Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations

Mortality in Russia Since the Fall of the Soviet Union

Adult mortality increased enormously in Russia and other countries of the former Soviet Union when the Soviet system collapsed 30 years ago. What has happened to mortality in Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union? What explains the wide swings of mortality over time? This paper documents changes in mortality in Russia since 1989, and reviews the research in the economics and public health literature on the causes of the changes. The focus is on the post-2000 period, and the possible role played in recent declining mortality rates by Russia's alcohol and tobacco control policies. The two themes that emerge are (1) that government policies are critical for understanding both rising and falling male mortality over this period, and (2) that the underlying causes of the mortality crisis and its reversal are difficult to clearly identify empirically and remain, at best, partially understood, leaving much scope for future research on this issue.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1057/s41294-021-00169-w.

Psychosocial Predictors of Intention to Vaccinate Against the Coronavirus (COVID-19)

The COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc across the world. Public health efforts to combat the disease and return life to normalcy largely rests upon COVID-19 vaccination distribution and uptake. Thus, it is critical to examine factors that predict people's intentions to vaccinate. This study explored predictors of intention to vaccinate against COVID-19 among demographic and personal factors, health behaviors and beliefs, COVID-19-specific beliefs, and trust in physicians, using a sample of U.S. adults. We employed bivariate correlations and hierarchical regression to analyze the data. We found that the strongest predictors are political orientation, trust in physicians, subjective norms, and prior flu shot uptake. These associations suggest that individuals who held more liberal political views, expressed higher levels of trust in their primary care provider, perceived stronger social pressure to vaccinate against COVID-19, and received a flu shot during the previous flu season, had a stronger intention to vaccinate against COVID-19. Based on our results, we suggest that public health efforts to increase vaccination uptake for COVID-19 vaccines focus on addressing political orientation (conservatism), involve primary care providers, emphasize vaccination as the norm (and not the exception), and use information about previous flu vaccinations to target vaccination campaigns.

Impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy at birth in India: a decomposition analysis

BACKGROUND

Quantifying excess deaths and their impact on life expectancy at birth (e0) provide a more comprehensive understanding of the burden of coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) on mortality. The study aims to comprehend the repercussions of the burden of COVID-19 disease on the life expectancy at birth and inequality in age at death in India.

METHODS

The mortality schedule of COVID-19 disease in the pandemic year 2020 was considered one of the causes of death in the category of other infectious diseases in addition to other 21 causes of death in the non-pandemic year 2019 in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data. The measures e0 and Gini coefficient at age zero (G0) and then sex differences in e0 and G0 over time were analysed by assessing the age-specific contributions based on the application of decomposition analyses in the entire period of 2010-2020.

RESULTS

The e0 for men and women decline from 69.5 and 72.0 years in 2019 to 67.5 and 69.8 years, respectively, in 2020. The e0 shows a drop of approximately 2.0 years in 2020 when compared to 2019. The sex differences in e0 and G0 are negatively skewed towards men. The trends in e0 and G0 value reveal that its value in 2020 is comparable to that in the early 2010s. The age group of 35-79 years showed a remarkable negative contribution to Δe0 and ΔG0. By causes of death, the COVID-19 disease has contributed - 1.5 and - 9.5%, respectively, whereas cardiovascular diseases contributed the largest value of was 44.6 and 45.9%, respectively, to sex differences in e0 and G0 in 2020. The outcomes reveal a significant impact of excess deaths caused by the COVID-19 disease on mortality patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic has negative repercussions on e0 and G0 in the pandemic year 2020. It has severely affected the distribution of age at death in India, resulting in widening the sex differences in e0 and G0. The COVID-19 disease demonstrates its potential to cancel the gains of six to eight years in e0 and five years in G0 and has slowed the mortality transition in India.

Covariance Between Parent and Child Symptoms Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

OBJECTIVE

COVID-19 has had unprecedented effects on American families, including increases in depression, anxiety, and irritability for both parents and children. While parents and children influence each other's psychological functioning during non-disaster times, this effect may be amplified during times of disaster. The current study investigated how COVID-19 influenced covariance of depressive symptoms and irritability in children and their parents.

METHODS

Three hundred and ninety-one parents and their 8- to 17-year-old children (Mage = 10.68 years old, 70% male, 86% White) from a large sample of children and parents, primarily from Southeastern Louisiana, completed self-report measures of depression and irritability approximately 6 weeks into the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as providing retrospective reports of their symptoms prior to the pandemic. Actor-partner interdependence models were used to measure the reciprocal effects of parent symptoms on children and vice versa, both before and during the pandemic.

RESULTS

Actor effects in both the depressive symptoms and irritability models suggested that pre-COVID-19 depressive symptoms and irritability were robust predictors of early-COVID-19 depressive symptoms and irritability for both parents and children. Partner effects were also detected in the irritability model, in that parental irritability prior to COVID-19 was associated with decreased child irritability during the pandemic. Both before and during the pandemic, associations between parent and child depressive symptoms and irritability scores were weaker in families evidencing greater dysfunction.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest that COVID-19-related stress is associated with increases in both parent and child symptomatology, and that family relationships likely influence associations between these symptoms.

Development and Actionability of the Dutch COVID-19 Dashboard: Descriptive Assessment and Expert Appraisal Study

Background

Web-based public reporting by means of dashboards has become an essential tool for governments worldwide to monitor COVID-19 information and communicate it to the public. The actionability of such dashboards is determined by their fitness for purpose—meeting a specific information need—and fitness for use—placing the right information into the right hands at the right time and in a manner that can be understood.

Objective

The aim of this study was to identify specific areas where the actionability of the Dutch government’s COVID-19 dashboard could be improved, with the ultimate goal of enhancing public understanding of the pandemic.

Methods

The study was conducted from February 2020 to April 2021. A mixed methods approach was carried out, using (1) a descriptive checklist over time to monitor changes made to the dashboard, (2) an actionability scoring of the dashboard to pinpoint areas for improvement, and (3) a reflection meeting with the dashboard development team to contextualize findings and discuss areas for improvement.

Results

The dashboard predominantly showed epidemiological information on COVID-19. It had been developed and adapted by adding more in-depth indicators, more geographic disaggregation options, and new indicator themes. It also changed in target audience from policy makers to the general public; thus, a homepage was added with the most important information, using news-like items to explain the provided indicators and conducting research to enhance public understanding of the dashboard. However, disaggregation options such as sex, socioeconomic status, and ethnicity and indicators on dual-track health system management and social and economic impact that have proven to give important insights in other countries are missing from the Dutch COVID-19 dashboard, limiting its actionability.

