Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores

Identification of genetic effects underlying type 2 diabetes in South Asian and European populations

South Asians are at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D). We carried out a genome-wide association meta-analysis with South Asian T2D cases (n = 16,677) and controls (n = 33,856), followed by combined analyses with Europeans (neff = 231,420). We identify 21 novel genetic loci for significant association with T2D (P = 4.7 × 10-8 to 5.2 × 10-12), to the best of our knowledge at the point of analysis. The loci are enriched for regulatory features, including DNA methylation and gene expression in relevant tissues, and highlight CHMP4B, PDHB, LRIG1 and other genes linked to adiposity and glucose metabolism. A polygenic risk score based on South Asian-derived summary statistics shows ~4-fold higher risk for T2D between the top and bottom quartile. Our results provide further insights into the genetic mechanisms underlying T2D, and highlight the opportunities for discovery from joint analysis of data from across ancestral populations.

DNA methylation in peripheral tissues and left-handedness

Handedness has low heritability and epigenetic mechanisms have been proposed as an etiological mechanism. To examine this hypothesis, we performed an epigenome-wide association study of left-handedness. In a meta-analysis of 3914 adults of whole-blood DNA methylation, we observed that CpG sites located in proximity of handedness-associated genetic variants were more strongly associated with left-handedness than other CpG sites (P = 0.04), but did not identify any differentially methylated positions. In longitudinal analyses of DNA methylation in peripheral blood and buccal cells from children (N = 1737), we observed moderately stable associations across age (correlation range [0.355-0.578]), but inconsistent across tissues (correlation range [- 0.384 to 0.318]). We conclude that DNA methylation in peripheral tissues captures little of the variance in handedness. Future investigations should consider other more targeted sources of tissue, such as the brain.

The relationship between temperament, polygenic score for intelligence and cognition: A population-based study of middle-aged adults

We investigated whether temperament modifies an association between polygenic intelligence potential and cognitive test performance in midlife. The participants (n = 1647, born between 1962 and 1977) were derived from the Young Finns Study. Temperament was assessed with Temperament and Character Inventory over a 15-year follow-up (1997, 2001, 2007, 2012). Polygenic intelligence potential was assessed with a polygenic score for intelligence. Cognitive performance (visual memory, reaction time, sustained attention, spatial working memory) was assessed with CANTAB in midlife. The PGSI was significantly associated with the overall cognitive performance and performance in visual memory, sustained attention and working memory tests but not reaction time test. Temperament did not correlate with polygenic score for intelligence and did not modify an association between the polygenic score and cognitive performance, either. High persistence was associated with higher visual memory (B = 0.092; FDR-adj. p = 0.007) and low harm avoidance with higher overall cognitive performance, specifically better reaction time (B = -0.102; FDR-adj; p = 0.007). The subscales of harm avoidance had different associations with cognitive performance: higher "anticipatory worry," higher "fatigability," and lower "shyness with strangers" were associated with lower cognitive performance, while the role of "fear of uncertainty" was subtest-related. In conclusion, temperament does not help or hinder one from realizing their genetic potential for intelligence. The overall modest relationships between temperament and cognitive performance advise caution if utilizing temperament-related information e.g. in working-life recruitments. Cognitive abilities may be influenced by temperament variables, such as the drive for achievement and anxiety about test performance, but they involve distinct systems of learning and memory.

Alcohol and nicotine polygenic scores are associated with the development of alcohol and nicotine use problems from adolescence to young adulthood

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Molecular genetic studies of alcohol and nicotine use have identified many genome-wide association study (GWAS) loci. We measured associations between drinking and smoking polygenic scores (PGS) and trajectories of alcohol and nicotine use outcomes from late childhood to early adulthood, substance-specific versus broader-liability PGS effects, and if PGS performance varied for consumption versus problematic substance use.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS AND MEASUREMENTS

We fitted latent growth curve models with structured residuals to scores on measures of alcohol and nicotine use and problems from ages 14 to 34 years. We then estimated associations between the intercept (initial status) and slope (rate of change) parameters and PGSs for drinks per week (DPW), problematic alcohol use (PAU), cigarettes per day (CPD) and ever being a regular smoker (SMK), controlling for sex and genetic principal components. All data were analyzed in the United States. PGSs were calculated for participants of the Minnesota Twin Family Study (n = 3225) using results from the largest GWAS of alcohol and nicotine consumption and problematic use to date.

FINDINGS

Each PGS was associated with trajectories of use for their respective substances [i.e. DPW (βmean  = 0.08; βrange  = 0.02-0.12) and PAU (βmean  = 0.12; βrange  = -0.02 to 0.31) for alcohol; CPD (βmean  = 0.08; βrange  = 0.04-0.14) and SMK (βmean  = 0.18; βrange  = 0.05-0.36) for nicotine]. The PAU and SMK PGSs also exhibited cross-substance associations (i.e. PAU for nicotine-specific intercepts and SMK for alcohol intercepts and slope). All identified SMK PGS effects remained as significant predictors of nicotine and alcohol trajectories (βmean  = 0.15; βrange  = 0.02-0.33), even after adjusting for the respective effects of all other PGSs.

CONCLUSIONS

Substance use-related polygenic scores (PGSs) vary in the strength and generality versus specificity of their associations with substance use and problems over time. The regular smoking PGS appears to be a robust predictor of substance use trajectories and seems to measure both nicotine-specific and non-specific genetic liability for substance use, and potentially externalizing problems in general.

Leveraging fine-mapping and multipopulation training data to improve cross-population polygenic risk scores

Polygenic risk scores suffer reduced accuracy in non-European populations, exacerbating health disparities. We propose PolyPred, a method that improves cross-population polygenic risk scores by combining two predictors: a new predictor that leverages functionally informed fine-mapping to estimate causal effects (instead of tagging effects), addressing linkage disequilibrium differences, and BOLT-LMM, a published predictor. When a large training sample is available in the non-European target population, we propose PolyPred+, which further incorporates the non-European training data. We applied PolyPred to 49 diseases/traits in four UK Biobank populations using UK Biobank British training data, and observed relative improvements versus BOLT-LMM ranging from +7% in south Asians to +32% in Africans, consistent with simulations. We applied PolyPred+ to 23 diseases/traits in UK Biobank east Asians using both UK Biobank British and Biobank Japan training data, and observed improvements of +24% versus BOLT-LMM and +12% versus PolyPred. Summary statistics-based analogs of PolyPred and PolyPred+ attained similar improvements.

Polygenic prediction of educational attainment within and between families from genome-wide association analyses in 3 million individuals

We conduct a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of educational attainment (EA) in a sample of ~3 million individuals and identify 3,952 approximately uncorrelated genome-wide-significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A genome-wide polygenic predictor, or polygenic index (PGI), explains 12-16% of EA variance and contributes to risk prediction for ten diseases. Direct effects (i.e., controlling for parental PGIs) explain roughly half the PGI's magnitude of association with EA and other phenotypes. The correlation between mate-pair PGIs is far too large to be consistent with phenotypic assortment alone, implying additional assortment on PGI-associated factors. In an additional GWAS of dominance deviations from the additive model, we identify no genome-wide-significant SNPs, and a separate X-chromosome additive GWAS identifies 57.

Polygenic scores, diet quality, and type 2 diabetes risk: An observational study among 35,759 adults from 3 US cohorts

BACKGROUND

Both genetic and lifestyle factors contribute to the risk of type 2 diabetes, but the extent to which there is a synergistic effect of the 2 factors is unclear. The aim of this study was to examine the joint associations of genetic risk and diet quality with incident type 2 diabetes.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We analyzed data from 35,759 men and women in the United States participating in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) I (1986 to 2016) and II (1991 to 2017) and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS; 1986 to 2016) with available genetic data and who did not have diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or cancer at baseline. Genetic risk was characterized using both a global polygenic score capturing overall genetic risk and pathway-specific polygenic scores denoting distinct pathophysiological mechanisms. Diet quality was assessed using the Alternate Healthy Eating Index (AHEI). Cox models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for type 2 diabetes after adjusting for potential confounders. With over 902,386 person-years of follow-up, 4,433 participants were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. The relative risk of type 2 diabetes was 1.29 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25, 1.32; P < 0.001) per standard deviation (SD) increase in global polygenic score and 1.13 (1.09, 1.17; P < 0.001) per 10-unit decrease in AHEI. Irrespective of genetic risk, low diet quality, as compared to high diet quality, was associated with approximately 30% increased risk of type 2 diabetes (Pinteraction = 0.69). The joint association of low diet quality and increased genetic risk was similar to the sum of the risk associated with each factor alone (Pinteraction = 0.30). Limitations of this study include the self-report of diet information and possible bias resulting from inclusion of highly educated participants with available genetic data.

