Integrating viability and fecundity selection to illuminate the adaptive nature of genetic clines

Early Life History Divergence Mediates Elevational Adaptation in a Perennial Alpine Plant

Spatially divergent natural selection can drive adaptation to contrasting environments and thus the evolution of ecotypes. In perennial plants, selection shapes life history traits by acting on subsequent life stages, each contributing to fitness. While evidence of adaptation in perennial plants is common, the expression of life history traits is rarely characterized, limiting our understanding of their role in adaptive evolution. We conducted a multi-year reciprocal transplant experiment with seedlings from low and high elevation populations of the alpine carnation Dianthus carthusianorum to test for adaptation linked to contrasting climates and inferred specific contributions of early life stages to fitness. We assessed genotype by environment interactions in single fitness components, applied matrix population models to achieve an integrated estimate of fitness through population growth rates, and performed trade-off analyses to investigate the advantage of alternate life history traits across environments. We found evidence of genotype by environment interactions consistent with elevational adaptation at multiple stages of the early life cycle. Estimates of population growth rates corroborated a strong advantage of the local genotype. Early reproduction and survival are alternate major contributors to adaptation at low and high elevation, respectively, and are linked by trade-offs that underlie the evolution of divergent life history traits across environments. While these traits have a strong genetic basis, foreign populations express co-gradient plasticity, reflecting the adaptive strategy of the local populations. Our study reveals that selection associated to climate has driven the evolution of divergent life histories and the formation of elevational ecotypes. While the high energy environment and strong competition favor investment in early reproduction at low elevation, limiting resources favor a more conservative strategy relying on self-maintenance at high elevation. The co-gradient plasticity expressed by high-elevation populations may facilitate their persistence under warming climatic conditions.

Short-term fluctuating and long-term divergent selection on sympatric Monkeyflowers: insights from decade-spanning reciprocal transplants

Sympatric species are often locally adapted to distinct microhabitats. However, temporal variation may cause local maladaptation and species boundary breakdown, especially during extreme climatic events leading to episodic selection. Repeated reciprocal transplants can reveal the interplay between short and long-term patterns of natural selection. To examine evolutionary trajectories of sympatric Monkeyflowers adapted to different niches, Mimulus guttatus and M. laciniatus, we performed three replicated transplants and combined them with previous experiments to leverage a dataset of five transplants spanning 10 years. We performed phenotypic selection analyses on parents and hybrids in parental habitats in Yosemite NP, CA during years of drastically differing snowpack. If there is ecological isolation, then we predicted divergent phenotypic selection between habitats in line with species' differences and local adaptation. We found interannual fluctuations in phenotypic selection, often in unpredicted directions. However, a combined-year analysis detected longer-term divergent selection on flowering time, a key temporally isolating and adaptative trait, suggesting that selection may reinforce species boundaries despite short-term fluctuations. Finally, we found temporal variation in local adaptation with M. laciniatus locally adapted in low snowpack years, while an extremely high snowpack year contributed to average local maladaptation of M. guttatus.

Elevated [CO2] and temperature augment gas exchange and shift the fitness landscape in a montane forb

Climate change is simultaneously increasing carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]) and temperature. These factors could interact to influence plant physiology and performance. Alternatively, increased [CO2] may offset costs associated with elevated temperatures. Furthermore, the interaction between elevated temperature and [CO2] may differentially affect populations from along an elevational gradient and disrupt local adaptation. We conducted a multifactorial growth chamber experiment to examine the interactive effects of temperature and [CO2] on fitness and ecophysiology of diverse accessions of Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae) sourced from a broad elevational gradient in Colorado. We tested whether increased [CO2] would enhance photosynthesis across accessions, and whether warmer conditions would depress the fitness of high-elevation accessions owing to steep reductions in temperature with increasing elevation in this system. Elevational clines in [CO2] are not as evident, making it challenging to predict how locally adapted ecotypes will respond to elevated [CO2]. This experiment revealed that elevated [CO2] increased photosynthesis and intrinsic water use efficiency across all accessions. However, these instantaneous responses to treatments did not translate to changes in fitness. Instead, increased temperatures reduced the probability of reproduction for all accessions. Elevated [CO2] and increased temperatures interacted to shift the adaptive landscape, favoring lower elevation accessions for the probability of survival and fecundity. Our results suggest that elevated temperatures and [CO2] associated with climate change could have severe negative consequences, especially for high-elevation populations.

Fluctuating selection in a Monkeyflower hybrid zone

While hybridization was viewed as a hindrance to adaptation and speciation by early evolutionary biologists, recent studies have demonstrated the importance of hybridization in facilitating evolutionary processes. However, it is still not well-known what role spatial and temporal variation in natural selection play in the maintenance of naturally occurring hybrid zones. To identify whether hybridization is adaptive between two closely related monkeyflower species, Mimulus guttatus and Mimulus laciniatus, we performed repeated reciprocal transplants between natural hybrid and pure species' populations. We planted parental genotypes along with multiple experimental hybrid generations in a dry (2021) and extremely wet (2023) year in the Sierra Nevada, CA. By taking fine scale environmental measurements, we found that the environment of the hybrid zone is more similar to M. laciniatus's seasonally dry rocky outcrop habitat than M. guttatus's moist meadows. In our transplants hybridization does not appear to be maintained by a consistent fitness advantage of hybrids over parental species in hybrid zones, but rather a lack of strong selection against hybrids. We also found higher fitness of the drought adapted species, M. laciniatus, than M. guttatus in both species' habitats, as well as phenotypic selection for M. laciniatus-like traits in the hybrid habitat in the dry year of our experiment. These findings suggest that in this system hybridization might function to introduce drought-adapted traits and genes from M. laciniatus into M. guttatus, specifically in years with limited soil moisture. However, we also find evidence of genetic incompatibilities in second generation hybrids in the wetter year, which may balance a selective advantage of M. laciniatus introgression. Therefore, we find that hybridization in this system is both potentially adaptive and costly, and that the interaction of positive and negative selection likely determines patterns of gene flow between these Mimulus species.

A Long-Lived Alpine Perennial Advances Flowering under Warmer Conditions but Not Enough to Maintain Reproductive Success

AbstractAssessing whether phenological shifts in response to climate change confer a fitness advantage requires investigating the relationships among phenology, fitness, and environmental drivers of selection. Despite widely documented advancements in phenology with warming climate, we lack empirical estimates of how selection on phenology varies in response to continuous climate drivers or how phenological shifts in response to warming conditions affect fitness. We leverage an unusual long-term dataset with repeated, individual measurements of phenology and reproduction in a long-lived alpine plant. We analyze phenotypic plasticity in flowering phenology in relation to two climate drivers, snowmelt timing and growing degree days (GDDs). Plants flower earlier with increased GDDs and earlier snowmelt, and directional selection also favors earlier flowering under these conditions. However, reproduction still declines with warming and early snowmelt, even when flowering is early. Furthermore, the steepness of this reproductive decline increases dramatically with warming conditions, resulting in very little fruit production regardless of flowering time once GDDs exceed approximately 225 degree days or snowmelt occurs before May 15. Even though advancing phenology confers a fitness advantage relative to stasis, these shifts are insufficient to maintain reproduction under warming, highlighting limits to the potential benefits of phenological plasticity under climate change.

