A review of the use of time-varying covariates in the Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard competing risk regression model

Heart failure and major haemorrhage in people with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is not included in atrial fibrillation (AF) bleeding risk prediction scores, reflecting uncertainty regarding its importance as a risk factor for major haemorrhage. We aimed to report the relative risk of first major haemorrhage in people with HF and AF compared with people with AF without HF ('AF only').

METHODS

English primary care cohort study of 2 178 162 people aged ≥45 years in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink from January 2000 to December 2018, linked to secondary care and mortality databases. We used traditional survival analysis and competing risks methods, accounting for all-cause mortality and anticoagulation.

RESULTS

Over 7.56 years median follow-up, 60 270 people were diagnosed with HF and AF of whom 4996 (8.3%) had a major haemorrhage and 36 170 died (60.0%), compared with 8256 (6.4%) and 34 375 (27.2%), respectively, among 126 251 people with AF only. Less than half those with AF were prescribed an anticoagulant (45.6% from 2014 onwards), although 75.7% were prescribed an antiplatelet or anticoagulant. In a fully adjusted Cox model, the HR for major haemorrhage was higher among people with HF and AF (2.52, 95% CI 2.44 to 2.61) than AF only (1.87, 95% CI 1.82 to 1.92), even in a subgroup analysis of people prescribed anticoagulation. However, in a Fine and Gray competing risk model, the HR of major haemorrhage was similar for people with AF only (1.82, 95% CI 1.77 to 1.87) or HF and AF (1.71, 95% CI 1.66 to 1.78).

CONCLUSIONS

People with HF and AF are at increased risk of major haemorrhage compared with those with AF only and current prediction scores may underestimate the risk of haemorrhage in HF and AF. However, people with HF and AF are more likely to die than have a major haemorrhage and therefore an individual's expected prognosis should be carefully considered when predicting future bleeding risk.

Epidemiology of Diffuse Alveolar Hemorrhage in Pediatric Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Recipients

Diffuse alveolar hemorrhage (DAH) is a life-threatening pulmonary toxicity that can arise after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). Risk factors and outcomes are not well understood owing to a sparsity of cases spread across multiple centers. The objectives of this epidemiologic study were to characterize the incidence, outcomes, transplantation-related risk factors and comorbid critical care diagnoses associated with post-HCT DAH. Retrospective analysis was performed in a multicenter cohort of 6995 patients age ≤21 years who underwent allogeneic HCT between 2008 and 2014 identified through the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research registry and cross-matched with the Virtual Pediatric Systems database to obtain critical care characteristics. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine risk factors for DAH. Logistic regression models were used to determine critical care diagnoses associated with DAH. Survival outcomes were analyzed using both a landmark approach and Cox regression, with DAH as a time-varying covariate. DAH occurred in 81 patients at a median of 54 days post-HCT (interquartile range, 23 to 160 days), with a 1-year post-transplantation cumulative incidence probability of 1.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], .81% to 1.3%) and was noted in 7.6% of all pediatric intensive care unit patients. Risk factors included receipt of transplantation for nonmalignant hematologic disease (reference: malignant hematologic disease; hazard ratio [HR], 1.98; 95% CI, 1.22 to 3.22; P = .006), use of a calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) plus mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) as graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis (referent: CNI plus methotrexate; HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.07 to 3.34; P = .029), and grade III-IV acute GVHD (HR, 2.67; 95% CI, 1.53-4.66; P < .001). Critical care admitted patients with DAH had significantly higher rates of systemic hypertension, pulmonary hypertension, pericardial disease, renal failure, and bacterial/viral/fungal infections (P < .05) than those without DAH. From the time of DAH, median survival was 2.2 months, and 1-year overall survival was 26% (95% CI, 17% to 36%). Among all HCT recipients, the development of DAH when considered was associated with a 7-fold increase in unadjusted all-cause post-HCT mortality (HR, 6.96; 95% CI, 5.42 to 8.94; P < .001). In a landmark analysis of patients alive at 2 months post-HCT, patients who developed DAH had a 1-year overall survival of 33% (95% CI, 18% to 49%), compared to 82% (95% CI, 81% to 83%) for patients without DAH (P < .001). Although DAH is rare, it is associated with high mortality in the post-HCT setting. Our data suggest that clinicians should have a heightened index of suspicion of DAH in patients with pulmonary symptoms in the context of nonmalignant hematologic indication for HCT, use of CNI + MMF as GVHD prophylaxis, and severe acute GVHD. Further investigations and validation of modifiable risk factors are warranted given poor outcomes.

The inverse association between cancer history and incident cognitive impairment: Addressing attrition bias

INTRODUCTION

Cancer is inversely associated with cognitive impairment. Whether this is due to statistical handling of attrition (death and censoring) is unknown.

METHODS

We quantified associations between cancer history and incident cognitive impairment among Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study participants without baseline cognitive impairment or stroke (n = 2604) using multiple competing-risks models and their corresponding estimands: cause-specific, subdistribution, and marginal hazards, plus composite-outcome (cognitive impairment or all-cause mortality) hazards. All-cause mortality was also modeled.

RESULTS

After covariate adjustment (demographics, apolipoprotein E ε4, lifestyle, health conditions), cause-specific and marginal hazard ratios (HRs) were similar to each other (≈ 0.84; P values < 0.05). The subdistribution HR was 0.764 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.645-0.906), and composite-outcome Cox model HR was 1.149 (95% CI = 1.016-1.299). Cancer history was positively associated with all-cause mortality (HR = 1.813; 95% CI = 1.525-2.156).

DISCUSSION

Cause-specific, subdistribution, and marginal hazards models produced inverse associations between cancer and cognitive impairment. Competing risk models answer slightly different questions, and estimand choice influenced findings here.

HIGHLIGHTS

Cancer history is inversely associated with incident cognitive impairment. Findings were robust to handling of competing risks of death. All models also addressed possible informative censoring bias. Cancer history was associated with 16% lower hazard of cognitive impairment. Cancer history was associated with 81% higher all-cause mortality hazard.

Air pollutants and primary liver cancer mortality: a cohort study in crop-burning activities and forest fires area

Introduction

Northern Thailand experiences high levels of air pollution in the dry season due to agricultural waste burning and forest fires. Some air pollutants can enter the bloodstream, and the liver has the role of detoxifying these along with other harmful substances. In this study, we assessed the effects of long-term exposure to air pollutants on liver cancer mortality in this area.

Methods

A cohort of 10,859 primary liver cancer patients diagnosed between 2003 and 2018 and followed up to the end of 2020 were included in the study. Extended time-varying covariates of the annually averaged pollutant concentrations updated each year were utilized. The associations between air pollutants and mortality risk were examined by using a Cox proportional hazard model.

Results

Metastatic cancer stage had the highest adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 3.57 (95% confidence interval (CI):3.23-3.95). Being male (aHR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.04-1.15), over 60 years old (aHR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.11-1.21), having a history of smoking (aHR = 1.16; 95%CI: 1.11-1.22), and being exposed to a time-updated local concentration of PM2.5 of 40 μg/m3 (aHR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.05-1.15) increased the mortality risk.

Conclusion

We found that air pollution is one of several detrimental factors on the mortality risk of liver cancer.

Secondary solid malignancies in long-term survivors after total body irradiation

BACKGROUND

Total body irradiation (TBI)-based allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) is a curative treatment for selected patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Yet, secondary malignancies contribute to long-term morbidity and mortality with TBI potentially influencing these risks.

METHODS

This retrospective study analyzed the cumulative incidences of secondary solid malignancies and precancerous lesions of 89 consecutive AML patients after TBI-based conditioning before 1st allo-HSCT between 2000 and 2016. TBI was performed with an average dose rate of 4 cGy/min and a twice-daily fractionation. Cause-specific hazard models analyzed risk factors for secondary malignancies/precancerous lesions and the competing risks of dying before developing secondary malignancies/precancerous lesions.

RESULTS

The median patient age at TBI was 42.5 years (interquartile range, 32.5-51.2), while the median follow-up was 15.2 years (interquartile range, 13.0-18.2). Most patients received a myeloablative conditioning (MAC) containing 8 Gy (n = 47) and 12 Gy TBI (n = 11). Reduced-intensity regimens (RIC, 4 Gy TBI) were applied in 31 patients. Of note, patients receiving RIC were older than patients receiving MAC. The most common cancer types were non-squamous cell carcinomas (n = 14) after exclusion of a patient diagnosed with sarcoma within less than a year after TBI. The cumulative incidences of secondary malignancies and precancerous lesions were 8% (95%CI, 4-16), 14% (95%CI, 7-23), and 17% (95%CI, 9-27) at 10, 15 and 20 years, while the cumulative incidences of premature deaths were 59% (95%CI, 48-69), 59% (95%CI, 48-69), and 64% (95%CI, 49-76). In multivariate analyses, higher patient age at TBI was associated with lower rates of secondary malignancies/precancerous lesions, while higher patient age translated into a trend towards premature deaths (before patients could develop malignancies). Higher TBI doses, mainly applied in younger patients, translated into lower rates of secondary malignancies/precancerous lesions while lacking associations with mortality. Chronic GVHD requiring systemic immunosuppression was associated with premature deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Although this study indicates an inverse relationship between TBI doses applied and treatment-related malignancies, confounding by competing risks is present. The age dependency may be explained by the fact that older patients had a lower life expectancy independent of malignancies, illustrating the pitfalls of competing risks.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study was retrospectively registered.

Survival outcomes in patients with de novo metastatic Merkel cell carcinoma according to site of metastases

Introduction

Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is a rare and aggressive neuroendocrine malignancy of the skin with a predilection for metastases. This study investigates the clinical outcomes in patients presenting with de novo Stage IV MCC according to the metastatic site(s) at presentation.

