Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming

Seasonal metabolic acclimatization in the herbivorous desert lizard Uromastyx philbyi (Reptilia: Agamidea) from western Saudi Arabia

Many ectotherms adjust their metabolic rate seasonally in association with variations in environmental temperatures. The range and direction of these seasonal changes in reptilian metabolic rates are thought to be linked to the seasonality of activity and energy requirements. The present study was conducted to measure the standard metabolic rate (SMR) of seasonally-acclimatized Uromastyx philbyi with different body masses at 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40°C using open-flow respirometry during the four seasons. SMR was mass-dependent. The mean exponent of mass, "b", in the metabolism-body mass relation was 0.76 (variance=0.0007). Likewise, SMR increased as temperature increased with low Q10 values at high temperatures and high Q10 values at low temperatures. The lowest and highest Q10 values were achieved for temperature ranges of 30-35°C for summer-acclimatized dhabbs (Q10=1.6) and 20-25°C for winter-acclimatized dhabbs (Q10=3.9). Seasonal acclimatization effects were obvious at all temperatures (20-40°C). Winter-acclimatized dhabbs had the lowest metabolic rates at all temperatures. The seasonal acclimatization patterns displayed by U. philbyi may represent a valuable adaptation for herbivorous desert lizards that inhabit subtropical deserts to facilitate activity during their active seasons and to conserve energy during inactivity at low temperatures.

Thermal fluctuations affect the transcriptome through mechanisms independent of average temperature

Terrestrial ectotherms are challenged by variation in both mean and variance of temperature. Phenotypic plasticity (thermal acclimation) might mitigate adverse effects, however, we lack a fundamental understanding of the molecular mechanisms of thermal acclimation and how they are affected by fluctuating temperature. Here we investigated the effect of thermal acclimation in Drosophila melanogaster on critical thermal maxima (CTmax) and associated global gene expression profiles as induced by two constant and two ecologically relevant (non-stressful) diurnally fluctuating temperature regimes. Both mean and fluctuation of temperature contributed to thermal acclimation and affected the transcriptome. The transcriptomic response to mean temperatures comprised modification of a major part of the transcriptome, while the response to fluctuations affected a much smaller set of genes, which was highly independent of both the response to a change in mean temperature and to the classic heat shock response. Although the independent transcriptional effects caused by fluctuations were relatively small, they are likely to contribute to our understanding of thermal adaptation. We provide evidence that environmental sensing, particularly phototransduction, is a central mechanism underlying the regulation of thermal acclimation to fluctuating temperatures. Thus, genes and pathways involved in phototransduction are likely of importance in fluctuating climates.

Biological responses to environmental heterogeneity under future ocean conditions

Organisms are projected to face unprecedented rates of change in future ocean conditions due to anthropogenic climate-change. At present, marine life encounters a wide range of environmental heterogeneity from natural fluctuations to mean climate change. Manipulation studies suggest that biota from more variable marine environments have more phenotypic plasticity to tolerate environmental heterogeneity. Here, we consider current strategies employed by a range of representative organisms across various habitats - from short-lived phytoplankton to long-lived corals - in response to environmental heterogeneity. We then discuss how, if and when organismal responses (acclimate/migrate/adapt) may be altered by shifts in the magnitude of the mean climate-change signal relative to that for natural fluctuations projected for coming decades. The findings from both novel climate-change modelling simulations and prior biological manipulation studies, in which natural fluctuations are superimposed on those of mean change, provide valuable insights into organismal responses to environmental heterogeneity. Manipulations reveal that different experimental outcomes are evident between climate-change treatments which include natural fluctuations vs. those which do not. Modelling simulations project that the magnitude of climate variability, along with mean climate change, will increase in coming decades, and hence environmental heterogeneity will increase, illustrating the need for more realistic biological manipulation experiments that include natural fluctuations. However, simulations also strongly suggest that the timescales over which the mean climate-change signature will become dominant, relative to natural fluctuations, will vary for individual properties, being most rapid for CO2 (~10 years from present day) to 4 decades for nutrients. We conclude that the strategies used by biota to respond to shifts in environmental heterogeneity may be complex, as they will have to physiologically straddle wide-ranging timescales in the alteration of ocean conditions, including the need to adapt to rapidly rising CO2 and also acclimate to environmental heterogeneity in more slowly changing properties such as warming.

