The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

Geography and availability of natural habitat determine whether cropland intensification or expansion is more detrimental to biodiversity

To mitigate biodiversity loss from agriculture, intensification is often promoted as an alternative to farmland expansion. However, its local impacts remain debated. We assess globally the responses of three biodiversity metrics-species richness, total abundance and relative community abundance-weighted average range size (RCAR), a proxy for biotic homogenization-to land conversion and yield increases. Our models predict a median species loss of 11% in primary vegetation in modified landscapes, and of 25% and 40% in cropland within natural and modified landscapes, respectively. Land conversion also reduces abundance and increases biotic homogenization, with impacts varying by geographic region and history of human modification. However, increasing yields changes biodiversity as well, including in adjacent primary vegetation, with effects dependent on crop, region, biodiversity metric and natural habitat cover. Ultimately, neither expansion nor intensification consistently benefits biodiversity. Intensification has better species richness outcomes in 29%, 83%, 64% and 57% of maize, soybean, wheat and rice landscapes, respectively, whereas expansion performs better in the remaining areas. In terms of abundance and RCAR, both expansion and intensification can outperform the other depending on landscape. Therefore, minimizing local biodiversity loss requires a context-dependent balance between expansion and intensification, while avoiding expansion in unmodified landscapes.

Bumble Bee Probability of Occurrence Responds to Interactions Between Local and Landscape Land Use, Climatic Niche Properties and Climate Change

Insect biodiversity is changing rapidly, driven by a suite of pressures, notably land use, land-use intensification and increasingly climate change. We lack large-scale evidence on how land use and climate change interact to drive insect biodiversity changes. We assess bumble bee responses to interactive effects of land use and climate pressures across North America and Europe. The probability of occurrence increases in landscapes with a higher proportion of natural habitat and a shorter history of human disturbance. Responses to climate warming relative to historical conditions are weakly negative in natural habitats but positive in human land uses, while human land use reduces the probability of occurrence most in the centre of species' temperature niches. We estimate that the combined pressures have reduced bumble bee probability of occurrence by 44% across sampled natural habitats and 55% across human land uses, highlighting the pervasive influence that human pressures have had on biodiversity across habitats.

Decline in global biodiversity intactness over the past two decades

Knowledge of the dynamics of biodiversity intactness and its spatial differentiation over different geographic regions of the world is crucial for the improved design of effective biodiversity conservation strategies. However, comprehensive investigations of the multiple indicators of biodiversity intactness across several spatial scales are lacking. The current study used an annual time series (2000-2020) of the biodiversity intactness index (BII) to investigate the mean magnitude, temporal trajectory, and relative changes in biodiversity intactness at the national, regional, and global levels. Global mean magnitude of BII was estimated to be 76 ± 16 % between 2000 and 2020, accompanied by the highly diverse BII variations across geographic regions. There has been a gradual decrease in biodiversity intactness over the past 20 years, with the global mean BII trend of -0.3 ± 1.9 %/decade. Africa and Europe have the largest decrease and increase in BII of -1.4 ± 2.2 %/decade and 1.0 ± 1.7 %/decade, respectively. The countries with the top ten BII parameters are mainly located in Africa and Asia, whereas the opposite is true in Europe. The top 10 countries with positive BII trends were mainly in Europe (70 %), followed by Africa (80 %) and Asia (20 %). There was a negative difference between the global mean BII for 2011-2020 and 2000-2010, as evidenced by the relative change in BII of 4.1 %. This study provides an elaborate interpretation of the current status and possible future paths of abundance-based biodiversity intactness at multiple spatial scales, which is beneficial in elucidating biodiversity intactness dynamics and potentially supports biodiversity conservation.

Bending the curve of biodiversity loss requires a 'satnav' for nature

Georgina Mace proposed bending the curve of biodiversity loss as a fitting ambition for the Convention on Biological Diversity. The new Global Biodiversity Monitoring Framework (GBMF) may increase the chances of meeting the goals and targets in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF), which requires bending the curve. To meet the outcome goals of KMGBF, the GBMF should support adaptive policy responses to the state of biodiversity, which in turn requires a 'satnav' for nature. The twin pillars of such a satnav are (i) models to predict expected future outcomes of today's choices; and (ii) rapid feedback from monitoring to enable course corrections and model improvement. These same elements will also empower organizations to ensure that their actions are truly nature-positive, but they are not yet written into the GBMF. Without a satnav, society will effectively have to try to find its way to the outcome goals by looking in the rear-view mirror that the current headline indicators provide. Drawing contrasts and parallels with climate modelling, I discuss challenges for indicators, models, data and research culture that must be overcome if we are to bend the curve, and suggest ways forward.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

Impact of Crop Type on Biodiversity Globally

The negative impact of agricultural land on biodiversity is widely recognized. However, there remains a knowledge gap regarding the role of different crop types in maintaining biodiversity within the agricultural landscape. By extracting biodiversity data from global datasets and classifying different crop types, we quantified the contribution of different crop types to biodiversity. Our results indicate that biodiversity levels vary widely among crop types. We found a general loss of biodiversity when natural vegetation is converted to agricultural land, and highest losses in fiber crops, cereals and oil crops, and least in other crops (such as coffee or cocoa) and in mixed crops. In general, perennial crops retain more biodiversity than annual crops. Losses of biodiversity can be mitigated through mixed cropping of multiple crop types, especially by combining annual and perennial crops. The negative impact of converting natural vegetation to agriculture is greater in tropical than in nontropical areas, and hence, the import of commodities from these biodiversity-rich regions may be particularly detrimental. Given the ongoing increase in biodiversity losses from global intensification and expansion of agricultural land, maintaining or restoring natural vegetation, rating the crop-type-specific biodiversity, diversifying crops, and preferring perennial over annual crops, particularly in the tropics, need to be better considered and implemented in global agri-environmental schemes.

Impacts of the global food system on terrestrial biodiversity from land use and climate change

The global food system is a key driver of land-use and climate change which in turn drive biodiversity change. Developing sustainable food systems is therefore critical to reversing biodiversity loss. We use the multi-regional input-output model EXIOBASE to estimate the biodiversity impacts embedded within the global food system in 2011. Using models that capture regional variation in the sensitivity of biodiversity both to land use and climate change, we calculate the land-driven and greenhouse gas-driven footprints of food using two metrics of biodiversity: local species richness and rarity-weighted species richness. We show that the footprint of land area underestimates biodiversity impact in more species-rich regions and that our metric of rarity-weighted richness places a greater emphasis on biodiversity costs in Central and South America. We find that methane emissions are responsible for 70% of the overall greenhouse gas-driven biodiversity footprint and that, in several regions, emissions from a single year's food production are associated with global biodiversity loss equivalent to 2% or more of that region's total land-driven biodiversity loss. The measures we present are relatively simple to calculate and could be incorporated into decision-making and environmental impact assessments by governments and businesses.

