Will cervical screening remain cost-effective in women offered the next generation nonavalent HPV vaccine? Results for four developed countries

Epidemiology of HPV-associated cancers past, present and future: towards prevention and elimination

Cervical cancer is the first cancer deemed amenable to elimination through prevention, and thus lessons from the epidemiology and prevention of this cancer type can provide information on strategies to manage other cancers. Infection with the human papillomavirus (HPV) causes virtually all cervical cancers, and an important proportion of oropharyngeal, anal and genital cancers. Whereas 20th century prevention efforts were dominated by cytology-based screening, the present and future of HPV-associated cancer prevention relies mostly on HPV vaccination and molecular screening tests. In this Review, we provide an overview of the epidemiology of HPV-associated cancers, their disease burden, how past and contemporary preventive interventions have shaped their incidence and mortality, and the potential for elimination. We particularly focus on the cofactors that could have the greatest effect on prevention efforts, such as parity and human immunodeficiency virus infection, as well as on social determinants of health. Given that the incidence of and mortality from HPV-associated cancers remain strongly associated with the socioeconomic status of individuals and the human development index of countries, elimination efforts are unlikely to succeed unless prevention efforts focus on health equity, with a commitment to both primary and secondary prevention.

Cost-effectiveness of primary human papillomavirus triage approaches among vaccinated women in Norway: A model-based analysis

As Norway considers revising triage approaches following their first adolescent cohort with human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination entering the cervical cancer screening program, we analyzed the health impact and cost-effectiveness of alternative primary HPV triage approaches for women initiating cervical cancer screening in 2023. We used a multimodeling approach that captured HPV transmission and cervical carcinogenesis to evaluate the health benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of alternative extended genotyping and age-based triage strategies under five-yearly primary HPV testing (including the status-quo screening strategy in Norway) for women born in 1998 (ie, age 25 in 2023). We examined 35 strategies that varied alternative groupings of high-risk HPV genotypes ("high-risk" genotypes; "medium-risk" genotypes or "intermediate-risk" genotypes), number and types of HPV included in each group, management of HPV-positive women to direct colposcopy or active surveillance, wait time for re-testing and age at which the HPV triage algorithm switched from less to more intensive strategies. Given the range of benchmarks for severity-specific cost-effectiveness thresholds in Norway, we found that the preferred strategy for vaccinated women aged 25 years in 2023 involved an age-based switch from a less to more intensive follow-up algorithm at age 30 or 35 years with HPV-16/18 genotypes in the "high-risk" group. The two potentially cost-effective strategies could reduce the number of colposcopies compared to current guidelines and simultaneously improve health benefits. Using age to guide primary HPV triage, paired with selective HPV genotype and follow-up time for re-testing, could improve both the cervical cancer program effectiveness and efficiency.

The impact of alternate HPV vaccination and cervical screening strategies in Japan: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

The Japanese 2020 cervical screening guidelines recommend conventional cervical cytology screening every 2-years for women aged 20-69 years. The nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has also recently been approved in Japan. We therefore evaluated the cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening strategies alongside universal nonavalent HPV vaccination of girls (12-16 years).

Methods

A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using an age-specific Markov microsimulation model for Japan to evaluate total costs, quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), colposcopies, biopsies, precancer and cervical cancer treatments for 29 combined vaccination and screening strategies (conventional cytology, liquid-based cytology (LBC), HPV testing, and HPV self-collection). A cohort of 100,000 girls (12-16 years old) over a lifetime offered the nonavalent HPV vaccine was used (current vaccination coverage = 0.08%, current screening coverage = 43.7%). A discount rate of 3% was applied to costs and QALYs. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to assess robustness of the findings. Costs were reported in US dollars (2023).

Findings

Compared with conventional cytology, evaluated strategies would incur an additional cost of US$839,280-738,182,669 and gain 62,755-247,347 quality-adjusted-life-years. HPV testing distinguishing HPV16/18 with reflex LBC (3-yearly) would be most cost-effective (ICER = US$7511 per QALY gained). At a willingness-to-pay (WTP) of 1-times gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the probability of it being cost-effective was 70%. At historically high vaccination coverage (70%) ICERs decreased overall but did not affect the ranking of the most cost-effective strategy. While a 5-yearly interval became more cost-effective than a 3-yearly interval. Including HPV self-collection for under-screened women made all strategies more cost-effective.

Interpretation

At current cervical screening participation (43.7%) and low vaccination coverage (<1.0%), HPV testing distinguishing HPV16/18 with reflex LBC (3-yearly) would be the most cost-effective screening strategy compared to conventional cytology (2-yearly).

Funding

Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (17H03589) and Grants of the National Cancer Center Japan (Gan Kenkyu Kaihatsuhi 31-A-20 and 2023-A-23).

Benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of cervical screening, triage and treatment strategies for women in the general population

In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched a strategy to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To support the strategy, the WHO published updated cervical screening guidelines in 2021. To inform this update, we used an established modeling platform, Policy1-Cervix, to evaluate the impact of seven primary screening scenarios across 78 low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) for the general population of women. Assuming 70% coverage, we found that primary human papillomavirus (HPV) screening approaches were the most effective and cost-effective, reducing cervical cancer age-standardized mortality rates by 63-67% when offered every 5 years. Strategies involving triaging women before treatment (with 16/18 genotyping, cytology, visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) or colposcopy) had close-to-similar effectiveness to HPV screening without triage and fewer pre-cancer treatments. Screening with VIA or cytology every 3 years was less effective and less cost-effective than HPV screening every 5 years. Furthermore, VIA generated more than double the number of pre-cancer treatments compared to HPV. In conclusion, primary HPV screening is the most effective, cost-effective and efficient cervical screening option in LMICs. These findings have directly informed WHO's updated cervical screening guidelines for the general population of women, which recommend primary HPV screening in a screen-and-treat or screen-triage-and-treat approach, starting from age 30 years with screening every 5 years or 10 years.

A modelled analysis of the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HPV vaccination

COVID-19 disrupted school attendance in many countries, delaying routine adolescent vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) in some settings. We used Policy1-Cervix, a dynamic model simulating HPV transmission, natural history, vaccination, cervical screening, and diagnosis of HPV-related cancers, to estimate the impact on HPV-related cancers from disruptions to HPV vaccination in a high-income setting. A baseline scenario of no disruption to HPV vaccination was modelled, which assumed uptake of the nonavalent vaccine at the age of 12 by 82.4% of females and 75.5% of males, as is the coverage in Australia. Additional lifetime HPV-related cancer cases were calculated for three disruption scenarios affecting one birth cohort (2008; aged 12 in 2020) compared to the baseline scenario: (1) 1-year delay (no doses missed); (2) 1- to 7-year delay (slow catch-up); (3) no catch-up (herd effects only). A fourth scenario assumed no catch-up HPV vaccination for two birth cohorts, that is all individuals born in 2008 and in 2009 missed vaccination (worst-case scenario). Compared to 1532 HPV-related cancer cases estimated for the baseline no disruption scenario, we found a 1-year delay could result in ≤0.3% more HPV-related cancers (n = 4) but the increase would be greater if catch-up was slower (5%; n = 70), and especially if there was no catch-up (49%; n = 750). Additional cancers for a single missed cohort were most commonly cervical (23% of the additional cases) and anal cancers (16%) in females and oropharyngeal cancers in males (20%). In the worst-case scenario of two birth cohorts missing vaccination, ≤62% more HPV-related cancers would be diagnosed (n = 1892). In conclusion, providing catch-up of missed HPV vaccines is conducted, short-term delays in vaccinating adolescents are unlikely to have substantial long-term effects on cancer.

Perspectives Associated with Human Papillomavirus Vaccination in Adults: A Qualitative Study

BACKGROUND

In the last several decades, vaccine hesitancy has become a significant global public health concern. The human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has been on the United States of America (USA) market since 2006, with extended approval up to age 45 granted in 2018. To date, there is limited research evaluating barriers and facilitators related to HPV vaccine initiation among adults and the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on individuals' vaccine-related behaviors. This study's main objective was to characterize the contributing factors that could promote or inhibit HPV vaccine uptake for adults.

METHODS

A qualitative approach consisting of focus group discussions (FGDs) was used for this study. The FGD guide was informed by concepts from the Transtheoretical Model, Health Belief Model, and Social Cognitive Theory. All virtual FGDs were led by two researchers, who recorded audio for data collection. The data were transcribed by a third party, and the transcripts were imported into Dedoose^® software and analyzed using the six steps recommended by thematic analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 35 individuals participated in 6 focus groups over a 6-month period. Thematic analysis revealed four themes: (1) Intrinsic motivators for HPV vaccination, (2) Extrinsic motivators for HPV vaccination, (3) Vaccine promotion strategies, and (4) Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on vaccine hesitancy.