Defining fitness in evolutionary ecology

An understanding of biological fitness is central to theory and practice in ecology and evolution, yet fitness remains an elusive concept to define and challenging to measure accurately. Fitness reflects an individual's ability to pass its alleles on to subsequent generations. Researchers often quantify proxies for fitness, such as survival, growth or reproductive success. However, it can be difficult to determine lifetime fitness, especially for species with long lifespans. The abiotic and biotic environment strongly affects the expression of fitness, which means that fitness components can vary through both space and time. This spatial and temporal heterogeneity results in the impressive range of adaptations that we see in nature. Here, we review definitions of fitness and approaches to measuring fitness at the level of genes, individuals, genotypes, and populations and highlight that fitness is a key concept linking ecological and evolutionary thought.

Pollinator and habitat-mediated selection as potential contributors to ecological speciation in two closely related species

In ecological speciation, incipient species diverge due to natural selection that is ecologically based. In flowering plants, different pollinators could mediate that selection (pollinator-mediated divergent selection) or other features of the environment that differ between habitats of 2 species could do so (environment-mediated divergent selection). Although these mechanisms are well understood, they have received little rigorous testing, as few studies of divergent selection across sites of closely related species include both floral traits that influence pollination and vegetative traits that influence survival. This study employed common gardens in sites of the 2 parental species and a hybrid site, each containing advanced generation hybrids along with the parental species, to test these forms of ecological speciation in plants of the genus Ipomopsis. A total of 3 vegetative traits (specific leaf area, leaf trichomes, and photosynthetic water-use efficiency) and 5 floral traits (corolla length and width, anther insertion, petal color, and nectar production) were analyzed for impacts on fitness components (survival to flowering and seeds per flower, respectively). These traits exhibited strong clines across the elevational gradient in the hybrid zone, with narrower clines in theory reflecting stronger selection or higher genetic variance. Plants with long corollas and inserted anthers had higher seeds per flower at the Ipomopsis tenuituba site, whereas selection favored the reverse condition at the Ipomopsis aggregata site, a signature of divergent selection. In contrast, no divergent selection due to variation in survival was detected on any vegetative trait. Selection within the hybrid zone most closely resembled selection within the I. aggregata site. Across traits, the strength of divergent selection was not significantly correlated with width of the cline, which was better predicted by evolvability (standardized genetic variance). These results support the role of pollinator-mediated divergent selection in ecological speciation and illustrate the importance of genetic variance in determining divergence across hybrid zones.

Temporal Variation in Selection Influences Microgeographic Local Adaptation

AbstractEcological heterogeneity can lead to local adaptation when populations exhibit fitness trade-offs among habitats. However, the degree to which local adaptation is affected by the spatial and temporal scale of environmental variation is poorly understood. A multiyear reciprocal transplant experiment was performed with populations of the annual plant Leptosiphon parviflorus living on adjacent serpentine and nonserpentine soil. Local adaptation over this small geographic scale was observed, but there were differences in the temporal variability of selection across habitats. On serpentine soil, the local population had a consistently large survival advantage, presumably as a result of the temporal stability in selection imposed by soil cation content. In contrast, a fecundity advantage was observed for the sandstone population on its native soil type but only in the two study years with the highest rainfall. A manipulative greenhouse experiment demonstrated that the fitness advantage of the sandstone population in its native soil type depends critically on water availability. The temporal variability in local adaptation driven by variation in precipitation suggests that continued drought conditions have the potential to erode local adaptation in these populations. These results show how different selective factors can influence spatial and temporal patterns of variation in fitness trade-offs.

Demographic consequences of an extreme heat wave are mitigated by spatial heterogeneity in an annual monkeyflower

Heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense with climate change, but the demographic and evolutionary consequences of heat waves are rarely investigated in herbaceous plant species. We examine the consequences of a short but extreme heat wave in Oregon populations of the common yellow monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus) by leveraging a common garden experiment planted with range-wide populations and observational studies of 11 local populations. In the common garden, 89% of seedlings died during the heat wave including >96% of seedlings from geographically local populations. Some populations from hotter and drier environments had higher fitness, however, others from comparable environments performed poorly. Observational studies of local natural populations drastically differed in the consequences of the heat wave-one population was completely extirpated and nearly half had a >50% decrease in fitness. However, a few populations had greater fitness during the heat wave year. Differences in mortality corresponded to the impact of the heat wave on soil moisture-retention of soil moisture throughout the heat wave led to greater survivorship. Our results suggest that not all populations experience the same intensity or degree of mortality during extreme events and such heterogeneity could be important for genetic rescue or to facilitate the distribution of adaptive variants throughout the region.

Seasonal specialization drives divergent population dynamics in two closely related butterflies

Seasons impose different selection pressures on organisms through contrasting environmental conditions. How such seasonal evolutionary conflict is resolved in organisms whose lives span across seasons remains underexplored. Through field experiments, laboratory work, and citizen science data analyses, we investigate this question using two closely related butterflies (Pieris rapae and P. napi). Superficially, the two butterflies appear highly ecologically similar. Yet, the citizen science data reveal that their fitness is partitioned differently across seasons. Pieris rapae have higher population growth during the summer season but lower overwintering success than do P. napi. We show that these differences correspond to the physiology and behavior of the butterflies. Pieris rapae outperform P. napi at high temperatures in several growth season traits, reflected in microclimate choice by ovipositing wild females. Instead, P. rapae have higher winter mortality than do P. napi. We conclude that the difference in population dynamics between the two butterflies is driven by seasonal specialization, manifested as strategies that maximize gains during growth seasons and minimize harm during adverse seasons, respectively.

Herbivory selects for tolerance and constitutive defence across stages of community succession

Plants defend themselves from herbivory by either reducing damage (resistance) or minimizing its negative fitness effects with compensatory growth (tolerance). Herbivore pressure can fluctuate from year to year in an early secondary successional community, which can create temporal variation in selection for defence traits. We manipulated insect herbivory and successional age of the community as agents of natural selection in replicated common gardens with the perennial herb Solidago altissima. In these genotypic selection experiments, herbivory consistently selected for better defended plants in both successional communities. Herbivore suppression increased plant survival and the probability of flowering only in mid-succession. Despite these substantial differences in the effects of herbivory between early and mid-succession, the selection on defence traits did not change. Succession affected selection only on aboveground biomass, with positive selection in early but not mid-succession, suggesting an important role of competition in the selective environment. These results demonstrate that changes in the community that affect key life-history traits in an individual species can occur over very short timescales in a dynamic secondary successional environment. The resulting community context-driven variation in natural selection may be an important, yet overlooked, contributor to adaptive mosaics across populations.