Materials and methods

Patients who presented with one or more sites of distant metastatic MCC at initial diagnosis between 2009 and 2023 were identified. The presence or absence of one or more metastases in each organ was categorized for each patient at the time of diagnosis. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Competing risk analysis was used to estimate the cumulative occurrence risk of MCC-specific death. Fisher's exact test was used for response rate analysis. Results were considered statically significant if p < 0.05.

Results

Thirty-four patients presented with de novo distant metastatic MCC. There was no association between the number of metastatic sites at diagnosis and OS (p= 0.58), PFS (p=0.79), or response rates (p=0.53). However, the presence of bone metastases was associated with significantly shorter OS (8.2 versus 25.2 months, HR: 2.4, 95% CI 1.01-5.7, p= 0.04). MCC-specific death in patients with lymph node metastases was significantly lower than in patients without (HR: 0.28, 95% CI: 0.09-0.87, p= 0.013). The presence of bone metastases tended to associate with an increased risk of MCC-specific death, although not statistically significant. The location of metastases was not associated with the response rate to first-line treatment. There was no significant association between site of metastases and PFS.

Conclusion

In this cohort of patients with de novo metastatic MCC, the presence of bone metastases, but not the number of organs involved, was associated with significantly worse OS. The presence of lymph node metastases was associated with lower MCC-specific death. Further research is warranted in larger cohorts to investigate the impact of the location of metastases on clinical outcomes.

Mortality and Function After Widowhood Among Older Adults With Dementia, Cancer, or Organ Failure

Importance

The widowhood effect, in which mortality increases and function decreases in the period following spousal death, may be heightened in older adults with functional impairment and serious illnesses, such as cancer, dementia, or organ failure, who are highly reliant on others, particularly spouses, for support. Yet there are limited data on widowhood among people with these conditions.

Objective

To determine the association of widowhood with function and mortality among older adults with dementia, cancer, or organ failure.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This longitudinal cohort study used population-based, nationally representative data from the Health and Retirement Study database linked to Medicare claims from 2008 to 2018. Participants were married or partnered community-dwelling adults aged 65 years and older with and without cancer, organ failure, or dementia and functional impairment (function score <9 of 11 points), matched on widowhood event and with follow-up until death or disenrollment. Analyses were conducted from September 2021 to May 2024.

Exposure

Widowhood.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Function score (range 0-11 points; 1 point for independence with each activity of daily living [ADL] or instrumental activity of daily living [IADL]; higher score indicates better function) and 1-year mortality.

Results

Among 13 824 participants (mean [SD] age, 70.1 [5.5] years; 6416 [46.4%] female; mean [SD] baseline function score, 10.2 [1.6] points; 1-year mortality: 0.4%) included, 5732 experienced widowhood. There were 319 matched pairs of people with dementia, 1738 matched pairs without dementia, 95 matched pairs with cancer, 2637 matched pairs without cancer, 85 matched pairs with organ failure, and 2705 matched pairs without organ failure. Compared with participants without these illnesses, widowhood was associated with a decline in function immediately following widowhood for people with cancer (change, -1.17 [95% CI, -2.10 to -0.23] points) or dementia (change, -1.00 [95% CI, -1.52 to -0.48] points) but not organ failure (change, -0.84 [95% CI, -1.69 to 0.00] points). Widowhood was also associated with increased 1-year mortality among people with cancer (hazard ratio [HR], 1.08 [95% CI, 1.04 to 1.13]) or dementia (HR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.02 to 1.27]) but not organ failure (HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.98 to 1.06]).

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study found that widowhood was associated with increased functional decline and increased mortality in older adults with functional impairment and dementia or cancer. These findings suggest that persons with these conditions with high caregiver burden may experience a greater widowhood effect.

Asbestos exposure and asbestosis mortality in Italian cement-asbestos cohorts: Dose-response relationship and the role of competing death causes

OBJECTIVES

In Italy, asbestos was used intensively until its ban in 1992, which was extended for asbestos cement factories until 1994. The aim of this study was to evaluate the dose-response between asbestos exposure and asbestosis mortality across a pool of Italian occupational cohorts, taking into account the presence of competing risks.

METHODS

Cohorts were followed for vital status and the cause of death was ascertained by a linkage with mortality registers. Cause-specific (CS) Cox-regression models were used to evaluate the dose-exposure relationship between asbestosis mortality and the time-dependent cumulative exposure index (CEI) to asbestos. Fine and Gray regression models were computed to assess the effect of competing risks of death.

RESULTS

The cohort included 12,963 asbestos cement workers. During the follow-up period (1960-2012), of a total of 6961 deaths, we observed 416 deaths attributed to asbestosis, 879 to lung cancer, 400 to primary pleural cancer, 135 to peritoneal cancer, and 1825 to diseases of the circulatory system. The CS model showed a strong association between CEI and asbestosis mortality. Dose-response models estimated an increasing trend in mortality even below a CEI of 25 ff/mL-years. Lung cancer and circulatory diseases were the main competing causes of death.

CONCLUSIONS

Asbestos exposure among Italian asbestos-cement workers has led to a very high number of deaths from asbestosis and asbestos-related diseases. The increasing risk trend associated with excess deaths, even at low exposure levels, suggests that the proposed limit values would not have been adequate to prevent disability and mortality from asbestosis.

Autoimmune diseases in primary sclerosing cholangitis and their first-degree relatives

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is linked to inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, there is limited overlap between IBD and PSC risk genes, but a stronger association between PSC and other autoimmune conditions. We aimed to assess the coexistence and familial association of autoimmune disorders in PSC, and the influence of autoimmune comorbidity on severe outcomes.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

In a matched cohort study, 1378 individuals with PSC and 13,549 general population comparators and their first-degree relatives were evaluated. National registries provided data on diagnoses and outcomes (liver transplantation, hepatobiliary cancer, and liver-related death). The OR of autoimmune disease was estimated by logistic regression. The Fine and Gray competing risk regression estimated HRs for severe outcomes. The prevalence of non-IBD, non-autoimmune hepatitis, and autoimmune disease was 18% in PSC and 11% in comparators, OR: 1.77 (95% CI: 1.53-2.05). Highest odds were seen for celiac disease [OR: 4.36 (95% CI: 2.44-7.49)], sarcoidosis [OR: 2.74 (95% CI: 1.29-5.33)], diabetes type 1 [OR: 2.91 (95% CI: 2.05-4.05)], and autoimmune skin disease [OR: 2.15 (95% CI: 1.52-2.96)]. First-degree relatives of individuals with PSC had higher odds of developing IBD, autoimmune hepatitis, and any autoimmune disease than relatives of the comparators [OR: 3.25 (95% CI: 2.68-3.91); OR: 5.94 (95% CI: 2.82-12.02); OR: 1.34 (95% CI: 1.19-1.50)]. Autoimmune comorbidity in PSC was not associated with poorer outcomes [HR: 0.96 (95% CI: 0.71-1.28)].

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with PSC and their first-degree relatives had higher odds of autoimmune disease compared to matched comparators. This finding provides validation for prior genetic discoveries at a phenotypic level. Autoimmune comorbidity did not impact severe outcomes.

Relationship between continuity of primary care and hospitalisation for patients with COPD: population-based cohort study from South Korea

OBJECTIVES

The existing evidence for the impacts of continuity of care (COC) in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is low to moderate. This study aimed to investigate the associations between relational COC within primary care and COPD-related hospitalisations using a robust methodology.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

SETTING

National Health Insurance Service database, South Korea.

PARTICIPANTS

92 977 adults (≥40 years) with COPD newly diagnosed between 2015 and 2016 were included. The propensity score (PS) matching approach was used. PSs were calculated from a multivariable logistic regression that included eight baseline characteristics.

EXPOSURE

COC within primary care.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the incidence of COPD-related hospitalisations. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs.

RESULTS

Out of 92 977 patients, 66 677 of whom were cared for continuously by primary doctors (the continuity group), while 26 300 were not (the non-continuity group). During a 4-year follow-up period, 2094 patients (2.25%) were hospitalised; 874 (1.31%) from the continuity group and 1220 (4.64%) from the non-continuity group. After adjusting for confounding covariates, patients in the non-continuity group exhibited a significantly higher risk of hospital admission (adjusted HR (aHR) 2.43 (95% CI 2.22 to 2.66)). This risk was marginally reduced to 2.21 (95% CI 1.99 to 2.46) after PS matching. The risk of emergency department (ED) visits, systemic corticosteroid use and costs were higher for patients in the non-continuity group (aHR 2.32 (95% CI 2.04 to 2.63), adjusted OR 1.25 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.31) and expβ=1.89 (95% CI 1.82 to 1.97), respectively). These findings remained consistent across the PS-matched cohort, as well as in the sensitivity and subgroup analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with COPD aged over 40, increased continuity of primary care was found to be associated with less hospitalisation, fewer ED visits and lower healthcare expenditure.