Regional invasion history and land use shape the prevalence of non-native species in local assemblages

The ecological impact of non-native species arises from their establishment in local assemblages. However, the rates of non-native spread in new regions and their determinants have not been comprehensively studied. Here, we combined global databases documenting the occurrence of non-native species and residence of non-native birds, mammals, and vascular plants at regional and local scales to describe how the likelihood of non-native occurrence and their proportion in local assemblages relate with their residence time and levels of human usage in different ecosystems. Our findings reveal that local non-native occurrence generally increases with residence time. Colonization is most rapid in croplands and urban areas, while it is slower and variable in natural or semi-natural ecosystems. Notably, non-native occurrence continues to rise even 200 years after introduction, especially for birds and vascular plants, and in other land-use types rather than croplands and urban areas. The impact of residence time on non-native proportions is significant only for mammals. We conclude that the continental exchange of biotas requires considerable time for effects to manifest at the local scale across taxa and land-use types. The unpredictability of future impacts, implied by the slow spread of non-native species, strengthens the call for stronger regulations on the exchange of non-native species to reduce the long-lasting invasion debt looming on ecosystems' future.

Species-level correlates of land-use responses and climate-change sensitivity in terrestrial vertebrates

Land-use and climate change are major pressures on terrestrial biodiversity. Species' extinction risk and responses to human pressures relate to ecological traits and other characteristics in some clades. However, large-scale comparative assessments of the associations between traits and responses to multiple human pressures across multiple clades are needed. We investigated whether a set of ecological characteristics that are commonly measured across terrestrial vertebrates (ecological traits and geographic range area) are associated with species' responses to different land-use types and species' likely sensitivity to climate change. We aimed to test whether generalizable patterns in response to these pressures arise across both pressures and across vertebrate clades, which could inform assessments of the global signature of human pressures on vertebrate biodiversity and guide conservation efforts. At the species level, we investigated associations between land-use responses and ecological characteristics with a space-for-time substitution approach, making use of the PREDICTS database. We investigated associations between ecological characteristics and expected climate-change sensitivity, estimated from properties of species realized climatic niches. Among the characteristics we considered, 3 were consistently associated with strong land-use responses and high climate-change sensitivity across terrestrial vertebrate classes: narrow geographic range, narrow habitat breadth, and specialization on natural habitats (which described whether a species occurs in artificial habitats or not). The associations of other traits with species' land-use responses and climate-change sensitivity often depended on species' class and land-use type, highlighting an important degree of context dependency. In all classes, invertebrate eaters and fruit and nectar eaters tended to be negatively affected in disturbed land-use types, whereas invertebrate-eating and plant- and seed-eating birds were estimated to be more sensitive to climate change, raising concerns about the continuation of ecological processes sustained by these species under global changes. Our results highlight a consistently higher sensitivity of narrowly distributed species and habitat specialists to land-use and climate change, which provides support for capturing such characteristics in large-scale vulnerability assessments.

Pollinator-mediated effects of landscape-scale land use on grassland plant community composition and ecosystem functioning - seven hypotheses

Environmental change is disrupting mutualisms between organisms worldwide. Reported declines in insect populations and changes in pollinator community compositions in response to land use and other environmental drivers have put the spotlight on the need to conserve pollinators. While this is often motivated by their role in supporting crop yields, the role of pollinators for reproduction and resulting taxonomic and functional assembly in wild plant communities has received less attention. Recent findings suggest that observed and experimental gradients in pollinator availability can affect plant community composition, but we know little about when such shifts are to be expected, or the impact they have on ecosystem functioning. Correlations between plant traits related to pollination and plant traits related to other important ecosystem functions, such as productivity, nitrogen uptake or palatability to herbivores, lead us to expect non-random shifts in ecosystem functioning in response to changes in pollinator communities. At the same time, ecological and evolutionary processes may counteract these effects of pollinator declines, limiting changes in plant community composition, and in ecosystem functioning. Despite calls to investigate community- and ecosystem-level impacts of reduced pollination, the study of pollinator effects on plants has largely been confined to impacts on plant individuals or single-species populations. With this review we aim to break new ground by bringing together aspects of landscape ecology, ecological and evolutionary plant-insect interactions, and biodiversity-ecosystem functioning research, to generate new ideas and hypotheses about the ecosystem-level consequences of pollinator declines in response to land-use change, using grasslands as a focal system. Based on an integrated set of seven hypotheses, we call for more research investigating the putative pollinator-mediated links between landscape-scale land use and ecosystem functioning. In particular, future research should use combinations of experimental and observational approaches to assess the effects of changes in pollinator communities over multiple years and across species on plant communities and on trait distributions both within and among species.

The water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus in the Danube River Basin: Exploring scenarios and implications of maize irrigation

The Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem (WEFE) nexus concept postulates that water, energy production, agriculture and ecosystems are closely interlinked. In transboundary river basins, different sectors and countries compete for shared water resources. In the Danube River Basin (DRB), possible expansion of agricultural irrigation is expected to intensify water competition in the WEFE nexus, however, trade-offs have not yet been quantified. Here, we quantified trade-offs between agriculture, hydropower and (aquatic) ecosystems in the DRB resulting from maize irrigation when irrigation water was withdrawn from rivers. Using the process-based hydro-agroecological model PROMET, we simulated three maize scenarios for the period 2011-2020: (i) rainfed; (ii) irrigated near rivers without considering environmental flow requirements (EFRs); (iii) irrigated near rivers with water abstractions complying with EFRs. Maize yield and water use efficiency (WUE) increased by 101-125 % and 29-34 % under irrigation compared to rainfed cultivation. Irrigation water withdrawals from rivers resulted in moderate to severe discharge reductions and, without consideration of EFRs, to substantial EFR infringements. Annual hydropower production decreased by 1.0-1.9 % due to discharge reductions. However, the financial turnover increase in agriculture (5.8-7.2 billion €/a) was two orders of magnitude larger than the financial turnover decrease in hydropower (23.9-47.8 million €/a), making water more profitable in agriculture. Irrigation WUE was highest for EFR-compliant irrigation, indicating that maintaining EFRs is economically beneficial and that improving WUE is key to attenuating nexus water competition. Current maize production could be met on the most productive 35-41 % of current maize cropland under irrigation, allowing 59-65 % to be returned to nature without loss of production. Maize priority areas were on fertile lowlands near major rivers, while biodiversity priority areas were on marginal cropland of highest biodiversity intactness. Our quantitative trade-off analysis can help identifying science-based pathways for sustainable WEFE nexus management in the DRB, also in light of climate change.

