Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Dental Status and Compression of Life Expectancy with Disability

This study examined whether the number of teeth contributes to the compression of morbidity, measured as a shortening of life expectancy with disability, an extension of healthy life expectancy, and overall life expectancy. A prospective cohort study was conducted. A self-reported baseline survey was given to 126,438 community-dwelling older people aged ≥65 y in Japan in 2010, and 85,161 (67.4%) responded. The onset of functional disability and all-cause mortality were followed up for 1,374 d (follow-up rate = 96.1%). A sex-stratified illness-death model was applied to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for 3 health transitions (healthy to dead, healthy to disabled, and disabled to dead). Absolute differences in life expectancy, healthy life expectancy, and life expectancy with disability according to the number of teeth were also estimated. Age, denture use, socioeconomic status, health status, and health behavior were adjusted. Compared with the edentulous participants, participants with ≥20 teeth had lower risks of transitioning from healthy to dead (adjusted HR, 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.50-0.68] for men and 0.70 [95% CI, 0.57-0.85] for women) and from healthy to disabled (adjusted HR, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.44-0.61] for men and 0.58 [95% CI, 0.49-0.68] for women). They also transitioned from disabled to dead earlier (adjusted HR, 1.26 [95% CI, 0.99-1.60] for men and 2.42 [95% CI, 1.72-3.38] for women). Among the participants aged ≥85 y, those with ≥20 teeth had a longer life expectancy (men: +57 d; women: +15 d) and healthy life expectancy (men: +92 d; women: +70 d) and a shorter life expectancy with disability (men: -35 d; women: -55 d) compared with the edentulous participants. Similar associations were observed among the younger participants and those with 1 to 9 or 10 to 19 teeth. The presence of remaining teeth was associated with a significant compression of morbidity: older Japanese adults' life expectancy with disability was compressed by 35 to 55 d within the follow-up of 1,374 d.

Burden of vision loss associated with eye disease in China 19902020: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

AIMS

To assess the burden of vision loss due to eye disease in China between 1990 and 2015, and to predict the burden in 2020.

METHODS

Data from the GBD 2015 (Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015) were used. The main outcome measures were prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for vision loss due to cataract, glaucoma, macular degeneration, other vision loss, refraction and accommodation disorders and trachoma.

RESULTS

Prevalence for eye diseases increased steadily from 1990 to 2015, and will increase until 2020. From 1990 to 2015, the most common eye disorder was refraction and accommodation disorders. From 1990 to 2015, the vision loss burden due to eye disease decreased for those aged 0-14 years, and increased for those aged 15 years and above, with the most notable increases occurring among those aged 50 years and above. China ranked 10th when comparing YLDs for vision loss due to eye disease with the other members of the G20 (Group of Twenty, an international forum for the governments from 20 major economies) . Age-standardised YLD rates for vision loss due to eye disease declined in all 19 countries, except for China. The burden from vision loss due to eye disease ranked 12th and 11th among all causes of health loss in China in 1990 and 2015, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Alone among major economies, China has experienced an increase in the burden of age-standardised vision loss from eye disease over the last two decades. In the future, China may expect a growing burden of vision loss due to population growth and ageing.

Cardiac rehabilitation costs

BACKGROUND

Despite the clinical benefits of cardiac rehabilitation (CR) and its cost-effectiveness, it is not widely received. Arguably, capacity could be greatly increased if lower-cost models were implemented. The aims of this review were to describe: the costs associated with CR delivery, approaches to reduce these costs, and associated implications.

METHODS

Upon finalizing the PICO statement, information scientists were enlisted to develop the search strategy of MEDLINE, Embase, CDSR, Google Scholar and Scopus. Citations identified were considered for inclusion by the first author. Extracted cost data were summarized in tabular format and qualitatively synthesized.

RESULTS

There is wide variability in the cost of CR delivery around the world, and patients pay out-of-pocket for some or all of services in 55% of countries. Supervised CR costs in high-income countries ranged from PPP$294 (Purchasing Power Parity; 2016 United States Dollars) in the United Kingdom to PPP$12,409 in Italy, and in middle-income countries ranged from PPP$146 in Venezuela to PPP$1095 in Brazil. Costs relate to facilities, personnel, and session dose. Delivering CR using information and communication technology (mean cost PPP$753/patient/program), lowering the dose and using lower-cost personnel and equipment are important strategies to consider in containing costs, however few explicitly low-cost models are available in the literature.

CONCLUSION

More research is needed regarding the costs to deliver CR in community settings, the cost-effectiveness of CR in most countries, and the economic impact of return-to-work with CR participation. A low-cost model of CR should be standardized and tested for efficacy across multiple healthcare systems.

Clinical guidelines for low back pain: A critical review of consensus and inconsistencies across three major guidelines

Given the scale and cost of the low back pain problem, it is imperative that healthcare professionals involved in the care of people with low back pain have access to up-to-date, evidence-based information to assist them in treatment decision-making. Clinical guidelines exist to promote the consistent best practice, to reduce unwarranted variation and to reduce the use of low-value interventions in patient care. Recent decades have witnessed the publication of a number of such guidelines. In this narrative review, we consider three selected international interdisciplinary guidelines for the management of low back pain. Guideline development methods, consistent recommendations and inconsistencies between these guidelines are critically discussed.

Data Collection for Mental Health Studies Through Digital Platforms: Requirements and Design of a Prototype

BACKGROUND

Mental and behavioral disorders are the main cause of disability worldwide. However, their diagnosis is challenging due to a lack of reliable biomarkers; current detection is based on structured clinical interviews which can be biased by the patient's recall ability, affective state, changing in temporal frames, etc. While digital platforms have been introduced as a possible solution to this complex problem, there is little evidence on the extent of usability and usefulness of these platforms. Therefore, more studies where digital data is collected in larger scales are needed to collect scientific evidence on the capacities of these platforms. Most of the existing platforms for digital psychiatry studies are designed as monolithic systems for a certain type of study; publications from these studies focus on their results, rather than the design features of the data collection platform. Inevitably, more tools and platforms will emerge in the near future to fulfill the need for digital data collection for psychiatry. Currently little knowledge is available from existing digital platforms for future data collection platforms to build upon.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this work was to identify the most important features for designing a digital platform for data collection for mental health studies, and to demonstrate a prototype platform that we built based on these design features.