Contributing factors to hypophosphatemia development in critically Ill ventilated patients: a retrospective cohort study

Hypophosphatemia (serum phosphate < 2.5 mg/dL) is a major concern when initiating nutritional support. We evaluated which factors contribute to hypophosphatemia development in critically ill patients, as well as the association between hypophosphatemia and mortality. A retrospective cohort study of patients who were ventilated for at least 2 days in a 16-bed mixed ICU. Data collected includes demographics, Acute Physiology & Chronic Health Evaluation 2 (APACHE2) admission score, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score at 24 h (SOFA24), hourly energy delivery, plasma phosphate levels during the first 2 weeks of admission, ICU length of stay (LOS), length of ventilation (LOV), and mortality (ICU and 90 days). For the hypophosphatemia development model, we considered mortality as a competing risk. For mortality analysis, we used the Cox proportional hazards model considering hypophosphatemia development as a time-varying covariate. 462 patients were used in the analysis. 59.52% of the patients developed hypophosphatemia. Several factors were associated with a decreased risk of hypophosphatemia: age, BMI, pre-admission diabetes diagnosis, APACHE2, SOFA24, first kidney SOFA score, hospital admission time before ICU admission, and admission after liver transplantation. Admission due to trauma was associated with an increased risk of hypophosphatemia. Survival analysis with hypophosphatemia as a time-varying covariate showed a protective effect of hypophosphatemia from mortality (HR 0.447, 95% CI 0.281, 0.712). Age, APACHE2, and SOFA24 score were found to be significantly associated with ICU mortality. Fasting duration in the ICU before nutritional support initiation was not found to be significantly associated with hypophosphatemia. We examined several fasting intervals (12 h, 24 h, 36 h, 48 h, 60 h, 72 h). In each fast interval, we compared the prevalence of hypophosphatemia among patients who fasted the specified length of time, with those who did not fast for the same length of time. In each fasting interval, hypophosphatemia prevalence was lower in the fasting group compared to the non-fasting group. However, this difference was insignificant. BMI, APACHE2, and hospital LOS before ICU admission were inversely associated with hypophosphatemia development. Fasting for up to 72 h in the ICU before starting nutritional support did not affect hypophosphatemia occurrence. Hypophosphatemia was associated with lower mortality.

Geriatric conditions and healthcare utilization among older adults living in subsidized housing

BACKGROUND

Nearly 2.9 million older Americans with lower incomes live in subsidized housing. While regional and single-site studies show that this group has higher rates of healthcare utilization compared to older adults in the general community, little is known about healthcare utilization nationally nor associated risk factors.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥65 enrolled in the National Health and Aging Trends Study in 2011, linked to Medicare claims data, including individuals living in subsidized housing and the general community. Participants were followed annually through 2020. Outcomes were hospitalization, short-term skilled nursing facility (SNF) utilization, long-term care utilization, and death. Fine-Gray competing risks regression analysis was used to assess the association of subsidized housing residence with hospitalization and nursing facility utilization, and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to assess the association with death.

RESULTS

Among 6294 participants (3600 women, 2694 men; mean age, 75.5 years [SD, 7.0]), 295 lived in subsidized housing at baseline and 5999 in the general community. Compared to older adults in the general community, those in subsidized housing had a higher adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR] of hospitalization (sHR 1.21; 95% CI, 1.03-1.43), short-term SNF utilization (sHR 1.49; 95% CI, 1.15-1.92), and long-term care utilization (sHR 2.72; 95% CI, 1.67-4.43), but similar hazard of death (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.69-1.08). Individuals with functional impairment had a higher adjusted subdistribution hazard of hospitalization and short-term SNF utilization and individuals with dementia and functional impairment had a higher hazard of long-term care utilization.

CONCLUSIONS

Older adults living in subsidized housing have higher hazards of hospitalization and nursing facility utilization compared to those in the general community. Housing-based interventions to optimize aging in place and mitigate risk of nursing facility utilization should consider risk factors including functional impairment and dementia.

Development and validation of a patient-level model to predict dementia across a network of observational databases

BACKGROUND

A prediction model can be a useful tool to quantify the risk of a patient developing dementia in the next years and take risk-factor-targeted intervention. Numerous dementia prediction models have been developed, but few have been externally validated, likely limiting their clinical uptake. In our previous work, we had limited success in externally validating some of these existing models due to inadequate reporting. As a result, we are compelled to develop and externally validate novel models to predict dementia in the general population across a network of observational databases. We assess regularization methods to obtain parsimonious models that are of lower complexity and easier to implement.

METHODS

Logistic regression models were developed across a network of five observational databases with electronic health records (EHRs) and claims data to predict 5-year dementia risk in persons aged 55-84. The regularization methods L1 and Broken Adaptive Ridge (BAR) as well as three candidate predictor sets to optimize prediction performance were assessed. The predictor sets include a baseline set using only age and sex, a full set including all available candidate predictors, and a phenotype set which includes a limited number of clinically relevant predictors.

RESULTS

BAR can be used for variable selection, outperforming L1 when a parsimonious model is desired. Adding candidate predictors for disease diagnosis and drug exposure generally improves the performance of baseline models using only age and sex. While a model trained on German EHR data saw an increase in AUROC from 0.74 to 0.83 with additional predictors, a model trained on US EHR data showed only minimal improvement from 0.79 to 0.81 AUROC. Nevertheless, the latter model developed using BAR regularization on the clinically relevant predictor set was ultimately chosen as best performing model as it demonstrated more consistent external validation performance and improved calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and externally validated patient-level models to predict dementia. Our results show that although dementia prediction is highly driven by demographic age, adding predictors based on condition diagnoses and drug exposures further improves prediction performance. BAR regularization outperforms L1 regularization to yield the most parsimonious yet still well-performing prediction model for dementia.

Antihypertensive medication classes and risk of incident dementia in primary care patients: a longitudinal cohort study in the Netherlands

Background

Hypertension is a modifiable risk factor for dementia affecting over 70% of individuals older than 60. Lowering dementia risk through preferential treatment with antihypertensive medication (AHM) classes that are otherwise equivalent in indication could offer a cost-effective, safe, and accessible approach to reducing dementia incidence globally. Certain AHM-classes have been associated with lower dementia risk, potentially attributable to angiotensin-II-receptor (Ang-II) stimulating properties. Previous study results have been inconclusive, possibly due to heterogeneous methodology and limited power. We aimed to comprehensively investigate associations between AHM (sub-)classes and dementia risk using large-scale continuous, real-world prescription and outcome data from primary care.

Methods

We used data from three Dutch General Practice Registration Networks. Primary endpoints were clinical diagnosis of incident all-cause dementia and mortality. Using Cox regression analysis with time-dependent covariates, we compared the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) to angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), beta blockers, calcium channel blockers (CCBs), and diuretics; and Ang-II-stimulating- to Ang-II-inhibiting AHM.

Findings

Of 133,355 AHM-using participants, 5877 (4.4%) developed dementia, and 14,079 (10.6%) died during a median follow-up of 7.6 [interquartile range = 4.1-11.0] years. Compared to ACEi, ARBs [HR = 0.86 (95% CI = 0.80-0.92)], beta blockers [HR = 0.81 (95% CI = 0.75-0.87)], CCBs [HR = 0.77 (95% CI = 0.71-0.84)], and diuretics [HR = 0.65 (95% CI = 0.61-0.70)] were associated with significantly lower dementia risks. Regarding competing risk of death, beta blockers [HR = 1.21 (95% CI = 1.15-1.27)] and diuretics [HR = 1.69 (95% CI = 1.60-1.78)] were associated with higher, CCBs with similar, and ARBs with lower [HR = 0.83 (95% CI = 0.80-0.87)] mortality risk. Dementia [HR = 0.88 (95% CI = 0.82-0.95)] and mortality risk [HR = 0.86 (95% CI = 0.82-0.91)] were lower for Ang-II-stimulating versus Ang-II-inhibiting AHM. There were no interactions with sex, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and number of AHM used.

Interpretation

Among patients receiving AHM, ARBs, CCBs, and Ang-II-stimulating AHM were associated with lower dementia risk, without excess mortality explaining these results. Extensive subgroup and sensitivity analyses suggested that confounding by indication did not importantly influence our findings. Dementia risk may be influenced by AHM-classes' angiotensin-II-receptor stimulating properties. An RCT comparing BP treatment with different AHM classes with dementia as outcome is warranted.

Funding

Netherlands Organisation for Health, Research and Development (ZonMw); Stoffels-Hornstra Foundation.

A competing risk survival analysis of the impacts of team formation on goals in professional football

Introduction

This study investigated the influence of team formation on goal-scoring efficiency through analysing the time required for a goal to be scored in elite football matches.

Method

The analysis was conducted using a comprehensive open access dataset encompassing eight major football competitions, including prestigious events such as the World Cup and the UEFA Champions League. It notably focused on the competing risks framework and employed the Fine and Gray model to account for the interplay between two competing events: team A scoring and team B scoring.

Results

Through analysis of Team A's goal occurrences, we assessed the offensive capabilities of its formation and the defensive effectiveness of Team B's composition in relation to the time it took for Team A to score a goal. Findings revealed that teams employing the 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 formations outperformed other formations (3-4-3, 3-5-2, 4-4-2, 4-5-1, 5-3-2, 5-4-1) regarding goal-scoring efficiency.

Discussion

By shedding light on the impact of team formation on goal scoring, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of some of the successful strategic aspects of elite football.

The Dynamic Nature of the Socioeconomic Determinants of Cardiovascular Health: A Narrative Review

Despite decades of social epidemiologic research, health inequities remain pervasive and ubiquitous in Canada and elsewhere. One reason may be our use of socioeconomic measurement, which has often relied on single point-in-time exposures. To explore the extent to which researchers have incorporated dynamic socioeconomic measurement into cardiovascular health outcome evaluations, we performed a narrative review. We estimated the prevalence of socioeconomic longitudinal cardiovascular research studies that identified socioeconomic exposures at 2 or more points in time between the years of 2019 and 2023. We defined cardiovascular outcome studies as those that examined coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, heart failure, cardiac arrhythmias, cardiac death, cardiometabolic factors, transient ischemic attacks, peripheral artery disease, or hypertension. Socioeconomic exposures included individual income, neighbourhood income, intergenerational social mobility, education, occupation, insurance status, and economic security. Seven percent of socioeconomic cardiovascular outcome studies have measured socioeconomic status at 2 or more points in time throughout the follow-up period, hypothesized mechanisms by which dynamic socioeconomic measures affected outcome focused on social mobility, accumulation, and critical period theories. Insights, implications, and future directions are discussed, in which we highlight ways in which postal code data can be better used methodologically as a dynamic socioeconomic measure. Future research must incorporate dynamic socioeconomic measurement to better inform root causes, interventions, and health-system designs if health equity is to be improved.