The bii4africa dataset of faunal and floral population intactness estimates across Africa's major land uses

Sub-Saharan Africa is under-represented in global biodiversity datasets, particularly regarding the impact of land use on species' population abundances. Drawing on recent advances in expert elicitation to ensure data consistency, 200 experts were convened using a modified-Delphi process to estimate 'intactness scores': the remaining proportion of an 'intact' reference population of a species group in a particular land use, on a scale from 0 (no remaining individuals) to 1 (same abundance as the reference) and, in rare cases, to 2 (populations that thrive in human-modified landscapes). The resulting bii4africa dataset contains intactness scores representing terrestrial vertebrates (tetrapods: ±5,400 amphibians, reptiles, birds, mammals) and vascular plants (±45,000 forbs, graminoids, trees, shrubs) in sub-Saharan Africa across the region's major land uses (urban, cropland, rangeland, plantation, protected, etc.) and intensities (e.g., large-scale vs smallholder cropland). This dataset was co-produced as part of the Biodiversity Intactness Index for Africa Project. Additional uses include assessing ecosystem condition; rectifying geographic/taxonomic biases in global biodiversity indicators and maps; and informing the Red List of Ecosystems.

Biodiversity loss through cropland displacement for urban expansion in China

As a result of rapid economic development, urban expansion reduced the cropland in China. To secure the food supply, cropland displacement to maintain the quantity and quality of cropland has been implemented. Here, we quantified the biodiversity losses due to cropland displacement resulting from urban expansion from a telecoupling perspective in China from 1980 to 2020. A comprehensive multimodel assessment demonstrated that the indirect biodiversity losses due to cropland displacement resulting from urban expansion were approximately 2 to 3 times higher than its direct biodiversity losses, at a total loss of approximately 0.6 % to 1.0 %, as indicated by three biodiversity indicators. Displaced cropland with a higher biodiversity cost but lower cropland productivity is the main reason for the excessive indirect losses and suggests that socioecological processes may be detrimental to the synergistic benefits of the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for food security and terrestrial biodiversity. This study also identified source-sink hotspots for indirect biodiversity losses, which can contribute to improving biodiversity conservation, optimizing the spatial distribution of cropland and thus enhancing socioecological system sustainability.

Integrating databases for spatial analysis of parasite-host associations and the novel Brazilian dataset

Incomplete information on parasites, their associated hosts, and their precise geographical location hampers the ability to predict disease emergence in Brazil, a continental-sized country characterised by significant regional disparities. Here, we demonstrate how the NCBI Nucleotide and GBIF databases can be used as complementary databases to study spatially georeferenced parasite-host associations. We also provide a comprehensive dataset of parasites associated with mammal species that occur in Brazil, the Brazilian Mammal Parasite Occurrence Data (BMPO). This dataset integrates wild mammal species' morphological and life-history traits, zoonotic parasite status, and zoonotic microparasite transmission modes. Through meta-networks, comprising interconnected host species linked by shared zoonotic microparasites, we elucidate patterns of zoonotic microparasite dissemination. This approach contributes to wild animal and zoonoses surveillance, identifying and targeting host species accountable for disproportionate levels of parasite sharing within distinct biomes. Moreover, our novel dataset contributes to the refinement of models concerning disease emergence and parasite distribution among host species.

Land use diversification may mitigate on-site land use impacts on mammal populations and assemblages

Land use is a major cause of biodiversity decline worldwide. Agricultural and forestry diversification measures, such as the inclusion of natural elements or diversified crop types, may reduce impacts on biodiversity. However, the extent to which such measures may compensate for the negative impacts of land use remains unknown. To fill that gap, we synthesised data from 99 studies that recorded mammal populations or assemblages in natural reference sites and in cropland and forest plantations, with or without diversification measures. We quantified the responses to diversification measures based on individual species abundance, species richness and assemblage intactness as quantified by the mean species abundance indicator. In cropland with natural elements, mammal species abundance and richness were, on average, similar to natural conditions, while in cropland without natural elements they were reduced by 28% and 34%, respectively. We found that mammal species richness was comparable between diversified forest plantations and natural reference sites, and 32% lower in plantations without natural elements. In both cropland and plantations, assemblage intactness was reduced compared with natural reference conditions, but the reduction was smaller if diversification measures were in place. In addition, we found that responses to land use were modified by species traits and environmental context. While habitat specialist populations were reduced in cropland without diversification and in forest plantations, habitat generalists benefited. Furthermore, assemblages were impacted more by land use in tropical regions and landscapes containing a larger share of (semi)natural habitat compared with temperate regions and more converted landscapes. Given that mammal assemblage intactness is reduced also when diversification measures are in place, special attention should be directed to species that suffer from land use impacts. That said, our results suggest potential for reconciling land use and mammal conservation, provided that the diversification measures do not compromise yield.

Soil Micro-eukaryotic Diversity Patterns Along Elevation Gradient Are Best Estimated by Increasing the Number of Elevation Steps Rather than Within Elevation Band Replication

The development of high-throughput sequencing (HTS) of environmental DNA (eDNA) has stimulated the study of soil microbial diversity patterns and drivers at all scales. However, given the heterogeneity of soils, a challenge is to define effective and efficient sampling protocols that allow sound comparison with other records, especially vegetation. In studies of elevational diversity pattern, a trade-off is choosing between replication within elevation bands vs. sampling more elevation bands. We addressed this question for soil protists along an elevation gradient on Mt. Asahi, Hokkaido, Japan. We compared two sampling approaches: (1) the replicate strategy (five replicates at six elevational bands, total = 30) and (2) the transect strategy (one sample in each of 16 different elevational bands). Despite a nearly twofold lower sampling effort, the transect strategy yielded congruent results compared to the replicate strategy for the estimation of elevational alpha diversity pattern: the regression coefficients between diversity indices and elevation did not differ between the two options. Furthermore, for a given total number of samples, gamma diversity estimated across the entire transect was higher when sampling more elevational bands as compared to replication from fewer elevational bands. Beta diversity (community composition turnover) was lower within a given elevational band than between adjacent bands and increased with elevation distance. In redundancy analyses, soil organic matter-related variable (the first principal component of soil organic matter, water content, total organic carbon, and nitrogen by whom were highly correlated) and elevation best explained elevational beta diversity pattern for both sampling approaches. Taken together, our results suggest that sampling a single plot per elevation band will be sufficient to obtain a good estimate of soil micro-eukaryotic diversity patterns along elevation gradients. This study demonstrated the effectiveness of the transect strategy in estimating diversity patterns along elevation gradients which is instructive for future environmental or even experimental studies. While not advocating for completely replacing replication-based sampling practices, it is important to note that both replicate and transect strategies have their merits and can be employed based on specific research goals and resource limitations.