CONCLUSION

Both intrinsic and extrinsic factors play a role in influencing HPV vaccine uptake, and such considerations can guide efforts to improve the odds of HPV vaccination in working-age adults.

Maximizing the cost-effectiveness of cervical screening in the context of routine HPV vaccination by optimizing screening strategies with respect to vaccine uptake: a modeling analysis

BACKGROUND

Regarding primary and secondary cervical cancer prevention, the World Health Organization proposed the cervical cancer elimination strategy that requires countries to achieve 90% uptake of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines and 70% screening uptake. The optimal cervical screening strategy is likely different for unvaccinated and vaccinated cohorts upon national HPV immunization. However, health authorities typically only provide a one-size-fits-all recommendation for the general population. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness for determining the optimal screening strategies for vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts.

METHODS

We considered the women population in Hong Kong which has a unique HPV infection and cervical cancer epidemiology compared to other regions in China and Asia. We used mathematical models which comprise a deterministic age-structured compartmental dynamic component and a stochastic individual-based cohort component to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies for cervical screening. Following the recommendations in local guidelines in Hong Kong, we considered strategies that involved cytology, HPV testing, or co-testing as primary cervical screening. We also explored the impacts of adopting alternative de-intensified strategies for vaccinated cohorts. The 3-year cytology screening was used as the base comparator while no screening was also considered for vaccinated cohorts. Women's lifetime life years, quality-adjusted life years, and costs of screening and treatment were estimated from the societal perspective based on the year 2022 and were discounted by 3% annually. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were compared to a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of one gross domestic product per capita (US $47,792). Probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Among unvaccinated cohorts, the strategy that adds reflex HPV to triage mild cytology abnormality generated more life years saved than cytology-only screening and could be a cost-effective alternative. Among vaccinated cohorts, when vaccine uptake was 85% (based on the uptake in 2022), all guideline-based strategies (including the cytology-only screening) had ICERs above the WTP threshold when compared with no screening if the vaccine-induced protection duration was 20 years or longer. Under the same conditions, HPV testing with genotyping triage had ICERs (compared with no screening) below the WTP threshold if the routine screening interval was lengthened to 10 and 15 years or screening was initiated at ages 30 and 35 years.

CONCLUSIONS

HPV testing is a cost-effective alternative to cytology for vaccinated cohorts, and the associated optimal screening frequency depends on vaccine uptake. Health authorities should optimize screening recommendations by accounting for population vaccine uptake.

Comparison of the performance of HPV DNA chip test and HPV PCR test in cervical cancer screening in rural China

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to evaluate the performance of two different principles of HPV testing in primary cervical cancer screening and ASC-US triage in rural areas.

METHODS

3,328 and 3,913 women were enrolled in Shanxi, China in 2017 and 2018, respectively, and screened using liquid-based cytology and different HPV tests with a 4-year follow-up. Different screening methods commonly used in clinical practice were evaluated.

RESULTS

In the HPV PCR test cohort, the prevalence of HPV infection was 14.90%. A total of 38 cases of CIN2+ were identified at baseline, 2 of which were in the HPV-negative cohort and the rest in the HPV-positive cohort (2 = 186.85, p < 0.001). Fifty-three cases of CIN2+ were accumulated over 4 years. The HPV infection rate in the HPV DNA chip test cohort was 21.10%. A total of 26 CIN2+ cases were identified at baseline, all in the HPV-positive population (2 = 92.96, p < 0.001). 54 CIN2+ cases were cumulative over 4 years. At 4-year follow-up, HPV-negative results were significantly more protective against cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) than normal cytologic results at baseline. HPV screening was more sensitive and specific than cytologic screening (using ASC-US as the threshold) and performed better on the HPV DNA microarray test. In addition, compared with HPV 16/18 testing, sensitivity increases and specificity decreases when using HPV testing for cytologic ASC-US triage, regardless of which HPV test is used.

CONCLUSION

In the rural areas where we implemented the study, HPV tests performed well for screening than LBC and HPV DNA chip testing performed better than HPV PCR testing in the screening cohort. Optimal screening was achieved technically when used in combination with LBC for ASC-US population triage, without thinking the feasibility for resource availability.

Identifying a Single Optimal Integrated Cervical Cancer Prevention Policy in Norway: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

Interventions targeting the same disease but at different points along the disease continuum (e.g., screening and vaccination to prevent cervical cancer [CC]) are often evaluated in isolation, which can affect cost-effectiveness profiles and policy conclusions. We evaluated nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine (9vHPV) compared with bivalent HPV vaccine (2vHPV) alongside deintensified screening intervals for a vaccinated birth cohort to inform a single optimal integrated CC prevention policy.

METHODS

Using a multimodeling approach, we evaluated the health and economic impacts of alternative CC screening strategies for a Norwegian birth cohort eligible for HPV vaccination in 2021 assuming they received 1) 2vHPV or 2) 9vHPV. We conducted 1) a restricted analysis that evaluated the optimal HPV vaccine under current screening guidelines; and 2) a comprehensive analysis including alternative screening and vaccination strategy combinations. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and evaluated them according to different cost-effectiveness thresholds.

RESULTS

Assuming a cost-effectiveness threshold of $40,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, we found that, while holding screening intensity fixed, switching the routine vaccination program in Norway from 2vHPV to 9vHPV would not be considered cost-effective (ICER of $132,700 per QALY gained). However, when allowing for varying intensities of CC screening, we found that switching to 9vHPV would be cost-effective compared with 2vHPV under an alternative threshold of $55,000 per QALY gained, if coupled with reductions in the number of lifetime screens.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis highlights the importance of evaluating the full potential policy landscape for country-level decision makers considering policy adoption, including nonindependent primary and secondary prevention efforts, to draw appropriate conclusions and avoid sub-optimal outcomes.

HIGHLIGHTS

Without evaluating the full potential policy landscape, including primary and secondary prevention efforts, country-level decision makers may not be able to draw appropriate policy conclusions, resulting in suboptimal outcomes.An applied example from cervical cancer prevention in Norway compared a restricted analysis of current screening guidelines to a comprehensive analysis including alternative screening and vaccination strategy combinations.We found that a switch from bivalent to nonavalent human papillomavirus vaccine would be considered cost-effective in Norway if coupled with reductions in the number of lifetime screens compared with the current screening strategy.A comprehensive analysis that considers how different types of interventions along the disease continuum affect each other will be critical for decision makers interpreting cost-effectiveness analysis results.

Evaluation of partial genotyping with HPV16/18 for triage of HPV positive, cytology negative women in the COMPACT study

Objective

While cytology-based screening programs have significantly reduced mortality and morbidity from cervical cancer, the global consensus is that primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing increases detection of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and invasive cancer. However, the optimal triage strategy for HPV+ women to avoid over-referral to colposcopy may be setting specific. We compared absolute and relative risk (RR) of >CIN2/3 within 12 months of a negative cytologic result in women HPV16/18+ compared to those with a 12-other high-risk HPV (hrHPV) genotype to identify women at greatest risk of high-grade disease and permit less aggressive management of women with other hrHPV infections.

Methods

Participants were 14,160 women aged 25–69 years with negative cytology participating in the COMparison of HPV genotyping And Cytology Triage (COMPACT) study. Women who were HPV16/18+ were referred to colposcopy. Those with a 12-other hrHPV type underwent repeat cytology after 6 months and those with >abnormal squamous cells of undetermined significance went to colposcopy.

Results

Absolute risk of >CIN2 in HPV16/18+ women was 19.5% (95% CI=12.4%–29.4%). In women 25–29 years and HPV16+ it was 40.0% (95% CI=11.8%–76.9%). Absolute risk of >CIN3 in women HPV16/18+ was 11.0% (95% CI=5.9%–19.6%). For women 30–39 years and HPV16+ it was 23.1% (95% CI=5.0%–53.8%). Overall risk of >CIN2, >CIN3 in women with a 12-other hrHPV HPV type was 5.6% (95% CI=3.1%–10.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI=1.6%–7.2%) respectively. RR of >CIN2, >CIN3 in HPV16/18+ vs. 12-other hrHPV was 3.5 (95% CI=1.7–7.3) and 3.3 (95% CI=1.2–8.8), respectively.

Conclusion

Primary HPV screening with HPV16/18 partial genotyping is a promising strategy to identify women at current/future risk of >CIN2 in Japan without over-referral to colposcopy.

Trial Registration

UMIN Clinical Trials Registry Identifier: UMIN000013203

The impact of a universal human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination program on lower genital tract dysplasia and genital warts

Assess Ontario's school-based human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program on reducing rates of cervical dysplasia, colposcopy services and treatment for genital warts, cervical conization, cryotherapy and laser vaporization of the lower genital tract. Women born in 1995 in Ontario, Canada were the first cohort of students to receive the vaccine. We followed these women from age 18-23 and identified pap test cytology results, referral and attendance at colposcopy, treatment of HPV related warts and treatment of lower-genital tract dysplasia using administrative databases. We compared the incidence of these outcomes to women born in 1985, followed during the same age period prior to access to the HPV vaccine. We calculated relative risk ratios for all outcomes over the 5-year period for the unvaccinated group compared to the vaccinated group. Results were stratified at the income and geographic level. A total of 221,039 women were included. Among vaccinated women, 5.2% percent had cytologic abnormalities and 2.7% required treatment for pre-invasive disease or warts compared to 9.2% and 5.2%, respectively among unvaccinated women. The relative risk of developing a low-grade cytologic abnormality if unvaccinated was 1.69 and 3.74 for high-grade abnormalities. The relative risk of requiring colposcopy if unvaccinated was 1.94 and they were 6.15 times more likely to require treatment. There were no differences between socio-economic groups and geographic regions. Vaccination programs are effective at decreasing rates of cervical dysplasia, lead to reduced need for colposcopy, treatment of HPV related warts and pre-invasive disease even at early ages.

Eliminating Cervical Cancer: Progress and Challenges for High-income Countries

In 2020, the World Health Organization launched a major initiative to eliminate cervical cancer globally. The initiative is built around the three key pillars of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, cervical screening and treatment, with associated intervention targets for the year 2030. The '90-70-90' targets specify that 90% of adolescent girls receive prophylactic HPV vaccination, 70% of adult women receive a minimum twice-in-a-lifetime cervical HPV test and 90% receive appropriate treatment for preinvasive or invasive disease. Modelling has shown that if these targets are met, the elimination of cervical cancer, defined as fewer than four cases per 100 000 women per annum, will be achieved within a century. Many high-income countries are well positioned to eliminate cervical cancer within the coming decades, but few have achieved '90-70-90' and many challenges must still be addressed to deliver these critical interventions effectively. This review considers the current status of cervical cancer control in relation to each of the three elimination pillars in high-income countries and discusses some of the developments that will assist countries in reaching these ambitious targets by 2030.

The road to cervical cancer elimination in Malaysia: Evaluation of the impact and cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus screening with self-collection and digital registry support

The WHO has launched a global strategy to eliminate cervical cancer through the scale‐up of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, cervical screening, and cervical cancer treatment. Malaysia has achieved high‐coverage HPV vaccination since 2010, but coverage of the existing cytology‐based program remains low. Pilot studies found HPV self‐sampling was acceptable and effective, with high follow‐up rates when a digital registry was used, and recently the Malaysian Government announced plans for a national HPV‐based screening program. We therefore evaluated the impact of primary HPV screening with self‐collection in Malaysia in the context of Malaysia's existing vaccination program. We used the “Policy1‐Cervix” modeling platform to assess health outcomes, cost‐effectiveness, resource use and cervical cancer elimination timing (the year when cervical cancer rates reach four cases per 100 000 women) of implementing primary HPV testing with self‐collection, assuming 70% routine‐screening coverage could be achieved. Based on available data, we assumed that compliance with follow‐up was 90% when a digital registry was used, but that compliance with follow‐up would be 50‐75% without the use of a digital registry. We found that the current vaccination program would prevent 27 000 to 32 200 cervical cancer cases and 11 700 to 14 000 deaths by 2070. HPV testing with a digital registry was cost‐effective (CER = $US 6953‐7549 < $US 11 373[<1×GDP per capita]) and could prevent an additional 15 900 to 17 800 cases and 9700 to 10 600 deaths by 2070, expediting national elimination by 11 to 20 years, to 2055 to 2059. If HPV screening were implemented without a digital registry, there would be 1800 to 4900 fewer deaths averted by 2070 and the program would be less cost‐effective. These results underline the importance of HPV testing as a key elimination pillar in Malaysia.

From cervical cancer elimination to eradication of vaccine-type human papillomavirus: Feasibility, public health strategies and cost-effectiveness

The Director-General of the World Health Organization has called for global action towards elimination of cervical cancer as a public health problem. Cervical cancer is caused by human papillomavirus (HPV), an infectious agent with no non-human reservoir. One way to achieve this is through very high levels of vaccine coverage that could enable global eradication of vaccine-type HPV. Using the case study of India, we show that HPV eradication can meet all the Dahlem and Strüngmann criteria for feasibility of eradication. It can be achieved with 90% gender-neutral HPV vaccine coverage together with 95% coverage in high-risk groups such as female sex workers. Such a strategy would likely be cost-effective compared to no vaccination. Although it would be more costly in the short-term than achieving cervical cancer elimination alone, it would save costs in the long-term by removing or at least sharply reducing the need for preventive measures.

Cervical screening in high-income countries: the need for quality assurance, adjunct biomarkers and rational adaptation to HPV vaccination

We here discuss human papillomavirus (HPV)-based screening avenues to achieve elimination of cervical cancer as a public health problem in high-income country (HIC) settings, covering both the most recent data on the performance of HPV testing, as well as the currently most robust triage methods that are known. We also provide an outlook to several other promising, yet not fully established, options for triage that have been proposed, including methylation, dual staining, machine learning, and artificial intelligence. Finally, we discuss the key issue of how to adapt screening in the presence of programmatic HPV vaccination, and how this combination can best be leveraged for comprehensive cancer control. We conclude that, for the HIC setting, evidence-based and effective cervical screening methods are readily available, but whichever method or platform is chosen, we would propose that recurring audits of performance and population attendance remain common denominators for maintaining successful disease prevention.

Health economic evaluation of primary human papillomavirus screening in urban populations in China

BACKGROUND

On Nov 17, 2020, WHO launched a global initiative to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer through the implementation of HPV vaccination, cervical cancer screening and treatment for precancer and cancer. China has the largest burden of cervical cancer in the world, but only has a national cervical cancer screening program in rural areas since 2009. Here, we aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening in urban China, using Shenzhen City as an example.

METHODS

We use an extensively validated platform ('Policy1-Cervix'), calibrated to data from Shenzhen city and Guandong Province. We evaluated a range of strategies that have previously been implemented as pilot studies in China, or recommended as guidelines within China and globally, spanning primary HPV, cytology and co-testing strategies. We additionally considered alternate triaging methods, age ranges and screening intervals, resulting in 19 algorithms in total.

RESULTS

Of the 19 strategies considered, the most effective approach involved primary HPV testing. At 3- to 10-yearly intervals, primary HPV testing reduced the age-standardized cancer mortality rate by 37-71 %. The most cost-effective strategy was 5-yearly primary HPV testing with partial genotyping triage for ages 25-65, discharging to 10-yearly screening for low-risk women (ICER = US$7191/QALYS using 2018 costs; willingness-to-pay threshold<1xGDP [US$9771]). This strategy gave an incidence and mortality reduction of 56 % and 63 %, respectively. This remained the most cost-effective strategy under most conditions in sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSION

Primary HPV testing would be cost-effective in Shenzhen and could more than halve cervical cancer incidence rates to 6 per 100,000 over the long term. In order to achieve rates below 4 per 100,000, the elimination threshold set by the World Health Organization, vaccination will likely also be necessary.

Could HPV Testing on Self-collected Samples Be Routinely Used in an Organized Cervical Screening Program? A Modeled Analysis

BACKGROUND

Cervical screening on self-collected samples has mainly been considered for targeted use in underscreened women. Updated evidence supports equivalent sensitivity of PCR-based human papillomavirus (HPV) testing on self-collected and clinician-collected samples.

METHODS

Using a well-established model, we compared the lifetime impact on cancer diagnoses and deaths resulting from cervical screening using self-collected samples only, with and without the existing restriction in Australia to women aged 30+ years and ≥2 years overdue, compared with the mainstream program of 5-yearly HPV screening on clinician-collected samples starting at 25 years of age. We conservatively assumed sensitivity of HPV testing on self-collected relative to clinician-collected samples was 0.98. Outcomes were estimated either in the context of HPV vaccination ("routinely vaccinated cohorts;" uptake as in Australia) or in the absence of HPV vaccination ("unvaccinated cohorts").

RESULTS

In unvaccinated cohorts, the health benefits of increased participation from self-collection outweighed the worst case (2%) loss of relative test sensitivity even if only 15% of women, who would not otherwise attend, used it ("additional uptake"). In routinely vaccinated cohorts, population-wide self-collection could be marginally (0.2%-1.0%) less effective at 15% additional uptake but 6.2% to 12.4% more effective at 50% additional uptake. Most (56.6%-65.0%) of the loss in effectiveness in the restricted self-collection pathway in Australia results from the requirement to be 2 or more years overdue.

CONCLUSIONS

Even under pessimistic assumptions, any potential loss in test sensitivity from self-collection is likely outweighed by improved program effectiveness resulting from feasible levels of increased uptake.

IMPACT

Consideration could be given to offering self-collection more widely, potentially as an equal choice for women.See related commentary by Lim, p. 245.

Factors associated with compliance to cervical cancer screening in France: The EDIFICE 6 survey

INTRODUCTION

A nationwide cervical cancer (CC) screening program was implemented in France in 2018. Asymptomatic women are invited for a cytological test once every 3 years (age, 25-29 years), and an HPV test every 5 years (age, 30-65 years). We investigated the characteristics of women who are resistant to CC screening.

METHODS

Since 2005, the EDIFICE survey program has assessed attitudes toward cancer screening in France. The 6th edition (2017) included 12,046 representative women (age, 18-69 years). Social vulnerability was assessed using the EPICES score. Multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis identified factors correlated with nonuptake of CC screening.

RESULTS

Questionnaires from 4499 women (age, 25-65 years) with no history of cancer were analyzed; 88% (N = 3960) reported at least one test in their lifetime, and 73% (N = 3262) did the test in the previous 3 years. Compared to ever-screened women, never-screened women were younger (38 ± 11 yrs. vs 44 ± 12 yrs., P < 0.05), and more likely to be single (48% vs 20%, P < 0.05) and/or socially vulnerable (59% vs 38%, P < 0.05). In multivariate analysis, items significantly (P < 0.05) associated with never screening included living alone (OR = 2.26, 95% CI [1.85-2.75]) and social vulnerability (OR = 1.95 [1.59-2.40]). Women who were not compliant with recommendations were more likely to be older (mean age, 49.2 yrs. vs. 43.2 yrs), living alone (single, widowed or divorced, 40% vs. 30%, P < 0.05), and/or socially vulnerable (55% vs. 35%, P < 0.05; OR = 1.78, 95% CI [1.49-2.12]).

CONCLUSION

This analysis identified several factors associated with never screening and under-screening. Effective prevention messages should specifically target these populations.

Evaluating the performance of three different cervical cancer screening modalities in a large prospective population-based cohort

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to evaluate three different patterns of cervical cancer screening strategies for detection of cervical diseases.

METHODS

In total, 10,186 women aged 21-70 years attending cervical screening program were recruited and cotested by human papillomavirus (HPV) assays and cytology. Three-year histological follow-up data was recorded on women with abnormal screening results, and six clinically common screening algorithms were evaluated.

RESULTS

Significantly better protection against cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or worse (CIN2+) at three-year follow-up was associated with a negative HPV result than by normal cytology at baseline. HPV screening was more sensitive and less specific than cytology screening. Moreover, HPV screening with HPV16/18 and reflex cytology (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance [ASCUS] threshold) showed a similar sensitivity (94.6% vs. 98.2%, p = 0.125) and a superior specificity as compared to cotesting reflex HPV16/18 and cytology (ASCUS threshold) for CIN2+ (95.8% vs. 95.1%, p < 0.0001), achieving a colposcopy referral rate of 5.4%, and consuming 4.8 colposcopies and 4.4 cytology tests to find one CIN2+.

CONCLUSIONS

HPV screening with triage of HPV-positive women by HPV16/18 genotyping and cytology provided a good equilibrium between screening effectiveness, the number of cytology tests required, and referral rates; HPV testing was similar in sensitivity to cotesting and safer than cytology, thus especially suitable for large population-based screening programs.

Historical and projected hysterectomy rates in the USA: Implications for future observed cervical cancer rates and evaluating prevention interventions

BACKGROUND

SEER-reported cervical cancer incidence rates reflect the total female population including women no longer at risk due to hysterectomy. Hysterectomy rates have been declining in the United States as alternative treatments have become available, which could result in an apparent increase in SEER-reported cervical cancer rates. We aimed to obtain nationally representative historical data on hysterectomy rates in USA, use trends analysis to project rates back to 1935 and forward to 2035, and then predict the impact of changing hysterectomy rates on SEER-reported cervical cancer rates.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search of Medline, Embase, Premedline, Cochrane Central databases and extracted nationally-representative hysterectomy incidence data from 1965 to 2009, including data on the number of cervix-preserving (subtotal) procedures. We then projected rates back to 1935, and forward to 2035 based on trends from joinpoint regression. These rates were then used to estimate hysterectomy prevalence out to 2035, and then to predict the impact of changing hysterectomy rates on SEER-reported cervical cancer rates to 2035. We examined alternative assumptions regarding projected hysterectomy incidence rates out to 2035, including a scenario in which rates decline no further from 2009 rates, and a scenario where rates decline at twice the baseline rate.

RESULTS

Estimated age-standardized hysterectomy incidence increased from 2.4 to 10.6 per 1000 women between 1935 and 1975. Thereafter, rates are predicted to fall to 3.9 per 1000 by 2035. Subtotal hysterectomy procedures declined from being the predominant method in 1935 to less than 12% of procedures from 1970 onwards. Consequently, holding all else constant, an increase in SEER-reported age-standardized cervical cancer incidence rates (ages 0-85+) of 9% is expected from 2009 to 2035. The predictions were minimally impacted by alternative scenarios for future hysterectomy rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Declining hysterectomy rates have implications for the interpretation of SEER-reported cervical cancer rates. A background increase in cervical cancer rates due to decreasing population hysterectomy exposure may partially offset expected decreases from recent cervical screening changes recommended by the US Preventive Services Task Force. Evaluations of new cervical cancer prevention opportunities should consider the background impact of historical and projected hysterectomy rates.

Cervical cancer screening for individuals at average risk: 2020 guideline update from the American Cancer Society

The American Cancer Society (ACS) recommends that individuals with a cervix initiate cervical cancer screening at age 25 years and undergo primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing every 5 years through age 65 years (preferred); if primary HPV testing is not available, then individuals aged 25 to 65 years should be screened with cotesting (HPV testing in combination with cytology) every 5 years or cytology alone every 3 years (acceptable) (strong recommendation). The ACS recommends that individuals aged >65 years who have no history of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more severe disease within the past 25 years, and who have documented adequate negative prior screening in the prior 10 years, discontinue all cervical cancer screening (qualified recommendation). These new screening recommendations differ in 4 important respects compared with the 2012 recommendations: 1) The preferred screening strategy is primary HPV testing every 5 years, with cotesting and cytology alone acceptable where access to US Food and Drug Administration-approved primary HPV testing is not yet available; 2) the recommended age to start screening is 25 years rather than 21 years; 3) primary HPV testing, as well as cotesting or cytology alone when primary testing is not available, is recommended starting at age 25 years rather than age 30 years; and 4) the guideline is transitional, ie, options for screening with cotesting or cytology alone are provided but should be phased out once full access to primary HPV testing for cervical cancer screening is available without barriers. Evidence related to other relevant issues was reviewed, and no changes were made to recommendations for screening intervals, age or criteria for screening cessation, screening based on vaccination status, or screening after hysterectomy. Follow-up for individuals who screen positive for HPV and/or cytology should be in accordance with the 2019 American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology risk-based management consensus guidelines for abnormal cervical cancer screening tests and cancer precursors.

Type-specific Distribution of Cervical hrHPV Infection and the Association with Cytological and Histological Results in a Large Population-based Cervical Cancer Screening Program: Baseline and 3-year Longitudinal Data

Objectives: This study aimed to describe the study design, and to analyze the type-specific distribution of cervical high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) infection and its association with cytological and histological results in a large population-based screening program in Buji Street, Shenzhen, China.

Methods: A total of 10,186 women aged 21-70 years were co-tested by Cobas4800 HPV assay and liquid-based cytology. Women were referred to colposcopy by virtue of being HPV16/18-positive, Other hrHPV-positive/ cytology ≥ASCUS, or HPV-negative/ cytology ≥LSIL. Three-year histological follow-up data were recorded.

Results: The overall prevalence of hrHPV infection was 11.1%; among them, the highest type was Other hrHPV (8.9%), followed by HPV16 (1.6%) and HPV18 (0.6%). Moreover, the prevalence of hrHPV and that of HPV16 increased with cytological severity (P_trend <0.001). In the baseline phase, 106 women had cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2/3 (CIN2/3) and six had cervical cancers. During 3-year follow-up, 12 cases of CIN2/3 and no cancers were identified. For HPV16-positive women with normal cytology, the baseline risks of CIN2/3 or worse (CIN2+/CIN3+) were 15.5% (7.0-23.9%) and 4.2% (1.4-8.5%) respectively. For Other hrHPV-positive women with normal cytology, the cumulative 3-year risks of CIN2+/CIN3+ were 3.1% (1.0-5.2%) and 0.7% (0.3-2.1%) respectively. Strikingly, 75.8% (322/425) of abnormal cytology and 50.9% (29/57) HSIL cytology were attributed to Other hrHPV infection in HPV-positive women. Similarly, Other hrHPV infection led to large proportions of CIN2 (62.7%) and CIN3+ (43.9%) over 3-year follow-up.

