in woody species of a shrubland community

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The relationship between plant carbon economy and drought responses of co-occurring woody species can be assessed by comparing carbohydrate (C) dynamics following drought and rain periods, relating these dynamics to species' functional traits. We studied nine woody species coexisting in a continental Mediterranean shrubland that experienced severe drought effects followed by rain.

METHODS

We measured total non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) and soluble sugars (SS) in roots and stems during drought and after an autumn rain pulse in plants exhibiting leaf loss and in undefoliated ones. We explored whether their dynamics were related to foliage recovery and functional traits (height [H], specific leaf area [SLA], wood density [WD]).

KEY RESULTS

During drought, NSC concentrations were overall lower in stems and roots of plants experiencing leaf loss, while SS decreases were smaller. Roots had higher NSC concentrations than stems. After the rain, NSC concentrations continued to decrease, while SS increased. Green foliage recovered after rain, particularly in plants previously experiencing higher leaf loss, independently of NSC concentrations during drought. Species with lower WD tended to have more SS during drought and lower SS increases after rain. In low-WD species, plants with severe leaf loss had lower NSC relative to undefoliated ones. No significant relationship was found between H or SLA and C content or dynamics.

CONCLUSIONS

Our community-level study reveals that, while responses were species-specific, C stocks overall diminished in plants affected by prolonged drought and did not increase after a pulse of seasonal rain. Dynamics were faster for SS than NSC. We found limited depletion of SS, consistent with their role in basal metabolic, transport and signalling functions. In a scenario of increased drought under climate change, NSC stocks in woody plants are expected to decrease differentially in coexisting species, with potential implications for their adaptive abilities and community dynamics.

Detecting early warning signals of tree mortality in boreal North America using multiscale satellite data

Increasing tree mortality from global change drivers such as drought and biotic infestations is a widespread phenomenon, including in the boreal zone where climate changes and feedbacks to the Earth system are relatively large. Despite the importance for science and management communities, our ability to forecast tree mortality at landscape to continental scales is limited. However, two independent information streams have the potential to inform and improve mortality forecasts: repeat forest inventories and satellite remote sensing. Time series of tree-level growth patterns indicate that productivity declines and related temporal dynamics often precede mortality years to decades before death. Plot-level productivity, in turn, has been related to satellite-based indices such as the Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Here we link these two data sources to show that early warning signals of mortality are evident in several NDVI-based metrics up to 24 years before death. We focus on two repeat forest inventories and three NDVI products across western boreal North America where productivity and mortality dynamics are influenced by periodic drought. These data sources capture a range of forest conditions and spatial resolution to highlight the sensitivity and limitations of our approach. Overall, results indicate potential to use satellite NDVI for early warning signals of mortality. Relationships are broadly consistent across inventories, species, and spatial resolutions, although the utility of coarse-scale imagery in the heterogeneous aspen parkland was limited. Longer-term NDVI data and annually remeasured sites with high mortality levels generate the strongest signals, although we still found robust relationships at sites remeasured at a typical 5 year frequency. The approach and relationships developed here can be used as a basis for improving forest mortality models and monitoring systems.

Quantifying in situ phenotypic variability in the hydraulic properties of four tree species across their distribution range in Europe

Many studies have reported that hydraulic properties vary considerably between tree species, but little is known about their intraspecific variation and, therefore, their capacity to adapt to a warmer and drier climate. Here, we quantify phenotypic divergence and clinal variation for embolism resistance, hydraulic conductivity and branch growth, in four tree species, two angiosperms (Betula pendula, Populus tremula) and two conifers (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris), across their latitudinal distribution in Europe. Growth and hydraulic efficiency varied widely within species and between populations. The variability of embolism resistance was in general weaker than that of growth and hydraulic efficiency, and very low for all species but Populus tremula. In addition, no and weak support for a safety vs. efficiency trade-off was observed for the angiosperm and conifer species, respectively. The limited variability of embolism resistance observed here for all species except Populus tremula, suggests that forest populations will unlikely be able to adapt hydraulically to drier conditions through the evolution of embolism resistance.