CONCLUSIONS

These data provide evidence for the independent associations of genetic risk and diet quality with incident type 2 diabetes and suggest that a healthy diet is associated with lower diabetes risk across all levels of genetic risk.

Effect of a Digitally-Enabled, Preventive Health Program on Blood Pressure in an Adult, Dutch General Population Cohort: An Observational Pilot Study

Worldwide, it is estimated that at least one in four adults suffers from hypertension, and this number is expected to increase as populations grow and age. Blood pressure (BP) possesses substantial heritability, but is also heavily modulated by lifestyle factors. As such, digital, lifestyle-based interventions are a promising alternative to standard care for hypertension prevention and management. In this study, we assessed the prevalence of elevated and high BP in a Dutch general population cohort undergoing a health screening, and observed the effects of a subsequent self-initiated, digitally-enabled lifestyle program on BP regulation. Baseline data were available for 348 participants, of which 56 had partaken in a BP-focused lifestyle program and got remeasured 10 months after the intervention. Participants with elevated SBP and DBP at baseline showed a mean decrease of 7.2 mmHg and 5.4 mmHg, respectively. Additionally, 70% and 72.5% of participants showed an improvement in systolic and diastolic BP at remeasurement. These improvements in BP are superior to those seen in other recent studies. The long-term sustainability and the efficacy of this and similar digital lifestyle interventions will need to be established in additional, larger studies.

Impact of autism genetic risk on brain connectivity: a mechanism for the female protective effect

The biological mechanisms underlying the greater prevalence of autism spectrum disorder in males than females remain poorly understood. One hypothesis posits that this female protective effect arises from genetic load for autism spectrum disorder differentially impacting male and female brains. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the impact of cumulative genetic risk for autism spectrum disorder on functional brain connectivity in a balanced sample of boys and girls with autism spectrum disorder and typically developing boys and girls (127 youth, ages 8-17). Brain connectivity analyses focused on the salience network, a core intrinsic functional connectivity network which has previously been implicated in autism spectrum disorder. The effects of polygenic risk on salience network functional connectivity were significantly modulated by participant sex, with genetic load for autism spectrum disorder influencing functional connectivity in boys with and without autism spectrum disorder but not girls. These findings support the hypothesis that autism spectrum disorder risk genes interact with sex differential processes, thereby contributing to the male bias in autism prevalence and proposing an underlying neurobiological mechanism for the female protective effect.

XPXP: improving polygenic prediction by cross-population and cross-phenotype analysis

MOTIVATION

As increasing sample sizes from genome-wide association studies (GWASs), polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have shown great potential in personalized medicine with disease risk prediction, prevention and treatment. However, the PRS constructed using European samples becomes less accurate when it is applied to individuals from non-European populations. It is an urgent task to improve the accuracy of PRSs in under-represented populations, such as African populations and East Asian populations.

RESULTS

In this article, we propose a cross-population and cross-phenotype (XPXP) method for construction of PRSs in under-represented populations. XPXP can construct accurate PRSs by leveraging biobank-scale datasets in European populations and multiple GWASs of genetically correlated phenotypes. XPXP also allows to incorporate population-specific and phenotype-specific effects, and thus further improves the accuracy of PRS. Through comprehensive simulation studies and real data analysis, we demonstrated that our XPXP outperformed existing PRS approaches. We showed that the height PRSs constructed by XPXP achieved 9% and 18% improvement over the runner-up method in terms of predicted R2 in East Asian and African populations, respectively. We also showed that XPXP substantially improved the stratification ability in identifying individuals at high genetic risk of type 2 diabetes.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The XPXP software and all analysis code are available at github.com/YangLabHKUST/XPXP.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

A genome-wide meta-analysis identifies 50 genetic loci associated with carpal tunnel syndrome

Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) is the most common entrapment neuropathy and has a largely unknown underlying biology. In a genome-wide association study of CTS (48,843 cases and 1,190,837 controls), we found 53 sequence variants at 50 loci associated with the syndrome. The most significant association is with a missense variant (p.Glu366Lys) in SERPINA1 that protects against CTS (P = 2.9 × 10^-24, OR = 0.76). Through various functional analyses, we conclude that at least 22 genes mediate CTS risk and highlight the role of 19 CTS variants in the biology of the extracellular matrix. We show that the genetic component to the risk is higher in bilateral/recurrent/persistent cases than nonrecurrent/nonpersistent cases. Anthropometric traits including height and BMI are genetically correlated with CTS, in addition to early hormonal-replacement therapy, osteoarthritis, and restlessness. Our findings suggest that the components of the extracellular matrix play a key role in the pathogenesis of CTS.

Integrative Pathway Analysis of SNP and Metabolite Data Using a Hierarchical Structural Component Model

Integrative multi-omics analysis has become a useful tool to understand molecular mechanisms and drug discovery for treatment. Especially, the couplings of genetics to metabolomics have been performed to identify the associations between SNP and metabolite. However, while the importance of integrative pathway analysis is increasing, there are few approaches to utilize pathway information to analyze phenotypes using SNP and metabolite. We propose an integrative pathway analysis of SNP and metabolite data using a hierarchical structural component model considering the structural relationships of SNPs, metabolites, pathways, and phenotypes. The proposed method utilizes genome-wide association studies on metabolites and constructs the genetic risk scores for metabolites referred to as genetic metabolomic scores. It is based on the hierarchical model using the genetic metabolomic scores and pathways. Furthermore, this method adopts a ridge penalty to consider the correlations between genetic metabolomic scores and between pathways. We apply our method to the SNP and metabolite data from the Korean population to identify pathways associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Through this application, we identified well-known pathways associated with T2D, demonstrating that this method adds biological insights into disease-related pathways using genetic predispositions of metabolites.

Properties of Two-Locus Genealogies and Linkage Disequilibrium in Temporally Structured Samples

Archaeogenetics has been revolutionary, revealing insights into demographic history and recent positive selection. However, most studies to date have ignored the non-random association of genetic variants at different loci (i.e., linkage disequilibrium, LD). This may be in part because basic properties of LD in samples from different times are still not well understood. Here, we derive several results for summary statistics of haplotypic variation under a model with time-stratified sampling: 1) The correlation between the number of pairwise differences observed between time-staggered samples (πΔt) in models with and without strict population continuity; 2) The product of the LD coefficient, D, between ancient and modern samples, which is a measure of haplotypic similarity between modern and ancient samples; and 3) The expected switch rate in the Li and Stephens haplotype copying model. The latter has implications for genotype imputation and phasing in ancient samples with modern reference panels. Overall, these results provide a characterization of how haplotype patterns are affected by sample age, recombination rates, and population sizes. We expect these results will help guide the interpretation and analysis of haplotype data from ancient and modern samples.

Phenome-Wide Association Study of Polygenic Risk Score for Alzheimer's Disease in Electronic Health Records

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia and a growing public health burden in the United States. Significant progress has been made in identifying genetic risk for AD, but limited studies have investigated how AD genetic risk may be associated with other disease conditions in an unbiased fashion. In this study, we conducted a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) by genetic ancestry groups within a large academic health system using the polygenic risk score (PRS) for AD. PRS was calculated using LDpred2 with genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics. Phenotypes were extracted from electronic health record (EHR) diagnosis codes and mapped to more clinically meaningful phecodes. Logistic regression with Firth's bias correction was used for PRS phenotype analyses. Mendelian randomization was used to examine causality in significant PheWAS associations. Our results showed a strong association between AD PRS and AD phenotype in European ancestry (OR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.13, 1.40). Among a total of 1,515 PheWAS tests within the European sample, we observed strong associations of AD PRS with AD and related phenotypes, which include mild cognitive impairment (MCI), memory loss, and dementias. We observed a phenome-wide significant association between AD PRS and gouty arthropathy (OR = 0.90, adjusted p = 0.05). Further causal inference tests with Mendelian randomization showed that gout was not causally associated with AD. We concluded that genetic predisposition of AD was negatively associated with gout, but gout was not a causal risk factor for AD. Our study evaluated AD PRS in a real-world EHR setting and provided evidence that AD PRS may help to identify individuals who are genetically at risk of AD and other related phenotypes. We identified non-neurodegenerative diseases associated with AD PRS, which is essential to understand the genetic architecture of AD and potential side effects of drugs targeting genetic risk factors of AD. Together, these findings expand our understanding of AD genetic and clinical risk factors, which provide a framework for continued research in aging with the growing number of real-world EHR linked with genetic data.

