The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic

Inference of epidemic dynamics in the COVID-19 era and beyond

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the key role that epidemiology and modelling play in analysing infectious threats and supporting decision making in real-time. Motivated by the unprecedented volume and breadth of data generated during the pandemic, we review modern opportunities for analysis to address questions that emerge during a major modern epidemic. Following the broad chronology of insights required - from understanding initial dynamics to retrospective evaluation of interventions, we describe the theoretical foundations of each approach and the underlying intuition. Through a series of case studies, we illustrate real life applications, and discuss implications for future work.

COVID research across the social sciences in 2020: a bibliometric approach

Research on the COVID-19 pandemic has produced an incredible volume of social science research. To explore the initial areas of COVID-19 scholarship, the following study uses bibliometric co-citation network analysis on data from Clarivate's Web of Science database to analyze 3327 peer-reviewed studies published during the first year of the pandemic and their 107,396 shared references. Findings indicate nine distinct disciplinary research clusters centered around a single medical core of COVID-19 pandemic research. Topics ranging from tourism collapse, fear scales, financial contagion, health surveillance, shifts in crime rates, quarantine psychology, and collective trauma among others are found to have emerged in this initial phase of research as covid spread across the world. A corresponding infodemic highlights early communication challenges and a broader need to thwart misinformation. As this body of work continues to grow across the social sciences, key intersections, shared themes, and long-term implications of this historic event are brought into view.

Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic

In response to the recent outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus governments have aimed to reduce the virus's spread through, inter alia, non-pharmaceutical intervention. We address the question when such measures should be implemented and, once implemented, when to remove them. These issues are viewed through a real-options lens and we develop an SIRD-like continuous-time Markov chain model to analyze a sequence of options: the option to intervene and introduce measures and, after intervention has started, the option to remove these. Measures can be imposed multiple times. We implement our model using estimates from empirical studies and, under fairly general assumptions, our main conclusions are that: (1) measures should be put in place not long after the first infections occur; (2) if the epidemic is discovered when there are many infected individuals already, then it is optimal never to introduce measures; (3) once the decision to introduce measures has been taken, these should stay in place until the number of susceptible or infected members of the population is close to zero; (4) it is never optimal to introduce a tier system to phase-in measures but it is optimal to use a tier system to phase-out measures; (5) a more infectious variant may reduce the duration of measures being in place; (6) the risk of infections being brought in by travelers should be curbed even when no other measures are in place. These results are robust to several variations of our base-case model.

Partially different? The importance of general equilibrium in health economic evaluations: An application to nocturia

Both the human capital approach and the friction cost approach are frequently used to quantify the productivity costs associated with illness, disability or death in health economic evaluations. In this paper we argue that these approaches have one major, but common shortcoming: they only capture partial equilibrium (PE) effects and therefore underestimate the true potential productivity costs associated with health conditions. They neglect the sizable, indirect, ripple effects in the economy captured by general equilibrium (GE) models. To demonstrate our point, we compare a traditional PE with a GE approach for the application to nocturia, a condition characterized by the need to frequently wake up at night to urinate. Nocturia is associated with substantial impairment of daytime functioning and work productivity. We employ large-scale United Kingdom (UK) employer-employee survey data to estimate the prevalence and productivity loss. These estimates are then used as shared inputs to drive both approaches. We find that the traditional PE approach underestimates the annual productivity cost of clinically relevant nocturia by around 16%. We propose a generalized GE/PE multiplier to approximate the GE effect for other health conditions. Our findings stress the importance of accounting for sizable GE effects when conducting health economic evaluations.

Changes in shopping habits during COVID-19

By the start of 2020, the daily and business world had to undergo a radical change with the widespread pandemic known as COVID-19. Many people had to replace their everyday purchase medium to meet the enforced restrictions, and local businesses had to adjust their operations to accommodate the negative impacts brought upon by the disease's rapid spread. Groceries and FMCG sub-sectors of the retail industry were forced to adapt to consumers' stockpiling and panic-buying behaviors. We studied the impact of similar purchase attitudes for various product groups during the COVID-19 and probed the differences between sales of online and physical markets. Initially, a cluster analysis identifies which product groups were affected by similar shopping behaviors during the pandemic. Subsequently, the impact of the number of COVID cases on sales levels was measured using stepwise, lasso, and the best subset models. All the models were applied to both physical and online market datasets. The results showed a significant shift from the physical to the online markets during the pandemic. These findings can provide an essential guideline to retail managers in adapting to the new world.

Economic impact of acute respiratory disease pandemics: A scoping review

Background

The economic impact of acute respiratory disease pandemics has yet to be specifically systematically reviewed. The aim of this scoping review is to identify and classify the economic impacts and its values and ranges.

Materials and Methods

We conducted a literature search across three key databases using an extensive list of keywords. Then, we included studies which explored direct and indirect costs as well as broader economic impact associated with different nine acute respiratory diseases, i.e., pandemic and seasonal influenza, avian influenza, equine influenza, swine influenza, severe acute respiratory syndrome, coronavirus disease 2019, Middle East respiratory syndrome, H1N1, and H7N9.

Results

We included 62 studies in English language between 1987 and 2020, mostly from the countries of East Asia and Pacific pertinent. We classified the economic impact into 5 main categories and 18 subcategories. The main categories were macroeconomic impacts, impacts on health cost, industry, businesses and trade, and education.

Conclusion

Respiratory disease pandemics have widely impacted different sectors of economy such as the direct cost on macroeconomic, providing and receiving health services, disease management, industries, business and trade, education, and indirect costs due to productivity losses. However, lots of the reviewed studies were unable to quantify the actual economic cost of these impacts. This made it challenging to conduct any kind of quantitative comparison of the results. A key priority for future research is to develop standard methods to quantify the broader economic costs of respiratory disease pandemics. Understanding the total economic impact of respiratory disease pandemics is a key step to inform national and international priority setting for disease prevention and pandemic control interventions.

The COVID-19 pandemic and firm value: the mediating effect of FinTech applications

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on firm value and the mediating effect of financial technology (FinTech) applications. Examining the U.S.-listed domestic and foreign firms, we find the negative association between the severity of the virus pandemic and firm value. However, we also show the evidence that FinTech applications alleviate the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on firm value. These findings provide important implications for global regulators, investors, and managers.