Conclusions

The Dutch COVID-19 dashboard developed over time its fitness for purpose and use in terms of providing epidemiological information to the general public as a target audience. However, to strengthen the Dutch health system’s ability to cope with upcoming phases of the COVID-19 pandemic or future public health emergencies, we advise (1) establishing timely indicators relating to health system capacity, (2) including relevant data disaggregation options (eg, sex, socioeconomic status), and (3) enabling interoperability between social, health, and economic data sources.

Short Physical Performance Battery as a Measure of Physical Performance and Mortality Predictor in Older Adults: A Comprehensive Literature Review

The association between the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) score and several adverse health outcomes, including mortality, has been reported in the scientific literature. We conducted a comprehensive literature review of studies on the relationship between SPPB and mortality. The current paper synthesizes the characteristics and main findings of longitudinal studies available in the literature that investigated the role of the SPPB in predicting mortality in older adults. The studies (n = 40) are from North America, South America, Europe, and Asia; the majority (n = 16) were conducted with community-dwelling older adults and reported an association between lower SPPB scores and a higher risk of mortality, and between higher SPPB scores and higher survival. Nevertheless, few studies have analyzed the accuracy of the instrument to predict mortality. The only study that established cut-off points was conducted with older adults discharged from an acute care hospital. Although an SPPB score lower than 10 seems to predict all-cause mortality, further studies showing cut-off points in specific settings and loco-regional specificities are still necessary.

Inequality in mortality between Black and White Americans by age, place, and cause and in comparison to Europe, 1990 to 2018

Although there is a large gap between Black and White American life expectancies, the gap fell 48.9% between 1990 and 2018, mainly due to mortality declines among Black Americans. We examine age-specific mortality trends and racial gaps in life expectancy in high- and low-income US areas and with reference to six European countries. Inequalities in life expectancy are starker in the United States than in Europe. In 1990, White Americans and Europeans in high-income areas had similar overall life expectancy, while life expectancy for White Americans in low-income areas was lower. However, since then, even high-income White Americans have lost ground relative to Europeans. Meanwhile, the gap in life expectancy between Black Americans and Europeans decreased by 8.3%. Black American life expectancy increased more than White American life expectancy in all US areas, but improvements in lower-income areas had the greatest impact on the racial life expectancy gap. The causes that contributed the most to Black Americans' mortality reductions included cancer, homicide, HIV, and causes originating in the fetal or infant period. Life expectancy for both Black and White Americans plateaued or slightly declined after 2012, but this stalling was most evident among Black Americans even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. If improvements had continued at the 1990 to 2012 rate, the racial gap in life expectancy would have closed by 2036. European life expectancy also stalled after 2014. Still, the comparison with Europe suggests that mortality rates of both Black and White Americans could fall much further across all ages and in both high-income and low-income areas.

Schoenberg N. COVID-19 and the impact on rural and black church Congregants: Results of the C-M-C project

The COVID-19 pandemic has had devastating effects on Black and rural populations with a mortality rate among Blacks three times that of Whites and both rural and Black populations experiencing limited access to COVID-19 resources. The primary purpose of this study was to explore the health, financial, and psychological impact of COVID-19 among rural White Appalachian and Black nonrural central Kentucky church congregants. Secondarily we sought to examine the association between sociodemographics and behaviors, attitudes, and beliefs regarding COVID-19 and intent to vaccinate. We used a cross sectional survey design developed with the constructs of the Health Belief and Theory of Planned Behavior models. The majority of the 942 respondents were ≥36 years. A total of 54% were from central Kentucky, while 47.5% were from Appalachia. Among all participants, the pandemic worsened anxiety and depression and delayed access to medical care. There were no associations between sociodemographics and practicing COVID-19 prevention behaviors. Appalachian region was associated with financial burden and delay in medical care (p = 0.03). Appalachian respondents had lower perceived benefit and attitude for COVID-19 prevention behaviors (p = 0.004 and <0.001, respectively). Among all respondents, the perceived risk of contracting COVID was high (54%), yet 33.2% indicated unlikeliness to receive the COVID-19 vaccine if offered. The COVID-19 pandemic had a differential impact on White rural and Black nonrural populations. Nurses and public health officials should assess knowledge and explore patient's attitudes regarding COVID-19 prevention behaviors, as well as advocate for public health resources to reduce the differential impact of COVID-19 on these at-risk populations.

In-hospital use of ACE inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers associates with COVID-19 outcomes in African American patients

BACKGROUNDThe angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) D allele is more prevalent among African Americans compared with other races and ethnicities and has previously been associated with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pathogenesis through excessive ACE1 activity. ACE inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers (ACE-I/ARB) may counteract this mechanism, but their association with COVID-19 outcomes has not been specifically tested in the African American population.METHODSWe identified 6218 patients who were admitted into Mount Sinai hospitals with COVID-19 between February 24 and May 31, 2020, in New York City. We evaluated whether the outpatient and in-hospital use of ACE-I/ARB is associated with COVID-19 in-hospital mortality in an African American compared with non-African American population.RESULTSOf the 6218 patients with COVID-19, 1138 (18.3%) were ACE-I/ARB users. In a multivariate logistic regression model, ACE-I/ARB use was independently associated with a reduced risk of in-hospital mortality in the entire population (OR, 0.655; 95% CI, 0.505-0.850; P = 0.001), African American population (OR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.249-0.779; P = 0.005), and non-African American population (OR, 0.748, 95% CI, 0.553-1.012, P = 0.06). In the African American population, in-hospital use of ACE-I/ARB was associated with improved mortality (OR, 0.378; 95% CI, 0.188-0.766; P = 0.006), whereas outpatient use was not (OR, 0.889; 95% CI, 0.375-2.158; P = 0.812). When analyzing each medication class separately, ARB in-hospital use was significantly associated with reduced in-hospital mortality in the African American population (OR, 0.196; 95% CI, 0.074-0.516; P = 0.001), whereas ACE-I use was not associated with impact on mortality in any population.CONCLUSIONIn-hospital use of ARB was associated with a significant reduction in in-hospital mortality among COVID-19-positive African American patients.FUNDINGNone.

