Ten simple rules for conducting umbrella reviews

Key facets to build up eHealth and mHealth interventions to enhance physical activity, sedentary behavior and nutrition in healthy subjects - an umbrella review

BACKGROUND

Electronic (eHealth) and mobile (mHealth) health interventions can provide a large coverage, and are promising tools to change health behavior (i.e. physical activity, sedentary behavior and healthy eating). However, the determinants of intervention effectiveness in primary prevention has not been explored yet. Therefore, the objectives of this umbrella review were to evaluate intervention effectiveness, to explore the impact of pre-defined determinants of effectiveness (i.e. theoretical foundations, behavior change techniques, social contexts or just-in-time adaptive interventions), and to provide recommendations for future research and practice in the field of primary prevention delivered via e/mHealth technology.

METHODS

PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library were searched for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (reviews) published between January 1990 and May 2020. Reviews reporting on e/mHealth behavior change interventions in physical activity, sedentary behavior and/or healthy eating for healthy subjects (i.e. subjects without physical or physiological morbidities which would influence the realization of behaviors targeted by the respective interventions) were included if they also investigated respective theoretical foundations, behavior change techniques, social contexts or just-in-time adaptive interventions. Included studies were ranked concerning their methodological quality and qualitatively synthesized.

RESULTS

The systematic search revealed 11 systematic reviews and meta-analyses of moderate quality. The majority of original research studies within the reviews found e/mHealth interventions to be effective, but the results showed a high heterogeneity concerning assessment methods and outcomes, making them difficult to compare. Whereas theoretical foundation and behavior change techniques were suggested to be potential positive determinants of effective interventions, the impact of social context remains unclear. None of the reviews included just-in-time adaptive interventions.

CONCLUSION

Findings of this umbrella review support the use of e/mHealth to enhance physical activity and healthy eating and reduce sedentary behavior. The general lack of precise reporting and comparison of confounding variables in reviews and original research studies as well as the limited number of reviews for each health behavior constrains the generalization and interpretation of results. Further research is needed on study-level to investigate effects of versatile determinants of e/mHealth efficiency, using a theoretical foundation and additionally explore the impact of social contexts and more sophisticated approaches like just-in-time adaptive interventions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The protocol for this umbrella review was a priori registered with PROSPERO: CRD42020147902 .

The use of masks to protect against respiratory infections: an umbrella review

INTRODUCTION

The global health emergency caused by the current COVID-19 pandemic is resulting in a huge challenge at all levels. The use of masks may reduce the spread of the infection by minimising the excretion of Flügge droplets. The objective of this study was to compile the evidence available on the use of masks in relation to respiratory infections.

METHODOLOGY

An umbrella review (review of systematic reviews) was conducted. Two reviewers independently carried out the screening process, data extraction and data analysis. Discrepancies were resolved with a third reviewer, and the assessment of the risk of bias of the studies was carried out using the AMSTAR 2 tool. The Rayyan QCRI program was used for the screening process.

RESULTS

A total of eight systematic reviews were included. The studies analysed the use of masks in the general population, in long-term care facilities, in hospitals and at mass gatherings, and compared the effectiveness thereof in preventing infection. The results of this review revealed that the use of masks is associated with a protective effect against respiratory infections in healthcare facilities, in long-term care facilities and at mass gatherings.

CONCLUSIONS

In light of the results, it seems reasonable to recommend the use of masks to the general population, but this use should be accompanied by a training programme to improve compliance, as not using them properly may increase the risk of infection.

The psychology of obesity: An umbrella review and evidence-based map of the psychological correlates of heavier body weight

Psychological factors may explain why some people develop obesity and others remain a normal weight during their life course. We use an umbrella review approach to build an evidence-based map of the psychological correlates of heavier body weight. Synthesising findings from 42 meta-analyses that have examined associations between psychological factors and heavier body weight, we assessed level of evidence for a range of cognitive, psychosocial and mental health individual difference factors. There is convincing evidence that impaired mental health is associated with heavier body weight and highly suggestive evidence that numerous cognitive factors are associated with heavier body weight. However, the relatively low methodological quality of meta-analyses resulted in lower evidential certainty for most psychosocial factors. Psychological correlates of heavier body weight tended to be small in statistical size and on average, people with obesity were likely to be more psychologically similar than different to people with normal weight. We consider implications for understanding the development of heavier body weight and identifying effective public health interventions to reduce obesity.

Tomato and lycopene and multiple health outcomes: Umbrella review

Lycopene is a potent lipophilic antioxidant in tomato. We aim to clarify the evidence for associations between tomato and lycopene and multiple health outcomes. Umbrella review of meta-analyses and systematic reviews was performed in humans. A total of 174 articles were searched, 17 articles with 20 health outcomes were identified by eligibility criteria. Tomato intake was inversely associated with all-cause mortality, coronary heart disease mortality, cerebrovascular disease mortality, prostate cancer, and gastric cancer. Dietary lycopene intake or serum lycopene was inversely associated with all-cause mortality, prostate cancer, stroke, cardiovascular disease, metabolic syndrome, and male infertility. Caution was warranted for potential allergy and pollution. The quality of the vast majority of evidence by GRADE was low or very low with the remaining six as moderate. The intake of tomato or lycopene was generally safe and beneficial for multiple health outcomes in humans. But the quality of the evidence was not high.

Low-Value Clinical Practices in Adult Traumatic Brain Injury: An Umbrella Review

Despite numerous interventions and treatment options, the outcomes of traumatic brain injury (TBI) have improved little over the last 3 decades, which raises concern about the value of care in this patient population. We aimed to synthesize the evidence on 14 potentially low-value clinical practices in TBI care. Using umbrella review methodology, we identified systematic reviews evaluating the effectiveness of 14 potentially low-value practices in adults with acute TBI. We present data on methodological quality (Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews), reported effect sizes, and credibility of evidence (I to IV). The only clinical practice with evidence of benefit was therapeutic hypothermia (credibility of evidence II to IV). However, the most recent meta-analysis on hypothermia based on high-quality trials suggested harm (credibility of evidence IV). Meta-analyses on platelet transfusion for patients on antiplatelet therapy were all consistent with harm but were statistically non-significant. For the following practices, effect estimates were consistently close to the null: computed tomography (CT) in adults with mild TBI who are low-risk on a validated clinical decision rule; repeat CT in adults with mild TBI on anticoagulant therapy with no clinical deterioration; antibiotic prophylaxis for external ventricular drain placement; and decompressive craniectomy for refractory intracranial hypertension. We identified five clinical practices with evidence of lack of benefit or harm. However, evidence could not be considered to be strong for any clinical practice as effect measures were imprecise and heterogeneous, systematic reviews were often of low quality, and most included studies had a high risk of bias.

In-hospital interventions for reducing readmissions to acute care for adults aged 65 and over: An umbrella review

PURPOSE

The aim of this umbrella review was to synthesize existing systematic review evidence on the effectiveness of in-hospital interventions to prevent or reduce avoidable hospital readmissions in older people (≥65 years old).

DATA SOURCES

A comprehensive database search was conducted in May 2019 through MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, the JBI Database of Systematic Reviews, DARE and Epistemonikos.

STUDY SELECTION

Systematic reviews and other research syntheses, including meta-analyses, exploring the effectiveness of hospital-based interventions to reduce readmissions for people aged 65 and older, irrespective of gender or clinical condition, were included for review. If a review did not exclusively focus on this age group, but data for this group could be extracted, then it was considered for inclusion. Only reviews in English were included.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data extracted for each review included the review objective, participant details, setting and context, type of studies, intervention type, comparator and findings.

RESULTS OF DATA SYNTHESIS

Twenty-nine reviews were included for analysis. Within these reviews, 11 intervention types were examined: in-hospital medication review, discharge planning, comprehensive geriatric assessment, early recovery after surgery, transitional care, interdisciplinary team care, in-hospital nutrition therapy, acute care geriatric units, in-hospital exercise, postfall interventions for people with dementia and emergency department-based palliative care. Except for discharge planning and transitional care, none of the interventions significantly reduced readmissions among older adults.

CONCLUSION

There is limited evidence to support the effectiveness of existing hospital-based interventions to reduce readmissions for people aged 65 and older.

Short versus standard implants associated with sinus floor elevation: An umbrella review of meta-analyses of multiple outcomes

STATEMENT OF PROBLEM

Bone loss in the edentulous posterior maxilla complicates dental implant placement. In spite of the evidence available, there is continued uncertainty about the benefit of short implants for different outcomes.