Genome-wide analysis provides genetic evidence that ACE2 influences COVID-19 risk and yields risk scores associated with severe disease

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) enters human host cells via angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Here, through a genome-wide association study, we identify a variant (rs190509934, minor allele frequency 0.2–2%) that downregulates ACE2 expression by 37% (P = 2.7 × 10⁻⁸) and reduces the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection by 40% (odds ratio = 0.60, P = 4.5 × 10⁻¹³), providing human genetic evidence that ACE2 expression levels influence COVID-19 risk. We also replicate the associations of six previously reported risk variants, of which four were further associated with worse outcomes in individuals infected with the virus (in/near LZTFL1, MHC, DPP9 and IFNAR2). Lastly, we show that common variants define a risk score that is strongly associated with severe disease among cases and modestly improves the prediction of disease severity relative to demographic and clinical factors alone.

Genome-wide meta-analysis of SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and severity phenotypes in up to 756,646 samples identifies a rare protective variant proximal to ACE2. A 6-SNP genetic risk score provides additional predictive power when added to known risk factors.

Polygenic risk modeling for prediction of epithelial ovarian cancer risk

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) have the potential to improve risk stratification. Joint estimation of Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) effects in models could improve predictive performance over standard approaches of PRS construction. Here, we implemented computationally efficient, penalized, logistic regression models (lasso, elastic net, stepwise) to individual level genotype data and a Bayesian framework with continuous shrinkage, "select and shrink for summary statistics" (S4), to summary level data for epithelial non-mucinous ovarian cancer risk prediction. We developed the models in a dataset consisting of 23,564 non-mucinous EOC cases and 40,138 controls participating in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC) and validated the best models in three populations of different ancestries: prospective data from 198,101 women of European ancestries; 7,669 women of East Asian ancestries; 1,072 women of African ancestries, and in 18,915 BRCA1 and 12,337 BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers of European ancestries. In the external validation data, the model with the strongest association for non-mucinous EOC risk derived from the OCAC model development data was the S4 model (27,240 SNPs) with odds ratios (OR) of 1.38 (95% CI: 1.28-1.48, AUC: 0.588) per unit standard deviation, in women of European ancestries; 1.14 (95% CI: 1.08-1.19, AUC: 0.538) in women of East Asian ancestries; 1.38 (95% CI: 1.21-1.58, AUC: 0.593) in women of African ancestries; hazard ratios of 1.36 (95% CI: 1.29-1.43, AUC: 0.592) in BRCA1 pathogenic variant carriers and 1.49 (95% CI: 1.35-1.64, AUC: 0.624) in BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers. Incorporation of the S4 PRS in risk prediction models for ovarian cancer may have clinical utility in ovarian cancer prevention programs.

Incorporating Polygenic Risk Scores and Nongenetic Risk Factors for Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Among Asian Women

IMPORTANCE

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have shown promise in breast cancer risk prediction; however, limited studies have been conducted among Asian women.

OBJECTIVE

To develop breast cancer risk prediction models for Asian women incorporating PRSs and nongenetic risk factors.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This diagnostic study included women of Asian ancestry from the Asia Breast Cancer Consortium. PRSs were developed using data from genomewide association studies (GWASs) of breast cancer conducted among 123 041 women with Asian ancestry (including 18 650 women with breast cancer) using 3 approaches: (1) reported PRS for women with European ancestry; (2) breast cancer-associated single-nucleotide variations (SNVs) identified by fine-mapping of GWAS-identified risk loci; and (3) genomewide risk prediction algorithms. A nongenetic risk score (NGRS) was built, including 7 well-established nongenetic risk factors, using data of 416 case participants and 1558 control participants from a prospective cohort study. PRSs were initially validated in an independent data set including 1426 case participants and 1323 control participants and further evaluated, along with the NGRS, in the second data set including 368 case participants and 736 control participants nested within a prospective cohort study.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Logistic regression was used to examine associations of risk scores with breast cancer risk to estimate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

A total of 126 894 women of Asian ancestry were included; 20 444 (16.1%) had breast cancer. The mean (SD) age ranged from 49.1 (10.8) to 54.4 (10.4) years for case participants and 50.6 (9.5) to 54.0 (7.4) years for control participants among studies that provided demographic characteristics. In the prospective cohort, a PRS with 111 SNVs developed using the fine-mapping approach (PRS111) showed a prediction performance comparable with a genomewide PRS that included more than 855 000 SNVs. The OR per SD increase of PRS111 score was 1.67 (95% CI, 1.46-1.92), with an AUC of 0.639 (95% CI, 0.604-0.674). The NGRS had a limited predictive ability (AUC, 0.565; 95% CI, 0.529-0.601). Compared with the average risk group (40th-60th percentile), women in the top 5% of PRS111 and NGRS were at a 3.84-fold (95% CI, 2.30-6.46) and 2.10-fold (95% CI, 1.22-3.62) higher risk of breast cancer, respectively. The prediction model including both PRS111 and NGRS achieved the highest prediction accuracy (AUC, 0.648; 95% CI, 0.613-0.682).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, PRSs derived using breast cancer risk-associated SNVs had similar predictive performance in Asian and European women. Including nongenetic risk factors in models further improved prediction accuracy. These findings support the utility of these models in developing personalized screening and prevention strategies.

Familial risk for depressive and anxiety disorders: associations with genetic, clinical, and psychosocial vulnerabilities

BACKGROUND

In research and clinical practice, familial risk for depression and anxiety is often constructed as a simple Yes/No dichotomous family history (FH) indicator. However, this measure may not fully capture the liability to these conditions. This study investigated whether a continuous familial loading score (FLS), incorporating family- and disorder-specific characteristics (e.g. family size, prevalence of depression/anxiety), (i) is associated with a polygenic risk score (PRS) for major depression and with clinical/psychosocial vulnerabilities and (ii) still captures variation in clinical/psychosocial vulnerabilities after information on FH has been taken into account.

METHODS

Data came from 1425 participants with lifetime depression and/or anxiety from the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety. The Family Tree Inventory was used to determine FLS/FH indicators for depression and/or anxiety.

RESULTS

Persons with higher FLS had higher PRS for major depression, more severe depression and anxiety symptoms, higher disease burden, younger age of onset, and more neuroticism, rumination, and childhood trauma. Among these variables, FH was not associated with PRS, severity of symptoms, and neuroticism. After regression out the effect of FH from the FLS, the resulting residualized measure of FLS was still associated with severity of symptoms of depression and anxiety, rumination, and childhood trauma.

CONCLUSIONS

Familial risk for depression and anxiety deserves clinical attention due to its associated genetic vulnerability and more unfavorable disease profile, and seems to be better captured by a continuous score that incorporates family- and disorder-specific characteristics than by a dichotomous FH measure.

Performance of polygenic risk scores for cancer prediction in a racially diverse academic biobank

PURPOSE

Genome-wide association studies have identified hundreds of single nucleotide variations (formerly single nucleotide polymorphisms) associated with several cancers, but the predictive ability of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) is unclear, especially among non-Whites.

METHODS

PRSs were derived from genome-wide significant single-nucleotide variations for 15 cancers in 20,079 individuals in an academic biobank. We evaluated the improvement in discriminatory accuracy by including cancer-specific PRS in patients of genetically-determined African and European ancestry.

RESULTS

Among the individuals of European genetic ancestry, PRSs for breast, colon, melanoma, and prostate were significantly associated with their respective cancers. Among the individuals of African genetic ancestry, PRSs for breast, colon, prostate, and thyroid were significantly associated with their respective cancers. The area under the curve of the model consisting of age, sex, and principal components was 0.621 to 0.710, and it increased by 1% to 4% with the inclusion of PRS in individuals of European genetic ancestry. In individuals of African genetic ancestry, area under the curve was overall higher in the model without the PRS (0.723-0.810) but increased by <1% with the inclusion of PRS for most cancers.

CONCLUSION

PRS moderately increased the ability to discriminate the cancer status in individuals of European but not African ancestry. Further large-scale studies are needed to identify ancestry-specific genetic factors in non-White populations to incorporate PRS into cancer risk assessment.