Hydroregulation in a tropical dry-skinned ectotherm

While temperature effects on species' vulnerability to climate change are well studied, desiccation effects receive comparatively little attention. In addition, we poorly understand the capacity of ectotherms, and especially reptiles, to control water loss rates behaviourally by selecting suitable microhabitats. This study examined water loss rates and behavioural hydroregulation in the tropical rainforest skink Carlia rubrigularis to assess whether this dry-skinned ectotherm actively avoids desiccation and whether trade-offs occur between desiccation avoidance and selection of optimal temperatures, as previously shown in amphibians. Higher temperatures elicited humid refuge choice despite placing individuals in suboptimal thermal conditions, as indicated by preferred substrate temperatures. This finding emphasizes the importance of water loss even for taxa traditionally assumed to be highly desiccation resistant, and highlights this factor's potential influence on vulnerability to climate change by limiting activity times or by restricting individuals to thermally suboptimal microhabitats.

How Extreme Temperatures Impact Organisms and the Evolution of their Thermal Tolerance

SynopsisUnderstanding the biological impacts of extreme temperatures requires translating meteorological estimates into organismal responses, but that translation is complex. In general, the physiological stress induced by a given thermal extreme should increase with the extreme's magnitude and duration, though acclimation may buffer that stress. However, organisms can differ strikingly in their exposure to and tolerance of a given extreme temperatures. Moreover, their sensitivity to extremes can vary during ontogeny, across seasons, and among species; and that sensitivity and its variation should be subject to selection. We use a simple quantitative genetic model and demonstrate that thermal extremes-even when at low frequency-can substantially influence the evolution of thermal sensitivity, particularly when the extremes cause mortality or persistent physiological injury, or when organisms are unable to use behavior to buffer exposure to extremes. Thermal extremes can drive organisms in temperate and tropical sites to have similar thermal tolerances despite major differences in mean temperatures. Indeed, the model correctly predicts that Australian Drosophila should have shallower latitudinal gradients in thermal tolerance than would be expected based only on gradients in mean conditions. Predicting responses to climate change requires understanding not only how past selection to tolerate thermal extremes has helped establish existing geographic gradients in thermal tolerances, but also how increasing the incidence of thermal extremes will alter geographic gradients in the future.

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

Parental thermal environment alters offspring sex ratio and fitness in an oviparous lizard

The environment experienced by parents can impact the phenotype of their offspring (parental effects), a critical component of organismal ecology and evolution in variable or changing environments. Although temperature is a central feature of the environment for ectotherms, its role in parental effects has been little explored until recently. Here, parental basking opportunity was manipulated in an oviparous lizard with temperature-dependent sex determination, the jacky dragon (Amphibolurus muricatus). Eggs were incubated at a temperature that typically produces a 50:50 sex ratio, and hatchlings were reared in a standard thermal environment. Offspring of parents in short bask conditions appeared to have better fitness outcomes in captive conditions than those of parents in long bask conditions - they had greater growth and survival as a function of their mass. In addition, the sex of offspring (male or female) depended on the interaction between parental treatment and egg mass, and treatment impacted whether sons or daughters grew larger in their first season. The interactive effects of treatment on offspring sex and growth are consistent with adaptive explanations for the existence of temperature-dependent sex determination in this species. Moreover, the greater performance recorded in short bask offspring may represent an anticipatory parental effect to aid offspring in predicted conditions of restricted thermal opportunity. Together, these responses constitute a crucial component of the population response to spatial or temporal variation in temperature.

Elevational sensitivity in an Asian 'hotspot': moth diversity across elevational gradients in tropical, sub-tropical and sub-alpine China

South-western China is widely acknowledged as a biodiversity ‘hotspot’: there are high levels of diversity and endemism, and many environments are under significant anthropogenic threats not least climate warming. Here, we explore diversity and compare response patterns of moth assemblages among three elevational gradients established within different climatic bioregions - tropical rain forest, sub-tropical evergreen broad-leaved forest and sub-alpine coniferous forest in Yunnan Province, China. We hypothesised that tropical assemblages would be more elevationally stratified than temperate assemblages, and tropical species would be more elevationally restricted than those in the temperate zone. Contrary to our hypothesis, the moth fauna was more sensitive to elevational differences within the temperate transect, followed by sub-tropical and tropical transects. Moths in the cooler and more seasonal temperate sub-alpine gradient showed stronger elevation-decay beta diversity patterns, and more species were restricted to particular elevational ranges. Our study suggests that moth assemblages are under threat from future climate change and sub-alpine rather than tropical faunas may be the most sensitive to climate change. These results improve our understanding of China’s biodiversity and can be used to monitor future changes to herbivore assemblages in a ‘hotspot’ of biodiversity.