PURPOSE

The purpose of this review was to evaluate the existing evidence for short and standard implants in association with sinus floor elevation regarding implant survival, marginal bone loss, and complications by using an umbrella review of the evidence across meta-analysis of interventional studies.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Medline, Scopus, and Cochrane Library were searched to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses comparing short implants and standard implants associated with sinus floor elevation. Data extraction and methodological quality (AMSTAR-2) was assessed by 2 authors independently. Outcomes were categorized and tabulated to assess effectiveness. Qualitative data were analyzed using thematic synthesis. The certainty of the evidence was evaluated with the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach.

RESULTS

From 2011 studies, 7 systematic reviews (66 studies) were included as per the eligibility criteria. There was no statistically significant difference between groups for implant survival (risk ratio=1.08; P=.79), and the qualitative analysis did not show differences for prosthetic outcomes. Standard implants were associated with fewer prosthetic complications in the quantitative analysis (risk ratio=3.27; P<.01), but no difference was found between the treatments in the qualitative analysis. Short implants showed reduced marginal bone loss (0.98 ±0.12 mm; mean difference=-0.22; P<.01) and better biologic outcomes (risk ratio=0.16; P<.01). Patient satisfaction was similar for both groups, whereas costs and time for the procedure favored short implants. The quality of the evidence was graded as "critically low" (57.1% of the reviews) and "low." There was a high certainty of evidence for implant survival, whereas marginal bone loss and complications had moderate certainty.

CONCLUSIONS

Short implants had a better or equal performance compared with standard implants for all outcomes assessed. However, assumptions were based on reviews with low or critically low quality of the evidence, suggesting the development of high-quality systematic reviews in this field.

Aloe vera and health outcomes: An umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses

This umbrella review aims to summarize the effects of Aloe vera on health outcomes and assess the strength of evidence. PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Cochrane database of systematic reviews, CINAHL, and AMED were searched from inception to October, 2019 for systematic reviews and meta-analyses of clinical trials that investigated the effects of Aloe vera on health outcomes. Two independent reviewers extracted data, assessed the methodological quality, and rated the credibility of evidence according to established criteria. Ten articles reporting 71 unique outcomes of Aloe vera were included. Of these, 47 (67%) were nominally statistically significant based on random-effects model (p ≤ .05). Only 3 outcomes were supported by highly suggestive evidence, whereas 42 outcomes were supported by weak evidence. The highly suggestive evidence supported benefits of Aloe vera in the prevention of second-degree infusion phlebitis (RR: 0.18, 95% CI: 0.10-0.32, p-value: 1.75 × 10^-9 ) and chemotherapy-induced phlebitis based on overall incidence (OR: 0.13, 95% CI: 0.08-0.20, p-value: 9.68 × 10^-20 ) and incidence of the second degree of severity (OR: 0.10, 95% CI: 0.07-0.14, p-value: 3.41 × 10^-35 ). However, the majority of the evidence were limited by small sample size and poor methodological quality. Therefore, despite the overall favorable effect of Aloe vera, more robust studies are needed.

The association between analgesic drug use in pregnancy and neurodevelopmental disorders: protocol for an umbrella review

BACKGROUND

Maternal prenatal health has been shown to be an important influence on children's developmental outcomes, which has led to an increased emphasis on providing more information to support clinical decisions in pregnancy. Several systematic reviews suggest that analgesic drug use during pregnancy may have neurodisruptive properties. However, no firm conclusions have yet been drawn on the associations between prenatal analgesic drug use and children's long-term development of neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism spectrum disorder (ASD) or attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Therefore, an umbrella review is proposed for the purpose of examining the associations between maternal analgesic drug use during pregnancy and diagnoses of neurodevelopmental disorders.

METHODS

Included systematic reviews will consist of studies examining the effect of maternal prenatal analgesic drug use, specifically ibuprofen, acetaminophen, aspirin, naproxen, diclofenac, and ketoprofen, on children's neurodevelopmental disorder status. Examined drugs were restricted to those readily accessible and frequently used by pregnant women, and with characteristics that allow them to cross the placenta and directly affect fetal development. Outcomes will be restricted to formal clinical diagnoses of ASD and/or ADHD. Two reviewers will independently identify eligible reviews from six databases (e.g., PubMed, EMBASE, PsychINFO) from inception dates of databases to the date of data extraction, and conduct manual searches of reference lists, consultation with field experts, and scan of pre-print archives. Extracted data will also include short qualitative summaries by both reviewers. As part of quality assessment, a standardized measurement tool to assess systematic reviews (AMSTAR 2) will be used. A narrative synthesis is proposed to integrate findings from different, potentially methodologically heterogeneous, studies.

DISCUSSION

This umbrella review of associations between maternal prenatal use of analgesic drugs and children's neurodevelopmental disorders could allow for firmer conclusions to be drawn through the synthesis of all relevant published research. The synthesis of findings using high-quality evidence could provide more accurate healthcare information on the long-term effects of analgesic drugs on neurodevelopment, to better guide future clinical decisions during pregnancy. This review will also allow gaps and methodological differences in the literature to be identified, informing recommendations for future research.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42020179216 .

Reading and interpreting reviews for health professionals: a practical review

Literature reviews can be directly used by clinicians and other health professionals to support many decision-making processes. This review aims to offer health professionals an essential practical guide to critically evaluate and properly understand results of review articles published in the scientific literature. An evidence-based methodological review with step-by-step theoretical concepts and practical suggestions was developed. Key steps of this guide are: to consider the topic and the research question (a), to check the review type (b), to evaluate the methodology (with a keen focus on review guidelines, search strategy and study-selection process, evaluation of the quality and certainty of included evidence, and statistical analysis) (c), and to define the real impact of review results (d). This guide offers a description of essential and easy-to-apply key steps which can help health professionals to evaluate the reliability and implications of a literature review, and to select the latest high-quality scientific evidence to keep updated with.

Cardiovascular Toxicity of Targeted Therapies for Cancer: An Overview of Systematic Reviews

Background

Several targeted therapies for cancer have been associated with cardiovascular toxicity. The evidence for this association has not been synthesized systematically nor has the quality of evidence been considered. We synthesized systematic review evidence of cardiovascular toxicity of individual targeted agents.

Methods

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for systematic reviews with meta-analyses of cardiovascular outcomes for individual agents published to May 2020. We selected reviews according to prespecified eligibility criteria (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews CRD42017080014). We classified evidence of cardiovascular toxicity as sufficient, probable, possible, or indeterminate for specific cardiovascular outcomes based on statistical significance, study quality, and size.

Results

From 113 systematic reviews, we found at least probable systematic review evidence of cardiovascular toxicity for 18 agents, including high- and all-grade hypertension for bevacizumab, ramucirumab, axitinib, cediranib, pazopanib, sorafenib, sunitinib, vandetanib, aflibercept, abiraterone, and enzalutamide, and all-grade hypertension for nintedanib; high- and all-grade arterial thromboembolism (includes cardiac and/or cerebral events) for bevacizumab and abiraterone, high-grade arterial thromboembolism for trastuzumab, and all-grade arterial thromboembolism for sorafenib and tamoxifen; high- and all-grade venous thromboembolism (VTE) for lenalidomide and thalidomide, high-grade VTE for cetuximab and panitumumab, and all-grade VTE for bevacizumab; high- and all-grade left ventricular ejection fraction decline or congestive heart failure for bevacizumab and trastuzumab, and all-grade left ventricular ejection fraction decline/congestive heart failure for pazopanib and sunitinib; and all-grade corrected QT interval prolongation for vandetanib.

Conclusions

Our review provides an accessible summary of the cardiovascular toxicity of targeted therapy to assist clinicians and patients when managing cardiovascular health.

