Risk factors for incident heart failure in age- and sex-specific strata: a population-based cohort using linked electronic health records

Plasma infrared fingerprinting with machine learning enables single-measurement multi-phenotype health screening

Infrared spectroscopy is a powerful technique for probing the molecular profiles of complex biofluids, offering a promising avenue for high-throughput in vitro diagnostics. While several studies showcased its potential in detecting health conditions, a large-scale analysis of a naturally heterogeneous potential patient population has not been attempted. Using a population-based cohort, here we analyze 5,184 blood plasma samples from 3,169 individuals using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. Applying a multi-task classification to distinguish between dyslipidemia, hypertension, prediabetes, type 2 diabetes, and healthy states, we find that the approach can accurately single out healthy individuals and characterize chronic multimorbid states. We further identify the capacity to forecast the development of metabolic syndrome years in advance of onset. Dataset-independent testing confirms the robustness of infrared signatures against variations in sample handling, storage time, and measurement regimes. This study provides the framework that establishes infrared molecular fingerprinting as an efficient modality for populational health diagnostics.

Sex-related similarities and differences in responses to heart failure therapies

Although sex-related differences in the epidemiology, risk factors, clinical characteristics and outcomes of heart failure are well known, investigations in the past decade have shed light on an often overlooked aspect of heart failure: the influence of sex on treatment response. Sex-related differences in anatomy, physiology, pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and psychosocial factors might influence the response to pharmacological agents, device therapy and cardiac rehabilitation in patients with heart failure. In this Review, we discuss the similarities between men and women in their response to heart failure therapies, as well as the sex-related differences in treatment benefits, dose-response relationships, and tolerability and safety of guideline-directed medical therapy, device therapy and cardiac rehabilitation. We provide insights into the unique challenges faced by men and women with heart failure, highlight potential avenues for tailored therapeutic approaches and call for sex-specific evaluation of treatment efficacy and safety in future research.

Clustering of Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Heart Failure in Older Adults from the Brazilian Far North

Given the aging global population, identifying heart failure (HF) phenotypes has become crucial, as distinct disease characteristics can influence treatment and prognosis in older adults. This study aimed to analyze the association between clustering of cardiovascular risk factors and HF in older adults. A cross-sectional epidemiological study was conducted with 1322 older adults (55% women, mean age 70.4) seen in primary health care. Diagnosis of HF was performed by a cardiologist based on diagnostic tests and medical history. Cardiovascular risk factors included hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, and smoking. Using logistic regression, potential associations were tested. Individual risk factor analysis showed that older adults with hypertension, diabetes, or hypercholesterolemia had up to 7.6 times higher odds to have HF. The cluster where older adults had only one risk factor instead of none increased the odds of HF by 53.0%. Additionally, the odds of older patients having HF ranged from 3.59 times for the two-risk factor cluster to 20.61 times for the simultaneous presence of all four factors. The analysis of clusters substantially increasing HF risk in older adults revealed the importance of individualizing subgroups with distinct HF pathophysiologies. The clinical significance of these clusters can be beneficial in guiding a more personalized therapeutic approach.

Blood pressure, hypertension, and the risk of heart failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies

AIMS

Several observational studies have investigated the association between hypertension or elevated systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure and risk of heart failure, but not all the studies have been consistent. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to summarize the available data from cohort studies on the association between hypertension, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and the risk of heart failure.

METHODS AND RESULTS

PubMed and Embase databases were searched for relevant articles from inception to 10 June 2022. Cohort studies on hypertension or blood pressure and heart failure were included. Random effect models were used to calculate summary relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between hypertension or blood pressure and heart failure. Forty-seven cohort studies were included. The summary RR was 1.71 (95% CI: 1.53-1.90, I2 = 98.4%) for hypertension vs. no hypertension (n = 43 studies, 166 798 cases, 20 359 997 participants), 1.28 (95% CI: 1.22-1.35, I2 = 90.3%) per 20 mmHg of systolic blood pressure (24 studies, 31 639 cases and 2 557 975 participants), and 1.12 (95% CI: 1.04-1.21, I2 = 92.6%) per 10 mmHg of diastolic blood pressure (16 studies, 23 127 cases and 2 419 972 participants). There was a steeper increase in heart failure risk at higher blood pressure levels and a three- to five-fold increase in RR at around 180/120 mmHg of systolic and diastolic blood pressure compared with 100/60 mmHg, respectively. There was little indication of publication bias across analyses.

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis suggests a strong positive association between hypertension and systolic and diastolic blood pressure and the risk of heart failure. These results support efforts to reduce blood pressure in the general population to reduce the risk of heart failure.

Identification of diagnostic model in heart failure with myocardial fibrosis and conduction block by integrated gene co-expression network analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite the advancements in heart failure(HF) research, the early diagnosis of HF continues to be a challenging issue in clinical practice. This study aims to investigate the genes related to myocardial fibrosis and conduction block, with the goal of developing a diagnostic model for early treatment of HF in patients.

METHOD

The gene expression profiles of GSE57345, GSE16499, and GSE9128 were obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. After merging the expression profile data and adjusting for batch effects, differentially expressed genes (DEGs) associated with conduction block and myocardial fibrosis were identified. Gene Ontology (GO) resources, Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) resources, and gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) were utilized for functional enrichment analysis. A protein-protein interaction network (PPI) was constructed using a string database. Potential key genes were selected based on the bioinformatics information mentioned above. SVM and LASSO were employed to identify hub genes and construct the module associated with HF. The mRNA levels of TAC mice and external datasets (GSE141910 and GSE59867) are utilized for validating the diagnostic model. Additionally, the study explores the relationship between the diagnostic model and immune cell infiltration.

RESULTS

A total of 395 genes exhibiting differential expression were identified. Functional enrichment analysis revealed that these specific genes primarily participate in biological processes and pathways associated with the constituents of the extracellular matrix (ECM), immune system processes, and inflammatory responses. We identified a diagnostic model consisting of 16 hub genes, and its predictive performance was validated using external data sets and a transverse aortic coarctation (TAC) mouse model. In addition, we observed significant differences in mRNA expression of 7 genes in the TAC mouse model. Interestingly, our study also unveiled a correlation between these model genes and immune cell infiltration.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified sixteen key genes associated with myocardial fibrosis and conduction block, as well as diagnostic models for heart failure. Our findings have significant implications for the intensive management of individuals with potential genetic variants associated with heart failure, especially in the context of advancing cell-targeted therapy for myocardial fibrosis.