Significant sparse polygenic risk scores across 813 traits in UK Biobank

We present a systematic assessment of polygenic risk score (PRS) prediction across more than 1,500 traits using genetic and phenotype data in the UK Biobank. We report 813 sparse PRS models with significant (p < 2.5 x 10-5) incremental predictive performance when compared against the covariate-only model that considers age, sex, types of genotyping arrays, and the principal component loadings of genotypes. We report a significant correlation between the number of genetic variants selected in the sparse PRS model and the incremental predictive performance (Spearman's ⍴ = 0.61, p = 2.2 x 10-59 for quantitative traits, ⍴ = 0.21, p = 9.6 x 10-4 for binary traits). The sparse PRS model trained on European individuals showed limited transferability when evaluated on non-European individuals in the UK Biobank. We provide the PRS model weights on the Global Biobank Engine (https://biobankengine.stanford.edu/prs).

Expanding the environmental scope: an environment-wide association study for mental well-being

BACKGROUND

Identifying modifiable factors associated with well-being is of increased interest for public policy guidance. Developments in record linkage make it possible to identify what contributes to well-being from a myriad of factors. To this end, we link two large-scale data resources; the Geoscience and Health Cohort Consortium, a collection of geo-data, and the Netherlands Twin Register, which holds population-based well-being data.

OBJECTIVE

We perform an Environment-Wide Association Study (EnWAS), where we examine 139 neighbourhood-level environmental exposures in relation to well-being.

METHODS

First, we performed a generalized estimation equation regression (N = 11,975) to test for the effects of environmental exposures on well-being. Second, to account for multicollinearity amongst exposures, we performed principal component regression. Finally, using a genetically informative design, we examined whether environmental exposure is driven by genetic predisposition for well-being.

RESULTS

We identified 21 environmental factors that were associated with well-being in the domains: housing stock, income, core neighbourhood characteristics, livability, and socioeconomic status. Of these associations, socioeconomic status and safety are indicated as the most important factors to explain differences in well-being. No evidence of gene-environment correlation was found.

SIGNIFICANCE

These observed associations, especially neighbourhood safety, could be informative for policy makers and provide public policy guidance to improve well-being. Our results show that linking databases is a fruitful exercise to identify determinants of mental health that would remain unknown by a more unilateral approach.

Predicting disordered gambling across adolescence and young adulthood from polygenic contributions to Big 5 personality traits in a UK birth cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Previous research has demonstrated phenotypical associations between disordered gambling (DG) and Big 5 personality traits, and a twin study suggested that shared genetic influences accounted for a substantial portion of this relation. The present study examined associations between DG and polygenic scores (PSs) for Big 5 traits to measure the shared genetic underpinnings of Big 5 personality traits and DG.

DESIGN

Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models estimated associations between Big 5 PSs and past-year and life-time assessments of DG in a longitudinally assessed population-based birth cohort.

SETTING

United Kingdom.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 4729 unrelated children of European ancestry from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) with both phenotypical and genetic data.

MEASUREMENTS

Phenotypical outcomes included past-year assessment of DG using the problem gambling severity index (PGSI) and life-time assessment of DSM-IV pathological gambling symptoms (DPG) across the ages of 17, 20 and 24 years. Polygenic scores were derived for the Big 5 personality traits of agreeableness, extraversion, conscientiousness, openness and neuroticism using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS).

FINDINGS

PSs for agreeableness [β= - 0.25, standard error (SE) = 0.054, P = 3.031e-6, ΔR2  = 0.008] and neuroticism (β=0.14, SE = 0.046, P = 0.0017, ΔR2  = 0.002) significantly predicted PGSI scores over and above included covariates (i.e. sex and first five ancestral principal components). PSs for agreeableness (β= - 0.20, SE = 0.056, P = 0.00036, ΔR2  = 0.003) and neuroticism, when interactions with age were taken into account (β = 0.29, SE = 0.090, P = 0.002, ΔR2  = 0.004), also predicted DPG scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Polygenic contributions to low agreeableness and high neuroticism appear to predict two measures of disordered gambling (problem gambling severity index and life-time assessment of DSM-IV pathological gambling symptoms). Polygenic scores for neuroticism interact with age to suggest that the positive association becomes stronger from adolescence through young adulthood.

Multiparametric platform for profiling lipid trafficking in human leukocytes

Systematic insight into cellular dysfunction can improve understanding of disease etiology, risk assessment, and patient stratification. We present a multiparametric high-content imaging platform enabling quantification of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) uptake and lipid storage in cytoplasmic droplets of primary leukocyte subpopulations. We validate this platform with samples from 65 individuals with variable blood LDL-cholesterol (LDL-c) levels, including familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) and non-FH subjects. We integrate lipid storage data into another readout parameter, lipid mobilization, measuring the efficiency with which cells deplete lipid reservoirs. Lipid mobilization correlates positively with LDL uptake and negatively with hypercholesterolemia and age, improving differentiation of individuals with normal and elevated LDL-c. Moreover, combination of cell-based readouts with a polygenic risk score for LDL-c explains hypercholesterolemia better than the genetic risk score alone. This platform provides functional insights into cellular lipid trafficking and has broad possible applications in dissecting the cellular basis of metabolic disorders.

Predicting Multiple Sclerosis: Challenges and Opportunities

Determining effective means of preventing Multiple Sclerosis (MS) relies on testing preventive strategies in trial populations. However, because of the low incidence of MS, demonstrating that a preventive measure has benefit requires either very large trial populations or an enriched population with a higher disease incidence. Risk scores which incorporate genetic and environmental data could be used, in principle, to identify high-risk individuals for enrolment in preventive trials. Here we discuss the concepts of developing predictive scores for identifying individuals at high risk of MS. We discuss the empirical efforts to do so using real cohorts, and some of the challenges-both theoretical and practical-limiting this work. We argue that such scores could offer a means of risk stratification for preventive trial design, but are unlikely to ever constitute a clinically-helpful approach to predicting MS for an individual.

High polygenic predisposition for ADHD and a greater risk of all-cause mortality: a large population-based longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a highly heritable, neurodevelopmental disorder known to associate with more than double the risk of death compared with people without ADHD. Because most research on ADHD has focused on children and adolescents, among whom death rates are relatively low, the impact of a high polygenic predisposition to ADHD on accelerating mortality risk in older adults is unknown. Thus, the aim of the study was to investigate if a high polygenetic predisposition to ADHD exacerbates the risk of all-cause mortality in older adults from the general population in the UK.

METHODS

Utilising data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, which is an ongoing multidisciplinary study of the English population aged ≥ 50 years, polygenetic scores for ADHD were calculated using summary statistics for (1) ADHD (PGS-ADHD_single) and (2) chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and younger age of giving first birth, which were shown to have a strong genetic correlation with ADHD using the multi-trait analysis of genome-wide association summary statistics; this polygenic score was referred to as PGS-ADHD_multi-trait. All-cause mortality was ascertained from the National Health Service central register that captures all deaths occurring in the UK.

RESULTS

The sample comprised 7133 participants with a mean age of 64.7 years (SD = 9.5, range = 50-101); of these, 1778 (24.9%) died during a period of 11.2 years. PGS-ADHD_single was associated with a greater risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.02-1.12, p = 0.010); further analyses showed this relationship was significant in men (HR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.00-1.14, p = 0.043). Risk of all-cause mortality increased by an approximate 11% for one standard deviation increase in PGS-ADHD_multi-trait (HR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.06-1.16, p < 0.001). When the model was run separately for men and women, the association between PGS-ADHD_multi-trait and an increased risk of all-cause mortality was significant in men (HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.03-1.18, p = 0.003) and women (HR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.04-1.19, p = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

A high polygenetic predisposition to ADHD is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in older adults. This risk is better captured when incorporating genetic information from correlated traits.

Polygenic Score for Physical Activity Is Associated with Multiple Common Diseases

INTRODUCTION

Genetic pleiotropy, in which the same genes affect two or more traits, may partially explain the frequently observed associations between high physical activity (PA) and later reduced morbidity or mortality. This study investigated associations between PA polygenic risk scores (PRS) and cardiometabolic diseases among the Finnish population.

METHODS

PRS for device-measured overall PA were adapted to a FinnGen study cohort of 218,792 individuals with genomewide genotyping and extensive digital longitudinal health register data. Associations between PA PRS and body mass index, diseases, and mortality were analyzed with linear and logistic regression models.