Ozone exposure and health effects: a protocol for an umbrella review and effect-specific systematic maps

INTRODUCTION

Ambient ozone exposure may be adverse to health. Since the reported associations between ozone and health effects are heterogeneous and the underlying pathways are indistinct, the overall relationship remains unclear. Only a few overall syntheses of the evidence regarding ozone and health effects are available to date.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We plan to summarise the current evidence on ozone-related health effects systematically. First, to identify the possible associations between ambient ozone exposure and health outcomes, we will conduct an umbrella review. PubMed, Web of Science and grey literature will be searched for systematic reviews on exposure to ambient ozone and any possible health endpoints published before 31 May 2019. Data selection and extraction will be carried out by one reviewer, and a second reviewer will check the agreement of a sample of the studies. The methodological quality of the eligible systematic reviews and level of evidence regarding ozone and every specific health effect will be evaluated. Second, for each of the identified effects with a high level of evidence, comprehensive information retrievals will be conducted, considering both epidemiological and experimental studies. The study selection and data mapping will be carried out by one reviewer and checked by the second reviewer. We will summarise the information of the filtered epidemiological and experimental studies to conduct several systematic maps presenting the currently available evidence for the specific health effect. Because the association between ozone exposure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is relatively well investigated, we will at least conduct one systematic map of ozone and COPD.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

No ethical approval is required for this study. The completed umbrella review and systematic maps will be considered for publication and presentation. We will additionally upload the relevant data to publicly accessible online databases.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42019123064.

What Influences the Implementation of Shared Decision Making: An Umbrella Review

OBJECTIVE

To provide a cogent summation of the evidence base of the key barriers and facilitators to implementing shared decision making (SDM).

METHODS

An umbrella review of existing reviews on SDM was adopted. Databases were searched from 1997 to December 2018. Studies were included if they performed a review of barriers and facilitators to SDM.

RESULTS

7 eligible reviews were identified. The five themes identified were: patient factors, professional factors, environmental factors, relationship factors, and factors related to information provision. Lack of time was the main factor hindering the implementation of SDM. Encouragement and motivation of providers to use SDM was a significant enabler of SDM implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

The provision of time and resources are insufficient if not accompanied by efforts to support and motivate providers to use SDM.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

Healthcare providers need to be educated on the importance of building a relationship with their patients. To enhance this relationship, physicians may need to improve their interaction skills. They need to be curious and explore their patients' preferences, listen to them and respect their opinions, explain options and outcomes, and encourage them to participate in the decision making.

Effect of low-dose aspirin on health outcomes: An umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses

AIMS

This study aimed to use an umbrella review methodology to capture the range of outcomes that were associated with low-dose aspirin and to systematically assess the credibility of this evidence.

METHODS

Aspirin is associated with several health outcomes, but the overall benefit/risk balance related to aspirin use is unclear. We searched three major databases up to 15 August 2019 for meta-analyses of observational studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) including low-dose aspirin compared to placebo or other treatments. Based on random-effects summary effect sizes, 95% prediction intervals, heterogeneity, small-study effects and excess significance, significant meta-analyses of observational studies were classified from convincing (class I) to weak (class IV). For meta-analyses of RCTs, outcomes with random effects P-value < .005 and a moderate/high GRADE assessment, were classified as strong evidence. From 6802 hits, 67 meta-analyses (156 outcomes) were eligible.

RESULTS

Observational data showed highly suggestive evidence for aspirin use and increased risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (RR = 2.28, 95% CI: 1.97-2.64). In RCTs of low-dose aspirin, we observed strong evidence for lower risk of CVD in people without CVD (RR = 0.83; 95% CI: 0.79-0.87) and in general population (RR = 0.83; 95% CI: 0.79-0.89), higher risk of major gastrointestinal (RR = 1.47; 95% CI: 1.26-1.72) and intracranial bleeding (RR = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.18-1.53), and of major bleedings in people without CVD (RR = 1.62; 95% CI: 1.26-2.08).

CONCLUSION

Compared to other active medications, low-dose aspirin had strong evidence for lower risk of bleeding, but also lower comparative efficacy. Low-dose aspirin significantly lowers CVD risk and increases risk of bleeding. Evidence for multiple other health outcomes is limited.

Tea Consumption and Risk of Cancer: An Umbrella Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Tea is one of the most widely consumed beverages, but its association with cancer risk remains controversial and unclear. We performed an umbrella review to clarify and determine the associations between tea consumption and various types of cancer by summarizing and recalculating the existing meta-analyses. Meta-analyses of observational studies reporting associations between tea consumption and cancer risk were searched on PubMed and Embase. Associations found to be statistically significant were further classified into levels of evidence (convincing, suggestive, or weak), based on P value, between-study heterogeneity, prediction intervals, and small study effects. Sixty-four observational studies (case-control or cohort) corresponding to 154 effect sizes on the incidence of 25 types of cancer were included. Forty-three (27.9%) results in 15 different types of cancer were statistically significant. When combining all studies on the same type of cancer, 19 results in 11 different types of cancer showed significant associations with lower risk of gastrointestinal tract organ cancer (oral, gastric, colorectal, biliary tract, and liver cancer), breast cancer, and gynecological cancer (endometrial and ovarian cancer) as well as leukemia, lung cancer, and thyroid cancer. Only the reduced risk of oral cancer in tea-consuming populations (OR = 0.62; 95% CI: 0.55, 0.72; P value < 10-6) was supported by convincing evidence. Suggestive evidence was found for 6 results on biliary tract, breast, endometrial, liver, and oral cancer. To summarize, tea consumption was shown to have protective effects on some types of cancer, particularly oral cancer. More well-designed prospective studies are needed with consideration of other factors that can cause biases.

Epidemiology of Cancers in Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM): A Protocol for Umbrella Review of Systematic Reviews

While earlier studies on men having sex with men (MSM) tended to examine infection-related cancers, an increasing number of studies have been focusing on effects of sexual orientation on other cancers and social and cultural causes for cancer disparities. As a type of tertiary research, this umbrella review (UR) aims to synthesize findings from existing review studies on the effects of sexual orientation on cancer. Relevant peer-reviewed systematic reviews (SRs) will be identified without date or language restrictions using MEDLINE, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and the International Prospective Register for Systematic Reviews, among others. The research team members will prepare the data extraction forms. Two reviewers will independently assess extracted SRs using the Assessment of Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews. A third reviewer will weigh in to resolve discrepancies. The reviewers will be blinded to publisher, journal, and authors, making their judgements on the title, year, and abstract. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis checklist will guide data synthesis. By collating evidence from multiple reviews into one accessible and usable document, our first UR on global epidemiology of malignancies among MSM would serve as an evidence-based decision-making tool for the public health community.

Prevention of Psychosis: Advances in Detection, Prognosis, and Intervention

IMPORTANCE

Detection, prognosis, and indicated interventions in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) are key components of preventive psychiatry.

OBJECTIVE

To provide a comprehensive, evidence-based systematic appraisal of the advancements and limitations of detection, prognosis, and interventions for CHR-P individuals and to formulate updated recommendations.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Reviews, and Ovid/PsychINFO were searched for articles published from January 1, 2013, to June 30, 2019, to identify meta-analyses conducted in CHR-P individuals. MEDLINE was used to search the reference lists of retrieved articles. Data obtained from each article included first author, year of publication, topic investigated, type of publication, study design and number, sample size of CHR-P population and comparison group, type of comparison group, age and sex of CHR-P individuals, type of prognostic assessment, interventions, quality assessment (using AMSTAR [Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews]), and key findings with their effect sizes.

FINDINGS

In total, 42 meta-analyses published in the past 6 years and encompassing 81 outcomes were included. For the detection component, CHR-P individuals were young (mean [SD] age, 20.6 [3.2] years), were more frequently male (58%), and predominantly presented with attenuated psychotic symptoms lasting for more than 1 year before their presentation at specialized services. CHR-P individuals accumulated several sociodemographic risk factors compared with control participants. Substance use (33% tobacco use and 27% cannabis use), comorbid mental disorders (41% with depressive disorders and 15% with anxiety disorders), suicidal ideation (66%), and self-harm (49%) were also frequently seen in CHR-P individuals. CHR-P individuals showed impairments in work (Cohen d = 0.57) or educational functioning (Cohen d = 0.21), social functioning (Cohen d = 1.25), and quality of life (Cohen d = 1.75). Several neurobiological and neurocognitive alterations were confirmed in this study. For the prognosis component, the prognostic accuracy of CHR-P instruments was good, provided they were used in clinical samples. Overall, risk of psychosis was 22% at 3 years, and the risk was the highest in the brief and limited intermittent psychotic symptoms subgroup (38%). Baseline severity of attenuated psychotic (Cohen d = 0.35) and negative symptoms (Cohen d = 0.39) as well as low functioning (Cohen d = 0.29) were associated with an increased risk of psychosis. Controlling risk enrichment and implementing sequential risk assessments can optimize prognostic accuracy. For the intervention component, no robust evidence yet exists to favor any indicated intervention over another (including needs-based interventions and control conditions) for preventing psychosis or ameliorating any other outcome in CHR-P individuals. However, because the uncertainty of this evidence is high, needs-based and psychological interventions should still be offered.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This review confirmed recent substantial advancements in the detection and prognosis of CHR-P individuals while suggesting that effective indicated interventions need to be identified. This evidence suggests a need for specialized services to detect CHR-P individuals in primary and secondary care settings, to formulate a prognosis with validated psychometric instruments, and to offer needs-based and psychological interventions.