Patterns of initial distant metastases in 151 patients undergoing surveillance for treated Merkel cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is associated with high rates of recurrence and distant metastatic progression. Current guidelines for surveillance imaging are not evidence based. Better characterization of the pattern of distant metastatic spread will better inform surveillance and facilitate earlier detection of metastases.

OBJECTIVES

This retrospective study aimed to assess potential relationships between primary tumour site and site of initial distant metastasis, time to distant metastasis, overall survival (OS) and MCC-specific death (MSD).

METHODS

Patients with local or regional (Stage I-III) disease who were treated with curative intent and progressed to Stage IV were included in this study (n = 151). Fisher's exact test was used to assess differences in patterns of initial distant metastases based on primary tumour site. Time to initial distant metastasis was calculated from date of MCC diagnosis. OS and MSD were calculated from date of initial distant metastasis to date of death from any or MCC-related causes, respectively.

RESULTS

Of 151 patients included in analysis, 89 (58.9%) had a single initial distant metastatic site, and 62 (41.1%) had multiple sites. Patients with upper limb primary tumours were significantly less likely to develop distant lymph node or liver metastases (p = 0.02 and 0.04, respectively). Median time to distant metastasis was 11 months (IQR 6.7-17.9 months). Median OS was 15.3 months, and was shorter for patients with liver (7.0 months, p = 0.0004) or bone metastases (8.9 months, p < 0.0001). Using skin/soft tissue metastasis as a reference group, patients with multiple metastatic sites had significantly higher hazards of MSD (HR = 3.46 univariate, 3.77 multivariate analysis). Time to distant metastasis, OS and MSD did not differ by viral status.

CONCLUSION

Sites of initial distant metastasis are related to primary tumour sites and survival outcomes. Because patients often have multiple initial metastases, full-body cross-sectional rather than region-specific imaging may facilitate earlier detection of metastatic disease.

A Multinational Cohort Study Examining Sex Differences in Excess Risk of Death With Graft Function After Kidney Transplant

BACKGROUND

Kidney transplant recipients show sex differences in excess overall mortality risk that vary by donor sex and recipient age. However, whether the excess risk of death with graft function (DWGF) differs by recipient sex is unknown.

METHODS

In this study, we combined data from 3 of the largest transplant registries worldwide (Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipient, Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry, and Collaborative Transplant Study) using individual patient data meta-analysis to compare the excess risk of DWGF between male and female recipients of a first deceased donor kidney transplant (1988-2019), conditional on donor sex and recipient age.

RESULTS

Among 463 895 individuals examined, when the donor was male, female recipients aged 0 to 12 y experienced a higher excess risk of DWGF than male recipients (relative excess risk 1.68; 95% confidence interval, 1.24-2.29); there were no significant differences in other age intervals or at any age when the donor was female. There was no statistically significant between-cohort heterogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the lack of sex differences in the excess risk of DWGF (other than in prepubertal recipients of a male donor kidney) and the known greater excess overall mortality risk for female recipients compared with male recipients in the setting of a male donor, future study is required to characterize potential sex-specific causes of death after graft loss.

Higher Risk of Psychiatric Disorders in Children With Febrile Seizures: A Nationwide Cohort Study in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Febrile seizures occur commonly in children aged between six months and six years. A previous Danish study found a positive correlation between febrile seizures and the overall incidence of psychiatric disorders. This population-based nationwide observational study was conducted to investigate the association between febrile seizures and different psychiatric disorders in Taiwan and the associated risk factors.

METHODS

This cohort study used data from the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan-a nationwide claims database covering >99% of the Taiwanese population. The study period was from January 2000 to December 2015; the overall median follow-up time was 11.04 ± 10.95 years. Overall, 2464 children with febrile seizures diagnosed between 2000 and 2015 met the inclusion criteria, and 7392 children without febrile seizures matched by index year, age, and sex were included in the control cohorts. Febrile seizures and psychiatric disorders were measured as the exposure and main outcomes, respectively.

RESULTS

Children with febrile seizures (n = 2463) were at a high risk of psychiatric disorders (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.44 to 7.30; P < 0.001). The risk for anxiety was the highest (adjusted hazard ratio, 21.92; 95% CI, 11.40 to 34.05; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

When treating children with febrile seizures, particular attention should be paid to the symptoms of psychiatric disorders, as early referral may be beneficial for these children.

Association of metabolic health and obesity with coronary heart disease in adult cancer survivors

BACKGROUND

The metabolically healthy obese (MHO) phenotype is associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in the general population. However, association of metabolic health and obesity phenotypes with CHD risk in adult cancer survivors remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the associations between different metabolic health and obesity phenotypes with incident CHD in adult cancer survivors.

METHODS

We used National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) to identify a cohort of 173,951 adult cancer survivors aged more than 20 years free of cardiovascular complications. Metabolically healthy nonobese (MHN), MHO, metabolically unhealthy nonobese (MUN), metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO) phenotypes were created using as at least three out of five metabolic health criteria along with obesity (body mass index ≥ 25.0 kg/m2). We used Cox proportional hazards model to assess CHD risk in each metabolic health and obesity phenotypes.

RESULTS

During 1,376,050 person-years of follow-up, adult cancer survivors with MHO phenotype had a significantly higher risk of CHD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.52; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.41 to 1.65) as compared to those without obesity and metabolic abnormalities. MUN (HR = 1.81; 95% CI: 1.59 to 2.06) and MUO (HR = 1.92; 95% CI: 1.72 to 2.15) phenotypes were also associated with an increased risk of CHD among adult cancer survivors.

CONCLUSIONS

Adult cancer survivors with MHO phenotype had a higher risk of CHD than those who are MHN. Metabolic health status and obesity were jointly associated with CHD risk in adult cancer survivors.

Secondary Bladder Cancer After Prostate Cancer Treatment: An Age-matched Comparison Between Radiation and Surgery

BACKGROUND

Secondary malignancy is a long-term risk of radiation. External beam radiation therapy (EBRT) for prostate cancer treatment has been associated with later development of bladder cancer and worse bladder cancer features.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to provide an updated comparison of the long-term risk of bladder cancer after different localized prostate cancer treatments.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registry, we compared an age-matched subset of patients who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) with those who underwent EBRT, brachytherapy (BT), EBRT + BT, and RP followed by EBRT (RPtoEBRT) between 2000 and 2018. Our final cohort included 261 609 patients with a median follow-up of 11.6 yr.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Our primary outcomes were time to bladder cancer diagnosis, muscle-invasive bladder cancer diagnosis, and bladder cancer death. We used cause-specific hazard models considering death as a competing event. A similar analysis was performed on lung cancer, as a surrogate marker for smoking. We also compared proportions of variant histology, high-grade, and invasive disease among bladder cancers that occurred after radiation versus RP using chi-square testing.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

All radiation groups were associated with bladder cancer diagnosis; hazard ratios (HRs) were 1.72, 1.85, 1.80, and 1.53 for EBRT, BT, EBRT + BT, and RPtoEBRT, respectively, using RP as a referent (all p < 0.001). HRs for bladder cancer death were even higher: 2.39, 2.57, and 3.02 for EBRT, BT, and EBRT + BT, respectively (all p < 0.001), except for RPtoEBRT (HR 1.43, p = 0.28). Lung cancer diagnosis was also associated with radiation but at lower HRs-1.63, 1.32, 1.42, and 1.30 for EBRT, BT, EBRT + BT, and RPtoEBRT, respectively (all p < 0.001). There were a higher proportion of ≥T2, ≥T3, and sarcomatoid variant bladder cancers after radiation (all p < 0.01) CONCLUSIONS: The risk of developing and dying from bladder cancer is increased in patients treated with radiation compared with those treated with RP. The risk was similar for BT and EBRT. Bladder cancers after radiation are more likely to be sarcomatoid variant and present as muscle invasive.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We observed the rates of bladder cancer after patients had undergone surgery or radiation for prostate cancer, and found higher rates of bladder cancer after radiation. We also observed that bladder cancers that occur after radiation tend to be more aggressive.

Permanent Pacemaker Implantation and Long-Term Outcomes of Patients Undergoing Concomitant Mitral and Tricuspid Valve Surgery

BACKGROUND

Tricuspid valve annuloplasty (TA) during mitral valve repair (MVr) is associated with increased risk of permanent pacemaker (PPM) implantation, but the magnitude of risk and long-term clinical consequences have not been firmly established.

OBJECTIVES

This study assesses the incidence rates of PPM implantation after isolated MVr and following MVr with TA as well as the associated long-term clinical consequences of PPM implantation.

METHODS

State-mandated hospital discharge databases of New York and California were queried for patients undergoing MVr (isolated or with concomitant TA) between 2004 and 2019. Patients were stratified by whether or not they received a PPM within 90 days of index surgery. After weighting by propensity score, survival, heart failure hospitalizations (HFHs), endocarditis, stroke, and reoperation were compared between patients with or without PPM.