RESULTS

A high PA PRS predicted a lower body mass index (β = -0.025 kg·m-2 per one SD change in PA PRS, SE = 0.013, P = 1.87 × 10-80). The PA PRS also predicted a lower risk for diseases that typically develop later in life or not at all among highly active individuals. A lower disease risk was systematically observed for cardiovascular diseases (odds ratio [OR] per 1 SD change in PA PRS = 0.95, P = 9.5 × 10-19) and, for example, hypertension [OR = 0.93, P = 2.7 × 10-44), type 2 diabetes (OR = 0.91, P = 4.1 × 10-42), and coronary heart disease (OR = 0.95, P = 1.2 × 10-9). Participants with high PA PRS had also lower mortality risk (OR = 0.97, P = 0.0003).

CONCLUSIONS

Genetically less active persons are at a higher risk of developing cardiometabolic diseases, which may partly explain the previously observed associations between low PA and higher disease and mortality risk. The same inherited physical fitness and metabolism-related mechanisms may be associated both with PA levels and with cardiometabolic disease risk.

Exploring the causal effect of maternal pregnancy adiposity on offspring adiposity: Mendelian randomisation using polygenic risk scores

BACKGROUND

Greater maternal adiposity before or during pregnancy is associated with greater offspring adiposity throughout childhood, but the extent to which this is due to causal intrauterine or periconceptional mechanisms remains unclear. Here, we use Mendelian randomisation (MR) with polygenic risk scores (PRS) to investigate whether associations between maternal pre-/early pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and offspring adiposity from birth to adolescence are causal.

METHODS

We undertook confounder adjusted multivariable (MV) regression and MR using mother-offspring pairs from two UK cohorts: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and Born in Bradford (BiB). In ALSPAC and BiB, the outcomes were birthweight (BW; N = 9339) and BMI at age 1 and 4 years (N = 8659 to 7575). In ALSPAC only we investigated BMI at 10 and 15 years (N = 4476 to 4112) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) determined fat mass index (FMI) from age 10-18 years (N = 2659 to 3855). We compared MR results from several PRS, calculated from maternal non-transmitted alleles at between 29 and 80,939 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs).

RESULTS

MV and MR consistently showed a positive association between maternal BMI and BW, supporting a moderate causal effect. For adiposity at most older ages, although MV estimates indicated a strong positive association, MR estimates did not support a causal effect. For the PRS with few SNPs, MR estimates were statistically consistent with the null, but had wide confidence intervals so were often also statistically consistent with the MV estimates. In contrast, the largest PRS yielded MR estimates with narrower confidence intervals, providing strong evidence that the true causal effect on adolescent adiposity is smaller than the MV estimates (Pdifference = 0.001 for 15-year BMI). This suggests that the MV estimates are affected by residual confounding, therefore do not provide an accurate indication of the causal effect size.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that higher maternal pre-/early-pregnancy BMI is not a key driver of higher adiposity in the next generation. Thus, they support interventions that target the whole population for reducing overweight and obesity, rather than a specific focus on women of reproductive age.

American Heart Association's Life's Simple 7: Lifestyle Recommendations, Polygenic Risk, and Lifetime Risk of Coronary Heart Disease

Background: Understanding the effect of lifestyle and genetic risk on the lifetime risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) is important to improving public health initiatives. Our objective was to quantify remaining lifetime risk and years free of CHD according to polygenic risk and the American Heart Association's Life's Simple 7 (LS7) guidelines in a population-based cohort study. Methods: Our analysis included data from participants of the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study: 8372 White and 2314 Black participants; 45 years of age and older; and free of CHD at baseline examination. A polygenic risk score (PRS) comprised more than 6 million genetic variants was categorized into low (<20th percentile), intermediate, and high (>80th percentile). An overall LS7 score was calculated at baseline and categorized into "poor," "intermediate," and "ideal" cardiovascular health. Lifetime risk and CHD-free years were computed according to polygenic risk and LS7 categories. Results: The overall remaining lifetime risk was 27%, ranging from 16.6% in individuals with an ideal LS7 score to 43.1% for individuals with a poor LS7 score. The association of PRS with lifetime risk differed according to ancestry. In White participants, remaining lifetime risk ranged from 19.8% to 39.3% according to increasing PRS categories. Individuals with a high PRS and poor LS7 had a remaining lifetime risk of 67.1% and 15.9 fewer CHD-free years than did those with intermediate polygenic risk and LS7 scores. In the high-PRS group, ideal LS7 was associated with 20.2 more CHD-free years compared with poor LS7. In Black participants, remaining lifetime risk ranged from 19.1% to 28.6% according to increasing PRS category. Similar lifetime risk estimates were observed for individuals of poor LS7 regardless of PRS category. In the high-PRS group, an ideal LS7 score was associated with only 4.5 more CHD-free years compared with a poor LS7 score. Conclusions: Ideal adherence to LS7 recommendations was associated with lower lifetime risk of CHD for all individuals, especially in those with high genetic susceptibility. In Black participants, adherence to LS7 guidelines contributed to lifetime risk of CHD more so than current PRSs. Improved PRSs are needed to properly evaluate genetic susceptibility for CHD in diverse populations.

Interplay between polygenic propensity for ageing-related traits and the consumption of fruits and vegetables on future dementia diagnosis

BACKGROUND

Understanding how polygenic scores for ageing-related traits interact with diet in determining a future dementia including Alzheimer's diagnosis (AD) would increase our understanding of mechanisms underlying dementia onset.

METHODS

Using 6784 population representative adults aged ≥50 years from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we employed accelerated failure time survival model to investigate interactions between polygenic scores for AD (AD-PGS), schizophrenia (SZ-PGS) and general cognition (GC-PGS) and the baseline daily fruit and vegetable intake in association with dementia diagnosis during a 10-year follow-up. The baseline sample was obtained from waves 3-4 (2006-2009); follow-up data came from wave 5 (2010-2011) to wave 8 (2016-2017).

RESULTS

Consuming < 5 portions of fruit and vegetables a day was associated with 33-37% greater risk for dementia in the following 10 years depending on an individual polygenic propensity. One standard deviation (1-SD) increase in AD-PGS was associated with 24% higher risk of dementia and 47% higher risk for AD diagnosis. 1-SD increase in SZ-PGS was associated with an increased risk of AD diagnosis by 66%(95%CI = 1.05-2.64) in participants who consumed < 5 portions of fruit or vegetables. There was a significant additive interaction between GC-PGS and < 5 portions of the baseline daily intake of fruit and vegetables in association with AD diagnosis during the 10-year follow-up (RERI = 0.70, 95%CI = 0.09-4.82; AP = 0.36, 95%CI = 0.17-0.66).

CONCLUSION

A diet rich in fruit and vegetables is an important factor influencing the subsequent risk of dementia in the 10 years follow-up, especially in the context of polygenetic predisposition to AD, schizophrenia, and general cognition.

Computational Models for Clinical Applications in Personalized Medicine—Guidelines and Recommendations for Data Integration and Model Validation

The future development of personalized medicine depends on a vast exchange of data from different sources, as well as harmonized integrative analysis of large-scale clinical health and sample data. Computational-modelling approaches play a key role in the analysis of the underlying molecular processes and pathways that characterize human biology, but they also lead to a more profound understanding of the mechanisms and factors that drive diseases; hence, they allow personalized treatment strategies that are guided by central clinical questions. However, despite the growing popularity of computational-modelling approaches in different stakeholder communities, there are still many hurdles to overcome for their clinical routine implementation in the future. Especially the integration of heterogeneous data from multiple sources and types are challenging tasks that require clear guidelines that also have to comply with high ethical and legal standards. Here, we discuss the most relevant computational models for personalized medicine in detail that can be considered as best-practice guidelines for application in clinical care. We define specific challenges and provide applicable guidelines and recommendations for study design, data acquisition, and operation as well as for model validation and clinical translation and other research areas.

Common Genetic Variants Contribute to Risk of Transposition of the Great Arteries

RATIONALE

Dextro-transposition of the great arteries (D-TGA) is a severe congenital heart defect which affects approximately 1 in 4,000 live births. While there are several reports of D-TGA patients with rare variants in individual genes, the majority of D-TGA cases remain genetically elusive. Familial recurrence patterns and the observation that most cases with D-TGA are sporadic suggest a polygenic inheritance for the disorder, yet this remains unexplored.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to study the role of common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in risk for D-TGA.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We conducted a genome-wide association study in an international set of 1,237 patients with D-TGA and identified a genome-wide significant susceptibility locus on chromosome 3p14.3, which was subsequently replicated in an independent case-control set (rs56219800, meta-analysis P=8.6x10-10, OR=0.69 per C allele). SNP-based heritability analysis showed that 25% of variance in susceptibility to D-TGA may be explained by common variants. A genome-wide polygenic risk score derived from the discovery set was significantly associated to D-TGA in the replication set (P=4x10-5). The genome-wide significant locus (3p14.3) co-localizes with a putative regulatory element that interacts with the promoter of WNT5A, which encodes the Wnt Family Member 5A protein known for its role in cardiac development in mice. We show that this element drives reporter gene activity in the developing heart of mice and zebrafish and is bound by the developmental transcription factor TBX20. We further demonstrate that TBX20 attenuates Wnt5a expression levels in the developing mouse heart.