Evidence-based Umbrella Review of Cognitive Effects of Prefrontal tDCS

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a non-invasive brain stimulation technique, which has been increasingly used as an investigational tool in neuroscience. In social and affective neuroscience research, the prefrontal cortex has been primarily targeted, since this brain region is critically involved in complex psychobiological processes subserving both Șhotș and Școldș domains. Although several studies have suggested that prefrontal tDCS can enhance neuropsychological outcomes, meta-analyses have reported conflicting results. Therefore, we aimed to assess the available evidence by performing an umbrella review of meta-analyses. We evaluated the effects of prefrontal active vs sham tDCS on different domains of cognition among healthy and neuropsychiatric individuals. A MeaSurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews 2 was employed to evaluate the quality of meta-analyses, and the GRADE system was employed to grade the quality of evidence of every comparison from each meta-analysis. PubMed/MEDLINE, PsycINFO and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched, and 11 meta-analyses were included resulting in 55 comparisons. Only 16 comparisons reported significant effects favoring tDCS, but 13 of them had either very low or low quality of evidence. Of the remaining 39 comparisons which reported non-significant effects, 38 had either very low or low quality of evidence. Meta-analyses were rated as having critically low and low quality. Among several reasons to explain these findings, the lack of consensus and reproducibility in tDCS research is discussed.

Factors Associated With Loneliness: An Umbrella Review Of Observational Studies

BACKGROUND

Evidence provides inconsistent findings on risk factors and health outcomes associated with loneliness. The aim of this work was to grade the evidence on risk factors and health outcomes associated with loneliness, using an umbrella review approach.

METHODS

For each meta-analytic association, random-effects summary effect size, 95% confidence intervals (CIs), heterogeneity, evidence for small-study effect, excess significance bias and 95% prediction intervals were calculated, and used to grade significant evidence (p<0.05) from convincing to weak. For narrative systematic reviews, findings were reported descriptively.

RESULTS

From 210 studies initially evaluated, 14 publications were included, reporting on 18 outcomes, 795 studies, and 746,706 participants. Highly suggestive evidence (class II) supported the association between loneliness and incident dementia (relative risk, RR=1.26; 95%CI: 1.14-1.40, I² 23.6%), prevalent paranoia (odds ratio, OR=3.36; 95%CI: 2.51-4.49, I² 92.8%) and prevalent psychotic symptoms (OR=2.33; 95%CI: 1.68-3.22, I² 56.5%). Pooled data supported the longitudinal association between loneliness and suicide attempts and depressive symptoms. In narrative systematic reviews, factors cross-sectionally associated with loneliness were age (in a U-shape way), female sex, quality of social contacts, low competence, socio-economic status and medical chronic conditions.

LIMITATIONS

Low quality of the studies included; mainly cross-sectional evidence.

CONCLUSIONS

This work is the first meta-evidence synthesis showing that highly suggestive and significant evidence supports the association between loneliness and adverse mental and physical health outcomes. More cohort studies are needed to disentangle the direction of the association between risk factors for loneliness and its related health outcomes.

Systematic reviews and meta-analysis in nutrition research

There exists an ever-increasing number of systematic reviews, with or without meta-analysis, in the field of nutrition. Concomitant with this increase is the increased use of such to guide future research as well as both practice and policy-based decisions. Given this increased production and consumption, a need exists to educate both producers and consumers of systematic reviews, with or without meta-analysis, on how to conduct and evaluate high-quality reviews of this nature in nutrition. The purpose of this paper is to try and address this gap. In the present manuscript, the different types of systematic reviews, with or without meta-analyses, are described as well as the description of the major elements, including methodology and interpretation, with a focus on nutrition. It is hoped that this non-technical information will be helpful to producers, reviewers and consumers of systematic reviews, with or without meta-analysis, in the field of nutrition.

Evidence for deprescription in primary care through an umbrella review

BACKGROUND

There is a high prevalence of potentially inappropriate prescriptions in primary care. This is associated with more frequent adverse events, lower quality of life and more frequent visits to hospital accident & emergency departments. The aim of the present study is to summarise available evidence on the effectiveness of deprescription interventions in primary care, and to describe the barriers and enablers of the process from the point of view of patients and healthcare professionals.

METHODS

We designed an umbrella review which includes nine systematic reviews. More than 50% of included studies were performed with adults in primary care. Two reviewers independently performed data extraction and analysis.

RESULTS

In considering studies of the effectiveness of interventions, it can be observed that the educational component of deprescription procedures is a key factor, whilst procedures tailored towards the patient's situation offer better results. With regards to studies involving healthcare professionals, the main explored areas were the balance between risks and benefits, and the need to improve communication with patients as well as other colleagues involved in patient care. Amongst the identified barriers we found lack of time, inability to access all information, being stuck in a routine, resistance to change and a lack of willingness to question the prescription decisions made by healthcare colleagues. With regards to patients, it is clear that they have worries and doubts. In order to overcome these issues, a good relationship with healthcare professionals and receipt of their support is required during the process.

CONCLUSIONS

Optimizing medication through targeted deprescribing is an important part of managing chronic conditions, avoiding adverse effects and improving outcomes. The majority of deprescription interventions in primary care are effective. Good communication between healthcare professionals is a key element for success in the deprescription process.

Consumption of Fish and ω-3 Fatty Acids and Cancer Risk: An Umbrella Review of Meta-Analyses of Observational Studies

Multiple studies have suggested that ω-3 fatty acid intake may have a protective effect on cancer risk; however, its true association with cancer risk remains controversial. We performed an umbrella review of meta-analyses to summarize and evaluate the evidence for the association between ω-3 fatty acid intake and cancer outcomes. We searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception to December 1, 2018. We included meta-analyses of observational studies that examined associations between intake of fish or ω-3 fatty acid and cancer risk (gastrointestinal, liver, breast, gynecologic, prostate, brain, lung, and skin) and determined the level of evidence of associations. In addition, we appraised the quality of the evidence of significant meta-analyses by using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system. We initially screened 598 articles, and 15 articles, including 57 meta-analyses, were eligible. Among 57 meta-analyses, 15 reported statistically significant results. We found that 12 meta-analyses showed weak evidence of an association between ω-3 fatty acid intake and risk of the following types of cancer: liver cancer (n = 4 of 6), breast cancer (n = 3 of 14), prostate cancer (n = 3 of 11), and brain tumor (n = 2 of 2). In the other 3 meta-analyses, studies of endometrial cancer and skin cancer, there were no assessable data for determining the evidence levels. No meta-analysis showed convincing, highly suggestive, or suggestive evidence of an association. In the sensitivity analysis of meta-analyses by study design, we found weak associations between ω-3 fatty acid intake and breast cancer risk in cohort studies, but no statistically significant association in case-control studies. However, the opposite results were found in case of brain tumor risk. Although ω-3 fatty acids have been studied in several meta-analyses with regard to a wide range of cancer outcomes, only weak associations were identified in some cancer types, with several limitations. Considering the nonsignificant or weak evidence level, clinicians and researchers should cautiously interpret reported associations between ω-3 fatty acid consumption and cancer risks.

Risk and protective factors for anxiety and obsessive-compulsive disorders: an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses

BACKGROUND

A multitude of risk/protective factors for anxiety and obsessive-compulsive disorders have been proposed. We conducted an umbrella review to summarize the evidence of the associations between risk/protective factors and each of the following disorders: specific phobia, social anxiety disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, panic disorder, and obsessive-compulsive disorder, and to assess the strength of this evidence whilst controlling for several biases.

METHODS

Publication databases were searched for systematic reviews and meta-analyses examining associations between potential risk/protective factors and each of the disorders investigated. The evidence of the association between each factor and disorder was graded into convincing, highly suggestive, suggestive, weak, or non-significant according to a standardized classification based on: number of cases (>1000), random-effects p-values, 95% prediction intervals, confidence interval of the largest study, heterogeneity between studies, study effects, and excess of significance.