Vulnerability to climate change of Anolis allisoni in the mangrove habitats of Banco Chinchorro Islands, Mexico

As niche specialist species, lizards from tropical environments are characterized by a low tolerance and high physiological sensitivity to temperature changes. The extent of vulnerability to thermal changes depends on the lizard's physiological plasticity to adjust the environmental changes. Herein we studied the thermal biology of Anolis allisoni, an endemic arboreal lizard from the tropical islands of the Banco Chinchorro Biosphere Reserve, Mexico, carried out during April and May 2012 and April 2014. We report field body (Tb) and preferred body temperatures in the laboratory (Tpref), operative temperatures (Te) and restriction of hours of activity. Anolis allisoni showed high and identical Tb and Tpref (33°C), not significantly different than the mean Te (32.15°C). The effectiveness of thermoregulation (E=-0.30) and the analysis of hours of restriction suggested that the high temperatures of Te (40-62.5°C) registered at midday (from 12:00 to 15:00) of A. allisoni habitat are hostile and force lizards to take refuge during a period of 3h of their daily time of activity. The scarcity of opportunities to find alternative refuges for thermoregulation in Banco Chinchorro point out the vulnerability of A. allisoni and the risk of local extinction when considering future predictions of increase in global environmental temperatures.

Comparative Phylogeography Reveals Cryptic Diversity and Repeated Patterns of Cladogenesis for Amphibians and Reptiles in Northwestern Ecuador

Comparative phylogeography allow us to understand how shared historical circumstances have shaped the formation of lineages, by examining a broad spectrum of co-distributed populations of different taxa. However, these types of studies are scarce in the Neotropics, a region that is characterized by high diversity, complex geology, and poorly understood biogeography. Here, we investigate the diversification patterns of five lineages of amphibians and reptiles, co-distributed across the Choco and Andes ecoregions in northwestern Ecuador. Mitochondrial DNA and occurrence records were used to determine the degree of geographic genetic divergence within species. Our results highlight congruent patterns of parapatric speciation and common geographical barriers for distantly related taxa. These comparisons indicate similar biological and demographic characteristics for the included clades, and reveal the existence of two new species of Pristimantis previously subsumed under P. walkeri, which we describe herein. Our data supports the hypothesis that widely distributed Chocoan taxa may generally experience their greatest opportunities for isolation and parapatric speciation across thermal elevational gradients. Finally, our study provides critical information to predict which unstudied lineages may harbor cryptic diversity, and how geology and climate are likely to have shaped their evolutionary history.

Plasticity in thermal tolerance has limited potential to buffer ectotherms from global warming

Global warming is increasing the overheating risk for many organisms, though the potential for plasticity in thermal tolerance to mitigate this risk is largely unknown. In part, this shortcoming stems from a lack of knowledge about global and taxonomic patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity. To address this critical issue, we test leading hypotheses for broad-scale variation in ectotherm tolerance plasticity using a dataset that includes vertebrate and invertebrate taxa from terrestrial, freshwater and marine habitats. Contrary to expectation, plasticity in heat tolerance was unrelated to latitude or thermal seasonality. However, plasticity in cold tolerance is associated with thermal seasonality in some habitat types. In addition, aquatic taxa have approximately twice the plasticity of terrestrial taxa. Based on the observed patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity, we propose that limited potential for behavioural plasticity (i.e. behavioural thermoregulation) favours the evolution of greater plasticity in physiological traits, consistent with the 'Bogert effect'. Finally, we find that all ectotherms have relatively low acclimation in thermal tolerance and demonstrate that overheating risk will be minimally reduced by acclimation in even the most plastic groups. Our analysis indicates that behavioural and evolutionary mechanisms will be critical in allowing ectotherms to buffer themselves from extreme temperatures.