COVID-19 health policy evaluation: integrating health and economic perspectives with a data envelopment analysis approach

The COVID-19 pandemic is a global challenge to humankind. To improve the knowledge regarding relevant, efficient and effective COVID-19 measures in health policy, this paper applies a multi-criteria evaluation approach with population, health care, and economic datasets from 19 countries within the OECD. The comparative investigation was based on a Data Envelopment Analysis approach as an efficiency measurement method. Results indicate that on the one hand, factors like population size, population density, and country development stage, did not play a major role in successful pandemic management. On the other hand, pre-pandemic healthcare system policies were decisive. Healthcare systems with a primary care orientation and a high proportion of primary care doctors compared to specialists were found to be more efficient than systems with a medium level of resources that were partly financed through public funding and characterized by a high level of access regulation. Roughly two weeks after the introduction of ad hoc measures, e.g., lockdowns and quarantine policies, we did not observe a direct impact on country-level healthcare efficiency, while delayed lockdowns led to significantly lower efficiency levels during the first COVID-19 wave in 2020. From an economic perspective, strategies without general lockdowns were identified as a more efficient strategy than the full lockdown strategy. Additionally, governmental support of short-term work is promising. Improving the efficiency of COVID-19 countermeasures is crucial in saving as many lives as possible with limited resources.

Integrating economic and health evidence to inform Covid-19 policy in low- and middle- income countries

Covid-19 requires policy makers to consider evidence on both population health and economic welfare. Over the last two decades, the field of health economics has developed a range of analytical approaches and contributed to the institutionalisation of processes to employ economic evidence in health policy. We present a discussion outlining how these approaches and processes need to be applied more widely to inform Covid-19 policy; highlighting where they may need to be adapted conceptually and methodologically, and providing examples of work to date. We focus on the evidential and policy needs of low- and middle-income countries; where there is an urgent need for evidence to navigate the policy trade-offs between health and economic well-being posed by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Challenges of integrating economics into epidemiological analysis of and policy responses to emerging infectious diseases

COVID-19 has shown that the consequences of a pandemic are wider-reaching than cases and deaths. Morbidity and mortality are important direct costs, but infectious diseases generate other direct and indirect benefits and costs as the economy responds to these shocks: some people lose, others gain and people modify their behaviours in ways that redistribute these benefits and costs. These additional effects feedback on health outcomes to create a complicated interdependent system of health and non-health outcomes. As a result, interventions primarily intended to reduce the burden of disease can have wider societal and economic effects and more complicated and unintended, but possibly not anticipable, system-level influences on the epidemiological dynamics themselves. Capturing these effects requires a systems approach that encompasses more direct health outcomes. Towards this end, in this article we discuss the importance of integrating epidemiology and economic models, setting out the key challenges which such a merging of epidemiology and economics presents. We conclude that understanding people's behaviour in the context of interventions is key to developing a more complete and integrated economic-epidemiological approach; and a wider perspective on the benefits and costs of interventions (and who these fall upon) will help society better understand how to respond to future pandemics.

A study to identify the impact of Covid-19 on the trust and risk perceptions of online buying behaviour

Coronavirus has become a global emergency and has left a strong impact on people all over the world. It has altered the way we live, the way we work, and the way we see the world around us. Ever since the virus escalated and with lockdown in place, a significant change has been reported in consumer’s online buying behavior. This research aims to provide implications from a consumer’s perspective, thereby helping brands to gain insight into this vulnerable and unreal environment. This change in consumer mindset is investigated with respect to the risk and trust perceptions of online buying behavior. During a lockdown, an increased purchase with regards to non-perishable items was observed. The lockdown has brought about positive changes in consumers in terms of food wastage. To test the proposed hypothesis, data was collected from 200 respondents through an online survey. The results provided strong evidence that was independent of the pandemic. However, COVID-19 has acted as an element that made consumers opt for the online channel.

Economic impacts of COVID-19 on the tourism sector in Tanzania

The worldwide COVID-19 pandemic has affected the tourism sector by closing borders, reducing both the transportation of tourists and tourist demand. Developing countries, such as Tanzania, where the tourism sector contributes a high share to gross domestic product, are facing considerable economic consequences. Tourism interlinks domestic sectors such as transport, accommodation, beverages and food, and retail trade and thus plays an important role in household income. Our study assesses the macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19 on the tourism sector and the Tanzanian economy as a case study of an impacted developing economy. We use a computable general equilibrium model framework to simulate the economic impacts resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and quantitatively analysed the economic impacts.

Simulating the trade effects of the COVID-19 pandemic: Scenario analysis based on quantitative trade modelling

The WTO Global Trade Model, a quantitative trade model, is employed to project the impact on the global economy of the COVID-19 pandemic. Because of the profound uncertainty about the duration of the pandemic and the containment measures, three scenarios are constructed, V-shaped, U-shaped and L-shaped recovery, corresponding with a duration of the pandemic of 3 months, 6 months and more than a year. The pandemic and containment measures are assumed to lead to a general reduction of labour supply, a rise in trade costs, and reductions in both demand and supply in sectors most affected by the containment measures. GDP and trade are projected to fall by, respectively, 5% and 11% in the V-shaped and L-shaped scenarios and trade by, respectively, 8% and 20%. The response of trade to the reduction in GDP, measured by the trade-to-GDP elasticity, is projected to rise as the crisis lasts longer. The reason is that a longer duration will lead to a larger drop in spending on durables which are highly tradable.

A Literature Review of Pandemics and Development: the Long-Term Perspective

Pandemics have been a long-standing object of study by economists, albeit with declining interest, that is until COVID-19 arrived. We review current knowledge on the pandemics' effects on long-term economic development, spanning economic and historical debates. We show that all economic inputs are potentially affected. Pandemics reduce the workforce and human capital, have mixed effects on investment and savings, but potentially positive consequences for innovation and knowledge development, depending on accompanying institutional change. In the absence of an innovative response supporting income redistribution, pandemics tend to increase income inequalities, worsening poverty traps and highlighting the distributional issues built into insurance-based health insurance systems. We find that the effects of pandemics are asymmetric over time, in space, and among sectors and households. Therefore, we suggest that the research focus on the theoretical plausibility and empirical significance of specific mechanisms should be complemented by meta-analytic efforts aimed at reconstructing the resulting complexity. Finally, we suggest that policymakers prioritize the development of organizational learning and innovative capabilities, focusing on the ability to adapt to emergencies rather than developing rigid protocols or mimicking solutions developed and implemented in different contexts.