Strong evidence for positive and negative correlational selection revealed by recreating ancestral variation

The study of adaptation helps explain biodiversity and predict future evolution. Yet the process of adaptation can be difficult to observe due to limited phenotypic variation in contemporary populations. Furthermore, the scarcity of male fitness estimates has made it difficult to both understand adaptation and evaluate sexual conflict hypotheses. We addressed both issues in our study of two anther position traits in wild radish (Raphanus raphanistrum): anther exsertion (long filament - corolla tube lengths) and anther separation (long - short filament lengths). These traits affect pollination efficiency and are particularly interesting due to the unusually high correlations among their component traits. We measured selection through male and female fitness on wild radish plants from populations artificially selected to recreate ancestral variation in each anther trait. We found little evidence for conflicts between male and female function. We found strong evidence for stabilizing selection on anther exsertion and disruptive selection on anther separation, indicating positive and negative correlational selection on the component traits. Intermediate levels of exsertion are likely an adaptation to best contact small bees. The function of anther separation is less clear, but future studies might investigate pollen placement on pollinators and compare species possessing multiple stamen types.

Evolution of thermal performance curves: A meta-analysis of selection experiments

Temperatures are increasing due to global changes, putting biodiversity at risk. Organisms are faced with a limited set of options to cope with this situation: adapt, disperse or die. We here focus on the first possibility, more specifically, on evolutionary adaptations to temperature. Ectotherms are usually characterized by a hump-shaped relationship between fitness and temperature, a non-linear reaction norm that is referred to as thermal performance curve (TPC). To understand and predict impacts of global change, we need to know whether and how such TPCs evolve. Therefore, we performed a systematic literature search and a statistical meta-analysis focusing on experimental evolution and artificial selection studies. This focus allows us to directly quantify relative fitness responses to temperature selection by calculating fitness differences between TPCs from ancestral and derived populations after thermal selection. Out of 7561 publications screened, we found 47 studies corresponding to our search criteria representing taxa across the tree of life, from bacteria, to plants and vertebrates. We show that, independently of species identity, the studies we found report a positive response to temperature selection. Considering entire TPC shapes, adaptation to higher temperatures traded off with fitness at lower temperatures, leading to niche shifts. Effects were generally stronger in unicellular organisms. By contrast, we do not find statistical support for the often discussed "Hotter is better" hypothesis. While our meta-analysis provides evidence for adaptive potential of TPCs across organisms, it also highlights that more experimental work is needed, especially for under-represented taxa, such as plants and non-model systems.

Taking quantitative genomics into the wild

We organized this special issue to highlight new work and review recent advances at the cutting edge of 'wild quantitative genomics'. In this editorial, we will present some history of wild quantitative genetic and genomic studies, before discussing the main themes in the papers published in this special issue and highlighting the future outlook of this dynamic field.

Local adaptation: Causal agents of selection and adaptive trait divergence

Divergent selection across the landscape can favor the evolution of local adaptation in populations experiencing contrasting conditions. Local adaptation is widely observed in a diversity of taxa, yet we have a surprisingly limited understanding of the mechanisms that give rise to it. For instance, few have experimentally confirmed the biotic and abiotic variables that promote local adaptation, and fewer yet have identified the phenotypic targets of selection that mediate local adaptation. Here, we highlight critical gaps in our understanding of the process of local adaptation and discuss insights emerging from in-depth investigations of the agents of selection that drive local adaptation, the phenotypes they target, and the genetic basis of these phenotypes. We review historical and contemporary methods for assessing local adaptation, explore whether local adaptation manifests differently across life history, and evaluate constraints on local adaptation.

Water and nutrient availability exert selection on reproductive phenology

PREMISE

Global change has changed resource availability to plants, which could shift the adaptive landscape. We hypothesize that novel water and nutrient availability combinations alter patterns of natural selection on reproductive phenology in Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae) and influence the evolution of local adaptation.

METHODS

We conducted a multifactorial greenhouse study using 35 accessions of B. stricta sourced from a broad elevational gradient in the Rocky Mountains. We exposed full siblings to three soil water and two nutrient availability treatment levels, reflecting current and projected future conditions. In addition, we quantified fitness (seed count) and four phenological traits: the timing of first flowering, the duration of flowering, and height and leaf number at flowering.

RESULTS

Selection favored early flowering and longer duration of flowering, and the genetic correlation between these traits accorded with the direction of selection. In most treatments, we found selection for increased height, but selection on leaf number depended on water availability, with selection favoring more leaves in well-watered conditions and fewer leaves under severe drought. Low-elevation genotypes had the greatest fitness under drought stress, consistent with local adaptation.

CONCLUSIONS

We found evidence of strong selection on these heritable traits. Furthermore, the direction and strength of selection on size at flowering depended on the variable measured (height vs. leaf number). Finally, selection often favored both early flowering and a longer duration of flowering. Selection on these two components of phenology can be difficult to disentangle due to tight genetic correlations.

Selection on early survival does not explain germination rate clines in Mimulus cardinalis

PREMISE

Many traits covary with environmental gradients to form phenotypic clines. While local adaptation to the environment can generate phenotypic clines, other nonadaptive processes may also. If local adaptation causes phenotypic clines, then the direction of genotypic selection on traits should shift from one end of the cline to the other. Traditionally, genotypic selection on non-Gaussian traits like germination rate have been hampered because it is challenging to measure their genetic variance.

METHODS

Here we used quantitative genetics and reciprocal transplants to test whether a previously discovered cline in germination rate showed additional signatures of adaptation in the scarlet monkeyflower (Mimulus cardinalis). We measured genotypic and population level covariation between germination rate and early survival, a component of fitness. We developed a novel discrete log-normal model to estimate genetic variance in germination rate.

RESULTS

Contrary to our adaptive hypothesis, we found no evidence that genetic variation in germination rate contributed to variation in early survival. Across populations, southern populations in both gardens germinated earlier and survived more.

CONCLUSIONS

Southern populations have higher early survival but it is not caused by faster germination. This pattern is consistent with nonadaptive forces driving the phenotypic cline in germination rate, but future work will need to assess whether there is selection at other life stages. This statistical framework should help expand quantitative genetic analyses for other waiting-time traits.

Environmental contributions to the evolution of trait differences in Geum triflorum: Implications for restoration

PREMISE

How the environment influences the distribution of trait variation across a species' range has important implications for seed transfer during restoration. Evolution across environments could influence fitness when individuals are transferred into new environments. Here, we evaluate the role the environment has had on the distribution of genetic variance for traits important to adaptation.

METHODS

In a common garden experiment, we quantified trait differentiation for populations of Geum triflorum sourced from three distinct ecoregions and evaluated the ability of climate to predict trait variation. Populations were sourced from the Manitoba and Great Lake alvar ecoregions that experience predictable extremes in seasonal water availability and the prairie ecoregion which exhibits unpredictable changes in water availability.

RESULTS

Plants sourced from alvar ecoregions exhibited smaller but more stomata and greater intrinsic water-use efficiency relative to prairie plant populations, supporting the evolution of ecotypic differences. Estimates of standing genetic variance and heritable genetic variation for quantitative traits suggest alvar populations have greater adaptive potential. However, low evolvability suggests all populations likely have limited capacity to evolve in response to environmental change.