Beyond the Mean: Biological Impacts of Cryptic Temperature Change

Studies have typically used shifts in mean temperatures to make predictions about the biotic impacts of climate change. Though shifts in mean temperatures correlate with changes in phenology and distributions, other hidden, or cryptic, changes in temperature, such as temperature variation and extreme temperatures, could pose greater risks to species and ecological communities. Yet, these cryptic temperature changes have received relatively little attention because mean temperatures are readily available and the organism-appropriate temperature response is often elusive. An alternative to using mean temperatures is to view organisms as physiological filters of hourly temperature data. We explored three classes of physiological filters: (1) nonlinear thermal responses using performance curves of insect fitness, (2) cumulative thermal effects using degree-day models for corn emergence, and (3) threshold temperature effects using critical thermal maxima and minima for diverse ectotherms. For all three physiological filters, we determined the change in biological impacts of hourly temperature data from a standard reference period (1961-90) to a current period (2005-10). We then examined how well mean temperature changes during the same time period predicted the biotic impacts we determined from hourly temperature data. In all cases, mean temperature alone provided poor predictions of the impacts of climate change. These results suggest that incorporating high frequency temperature data can provide better predictions for how species will respond to temperature change.

Facing the Heat: Thermoregulation and Behaviour of Lowland Species of a Cold-Dwelling Butterfly Genus, Erebia

Understanding the potential of animals to immediately respond to changing temperatures is imperative for predicting the effects of climate change on biodiversity. Ectothermic animals, such as insects, use behavioural thermoregulation to keep their body temperature within suitable limits. It may be particularly important at warm margins of species occurrence, where populations are sensitive to increasing air temperatures. In the field, we studied thermal requirements and behavioural thermoregulation in low-altitude populations of the Satyrinae butterflies Erebia aethiops, E. euryale and E. medusa. We compared the relationship of individual body temperature with air and microhabitat temperatures for the low-altitude Erebia species to our data on seven mountain species, including a high-altitude population of E. euryale, studied in the Alps. We found that the grassland butterfly E. medusa was well adapted to the warm lowland climate and it was active under the highest air temperatures and kept the highest body temperature of all species. Contrarily, the woodland species, E. aethiops and a low-altitude population of E. euryale, kept lower body temperatures and did not search for warm microclimates as much as other species. Furthermore, temperature-dependence of daily activities also differed between the three low-altitude and the mountain species. Lastly, the different responses to ambient temperature between the low- and high-altitude populations of E. euryale suggest possible local adaptations to different climates. We highlight the importance of habitat heterogeneity for long-term species survival, because it is expected to buffer climate change consequences by providing a variety of microclimates, which can be actively explored by adults. Alpine species can take advantage of warm microclimates, while low-altitude grassland species may retreat to colder microhabitats to escape heat, if needed. However, we conclude that lowland populations of woodland species may be more severely threatened by climate warming because of the unavailability of relatively colder microclimates.

Extensive Acclimation in Ectotherms Conceals Interspecific Variation in Thermal Tolerance Limits

Species’ tolerance limits determine their capacity to tolerate climatic extremes and limit their potential distributions. Interspecific variation in thermal tolerances is often proposed to indicate climatic vulnerability and is, therefore, the subject of many recent meta-studies on differential capacities of species from climatically different habitats to deal with climate change. Most studies on thermal tolerances do not acclimate animals or use inconsistent, and insufficient, acclimation times, limiting our knowledge of the shape, duration and extent of acclimation responses. Consequently patterns in thermal tolerances observed in meta-analyses, based on data from the literature are based on inconsistent, partial acclimation and true trends may be obscured. In this study we describe time-course of complete acclimation of critical thermal minima in the tropical ectotherm Carlia longipes and compare it to the average acclimation response of other reptiles, estimated from published data, to assess how much acclimation time may contribute to observed differences in thermal limits. Carlia longipes decreased their lower critical thermal limits by 2.4°C and completed 95% of acclimation in 17 weeks. Wild populations did not mirror this acclimation process over the winter. Other reptiles appear to decrease cold tolerance more quickly (95% in 7 weeks) and to a greater extent, with an estimated average acclimation response of 6.1°C. However, without data on tolerances after longer acclimation times available, our capacity to estimate final acclimation state is very limited. Based on the subset of data available for meta-analysis, much of the variation in cold tolerance observed in the literature can be attributed to acclimation time. Our results indicate that (i) acclimation responses can be slow and substantial, even in tropical species, and (ii) interspecific differences in acclimation speed and extent may obscure trends assessed in some meta-studies. Cold tolerances of wild animals are representative of cumulative responses to recent environments, while lengthy acclimation is necessary for controlled comparisons of physiological tolerances. Measures of inconsistent, intermediate acclimation states, as reported by many studies, represent neither the realised nor the potential tolerance in that population, are very likely underestimates of species’ physiological capacities and may consequently be of limited value.