Key tropical crops at risk from pollinator loss due to climate change and land use

Insect pollinator biodiversity is changing rapidly, with potential consequences for the provision of crop pollination. However, the role of land use-climate interactions in pollinator biodiversity changes, as well as consequent economic effects via changes in crop pollination, remains poorly understood. We present a global assessment of the interactive effects of climate change and land use on pollinator abundance and richness and predictions of the risk to crop pollination from the inferred changes. Using a dataset containing 2673 sites and 3080 insect pollinator species, we show that the interactive combination of agriculture and climate change is associated with large reductions in insect pollinators. As a result, it is expected that the tropics will experience the greatest risk to crop production from pollinator losses. Localized risk is highest and predicted to increase most rapidly, in regions of sub-Saharan Africa, northern South America, and Southeast Asia. Via pollinator loss alone, climate change and agricultural land use could be a risk to human well-being.

An operational workflow for producing periodic estimates of species occupancy at national scales

Policy makers require high-level summaries of biodiversity change. However, deriving such summaries from raw biodiversity data is a complex process involving several intermediary stages. In this paper, we describe an operational workflow for generating annual estimates of species occupancy at national scales from raw species occurrence data, which can be used to construct a range of policy-relevant biodiversity indicators. We describe the workflow in detail: from data acquisition, data assessment and data manipulation, through modelling, model evaluation, application and dissemination. At each stage, we draw on our experience developing and applying the workflow for almost a decade to outline the challenges that analysts might face. These challenges span many areas of ecology, taxonomy, data science, computing and statistics. In our case, the principal output of the workflow is annual estimates of occupancy, with measures of uncertainty, for over 5000 species in each of several defined 'regions' (e.g. countries, protected areas, etc.) of the UK from 1970 to 2019. This data product corresponds closely to the notion of a species distribution Essential Biodiversity Variable (EBV). Throughout the paper, we highlight methodologies that might not be applicable outside of the UK and suggest alternatives. We also highlight areas where the workflow can be improved; in particular, methods are needed to mitigate and communicate the risk of bias arising from the lack of representativeness that is typical of biodiversity data. Finally, we revisit the 'ideal' and 'minimal' criteria for species distribution EBVs laid out in previous contributions and pose some outstanding questions that should be addressed as a matter of priority. Going forward, we hope that this paper acts as a template for research groups around the world seeking to develop similar data products.

Looking back on biodiversity change: lessons for the road ahead

Estimating biodiversity change across the planet in the context of widespread human modification is a critical challenge. Here, we review how biodiversity has changed in recent decades across scales and taxonomic groups, focusing on four diversity metrics: species richness, temporal turnover, spatial beta-diversity and abundance. At local scales, change across all metrics includes many examples of both increases and declines and tends to be centred around zero, but with higher prevalence of declining trends in beta-diversity (increasing similarity in composition across space or biotic homogenization) and abundance. The exception to this pattern is temporal turnover, with changes in species composition through time observed in most local assemblages. Less is known about change at regional scales, although several studies suggest that increases in richness are more prevalent than declines. Change at the global scale is the hardest to estimate accurately, but most studies suggest extinction rates are probably outpacing speciation rates, although both are elevated. Recognizing this variability is essential to accurately portray how biodiversity change is unfolding, and highlights how much remains unknown about the magnitude and direction of multiple biodiversity metrics at different scales. Reducing these blind spots is essential to allow appropriate management actions to be deployed. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

CORRIGENDUM

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1002/ece3.2579.].

Ecosystem degradation and the spread of Covid-19

The linkages between the emergence of zoonotic diseases and ecosystem degradation have been widely acknowledged by the scientific community and policy makers. In this paper we investigate the relationship between human overexploitation of natural resources, represented by the Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production Index (HANPP) and the spread of Covid-19 cases during the first pandemic wave in 730 regions of 63 countries worldwide. Using a Bayesian estimation technique, we highlight the significant role of HANPP as a driver of Covid-19 diffusion, besides confirming the well-known impact of population size and the effects of other socio-economic variables. We believe that these findings could be relevant for policy makers in their effort towards a more sustainable intensive agriculture and responsible urbanisation.

Past, present, and future of the Living Planet Index

As we enter the next phase of international policy commitments to halt biodiversity loss (e.g., Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework), biodiversity indicators will play an important role in forming the robust basis upon which targeted, and time sensitive conservation actions are developed. Population trend indicators are one of the most powerful tools in biodiversity monitoring due to their responsiveness to changes over short timescales and their ability to aggregate species trends from global down to sub-national or even local scale. We consider how the project behind one of the foremost population level indicators - the Living Planet Index - has evolved over the last 25 years, its value to the field of biodiversity monitoring, and how its components have portrayed a compelling account of the changing status of global biodiversity through its application at policy, research and practice levels. We explore ways the project can develop to enhance our understanding of the state of biodiversity and share lessons learned to inform indicator development and mobilise action.

Road Infrastructure and Primate Conservation: Introducing the Global Primate Roadkill Database

As road infrastructure networks rapidly expand globally, especially in the tropics, previously continuous habitats are being fragmented, resulting in more frequent wildlife-vehicle collisions (WVC). Primates are widespread throughout many sub-/tropical countries, and as their habitats are fragmented, they are increasingly at risk of WVC. We created the Global Primate Roadkill Database (GPRD), the largest available standardized database of primate roadkill incidents. We obtained data from published papers, un-published and citizen science databases, anecdotal reports, news reports, and social media posts. Here, we describe the collection methods for the GPRD and present the most up-to-date version of the database in full. For each primate roadkill incident, we recorded the species killed, the exact location, and the year and month the roadkill was observed. At the time of publication, the GPRD includes 2862 individual primate roadkill records from 41 countries. As primates range in more than twice as many countries, the absence of data from these countries is not necessarily indicative of a lack of primate vehicular collisions. Given the value of these data for addressing both local and global research questions, we encourage conservationists and citizen scientists to contribute to the GPRD so that, together, we can better understand the impact road infrastructure has on primates and evaluate measures which may help mitigate risk-prone areas or species.