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight the importance of the environment in influencing the evolution and distribution of genetic differences across populations used as seed sources for restoration. Additionally, these data may inform recommendations for seed transfer across novel environments and our expectations of populations' adaptive potential.

The Boechera model system for evolutionary ecology

Model systems in biology expand the research capacity of individuals and the community. Closely related to Arabidopsis, the genus Boechera has emerged as an important ecological model owing to the ability to integrate across molecular, functional, and eco-evolutionary approaches. Boechera species are broadly distributed in relatively undisturbed habitats predominantly in western North America and provide one of the few experimental systems for identification of ecologically important genes through genome-wide association studies and investigations of selection with plants in their native habitats. The ecologically, evolutionarily, and agriculturally important trait of apomixis (asexual reproduction via seeds) is common in the genus, and field experiments suggest that abiotic and biotic environments shape the evolution of sex. To date, population genetic studies have focused on the widespread species B. stricta, detailing population divergence and demographic history. Molecular and ecological studies show that balancing selection maintains genetic variation in ~10% of the genome, and ecological trade-offs contribute to complex trait variation for herbivore resistance, flowering phenology, and drought tolerance. Microbiome analyses have shown that host genotypes influence leaf and root microbiome composition, and the soil microbiome influences flowering phenology and natural selection. Furthermore, Boechera offers numerous opportunities for investigating biological responses to global change. In B. stricta, climate change has induced a shift of >2 weeks in the timing of first flowering since the 1970s, altered patterns of natural selection, generated maladaptation in previously locally-adapted populations, and disrupted life history trade-offs. Here we review resources and results for this eco-evolutionary model system and discuss future research directions.

A Pleiotropic Flowering Time QTL Exhibits Gene-by-Environment Interaction for Fitness in a Perennial Grass

Appropriate flowering time is a crucial adaptation impacting fitness in natural plant populations. Although the genetic basis of flowering variation has been extensively studied, its mechanisms in nonmodel organisms and its adaptive value in the field are still poorly understood. Here, we report new insights into the genetic basis of flowering time and its effect on fitness in Panicum hallii, a native perennial grass. Genetic mapping in populations derived from inland and coastal ecotypes identified flowering time quantitative trait loci (QTL) and many exhibited extensive QTL-by-environment interactions. Patterns of segregation within recombinant hybrids provide strong support for directional selection driving ecotypic divergence in flowering time. A major QTL on chromosome 5 (q-FT5) was detected in all experiments. Fine-mapping and expression studies identified a gene with orthology to a rice FLOWERING LOCUS T-like 9 (PhFTL9) as the candidate underlying q-FT5. We used a reciprocal transplant experiment to test for local adaptation and the specific impact of q-FT5 on performance. We did not observe local adaptation in terms of fitness tradeoffs when contrasting ecotypes in home versus away habitats. However, we observed that the coastal allele of q-FT5 conferred a fitness advantage only in its local habitat but not at the inland site. Sequence analyses identified an excess of low-frequency polymorphisms at the PhFTL9 promoter in the inland lineage, suggesting a role for either selection or population expansion on promoter evolution. Together, our findings demonstrate the genetic basis of flowering variation in a perennial grass and provide evidence for conditional neutrality underlying flowering time divergence.

Post-introduction evolution of a rapid life-history strategy in a newly invasive plant

A central question in invasion biology is whether adaptive trait evolution following species introduction promotes invasiveness. A growing number of common-garden experiments document phenotypic differences between native- and introduced-range plants, suggesting that adaptive evolution in the new range may indeed contribute to the success of invasive plants. Yet these studies are often subject to methodological pitfalls, resulting in weak evidence for post-introduction adaptive trait evolution and leaving uncertain its role in the invasion process. In a common-garden glasshouse study, we compared the growth, life-history, and reproductive traits of 35 native- and introduced-range Polygonum cespitosum populations. We used complementary approaches including climate-matching, standardizing parental conditions, selection analysis, and testing for trait-environment relationships to determine whether traits that increase invasiveness adaptively evolved in the species' new range. We found that the majority of introduced-range populations exhibited a novel trait syndrome consisting of a fast-paced life history and concomitant sparse, reduced growth form. Selection analysis confirmed that this trait syndrome led to markedly higher fitness (propagule production) over a limited growing season characteristic of regions within the introduced range. Additionally, several growth and reproductive traits showed temperature-based clines consistent with adaptive evolution in the new range. Combined, these results indicate that, subsequent to its introduction to North America over 100 generations ago, P. cespitosum has evolved key traits that maximize propagule production. These changes may in part explain the species' recent transition to invasiveness, illustrating how post-introduction evolution may contribute to the invasion process.

Evolution in response to climate in the native and introduced ranges of a globally distributed plant

The extent to which species can adapt to spatiotemporal climatic variation in their native and introduced ranges remains unresolved. To address this, we examined how clines in cyanogenesis (hydrogen cyanide [HCN] production-an antiherbivore defense associated with decreased tolerance to freezing) have shifted in response to climatic variation in space and time over a 60-year period in both the native and introduced ranges of Trifolium repens. HCN production is a polymorphic trait controlled by variation at two Mendelian loci (Ac and Li). Using phenotypic assays, we estimated within-population frequencies of HCN production and dominant alleles at both loci (i.e., Ac and Li) from 10,575 plants sampled from 131 populations on five continents, and then compared these frequencies to those from historical data collected in the 1950s. There were no clear relationships between changes in the frequency of HCN production, Ac, or Li and changes in temperature between contemporary and historical samples. We did detect evidence of continued evolution to temperature gradients in the introduced range, whereby the slope of contemporary clines for HCN and Ac in relation to winter temperature became steeper than historical clines and more similar to native clines. These results suggest that cyanogenesis clines show no clear changes through time in response to global warming, but introduced populations continue to adapt to their contemporary environments.

Multivariate selection mediated by aridity predicts divergence of drought-resistant traits along natural aridity gradients of an invasive weed

Geographical variation in the environment underpins selection for local adaptation and evolutionary divergence among populations. Because many environmental conditions vary across species' ranges, identifying the specific environmental variables underlying local adaptation is profoundly challenging. We tested whether natural selection mediated by aridity predicts clinal divergence among invasive populations of capeweed (Arctotheca calendula) that established and spread across southern Australia during the last two centuries. Using common garden experiments with two environmental treatments (wet and dry) that mimic aridity conditions across capeweed's invasive range, we estimated clinal divergence and effects of aridity on fitness and multivariate phenotypic selection in populations sampled along aridity gradients in Australia. We show that: (1) capeweed populations have relatively high fitness in aridity environments similar to their sampling locations; (2) the magnitude and direction of selection strongly differs between wet and dry treatments, with drought stress increasing the strength of selection; and (3) differences in directional selection between wet and dry treatments predict patterns of clinal divergence across the aridity gradient, particularly for traits affecting biomass, flowering phenology and putative antioxidant expression. Our results suggest that aridity-mediated selection contributes to trait diversification among invasive capeweed populations, possibly facilitating the expansion of capeweed across southern Australia.