RESULTS

Nineteen systematic reviews and meta-analyses were included, corresponding to 216 individual studies covering 427 potential risk/protective factors. Only one factor association (early physical trauma as a risk factor for social anxiety disorder, OR 2.59, 95% CI 2.17-3.1) met all the criteria for convincing evidence. When excluding the requirement for more than 1000 cases, five factor associations met the other criteria for convincing evidence and 22 met the remaining criteria for highly suggestive evidence.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the amount and quality of the evidence for most risk/protective factors for anxiety and obsessive-compulsive disorders is limited, a number of factors significantly increase the risk for these disorders, may have potential prognostic ability and inform prevention.

Database combinations to retrieve systematic reviews in overviews of reviews: a methodological study

Background

When conducting an Overviews of Reviews on health-related topics, it is unclear which combination of bibliographic databases authors should use for searching for SRs. Our goal was to determine which databases included the most systematic reviews and identify an optimal database combination for searching systematic reviews.

Methods

A set of 86 Overviews of Reviews with 1219 included systematic reviews was extracted from a previous study. Inclusion of the systematic reviews was assessed in MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase, Epistemonikos, PsycINFO, and TRIP. The mean inclusion rate (% of included systematic reviews) and corresponding 95% confidence interval were calculated for each database individually, as well as for combinations of MEDLINE with each other database and reference checking.

Results

Inclusion of systematic reviews was higher in MEDLINE than in any other single database (mean inclusion rate 89.7%; 95% confidence interval [89.0–90.3%]). Combined with reference checking, this value increased to 93.7% [93.2–94.2%]. The best combination of two databases plus reference checking consisted of MEDLINE and Epistemonikos (99.2% [99.0–99.3%]). Stratification by Health Technology Assessment reports (97.7% [96.5–98.9%]) vs. Cochrane Overviews (100.0%) vs. non-Cochrane Overviews (99.3% [99.1–99.4%]) showed that inclusion was only slightly lower for Health Technology Assessment reports. However, MEDLINE, Epistemonikos, and reference checking remained the best combination. Among the 10/1219 systematic reviews not identified by this combination, five were published as websites rather than journals, two were included in CINAHL and Embase, and one was included in the database ERIC.

Conclusions

MEDLINE and Epistemonikos, complemented by reference checking of included studies, is the best database combination to identify systematic reviews on health-related topics.

Evidence-based umbrella review of 162 peripheral biomarkers for major mental disorders

The literature on non-genetic peripheral biomarkers for major mental disorders is broad, with conflicting results. An umbrella review of meta-analyses of non-genetic peripheral biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease, autism spectrum disorder, bipolar disorder (BD), major depressive disorder, and schizophrenia, including first-episode psychosis. We included meta-analyses that compared alterations in peripheral biomarkers between participants with mental disorders to controls (i.e., between-group meta-analyses) and that assessed biomarkers after treatment (i.e., within-group meta-analyses). Evidence for association was hierarchically graded using a priori defined criteria against several biases. The Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) instrument was used to investigate study quality. 1161 references were screened. 110 met inclusion criteria, relating to 359 meta-analytic estimates and 733,316 measurements, on 162 different biomarkers. Only two estimates met a priori defined criteria for convincing evidence (elevated awakening cortisol levels in euthymic BD participants relative to controls and decreased pyridoxal levels in participants with schizophrenia relative to controls). Of 42 estimates which met criteria for highly suggestive evidence only five biomarker aberrations occurred in more than one disorder. Only 15 meta-analyses had a power >0.8 to detect a small effect size, and most (81.9%) meta-analyses had high heterogeneity. Although some associations met criteria for either convincing or highly suggestive evidence, overall the vast literature of peripheral biomarkers for major mental disorders is affected by bias and is underpowered. No convincing evidence supported the existence of a trans-diagnostic biomarker. Adequately powered and methodologically sound future large collaborative studies are warranted.

Assessing the association between fluoroquinolones and emerging adverse drug reactions raised by regulatory agencies: An umbrella review

BACKGROUND

Regulatory agencies warned against fluoroquinolones for the management of minor infections because of the risk of emerging adverse events (collagen-associated adverse events, neuropsychiatric toxicity and long-term disability). We aimed to assess quality and credibility of evidence as well as causality regarding these putative associations.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science and PROSPERO were searched, from inception to August 2019, for systematic reviews with meta-analyses investigating emerging adverse events. Two investigators extracted data to grade quality (through validated AMSTAR-2 tool), rank credibility of the evidence (convincing, highly suggestive, suggestive, weak) through adapted criteria including E-value calculation, and assess causality (Hill's criteria).

RESULTS

Seven systematic reviews of observational studies providing 16 risk estimates [seven, five and four, respectively, for aortic aneurysm/dissection (AAD), retinal detachment (RD) and any tendon disorders (ATD)] met inclusion criteria. No systematic reviews with meta-analysis investigating the risk of neuropsychiatric toxicity or long-term disability were found. The associations between fluoroquinolones and AAD/ATD showed highly suggestive credibility and were supported by strong evidence of causality (double increased risk, especially within first 2 months of treatment). Conflicting data concerning the emergence of RD were retrieved, resulting in weak evidence of causality. Quality of the evidence ranged from high to low for AAD, from moderate to critically low for RD, and it was moderate for ATD.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis supports credible, plausible and highly suggestive associations with AAD (rare occurrence but strong causality) and ATD. Limitations of both umbrella reviews and observational evidence should be considered.

Prenatal and perinatal risk and protective factors for psychosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Prenatal and perinatal insults are implicated in the aetiopathogenesis of psychotic disorders but the consistency and magnitude of their associations with psychosis have not been updated for nearly two decades. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date synthesis of the evidence on the association between prenatal or perinatal risk and protective factors and psychotic disorders.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched the Web of Science database for articles published up to July 20, 2019. We identified cohort and case-control studies examining the association (odds ratio [OR]) between prenatal and perinatal factors and any International Classification of Diseases (ICD) or Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) non-organic psychotic disorder with a healthy comparison group. Other inclusion criteria were enough data available to do the analyses, and non-overlapping datasets. We excluded reviews, meta-analyses, abstracts or conference proceedings, and articles with overlapping datasets. Data were extracted according to EQUATOR and PRISMA guidelines. Extracted variables included first author, publication year, study type, sample size, type of psychotic diagnosis (non-affective psychoses or schizophrenia-spectrum disorders, affective psychoses) and diagnostic instrument (DSM or ICD and version), the risk or protective factor, and measure of association (primary outcome). We did random-effects pairwise meta-analyses, Q statistics, I² index, sensitivity analyses, meta-regressions, and assessed study quality and publication bias. The study protocol was registered at PROSPERO, CRD42017079261.

FINDINGS

152 studies relating to 98 risk or protective factors were eligible for analysis. Significant risk factors were: maternal age younger than 20 years (OR 1·17) and 30-34 years (OR 1·05); paternal age younger than 20 years (OR 1·31) and older than 35 years (OR 1·28); any maternal (OR 4·60) or paternal (OR 2·73) psychopathology; maternal psychosis (OR 7·61) and affective disorder (OR 2·26); three or more pregnancies (OR 1·30); herpes simplex 2 (OR 1·35); maternal infections not otherwise specified (NOS; OR 1·27); suboptimal number of antenatal visits (OR 1·83); winter (OR 1·05) and winter to spring (OR 1·05) season of birth in the northern hemisphere; maternal stress NOS (OR 2·40); famine (OR 1·61); any famine or nutritional deficits in pregnancy (OR 1·40); maternal hypertension (OR 1·40); hypoxia (OR 1·63); ruptured (OR 1·86) and premature rupture (OR 2·29) of membranes; polyhydramnios (OR 3·05); definite obstetric complications NOS (OR 1·83); birthweights of less than 2000 g (OR 1·84), less than 2500 g (OR 1·53), or 2500-2999 g (OR 1·23); birth length less than 49 cm (OR 1·17); small for gestational age (OR 1·40); premature birth (OR 1·35), and congenital malformations (OR 2·35). Significant protective factors were maternal ages 20-24 years (OR 0·93) and 25-29 years (OR 0·92), nulliparity (OR 0·91), and birthweights 3500-3999 g (OR 0·90) or more than 4000 g (OR 0·86). The results were corrected for publication biases; sensitivity and meta-regression analyses confirmed the robustness of these findings for most factors.

INTERPRETATION

Several prenatal and perinatal factors are associated with the later onset of psychosis. The updated knowledge emerging from this study could refine understanding of psychosis pathogenesis, enhance multivariable risk prediction, and inform preventive strategies.