CONCLUSIONS

This work provides support for a polygenic architecture in D-TGA and identifies a susceptibility locus on chromosome 3p14.3 near WNT5A. Genomic and functional data support a causal role of WNT5A at the locus.

Genome-wide association study of febrile seizures implicates fever response and neuronal excitability genes

Febrile seizures represent the most common type of pathological brain activity in young children and are influenced by genetic, environmental and developmental factors. In a minority of cases, febrile seizures precede later development of epilepsy.

We conducted a genome-wide association study of febrile seizures in 7635 cases and 83 966 controls identifying and replicating seven new loci, all with P < 5 × 10⁻¹⁰.

Variants at two loci were functionally related to altered expression of the fever response genes PTGER3 and IL10, and four other loci harboured genes (BSN, ERC2, GABRG2, HERC1) influencing neuronal excitability by regulating neurotransmitter release and binding, vesicular transport or membrane trafficking at the synapse. Four previously reported loci (SCN1A, SCN2A, ANO3 and 12q21.33) were all confirmed. Collectively, the seven novel and four previously reported loci explained 2.8% of the variance in liability to febrile seizures, and the single nucleotide polymorphism heritability based on all common autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms was 10.8%. GABRG2, SCN1A and SCN2A are well-established epilepsy genes and, overall, we found positive genetic correlations with epilepsies (r_g = 0.39, P = 1.68 × 10⁻⁴). Further, we found that higher polygenic risk scores for febrile seizures were associated with epilepsy and with history of hospital admission for febrile seizures. Finally, we found that polygenic risk of febrile seizures was lower in febrile seizure patients with neuropsychiatric disease compared to febrile seizure patients in a general population sample.

In conclusion, this largest genetic investigation of febrile seizures to date implicates central fever response genes as well as genes affecting neuronal excitability, including several known epilepsy genes. Further functional and genetic studies based on these findings will provide important insights into the complex pathophysiological processes of seizures with and without fever.

Machine learning optimized polygenic scores for blood cell traits identify sex-specific trajectories and genetic correlations with disease

Genetic association studies for blood cell traits, which are key indicators of health and immune function, have identified several hundred associations and defined a complex polygenic architecture. Polygenic scores (PGSs) for blood cell traits have potential clinical utility in disease risk prediction and prevention, but designing PGS remains challenging and the optimal methods are unclear. To address this, we evaluated the relative performance of 6 methods to develop PGS for 26 blood cell traits, including a standard method of pruning and thresholding (P + T) and 5 learning methods: LDpred2, elastic net (EN), Bayesian ridge (BR), multilayer perceptron (MLP) and convolutional neural network (CNN). We evaluated these optimized PGSs on blood cell trait data from UK Biobank and INTERVAL. We find that PGSs designed using common machine learning methods EN and BR show improved prediction of blood cell traits and consistently outperform other methods. Our analyses suggest EN/BR as the top choices for PGS construction, showing improved performance for 25 blood cell traits in the external validation, with correlations with the directly measured traits increasing by 10%-23%. Ten PGSs showed significant statistical interaction with sex, and sex-specific PGS stratification showed that all of them had substantial variation in the trajectories of blood cell traits with age. Genetic correlations between the PGSs for blood cell traits and common human diseases identified well-known as well as new associations. We develop machine learning-optimized PGS for blood cell traits, demonstrate their relationships with sex, age, and disease, and make these publicly available as a resource.

Polygenic risk prediction based on singular value decomposition with applications to alcohol use disorder

BACKGROUND/AIM

The polygenic risk score (PRS) shows promise as a potentially effective approach to summarize genetic risk for complex diseases such as alcohol use disorder that is influenced by a combination of multiple variants, each of which has a very small effect. Yet, conventional PRS methods tend to over-adjust confounding factors in the discovery sample and thus have low power to predict the phenotype in the target sample. This study aims to address this important methodological issue.

METHODS

This study proposed a new method to construct PRS by (1) approximating the polygenic model using a few principal components selected based on eigen-correlation in the discovery data; and (2) conducting principal component projection on the target data. Secondary data analysis was conducted on two large scale databases: the Study of Addiction: Genetics and Environment (SAGE; discovery data) and the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health; target data) to compare performance of the conventional and proposed methods.

RESULT AND CONCLUSION

The results show that the proposed method has higher prediction power and can handle participants from different ancestry backgrounds. We also provide practical recommendations for setting the linkage disequilibrium (LD) and p value thresholds.

A data-adaptive Bayesian regression approach for polygenic risk prediction

MOTIVATION

Polygenic risk score (PRS) has been widely exploited for genetic risk prediction due to its accuracy and conceptual simplicity. We introduce a unified Bayesian regression framework, NeuPred, for PRS construction, which accommodates varying genetic architectures and improves overall prediction accuracy for complex diseases by allowing for a wide class of prior choices. To take full advantage of the framework, we propose a summary-statistics-based cross-validation strategy to automatically select suitable chromosome-level priors, which demonstrates a striking variability of the prior preference of each chromosome, for the same complex disease, and further significantly improves the prediction accuracy.

RESULTS

Simulation studies and real data applications with seven disease datasets from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium cohort and eight groups of large-scale genome-wide association studies demonstrate that NeuPred achieves substantial and consistent improvements in terms of predictive r2 over existing methods. In addition, NeuPred has similar or advantageous computational efficiency compared with the state-of-the-art Bayesian methods.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The R package implementing NeuPred is available at https://github.com/shuangsong0110/NeuPred.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

A Smoothed Version of the Lassosum Penalty for Fitting Integrated Risk Models Using Summary Statistics or Individual-Level Data

Polygenic risk scores are a popular means to predict the disease risk or disease susceptibility of an individual based on its genotype information. When adding other important epidemiological covariates such as age or sex, we speak of an integrated risk model. Methodological advances for fitting more accurate integrated risk models are of immediate importance to improve the precision of risk prediction, thereby potentially identifying patients at high risk early on when they are still able to benefit from preventive steps/interventions targeted at increasing their odds of survival, or at reducing their chance of getting a disease in the first place. This article proposes a smoothed version of the “Lassosum” penalty used to fit polygenic risk scores and integrated risk models using either summary statistics or raw data. The smoothing allows one to obtain explicit gradients everywhere for efficient minimization of the Lassosum objective function while guaranteeing bounds on the accuracy of the fit. An experimental section on both Alzheimer’s disease and COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) demonstrates the increased accuracy of the proposed smoothed Lassosum penalty compared to the original Lassosum algorithm (for the datasets under consideration), allowing it to draw equal with state-of-the-art methodology such as LDpred2 when evaluated via the AUC (area under the ROC curve) metric.

Early-Life Injuries and the Development of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder

Objective: To estimate phenotypic and familial association between early-life injuries and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and the genetic contribution to the association using polygenic risk score for ADHD (PRS-ADHD) and genetic correlation analyses. Methods: Children born in Denmark between 1995-2010 (n = 786,543) were followed from age 5 years until a median age of 14 years (interquartile range: 10-18 years). Using ICD-10 diagnoses, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and absolute risks of ADHD by number of hospital/emergency ward-treated injuries by age 5. In a subset of ADHD cases and controls born 1995 to 2005 who had genetic data available (n = 16,580), we estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for the association between PRS-ADHD and number of injuries before age 5 and the genetic correlation between ADHD and any injury before age 5. Results: Injuries were associated with ADHD (HR = 1.61; 95% CI, 1.55-1.66) in males (HR = 1.59; 1.53-1.65) and females (HR = 1.65; 1.54-1.77), with a dose-response relationship with number of injuries. The absolute ADHD risk by age 15 was 8.4% (3+ injuries) vs 3.1% (no injuries). ADHD was also associated with injuries in relatives, with a stronger association in first- than second-degree relatives. PRS-ADHD was marginally associated with the number of injuries in the general population (IRR = 1.06; 1.00-1.14), with a genetic correlation of 0.53 (0.21-0.85). Conclusions: Early-life injuries in individuals and their relatives were associated with a diagnosis of ADHD. However, even in children with the most injuries, more than 90% were not diagnosed with ADHD by age 15. Despite a low positive predictive value and that the impact of unmeasured factors such as parental behavior remains unclear, results indicate that the association is partly explained by genetics, suggesting that early-life injuries may represent or herald early behavioral manifestations of ADHD.