Phenotypic plasticity and selection on leaf traits in response to snowmelt timing and summer precipitation

Vegetative traits of plants can respond directly to changes in the environment, such as those occurring under climate change. That phenotypic plasticity could be adaptive, maladaptive, or neutral. We manipulated the timing of spring snowmelt and amount of summer precipitation in factorial combination and examined responses of specific leaf area (SLA), trichome density, leaf water content (LWC), photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) in the subalpine herb Ipomopsis aggregata. The experiment was repeated in three years differing in natural timing of snowmelt. To examine natural selection, we used survival, relative growth rate, and flowering as fitness indices. A 50% reduction in summer precipitation reduced stomatal conductance and increased iWUE, and doubled precipitation increased LWC. Combining natural and experimental variation, earlier snowmelt reduced soil moisture, photosynthetic rate and stomatal conductance, and increased trichome density and iWUE. Precipitation reduction reversed the mortality selection favoring high stomatal conductance under normal and doubled precipitation, and higher LWC improved growth. Earlier snowmelt is a strong signal of climate change and can change expression of leaf morphology and gas exchange traits, just as reduced precipitation can. Stomatal conductance and SLA showed adaptive plasticity under some conditions.

Genetic trade-offs underlie divergent life history strategies for local adaptation in white clover

Local adaptation is common in plants, yet characterization of its underlying genetic basis is rare in herbaceous perennials. Moreover, while many plant species exhibit intraspecific chemical defence polymorphisms, their importance for local adaptation remains poorly understood. We examined the genetic architecture of local adaptation in a perennial, obligately-outcrossing herbaceous legume, white clover (Trifolium repens). This widespread species displays a well-studied chemical defence polymorphism for cyanogenesis (HCN release following tissue damage) and has evolved climate-associated cyanogenesis clines throughout its range. Two biparental F₂  mapping populations, derived from three parents collected in environments spanning the U.S. latitudinal species range (Duluth, MN, St. Louis, MO and Gainesville, FL), were grown in triplicate for two years in reciprocal common garden experiments in the parental environments (6,012 total plants). Vegetative growth and reproductive fitness traits displayed trade-offs across reciprocal environments, indicating local adaptation. Genetic mapping of fitness traits revealed a genetic architecture characterized by allelic trade-offs between environments, with 100% and 80% of fitness QTL in the two mapping populations showing significant QTL×E interactions, consistent with antagonistic pleiotropy. Across the genome there were three hotspots of QTL colocalization. Unexpectedly, we found little evidence that the cyanogenesis polymorphism contributes to local adaptation. Instead, divergent life history strategies in reciprocal environments were major fitness determinants: selection favoured early investment in flowering at the cost of multiyear survival in the southernmost site versus delayed flowering and multiyear persistence in the northern environments. Our findings demonstrate that multilocus genetic trade-offs contribute to contrasting life history characteristics that allow for local adaptation in this outcrossing herbaceous perennial.

Selection favors adaptive plasticity in a long-term reciprocal transplant experiment

Spatial and temporal environmental variation can favor the evolution of adaptive phenotypic plasticity, such that genotypes alter their phenotypes in response to local conditions to maintain fitness across heterogeneous landscapes. When individuals show greater fitness in one habitat than another, asymmetric migration can restrict adaptation to the lower quality environment. In these cases, selection is predicted to favor traits that enhance fitness in the higher-quality (source) habitat at the expense of fitness in the marginal (sink) habitat. Here, we test whether plasticity is adaptive in a system regulated by demographic source-sink dynamics. Vaccinium elliottii (Ericaceae) occurs in dry upland and flood-prone bottomland forests throughout the southeastern United States, but has larger populations and higher average individual fitness in upland sites. We conducted a multi-year field experiment to evaluate whether plasticity in foliar morphology increases survival and lifespan. Both across and within habitats, selection favored plasticity in specific leaf area, stomatal density, and leaf size. Stabilizing selection acted on plasticity in stomatal density within habitats, suggesting that extreme levels of plasticity are disadvantageous. Thus, even in systems driven by source-sink dynamics, temporal and spatial variation in conditions across the landscape and within habitat types can favor the evolution of plasticity.

Climate-driven divergence in plant-microbiome interactions generates range-wide variation in bud break phenology

Soil microbiomes are rapidly becoming known as an important driver of plant phenotypic variation and may mediate plant responses to environmental factors. However, integrating spatial scales relevant to climate change with plant intraspecific genetic variation and soil microbial ecology is difficult, making studies of broad inference rare. Here we hypothesize and show: 1) the degree to which tree genotypes condition their soil microbiomes varies by population across the geographic distribution of a widespread riparian tree, Populus angustifolia; 2) geographic dissimilarity in soil microbiomes among populations is influenced by both abiotic and biotic environmental variation; and 3) soil microbiomes that vary in response to abiotic and biotic factors can change plant foliar phenology. We show soil microbiomes respond to intraspecific variation at the tree genotype and population level, and geographic variation in soil characteristics and climate. Using a fully reciprocal plant population by soil location feedback experiment, we identified a climate-based soil microbiome effect that advanced and delayed bud break phenology by approximately 10 days. These results demonstrate a landscape-level feedback between tree populations and associated soil microbial communities and suggest soil microbes may play important roles in mediating and buffering bud break phenology with climate warming, with whole ecosystem implications.

Chronic selection for early reproductive phenology in an annual plant across a steep, elevational gradient of growing season length

Colonization along ubiquitous gradients of growing season length should require adaptation of phenological traits, driven by natural selection. Although phenology often varies with season length and genetic differentiation in phenological traits sometimes seems adaptive, few studies test whether natural selection is responsible for these patterns. The annual plant Rhinanthus minor is genetically differentiated for phenology across a 1000-m elevational gradient of growing season length in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. We estimated phenotypic selection on five phenological traits for three generations of naturally occurring individuals at 12 sites (n = 10,112), and two generations of genetically and phenotypically more variable transplanted populations at nine of these sites (n = 24,611). Selection was weak for most traits, but consistently favored early flowering across the gradient rather than only under short seasons. There was no evidence that apparent selection favoring early reproduction arose from failure to consider all components of fitness, or variation in other correlated phenological traits. Instead, selection for earlier flowering may be balanced by selection for strong cogradient phenological plasticity that indirectly favors later flowering. However, this probably does not explain the consistency of selection on flowering time across this steep, elevational gradient of growing season length.

Genetic architecture and adaptation of flowering time among environments

The genetic basis of flowering time changes across environments, and pleiotropy may limit adaptive evolution of populations in response to local conditions. However, little information is known about how genetic architecture changes among environments. We used genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in Boechera stricta (Graham) Al-Shehbaz, a relative of Arabidopsis, to examine flowering variation among environments and associations with climate conditions in home environments. Also, we used molecular population genetics to search for evidence of historical natural selection. GWAS found 47 significant quantitative trait loci (QTLs) that influence flowering time in one or more environments, control plastic changes in phenology between experiments, or show associations with climate in sites of origin. Genetic architecture of flowering varied substantially among environments. We found that some pairs of QTLs showed similar patterns of pleiotropy across environments. A large-effect QTL showed molecular signatures of adaptive evolution and is associated with climate in home environments. The derived allele at this locus causes later flowering and predominates in sites with greater water availability. This work shows that GWAS of climate associations and ecologically important traits across diverse environments can be combined with molecular signatures of natural selection to elucidate ecological genetics of adaptive evolution.