FUNDING

None.

Methodological and Terminological Issues in Animal-Assisted Interventions: An Umbrella Review of Systematic Reviews

Simple Summary

Animal-assisted interventions (AAIs) include a wide range of activities aimed at improving the health and well-being of people with the help of pets. Although there have been many studies on the effects of these interventions on animal and human wellbeing and health, univocal data on the methodological aspects, regarding type and duration of intervention, operators, involved animal species, and so on, are still lacking. In this regard, several systematic reviews in the scientific literature have already explored and outlined some methodological aspects of animal-assisted interventions. Therefore, we developed an umbrella review (UR) which summarizes the data of a set of suitable systematic reviews (SRs), in order to clarify how these Interventions are carried out. From our results, it is shown that there is a widespread heterogeneity in the scientific literature concerning the study and implementation of these interventions. These results highlight the need for the development and, consequently, the diffusion of protocols (not only operational, but also research approaches) providing for a univocal use of globally recognized terminologies and facilitating comparison between the numerous experiences carried out and reported in the field.

Abstract

Recently, animal-assisted interventions (AAIs), which are defined as psychological, educational, and rehabilitation support activities, have become widespread in different contexts. For many years, they have been a subject of interest in the international scientific community and are at the center of an important discussion regarding their effectiveness and the most appropriate practices for their realization. We carried out an umbrella review (UR) of systematic reviews (SRs), created for the purpose of exploring the literature and aimed at deepening the terminological and methodological aspects of AAIs. It is created by exploring the online databases PubMed, Google Scholar, and Cochrane Library. The SRs present in the high-impact indexed search engines Web of Sciences and Scopus are selected. After screening, we selected 15 SRs that met the inclusion criteria. All papers complained of the poor quality of AAIs; some considered articles containing interventions that did not always correspond to the terminology they have explored and whose operating practices were not always comparable. This stresses the need for the development and consequent diffusion of not only operational protocols, but also research protocols which provide for the homogeneous use of universally recognized terminologies, thus facilitating the study, deepening, and comparison between the numerous experiences described.

Annual Research Review: Umbrella synthesis of meta-analyses on child maltreatment antecedents and interventions: differential susceptibility perspective on risk and resilience

Child maltreatment in the family context is a prevalent and pervasive phenomenon in many modern societies. The global perpetration of child abuse and neglect stands in stark contrast to its almost universal condemnation as exemplified in the United Nation's Convention on the Rights of the Child. Much work has been devoted to the task of prevention, yet a grand synthesis of the literature is missing. Focusing on two core elements of prevention, that is, antecedents for maltreatment and the effectiveness of (preventative) interventions, we performed an umbrella review of meta-analyses published between January 1, 2014, and December 17, 2018. Meta-analyses were systematically collected, assessed, and integrated following a uniform approach to allow their comparison across domains. From this analysis of thousands of studies including almost 1.5 million participants, the following risk factors were derived: parental experience of maltreatment in his or her own childhood (d = .47), low socioeconomic status of the family (d = .34), dependent and aggressive parental personality (d = .45), intimate partner violence (d = .41), and higher baseline autonomic nervous system activity (d = .24). The effect size for autonomic stress reactivity was not significant (d = -.10). The umbrella review of interventions to prevent or reduce child maltreatment showed modest intervention effectiveness (d = .23 for interventions targeting child abuse potential or families with self-reported maltreatment and d = .27 for officially reported child maltreatment cases). Despite numerous studies on child maltreatment, some large gaps in our knowledge of antecedents exist. Neurobiological antecedents should receive more research investment. Differential susceptibility theory may shed more light on questions aimed at breaking the intergenerational transmission of maltreatment and on the modest (preventive) intervention effects. In combination with family-based interaction-focused interventions, large-scale socioeconomic experiments such as cash transfer trials and experiments with vouchers to move to a lower-poverty area might be tested to prevent or reduce child maltreatment. Prevalence, antecedents, and preventive interventions of prenatal maltreatment deserve continuing scientific, clinical, and policy attention.

An umbrella review comparing computer-assisted and conventional total joint arthroplasty: quality assessment and summary of evidence

Background

Systematic reviews (SRs) of computer-assisted (CA) total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA) report conflicting evidence on its superiority over conventional surgery. Little is known about the quality of these SRs; variability in their methodological quality may be a contributing factor. We evaluated the methodological quality of all published SRs to date, summarized and examined the consistency of the evidence generated by these SRs.

Methods

We searched four databases through December 31, 2018. A MeaSurement Tool to Assess systematic Reviews 2 (AMSTAR 2) was applied to assess the methodological quality. Evidence from included meta-analyses on functional, radiological and patient-safety outcomes was summarized. The corrected covered area was calculated to assess the overlap between SRs in including the primary studies.

Results

Based on AMSTAR 2, confidence was critically low in 39 of the 42 included SRs and low in 3 SRs. Low rating was mainly due to failure in developing a review protocol (90.5%); providing a list of excluded studies (81%); accounting for risk of bias when discussing the results (67%); using a comprehensive search strategy (50%); and investigating publication bias (50%). Despite inconsistency between SR findings comparing functional, radiological and patient safety outcomes for CA and conventional procedures, most TKA meta-analyses favored CA TKA, whereas most THA meta-analyses showed no difference. Moderate overlap was observed among TKA SRs and high overlap among THA SRs.

Conclusions

Despite conclusions of meta-analyses favoring CA arthroplasty, decision makers adopting this technology should be aware of the low confidence in the results of the included SRs. To improve confidence in future SRs, journals should consider using a methodological assessment tool to evaluate the SRs prior to making a publication decision.

What Causes the Onset of Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk? A Meta-analysis of Risk and Protective Factors

Twenty percent of individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) develop the disorder within 2 years. Extensive research has explored the factors that differentiate those who develop psychosis and those who do not, but the results are conflicting. The current systematic review and meta-analysis comprehensively addresses the consistency and magnitude of evidence for non-purely genetic risk and protective factors associated with the risk of developing psychosis in CHR-P individuals. Random effects meta-analyses, standardized mean difference (SMD) and odds ratio (OR) were used, in combination with an established stratification of evidence that assesses the association of each factor and the onset of psychotic disorders (from class I, convincing evidence to class IV weak evidence), while controlling for several types of biases. A total of 128 original controlled studies relating to 26 factors were retrieved. No factors showed class I-convincing evidence. Two further factors were associated with class II-highly suggestive evidence: attenuated positive psychotic symptoms (SMD = 0.348, 95% CI: 0.280, 0.415) and global functioning (SMD = -0.291, 95% CI: -0.370, -0.211). There was class III-suggestive evidence for negative psychotic symptoms (SMD = 0.393, 95% CI: 0.317, 0.469). There was either class IV-weak or no evidence for all other factors. Our findings suggest that despite the large number of putative risk factors investigated in the literature, only attenuated positive psychotic symptoms, global functioning, and negative psychotic symptoms show suggestive evidence or greater for association with transition to psychosis. The current findings may inform the refinement of clinical prediction models and precision medicine in this field.

Mapping Host-Related Correlates of Influenza Vaccine-Induced Immune Response: An Umbrella Review of the Available Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses

Seasonal influenza is the leading infectious disease in terms of its health and socioeconomic impact. Annual immunization is the most efficient way to reduce this burden. Several correlates of influenza vaccine-induced protection are commonly used, owing to their ready availability and cheapness. Influenza vaccine-induced immunogenicity is a function of host-, virus- and vaccine-related factors. Host-related factors constitute the most heterogeneous group. The objective of this study was to analyze the available systematic evidence on the host factors able to modify influenza vaccine-induced immunogenicity. An umbrella review approach was undertaken. A total of 28 systematic reviews/meta-analyses were analyzed—these covered the following domains: intravenous drug use, psychological stress, acute and chronic physical exercise, genetic polymorphisms, use of pre-/pro-/symbiotics, previous Bacillus Calmette–Guérin vaccination, diabetes mellitus, vitamin D supplementation/deficiency, latent cytomegalovirus infection and various forms of immunosuppression. In order to present effect sizes on the same scale, all possible meta-analyses were re-performed and cumulative evidence synthesis ranking was carried out. The meta-analysis was conducted separately on each health condition category and virus (sub)type. A total of 97 pooled estimates were used in order to construct an evidence-based stakeholder-friendly map. The principal public health implications are discussed.