METHODS

We worked closely in a multidisciplinary collaboration with psychiatrists, software developers, and data scientists and identified the key features which could guarantee short-term and long-term stability and usefulness of the platform from the designing stage to data collection and analysis of collected data.

RESULTS

The key design features that we identified were flexibility of access control, flexibility of data sources, and first-order privacy protection. We also designed the prototype platform Non-Intrusive Individual Monitoring Architecture (Niima), where we implemented these key design features. We described why each of these features are important for digital data collection for psychiatry, gave examples of projects where Niima was used or is going to be used in the future, and demonstrated how incorporating these design principles opens new possibilities for studies.

CONCLUSIONS

The new methods of digital psychiatry are still immature and need further research. The design features we suggested are a first step to design platforms which can adapt to the upcoming requirements of digital psychiatry.

The biopsychosocial model and chiropractic: a commentary with recommendations for the chiropractic profession

There is an increasing awareness, interest and acceptance of the biopsychosocial (BPS) model by all health care professionals involved with patient care. The areas of spine care and pain medicine are no exception, and in fact, these areas of health care are a major centerpiece of the movement from the traditional biomedical model to a BPS model of patient assessment and delivery of care. The chiropractic approach to health care has a history that is grounded in key aspects of the BPS model. The profession has inherently implemented certain features of the BPS model throughout its history, perhaps without a full understanding or realization. The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of the BPS model, its relationship with spine care and pain management, and to discuss the BPS model, particularly psychosocial aspects, in the context of its historical relationship with chiropractic. We will also provide recommendations for the chiropractic profession as it relates to successful adoption of a full integration of the BPS model.

Epidemiological Effectiveness and Cost of a Fungal Meningitis Outbreak Response in New River Valley, Virginia: Local Health Department and Clinical Perspectives

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated the effectiveness and cost of a fungal meningitis outbreak response in the New River Valley of Virginia during 2012-2013 from the perspective of the local public health department and clinical facilities. The fungal meningitis outbreak affected 23 states in the United States with 751 cases and 64 deaths in 20 states; there were 56 cases and 5 deaths in Virginia.

METHODS

We conducted a partial economic evaluation of the fungal meningitis outbreak response in New River Valley. We collected costs associated with the local health department and clinical facilities in the outbreak response and estimated the epidemiological effectiveness by using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted.

RESULTS

We estimated the epidemiological effectiveness of this outbreak response to be 153 DALYs averted among the patients, and the costs incurred by the local health department and clinical facilities to be $30,413 and $39,580, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $198 per DALY averted and $258 per DALY averted from the local health department and clinical perspectives, respectively, thereby assisting in impact evaluation of the outbreak response by the local health department and clinical facilities. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:38-46).

Type 2 diabetes

415 million people live with diabetes worldwide, and an estimated 193 million people have undiagnosed diabetes. Type 2 diabetes accounts for more than 90% of patients with diabetes and leads to microvascular and macrovascular complications that cause profound psychological and physical distress to both patients and carers and put a huge burden on health-care systems. Despite increasing knowledge regarding risk factors for type 2 diabetes and evidence for successful prevention programmes, the incidence and prevalence of the disease continues to rise globally. Early detection through screening programmes and the availability of safe and effective therapies reduces morbidity and mortality by preventing or delaying complications. Increased understanding of specific diabetes phenotypes and genotypes might result in more specific and tailored management of patients with type 2 diabetes, as has been shown in patients with maturity onset diabetes of the young. In this Seminar, we describe recent developments in the diagnosis and management of type 2 diabetes, existing controversies, and future directions of care.

Pain Assessment of Elderly Patients with Cognitive Impairment in the Emergency Department: Implications for Pain Management-A Narrative Review of Current Practices

Elderly people are susceptible to both falls and cognitive impairment making them a particularly vulnerable group of patients when it comes to pain assessment and management in the emergency department (ED). Pain assessment is often difficult in patients who present to the ED with a cognitive impairment as they are frequently unable to self-report their level of pain, which can have a negative impact on pain management. This paper aims to review how cognitive impairment influences pain assessment in elderly adults who present to the ED with an injury due to a fall. A literature search of EMBASE, ProQuest, PubMed, Science Direct, SciFinder and the Curtin University Library database was conducted using keyword searches to generate lists of articles which were then screened for relevance by title and then abstract to give a final list of articles for full-text review. Further articles were identified by snowballing from the reference lists of the full-text articles. The literature reports that ED staff commonly use visual or verbal analogue scales to assess pain, but resort to their own intuition or physiological parameters rather than using standardised observational pain assessment tools when self-report of pain is not attainable due to cognitive impairment. While studies have found that the use of pain assessment tools improves the recognition and management of pain, pain scores are often not recorded for elderly patients with a cognitive impairment in the ED, leading to poorer pain management in this patient group in terms of time to analgesic administration and the use of strong opioids. All healthcare professionals involved in the care of such patients, including pharmacists, need to be aware of this and strive to ensure analgesic use is guided by appropriate and accurate pain assessment in the ED.

Reference values and factors associated with musculoskeletal symptoms in healthy adolescents and adults

BACKGROUND

Insufficient attention has been given to individuals who report musculoskeletal symptoms yet experience minimal disability.

OBJECTIVES

To examine musculoskeletal symptoms among healthy individuals, and compare demographic, psychological and physical factors between individuals with and without symptoms.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional observational study.

METHOD

Data were from the 1000 Norms Project which recruited 1000 individuals aged 3-101 years. Participants were healthy by self-report and had no major physical disability. Musculoskeletal symptoms (ache/pain/discomfort, including single-site and multi-site symptoms) were assessed in adolescents (11-17y) and adults (18-101y) using the Extended Nordic Musculoskeletal Questionnaire (NMQ-E). To compare individuals with single-site, multi-site and no symptoms, body mass index, grip strength, 6-min walk, 30-s chair stand and timed up-and-down stairs (all participants), and mental health, sleep difficulties, self-efficacy and physical activity (adults), were collected.