The ecological, genetic and genomic architecture of local adaptation and population differentiation in Boechera stricta

Differential local adaptation restricts gene flow between populations inhabiting distinct environments, resulting in isolation by adaptation. In addition to the statistical inferences of genotype-environment associations, an integrative approach is needed to investigate the effect of local adaptation on population divergence at the ecological, genetic and genomic scale. Here, we combine reciprocal transplant, genome-environment association and QTL mapping to investigate local adaptation in Boechera stricta (Drummond's rockcress). With reciprocal transplant experiment, we found local genetic groups exhibit phenotypic characteristics corresponding to the distinct selection forces from different water availability. At the genetic level, the local allele of a major fitness QTL confers higher and sturdier flowering stalks, maximizing the fecundity fitness component under sufficient water supply, and its genetic variation is associated with precipitation across the landscape. At the genomewide scale, we further showed that multiple loci associated with precipitation are highly differentiated between genetic groups, suggesting that local adaptation has a widespread effect on reducing gene flow. This study provides one of the few comprehensive examples demonstrating how local adaptation facilitates population divergence at the trait, gene and genome level.

Costs of reproduction under experimental climate change across elevations in the perennial forb Boechera stricta

Investment in current reproduction can reduce future fitness by depleting resources needed for maintenance, particularly under environmental stress. These trade-offs influence life-history evolution. We tested whether climate change alters the future-fitness costs of current reproduction in a large-scale field experiment of Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae). Over 6 years, we simulated climate change along an elevational gradient in the Rocky Mountains through snow removal, which accelerates snowmelt and reduces soil water availability. Costs of reproduction were greatest in arid, lower elevations, where high initial reproductive effort depressed future fitness. At mid-elevations, initial reproduction augmented subsequent fitness in benign conditions, but pronounced costs emerged under snow removal. At high elevation, snow removal dampened costs of reproduction by prolonging the growing season. In most scenarios, failed reproduction in response to resource limitation depressed lifetime fecundity. Indeed, fruit abortion only benefited high-fitness individuals under benign conditions. We propose that climate change could shift life-history trade-offs in an environment-dependent fashion, possibly favouring early reproduction and short lifespans in stressful conditions.

Trade-off drives Pareto optimality of within- and among-year emergence timing in response to increasing aridity

Adaptation to current and future climates can be constrained by trade-offs between fitness-related traits. Early seedling emergence often enhances plant fitness in seasonal environments, but if earlier emergence in response to seasonal cues is genetically correlated with lower potential to spread emergence among years (i.e., bet-hedging), then this functional trade-off could constrain adaptive evolution. Consequently, selection favoring both earlier within-year emergence and greater spread of emergence among years-as is expected in more arid environments-may constrain adaptive responses to trait value combinations at which a performance gain in either function (i.e., evolving earlier within- or greater among-year emergence) generates a performance loss in the other. All such trait value combinations that cannot be improved for both functions simultaneously are described as Pareto optimal and together constitute the Pareto front. To investigate how this potential emergence timing trade-off might constrain adaptation to increasing aridity, we sourced seeds of two grasses, Stipa pulchra and Bromus diandrus, from multiple maternal lines within populations across an aridity gradient in California and examined their performance in a greenhouse experiment. We monitored emergence and assayed ungerminated seeds for viability to determine seed persistence, a metric of potential among-year emergence spread. In both species, maternal lines with larger fractions of persistent seeds emerged later, indicating a trade-off between within-year emergence speed and potential among-year emergence spread. In both species, populations on the Pareto front for both earlier emergence and larger seed persistence fraction occupied significantly more arid sites than populations off the Pareto front, consistent with the hypothesis that more arid sites impose the strongest selection for earlier within-year emergence and greater among-year emergence spread. Our results provide an example of how evaluating genetically based correlations within populations and applying Pareto optimality among populations can be used to detect evolutionary constraints and adaptation across environmental gradients.

The Evolution of Annual and Perennial Plant Life Histories: Ecological Correlates and Genetic Mechanisms

Flowering plants exhibit two principal life-history strategies: annuality (living and reproducing in one year) and perenniality (living more than one year). The advantages of either strategy depend on the relative benefits of immediate reproduction balanced against survivorship and future reproduction. This trade-off means that life-history strategies are associated with particular environments, with annuals being found more often in unpredictable habitats. Annuality and perenniality are the outcome of developmental genetic programs responding to their environment, with perennials being distinguished by their delayed competence to flower and reversion to growth after flowering. Evolutionary transitions between these strategies are frequent and have consequences for mating systems and genome evolution, with perennials being more likely to outcross with higher inbreeding depression and lower rates of molecular evolution. Integrating expectations from life-history theory with knowledge of the developmental genetics of flowering and seasonality is required to understand the mechanisms involved in the evolution of annual and perennial life histories.

Metabolic rate, context-dependent selection, and the competition-colonization trade-off

Metabolism is linked with the pace‐of‐life, co‐varying with survival, growth, and reproduction. Metabolic rates should therefore be under strong selection and, if heritable, become less variable over time. Yet intraspecific variation in metabolic rates is ubiquitous, even after accounting for body mass and temperature. Theory predicts variable selection maintains trait variation, but field estimates of how selection on metabolism varies are rare. We use a model marine invertebrate to estimate selection on metabolic rates in the wild under different competitive environments. Fitness landscapes varied among environments separated by a few centimeters: interspecific competition selected for higher metabolism, and a faster pace‐of‐life, relative to competition‐free environments. Populations experience a mosaic of competitive regimes; we find metabolism mediates a competition‐colonization trade‐off across these regimes. Although high metabolic phenotypes possess greater competitive ability, in the absence of competitors, low metabolic phenotypes are better colonizers. Spatial heterogeneity and the variable selection on metabolic rates that it generates is likely to maintain variation in metabolic rate, despite strong selection in any single environment.

Pollinator divergence and pollination isolation between hybrids with different floral color and morphology in two sympatric Penstemon species

Differential visitation of pollinators due to divergent floral traits can lead to reproductive isolation via assortative pollen flow, which may ultimately be a driving force in plant speciation, particularly in areas of overlap. We evaluate the effects of pollinator behavioral responses to variation of intraspecific floral color and nectar rewards, on reproductive isolation between two hybrid flower color morphs (fuchsia and blue) and their parental species Penstemon roseus and P. gentianoides with a mixed-pollination system. We show that pollinators (bumblebees and hummingbirds) exhibit different behavioral responses to fuchsia and blue morphs, which could result from differential attraction or deterrence. In addition to differences in color (spectral reflectance), we found that plants with fuchsia flowers produced more and larger flowers, produced more nectar and were more visited by pollinators than those with blue flowers. These differences influenced the foraging behavior and effectiveness as pollinators of both bumblebees and hummingbirds, which contributed to reproductive isolation between the two hybrid flower color morphs and parental species. This study demonstrates how differentiation of pollination traits promotes the formation of hybrid zones leading to pollinator shifts and reproductive isolation. While phenotypic traits of fuchsia and red flowers might encourage more efficient hummingbird pollination in a mixed-pollination system, the costs of bumblebee pollination on plant reproduction could be the drivers for the repeated shifts from bumblebee- to hummingbird-mediated pollination.