Forest resilience to drought varies across biomes

Forecasted increase drought frequency and severity may drive worldwide declines in forest productivity. Species-level responses to a drier world are likely to be influenced by their functional traits. Here, we analyse forest resilience to drought using an extensive network of tree-ring width data and satellite imagery. We compiled proxies of forest growth and productivity (TRWi, absolutely dated ring-width indices; NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) for 11 tree species and 502 forests in Spain corresponding to Mediterranean, temperate, and continental biomes. Four different components of forest resilience to drought were calculated based on TRWi and NDVI data before, during, and after four major droughts (1986, 1994-1995, 1999, and 2005), and pointed out that TRWi data were more sensitive metrics of forest resilience to drought than NDVI data. Resilience was related to both drought severity and forest composition. Evergreen gymnosperms dominating semi-arid Mediterranean forests showed the lowest resistance to drought, but higher recovery than deciduous angiosperms dominating humid temperate forests. Moreover, semi-arid gymnosperm forests presented a negative temporal trend in the resistance to drought, but this pattern was absent in continental and temperate forests. Although gymnosperms in dry Mediterranean forests showed a faster recovery after drought, their recovery potential could be constrained if droughts become more frequent. Conversely, angiosperms and gymnosperms inhabiting temperate and continental sites might have problems to recover after more intense droughts since they resist drought but are less able to recover afterwards.

Disequilibrium of fire-prone forests sets the stage for a rapid decline in conifer dominance during the 21st century

The impacts of climatic changes on forests may appear gradually on time scales of years to centuries due to the long generation times of trees. Consequently, current forest extent may not reflect current climatic patterns. In contrast with these lagged responses, abrupt transitions in forests under climate change may occur in environments where alternative vegetation states are influenced by disturbances, such as fire. The Klamath forest landscape (northern California and southwest Oregon, USA) is currently dominated by high biomass, biodiverse temperate coniferous forests, but climate change could disrupt the mechanisms promoting forest stability (e.g. growth, regeneration and fire tolerance). Using a landscape simulation model, we estimate that about one-third of the Klamath forest landscape (500,000 ha) could transition from conifer-dominated forest to shrub/hardwood chaparral, triggered by increased fire activity coupled with lower post-fire conifer establishment. Such shifts were widespread under the warmer climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5) but were surprisingly prevalent under the climate of 1949–2010, reflecting the joint influences of recent warming trends and the legacy of fire suppression that may have enhanced conifer dominance. Our results demonstrate that major forest ecosystem shifts should be expected when climate change disrupts key stabilizing feedbacks that maintain the dominance of long-lived, slowly regenerating trees.

Biophysical risks to carbon sequestration and storage in Australian drylands

Carbon abatement schemes that reduce land clearing and promote revegetation are now an important component of climate change policy globally. There is considerable potential for these schemes to operate in drylands which are spatially extensive. However, projects in these environments risk failure through unplanned release of stored carbon to the atmosphere. In this review, we identify factors that may adversely affect the success of vegetation-based carbon abatement projects in dryland ecosystems, evaluate their likelihood of occurrence, and estimate the potential consequences for carbon storage and sequestration. We also evaluate management strategies to reduce risks posed to these carbon abatement projects. Identified risks were primarily disturbances, including unplanned fire, drought, and grazing. Revegetation projects also risk recruitment failure, thereby failing to reach projected rates of sequestration. Many of these risks are dependent on rainfall, which is highly variable in drylands and susceptible to further variation under climate change. Resprouting vegetation is likely to be less vulnerable to disturbance and have faster recovery rates upon release from disturbance. We conclude that there is a strong impetus for identifying management strategies and risk reduction mechanisms for carbon abatement projects. Risk mitigation would be enhanced by effective co-ordination of mitigation strategies at scales larger than individual abatement project boundaries, and by implementing risk assessment throughout project planning and implementation stages. Reduction of risk is vital for maximising carbon sequestration of individual projects and for reducing barriers to the establishment of new projects entering the market.

Warming increases the sensitivity of seedling growth capacity to rainfall in six temperate deciduous tree species

Predicting the effects of climate change on tree species and communities is critical for understanding the future state of our forested ecosystems. We used a fully factorial precipitation (three levels; ambient, -50 % ambient, +50 % ambient) by warming (four levels; up to +4 °C) experiment in an old-field ecosystem in the northeastern USA to study the climatic sensitivity of seedlings of six native tree species. We measured whole plant-level responses: survival, total leaf area (TLA), seedling insect herbivory damage, as well as leaf-level responses: specific leaf area (SLA), leaf-level water content (LWC), foliar nitrogen (N) concentration, foliar carbon (C) concentration and C:N ratio of each of these deciduous species in each treatment across a single growing season. We found that canopy warming dramatically increased the sensitivity of plant growth (measured as TLA) to rainfall across all species. Warm, dry conditions consistently reduced TLA and also reduced leaf C:N in four species (Acer rubrum, Betula lenta, Prunus serotina, Ulmus americana), primarily as a result of reduced foliar C, not increased foliar N. Interestingly, these conditions also harmed the other two species in different ways, increasing either mortality (Populus grandidentata) or herbivory (Quercus rubra). Specific leaf area and LWC varied across species, but did not show strong treatment responses. Our results indicate that, in the northeastern USA, dry years in a future warmer environment could have damaging effects on the growth capacity of these early secondary successional forests, through species-specific effects on leaf production (total leaves and leaf C), herbivory and mortality.

Legacy Effects of Climate Extremes in Alpine Grassland

Climate change is particularly apparent in many mountainous regions, with warming rates of more than twice the global average being reported for the European Alps. As a result, the probability of climate extremes has increased and is expected to rise further. In an earlier study, we looked into immediate impacts of experimentally imposed heat waves in alpine grassland, and found that these systems were able to cope with heat as long as enough water was available. However, concomitant drought led to increased stress, and reduced aboveground biomass production and green plant cover. Here, we studied the legacy effects (lag-effects) of the imposed climate extreme to see whether delayed responses occurred and how fast the alpine grassland could rebound from the initial changes. Green cover continued to be suppressed the two following years in communities that had been exposed to the most intense hot drought, while aboveground biomass production had returned to control levels by year 2. The initial lower resistance of the forb fraction in the communities was not compensated by faster recovery later on. This resulted in alpine communities that became (and remained) relatively enriched with graminoids, which resisted the original extreme better. The responses of alpine grassland to heat extremes with or without drought observed in this study resemble those typically found in lowland grassland in the short term. However, alpine grassland exhibited longer legacy effects from an annual perspective, with delayed recovery of aboveground production and persistent changes in community composition. This suggests that once initial resistance thresholds are exceeded, impacts may be longer-lasting in alpine grassland, where recovery is constrained by both the short growing season and difficult seedling establishment.

Projecting Tree Species Composition Changes of European Forests for 2061-2090 Under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Scenarios

Climate change poses certain threats to the World's forests. That is, tree performance declines if species-specific, climatic thresholds are surpassed. Prominent climatic changes negatively affecting tree performance are mainly associated with so-called hotter droughts. In combination with biotic pathogens, hotter droughts cause a higher tree vulnerability and thus mortality. As a consequence, global forests are expected to undergo vast changes in the course of climate change. Changed climatic conditions may on the one hand locally result in more frequent dieback of a particular tree species but on the other hand allow other-locally yet absent species-to establish themselves, thereby potentially changing local tree-species diversity. Although several studies provide valuable insights into potential risks of prominent European tree species, we yet lack a comprehensive assessment on how and to which extent the composition of European forests may change. To overcome this research gap, we here project future tree-species compositions of European forests. We combine the concept of climate analogs with national forest inventory data to project the tree-species composition for the 26 most important European tree species at any given location in Europe for the period 2061-2090 and the two most relevant CMIP5 scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Our results indicate significant changes in European forests species compositions. Species richness generally declined in the Mediterranean and Central European lowlands, while Scandinavian and Central European high-elevation forests were projected an increasing diversity. Moreover, 76% (RCP 4.5) and 80% (RCP 8.5) of the investigated locations indicated a decreasing abundance of the locally yet most abundant tree species while 74 and 68% were projected an increasing tree-species diversity. Altogether, our study confirms the expectation of European forests undergoing remarkable changes until the end of the 21st century (i.e., 2061-2090) and provides a scientific basement for climate change adaptation with important implications for forestry and nature conservation.

Modelling long-term impacts of changes in climate, nitrogen deposition and ozone exposure on carbon sequestration of European forest ecosystems

We modelled the effects of past and expected future changes in climate (temperature, precipitation), CO₂ concentration, nitrogen deposition (N) and ozone (O₃) exposure (phytotoxic ozone dose, POD) on carbon (C) sequestration by European forest ecosystems for the period 1900-2050. Tree C sequestration was assessed by using empirical response functions, while soil C sequestration was simulated with the process-based model VSD, combined with the RothC model. We evaluated two empirical growth responses to N deposition (linear and non-linear) and two O₃ exposure relationships (linear function with total biomass or net annual increment). We further investigated an 'interactive model' with interactions between drivers and a 'multiplicative model', in which the combined effect is the product of individual drivers. A single deposition and climate scenario was used for the period 1900-2050. Contrary to expectations, growth observations at European level for the period 1950-2010 compared better with predictions by the multiplicative model than with the interactive model. This coincides with the fact that carbon responses in kgCha^-1yr^-1 per unit change in drivers, i.e. per °C, ppm CO₂, kgNha^-1yr^-1 and mmolm^-2yr^-1 POD, are more in line with literature data when using the multiplicative model. Compared to 1900, the estimated European average total C sequestration in both forests and forest soils between 1950 and 2000 increased by 21% in the interactive model and by 41% in the multiplicative model, but observed changes were even higher. This growth increase is expected to decline between 2000 and 2050. The simulated changes between 1950 and 2000 were mainly due to the increase in both N deposition and CO₂, while the predicted increases between 2000 and 2050 were mainly caused by the increase in CO₂ and temperature, and to lesser extent a decrease in POD, counteracted by reduced N deposition.