The genetic background of the associations between sense of coherence and mental health, self-esteem and personality

PURPOSE

Sense of coherence (SOC) represents coping and can be considered an essential component of mental health. SOC correlates with mental health and personality, but the background of these associations is poorly understood. We analyzed the role of genetic factors behind the associations of SOC with mental health, self-esteem and personality using genetic twin modeling and polygenic scores (PGS).

METHODS

Information on SOC (13-item Orientation of Life Questionnaire), four mental health indicators, self-esteem and personality (NEO Five Factor Inventory Questionnaire) was collected from 1295 Finnish twins at 20-27 years of age.

RESULTS

In men and women, SOC correlated negatively with depression, alexithymia, schizotypal personality and overall mental health problems and positively with self-esteem. For personality factors, neuroticism was associated with weaker SOC and extraversion, agreeableness and conscientiousness with stronger SOC. All these psychological traits were influenced by genetic factors with heritability estimates ranging from 19 to 66%. Genetic and environmental factors explained these associations, but the genetic correlations were generally stronger. The PGS of major depressive disorder was associated with weaker, and the PGS of general risk tolerance with stronger SOC in men, whereas in women the PGS of subjective well-being was associated with stronger SOC and the PGSs of depression and neuroticism with weaker SOC.

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that a substantial proportion of genetic variation in SOC is shared with mental health, self-esteem and personality indicators. This suggests that the correlations between these traits reflect a common neurobiological background rather than merely the influence of external stressors.

From Genotype to Phenotype: Polygenic Prediction of Complex Human Traits

Decoding the genome confers the capability to predict characteristics of the organism (phenotype) from DNA (genotype). We describe the present status and future prospects of genomic prediction of complex traits in humans. Some highly heritable complex phenotypes such as height and other quantitative traits can already be predicted with reasonable accuracy from DNA alone. For many diseases, including important common conditions such as coronary artery disease, breast cancer, type I and II diabetes, individuals with outlier polygenic scores (e.g., top few percent) have been shown to have 5 or even 10 times higher risk than average. Several psychiatric conditions such as schizophrenia and autism also fall into this category. We discuss related topics such as the genetic architecture of complex traits, sibling validation of polygenic scores, and applications to adult health, in vitro fertilization (embryo selection), and genetic engineering.

Genetic Bases of Complex Traits: From Quantitative Trait Loci to Prediction

Conceived as a general introduction to the book, this chapter is a reminder of the core concepts of genetic mapping and molecular marker-based prediction. It provides an overview of the principles and the evolution of methods for mapping the variation of complex traits, and methods for QTL-based prediction of human disease risk and animal and plant breeding value. The principles of linkage-based and linkage disequilibrium-based QTL mapping methods are described in the context of the simplest, single-marker, methods. Methodological evolutions are analysed in relation with their ability to account for the complexity of the genotype-phenotype relations. Main characteristics of the genetic architecture of complex traits, drawn from QTL mapping works using large populations of unrelated individuals, are presented. Methods combining marker-QTL association data into polygenic risk score that captures part of an individual's susceptibility to complex diseases are reviewed. Principles of best linear mixed model-based prediction of breeding value in animal- and plant-breeding programs using phenotypic and pedigree data, are summarized and methods for moving from BLUP to marker-QTL BLUP are presented. Factors influencing the additional genetic progress achieved by using molecular data and rules for their optimization are discussed.

Contribution of schizophrenia polygenic burden to longitudinal phenotypic variance in 22q11.2 deletion syndrome

While the recurrent 22q11.2 deletion is one of the strongest genetic risk factors for schizophrenia (SCZ), variability of its associated neuropsychiatric endophenotypes reflects its incomplete penetrance for psychosis development. To assess whether this phenotypic variability is linked to common variants associated with SCZ, we studied the association between SCZ polygenic risk score (PRS) and longitudinally acquired phenotypic information of the Swiss 22q11.2DS cohort (n = 97, 50% females, mean age 17.7 yr, mean visit interval 3.8 yr). The SCZ PRS with the best predictive performance was ascertained in the Estonian Biobank (n = 201,146) with LDpred. The infinitesimal SCZ PRS model showed the strongest capacity in discriminating SCZ cases from controls with one SD difference in SCZ PRS corresponding to an odds ratio (OR) of 1.73 (95% CI 1.57-1.90, P = 1.47 × 10^-29). In 22q11.2 patients, random-effects ordinal regression modelling using longitudinal data showed SCZ PRS to have the strongest effect on social anhedonia (OR = 2.09, P = 0.0002), and occupational functioning (OR = 1.82, P = 0.0003) within the negative symptoms course, and dysphoric mood (OR = 2.00, P = 0.002) and stress intolerance (OR = 1.76, P = 0.0002) within the general symptoms course. Genetic liability for SCZ was additionally associated with full scale cognitive decline (β = -0.25, P = 0.02) and with longitudinal volumetric reduction of the right and left hippocampi (β = -0.28, P = 0.005; β = -0.23, P = 0.02, respectively). Our results indicate that the polygenic contribution to SCZ acts upon the threshold-lowering first hit (i.e., the deletion). It modifies the endophenotypes of 22q11.2DS and augments the derailment of developmental trajectories of negative and general symptoms, cognition, and hippocampal volume.

Polygenic prediction of atopic dermatitis improves with atopic training and filaggrin factors

BACKGROUND

While numerous genetic loci associated with atopic dermatitis (AD) have been discovered, to date, work leveraging the combined burden of AD risk variants across the genome to predict disease risk has been limited.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to determine whether polygenic risk scores (PRSs) relying on genetic determinants for AD provide useful predictions for disease occurrence and severity. It also explicitly tests the value of including genome-wide association studies of related allergic phenotypes and known FLG loss-of-function (LOF) variants.

METHODS

AD PRSs were constructed for 1619 European American individuals from the Atopic Dermatitis Research Network using an AD training dataset and an atopic training dataset including AD, childhood onset asthma, and general allergy. Additionally, whole genome sequencing data were used to explore genetic scoring specific to FLG LOF mutations.

RESULTS

Genetic scores derived from the AD-only genome-wide association studies were predictive of AD cases (PRSAD: odds ratio [OR], 1.70; 95% CI, 1.49-1.93). Accuracy was first improved when PRSs were built off the larger atopy genome-wide association studies (PRSAD+: OR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.89-2.47) and further improved when including FLG LOF mutations (PRSAD++: OR, 3.23; 95% CI, 2.57-4.07). Importantly, while all 3 PRSs correlated with AD severity, the best prediction was from PRSAD++, which distinguished individuals with severe AD from control subjects with OR of 3.86 (95% CI, 2.77-5.36).

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates how PRSs for AD that include genetic determinants across atopic phenotypes and FLG LOF variants may be a promising tool for identifying individuals at high risk for developing disease and specifically severe disease.

Large uncertainty in individual polygenic risk score estimation impacts PRS-based risk stratification

Although the cohort-level accuracy of polygenic risk scores (PRSs)-estimates of genetic value at the individual level-has been widely assessed, uncertainty in PRSs remains underexplored. In the present study, we show that Bayesian PRS methods can estimate the variance of an individual's PRS and can yield well-calibrated credible intervals via posterior sampling. For 13 real traits in the UK Biobank (n = 291,273 unrelated 'white British'), we observe large variances in individual PRS estimates which impact interpretation of PRS-based stratification; averaging across traits, only 0.8% (s.d. = 1.6%) of individuals with PRS point estimates in the top decile have corresponding 95% credible intervals fully contained in the top decile. We provide an analytical estimator for the expectation of individual PRS variance as a function of SNP heritability, number of causal SNPs and sample size. Our results showcase the importance of incorporating uncertainty in individual PRS estimates into subsequent analyses.