Heart failure in older patients with atrial fibrillation: incidence and risk factors

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is linked to heart failure (HF). However, little has been published on the factors that may precipitate the onset of HF in AF patients. We aimed to determine the incidence, predictors, and prognosis of incident HF in older patients with AF with no prior history of HF.

METHODS

Patients with AF older than 80 years and without prior HF were identified between 2014 and 2018.

RESULTS

A total of 5794 patients (mean age, 85.2±3.8 years; 63.2% women) were followed up for 3.7 years. Incident HF, predominantly with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction, developed in 33.3% (incidence rate, 11.5-100 people-year). Multivariate analysis identified 11 clinical risk factors for incident HF, irrespective of HF subtype: significant valvular heart disease (HR, 1.99; 95%CI, 1.73-2.28), reduced baseline left ventricular ejection fraction (HR, 1.92; 95%CI, 1.68-2.19), chronic pulmonary obstructive disease (HR, 1.59; 95%CI, 1.40-1.82), enlarged left atrium (HR 1.47, 95%CI 1.33-1.62), renal dysfunction (HR 1.36, 95%CI 1.24-1.49), malnutrition (HR, 1.33; 95%CI, 1.21-1.46), anemia (HR, 1.30; 95%CI, 1.17-1.44), permanent AF (HR, 1.15; 95%CI, 1.03-1.28), diabetes mellitus (HR, 1.13; 95%CI, 1.01-1.27), age per year (HR, 1.04; 95%CI, 1.02-1.05), and high body mass index for each kg/m2 (HR, 1.03; 95%CI, 1.02-1.04). The presence of incident HF nearly doubled the mortality risk (HR, 1.67; 95%CI, 1.53-1.81).

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of HF in this cohort was relatively frequent and nearly doubled the mortality risk. Eleven risk factors for HF were identified, expanding the scope for primary prevention among elderly patients with AF.

Cardiovascular diseases in women - Consensus document of the Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia, Sociedade Portuguesa de Ginecologia, Sociedade Portuguesa de Obstetrícia e Medicina Materno-Fetal, Sociedade Portuguesa de Contraceção e Associação Portuguesa de Medicina Geral e Familiar

The main objective of this consensus statement from the Portuguese Society of Cardiology, the Portuguese Society of Gynecology, the Portuguese Society of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine, Portuguese Society of Contraception, Portuguese Association of General Practice and Family Medicine is to improve cardiovascular care for women. It includes a brief review of the state-of-the-art of cardiovascular diseases in women and of the links to other fields such as Gynaecology, Obstetrics and Endocrinology. It also provides final recommendations to help clinicians working in care of women's health.

Associations of blood pressure with cardiovascular and mortality outcomes in over 2 million older persons with or without diabetes mellitus: A systematic review and meta-analysis of 45 cohort studies

BACKGROUND

The impact of blood pressure on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality outcomes in older people with diabetes mellitus (DM) is not well quantified. Using a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational cohort studies, we aimed to compare the associations of blood pressure levels with cardiovascular and mortality outcomes in older people aged ≥ 65 years with or without DM.

METHODS

Studies were identified from MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, and search of bibliographies to July 2022. Study-specific risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled.

RESULTS

Forty-five unique observational cohort studies (n = 2305,189 participants) assessing the associations of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and/or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) levels with adverse cardiovascular outcomes were included. In the general population, the pooled RRs (95% CIs) of SBP ≥ 140 vs < 140 mmHg and per 10 mmHg increase for composite CVD/MACE were 1.26 (0.96-1.64) and 1.15 (1.08-1.23), respectively. The respective estimates were 1.56 (1.04-2.34) and 1.10 (1.04-1.18) for patients with DM. SBP ≥ 130 vs < 130 mmHg was not associated with an increased risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in both populations. SBP < 120 vs ≥ 120 mmHg was associated with an increased risk of all cause-mortality in the general population (n = 10 studies). DBP ≥ 90 mmHg was associated with an increased risk of some adverse cardiovascular outcomes in both populations. Interaction analyses suggested similar risk of outcomes in both populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Observational evidence suggests SBP and DBP confer similar cardiovascular and mortality risk in older adults in the general population and those with DM. A blood pressure target range of > 130/80 to < 140/90 mmHg may be optimal for patients ≥ 65 years with DM, but specific targets may need to be individualised based on patients' unique circumstances. Furthermore, findings do not support stringent blood pressure control in this population group. Definitive RCTs are needed to support these observational findings.

Association between coffee and incident heart failure: A prospective cohort study from the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The relationship between coffee consumption and heart failure (HF) incidence is inconclusive. This study aimed to explore the association between time-varying coffee consumption and incident HF using a longitudinal study design.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data were obtained from the UK Biobank, comprising 497,503 adults (age, 56.5 ± 8.1 years; 54.6% women) who were free from HF at baseline in 2006-2010. The median follow-up time for the HF incidence was 11.9 years. Marginal structural models (MSM) were employed to adjust for potential time-varying confounders and account for bias caused by loss of follow-up. Furthermore, we used a restricted cubic spline to test and describe the nonlinear relationship between coffee consumption and HF risk. At baseline, 70.5% of participants reported drinking ≥1 cups/d coffee and 2.7% participants developed HF. After adjusting for potential confounders, we identified a nonlinear J-shaped association between coffee consumption and HF risk (P < 0.001). Compared with drinking coffee <1 cups/d, 1-2 cups/d (HR = 0.878; 95% CI: 0.838-0.920), 3-4 cups/d (HR = 0.920; 95% CI: 0.869-0.974) may be associated with a reduced risk of HF, while >6 cups/d (HR = 1.209; 95% CI: 1.056-1.385) may be associated with a higher risk of HF. However, sensitive analyses stratified by gender and smoking status indicated that >6 cups/d does not significantly increase the risk of HF. Additionally, the type of coffee was found to significant impact on the incidence of HF (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

In this large cohort of UK adults, moderate coffee consumption may reduce risk of HF incidence.