Excess mortality from COVID and non-COVID causes in minority populations

The 2020 US mortality totaled 2.8 million after early March, which is 17.3% higher than age-population-weighted mortality over the same time interval in 2017 to 2019, for a total excess death count of 413,592. We use data on weekly death counts by cause, as well as life tables, to quantify excess mortality and life years lost from both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 causes by race/ethnicity, age, and gender/sex. Excess mortality from non-COVID-19 causes is substantial and much more heavily concentrated among males and minorities, especially Black, non-Hispanic males, than COVID-19 deaths. Thirty-four percent of the excess life years lost for males is from non-COVID-19 causes. While minorities represent 36% of COVID-19 deaths, they represent 70% of non-COVID-19 related excess deaths and 58% of non-COVID-19 excess life years lost. Black, non-Hispanic males represent only 6.9% of the population, but they are responsible for 8.9% of COVID-19 deaths and 28% of 2020 excess deaths from non-COVID-19 causes. For this group, nearly half of the excess life years lost in 2020 are due to non-COVID-19 causes.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Child and Adolescent Mental Health Policy and Practice Implementation

Background: The impact of the 2019 coronavirus pandemic on the mental health of millions worldwide has been well documented, but its impact on prevention and treatment of mental and behavioral health conditions is less clear. The COVID-19 pandemic also created numerous challenges and opportunities to implement health care policies and programs under conditions that are fundamentally different from what has been considered to be usual care. Methods: We conducted a qualitative study to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on implementation of evidence-based policy and practice by State Mental Health Authorities (SMHA) for prevention and treatment of mental health problems in children and adolescents. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 29 SMHA representatives of 21 randomly selected states stratified by coronavirus positivity rate and rate of unmet services need. Data analysis with SMHA stakeholders used procedures embedded in the Rapid Assessment Procedure—Informed Community Ethnography methodology. Results: The need for services increased during the pandemic due primarily to family stress and separation from peers. States reporting an increase in demand had high coronavirus positivity and high unmet services need. The greatest impacts were reduced out-of-home services and increased use of telehealth. Barriers to telehealth services included limited access to internet and technology, family preference for face-to-face services, lack of privacy, difficulty using with young children and youth in need of substance use treatment, finding a Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA)-compliant platform, training providers and clients, and reimbursement challenges. Policy changes to enable reimbursement, internet access, training, and provider licensing resulted in substantially fewer appointment cancellations or no-shows, greater family engagement, reduction in travel time, increased access for people living in remote locations, and increased provider communication and collaboration. States with high rates of coronavirus positivity and high rates of unmet need were most likely to continue use of telehealth post-pandemic. Despite these challenges, states reported successful implementation of policies designed to facilitate virtual services delivery with likely long-term changes in practice. Conclusions: Policy implementation during the pandemic provided important lessons for planning and preparedness for future public health emergencies. Successful policy implementation requires ongoing collaboration among policy makers and with providers.

Impact of COVID-19 on excess mortality, life expectancy, and years of life lost in the United States

This paper quantifies the net impact (direct and indirect effects) of the pandemic on the United States population in 2020 using three metrics: excess deaths, life expectancy, and total years of life lost. The findings indicate there were 375,235 excess deaths, with 83% attributable to direct, and 17% attributable to indirect effects of COVID-19. The decrease in life expectancy was 1.67 years, translating to a reversion of 14 years in historical life expectancy gains. Total years of life lost in 2020 was 7,362,555 across the USA (73% directly attributable, 27% indirectly attributable to COVID-19), with considerable heterogeneity at the individual state level.

Excess mortality among Latino people in California during the COVID-19 pandemic

Latino people in the US are experiencing higher excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic than any other racial/ethnic group, but it is unclear which sociodemographic subgroups within this diverse population are most affected. Such information is necessary to target policies that prevent further excess mortality and reduce inequities. Using death certificate data for January 1, 2016 through February 29, 2020 and time-series models, we estimated the expected weekly deaths among Latino people in California from March 1 through October 3, 2020. We quantified excess mortality as observed minus expected deaths and risk ratios (RR) as the ratio of observed to expected deaths. We considered subgroups categorized by age, sex, nativity, country of birth, educational attainment, occupation, and combinations of these factors. Our results indicate that during the first seven months of the pandemic, Latino deaths in California exceeded expected deaths by 10,316, a 31% increase. Excess death rates were greatest for individuals born in Mexico (RR 1.44; 95% PI, 1.41, 1.48) or a Central American country (RR 1.49; 95% PI, 1.37, 1.64), with less than a high school degree (RR 1.41; 95% PI, 1.35, 1.46), or in food-and-agriculture (RR 1.60; 95% PI, 1.48, 1.74) or manufacturing occupations (RR 1.59; 95% PI, 1.50, 1.69). Immigrant disadvantages in excess death were magnified among working-age Latinos in essential occupations. In sum, the COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately impacted mortality among Latino immigrants, especially those in unprotected essential jobs. Interventions to reduce these inequities should include targeted vaccination, workplace safety enforcement, and expanded access to medical care and economic support.

Evaluating the frequency of English language requirements in clinical trial eligibility criteria: A systematic analysis using ClinicalTrials.gov

BACKGROUND

A number of prior studies have demonstrated that research participants with limited English proficiency in the United States are routinely excluded from clinical trial participation. Systematic exclusion through study eligibility criteria that require trial participants to be able to speak, read, and/or understand English affects access to clinical trials and scientific generalizability. We sought to establish the frequency with which English language proficiency is required and, conversely, when non-English languages are affirmatively accommodated in US interventional clinical trials for adult populations.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used the advanced search function on ClinicalTrials.gov specifying interventional studies for adults with at least 1 site in the US. In addition, we used these search criteria to find studies with an available posted protocol. A computer program was written to search for evidence of English or Spanish language requirements, or the posted protocol, when available, was manually read for these language requirements. Of the 14,367 clinical trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov between 1 January 2019 and 1 December 2020 that met baseline search criteria, 18.98% (95% CI 18.34%-19.62%; n = 2,727) required the ability to read, speak, and/or understand English, and 2.71% (95% CI 2.45%-2.98%; n = 390) specifically mentioned accommodation of translation to another language. The remaining trials in this analysis and the following sub-analyses did not mention English language requirements or accommodation of languages other than English. Of 2,585 federally funded clinical trials, 28.86% (95% CI 27.11%-30.61%; n = 746) required English language proficiency and 4.68% (95% CI 3.87%-5.50%; n = 121) specified accommodation of other languages; of the 5,286 industry-funded trials, 5.30% (95% CI 4.69%-5.90%; n = 280) required English and 0.49% (95% CI 0.30%-0.69%; n = 26) accommodated other languages. Trials related to infectious disease were less likely to specify an English requirement than all registered trials (10.07% versus 18.98%; relative risk [RR] = 0.53; 95% CI 0.44-0.64; p < 0.001). Trials related to COVID-19 were also less likely to specify an English requirement than all registered trials (8.18% versus 18.98%; RR = 0.43; 95% CI 0.33-0.56; p < 0.001). Trials with a posted protocol (n = 366) were more likely than all registered clinical trials to specify an English requirement (36.89% versus 18.98%; RR = 1.94, 95% CI 1.69-2.23; p < 0.001). A separate analysis of studies with posted protocols in 4 therapeutic areas (depression, diabetes, breast cancer, and prostate cancer) demonstrated that clinical trials related to depression were the most likely to require English (52.24%; 95% CI 40.28%-64.20%). One limitation of this study is that the computer program only searched for the terms "English" and "Spanish" and may have missed evidence of other language accommodations. Another limitation is that we did not differentiate between requirements to read English, speak English, understand English, and be a native English speaker; we grouped these requirements together in the category of English language requirements.