Conclusions: The co-testing modality is a feasible, effective and safe option for cervical cancer screening in urban population. Great importance should also be attached to 'genotypes excluding HPV16/18' and separate detection of each genotype when considering screening and vaccination strategy.

The Impact of Different Screening Model Structures on Cervical Cancer Incidence and Mortality Predictions: The Maximum Clinical Incidence Reduction (MCLIR) Methodology

Background. To interpret cervical cancer screening model results, we need to understand the influence of model structure and assumptions on cancer incidence and mortality predictions. Cervical cancer cases and deaths following screening can be attributed to 1) (precancerous or cancerous) disease that occurred after screening, 2) disease that was present but not screen detected, or 3) disease that was screen detected but not successfully treated. We examined the relative contributions of each of these using 4 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models. Methods. The maximum clinical incidence reduction (MCLIR) method compares changes in the number of clinically detected cervical cancers and mortality among 4 scenarios: 1) no screening, 2) one-time perfect screening at age 45 that detects all existing disease and delivers perfect (i.e., 100% effective) treatment of all screen-detected disease, 3) one-time realistic-sensitivity cytological screening and perfect treatment of all screen-detected disease, and 4) one-time realistic-sensitivity cytological screening and realistic-effectiveness treatment of all screen-detected disease. Results. Predicted incidence reductions ranged from 55% to 74%, and mortality reduction ranged from 56% to 62% within 15 years of follow-up for scenario 4 across models. The proportion of deaths due to disease not detected by screening differed across the models (21%–35%), as did the failure of treatment (8%–16%) and disease occurring after screening (from 1%–6%). Conclusions. The MCLIR approach aids in the interpretation of variability across model results. We showed that the reasons why screening failed to prevent cancers and deaths differed between the models. This likely reflects uncertainty about unobservable model inputs and structures; the impact of this uncertainty on policy conclusions should be examined via comparing findings from different well-calibrated and validated model platforms.

HPV-FRAME: A consensus statement and quality framework for modelled evaluations of HPV-related cancer control

Intense research activity in HPV modelling over this decade has prompted the development of additional guidelines to those for general modelling. A specific framework is required to address different policy questions and unique complexities of HPV modelling. HPV-FRAME is an initiative to develop a consensus statement and quality-based framework for epidemiologic and economic HPV models. Its development involved an established process. Reporting standards have been structured according to seven domains reflecting distinct policy questions in HPV and cancer prevention and categorised by relevance to a population or evaluation. Population-relevant domains are: 1) HPV vaccination in pre-adolescent and young adolescent individuals; 2) HPV vaccination in older individuals; 3) targeted vaccination in men who have sex with men; 4) considerations for individuals living with HIV and 5) considerations for low- and middle-income countries. Additional considerations applicable to specific evaluations are: 6) cervical screening or integrated cervical screening and HPV vaccination approaches and 7) alternative vaccine types and alternative dosing schedules. HPV-FRAME aims to promote the development of models in accordance with an explicit framework, to better enable target audiences to understand a model's strength and weaknesses in relation to a specific policy question and ultimately improve the model's contribution to informed decision-making.

The impact of 10 years of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Australia: what additional disease burden will a nonavalent vaccine prevent?

Background: A National human papilloma virus (HPV) Vaccination Programme for the prevention of HPV infection and associated disease using the quadrivalent HPV vaccine (4vHPV) has been funded and implemented in Australia since 2007, initially for girls only and extended to boys in 2013, with uptake rates among the highest observed worldwide. Aim: We report on the impact of this national programme on HPV prevalence and associated disease burden and estimate the potential impact of adopting a nonavalent HPV (9vHPV) vaccine. Methods: We performed a non-systematic literature review of studies measuring the burden of HPV-associated disease and infection in Australia before and after introduction of HPV vaccination. We also included key national reports with estimates of HPV-related disease burden. Results: Substantial declines in high-grade cervical disease and genital warts among vaccine-eligible women have been observed. Reductions in genital warts incidence and HPV prevalence among heterosexual men of similar age were observed before introduction of the male vaccination programme, indicating a substantial herd effect. 9vHPV vaccine is expected to prevent up to 90% of cervical and 96% of anal cancers. Of an estimated 1,544 HPV-associated cancers in 2012, 1,242 would have been preventable by the 4vHPV vaccine and an additional 187 anogenital cancers by the 9vHPV vaccine. Conclusions: Vaccination using 4vHPV vaccine has had a large demonstrable impact on HPV-related disease in Australia. A switch to 9vHPV could further reduce the HPV-associated cancer burden. With continued high coverage among both males and females, elimination of vaccine-type HPV disease seems achievable in Australia.

Can cost-effectiveness results be combined into a coherent league table? Case study from one high-income country

BACKGROUND

Doubts exist around the value of compiling league tables for cost-effectiveness results for health interventions, primarily due to methods differences. We aimed to determine if a reasonably coherent league table could be compiled using published studies for one high-income country: New Zealand (NZ).

METHODS

Literature searches were conducted to identify NZ-relevant studies published in the peer-reviewed journal literature between 1 January 2010 and 8 October 2017. Only studies with the following metrics were included: cost per quality-adjusted life-year or disability-adjusted life-year or life-year (QALY/DALY/LY). Key study features were abstracted and a summary league table produced which classified the studies in terms of cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

A total of 21 cost-effectiveness studies which met the inclusion criteria were identified. There were some large methodological differences between the studies, particularly in the time horizon (1 year to lifetime) but also discount rates (range 0 to 10%). Nevertheless, we were able to group the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) into general categories of being reported as cost-saving (19%), cost-effective (71%), and not cost-effective (10%). The median ICER (adjusted to 2017 NZ$) was ~ $5000 per QALY/DALY/LY (~US$3500). However, for some interventions, there is high uncertainty around the intervention effectiveness and declining adherence over time.

CONCLUSIONS

It seemed possible to produce a reasonably coherent league table for the ICER values from different studies (within broad groupings) in this high-income country. Most interventions were cost-effective and a fifth were cost-saving. Nevertheless, study methodologies did vary widely and researchers need to pay more attention to using standardised methods that allow their results to be included in future league tables.

Pathways to a cancer-free future: A protocol for modelled evaluations to maximize the future impact of interventions on cervical cancer in Australia

OBJECTIVE

Australia's HPV vaccination and HPV-based cervical screening programs are changing the landscape in cervical cancer prevention. We aim to identify areas which can make the biggest further impact on cervical cancer burden. This protocol describes the first stage of a program of work called Pathways-Cervix that aims to generate evidence from modelled evaluations of interventions across the cervical cancer spectrum.

METHODS

Based on evidence from literature reviews and guidance from a multi-disciplinary Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC), the most relevant evaluations for prevention, diagnosis and treatment were identified.

RESULTS

Priority evaluations agreed by the SAC included: increasing/decreasing and retaining vaccination uptake at the current level; vaccinating older women; increasing screening participation; methods for triaging HPV-positive women; improving the diagnosis of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and cancer; treating cervical abnormalities and cancer; and vaccinating women treated for CIN2/3 to prevent recurrence. Evaluations will be performed using a simulation model, Policy1-Cervix previously used to perform policy evaluations in Australia. Exploratory modelling of interventions using idealised scenarios will initially be conducted in single birth cohorts. If these have a significant impact on findings then evaluations with more realistic assumptions will be conducted. Promising strategies will be investigated further by multi-cohort simulations predicting health outcomes, resource use and cost outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Pathways-Cervix will assess the relative benefits of strategies and treatment options in a systematic and health economic framework, producing a list of 'best buys' for future decision-making in cervical cancer control.

The combined impact of implementing HPV immunisation and primary HPV screening in New Zealand: Transitional and long-term benefits, costs and resource utilisation implications

BACKGROUND

In response to emergent evidence, many countries are transitioning from cytology-based to HPV screening. We evaluated the impact of an upcoming transition on health outcomes and resource utilisation in New Zealand.

METHODS

An extensively validated model of HPV transmission, vaccination, natural history and cervical screening ('Policy1-Cervix') was utilised to simulate a transition from three-yearly cytology for women 20-69 years to five-yearly HPV screening with 16/18 genotyping for women 25-69 years, accounting for population growth and the impact of HPV immunisation. Cervical cancer rates, resources use (test volumes), costs, and test positivity rates from 2015 to 2035 were estimated.

FINDINGS

By 2035, the transition to HPV screening will result in declines in cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates by 32% and 25%, respectively, compared to 2018. A potentially detectable 5% increase in cervical cancer incidence due to earlier detection is predicted for the year of transition. Annual numbers of women screened will fluctuate with the five-year screening interval. Cytology volumes will reduce by over 80% but colposcopy volumes will be similar to pre-transition rates, and program costs will be reduced by 16%. A 9% HPV test positivity rate is expected in the first round of HPV screening (2019-2023), with 2.7% of women referred for colposcopy. Transitioning from cytology to primary HPV cervical screening could avert 149 cancer cases and 45 deaths by 2035.

CONCLUSION

Primary HPV screening and vaccination will reduce cervical cancer and resources use. A small transient apparent increase of invasive cancer rates due to earlier detection may be detectable at the population level, reflecting the introduction of a more sensitive screening test. These findings can be used to inform health services planning and public communications surrounding program implementation.

Optimising future cervical screening strategies

The switch from primary cytology to primary high risk papillomavirus (HR-HPV) testing for cervical screening is now being implemented in a number of countries. The advantages of this are to increase screening sensitivity which will save lives, and at the same time to extend screening intervals. The challenge with HR-HPV testing is its relatively poor specificity which means identifying a large number of women who are HR-HPV positive with negative cytology. One way of tackling this is to use early recall, in order to select referral to colposcopy to those women who do not clear the virus over a period of 1-2 years, as done in the recently published English Pilot Study. Another challenge in optimising screening is to recognise that wide coverage with prophylactic vaccination will require fewer screens over the lifetime of vaccinated women to maintain cost-effectiveness. HR-HPV testing allows self sampling which could both encourage more women to be screened and be more convenient for those who do wish to be screened. Cervical cancer prevention which combines vaccination and screening now offers a future in which cervical cancer could become a rarity, but efficient strategies need to be implemented.

Impact of scaled up human papillomavirus vaccination and cervical screening and the potential for global elimination of cervical cancer in 181 countries, 2020-99: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Cervical screening and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination have been implemented in most high-income countries; however, coverage is low in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). In 2018, the Director-General of WHO announced a call to action for the elimination of cervical cancer as a public health problem. WHO has called for global action to scale-up vaccination, screening, and treatment of precancer, early detection and prompt treatment of early invasive cancers, and palliative care. An elimination threshold in terms of cervical cancer incidence has not yet been defined, but an absolute rate of cervical cancer incidence could be chosen for such a threshold. In this study, we aimed to quantify the potential cumulative effect of scaled up global vaccination and screening coverage on the number of cervical cancer cases averted over the 50 years from 2020 to 2069, and to predict outcomes beyond 2070 to identify the earliest years by which cervical cancer rates could drop below two absolute levels that could be considered as possible elimination thresholds-the rare cancer threshold (six new cases per 100 000 women per year, which has been observed in only a few countries), and a lower threshold of four new cases per 100 000 women per year.

METHODS

In this statistical trends analysis and modelling study, we did a statistical analysis of existing trends in cervical cancer worldwide using high-quality cancer registry data included in the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series published by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We then used a comprehensive and extensively validated simulation platform, Policy1-Cervix, to do a dynamic multicohort modelled analysis of the impact of potential scale-up scenarios for cervical cancer prevention, in order to predict the future incidence rates and burden of cervical cancer. Data are presented globally, by Human Development Index (HDI) category, and at the individual country level.

FINDINGS

In the absence of further intervention, there would be 44·4 million cervical cancer cases diagnosed globally over the period 2020-69, with almost two-thirds of cases occurring in low-HDI or medium-HDI countries. Rapid vaccination scale-up to 80-100% coverage globally by 2020 with a broad-spectrum HPV vaccine could avert 6·7-7·7 million cases in this period, but more than half of these cases will be averted after 2060. Implementation of HPV-based screening twice per lifetime at age 35 years and 45 years in all LMICs with 70% coverage globally will bring forward the effects of prevention and avert a total of 12·5-13·4 million cases in the next 50 years. Rapid scale-up of combined high-coverage screening and vaccination from 2020 onwards would result in average annual cervical cancer incidence declining to less than six new cases per 100 000 individuals by 2045-49 for very-high-HDI countries, 2055-59 for high-HDI countries, 2065-69 for medium-HDI countries, and 2085-89 for low-HDI countries, and to less than four cases per 100 000 by 2055-59 for very-high-HDI countries, 2065-69 for high-HDI countries, 2070-79 for medium-HDI countries, and 2090-2100 or beyond for low-HDI countries. However, rates of less than four new cases per 100 000 would not be achieved in all individual low-HDI countries by the end of the century. If delivery of vaccination and screening is more gradually scaled up over the period 2020-50 (eg, 20-45% vaccination coverage and 25-70% once-per-lifetime screening coverage by 2030, increasing to 40-90% vaccination coverage and 90% once-per-lifetime screening coverage by 2050, when considered as average coverage rates across HDI categories), end of the century incidence rates will be reduced by a lesser amount. In this scenario, average cervical cancer incidence rates will decline to 0·8 cases per 100 000 for very-high-HDI countries, 1·3 per 100 000 for high-HDI countries, 4·4 per 100 000 for medium-HDI countries, and 14 per 100 000 for low-HDI countries, by the end of the century.

INTERPRETATION

More than 44 million women will be diagnosed with cervical cancer in the next 50 years if primary and secondary prevention programmes are not implemented in LMICs. If high coverage vaccination can be implemented quickly, a substantial effect on the burden of disease will be seen after three to four decades, but nearer-term impact will require delivery of cervical screening to older cohorts who will not benefit from HPV vaccination. Widespread coverage of both HPV vaccination and cervical screening from 2020 onwards has the potential to avert up to 12·5-13·4 million cervical cancer cases by 2069, and could achieve average cervical cancer incidence of around four per 100 000 women per year or less, for all country HDI categories, by the end of the century. A draft global strategy to accelerate cervical cancer elimination, with goals and targets for the period 2020-30, will be considered at the World Health Assembly in 2020. The findings presented here have helped inform initial discussions of elimination targets, and ongoing comparative modelling with other groups is supporting the development of the final goals and targets for cervical cancer elimination.

FUNDING

National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Australia, part-funded via the NHMRC Centre of Excellence for Cervical Cancer Control (C4; APP1135172).

Does Male Circumcision Reduce Women's Risk of Sexually Transmitted Infections, Cervical Cancer, and Associated Conditions?

Background: Male circumcision (MC) is proven to substantially reduce men's risk of a number of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We conducted a detailed systematic review of the scientific literature to determine the relationship between MC and risk of STIs and associated conditions in women. Methods: Database searches by "circumcision women" and "circumcision female" identified 68 relevant articles for inclusion. Examination of bibliographies of these yielded 14 further publications. Each was rated for quality using a conventional rating system. Results: Evaluation of the data from the studies retrieved showed that MC is associated with a reduced risk in women of being infected by oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes and of contracting cervical cancer. Data from randomized controlled trials and other studies has confirmed that partner MC reduces women's risk not only of oncogenic HPV, but as well Trichomonas vaginalis, bacterial vaginosis and possibly genital ulcer disease. For herpes simplex virus type 2, Chlamydia trachomatis, Treponema pallidum, human immunodeficiency virus and candidiasis, the evidence is mixed. Male partner MC did not reduce risk of gonorrhea, Mycoplasma genitalium, dysuria or vaginal discharge in women. Conclusion: MC reduces risk of oncogenic HPV genotypes, cervical cancer, T. vaginalis, bacterial vaginosis and possibly genital ulcer disease in women. The reduction in risk of these STIs and cervical cancer adds to the data supporting global efforts to deploy MC as a health-promoting and life-saving public health measure and supplements other STI prevention strategies.

Human Papillomavirus and Oropharyngeal Cancer Among Indigenous Australians: Protocol for a Prevalence Study of Oral-Related Human Papillomavirus and Cost-Effectiveness of Prevention

Background

Oropharyngeal cancer is an important, understudied cancer affecting Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians. The human papillomavirus (HPV) is a significant risk factor for oropharyngeal cancer. Current generation HPV vaccines are effective against the 2 most common types of high-risk HPVs in cancer (hrHPVs 16/18).

Objectives

This study aims (1) to yield population estimates of oncogenic genotypes of HPV in the mouth and oropharynx of defined Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations; (2) to estimate the proportion of oropharyngeal cancer attributable to HPV among these Australian citizens; (3) to estimate the impact of HPV vaccination as currently implemented on rates of oropharyngeal cancer among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians; and (4) taking into account impact on oropharyngeal as well as cervical cancer, to evaluate efficacy and cost-effectiveness of targeted extended HPV vaccination to older ages, among our study population.

Methods

Our study design and operation is straightforward, with minimal impost on participants. It involves testing for carriage of hrHPV in the mouth and oropharynx among 1000 Aboriginal South Australians by simple saliva collection and with follow-up at 12 and 24 months, collection of sexual history at baseline, collection of information for estimating health state (quality-of-life) utilities at baseline, genotyping of viruses, predictive outcome and cost-effectiveness modeling, data interpretation and development of vaccination, and follow-up management strategies driven by the Aboriginal community.

Results

Participant recruitment for this study commenced in February 2018 and enrollment is ongoing. The first results are expected to be submitted for publication in 2019.