RESULTS

A total of 32,736 patients underwent isolated MVr (n = 28,003) or MVr + TA (n = 4,733). Annual MVr + TA volumes increased throughout the study period (P < 0.001, trend), and PPM rates decreased (P < 0.001, trend). The incidence of PPM implantation <90 days after surgery was 7.7% for MVr and 14.0% for MVr + TA. In 90-day conditional landmark-weighted analyses, PPMs were associated with reduced long-term survival among MVr (HR: 1.96; 95% CI: 1.75-2.19; P < 0.001) and MVr + TA recipients (HR: 1.65; 95% CI: 1.28-2.14; P < 0.001). In both surgical groups, PPMs were also associated with an increased risk of HFH (HR: 1.56; 95% CI: 1.27-1.90; P < 0.001) and endocarditis (HR: 1.95; 95% CI: 1.52-2.51; P < 0.001), but not with stroke or reoperation.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to isolated MVr, adding TA to MVr was associated with a higher risk of 90-day PPM implantation. In both surgical groups, PPM implantation was associated with an increase in mortality, HFH, and endocarditis.

Flares of acute graft-versus-host disease: a Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium analysis

ABSTRACT

The absence of a standardized definition for graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) flares and data on its clinical course are significant concerns. We retrospectively evaluated 968 patients across 23 Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) transplant centers who achieved complete response (CR) or very good partial response (VGPR) within 4 weeks of treatment. The cumulative incidence of flares within 6 months was 22%, and flares were associated with a higher risk of nonrelapse mortality (NRM; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 4.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.19-7.36; P < .001). Flares were more severe (grades 3/4, 41% vs 16%; P < .001) and had more frequent lower gastrointestinal (LGI) involvement (55% vs 32%; P < .001) than the initial GVHD. At CR/VGPR, elevated MAGIC biomarkers predicted the future occurrence of a flare, along with its severity and LGI involvement. In multivariate analyses, higher Ann Arbor (AA) biomarker scores at CR/VGPR were significant risk factors for flares (AA2 vs AA1: aHR, 1.81 [95% CI, 1.32-2.48; P = .001]; AA3 vs AA1: aHR, 3.14 [95% CI, 1.98-4.98; P < .001]), as were early response to initial treatment (aHR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.21-2.80; P = .004) and HLA-mismatched unrelated donor (aHR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.00-3.02; P = .049). MAGIC biomarkers also stratified the risk of NRM both at CR/VGPR and at the time of flare. We conclude that GVHD flares are common and carry a significant mortality risk. The occurrence of future flares can be predicted by serum biomarkers that may serve to guide adjustment and discontinuation of immunosuppression.

A new clinical and prognostic characterization of the patterns of decompensation of cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The prognostic impact of acute decompensation (AD), i.e. the development of complications that require hospitalization, has recently been assessed. However, complications of cirrhosis do not necessarily require hospitalization and can develop progressively, as in the recently defined non-acute decompensation (NAD). Nevertheless, there is no data regarding the incidence and prognostic impact of NAD. The aim of the study was to evaluate the incidence and the prognostic impact of NAD and AD in outpatients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

A total of 617 outpatients with cirrhosis from two Italian tertiary centers (Padua and Milan) were enrolled from January 2003 to June 2021 and followed prospectively until the end of the study, death or liver transplantation. The complications registered during follow-up were considered as AD if they required hospitalization, or NAD if managed at the outpatient clinic.

RESULTS

During follow-up, 154 patients (25.0% of total patients) developed complications, 69 patients (44.8%) developed NAD and 85 (55.2%) developed AD, while 29 patients with NAD (42.0%) developed a further episode of AD during follow-up. Sixty-month survival was significantly higher in patients with no decompensation than in patients with NAD or AD. On multivariable analysis, AD (hazard ratio [HR] 21.07, p <0.001), NAD (HR 7.13, p <0.001), the etiological cure of cirrhosis (HR 0.38, p <0.001) and model for end-stage liver disease score (HR 1.12, p = 0.003) were found to be independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The first decompensation is non-acute in almost 50% of outpatients, though such events are still associated with decreased survival compared to no decompensation. Patients who develop NAD must be treated with extreme care and monitored closely to prevent the development of AD.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

This multicenter study is the first to investigate the role of non-acute decompensation (NAD) in patients with cirrhosis. In fact, while the unfavorable impact of acute decompensation is well known, there is currently a dearth of evidence on NAD, despite it being a common occurrence in clinical practice. Our data show that almost half of decompensations in patients with cirrhosis can be considered NAD and that such events are associated with a higher risk of mortality than no decompensation. This study has important clinical implications because it highlights the need to carefully consider patients who develop NAD, in order to prevent further decompensation and reduce mortality.

Tunneled Hemodialysis Catheter Tip Design and Risk of Catheter Dysfunction: An Australian Nationwide Cohort Study

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Hemodialysis catheter dysfunction is an important problem for patients with kidney failure. The optimal design of the tunneled catheter tip is unknown. This study evaluated the association of catheter tip design with the duration of catheter function.

STUDY DESIGN

Observational cohort study using data from the nationwide REDUCCTION trial.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

4,722 adults who each received hemodialysis via 1 or more tunneled central venous catheters in 37 Australian nephrology services from December 2016 to March 2020.

EXPOSURE

Design of tunneled hemodialysis catheter tip, classified as symmetrical, step, or split.

OUTCOME

Time to catheter dysfunction requiring removal due to inadequate dialysis blood flow assessed by the treating clinician.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Mixed, 3-level accelerated failure time model, assuming a log-normal survival distribution. Secular trends, the intervention, and baseline differences in service, patient, and catheter factors were included in the adjusted model. In a sensitivity analysis, survival times and proportional hazards were compared among participants' first tunneled catheters.

RESULTS

Among the study group, 355 of 3,871 (9.2%), 262 of 1,888 (13.9%), and 38 of 455 (8.4%) tunneled catheters with symmetrical, step, and split tip designs, respectively, required removal due to dysfunction. Step tip catheters required removal for dysfunction at a rate 53% faster than symmetrical tip catheters (adjusted time ratio, 0.47 [95% CI, 0.33-0.67) and 76% faster than split tip catheters (adjusted time ratio, 0.24 [95% CI, 0.11-0.51) in the adjusted accelerated failure time models. Only symmetrical tip catheters had performance superior to step tip catheters in unadjusted and sensitivity analyses. Split tip catheters were infrequently used and had risks of dysfunction similar to symmetrical tip catheters. The cumulative incidence of other complications requiring catheter removal, routine removal, and death before removal were similar across the 3 tip designs.

LIMITATIONS

Tip design was not randomized.

CONCLUSIONS

Symmetrical and split tip catheters had a lower risk of catheter dysfunction requiring removal than step tip catheters.

FUNDING

Grants from government (Queensland Health, Safer Care Victoria, Medical Research Future Fund, National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia), academic (Monash University), and not-for-profit (ANZDATA Registry, Kidney Health Australia) sources.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registered at ANZCTR with study number ACTRN12616000830493.

PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Central venous catheters are widely used to facilitate vascular access for life-sustaining hemodialysis treatments but often fail due to blood clots or other mechanical problems that impede blood flow. A range of adaptations to the design of tunneled hemodialysis catheters have been developed, but it is unclear which designs have the greatest longevity. We analyzed data from an Australian nationwide cohort of patients who received hemodialysis via a tunneled catheter and found that catheters with a step tip design failed more quickly than those with a symmetrical tip. Split tip catheters performed well but were infrequently used and require further study. Use of symmetrical rather than step tip hemodialysis catheters may reduce mechanical failures and unnecessary procedures for patients.

Long-term use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate increases fracture risk in elderly patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is associated with a reduction in bone mineral density and an increase in bone metabolism biomarkers. However, data on clinical bone fractures remain limited. We evaluated the impact of TDF compared to entecavir on the risk of fracture in elderly patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

METHODS

Patients with CHB aged ≥60 years receiving entecavir or TDF between January 2008 and December 2022 were identified using a territory-wide database in Hong Kong. The risk of incident fracture in entecavir- and TDF-treated patients before and after month 24 were compared after propensity score matching.

RESULTS

A total of 41,531 patients with CHB (mean age 69.8±7.8 years, 61.6% male) receiving entecavir (n = 39,897 [96.1%]) and TDF (n = 1,634 [3.9%]) were analysed. At a median follow-up of 25.3 (9.1-58.5) months, 1,733 (4.2%) patients developed incident fracture. Patients with incident fracture were more likely to have diabetes, hypertension, congestive heart failure, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoporosis, and a history of fracture. Compared with propensity score-matched entecavir-treated patients, the risk of incident fracture in TDF-treated patients was comparable in the first 24 months (weighted subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR] 0.99, 95% CI 0.56-1.73, p = 0.960) but increased after month 24 (weighted sHR 1.80, 95% CI 1.11-2.93, p = 0.019). The 24-, 60-, and 96-month cumulative incidences (95% CI) of fracture in TDF-treated and entecavir-treated patients were 2.3% (1.6%-3.4%) vs. 2.6% (1.9%-3.5%), 6.4% (5.0%-8.2%) vs. 4.7% (3.8%-6.0%), and 10.2% (8.3%-12.6%) vs. 6.8% (5.4%-8.5%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of fracture increased with TDF treatment for ≥24 months in elderly patients with CHB. Selection of nucleos(t)ide analogues should be individualised based on age and comorbidities.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Previous literature suggested that the use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is associated with a decrease in bone mineral density. However, data on the impact of TDF on long-term incident clinical fracture remains scarce. In this real-world territory-wide study of 41,531 treated patients with chronic hepatitis B in Hong Kong, patients who received TDF were at a higher risk of fracture after 2 years of treatment than those who received entecavir. Given the ageing population of patients with chronic hepatitis B and the rising prevalence of comorbidities, our findings support the current treatment guidelines that recommend selecting antiviral treatment based on age and comorbidities.