The impact of sociodemographic status on the association of classical cardiovascular risk factors with coronary artery disease: a stratified Mendelian randomization study

OBJECTIVES

Low socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with cardiovascular risk factors and increased coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. We tested whether SES is an effect modifier of the association between classical cardiovascular risk factors and CAD using SES-stratified Mendelian Randomization in European-ancestry participants from UK Biobank.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We calculated weighted genetic risk scores (GRS) for the risk factors body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides. Participants were stratified by Townsend deprivation index score. Logistic regression models were used to investigate associations between GRSs and CAD occurrence. Additionally, stratification based on GRS-adjusted Townsend deprivation index residuals was conducted to correct for possible collider-stratification bias.

RESULTS

In a total sample size of N = 446,485, with 52,946 cases, the risk for CAD per standard deviation increase in genetically influenced BMI was highest in the group with the lowest 25% SES (odds ratio: 1.126, 95% confidence interval: 1.106-1.145; odds ratio: 1.081, 95% confidence interval: 1.059-1.103 in high SES), remaining similar after controlling for possible collider-stratification bias. The effects of genetically influenced systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglyceride on CAD were similar between SES groups.

CONCLUSION

CAD risk attributable to increased BMI is not homogenous and could be modified by SES. This emphasizes the need of tailor-made approaches for BMI-associated CAD risk reduction.

Genome-wide association analysis and Mendelian randomization proteomics identify drug targets for heart failure

We conduct a large-scale meta-analysis of heart failure genome-wide association studies (GWAS) consisting of over 90,000 heart failure cases and more than 1 million control individuals of European ancestry to uncover novel genetic determinants for heart failure. Using the GWAS results and blood protein quantitative loci, we perform Mendelian randomization and colocalization analyses on human proteins to provide putative causal evidence for the role of druggable proteins in the genesis of heart failure. We identify 39 genome-wide significant heart failure risk variants, of which 18 are previously unreported. Using a combination of Mendelian randomization proteomics and genetic cis-only colocalization analyses, we identify 10 additional putatively causal genes for heart failure. Findings from GWAS and Mendelian randomization-proteomics identify seven (CAMK2D, PRKD1, PRKD3, MAPK3, TNFSF12, APOC3 and NAE1) proteins as potential targets for interventions to be used in primary prevention of heart failure.

Biomarkers for the Diagnosis of Heart Failure in People with Diabetes: A Consensus Report from Diabetes Technology Society

Diabetes Technology Society assembled a panel of clinician experts in diabetology, cardiology, clinical chemistry, nephrology, and primary care to review the current evidence on biomarker screening of people with diabetes (PWD) for heart failure (HF), who are, by definition, at risk for HF (Stage A HF). This consensus report reviews features of HF in PWD from the perspectives of 1) epidemiology, 2) classification of stages, 3) pathophysiology, 4) biomarkers for diagnosing, 5) biomarker assays, 6) diagnostic accuracy of biomarkers, 7) benefits of biomarker screening, 8) consensus recommendations for biomarker screening, 9) stratification of Stage B HF, 10) echocardiographic screening, 11) management of Stage A and Stage B HF, and 12) future directions. The Diabetes Technology Society panel recommends 1) biomarker screening with one of two circulating natriuretic peptides (B-type natriuretic peptide or N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide), 2) beginning screening five years following diagnosis of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and at the diagnosis of type 2 diabetes (T2D), 3) beginning routine screening no earlier than at age 30 years for T1D (irrespective of age of diagnosis) and at any age for T2D, 4) screening annually, and 5) testing any time of day. The panel also recommends that an abnormal biomarker test defines asymptomatic preclinical HF (Stage B HF). This diagnosis requires follow-up using transthoracic echocardiography for classification into one of four subcategories of Stage B HF, corresponding to risk of progression to symptomatic clinical HF (Stage C HF). These recommendations will allow identification and management of Stage A and Stage B HF in PWD to prevent progression to Stage C HF or advanced HF (Stage D HF).

An inevitable or modifiable trajectory towards heart failure in high-risk individuals: insights from the nurse-led intervention for less chronic heart failure (NIL-CHF) study

AIMS

We extended follow-up of a heart failure (HF) prevention study to determine if initially positive findings of improved cardiac recovery were translated into less de novo HF and/or all-cause mortality (primary endpoint) in the longer term.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The Nurse-led Intervention for Less Chronic HF (NIL-CHF) study was a single-centre randomized trial of nurse-led prevention involving cardiac inpatients without HF. At 3 years, 454 survivors (aged 66 ± 11 years, 71% men and 68% coronary artery disease) had the following: (i) a normal echocardiogram (128 cases/28.2%), (ii) structural heart disease (196/43.2%), or (iii) left ventricular diastolic dysfunction/left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVDD/LVSD: 130/28.6%). Outcomes were examined during median 8.3 (interquartile range 7.8-8.8) years according to these hierarchal groups and change in cardiac status from baseline to 3 years. Overall, 109 (24.0%) participants had a de novo HF admission or died while accumulating 551 cardiovascular-related admissions/3643 days of hospital stay. Progressively worse cardiac status correlated with increased hospitalizations (P < 0.001). The mean rate (95% confidence interval) of cardiovascular admissions/days of hospital stay being 0.09 (0.05-0.12) admissions/0.33 (0.13-0.54) days vs. 0.27 (0.20-0.34) admissions/2.20 (1.36-3.04) days per annum for those with a normal echocardiogram vs. LVDD/LVSD at 3 years. With progressively higher event rates, the adjusted hazard ratio for a de novo HF admission and/or death associated with a structural abnormality (24.5% of cases) and LVDD/LVSD (36.2%) at 3 years was 1.57 (0.82-3.01; P = 0.173) and 2.07 (1.05-4.05; P = 0.035) compared with a normal echocardiogram (10.9%). Mortality also mirrored the direction/extent of cardiac status/trajectory.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest the positive initial effects of NIL-CHF intervention on cardiac recovery contributed to better long-term outcomes among patients at high risk of HF. However, prevention of HF remains challenging.

The effects of ambient fine particulate matter exposure and physical activity on heart failure: A risk-benefit analysis of a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Evidence supporting the adverse effects of air pollution and the benefits of physical activity (PA) on heart failure (HF) has continued to grow. However, their joint effects remain largely unknown.