Conclusions

The project will have a number of important outcomes. Synthesis of evidence will enable generation of estimates of the burden of oropharyngeal cancer among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians and indicate the likely effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of prevention. This will be important for health services planning, and for Aboriginal health worker and patient education. The results will also point to important areas where research efforts should be focused to improve outcomes in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians with oropharyngeal cancer. There will be a strong focus on community engagement and accounting for the preferences of individuals and the community in control of HPV-related cancers. The project has international relevance in that it will be the first to systematically evaluate prevention of both cervical and oropharyngeal cancer in a high-risk Indigenous population taking into account all population, testing, and surveillance options.

Registered Report Identifier

RR1-10.2196/10503

Comparison of human papillomavirus genotyping and cytology triage, COMPACT Study: Design, methods and baseline results in 14 642 women

Although cytology‐based screening programs have significantly reduced mortality and morbidity from cervical cancer, the global consensus is that primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for cervical screening increases detection of high‐grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and invasive cancer. However, the optimal triage strategy for HPV‐positive women to avoid over‐referral to colposcopy may be setting specific. As Japan requires data that have been generated domestically to modify screening guidelines, we conducted a 3‐year prospective study, COMparison of HPV genotyping And Cytology Triage (COMPACT), to evaluate the potential role of HPV16/18 partial genotyping and cytology for primary HPV screening. In total, 14 642 women aged 20 to 69 years undergoing routine screening at 3 centers in Hokkaido were enrolled. Conventional cytology and HPV testing were carried out. Women with abnormal cytology or HPV16/18 positivity underwent colposcopy. Those with 12 other high‐risk (hr) HPV types underwent repeat cytology after 6 months. Primary study endpoints were detection of high‐grade cervical disease defined as CIN2/CIN3 or greater as determined by consensus pathology. Prevalence of cytological abnormalities was 2.4%. hrHPV, HPV 16, and HPV 18 were detected in 4.6%, 0.9%, and 0.3% of women, respectively. HPV16/18 were detected in all (8/8) invasive cervical cancers and in all (2/2) adenocarcinomas in situ. Both cytological abnormalities and hrHPV positivity declined with increasing age. This is the first Japanese study to investigate the role of partial genotyping and cytology in an HPV‐based screening program. Results should help policy‐makers develop guidelines for future cervical screening programs and management of cervical abnormalities based on HPV genotype.

Human papillomavirus vaccination and the role of herd effects in future cancer control planning: a review

INTRODUCTION

Vaccine herd effects are the indirect protection that vaccinated persons provide to those who remain susceptible to infection, due to the reduced transmission of infections. Herd effects have been an important part of the discourse on how to best implement human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines and prevent HPV-related diseases.

AREAS COVERED

In this paper, we review the theory of HPV vaccine herd effects derived from mathematical models, give an account of observed HPV vaccine herd effects worldwide, and examine the implications of vaccine herd effects for future cervical cancer screening efforts.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

HPV vaccine herd effects improve the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating preadolescent girls, but contribute to making gender-neutral vaccination less economically efficient. Vaccination coverage and sexual mixing patterns by age are strong determinants of herd effects. Many countries worldwide are starting to observe reductions in HPV-related outcomes likely attributable to herd effects, most notably declining anogenital warts in young men, and declining HPV-16/18 infection prevalence in young unvaccinated women. Policy makers making recommendations for cervical cancer screening will have to consider HPV vaccination coverage and herd effects, as these will affect the positive predictive value of screening and the risk of cervical cancer in unvaccinated women.

What cervical screening is appropriate for women who have been vaccinated against high risk HPV? A simulation study

Women vaccinated against HPV16/18 are approaching the age for cervical screening; however, an updated screening algorithm has not been agreed. We use a microsimulation model calibrated to real published data to determine the appropriate screening intensity for vaccinated women. Natural histories in the absence of vaccination were simulated for 300,000 women using 10,000 sets of transition probabilities. Vaccination with (i) 100% efficacy against HPV16/18, (ii) 15% cross-protection, (iii) 22% cross-protection, (iv) waning vaccine efficacy and (v) 100% efficacy against HPV16/18/31/33/45/52/58 was added, as were a range of screening scenarios appropriate to the UK. To benchmark cost-benefits of screening for vaccinated women, we evaluated the proportion of cancers prevented per additional screen (incremental benefit) of current cytology and likely HPV screening scenarios in unvaccinated women. Slightly more cancers are prevented through vaccination with no screening (70.3%, 95% CR: 65.1-75.5) than realistic compliance to the current UK screening programme in the absence of vaccination (64.3%, 95% CR: 61.3-66.8). In unvaccinated women, when switching to HPV primary testing, there is no loss in effectiveness when doubling the screening interval. Benchmarking supports screening scenarios with incremental benefits of ≥2.0%, and rejects scenarios with incremental benefits ≤0.9%. In HPV16/18-vaccinated women, the incremental benefit of offering a third lifetime screen was at most 3.3% (95% CR: 2.2-4.5), with an incremental benefit of 1.3% (-0.3-2.8) for a fourth screen. For HPV16/18/31/33/45/52/58-vaccinated women, two lifetime screens are supported. It is important to know women's vaccination status; in these simulations, HPV16/18-vaccinated women require three lifetime screens, HPV16/18/31/33/45/52/58-vaccinated women require two lifetime screens, yet unvaccinated women require seven lifetime screens.

Protocol for Compass: a randomised controlled trial of primary HPV testing versus cytology screening for cervical cancer in HPV-unvaccinated and vaccinated women aged 25-69 years living in Australia

INTRODUCTION

Australia's National Cervical Screening Program (NCSP) currently recommends 2-year cytology in women aged 18-69 years. Following a review of the NCSP prompted by the implementation of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, the programme will transition in 2017 to 5-year primary HPV screening with partial genotyping for HPV16/18 in women aged 25-74 years. Compass is a sentinel experience for the renewed NCSP and the first prospectively randomised trial of primary HPV screening compared with cytology to be conducted in a population with high uptake of HPV vaccination. This protocol describes the main Compass trial, which commenced after a pilot study of ~5000 women completed recruitment.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Women aged 25-69 years will be randomised at a 1:2 allocation to (1) 2.5-year image-read, liquid-based cytology (LBC) screening with HPV triage of low-grade smears (active control Arm A) or (2) 5-year HPV screening with partial genotyping and referral of HPV16/18-positive women to colposcopy (intervention Arm B). Women in Arm B positive for other oncogenic HPV (not 16/18) will undergo secondary randomisation at a 1:1 allocation to either LBC or dual-stained (p16^INK4a and Ki-67) cytology testing (dual-stained cytology). The primary outcome is cumulative CIN3+ (CIN3, adenocarcinoma in situ and invasive cervical cancer) following a 5-year HPV exit testing round in both arms, in women randomised to the HPV arm versus women randomised to the LBC arm, based on an intention-to-treat analysis. The primary outcome will first be tested for non-inferiority and if declared, the primary outcome will be tested for superiority. A total of 36 300 women in birth cohorts not offered vaccination and 84 700 women in cohorts offered vaccination will be recruited, bringing the final sample size to 121 000. The trial is powered for the secondary outcome of cumulative CIN3+ in screen-negative women, adjusted for censoring after CIN2+ treatment and hysterectomy.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Approved by the Bellberry Ethics Committee (2014-11-592). Findings will be reported in peer-reviewed journals and presented at scientific meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02328872; Pre-results.

Adapting cervical cancer screening for women vaccinated against human papillomavirus infections: The value of stratifying guidelines

BACKGROUND

Several countries have implemented vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) for adolescent girls and must decide whether and how to adapt cervical cancer (CC) screening for these low-risk women. We aimed to identify the optimal screening strategies for women vaccinated against HPV infections and quantify the amount that could be spent to identify vaccination status among women and stratify CC screening guidelines accordingly.

METHODS

We used a mathematical model reflecting HPV-induced CC in Norway to project the long-term health benefits, resources and costs associated with 74 candidate-screening strategies that varied by screening test, start age and frequency. Strategies were considered separately for women vaccinated with the bivalent/quadrivalent (2/4vHPV) and nonavalent (9vHPV) vaccines. We used a cost-effectiveness framework (i.e. incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and net monetary benefit) and a commonly-cited Norwegian willingness-to-pay threshold of €75,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained.

RESULTS

The most cost-effective screening strategy for 9vHPV- and 2/4vHPV-vaccinated women involved HPV testing once and twice per lifetime, respectively. The value of stratifying guidelines by vaccination status was €599 (2/4vHPV) and €725 (9vHPV) per vaccinated woman. Consequently, for the first birth cohort of ∼22,000 women who were vaccinated in adolescence in Norway, between €10.5-13.2 million over their lifetime could be spent on identifying individual vaccination status and stratify screening while remaining cost-effective.

CONCLUSION

Less intensive strategies are required for CC screening to remain cost-effective in HPV-vaccinated women. Moreover, screening can remain cost-effective even if large investments are made to identify individual vaccination status and stratify screening guidelines accordingly.

Prediction of cervical cancer incidence in England, UK, up to 2040, under four scenarios: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

In the next 25 years, the epidemiology of cervical cancer in England, UK, will change: human papillomavirus (HPV) screening will be the primary test for cervical cancer. Additionally, the proportion of women screened regularly is decreasing and women who received the HPV vaccine are due to attend screening for the first time. Therefore, we aimed to estimate how vaccination against HPV, changes to the screening test, and falling screening coverage will affect cervical cancer incidence in England up to 2040.

METHODS

We did a data modelling study that combined results from population modelling of incidence trends, observable data from the individual level with use of a generalised linear model, and microsimulation of unobservable disease states. We estimated age-specific absolute risks of cervical cancer in the absence of screening (derived from individual level data). We used an age period cohort model to estimate birth cohort effects. We multiplied the absolute risks by the age cohort effects to provide absolute risks of cervical cancer for unscreened women in different birth cohorts. We obtained relative risks (RRs) of cervical cancer by screening history (never screened, regularly screened, or lapsed attender) using data from a population-based case-control study for unvaccinated women, and using a microsimulation model for vaccinated women. RRs of primary HPV screening were relative to cytology. We used the proportion of women in each 5-year age group (25-29 years to 75-79 years) and 5-year period (2016-20 to 2036-40) who have a combination of screening and vaccination history, and weighted to estimate the population incidence. The primary outcome was the number of cases and rates per 100 000 women under four scenarios: no changes to current screening coverage or vaccine uptake and HPV primary testing from 2019 (status quo), changing the year in which HPV primary testing is introduced, introduction of the nine-valent vaccine, and changes to cervical screening coverage.

FINDINGS

The status quo scenario estimated that the peak age of cancer diagnosis will shift from the ages of 25-29 years in 2011-15 to 55-59 years in 2036-40. Unvaccinated women born between 1975 and 1990 were predicted to have a relatively high risk of cervical cancer throughout their lives. Introduction of primary HPV screening from 2019 could reduce age-standardised rates of cervical cancer at ages 25-64 years by 19%, from 15·1 in 2016 to 12·2 per 100 000 women as soon as 2028. Vaccination against HPV types 16 and 18 (HPV 16/18) could see cervical cancer rates in women aged 25-29 years decrease by 55% (from 20·9 in 2011-15 to 9·5 per 100 000 women by 2036-40), and introduction of nine-valent vaccination from 2019 compared with continuing vaccination against HPV 16/18 will reduce rates by a further 36% (from 9·5 to 6·1 per 100 000 women) by 2036-40. Women born before 1991 will not benefit directly from vaccination; therefore, despite vaccination and primary HPV screening with current screening coverage, European age-standardised rates of cervical cancer at ages 25-79 years will decrease by only 10% (from 12·8 in 2011-15 to 11·5 per 100 000 women in 2036-40). If screening coverage fell to 50%, European age-standardised rates could increase by 27% (from 12·8 to 16·3 per 100 000 by 2036-40).

INTERPRETATION

Going forward, focus should be placed on scenarios that offer less intensive screening for vaccinated women and more on increasing coverage and incorporation of new technologies to enhance current cervical screening among unvaccinated women.

FUNDING

Jo's Cervical Cancer Trust and Cancer Research UK.

Medical costs for the treatment of cervical cancer at central hospitals in Vietnam

Cervical cancer remains the second most common cancer amongst female aged 15 to 44 years old in Vietnam. We estimated medical costs for the treatment of cervical cancer patients. We employed the standard costing approach and health care provider perspective. We first computed the unit cost of 22 medical services related to cervical cancer treatments and then, based on standard cervical cancer treatment protocols, we estimated the cost of nine treatment scenarios for cervical cancer patients. We found that the medical costs for treatment of cervical cancers at central hospitals in Vietnam increased as the cancer progresses into later stages.

How will transitioning from cytology to HPV testing change the balance between the benefits and harms of cervical cancer screening? Estimates of the impact on cervical cancer, treatment rates and adverse obstetric outcomes in Australia, a high vaccination coverage country

Primary HPV screening enables earlier diagnosis of cervical lesions compared to cytology, however, its effect on the risk of treatment and adverse obstetric outcomes has not been extensively investigated. We estimated the cumulative lifetime risk (CLR) of cervical cancer and excisional treatment, and change in adverse obstetric outcomes in HPV unvaccinated women and cohorts offered vaccination (>70% coverage in 12-13 years) for the Australian cervical screening program. Two-yearly cytology screening (ages 18-69 years) was compared to 5-yearly primary HPV screening with partial genotyping for HPV16/18 (ages 25-74 years). A dynamic model of HPV transmission, vaccination, cervical screening and treatment for precancerous lesions was coupled with an individual-based simulation of obstetric complications. For cytology screening, the CLR of cervical cancer diagnosis, death and treatment was estimated to be 0.649%, 0.198% and 13.4% without vaccination and 0.182%, 0.056% and 6.8%, in vaccinated women, respectively. For HPV screening, relative reductions of 33% and 22% in cancer risk for unvaccinated and vaccinated women are predicted, respectively, compared to cytology. Without the implementation of vaccination, a 4% increase in treatment risk for HPV versus cytology screening would have been expected, implying a possible increase in pre-term delivery (PTD) and low birth weight (LBW) events of 19 to 35 and 14 to 37, respectively, per 100,000 unvaccinated women. However, in vaccinated women, treatment risk will decrease by 13%, potentially leading to 4 to 41 fewer PTD events and from 2 more to 52 fewer LBW events per 100,000 vaccinated women. In unvaccinated women in cohorts offered vaccination as 12-13 year olds, no change to lifetime treatment risk is expected with HPV screening. In unvaccinated women in cohorts offered vaccination as 12-13 year olds, no change to lifetime treatment risk is expected with HPV screening. HPV screening starting at age 25 in populations with high vaccination coverage, is therefore expected to both improve the benefits (further decrease risk of cervical cancer) and reduce the harms (reduce treatments and possible obstetric complications) associated with cervical cancer screening.

Human papillomavirus first and second generation vaccines-current status and future directions

It has been more than 10 years that the first prophylactic papillomavirus vaccine became available, although distribution has been mainly limited to the more affluent countries. The first two vaccines have been a great success, hundreds of millions of women and a much smaller number of men have been vaccinated ever since. In a few countries with high vaccination coverage, in particular Australia but also parts of Great Britain and others, clinical impact of vaccination programs is already visible and there are indications for herd immunity as well. Vaccine efficacy is higher than originally estimated and the vaccines have an excellent safety profile. Gardasil9 is a second generation HPV virus-like particle vaccine that was licensed in 2015 and there are more to come in the near future. Currently, burning questions in respect to HPV vaccination are the duration of protection - especially in regard to cross-protection - reduction of the three-dose regimen and its impact on cross-protection; and duration of response, as well as protection against oropharyngeal HPV infections. Furthermore, researchers are seeking to overcome limitations of the VLP vaccines, namely low thermal stability, cost, invasive administration, limited coverage of non-vaccine HPV types, and lack of therapeutic efficacy. In this review we summarize the current status of licensed VLP vaccines and address questions related to second and third generation HPV vaccines.

Systematic review of cost-effectiveness analyses for combinations of prevention strategies against human papillomavirus (HPV) infection: a general trend

BACKGROUND

Due to the arrival of multi-valent HPV vaccines, it is more and more important to have a better understanding of the relationship between vaccination and screening programmes. This review aimed to: (1) collect published evidence on the cost-effectiveness profile of different HPV prevention strategies and, in particular, those combining vaccination with changes in screening practices; (2) explore the cost-effectiveness of alternative preventive strategies based on screening and vaccination.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted in order to identify the relevant studies regarding the cost-effectiveness of prevention strategies against HPV infection. Analysis comparing the modelling approaches between studies was made along with an assessment of the magnitude of impact of several factors on the cost-effectiveness of different screening strategies.

RESULTS

A total of 18 papers were quantitatively summarised within the narrative. A high degree of heterogeneity was found in terms of how HPV prevention strategies have been assessed in terms of their economic and epidemiological impact, with variation in screening practice and valence of HPV vaccination found to have large implications in terms of cost-effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

This review demonstrated synergies between screening and vaccination. New prevention strategies involving multi-valence vaccination, HPV DNA test screening, delayed commencement and frequency of screening could be implemented in the future. Strategies implemented in the future should be chosen with care, and informed knowledge of the potential impact of all possible prevention strategies. Highlighted in this review is the difficulty in assessing multiple strategies. Appropriate modelling techniques will need to be utilised to assess the most cost-effective strategies.