Reproductive phenology across the lunar cycle: parental decisions, offspring responses, and consequences for reef fish

Most organisms reproduce in a dynamic environment, and life-history theory predicts that this can favor the evolution of strategies that capitalize on good times and avoid bad times. When offspring experience these environmental changes, fitness can depend strongly upon environmental conditions at birth and at later life stages. Consequently, fitness will be influenced by the reproductive decisions of parents (i.e., birth date effects) and developmental decisions (e.g., adaptive plasticity) of their offspring. We explored the consequences of these decisions using a highly iteroparous coral reef fish (the sixbar wrasse, Thalassoma hardwicke) and in a system where both parental and offspring environments vary with the lunar cycle. We tested the hypotheses that (1) reproductive patterns and offspring survival vary across the lunar cycle and (2) offspring exhibit adaptive plasticity in development time. We evaluated temporal variation in egg production from February to June 2017, and corresponding larval developmental histories (inferred from otolith microstructure) of successful settlers and surviving juveniles that were spawned during that same period. We documented lunar-cyclic variation in egg production (most eggs were spawned at the new moon). This pattern was at odds with the distribution of birth dates of settlers and surviving juveniles-most individuals that successfully survived to settlement and older stages were born during the full moon. Consequently, the probability of survival across the larval stage was greatest for offspring born close to the full moon, when egg production was at its lowest. Offspring also exhibited plasticity in developmental duration, adjusting their age at settlement to settle during darker portions of the lunar cycle than expected given their birth date. Offspring born near the new moon tended to be older and larger at settlement, and these traits conveyed a strong fitness advantage (i.e., a carryover effect) through to adulthood. We speculate that these effects (1) are shaped by a dynamic landscape of risk and reward determined by moonlight, which differentially influences adults and offspring, and (2) can explain the evolution of extreme iteroparity in sixbars.

Small spaces, big impacts: contributions of micro-environmental variation to population persistence under climate change

Individuals within natural populations can experience very different abiotic and biotic conditions across small spatial scales owing to microtopography and other micro-environmental gradients. Ecological and evolutionary studies often ignore the effects of micro-environment on plant population and community dynamics. Here, we explore the extent to which fine-grained variation in abiotic and biotic conditions contributes to within-population variation in trait expression and genetic diversity in natural plant populations. Furthermore, we consider whether benign microhabitats could buffer local populations of some plant species from abiotic stresses imposed by rapid anthropogenic climate change. If microrefugia sustain local populations and communities in the short term, other eco-evolutionary processes, such as gene flow and adaptation, could enhance population stability in the longer term. We caution, however, that local populations may still decline in size as they contract into rare microhabitats and microrefugia. We encourage future research that explicitly examines the role of the micro-environment in maintaining genetic variation within local populations, favouring the evolution of phenotypic plasticity at local scales and enhancing population persistence under global change.

Where is the optimum? Predicting the variation of selection along climatic gradients and the adaptive value of plasticity. A case study on tree phenology

Many theoretical models predict when genetic evolution and phenotypic plasticity allow adaptation to changing environmental conditions. These models generally assume stabilizing selection around some optimal phenotype. We however often ignore how optimal phenotypes change with the environment, which limit our understanding of the adaptive value of phenotypic plasticity. Here, we propose an approach based on our knowledge of the causal relationships between climate, adaptive traits, and fitness to further these questions. This approach relies on a sensitivity analysis of the process‐based model phenofit, which mathematically formalizes these causal relationships, to predict fitness landscapes and optimal budburst dates along elevation gradients in three major European tree species. Variation in the overall shape of the fitness landscape and resulting directional selection gradients were found to be mainly driven by temperature variation. The optimal budburst date was delayed with elevation, while the range of dates allowing high fitness narrowed and the maximal fitness at the optimum decreased. We also found that the plasticity of the budburst date should allow tracking the spatial variation in the optimal date, but with variable mismatch depending on the species, ranging from negligible mismatch in fir, moderate in beech, to large in oak. Phenotypic plasticity would therefore be more adaptive in fir and beech than in oak. In all species, we predicted stronger directional selection for earlier budburst date at higher elevation. The weak selection on budburst date in fir should result in the evolution of negligible genetic divergence, while beech and oak would evolve counter‐gradient variation, where genetic and environmental effects are in opposite directions. Our study suggests that theoretical models should consider how whole fitness landscapes change with the environment. The approach introduced here has the potential to be developed for other traits and species to explore how populations will adapt to climate change.

Resource availability alters fitness trade-offs: implications for evolution in stressful environments

PREMISE

Industrialization and human activities have elevated temperatures and caused novel precipitation patterns, altering soil moisture and nutrient availability. Predicting evolutionary responses to climate change requires information on the agents of selection that drive local adaptation and influence resource acquisition and allocation. Here, we examined the contribution of nutrient and drought stress to local adaptation, and we tested whether trade-offs across fitness components constrain or facilitate adaptation under resource stress.

METHODS

We exposed 35 families of Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae) to three levels of water and two levels of nutrient supply in a factorial design in the greenhouse. We sourced maternal families from a broad elevational gradient (2499-3530 m a.s.l.), representing disparate soil moisture and nutrient availability.

RESULTS

Concordant with local adaptation, maternal families from arid, low-elevation populations had enhanced fecundity under severe drought over those from more mesic, high-elevation sites. Furthermore, fitness trade-offs between growth and reproductive success depended on the environmental context. Under high, but not low, nutrient levels, we found a negative phenotypic relationship between the probability of reproduction and growth rate. Similarly, a negative phenotypic association only emerged between fecundity and growth under severe drought stress, not the benign water treatment levels, indicating that stressful resource environments alter the direction of trait correlations. Genetic covariances were broadly concordant with these phenotypic patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite high heritabilities in all fitness components across treatments, trade-offs between growth and reproduction could constrain adaptation to increasing drought stress and novel nutrient levels.

Interannual variation in season length is linked to strong co-gradient plasticity of phenology in a montane annual plant

Species are commonly distributed along latitudinal and elevational gradients of growing season length to which they might respond via phenotypic plasticity and/or adaptive genetic differentiation. However, the relative contribution of these processes and whether plasticity, if it occurs, facilitates expansion along season-length gradients remain unclear, but are important for predicting species fates during anthropogenic change. We quantified phenological trait variation in the montane annual Rhinanthus minor for three generations at 12 sites across 900 m of elevation in the Canadian Rocky Mountains and conducted a reciprocal transplant experiment for two generations among nine sites. We compared clines and interannual variation of phenological traits between natural and transplanted individuals. Season length declined by c. 37% along our elevational gradient and, as expected, plants emerged, reached first flower and made their first seed in c. 41% fewer growing degree days under shorter growing seasons. Although reciprocal transplants revealed modest genetic differentiation across elevation, trait clines primarily were due to striking co-gradient plasticity that paralleled genetic differentiation. Co-gradient plasticity likely evolved in response to considerable interannual variation in season length across our elevational transect, and should prepare R. minor to make adaptive changes to phenology in response to ongoing climate change predicted for montane environments.