CONCLUSIONS

A meaningful percentage of US interventional clinical trials for adults exclude individuals who cannot read, speak, and/or understand English, or are not native English speakers. To advance more inclusive and generalizable research, funders, sponsors, institutions, investigators, institutional review boards, and others should prioritize translating study materials and eliminate language requirements unless justified either scientifically or ethically.

Racial and ethnic differentials in COVID-19-related job exposures by occupational standing in the US

Researchers and journalists have argued that work-related factors may be partly responsible for disproportionate COVID-19 infection and death rates among vulnerable groups. We evaluate these issues by describing racial and ethnic differences in the likelihood of work-related exposure to COVID-19. We extend previous studies by considering 12 racial and ethnic groups and five types of potential occupational exposure to the virus: exposure to infection, physical proximity to others, face-to-face discussions, interactions with external customers and the public, and working indoors. Most importantly, we stratify our results by occupational standing, defined as the proportion of workers within each occupation with at least some college education. This measure serves as a proxy for whether workplaces and workers employ COVID-19-related risk reduction strategies. We use the 2018 American Community Survey to identify recent workers by occupation, and link 409 occupations to information on work context from the Occupational Information Network to identify potential COVID-related risk factors. We then examine the racial/ethnic distribution of all frontline workers and frontline workers at highest potential risk of COVID-19, by occupational standing and by sex. The results indicate that, contrary to expectation, White frontline workers are often overrepresented in high-risk jobs while Black and Latino frontline workers are generally underrepresented in these jobs. However, disaggregation of the results by occupational standing shows that, in contrast to Whites and several Asian groups, Latino and Black frontline workers are overrepresented in lower standing occupations overall and in lower standing occupations associated with high risk, and thus may be less likely to have adequate COVID-19 protections. Our findings suggest that greater work exposures likely contribute to a higher prevalence of COVID-19 among Latino and Black adults and underscore the need for measures to reduce potential exposure for workers in low standing occupations and for the development of programs outside the workplace.

Reduction in life expectancy in Brazil after COVID-19

Brazil has been heavily affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we used data on reported total deaths in 2020 and in January-April 2021 to measure and compare the death toll across states. We estimate a decline in 2020 life expectancy at birth (e0) of 1.3 years, a mortality level not seen since 2014. The reduction in life expectancy at age 65 (e65) in 2020 was 0.9 years, setting Brazil back to 2012 levels. The decline was larger for males, widening by 9.1% the female-male gap in e0. Among states, Amazonas lost 60.4% of the improvements in e0 since 2000. In the first 4 months of 2021, COVID-19 deaths represented 107% of the total 2020 figures. Assuming that death rates would have been equal to 2019 all-cause rates in the absence of COVID-19, COVID-19 deaths in 2021 have already reduced e0 in 2021 by 1.8 years, which is slightly larger than the reduction estimated for 2020 under similar assumptions.

An immunogenetic view of COVID-19

Meeting the challenges brought by the COVID-19 pandemic requires an interdisciplinary approach. In this context, integrating knowledge of immune function with an understanding of how genetic variation influences the nature of immunity is a key challenge. Immunogenetics can help explain the heterogeneity of susceptibility and protection to the viral infection and disease progression. Here, we review the knowledge developed so far, discussing fundamental genes for triggering the innate and adaptive immune responses associated with a viral infection, especially with the SARS-CoV-2 mechanisms. We emphasize the role of the HLA and KIR genes, discussing what has been uncovered about their role in COVID-19 and addressing methodological challenges of studying these genes. Finally, we comment on questions that arise when studying admixed populations, highlighting the case of Brazil. We argue that the interplay between immunology and an understanding of genetic associations can provide an important contribution to our knowledge of COVID-19.

US Health Care Spending by Race and Ethnicity, 2002-2016

Importance

Measuring health care spending by race and ethnicity is important for understanding patterns in utilization and treatment.

Objective

To estimate, identify, and account for differences in health care spending by race and ethnicity from 2002 through 2016 in the US.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This exploratory study included data from 7.3 million health system visits, admissions, or prescriptions captured in the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2002-2016) and the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (2002-2012), which were combined with the insured population and notified case estimates from the National Health Interview Survey (2002; 2016) and health care spending estimates from the Disease Expenditure project (1996-2016).

Exposure

Six mutually exclusive self-reported race and ethnicity groups.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Total and age-standardized health care spending per person by race and ethnicity for each year from 2002 through 2016 by type of care. Health care spending per notified case by race and ethnicity for key diseases in 2016. Differences in health care spending across race and ethnicity groups were decomposed into differences in utilization rate vs differences in price and intensity of care.

Results

In 2016, an estimated $2.4 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI], $2.4 trillion-$2.4 trillion) was spent on health care across the 6 types of care included in this study. The estimated age-standardized total health care spending per person in 2016 was $7649 (95% UI, $6129-$8814) for American Indian and Alaska Native (non-Hispanic) individuals; $4692 (95% UI, $4068-$5202) for Asian, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander (non-Hispanic) individuals; $7361 (95% UI, $6917-$7797) for Black (non-Hispanic) individuals; $6025 (95% UI, $5703-$6373) for Hispanic individuals; $9276 (95% UI, $8066-$10 601) for individuals categorized as multiple races (non-Hispanic); and $8141 (95% UI, $8038-$8258) for White (non-Hispanic) individuals, who accounted for an estimated 72% (95% UI, 71%-73%) of health care spending. After adjusting for population size and age, White individuals received an estimated 15% (95% UI, 13%-17%; P < .001) more spending on ambulatory care than the all-population mean. Black (non-Hispanic) individuals received an estimated 26% (95% UI, 19%-32%; P < .001) less spending than the all-population mean on ambulatory care but received 19% (95% UI, 3%-32%; P = .02) more on inpatient and 12% (95% UI, 4%-24%; P = .04) more on emergency department care. Hispanic individuals received an estimated 33% (95% UI, 26%-37%; P < .001) less spending per person on ambulatory care than the all-population mean. Asian, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander (non-Hispanic) individuals received less spending than the all-population mean on all types of care except dental (all P < .001), while American Indian and Alaska Native (non-Hispanic) individuals had more spending on emergency department care than the all-population mean (estimated 90% more; 95% UI, 11%-165%; P = .04), and multiple-race (non-Hispanic) individuals had more spending on emergency department care than the all-population mean (estimated 40% more; 95% UI, 19%-63%; P = .006). All 18 of the statistically significant race and ethnicity spending differences by type of care corresponded with differences in utilization. These differences persisted when controlling for underlying disease burden.