METHODS

Our investigation included a total of 321,672 participants free of HF at baseline from the UK Biobank. Participants were followed up till March 2021. Information on participants' PA levels and additional covariates was collected by questionnaire. The annual fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentration was estimated using a Land Use Regression (LUR) model. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the associations of PA and PM_2.5 exposure with incident HF, as well as their interaction on both additive and multiplicative scales.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 12.0 years, 8212 cases of HF were uncovered. Compared with participants with low PA, the hazard ratios (HRs) were 0.69 (95 % CI: 0.65, 0.73) and 0.61 (95 % CI: 0.58, 0.65) for those with moderate and high PA, respectively. PM_2.5 was associated with an elevated risk of incident HF with an HR of 1.11 (95 % CI: 1.08, 1.14) per interquartile range (IQR) increment. The synergistic additive interaction between low PA and high PM_2.5 exposure on HF was observed. Compared with participants with high PA and low PM_2.5 exposure, those with low PA and high PM_2.5 exposure had the highest risk of HF [HR (95 % CI): 1.90 (1.76, 2.06)].

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that PA might still be an appropriate strategy to prevent HF for those living in areas with relatively high air pollution. Individuals with low PA may pay more attention to air pollution.

Risk factors for pre-heart failure or symptomatic heart failure based on NT-proBNP

AIMS

Evidence on the risk factors for incident heart failure in Asia has been limited. We sought to identify the risk factors for pre-heart failure or symptomatic heart failure, based on N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), in the Japanese general population.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study based on the Circulatory Risk in Communities Study involving 5335 Japanese individuals whose NT-proBNP levels were measured between 2010 and 2015. Of these, 2768 people aged between 30 and 69 years who undertook annual cardiovascular risk surveys at least once between 1990 and 2000 were retrospectively eligible to be participants in this study. We performed multivariable logistic regression analyses to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of pre-heart failure or symptomatic heart failure defined as NT-proBNP >400 pg/mL or as having a diagnosis of heart failure and taking medication for heart failure for several cardiovascular risk factors (body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, total cholesterol, triglyceride, smoking status, drinking status).

RESULTS

We identified 85 cases of heart failure. The multivariable ORs (95% CIs) were 5.70 (2.70-12.0) for body mass index of 27-29.9 kg/m² and 5.91 (2.19-16.0) for ≥30 kg/m² compared with 21-22.9 kg/m² ; 2.49(1.01-6.13) for systolic blood pressure of ≥160 mmHg vs. <130 mmHg; 2.87(1.23-6.68) for diastolic blood pressure of ≥100 mmHg vs. <80 mmHg; 5.16(2.14-12.4) for diabetes vs. non-diabetes; and 2.24 (0.92-5.49) for current smokers of ≥20 cigarettes/day vs. never smokers. The multivariable ORs (95% CIs) of the number of risk factors, defined as the sum of four risk factors (obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and current smoker) was 6.80 (3.69-12.5) for ≥2 risk factors vs. no risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The accumulation of these risk factors was associated with a graded higher risk of pre-heart failure or symptomatic heart failure.

Incidence of acute lower respiratory tract disease hospitalisations, including pneumonia, among adults in Bristol, UK, 2019, estimated using both a prospective and retrospective methodology

OBJECTIVES

To determine the disease burden of acute lower respiratory tract disease (aLRTD) and its subsets (pneumonia, lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) and heart failure) in hospitalised adults in Bristol, UK.

SETTING

Single-centre, secondary care hospital, Bristol, UK.

DESIGN

We estimated aLRTD hospitalisations incidence in adults (≥18 years) in Bristol, UK, using two approaches. First, retrospective International Classification of Diseases 10th revision (ICD-10) code analysis (first five positions/hospitalisation) identified aLRTD events over a 12-month period (March 2018 to February 2019). Second, during a 21-day prospective review (19 August 2019 to 9 September 2019), aLRTD admissions were identified, categorised by diagnosis and subsequently annualised. Hospital catchment denominators were calculated using linked general practice and hospitalisation data, with each practice's denominator contribution calculated based on practice population and per cent of the practices' hospitalisations admitted to the study hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

Prospective review: 1322 adults screened; 410 identified with aLRTD. Retrospective review: 7727 adult admissions.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The incidence of aLRTD and its subsets in the adult population of Southmead Hospital, Bristol UK.

RESULTS

Based on ICD-10 code analysis, annual incidences per 100 000 population were: aLRTD, 1901; pneumonia, 591; LRTI, 739; heart failure, 402. aLRTD incidence was highest among those ≥65 years: 65-74 (3684 per 100 000 adults), 75-84 (6962 per 100 000 adults) and ≥85 (11 430 per 100 000 adults). During the prospective review, 410/1322 (31%) hospitalised adults had aLRTD signs/symptoms and annualised incidences closely replicated retrospective analysis results.

CONCLUSIONS

The aLRTD disease burden was high, increasing sharply with age. The aLRTD incidence is probably higher than estimated previously due to criteria specifying respiratory-specific symptoms or radiological change, usage of only the first diagnosis code and mismatch between case count sources and population denominators. This may have significant consequences for healthcare planning, including usage of current and future vaccinations against respiratory infection.

Development of vericiguat: The first soluble guanylate cyclase (sGC) stimulator launched for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF)

In recent years, with improvements in treatments for heart failure (HF), the survival period of patients has been extended. However, the emergence of some patients with repeated hospitalizations due to their worsening conditions and low survival rates followed. Currently, few drugs are available for such patients. Vericiguat was first drug approved for the treatment of symptomatic patients with chronic HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) to reduce the occurrence of worsening HF. This article provides comprehensive information about vericiguat in terms of drug design and development, structure-activity relationship (SAR), synthesis, pharmacological efficacy, and clinical practice. In addition, insights into the current vericiguat trials and treatments of HF are also discussed.

Preventing heart failure: a position paper of the Heart Failure Association in collaboration with the European Association of Preventive Cardiology

The heart failure epidemic is growing and its prevention, in order to reduce associated hospital readmission rates and its clinical and economic burden, is a key issue in modern cardiovascular medicine. The present consensus document aims to provide practical evidence-based information to support the implementation of effective preventive measures. After reviewing the most common risk factors, an overview of the population attributable risks in different continents is presented, to identify potentially effective opportunities for prevention and to inform preventive strategies. Finally, potential interventions that have been proposed and have been shown to be effective in preventing HF are listed.