Estimating US Earnings Loss Associated with COVID-19 Based on Human Capital Calculation

Infection with COVID-19 could result in lockdown, quarantine of contacts, absenteeism from work, and temporary productivity loss. This research aims to calculate (1) how the pandemic affects on-the-job probability and earnings for the working population, and (2) how much productivity loss is associated with self or a family member sick with COVID-19. Based on data collected from the U.S Research and Development Survey (RANDS), this research projects the relationship between on-the-job possibility and age of the index group and calculates the employment possibilities of the index group relative to the healthy group, namely the employment ratio. The weekly loss of productivity, presented by earnings, associated with COVID-19 for groups aged 18-44 years and 45-64 years was calculated, since the 18- to 64-year-old population is an economy's active workforce. Analytical results indicate that the older the age group, the lower the on-the-job possibility, and the higher the weekly productivity loss due to self or a family member being sick from COVID-19. For the group aged 45-64 years, the employment ratio of the index group relative to the healthy group dropped from 0.863 to 0.39, corresponding to a weekly productivity loss of 136-590 US dollars. The overall impact would be about a 9% loss in GDP. Infected or quarantined people would be confined to working in relatively isolated offices or places to allow for social distancing. Proactive health promotion in the workplace plus reactive work through telecommunication systems would reduce such losses. Such preparedness needs to be implemented early for more vulnerable workers who are of middle or old age and/or those comorbid with diabetes.

The impact of COVID-19 on tertiary educational institutions and students in Bangladesh

The COVID-19 forced to transform face-to-face mode of teaching to virtual in educational institutions around the globe that not only impact institutional stakeholders, but also posed as a threat to entire humanity because, all parties related to education had to change their activities. The intentions of this study therefore firstly, to determine the content analysis by interviewing tertiary students and secondly, to determine the frequency distribution by questionnaire developed from results of the content analysis. To better understand the consequences of this outbreak, we took an interview from forty respondents, including undergraduate and postgraduate students across Bangladesh. Results of Content analysis revealed that stakeholders of tertiary education are encountering severe problems in mental health, financial, technical, and study. A questionnaire was designed based on results were obtained through content analysis and distributed using email, WhatsApp, LinkedIn, Telegram, Facebook, and Instagram from May 20 to May 30, 2021. A total number of 505 valid questionnaires were received from respondents. Frequency distribution analysis disclosed that 60% respondents have no separate reading rooms. Laptops and desktops are commonly used for online classes, but unfortunately, 21% respondents have no personal electronic gadgets. Moreover, 55% reported spending less time to study during the coronavirus outbreak. Furthermore, 88% respondents reported experiencing mental health-related stress, anxiety, and depression problems. The proportion that suffered financial crisis, family disruptions, internet and technology related problems were 79%, 83% and 72% respectively. Since coronavirus pandemic is a totally new phenomenon in the world, not much empirical literature exist. So we fill the gap, investigating the issue empirically using content and frequency distribution analysis. Policy implications and recommendations are discussed accordingly.

A comparison of coupled microeconomic and mental health devastating alterations between low-income and affluent countries afflicted with COVID-19

BACKGROUND

The exponential increase in the rate of individuals' affliction by SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) has put extreme strains on health care systems worldwide and has sparked fears of an impending economic recession and mental turmoil.

OBJECTIVE

The review discusses the impact of COVID-19 on medical crises in two sections, focusing on the evidence presented from both neuropathological and epidemiological perspectives. First, this paper outlines how countries have implemented containment and appraises its effect on the microeconomy. Second, it highlights how government support for the economic crisis caused by COVID-19 depends on the size of a country's economy. Third, it attempts to explain how COVID-19 has affected business by explicitly evaluating each industry divided into primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors. Finally, we assert an extended discussion on the challenges and post-pandemic outlook.

METHODS

Peer-reviewed studies from inception until 2021 were searched in the Google scholar, PubMed, and Scopus databases.

RESULTS

Through the imposition of restrictions and lockdown measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic spread, besides arising a broad array of mental health concerns, a drastic drop in liquidity and significant spillover effect across almost all the global economic system has ensued.

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 implication on socioeconomic issues and mental wellbeing, as the most devastating sequelae of the current pandemic, is of great importance to curb the infection and deprive post-pandemic sequelae, demanding prompt actions.

Measuring the effectiveness and impact of COVID-19 health policies on firms and UNSDGs: evidence from China

Purpose

This paper documents and links firm- and country-level outcomes to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDGs) by portraying how the Chinese economy has fared during the COVID-19 crisis. It does so by shedding light on the factors that determine the effectiveness of health policies implemented in China.

Design/methodology/approach

Unlike the prior literature, in which lagging performance measures are used, the authors use leading indicators with event study methodology to develop effectiveness scores and identify the determinants of effectiveness, including financial variables, firm infection, geographical location of the spread, travel bans, lockdown periods, policies of home quarantine, health innovations and other innovative measures undertaken by the Chinese authorities.

Findings

The detailed disaggregated results show many dimensions where abnormal returns are indeed associated with various health policies and that the effectiveness, influenced by firm size, profitability, firm infection and location. The results remain robust when the authors control for various event windows and models and provide evidence of a strong UNSDG link, which the authors draw up a list.

Research limitations/implications

Apart from the quantitative analysis approach, future studies can complement and add further insights by utilizing qualitative research approaches.

Practical implications

The results offers robust evidence for policy-makers and firm managers on how a crisis of such proportions and subsequent health policies is affecting different firms and why.

Social implications

The study shows how COVID-19 health policies open a new dimension in terms of energy demand reduction and lower emissions, factors linking to the UNSDGs.

Originality/value

The study is the first to show detailed disaggregated results across many dimensions where abnormal returns are indeed associated with various health policies and that the effectiveness, influenced by firm size, profitability, firm infection and location.

Optimal shutdown strategies for COVID-19 with economic and mortality costs: British Columbia as a case study

Decision makers with the responsibility of managing policy for the COVID-19 epidemic have faced difficult choices in balancing the competing claims of saving lives and the high economic cost of shutdowns. In this paper, we formulate a model with both epidemiological and economic content to assist this decision-making process. We consider two ways to handle the balance between economic costs and deaths. First, we use the statistical value of life, which in Canada is about C$7 million, to optimize over a single variable, which is the sum of the economic cost and the value of lives lost. Our second method is to calculate the Pareto optimal front when we look at the two variables-deaths and economic costs. In both cases we find that, for most parameter values, the optimal policy is to adopt an initial shutdown level which reduces the reproduction number of the epidemic to close to 1. This level is then reduced once a vaccination programme is underway. Our model also indicates that an oscillating policy of strict and mild shutdowns is less effective than a policy which maintains a moderate shutdown level.

How COVID-19 Pandemic Worsens the Economic Situation of Women in South Africa

Little is known about the general equilibrium impact COVID-19 induces on different gender groups. This paper addresses the problem of relatively few general equilibrium studies focusing on gender impacts of COVID-19. The analysis uses a gendered Computable General Equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model that analyses a mild and severe scenario of the pandemic on economic and distributional outcomes for females. Irrespective of scenario, findings show that because women employment tend to have unskilled labour which is more concentrated in sectors that are hurt the most by COVID-19 response measures, they suffer disproportionately more from higher unemployment than their male counterparts. The poverty outcomes show worsened vulnerability for female-headed households given that, even prior to the pandemic, poverty was already higher amongst women. These simulated results are consistent with recently observed impacts and address research gaps important for well-designed public policies to reverse these trends.

Use of Food Services by Consumers in the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic. How the Eating Habits of Consumers Changed in View of the New Disease Risk Factors?

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in 2020–2021 changed the eating habits of people around the world. The aim of this study is to understand the effects of COVID-19 on changing consumers’ eating habits, including their concerns about food service nutrition in case of new disease risk factors. The survey conducted using the computer-assisted web-based interviewing method on a group of 1021 adult respondents in Poland. We collected information about consumer choices and habits related to use of food services during the pandemic. This research found that COVID-19 had an impact on consumers’ use of food services, both on-site and take-away. Using cluster analysis, we identified five main groups of food service consumers. It was found that almost half of the respondent group did not change their diet during the pandemic, 20% of respondents changed their diet to a positive one, and 20% to a diet that was negative. For respondents the most important forms of protection against COVID-19 in catering establishments were hand disinfection (70.3%), table disinfection (70.4%), wearing of masks and visors by staff (68.2%), and the possibility of cashless payments (64.6%). Based on cluster analysis (eight consumer clusters), we stated that majority of respondents did not see any threats to using catering service during the pandemic. Only a small group (8.1%) of respondents were afraid of the possibility of getting sick with COVID-19. This study presented the effects of COVID-19 on consumer eating behavior in catering and their concerns with food services uses. Discovering consumer concerns can reduce risk, increase food safety and improve eating habits.

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Commercial Property Rent Dynamics

This paper utilizes timely proprietary data to examine the contemporary impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on commercial property rent dynamics in the Asia–Pacific region. Given that the Asia–Pacific region was the first to be impacted by the public health crisis, it is important to examine how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the real estate markets in this region and to assess how the region has been recovering since then. Our regression analysis, controlling for different macroeconomic fundamentals and city and property type fixed effects, documents substantial declines in rents of approximately 15% during the first six months of 2020 across the Asia–Pacific commercial property market. We further observe that the most significant declines in rent occur in regions where exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic is the more severe, and in the retail property sector, where we have been observing continued declines of over 30%, with little recovery as of the second quarter of 2020. In additional analysis, we examine capital values and show that while capital targeting the retail property sector has been muted, there is some evidence showing capital flows into the residential and industrial sectors. We also show that fiscal stimuli imposed by governments have moderated the adverse impact of the pandemic. Overall, our study shows that while the effect of the COVID-19 public health crisis is detrimental to commercial real estate, its impact varies significantly across different regions and property sectors.

Fighting a war without weapons? Lessons from the COVID-19 outbreak

The recent pandemic of COVID-19 revealed that a highly transmissible virus threatens all humanity because extensive mobility, migration, and millions of passengers who travel worldwide shape our globalized environment and make containment of a virus more difficult. In a war between humans and viruses, we should have the necessary weapons, such as masks, gloves, ventilators, and so forth. However, during the COVID-19 outbreak, there was a shortage of this basic medical and personal protective equipment (MAPPE), even for the health workers. This note focuses on this issue and suggests that a global organization, which stores and renews basic MAPPE would be beneficial in the fight against the next pandemic and that such an organization can be established without significantly increasing the public expenses of the countries.

Is the 2003 SARS epidemic over? Long-term effects of epidemic exposure on mortality among older adults

Infectious diseases put health of millions at risk and induce large socioeconomic costs each year. However, the long-term effects of exposure to infectious diseases on the elderly have received minimal attention. Using data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, this study adopts a differences-in-differences strategy to evaluate the long-term effects of epidemic exposure on old-age mortality. We find that intense exposure to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic led to an increase in old-age mortality after the SARS outbreak. We provide some suggestive evidence that exposure to SARS increased psychological stress and limitations in physical activities among old people.

COVID-19 impacts of inbound tourism on Australian economy

The pandemic COVID-19 has severely impacted upon the world economy, devastating the tourism industry globally. This paper estimates the short-run economic impacts of the inbound tourism industry on the Australian economy during the pandemic. The analysis covers effects both at the macroeconomic as well as at the industry and occupation level, from direct contribution (using tourism satellite accounts) to economy-wide effects (using the computable general equilibrium modelling technique). Findings show that the pandemic affects a range of industries and occupations that are beyond the tourism sector. The paper calls for strong support from the government on tourism as the recovery of tourism can deliver spillover benefits for other sectors and across the whole spectrum of occupations in the labour market.

Death, demography and the denominator: Age-adjusted Influenza-18 mortality in Ireland

Using the Irish experience of the 1918-1919 Spanish flu pandemic ("Influenza-18"), we demonstrate how pandemic mortality statistics can be sensitive to the demographic composition of a country. We build a new spatially disaggregated population database for Ireland's 32 counties for 1911-1920 with vital statistics on births, ageing, migration and deaths. Our principal contribution is to show why, and how, age-at-death data should be used to construct the age-standardised statistics necessary to make meaningful comparisons of mortality rates across time and space. We conclude that studies of the economic consequences of pandemics must better control for demographic factors if they are to yield useful policy-relevant insights. For example, while Northern Ireland had a higher crude death rate during the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, it also has an older population; age-adjusted mortality paints a very different picture.

Postpartum medical utilization: The role of prenatal economic activity and living costs

This study is the first to explore the extent to which prenatal economic fluctuations affect postpartum outpatient care utilization during three-month, six-month, and one-year postpartum periods in Taiwan and to document their counter-cyclical patterns for economic activity and pro-cyclical patterns for the CPI change rate. We present evidence that medical care utilization occurring during the postpartum period is sensitive to economic activity within the first trimester of pregnancy and the CPI change rate within the second trimester. The findings herein reveal that negative prenatal economic shocks lead to a higher probability of cesarean section, more outpatient visits for depressive disorders, hypertension, gestational diabetes, and anemia in the pregnancy period, and a lower number of prenatal care visits that could deteriorate postpartum maternal health. Moreover, our results are consistent with low-salary and private-sector-employed mothers who face credit constraints and experience the risk of losing their job, respectively, during a decline in economic activity and who subsequently suffer from nutritional deficits and maternal stress that lead to postpartum health deterioration. Conversely, high-salary mothers do not face credit constraints and have greater coping ability to deal with stress and nutritional problems, while public-sector-employed mothers are affected only by nutrition.

Uncertainty Due to Infectious Diseases and Stock–Bond Correlation

We study the non-linear causal relation between uncertainty-due-to-infectious-diseases and stock–bond correlation. To this end, we use high-frequency 1-min data to compute daily realized measures of correlation and jumps, and then, we employ a nonlinear Granger causality test with the use of artificial neural networks so as to investigate the predictability of this type of uncertainty on realized stock–bond correlation and jumps. Our findings reveal that uncertainty-due-to-infectious-diseases has significant predictive value on the changes of the stock–bond relation.

Heterogeneous Shareholders’ Participation, COVID-19 Impact, and Innovation Decisions of State-Owned Firms: Evidence from China

Innovation ability has become an important factor affecting the global competitiveness and sustainable development of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China, particularly during the COVID-19 period. This study examined the association between heterogeneous shareholders and SOE innovation, in addition to the moderating impact of corporate governance characteristics and the COVID-19 pandemic on this association. Using data from Chinese A-share listed mixed ownership enterprises (MOEs), we found that the mixed ownership reform of SOEs positively affected firm innovation compared to other MOEs by reducing agency costs, indicating that the manager view channel was proven. We also found that heterogeneous shareholders resulted in more innovation output in state-owned holding mixed ownership enterprises (SHMOEs) with affiliated managers, in those audited by lower reputation accounting firms or that had a lower external marketization, or during the COVID-19 period. The implications of this study are of importance for improving heterogeneous shareholders’ active participation in the mixed ownership reform of SOEs.

Beyond COVID-19 Pandemic: An Integrative Review of Global Health Crisis Influencing the Evolution and Practice of Corporate Social Responsibility

Background: Global health crisis continues to drive the dynamics of corporate social responsibility (CSR) across industries with self-perpetuating momentum. From a historical point of view, more than a century of immense corporate fecundity has formed the ecological conditions and shaped current understanding of the effect of public health on CSR. This study sought to examine the extent to which companies are able to balance their business interest with social interest through health-related CSR and how knowledge of them can help explain the potential impact of COVID-19. Method: This study employs a narrative review of current literature; however, the integrative strategy was combined with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist to rigorously select the necessary articles for proper integrative synthesis. Results: We note that in the pursuit of their social responsibility, corporate enterprises struggle to balance the interest of society and their own interest. Genuine CSR activities such as donations are often undermined by unbridled and excessive desire to draw society on themselves to reap economic benefits are largely dominated by the need to advance. There are signals that enterprises might see COVID-19-related CSR as an entry door to increase corporate influence thereby commercializing the pandemic. Conclusions: The impact of COVID-19 on CSR is epochal. There is a moral obligation for enterprises to reform current risk assessments and collaborate more deeply with state agencies to invest in the health and safety inspections at the world place. CSR strategies must be proactive to endure other unknown pandemics with equal capacity to disrupt business operations. Companies must create innovative and regular activities to educate its stakeholders to become more committed to safeguarding future enterprise-based defense mechanism needed to diagnose, protect, treat, and rehabilitate victims and those threatened by pandemics and other emergencies that affect the stability of an organization to reduce its cost and protect revenue.

Economic freedom, pandemics, and robust political economy

What is the relationship, if any, between economic freedom and pandemics? This paper addresses this question from a robust political economy approach. As is the case with recovery from natural disasters or warfare, a society that is relatively free economically offers economic actors greater flexibility to adapt to pandemics. We argue that societies that are more economically free will be more robust to the impact from pandemics, illustrated by shorter time for economic recovery. We illustrate this relationship by testing how initial levels of economic freedom (at the start of the major influenza pandemics of the 20th century) temper contractions and accelerate recoveries for 20 OECD countries.

Hosting in turbulent times: Hoteliers' perceptions and strategies to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic

This research examines hoteliers' perceptions and strategies in light of the Covid-19 pandemic and their predictions about an uncertain industry that has shifted attention to safety and hygiene concerns to regain guests' trust. A cross-sectional study comprised of four assessments with hoteliers worldwide (N_{study 1} = 144; N_study2 = 100; N_study3 = 97; N_study4 = 66) was conducted between April and June 2020. Hoteliers' forecasts and operating procedures were assessed in light of crisis management, providing important insights for researchers and the hotel industry. Remarkably, most of the hoteliers predict that the crisis is recoverable and believe that sales revenue will reach 2019 levels in 2021. They have implemented extraordinary recovery measures to make up for the loss of revenue caused by the crisis. From special health and safety protocols to long-term vouchers to promote reservations, strategic efforts to recover from the pandemic are ongoing.

Explaining stock markets' performance during the COVID‐19 crisis: Could Google searches be a significant behavioral indicator?

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the pandemic on the performance of stock markets, focusing on the behavioral influence of the fear due to COVID‐19. Using a data set of 10 developed countries during the period December 31, 2019, to September 30, 2020, we examine the impact of COVID‐19 on the performance of the stock markets. We incorporate the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic using the following variables: (a) the number of new COVID‐19 cases, which was widely used as the main explanatory variable for market performance in early financial studies, and (b) a Google Search index, which collects the number of Google searches related to COVID‐19 and incorporates the health risk and the fear of COVID‐19 (the higher the number of searches for Covid terms, the higher the index value, and the higher the fear index). We employ our input into an EGARCH(1,1,1) model, and the findings show that the Google Search index enables us to draw statistically significant information regarding the impact of the COVID‐19 fear on the performance of the stock markets. On the other hand, the variable of the number of new COVID‐19 cases does not have any statistically significant influence on the performance of the stock markets. Google searches could be a useful tool for supporters of behavioral finance, scholars, and practitioners.

The nCOVID-19 and financial stress in the USA: health is wealth

Since its first report in the USA on 13 January 2020, the novel coronavirus (nCOVID-19) pandemic like in other previous epicentres in India, Brazil, China, Italy, Spain, UK, and France has until now hampered economic activities and financial markets. To offer one of the first empirical insights into the economic/financial effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in the USA, this study utilized the daily frequency data for the period 25 February 2020-30 March 2020. By employing the empirical Markov switching regression approach and the compliments of cointegration techniques, the study establishes a two-state (stable and distressing) financial stress situation resulting from the effects of COVID-19 daily deaths, COVID-19 daily recovery, and the USA' economic policy uncertainty. From the result, it is assertive that daily recovery from COVID-19 eases financial stress, while the reported daily deaths from COVID-19 further hamper financial stress in the country. Moreover, the uncertainty of the USA' economic policy has also cost the Americans more financial stress and other socio-economic challenges. While the cure for COVID-19 remains elusive, as a policy instrument, the USA and similar countries with high severity of COVID-19 causalities may intensify and sustain the concerted efforts targeted at attaining a landmark recovery rate.

The impact of Covid-19, associated behaviours and policies on the UK economy: A computable general equilibrium model

We estimate the potential impact of COVID-19 on the United Kingdom economy, including direct disease effects, preventive public actions and associated policies. A sectoral, whole-economy macroeconomic model was linked to a population-wide epidemiological demographic model to assess the potential macroeconomic impact of COVID-19, together with policies to mitigate or suppress the pandemic by means of home quarantine, school closures, social distancing and accompanying business closures. Our simulations indicate that, assuming a clinical attack rate of 48% and a case fatality ratio of 1.5%, COVID-19 alone would impose a direct health-related economic burden of £39.6bn (1.73% of GDP) on the UK economy. Mitigation strategies imposed for 12 weeks reduce case fatalities by 29%, but the total cost to the economy is £308bn (13.5% of GDP); £66bn (2.9% of GDP) of which is attributable to labour lost from working parents during school closures, and £201bn (8.8% of GDP) of which is attributable to business closures. Suppressing the pandemic over a longer period of time may reduce deaths by 95%, but the total cost to the UK economy also increases to £668bn (29.2% of GDP), where £166bn (7.3% of GDP) is attributable to school closures and 502bn (21.9% of GDP) to business closures. Our analyses suggest Covid-19 has the potential to impose unprecedented economic costs on the UK economy, and whilst public actions are necessary to minimise mortality, the duration of school and business closures are key to determining the economic cost. The initial economic support package promised by the UK government may be proportionate to the costs of mitigating Covid-19, but without alternative measures to reduce the scale and duration of school and business closures, the economic support may be insufficient to compensate for longer term suppression of the pandemic which could generate an even greater health impact through major recession.

Integrating economic and health evidence to inform Covid-19 policy in low- and middle- income countries

Covid-19 requires policy makers to consider evidence on both population health and economic welfare. Over the last two decades, the field of health economics has developed a range of analytical approaches and contributed to the institutionalisation of processes to employ economic evidence in health policy. We present a discussion outlining how these approaches and processes need to be applied more widely to inform Covid-19 policy; highlighting where they may need to be adapted conceptually and methodologically, and providing examples of work to date. We focus on the evidential and policy needs of low- and middle-income countries; where there is an urgent need for evidence to navigate the policy trade-offs between health and economic well-being posed by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Costing the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Exploratory Economic Evaluation of Hypothetical Suppression Policy in the United Kingdom

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to cost and calculate the relative cost-effectiveness of the hypothetical suppression policies found in the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team model.

METHODS

Key population-level disease projections in deaths, intensive care unit bed days, and non-intensive care unit bed days were taken from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team report of March 2020, which influenced the decision to introduce suppression policies in the United Kingdom. National income loss estimates were from a study that estimated the impact of a hypothetical pandemic on the UK economy, with sensitivity analyses based on projections that are more recent. Individual quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) loss and costed resource use inputs were taken from published sources.

RESULTS

Imperial model projected suppression polices compared to an unmitigated pandemic, even with the most pessimistic national income loss scenarios under suppression (10%), give incremental cost-effectiveness ratios below £50 000 per QALY. Assuming a maximum reduction in national income of 7.75%, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for Imperial model projected suppression versus mitigation are below 60 000 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Results are uncertain and conditional on the accuracy of the Imperial model projections; they are also sensitive to estimates of national income loss. Nevertheless, it would be difficult to claim that the hypothetical Imperial model-projected suppression policies are obviously cost-ineffective relative to the alternatives available. Despite evolving differences between government policy and Imperial model-projected suppression policy, it is hoped this article will provide some early insight into the trade-offs that are involved.

Access to primary healthcare during lockdown measures for COVID-19 in rural South Africa: an interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated whether implementation of lockdown orders in South Africa affected ambulatory clinic visitation in rural Kwa-Zulu Natal (KZN).

DESIGN

Observational cohort SETTING: Data were analysed from 11 primary healthcare clinics in northern KZN.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 46 523 individuals made 89 476 clinic visits during the observation period.

EXPOSURE OF INTEREST

We conducted an interrupted time series analysis to estimate changes in clinic visitation with a focus on transitions from the prelockdown to the level 5, 4 and 3 lockdown periods.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Daily clinic visitation at ambulatory clinics. In stratified analyses, we assessed visitation for the following subcategories: child health, perinatal care and family planning, HIV services, non-communicable diseases and by age and sex strata.

RESULTS

We found no change in total clinic visits/clinic/day at the time of implementation of the level 5 lockdown (change from 90.3 to 84.6 mean visits/clinic/day, 95% CI -16.5 to 3.1), or at the transitions to less stringent level 4 and 3 lockdown levels. We did detect a >50% reduction in child healthcare visits at the start of the level 5 lockdown from 11.9 to 4.7 visits/day (-7.1 visits/clinic/day, 95% CI -8.9 to 5.3), both for children aged <1 year and 1-5 years, with a gradual return to prelockdown within 3 months after the first lockdown measure. In contrast, we found no drop in clinic visitation in adults at the start of the level 5 lockdown, or related to HIV care (from 37.5 to 45.6, 8.0 visits/clinic/day, 95% CI 2.1 to 13.8).

CONCLUSIONS

In rural KZN, we identified a significant, although temporary, reduction in child healthcare visitation but general resilience of adult ambulatory care provision during the first 4 months of the lockdown. Future work should explore the impacts of the circulating epidemic on primary care provision and long-term impacts of reduced child visitation on outcomes in the region.

A preliminary study on exploring the critical success factors for developing COVID-19 preventive strategy with an economy centric approach

Purpose

In the wake of COVID-19, most of the countries at present, are in a dilemma whether to extend lockdown at the cost of economy or to improve the hard-hit economy by lifting the lockdown. It is indicated by the reputed organizations and medical fraternity that corona will stay here for a longer period contrary to the earlier assumptions. Hence the purpose of this study is to suggest a strategy which balances both preventive measures and economic losses to control the pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

There is a need for the identification of the critical success factors (CSFs) for developing COVID-19 preventive strategies to control the pandemic with an economy-centric approach.

Findings

The six CSFs identified are “Effective communication”, “Social distancing”, “Adopting new technology”, “Modify the rules and regulation at workplace”, “Sealing the borders of the territory” and “Strong leadership and government control”.

Research limitations/implications

The study has a vital contribution to literature as no previous study has identified CSFs for developing COVID-19 preventive strategies while focusing on the economy.

Practical implications

Further, these identified CSFs are helpful in medium and longer-term planning which is required to rebalance and re-energize the economy following this epidemic crisis.

Originality/value

The study has given a model that depicts the cause and influence relationship between the key factors in the system under question. The importance of study increases many fold, as resources are limited and the outcome of the study could be used to channelize the resources effectively.

A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries

The paper seeks to develop a predictive model for assessing the impact of the (COVID-19) pandemic on the economies of Eastern Europe, taking into account quarantine measures. Functions of the dependence on the number of the infected populations in Eastern Europe on pandemic duration were calculated based on trend analysis. Factors affecting the intensity of disease and the number of infected persons have been determined. Integral model of their influence has been built using regression analysis. Based on the values of the factors, the number of infected people and the rate of infection were predicted for each of the Eastern European countries. The prognostic duration of the stage of exponential disease growth and the total duration of quarantine (epidemiological saturation point) are substantiated. The predicted decline in Eastern European GDP due to COVID-19 has been estimated based on the construction of a prognostic regression model. The results obtained can be used by state authorities and economic agents as a tool for active and preventive response. They can also serve as an example of the urgent need to develop, especially in non-standard situations, mechanisms and products of open innovation.

The dynamic effects of infectious disease outbreaks: The case of pandemic influenza and human coronavirus

Pandemic influenza is a regularly recurring form of infectious disease; this work analyses its economic effects. Like many other infectious diseases influenza pandemics are usually of short, sharp duration. Human coronavirus is a less regularly recurring infectious disease. The human coronavirus pandemic of 2019 (COVID-19) has presented with seemingly high transmissibility and led to extraordinary socioeconomic disruption due to severe preventative measures by governments. To understand and compare these events, epidemiological and economic models are linked to capture the transmission of a pandemic from regional populations to regional economies and then across regional economies. In contrast to past pandemics, COVID-19 is likely to be of longer duration and more severe in its economic effects given the greater uncertainty surrounding its nature. The analysis indicates how economies are likely to be affected due to the risk-modifying behaviour in the form of preventative measures taken in response to the latest novel pandemic virus.

Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective

We provide quantitative predictions of first-order supply and demand shocks for the US economy associated with the COVID-19 pandemic at the level of individual occupations and industries. To analyse the supply shock, we classify industries as essential or non-essential and construct a Remote Labour Index, which measures the ability of different occupations to work from home. Demand shocks are based on a study of the likely effect of a severe influenza epidemic developed by the US Congressional Budget Office. Compared to the pre-COVID period, these shocks would threaten around 20 per cent of the US economy’s GDP, jeopardize 23 per cent of jobs, and reduce total wage income by 16 per cent. At the industry level, sectors such as transport are likely to be output-constrained by demand shocks, while sectors relating to manufacturing, mining, and services are more likely to be constrained by supply shocks. Entertainment, restaurants, and tourism face large supply and demand shocks. At the occupation level, we show that high-wage occupations are relatively immune from adverse supply- and demand-side shocks, while low-wage occupations are much more vulnerable. We should emphasize that our results are only first-order shocks—we expect them to be substantially amplified by feedback effects in the production network.

New Technology, Work and Employment in the era of COVID-19: reflecting on legacies of research

The outbreak of COVID‐19 is having a drastic impact on work and employment. This review piece outlines the relevance of existing research into new technology, work and employment in the era of COVID‐19. It is important to be retrospective and undertake both a historically and theoretically informed position on the impact of new technologies in the current crisis and beyond. Issues of control, surveillance and resistance have been central to work on the impact of technology on work and employment and these themes have been identified as central to the experience of work in the current crisis.

Social cohesion vs COVID-19

Purpose

The control of particularly virulent communicable diseases such as COVID-19 can be considered a global public good. Unabated contagion, both within and across borders, can result in a global public bad. More effective control – such as by flattening the epidemiological curve – could prevent severe social and economic disruption by allowing domestic health and social protection systems to more adequately respond to the health crisis. This article elaborates on some of the main elements of counter COVID-19 responses, drawing on emerging international good practices. While a full evaluation of policy effectiveness is still forthcoming, it is critical to review and synthesize the emerging lessons and evidence even this early.

Design/methodology/approach

This article reviews the international good practices in counter COVID-19 responses across countries.

Findings

Concerted efforts across borders, such as by sharing data and collaborating in research and by coordinating international support for countercyclical economic and health responses at the national level, are some of the options for countering COVID-19 at the international level. Within countries, more inclusive social protection and health systems, combined with countercyclical economic policies, and concerted behavioral changes tend to produce more effective collective action against the spread of the disease.

Research limitations/implications

This study is based on a review of emerging responses to the health crisis.

Practical implications

The policies and practices reviewed in this paper could feed into better-informed crisis responses to COVID-19 and other types of health shocks.

Originality/value

This study is among the first general reviews of policy responses to the COVID-19 health crisis.

Cost Benefit Analysis of Limited Reopening Relative to a Herd Immunity Strategy or Shelter in Place for SARS-CoV-2 in the United States

Background

Fierce debate about the health and financial tradeoffs presented by different COVID-19 pandemic mitigation strategies highlights the need for rigorous quantitative evaluation of policy options.