Conclusions and Relevance

In the US from 2002 through 2016, health care spending varied by race and ethnicity across different types of care even after adjusting for age and health conditions. Further research is needed to determine current health care spending by race and ethnicity, including spending related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Women and Early Career Archaeologists

The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching impacts in all segments of life worldwide. While a variety of surveys have assessed the impacts of the pandemic in other fields, few studies have focused on understanding the short- and long-term impacts of the pandemic for archaeology. To assess these trends, we asked survey respondents (n = 570) if they experienced job loss and to rate the percentage of change in their economic situation, workload, teaching or research activities, and personal responsibilities. Results show alarming trends, with nearly half of those who experienced job loss being under the age of 35 and women and early career archaeologists suffering major economic losses. Impacts to workload, teaching activities, and research activities were also felt across these groups. Substantial increases in personal responsibilities (childcare, eldercare, caring for sick family members) were also identified, especially for women with children under 18 years of age. While structural inequalities have already been identified across different sectors of archaeology, the results of this survey suggest the most vulnerable populations are those most heavily affected. We recommend a variety of strategies for employers, professional organizations, funding agencies, and publishers to consider in mitigating the consequences of COVID-19, especially for women and early career scholars.

Socioeconomic privilege and political ideology are associated with racial disparity in COVID-19 vaccination

Vaccine uptake is critical for mitigating the impact of COVID-19 in the United States, but structural inequities pose a serious threat to progress. Racial disparities in vaccination persist despite the increased availability of vaccines. We ask what factors are associated with such disparities. We combine data from state, federal, and other sources to estimate the relationship between social determinants of health and racial disparities in COVID-19 vaccinations at the county level. Analyzing vaccination data from 19 April 2021, when nearly half of the US adult population was at least partially vaccinated, we find associations between racial disparities in COVID-19 vaccination and median income (negative), disparity in high school education (positive), and vote share for the Republican party in the 2020 presidential election (negative), while vaccine hesitancy is not related to disparities. We examine differences in associations for COVID-19 vaccine uptake as compared with influenza vaccine. Key differences include an amplified role for socioeconomic privilege factors and political ideology, reflective of the unique societal context in which the pandemic has unfolded.

A First Look: Disparities in COVID-19 Mortality Among US-Born and Foreign-Born Minnesota Residents

This research brief provides one of the first examinations of the impact of COVID-19 mortality on immigrant communities in the United States. In the absence of national data, we examine COVID-19 deaths in Minnesota, historically one of the major U.S. refugee destinations, using individual-level death certificates obtained from the Minnesota Department of Health Office of Vital Records. Minnesota’s foreign-born crude COVID-19 death rates were similar to rates for the US-born, but COVID-19 death rates adjusted for age and gender were twice as high among the foreign-born. Among foreign-born Latinos, in particular, COVID-19 mortality was concentrated in relatively younger, prime working age men. Moreover, the place-based and temporal patterns of COVID-19 mortality were quite distinct, with the majority of US-born mortality concentrated in long-term care facilities and late in 2020, and foreign-born mortality occurring outside of residential institutions and earlier in the pandemic. The disparate impacts of COVID-19 for foreign-born Minnesotans demonstrate the need for targeted public health planning and intervention in immigrant communities.

Financial Stress Among Latino Adults in California During COVID-19

We study the impact of COVID-19 on stress, and especially on financial stress, among Latino adults in California. We take a mixed methods approach and rely on quantitative and qualitative data for our analysis. We recruited 84 low- and moderate-income (LMI) Latino adults in California through the Understanding America Study (UAS) Internet Panel who also participated in the Mobile Financial Diary (MFD) project, which took place during 2018 - 2019. We analyze data about personal experiences during COVID-19 in October 2020 and compare this to data collected during the period from August to October 2018. Our study portrays the experiences of California Latino adults who were predominantly born in the USA and are likely to be working and speak English. We also observe that a large percentage of our participants had health insurance and relatively high levels of educational attainment. We find contradictory results from our quantitative measures, where one of our indicators of financial behavior and well-being showed a significant increase (Financial Health Score), and the other (Financial Well-Being Scale) showed a significant decrease during COVID-19. Anxiety (GAD-7) and depression (PHQ) measures show no significant changes during COVID-19 in comparison to 2018. Nonetheless, our qualitative data analysis shows that many of our participants were experiencing major stressors during the pandemic associated with labor market experiences and family circumstances. In our qualitative data analysis, we also observe that women seemed to have been affected the most by the pandemic.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41996-021-00087-0.

Black and Latinx Community Perspectives on COVID-19 Mitigation Behaviors, Testing, and Vaccines

IMPORTANCE

Black and Latinx communities have been disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, yet little work has sought to understand their perspectives.

OBJECTIVE

To explore the experiences of Black and Latinx communities during the pandemic to better understand their perspectives on COVID-19 mitigation behaviors (eg, mask wearing), testing, and vaccines.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this community-engaged qualitative study conducted with 18 community-based organizations and 4 health care organizations between November 19, 2020, and February 5, 2021, in New Jersey counties severely affected by the pandemic, group and individual interviews were used to purposively sample 111 Black and Latinx individuals. A total of 13 group interviews were organized by race/ethnicity and language: 4 English-speaking groups with Black participants (n = 34), 3 Spanish-speaking groups with Latinx participants (n = 24), and 4 English-speaking groups with Black and Latinx participants (n = 36). To understand the views of health care workers from these communities, 2 additional groups (n = 9) were convened and supplemented with individual interviews.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Description of Black and Latinx participants' experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic and their perspectives on mitigation behaviors, testing, and vaccines.

RESULTS

The study included 111 participants (87 women [78.4%]; median age, 43 years [range, 18-93 years]). Participants described the devastating effects of the pandemic on themselves, loved ones, and their community. Their experiences were marked by fear, illness, loss, and separation. These experiences motivated intense information seeking, mitigation behaviors, and testing. Nevertheless, vaccine skepticism was high across all groups. Participants did not trust the vaccine development process and wanted clearer information. Black participants expressed that they did not want to be subjects of experiments.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The remaining unknowns about new vaccines need to be acknowledged and described for Black and Latinx communities to make informed decisions. Ultimately, scientists and public officials need to work transparently to address unanswered questions and work collaboratively with trusted community leaders and health professionals to foster partnered approaches, rather than focusing on marketing campaigns, to eliminate vaccine skepticism.