Belowground Response to Drought in a Tropical Forest Soil. II. Change in Microbial Function Impacts Carbon Composition

Climate model projections for tropical regions show clear perturbation of precipitation patterns leading to increased frequency and severity of drought in some regions. Previous work has shown declining soil moisture to be a strong driver of changes in microbial trait distribution, however, the feedback of any shift in functional potential on ecosystem properties related to carbon cycling are poorly understood. Here we show that drought-induced changes in microbial functional diversity and activity shape, and are in turn shaped by, the composition of dissolved and soil-associated carbon. We also demonstrate that a shift in microbial functional traits that favor the production of hygroscopic compounds alter the efflux of carbon dioxide following soil rewetting. Under drought the composition of the dissolved organic carbon pool changed in a manner consistent with a microbial metabolic response. We hypothesize that this microbial ecophysiological response to changing soil moisture elevates the intracellular carbon demand stimulating extracellular enzyme production, that prompts the observed decline in more complex carbon compounds (e.g., cellulose and lignin). Furthermore, a metabolic response to drought appeared to condition (biologically and physically) the soil, notably through the production of polysaccharides, particularly in experimental plots that had been pre-exposed to a short-term drought. This hysteretic response, in addition to an observed drought-related decline in phosphorus concentration, may have been responsible for a comparatively modest CO₂ efflux following wet-up in drought plots relative to control plots.

A framework for integrating thermal biology into fragmentation research

Habitat fragmentation changes thermal conditions in remnant patches, and thermal conditions strongly influence organism morphology, distribution, and activity patterns. However, few studies explore temperature as a mechanism driving ecological responses to fragmentation. Here we offer a conceptual framework that integrates thermal biology into fragmentation research to better understand individual, species, community, and ecosystem-level responses to fragmentation. Specifically, the framework addresses how fragmentation changes temperature and how the effects of those temperature changes spread through the ecosystem, from organism response via thermal sensitivity, to changes in species distribution and activity patterns, to shifts in community structure following species' responses, and ultimately to changes in ecosystem functions. We place a strong emphasis on future research directions by outlining "Critical gaps" for each step of the framework. Empirical efforts to apply and test this framework promise new understanding of fragmentation's ecological consequences and new strategies for conservation in an increasingly fragmented and warmer world.

Climate and habitat interact to shape the thermal reaction norms of breeding phenology across lizard populations

Substantial plastic variation in phenology in response to environmental heterogeneity through time in the same population has been uncovered in many species. However, our understanding of differences in reaction norms of phenology among populations from a given species remains limited. As the plasticity of phenological traits is often influenced by local thermal conditions, we expect local temperature to generate variation in the reaction norms between populations. Here, we explored temporal variation in parturition date across 11 populations of the common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) from four mountain chains as a function of air temperatures during mid-gestation. We characterized among-population variation to assess how local weather conditions (mean and variance of ambient temperatures during mid-gestation) and habitat openness (an index of anthropogenic disturbance) influence the thermal reaction norms of the parturition date. Our results provide evidence of interactive effects of anthropogenic disturbance and thermal conditions, with earlier parturition dates in warmer years on average especially in closed habitats. Variation in the reaction norms for parturition date was correlated with mean local thermal conditions at a broad geographical scale. However, populations exposed to variable thermal conditions had flatter thermal reaction norms. Assessing whether environmental heterogeneity drives differentiation among reaction norms is crucial to estimate the capacity of different populations to contend with projected climatic and anthropogenic challenges.

Detecting and Attributing the Effects of Climate Change on the Distributions of Snake Species Over the Past 50 Years

It is unclear whether the distributions of snakes have changed in association with climate change over the past years. We detected the distribution changes of snakes over the past 50 years and determined whether the changes could be attributed to recent climate change in China. Long-term records of the distribution of nine snake species in China, grey relationship analysis, fuzzy sets classification techniques, the consistency index, and attributed methods were used. Over the past 50 years, the distributions of snake species have changed in multiple directions, primarily shifting northwards, and most of the changes were related to the thermal index. Driven by climatic factors over the past 50 years, the distribution boundary and distribution centers of some species changed with the fluctuations. The observed and predicted changes in distribution were highly consistent for some snake species. The changes in the northern limits of distributions of nearly half of the species, as well as the southern and eastern limits, and the distribution centers of some snake species can be attributed to climate change.