Preventive Treatments for Psychosis: Umbrella Review (Just the Evidence)

Background: Indicated primary prevention in young people at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) is a promising avenue for improving outcomes of one of the most severe mental disorders but their effectiveness has recently been questioned. Methods: Umbrella review. A multi-step independent literature search of Web of Science until January 11, 2019, identified interventional meta-analyses in CHR-P individuals. The individual randomised controlled trials that were analysed by the meta-analyses were extracted. A review of ongoing trials and a simulation of living meta-analysis complemented the analysis. Results: Seven meta-analyses investigating preventive treatments in CHR-P individuals were included. None of them produced pooled effect sizes across psychological, pharmacological, or other types of interventions. The outcomes analysed encompassed risk of psychosis onset, the acceptability of treatments, the severity of attenuated positive/negative psychotic symptoms, depression, symptom-related distress, social functioning, general functioning, and quality of life. These meta-analyses were based on 20 randomised controlled trials: the vast majority defined the prevention of psychosis onset as their primary outcome of interest and only powered to large effect sizes. There was no evidence to favour any preventive intervention over any other (or control condition) for improving any of these clinical outcomes. Caution is required when making clinical recommendations for the prevention of psychosis in individuals at risk. Discussion: Prevention of psychosis from a CHR-P state has been, and should remain, the primary outcome of interventional research, refined and complemented by other clinically meaningful outcomes. Stagnation of knowledge should promote innovative and collaborative research efforts, in line with the progressive and incremental nature of medical knowledge. Advancements will most likely be associated with the development of new experimental therapeutics that are ongoing along with the ability to deconstruct the high heterogeneity within CHR-P populations. This would require the estimation of treatment-specific effect sizes through living individual participant data meta-analyses, controlling risk enrichment during recruitment, statistical power, and embedding precision medicine within youth mental health services that can accommodate sequential prognosis and advanced trial designs. Conclusions: The evidence-based challenges and proposed solutions addressed by this umbrella review can inform the next generation of research into preventive treatments for psychosis.

Association of hospital and surgeon volume with mortality following major surgical procedures: Meta-analysis of meta-analyses of observational studies

Accumulation of the literature has suggested an inverse association between healthcare provider volume and mortality for a wide variety of surgical procedures. This study aimed to perform meta-analysis of meta-analyses (umbrella review) of observational studies and to summarize existing evidence for associations of healthcare provider volume with mortality in major operations.We searched MEDLINE, SCOPUS, and Cochrane Library, and screening of references.Meta-analyses of observational studies examining the association of hospital and surgeon volume with mortality following major operations. The primary outcome is all-cause short-term morality after surgery. Meta-analyses of observational studies of hospital/surgeon volume and mortality were included. Overall level of evidence was classified as convincing (class I), highly suggestive (class II), suggestive (class III), weak (class IV), and non-significant (class V) based on the significance of the random-effects summary odds ratio (OR), number of cases, small-study effects, excess significance bias, prediction intervals, and heterogeneity.Twenty meta-analyses including 4,520,720 patients were included, with 19 types of surgical procedures for hospital volume and 11 types of surgical procedures for surgeon volume. Nominally significant reductions were found in odds ratio in 82% to 84% of surgical procedures in both hospital and surgeon volume-mortality associations. To summarize the overall level of evidence, however, only one surgical procedure (pancreaticoduodenectomy) fulfilled the criteria of class I and II for both hospital and surgeon volume and mortality relationships, with a decrease in OR for hospital (0.42, 95% confidence interval[CI] [0.35-0.51]) and for surgeon (0.38, 95% CI [0.30-0.49]), respectively. In contrast, most of the procedures appeared to be weak or "non-significant."Only a very few surgical procedures such as pancreaticoduodenectomy appeared to have convincing evidence on the inverse surgeon volume-mortality associations, and yet most surgical procedures resulted in having weak or "non-significant" evidence. Therefore, healthcare professionals and policy makers might be required to steer their centralization policy more carefully unless more robust, higher-quality evidence emerges, particularly for procedures considered as having a weak or non-significant evidence level including total knee replacement, thyroidectomy, bariatric surgery, radical cystectomy, and rectal and colorectal cancer resections.

Clinical-learning versus machine-learning for transdiagnostic prediction of psychosis onset in individuals at-risk

Predicting the onset of psychosis in individuals at-risk is based on robust prognostic model building methods including a priori clinical knowledge (also termed clinical-learning) to preselect predictors or machine-learning methods to select predictors automatically. To date, there is no empirical research comparing the prognostic accuracy of these two methods for the prediction of psychosis onset. In a first experiment, no improved performance was observed when machine-learning methods (LASSO and RIDGE) were applied-using the same predictors-to an individualised, transdiagnostic, clinically based, risk calculator previously developed on the basis of clinical-learning (predictors: age, gender, age by gender, ethnicity, ICD-10 diagnostic spectrum), and externally validated twice. In a second experiment, two refined versions of the published model which expanded the granularity of the ICD-10 diagnosis were introduced: ICD-10 diagnostic categories and ICD-10 diagnostic subdivisions. Although these refined versions showed an increase in apparent performance, their external performance was similar to the original model. In a third experiment, the three refined models were analysed under machine-learning and clinical-learning with a variable event per variable ratio (EPV). The best performing model under low EPVs was obtained through machine-learning approaches. The development of prognostic models on the basis of a priori clinical knowledge, large samples and adequate events per variable is a robust clinical prediction method to forecast psychosis onset in patients at-risk, and is comparable to machine-learning methods, which are more difficult to interpret and implement. Machine-learning methods should be preferred for high dimensional data when no a priori knowledge is available.

Effects of physical exercise during pregnancy on mothers' and neonates' health: a protocol for an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

INTRODUCTION

A growing interest has emerged on the effects of exercise during gestation. Several systematic reviews and meta-analyses have shown that prenatal exercise could reduce the mothers' risk for some disorders. Despite this, evidence regarding the risk of caesarean section, birth weight or Apgar score at delivery is still controversial. Furthermore, practitioners are reluctant to recommend exercise to pregnant women suffering from some disorders, such as hypertension, pre-eclampsia or pregnant women with obesity. Moreover, the scarcity of studies addressing the risks and benefits of exercise at higher intensity prevent practitioners from recommending it at higher dosages. Umbrella reviews represent an appropriate design to elucidate the reasons behind the contradictory findings of previous systematic reviews.

METHODS

This protocol was developed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols and the Cochrane Collaboration Handbook. Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane database of systematic reviews, Epistemonikos, Prospero register and SPORTDiscuss databases will be searched to identify systematic reviews, meta-analyses and randomised controlled trials that examine the effect of exercise on pregnancy outcomes from inception to August 2019. Searches will be conducted from September to November 2019.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Methodological quality will be evaluated using the AMSTAR 2 tool. The certainty of evidence and strength of recommendations for meta-analyses will be assessed by the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation framework. The summary effect sizes will be calculated through the use of random-effects and fixed-effects models. Heterogeneity among studies will be assessed using the I2 statistic, and evidence of excess significance bias and evidence of small study effects will also be evaluated.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval will not be needed for this review protocol. The results will be disseminated to academic audiences by peer-reviewed publications. Furthermore, results will be disseminated to clinical audiences through professionals' associations and social networks, and may influence guidelines developers in order to improve outcomes in mothers and offspring.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42019123410.

Antipsychotic use and risk of life-threatening medical events: umbrella review of observational studies

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the risk of hip fracture, thromboembolism, stroke, myocardial infarction, pneumonia and sudden cardiac death associated with exposure to antipsychotics.

METHODS

Systematic searches were conducted in Medline, Embase and PsycINFO from inception until 30/07/2018 for systematic reviews of observational studies. AMSTAR-2 was used for the quality assessment of systematic reviews, while the strength of associations was measured using GRADE and quantitative umbrella review criteria (URC).

RESULTS

Sixty-eight observational studies from six systematic reviews were included. The association between antipsychotic exposure and pneumonia was the strongest [URC = class I; GRADE = low quality; odds ratio (OR) = 1.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.62-2.09; participants = 28 726; age = 76.2 ± 12.3 years], followed by the association with hip fracture (URC = class II; GRADE = low quality; OR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.42-1.74; participants = 5 288 118; age = 55.4 ± 12.5 years), and thromboembolism (URC = class II; GRADE = very low quality; OR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.31-1.83; participants = 31 417 175; age = 55.5 ± 3.2 years). The association was weak for stroke (URC = class III; GRADE = very low quality; OR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.24-1.70; participants = 65 700; age = 68.7 ± 13.8 years), sudden cardiac death (URC = class III; GRADE = very low quality; OR = 2.24, 95% CI = 1.45-3.46; participants = 77 488; age = 52.2 ± 6.2 years) and myocardial infarction (URC = class III; GRADE = very low quality; OR = 2.21, 95% CI = 1.41-3.46; participants = 399 868; age = 74.1 ± 9.3 years).