2021 ESC Guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of acute and chronic heart failure: Developed by the Task Force for the diagnosis and treatment of acute and chronic heart failure of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC). With the special contribution of the Heart Failure Association (HFA) of the ESC

Document Reviewers: Rudolf A. de Boer (CPG Review Coordinator) (Netherlands), P. Christian Schulze (CPG Review Coordinator) (Germany), Magdy Abdelhamid (Egypt), Victor Aboyans (France), Stamatis Adamopoulos (Greece), Stefan D. Anker (Germany), Elena Arbelo (Spain), Riccardo Asteggiano (Italy), Johann Bauersachs (Germany), Antoni Bayes-Genis (Spain), Michael A. Borger (Germany), Werner Budts (Belgium), Maja Cikes (Croatia), Kevin Damman (Netherlands), Victoria Delgado (Netherlands), Paul Dendale (Belgium), Polychronis Dilaveris (Greece), Heinz Drexel (Austria), Justin Ezekowitz (Canada), Volkmar Falk (Germany), Laurent Fauchier (France), Gerasimos Filippatos (Greece), Alan Fraser (United Kingdom), Norbert Frey (Germany), Chris P. Gale (United Kingdom), Finn Gustafsson (Denmark), Julie Harris (United Kingdom), Bernard Iung (France), Stefan Janssens (Belgium), Mariell Jessup (United States of America), Aleksandra Konradi (Russia), Dipak Kotecha (United Kingdom), Ekaterini Lambrinou (Cyprus), Patrizio Lancellotti (Belgium), Ulf Landmesser (Germany), Christophe Leclercq (France), Basil S. Lewis (Israel), Francisco Leyva (United Kingdom), AleVs Linhart (Czech Republic), Maja-Lisa Løchen (Norway), Lars H. Lund (Sweden), Donna Mancini (United States of America), Josep Masip (Spain), Davor Milicic (Croatia), Christian Mueller (Switzerland), Holger Nef (Germany), Jens-Cosedis Nielsen (Denmark), Lis Neubeck (United Kingdom), Michel Noutsias (Germany), Steffen E. Petersen (United Kingdom), Anna Sonia Petronio (Italy), Piotr Ponikowski (Poland), Eva Prescott (Denmark), Amina Rakisheva (Kazakhstan), Dimitrios J. Richter (Greece), Evgeny Schlyakhto (Russia), Petar Seferovic (Serbia), Michele Senni (Italy), Marta Sitges (Spain), Miguel Sousa-Uva (Portugal), Carlo G. Tocchetti (Italy), Rhian M. Touyz (United Kingdom), Carsten Tschoepe (Germany), Johannes Waltenberger (Germany/Switzerland) All experts involved in the development of these guidelines have submitted declarations of interest. These have been compiled in a report and published in a supplementary document simultaneously to the guidelines. The report is also available on the ESC website www.escardio.org/guidelines For the Supplementary Data which include background information and detailed discussion of the data that have provided the basis for the guidelines see European Heart Journal online.

Relative fat mass, a new index of adiposity, is strongly associated with incident heart failure: data from PREVEND

Body-mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and waist-hip ratio are commonly used anthropometric indices of adiposity. However, over the past 10 years, several new anthropometric indices were developed, that more accurately correlated with body fat distribution and total fat mass. They include relative fat mass (RFM), body-roundness index (BRI), weight-adjusted-waist index and body-shape index (BSI). In the current study, we included 8295 adults from the PREVEND (Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease) observational cohort (the Netherlands), and sought to examine associations of novel as well as established adiposity indices with incident heart failure (HF). The mean age of study population was 50 ± 13 years, and approximately 50% (n = 4134) were women. Over a 11 year period, 363 HF events occurred, resulting in an overall incidence rate of 3.88 per 1000 person-years. We found that all indices of adiposity (except BSI) were significantly associated with incident HF in the total population (P < 0.001); these associations were not modified by sex (P interaction > 0.1). Amongst adiposity indices, the strongest association was observed with RFM [hazard ratio (HR) 1.67 per 1 SD increase; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.37–2.04]. This trend persisted across multiple age groups and BMI categories, and across HF subtypes [HR: 1.76, 95% CI 1.26–2.45 for HF with preserved ejection fraction; HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.25–2.06 for HF with reduced ejection fraction]. We also found that all adiposity indices (except BSI) improved the fit of a clinical HF model; improvements were, however, most evident after adding RFM and BRI (reduction in Akaike information criteria: 24.4 and 26.5 respectively). In conclusion, we report that amongst multiple anthropometric indicators of adiposity, RFM displayed the strongest association with HF risk in Dutch community dwellers. Future studies should examine the value of including RFM in HF risk prediction models.

Preventing heart failure: a position paper of the Heart Failure Association in collaboration with the European Association of Preventive Cardiology

The heart failure epidemic is growing and its prevention, in order to reduce associated hospital readmission rates and its clinical and economic burden, is a key issue in modern cardiovascular medicine. The present position paper aims to provide practical evidence-based information to support the implementation of effective preventive measures. After reviewing the most common risk factors, an overview of the population attributable risks in different continents is presented, to identify potentially effective opportunities for prevention and to inform preventive strategies. Finally, potential interventions that have been proposed and have been shown to be effective in preventing heart failure are listed.

Insomnia symptoms and incident heart failure: a population-based cohort study

AIMS

Heart failure (HF) is an ongoing epidemic and a serious clinical and public health issue. Currently, little is known about prospective associations between insomnia symptoms and HF incidence. We investigated the longitudinal associations between time-varying insomnia symptoms (difficulty initiating sleep, difficulty maintaining sleep, early-morning awakening, non-restorative sleep) and incident HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data were obtained from the Health and Retirement Study in the US for a population-representative sample of 12,761 middle-aged and older adults (age ≥ 50 years; mean [SD] age, 66.7 [9.4] years; 57.7% females) who were free from HF at baseline in 2002. Respondents were followed for 16 years for incident HF. We employed marginal structural discrete-time survival analyses to adjust for potential time-varying biological, psycho-cognitive, and behavioral factors and to account for bias due to differential loss to follow-up. At baseline, 38.4% of the respondents reported experiencing at least one insomnia symptom. During the 16-year follow-up, 1,730 respondents developed incident HF. Respondents experiencing one (hazard ratio [HR]=1.22; 95% CI: 1.08-1.38), two (HR=1.45; 95% CI: 1.21-1.72), three (HR=1.66; 95% CI: 1.37-2.02), or four (HR=1.80; 95% CI: 1.25-2.59) insomnia symptoms had a higher hazard of incident HF than asymptomatic respondents. Respondents that had trouble initiating sleep (HR=1.17; 95%CI: 1.01-1.36), maintaining sleep (HR=1.14; 95% CI: 1.01-1.28), early-morning awakening (HR=1.20; 95% CI: 1.02-1.43), or non-restorative sleep (HR=1.25; 95% CI: 1.06-1.46) had a higher hazard of incident HF than asymptomatic respondents.