Polygenic Risk Scores in Alzheimer's Disease Genetics: Methodology, Applications, Inclusion, and Diversity

The success of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) completed in the last 15 years has reinforced a key fact: polygenic architecture makes a substantial contribution to variation of susceptibility to complex disease, including Alzheimer's disease. One straight-forward way to capture this architecture and predict which individuals in a population are most at risk is to calculate a polygenic risk score (PRS). This score aggregates the risk conferred across multiple genetic variants, ultimately representing an individual's predicted genetic susceptibility for a disease. PRS have received increasing attention after having been successfully used in complex traits. This has brought with it renewed attention on new methods which improve the accuracy of risk prediction. While these applications are initially informative, their utility is far from equitable: the majority of PRS models use samples heavily if not entirely of individuals of European descent. This basic approach opens concerns of health equity if applied inaccurately to other population groups, or health disparity if we fail to use them at all. In this review we will examine the methods of calculating PRS and some of their previous uses in disease prediction. We also advocate for, with supporting scientific evidence, inclusion of data from diverse populations in these existing and future studies of population risk via PRS.

Genetic liability for substance use associated with medical comorbidities in electronic health records of African- and European-ancestry individuals

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) represent an individual's summed genetic risk for a trait and can serve as biomarkers for disease. Less is known about the utility of PRS as a means to quantify genetic risk for substance use disorders (SUDs) than for many other traits. Nonetheless, the growth of large, electronic health record-based biobanks makes it possible to evaluate the association of SUD PRS with other traits. We calculated PRS for smoking initiation, alcohol use disorder (AUD), and opioid use disorder (OUD) using summary statistics from the Million Veteran Program sample. We then tested the association of each PRS with its primary phenotype in the Penn Medicine BioBank (PMBB) using all available genotyped participants of African or European ancestry (AFR and EUR, respectively) (N = 18,612). Finally, we conducted phenome-wide association analyses (PheWAS) separately by ancestry and sex to test for associations across disease categories. Tobacco use disorder was the most common SUD in the PMBB, followed by AUD and OUD, consistent with the population prevalence of these disorders. All PRS were associated with their primary phenotype in both ancestry groups. PheWAS results yielded cross-trait associations across multiple domains, including psychiatric disorders and medical conditions. SUD PRS were associated with their primary phenotypes; however, they are not yet predictive enough to be useful diagnostically. The cross-trait associations of the SUD PRS are indicative of a broader genetic liability. Future work should extend findings to additional population groups and for other substances of abuse.

A survey of genome-wide association studies, polygenic scores and UK Biobank highlights resources for autoimmune disease genetics

Autoimmune diseases share a general mechanism of auto-antigens harming tissues. Still. they are phenotypically diverse, with genetic as well as environmental factors contributing to their etiology at varying degrees. Associated genomic loci and variants have been identified in numerous genome-wide association studies (GWAS), whose results are increasingly used for polygenic scores (PGS) that are used to predict disease risk. At the same time, a technological shift from genotyping arrays to next generation sequencing (NGS) is ongoing. NGS allows the identification of virtually all - including rare - genetic variants, which in combination with methodological developments promises to improve the prediction of disease risk and elucidate molecular mechanisms underlying disease. Here we review current, publicly available autoimmune disease GWAS and PGS data based on information from the GWAS and PGS catalog, respectively. We summarize autoimmune diseases investigated, respective studies conducted and their results. Further, we review genetic data and autoimmune disease patients in the UK Biobank (UKB), the largest resource for genetic and phenotypic data available for academic research. We find that only comparably prevalent autoimmune diseases are covered by the UKB and at the same time assessed by both GWAS and PGS catalogs. These are systemic (systemic lupus erythematosus) as well as organ-specific, affecting the gastrointestinal tract (inflammatory bowel disease as well as specifically Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis), joints (juvenile ideopathic arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis), glands (Sjögren syndrome), the nervous system (multiple sclerosis), and the skin (vitiligo).

The Latent Structure of Negative Symptoms in the General Population in Adolescence and Emerging Adulthood

Negative symptoms predict adverse outcomes within psychotic disorders, in individuals at high-risk for psychosis, and in young people in the community. There is considerable interest in the dimensional structure of negative symptoms in clinical samples, and accumulating evidence suggests a 5-factor structure. Little is known about the underlying structure of negative symptoms in young people despite the importance of this developmental stage for mental health. We used confirmatory factor analysis to test the structure of parent-reported negative symptoms at mean ages 16.32 (SD 0.68, N = 4974), 17.06 (SD 0.88, N = 1469) and 22.30 (SD 0.93, N = 5179) in a community sample. Given previously reported associations between total negative symptoms and genome-wide polygenic scores (GPS) for major depressive disorder (MDD) and schizophrenia in adolescence, we assessed associations between individual subdomains and these GPSs. A 5-factor model of flat affect, alogia, avolition, anhedonia, and asociality provided the best fit at each age and was invariant over time. The results of our linear regression analyses showed associations between MDD GPS with avolition, flat affect, anhedonia, and asociality, and between schizophrenia GPS with avolition and flat affect. We showed that a 5-factor structure of negative symptoms is present from ages 16 to 22 in the community. Avolition was most consistently associated with polygenic liability to MDD and schizophrenia, and alogia was least associated. These findings highlight the value of dissecting negative symptoms into psychometrically derived subdomains and may offer insights into early manifestation of genetic risk for MDD and schizophrenia.

Obesity Duration, Severity, and Distribution Trajectories and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Background Research examining the role of obesity in cardiovascular disease (CVD) often fails to adequately consider heterogeneity in obesity severity, distribution, and duration. Methods and Results We here use multivariate latent class mixed models in the biracial Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (N=14 514; mean age=54 years; 55% female) to associate obesity subclasses (derived from body mass index, waist circumference, self-reported weight at age 25, tricep skinfold, and calf circumference across up to four triennial visits) with total mortality, incident CVD, and CVD risk factors. We identified four obesity subclasses, summarized by their body mass index and waist circumference slope as decline (4.1%), stable/slow decline (67.8%), moderate increase (24.6%), and rapid increase (3.6%) subclasses. Compared with participants in the stable/slow decline subclass, the decline subclass was associated with elevated mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.45, 95% CI 1.31, 1.60, P<0.0001) and with heart failure (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.22, 1.63, P<0.0001), stroke (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.22, 1.92, P=0.0002), and coronary heart disease (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.14, 1.63, P=0.0008), adjusting for baseline body mass index and CVD risk factor profile. The moderate increase latent class was not associated with any significant differences in CVD risk as compared to the stable/slow decline latent class and was associated with a lower overall risk of mortality (HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.80, 0.90, P<0.0001), despite higher body mass index at baseline. The rapid increase latent class was associated with a higher risk of heart failure versus the stable/slow decline latent class (HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.10, 1.62, P=0.004). Conclusions Consideration of heterogeneity and longitudinal changes in obesity measures is needed in clinical care for a more precision-oriented view of CVD risk.

Improved analyses of GWAS summary statistics by reducing data heterogeneity and errors

statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have facilitated the development of various summary data-based methods, which typically require a reference sample for linkage disequilibrium (LD) estimation. Analyses using these methods may be biased by errors in GWAS summary data or LD reference or heterogeneity between GWAS and LD reference. Here we propose a quality control method, DENTIST, that leverages LD among genetic variants to detect and eliminate errors in GWAS or LD reference and heterogeneity between the two. Through simulations, we demonstrate that DENTIST substantially reduces false-positive rate in detecting secondary signals in the summary-data-based conditional and joint association analysis, especially for imputed rare variants (false-positive rate reduced from >28% to <2% in the presence of heterogeneity between GWAS and LD reference). We further show that DENTIST can improve other summary-data-based analyses such as fine-mapping analysis.

Smooth-threshold multivariate genetic prediction incorporating gene–environment interactions

We propose a genetic prediction modeling approach for genome-wide association study (GWAS) data that can include not only marginal gene effects but also gene–environment (GxE) interaction effects—i.e., multiplicative effects of environmental factors with genes rather than merely additive effects of each. The proposed approach is a straightforward extension of our previous multiple regression-based method, STMGP (smooth-threshold multivariate genetic prediction), with the new feature being that genome-wide test statistics from a GxE interaction analysis are used to weight the corresponding variants. We develop a simple univariate regression approximation to the GxE interaction effect that allows a direct fit of the STMGP framework without modification. The sparse nature of our model automatically removes irrelevant predictors (including variants and GxE combinations), and the model is able to simultaneously incorporate multiple environmental variables. Simulation studies to evaluate the proposed method in comparison with other modeling approaches demonstrate its superior performance under the presence of GxE interaction effects. We illustrate the usefulness of our prediction model through application to real GWAS data from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI).