Climate variability and campylobacter infection: an international study

A systematic review and meta-analysis of ambient temperature and precipitation with infections from five food-borne bacterial pathogens

Studies on climate variables and food pathogens are either pathogen- or region-specific, necessitating a consolidated view on the subject. This study aims to systematically review all studies on the association of ambient temperature and precipitation on the incidence of gastroenteritis and bacteraemia from Salmonella, Shigella, Campylobacter, Vibrio, and Listeria species. PubMed, Ovid MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched up to 9 March 2023. We screened 3,204 articles for eligibility and included 83 studies in the review and three in the meta-analysis. Except for one study on Campylobacter, all showed a positive association between temperature and Salmonella, Shigella, Vibrio sp., and Campylobacter gastroenteritis. Similarly, most of the included studies showed that precipitation was positively associated with these conditions. These positive associations were found regardless of the effect measure chosen. The pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) for the three studies that included bacteraemia from Campylobacter and Salmonella sp. was 1.05 (95 per cent confidence interval (95% CI): 1.03, 1.06) for extreme temperature and 1.09 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.19) for extreme precipitation. If current climate trends continue, our findings suggest these pathogens would increase patient morbidity, the need for hospitalization, and prolonged antibiotic courses.

Exploring the association of weather variability on Campylobacter - A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Previous work has found climate change-induced weather variability is suspected to increase the transmission of enteric pathogens, including Campylobacter, a leading cause of bacterial gastroenteritis. While the relationship between extreme weather events and diarrheal diseases has been documented, the specific impact on Campylobacter infections remains underexplored.

OBJECTIVE

To synthesize the peer-reviewed literature exploring the effect of weather variability on Campylobacter infections in humans.

METHODS

The review included English language, peer-reviewed articles, published up to September 1, 2022 in PubMed, Embase, GEOBASE, Agriculture and Environmental Science Database, and CABI Global Health exploring the effect of an antecedent weather event on human enteric illness caused by Campylobacter (PROSPERO Protocol # 351884). We extracted study information including data sources, methods, summary measures, and effect sizes. Quality and weight of evidence reported was summarized and bias assessed for each article.

RESULTS

After screening 278 articles, 47 articles (34 studies, 13 outbreak reports) were included in the evidence synthesis. Antecedent weather events included precipitation (n = 35), temperature (n = 30), relative humidity (n = 7), sunshine (n = 6), and El Niño and La Niña (n = 3). Reviewed studies demonstrated that increases in precipitation and temperature were correlated with Campylobacter infections under specific conditions, whereas low relative humidity and sunshine were negatively correlated. Articles estimating the effect of animal operations (n = 15) found presence and density of animal operations were significantly associated with infections. However, most of the included articles did not assess confounding by seasonality, presence of animal operations, or describe estimates of risk.

DISCUSSION

This review explores what is known about the influence of weather events on Campylobacter and identifies previously underreported negative associations between low relative humidity and sunshine on Campylobacter infections. Future research should explore pathogen-specific estimates of risk, which can be used to influence public health strategies, improve source attribution and causal pathways, and project disease burden due to climate change.

Spatiotemporal variations in the occurrence of Campylobacter species in the Bloukrans and Swartkops rivers, Eastern Cape, South Africa

An increase in the incidence of Campylobacter species in rivers raises concerns on the safety of river water for humans who get exposed to river water. This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of Campylobacter species in the Bloukrans and Swartkops rivers, analysing patterns of its occurrence in relation to meteorological conditions, physicochemical parameters, seasons, and sampling sites. Physico-chemical parameters and meteorological conditions were measured during water sampling from various sites along the rivers over a year, while Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) was utilised to detect Campylobacter genus-specific genes and selected antibiotic-resistant genes. Campylobacter was detected in 66.67% (Bloukrans River) and 58.33% (Swartkops River). In the Bloukrans River, multi-drug resistance genes cmeA (20%), cmeB (65%), cmeC (10%), were detected while and tetO was detected at 70%. In the Swartkops River, the corresponding prevalence were 28%, 66.67%, 28.56%, and 76%. The study indicates that sampling season did not significantly impact Campylobacter prevalence. However, variation in Campylobacter occurrence exists among different sites along the rivers, reflecting the influence of site proximity to potential contamination sources. The study suggests that Campylobacter infection may be endemic in South Africa, with rivers serving as potential sources of exposure to humans, thereby contributing to the epidemiology of campylobacteriosis.

A mathematical, classical stratification modeling approach to disentangling the impact of weather on infectious diseases: A case study using spatio-temporally disaggregated Campylobacter surveillance data for England and Wales

Disentangling the impact of the weather on transmission of infectious diseases is crucial for health protection, preparedness and prevention. Because weather factors are co-incidental and partly correlated, we have used geography to separate out the impact of individual weather parameters on other seasonal variables using campylobacteriosis as a case study. Campylobacter infections are found worldwide and are the most common bacterial food-borne disease in developed countries, where they exhibit consistent but country specific seasonality. We developed a novel conditional incidence method, based on classical stratification, exploiting the long term, high-resolution, linkage of approximately one-million campylobacteriosis cases over 20 years in England and Wales with local meteorological datasets from diagnostic laboratory locations. The predicted incidence of campylobacteriosis increased by 1 case per million people for every 5° (Celsius) increase in temperature within the range of 8°-15°. Limited association was observed outside that range. There were strong associations with day-length. Cases tended to increase with relative humidity in the region of 75-80%, while the associations with rainfall and wind-speed were weaker. The approach is able to examine multiple factors and model how complex trends arise, e.g. the consistent steep increase in campylobacteriosis in England and Wales in May-June and its spatial variability. This transparent and straightforward approach leads to accurate predictions without relying on regression models and/or postulating specific parameterisations. A key output of the analysis is a thoroughly phenomenological description of the incidence of the disease conditional on specific local weather factors. The study can be crucially important to infer the elusive mechanism of transmission of campylobacteriosis; for instance, by simulating the conditional incidence for a postulated mechanism and compare it with the phenomenological patterns as benchmark. The findings challenge the assumption, commonly made in statistical models, that the transformed mean rate of infection for diseases like campylobacteriosis is a mere additive and combination of the environmental variables.

Epidemic Characteristics, Spatiotemporal Pattern, and Risk Factors of Other Infectious Diarrhea in Fujian Province From 2005 to 2021: Retrospective Analysis

BACKGROUND

Other infectious diarrhea (OID) continues to pose a significant public health threat to all age groups in Fujian Province. There is a need for an in-depth analysis to understand the epidemiological pattern of OID and its associated risk factors in the region.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we aimed to describe the overall epidemic characteristics and spatiotemporal pattern of OID in Fujian Province from 2005 to 2021 and explore the linkage between sociodemographic and environmental factors and the occurrence of OID within the study area.

METHODS

Notification data for OID in Fujian were extracted from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The spatiotemporal pattern of OID was analyzed using Moran index and Kulldorff scan statistics. The seasonality of and short-term impact of meteorological factors on OID were examined using an additive decomposition model and a generalized additive model. Geographical weighted regression and generalized linear mixed model were used to identify potential risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 388,636 OID cases were recorded in Fujian Province from January 2005 to December 2021, with an average annual incidence of 60.3 (SD 16.7) per 100,000 population. Children aged <2 years accounted for 50.7% (196,905/388,636) of all cases. There was a steady increase in OID from 2005 to 2017 and a clear seasonal shift in OID cases from autumn to winter and spring between 2005 and 2020. Higher maximum temperature, atmospheric pressure, humidity, and precipitation were linked to a higher number of deseasonalized OID cases. The spatial and temporal aggregations were concentrated in Zhangzhou City and Xiamen City for 17 study years. Furthermore, the clustered areas exhibited a dynamic spreading trend, expanding from the southernmost Fujian to the southeast and then southward over time. Factors such as densely populated areas with a large <1-year-old population, less economically developed areas, and higher pollution levels contributed to OID cases in Fujian Province.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed a distinct distribution of OID incidence across different population groups, seasons, and regions in Fujian Province. Zhangzhou City and Xiamen City were identified as the major hot spots for OID. Therefore, prevention and control efforts should prioritize these specific hot spots and highly susceptible groups.

Climate and human health: a review of publication trends in the International Journal of Biometeorology

The climate-health nexus is well documented in the field of biometeorology. Since its inception, Biometeorology has in many ways become the umbrella under which much of this collaborative research has been conducted. Whilst a range of review papers have considered the development of biometeorological research and its coverage in this journal, and a few have reviewed the literature on specific diseases, none have focused on the sub-field of climate and health as a whole. Since its first issue in 1957, the International Journal of Biometeorology has published a total of 2183 papers that broadly consider human health and its relationship with climate. In this review, we identify a total of 180 (8.3%, n = 2183) of these papers that specifically focus on the intersection between meteorological variables and specific, named diagnosable diseases, and explore the publication trends thereof. The number of publications on climate and health in the journal increases considerably since 2011. The largest number of publications on the topic was in 2017 (18) followed by 2021 (17). Of the 180 studies conducted, respiratory diseases accounted for 37.2% of the publications, cardiovascular disease 17%, and cerebrovascular disease 11.1%. The literature on climate and health in the journal is dominated by studies from the global North, with a particular focus on Asia and Europe. Only 2.2% and 8.3% of these studies explore empirical evidence from the African continent and South America respectively. These findings highlight the importance of continued research on climate and human health, especially in low- and lower-middle-income countries, the populations of which are more vulnerable to climate-sensitive illnesses.

Campylobacter spp. Prevalence in Santiago, Chile: A Study Based on Molecular Detection in Clinical Stool Samples from 2014 to 2019

Campylobacter spp. is an emerging cause of infectious diarrhea worldwide. In South American countries such as Chile, its prevalence is underestimated due to inadequate detection methods. Gastrointestinal multiplex PCR panels (GMP) permit rapid and sensitive detection of bacterial pathogens and provide important epidemiological information. This study aimed to analyze Campylobacter epidemiology using the results of molecular methods and to compare molecular detection results to those of culture methods. We performed a retrospective, descriptive analysis of Campylobacter spp. detected in clinical stool samples between 2014-2019 by GMP and culture. Within 16,582 specimens examined by GMP, Campylobacter was the most prevalent enteropathogenic bacteria (8.5%), followed by Salmonella spp. (3.9%), Shigella spp./enteroinvasive Escherichia coli (EIEC) (1.9%), and Yersinia enterocolitica (0.8%). The highest Campylobacter prevalence occurred in 2014/2015. Campylobacteriosis affected more males (57.2%) and adults from 19-65 years (47.9%) and showed a bimodal seasonality with summer and winter peaks. In 11,251 routine stool cultures, Campylobacter spp. was detected in 4.6%, mostly C. jejuni (89.6%). Among 4533 samples tested by GMP and culture in parallel, GMP showed a superior sensitivity (99.1% versus 50%, respectively). The study suggests that Campylobacter spp. is the most frequent bacterial enteropathogen in Chile.

Climate change and communicable diseases in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries

A review of the extant literature reveals the extent to which the spread of communicable diseases will be significantly impacted by climate change. Specific research into how this will likely be observed in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is, however, greatly lacking. This report summarises the unique public health challenges faced by the GCC countries in the coming century, and outlines the need for greater investment in public health research and disease surveillance to better forecast the imminent epidemiological landscape. Significant data gaps currently exist regarding vector occurrence, spatial climate measures, and communicable disease case counts in the GCC - presenting an immediate research priority for the region. We outline policy work necessary to strengthen public health interventions, and to facilitate evidence-driven mitigation strategies. Such research will require a transdisciplinary approach, utilising existing cross-border public health initiatives, to ensure that such investigations are well-targeted and effectively communicated.

Effects of Meteo-Climatic Factors on Hospital Admissions for Cardiovascular Diseases in the City of Bari, Southern Italy

The objective of this study was to determine the relationship between weather conditions and hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). The analysed data of CVD hospital admissions were part of the database of the Policlinico Giovanni XXIII of Bari (southern Italy) within a reference period of 4 years (2013-2016). CVD hospital admissions have been aggregated with daily meteorological recordings for the reference time interval. The decomposition of the time series allowed us to filter trend components; consequently, the non-linear exposure-response relationship between hospitalizations and meteo-climatic parameters was modelled with the application of a Distributed Lag Non-linear model (DLNM) without smoothing functions. The relevance of each meteorological variable in the simulation process was determined by means of machine learning feature importance technique. The study employed a Random Forest algorithm to identify the most representative features and their respective importance in predicting the phenomenon. As a result of the process, the mean temperature, maximum temperature, apparent temperature, and relative humidity have been determined to be the most suitable meteorological variables as the best variables for the process simulation. The study examined daily admissions to emergency rooms for cardiovascular diseases. Using a predictive analysis of the time series, an increase in the relative risk associated with colder temperatures was found between 8.3 °C and 10.3 °C. This increase occurred instantly and significantly 0-1 days after the event. The increase in hospitalizations for CVD has been shown to be correlated to high temperatures above 28.6 °C for lag day 5.

Prevalence and concentration of Campylobacter in faeces of dairy cows: A systematic review and meta-analysis

The consumption of raw milk from dairy cows has caused multiple food-borne outbreaks of campylobacteriosis in the European Union (EU) since 2011. Cross-contamination of raw milk through faeces is an important vehicle for transmission of Campylobacter to consumers. This systematic review and meta-analysis, aimed to summarize data on the prevalence and concentration of Campylobacter in faeces of dairy cows. Suitable scientific articles published up to July 2021 were identified through a systematic literature search and subjected to screening and quality assessment. Fifty-three out of 1338 identified studies were eligible for data extraction and 44 were further eligible for meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence was calculated in two different meta-analytic models: a simple model based on one average prevalence estimate per study and a multilevel meta-analytic model that included all prevalence outcomes reported in each study (including different subgroups of e.g. health status and age of dairy cows). The results of the two models were significantly different with a pooled prevalence estimate of 29%, 95% CI [23-36%] and 51%, 95% CI [44-57%], respectively. The effect of sub-groups on prevalence were analyzed with a multilevel mixed-effect model which showed a significant effect of the faecal collection methods and Campylobacter species on the prevalence. A meta-analysis on concentration data could not be performed due to the limited availability of data. This systematic review highlights important data gaps and limitations in current studies and variation of prevalence outcomes between available studies. The included studies used a variety of methods for sampling, data collection and analysis of Campylobacter that added uncertainty to the pooled prevalence estimates. Nevertheless, the performed meta-analysis improved our understanding of Campylobacter prevalence in faeces of dairy cows and is considered a valuable basis for the further development of quantitative microbiological risk assessment models for Campylobacter in (raw) milk and food products thereof.

Meteorological Factors Affecting Infectious Diarrhea in Different Climate Zones of China

Meteorological factors and the increase in extreme weather events are closely related to the incidence rate of infectious diarrhea. However, few studies have explored whether the impact of the same meteorological factors on the incidence rate of infectious diarrhea in different climate regions has changed and quantified these changes. In this study, the time series fixed-effect Poisson regression model guided by climate was used to quantify the relationships between the incidence rate of various types of infectious diarrhea and meteorological factors in different climate regions of China from 2004 to 2018, with a lag of 0-2 months. In addition, six social factors, including per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population density, number of doctors per 1000 people, proportion of urbanized population, proportion of children aged 0-14 years old, and proportion of elderly over 65 years old, were included in the model for confounding control. Additionally, the intercept of each province in each model was analyzed by a meta-analysis. Four climate regions were considered in this study: tropical monsoon areas, subtropical monsoon areas, temperate areas and alpine plateau areas. The results indicate that the influence of meteorological factors and extreme weather in different climate regions on diverse infectious diarrhea types is distinct. In general, temperature was positively correlated with all infectious diarrhea cases (0.2 ≤ r ≤ 0.6, p < 0.05). After extreme rainfall, the incidence rate of dysentery in alpine plateau area in one month would be reduced by 18.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): -27.8--9.6%). Two months after the period of extreme sunshine duration happened, the incidence of dysentery in the alpine plateau area would increase by 21.9% (95% CI: 15.4-28.4%) in that month, and the incidence rate of typhoid and paratyphoid in the temperate region would increase by 17.2% (95% CI: 15.5-18.9%) in that month. The meta-analysis showed that there is no consistency between different provinces in the same climate region. Our study indicated that meteorological factors and extreme weather in different climate areas had different effects on various types of infectious diarrhea, particularly extreme rainfall and extreme sunshine duration, which will help the government develop disease-specific and location-specific interventions, especially after the occurrence of extreme weather.