CONCLUSION

Insomnia symptoms, both cumulatively and individually, are associated with incident HF. Public health awareness and screening for insomnia symptoms in at-risk populations should be encouraged to reduce HF incidence.

Internal-external cross-validation helped to evaluate the generalizability of prediction models in large clustered datasets

OBJECTIVE

To illustrate how to evaluate the need of complex strategies for developing generalizable prediction models in large clustered datasets.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We developed eight Cox regression models to estimate the risk of heart failure using a large population-level dataset. These models differed in the number of predictors, the functional form of the predictor effects (non-linear effects and interaction) and the estimation method (maximum likelihood and penalization). Internal-external cross-validation was used to evaluate the models' generalizability across the included general practices.

RESULTS

Among 871,687 individuals from 225 general practices, 43,987 (5.5%) developed heart failure during a median follow-up time of 5.8 years. For discrimination, the simplest prediction model yielded a good concordance statistic, which was not much improved by adopting complex strategies. Between-practice heterogeneity in discrimination was similar in all models. For calibration, the simplest model performed satisfactorily. Although accounting for non-linear effects and interaction slightly improved the calibration slope, it also led to more heterogeneity in the observed/expected ratio. Similar results were found in a second case study involving patients with stroke.

CONCLUSION

In large clustered datasets, prediction model studies may adopt internal-external cross-validation to evaluate the generalizability of competing models, and to identify promising modelling strategies.

Temporal trends in heart failure medication prescription in a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

We examined temporal heart failure (HF) prescription patterns in a large representative sample of real-world patients in the UK, using electronic health records (EHR).

METHODS

From primary and secondary care EHR, we identified 85 732 patients with a HF diagnosis between 2002 and 2015. Almost 50% of patients with HF were women and the median age was 79.1 (IQR 70.2-85.7) years, with age at diagnosis increasing over time.

RESULTS

We found several trends in pharmacological HF management, including increased beta blocker prescriptions over time (29% in 2002-2005 and 54% in 2013-2015), which was not observed for mineralocorticoid receptor-antagonists (MR-antagonists) (18% in 2002-2005 and 18% in 2013-2015); higher prescription rates of loop diuretics in women and elderly patients together with lower prescription rates of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and/or angiotensin II receptor blockers, beta blockers or MR-antagonists in these patients; little change in medication prescription rates occurred after 6 months of HF diagnosis and, finally, patients hospitalised for HF who had no recorded follow-up in primary care had considerably lower prescription rates compared with patients with a HF diagnosis in primary care with or without HF hospitalisation.

CONCLUSION

In the general population, the use of MR-antagonists for HF remained low and did not change throughout 13 years of follow-up. For most patients, few changes were seen in pharmacological management of HF in the 6 months following diagnosis.

Lockdown Britain: Evidence for reduced incidence and severity of some non-COVID acute medical illnesses

Large reductions in emergency department attendances and hospitalisations with non-COVID acute medical illness early during the pandemic were attributed to reluctance to seek medical help and higher referral thresholds. Here, we compare acute medical admissions with a comparison cohort from 2017. Deaths in the same geographic area were examined, and Wales-wide deaths during these 4 weeks in 2020 were compared with a seasonally matched period in 2019. There were 528 patients admitted with non-COVID illness in 2020, versus 924 in 2017 (a reduction of 43%). Deaths from non-COVID causes increased by 10.9% compared with 2017, over half this rise being from neurological causes including stroke and dementia. While far fewer patients required hospitalisation as medical emergencies, rises in local non-COVID deaths proved small. Wales-wide non-COVID deaths rose by just 1% compared with 2019. The findings suggest that changes in population behaviour and lifestyle during lockdown brought about unforeseen health benefits.

NETosis as a Pathogenic Factor for Heart Failure

Heart failure threatens the lives of patients and reduces their quality of life. Heart failure, especially heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, is closely related to systemic and local cardiac persistent chronic low-grade aseptic inflammation, microvascular damage characterized by endothelial dysfunction, oxidative stress, myocardial remodeling, and fibrosis. However, the initiation and development of persistent chronic low-grade aseptic inflammation is unexplored. Oxidative stress-mediated neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) are the main immune defense mechanism against external bacterial infections. Furthermore, NETs play important roles in noninfectious diseases. After the onset of myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation, or myocarditis, neutrophils infiltrate the damaged tissue and aggravate inflammation. In tissue injury, damage-related molecular patterns (DAMPs) may induce pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) to cause NETs, but whether NETs are directly involved in the pathogenesis and development of heart failure and the mechanism is still unclear. In this review, we analyzed the markers of heart failure and heart failure-related diseases and comorbidities, such as mitochondrial DNA, high mobility box group box 1, fibronectin extra domain A, and galectin-3, to explore their role in inducing NETs and to investigate the mechanism of PRRs, such as Toll-like receptors, receptor for advanced glycation end products, cGAS-STING, and C-X-C motif chemokine receptor 2, in activating NETosis. Furthermore, we discussed oxidative stress, especially the possibility that imbalance of thiol redox and MPO-derived HOCl promotes the production of 2-chlorofatty acid and induces NETosis, and analyzed the possibility of NETs triggering coronary microvascular thrombosis. In some heart diseases, the deletion or blocking of neutrophil-specific myeloperoxidase and peptidylarginine deiminase 4 has shown effectiveness. According to the results of current pharmacological studies, MPO and PAD4 inhibitors are effective at least for myocardial infarction, atherosclerosis, and certain autoimmune diseases, whose deterioration can lead to heart failure. This is essential for understanding NETosis as a therapeutic factor of heart failure and the related new pathophysiology and therapeutics of heart failure.