RESULTS

/findings: Socio-demographic characteristics were similar to the Australian population. Twelve-month period prevalence of all symptoms was 69-82%; point prevalence was 23-39%. Adults with single-site symptoms were more likely to be overweight/obese and had lower sit-to-stand and stair-climbing performance (p < 0.05). Adults with multi-site symptoms were more likely to be female and overweight/obese, had lower mental health, greater sleep difficulties and lower grip strength, 6-min walk and sit-to-stand performance (p < 0.05). Differences were only observed among 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and 80-101 year-olds.

CONCLUSIONS

Normative reference data for the NMQ-E have been generated. Musculoskeletal symptoms are common among healthy individuals. In older adults, musculoskeletal symptoms are linked with overweight/obesity, lower mental health, sleep difficulties and lower physical performance, emphasising the importance of multi-dimensional assessments in musculoskeletal disorders.

Child and Adolescent Health From 1990 to 2015: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 Study

Importance

Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health.

Objective

To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion.

Evidence Review

Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss.

Findings

Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3% (95% UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries.

Conclusions and Relevance

Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.

Estimates of global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of diarrhoeal diseases: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoeal diseases. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 25 years and informs the changing picture of diarrhoeal disease worldwide.

Methods

We estimated diarrhoeal mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm), a modelling platform shared across most causes of death in the GBD 2015 study. We modelled diarrhoeal morbidity, including incidence and prevalence, using a meta-regression platform called DisMod-MR. We estimated aetiologies for diarrhoeal diseases using a counterfactual approach that incorporates the aetiology-specific risk of diarrhoeal disease and the prevalence of the aetiology in diarrhoea episodes. We used the Socio-demographic Index, a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility, to assess trends in diarrhoeal mortality. The two leading risk factors for diarrhoea—childhood malnutrition and unsafe water, sanitation, and hygiene—were used in a decomposition analysis to establish the relative contribution of changes in diarrhoea disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).

Findings

Globally, in 2015, we estimate that diarrhoea was a leading cause of death among all ages (1·31 million deaths, 95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 1·23 million to 1·39 million), as well as a leading cause of DALYs because of its disproportionate impact on young children (71·59 million DALYs, 66·44 million to 77·21 million). Diarrhoea was a common cause of death among children under 5 years old (499 000 deaths, 95% UI 447 000–558 000). The number of deaths due to diarrhoea decreased by an estimated 20·8% (95% UI 15·4–26·1) from 2005 to 2015. Rotavirus was the leading cause of diarrhoea deaths (199 000, 95% UI 165 000–241 000), followed by Shigella spp (164 300, 85 000–278 700) and Salmonella spp (90 300, 95% UI 34 100–183 100). Among children under 5 years old, the three aetiologies responsible for the most deaths were rotavirus, Cryptosporidium spp, and Shigella spp. Improvements in safe water and sanitation have decreased diarrhoeal DALYs by 13·4%, and reductions in childhood undernutrition have decreased diarrhoeal DALYs by 10·0% between 2005 and 2015.

Interpretation

At the global level, deaths due to diarrhoeal diseases have decreased substantially in the past 25 years, although progress has been faster in some countries than others. Diarrhoea remains a largely preventable disease and cause of death, and continued efforts to improve access to safe water, sanitation, and childhood nutrition will be important in reducing the global burden of diarrhoea.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Lesinurad: what the nephrologist should know

Lesinurad is an oral inhibitor of the monocarboxylic/urate transporter URAT1 encoded by the SLC22A12 gene. Market authorization was granted in February 2016 in Europe and December 2015 in the USA. As a potentially nephrotoxic uricosuric drug acting on the kidney, nephrologists should become familiar with its indications and safety profile. The approved indication is treatment of gout in combination with a xanthine oxidase (XO) inhibitor in adult patients who have not achieved target serum uric acid levels with an XO inhibitor alone. It is not indicated for asymptomatic hyperuricaemia or for patients with estimated creatinine clearance <45 mL/min. The only authorized daily dose is 200 mg and cannot be exceeded because of the nephrotoxicity risk. Nephrotoxicity is thought to be related to uricosuria. At the 200 mg/day dose, serum creatinine more than doubled in 1.8% of lesinurad patients (versus 0% in placebo) and in 11% of these it was not reversible. In addition, it is subject to a risk management plan given the potential association with cardiovascular events. In randomized clinical trials, the association of lesinurad with either allopurinol or febuxostat achieved a greater reduction in serum uric acid (∼1 mg/dL lower) than the XO inhibitors alone, and this allowed the serum uric acid target to be met in a higher proportion of patients, which was the primary endpoint. However, no clinical differences were observed in gout flares or tophi, although these were not the primary endpoints.

Forecasted trends in disability and life expectancy in England and Wales up to 2025: a modelling study

Background

Reliable estimation of future trends in life expectancy and the burden of disability is crucial for ageing societies. Previous forecasts have not considered the potential impact of trends in disease incidence. The present prediction model combines population trends in cardiovascular disease, dementia, disability, and mortality to forecast trends in life expectancy and the burden of disability in England and Wales up to 2025.

Methods

We developed and validated the IMPACT-Better Ageing Model—a probabilistic model that tracks the population aged 35–100 years through ten health states characterised by the presence or absence of cardiovascular disease, dementia, disability (difficulty with one or more activities of daily living) or death up to 2025, by use of evidence-based age-specific, sex-specific, and year-specific transition probabilities. As shown in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we projected continuing declines in dementia incidence (2·7% per annum), cardiovascular incidence, and mortality. The model estimates disability prevalence and disabled and disability-free life expectancy by year.

Findings

Between 2015 and 2025, the number of people aged 65 years and older will increase by 19·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 17·7–20·9), from 10·4 million (10·37–10·41 million) to 12·4 million (12·23–12·57 million). The number living with disability will increase by 25·0% (95% UI 21·3–28·2), from 2·25 million (2·24–2·27 million) to 2·81 million (2·72–2·89 million). The age-standardised prevalence of disability among this population will remain constant, at 21·7% (95% UI 21·5–21·8) in 2015 and 21·6% (21·3–21·8) in 2025. Total life expectancy at age 65 years will increase by 1·7 years (95% UI 0·1–3·6), from 20·1 years (19·9–20·3) to 21·8 years (20·2–23·6). Disability-free life expectancy at age 65 years will increase by 1·0 years (95% UI 0·1–1·9), from 15·4 years (15·3–15·5) to 16·4 years (15·5–17·3). However, life expectancy with disability will increase more in relative terms, with an increase of roughly 15% from 2015 (4·7 years, 95% UI 4·6–4·8) to 2025 (5·4 years, 4·7–6·4).

Interpretation

The number of older people with care needs will expand by 25% by 2025, mainly reflecting population ageing rather than an increase in prevalence of disability. Lifespans will increase further in the next decade, but a quarter of life expectancy at age 65 years will involve disability.

Funding

British Heart Foundation.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases for 10 Causes, 1990 to 2015

Background

The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world.

Objectives

The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden.

Methods

CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility.

Results

In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 17.59 to 18.28 million CVD deaths). Declines in the age-standardized CVD death rate occurred between 1990 and 2015 in all high-income and some middle-income countries. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD health lost globally, as well as in each world region, followed by stroke. As SDI increased beyond 0.25, the highest CVD mortality shifted from women to men. CVD mortality decreased sharply for both sexes in countries with an SDI >0.75.

Conclusions

CVDs remain a major cause of health loss for all regions of the world. Sociodemographic change over the past 25 years has been associated with dramatic declines in CVD in regions with very high SDI, but only a gradual decrease or no change in most regions. Future updates of the GBD study can be used to guide policymakers who are focused on reducing the overall burden of noncommunicable disease and achieving specific global health targets for CVD.

Models for estimating and projecting global, regional and national prevalence and disease burden of asthma: protocol for a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Models that have so far been used to estimate and project the prevalence and disease burden of asthma are in most cases inadequately described and irreproducible. We aim systematically to describe and critique the existing models in relation to their strengths, limitations and reproducibility, and to determine the appropriate models for estimating and projecting the prevalence and disease burden of asthma.

METHODS

We will search the following electronic databases to identify relevant literature published from 1980 to 2017: Medline, Embase, WHO Library and Information Services and Web of Science Core Collection. We will identify additional studies by searching the reference list of all the retrieved papers and contacting experts. We will include observational studies that used models for estimating and/or projecting prevalence and disease burden of asthma regarding human population of any age and sex. Two independent reviewers will assess the studies for inclusion and extract data from included papers. Data items will include authors' names, publication year, study aims, data source and time period, study population, asthma outcomes, study methodology, model type, model settings, study variables, methods of model derivation, methods of parameter estimation and/or projection, model fit information, key findings and identified research gaps. A detailed critical narrative synthesis of the models will be undertaken in relation to their strengths, limitations and reproducibility. A quality assessment checklist and scoring framework will be used to determine the appropriate models for estimating and projecting the prevalence anddiseaseburden of asthma.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

We will not collect any primary data for this review, and hence there is no need for formal National Health Services Research Ethics Committee approval. We will present our findings at scientific conferences and publish the findings in the peer-reviewed scientific journal.

Toxoplasma gondii and schizophrenia: a review of published RCTs

Over the last 60 years, accumulating evidence has suggested that acute, chronic, and maternal Toxoplasma gondii infections predispose to schizophrenia. More recent evidence suggests that chronically infected patients with schizophrenia present with more severe disease. After acute infection, parasites form walled cysts in the brain, leading to lifelong chronic infection and drug resistance to commonly used antiparasitics. Chronic infection is the most studied and closely linked with development and severity of schizophrenia. There are currently four published randomized controlled trials evaluating antiparasitic drugs, specifically azithromycin, trimethoprim, artemisinin, and artemether, in patients with schizophrenia. No trials have demonstrated a change in psychopathology with adjunctive treatment. Published trials have either selected drugs without evidence against chronic infection or used them at doses too low to reduce brain cyst burden. Furthermore, trials have failed to achieve sufficient power or account for confounders such as previous antipsychotic treatment, sex, age, or rhesus status on antiparasitic effect. There are currently no ongoing trials of anti-Toxoplasma therapy in schizophrenia despite ample evidence to justify further testing.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) kills more than 3 million people worldwide every year. Despite progress in the treatment of symptoms and prevention of acute exacerbations, few advances have been made to ameliorate disease progression or affect mortality. A better understanding of the complex disease mechanisms resulting in COPD is needed. Smoking cessation programmes, increasing physical activity, and early detection and treatment of comorbidities are further key components to reduce the burden of the disease. However, without a global political and economic effort to reduce tobacco use, to regulate environmental exposure, and to find alternatives to the massive use of biomass fuel, COPD will remain a major health-care problem for decades to come.

Improving outcome of fungal diseases - Guiding experts and patients towards excellence

Invasive fungal infections are on the rise and during recent years understanding the epidemiology of fungal infections improved. Over 1 billion people are affected and 25 million patients are at imminent risk of severe organ damage or death due to fungal infection. The European Confederation of Medical Mycology (ECMM), founded in 1993, is the roof organisation of 23 National Medical Mycology Societies in Europe. ECMM fights fungal infections at various levels, by creating and distributing scientific knowledge and promoting scientific exchange. In response to the increasing prevalence and management complexity of invasive fungal infections, ECMM recently launched three additional initiatives (https://www.ecmm.info/). (i) ECMM together with other European infectious diseases societies created a comprehensive set of European guidelines for the diagnostic and therapeutic management of invasive fungal infections. (ii) ECMM founded the ECMM Academy awarding fellow status (FECMM) to outstanding researchers who advanced medical mycology. The academy aims at strengthening networking activities between these researchers. (iii) Centres throughout the world can apply for ECMM Excellence Center Status. Following such application on site auditing of up to three levels of mycological work (clinical, microbiological, epidemiological/clinical trials) evaluates the excellence of a centre along predefined criteria. All three initiatives share a common ambition; they aim at improving outcome of fungal diseases through guiding experts and patients towards excellence. Acknowledging fungal infections as a global problem, all three initiatives explicitly reach out beyond European borders.

Impact of the global burden of periodontal diseases on health, nutrition and wellbeing of mankind: A call for global action

BACKGROUND

The global burden of periodontal diseases remains high. Population growth trends, changes in risk factors and improved tooth retention will increase the socio-economic burden of periodontitis that is responsible for 3.5 million years lived with disability, 54 billion USD/year in lost productivity and a major portion of the 442 billion USD/year cost for oral diseases.

METHODS

In the context of the Milan World Exhibition 2015 "Feeding the Planet, Energy for Life," a green paper was developed and offered for global consultation by the European Federation of Periodontology. The final draft was endorsed by professional organizations around the world and is presented to stakeholders as a call for global action.

RESULTS

Specific actions for the public, policymakers, educators and professional organizations have been identified in the areas of prevention, detection and care. These actions align public interest and knowledge, need for self-care, professional intervention and policies to the best scientific evidence to proactively promote periodontal health and effectively manage the global burden of periodontal diseases, in accordance with WHO/UN priorities and strategies for tackling common non-communicable diseases via the Common Risk Factor Approach.

CONCLUSIONS

A strong and coherent body of evidence allows identification of actionable preventive, diagnostic and therapeutic strategies to effectively promote periodontal health and general wellbeing, and better manage the socio-economic consequences. Action requires consideration of the specific national scenarios.

ACE and SGLT2 inhibitors: the future for non-diabetic and diabetic proteinuric renal disease

Most chronic nephropathies progress relentlessly to end-stage kidney disease. Research in animals and humans has helped our understanding of the mechanisms of chronic kidney disease progression. Current therapeutic strategies to prevent or revert renal disease progression focus on reduction of urinary protein excretion and blood pressure control. Blockade of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and/or angiotensin II type 1 receptor blockers is the most effective treatment to achieve these purposes in non-diabetic and diabetic proteinuric renal diseases. For those individuals in which nephroprotection by RAS blockade is only partial, sodium-glucose linked cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors could be a promising new class of drugs to provide further renoprotective benefit when added on to RAS blockers.

Spanish Guidelines for Management of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (GesEPOC) 2017. Pharmacological Treatment of Stable Phase

The clinical presentation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) varies widely, so treatment must be tailored according to the level of risk and phenotype. In 2012, the Spanish COPD Guidelines (GesEPOC) first established pharmacological treatment regimens based on clinical phenotypes. These regimens were subsequently adopted by other national guidelines, and since then, have been backed up by new evidence. In this 2017 update, the original severity classification has been replaced by a much simpler risk classification (low or high risk), on the basis of lung function, dyspnea grade, and history of exacerbations, while determination of clinical phenotype is recommended only in high-risk patients. The same clinical phenotypes have been maintained: non-exacerbator, asthma-COPD overlap (ACO), exacerbator with emphysema, and exacerbator with bronchitis. Pharmacological treatment of COPD is based on bronchodilators, the only treatment recommended in low-risk patients. High-risk patients will receive different drugs in addition to bronchodilators, depending on their clinical phenotype. GesEPOC reflects a more individualized approach to COPD treatment, according to patient clinical characteristics and level of risk or complexity.

Animal models of pain and migraine in drug discovery

Preclinical research activities in relation to pain typically involve the 'holy trinity' of nociceptive, inflammatory and neuropathic pain for purposes of target validation and defining target product profiles of novel analgesic compounds. For some reason it seems that headache or migraine are rarely considered as additional entities to explore. Frontline medications used in the treatment of, for example, inflammatory pain, neuropathic pain and migraine (NSAIDs versus pregabalin/duloxetine versus triptans) reveal distinct differences in pathophysiology that partially explain this approach. Nevertheless, for many patients enduring chronic pain, regardless of aetiology, high unmet needs remain. By focusing more on commonalities shared between neuropathic pain and headache disorders such as migraine, drug discovery efforts could be spread more efficiently across a larger indication area. Here, some of the most commonly used models and methods employed within 'pain and migraine' drug development will be presented. Recent advances within these disciplines suggest that, with the addition of a few extra carefully chosen ancillary models and/or endpoints, the relative value in terms of resources used, reciprocal flow of information and net worth of a 'typical' package could be increased substantially for the pain and migraine fields.

Plasma levels of the endocannabinoid anandamide, related N-acylethanolamines and linoleic acid-derived oxylipins in patients with migraine

There is evidence that patients with migraine have deficient levels of the endogenous cannabinoid receptor ligand anandamide (AEA). It is not known, however, if this is a localised or generalised phenomenon. In the present study, levels of AEA, related N-acylethanolamines (NAEs) and linoleic acid-derived oxylipins have been measured in the blood of 26 healthy women and 38 women with migraine (26 with aura, 12 without aura) who were matched for age and body-mass index. Blood samples were taken on two occasions: the first sample near the start of the menstrual cycle (when present) and the second approximately fourteen days later. For a subset of migraine patients, two additional blood samples were taken, one during a migraine attack and one approximately 1 month later (to be at the same stage in the menstrual cycle, when present). NAEs and oxylipins were measured by liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. Twenty-nine lipids were quantified, of which 16 were found to have a high reproducibility of measurement. There were no significant differences in the levels of AEA, the related NAEs stearoylethanolamide and oleoylethanolamide or any of the nine linoleic acid-derived oxylipins measured either between migraine patients with vs. without aura, or between controls and migraine patients (after stratification to take into account whether or not the individuals had regular menstruation cycles) in either of the first two samples. Levels of linoleoylethanolamide were lower in the patients with vs. without aura on the second sample but not in the first sample, but the biological importance of this finding is unclear. Due to time-dependent increases in their concentrations ex vivo prior to centrifugation, AEA and oleoylethanolamide levels in the samples collected during migraine attacks were not analysed, but for the other fourteen lipids, there were no significant differences in plasma concentrations during migraine vs. one month later. It is concluded that migraine is not associated with a generalised (as opposed to localised) deficiency in these lipids.

Aumento da carga de dengue no Brasil e unidades federadas, 2000 e 2015: análise do Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

RESUMO: Objetivo: Descrever as principais métricas sobre dengue geradas pelo Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2015, para o Brasil e suas 27 unidades federadas, nos anos de 2000 e 2015. Métodos: As métricas descritas foram: taxas de incidência e de mortalidade por dengue, padronizadas por idade, years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD) e disability adjusted life years (DALY) (frequência absoluta e taxas padronizadas por idade). As métricas estimadas foram apresentadas com intervalos de incerteza (II 95%) para 2000 e 2015, acompanhadas da variação relativa percentual. Resultados: Verificou-se aumento de 232,7% no número de casos e de 639,0% no número de mortes entre os anos de 2000 e 2015 no país. A taxa de incidência variou 184,3% e a taxa de mortalidade mostrou-se baixa, mas com aumento de 500,0% no período avaliado. As taxas de YLL, YLD e DALY aumentaram 420,0, 187,2 e 266,1%, respectivamente. Em 2015, DALY foi semelhante entre mulheres e homens (21,9/100.000). O DALY aumentou mais que o dobro em todas as unidades da federação. Conclusão: O aumento acentuado de dengue ao longo dos anos associa-se à introdução e/ou circulação de um ou mais sorotipos do vírus e crescente proporção de pacientes acometidos pela forma grave da doença. Apesar da baixa taxa de mortalidade, a dengue contribui para considerável perda de anos saudáveis de vida no Brasil por acometer elevado número de pessoas, de todas as faixas etárias, ocasionando algum grau de incapacidade durante a infecção sintomática, e em razão dos óbitos, principalmente, em crianças.

A carga dos transtornos mentais e decorrentes do uso de substâncias psicoativas no Brasil: Estudo de Carga Global de Doença, 1990 e 2015

RESUMO: Introdução: Os transtornos mentais e decorrentes do uso de substâncias psicoativas (TM) são altamente prevalentes, gerando elevado custo social e econômico. Objetivo: Descrever a carga dos TM no Brasil e Unidades Federativas (UFs), em 1990 e 2015. Métodos: Estudo descritivo da carga de doença dos TM, por meio de estimativas padronizadas por idade do Global Burden of Disease Study 2015: anos de vida perdidos por morte prematura (YLL); anos vividos com incapacidade (YLD); e anos de vida perdidos por morte ou incapacidade (DALY=YLL+YLD). Resultados: No Brasil, apesar da baixa taxa de mortalidade, observa-se alta carga para os TM desde 1990, com elevados YLD. Em 2015, esses transtornos foram responsáveis por 9,5% do total de DALY, ocupando a 3ª e a 1ª posições na classificação de DALY e YLD, respectivamente, com destaque para os transtornos depressivos e de ansiedade. Os transtornos decorrentes do uso de drogas apresentaram a maior elevação das taxas de DALY entre 1990 e 2015 (37,1%). A maior proporção de DALY ocorreu na idade adulta e no sexo feminino. Não houve diferenças substanciais na carga dos TM entre as UFs. Conclusão: Apesar da baixa mortalidade, os TM são altamente incapacitantes, indicando necessidade de ações preventivas e protetivas, principalmente na atenção primária em saúde. A homogeneidade das estimativas em todas as UFs, obtidas a partir de estudos realizados majoritariamente nas regiões Sul e Sudeste, provavelmente não reflete a realidade do Brasil, e indica necessidade de estudos em todas as regiões do país.

Carga de doença por infecções do trato respiratório inferior no Brasil, 1990 a 2015: estimativas do estudo Global Burden of Disease 2015

RESUMO: Introdução: Infecções do trato respiratório inferior (ITRi) apresentam incidência e mortalidade significativas no mundo. Este artigo apresenta o impacto das ITRi na carga de doença, segundo as métricas utilizadas no estudo Global Burden of Disease 2015 (GBD 2015) para o Brasil, em 1990 e 2015. Métodos: Análise de estimativas do GBD 2015: anos de vida perdidos por morte prematura (YLLs), anos vividos com incapacidade (YLDs) e anos de vida perdidos por morte ou incapacidade (DALYs = YLLs + YLDs). Resultados: As ITRi foram a terceira causa de mortalidade no Brasil em 1990 e 2015, com 63,5 e 47,0 mortes/100 mil habitantes, respectivamente. Embora o número absoluto de óbitos tenha aumentado 26,8%, houve redução de 25,5% nas taxas de mortalidade padronizadas por idade, sendo a redução mais marcante em menores de 5 anos. Também houve redução progressiva da carga da doença, expressa em DALYs. Discussão: Apesar da redução da carga da doença no período, as ITRi foram importante causa de incapacidade e a terceira causa de mortes no Brasil em 2015. O aumento do número de óbitos ocorreu devido ao aumento e envelhecimento populacional. A redução das taxas de mortalidade acompanhou a melhora das condições socioeconômicas, do acesso mais amplo aos cuidados de saúde, da disponibilidade nacional de antibióticos e das políticas de vacinação adotadas no país. Conclusão: Apesar das dificuldades socioeconômicas vigentes, constatou-se uma redução progressiva da carga das ITRi, principalmente na mortalidade e na incapacidade, e entre os menores de cinco anos de idade.

Dengue virus serological prevalence and seroconversion rates in children and adults in Medellin, Colombia: implications for vaccine introduction

BACKGROUND

Dengue is an important public health problem worldwide. A vaccine has recently been licensed in some countries of Latin America and Asia. Recommendations for dengue vaccine introduction include endemicity and a high serological prevalence of dengue in the territories considering its introduction.

METHODS

A community-based survey was conducted to estimate dengue seroprevalence and age-specific seroconversion rates in a community in Medellin, Colombia, using a dengue serological test (IgG indirect ELISA). Residents were selected at random and were first screened for dengue infection; they were then followed over 2.5 years.

RESULTS

A total of 3684 individuals aged between 1 and 65 years participated in at least one survey. The overall dengue seroprevalence was 61%, and only 3.3% of seropositive subjects self-reported a past history of dengue. Among dengue virus (DENV)-naïve subjects with more than two visits (n=1002), the overall seroconversion rate was 8.7% (95% confidence interval 7.3-10.4) per 1000 person-months, over the study period. Overall, the mean age of DENV prevalent subjects was significantly higher than the mean age of seroconverted subjects. Specifically, DENV seropositivity over 70% was observed in participants over 21 years old. Serotype-specific plaque-reduction neutralization tests (PRNT) revealed that all four dengue serotypes were circulating, with DENV4 being most prevalent.

CONCLUSIONS

These laboratory-based findings could inform dengue vaccine decisions, as they provide age-specific seroprevalence and seroconversion data, evidencing permanent and ongoing dengue transmission in the study area. This study provides evidence for the existing rates of secondary and heterotypic responses, presenting a challenge that must be addressed adequately by the new vaccine candidates.

Manual therapy compared with physical therapy in patients with non-specific neck pain: a randomized controlled trial

Background

Manual therapy according to the School of Manual Therapy Utrecht (MTU) is a specific type of passive manual joint mobilization. MTU has not yet been systematically compared to other manual therapies and physical therapy. In this study the effectiveness of MTU is compared to physical therapy, particularly active exercise therapy (PT) in patients with non-specific neck pain.

Methods

Patients neck pain, aged between 18–70 years, were included in a pragmatic randomized controlled trial with a one-year follow-up. Primary outcome measures were global perceived effect and functioning (Neck Disability Index), the secondary outcome was pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale for Pain). Outcomes were measured at 3, 7, 13, 26 and 52 weeks. Multilevel analyses (intention-to-treat) were the primary analyses for overall between-group differences. Additional to the primary and secondary outcomes the number of treatment sessions of the MTU group and PT group was analyzed. Data were collected from September 2008 to February 2011.

Results

A total of 181 patients were included. Multilevel analyses showed no statistically significant overall differences at one year between the MTU and PT groups on any of the primary and secondary outcomes. The MTU group showed significantly lower treatment sessions compared to the PT group (respectively 3.1 vs. 5.9 after 7 weeks; 6.1 vs. 10.0 after 52 weeks).

Conclusions

Patients with neck pain improved in both groups without statistical significantly or clinically relevant differences between the MTU and PT groups during one-year follow-up.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00713843.

Determinants of Work Performance in Workers with Depression and Anxiety: A Cross-Sectional Study

Depression and anxiety are highly prevalent disorders with an impact on existential aspects of person’s life, including employment i.e., work performance (WP). In order to develop appropriate strategies, it is essential to identify determinants of WP. The objective of this study was to identify the built, social, attitudinal and health system-related environmental determinants of WP in workers with anxiety or depression in total (N = 1211) and regarding the level of disability. Hierarchical binary logistic regression was performed on data obtained from implementation of the WHO Model Disability Survey (MDS) in Chile in 2015. Hindering aspects of means of transportation and workplace, and the use of personal assistance were determinants of WP for all workers with anxiety or depression. Results differed with level of disability. Hindering aspects of means of transportation and workplace, and discrimination were determinants of WP for persons with mild to moderate disability, while hindering aspects of the workplace and dwelling, and the use of personal assistance were determinants of WP for persons with severe disability. Our results emphasize the need for a broader understanding of determinants of WP and the requirement for an integrative approach in developing both universal and specific strategies that go beyond workplace settings.

PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases: Ten years of progress in neglected tropical disease control and elimination … More or less

This year PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases (PLOS NTDs) celebrates its tenth anniversary following the publication of the first issue in 2007 [1]. When PLOS NTDs was founded, the framework of the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) as an alternative to “other diseases” (as they were then referred to in the Millennium Development Goals) was just getting started—especially for Africa [2, 3]. In the decade since, PLOS NTDs has overseen enormous successes in NTD control and elimination. Here, we want to briefly review the ten year progress made towards the control or elimination of the diseases now identified by the WHO as NTDs. Many of the details are highlighted in PLOS NTDs papers cited here, but the summary information is based on the recently released Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2015 (also launched with Gates Foundation support) that summarized past-decade changes in disease prevalence, mortality, or disability rates (from the years 2005 to 2015) [4–6], as well as the GBD Study 2013 that summarizes disease prevalence changes over a longer time horizon from 1990 to 2013 [7].

Applying a systems approach to thyroid physiology: Looking at the whole with a mitochondrial perspective instead of judging single TSH values or why we should know more about mitochondria to understand metabolism

Classical thinking in endocrine physiology squeezes our diagnostic handling into a simple negative feedback mechanism with a controller and a controlled variable. In the case of the thyroid this is reduced to TSH and fT3 and fT4, respectively. The setting of this tight notion has no free space for any additions. In this paper we want to challenge this model of limited application by proposing a construct based on a systems approach departing from two basic considerations. In first place since the majority of cases of thyroid disease develop and appear during life it has to be considered as an acquired condition. In the second place, our experience with the reversibility of morphological changes makes the autoimmune theory inconsistent.

While medical complexity can expand into the era of OMICS as well as into one where manipulations with the use of knock-outs and -ins are common in science, we have preferred to maintain a simple and practical approach. We will describe the interactions of iron, magnesium, zinc, selenium and coenzyme Q10 with the thyroid axis. The discourse will be then brought into the context of ovarian function, i.e. steroid hormone production. Finally the same elemental players will be presented in relation to the basic mitochondrial machinery that supports the endocrine.

We propose that an intact mitochondrial function can guard the normal endocrine function of both the thyroid as well as of the ovarian axis. The basic elements required for this function appear to be magnesium and iron. In the case of the thyroid, magnesium-ATP acts in iodine uptake and the heme protein peroxidase in thyroid hormone synthesis. A similar biochemical process is found in steroid synthesis with cholesterol uptake being the initial energy-dependent step and later the heme protein ferredoxin 1 which is required for steroid synthesis. Magnesium plays a central role in determining the clinical picture associated with thyroid disease and is also involved in maintaining fertility. With the aid of 3D sonography patients needing selenium and/or coenzyme Q10 can be easily identified. By this we firmly believe that physicians should know more about basic biochemistry and the way it fits into mitochondrial function in order to understand metabolism. Contemplating only TSH is highly reductionistic.

Outline

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Author's profiles and motivation for this analysis

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The philosophical alternatives in science and medicine

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Reductionism vs. systems approach in clinical thyroid disease guidelines

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The entry into complexity: the involvement of the musculoskeletal system

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Integrating East and West: teachings from Chinese Medicine and from evidence based medicine (EBM)

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Can a mathematical model represent complexity in the daily thyroid practice?

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How effective is thyroxine treatment?

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Resolving the situation of residual symptoms in treated patients with thyroid disease

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Importance of iron, zinc and magnesium in relation to thyroid function

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Putting together new concepts related to thyroid function for a systems approach

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Expanding our model into general aspects of medicine

Comparisons of periodontal regenerative therapies: A meta-analysis on the long-term efficacy

AIM

We conducted a meta-analysis for the long-term differences in treatment outcomes between periodontal regeneration therapies and flap operation.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted using the EMBASE, PubMed and Cochrane databases up to June 2016. Treatment outcomes were changes in probing pocket depth and clinical attachment level. We extracted data reported at different time points after periodontal surgery and incorporated all data into the same model. The restricted cubic spline regression was used to estimate the non-linear trend in treatment outcomes. As some studies reported outcomes at multiple time points, we considered several correlation structures for data reported by the same study.

RESULTS

A total of 52 randomized controlled trials were included in our longitudinal meta-analysis. The follow-up length ranged from 0.5 year to 10 years. The trends in the treatment outcomes were similar under different correlation structures. Enamel matrix derivatives (EMD) and guided tissue regeneration (GTR) achieved greater probing pocket depth (PPD) reduction and clinical attachment level (CAL) gain than flap operation (FO) in the long-term follow up, but no differences were found between EMD and GTR.

CONCLUSION

Compared with FO, periodontal regeneration surgeries achieved greater PPD reduction and gain in CAL after 1 year, and its effects may last for 5-10 years.

Direct and Indirect Costs of Asthma Management in Greece: An Expert Panel Approach

OBJECTIVE

Asthma is a major cause of morbidity and mortality and is associated with significant economic burden worldwide. The objectives of this study were to map current resource use associated with the disease management and to estimate the annual direct and indirect costs per adult patient with asthma.

METHODS

A Delphi panel with seven leading pulmonologists was conducted. A semistructured questionnaire was developed to elicit data on resource use and treatment patterns. Unit costs from official, published sources were subsequently assigned to resource use to estimate direct medical costs. Indirect costs were estimated as number of work loss days. Cost base year was 2015, and the perspective adopted was that of the National Organization of Health Care Services Provision, as well as the societal.

RESULTS

Patients with asthma are mainly managed by pulmonologists (71.4%) and secondarily by general practitioners and internists (28.6%). The annual cost of managing exacerbations was estimated at €273.1, while maintenance costs were estimated at €1,100.2 per year. Total costs of managing asthma per patient per year were estimated at €2,281.8, 64.4% of which represented direct medical costs. Of the direct costs, pharmaceutical treatment was the key driver, accounting for 63.9 and 41.2% of direct and total costs, respectively. Direct non-medical costs (patient travel and waiting time) were estimated at €152.3. Indirect costs accounted for 28.9% of total costs.

CONCLUSION

Asthma is a chronic condition, the management of which constrains the already limited Greek health care resources. The increasing prevalence of the disease raises concerns as it could translate per patient costs into a significant burden for the Greek health care system. Thus, the prevention, self-management, and improved quality of care for asthma should find a place in the health policy agenda in Greece.

Kappa opioid receptor antagonists: A possible new class of therapeutics for migraine prevention

Background Stress is the most commonly reported migraine trigger. Dynorphin, an endogenous opioid peptide acting preferentially at kappa opioid receptors (KORs), is a key mediator of stress responses. The aim of this study was to use an injury-free rat model of functional cephalic pain with features of migraine and medication overuse headache (MOH) to test the possible preventive benefit of KOR blockade on stress-induced cephalic pain. Methods Following sumatriptan priming to model MOH, rats were hyper-responsive to environmental stress, demonstrating delayed cephalic and extracephalic allodynia and increased levels of CGRP in the jugular blood, consistent with commonly observed clinical outcomes during migraine. Nor-binaltorphimine (nor-BNI), a long-acting KOR antagonist or CYM51317, a novel short-acting KOR antagonist, were given systemically either during sumatriptan priming or immediately before environmental stress challenge. The effects of KOR blockade in the amygdala on stress-induced allodynia was determined by administration of nor-BNI into the right or left central nucleus of the amygdala (CeA). Results KOR blockade prevented both stress-induced allodynia and increased plasma CGRP. Stress increased dynorphin content and phosphorylated KOR in both the left and right CeA in sumatriptan-primed rats. However, KOR blockade only in the right CeA prevented stress-induced cephalic allodynia as well as extracephalic allodynia, measured in either the right or left hindpaws. U69,593, a KOR agonist, given into the right, but not the left, CeA, produced allodynia selectively in sumatriptan-primed rats. Both stress and U69,593-induced allodynia were prevented by right CeA U0126, a mitogen-activated protein kinase inhibitor, presumably acting downstream of KOR. Conclusions Our data reveal a novel lateralized KOR circuit that mediated stress-induced cutaneous allodynia and increased plasma CGRP in an injury-free model of functional cephalic pain with features of migraine and medication overuse headache. Selective, small molecule, orally available, and reversible KOR antagonists are currently in development and may represent a novel class of preventive therapeutics for migraine.

Inequalities in financial risk protection in Bangladesh: an assessment of universal health coverage

Background

Financial risk protection and equity are major components of universal health coverage (UHC), which is defined as ensuring access to health services for all citizens without any undue financial burden. We investigated progress towards UHC financial risk indicators and assessed variability of inequalities in financial risk protection indicators by wealth quintile. We further examined the determinants of different financial hardship indicators related to healthcare costs.

Methods

A cross-sectional, three-stage probability survey was conducted in Bangladesh, which collected information from 1600 households from August to November 2011. Catastrophic health payments, impoverishment, and distress financing (borrowing or selling assets) were treated as financial hardship indicators in UHC. Poisson regression models were used to identify the determinants of catastrophic payment, impoverishment and distress financing separately. Slope, relative and concentration indices of inequalities were used to assess wealth-based inequalities in financial hardship indicators.

Results

The study found that around 9% of households incurred catastrophic payments, 7% faced distress financing, and 6% experienced impoverishing health payments in Bangladesh. Slope index of inequality indicated that the incidence of catastrophic health payment and distress financing among the richest households were 12 and 9 percentage points lower than the poorest households respectively. Multivariable Poisson regression models revealed that all UHC financial hardship indicators were significantly higher among household that had members who received inpatient care or were in the poorest quintile. The presence of a member with chronic illness in a household increased the risk of impoverishment by nearly double.

Conclusion

This study identified a greater inequality in UHC financial hardship indicators. Rich households in Bangladesh were facing disproportionately less financial hardship than the poor ones. Households can be protected from financial hardship associated with healthcare costs by implementing risk pooling mechanism, increasing GDP spending on health, and properly monitoring subsidized programs in public health facilities.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12939-017-0556-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.