Network-wide analysis of the Serosep EntericBio Gastro Panel 2 for the detection of enteric pathogens in Public Health Wales microbiology laboratories

Introduction. A retrospective data analysis of 34 months (spanning 2016-2020) of 961573 diagnostic results obtained before and after nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) implementation, across the Public Health Wales microbiology network.Hypothesis / Gap Statement. This is the first network-wide analysis of the implementation of enteric NAAT in diagnostic microbiology.Aim. To assess the outcome of replacing microscopy and bacterial culture with NAAT as the primary test in the diagnosis of: Campylobacter spp., Salmonella sp., Shigella spp., Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC), Cryptosporidium spp. and Giardia duodenalis infections.Methodology. Following NAAT introduction, bacterial culture was performed as a secondary test, to provide further information from NAAT positive samples for epidemiological purposes. Primary detection rates and overall bacterial culture rates were calculated for each target pathogen using both testing regimes (Stage I) including a comparison of in-patient and out-patient diagnoses (Stage II).Results. Stage I analysis showed that the primary detection rate significantly increased for Campylobacter spp. (P<0.0001), Salmonella sp. (P=0.0151), Shigella spp. (P<0.0001), STEC (P<0.0001), Cryptosporidium spp. (P<0.0001) and Giardia duodenalis (P<0.0001) when using NAAT compared to microscopy or bacterial culture. A significant decrease was seen in the overall rate of Campylobacter spp. isolation by bacterial culture (P<0.0001), whilst other targets remained unaffected. Stage II analysis showed that NAAT positive out-patient samples were more likely to be supplemented by a positive bacterial culture than NAAT positive in-patient samples for Campylobacter spp. (P<0.0001), Salmonella sp. (P=0.0004) and STEC (P=0.0039). However, Shigella spp. was more frequently isolated from NAAT positive in-patient samples (P=0.0005). A notable increase was seen for G. duodenalis detection from in-patient samples (P=0.0002). Reference laboratory data showed the NAAT assay can detect at least 53 serotypes of STEC but may not be able to detect some of the rarer species of Cryptosporidium seen in human infections.Conclusion. The implementation of NAAT has significantly increased the primary detection rate of all target enteric pathogens in Wales and information gleaned previously from direct culture is largely unaffected.

Dairy Cattle Density and Temporal Patterns of Human Campylobacteriosis and Cryptosporidiosis in New Zealand

Public health risks associated with the intensification of dairy farming are an emerging concern. Dairy cattle are a reservoir for a number of pathogens that can cause human illness. This study examined the spatial distribution of dairy cattle density and explored temporal patterns of human campylobacteriosis and cryptosporidiosis notifications in New Zealand from 1997 to 2015. Maps of dairy cattle density were produced, and temporal patterns of disease rates were assessed for urban versus rural areas and for areas with different dairy cattle densities using descriptive temporal analyses. Campylobacteriosis and cryptosporidiosis rates displayed strong seasonal patterns, with highest rates in spring in rural areas and, for campylobacteriosis, summer in urban areas. Increases in rural cases often preceded increases in urban cases. Furthermore, disease rates in areas with higher dairy cattle densities tended to peak before areas with low densities or no dairy cattle. Infected dairy calves may be a direct or indirect source of campylobacteriosis or cryptosporidiosis infection in humans through environmental or occupational exposure routes, including contact with animals or feces, recreational contact with contaminated waterways, and consumption of untreated drinking water. These results have public health implications for populations living, working, or recreating in proximity to dairy farms.

Epidemiology of Campylobacter infections among children of 0–24 months of age in South Africa

Background

Campylobacter spp. are one of the most frequent causes of diarrhoeal disease in humans throughout the world. This study aimed at determining the prevalence and the genotypic distribution of Campylobacter spp. and their association with diarrhoea and child growth in children of less than the age of two in the Limpopo Province of South Africa.

Methods

A total of 4280 diarrheal and non-diarrheal stool samples were collected on a monthly basis from children recruited at birth and followed up to 24 months. All stool samples were screened for the presence Campylobacter antigen using ELISA technique after which CAH 16S primer was used on the positive samples to confirm the presence of Campylobacter. Subsequently, the PCR positive samples were further characterised using species specific primers for Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli.

Results

Campylobacter antigen was detected in 564/4280 (13.2%). Campylobacter was more commonly found in diarrheal stools (20.4%) compared to non-diarrheal stools (12.4%) with a statistically significant difference (χ² = 7.345; p = 0.006). Throughout the year there were two main peaks of Campylobacter infection one in December- January and the second peak in June. The prevalence of Campylobacter increased with the age of the children up to 11 months after which the prevalence decreased. Out of 564 positive ELISA samples, 257 (45.6%) were confirmed to have 16S rRNA gene for Campylobacter spp. Furthermore, C. jejuni was found to be more prevalent (232/257) than C. coli (25/257) with a prevalence of 90.3% and 9.7%, respectively. Both C. jejuni and C. coli were significantly associated with diarrhea with statistical values of (χ² = 22.224; p < 0.001) and (χ² = 81.682; p < 0.001) respectively. Sequences generated from the analysis of hip gene confirmed the PCR positives samples were C. jejuni positive.

Conclusions

This study has delineated a high prevalence of Campylobacter spp. in the study cohort. Moreover, C. jejuni was found to be more prevalent than C. coli both of which were associated with diarrhea. These findings are of clinical and epidemiological significance.

Building climate-sensitive nutrition programmes

The food system and climate are closely interconnected. Although most research has focused on the need to adopt a plant-based diet to help mitigate climate change, there is also an urgent need to examine the effects of climate change on food systems to adapt to climate change. A systems approach can help identify the pathways through which climate influences food systems, thereby ensuring that programmes combating malnutrition take climate into account. Although little is known about how climate considerations are currently incorporated into nutrition programming, climate information services have the potential to help target the delivery of interventions for at-risk populations and reduce climate-related disruption during their implementation. To ensure climate services provide timely information relevant to nutrition programmes, it is important to fill gaps in our knowledge about the influence of climate variability on food supply chains. A proposed roadmap for developing climate-sensitive nutrition programmes recommends: (i) research aimed at achieving a better understanding of the pathways through which climate influences diet and nutrition, including any time lags; (ii) the identification of entry points for climate information into the decision-making process for nutrition programme delivery; and (iii) capacity-building and training programmes to better equip public health practitioners with the knowledge, confidence and motivation to incorporate climate resilience into nutrition programmes. With sustained investment in capacity-building, data collection and analysis, climate information services can be developed to provide the data, analyses and forecasts needed to ensure nutrition programmes target their interventions where and when they are most needed.

Contrasting patterns of temperature related mortality and hospitalization by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in 52 Spanish cities

BACKGROUND

Climate change is a severe public health challenge. Understanding to what extent fatal and non-fatal consequences of specific diseases are associated with temperature may help to improve the effectiveness of preventive public health efforts. This study examines the effects of temperature on deaths and hospital admissions by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, empathizing the difference between mortality and morbidity.

METHODS

Daily counts for mortality and hospital admissions by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were collected for the 52 provincial capital cities in Spain, between 1990 and 2014. The association with temperature in each city was investigated by means of distributed lag non-linear models using quasi-Poisson regression. City-specific exposure-response curves were pooled by multivariate random-effects meta-analysis to obtain countrywide risk estimates of mortality and hospitalizations due to heat and cold, and attributable fractions were computed.

RESULTS

Heat and cold exposure were identified to be associated with increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. Heat was not found to have an impact on hospital admissions. The estimated fraction of mortality attributable to cold was of greater magnitude in hospitalizations (17.5% for cardiovascular and 12.5% for respiratory diseases) compared to deaths (9% and 2.7%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

There were noteworthy differences between temperature-related mortality and hospital admissions regarding cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, hence reinforcing the convenience of cause-specific measures to prevent temperature-related deaths.

Comparison of heat-illness associations estimated with different temperature metrics in the Australian Capital Territory, 2006-2016

While the associations of heat with health outcomes is well researched, there is less consensus on the measures used to define heat exposure and the short-term and delayed impacts of different temperature metrics on health outcomes. We investigate the nonlinear and short-term relationship of three temperature metrics and reported incidence of three gastrointestinal illnesses: salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and cryptosporidiosis in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). We also examine the nonlinear association of these illnesses with extreme heat (5th, 75th, 90th percentile of all heat measures). Generalized linear models with Poisson regression accounting for overdispersion, seasonal and long-term trend, weekly number of outbreaks and rainfall were developed for mean and maximum weekly temperature and the heat stress index (EHI_accl). Bacterial illnesses (salmonellosis and campylobacteriosis) showed an overall positive association with extreme heat (75th and 90th percentile of all three heat measures) and an inverse association with low temperature (5th percentile). The shape of the exposure-response curve across a range of temperatures and the lagged effects varied for each disease. Modelling the short-term and delayed effects of heat using different metrics across a range of illnesses can help identify the most appropriate measure to inform local public health intervention planning for heat-related emergencies.

A Mathematical Modeling Approach to Uncover Factors Influencing the Spread of Campylobacter in a Flock of Broiler-Breeder Chickens

Despite continued efforts to improve biosecurity protocols, Campylobacter continues to be detected in the majority of commercial chicken flocks across Europe. Using an extensive data set of Campylobacter prevalence within a chicken breeder flock for over a year, multiple Bayesian models are presented to explore the dynamics of the spread of Campylobacter in response to seasonal variation, species-specificity, bird health, and total colonization prevalence. These models indicated that birds within the flock varied greatly in their response to bacterial challenge, and that this phenomenon had a large impact on the overall prevalence of different species of Campylobacter. Campylobacter jejuni appeared more frequently in the summer, while Campylobacter coli persisted for a longer duration, amplified by the most susceptible birds in the flock. Our study suggests that strains of Campylobacter that appear most frequently likely possess no demographic advantage, but are instead amplified due to the health of the birds that ingest it.

Small-scaled association between ambient temperature and campylobacteriosis incidence in Germany

Campylobacteriosis is the leading bacterial cause of human diarrheal illness worldwide. Campylobacteriosis incidence exhibits seasonality and has been attributed to ambient temperature. However, the role of ambient temperature on campylobacteriosis remains poorly understood. To examine the impact of ambient temperature on local campylobacteriosis in Germany, weekly incidences on NUTS-3 level were analysed using a novel small-scaled approach, regression and time lags. Campylobacteriosis incidence correlated positively with temperatures between - 5 and 28 °C. The sigmoid regression model estimated an incidence increase of 0.52 per 5 °C temperature rise in the observation period. The weekly average of daily minimum temperature was most significant at a time lag of two weeks and showed the steepest incidence increase of 0.13 per 1 °C temperature increase in a temperature corridor of 5.1 to 12.2 °C. The impact of average minimum temperatures on campylobacteriosis incidence is crucial, likely to be indirect and especially relevant in the recent part of the infection chain. Vectors or human behaviour are presumably more directly linked with temperature than the pathogen's microbiology and should be examined. These variables outweigh the direct temperature-pathogen relationship when the whole chain of infection is considered. In the context of climate change, campylobacteriosis is likely to increase in Germany due to an increased temperature effect.

Campylobacter infections expected to increase due to climate change in Northern Europe

Global climate change is predicted to alter precipitation and temperature patterns across the world, affecting a range of infectious diseases and particularly foodborne infections such as Campylobacter. In this study, we used national surveillance data to analyse the relationship between climate and campylobacteriosis in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden and estimate the impact of climate changes on future disease patterns. We show that Campylobacter incidences are linked to increases in temperature and especially precipitation in the week before illness, suggesting a non-food transmission route. These four countries may experience a doubling of Campylobacter cases by the end of the 2080s, corresponding to around 6,000 excess cases per year caused only by climate changes. Considering the strong worldwide burden of campylobacteriosis, it is important to assess local and regional impacts of climate change in order to initiate timely public health management and adaptation strategies.

Impact of climate change on dysentery: Scientific evidences, uncertainty, modeling and projections

Dysentery is water-borne and food-borne infectious disease and its incidence is sensitive to climate change. Although the impact of climate change on dysentery is being studied in specific areas, a systematic review is lacking. We searched the worldwide literature using three sets of keywords and six databases. We identified and selected 98 studies during 1866-2019 and reviewed the relevant findings. Climate change, including long-term variations in factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity, and short-term variations in extreme weather events, such as floods and drought, mostly had a harmful impact on dysentery incidence. However, some uncertainty over the exact effects of climate factors exists, specifically in the different indexes for the same climate factor, various determinant indexes for different dysentery burdens, and divergent effects for different population groups. These complicate the accurate quantification of such impacts. We generalized two types of methods: sensitivity analysis, used to detect the sensitivity of dysentery to climate change, including Pearson's and Spearman's correlations; and mathematical models, which quantify the impact of climate on dysentery, and include models that examine the associations (including negative binomial regression models) and quantify correlations (including single generalized additive models and mixed models). Projection studies mostly predict disease risks, and some predict disease incidence based on climate models under RCP 4.5. Since some geographic heterogeneity exists in the climate-dysentery relationship, modeling and projection of dysentery incidence on a national or global scale remain challenging. The reviewed results have implications for the present and future. Current research should be extended to select appropriate and robust climate-dysentery models, reasonable disease burden measure, and appropriate climate models and scenarios. We recommend future studies focus on qualitative investigation of the mechanism involved in the impact of climate on dysentery, and accurate projection of dysentery incidence, aided by advancing accuracy of extreme weather forecasting.

Determining the association between fibromyalgia, the gut microbiome and its biomarkers: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

The association between fibromyalgia and irritable bowel syndrome is well-established. Alterations in the composition and diversity of the gut microbiome in irritable bowel syndrome have been reported, however, this association is poorly understood in fibromyalgia. Our aim was to summarise the research reporting on the gastrointestinal microbiome and its biomarkers in people with fibromyalgia.

METHODS

A systematic review of published original research reporting on the gastrointestinal microbiota and its biomarkers in adults with a diagnosis of fibromyalgia was undertaken.

RESULTS

From 4771 studies, 11 met our inclusion criteria and were separated into four main groups: papers reporting Helicobacter pylori; other gut bacterial markers; metabolomics and other biomarkers, which included intestinal permeability and small intestinal bacterial overgrowth.

CONCLUSION

The results suggest there is a paucity of quality research in this area, with indications that the gut microbiota may play a role in fibromyalgia within the emerging field of the gut-musculoskeletal axis. Further investigations into the relationship between the gut microbiota, gut dysfunction and fibromyalgia are warranted.

Anthropogenic landscapes increase Campylobacter jejuni infections in urbanizing banded mongoose (Mungos mungo): A one health approach

Background

Campylobacter is a common, but neglected foodborne-zoonotic pathogen, identified as a growing cause of foodborne disease worldwide. Wildlife and domestic animals are considered important reservoirs, but little is known about pathogen infection dynamics in free-ranging mammalian wildlife particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. In countries like Botswana, there is significant overlap between humans and wildlife, with the human population having one of the highest HIV infection rates in the world, increasing vulnerability to infection.