Quantitative evidence synthesis: a practical guide on meta-analysis, meta-regression, and publication bias tests for environmental sciences

Meta-analysis is a quantitative way of synthesizing results from multiple studies to obtain reliable evidence of an intervention or phenomenon. Indeed, an increasing number of meta-analyses are conducted in environmental sciences, and resulting meta-analytic evidence is often used in environmental policies and decision-making. We conducted a survey of recent meta-analyses in environmental sciences and found poor standards of current meta-analytic practice and reporting. For example, only ~ 40% of the 73 reviewed meta-analyses reported heterogeneity (variation among effect sizes beyond sampling error), and publication bias was assessed in fewer than half. Furthermore, although almost all the meta-analyses had multiple effect sizes originating from the same studies, non-independence among effect sizes was considered in only half of the meta-analyses. To improve the implementation of meta-analysis in environmental sciences, we here outline practical guidance for conducting a meta-analysis in environmental sciences. We describe the key concepts of effect size and meta-analysis and detail procedures for fitting multilevel meta-analysis and meta-regression models and performing associated publication bias tests. We demonstrate a clear need for environmental scientists to embrace multilevel meta-analytic models, which explicitly model dependence among effect sizes, rather than the commonly used random-effects models. Further, we discuss how reporting and visual presentations of meta-analytic results can be much improved by following reporting guidelines such as PRISMA-EcoEvo (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses for Ecology and Evolutionary Biology). This paper, along with the accompanying online tutorial, serves as a practical guide on conducting a complete set of meta-analytic procedures (i.e., meta-analysis, heterogeneity quantification, meta-regression, publication bias tests and sensitivity analysis) and also as a gateway to more advanced, yet appropriate, methods.

The impact of land use on non-native species incidence and number in local assemblages worldwide

While the regional distribution of non-native species is increasingly well documented for some taxa, global analyses of non-native species in local assemblages are still missing. Here, we use a worldwide collection of assemblages from five taxa - ants, birds, mammals, spiders and vascular plants - to assess whether the incidence, frequency and proportions of naturalised non-native species depend on type and intensity of land use. In plants, assemblages of primary vegetation are least invaded. In the other taxa, primary vegetation is among the least invaded land-use types, but one or several other types have equally low levels of occurrence, frequency and proportions of non-native species. High land use intensity is associated with higher non-native incidence and frequency in primary vegetation, while intensity effects are inconsistent for other land-use types. These findings highlight the potential dual role of unused primary vegetation in preserving native biodiversity and in conferring resistance against biological invasions.

Socio-ecological factors shape the distribution of a cultural keystone species in Malaysian Borneo

Biophysical and socio-cultural factors have jointly shaped the distribution of global biodiversity, yet relatively few studies have quantitatively assessed the influence of social and ecological landscapes on wildlife distributions. We sought to determine whether social and ecological covariates shape the distribution of a cultural keystone species, the bearded pig (Sus barbatus). Drawing on a dataset of 295 total camera trap locations and 25,755 trap days across 18 field sites and three years in Sabah and Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo, we fitted occupancy models that incorporated socio-cultural covariates and ecological covariates hypothesized to influence bearded pig occupancy. We found that all competitive occupancy models included both socio-cultural and ecological covariates. Moreover, we found quantitative evidence supporting Indigenous pig hunting rights: predicted pig occupancy was positively associated with predicted high levels of Indigenous pig-hunting groups in low-accessibility areas, and predicted pig occupancy was positively associated with predicted medium and low levels of Indigenous pig-hunting groups in high-accessibility areas. These results suggest that bearded pig populations in Malaysian Borneo should be managed with context-specific strategies, promoting Indigenous pig hunting rights. We also provide important baseline information on bearded pig occupancy levels prior to the 2020-2021 outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF), which caused social and ecological concerns after mass dieoffs of bearded pigs in Borneo. The abstract provided in Malay is in the Supplementary file.

Experiments are needed to quantify the main causes of insect decline

Sparked by reports of insect declines of unexpected extent, there has been a surge in the compilation and analysis of insect time series data. While this effort has led to valuable databases, disagreement remains as to whether, where and why insects are declining. The 'why' question is particularly important because successful insect conservation will need to address the most important drivers of decline. Despite repeated calls for more long-term data, new time series will have to run for decades to quantitatively surpass those currently available. Here we argue that experimentation in addition to quantitative analysis of existing data is needed to identify the most important drivers of insect decline. While most potential drivers of insect population change are likely to have already been identified, their relative importance is largely unknown. Researchers should thus unite and use statistical insight to set up suitable experiments to be able to rank drivers by their importance. Such a coordinated effort is needed to produce the knowledge necessary for conservation action and will also result in increased monitoring and new time series.

The Grassland Fragmentation Experiment in the Swiss Jura Mountains: A Synthesis

We synthesize findings from a 7-year fragmentation experiment in species-rich, nutrient-poor, dry calcareous grasslands in the north-western Jura mountains, Switzerland. We used a standardized approach with 48 fragments (0.25–20.25 m2) and corresponding control plots in three sites. The 5-m-wide isolation area around the fragments was maintained by frequent mowing. Fragments experienced various ecological changes, e.g., plant biomass increased along fragment edges. We examined fragmentation effects on species richness and composition, abundance, genetic diversity, functional diversity, species traits and species interactions (pollination, herbivory, parasitism, disease) in a wide array of invertebrate (gastropods, spiders, woodlice, various insect groups) and plant taxa. Responses to fragmentation differed between taxonomical groups and species. While species richness and individual density were lower in fragments in some groups, the opposite was true for other groups. Fragmentation effects were most pronounced on species interactions; however, some effects only occurred with a delay. For example, fragmentation influenced foraging patterns of bumblebees, affecting pollination, which in turn resulted in a decreased outcrossing frequency and reduced genetic diversity in a focal plant species. We highlight key findings of the experiment and emphasize their implications for grassland conservation.

Quantifying the benefits of reducing synthetic nitrogen application policy on ecosystem carbon sequestration and biodiversity

Synthetic Nitrogen (N) usage in agriculture has greatly increased food supply over the past century. However, the intensive use of N fertilizer is nevertheless the source of numerous environmental issues and remains a major challenge for policymakers to understand, measure, and quantify the interactions and trade-offs between ecosystem carbon and terrestrial biodiversity loss. In this study, we investigate the impacts of a public policy scenario that aims to halve N fertilizer application across European Union (EU) agriculture on both carbon (C) sequestration and biodiversity changes. We quantify the impacts by integrating two economic models with an agricultural land surface model and a terrestrial biodiversity model (that uses data from a range of taxonomic groups, including plants, fungi, vertebrates and invertebrates). Here, we show that the two economic scenarios lead to different outcomes in terms of C sequestration potential and biodiversity. Land abandonment associated with increased fertilizer price scenario facilitates higher C sequestration in soils (+ 1014 MtC) and similar species richness levels (+ 1.9%) at the EU scale. On the other hand, the more extensive crop production scenario is associated with lower C sequestration potential in soils (- 97 MtC) and similar species richness levels (- 0.4%) because of a lower area of grazing land. Our results therefore highlight the complexity of the environmental consequences of a nitrogen reduction policy, which will depend fundamentally on how the economic models used to project consequences.

Land use and soil characteristics affect soil organisms differently from above-ground assemblages

Background

Land-use is a major driver of changes in biodiversity worldwide, but studies have overwhelmingly focused on above-ground taxa: the effects on soil biodiversity are less well known, despite the importance of soil organisms in ecosystem functioning. We modelled data from a global biodiversity database to compare how the abundance of soil-dwelling and above-ground organisms responded to land use and soil properties.

Results

We found that land use affects overall abundance differently in soil and above-ground assemblages. The abundance of soil organisms was markedly lower in cropland and plantation habitats than in primary vegetation and pasture. Soil properties influenced the abundance of soil biota in ways that differed among land uses, suggesting they shape both abundance and its response to land use.

Conclusions

Our results caution against assuming models or indicators derived from above-ground data can apply to soil assemblages and highlight the potential value of incorporating soil properties into biodiversity models.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-022-02089-4.

Illuminating biodiversity changes in the ‘Black Box’

Soil is often described as a ‘black box’, as surprisingly little is known about the high levels of biodiversity that reside there. For aboveground organisms, we have good knowledge of the distribution of the species and how they might change under future human impacts. Yet despite the fact that soil organisms provide a wide variety of ecosystem functions, we have very limited knowledge of their distribution and how their diversity might change in the future. In order to create accurate and generalisable models of biodiversity, the underlying data need to be representative of the entire globe. Yet even with our recently compiled global earthworm dataset of over 11000 sites, there are gaps across large regions. These gaps are consistent across many other datasets of both above- and belowground diversity. In order to fill the gaps we propose a sampling network (SoilFaUNa), to create a comprehensive database of soil macrofauna diversity and soil functions (e.g. decomposition rates). Building on the existing dataset of earthworm diversity and early data from the SoilFaUNa project, we will investigate changes in earthworm diversity. From our current work, we know that both climate and land use are main drivers in predicting earthworm diversity, but both will change under future scenarios and may alter ecosystem functions. We will, using space-for-time substitution models, estimate how earthworm diversity and their functions might change in the future, modelling earthworm diversity as a function of climate, land use and soil properties and predicting based on future scenarios. Previous studies of aboveground diversity changes over time using time-series analysis have found no-net-loss in richness, but analyses have criticisms. We aim to use time-series data on earthworms to move this debate forward, by using data and statistical methods that would address the criticisms, whilst increasing our knowledge on this understudied soil group. Field experiments and micro-/mesocosm experiments have been used to investigate the link between a number of soil organisms and ecosystem functions under few environmental conditions. Meta-analyses, which can produce generalisable results can only answer questions for which there are data. Thus, we have been lacking on information on the link between the entire community of soil fauna and ecosystem functions and impact of changes to the soil fauna community across environmental contexts. Using data collected from the SoilFaUNa project, we will, for the first time, synthesise globally distributed specifically-sampled data to model how changes in the community composition of soil macrofauna (due to changes in land use, climate or soil properties) impact the ecosystem functions in the soil.

Predictability and transferability of local biodiversity environment relationships

Background

Biodiversity varies in space and time, and often in response to environmental heterogeneity. Indicators in the form of local biodiversity measures-such as species richness or abundance-are common tools to capture this variation. The rise of readily available remote sensing data has enabled the characterization of environmental heterogeneity in a globally robust and replicable manner. Based on the assumption that differences in biodiversity measures are generally related to differences in environmental heterogeneity, these data have enabled projections and extrapolations of biodiversity in space and time. However so far little work has been done on quantitatively evaluating if and how accurately local biodiversity measures can be predicted.

Methods

Here I combine estimates of biodiversity measures from terrestrial local biodiversity surveys with remotely-sensed data on environmental heterogeneity globally. I then determine through a cross-validation framework how accurately local biodiversity measures can be predicted within ("predictability") and across similar ("transferability") biodiversity surveys.

Results

I found that prediction errors can be substantial, with error magnitudes varying between different biodiversity measures, taxonomic groups, sampling techniques and types of environmental heterogeneity characterizations. And although errors associated with model predictability were in many cases relatively low, these results question-particular for transferability-our capability to accurately predict and project local biodiversity measures based on environmental heterogeneity. I make the case that future predictions should be evaluated based on their accuracy and inherent uncertainty, and ecological theories be tested against whether we are able to make accurate predictions from local biodiversity data.

ROBITT: A tool for assessing the risk-of-bias in studies of temporal trends in ecology

Aggregated species occurrence and abundance data from disparate sources are increasingly accessible to ecologists for the analysis of temporal trends in biodiversity. However, sampling biases relevant to any given research question are often poorly explored and infrequently reported; this can undermine statistical inference. In other disciplines, it is common for researchers to complete 'risk-of-bias' assessments to expose and document the potential for biases to undermine conclusions. The huge growth in available data, and recent controversies surrounding their use to infer temporal trends, indicate that similar assessments are urgently needed in ecology.We introduce ROBITT, a structured tool for assessing the 'Risk-Of-Bias In studies of Temporal Trends in ecology'. ROBITT has a similar format to its counterparts in other disciplines: it comprises signalling questions designed to elicit information on the potential for bias in key study domains. In answering these, users will define study inferential goal(s) and relevant statistical target populations. This information is used to assess potential sampling biases across domains relevant to the research question (e.g. geography, taxonomy, environment), and how these vary through time. If assessments indicate biases, then users must clearly describe them and/or explain what mitigating action will be taken.Everything that users need to complete a ROBITT assessment is provided: the tool, a guidance document and a worked example. Following other disciplines, the tool and guidance document were developed through a consensus-forming process across experts working in relevant areas of ecology and evidence synthesis.We propose that researchers should be strongly encouraged to include a ROBITT assessment when publishing studies of biodiversity trends, especially when using aggregated data. This will help researchers to structure their thinking, clearly acknowledge potential sampling issues, highlight where expert consultation is required and provide an opportunity to describe data checks that might go unreported. ROBITT will also enable reviewers, editors and readers to establish how well research conclusions are supported given a dataset combined with some analytical approach. In turn, it should strengthen evidence-based policy and practice, reduce differing interpretations of data and provide a clearer picture of the uncertainties associated with our understanding of reality.

Species richness response to human pressure hides important assemblage transformations

SignificanceHuman activities are causing biodiversity loss, but there is still strong debate on their effect on species richness. Here, I propose a unification of five trajectories of species richness response to increasing human pressure under the "replace then remove framework." It consists in a first phase of assemblage transformation (with the replacement of "loser" by "winner" species), often followed by a second phase of steep decline in species richness (with the decline of many winner species) when human pressure exceeds a certain threshold. The empirical results presented in this study provide an outstanding illustration of assemblage transformations that may cause biotic homogenization, demonstrating how habitat specialist, endemic, sensitive, and threatened species are replaced by others with increasing human pressure.