Pragmatic perspective on aerobic scope: peaking, plummeting, pejus and apportioning

A major challenge for fish biologists in the 21st century is to predict the biotic effects of global climate change. With marked changes in biogeographic distribution already in evidence for a variety of aquatic animals, mechanistic explanations for these shifts are being sought, ones that then can be used as a foundation for predictive models of future climatic scenarios. One mechanistic explanation for the thermal performance of fishes that has gained some traction is the oxygen and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) hypothesis, which suggests that an aquatic organism's capacity to supply oxygen to tissues becomes limited when body temperature reaches extremes. Central to this hypothesis is an optimum temperature for absolute aerobic scope (AAS, loosely defined as the capacity to deliver oxygen to tissues beyond a basic need). On either side of this peak for AAS are pejus temperatures that define when AAS falls off and thereby reduces an animal's absolute capacity for activity. This article provides a brief perspective on the potential uses and limitations of some of the key physiological indicators related to aerobic scope in fishes. The intent is that practitioners who attempt predictive ecological applications can better recognize limitations and make better use of the OCLTT hypothesis and its underlying physiology.

Multiple Stressors in a Changing World: The Need for an Improved Perspective on Physiological Responses to the Dynamic Marine Environment

Abiotic conditions (e.g., temperature and pH) fluctuate through time in most marine environments, sometimes passing intensity thresholds that induce physiological stress. Depending on habitat and season, the peak intensity of different abiotic stressors can occur in or out of phase with one another. Thus, some organisms are exposed to multiple stressors simultaneously, whereas others experience them sequentially. Understanding these physicochemical dynamics is critical because how organisms respond to multiple stressors depends on the magnitude and relative timing of each stressor. Here, we first discuss broad patterns of covariation between stressors in marine systems at various temporal scales. We then describe how these dynamics will influence physiological responses to multi-stressor exposures. Finally, we summarize how multi-stressor effects are currently assessed. We find that multi-stressor experiments have rarely incorporated naturalistic physicochemical variation into their designs, and emphasize the importance of doing so to make ecologically relevant inferences about physiological responses to global change.

Local extinction risk of three species of lizard from Patagonia as a result of global warming

Recently, Sinervo et al. (2010, Science, 328: 894–899) reported declines of lizard biodiversity due to local warming trends and altered thermal niches. Herein, we applied the Sinervo et al. (2010) physiological model to predict the local extinction risk of three species of lizard from Patagonia. Whereas the previous model used a single equation (for the extinctions of Blue Spiny Lizard (Sceloporus serrifer Cope, 1866) in the Yucatan Peninsula) relating environmental temperatures (Te) to hours of restriction (i.e., the period when lizards are forced into retreat sites because environmental temperatures are too high), we measured habitat-specific equations for the Te values of each species. We analyzed the vulnerability of Darwin’s Ground Gecko (Homonota darwinii Boulenger, 1885), Bariloche Lizard (Liolaemus pictus (Duméril and Bibron, 1837)), and Mountain Slope Lizard (Liolaemus elongatus Koslowsky, 1896) to climate change considering thermal physiological constraints on activity during the reproductive period. While Sinervo et al. (2010) predicted that the Phyllodactylidae family will not suffer from impacts of climate change, our physiological model predicted that 20% of the H. darwinii populations could become extinct by 2080. The physiological model also predicted that 15% of L. pictus populations and 26.5% of L. elongatus populations could become extinct by 2080. The most vulnerable populations are those located near the northern and eastern boundaries of their distributions.

Measuring Selection on Physiology in the Wild and Manipulating Phenotypes (in Terrestrial Nonhuman Vertebrates)

To understand why organisms function the way that they do, we must understand how evolution shapes physiology. This requires knowledge of how selection acts on physiological traits in nature. Selection studies in the wild allow us to determine how variation in physiology causes variation in fitness, revealing how evolution molds physiology over evolutionary time. Manipulating phenotypes experimentally in a selection study shifts the distribution of trait variation in a population to better explore potential constraints and the adaptive value of physiological traits. There is a large database of selection studies in the wild on a variety of traits, but very few of those are physiological traits. Nevertheless, data available so far suggest that physiological traits, including metabolic rate, thermal physiology, whole-organism performance, and hormone levels, are commonly subjected to directional selection in nature, with stabilizing and disruptive selection less common than predicted if physiological traits are optimized to an environment. Selection studies on manipulated phenotypes, including circulating testosterone and glucocorticoid levels, reinforce this notion, but reveal that trade-offs between survival and reproduction or correlational selection can constrain the evolution of physiology. More studies of selection on physiological traits in nature that quantify multiple traits are necessary to better determine the manner in which physiological traits evolve and whether different types of traits (dynamic performance vs. regulatory) evolve differently.