Increasing carbon discrimination rates and depth of water uptake favor the growth of Mediterranean evergreen trees in the ecotone with temperate deciduous forests

Tree populations at the low-altitudinal or -latitudinal limits of species' distributional ranges are predicted to retreat toward higher altitudes and latitudes to track the ongoing changes in climate. Studies have focused on the climatic sensitivity of the retreating species, whereas little is known about the potential replacements. Competition between tree species in forest ecotones will likely be strongly influenced by the ecophysiological responses to heat and drought. We used tree-ring widths and δ¹³ C and δ¹⁸ O chronologies to compare the growth rates and long-term ecophysiological responses to climate in the temperate-Mediterranean ecotone formed by the deciduous Fagus sylvatica and the evergreen Quercus ilex at the low altitudinal and southern latitudinal limit of F. sylvatica (NE Iberian Peninsula). F. sylvatica growth rates were similar to those of other southern populations and were surprisingly not higher than those of Q. ilex, which were an order of magnitude higher than those in nearby drier sites. Higher Q. ilex growth rates were associated with high temperatures, which have increased carbon discrimination rates in the last 25 years. In contrast, stomatal regulation in F. sylvatica was proportional to the increase in atmospheric CO₂ . Tree-ring δ¹⁸ O for both species were mostly correlated with δ¹⁸ O in the source water. In contrast to many previous studies, relative humidity was not negatively correlated with tree-ring δ¹⁸ O but had a positive effect on Q. ilex tree-ring δ¹⁸ O. Furthermore, tree-ring δ¹⁸ O decreased in Q. ilex over time. The sensitivity of Q. ilex to climate likely reflects the uptake of deep water that allowed it to benefit from the effect of CO₂ fertilization, in contrast to the water-limited F. sylvatica. Consequently, Q. ilex is a strong competitor at sites currently dominated by F. sylvatica and could be favored by increasingly warmer conditions.

Coupled effects of wind-storms and drought on tree mortality across 115 forest stands from the Western Alps and the Jura mountains

Damage due to wind-storms and droughts is increasing in many temperate forests, yet little is known about the long-term roles of these key climatic factors in forest dynamics and in the carbon budget. The objective of this study was to estimate individual and coupled effects of droughts and wind-storms on adult tree mortality across a 31-year period in 115 managed, mixed coniferous forest stands from the Western Alps and the Jura mountains. For each stand, yearly mortality was inferred from management records, yearly drought from interpolated fields of monthly temperature, precipitation and soil water holding capacity, and wind-storms from interpolated fields of daily maximum wind speed. We performed a thorough model selection based on a leave-one-out cross-validation of the time series. We compared different critical wind speeds (CWSs) for damage, wind-storm, and stand variables and statistical models. We found that a model including stand characteristics, drought, and storm strength using a CWS of 25 ms^-1 performed the best across most stands. Using this best model, we found that drought increased damage risk only in the most southerly forests, and its effect is generally maintained for up to 2 years. Storm strength increased damage risk in all forests in a relatively uniform way. In some stands, we found positive interaction between drought and storm strength most likely because drought weakens trees, and they became more prone to stem breakage under wind-loading. In other stands, we found negative interaction between drought and storm strength, where excessive rain likely leads to soil water saturation making trees more susceptible to overturning in a wind-storm. Our results stress that temporal data are essential to make valid inferences about ecological impacts of disturbance events, and that making inferences about disturbance agents separately can be of limited validity. Under projected future climatic conditions, the direction and strength of these ecological interactions could also change.

Climate variability drives recent tree mortality in Europe

Tree mortality is an important process in forest ecosystems, frequently hypothesized to be highly climate sensitive. Yet, tree death remains one of the least understood processes of forest dynamics. Recently, changes in tree mortality have been observed in forests around the globe, which could profoundly affect ecosystem functioning and services provisioning to society. We describe continental-scale patterns of recent tree mortality from the only consistent pan-European forest monitoring network, identifying recent mortality hotspots in southern and northern Europe. Analyzing 925,462 annual observations of 235,895 trees between 2000 and 2012, we determine the influence of climate variability and tree age on interannual variation in tree mortality using Cox proportional hazard models. Warm summers as well as high seasonal variability in precipitation increased the likelihood of tree death. However, our data also suggest that reduced cold-induced mortality could compensate increased mortality related to peak temperatures in a warming climate. Besides climate variability, age was an important driver of tree mortality, with individual mortality probability decreasing with age over the first century of a trees life. A considerable portion of the observed variation in tree mortality could be explained by satellite-derived net primary productivity, suggesting that widely available remote sensing products can be used as an early warning indicator of widespread tree mortality. Our findings advance the understanding of patterns of large-scale tree mortality by demonstrating the influence of seasonal and diurnal climate variation, and highlight the potential of state-of-the-art remote sensing to anticipate an increased likelihood of tree mortality in space and time.