Delirium and incident dementia in hospital patients in New South Wales, Australia: retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To determine the strength and nature of the association between delirium and incident dementia in a population of older adult patients without dementia at baseline.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using large scale hospital administrative data.

SETTING

Public and private hospitals in New South Wales, Australia between July 2001 and March 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

Data were extracted for 650 590 hospital patients aged ≥65 years. Diagnoses of dementia and delirium were identified from ICD-10 (international classification of diseases, 10th revision) codes. Patients with dementia at baseline were excluded. Delirium-no delirium pairs were identified by matching personal and clinical characteristics, and were followed for more than five years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cox proportional hazards models and Fine-Gray hazard models were used to estimate the associations of delirium with death and incident dementia, respectively. Delirium-outcome dose-response associations were quantified, all analyses were performed in men and women separately, and sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

The study included 55 211 matched pairs (48% men, mean age 83.4 years, standard deviation 6.5 years). Collectively, 58% (n=63 929) of patients died and 17% (n=19 117) had a newly reported dementia diagnosis during 5.25 years of follow-up. Patients with delirium had 39% higher risk of death (hazard ratio 1.39, 95% confidence interval 1.37 to 1.41) and three times higher risk of incident dementia (subdistribution hazard ratio 3.00, 95% confidence interval 2.91 to 3.10) than patients without delirium. The association with dementia was stronger in men (P=0.004). Each additional episode of delirium was associated with a 20% increased risk of dementia (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.20, 95% confidence interval 1.18 to 1.23).

CONCLUSIONS

The study findings suggest delirium was a strong risk factor for death and incident dementia among older adult patients. The data support a causal interpretation of the association between delirium and dementia. The clinical implications of delirium as a potentially modifiable risk factor for dementia are substantial.

Association of Cytomegalovirus (CMV) DNAemia With Long-Term Mortality in a Randomized Trial of Preemptive Therapy and Antiviral Prophylaxis for Prevention of CMV Disease in High-Risk Donor Seropositive, Recipient Seronegative Liver Transplant Recipients

In a post-hoc analysis of the association of CMV DNAemia with long-term mortality in a randomized trial of CMV preemptive therapy vs. antiviral prophylaxis in D+R- liver transplant recipients, post-intervention CMV DNAemia was associated with increased mortality after adjusting for study arm.

Calcium channel blockers and clinical outcomes in patients with continuous-flow left ventricular assist devices

AIMS

Current guidelines suggest calcium channel blockers (CCBs) as the second or third option for blood pressure management in patients with left ventricular assist device (LVAD). However, the clinical outcomes of patients with LVAD who receive CCBs remain unclear. Our study aims to analyse the association of CCBs with clinical outcomes in patients after LVAD implantation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This is a retrospective analysis based on the Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) from 2006 to 2017, and adult patients who were alive with LVAD and CCB treatment information at 6 months after implantation were included. Among 10 717 patients, 1369 received CCBs 6 months after implantation, and there was an increasing trend of CCB use after LVAD. Patients receiving CCB therapy at 6 months had a similar 5 year survival rate to those not receiving CCB [49.6%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 47.5-51.7% vs. 51.1%, 95% CI: 45.3-56.7%]. In both Cox and competing risk regressions after adjusting for confounding factors, CCB treatment at 6 months after implantation was not associated with long-term mortality [hazard ratio (HR): 1.03, 95% CI: 0.91-1.17, P = 0.624 and subdistribution HR (SHR): 1.07, 95% CI: 0.95-1.22, P = 0.260]. Consistently, in time-varying models, CCB treatment was not linked to long-term mortality (HR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.87-1.09, P = 0.682 and SHR: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.94-1.18, P = 0.359). This null association remained in subgroup analysis according to device strategy and propensity-matching analyses. Neurological dysfunction, stroke, bleeding, rehospitalization, and renal dysfunction were more likely to occur among those with CCB when compared with those without CCB treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with LVAD, CCB therapy fails to show benefits in long-term survival and is associated with increased incidences of neurological dysfunction, bleeding, renal dysfunction, and rehospitalization.

Accounting for Competing Events When Evaluating Long-Term Outcomes in Survivors of Critical Illness

The clinical trajectory of survivors of critical illness after hospital discharge can be complex and highly unpredictable. Assessing long-term outcomes after critical illness can be challenging because of possible competing events, such as all-cause death during follow-up (which precludes the occurrence of an event of particular interest). In this perspective, we explore challenges and methodological implications of competing events during the assessment of long-term outcomes in survivors of critical illness. In the absence of competing events, researchers evaluating long-term outcomes commonly use the Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards model to analyze time-to-event (survival) data. However, traditional analytical and modeling techniques can yield biased estimates in the presence of competing events. We present different estimands of interest and the use of different analytical approaches, including changes to the outcome of interest, Fine and Gray regression models, cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models, and generalized methods (such as inverse probability weighting). Finally, we provide code and a simulated dataset to exemplify the application of the different analytical strategies in addition to overall reporting recommendations.

Additive subdistribution hazards regression for competing risks data in case-cohort studies

In survival data analysis, a competing risk is an event whose occurrence precludes or alters the chance of the occurrence of the primary event of interest. In large cohort studies with long-term follow-up, there are often competing risks. Further, if the event of interest is rare in such large studies, the case-cohort study design is widely used to reduce the cost and achieve the same efficiency as a cohort study. The conventional additive hazards modeling for competing risks data in case-cohort studies involves the cause-specific hazard function, under which direct assessment of covariate effects on the cumulative incidence function, or the subdistribution, is not possible. In this paper, we consider an additive hazard model for the subdistribution of a competing risk in case-cohort studies. We propose estimating equations based on inverse probability weighting methods for the estimation of the model parameters. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators are established. The performance of the proposed methods in finite samples is examined through simulation studies and the proposed approach is applied to a case-cohort dataset from the Sister Study.

Dynamic Importance of Genomic and Clinical Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Over the Life Course

Importance

Earlier identification of high coronary artery disease (CAD) risk individuals may enable more effective prevention strategies. However, existing 10-year risk frameworks are ineffective at earlier identification. Understanding the variable importance of genomic and clinical factors across life stages may significantly improve lifelong CAD event prediction.

Objective

To assess the time-varying significance of genomic and clinical risk factors in CAD risk estimation across various age groups.

Design Setting and Participants

A longitudinal study was performed using data from two cohort studies: the Framingham Offspring Study (FOS) with 3,588 participants aged 19-57 years and the UK Biobank (UKB) with 327,837 participants aged 40-70 years. A total of 134,765 and 3,831,734 person-time years were observed in FOS and UKB, respectively.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hazard ratios (HR) for CAD were calculated for polygenic risk scores (PRS) and clinical risk factors at each age of enrollment. The relative importance of PRS and Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) in predicting CAD events was also evaluated by age groups.

Results

The importance of CAD PRS diminished over the life course, with an HR of 3.58 (95% CI 1.39-9.19) at age 19 in FOS and an HR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.48-1.54) by age 70 in UKB. Clinical risk factors exhibited similar age-dependent trends. PRS significantly outperformed PCE in identifying subsequent CAD events in the 40-45-year age group, with 3.2-fold more appropriately identified events. The mean age of CAD events occurred 1.8 years earlier for those at high genomic risk but 9.6 years later for those at high clinical risk (p<0.001). Overall, adding PRS improved the area under the receiving operating curve of the PCE by an average of +5.1% (95% CI 4.9-5.2%) across all age groups; among individuals <55 years, PRS augmented the AUC-ROC of the PCE by 6.5% (95% CI 5.5-7.5%, p<0.001).

Conclusions and Relevance

Genomic and clinical risk factors for CAD display time-varying importance across the lifespan. The study underscores the added value of CAD PRS, particularly among individuals younger than 55 years, for enhancing early risk prediction and prevention strategies.

Etiological cure prevents further decompensation and mortality in patients with cirrhosis with ascites as the single first decompensating event

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Removal/suppression of the primary etiological factor reduces the risk of decompensation and mortality in compensated cirrhosis. However, in decompensated cirrhosis, the impact of etiologic treatment is less predictable. We aimed to evaluate the impact of etiological treatment in patients with cirrhosis who developed ascites as single index decompensating event.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Patients with cirrhosis and ascites as single first decompensation event were included and followed until death, liver transplantation, or Q3/2021. The etiology was considered "cured" (alcohol abstinence, hepatitis C cure, and hepatitis B suppression) versus "controlled" (partial removal of etiologic factors) versus "uncontrolled." A total of 622 patients were included in the study. Etiology was "cured" in 146 patients (24%), "controlled" in 170 (27%), and "uncontrolled" in 306 (49%). During follow-up, 350 patients (56%) developed further decompensation. In multivariable analysis (adjusted for age, sex, varices, etiology, Child-Pugh class, creatinine, sodium, and era of decompensation), etiological cure was independently associated with a lower risk of further decompensation (HR: 0.46; p = 0.001). During follow-up, 250 patients (40.2%) died, while 104 (16.7%) underwent LT. In multivariable analysis, etiological cure was independently associated with a lower mortality risk (HR: 0.35, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with cirrhosis and ascites as single first decompensating event, the cure of liver disease etiology represents a main treatment goal since this translates into considerably lower risks of further decompensation and mortality.