Thermal tolerance and climate warming sensitivity in tropical snails

Tropical ectotherms are predicted to be especially vulnerable to climate change because their thermal tolerance limits generally lie close to current maximum air temperatures. This prediction derives primarily from studies on insects and lizards and remains untested for other taxa with contrasting ecologies. We studied the HCT (heat coma temperatures) and ULT (upper lethal temperatures) of 40 species of tropical eulittoral snails (Littorinidae and Neritidae) inhabiting exposed rocky shores and shaded mangrove forests in Oceania, Africa, Asia and North America. We also estimated extremes in animal body temperature at each site using a simple heat budget model and historical (20 years) air temperature and solar radiation data. Phylogenetic analyses suggest that HCT and ULT exhibit limited adaptive variation across habitats (mangroves vs. rocky shores) or geographic locations despite their contrasting thermal regimes. Instead, the elevated heat tolerance of these species (HCT = 44.5 ± 1.8°C and ULT = 52.1 ± 2.2°C) seems to reflect the extreme temperature variability of intertidal systems. Sensitivity to climate warming, which was quantified as the difference between HCT or ULT and maximum body temperature, differed greatly between snails from sunny (rocky shore; Thermal Safety Margin, TSM = -14.8 ± 3.3°C and -6.2 ± 4.4°C for HCT and ULT, respectively) and shaded (mangrove) habitats (TSM = 5.1 ± 3.6°C and 12.5 ± 3.6°C). Negative TSMs in rocky shore animals suggest that mortality is likely ameliorated during extreme climatic events by behavioral thermoregulation. Given the low variability in heat tolerance across species, habitat and geographic location account for most of the variation in TSM and may adequately predict the vulnerability to climate change. These findings caution against generalizations on the impact of global warming across ectothermic taxa and highlight how the consideration of nonmodel animals, ecological transitions, and behavioral responses may alter predictions of studies that ignore these biological details.

Thermal niche predicts tolerance to habitat conversion in tropical amphibians and reptiles

Habitat conversion is a major driver of the biodiversity crisis, yet why some species undergo local extinction while others thrive under novel conditions remains unclear. We suggest that focusing on species' niches, rather than traits, may provide the predictive power needed to forecast biodiversity change. We first examine two Neotropical frog congeners with drastically different affinities to deforestation and document how thermal niche explains deforestation tolerance. The more deforestation-tolerant species is associated with warmer macroclimates across Costa Rica, and warmer microclimates within landscapes. Further, in laboratory experiments, the more deforestation-tolerant species has critical thermal limits, and a jumping performance optimum, shifted ~2 °C warmer than those of the more forest-affiliated species, corresponding to the ~3 °C difference in daytime maximum temperature that these species experience between habitats. Crucially, neither species strictly specializes on either habitat - instead habitat use is governed by regional environmental temperature. Both species track temperature along an elevational gradient, and shift their habitat use from cooler forest at lower elevations to warmer deforested pastures upslope. To generalize these conclusions, we expand our analysis to the entire mid-elevational herpetological community of southern Costa Rica. We assess the climatological affinities of 33 amphibian and reptile species, showing that across both taxonomic classes, thermal niche predicts presence in deforested habitat as well as or better than many commonly used traits. These data suggest that warm-adapted species carry a significant survival advantage amidst the synergistic impacts of land-use conversion and climate change.

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.

Warmer climates accelerate the pace of life of lizards and this demographic change leads to a strong decrease in population growth rate that may ultimately result in population extinctions.

Ongoing climate change has potentially drastic impacts on biodiversity. Because their body temperature depends on their external environment, ectotherm (“cold-blooded”) species are thought to be more at risk from warming climates than endotherm (“warm-blooded”) species that regulate their temperature internally. Tropical ectotherms should be particularly threatened by climate change, while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. While most of the evidence on the impacts of climate change comes from long-term field studies, experimental evidence of the impact of future climatic conditions is still lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a temperate lizard using a seminatural warming experiment. We find that warmer temperatures led to a highly accelerated life cycle and a decrease in adult survival. As a result, we postulate that populations in such warm climates would be expected to go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental conditions to climatic conditions in European populations of common lizards, we show that many populations should be threatened in the next century, particularly in Southern Europe. Our findings challenge the optimistic view that climate change is only a threat for tropical ectotherms and stress the importance of experimental approaches to predicting the consequences of future warming trends.