Ozone exposure affects tree defoliation in a continental climate

Ground-level ozone (O₃) affects trees through visible leaf injury, accelerating leaf senescence, declining foliar chlorophyll content, photosynthetic activity, growth, carbon sequestration, predisposing to pests attack and a variety of other physiological effects. Tree crown defoliation is one of the most important parameters that is representative of forest health and vitality. Effects of air pollution on forests have been investigated through manipulative experiments that are not representative of the real environmental conditions observed in the field. In this work we investigated the role of O₃ concentration and other metrics (AOT40 and POD0) in affecting crown defoliation in temperate Romanian forests. The impacts of O₃ were estimated in combination with nitrogen pollutants, climatic factors and orographic conditions, by applying a non-linear modelling approach (Random Forest and Generalised Regression Models). Ozone concentration and AOT40 under Romanian conditions were more important than meteorological parameters in affecting crown defoliation. In these particular conditions, POD0 never exceeded the critical level suggested by previous literature for forest protection, and thus was not important in affecting crown defoliation.

Effects of biotic and abiotic factors on resistance versus resilience of Douglas fir to drought

Significant increases in tree mortality due to drought-induced physiological stress have been documented worldwide. This trend is likely to continue with increased frequency and severity of extreme drought events in the future. Therefore, understanding the factors that influence variability in drought responses among trees will be critical to predicting ecosystem responses to climate change and developing effective management actions. In this study, we used hierarchical mixed-effects models to analyze drought responses of Pseudotsuga menziesii in 20 unmanaged forests stands across a broad range of environmental conditions in northeastern Washington, USA. We aimed to 1) identify the biotic and abiotic attributes most closely associated with the responses of individual trees to drought and 2) quantify the variability in drought responses at different spatial scales. We found that growth rates and competition for resources significantly affected resistance to a severe drought event in 2001: slow-growing trees and trees growing in subordinate canopy positions and/or with more neighbors suffered greater declines in radial growth during the drought event. In contrast, the ability of a tree to return to normal growth when climatic conditions improved (resilience) was unaffected by competition or relative growth rates. Drought responses were significantly influenced by tree age: older trees were more resistant but less resilient than younger trees. Finally, we found differences between resistance and resilience in spatial scale: a significant proportion (approximately 50%) of the variability in drought resistance across the study area was at broad spatial scales (i.e. among different forest types), most likely due to differences in the total amount of precipitation received at different elevations; in contrast, variation in resilience was overwhelmingly (82%) at the level of individual trees within stands and there was no difference in drought resilience among forest types. Our results suggest that for Pseudotsuga menziesii resistance and resilience to drought are driven by different factors and vary at different spatial scales.

Quantification of monoterpene emission sources of a conifer species in response to experimental drought

Monoterpene (MT) emissions of conifer tree species, emitted from de novo synthesis and storage pools, play an important role in plant ecology and physiology. During drought stress both emission sources are affected differently and with conventional measuring techniques they are difficult to separate. We investigated 13C labelled MT emission of eight 3-year-old Scots pine seedlings in a drought stress experiment using a dynamic gas exchange chamber system (Tree DEMON). Monoterpene, water vapour and CO2 gas exchange were measured for a 2-day normal watering, a 11-day treatment and a 3-day re-watering period. In each period all trees were 13C labelled once for 5 h. Results showed the expected decrease of MT, water vapour and CO2 gas exchange with decreasing soil water content. However, during re-watering water vapour and CO2 gas exchange recovered fast to pre-drought levels, whereas MT increased to a lower level compared to the initial non-stressed phase. The 13C labelling showed highly variable %13C values for different MTs, which ranged compound-specific from 0.5 to 95 % for unstressed trees. Overall, around 36 ± 5 % of the total emission rate originated from de novo synthesized MTs during the 2-day prior to stress period. During full drought, the de novo fraction was reduced to 3 %. For the re-watering phase de novo emissions recovered only partly to 20 %, while pool emissions reached pre-drought conditions. Thus, emissions of de novo synthesized MTs of Scots pine are down-regulated by soil drought rather than MT emissions from pools.

Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback

Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large-scale forest mortality events will have far-reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die-off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long-lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self-thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole-tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large-scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This refined understanding can facilitate better projections of structural overshoot responses, enabling improved prediction of changes in forest distribution and function from regional to global scales.

Impact of Soil Warming on the Plant Metabolome of Icelandic Grasslands

Climate change is stronger at high than at temperate and tropical latitudes. The natural geothermal conditions in southern Iceland provide an opportunity to study the impact of warming on plants, because of the geothermal bedrock channels that induce stable gradients of soil temperature. We studied two valleys, one where such gradients have been present for centuries (long-term treatment), and another where new gradients were created in 2008 after a shallow crustal earthquake (short-term treatment). We studied the impact of soil warming (0 to +15 °C) on the foliar metabolomes of two common plant species of high northern latitudes: Agrostis capillaris, a monocotyledon grass; and Ranunculus acris, a dicotyledonous herb, and evaluated the dependence of shifts in their metabolomes on the length of the warming treatment. The two species responded differently to warming, depending on the length of exposure. The grass metabolome clearly shifted at the site of long-term warming, but the herb metabolome did not. The main up-regulated compounds at the highest temperatures at the long-term site were saccharides and amino acids, both involved in heat-shock metabolic pathways. Moreover, some secondary metabolites, such as phenolic acids and terpenes, associated with a wide array of stresses, were also up-regulated. Most current climatic models predict an increase in annual average temperature between 2-8 °C over land masses in the Arctic towards the end of this century. The metabolomes of A. capillaris and R. acris shifted abruptly and nonlinearly to soil warming >5 °C above the control temperature for the coming decades. These results thus suggest that a slight warming increase may not imply substantial changes in plant function, but if the temperature rises more than 5 °C, warming may end up triggering metabolic pathways associated with heat stress in some plant species currently dominant in this region.

Potential use of the PRI and active fluorescence for the diagnosis of the physiological state of plants under ozone exposure and high atmospheric vapor pressure deficit

Assessing photosynthesis rates with remote sensing is important for tracking the physiological state of plants. The photochemical reflectance index (PRI) is a good estimator of short-term light-use efficiency (LUE) at the leaf scale but its responses to environmental factors are poorly understood. In this study, we assessed changes in the responses of the PRI to ozone exposure and to an increase in atmospheric drought (separately and combined) in oak (Quercus robur) and holm oak (Quercus ilex) that were planted in climatic cells under controlled conditions. The aim was to evaluate the ability of the PRI as a relevant indicator to assess the impact of abiotic factors on photosynthesis. Leaf-scale measurements of biochemical, physiological and spectral properties, including the PRI in dim light on dark-adapted leaves (PRI₀), kinetics of PRI responses to PAR variations (photosynthetically active radiation), and leaf chlorophyll fluorescence parameters were performed. The results show that PRI₀ is a good proxy of the leaf chlorophyll content, and is correlated to chlorophyll fluorescence parameters on dark adapted leaves (F_o, F_m). The correction of the PRI from the leaf chlorophyll content variations (PRI_c) significantly improves correlations between the PRI and NPQ (non-photochemical quenching). The variability of PAR_sat (estimated PAR value at PRI saturation using PRI vs. PAR relationships) depends on ozone exposure and on the increase in atmospheric vapor pressure deficit. For Quercus robur, results highlight that PAR_sat is linked to abiotic stress indicating that the PRI may be used as a relevant indicator of abiotic factors limiting the photosynthesis. Quercus ilex did not show significant variability in PRI₀ and PAR_sat, which suggest that it is a more drought resistant species than Q. robur.

Long-term effects of climate change on carbon storage and tree species composition in a dry deciduous forest

Forest vegetation and soils have been suggested as potentially important sinks for carbon (C) with appropriate management and thus are implicated as effective tools in stabilizing climate even with increasing anthropogenic release of CO₂ . Drought, however, which is often predicted to increase in models of future climate change, may limit net primary productio (NPP) of dry forest types, with unknown effects on soil C storage. We studied C dynamics of a deciduous temperate forest of Hungary that has been subject to significant decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature in recent decades. We resampled plots that were established in 1972 and repeated the full C inventory by analyzing more than 4 decades of data on the number of living trees, biomass of trees and shrubs, and soil C content. Our analyses show that the decline in number and biomass of oaks started around the end of the 1970s with a 71% reduction in the number of sessile oak stems by 2014. Projected growth in this forest, based on the yield table's data for Hungary, was 4.6 kg C/m² . Although new species emerged, this new growth and small increases in oak biomass resulted in only 1.9 kg C/m² increase over 41 years. The death of oaks increased inputs of coarse woody debris to the surface of the soil, much of which is still identifiable, and caused an increase of 15.5%, or 2.6 kg C/m² , in the top 1 m of soil. Stability of this fresh organic matter input to surface soil is unknown, but is likely to be low based on the results of a colocated woody litter decomposition study. The effects of a warmer and drier climate on the C balance of forests in this region will be felt for decades to come as woody litter inputs decay, and forest growth remains impeded.