Climate change shifts natural selection and the adaptive potential of the perennial forb Boechera stricta in the Rocky Mountains

Heritable genetic variation is necessary for populations to evolve in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, antagonistic genetic correlations among traits may constrain the rate of adaptation, even if substantial genetic variation exists. We examine potential genetic responses to selection by comparing multivariate genetic variance-covariances of traits and fitness (multivariate Robertson-Price identities) across different environments in a reciprocal transplant experiment of the forb Boechera stricta in the Rocky Mountains. By transplanting populations into four common gardens arrayed along an elevational gradient, and exposing populations to control and snow removal treatments, we simulated future and current climates and snowmelt regimes. Genetic variation in flowering and germination phenology declined in plants moved downslope to warmer, drier sites, suggesting that these traits may have a limited ability to evolve under future climates. Simulated climate change via snow removal altered the strength of selection on flowering traits, but we found little evidence that genetic correlations among traits are likely to affect the rate of adaptation to climate change. Overall, our results suggest that climate change may alter the evolutionary potential of B. stricta, but reduced expression of genetic variation may be a larger impediment to adaptation than constraints imposed by antagonistic genetic correlations.

ΔTraitSDMs: species distribution models that account for local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity

Improving our understanding of species ranges under rapid climate change requires application of our knowledge of the tolerance and adaptive capacity of populations to changing environmental conditions. Here, we describe an emerging modelling approach, ΔTraitSDM, which attempts to achieve this by explaining species distribution ranges based on phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation of fitness-related traits measured across large geographical gradients. The collection of intraspecific trait data measured in common gardens spanning broad environmental clines has promoted the development of these new models - first in trees but now rapidly expanding to other organisms. We review, explain and harmonize the main findings from this new generation of models that, by including trait variation over geographical scales, are able to provide new insights into future species ranges. Overall, ΔTraitSDM predictions generally deliver a less alarming message than previous models of species distribution under new climates, indicating that phenotypic plasticity should help, to a considerable degree, some plant populations to persist under climate change. The development of ΔTraitSDMs offers a new perspective to analyse intraspecific variation in single and multiple traits, with the rationale that trait (co)variation and consequently fitness can significantly change across geographical gradients and new climates.

Variable effects on growth and defense traits for plant ecotypic differentiation and phenotypic plasticity along elevation gradients

Along ecological gradients, phenotypic differentiation can arise through natural selection on trait diversity and magnitude, and environment-driven plastic changes. The magnitude of ecotypic differentiation versus phenotypic plasticity can vary depending on the traits under study. Using reciprocal transplant-common gardens along steep elevation gradients, we evaluated patterns of ecotypic differentiation and phenotypic plasticity of several growth and defense-related traits for two coexisting but unrelated plant species, Cardamine pratensis and Plantago major. For both species, we observed ecotypic differentiation accompanied by plasticity in growth-related traits. Plants grew faster and produced more biomass when placed at low elevation. In contrast, we observed fixed ecotypic differentiation for defense and resistance traits. Generally, low-elevation ecotypes produced higher chemical defenses regardless of the growing elevation. Yet, some plasticity was observed for specific compounds, such as indole glucosinolates. The results of this study may suggest that ecotypic differentiation in defense traits is maintained by costs of chemical defense production, while plasticity in growth traits is regulated by temperature-driven growth response maximization.

Climate-driven reduction of genetic variation in plant phenology alters soil communities and nutrient pools

We examined the hypothesis that climate-driven evolution of plant traits will influence associated soil microbiomes and ecosystem function across the landscape. Using a foundation tree species, Populus angustifolia, observational and common garden approaches, and a base population genetic collection that spans 17 river systems in the western United States, from AZ to MT, we show that (a) as mean annual temperature (MAT) increases, genetic and phenotypic variation for bud break phenology decline; (b) soil microbiomes, soil nitrogen (N), and soil carbon (C) vary in response to MAT and conditioning by trees; and (c) with losses of genetic variation due to warming, population-level regulation of community and ecosystem functions strengthen. These results demonstrate a relationship between the potential evolutionary response of populations and subsequent shifts in ecosystem function along a large temperature gradient.

Assortative mating by flowering time and its effect on correlated traits in variable environments

Reproductive timing is a key life-history trait that impacts the pool of available mates, the environment experienced during flowering, and the expression of other traits through genetic covariation. Selection on phenology, and its consequences on other life-history traits, has considerable implications in the context of ongoing climate change and shifting growing seasons. To test this, we grew field-collected seed from the wildflower Mimulus guttatus in a greenhouse to assess the standing genetic variation for flowering time and covariation with other traits. We then created full-sib families through phenological assortative mating and grew offspring in three photoperiod treatments representing seasonal variation in daylength. We find substantial quantitative genetic variation for the onset of flowering time, which covaried with vegetative traits. The assortatively-mated offspring varied in their critical photoperiod by over two hours, so that families differed in their probability of flowering across treatments Allocation to flowering and vegetative growth changed across the daylength treatments, with consistent direction and magnitude of covariation among flowering time and other traits. Our results suggest that future studies of flowering time evolution should consider the joint evolution of correlated traits and shifting seasonal selection to understand how environmental variation influences life histories.

Clines in traits compared over two decades in a plant hybrid zone

Background and Aims

Clines in traits across hybrid zones reflect a balance between natural selection and gene flow. Changes over time in average values for traits, and especially the shapes of their clines, are rarely investigated in plants, but could result from evolution in an unstable hybrid zone. Differences in clines between floral and vegetative traits could indicate different strengths of divergent selection.

Methods

Five floral and two vegetative traits were measured in 12 populations along an elevational gradient spanning a natural hybrid zone between Ipomopsis aggregata and Ipomopsis tenuituba. We compared clines in the floral traits with those measured 25 years ago. Observed changes in mean trait values were compared with predictions based on prior estimates of natural selection. We also compared the steepness and position of clines between the floral and vegetative traits.

Key Results

Corolla length has increased over five generations to an extent that matches predictions from measurements of phenotypic selection and heritability. The shape of its cline, and that of other traits, has not changed detectably. Clines varied across traits, but not all floral traits showed steeper clines than did vegetative traits. Both suites of morphological traits had steeper clines than did neutral molecular markers.

Conclusions

The increase in corolla length provides a rare example of a match between predicted and observed evolution of a plant trait in natural populations. The clinal properties are consistent with the hypothesis that habitat-mediated divergent selection on vegetative traits and pollinator-mediated selection on floral traits both maintain species differences across the hybrid zone.