Physical activity and the risk of heart failure: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies

Although physical activity is an established protective factor for cardiovascular diseases such as ischemic heart disease and stroke, less is known with regard to the association between specific domains of physical activity and heart failure, as well as the association between cardiorespiratory fitness and heart failure. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective observational studies to clarify the relations of total physical activity, domains of physical activity and cardiorespiratory fitness to risk of heart failure. PubMed and Embase databases were searched up to January 14th, 2020. Summary relative risks (RRs) were calculated using random effects models. Twenty-nine prospective studies (36 publications) were included in the review. The summary RRs for high versus low levels were 0.77 (95% CI 0.70–0.85, I² = 49%, n = 7) for total physical activity, 0.74 (95% CI 0.68–0.81, I² = 88.1%, n = 16) for leisure-time activity, 0.66 (95% CI 0.59–0.74, I² = 0%, n = 2) for vigorous activity, 0.81 (95% CI 0.69–0.94, I² = 86%, n = 3) for walking and bicycling combined, 0.90 (95% CI 0.86–0.95, I² = 0%, n = 3) for occupational activity, and 0.31 (95% CI 0.19–0.49, I² = 96%, n = 6) for cardiorespiratory fitness. In dose–response analyses, the summary RRs were 0.89 (95% CI 0.83–0.95, I² = 67%, n = 4) per 20 MET-hours per day of total activity and 0.71 (95% CI 0.65–0.78, I² = 85%, n = 11) per 20 MET-hours per week of leisure-time activity. Nonlinear associations were observed in both analyses with a flattening of the dose–response curve at 15–20 MET-hours/week for leisure-time activity. These findings suggest that high levels of total physical activity, leisure-time activity, vigorous activity, occupational activity, walking and bicycling combined and cardiorespiratory fitness are associated with reduced risk of developing heart failure.

Heart failure in the last year: progress and perspective

Research about heart failure (HF) has made major progress in the last years. We give here an update on the most recent findings. Landmark trials have established new treatments for HF with reduced ejection fraction. Sacubitril/valsartan was superior to enalapril in PARADIGM-HF trial, and its initiation during hospitalization for acute HF or early after discharge can now be considered. More recently, new therapeutic pathways have been developed. In the DAPA-HF and EMPEROR-Reduced trials, dapagliflozin and empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite endpoint, compared with placebo [hazard ratio (HR) 0.74; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65-0.85; P < 0.001 and HR 0.75; 95% CI 0.65-0.86; P < 0.001, respectively]. Second, vericiguat, an oral soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator, reduced the composite endpoint of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization vs. placebo (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.82-0.98; P = 0.02). On the other hand, both the diagnosis and treatment of HF with preserved ejection fraction, as well as management of advanced HF and acute HF, remain challenging. A better phenotyping of patients with HF would be helpful for prognostic stratification and treatment selection. Further aspects, such as the use of devices, treatment of arrhythmias, and percutaneous treatment of valvular heart disease in patients with HF, are also discussed and reviewed in this article.

Sex-Specific Associations of Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Biomarkers With Incident Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Whether cardiovascular (CV) disease risk factors and biomarkers associate differentially with heart failure (HF) risk in men and women is unclear.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to evaluate sex-specific associations of CV risk factors and biomarkers with incident HF.

METHODS

The analysis was performed using data from 4 community-based cohorts with 12.5 years of follow-up. Participants (recruited between 1989 and 2002) were free of HF at baseline. Biomarker measurements included natriuretic peptides, cardiac troponins, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, D-dimer, fibrinogen, C-reactive protein, sST2, galectin-3, cystatin-C, and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio.

RESULTS

Among 22,756 participants (mean age 60 ± 13 years, 53% women), HF occurred in 2,095 participants (47% women). Age, smoking, type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, body mass index, atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction, left ventricular hypertrophy, and left bundle branch block were strongly associated with HF in both sexes (p < 0.001), and the combined clinical model had good discrimination in men (C-statistic = 0.80) and in women (C-statistic = 0.83). The majority of biomarkers were strongly and similarly associated with HF in both sexes. The clinical model improved modestly after adding natriuretic peptides in men (ΔC-statistic = 0.006; likelihood ratio chi-square = 146; p < 0.001), and after adding cardiac troponins in women (ΔC-statistic = 0.003; likelihood ratio chi-square = 73; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

CV risk factors are strongly and similarly associated with incident HF in both sexes, highlighting the similar importance of risk factor control in reducing HF risk in the community. There are subtle sex-related differences in the predictive value of individual biomarkers, but the overall improvement in HF risk estimation when included in a clinical HF risk prediction model is limited in both sexes.

Pathways leading to prevention of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease: An interaction model on 15 years population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

A comprehensive study on the interaction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors is critical to prevent cardiovascular events. The main focus of this study is thus to understand direct and indirect relationships between different CVD risk factors.

METHODS

A longitudinal data on adults aged ≥35 years, who were free of CVD at baseline, were used in this study. The endpoints were CVD events, whereas their measurements were demographic, lifestyle components, socio-economics, anthropometric measures, laboratory findings, quality of life status, and psychological factors. A Bayesian structural equation modelling was used to determine the relationships among 21 relevant factors associated with total CVD, stroke, acute coronary syndrome (ACS), and fatal CVDs.

RESULTS

In this study, a total of 3161 individuals with complete information were involved in the study. A total of 407 CVD events, with an average age of 54.77(10.66) years, occurred during follow-up. The causal associations between six latent variables were identified in the causal network for fatal and non-fatal CVDs. Lipid profile, with the coefficient of 0.26 (0.01), influenced the occurrence of CVD events as the most critical factor, while it was indirectly mediated through risky behaviours and comorbidities. Lipid profile at baseline was influenced by a wide range of other protective factors, such as quality of life and healthy lifestyle components.

CONCLUSIONS

Analysing a causal network of risk factors revealed the flow of information in direct and indirect paths. It also determined predictors and demonstrated the utility of integrating multi-factor data in a complex framework to identify novel preventable pathways to reduce the risk of CVDs.