Fine-scale species distribution changes in a mixed oak stand over two successive generations

Large-scale tree distribution changes have received considerable attention but underlying demo-genetic mechanisms are less well documented. We used a diachronic approach to track species shifts in a mixed oak stand (Quercus petraea-Quercus robur) at a fine spatiotemporal scale. Species assignment was made using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) fingerprints employing clustering and parentage analysis. Mating patterns and reproductive success were assessed by parentage analysis. Plot-based inventories of soil parameters and sapling densities provided ecological and demographic information, respectively. Sapling density and reproductive success was higher in Q. petraea than in Q. robur, and were correlated with a spatial expansion of Q. petraea (50% to 67% of the area). Admixed trees resulting from hybridization and backcrossing between the two species were more frequent under the Q. robur canopy. We suspect that species' differential responses to ongoing environmental changes and interspecific competition are the predominant factors accounting for the recruitment success of Q. petraea, while human interference, differential reproduction and hybridization (and backcrossings) are probably of more limited importance. We anticipate in mixed Q. petraea-Q. robur stands, under current ongoing environmental change, that these processes will be enhanced, at least in the western part of the distribution of the two species.

Thermotolerance capacities of native and exotic coastal plants will lead to changes in species composition under increased heat waves

With an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events, plants are likely to reach their thermal limits and show slower growth or increased mortality. We investigated differences amongst coastal native and invasive shrubs and grasses to investigate if particular species might be more at risk in the future. Using an ecologically relevant experimental set of heat waves over a month, we assessed changes in biomass and photosynthetic efficiency in a laboratory setting using 25 coastal Australian species divided into native and exotic shrubs, and native and exotic grasses. We also compared three C3 and three C4 grasses within the native and exotic groups. Overall, native shrubs suffered higher mortality, lower growth and increased photosynthetic stress. There was some evidence that C3 grasses, had lower growth with heat waves, compared to C4 species although, in general, grasses showed evidence of photosynthetic acclimation over the month. Increases in leaf abscission suggest that part of the acclimation process was to develop new, thermally tolerant leaves. Our results indicate that in the future we would expect an increase in exotic shrubs and grasses occupying spaces in coastal plant communities that arise from native mortality following extreme heat events. Management of these coastal communities will need to focus strongly on maintaining a diverse native shrub composition that can resist climate-based disturbances (such as wildfire), as well as controlling the extent and biomass of exotic species, if coastal communities are to remain healthy and diverse in a changing climate.

Isohydric species are not necessarily more carbon limited than anisohydric species during drought

Isohydry (i.e., strong regulation of leaf water potential, Ψl) is commonly associated with strict stomatal regulation of transpiration under drought, which in turn is believed to minimize hydraulic risk at the expense of reduced carbon assimilation. Hence, the iso/anisohydric classification has been widely used to assess drought resistance and mortality mechanisms across species, with isohydric species being hypothetically more prone to carbon starvation and anisohydric species more vulnerable to hydraulic failure. These hypotheses and their underlying assumptions, however, have rarely been tested under controlled, experimental conditions. Our objective is to assess the physiological mechanisms underlying drought resistance differences between two co-occurring Mediterranean forest species with contrasting drought responses: Phillyrea latifolia L. (anisohydric and more resistant to drought) and Quercus ilex L. (isohydric and less drought resistant). A total of 100 large saplings (50 per species) were subjected to repeated drought treatments for a period of 3 years, after which Q. ilex showed 18% mortality whereas no mortality was detected in P. latifolia. Relatively isohydric behavior was confirmed for Q. ilex, but higher vulnerability to cavitation in this species implied that estimated embolism levels were similar across species (12-52% in Q. ilex vs ~30% in P. latifolia). We also found similar seasonal patterns of stomatal conductance and assimilation between species. If anything, the anisohydric P. latifolia tended to show lower assimilation rates than Q. ilex under extreme drought. Similar growth rates and carbon reserves dynamics in both species also suggests that P. latifolia was as carbon-constrained as Q. ilex. Increasing carbon reserves under extreme drought stress in both species, concurrent with Q. ilex mortality, suggests that mortality in our study was not triggered by carbon starvation. Our results warn against making direct connections between Ψl regulation, stomatal behavior and the mechanisms of drought-induced mortality in plants.

Can local adaptation explain varying patterns of herbivory tolerance in a recently introduced woody plant in North America?