Social Inequality and the Future of U.S. Life Expectancy

Despite decades of progress, the future of life expectancy in the United States is uncertain due to widening socioeconomic disparities in mortality, continued disparities in mortality across racial/ethnic groups, and an increase in extrinsic causes of death. These trends prompt us to scrutinize life expectancy in a high-income but enormously unequal society like the United States, where social factors determine who is most able to maximize their biological lifespan. After reviewing evidence for biodemographic perspectives on life expectancy, the uneven diffusion of health-enhancing innovations throughout the population, and the changing nature of threats to population health, we argue that sociology is optimally positioned to lead discourse on the future of life expectancy. Given recent trends, sociologists should emphasize the importance of the social determinants of life expectancy, redirecting research focus away from extending extreme longevity and towards research on social inequality with the goal of improving population health for all.

A longitudinal study of convergence between Black and White COVID-19 mortality: A county fixed effects approach

BACKGROUND

Non-Hispanic Black populations have suffered much greater per capita COVID-19 mortality than White populations. Previous work has shown that rates of Black and White mortality have converged over time. Understanding of COVID-19 disparities over time is complicated by geographic changes in prevalence, and some prior research has claimed that regional shifts in COVID-19 prevalence may explain the convergence.

METHODS

Using county-level COVID-19 mortality data stratified by race, we investigate the trajectory of Black and White per capita mortality from June 2020-January 2021. We use a county fixed-effects model to estimate changes within counties, then extend our models to leverage county-level variation in prevalence to study the effects of prevalence versus time trajectories in mortality disparities.

FINDINGS

Over this period, cumulative mortality rose by 61% and 90% for Black and White populations respectively, decreasing the mortality ratio by 0.4 (25.8%). These trends persisted when a county-level fixed-effects model was applied. Results revealed that county-level changes in prevalence nearly fully explain changes in mortality disparities over time.

INTERPRETATION

Results suggest mechanisms underpinning convergence in Black/White mortality are not driven by fixed county-level characteristics or changes in the regional dispersion of COVID-19, but instead by changes within counties. Further, declines in the Black/White mortality ratio over time appear primarily linked to county-level changes in COVID-19 prevalence rather than other county-level factors that may vary with time. Research into COVID-19 disparities should focus on mechanisms that operate within-counties and are consistent with a prevalence-disparity relationship.

FUNDING

This work was supported by the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences [E.H.: UL1TR002553].

Effect of the covid-19 pandemic in 2020 on life expectancy across populations in the USA and other high income countries: simulations of provisional mortality data

OBJECTIVE

To estimate changes in life expectancy in 2010-18 and during the covid-19 pandemic in 2020 across population groups in the United States and to compare outcomes with peer nations.

DESIGN

Simulations of provisional mortality data.

SETTING

US and 16 other high income countries in 2010-18 and 2020, by sex, including an analysis of US outcomes by race and ethnicity.

POPULATION

Data for the US and for 16 other high income countries from the National Center for Health Statistics and the Human Mortality Database, respectively.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Life expectancy at birth, and at ages 25 and 65, by sex, and, in the US only, by race and ethnicity. Analysis excluded 2019 because life table data were not available for many peer countries. Life expectancy in 2020 was estimated by simulating life tables from estimated age specific mortality rates in 2020 and allowing for 10% random error. Estimates for 2020 are reported as medians with fifth and 95th centiles.

RESULTS

Between 2010 and 2018, the gap in life expectancy between the US and the peer country average increased from 1.88 years (78.66 v 80.54 years, respectively) to 3.05 years (78.74 v 81.78 years). Between 2018 and 2020, life expectancy in the US decreased by 1.87 years (to 76.87 years), 8.5 times the average decrease in peer countries (0.22 years), widening the gap to 4.69 years. Life expectancy in the US decreased disproportionately among racial and ethnic minority groups between 2018 and 2020, declining by 3.88, 3.25, and 1.36 years in Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic White populations, respectively. In Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black populations, reductions in life expectancy were 18 and 15 times the average in peer countries, respectively. Progress since 2010 in reducing the gap in life expectancy in the US between Black and White people was erased in 2018-20; life expectancy in Black men reached its lowest level since 1998 (67.73 years), and the longstanding Hispanic life expectancy advantage almost disappeared.

CONCLUSIONS

The US had a much larger decrease in life expectancy between 2018 and 2020 than other high income nations, with pronounced losses among the Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black populations. A longstanding and widening US health disadvantage, high death rates in 2020, and continued inequitable effects on racial and ethnic minority groups are likely the products of longstanding policy choices and systemic racism.

A first analysis of excess mortality in Switzerland in 2020

OBJECTIVE

To quantify excess all-cause mortality in Switzerland in 2020, a key indicator for assessing direct and indirect consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Using official data on deaths in Switzerland, all-cause mortality in 2020 was compared with that of previous years using directly standardized mortality rates, age- and sex-specific mortality rates, and life expectancy.

RESULTS

The standardized mortality rate was 8.8% higher in 2020 than in 2019, returning to the level observed 5-6 years before, around the year 2015. This increase was greater for men (10.6%) than for women (7.2%) and was statistically significant only for men over 70 years of age, and for women over 75 years of age. The decrease in life expectancy in 2020 compared to 2019 was 0.7%, with a loss of 9.7 months for men and 5.3 months for women.

CONCLUSIONS

There was an excess mortality in Switzerland in 2020, linked to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as this excess only concerned the elderly, the resulting loss of life expectancy was restricted to a few months, bringing the mortality level back to 2015.

Responsible biology, aging populations and the 50th anniversary of the "War on Cancer"

The 50th Anniversary of the National Cancer Act of 1971 is the opportune time to critically reflect on the determinates of what the philosopher of science Philip Kitcher calls “responsible biology”. Responsible biology entails that scientists have an obligation to reflect on the ends, and not just the means, of scientific research and to conceive of themselves as artisans working for the public good. Taking stock of the successes and limits of the half a century “war on cancer” reveals the importance of attending to the most significant risk factor for cancer and other chronic diseases- aging itself. The case is made for considering the biology of aging, and the aspiration to slow the rate of biological aging, as critical components of responsible biology in an aging world. As growing numbers of humans survive into late life, the primacy the goal of disease elimination occupies within biomedical research must be revised, and greater effort should be directed towards the goal of increasing the human healthspan and delaying and compressing disease, frailty and disability in late life.