The impact of COVID-19 on heart failure hospitalization and management: report from a Heart Failure Unit in London during the peak of the pandemic

AIMS

To examine the impact of COVID-19 on acute heart failure (AHF) hospitalization rates, clinical characteristics and management of patients admitted to a tertiary Heart Failure Unit in London during the peak of the pandemic.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data from King's College Hospital, London, reported to the National Heart Failure Audit for England and Wales, between 2 March-19 April 2020 were compared both to a pre-COVID cohort and the corresponding time periods in 2017 to 2019 with respect to absolute hospitalization rates. Furthermore, we performed detailed comparison of patients hospitalized during the COVID-19 pandemic and patients presenting in the same period in 2019 with respect to clinical characteristics and management during the index admission. A significantly lower admission rate for AHF was observed during the study period compared to all other included time periods. Patients admitted during the COVID-19 pandemic had higher rates of New York Heart Association III or IV symptoms (96% vs. 77%, P = 0.03) and severe peripheral oedema (39% vs. 14%, P = 0.01). We did not observe any differences in inpatient management, including place of care and pharmacological management of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction.

CONCLUSION

Incident AHF hospitalization significantly declined in our centre during the COVID-19 pandemic, but hospitalized patients had more severe symptoms at admission. Further studies are needed to investigate whether the incidence of AHF declined or patients did not present to hospital while the national lockdown and social distancing restrictions were in place. From a public health perspective, it is imperative to ascertain whether this will be associated with worse long-term outcomes.

A registry-based algorithm to predict ejection fraction in patients with heart failure

Aims

Left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) is required to categorize heart failure (HF) [i.e. HF with preserved (HFpEF), mid‐range (HFmrEF), and reduced (HFrEF) EF] but is often not captured in population‐based cohorts or non‐HF registries. The aim was to create an algorithm that identifies EF subphenotypes for research purposes.

Methods and results

We included 42 061 HF patients from the Swedish Heart Failure Registry. As primary analysis, we performed two logistic regression models including 22 variables to predict (i) EF≥ vs. <50% and (ii) EF≥ vs. <40%. In the secondary analysis, we performed a multivariable multinomial analysis with 22 variables to create a model for all three separate EF subphenotypes: HFrEF vs. HFmrEF vs. HFpEF. The models were validated in the database from the CHECK‐HF study, a cross‐sectional survey of 10 627 patients from the Netherlands. The C‐statistic (discrimination) was 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77–0.78] for EF ≥50% and 0.76 (95% CI 0.75–0.76) for EF ≥40%. Similar results were achieved for HFrEF and HFpEF in the multinomial model, but the C‐statistic for HFmrEF was lower: 0.63 (95% CI 0.63–0.64). The external validation showed similar discriminative ability to the development cohort.

Conclusions

Routine clinical characteristics could potentially be used to identify different EF subphenotypes in databases where EF is not readily available. Accuracy was good for the prediction of HFpEF and HFrEF but lower for HFmrEF. The proposed algorithm enables more effective research on HF in the big data setting.

Risk Factors for Heart Failure in the Community: Differences by Age and Ejection Fraction

BACKGROUND

Differences in comorbid conditions in patients with heart failure compared with population controls, and whether differences exist by type of heart failure or age, have not been well documented.

METHODS

The prevalence of 17 chronic conditions were obtained in 2643 patients with incident heart failure from 2000 to 2013 and controls matched 1:1 on sex and age from Olmsted County, Minnesota. Logistic regression determined associations of each condition with heart failure.

RESULTS

Among 2643 matched pairs (mean age 76.2 years, 45.6% men), the comorbidities with the largest attributable risk of heart failure were arrhythmia (48.7%), hypertension (28.4%), and coronary artery disease (33.9%); together these explained 73.0% of heart failure. Similar associations were observed for patients with reduced and preserved ejection fraction, with the exception of hypertension. The risk of heart failure attributable to hypertension was 2-fold higher in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (38.7%) than in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (17.8%). Hypertension, coronary artery disease, arrhythmia, and diabetes were more strongly associated with heart failure in younger (≤75 years) compared to older (>75 years) persons.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with heart failure have a higher prevalence of many chronic conditions than controls. Similar associations were observed in patients with reduced and preserved ejection fraction, with the exception of hypertension, which was more strongly associated with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. Finally, some cardiometabolic risk factors were more strongly associated with heart failure in younger persons, highlighting the importance of optimizing prevention and treatment of risk factors and, in particular, cardiometabolic risk factors.

Informative missingness in electronic health record systems: the curse of knowing

Electronic health records provide a potentially valuable data source of information for developing clinical prediction models. However, missing data are common in routinely collected health data and often missingness is informative. Informative missingness can be incorporated in a clinical prediction model, for example by including a separate category of a predictor variable that has missing values. The predictive performance of such a model depends on the transportability of the missing data mechanism, which may be compromised once the model is deployed in practice and the predictive value of certain variables becomes known. Using synthetic data, this phenomenon is explained and illustrated.

Risk for Heart Failure: The Opportunity for Prevention With the American Heart Association's Life's Simple 7

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study is to determine whether combinations of specific Life's Simple 7 (LS7) components are associated with reduced risk for heart failure (HF).

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association recommends the concept of LS7: healthy behaviors that have been shown to reduce cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

A total of 37,803 participants from the EPIC-NL (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands) cohort were included (mean age: 49.4 ± 11.9 years, 74.7% women). The LS7 score ranged from 0 to 14 and was calculated by assigning 0, 1, or 2 points for smoking, physical activity, body mass index, diet, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and blood glucose. An overall ideal score (11 to 14 points) was present in 23.2% of participants, an intermediate score (9 or 10 points) in 35.3%, and an inadequate score (0 to 8 points) in 41.5%.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up period of 15.2 years (interquartile range: 14.1 to 16.5 years), 690 participants (1.8%) developed HF. In Cox proportional hazards models, ideal and intermediate LS7 scores were associated with reduced risk for HF compared with the inadequate category (hazard ratio: 0.45 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.34 to 0.60] and hazard ratio: 0.53 [95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64], respectively). Our analyses show that combinations with specific LS7 components, notably glucose, body mass index, smoking, and blood pressure, are associated with a lower incidence of HF.

CONCLUSIONS

A healthy lifestyle, as reflected in an ideal LS7 score, was associated with a 55% lower risk for HF compared with an inadequate LS7 score. Preventive strategies that target combinations of specific LS7 components could have a significant impact on decreasing incident HF in the population at large.