Assessing ecosystem condition at the national level in Hungary - indicators, approaches, challenges

The availability of robust and reliable spatial information on ecosystem condition is of increasing importance in informing conservation policy. Recent policy requirements have sparked a renewed interest in conceptual questions related to ecosystem condition and practical aspects like indicator selection, resulting in the emergence of conceptual frameworks, such as the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting - Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA-EA) and its Ecosystem Condition Typology (ECT). However, while such frameworks are essential to ensure that condition assessments are comprehensive and comparable, large-scale practical implementation often poses challenges that need to be tackled within stringent time and cost frames.

We present methods and experiences of the national-level mapping and assessment of ecosystem condition in Hungary. The assessments covered the whole country, including all major ecosystem types present. The methodology constitutes four approaches of quantifying and mapping condition, based on different interpretations of naturalness and hemeroby, complemented by two more using properties that ‘overarch’ ecosystem types, such as soil and landscape attributes. In order to highlight their strengths and drawbacks, as well as to help reconcile aspects of conceptual relevance with practical limitations, we retrospectively evaluated the six mapping approaches (and the resulting indicators) against the indicator selection criteria suggested in the SEEA-EA. The results show that the various approaches have different strengths and weaknesses and, thus, their joint application has a higher potential to address the specific challenges related to large-scale ecosystem condition mapping.

Introducing the combined atlas framework for large-scale web-based data visualization: The GloNAF atlas of plant invasion

Large-scale biodiversity data, for example, on species distribution and richness information, are being mobilized and becoming available at an increasing rate. Interactive web applications like atlases have been developed to visualize available datasets and make them accessible to a wider audience. Web mapping tools are changing rapidly, and different underlying concepts have been developed to visualize datasets at a high cartographic standard.Here, we introduce the Combined Atlas Framework for the development of interactive web atlases for ecological data visualization. We combine two existing approaches: the five stages of the user-centred design approach for web mapping applications and the three U approach for interface success.Subsequently, we illustrate the use of this framework by developing the Atlas of Plant Invasions based on the Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) database. This case study illustrates how the newly developed Combined Atlas Framework with a user-centred design philosophy can generate measurable success through communication with the target user group, iterative prototyping and competitive analysis of other existing web mapping approaches.The framework is useful in creating an atlas that employs user feedback to determine usability and utility features within an interactive atlas system. Finally, this framework will enable a better-informed development process of future visualization and dissemination of biodiversity data through web mapping applications and interactive atlases.

Agriculture and climate change are reshaping insect biodiversity worldwide

Several previous studies have investigated changes in insect biodiversity, with some highlighting declines and others showing turnover in species composition without net declines^1-5. Although research has shown that biodiversity changes are driven primarily by land-use change and increasingly by climate change^6,7, the potential for interaction between these drivers and insect biodiversity on the global scale remains unclear. Here we show that the interaction between indices of historical climate warming and intensive agricultural land use is associated with reductions of almost 50% in the abundance and 27% in the number of species within insect assemblages relative to those in less-disturbed habitats with lower rates of historical climate warming. These patterns are particularly evident in the tropical realm, whereas some positive responses of biodiversity to climate change occur in non-tropical regions in natural habitats. A high availability of nearby natural habitat often mitigates reductions in insect abundance and richness associated with agricultural land use and substantial climate warming but only in low-intensity agricultural systems. In such systems, in which high levels (75% cover) of natural habitat are available, abundance and richness were reduced by 7% and 5%, respectively, compared with reductions of 63% and 61% in places where less natural habitat is present (25% cover). Our results show that insect biodiversity will probably benefit from mitigating climate change, preserving natural habitat within landscapes and reducing the intensity of agriculture.

Increases in subsistence farming due to land reform have negligible impact on bird communities in Zimbabwe

Habitat alterations resulting from land-use change are major drivers of global biodiversity losses. In Africa, these threats are especially severe. For instance, demand to convert land into agricultural uses is leading to increasing areas of drylands in southern and central Africa being transformed for agriculture. In Zimbabwe, a land reform programme provided an opportunity to study the biodiversity response to abrupt habitat modification in part of a 91,000 ha dryland area of semi-natural savannah used since 1930 for low-level cattle ranching. Small-scale subsistence farms were created during 2001-2002 in 65,000 ha of this area, with ranching continuing in the remaining unchanged area. We measured the compositions of bird communities in farmed and ranched land over 8 years, commencing one decade after subsistence farms were established. Over the study period, repeated counts were made along the same 45 transects to assess species' population changes that may have resulted from trait-filtering responses to habitat disturbance. In 2012, avian species' richness was substantially higher (+8.8%) in the farmland bird community than in the unmodified ranched area. Temporal trends over the study period showed increased species' richness in the ranched area (+12.3%) and farmland (+6.8%). There were increased abundances in birds of most sizes, and in all feeding guilds. New species did not add new functional traits, and no species with distinctive traits were lost in either area. As a result, species' diversity reduced, and functional redundancy increased by 6.8% in ranched land. By 2020, two decades after part of the ranched savannah was converted into farmland, the compositions of the two bird communities had both changed and became more similar. The broadly benign impact on birds of land conversion into subsistence farms is attributed to the relatively low level of agricultural activity in the farmland and the large regional pool of nonspecialist bird species.

Development of a methodology for evaluating the efficiency level of monitoring agroecosystems using big data technologies

The article discusses the theory of monitoring agroecosystems for the effectiveness of using Big Data technologies. The relationship between the agricultural areas of the Tyumen region, the Big Data sources available in them, and the technologies for working with Big Data obtained from sources are described. The article also developed a methodology that makes it possible to assess the level of effectiveness of monitoring agroecosystems using Big Data technologies, based on the result of which a strategy for development of the region as a whole and its agroecosystems, in particular, is formed in terms of equipment with information technologies. The methodology presented in the article is formed on the basis of an engineering ontology, which in the future is able to lower the degree of the human factor in global and local monitoring of agroecosystems for the effectiveness of using Big Data technologies.