A Web-Based Digital Contact Tracing Strategy Addresses Stigma Concerns Among Individuals Evaluated for COVID-19

Background: Conventional contact tracing approaches have not kept pace with the scale of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the highly anticipated smartphone applications for digital contact tracing efforts are plagued by low adoption rates attributed to privacy concerns; therefore, innovation is needed in this public health capability. Methods: This study involved a cross-sectional, nonrepresentative, online survey in the United States of individuals tested for COVID-19. Testing survey items measured the performance of conventional contact tracing programs, quantified the stigma related to the notification of COVID-19 close contacts, and assessed the acceptability of a website service for digital contact tracing. Results: A sample of 668 (19.9%) individuals met the inclusion criteria and consented to participation. Among the 95 participants with COVID-19, results were received after a median of 2 days, 63.2% interacted with a contact tracing program a median of 2 days after receiving test results, 62.1% had close contacts, and 37.1% of participants with COVID-19 and close contacts did not disclose their results to all close contacts. Among all participants, 17% had downloaded a mobile application and 40.3% reported interest in a website service. One hundred and nine participants perceived stigma with the disclosure of COVID-19 test results; of these, 58.7% reported that a website service for close contact notification would decrease this stigma. Discussion: Conventional contact tracing programs did not comprehensively contact individuals who tested positive for COVID-19 nor did so within a meaningful time frame. Digital contact tracing innovations may address these shortcomings; however, the low penetration of mobile application services in the United States indicates that a suite of digital contact tracing tools, including website services, are warranted for a more exhaustive coverage of the population. Conclusions: Public health officials should develop a complementary toolkit of digital contact tracing strategies to enable effective pandemic containment strategies.

Pan[dem]ic! Rational Risk Avoidance During a Health Pandemic

During a health pandemic health workers have to balance two competing objectives: their own welfare vs. that of their patients. Intuitively, attending to sick patients during a pandemic poses risks to health workers because some of these patients could be infected. One way to reduce risk is by reducing contact with patients. These changes could be on the extensive margin, e.g., seeing fewer patients; or, more insidiously, on the intensive margin, by reducing the duration/intensity of contact. This paper studies risk avoidance behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic and examines implications for patient welfare. Using primary data on thousands of patient-provider interactions between January 2019 and October 2020 in Nigeria, I present evidence of risk compensation by health workers along the intensive margin. For example, the probability that a patient receives a physical examination has dropped by about a third. I find suggestive evidence of negative effects on health outcomes.

Nuestra Ciencia: Transforming microbiology for Spanish-speaking elementary and college students

This forward-looking perspective describes the university-elementary bilingual partnership program Nuestra Ciencia. This program aims to simultaneously tackle two parallel sets of challenges, the first related to recruitment and retention of Latinx into STEM fields, and the second related to generalized microbiology misconceptions. Latinxs are severely underrepresented in STEM fields, in part because they face systemic barriers and typically arrive at college with a weaker science foundation from their K-12 education and thus are less likely to be drawn to STEM majors. Beyond grappling with the science content, Latinx students reach college with assumptions about who belongs in science practices and professions, which in turn negatively affect their representation in STEM careers. Misconceptions also plague microbiology education, and most students reach college with deep-seated yet inaccurate ideas about the microbial world, such as the ways in which vaccines and antibiotics work. Unfortunately, lack of microbiology literacy has a direct impact on personal choices that can affect individuals but also the success of public health and environmental policies. Nuestra Ciencia addresses both sets of problems, as we work with interdisciplinary groups of undergraduates to develop engaging experiments for elementary classrooms that illustrate microbiology concepts, and then visit bilingual classrooms to lead the experiments in Spanish. Lessons have accompanying resources in Spanish and English for teachers and students, including background information, handouts, and assessment tools. In this manuscript, we outline the background, goals and components of the program, review activities developed for elementary students, and share potential impact and lessons learned. Additionally, we explore future directions and outreach activities, especially in relation to online learning.

Carceral-community epidemiology, structural racism, and COVID-19 disparities

Black and Hispanic communities are disproportionately affected by both incarceration and COVID-19. The epidemiological relationship between carceral facilities and community health during the COVID-19 pandemic, however, remains largely unexamined. Using data from Cook County Jail, we examine temporal patterns in the relationship between jail cycling (i.e., arrest and processing of individuals through jails before release) and community cases of COVID-19 in Chicago ZIP codes. We use multivariate regression analyses and a machine-learning tool, elastic regression, with 1,706 demographic control variables. We find that for each arrested individual cycled through Cook County Jail in March 2020, five additional cases of COVID-19 in their ZIP code of residence are independently attributable to the jail as of August. A total 86% of this additional disease burden is borne by majority-Black and/or -Hispanic ZIPs, accounting for 17% of cumulative COVID-19 cases in these ZIPs, 6% in majority-White ZIPs, and 13% across all ZIPs. Jail cycling in March alone can independently account for 21% of racial COVID-19 disparities in Chicago as of August 2020. Relative to all demographic variables in our analysis, jail cycling is the strongest predictor of COVID-19 rates, considerably exceeding poverty, race, and population density, for example. Arrest and incarceration policies appear to be increasing COVID-19 incidence in communities. Our data suggest that jails function as infectious disease multipliers and epidemiological pumps that are especially affecting marginalized communities. Given disproportionate policing and incarceration of racialized residents nationally, the criminal punishment system may explain a large proportion of racial COVID-19 disparities noted across the United States.

Carceral-community epidemiology, structural racism, and COVID-19 disparities

Black and Hispanic communities are disproportionately affected by both incarceration and COVID-19. The epidemiological relationship between carceral facilities and community health during the COVID-19 pandemic, however, remains largely unexamined. Using data from Cook County Jail, we examine temporal patterns in the relationship between jail cycling (i.e., arrest and processing of individuals through jails before release) and community cases of COVID-19 in Chicago ZIP codes. We use multivariate regression analyses and a machine-learning tool, elastic regression, with 1,706 demographic control variables. We find that for each arrested individual cycled through Cook County Jail in March 2020, five additional cases of COVID-19 in their ZIP code of residence are independently attributable to the jail as of August. A total 86% of this additional disease burden is borne by majority-Black and/or -Hispanic ZIPs, accounting for 17% of cumulative COVID-19 cases in these ZIPs, 6% in majority-White ZIPs, and 13% across all ZIPs. Jail cycling in March alone can independently account for 21% of racial COVID-19 disparities in Chicago as of August 2020. Relative to all demographic variables in our analysis, jail cycling is the strongest predictor of COVID-19 rates, considerably exceeding poverty, race, and population density, for example. Arrest and incarceration policies appear to be increasing COVID-19 incidence in communities. Our data suggest that jails function as infectious disease multipliers and epidemiological pumps that are especially affecting marginalized communities. Given disproportionate policing and incarceration of racialized residents nationally, the criminal punishment system may explain a large proportion of racial COVID-19 disparities noted across the United States.