From global change to a butterfly flapping: biophysics and behaviour affect tropical climate change impacts

Difficulty in characterizing the relationship between climatic variability and climate change vulnerability arises when we consider the multiple scales at which this variation occurs, be it temporal (from minute to annual) or spatial (from centimetres to kilometres). We studied populations of a single widely distributed butterfly species, Chlosyne lacinia, to examine the physiological, morphological, thermoregulatory and biophysical underpinnings of adaptation to tropical and temperate climates. Microclimatic and morphological data along with a biophysical model documented the importance of solar radiation in predicting butterfly body temperature. We also integrated the biophysics with a physiologically based insect fitness model to quantify the influence of solar radiation, morphology and behaviour on warming impact projections. While warming is projected to have some detrimental impacts on tropical ectotherms, fitness impacts in this study are not as negative as models that assume body and air temperature equivalence would suggest. We additionally show that behavioural thermoregulation can diminish direct warming impacts, though indirect thermoregulatory consequences could further complicate predictions. With these results, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, we show the importance of biophysics and behaviour for studying biodiversity consequences of global climate change, and stress that tropical climate change impacts are likely to be context-dependent.

Use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index as an Assessment Tool for Reptiles and Amphibians: Lessons Learned

Climate change threatens biodiversity globally, yet it can be challenging to predict which species may be most vulnerable. Given the scope of the problem, it is imperative to rapidly assess vulnerability and identify actions to decrease risk. Although a variety of tools have been developed to assess climate change vulnerability, few have been evaluated with regard to their suitability for certain taxonomic groups. Due to their ectothermic physiology, low vagility, and strong association with temporary wetlands, reptiles and amphibians may be particularly vulnerable relative to other groups. Here, we evaluate use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to assess a large suite of herpetofauna from the Sand Hills Ecoregion of the southeastern United States. Although data were frequently lacking for certain variables (e.g., phenological response to climate change, genetic variation), sufficient data were available to evaluate all 117 species. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were highly dependent on size of assessment area and climate scenario selection. In addition, several ecological traits common in, but relatively unique to, herpetofauna are likely to contribute to their vulnerability and need special consideration during the scoring process. Despite some limitations, the NatureServe CCVI was a useful tool for screening large numbers of reptile and amphibian species. We provide general recommendations as to how the CCVI tool's application to herpetofauna can be improved through more specific guidance to the user regarding how to incorporate unique physiological and behavioral traits into scoring existing sensitivity factors and through modification to the assessment tool itself.

Physiological performance of warm-adapted marine ectotherms: Thermal limits of mitochondrial energy transduction efficiency

Thermal regimes in aquatic systems have profound implications for the physiology of ectotherms. In particular, the effect of elevated temperatures on mitochondrial energy transduction in tropical and subtropical teleosts may have profound consequences on organismal performance and population viability. Upper and lower whole-organism critical temperatures for teleosts suggest that subtropical and tropical species are not susceptible to the warming trends associated with climate change, but sub-lethal effects on energy transduction efficiency and population dynamics remain unclear. The goal of the present study was to compare the thermal sensitivity of processes associated with mitochondrial energy transduction in liver mitochondria from the striped mojarra (Eugerres plumieri), the whitemouth croaker (Micropogonias furnieri) and the palometa (Trachinotus goodei), to those of the subtropical pinfish (Lagodon rhomboides) and the blue runner (Caranx crysos). Mitochondrial function was assayed at temperatures ranging from 10 to 40°C and results obtained for both tropical and subtropical species showed a reduction in the energy transduction efficiency of the oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) system in most species studied at temperatures below whole-organism critical temperature thresholds. Our results show a loss of coupling between O2 consumption and ATP production before the onset of the critical thermal maxima, indicating that elevated temperature may severely impact the yield of ATP production per carbon unit oxidized. As warming trends are projected for tropical regions, increasing water temperatures in tropical estuaries and coral reefs could impact long-term growth and reproductive performance in tropical organisms, which are already close to their upper thermal limit.