Considering habitat conversion and fragmentation in characterisation factors for land-use impacts on vertebrate species richness

Human land use is one of the primary threats to terrestrial species richness and is considered a priority for meeting global sustainability and biodiversity targets. Decision-support tools, such as life cycle assessment (LCA), are widely used for developing strategies to achieve such objectives. Currently available life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) methods apply the countryside species-area relationship (c-SAR) to quantify habitat conversion impacts on species richness. However, additional effects of habitat fragmentation are yet ignored in these assessments. We use the species-habitat relationship (SHR), an adaptation of the c-SAR that considers both habitat conversion and fragmentation effects, to develop a new set of land-use characterisation factors for 702 terrestrial ecoregions (in 238 countries), four land-use types (urban, cropland, pasture, and forestry), and four taxonomic groups (amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles; plus the aggregate of these vertebrate groups). The SHR generally predicts higher per-area impacts of land-use than the impacts estimated by the c-SAR (a median relative difference of +9%), indicating that land-use impacts may be systematically underestimated when ignoring fragmentation effects. Whereas per-area impacts of land-use on regional species richness are highest in temperate regions, reflecting the diminished extent of natural habitat, per-area impacts of land-use on global species richness are highest in the subtropics, reflecting the importance of tropical regions and islands to global vertebrate species diversity. The large variety in magnitude of land-use impacts across the world's regions emphasizes the importance of regionalised assessments. The set of characterisation factors proposed here can be readily used in environmental decision-making.

Intensive human land uses negatively affect vertebrate functional diversity

Land-use change is the leading driver of global biodiversity loss thus characterising its impacts on the functional structure of ecological communities is an urgent challenge. Using a database describing vertebrate assemblages in different land uses, we assess how the type and intensity of land use affect the functional diversity of vertebrates globally. We find that human land uses alter local functional structure by driving declines in functional diversity, with the strongest effects in the most disturbed land uses (intensely used urban sites, cropland and pastures), and among amphibians and birds. Both tropical and temperate areas experience important functional losses, which are only partially offset by functional gains. Tropical assemblages are more likely to show decreases in functional diversity that exceed those expected from species loss alone. Our results indicate that land-use change non-randomly reshapes the functional structure of vertebrate assemblages, raising concerns about the continuation of ecological processes sustained by vertebrates.

Annual changes in the Biodiversity Intactness Index in tropical and subtropical forest biomes, 2001-2012

Few biodiversity indicators are available that reflect the state of broad-sense biodiversity—rather than of particular taxa—at fine spatial and temporal resolution. One such indicator, the Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII), estimates how the average abundance of the native terrestrial species in a region compares with their abundances in the absence of pronounced human impacts. We produced annual maps of modelled BII at 30-arc-second resolution (roughly 1 km at the equator) across tropical and subtropical forested biomes, by combining annual data on land use, human population density and road networks, and statistical models of how these variables affect overall abundance and compositional similarity of plants, fungi, invertebrates and vertebrates. Across tropical and subtropical biomes, BII fell by an average of 1.9 percentage points between 2001 and 2012, with 81 countries seeing an average reduction and 43 an average increase; the extent of primary forest fell by 3.9% over the same period. We did not find strong relationships between changes in BII and countries’ rates of economic growth over the same period; however, limitations in mapping BII in plantation forests may hinder our ability to identify these relationships. This is the first time temporal change in BII has been estimated across such a large region.

Using Naturalness for Assessing the Impact of Forestry and Protection on the Quality of Ecosystems in Life Cycle Assessment

A novel approach is proposed to evaluate the impact of forestry on ecosystem quality in life cycle assessment (LCA) combining a naturalness assessment model with a species richness relationship. The approach is applied to a case study evaluating different forest management strategies involving concomitantly silvicultural scenarios (plantation only, careful logging only or the current mix of both) combined with an increasing share of protected area for wood production in a Québec black spruce forest. The naturalness index is useful to compare forest management scenarios and can help evaluate conservation needs considering the type of management foreseen for wood production. The results indicate that it is preferable to intensify forest management over a small proportion of the forest territory while ensuring strict protection over the remaining portion, compared to extensive forest management over most of the forested area. To explore naturalness introduction in LCA, a provisory curve relating the naturalness index (NI) with the potential disappeared fraction of species (PDF) was developed using species richness data from the literature. LCA impact scores in PDF for producing 1 m3 of wood might lead to consistent results with the naturalness index but the uncertainty is high while the window leading to consistent results is narrow.

A synthesis of land use impacts on stream biodiversity across metrics and scales

While land use intensification is a major driver of biodiversity change in streams, the nature of such changes, and at which scales they occur, have not been synthesized. To synthesize how land use change has altered multiple components of stream biodiversity across scales, we compiled data from 37 studies where comparative data were available for species' total and relative abundances from multiple locations including reference (less impacted) streams to those surrounded by different land use types (urban, forestry, and agriculture). We found that each type of land use reduced multiple components of within-stream biodiversity across scales, but that urbanization consistently had the strongest effects. However, we found that β-diversity among streams in modified landscapes did not differ from β-diversity observed among reference streams, suggesting little evidence for biotic homogenization. Nevertheless, assemblage composition did experience considerable species turnover between reference and modified streams. Our results emphasize that to understand how anthropogenic factors such as land use alter biodiversity, multiple components of biodiversity within and among sites must be simultaneously considered at multiple scales.

Global data on earthworm abundance, biomass, diversity and corresponding environmental properties

Earthworms are an important soil taxon as ecosystem engineers, providing a variety of crucial ecosystem functions and services. Little is known about their diversity and distribution at large spatial scales, despite the availability of considerable amounts of local-scale data. Earthworm diversity data, obtained from the primary literature or provided directly by authors, were collated with information on site locations, including coordinates, habitat cover, and soil properties. Datasets were required, at a minimum, to include abundance or biomass of earthworms at a site. Where possible, site-level species lists were included, as well as the abundance and biomass of individual species and ecological groups. This global dataset contains 10,840 sites, with 184 species, from 60 countries and all continents except Antarctica. The data were obtained from 182 published articles, published between 1973 and 2017, and 17 unpublished datasets. Amalgamating data into a single global database will assist researchers in investigating and answering a wide variety of pressing questions, for example, jointly assessing aboveground and belowground biodiversity distributions and drivers of biodiversity change.

Global effects of land-use intensity on local pollinator biodiversity

Pollinating species are in decline globally, with land use an important driver. However, most of the evidence on which these claims are made is patchy, based on studies with low taxonomic and geographic representativeness. Here, we model the effect of land-use type and intensity on global pollinator biodiversity, using a local-scale database covering 303 studies, 12,170 sites, and 4502 pollinating species. Relative to a primary vegetation baseline, we show that low levels of intensity can have beneficial effects on pollinator biodiversity. Within most anthropogenic land-use types however, increasing intensity is associated with significant reductions, particularly in urban (43% richness and 62% abundance reduction compared to the least intensive urban sites), and pasture (75% abundance reduction) areas. We further show that on cropland, the strongly negative response to intensity is restricted to tropical areas, and that the direction and magnitude of response differs among taxonomic groups. Our findings confirm widespread effects of land-use intensity on pollinators, most significantly in the tropics, where land use is predicted to change rapidly.