Carceral-community epidemiology, structural racism, and COVID-19 disparities

Black and Hispanic communities are disproportionately affected by both incarceration and COVID-19. The epidemiological relationship between carceral facilities and community health during the COVID-19 pandemic, however, remains largely unexamined. Using data from Cook County Jail, we examine temporal patterns in the relationship between jail cycling (i.e., arrest and processing of individuals through jails before release) and community cases of COVID-19 in Chicago ZIP codes. We use multivariate regression analyses and a machine-learning tool, elastic regression, with 1,706 demographic control variables. We find that for each arrested individual cycled through Cook County Jail in March 2020, five additional cases of COVID-19 in their ZIP code of residence are independently attributable to the jail as of August. A total 86% of this additional disease burden is borne by majority-Black and/or -Hispanic ZIPs, accounting for 17% of cumulative COVID-19 cases in these ZIPs, 6% in majority-White ZIPs, and 13% across all ZIPs. Jail cycling in March alone can independently account for 21% of racial COVID-19 disparities in Chicago as of August 2020. Relative to all demographic variables in our analysis, jail cycling is the strongest predictor of COVID-19 rates, considerably exceeding poverty, race, and population density, for example. Arrest and incarceration policies appear to be increasing COVID-19 incidence in communities. Our data suggest that jails function as infectious disease multipliers and epidemiological pumps that are especially affecting marginalized communities. Given disproportionate policing and incarceration of racialized residents nationally, the criminal punishment system may explain a large proportion of racial COVID-19 disparities noted across the United States.

Evolution of Disparities in Prostate Cancer Treatment: Is This a New Normal?

Despite notable screening, diagnostic, and therapeutic advances, disparities in prostate cancer incidence and outcomes remain prevalent. Although commonly discussed in the context of men of African descent, disparities also exist based on socioeconomic level, education level, and geographic location. The factors in these disparities span systemic access issues affecting availability of care, provider awareness, and personal patient views and mistrust. In this review, we will discuss common themes that patients have noted as impediments to care. We will review how equitable access to care has helped improve outcomes among many different groups of patients, including those with local disease and those with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. Even with more advanced presentation, challenges with recommended screening, and lower rates of genomic testing and trial inclusion, Black populations have benefited greatly from various modalities of therapy, achieving comparable and at times superior outcomes with certain types of immunotherapy, chemotherapy, androgen receptor-based inhibitors, and radiopharmaceuticals in advanced disease. We will also briefly discuss access to genomic testing and differences in patterns of gene expression among Black patients and other groups that are traditionally underrepresented in trials and genomic cohort studies. We propose several strategies on behalf of providers and institutions to help promote more equitable care access environments and continued decreases in prostate cancer disparities across many subgroups.

Returning to a Normal Life via COVID-19 Vaccines in the United States: A Large-scale Agent-Based Simulation Study

BACKGROUND

In 2020, COVID-19 has claimed more than 300,000 deaths in the United States alone. Although nonpharmaceutical interventions were implemented by federal and state governments in the United States, these efforts have failed to contain the virus. Following the Food and Drug Administration's approval of two COVID-19 vaccines, however, the hope for the return to normalcy has been renewed. This hope rests on an unprecedented nationwide vaccine campaign, which faces many logistical challenges and is also contingent on several factors whose values are currently unknown.

OBJECTIVE

We study the effectiveness of a nationwide vaccine campaign in response to different vaccine efficacies, the willingness of the population to be vaccinated, and the daily vaccine capacity under two different federal plans. To characterize the possible outcomes most accurately, we also account for the interactions between nonpharmaceutical interventions and vaccines through 6 scenarios that capture a range of possible impacts from nonpharmaceutical interventions.

METHODS

We used large-scale, cloud-based, agent-based simulations by implementing the vaccination campaign using COVASIM, an open-source agent-based model for COVID-19 that has been used in several peer-reviewed studies and accounts for individual heterogeneity and a multiplicity of contact networks. Several modifications to the parameters and simulation logic were made to better align the model with current evidence. We chose 6 nonpharmaceutical intervention scenarios and applied the vaccination intervention following both the plan proposed by Operation Warp Speed (former Trump administration) and the plan of one million vaccines per day, proposed by the Biden administration. We accounted for unknowns in vaccine efficacies and levels of population compliance by varying both parameters. For each experiment, the cumulative infection growth was fitted to a logistic growth model, and the carrying capacities and the growth rates were recorded.

RESULTS

For both vaccination plans and all nonpharmaceutical intervention scenarios, the presence of the vaccine intervention considerably lowers the total number of infections when life returns to normal, even when the population compliance to vaccines is as low as 20%. We noted an unintended consequence; given the vaccine availability estimates under both federal plans and the focus on vaccinating individuals by age categories, a significant reduction in nonpharmaceutical interventions results in a counterintuitive situation in which higher vaccine compliance then leads to more total infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Although potent, vaccines alone cannot effectively end the pandemic given the current availability estimates and the adopted vaccination strategy. Nonpharmaceutical interventions need to continue and be enforced to ensure high compliance so that the rate of immunity established by vaccination outpaces that induced by infections.

Factors Associated with Willingness to be Vaccinated Against COVID-19 in a Large Convenience Sample

Willingness and reasons to be vaccinated against COVID-19 were examined among 26,324 respondents who completed a survey on willingness and questions related to Confidence in vaccine safety, Complacency about the disease, Convenience of vaccination, tendency to Calculate risks versus benefits, and Concern for protecting others. Willingness to be vaccinated differed by age (p < 0.001), by race and ethnicity (p < 0.001) and by level of education (p < 0.001). Willingness generally increased with age and education. Asians were most willing to be vaccinated, followed by non-Hispanic Whites, Hispanics, and non-Hispanic Blacks (p < 0.001). Occupational groups differed in willingness (p < 0.001). Retired and students were more willing than all others (p < 0.001) followed by disabled or unemployed, healthcare workers, and educators. First Responders were least willing to be vaccinated (p < 0.001) followed by construction, maintenance and landscaping, homemakers, housekeeping, cleaning and janitorial workers, and retail and food service. The strongest predictor of willingness was confidence with the safety of the vaccine (r = 0.723, p < 0.001), followed by concern with protecting others by being vaccinated (r = 0.574, p < 0.001), and believing COVID-19 was serious enough to merit vaccination (r = 0.478, p < 0.00). Using multiple regression, confidence in safety was the strongest predictor for all groups. Protecting others was strongest for 13 of 15 demographic groups and 8 of 11 occupational groups. College educated, non-Hispanic Whites, first responders, construction, maintenance and landscape workers, housekeeping, cleaning and janitorial workers all gave greater weight to complacency about the disease. These results can help in designing programs to combat vaccine hesitancy.