Patterns of woody-plant mortality have been linked to global-scale environmental changes, such as extreme drought, heat stress, more frequent and intense fires, and episodic outbreaks of insects and pathogens. Although many studies have focussed on survival and mortality in response to specific physiological stresses, little attention has been paid to the role of genetic heritability of traits and local adaptation in influencing patterns of plant mortality, especially in non-native species. Tamarix spp. is a dominant, non-native riparian tree in western North America that is experiencing dieback in some areas of its range due to episodic herbivory by the recently introduced northern tamarisk leaf beetle (Diorhabda carinulata). We propose that genotype × environment interactions largely underpin current and future patterns of Tamarix mortality. We anticipate that (i) despite its recent introduction, and the potential for significant gene flow, Tamarix in western North America is generally adapted to local environmental conditions across its current range in part due to hybridization of two species; (ii) local adaptation to specific climate, soil and resource availability will yield predictable responses to episodic herbivory; and (iii) the ability to cope with a combination of episodic herbivory and increased aridity associated with climate change will be largely based on functional tradeoffs in resource allocation. This review focusses on the potential heritability of plant carbon allocation patterns in Tamarix, focussing on the relative contribution of acquired carbon to non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) pools versus other sinks as the basis for surviving episodic disturbance. Where high aridity and/or poor edaphic position lead to chronic stress, NSC pools may fall below a minimum threshold because of an imbalance between the supply of carbon and its demand by various sinks. Identifying patterns of local adaptation of traits related to resource allocation will improve forecasting of Tamarix population susceptibility to episodic herbivory.

Landscape dynamics in Mediterranean oak forests under global change: understanding the role of anthropogenic and environmental drivers across forest types

The Mediterranean region is projected to be extremely vulnerable to global change, which will affect the distribution of typical forest types such as native oak forests. However, our understanding of Mediterranean oak forest responses to future conditions is still very limited by the lack of knowledge on oak forest dynamics and species-specific responses to multiple drivers. We compared the long-term (1966-2006) forest persistence and land cover change among evergreen (cork oak and holm oak) and deciduous oak forests and evaluated the importance of anthropogenic and environmental drivers on observed changes for Portugal. We used National Forest Inventories to quantify the changes in oak forests and explored the drivers of change using multinomial logistic regression analysis and an information theoretical approach. We found distinct trends among oak forest types, reflecting the differences in oak economic value, protection status and management schemes: cork oak forests were the most persistent (62%), changing mostly to pines and eucalypt; holm oak forests were less persistent (53.2%), changing mostly to agriculture; and deciduous oak forests were the least persistent (45.7%), changing mostly to shrublands. Drivers of change had distinct importance across oak forest types, but drivers from anthropogenic origin (wildfires, population density, and land accessibility) were always among the most important. Climatic extremes were also important predictors of oak forest changes, namely extreme temperatures for evergreen oak forests and deficit of precipitation for deciduous oak forests. Our results indicate that under increasing human pressure and forecasted climate change, evergreen oak forests will continue declining and deciduous oak forests will be replaced by forests dominated by more xeric species. In the long run, multiple disturbances may change competitive dominance from oak forests to pyrophytic shrublands. A better understanding of forest dynamics and the inclusion of anthropogenic drivers on models of vegetation change will improve predicting the future of Mediterranean oak forests.

Highest drought sensitivity and lowest resistance to growth suppression are found in the range core of the tree Fagus sylvatica L. not the equatorial range edge

Biogeographical and ecological theory suggests that species distributions should be driven to higher altitudes and latitudes as global temperatures rise. Such changes occur as growth improves at the poleward edge of a species distribution and declines at the range edge in the opposite or equatorial direction, mirrored by changes in the establishment of new individuals. A substantial body of evidence demonstrates that such processes are underway for a wide variety of species. Case studies from populations at the equatorial range edge of a variety of woody species have led us to understand that widespread growth decline and distributional shifts are underway. However, in apparent contrast, other studies report high productivity and reproduction in some range edge populations. We sought to assess temporal trends in the growth of the widespread European beech tree (Fagus sylvatica) across its latitudinal range. We explored the stability of populations to major drought events and the implications for predicted widespread growth decline at its equatorial range edge. In contrast to expectations, we found greatest sensitivity and low resistance to drought in the core of the species range, whilst dry range edge populations showed particularly high resistance to drought and little evidence of drought-linked growth decline. We hypothesize that this high range edge resistance to drought is driven primarily by local environmental factors that allow relict populations to persist despite regionally unfavourable climate. The persistence of such populations demonstrates that range-edge decline is not ubiquitous and is likely to be driven by declining population density at the landscape scale rather than sudden and widespread range retraction.