Incidence, clinical presentation, risk factors, outcomes, and biomarkers in de novo late acute GVHD

Late acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is defined as de novo acute GVHD presenting beyond 100 days after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) without manifestations of chronic GVHD. Data are limited regarding its characteristics, clinical course, and risk factors because of underrecognition and changes in classification. We evaluated 3542 consecutive adult recipients of first HCTs at 24 Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) centers between January 2014 and August 2021 to better describe the clinical evolution and outcomes of late acute GVHD. The cumulative incidence of classic acute GVHD that required systemic treatment was 35.2%, and an additional 5.7% of patients required treatment for late acute GVHD. At the onset of symptoms, late acute GVHD was more severe than classic acute GVHD based on both clinical and MAGIC algorithm probability biomarker parameters and showed a lower overall response rate on day 28. Both clinical and biomarker grading at the time of treatment stratified the risk of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) in patients with classic and late acute GVHD, respectively, but long-term NRM and overall survival did not differ between patients with classic and late acute GVHD. Advanced age, female-to-male sex mismatch, and the use of reduced intensity conditioning were associated with the development of late acute GVHD, whereas the use of posttransplant cyclophosphamide-based GVHD prevention was protective mainly because of shifts in GVHD timing. Because overall outcomes were comparable, our findings, although not definitive, suggest that similar treatment strategies, including eligibility for clinical trials, based solely on clinical presentation at onset are appropriate.

New Hypertension After Pregnancy in Patients With Heart Disease

Background After pregnancy, patients with preexisting heart disease are at high risk for cardiovascular complications. The primary objective was to compare the incidence of new hypertension after pregnancy in patients with and without heart disease. Methods and Results This was a retrospective matched-cohort study comparing the incidence of new hypertension after pregnancy in 832 patients who are pregnant with congenital or acquired heart disease to a comparison group of 1664 patients who are pregnant without heart disease; matching was by demographics and baseline risk for hypertension at the time of the index pregnancy. We also examined whether new hypertension was associated with subsequent death or cardiovascular events. The 20-year cumulative incidence of hypertension was 24% in patients with heart disease, compared with 14% in patients without heart disease (hazard ratio [HR], 1.81 [95% CI, 1.44-2.27]). The median follow-up time at hypertension diagnosis in the heart disease group was 8.1 years (interquartile range, 4.2-11.9 years). The elevated rate of new hypertension was observed not only in patients with ischemic heart disease, but also in those with left-sided valve disease, cardiomyopathy, and congenital heart disease. Pregnancy risk prediction methods can further stratify risk of new hypertension. New hypertension was associated with an increased rate of subsequent death or cardiovascular events (HR, 1.54 [95% CI, 1.05-2.25]). Conclusions Patients with heart disease are at higher risk for developing hypertension in the decades after pregnancy when compared with those without heart disease. New hypertension in this young cohort is associated with adverse cardiovascular events highlighting the importance of systematic and lifelong surveillance.

Atrial fibrillation as a contributor to the mortality in patients with dementia: A nationwide cohort study

Background

Knowledge of the risk of death in patients with dementia is essential for planning preventive strategies. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of atrial fibrillation (AF) on death risks and other factors associated with death in patients with dementia and AF.

Methods

We conducted a nationwide cohort study using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. We identified subjects with dementia diagnosed for the first time and AF diagnosed concomitantly between 2013 and 2014. Subjects under the age of 18 years were excluded. Age, sex, and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were 1: 4 matched for AF patients (N = 1,679) and non-AF controls (N = 6,176) using the propensity score technique. The conditional Cox regression model and competing risk analysis were applied. The risk of mortality was tracked till 2019.

Results

AF history was associated with higher risks of all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.208; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.142–1.277) and cardiovascular death (subdistribution HR: 1.210; 95% CI: 1.077–1.359) in dementia patients than patients without a diagnosis of AF. For patients with both dementia and AF, they had a higher risk of death due to higher age, diabetes mellitus, congestive heart failure, chronic kidney disease, and prior stroke. Anti-arrhythmic drugs and novel oral anticoagulants significantly reduced the risk of death in patients with AF and dementia.

Conclusion

This study found that AF is a risk factor for mortality in patients with dementia and explored several risk factors for AF-related mortality. This study highlights the importance of controlling AF especially in patients with dementia.

A time-dependent subdistribution hazard model for major dental treatment events in cancer patients: a nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Dental care in cancer patients tends to be less prioritized. However, limited research has focused on major dental treatment events in cancer patients after the diagnosis. This study aimed to examine dental treatment delays in cancer patients compared to the general population using a national claims database in South Korea.

METHOD

The Korea National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort version 2.0, collected from 2002 to 2015, was analyzed. Treatment events were considered for stomatitis, tooth loss, dental caries/pulp disease, and gingivitis/periodontal disease. For each considered event, time-dependent hazard ratios and associated 95% confidence intervals were calculated by applying a subdistribution hazard model with time-varying covariates. Mortality was treated as a competing event. Subgroup analyses were conducted by type of cancer.

RESULTS

The time-dependent subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) of stomatitis treatment were greater than 1 in cancer patients in all time intervals, 2.04 within 30 days after cancer diagnosis, and gradually decreased to 1.15 after 5 years. The SHR for tooth loss was less than 0.70 within 3 months after cancer diagnosis and increased to 1 after 5 years. The trends in SHRs of treatment events for other dental diseases were similar to those observed for tooth loss. Subgroup analyses by cancer type suggested that probability of all dental treatment event occurrence was higher in head and neck cancer patients, particularly in the early phase after cancer diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

Apart from treatments that are associated with cancer therapy, dental treatments in cancer patients are generally delayed and cancer patients tend to refrain from dental treatments. Consideration should be given to seeking more active and effective means for oral health promotion in cancer patients.

Impact of Age at Diagnosis on Cardiotoxicity in High-Grade Osteosarcoma and Ewing Sarcoma Patients

Background

Osteosarcoma and Ewing sarcoma patients face a significant risk of cardiotoxicity as defined by left ventricular dysfunction and heart failure (HF).

Objectives

This study sought to evaluate the association between age at sarcoma diagnosis and incident HF.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was performed at the largest sarcoma center in the Netherlands among patients with an osteosarcoma or Ewing sarcoma. All patients were diagnosed and treated over a 36-year period (1982-2018) and followed until August 2021. Incident HF was adjudicated through the universal definition of heart failure. Determinants including age at diagnosis, doxorubicin dose, and cardiovascular risk factors were entered as fixed or time-dependent covariates into a cause-specific Cox model to assess their impact on incident HF.

Results

The study population consisted of 528 patients with a median age at diagnosis of 19 years (Q1-Q3: 15-30 years). Over a median follow-up time of 13.2 years (Q1-Q3: 12.5-14.9 years), 18 patients developed HF with an estimated cumulative incidence of 5.9% (95% CI: 2.8%-9.1%). In a multivariable model, age at diagnosis (HR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.06-1.43) per 5-year increase, doxorubicin dose per 10-mg/m² increase (HR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.03-1.24), and female sex (HR: 3.17; 95% CI: 1.11-9.10) were associated with HF.

Conclusions

In a large cohort of sarcoma patients, we found that patients diagnosed at an older age are more prone to develop HF.

Impact of frailty on early rhythm control outcomes in older adults with atrial fibrillation: A nationwide cohort study

Purpose

Rhythm-control therapy administered early following the initial diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF) has superior cardiovascular outcomes compared to rate-control therapy. Frailty is a key factor in identifying older patients' potential for improvement after rhythm-control therapy. This study evaluated whether frailty affects the outcome of early rhythm-control therapy in older patients with AF.

Methods

From the Korean National Health Insurance Service database (2005-2015), we collected 20,611 populations aged ≥65 years undergoing rhythm- or rate-control therapy initiated within 1 year of AF diagnosis. Participants were emulated by the EAST-AFNET4 trial, and stratified into non-frail, moderately frail, and highly frail groups based on the hospital frailty risk score (HFRS). A composite outcome of cardiovascular-related mortality, myocardial infarction, hospitalization for heart failure, and ischemic stroke was compared between rhythm- and rate-control.

Results

Early rhythm-control strategy showed a 14% lower risk of the primary composite outcome in the non-frail group [weighted incidence 7.3 vs. 8.6 per 100 person-years; hazard ratio (HR) 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79-0.93, p < 0.001] than rate-control strategy. A consistent trend toward a lower risk of early rhythm-control was observed in the moderately frail (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.81-1.02, p = 0.09) and highly frail (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.75-1.17, p = 0.55) groups.

Conclusion

Although the degree attenuated with increasing frailty, the superiority of cardiovascular outcomes of early rhythm-control in AF treatment was maintained without increased risk for safety outcomes. An individualized approach is required on the benefits of early rhythm-control therapy in older patients with AF, regardless of their frailty status.

FLT3-ITD Measurable Residual Disease Monitoring in Acute Myeloid Leukemia Using Next-Generation Sequencing

The in-frame internal tandem duplication (ITD) of the FMS-like tyrosine kinase 3 (FLT3) gene is an important negative prognostic marker in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). FLT3-ITD monitoring is essential for patients at relapse or those receiving FLT3-targeted therapies. Fragment analysis (FA) is commonly used to detect and quantify FLT3-ITDs; however, detecting low-burden FLT3-ITDs after a treatment is challenging. We, therefore, developed a customized, next-generation sequencing (NGS)-based FLT3-ITD assay that includes a new ITD-tracing algorithm, "SEED", optimized for measurable residual disease (MRD) monitoring. NGS-SEED showed an enhanced sensitivity (0.001%) and has a superior performance over conventional fragment analysis. We further investigated the prognostic impact of MRD analyzed by NGS-SEED in AML patients who underwent allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Our assay showed that the MRD assessed before and after HSCT were significantly associated with a risk of relapse and a poor overall survival, respectively, in a time-dependent analysis. Thus, this report highlighted the prognostic value of serial MRD monitoring using a sensitive method in a clinical setting of AML patients with FLT3-ITD.