Methodology/Principal findings

We investigated Campylobacter occurrence in archived human fecal samples (children and adults, n = 122, 2011), feces from free-ranging banded mongooses (Mungos mungo, n = 201), surface water (n = 70), and river sediment samples (n = 81) collected in 2017 from the Chobe District, northern Botswana. Campylobacter spp. was widespread in humans (23.0%, 95% CI 13.9–35.4%), with infections dominantly associated with C. jejuni (82.1%, n = 28, 95% CI 55.1–94.5%). A small number of patients presented with asymptomatic infections (n = 6). While Campylobacter spp. was rare or absent in environmental samples, over half of sampled mongooses tested positive (56%, 95% CI 45.6–65.4%). Across the urban-wilderness continuum, we found significant differences in Campylobacter spp. detection associated with the type of den used by study mongooses. Mongooses utilizing man-made structures as den sites had significantly higher levels of C. jejuni infection (p = 0.019) than mongooses using natural dens. Conversely, mongooses using natural dens had overall higher levels of detection of Campylobacter at the genus level (p = 0.001).

Conclusions

These results suggest that landscape features may have important influences on Campylobacter species exposure and transmission dynamics in wildlife. In particular, data suggest that human-modified landscapes may increase C. jejuni infection, a primarily human pathogen, in banded mongooses. Pathogen circulation and transmission in urbanizing wildlife reservoirs may increase human vulnerability to infection, findings that may have critical implications for both public and animal health in regions where people live in close proximity to wildlife.

Campylobacter infections are increasing worldwide but we still know little about the true burden of disease in the developing world, and even less about the role of wildlife and environmental reservoirs in human exposure and infection. Here we take a one-health approach evaluating Campylobacter infections in humans, banded mongooses (Mungos mungo), and the environment. We found evidence of widespread infection with Campylobacter spp. infecting nearly a quarter of sampled adults and children (23.0%, n = 122, 2011), dominantly with C. jejuni. Banded mongooses live in close association with humans in the area and over half of the animals sampled were found positive for Campylobacter spp. (56%, n = 201, 2017). Infection with C. jejuni was greater among mongooses utilizing human-made structures as den sites than those using natural dens. These data suggest that wildlife utilization of anthropogenic landscapes may increase C. jejuni exposure and infection. In turn, pathogen circulation and transmission in urbanizing wildlife reservoirs may increase human vulnerability to infection, particularly impoverished populations, where greater environmental exposures are expected.

Aggravation of Human Diseases and Climate Change Nexus

For decades, researchers have debated whether climate change has an adverse impact on diseases, especially infectious diseases. They have identified a strong relationship between climate variables and vector's growth, mortality rate, reproduction, and spatiotemporal distribution. Epidemiological data further indicates the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases post every single extreme weather event. Based on studies conducted mostly between 1990-2018, three aspects that resemble the impact of climate change impact on diseases are: (a) emergence and re-emergence of vector-borne diseases, (b) impact of extreme weather events, and (c) social upliftment with education and adaptation. This review mainly examines and discusses the impact of climate change based on scientific evidences in published literature. Humans are highly vulnerable to diseases and other post-catastrophic effects of extreme events, as evidenced in literature. It is high time that human beings understand the adverse impacts of climate change and take proper and sustainable control measures. There is also the important requirement for allocation of effective technologies, maintenance of healthy lifestyles, and public education.

Climate Change Impacts on Waterborne Diseases: Moving Toward Designing Interventions

PURPOSE

Climate change threatens progress achieved in global reductions of infectious disease rates over recent decades. This review summarizes literature on potential impacts of climate change on waterborne diseases, organized around a framework of questions that can be addressed depending on available data.

RECENT FINDINGS

A growing body of evidence suggests that climate change may alter the incidence of waterborne diseases, and diarrheal diseases in particular. Much of the existing work examines historical relationships between weather and diarrhea incidence, with a limited number of studies projecting future disease rates. Some studies take social and ecological factors into account in considerations of historical relationships, but few have done so in projecting future conditions. The field is at a point of transition, toward incorporating social and ecological factors into understanding the relationships between climatic factors and diarrheal diseases and using this information for future projections. The integration of these components helps identify vulnerable populations and prioritize adaptation strategies.

Exploring Campylobacter seasonality across Europe using The European Surveillance System (TESSy), 2008 to 2016

BackgroundCampylobacteriosis is the most commonly reported food-borne infection in the European Union, with an annual number of cases estimated at around 9 million. In many countries, campylobacteriosis has a striking seasonal peak during early/mid-summer. In the early 2000s, several publications reported on campylobacteriosis seasonality across Europe and associations with temperature and precipitation. Subsequently, many European countries have introduced new measures against this food-borne disease.AimTo examine how the seasonality of campylobacteriosis varied across Europe from 2008-16, to explore associations with temperature and precipitation, and to compare these results with previous studies. We also sought to assess the utility of the European Surveillance System TESSy for cross-European seasonal analysis of campylobacteriosis.MethodsWard's Minimum Variance Clustering was used to group countries with similar seasonal patterns of campylobacteriosis. A two-stage multivariate meta-analysis methodology was used to explore associations with temperature and precipitation.ResultsNordic countries had a pronounced seasonal campylobacteriosis peak in mid- to late summer (weeks 29-32), while most other European countries had a less pronounced peak earlier in the year. The United Kingdom, Ireland, Hungary and Slovakia had a slightly earlier peak (week 24). Campylobacteriosis cases were positively associated with temperature and, to a lesser degree, precipitation.ConclusionAcross Europe, the strength and timing of campylobacteriosis peaks have remained similar to those observed previously. In addition, TESSy is a useful resource for cross-European seasonal analysis of infectious diseases such as campylobacteriosis, but its utility depends upon each country's reporting infrastructure.

Seasonality and the effects of weather on Campylobacter infections

Background

Campylobacteriosis is a major public health concern. The weather factors that influence spatial and seasonal distributions are not fully understood.

Methods

To investigate the impacts of temperature and rainfall on Campylobacter infections in England and Wales, cases of Campylobacter were linked to local temperature and rainfall at laboratory postcodes in the 30 days before the specimen date. Methods for investigation included a comparative conditional incidence, wavelet, clustering, and time series analyses.

Results

The increase of Campylobacter infections in the late spring was significantly linked to temperature two weeks before, with an increase in conditional incidence of 0.175 cases per 100,000 per week for weeks 17 to 24; the relationship to temperature was not linear. Generalized structural time series model revealed that changes in temperature accounted for 33.3% of the expected cases of Campylobacteriosis, with an indication of the direction and relevant temperature range. Wavelet analysis showed a strong annual cycle with additional harmonics at four and six months. Cluster analysis showed three clusters of seasonality with geographic similarities representing metropolitan, rural, and other areas.

Conclusions

The association of Campylobacteriosis with temperature is likely to be indirect. High-resolution spatial temporal linkage of weather parameters and cases is important in improving weather associations with infectious diseases. The primary driver of Campylobacter incidence remains to be determined; other avenues, such as insect contamination of chicken flocks through poor biosecurity should be explored.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-3840-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Pathogens, faecal indicators and human-specific microbial source-tracking markers in sewage

The objective of this review is to assess the current state of knowledge of pathogens, general faecal indicators and human-specific microbial source tracking markers in sewage. Most of the microbes present in sewage are from the microbiota of the human gut, including pathogens. Bacteria and viruses are the most abundant groups of microbes in the human gut microbiota. Most reports on this topic show that raw sewage microbiological profiles reflect the human gut microbiota. Human and animal faeces share many commensal microbes as well as pathogens. Faecal-orally transmitted pathogens constitute a serious public health problem that can be minimized through sanitation. Assessing both the sanitation processes and the contribution of sewage to the faecal contamination of water bodies requires knowledge of the content of pathogens in sewage, microbes indicating general faecal contamination and microbes that are only present in human faecal remains, which are known as the human-specific microbial source-tracking (MST) markers. Detection of pathogens would be the ideal option for managing sanitation and determining the microbiological quality of waters contaminated by sewage; but at present, this is neither practical nor feasible in routine testing. Traditionally, faecal indicator bacteria have been used as surrogate indicators of general faecal residues. However, in many water management circumstances, it becomes necessary to detect both the origin of faecal contamination, for which MST is paramount, and live micro-organisms, for which molecular methods are not suitable. The presence and concentrations of pathogens, general faecal indicators and human-specific MST markers most frequently reported in different areas of the world are summarized in this review.

Interrelationships between Multiple Climatic Factors and Incidence of Foodborne Diseases

Climatic factors can affect the incidence of foodborne diseases (FBDs). Moreover, microbial network inference is useful for predicting the interrelationships between the incidence of FBDs and climatic factors. However, the interrelationships between FBD pathogens and most climatic factors are unknown. Using principal component analysis (PCA) and partial correlation coefficient matrices (PCCMs), we determined the intra-ecosystem interrelationship network of the multiple combined effects of 5 climatic factors (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, insolation, and cloudiness) and the monthly incidences of 12 bacterial FBDs. Many FBD pathogens are interrelated with multiple combined factors. Salmonellosis has strong positive interrelationships with Vibrio parahaemolyticus and enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli, and the interrelationships between Staphylococcus aureus/enteropathogenic E. coli/enterotoxigenic E. coli exhibits a typical triangular pattern with the combined effects of all 5 climatic factors. Meanwhile, campylobacteriosis and Clostridium perfringens infections are negatively interrelated with insolation and cloudiness. Enteroinvasive E. coli, Bacillus cereus, Listeria spp., and Yersinia enterocolitica are significantly interrelated with any climatic factor combination. The interrelationships or higher-order interrelationships among these climatic factors play an important role in the incidence of FBDs, although the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Our results will serve as a foundation for more sophisticated models of future FBD patterns with regard to climate change.

Pathogen seasonality and links with weather in England and Wales: a big data time series analysis

Background

Many infectious diseases of public health importance display annual seasonal patterns in their incidence. We aimed to systematically document the seasonality of several human infectious disease pathogens in England and Wales, highlighting those organisms that appear weather-sensitive and therefore may be influenced by climate change in the future.

Methods

Data on infections in England and Wales from 1989 to 2014 were extracted from the Public Health England (PHE) SGSS surveillance database. We conducted a weekly, monthly and quarterly time series analysis of 277 pathogen serotypes. Each organism’s time series was forecasted using the TBATS package in R, with seasonality detected using model fit statistics. Meteorological data hosted on the MEDMI Platform were extracted at a monthly resolution for 2001–2011. The organisms were then clustered by K-means into two groups based on cross correlation coefficients with the weather variables.

Results

Examination of 12.9 million infection episodes found seasonal components in 91/277 (33%) organism serotypes. Salmonella showed seasonal and non-seasonal serotypes. These results were visualised in an online Rshiny application. Seasonal organisms were then clustered into two groups based on their correlations with weather. Group 1 had positive correlations with temperature (max, mean and min), sunshine and vapour pressure and inverse correlations with mean wind speed, relative humidity, ground frost and air frost. Group 2 had the opposite but also slight positive correlations with rainfall (mm, > 1 mm, > 10 mm).

Conclusions

The detection of seasonality in pathogen time series data and the identification of relevant weather predictors can improve forecasting and public health planning. Big data analytics and online visualisation allow the relationship between pathogen incidence and weather patterns to be clarified.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-5931-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Campylobacter in recreational lake water in southern Quebec, Canada: presence, concentration, and association with precipitation and ruminant farm proximity

Campylobacter is an important cause of gastrointestinal illness and exposure to recreational water is one potential source of infection. The objective of this study was to investigate the presence and concentrations of Campylobacter, and determine the influence of agricultural activities and precipitation on their presence, at lake beaches used for water recreation in southern Quebec, Canada. A total of 413 water samples were collected from June to August, from 22 beaches, between 2011 and 2013. The overall proportion of positive water samples was estimated to be 33.9% (95% CI: 27.7, 40.1) for C. jejuni and 49.7% (95% CI: 41.8, 57.6) for Campylobacter spp. The concentrations of both thermotolerant Campylobacter spp. and C. jejuni ranged from 20 to 900 bacteria/L of water. Logistic regressions showed that the presence of C. jejuni and Campylobacter spp. was significantly associated with the year and season. Other significant predictors of C. jejuni, but not Campylobacter spp., included the presence of precipitation the day before sampling and the presence of ruminant farms within a 5 km radius of the beach. The present study provides insights into the risk of Campylobacter presence in recreational lake water for better understanding public health risks.

Incidence of acute diarrheal illness in Chinese communities: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Acute diarrheal illness (ADI) is an important public health problem worldwide. We estimated the morbidity, distribution, and burden of self-reported ADI in China over the last three decades.

METHODS

We used the keywords "diarrhea and morbidity" to identify studies published in Chinese by searching CNKI, WANFANG, Chongqing VIP, and SinoMed. Studies published in English were identified using the keywords "diarrhea, morbidity, and China" to search Pubmed/Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Library Data. All articles published before Dec 31, 2014 were included in the search. Data were extracted and the pooled 2-week incidence rate of ADI was calculated using the fixed-effects or random-effects model according to statistical testing for homogeneity. The incidences of each subgroup (organized by age, location, study period) were also calculated. Publication bias was examined using Begg's test. Data manipulation and statistical analyses were undertaken using R-2.15.1 software.

RESULTS

We estimated that the pooled 2-week prevalence of ADI in China was 2.04% (95% CI: 1.48-2.79) and that the corresponding incidence rate was 0.53 (95% CI: 0.38-0.73) episodes per person-year. The ADI rate was highest among children aged < 5 years (1.43 episodes per person-year), and it was slightly higher in males than in females (0.58 vs 0.52 episodes per person-year). From 1980 to 2012, there was a significant decrease in the incidence of ADI, from 0.82 to 0.48 episodes per person-year, but the ADI incidence was consistent over the last two decades. Additionally, the incidence of ADI was higher in rural areas and in west China and peaked in the summer months.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study indicates that ADI caused a substantial disease burden in China in the last 30 years, especially in rural areas and west China, where sanitation conditions were relatively poor. These findings highlight the importance of further investigation of the specific causes of and effective preventive measures for ADI.

Ambient temperature and age-related notified Campylobacter infection in Israel: A 12-year time series study

BACKGROUND

Campylobacter spp. are the leading cause of foodborne infection worldwide, with a seasonal disease peak that might be affected by temperature increase. We studied the relationship between ambient temperature and weekly notified Campylobacter spp.infections.

METHODS

Data on 29,762 laboratory-confirmed cases of Campylobacter infection for the period, January, 1999 to December, 2010 were retrieved from the Ministry of Health registry. To estimate the association between the number of weekly cases of Campylobacter infection and the national average temperature at lags 0-3 weeks, firstly, we used GAM models, and secondly two-segment piecewise linear Poisson regressions. The effect of temperature was adjusted for seasonality, long-term trends and holidays.

RESULTS

We found a J-shaped relationship between ambient temperature and notified Campylobacter spp.

CASES

For C. jejuni in all ages, the curve below the threshold was constant and the percent increase in cases for 1 °C above a threshold of 27 °C was 15.4% (95%CI: 6.7-24.1%). For ages 3-10 yr and > =26 yr the curve was constant below the threshold and positive above it; the percent increase in cases for 1 °C was 17.7%(95%CI: 6.0-29.4%) and 23.7%(95%CI: 11.6-35.8%), respectively. For ages 0-2 yr the curve was linear with no threshold and the percent increase for 1 °C was 5.1%(95%CI: 2.1-8.1%). For ages 11-25 yr the curve was always constant. Results for C. coli were similar.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that higher temperatures throughout the year affect Campylobacter spp. morbidity, especially in younger children. This should be taken into consideration in public education and health system preparedness for temperature increases as a result of climate change.

Beyond Climate Change and Health: Integrating Broader Environmental Change and Natural Environments for Public Health Protection and Promotion in the UK

Increasingly, the potential short and long-term impacts of climate change on human health and wellbeing are being demonstrated. However, other environmental change factors, particularly relating to the natural environment, need to be taken into account to understand the totality of these interactions and impacts. This paper provides an overview of ongoing research in the Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) on Environmental Change and Health, particularly around the positive and negative effects of the natural environment on human health and well-being and primarily within a UK context. In addition to exploring the potential increasing risks to human health from water-borne and vector-borne diseases and from exposure to aeroallergens such as pollen, this paper also demonstrates the potential opportunities and co-benefits to human physical and mental health from interacting with the natural environment. The involvement of a Health and Environment Public Engagement (HEPE) group as a public forum of “critical friends” has proven useful for prioritising and exploring some of this research; such public involvement is essential to minimise public health risks and maximise the benefits which are identified from this research into environmental change and human health. Research gaps are identified and recommendations made for future research into the risks, benefits and potential opportunities of climate and other environmental change on human and planetary health.

A comparison of weather variables linked to infectious disease patterns using laboratory addresses and patient residence addresses

BACKGROUND

To understand the impact of weather on infectious diseases, information on weather parameters at patient locations is needed, but this is not always accessible due to confidentiality or data availability. Weather parameters at nearby locations are often used as a proxy, but the accuracy of this practice is not known.

METHODS

Daily Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium cases across England and Wales were linked to local temperature and rainfall at the residence postcodes of the patients and at the corresponding postcodes of the laboratory where the patient's specimen was tested. The paired values of daily rainfall and temperature for the laboratory versus residence postcodes were interpolated from weather station data, and the results were analysed for agreement using linear regression. We also assessed potential dependency of the findings on the relative geographic distance between the patient's residence and the laboratory.

RESULTS

There was significant and strong agreement between the daily values of rainfall and temperature at diagnostic laboratories with the values at the patient residence postcodes for samples containing the pathogens Campylobacter or Cryptosporidium. For rainfall, the R-squared was 0.96 for the former and 0.97 for the latter, and for maximum daily temperature, the R-squared was 0.99 for both. The overall mean distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was 11.9 km; however, the distribution of these distances exhibited a heavy tail, with some rare situations where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was larger than 500 km. These large distances impact the distributions of the weather variable discrepancies (i.e. the differences between weather parameters estimated at patient residence postcodes and those at laboratory postcodes), with discrepancies up to ±10 °C for the minimum and maximum temperature and 20 mm for rainfall. Nevertheless, the distributions of discrepancies (estimated separately for minimum and maximum temperature and rainfall), based on the cases where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was within 20 km, still exhibited tails somewhat longer than the corresponding exponential fits suggesting modest small scale variations in temperature and rainfall.

CONCLUSION

The findings confirm that, for the purposes of studying the relationships between meteorological variables and infectious diseases using data based on laboratory postcodes, the weather results are sufficiently similar to justify the use of laboratory postcode as a surrogate for domestic postcode. Exclusion of the small percentage of cases where there is a large distance between the residence and the laboratory could increase the precision of estimates, but there are generally strong associations between daily weather parameters at residence and laboratory.

Weather correlates of Campylobacter prevalence in broilers at slaughter under tropical conditions in Sri Lanka

Campylobacter is the primary agent of human bacterial gastroenteritis worldwide. In contrast to temperate zones, weather effects on Campylobacter prevalence in broilers under tropical conditions are under-researched. We examined the association between weather and Campylobacter prevalence in slaughtered broilers in Sri Lanka, a tropical country with weather variations led by monsoons. Each month (October 2009-July 2011), 20-30 broiler batches referring to two semi-automated slaughterhouses from five Sri Lankan provinces were tested for Campylobacter contamination and analysed in relation to temperature, humidity and rainfall. Overall prevalence was 63.8% (95% CI 59.6-67.9%, n = 542), peaking in September-November. Each 1 °C increase in monthly mean temperature up to 26 °C increased Campylobacter-positive batches by 16.4% (95% CI 0.4-35.1%). For each 10 mm increase in monthly total rainfall up to 300 mm, Campylobacter-positive batches increased significantly by 0.8% (0.1-1.5%) at 1-month lag. For each 1% increase in relative humidity up to 80% at 1- and 2-month lags, Campylobacter-positive batches increased of respectively 4.2% (1.9-6.7%) and 4.0% (1.5-6.5), and decreased by 3.6% (2.6-4.6%) and 4.0% (2.6-5.4%) for unit increases above 80%. These results suggest that even in tropical countries without marked seasons, there are weather effects possibly reflecting Campylobacter potential to colonise its preferred host and/or survive in the environment.

Spatio-temporal models to determine association between Campylobacter cases and environment

Background

Campylobacteriosis is a major cause of gastroenteritis in the UK, and although 70% of cases are associated with food sources, the remainder are probably associated with wider environmental exposure.

Methods

In order to investigate wider environmental transmission, we conducted a spatio-temporal analysis of the association of human cases of Campylobacter in the Tyne catchment with weather, climate, hydrology and land use. A hydrological model was used to predict surface-water flow in the Tyne catchment over 5 years. We analysed associations between population-adjusted Campylobacter case rate and environmental factors hypothesized to be important in disease using a two-stage modelling framework. First, we investigated associations between temporal variation in case rate in relation to surface-water flow, temperature, evapotranspiration and rainfall, using linear mixed-effects models. Second, we used the random effects for the first model to quantify how spatial variation in static landscape features of soil and land use impacted on the likely differences between subcatchment associations of case rate with the temporal variables.

Results

Population-adjusted Campylobacter case rates were associated with periods of high predicted surface-water flow, and during above average temperatures. Subcatchments with cattle on stagnogley soils, and to a lesser extent sheep plus cattle grazing, had higher Campylobacter case rates.

Conclusions

Areas of stagnogley soils with mixed livestock grazing may be more vulnerable to both Campylobacter spread and exposure during periods of high rainfall, with resultant increased risk of human cases of the disease.

Combined influence of multiple climatic factors on the incidence of bacterial foodborne diseases

Information regarding the relationship between the incidence of foodborne diseases (FBD) and climatic factors is useful in designing preventive strategies for FBD based on anticipated future climate change. To better predict the effect of climate change on foodborne pathogens, the present study investigated the combined influence of multiple climatic factors on bacterial FBD incidence in South Korea. During 2011-2015, the relationships between 8 climatic factors and the incidences of 13 bacterial FBD, were determined based on inpatient stays, on a monthly basis using the Pearson correlation analyses, multicollinearity tests, principal component analysis (PCA), and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modeling. Of the 8 climatic variables, the combination of temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, insolation, and cloudiness was significantly associated with salmonellosis (P<0.01), vibriosis (P<0.05), and enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157:H7 infection (P<0.01). The combined effects of snowfall, wind speed, duration of sunshine, and cloudiness were not significant for these 3 FBD. Other FBD, including campylobacteriosis, were not significantly associated with any combination of climatic factors. These findings indicate that the relationships between multiple climatic factors and bacterial FBD incidence can be valuable for the development of prediction models for future patterns of diseases in response to changes in climate.

Food-borne disease and climate change in the United Kingdom

This review examined the likely impact of climate change upon food-borne disease in the UK using Campylobacter and Salmonella as example organisms. Campylobacter is an important food-borne disease and an increasing public health threat. There is a reasonable evidence base that the environment and weather play a role in its transmission to humans. However, uncertainty as to the precise mechanisms through which weather affects disease, make it difficult to assess the likely impact of climate change. There are strong positive associations between Salmonella cases and ambient temperature, and a clear understanding of the mechanisms behind this. However, because the incidence of Salmonella disease is declining in the UK, any climate change increases are likely to be small. For both Salmonella and Campylobacter the disease incidence is greatest in older adults and young children. There are many pathways through which climate change may affect food but only a few of these have been rigorously examined. This provides a high degree of uncertainty as to what the impacts of climate change will be. Food is highly controlled at the National and EU level. This provides the UK with resilience to climate change as well as potential to adapt to its consequences but it is unknown whether these are sufficient in the context of a changing climate.

Do contamination of and exposure to chicken meat and water drive the temporal dynamics of Campylobacter cases?