CONCLUSION

The most robust results were found for the risk of pneumonia, followed by the risk of hip fracture and thromboembolism. For stroke, sudden cardiac death and myocardial infarction, the strength of association was weak. The observational nature of the primary studies may represent a source of bias.

Therapeutic efficacy of orally administered pollen for nonallergic diseases: An umbrella review

Pollen has been used for centuries as a tonic and a multipurpose remedy in traditional medicine. The present umbrella review aims to qualitatively assess the therapeutic efficacy of orally administered pollen in the management of nonallergic diseases. MEDLINE via PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar were systematically searched for relevant systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Articles were independently screened and selected, then quality of evidence of included studies was evaluated with a dedicated NIH tool. Retrieved evidence was critically appraised and discussed. Two hundred four articles were found and, after selection process, five systematic reviews were included in the present work, including one with a meta-analysis. Evidence from these reviews supports the use of grass pollen extracts for symptomatic benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) and chronic prostatitis (CP). Additional preliminary evidence on the topic indicates the potential use of grass pollen extracts for vasomotor symptoms in women. Overall, results of the present review suggest that flower pollen extracts may be useful as a complementary remedy for the management of BPH, CP, and vasomotor symptoms. Evidence regarding bee pollen is too limited to draw any conclusion on its clinical efficacy. Further studies are needed.

Environmental risk factors and biomarkers for autism spectrum disorder: an umbrella review of the evidence

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies have identified potential risk factors and biomarkers for autism spectrum disorder. We aimed to study the strength and validity of the suggested environmental risk factors or biomarkers of autism spectrum disorder.

METHODS

We did an umbrella review and systematically appraised the relevant meta-analyses of observational studies. We searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for papers published between database inception and Oct 17, 2018, and screened the reference list of relevant articles. We obtained the summary effect, 95% CI, heterogeneity, and 95% prediction intervals. We examined small study effects and excess significance. We did analyses under credibility ceilings. This review is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018091704.

FINDINGS

46 eligible articles yielded data on 67 environmental risk factors (544 212 cases, 81 708 787 individuals) and 52 biomarkers (15 614 cases, 15 433 controls). Evidence of association was convincing for maternal age of 35 years or over (relative risk [RR] 1·31, 95% CI 1·18-1·45), maternal chronic hypertension (odds ratio [OR] 1·48, 1·29-1·70), maternal gestational hypertension (OR 1·37, 1·21-1·54), maternal overweight before or during pregnancy (RR 1·28, 1·19-1·36), pre-eclampsia (RR 1·32, 1·20-1·45), prepregnancy maternal antidepressant use (RR 1·48, 1·29-1·71), and maternal selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) use during pregnancy (OR 1·84, 1·60-2·11). Only two associations, maternal overweight before or during pregnancy and SSRI use during pregnancy, retained their high level of evidence under subset sensitivity analyses. Evidence from biomarkers was scarce, being supported by p values close to the significance threshold and too few cases.

INTERPRETATION

Convincing evidence suggests that maternal factors, such as age and features of metabolic syndrome, are associated with risk of autism spectrum disorder. Although SSRI use during pregnancy was also associated with such risk when exposed and non-exposed groups were compared, this association could be affected by other confounding factors, considering that prepregnancy maternal antidepressant use was also convincingly associated with higher risk of autism spectrum disorder. Findings from previous studies suggest that one possible confounding factor is underlying maternal psychiatric disorders.

FUNDING

None.

Systematic reviews and meta-analysis in rheumatology: a gentle introduction for clinicians

Given the plethora of studies today on the same topic, clinicians in rheumatology as well as others increasingly rely on systematic reviews, with or without meta-analysis, to aid in their evidence-based decision-making. However, given time constraints, staying up-to-date on current methods for conducting systematic reviews and meta-analyses as well as interpreting the results of these reviews for application in clinical practice can be challenging. The purpose of this paper is to try and address this gap. In this paper, a description of the different types of systematic reviews and meta-analyses is provided as well as a description of the major elements, including methodology and interpretation of systematic reviews with meta-analyses. Included is a broad, five-question checklist to aid clinicians in rheumatology for making decisions about the utility of a systematic review. It is the hopes that this paper will aid clinicians in rheumatology as well as other consumers of systematic reviews and meta-analyses with the information necessary for judging the utility of systematic reviews and meta-analyses in their own work.

Transdiagnostic Individualized Clinically Based Risk Calculator for the Detection of Individuals at Risk and the Prediction of Psychosis: Model Refinement Including Nonlinear Effects of Age

Background: The first rate-limiting step for primary indicated prevention of psychosis is the detection of young people who may be at risk. The ability of specialized clinics to detect individuals at risk for psychosis is limited. A clinically based, individualized, transdiagnostic risk calculator has been developed and externally validated to improve the detection of individuals at risk in secondary mental health care. This calculator employs core sociodemographic and clinical predictors, including age, which is defined in linear terms. Recent evidence has suggested a nonlinear impact of age on the probability of psychosis onset. Aim: To define at a meta-analytical level the function linking age and probability of psychosis onset. To incorporate this function in a refined version of the transdiagnostic risk calculator and to test its prognostic performance, compared to the original specification. Design: Secondary analyses on a previously published meta-analysis and clinical register-based cohort study based on 2008-2015 routine secondary mental health care in South London and Maudsley (SLaM) National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust. Participants: All patients receiving a first index diagnosis of non-organic/non-psychotic mental disorder within SLaM NHS Trust in the period 2008-2015. Main outcome measure: Prognostic accuracy (Harrell's C). Results: A total of 91,199 patients receiving a first index diagnosis of non-organic and non-psychotic mental disorder within SLaM NHS Trust were included in the derivation (33,820) or external validation (54,716) datasets. The mean follow-up was 1,588 days. The meta-analytical estimates showed that a second-degree fractional polynomial model with power (-2, -1: age1 = age^-2 and age2 = age^-1) was the best-fitting model (P < 0.001). The refined model that included this function showed an excellent prognostic accuracy in the external validation (Harrell's C = 0.805, 95% CI from 0.790 to 0.819), which was statistically higher than the original model, although of modest magnitude (Harrell's C change = 0.0136, 95% CIs from 0.006 to 0.021, P < 0.001). Conclusions: The use of a refined version of the clinically based, individualized, transdiagnostic risk calculator, which allows for nonlinearity in the association between age and risk of psychosis onset, may offer a modestly improved prognostic performance. This calculator may be particularly useful in young individuals at risk of developing psychosis who access secondary mental health care.

The Science of Prognosis in Psychiatry: A Review

IMPORTANCE

Prognosis is a venerable component of medical knowledge introduced by Hippocrates (460-377 BC). This educational review presents a contemporary evidence-based approach for how to incorporate clinical risk prediction models in modern psychiatry. The article is organized around key methodological themes most relevant for the science of prognosis in psychiatry. Within each theme, the article highlights key challenges and makes pragmatic recommendations to improve scientific understanding of prognosis in psychiatry.

OBSERVATIONS

The initial step to building clinical risk prediction models that can affect psychiatric care involves designing the model: preparation of the protocol and definition of the outcomes and of the statistical methods (theme 1). Further initial steps involve carefully selecting the predictors, preparing the data, and developing the model in these data. A subsequent step is the validation of the model to accurately test its generalizability (theme 2). The next consideration is that the accuracy of the clinical prediction model is affected by the incidence of the psychiatric condition under investigation (theme 3). Eventually, clinical prediction models need to be implemented in real-world clinical routine, and this is usually the most challenging step (theme 4). Advanced methods such as machine learning approaches can overcome some problems that undermine the previous steps (theme 5). The relevance of each of these themes to current clinical risk prediction modeling in psychiatry is discussed and recommendations are given.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Together, these perspectives intend to contribute to an integrative, evidence-based science of prognosis in psychiatry. By focusing on the outcome of the individuals, rather than on the disease, clinical risk prediction modeling can become the cornerstone for a scientific and personalized psychiatry.