Competing Risk Analysis of Time to Communal Residence for Elder Orphans

Elder Orphans, socially/physically isolated older adults without caregiving support, are of interest in an aging population. Lack of caregivers for Elder Orphans may influence relocation to residential care facilities, including skilled nursing or assisted living facilities, compared to aging in place. Using the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), Competing Risk Survival Analyses were performed to determine if Elder Orphans or those At Risk for becoming elder orphans had increased risk for residential care relocation over nine NHATS waves (2011-2019). Elder Orphans had significantly higher risk for moving to residential care facilities in unadjusted (SHR = 1.780; p = 0.001) and adjusted (SHR = 1.571; p = 0.043) models. Those At Risk for becoming an elder orphan had significantly decreased risk for residential care residence in unadjusted (SHR = 0.517; p < 0.001) and adjusted (SHR = 0.726; p = 0.037) models. As aging in place becomes prioritized in the US healthcare system, understanding caregiving needs of older adults is vital to their health outcomes.

Statistical considerations for analyses of time-to-event endpoints in oncology clinical trials: Illustrations with CAR-T immunotherapy studies

Chimeric antigen receptor T-cell (CAR-T) therapy is an exciting development in the field of cancer immunology and has received a lot of interest in recent years. Many time-to-event (TTE) endpoints related to relapse, disease progression, and remission are analyzed in CAR-T studies to assess treatment efficacy. Definitions of these TTE endpoints are not always consistent, even for the same outcomes (e.g., progression-free survival), which often stems from analysis choices regarding which events to consider as part of the composite endpoint, censoring or competing risk in the analysis. Subsequent therapies such as hematopoietic stem cell transplantation are common but are not treated the same in different studies. Standard survival analysis methods are commonly applied to TTE analyses but often without full consideration of the assumptions inherent in the chosen analysis. We highlight two important issues of TTE analysis that arise in CAR-T studies, as well as in other settings in oncology: the handling of competing risks and assessing the association between a time-varying (post-infusion) exposure and the TTE outcome. We review existing analytical methods, including the cumulative incidence function and regression models for analysis of competing risks, and landmark and time-varying covariate analysis for analysis of post-infusion exposures. We clarify the scientific questions that the different analytical approaches address and illustrate how the application of an inappropriate method could lead to different results using data from multiple published CAR-T studies. Codes for implementing these methods in standard statistical software are provided.

Fracture risk associated with glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis in Japan

INTRODUCTION

Glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis (GIOP) is associated with elevated fracture risk. Practice guidelines have been published to reduce this risk but are insufficiently followed in everyday practice. The objectives of this study were to estimate fracture incidence in patients exposed to oral glucocorticoids and to analyse the impact of glucocorticoid use on fracture incidence.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was performed using the Medical Data Vision (MDV) claims database from Japan. All patients aged ≥ 18 years initiating oral glucocorticoids and fulfilling Japanese guideline criteria for starting prophylactic osteoporosis treatment between 2009 and 2019 were identified. These were matched to a cohort of unexposed controls using propensity score matching. Fracture incidence in the two cohorts were compared using a Fine-Gray proportional sub-distribution hazard model.

RESULTS

13,090 glucocorticoid-exposed cases were compared to 13,090 unexposed controls. The 1-year fracture rate (all sites) was 9.3 [95% CI 8.8-9.8] in cases and 5.8 [5.4-6.2] in controls. One-year vertebral fracture rates were 4.3 [4.0-4.7] and 2.3 [2.1-2.6] respectively. In the multivariate analysis, the use of glucocorticoids was associated with an increase in the incidence of osteoporotic fractures (hazard ratio: 1.63 [1.51-1.76]). The glucocorticoid-associated risk tended to be higher in subgroups of patients with rheumatoid arthritis, asthma, COPD and in those aged < 65 years.

CONCLUSION

Oral glucocorticoid use is associated with an increase in fracture incidence. It is necessary to raise awareness of GIOP and to take public health measures to change the perceptions and behaviour of doctors prescribing glucocorticoids.

Modelling time-varying covariates effect on survival via functional data analysis: application to the MRC BO06 trial in osteosarcoma

Time-varying covariates are of great interest in clinical research since they represent dynamic patterns which reflect disease progression. In cancer studies biomarkers values change as functions of time and chemotherapy treatment is modified by delaying a course or reducing the dose intensity, according to patient’s toxicity levels. In this work, a Functional covariate Cox Model (FunCM) to study the association between time-varying processes and a time-to-event outcome is proposed. FunCM first exploits functional data analysis techniques to represent time-varying processes in terms of functional data. Then, information related to the evolution of the functions over time is incorporated into functional regression models for survival data through functional principal component analysis. FunCM is compared to a standard time-varying covariate Cox model, commonly used despite its limiting assumptions that covariate values are constant in time and measured without errors. Data from MRC BO06/EORTC 80931 randomised controlled trial for treatment of osteosarcoma are analysed. Time-varying covariates related to alkaline phosphatase levels, white blood cell counts and chemotherapy dose during treatment are investigated. The proposed method allows to detect differences between patients with different biomarkers and treatment evolutions, and to include this information in the survival model. These aspects are seldom addressed in the literature and could provide new insights into the clinical research.

Suicide Deaths Among Women in California Living With Handgun Owners vs Those Living With Other Adults in Handgun-Free Homes, 2004-2016

Importance

Little is known about the extent to which secondhand exposure to household firearms is associated with risk of suicide in adults who do not own guns, most of whom are women.

Objective

To evaluate changes in risk of suicide among women living in gun-free households after one of their cohabitants became a handgun owner.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study observed participants for up to 12 years and 2 months from October 18, 2004, to December 31, 2016. Data were analyzed from April to November 2021. The study population included 9.5 million adult women in California who did not own guns and who entered the study while living with 1 or more adults in a handgun-free home.

Exposures

Secondhand exposure to household handguns.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Suicide, firearm suicide, nonfirearm suicide.

Results

Of 9.5 million women living in handgun-free homes, 331 968 women (3.5% of the study population; mean [SD] age, 41.6 [18.0] years) became exposed to household handguns during the study period. In the entire study population, 294 959 women died: 2197 (1%) of these were by suicide, 337 (15%) of which were suicides by firearm. Rates of suicide by any method during follow-up were higher among cohort members residing with handgun owners compared with those residing in handgun-free homes (hazard ratio, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.11-1.84). The excess suicide rate was accounted for by higher rates of suicide by firearm (hazard ratio, 4.32; 95% CI, 2.89-6.46). Women in households with and without handguns had similar rates of suicide by nonfirearm methods (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.63-1.27).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, the rate of suicide among women was significantly higher after a cohabitant of theirs became a handgun owner compared with the rate observed while they lived in handgun-free homes.

Benzodiazepine Use and Morbidity-Mortality Outcomes in a Geriatric Palliative Care Unit: A Retrospective Review

INTRODUCTION

Patients often experience delirium at the end of life. Benzodiazepine use may be associated with an increased risk of developing delirium. Alternate medications used in conjunction with benzodiazepines may serve as an independent precipitant of delirium. The aim is to understand the role of benzodiazepines in precipitating delirium and advanced mortality in palliative care population at the end of life.

METHODS

A retrospective medical chart review was conducted at a hospice and palliative care inpatient unit between the periods of June 2017-December 2017 and October 2017-November 2018. It included patients in hospice and palliative care inpatient units who received a benzodiazepine and those who did not. Patient characteristics, as well as Palliative Performance Scale score, diagnosis, and occurrence of admission, terminal, and/or recurrent delirium, were collected and analyzed.

RESULTS

Use of a benzodiazepine was not significantly associated with overall mortality nor cause-specific death without terminal delirium rate. However, it was significantly associated with higher cause-specific death with terminal delirium rate and a higher recurrent delirium rate.

DISCUSSION

This retrospective chart review suggests an association between benzodiazepine use and specific states of delirium and cause-specific death. However, it does not provide strong evidence on the use of this drug, especially at the end of life, as it pertains to the overall mortality rate. Suggested is a contextual approach to the use of benzodiazepines and the need to consider Palliative Performance Scale score and goals of care in the administration of this drug at varying periods during patient length of stay.

ToPP: Tumor online prognostic analysis platform for prognostic feature selection and clinical patient subgroup selection

Patients with cancer with different molecular characterization and subtypes result in different response to anticancer therapeutics and survival. To identify features that are associated with prognosis is essential to precision medicine by providing clues for target identification, drug discovery. Here, we developed a tumor online prognostic analysis platform (ToPP) which integrated eight multi-omics features and clinical data from 68 cancer projects. It provides multiple approaches for customized prognostic studies, including 1) Prognostic analysis based on multi-omics features and clinical characteristics; 2) Automatic construction of prognostic model; 3) Pancancer prognostic analysis in multi-omics data; 4) Explore the impact of different levels of feature combinations on patient prognosis; 5) More sophisticated prognostic analysis according to regulatory network. ToPP provides a comprehensive source and easy-to-use interface for tumor prognosis research, with one-stop service of multi-omics, subtyping, and online prognostic modeling. The web server is freely available at http://www.biostatistics.online/topp/index.php.

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ToPP platform integrated eight multi-omics and clinical data from 68 cancer projects

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ToPP provides multi-omics combination and subgroup selection for prognostic analysis

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ToPP provides automatic construction of prognostic model for public and custom data

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Users can perform prognostic analysis based on regulatory network or pathways in ToPP