Campylobacteriosis, the most frequent bacterial enteric disease, shows a clear yet unexplained seasonality. The study purpose was to explore the influence of seasonal fluctuation in the contamination of and in the behaviour exposures to two important sources of Campylobacter on the seasonality of campylobacteriosis. Time series analyses were applied to data collected through an integrated surveillance system in Canada in 2005-2010. Data included sporadic, domestically-acquired cases of Campylobacter jejuni infection, contamination of retail chicken meat and of surface water by C. jejuni, and exposure to each source through barbequing and swimming in natural waters. Seasonal patterns were evident for all variables with a peak in summer for human cases and for both exposures, in fall for chicken meat contamination, and in late fall for water contamination. Time series analyses showed that the observed campylobacteriosis summer peak could only be significantly linked to behaviour exposures rather than sources contamination (swimming rather than water contamination and barbequing rather than chicken meat contamination). The results indicate that the observed summer increase in human cases may be more the result of amplification through more frequent risky exposures rather than the result of an increase of the Campylobacter source contamination.

Past, present and future of the climate and human health commission

The following paper presents the history of the Climate and Human Health Commission at the International Society of Biometeorology after more than one decade since its creation. A brief history of the origins of the human biometeorology is revealed through some of the main research topics and publications of the founders of the society in this field. Secondly, it is presented as a brief review of the activities of the commission in the last 10 years, based on the reports that have periodically been submitted by members of the commission to the Bulletin of the society. A summary of the topics of interest on human biometeorology and the most frequent research topics are also described. Thirdly, the need of adapting human biometeorology contents, methods and techniques to a changing world is articulated according to some of the new environmental threats in the XXI century. Finally, a list of future actions and research lines collected through a form from members of the commission is presented. The paper concludes with the existence of great challenge for human biometeorology in order to transform biometeorological knowledge into specific services to improve the wellbeing of human beings.

The effects of ambient temperature and heatwaves on dailyCampylobactercases in Adelaide, Australia, 1990–2012

Campylobacterspp. is a commonly reported food-borne disease with major consequences for morbidity. In conjunction with predicted increases in temperature, proliferation in the survival of microorganisms in hotter environments is expected. This is likely to lead, in turn, to an increase in contamination of food and water and a rise in numbers of cases of infectious gastroenteritis. This study assessed the relationship ofCampylobacterspp. with temperature and heatwaves, in Adelaide, South Australia.

We estimated the effect of (i) maximum temperature and (ii) heatwaves on dailyCampylobactercases during the warm seasons (1 October to 31 March) from 1990 to 2012 using Poisson regression models.

There was no evidence of a substantive effect of maximum temperature per 1 °C rise (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0·995, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0·993–0·997) nor heatwaves (IRR 0·906, 95% CI 0·800–1·026) onCampylobactercases. In relation to heatwave intensity, which is the daily maximum temperature during a heatwave, notifications decreased by 19% within a temperature range of 39–40·9 °C (IRR 0·811, 95% CI 0·692–0·952). We found little evidence of an increase in risk and lack of association betweenCampylobactercases and temperature or heatwaves in the warm seasons. Heatwave intensity may play a role in that notifications decreased with higher temperatures. Further examination of the role of behavioural and environmental factors in an effort to reduce the risk of increasedCampylobactercases is warranted.

Epidemiology of campylobacteriosis in Denmark 2000-2015

Campylobacter is the most frequently occurring cause of bacterial gastroenteritis in Europe. Unlike other zoonotic diseases, European-wide incidences of Campylobacter infections have increased during the past decade, resulting in a significant disease burden. In Denmark, campylobacteriosis is notifiable by laboratory and a unique registration system of electronic transfer and storage of notified Campylobacter cases linked to the national person register of age, gender and geographical location allows collection of comprehensive case data. Using national surveillance data, we describe Campylobacter infections in Denmark from 2000 to 2015, focusing on age-specific incidences, geography, seasonality and outbreaks. During the observed period, a total of 60,725 Campylobacter infections were registered with a mean annual incidence of 69.3 cases/100,000 population. From 2000 to 2014, the incidence of campylobacteriosis decreased by 20%, followed by an apparent increase of 20% from 2014 to 2015. Approximately one-third of cases were travel-related. Incidences were highest in males, young adults aged 20-29 years and children under 5 years of age. Generally, children under 10 years of age living in rural areas were at higher risk of infection. Infection patterns were seasonal with an increase from May to October, peaking in August. Outbreaks were identified each year, including four large waterborne outbreaks which all occurred following heavy rainfall events. For the most part, patterns of Campylobacter infection in Denmark during 2000 to 2015 remained remarkably constant and followed what is known about the disease with respect to demographic, temporal and spatial characteristics. To establish better targeted prevention and control measures, the current knowledge gaps regarding both Campylobacter microbiology (degree of clonal diversity and clustering) and the importance of different risk factors (food versus environment/climate) need to be filled.

A Comparative Exposure Assessment of Campylobacter in Ontario, Canada

To inform source attribution efforts, a comparative exposure assessment was developed to estimate the relative exposure to Campylobacter, the leading bacterial gastrointestinal disease in Canada, for 13 different transmission routes within Ontario, Canada, during the summer. Exposure was quantified with stochastic models at the population level, which incorporated measures of frequency, quantity ingested, prevalence, and concentration, using data from FoodNet Canada surveillance, the peer-reviewed and gray literature, other Ontario data, and data that were specifically collected for this study. Models were run with @Risk software using Monte Carlo simulations. The mean number of cells of Campylobacter ingested per Ontarian per day during the summer, ranked from highest to lowest is as follows: household pets, chicken, living on a farm, raw milk, visiting a farm, recreational water, beef, drinking water, pork, vegetables, seafood, petting zoos, and fruits. The study results identify knowledge gaps for some transmission routes, and indicate that some transmission routes for Campylobacter are underestimated in the current literature, such as household pets and raw milk. Many data gaps were identified for future data collection consideration, especially for the concentration of Campylobacter in all transmission routes.

The campylobacteriosis conundrum - examining the incidence of infection with Campylobacter sp. in Australia, 1998-2013

Campylobacter sp. are a globally significant cause of gastroenteritis. Although rates of infection in Australia are among the highest in the industrialized world, studies describing campylobacteriosis incidence in Australia are lacking. Using national disease notification data between 1998 and 2013 we examined Campylobacter infections by gender, age group, season and state and territory. Negative binomial regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs), including trends by age group over time, with post-estimation commands used to obtain adjusted incidence rates. The incidence rate for males was significantly higher than for females [IRR 1·20, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·18-1·21], while a distinct seasonality was demonstrated with higher rates in both spring (IRR 1·18, 95% CI 1·16-1·20) and summer (IRR 1·17, 95% CI 1·16-1·19). Examination of trends in age-specific incidence over time showed declines in incidence in those aged <40 years combined with contemporaneous increases in older age groups, notably those aged 70-79 years (IRR 1998-2013: 1·75, 95% CI 1·63-1·88). While crude rates continue to be highest in children, our findings suggest the age structure for campylobacteriosis in Australia is changing, carrying significant public health implications for older Australians.

Acute effects of air pollution on enteritis admissions in Xi'an, China

The correlation between enteritis, a common digestive disease, and exposure to ambient air pollutants has not been examined in a comprehensive manner. The aim of this study was to determine whether an association between short-term air pollution exposure and outpatient visits for enteritis in Xi'an, China, occurred using a time-series investigation. Daily baseline data from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2015, were obtained. The overdispersed Poisson generalized additive model was used to analyze the association between air pollutant levels and frequency of enteritis. A total of 12,815 outpatient hospital visits for enteritis were identified. A 10-µg/m³ increase in average concentrations of particulate matter (PM)₁₀, PM_2.5, nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and a 0.1-mg/m³ rise of carbon monoxide (CO) were associated with a significantly elevated number of outpatient visits for enteritis on concurrent days, while ozone (O₃) did not markedly affect the frequency of enteritis clinical visits. There were no significant positive effects between two-pollutant and single-pollutant models. Lag models showed that the most prominent responses occurred on concurrent days. Confounding factors of gender and age played a significant role in the observations. Taken together, data indicate that air pollution may result in enhanced occurrence of enteritis attack.