Objective

To quantify the economic value of the costs and benefits of a policy of continued limited reopening with social distancing relative to alternative COVID-19 response strategies in the United States.

Design

We estimate the number and value of quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained from mortality averted, with a value of $125,000 per QALY, and compare these benefits to the associated costs in terms of plausible effects on US GDP under a policy of continued limited reopening with social distancing relative to a policy of full reopening toward herd immunity. Using the same QALY value assumptions, we further evaluate cost-effectiveness of a return to Shelter-in-Place relative to a policy of limited reopening.

Setting

United States.

Measurements

QALY and cost as percent of GDP of limited reopening with continued social distancing relative to a strategy of full reopening aimed at achieving herd immunity; a limited reopening "budget" measured in the number of months before this strategy fails to demonstrate cost-effectiveness relative to a full reopening; a shelter-in-place "threshold" measured in the number of lives saved at which a month of sheltering in place demonstrates cost effectiveness relative to the limited reopening strategy.

Results

QALY benefits from mortality averted by continued social distancing and limited reopening relative to a policy of full reopening exceed projected GDP costs if an effective vaccine or therapeutic can be developed within 11.1 months from late May 2020. White House vaccine projections fall within this date, supporting a partial reopening strategy. One month of shelter-in-place restrictions provides QALY benefits from averted mortality that exceed the associated GDP costs relative to limited reopening if the restrictions prevent at least 154,586 additional COVID-19 deaths over the course of the pandemic. Current models of disease progression suggest that limited reopening will not cause this many additional deaths, again supporting a limited reopening strategy.

Limitation

Limited horizon of COVID-19 mortality projections; infection fatality ratio stable across strategies, ignoring both the potential for ICU overload to increase mortality and the deployment of partially effective therapeutics to decrease mortality; effect on GDP modeled as constant within a given phase of the pandemic; accounts for age and sex distribution of QALYs, but not effect of comorbidities; only considers impact from QALY lost due to mortality and from changes in GDP, excluding numerous other considerations, such as non-fatal COVID-19 morbidity, reduced quality of life caused by prolonged social distancing, or educational regression associated with prolonged school closures and restrictions.

Conclusions

A limited reopening to achieve partial mitigation of COVID-19 is cost effective relative to a full reopening if an effective therapeutic or vaccine can be deployed within 11.1 months of late May 2020. One additional month of shelter-in-place restrictions should only be imposed if it saves at least 154,586 lives per month before the development of an effective therapeutic or vaccine relative to limited reopening.

Access to primary healthcare during lockdown measures for COVID-19 in rural South Africa: a longitudinal cohort study

Objectives Public health interventions designed to interrupt COVID-19 transmission could have deleterious impacts on primary healthcare access. We sought to identify whether implementation of the nationwide lockdown (shelter-in-place) order in South Africa affected ambulatory clinic visitation in rural Kwa-Zulu Natal (KZN). Design Prospective, longitudinal cohort study Setting Data were analyzed from the Africa Health Research Institute Health and Demographic Surveillance System, which includes prospective data capture of clinic visits at eleven primary healthcare clinics in northern KwaZulu-Natal Participants A total of 36,291 individuals made 55,545 clinic visits during the observation period. Exposure of Interest We conducted an interrupted time series analysis with regression discontinuity methods to estimate changes in outpatient clinic visitation from 60 days before through 35 days after the lockdown period. Outcome Measures Daily clinic visitation at ambulatory clinics. In stratified analyses we assessed visitation for the following sub-categories: child health, perinatal care and family planning, HIV services, non-communicable diseases, and by age and sex strata. Results We found no change in total clinic visits/clinic/day from prior to and during the lockdown (-6.9 visits/clinic/day, 95%CI -17.4, 3.7) or trends in clinic visitation over time during the lockdown period (-0.2, 95%CI -3.4, 3.1). We did detect a reduction in child healthcare visits at the lockdown (-7.2 visits/clinic/day, 95%CI -9.2, -5.3), which was seen in both children <1 and children 1-5. In contrast, we found a significant increase in HIV visits immediately after the lockdown (8.4 visits/clinic/day, 95%CI 2.4, 14.4). No other differences in clinic visitation were found for perinatal care and family planning, non-communicable diseases, or among adult men and women. Conclusions In rural KZN, the ambulatory healthcare system was largely resilient during the national-wide lockdown order. A major exception was child healthcare visitation, which declined immediately after the lockdown but began to normalize in the weeks thereafter. Future work should explore efforts to decentralize chronic care for high-risk populations and whether catch-up vaccination programs might be required in the wake of these findings.

The socio-economic implications of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19): A review

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in over 4.3 million confirmed cases and over 290,000 deaths globally. It has also sparked fears of an impending economic crisis and recession. Social distancing, self-isolation and travel restrictions have lead to a reduced workforce across all economic sectors and caused many jobs to be lost. Schools have closed down, and the need for commodities and manufactured products has decreased. In contrast, the need for medical supplies has significantly increased. The food sector is also facing increased demand due to panic-buying and stockpiling of food products. In response to this global outbreak, we summarise the socio-economic effects of COVID-19 on individual aspects of the world economy.

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Central banks globally commit to a ‘Whatever it takes’ approach in an attempt to save the global economy.

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Europe pledges a €1.7tn rescue package.

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The road to economic recovery is predicted to be a long one, with a period of economic inactivity for years to come.

Estimating the money flow in the economy attributed to rotavirus disease and vaccination in the Netherlands using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) framework

Background: The economics of rotavirus gastroenteritis in infants <5 years old is well-known within healthcare. The financial consequences for families, employers and authorities are not so well explored. The present study evaluates how vaccine prevention changes money flows among those involved in the management of disease, and its consequences. Methods: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) framework has been developed reflecting the distribution of income and spending at equilibrium affected by rotavirus disease among all those concerned for 1 year. The data came from official sources and published literature. A comparison of the financial equilibrium between with and without a national rotavirus immunization program has been conducted, along with sensitivity analysis for the results. Results: The total financial cost difference at equilibrium between presence and absence of rotavirus vaccination was +€26.758 million over one year as a net economic surplus. The payment of vaccination (€19.194 million) by the government was offset by the increase in tax revenue (€14.561 million) and by the lower spending in treatment care (€7.998 million). Conclusion: Studying the financial flows between different transacting agents can demonstrate the financial burden of a disease and the benefits of its prevention on agents' income and spending.